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Speaker 1: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. Happy Christmas Eve,

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Speaker 1: Straight Fire fans, What is up? It's me Jason McIntyre,

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Speaker 1: Straight Fire for Friday, December twenty four. It's Christmas Eve.

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Speaker 1: I hope y'all are staying in You don't have any

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Speaker 1: last minute shopping to do. Maybe you caught me on

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Speaker 1: the Dan Patrick Show this morning. We got a great

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Speaker 1: podcast ahead. I'll be brief because the forty Niners game

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Speaker 1: got me sick to my stomach. We'll talk about that.

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Speaker 1: Rob g will do a victory lap over Jimmy Garoppolo,

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Speaker 1: just basically shifting his pants on national television. Uh And

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Speaker 1: we got a great guest, Bernie Frado Gambler from Vegas,

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Speaker 1: gonna talk college football playoff uh NFL Week sixteen. And

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Speaker 1: then I've got some best bets. It's a choppy week

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Speaker 1: with the COVID, so I don't have a ton but

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Speaker 1: some good teasers and a college football bet you're gonna

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Speaker 1: love for the bull season. But first we've got to

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Speaker 1: start with the Forts and the Titans. And you know,

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Speaker 1: this is the roller coaster ride that is Jimmy Garoppolo.

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Speaker 1: That's the only way to describe it. He was rolling

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Speaker 1: the last few weeks, no turnovers. Safe football came from

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Speaker 1: behind against the Bengals. Not from behind, but a nice

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Speaker 1: run there in the fourth quarter when the Bengals pushed them,

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Speaker 1: steely demeanor of Jimmy G and he goes into Tennessee.

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Speaker 1: They go up and down the field, touchdown right out

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Speaker 1: of the gate, get the ball back, go right down

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Speaker 1: the field and end zone interception. And it was at

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Speaker 1: that moment that you knew a ship we're in for

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Speaker 1: a long one if you can punch that in there.

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Speaker 1: Touchdown fourteen nothing, even the field, goaltend nothing. It starts

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Speaker 1: to feel like the pressure is on, but you throw

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Speaker 1: the pic and it's like, okay, here we go doors Ajar.

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Speaker 1: Jimmy G rattled and then the rest of the half

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Speaker 1: he just didn't really have it. They go up, tend nothing,

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Speaker 1: They had to a possession that they could do nothing

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Speaker 1: with to try to add to it. And this is

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Speaker 1: when you knew Kyle shann had had it. And this

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Speaker 1: is where, uh, this is before it even got really ugly.

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Speaker 1: End of the half, Niners had a buck twenty and

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Speaker 1: I think they had two time outs and Kyle Shanahan

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Speaker 1: tries a couple of classes and ultimately just decides we're

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Speaker 1: gonna sit on it. And that was a sign where

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Speaker 1: you knew he did not trust his quarterback, and that

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Speaker 1: is scary for the long term prospects of Jimmy G.

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Speaker 1: I have been a Jimmy G rider, die guy. This

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Speaker 1: was not his best performance. But like, you can't totally

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Speaker 1: crown him after one game. You can't after we get

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Speaker 1: the nice five six games stretch. You guys been to

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Speaker 1: a super Bowl. He's not Jared Goff. Okay, he's not

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Speaker 1: Jared Goff. Jimmy G had a bad game and then

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Speaker 1: the third quarter, Titans get a field goal. Jimmy G

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Speaker 1: with an unbelievably bad pick in deep in his own

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Speaker 1: end results in a touchdown by the Titans a few

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Speaker 1: plays later and it's game on now. He did ultimately,

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Speaker 1: uh lead to come back and they score. But this ultimately,

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Speaker 1: you know this is this comes again off as Jimmy

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Speaker 1: G screwed, screwed up. And I know rob Gs sitting

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Speaker 1: there licking his chops, just waiting to get in his

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Speaker 1: jabs at Jimmy Garoppolo um Deebo Samuel by the way,

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Speaker 1: because I know you guys care got me Are you

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Speaker 1: ready for this twenty eight Fantasy points? He was projected

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Speaker 1: for fourteen. I'm facing the number one seed, deebo. I

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Speaker 1: mean the guys at top ten receiving lee. I don't

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Speaker 1: care what anybody says. Unfortunately, A. J. Brown was on

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Speaker 1: the other side of the field and secondary got torched.

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Speaker 1: So Rob you were laughing at Jimmy G. With the

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Speaker 1: rest of America. I don't know about fifty million people

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Speaker 1: watching that game. UM, I don't know what do you

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Speaker 1: wanna do? You want to dance on his grave? You

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Speaker 1: want to ship amount of town? You want to try laouce. No,

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna dance on his grave. I mean he

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Speaker 1: got ripped enough on Twitter. You know. That's the problem

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Speaker 1: with the standalone games is if you do well, everybody

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Speaker 1: crowns you, and if you do poorly, people, you know,

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Speaker 1: jump down your throat. He was bad. I don't think

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Speaker 1: he was as bad as what social media will tell you. Um,

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Speaker 1: this is you know who he is. This This wasn't

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Speaker 1: anything different. This wasn't like a bad Jimmy G game.

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Speaker 1: This was a Jimmy G game. He'll he'll there's spots

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Speaker 1: where you know, when it's wide open and he'll take

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Speaker 1: your pay and he'll start out eight for eight, like

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Speaker 1: I think he did the last night, and then there's

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Speaker 1: spots like how you mentioned in that third quarter where

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Speaker 1: it's the brutal interception or missing a guy wide open

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Speaker 1: which should have been a touchdown and just throwing it

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Speaker 1: out of bounds. It's like that's the Jimmy G experience.

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Speaker 1: And and I will say, if I'm a Niners fan,

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Speaker 1: I would actually be more concerned about Trey Lance than

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Speaker 1: Jimmy G at this point, because you know what Jimmy

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Speaker 1: G is like, he's a game manager who can kind

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Speaker 1: of do a little bit more here and there, but

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Speaker 1: not consistently. And you see games like last night, and

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Speaker 1: you tell yourself, we traded all of this capital for

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Speaker 1: Trey Lance, and he can't do this. He can't hit

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Speaker 1: the schemed wide open wide receiver over the middle, he

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Speaker 1: can't throw it in the vicinity of Great George Kittle

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Speaker 1: and him make a play. Like I would feel less

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Speaker 1: excited right now about Trey Lance, and I would be

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Speaker 1: down on Jimmy G. Interesting, now, it's weird because you

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Speaker 1: mentioned Trey Lance and like I don't I didn't have

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Speaker 1: the broadcast on so I wasn't listening, But did they

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Speaker 1: mention him once during the broadcast? I don't recall, Okay,

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Speaker 1: so I mean, like Jimmy g I thought he cost

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Speaker 1: him the game. I know you're giving him a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a pass. But at the same time, Rob,

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Speaker 1: I do want to point out this defense. I saw

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Speaker 1: this stat The Titans are the first team in the

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Speaker 1: NFL this season with five conversions in a game of

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Speaker 1: third and ten or longer. Basically, Tannehill dropped back and

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Speaker 1: was like, oh, where's a j Brown oh man coverage?

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Speaker 1: Let me just throw it to him, and like the secondary,

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Speaker 1: you know, I don't It's you can't really blame them

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Speaker 1: because it's a bunch of backups and guys who were

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Speaker 1: off the street and Josh freaking Norman, who's I mean,

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Speaker 1: come on, that guy was great like seven years ago.

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Speaker 1: Um So the Niners defense says stinct. But at no

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Speaker 1: point did Trey Lance warm up like Shenahan has not

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Speaker 1: lost confidence And I gotta jog the memory here, Rob,

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Speaker 1: when Alex Smith was the quarterback in casey and Patrick

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Speaker 1: Mahomes was like the understudy waiting. At no point where

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Speaker 1: they're like, well, maybe they should go to Mahomes. I

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Speaker 1: don't remember that at all. But the Chiefs also didn't

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Speaker 1: get as many primetime games as the forty nine, and

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Speaker 1: then it was like, Okay, final week of the season,

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Speaker 1: we'll start Mahomes and then the playoff game. There was

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Speaker 1: never like, Okay, let's play Mahomes. It was like a

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Speaker 1: done deal that we're riding with Alex Smith. Mahomes is

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Speaker 1: next year. I don't even know that it's for sure.

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Speaker 1: Do you think it? That's just like, Hey, we're just

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Speaker 1: gonna do Jimmy G this year and then he's done

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Speaker 1: and we're gonna go to Trey Lance sectors. Do you

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Speaker 1: think that's the case. No, because I think that Jimmy

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Speaker 1: G has a lot of Jordan's love in him, where

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Speaker 1: if he was as good as people hoped he is,

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Speaker 1: he'd already be playing Wait Trey Lancer, Jimmy Gray Lance. Sorry, yeah,

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Speaker 1: because Alex Smith, you know, for all of his shortcomings,

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Speaker 1: he was much better than what Jimmy G is. He

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Speaker 1: He was very solid. He didn't he didn't kill you

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Speaker 1: in games like Jimmy G did last night, like that

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Speaker 1: interception and the third quarter was brutal, and and Alex

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Speaker 1: was not making those kind of plays. Even in that

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Speaker 1: playoff game that they lost, it wasn't necessarily him, it

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Speaker 1: was whatever Marcus Mariota in that second half just went

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Speaker 1: on a tear that nobody saw coming. That's a fair point.

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Speaker 1: I think it was just that Alex Smith was limited

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Speaker 1: with his arm uh and I think he had had

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Speaker 1: some injuries and he just wasn't like as mobile as

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Speaker 1: he used to be. Um. I mean, I want to

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Speaker 1: defend gimmg, but there's really nothing you can say to

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Speaker 1: defend him. It's like, dude, he had a bad game.

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Speaker 1: What are you gonna do? They got the Texas ex week,

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Speaker 1: they should win that, and then they finished with the Rams.

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Speaker 1: But it's not even a locknow that they're going to

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Speaker 1: the playoffs, Rob. I mean, if the the there I said,

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Speaker 1: I think the Vikings win, they're then tied with the Vikings,

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Speaker 1: and if the Eagles win, then they're tied with the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: I do think San Fran beat the Eagles this year.

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Speaker 1: I don't know about the Vikings, but like it's so weird,

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Speaker 1: we're all weeks. San Frands the team you don't want

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Speaker 1: to see in the playoffs. They just faced Tennessee, which Tennessee,

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Speaker 1: by the way, did not look good. Rob It's basically

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Speaker 1: a j Brown and that's it. Their defense didn't even

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Speaker 1: have to do anything on those interceptions. They were just

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Speaker 1: bad throws. I don't know. Maybe I'm overreacting and I'm

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Speaker 1: just disappointed that I loss of money on the Niners.

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Speaker 1: But I don't know. So what's your gut telling you,

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Speaker 1: Jimmy g playoffs are no, yes, because I think Minnesota's

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Speaker 1: gonna fold down the stretch. They're dealing with some you know,

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Speaker 1: COVID issues, which you'll you will get to an interview

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Speaker 1: with Bernie Fratto. Um. I think that they'll find a

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Speaker 1: way to sneak in. And the Niners biggest ission, not

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Speaker 1: that they were bad team, is that the division they

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Speaker 1: play in his brutal. You know, like you you don't

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Speaker 1: have an easy even the Seahawks that we're having a

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Speaker 1: really bad season. It's not like you roll over the

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Speaker 1: Seahawks when you face them. You know, you're still close

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Speaker 1: at least half the game, three quarters of the game.

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Speaker 1: So that's their issue. Alright, folks. Uh, tough one for

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Speaker 1: the Niners, tough one for the bank roll, but at

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Speaker 1: least Deebo Samuel got us a bunch of fantasy points.

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Speaker 1: All right, Without further ado, let's get to our guest,

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Speaker 1: Bernie Fratto. Jason likes to think he knows everything when

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Speaker 1: it comes to sports. I know what sports stands want,

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Speaker 1: but for everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does.

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Speaker 1: Let's just say I know a guy who knows a guy.

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Speaker 1: He knows another guy. All right, let's welcome into straight fire.

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Speaker 1: He's been on it before. I knew him from my

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Speaker 1: radio show. When I bring him in to talk lines

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Speaker 1: college football, NFL, NBA, he would just toss out NBA

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Speaker 1: bets that were winners. Bernie Fraudo, how are you, Bernie? Hey, Jason,

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Speaker 1: really good to be with you again. Happy Holiday's best

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Speaker 1: to you and your family. And Robert, Yeah, best to

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Speaker 1: you as well. Uh, you know you're in rainy Vegas.

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Speaker 1: I'm in rainy southern California. Good day to curl up

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Speaker 1: with a nice book. And it just so happens that

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Speaker 1: you've got one out the view from the cheap Seats.

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Speaker 1: I mean, when I saw Dick Shap's name in there,

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Speaker 1: I was like, oh my, Bernie, that was one of

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Speaker 1: my heroes, Dick Shap. The sports supporters come on, I

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Speaker 1: love that guy. Dick was my mentor. Uh. And I

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Speaker 1: actually had Jeremy on the show. My show is last

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Speaker 1: Saturday Night, but the view from the cheap seats emanates

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Speaker 1: uh uh Jason from a philosophy I've always had, I've

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Speaker 1: always been a sucker for a good story. I think

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Speaker 1: most of us are. But there's an old saying, tell

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Speaker 1: me the truth. I'll believe it sure a fact, and

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Speaker 1: I'll learn it. But give me a great story, and

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Speaker 1: it lives in my heart the rest of my life.

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Speaker 1: And I mentored under Dick Chap. We're very close friends.

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Speaker 1: As a matter of fact. Two days ago, the twenty

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Speaker 1: one was the twentieth anniversary of his passing, so I

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Speaker 1: had Jeremy on on my show. We talked about it

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Speaker 1: because I've known him for twenty five years as well.

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Speaker 1: But Dick told me his favorite sport was people. He

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Speaker 1: didn't run for any teams and rooted for the story.

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Speaker 1: And the truth is, we agreed that the game results uh,

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Speaker 1: and box scores are important, but it's always the back

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Speaker 1: stories that give the sports depth and texture because you

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Speaker 1: hear the results of the game, but you really feel

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Speaker 1: the story. And I think you'd agree, Jason. Stories really

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Speaker 1: entertained people. They inform, they provoked thought, They as a motion,

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Speaker 1: they connect people to each other, and they stoke imagination

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Speaker 1: and the spark curiosity. So the View from the Chief

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Speaker 1: Seats first of all, the titles in homage from my

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Speaker 1: very first radio show that I created back in the lete,

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Speaker 1: t K ten fifty and Arbor and Michigan, which is

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Speaker 1: the still is the flash ship for the Michigan Wolverines.

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Speaker 1: And even though I've been credential for everything I've covered,

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Speaker 1: Super Bowls, Major League Baseball, All Star Game, the World Series,

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Speaker 1: the NBA Finals, you name it, Rose Bowls, I still

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Speaker 1: am like the little kid watching the game from the

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Speaker 1: Chief seats and never quite have lost that thrill. So

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Speaker 1: the book is a compilation of about fifty stories that

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Speaker 1: most people have never heard throughout the years, featuring famous

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Speaker 1: people like Don Shula all the way to the nine

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Speaker 1: Olympic team and everything in between. Wow. Yeah, it's definitely

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Speaker 1: been around nineties six, So you had just missed in

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Speaker 1: an Arbor Us. They were they were three. They got

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Speaker 1: to the finals both years and lost both years. Oh man,

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Speaker 1: I love those guys. That was that was awesome, Like

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Speaker 1: that was that was prime college basketball right the nineties.

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Speaker 1: It feels like Duke was stacked. Uh bat five Kentucky

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Speaker 1: was good. Yeah, it was awesome Yukon with Calhoun. But

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Speaker 1: college basketball following on hard times? Would you agree, Bertie?

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Speaker 1: Like I I barely paid attention to it this season

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Speaker 1: and COVID's destroying it right now? Well, I agree with you. Um,

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Speaker 1: right now it's overshadowed, of course by the NFL and

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Speaker 1: such in college football, But you are right, Jason. It's

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Speaker 1: lost a lot of the panache. It's lost a lot

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Speaker 1: of the Marquis value. Uh. You know, back then you

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Speaker 1: talk about those great teams back in the early nineties,

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Speaker 1: Christian Latner played all four years a right, so how

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Speaker 1: many how many folks say all four years? Now? And

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Speaker 1: it's college You know, I covered the un of you

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Speaker 1: running rebels here for seven years to do a pre

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Speaker 1: and postgame show, Rebel Extra, and it even here at

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Speaker 1: U and l V. It became a way station for

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Speaker 1: guys like Chris Wood and kem Birch to just come

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Speaker 1: to college. But whether they won or not, it didn't

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Speaker 1: really matter, and it was a way station just to

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Speaker 1: get to the NBA. Yeah, it's tough. It's tough to

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Speaker 1: root for a guy who stopped by for one year,

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Speaker 1: and technically it's not even a year, right, Bernie. It's

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Speaker 1: like he's essentially there for the basketball season, and then

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Speaker 1: it ends you're not going to class after that. There's

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Speaker 1: really no connection to the players. And then they and

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Speaker 1: everybody on social media ends up mocking the guys who

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Speaker 1: stayed for four years. They're like, oh, he's an eight

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Speaker 1: year senior. It's like, come on, man, that's good. Like,

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Speaker 1: I don't know about you. I was doing no rush

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Speaker 1: to leave college. I loved it. I gotta fill fifth year.

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Speaker 1: Uh milk that out of my parents. By you know,

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Speaker 1: I transferred school, so I lost some credits, but I

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Speaker 1: was like, come on, I need I gotta stay around campus.

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Speaker 1: It was awesome the fifth year. But um, all right, Bernie,

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Speaker 1: let's get to you know, you covered Michigan. I want

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Speaker 1: to ask you before we get to the NFL. You know,

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Speaker 1: in your book, I'm sure there was some good times

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Speaker 1: covering Michigan football. I would say, Jim Harball getting to

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Speaker 1: the playoff is probably their biggest highlight this century. Is

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Speaker 1: that a stretch or no? No? I think that's fair.

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Speaker 1: Their last Big Ten championship with two thousand four under

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Speaker 1: Lloyd Carr, and they did have a sort of a

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Speaker 1: de facto national championship in ninety seven. They shared it

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Speaker 1: with Nebraska. That was the Charles Woodson team. Yeah, but yeah,

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Speaker 1: in this century has not been great for Michigan football.

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Speaker 1: Lloyd Carr was solid, but they ran him out on

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Speaker 1: a rail and O seven. That was followed by rich Rod,

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Speaker 1: then Brady and then when Harback came in. Let's face it,

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Speaker 1: you got hired in December. He was hired to do

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Speaker 1: three things. Beat Ohio State, but you hadn't done when

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Speaker 1: the Big Ten, which you hadn't done, and get to

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Speaker 1: the playoff that you hadn't done. So they're exercising a

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Speaker 1: lot of demons this year and they're very happy in

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Speaker 1: ann Arbor, although I do think they're gonna have a

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Speaker 1: real come up. It's against Georgia. Yeah, I was gonna

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Speaker 1: ask you about that game. I'm trying to look for

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Speaker 1: a line on it. Is it still seven seven and

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Speaker 1: a half, seven and a half, having and wearing a shop.

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Speaker 1: I've seen eights. I've even seen a couple of nines

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Speaker 1: out there. But the cons this line is about seven

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Speaker 1: and a half of the money has come in on

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Speaker 1: Michigan and it's public money, which, as you all know, Jason,

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Speaker 1: when the public dog is prevalent, it's usually good for

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Speaker 1: the sports books. Yeah. I said it right after the

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Speaker 1: the show whatever that show was on the Sunday, which

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Speaker 1: was like eight minutes long, and then of course NFL

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Speaker 1: just steam rolls it. But Georgia has to be the

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Speaker 1: site here. I know, you like Michigan, and everybody's like, well,

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Speaker 1: they beat Ohio State and they crushed Iowa in the

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Speaker 1: in the um you know, the Big Ten Championship, and

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Speaker 1: of course you know Georgia. Geez, they got smoked by Alabama.

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Speaker 1: You gotta go Michigan. No, And this is the guy's thinking,

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Speaker 1: like bet what you just saw, right, And that's why

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Speaker 1: the public is overwhelmingly coming in on Michigan. But I

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Speaker 1: think we were both an agreement on Georgia. But what

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Speaker 1: about that other game? Cincinnati Alabama? A little tricky. It's

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Speaker 1: come off the fourteen, which kind of surprised me. I

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Speaker 1: can't pack Cincinnati a thirteen and a half. That's no

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Speaker 1: disrespect onceo. Whatever Alabama did, Oklahoma, Carler Murray to your um,

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Speaker 1: I will probably hold my nose and layen number. I

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Speaker 1: have ultimate respect for Cincinnati, but I just think over

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Speaker 1: four quarters, they're gonna see a little bit different. They're

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Speaker 1: stepping way up in class. And you put Nick Saban

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Speaker 1: in games like this. This is where he lives, Isn't

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Speaker 1: it funny? Like what forty eight hours before George Alabama?

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Speaker 1: It was like, is Alabama gonna make the playoff? Can

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Speaker 1: they make it with a loss? Of course, the game happens. Oh,

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Speaker 1: they're the favorite. They should be two touchdown favorites over Cincinnati,

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Speaker 1: and now they're gonna win the title. I really want

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Speaker 1: to make a case, but you're right, Bernie. I remember

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Speaker 1: stepping on Michigan State that defense and run the ball

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Speaker 1: and Connor Cook and nothing over at a quarter. You know, well,

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Speaker 1: I will tell you, uh, you know, you defind the

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Speaker 1: moment of the moment definds you. And Obama was getting

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Speaker 1: six points. I said, is this a miss prank? I

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Speaker 1: had one of my biggest banks of the year the

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Speaker 1: last yeah, ninety two straight games. Stephen was the favorite.

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Speaker 1: The last time he was an underdog was coincidentally at

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Speaker 1: Georgia in October, catching one and a half and then

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Speaker 1: won thirty eight to ten. You got a spirit, desperate

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Speaker 1: Alabama team who's very good. Clearly what happened the week

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Speaker 1: before at Auburn. They're human, they were looking ahead. That's

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Speaker 1: what n year olds do. But you're gonna see a

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Speaker 1: very I think, focused, angry, physical Georgia team with the

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Speaker 1: front seven of the likes Michigan has not seen all year.

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Speaker 1: Michigan stock and traders to run, run, run between the tackles,

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Speaker 1: they're not going to be able to and they don't

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Speaker 1: have the kind of dynamic wide receivers and quarterback that

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Speaker 1: Alabama had to stretch the field that way. Hardboy doesn't

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Speaker 1: want to throw the ball, only wants to throw the

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Speaker 1: ball after he sucked in the linebackers and the run

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Speaker 1: has has opened up passing lanes. Right, not gonna be

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Speaker 1: the same thing. Michigan put handing that number and I

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Speaker 1: feel like it's Georgia by ten, ten to thirteen. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'm in agreement. Let me just put this out there

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Speaker 1: before we get the NFL. The Kid Gardner Sauce Gardner

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Speaker 1: for Cincinnati best cornerback in the country, hasn't given up

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Speaker 1: a touchdown in his career, and I know he plays

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Speaker 1: in a lesser division. But with Mechi out for Alabama

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Speaker 1: got injured into Georgia game, he won't play. That basically

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Speaker 1: leaves the other kid, the superstar receiver, Jamison Um Jamison Williams,

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Speaker 1: I believe the Ohio State transfer. So he's going up

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Speaker 1: against Gardner. And again it is Bryce Young in a

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Speaker 1: game where he's had a month off, you know, massive spotlight.

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Speaker 1: And if they're able to, Gardner is able to take

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Speaker 1: away Williams. And that's tough to say because Williams is

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Speaker 1: the first round pick. I just wonder if maybe there's

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Speaker 1: a case to be made for since. But again, going

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Speaker 1: against Nick Saban when he's had a month prepare for

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Speaker 1: anybody is really idiotic, right that? And I think football

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Speaker 1: is a game of attrition. And over the three hour period,

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Speaker 1: slowly but surely, Bama's depth, Bama speed, Bama's experienced, Bama's physicality,

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be just be it's gonna be a slow burn.

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Speaker 1: It'll just be too much for Cincinnati. Fox Sports Radio

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Speaker 1: has the best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch

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00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:48,600
Speaker 1: all of our shows at Fox sports Radio dot com

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Speaker 1: and within the I Heart Radio app. Search f s

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Speaker 1: R to listen live. All right, let's get to the

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Speaker 1: NFL and Bernie, you're a big Detroit Lions guy. I

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Speaker 1: think when we talked earlier, uh this season, they might

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Speaker 1: have been like oh and five or headed toward potentially

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Speaker 1: oh in seventeen. They've really turned it around with Campbell

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Speaker 1: in recent weeks. But I will say this, the Falcons

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Speaker 1: are one of my bets this week, favored by six.

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Speaker 1: I know, I know that Matt Ryan should not be

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Speaker 1: favored over six by anybody, but I just saw. I

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Speaker 1: saw golf was on the COVID list and the Swift

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Speaker 1: is practicing, but it's unlikely to play Hockinson. He's out.

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Speaker 1: And I just wonder if after that victory this past week,

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Speaker 1: huge blowout of of Arizona, you know, Christmas week, do

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Speaker 1: they lose focus? Last time they gotta win, Bernie, They

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Speaker 1: went out to Denver and Denver just ran all over them.

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Speaker 1: I can see Atlanta coming home to Atlanta. Listen, Atlanta gains.

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Speaker 1: The Niners were right there, three trips inside the ten

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Speaker 1: and zero points because Arthur Smith is doing dumb things

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Speaker 1: against the Niners inside the ten. But this is Detroit.

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Speaker 1: Atlanta has rolled bad teams. Am I dumb? Here? No,

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Speaker 1: where did you get the number, because did you get

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Speaker 1: it in four and a half? I think I have

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Speaker 1: five and then five and a half, but I'm seeing

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Speaker 1: six today. Were right, so fives are dead number five.

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Speaker 1: Yet when you see the six, you start to get

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Speaker 1: a little earia. But let let's unpeel this for a second,

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Speaker 1: because you brought up an excellent point when they got

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Speaker 1: the monkey off their back and they won the game

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Speaker 1: earlier in the year, and then he went to Denver

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Speaker 1: the following week. I don't know how well Paula says

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Speaker 1: it was, but twenty one of the Lions had the flu,

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Speaker 1: and no DeAndre Swift and no t J. Hockenson. As

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Speaker 1: you just pointed out, he's out for the year. The

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Speaker 1: Lions have won two of their last three. Here's the question.

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Speaker 1: You really don't know what kind of line team you're

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Speaker 1: gonna get on the road going to Atlanta, where if

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Speaker 1: Atlanta brings their their best and Lions bring their best,

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Speaker 1: Atlanta should win that game. The question is do they cover?

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Speaker 1: But this is essentially a playoff game for Atlanta. They

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Speaker 1: have to win this game if they want to stay

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Speaker 1: alive in the in the in the playoff race. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: It wouldn't be the worst things in the world if

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Speaker 1: the Lions lost the game, because it would be good

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Speaker 1: for their draft positioning. Be that as it may. They

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Speaker 1: are playing hard under Dan Campbell. They love the guy.

423
00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:01,119
Speaker 1: This is not an act. He's won them over. He's

424
00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:05,160
Speaker 1: he's utterly sincere. He's authentic. And the reason I got

425
00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:07,480
Speaker 1: so fared up against Arizona last week is I was

426
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:10,000
Speaker 1: told by one of the people inside the organization that

427
00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:13,000
Speaker 1: there was a memo circulating that Arizona had put out

428
00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:15,640
Speaker 1: that had their record eleven and five, as if they'd

429
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:17,720
Speaker 1: already played the game, it already won the game, and

430
00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:20,240
Speaker 1: the Lions saw that, and then there was an itinerary

431
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:22,560
Speaker 1: for the following week because Arizona has got a big

432
00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:26,199
Speaker 1: game this week, right Christmas night home against Indianapolis. In

433
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,480
Speaker 1: the memo, they were already looking ahead of that game,

434
00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:30,439
Speaker 1: as if they had beaten the Lions, and they were

435
00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:32,920
Speaker 1: looking ahead. The Lions got ahold that that really ticked

436
00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:34,880
Speaker 1: them off, and they just clicked on all cylinders. Now

437
00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:37,480
Speaker 1: can they do that two weeks in a row? I

438
00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:40,400
Speaker 1: don't know. Probably on the right side. Oh, I love

439
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:42,639
Speaker 1: the look ahead. You know, sometimes it's easy to forget

440
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:44,879
Speaker 1: and Bernie I've noted. You know, I'm in the circuit

441
00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 1: contest and I have had some great runs. And then

442
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:50,600
Speaker 1: as you get to like Thanksgiving in the holidays with

443
00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:53,800
Speaker 1: all the ancillary stuff, it's you get off your game, right,

444
00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:56,200
Speaker 1: You're not doing your same routine every day because you

445
00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:58,879
Speaker 1: know you've got family in town and you holiday stuff

446
00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 1: and you're going to see Christmas light. He's just not

447
00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 1: as sharp. I didn't even notice that last That's a

448
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 1: great find. Are there any sandwich spots that you're aware

449
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 1: of this week as I as I look at the

450
00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:12,199
Speaker 1: schedule tour next week? No, not this week, because this

451
00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:14,680
Speaker 1: week what you're finding are a lot more divisional contest

452
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 1: and finding a lot more games where there are truly

453
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 1: almost defactol playoff games where you win or you're out.

454
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:22,159
Speaker 1: And and that's what we're seeing is that will be

455
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,879
Speaker 1: kind of the recurring theme as we go down the board.

456
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:27,359
Speaker 1: You know, you look at Cleveland, Green Bay, look at tonight,

457
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,399
Speaker 1: San Francisco, at Tennessee, we already mentioned, uh, you know,

458
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:34,320
Speaker 1: Indianapolish at Arizona. You know, you get the rams and

459
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 1: the vikings. That's a playoff game for the Vikings Patriots.

460
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:41,000
Speaker 1: So you're seeing across the board and the buyers are

461
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 1: over now that uh and I like your term sandwich

462
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:46,440
Speaker 1: term and and obviously that does happen, but I don't

463
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 1: think this is the week where that's happening. Yeah, I

464
00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:53,440
Speaker 1: guess maybe Chargers, which is charge I get they visit

465
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:56,480
Speaker 1: Houston and then next week they have Denver, but they

466
00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:58,359
Speaker 1: had that game at home, and it's not like Denver

467
00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 1: is that good. I I forgot who won the first meeting,

468
00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:01,960
Speaker 1: but I want to ask you about the Charger. So

469
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 1: I'm one of the few guys left and survivor twenty

470
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:07,040
Speaker 1: people left, Bernie, I don't have great options this week.

471
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 1: I basically have the Falcons, the Chargers, and the Seahawks.

472
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:12,360
Speaker 1: And obviously with COVID you want to hang around. I mean, heck,

473
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 1: you know, if some major quarterback is out, you gotta

474
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:18,119
Speaker 1: pivot quickly. But where are you on the Chargers? Sounds

475
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:20,359
Speaker 1: like no Bosa for sure because he's not vaccinated, but

476
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 1: Eckler added to the list, You're not down. Basically, if

477
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:26,120
Speaker 1: Herbert's your best player, bos has got to be second

478
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 1: and third. Is there any trepidation going to Houston, which

479
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 1: also has massive COVID issues. Uh, they've got twenty three

480
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:37,160
Speaker 1: guys on the COVID list. Yeah. I think the Chargers

481
00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:39,640
Speaker 1: can name their score in this game. They know that,

482
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:43,680
Speaker 1: they know that they could maybe maybe afford one more loss,

483
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:45,360
Speaker 1: but they got a big game next week. They can't

484
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 1: drop this game. Houston, coming off of win as a

485
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 1: franchise the last three years there one and seven. The

486
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 1: following week, coming off of win straight up and against

487
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:56,880
Speaker 1: the spread, you're gonna be laying eleven. So you've got

488
00:23:56,880 --> 00:24:00,439
Speaker 1: about a ninety six probabilities present probability that the Argers

489
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 1: win that game. I have a lot of respect for

490
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:05,760
Speaker 1: Brandon Stadium, but I think he has to learn that

491
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 1: analytics are a guideline, not an inflexible anchor. And and

492
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:12,120
Speaker 1: he always concerns me. You know, I remember many many

493
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 1: years ago. Listen, they went four it five times and

494
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,159
Speaker 1: made it twice. But the two that bothered me, I

495
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:20,639
Speaker 1: was on the opening drive. Remember many many years ago,

496
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:22,520
Speaker 1: the Rams had a coach, Ram Lavas. He took him

497
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:24,960
Speaker 1: to the Super Bowl one year, got the kickoff, went

498
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 1: down the field, seventeen placed fourth and one kicked the

499
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 1: field goal. The media gave a hard time this is

500
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 1: many minute. This is in the eighties, and he says, listen,

501
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 1: I'll be damn if we're gonna put together a good

502
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:38,200
Speaker 1: drive seventy five yards, take six minutes off the clock,

503
00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:40,760
Speaker 1: and have nothing to show for the first points of

504
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 1: the Game of the Hardest. And I've always believed that

505
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:45,240
Speaker 1: in the NFL, I covered a hundred and sixty lions

506
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:48,160
Speaker 1: pre and post games shows the first game, the first

507
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:50,280
Speaker 1: points of the Game of the Hardest. Then when they

508
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 1: could have made it a two score lead at the

509
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:54,720
Speaker 1: end and they elected not to do it, I don't know, man,

510
00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 1: you can't leave points on the board. Houston is where

511
00:24:57,080 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 1: are you? You've been around the NFL for a while, Bernie.

512
00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:03,520
Speaker 1: So the this analytics debates interesting. I said that, you know,

513
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 1: some of these coaches are drunk on analytics now. They

514
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:08,560
Speaker 1: just want to win the narrative. Hey, they went for it.

515
00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 1: And then all the math guys break out their spreadsheets

516
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:13,440
Speaker 1: and say, look, they did the right thing. And it's like,

517
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:15,920
Speaker 1: you know, in the in the NBA, now you really

518
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:18,080
Speaker 1: want to just win the trade, Bernie. It's like, who

519
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:20,120
Speaker 1: cares if you've got any players? Did you get pick swaps?

520
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 1: You know, did you get two thousand, twenty seven first

521
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 1: round pick, like like that matters, It doesn't mean anything.

522
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:27,760
Speaker 1: And I just some of this stuff. Bernie's killing me.

523
00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 1: I gotta be honest, I'm owing two in these hardball

524
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:33,840
Speaker 1: games where he's going for the win instead of playing

525
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 1: to go to overtime and kick the kick the extra point.

526
00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:38,440
Speaker 1: I just they've they've killed me, and I guess maybe

527
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:41,400
Speaker 1: that's colored my impact on it, but I just it's

528
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 1: I just feel like they're hurting the team when you

529
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 1: you're taking away a chance to win. Now, I'm not

530
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:49,199
Speaker 1: playing the results. I'm just saying, like, why, Well, I

531
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:51,959
Speaker 1: think there needs to be a far more nuanced discussion.

532
00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,119
Speaker 1: I've always said, I understand that analytics have a place.

533
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 1: They told us what happened yesterday, and if you think

534
00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:00,639
Speaker 1: they're gonna tell us what's happening tomorrow, that's based on

535
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:03,760
Speaker 1: a thousand simulations. So Baltimore, mate, say, yeah, we had

536
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:05,679
Speaker 1: a seventy six percent chance to make it into'r ear

537
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:08,879
Speaker 1: based on all our math crunching. But you didn't. Okay, great,

538
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 1: you're telling me the operation was a great success, but

539
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 1: the patient died the light during green So I get

540
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,640
Speaker 1: to walk across the crosswalk and I get run over

541
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 1: by a bus. Yeah, but the light was green. Well,

542
00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:20,639
Speaker 1: you got run over by a bus. What's the moral

543
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 1: of the the story. They've got to be a guideline, not

544
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,360
Speaker 1: an inflexible anc or. Bill Parcels said it best. Bill

545
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:28,680
Speaker 1: Parcels went for it on fourth down more than anybody

546
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 1: back in the day. But he said, hey, I looked

547
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 1: at my matchups, and if I looked across the line

548
00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 1: of scrimmage and Reggie White was there, are probably not

549
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 1: going for it if I don't think I can win

550
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:40,440
Speaker 1: that individual matchip. So there has to be a nuanced conversation.

551
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,440
Speaker 1: It can't be all over one. Jason is John Madden

552
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 1: once said, you can't go on life saying, never mind

553
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:47,680
Speaker 1: the horses blind, just keep loading the car. You've got

554
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:50,119
Speaker 1: to take it as it comes. And and you you,

555
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:52,400
Speaker 1: you are in the right because we have the benefit

556
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 1: of knowing that Hardball lost both those games. Will never

557
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:56,960
Speaker 1: know where to happen if you had gone over time.

558
00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 1: And and what about this idea, you know, it's it's funny.

559
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:02,159
Speaker 1: I don't know if they did this for show, but

560
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:06,160
Speaker 1: the Ravens just happened to have Hardball miked up uh,

561
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 1: for that game against the Packers, and of course they

562
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:10,800
Speaker 1: scored the touchdown, and he goes, what do you guys

563
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:12,119
Speaker 1: want to do? Do you want to go for it?

564
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 1: Like he's coaching, you know, wreck youth league, sixth grade

565
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:17,199
Speaker 1: basketball or something. What do you think the players are

566
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:19,240
Speaker 1: gonna say, no, let's kick the extra point play for over?

567
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 1: Of course not. You know what if he had asked

568
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:23,440
Speaker 1: Justin Tucker, what would have Tucker have said, Oh, let's

569
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 1: go for it. Do you don't need me? I'm one

570
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:26,920
Speaker 1: of the most most reliable kickers in the history of

571
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 1: the sport. I mean, Bernie and I don't want to

572
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 1: go on a tangent, but they had rolled that Packers

573
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 1: defense all day. They punted once, they moved the ball

574
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:37,000
Speaker 1: up and down the field. I just anyways, and I

575
00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:39,240
Speaker 1: thought there was that that was a herclean effort last

576
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:41,840
Speaker 1: week to come back down so many players and to

577
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:43,919
Speaker 1: get that close and have nothing to show for Now

578
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 1: they get to go to Cincinnati with their backs against

579
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:50,040
Speaker 1: the wall. Currently, Baltimore is the number eight seed in

580
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:53,200
Speaker 1: the NFL. So yeah, so they're on the outside looking

581
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:55,360
Speaker 1: and they go to the Bengals is a short favorite

582
00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 1: and there are a trendy player this week. But I

583
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 1: can't back Baltimore this week. I'm not back in Cincinnati either.

584
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 1: I'm being very selective, so smart. Now, I do know

585
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:09,440
Speaker 1: that he's thirteen and six, six against the number as

586
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 1: a divisional road favorite in his career. So we'll see

587
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:16,159
Speaker 1: which real Baltimore and ritual Cincinnati team shows up. But

588
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 1: they got waxed week seven at home. You saw what

589
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:21,920
Speaker 1: happened there when they were six. This is a tough

590
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:24,359
Speaker 1: one because I saw a stat a hardball John harball

591
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 1: in same season rematches, meaning, uh, you know, we lost

592
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 1: the first game eight and oh against his bread now

593
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 1: again actually, oh, okay's tiny sample size, right, it doesn't

594
00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 1: really mean much. But what happens when you've got twenty

595
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 1: three guys on IR? You know? And I don't know? Again,

596
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 1: we're recording this Thursday. Lamar Jackson did not practice Wednesday.

597
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 1: The line went up from two and a half to three.

598
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 1: And guess what, Lamar Jackson no show at practice again

599
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 1: today and now we're seeing Cincinnati three with juice headed

600
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:55,760
Speaker 1: towards three and a half. Tyler Huntley has been a

601
00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 1: great story. He is three and three and o against

602
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 1: the spread. But again more hapes out there on Huntley. Um,

603
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 1: he's not gonna be able to help the secondary at all. Uh,

604
00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 1: they're gonna get torched with all the backups they got.

605
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:09,760
Speaker 1: It just doesn't feel like a good matchup for me.

606
00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:11,720
Speaker 1: I know you said you're passing, but I'm I'm leaning

607
00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:14,960
Speaker 1: since he here fair enough, fair enough gun to my

608
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:18,160
Speaker 1: head their home. Uh, they've Joel Burrow to me, has

609
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 1: been a huge X factor. And you can bring up

610
00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:23,280
Speaker 1: a good point about Tyler Huntley. Why and by the way,

611
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:25,840
Speaker 1: why this guy was even invited to the NFL combine

612
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 1: is beyond me. But he's proven he's got he's got

613
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:30,080
Speaker 1: some junk in his trunk. He can play at the

614
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 1: NFL level. But now they've got him on film and

615
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:35,120
Speaker 1: they're gonna know his tendencies. And Cincinnati has proven the

616
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:36,960
Speaker 1: rise of the occasion every time this year when they

617
00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:42,120
Speaker 1: needed to. Alright, well, two more Indianapolis visits to Arizona, Bernie.

618
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 1: You know the whole look aheadline thing. A lot of

619
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:46,680
Speaker 1: the rookie gamblers who listens, who are just listening and

620
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 1: starting to gamble in the NFL, they don't know that

621
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 1: there's a line put out. Uh. The week prior all

622
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 1: the time called the look aheadline where you can see

623
00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 1: what it was. And guess what Arizona was last week

624
00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:01,920
Speaker 1: minus five, favored by five against Indie. So now Arizona

625
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:05,840
Speaker 1: loses to Detroit your Lions, and Indie takes down mighty

626
00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:08,920
Speaker 1: New England. Uh and in an Island game Saturday night

627
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 1: and lo and behold Uh, Indianapolis is now only a

628
00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 1: one point underdog or pick them. Uh. Five points is

629
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 1: a big swing. I kind of love Arizona here crazy. Yeah,

630
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 1: it's well, no, you've got Jason, this is why you're good.

631
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 1: But this year, contrarian. Let's just unpack some facts about

632
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 1: the game. First of all, there's a little bit of

633
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 1: concern for me and that the Cardinals just allowed Craig

634
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:39,800
Speaker 1: Reynolds on a cutstown state formerly the pride of Andrea

635
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 1: Reid in Buffalo and twelve yards last week. Now they

636
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 1: have to deal with the prowess of Jonathan Taylor. That's

637
00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 1: a little concerning to me. The reason Arizona scuffling in

638
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:51,239
Speaker 1: their last seven games, or three and four straight up

639
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:53,840
Speaker 1: against its bread in their last seven and they're having

640
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 1: a hard time is they forgot how to score in

641
00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:58,440
Speaker 1: the red zone. The first eight weeks of the season,

642
00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:02,360
Speaker 1: they were seventy percent scoring in the red zone. Number one,

643
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 1: they need that back. I don't know why Kyler Murray

644
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 1: forgot to prosecute it off him that could score in

645
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 1: the red zone. They've gotta and all the pressure in

646
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 1: the world is at on Arizona, but they are at home,

647
00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:16,200
Speaker 1: and so in a situation of this nature on a

648
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:19,160
Speaker 1: standalone game of Christmas Night, I think Arizona knows what

649
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:21,320
Speaker 1: they need to do and they do miss T. J.

650
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 1: Watt or J. J. Watt immensely. Yeah, I really believe that.

651
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:28,840
Speaker 1: But you've got to be the uh the contrarian, which

652
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 1: I think you are, and I'm with you. I would

653
00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 1: lean Arizona. You've got to throw the master the obvious

654
00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 1: out the window and believe this team and Cliff Kingsbury

655
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:39,440
Speaker 1: does have enough in their DNA to get this w Yeah.

656
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:42,520
Speaker 1: I like the Colts, but again, let's remember you're you're

657
00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:45,440
Speaker 1: backing Carson Wentz, who is you know, a lot of

658
00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 1: people are like, oh, he's just doing enough. I I

659
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 1: just I'm not buying it. I'm not a huge fan

660
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 1: of his work. And oh, by the way, uh yeah,

661
00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 1: if Kyler Murray wakes up and starts running again like

662
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:57,240
Speaker 1: you alluded to. I mean, I don't know, is he

663
00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:00,080
Speaker 1: still hurt. That can't be the case last year. The

664
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:02,000
Speaker 1: average over six yards to carry this year is like

665
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 1: three point eight. And if you look at Lamar Jackson,

666
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:06,600
Speaker 1: you remember that Monday night game against his Colts defense,

667
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 1: you know, like four hundred yards passing, like a seventy

668
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 1: yards rushing. I think it was five hundred yards total

669
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:14,479
Speaker 1: offense and just killed him like Kyler Murray. Just run around,

670
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 1: be that video game guy, and you should be able

671
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:20,160
Speaker 1: to to roll this team right here. What here's here's

672
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:22,240
Speaker 1: another thing. And I give you top credit. This is

673
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 1: a sharp angle on your part. So you've got you've

674
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:26,920
Speaker 1: got the Cardinals. What what number did you get them at?

675
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 1: I'm we'll pick them. Is that is the best. But

676
00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:31,400
Speaker 1: it looks like they're they're favored by one right now? Right?

677
00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 1: I see one, one and a half. Some shops. Here's

678
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:35,560
Speaker 1: the point. The look ahead line was five. I'm glad

679
00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 1: you brought that up. Every Wednesday here in Las Vegas

680
00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 1: there are two shops, the West Gate and Circa. They

681
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 1: put up the look aheadlines. So for instance, there are

682
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 1: already weeks seventeen lines out there, and that can affect totals,

683
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:48,920
Speaker 1: That can affect lines and sharp guys if they know

684
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:51,440
Speaker 1: where the direction is gonna go, they grabbed the line.

685
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 1: So you got a good price. You got yourself an

686
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:58,680
Speaker 1: excellent price. Here's why it's doubly excellent. You're buying a

687
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:02,479
Speaker 1: good team low and selling against a uh not as

688
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:06,520
Speaker 1: good team frankly High. And I could I didn't reassearch it,

689
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:08,760
Speaker 1: but you could actually go back and see what the

690
00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 1: line would have been back in July, and the original

691
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:15,479
Speaker 1: send offline Betty was much more favorable towards Arizona being

692
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 1: a favorite. My point is you not only have a

693
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 1: good number here, this is a team Arizona that's probably

694
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 1: better than Indianapolis at home. You're getting him, You're getting him.

695
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 1: You're buying a good team low and selling against the

696
00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 1: not as good team High. If if I could stumble out,

697
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 1: you know what I'm trying to say, Yeah, yeah, but

698
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 1: by low cell High perfect Yeah, great business principle. Uh

699
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:40,880
Speaker 1: so Bertie, Uh, I wanted to maybe do Chiefs, but

700
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:43,320
Speaker 1: they've got a lot of COVID issues. Uh. The Saints

701
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:46,880
Speaker 1: obviously are down to Ian book quarterback, but I don't

702
00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 1: know if you started passing my family. They feasted. You know,

703
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:52,520
Speaker 1: they're six and old against the number their last six

704
00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:55,960
Speaker 1: they faced Tyrod Taylor, Joe Flacco, Cam Newton, Mike Lennon,

705
00:33:56,040 --> 00:33:57,920
Speaker 1: Zack Wilson, and you just said it. This week they

706
00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:01,160
Speaker 1: get Ian book. But I think this one, yeah, they're

707
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 1: on the road. I haven't seen the New Orleans defense

708
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:07,280
Speaker 1: COVID list um because I do think a lot of

709
00:34:07,320 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 1: more if you can put him on Wattle. This offense

710
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:12,880
Speaker 1: is really limited. You know, you can't run. Duke Johnson

711
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:14,960
Speaker 1: is not running for a hundred yards against the Saints,

712
00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:16,760
Speaker 1: So I don't know. I think that's gonna be closer.

713
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:19,399
Speaker 1: I'm not I'm not totally afraid of taking the Saints there.

714
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:21,479
Speaker 1: But is there a game you love that you're all over?

715
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 1: Be at? The Cowboys? Is double digit favorites Seattle against Chicago.

716
00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:28,359
Speaker 1: But it sounds like Justin Fields has heard I don't

717
00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:31,080
Speaker 1: know if he's gonna go the NFL. A lot of injuries,

718
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:33,839
Speaker 1: so the intrigue is everywhere any game you love. Yeah,

719
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:36,880
Speaker 1: I got ahold of my nose a little, but I

720
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:41,439
Speaker 1: grabbed Pittsburgh plus ten and only because they the way.

721
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 1: They have just continually battled this year all of a

722
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:46,520
Speaker 1: sudden because the Chiefs have looked so good in their

723
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:50,200
Speaker 1: last six and and there twenty four and three in

724
00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:52,879
Speaker 1: the last eight games of the season the last four years,

725
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 1: so they're playing their best for last. Ten points is

726
00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:58,200
Speaker 1: just too many in this game. Uh. The Steelers are

727
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:00,800
Speaker 1: playing for their life. It's all about motivated. Mike Thomas

728
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 1: never had a losing season. I could see that line

729
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:05,200
Speaker 1: being six and a half seven, but you make that

730
00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:07,879
Speaker 1: double digits, and I'm a player in Pittsburgh. Yeah, that's

731
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:10,719
Speaker 1: a good that's a good number. Grab because Kelsey and

732
00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 1: Hill are on the COVID list. If one is back,

733
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:15,840
Speaker 1: there's no way it's close to ten. If both are down,

734
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:18,360
Speaker 1: this is what a field goal. Burnie may maybe less,

735
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:22,279
Speaker 1: it could absolutely they those two guys can move on

736
00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:24,880
Speaker 1: line a lot. Uh. I'd like to ask your opinion

737
00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:27,719
Speaker 1: on the game, Jason. In all seriousness, the Rams are

738
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:32,680
Speaker 1: laying three at Minnesota and the Vikings. Well, let me

739
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:36,919
Speaker 1: without going through all the analysis. I'm not a fan

740
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:39,440
Speaker 1: of Mats Stafford ever Land points on the road, and

741
00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:43,279
Speaker 1: I think that's a conversation for a different day. But

742
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:47,360
Speaker 1: this is a. This is a Vikings team in Dalvin

743
00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:49,319
Speaker 1: cook is now on the on the COVID list. It

744
00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 1: seems like they're being overlooked here. What are your thoughts? Yeah, yeah,

745
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 1: you know, I have this. I do this gambling show

746
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:57,920
Speaker 1: for Fox, and in my notes on this game, Vikings

747
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 1: play up to their competition day. Beat the Ravens, they

748
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:03,520
Speaker 1: beat the Chargers, they beat the Packers. Don't tell me

749
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:05,280
Speaker 1: about don't tell me about what it was like against

750
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:08,800
Speaker 1: the Lions, because for whatever reason, the Lions bear. Zimmer

751
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 1: doesn't care. He just three yards in the cloud of dust.

752
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:14,600
Speaker 1: His team's not up for it. He's almost like, uh,

753
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 1: like a Mike Tomlin if you will, where Mike Tomlin.

754
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:20,600
Speaker 1: Hey put them in an underdog spot and Pittsburgh is

755
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 1: feisty as hell. I mean, Zimmer is an underdog five

756
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:26,359
Speaker 1: and two this season. I do wonder Dalvin cook out

757
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 1: is feeling a go Have you seen anything on that.

758
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:33,880
Speaker 1: I just heard that he was in provid COVID protocol today,

759
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:36,080
Speaker 1: but it is the only Thursday. Maybe if he has

760
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 1: a couple of positive negative tests or something. But the

761
00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:43,680
Speaker 1: Vikings can beat the Rams with either one. They've been

762
00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:46,840
Speaker 1: their own worst enemy. Missfield goals, you know, turnovers in

763
00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:50,359
Speaker 1: opportune times. Typically an NFL game comes down to five

764
00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:52,759
Speaker 1: crucial plays, and the Vikings seem to be on the

765
00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 1: wrong sunide of those. One final game, I did fire

766
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:57,959
Speaker 1: on this. I did grab the New York Giants plus

767
00:36:58,000 --> 00:37:01,759
Speaker 1: ten against the Eagles. Now here's what's interesting is they've

768
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:04,399
Speaker 1: been the Giants had been pretty good as a road

769
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:07,839
Speaker 1: dog the last five years. And talk about a home

770
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:11,640
Speaker 1: field disadvantage just blew me away last week, do you know, Jason,

771
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:16,160
Speaker 1: since at home the Giants have played thirty one home

772
00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:19,520
Speaker 1: games one only ten outright there, ten and twenty one

773
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:22,799
Speaker 1: straight against up in thirty one home games, and that's

774
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 1: the home field disadvantage. And even they even had free

775
00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 1: medium soda Sunday last week, not not large soda, not

776
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:35,759
Speaker 1: extra large, free medium soda. And the best I can tell,

777
00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 1: they're undefeated the week following free medium soda Saturday. So yeah,

778
00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:42,800
Speaker 1: of course, but that's just that's a lot of points

779
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:45,000
Speaker 1: in the divisional game this late in the year, and

780
00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:46,680
Speaker 1: I'm you know, I'm looking at the value. It's a

781
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:48,719
Speaker 1: short week, re member, the Eagles had to play a

782
00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 1: Tuesday night game, and the Eagles are very erratic, So

783
00:37:52,360 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 1: I think I think that game is actually closer than

784
00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:58,200
Speaker 1: people realize. Interesting, uh, Jake from I think making his

785
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:00,120
Speaker 1: first star right because Glennon is it just a is

786
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:02,960
Speaker 1: but you can't start up. But that's interesting that Syrianni

787
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:05,239
Speaker 1: got COVID right. So what we've seen in the last

788
00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:07,080
Speaker 1: couple of weeks is listen, if a head coach gets it,

789
00:38:07,200 --> 00:38:09,840
Speaker 1: who's he been around a lot, well, his assistant coaches

790
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 1: usually get it. Sometimes his quarterbacks get it. So if

791
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:16,800
Speaker 1: Hurts is if Hurts gets it, you're looking at Gardner Minshew.

792
00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:19,399
Speaker 1: I don't think that's a big drop off, but there's

793
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:21,239
Speaker 1: a chance both of them get it. So this is

794
00:38:21,239 --> 00:38:22,799
Speaker 1: one of those I mean, I like your idea of

795
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:24,480
Speaker 1: grabbing tann. I think I'm gonna probably go there now

796
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:27,799
Speaker 1: and just grab a little taste of tin um. But

797
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:30,239
Speaker 1: I want quick though, to go back to vikings ramsh

798
00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:34,200
Speaker 1: I asked about feeling, because like, if you put Ramsey

799
00:38:34,320 --> 00:38:37,040
Speaker 1: to follow around justin Jefferson, I don't think he'll shut

800
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 1: him down, but he can slow him then and and

801
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:42,400
Speaker 1: Dalman Cook is out then it's what the Alex Madison

802
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:45,600
Speaker 1: Tyler Conklin show. And I just don't trust that Vikings

803
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:48,360
Speaker 1: line like Aaron Donald up the middle. Just nightmares for

804
00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:52,279
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins. I can see that unraveling. What did you

805
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:55,040
Speaker 1: think of cam Akers, by the way, coming off injured reserve?

806
00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:58,399
Speaker 1: Didn't he to Taryn A c l In like August? Yeah,

807
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 1: I thought he was up for the year in August.

808
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:02,640
Speaker 1: That's why they got Sony Michelle. So I I'm a

809
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:05,360
Speaker 1: little baffled by that. Look, it's gonna come down to

810
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:08,160
Speaker 1: the Rams stopping the run, and they're not great against

811
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:10,319
Speaker 1: the run. And I had to be cliche, but it'll

812
00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:13,040
Speaker 1: probably come down to turnovers and and the Rams have

813
00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:15,560
Speaker 1: a pretty tough duty. They're they're still fighting to get

814
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 1: that number one seat. Mathematically they're still alive, right or

815
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:21,760
Speaker 1: not to win their division. But after this, I gotta

816
00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:24,160
Speaker 1: go to Baltimore. They gotta finish up against San Francisco,

817
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:29,279
Speaker 1: who's had In Shanahan's had Sean mcveigh's number. So this

818
00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:32,000
Speaker 1: the Rams got three tough weeks, and I could easily

819
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 1: see them going into Minnesota this week and screwing the pooch.

820
00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:37,800
Speaker 1: Not it would not chuck me either, all right. Bernie

821
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:40,919
Speaker 1: Fratto his book The View from the Cheap seats is out.

822
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:45,160
Speaker 1: Get it hard copy. Uh, Bernie's got a great storyteller. Bernie,

823
00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:46,920
Speaker 1: thanks for taking the time. Happy Holidays to you and

824
00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:49,520
Speaker 1: yours man. As always, thanks for having me, Jason, I

825
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:51,239
Speaker 1: keep up the great word. Merry Christmas to you and

826
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:54,799
Speaker 1: your family. Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk

827
00:39:54,880 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 1: lineup in the nation. Catch all of our shows at

828
00:39:57,600 --> 00:40:00,959
Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio dot com and within the I Heart

829
00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:05,920
Speaker 1: Radio app search f s R to listen live. The

830
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 1: only thing better than sitting on your couch watching the game.

831
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 1: He's making money while you do it. Here's your best

832
00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:20,919
Speaker 1: bat great stuff from Bernie Fratto here on Straight Fire.

833
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 1: I always like Bernie Frotto. Good information, big time information

834
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:27,320
Speaker 1: guy when it comes to the NFL and football and gambling.

835
00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:29,600
Speaker 1: Good stuff. Hope you guys pick up his book. All right,

836
00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:32,560
Speaker 1: let's get to a couple NFL best bets for this weekend.

837
00:40:32,800 --> 00:40:35,160
Speaker 1: Before I do NFL I do want to say something.

838
00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:37,360
Speaker 1: This is a little crazy, but I just want to

839
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:39,759
Speaker 1: put it on your radar. And I know we're not

840
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:41,359
Speaker 1: told doing a lot on bowl season. By the way,

841
00:40:41,360 --> 00:40:44,120
Speaker 1: another Bowl was just canceled. Hawaii has to bail out

842
00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:47,319
Speaker 1: of its bowl. Um COVID you know, bull game bull

843
00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:49,239
Speaker 1: seasons brutal. This year, I barely I don't know if

844
00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:52,279
Speaker 1: I've watched five Bowl plays yet. Um doesn't mean I

845
00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:56,000
Speaker 1: haven't gambled on the games at any rate. SEC now,

846
00:40:56,080 --> 00:40:58,799
Speaker 1: oh and two in bowl games Missouri lost Army. Uh,

847
00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:02,920
Speaker 1: Missouri's best player ended up not playing, and so Army

848
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:04,560
Speaker 1: ended up being a favored by a touchdown, but they

849
00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:08,319
Speaker 1: wont anyway. Army beating an SEC team, Come on, okay,

850
00:41:08,560 --> 00:41:14,800
Speaker 1: and then last night you sef a touchdown underdog rallies

851
00:41:15,400 --> 00:41:20,960
Speaker 1: to whoop Florida. Kind of a beat down, kind of embarrassing.

852
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:23,920
Speaker 1: And these are like major programs are losing to the

853
00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:26,479
Speaker 1: SEC has now gone down to u c F and Army.

854
00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:28,920
Speaker 1: Just let that sink in. I know, motivation matters and

855
00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:31,000
Speaker 1: coaching changes and all that fun stuff. I get that.

856
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:34,000
Speaker 1: I get that, But from a sheer talent perspective, the

857
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:41,480
Speaker 1: SEC probably in both those games had at least fifteen

858
00:41:41,520 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 1: of the twenty best players on the field, maybe maybe

859
00:41:44,040 --> 00:41:46,080
Speaker 1: twenty of the best. I don't know, it's got to

860
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:49,080
Speaker 1: be somewhere close to that, and the SEC lost both

861
00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:51,320
Speaker 1: of them. I did something, and not that crazy, and

862
00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:52,799
Speaker 1: it's not a ton of money, But I went and

863
00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:56,040
Speaker 1: bet Cincinnati money line against Alabama. I'm not saying the

864
00:41:56,080 --> 00:41:58,920
Speaker 1: SEC stinks, but the SEC has not played well in

865
00:41:58,960 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 1: boll season. Okay, this is not some sweeping indictment of

866
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 1: the SEC. I personally don't think Cincinnati will win. We

867
00:42:05,360 --> 00:42:08,320
Speaker 1: touched on it with Bernie. It's easy to talk yourself

868
00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:11,640
Speaker 1: into fading Alabama in the playoff because you've had a

869
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:15,560
Speaker 1: month and you're rooting against Alabama and it's saban and

870
00:42:16,600 --> 00:42:19,600
Speaker 1: I would love for Cincinnati to win. Obviously, I do

871
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:23,160
Speaker 1: have a little bit of money now invested in Cincinnati

872
00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:25,360
Speaker 1: money line just in case. It will make it for

873
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:28,120
Speaker 1: fun and obviously will preview the game in much greater

874
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:30,279
Speaker 1: depth next week. Let's see what happens with the line.

875
00:42:30,320 --> 00:42:32,640
Speaker 1: But all right, let's get to the NFL lines. And

876
00:42:32,680 --> 00:42:36,080
Speaker 1: this is another really tough week. And obviously the Niners

877
00:42:36,120 --> 00:42:38,759
Speaker 1: lost to start the week. Don't feel good about that. Um,

878
00:42:38,880 --> 00:42:41,760
Speaker 1: it felt like it's what right diagnosis? You just can't

879
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:45,440
Speaker 1: really handicap Jimmy g turnovers. I mean it's bad. You know,

880
00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:49,240
Speaker 1: those interceptions were brutal. Um. Also brutal is the COVID situation.

881
00:42:49,320 --> 00:42:53,040
Speaker 1: The New Orleans Saints quarterback room decimated. They are down

882
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:56,680
Speaker 1: to ian book the I think rookie out of Notre Dame.

883
00:42:56,680 --> 00:42:58,640
Speaker 1: Who will be starting a rookie your second year guy?

884
00:42:59,480 --> 00:43:02,600
Speaker 1: Um So now Miami's favored on the road. I'm not

885
00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:06,239
Speaker 1: touching that game. Uh in the contest, I might be

886
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:08,600
Speaker 1: forced to take Dallas. I know it's not gonna be

887
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:10,960
Speaker 1: something I really want to do, but there's not a

888
00:43:11,000 --> 00:43:12,720
Speaker 1: lot on the board, Like what do you do with Denver?

889
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:15,040
Speaker 1: I can't back Drew lock, But at the same time,

890
00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:17,120
Speaker 1: I can't back the Raiders when they don't have Darren Waller.

891
00:43:17,160 --> 00:43:18,720
Speaker 1: I mean, do you see how bad they looked against

892
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:22,000
Speaker 1: half of a Brown's team that was practice squad Guys

893
00:43:22,040 --> 00:43:25,080
Speaker 1: like Nick Mullins nearly beat him. And Denver's got a

894
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:28,160
Speaker 1: much better defense. So I can't touch that game. Kansas

895
00:43:28,200 --> 00:43:31,359
Speaker 1: City in Pittsburgh way too much covid um. Who knows

896
00:43:31,360 --> 00:43:32,920
Speaker 1: who's gonna play in that one? And you gotta get

897
00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:36,319
Speaker 1: the picks in by Saturday around uh noon, uh noon

898
00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:39,160
Speaker 1: Pacific one whatever it is noon or one Pacific, And

899
00:43:39,200 --> 00:43:41,240
Speaker 1: so I don't nothing. There's not gonna be no clarity.

900
00:43:41,280 --> 00:43:43,600
Speaker 1: I want to take the Patriots, but I know what's

901
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:45,520
Speaker 1: gonna happen. Remember the last time I took Bills against

902
00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:48,480
Speaker 1: the Patriots, Patriots win, And I'm gonna take the Patriots

903
00:43:48,480 --> 00:43:49,680
Speaker 1: this time and the Bills will win. That's I can

904
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:52,520
Speaker 1: already see that happening. Jets Jags, No thanks. Jets have

905
00:43:52,520 --> 00:43:54,920
Speaker 1: a million guys on the COVID list. Games come down

906
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:59,560
Speaker 1: to pick, but Jacksonville, no thanks. I really want to

907
00:43:59,600 --> 00:44:02,640
Speaker 1: take the MS, but it feels like every square gambler

908
00:44:02,719 --> 00:44:05,160
Speaker 1: on planet Earth is on the Rams. And you could

909
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:06,799
Speaker 1: just see it open social media and it's like all

910
00:44:06,880 --> 00:44:09,000
Speaker 1: Rams are gonna kill him. No Dalvin Cook, I mean

911
00:44:09,200 --> 00:44:11,800
Speaker 1: they were fine without with Madison and and the Lions

912
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:13,319
Speaker 1: are one of those I'm sorry. The Vikings are one

913
00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:15,799
Speaker 1: of those teams that played down to their opponents, so

914
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:18,040
Speaker 1: when they face the Lions and the Bears, they don't

915
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:19,960
Speaker 1: look good. And then when they have to step up

916
00:44:19,960 --> 00:44:23,160
Speaker 1: in class against say the Packers or the Chargers, they

917
00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:27,279
Speaker 1: look good. So Vikings probably going to scare me off there.

918
00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:29,719
Speaker 1: I really want to take Cincinnati. But that's another one,

919
00:44:29,760 --> 00:44:31,279
Speaker 1: like do you really want to go against some of

920
00:44:31,280 --> 00:44:33,760
Speaker 1: these hardblock trends we talked about in the Bernie Fraudo

921
00:44:33,840 --> 00:44:38,000
Speaker 1: thing like it's tough Atlanta as a team I really

922
00:44:38,000 --> 00:44:42,840
Speaker 1: want to take. But unfortunately, if the Lions, COVID report

923
00:44:42,920 --> 00:44:44,719
Speaker 1: comes up good and Jared Goff is back and a

924
00:44:44,719 --> 00:44:46,920
Speaker 1: bunch of the other guys are back, and Swift actually plays,

925
00:44:47,120 --> 00:44:49,000
Speaker 1: which is a stunner. He was supposed to be shut

926
00:44:49,000 --> 00:44:50,759
Speaker 1: down for the season and then like I practiced twice

927
00:44:50,800 --> 00:44:55,440
Speaker 1: this week, What so that line's coming down? And I mean,

928
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:56,960
Speaker 1: come on, you lay in a lot of points with

929
00:44:57,040 --> 00:45:00,799
Speaker 1: Maddie Ice and the Falcons anywhere. Uh, let's see what's

930
00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:02,520
Speaker 1: going on with the Chargers, the jihnts. This is a

931
00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:06,319
Speaker 1: really tough weekend. The only games I really like. Arizona

932
00:45:07,280 --> 00:45:09,000
Speaker 1: is one that I definitely like. You guys know how

933
00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:11,920
Speaker 1: the market works by low sell, high selling, high on

934
00:45:12,000 --> 00:45:16,920
Speaker 1: Indie buying, low on Arizona, rock bottom on Arizona, bargain

935
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:20,520
Speaker 1: basement price. Uh, nobody wants to touch the Cardinals this week.

936
00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:23,120
Speaker 1: They stink, they can't stop the run. Cliff Kingsbury, all

937
00:45:23,120 --> 00:45:25,279
Speaker 1: the narratives are true. It's like, come on, are you

938
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 1: kidding me? This is not that bad of a team.

939
00:45:28,160 --> 00:45:30,160
Speaker 1: And they get their center back and if you watch

940
00:45:30,239 --> 00:45:33,280
Speaker 1: the if you watch the game last week, against the Lions.

941
00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:37,920
Speaker 1: It was brutal. I mean their line was getting caved in. Um,

942
00:45:38,080 --> 00:45:40,600
Speaker 1: I just uh cold secondaries kind of beat up. I

943
00:45:40,600 --> 00:45:43,400
Speaker 1: think there's a big zach Ertz game. Um, I'm on

944
00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:46,040
Speaker 1: the Cardinals. I already bet it. That's one game that

945
00:45:46,080 --> 00:45:47,880
Speaker 1: I definitely like. I know, listen and not a lot

946
00:45:47,880 --> 00:45:51,239
Speaker 1: of people are gonna like that. That's fine. Um Uh.

947
00:45:52,200 --> 00:45:54,760
Speaker 1: I guess if if I'm forced and again it's Friday,

948
00:45:54,840 --> 00:45:58,680
Speaker 1: there's COVID issues. If I'm forced to make a pick, um,

949
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:03,160
Speaker 1: I probably would leave Bengals. Ultimately, Um, I can't touch

950
00:46:03,200 --> 00:46:05,520
Speaker 1: green Bay at seven and a half. Um, this is

951
00:46:05,520 --> 00:46:07,799
Speaker 1: a great teaser weekend if you want to tease green

952
00:46:07,840 --> 00:46:10,879
Speaker 1: Bay down. And I'll say this Cleveland, the recipes there,

953
00:46:11,120 --> 00:46:13,920
Speaker 1: run the football, keep Aaron Rodgers on the sideline right,

954
00:46:14,560 --> 00:46:16,680
Speaker 1: and then you're like, okay, well, guess what if green

955
00:46:16,719 --> 00:46:19,680
Speaker 1: Bay like makes adjustment and stops the run. Well, if

956
00:46:19,719 --> 00:46:22,360
Speaker 1: you don't have Miles Garrett groin injury ahead and practice

957
00:46:22,400 --> 00:46:25,440
Speaker 1: this week? Uh, two cornerbacks are out, Newsome and and

958
00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:28,879
Speaker 1: I think Johnson are both out, and it's like, well,

959
00:46:29,120 --> 00:46:31,520
Speaker 1: what like you don't have a pass rot to in

960
00:46:31,560 --> 00:46:35,200
Speaker 1: your secondary short Oh Okay, good luck. UM. So I

961
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 1: I Green Bay will be in every teaser I have.

962
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:39,400
Speaker 1: I think Tampa. I know it's not gonna be popular,

963
00:46:39,400 --> 00:46:40,920
Speaker 1: but I'm gonna wait for that, hopefully to get to

964
00:46:41,000 --> 00:46:42,759
Speaker 1: nine and a half, and I'll tease them in every game,

965
00:46:42,960 --> 00:46:46,640
Speaker 1: every every um get wager that I have. I want

966
00:46:46,640 --> 00:46:49,000
Speaker 1: to tease the Eagles. I'm just I don't know coming

967
00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:52,200
Speaker 1: off the Tuesday night game, and as we talked about

968
00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:56,239
Speaker 1: with Bernie, some concern over COVID, let's wait that one out.

969
00:46:56,880 --> 00:46:59,480
Speaker 1: I'm definitely teasing the Chargers down. Uh. If you if

970
00:46:59,520 --> 00:47:02,160
Speaker 1: you're into tea th up Minnesota up to double digits,

971
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:05,880
Speaker 1: re member, they play every single game close. Um cousins

972
00:47:05,920 --> 00:47:08,520
Speaker 1: coming in the back door down seventeen, totally see that

973
00:47:08,640 --> 00:47:10,640
Speaker 1: Rams don't really blow out good teams, they blow out

974
00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:12,880
Speaker 1: bad teams. Um, but this is a tough week and

975
00:47:13,040 --> 00:47:16,160
Speaker 1: there's no need to fire on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day.

976
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:18,840
Speaker 1: Wait till Sunday. I know that sometimes people don't like

977
00:47:18,920 --> 00:47:23,239
Speaker 1: to bet um on game day, but and that's because

978
00:47:23,480 --> 00:47:25,560
Speaker 1: you know, the markets linees have already moved significantly. The

979
00:47:25,600 --> 00:47:29,680
Speaker 1: big money players have their two beds down. But I

980
00:47:29,719 --> 00:47:31,560
Speaker 1: think there's a good weekend to wait, and teasers are

981
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:34,799
Speaker 1: your friend. All right, guys, have a great Christmas. I'll

982
00:47:35,440 --> 00:47:38,720
Speaker 1: be hosting The Patrick Show again on Monday, Yes again,

983
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:42,120
Speaker 1: and uh we'll have a podcast Monday as well, and

984
00:47:42,280 --> 00:47:43,200
Speaker 1: uh I'll talk to you then