1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:05,280 Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast podcast. All right, 2 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:12,200 Speaker 1: here we go spreading the corn. 3 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:17,320 Speaker 2: Ten seconds remaining, Just go show up the basket, under 4 00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:19,040 Speaker 2: the basket, it's the croup. 5 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:19,480 Speaker 3: For the wind. 6 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:22,480 Speaker 2: God make a miracle. 7 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:28,159 Speaker 3: I'm just chop the water. Hit that one from the 8 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:34,960 Speaker 3: parking lot. Shuck it all at Codge Basketball. It's not 9 00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:38,519 Speaker 3: the size on the dog in the fight. It's the 10 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:42,360 Speaker 3: size of the fight in the dog. Welcome to the 11 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:46,239 Speaker 3: Big Bets on Campus Podcast. I am your host, Kai McEwan, 12 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:48,960 Speaker 3: joined by the rest of the three man Weave crew, 13 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:51,640 Speaker 3: Jim Root and Matt Cox. 14 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:54,400 Speaker 1: We are hearing to take you all. 15 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:57,800 Speaker 3: Through the Final Four. This is our Final Four betting preview, 16 00:00:57,800 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 3: and boy are we excited because we're going to be 17 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:03,640 Speaker 3: down New Orleans ourselves getting our own eyes in person 18 00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:07,120 Speaker 3: on these games. Let's talk the matchups. Let's hit some 19 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:10,280 Speaker 3: futures markets as well, fellas, and maybe if you want 20 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:12,160 Speaker 3: to go into some player props, we can do that 21 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:14,679 Speaker 3: as well. Give the folks out there a full run 22 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 3: of the gamut here of what sportsbooks have to offer. 23 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 3: I'm going to dive right into it. We're going to 24 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:23,680 Speaker 3: go chronological order here on the matchups. Villanova and Kansas. 25 00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 3: No surprise, this is the undercard on the final four 26 00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:33,440 Speaker 3: weekend Kansas minus four and a half. Jim. This is 27 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:37,759 Speaker 3: up by about a point since news broke, presumably about 28 00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:42,039 Speaker 3: the Justin Moore injury extent. Take us through Kansas Villanova 29 00:01:42,080 --> 00:01:43,959 Speaker 3: A few thoughts. You got what do you have? 30 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 1: Well? 31 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:47,040 Speaker 4: First, I want to say that, yeah, because we're going 32 00:01:47,080 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 4: to be in New Orleans, you're going to get more 33 00:01:48,280 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 4: exclusive scoops on the roof and mop the floor, the 34 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 4: rim placement. I can't wait to be a part of those. 35 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 4: You guys did a wonderful job pumping out the super 36 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 4: detailed content from Chicago. But yeah, guy, Kansas Villanova. It's 37 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 4: wild to call this an undercard given that it's Kansas 38 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 4: and a team that's won two of the last five 39 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 4: national titles. But I'm sorry, everything pales to unc Duke. However, 40 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 4: this game lots to discuss, Matthew. I think the biggest 41 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:21,000 Speaker 4: overriding factor for me that I keep coming back to, 42 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 4: both in terms of side and total, is the Villanova 43 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 4: transition defense. Now, I looked at some of the numbers. 44 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 4: They don't great out great per hoop math, both in 45 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 4: terms of frequency and efficiency. It's not like a Holy cow. 46 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:35,600 Speaker 4: This team is going to bottle you up. 47 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:38,480 Speaker 1: But man, I watched that Houston game the second half. 48 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:39,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, it was awesome. It's Houston. 49 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 4: So Houston was very clear in their intent in the 50 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:45,200 Speaker 4: second half. Every miss we are pushing, we need to 51 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 4: get easy baskets. We're not knocking down shots. Their half 52 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 4: court defense is too good to switchable. Let's get easy buckets, 53 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 4: and they just couldn't. And I think a big part 54 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:58,359 Speaker 4: of that is being switchable. Being one through five, they 55 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:01,799 Speaker 4: just guard whoever's near them. There's no like Brandon Slater 56 00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 4: running across the court to get over to o Chaiagbaji 57 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 4: and Dixon needs to get to McCormick. 58 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:07,240 Speaker 1: Like. 59 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:09,919 Speaker 4: They're fine if Cale Daniels starts off on McCormick, they'll 60 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:12,440 Speaker 4: figure it out. They're content with that, and that helps. 61 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 1: Transition defense if you don't have to cross match and 62 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 1: worry about that stuff. So I think that helps him 63 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:18,880 Speaker 1: keep it slow like the under. 64 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 4: And I also think I'm going to be hoping that 65 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:25,200 Speaker 4: this hit hits plus five, Matthew, because I will jump 66 00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:26,080 Speaker 4: in on Villanova then. 67 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 1: And that's where I stand right now. 68 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 2: Yep, I'm with you, I'm looking at a Nova plus 69 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:31,840 Speaker 2: five hoping it creeps up there, so continue to bet 70 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 2: ku ku money backers out there. Yeah, in transition, he's interesting, 71 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:40,360 Speaker 2: Like the Houston performance makes me less worried about the 72 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 2: season long stats that you cite it from hoot math 73 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 2: I think Kai to me, it comes down to the 74 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:48,080 Speaker 2: Justin Moore effect and the Remy Martin effect, justin more 75 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:51,280 Speaker 2: effect being well, he's not there, so he's obviously going 76 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:53,200 Speaker 2: to ask them both as the floor every way you 77 00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 2: slice the advanced on off data from whatever site you 78 00:03:56,600 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 2: choose to dive into such data rabbit holes. He matters, 79 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 2: and I think he particularly matters in a matchup where 80 00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:05,520 Speaker 2: they could have success, they being Nova and the vintage 81 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:08,560 Speaker 2: Villanova inverted offense posting up the guards, which they could 82 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:10,080 Speaker 2: not do it all against Houston, right. I mean those 83 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:12,080 Speaker 2: Houston guards are big, they're along their athletic, they can 84 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:15,120 Speaker 2: body you k what do we call the the big 85 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:21,280 Speaker 2: brick things in Mario the That's what Houston's guards are. 86 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:23,680 Speaker 2: I don't consider well. I think Dwant Harris is a 87 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:26,840 Speaker 2: fantastic defender for Kansas. I think he's frail, and I 88 00:04:26,839 --> 00:04:29,800 Speaker 2: think Remy Martin while they talked by Honch He's improved defensively, 89 00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:32,040 Speaker 2: can absolutely be explored on the post. So when you 90 00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:34,279 Speaker 2: take away one of Villanova's two best post up dudes, 91 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:37,360 Speaker 2: that hurts them. Now you still have Gillespie and Caleb 92 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:40,279 Speaker 2: Daniels can obviously create some mismatches down there as well. 93 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 2: That's a really interesting part of this game. And we'll 94 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:44,919 Speaker 2: get to some of the player props and why actually 95 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:47,719 Speaker 2: am looking at potentially Nova's guards here to back. But 96 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:50,040 Speaker 2: that's a key thing because Remy Martin has been such 97 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 2: a boon to Kaye's offense. I think he has to 98 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:55,359 Speaker 2: play upwards of twenty to twenty five minutes, but I 99 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:58,200 Speaker 2: think he can be a liability defensively, especially if Nova 100 00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 2: tries to pinpoint him as an isolation exploitation in the post. 101 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:06,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, and the other part part of that the inverted offense. 102 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 3: David McCormick, he kind of struggled getting out on Sam 103 00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 3: Wardenberger a couple times on Miami. He was able to 104 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 3: have success from the perimeter. Certainly Eric Dixon can shoot 105 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:17,800 Speaker 3: out there. So Villanova is going to spread Ku out, 106 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:19,560 Speaker 3: play that five out offense, and I do think that 107 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:23,440 Speaker 3: can give Kansas a bit of issues here. The execution 108 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:26,719 Speaker 3: is going to be incredible. And from the Miami Florida 109 00:05:26,839 --> 00:05:30,640 Speaker 3: camp Matt we learned pregame from a source word is 110 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:33,800 Speaker 3: that they thought that Kansas couldn't guard them late in 111 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:35,839 Speaker 3: the shot clock. They tended to ease up late in 112 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:38,719 Speaker 3: the shot clock. Villanova, if they're working the ball around 113 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 3: for twenty twenty five thirty seconds, Kansas could wear it 114 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:44,640 Speaker 3: down eventually as this game goes on. So there's lots 115 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 3: like about Villanova despite Justin Moore being out of this game. 116 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 3: I think also a point you have to mention that 117 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:52,000 Speaker 3: on the other end of size, right, and you look 118 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 3: at Villanova playing Houston and Michigan these last two games. 119 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 3: They certainly faced their fair sure big guys Dickinson for 120 00:05:57,520 --> 00:06:01,120 Speaker 3: Michigan fifteen to fifteen against Villanova, but Villanova held Michigan 121 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:03,840 Speaker 3: just thirty five percent inside the arc. They held Houston 122 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:06,240 Speaker 3: just forty three percent inside of the arc. The worry 123 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:09,160 Speaker 3: is both those teams, Houston Michigan kind of killed Villanov 124 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:11,680 Speaker 3: on the glass gym. I think Kansas can do that 125 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:13,960 Speaker 3: as well. And they really turned the jets on in 126 00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 3: the second half against Miami against the smaller Canes. McCormick 127 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:19,600 Speaker 3: based got a touch in the post every single time 128 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:21,640 Speaker 3: down the floor in the second half. I think they 129 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:23,040 Speaker 3: could do that again against Villanova. 130 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, the glass is interesting because I thought Villanova basically 131 00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:30,359 Speaker 4: built their first half lead because they kept. 132 00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:31,239 Speaker 1: Houston off the glass. 133 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 4: At one point, Houston's offensive rebound rate was sub ten percent. 134 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:38,760 Speaker 4: They had like one out of fifteen available offensive rebounds. 135 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:41,400 Speaker 4: And then the second half they went bananas on the 136 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:44,280 Speaker 4: offensive glass and ended up completely dominating it, but just 137 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:47,680 Speaker 4: couldn't hit enough shots to compete. I think Kansas can 138 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:49,839 Speaker 4: probably find some success there. I mean just even just 139 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:54,560 Speaker 4: McCormick and lightfoot themselves at the center. Combo Dixon sat 140 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:57,279 Speaker 4: a lot against Houston. I think they like just decided 141 00:06:57,279 --> 00:06:59,479 Speaker 4: the zag instead of digging with the lineup and go 142 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:02,359 Speaker 4: a little small, are more versatile. They don't have that 143 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:05,480 Speaker 4: option really now without more unless they're going to play 144 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:06,159 Speaker 4: a lot of Archie. 145 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:07,560 Speaker 1: Dacno or Antoine. 146 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 3: And I know that Jay Wright him, this is the 147 00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:11,160 Speaker 3: roan answe this is it. 148 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 4: This is I'm eternally hopeless, this is it. I'm eternally hopeful. 149 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 4: I just I don't know if it's going to come 150 00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 4: to fruition here. The other thing that I think worries 151 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 4: me defensively for Villanova is because they are so switchable, 152 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 4: they're basically daring you to beat them one on one. Like, 153 00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:27,920 Speaker 4: all right, we think Eric Dixon can hold up against 154 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 4: your guards, and he kind of did against Shed and Edwards. 155 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:32,280 Speaker 1: He kind of did against. 156 00:07:32,080 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 4: Eli Brooks and those guys. But that's where Remy Martin 157 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:37,680 Speaker 4: is huge. Matt like, he is a one on one score. 158 00:07:37,880 --> 00:07:39,960 Speaker 4: He can create, he can get separation for his little 159 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 4: step back jumper. 160 00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:41,880 Speaker 1: His form is. 161 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:44,200 Speaker 4: Still a little goofy to me, it's like a push, 162 00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:47,320 Speaker 4: but he's a terrific shooter off the bounce, and I 163 00:07:47,320 --> 00:07:50,680 Speaker 4: think he's going to be the differentiator where Villanova's basically like, 164 00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 4: we're a college team. We don't think you have enough 165 00:07:52,920 --> 00:07:55,760 Speaker 4: one on one scores in college to beat us, and 166 00:07:56,400 --> 00:07:58,600 Speaker 4: I think Kansas might and I know if they advance, 167 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:00,400 Speaker 4: Duke certainly does so. 168 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:02,840 Speaker 1: I'm that's that's the part of the. 169 00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:05,400 Speaker 4: Matchup that words me both from an efficiency and Kansas 170 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 4: scoring and covering perspective. 171 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:09,560 Speaker 3: I can I take us to an over under discussion 172 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:11,960 Speaker 3: real quickly. It's just about to you, man, that's a 173 00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:15,680 Speaker 3: great idea about by the way, Matthew, which has actually 174 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:17,120 Speaker 3: gone up about a half a point. 175 00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:21,600 Speaker 2: It surprises you. This is where I'm ultimately torn. I'm 176 00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:24,880 Speaker 2: curious if people have strong takes. I'll prevent a few 177 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 2: factoids on both sides. Here, Nova one in six to 178 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 2: the under in their last seven games. Now, I think 179 00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:33,960 Speaker 2: that's partly a product of who they've played. 180 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:35,080 Speaker 3: But man, it. 181 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 2: Seems like when the stakes are higher and Noah really 182 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:41,240 Speaker 2: really tightens up their pace and their transition defense, like 183 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:44,280 Speaker 2: they clamp down. There's no more of this free flowing, 184 00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 2: opportunistic transition attacking. It's very much we're going to run 185 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:50,520 Speaker 2: our stuff and next year our stuff in the half court. 186 00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 2: No ifs ands butts about it. So I think they 187 00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:56,320 Speaker 2: continue to play to that script. The Remy Martin effect, 188 00:08:56,400 --> 00:08:58,360 Speaker 2: I mean, I think he's an over player. They're scoring 189 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:00,640 Speaker 2: three point six point per possession more when he is 190 00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:02,880 Speaker 2: on the floor, and when you watch him, kai like 191 00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 2: he pushes the pace right. I mean, Harris is a 192 00:09:04,640 --> 00:09:06,920 Speaker 2: little more control than he's out there now. They share 193 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 2: the floor occasionally. When they share the floor, usually it 194 00:09:09,280 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 2: seems like Herre's the one that initiates. But when it's 195 00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:15,400 Speaker 2: just Martin, No Harris, there's clearly an emphasis to run 196 00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:17,440 Speaker 2: a little more, so I think as his minutes increase, 197 00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:19,800 Speaker 2: probably plays well for the over. But again I mentioned 198 00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:22,840 Speaker 2: that Nova dynamic with how well they played toward the under, 199 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:24,640 Speaker 2: so there's a little bit of an offsetting effect there. 200 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:27,199 Speaker 3: I ultimately didn't play it. 201 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 2: But the Remy effect, I think, and how he controls 202 00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:34,400 Speaker 2: the pace, how many minutes he plays versus Nova's snail 203 00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:36,920 Speaker 2: like mentality, I think that's sort of a tug of 204 00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:38,080 Speaker 2: war that no side. 205 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 3: Really wins from an over under perspective. Yeah, Villanova actually 206 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:44,080 Speaker 3: six to the last seven games have gone under. Another 207 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:45,959 Speaker 3: point in favor of why I was kind of surprised 208 00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:48,800 Speaker 3: this game was taking money towards the over. And Jim, 209 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:51,560 Speaker 3: you have a pivot analysis that you want to mention 210 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:54,800 Speaker 3: with more. I was confused by hoop lenses on off 211 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:59,839 Speaker 3: numbers showing that more out of the lineup offensively Phillanova's 212 00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:02,199 Speaker 3: BA see the same and slightly better on defense, not 213 00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 3: in the lineup which points to it under. But in 214 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:07,360 Speaker 3: my head I'm thinking there's no way they're better offensively 215 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:08,200 Speaker 3: when he's off the floor. 216 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:12,200 Speaker 4: Yeah, pivot analysis also says they run a little more 217 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:14,600 Speaker 4: when he's not on the floor, which surprised me too, 218 00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:16,520 Speaker 4: because like there's a ball handler guy that can grab 219 00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:19,960 Speaker 4: and go. But I think there's maybe inherently a little 220 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:22,680 Speaker 4: bit of issue with using those because him sitting out 221 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:25,840 Speaker 4: during a game is different than him completely not being 222 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:29,839 Speaker 4: available and having like a five man rotation. I think 223 00:10:30,760 --> 00:10:35,480 Speaker 4: from both a fatigue and a foul trouble perspective, Villanova. 224 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:36,640 Speaker 1: Desperately wants low possessions. 225 00:10:37,040 --> 00:10:39,880 Speaker 4: They don't want a chance for McCormick to get Dixon 226 00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:42,680 Speaker 4: and Slater with two fouls, which is exactly what he 227 00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:45,679 Speaker 4: did against Miami. Miller had two foles immediately, Wardenberg was 228 00:10:45,679 --> 00:10:48,440 Speaker 4: in foul trouble the entire second half. I think that's 229 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:51,520 Speaker 4: a big reason to keep possessions down. And then also 230 00:10:51,800 --> 00:10:54,720 Speaker 4: without more, you have less of a score. You mentioned 231 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 4: the late shot clock stuff Kai against Kansas. Moore is 232 00:10:57,440 --> 00:11:00,600 Speaker 4: a huge part of that for Villanova. Just a guy 233 00:11:00,640 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 4: that's capable of taking a pull up three or you know, 234 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 4: a quick catch and shoot as the ball pings. 235 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:07,080 Speaker 1: Around the perimeter late in the shot clock. 236 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:10,200 Speaker 4: So I think that SAP's efficiency a little bit against Kansas, 237 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:12,760 Speaker 4: and then I really strongly believe this tempo is going 238 00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 4: to be low. I mean, they held Michigan to Michigan 239 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:18,800 Speaker 4: slowest games since February twelfth, they've played under sixty possessions 240 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 4: in like every other game. Kansas is gonna want to push. 241 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:22,600 Speaker 4: I just think they're going to struggle to do so. 242 00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 3: I agree, and that's why I already took the under. Guys, 243 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:27,520 Speaker 3: I got a I guess a worse number than what 244 00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:29,319 Speaker 3: it's going to end up at. But I'm already on 245 00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:31,600 Speaker 3: the under in this game. And Jim, like you said, 246 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:33,480 Speaker 3: like Matt agreed with I'm went in to this game. 247 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:35,760 Speaker 3: It's five, and we'll hop in on Villanov if it 248 00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:37,959 Speaker 3: gets there. If it doesn't get there, I'll make a 249 00:11:37,960 --> 00:11:39,439 Speaker 3: split decision when it comes. 250 00:11:39,679 --> 00:11:43,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, hook with Hey, maybe it'll be will not. You 251 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:45,240 Speaker 4: guys don't have to bet aside if you don't want to. 252 00:11:45,640 --> 00:11:48,760 Speaker 4: But for the total ky, I thought initially like this 253 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:50,440 Speaker 4: is going to go down everyone, and seeing how slow 254 00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:52,839 Speaker 4: Villainov's playing, they lose a starting guard. I bet a 255 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:55,280 Speaker 4: one thirty one and a half under and it immediately 256 00:11:55,320 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 4: went to one thirty three, and I was like, screw it, 257 00:11:57,200 --> 00:11:59,720 Speaker 4: I'm adding more. Yeah, I added that I added under 258 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:01,000 Speaker 4: first half sixty. 259 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:02,839 Speaker 1: Two and a half. I think there. I think it's 260 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:04,880 Speaker 1: gonna be a slog like from start to finish in. 261 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:06,960 Speaker 3: This one absolutely has been terrific. 262 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 2: I mean there's no like that's really carry them recently. 263 00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 2: So yeah, a lot points to the under. Now we 264 00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:13,720 Speaker 2: talk more about it, all right, kay Kaila. 265 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:17,880 Speaker 3: Next matchup, right, Let's go to the headliner of the 266 00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:22,320 Speaker 3: final four. You and see Duke. My gosh, the narratives guys. 267 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:25,320 Speaker 3: First ever game between these two in the Instaby tournament, 268 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:27,560 Speaker 3: and it happens to be the final four. This is 269 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:32,000 Speaker 3: coach K's final tournament, as everyone out there realizes and knows. 270 00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 3: It's also a rubber match from a one to one 271 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:39,000 Speaker 3: season split. So you have three things going here, Jim 272 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:42,079 Speaker 3: and Matt and I am excited for this game personally 273 00:12:42,400 --> 00:12:45,080 Speaker 3: because the ticket price has got to be outrageous for 274 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:47,720 Speaker 3: this game just to get in the door. And fellas 275 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:50,920 Speaker 3: we're sitting there in the media with our feetback, just 276 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 3: enjoying life, living the rich life. As they say, Matt, 277 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:58,520 Speaker 3: I think spread is kind of short here. We saw 278 00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:02,200 Speaker 3: the spreads from the two prior games. So Duke on 279 00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:05,000 Speaker 3: February fifth was favored by three and a half at 280 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:08,280 Speaker 3: U NC, they won by twenty. On March fifth, Duke 281 00:13:08,360 --> 00:13:11,120 Speaker 3: was favored by eleven points at home against U and C. 282 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:14,720 Speaker 3: Of course, Targels won that game by thirteen. Now, Kim Palm, 283 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:18,680 Speaker 3: ranks have dramatically changed since those games. On February fifth, 284 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:20,840 Speaker 3: you had Duke at number twelve, you and CE at 285 00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:23,600 Speaker 3: thirty eight. On the fifth of March, you had Duke 286 00:13:23,640 --> 00:13:26,280 Speaker 3: at five, you and see at thirty seven. Now you're 287 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:29,840 Speaker 3: showing you and C at sixteen, Duke at seven, and 288 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:32,000 Speaker 3: we're sitting with a four point spread in favor of 289 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:34,480 Speaker 3: the Duchies. Matt, does that make sense? And who do 290 00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 3: you like? Like Duke? 291 00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 2: I like the over. We'll get to the over in 292 00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:41,559 Speaker 2: a second. But let's just give credit to UNC's defense. 293 00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:44,400 Speaker 2: I think that was the butt of the jokes regarding 294 00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:46,080 Speaker 2: them early in the season. They couldn't guard a note 295 00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:50,760 Speaker 2: that could stop a nosebleed. Printer defense was leaky. No 296 00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:53,080 Speaker 2: pun intending because leaky Black has been a dominant defender 297 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:56,559 Speaker 2: on that end, and their interior defense was soft. Since 298 00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:59,120 Speaker 2: February seventeen, can I talk about the time stamp and 299 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 2: how much UN season proved down the stretch and kempom 300 00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:05,840 Speaker 2: bart torvik as unc as the fifth best defense defensive 301 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:09,480 Speaker 2: dis missions he since February seventeenth. Fifth, not even like 302 00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 2: fiftieth or thirtieth, like average, like legitimately elite in personnel wise. 303 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:18,000 Speaker 2: It doesn't exude a dominating defensive fortress. But when you 304 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:20,160 Speaker 2: have a guy like Black who is a defensive destroyer, 305 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:22,000 Speaker 2: can guard one through four to one through five, even 306 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:26,160 Speaker 2: bay Cots muscled up. I think Mannick plays smart, intelligent defense. 307 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:28,040 Speaker 2: I think Davis and Love had taking big strides there 308 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:30,400 Speaker 2: as well. I mean, we just heard Hebert Davis talking 309 00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 2: to the press Connor to day about how Leaky Black's defensive 310 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:35,440 Speaker 2: commitment has like really inspired the team. So he's been 311 00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:38,680 Speaker 2: kind of like his mentality has been like an osmosis 312 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:39,760 Speaker 2: throughout that team. 313 00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:40,040 Speaker 3: Whatever. 314 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:42,200 Speaker 2: It's all clichevs. Narratives, but I kind of by ind 315 00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:44,120 Speaker 2: of it and the numbers back it up. I still 316 00:14:44,120 --> 00:14:46,800 Speaker 2: think you can score pretty easily against unc Jim. The 317 00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:49,200 Speaker 2: one matchup that hurts is the Ban Carol matchup because 318 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:50,800 Speaker 2: Leaky Black put him in a straight jacket and that 319 00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:54,160 Speaker 2: most recent meeting in Cameron. But you go down the 320 00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:57,320 Speaker 2: line one through the other four positions. I actually kind 321 00:14:57,320 --> 00:14:58,720 Speaker 2: of give an edge to Duke and all four just 322 00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:02,120 Speaker 2: when offensive first defense standpoint. I think that matters because 323 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:04,400 Speaker 2: Duke schematically is looking to put you in one v 324 00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 2: one isolation matchups, So that's my angle. 325 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:08,360 Speaker 3: I like Ducal out though. 326 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 1: Yeah. 327 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:10,400 Speaker 4: The one thing I want to see with that Ben 328 00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 4: Caro Black matchup is more of that mid post low post. 329 00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:18,240 Speaker 4: They did it Layton against deep, get deeper Arkansas cut 330 00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:20,400 Speaker 4: it to like five or six, and out of a 331 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:24,040 Speaker 4: timeout they went rip screen for ben Caro coming from 332 00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:25,600 Speaker 4: the top of the key down to the right block, 333 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:28,200 Speaker 4: and they ran it three straight possessions. He had a layup, 334 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:31,000 Speaker 4: a kickout for I think a driving layup, and then 335 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:33,160 Speaker 4: a kickout for I think a foul on a three 336 00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:34,840 Speaker 4: like they scored a ton of points off of it, 337 00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 4: because you just like it's so hard to guard him 338 00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:39,880 Speaker 4: one on one. Black is a as a great defender, 339 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:42,040 Speaker 4: but I don't think he has the strength. If ben 340 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 4: Caro really puts his mind to bullyball, I think he 341 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 4: can get around him and threw him for layups, which 342 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:51,200 Speaker 4: means you have to send help. And Duke actually has 343 00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 4: shooting man like that. That's kind of like the not 344 00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:57,880 Speaker 4: sneaky secret with this team, But it's like you think 345 00:15:58,080 --> 00:15:59,640 Speaker 4: in the past, so they've got all these great athletes, 346 00:15:59,640 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 4: but no sh like this year's team can knock it 347 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:06,160 Speaker 4: down from outside. Griffin Roach Pancaro, Wendell Moore's knocked down shots, 348 00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:10,480 Speaker 4: somebody we razed quite a bit in multiple preseasons. So yeah, 349 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:14,160 Speaker 4: the one thing that is hurtful for Duke is how 350 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:17,520 Speaker 4: great of a defensive rebounding team unc Is Baycott just 351 00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:19,160 Speaker 4: shuts down the glass, so I don't know if Mark 352 00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:20,480 Speaker 4: Williams is going to be able to get too many 353 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:24,120 Speaker 4: second opportunities. The first matchup between these two, Duke was 354 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:26,840 Speaker 4: thoroughly dominant on the glass forty to twenty four, and 355 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:30,800 Speaker 4: then UNC won the rebounding matchup at Cameron, which I 356 00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:33,800 Speaker 4: thought was pretty surprising. Part of that's because Duke missed 357 00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:37,040 Speaker 4: more shots, so there's more defensive rebounds available and the 358 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:38,240 Speaker 4: defense was better for UNC. 359 00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:40,520 Speaker 1: But man, yeah, I'm leaning Duke here. 360 00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 3: Kai. 361 00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:42,840 Speaker 4: I think the number, just like you said, feels a 362 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:45,920 Speaker 4: little low. I wouldn't set it at like the seven 363 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:48,359 Speaker 4: and a half seven that the prior. 364 00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:50,400 Speaker 1: Spreads indicate, but I would still think it should be 365 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:55,760 Speaker 1: about six and forced again Lean and Duke for sure. 366 00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:57,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess it matters how much you buy into 367 00:16:57,880 --> 00:16:59,960 Speaker 3: U and see his current form because there arguably the 368 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:02,880 Speaker 3: most impressive team of the tournament so far. Right beat 369 00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:05,360 Speaker 3: Marquepey thirty two, Baylor they're up by twenty five, beat 370 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:10,080 Speaker 3: UCLA by seven, dismantled the Saint Peter's Peacocks, and we 371 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 3: mentioned that they have gone up fourteen spots in Kimpom 372 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:14,680 Speaker 3: in the tournament alone that we had in. 373 00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:17,800 Speaker 1: The country since March first per bart Tordkoe team. 374 00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:20,960 Speaker 3: So if you buy into that, this spread isn't too short. 375 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:24,119 Speaker 3: And now we had them UNC number fourteen in our 376 00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:27,440 Speaker 3: preseason ranking, so this isn't super shocking that they made 377 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:29,520 Speaker 3: it this far. This is not your typical eight seed. 378 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:33,280 Speaker 3: This team's much better than that, especially right now. But man, 379 00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:37,919 Speaker 3: the Duke switch flip against Texas Tech offensively is just 380 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:39,879 Speaker 3: where my mind's going right now. One point one to 381 00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:42,800 Speaker 3: six points for possession against Texas Tech, the second half 382 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:46,680 Speaker 3: where they missed absolutely nothing, and now the number one 383 00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:49,480 Speaker 3: offense in Kimpom, I don't think UNC is going to 384 00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:52,880 Speaker 3: stop them personally, So I liked insertion there to put 385 00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:54,080 Speaker 3: a bullet on your point. 386 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:57,240 Speaker 2: Since I mentioned this since February seventeen, how good UNC's 387 00:17:57,280 --> 00:17:59,880 Speaker 2: defense spent, since that's over that same time span, Duke 388 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 2: one point three points per possession, one point three offensively 389 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:05,639 Speaker 2: offensively pretty good? 390 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:09,120 Speaker 3: Yes, yes, it is pretty pretty good. Yeah, I think 391 00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:11,760 Speaker 3: this is Duke's game. I like them at minus four. 392 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:14,880 Speaker 3: In fact, they've already taken at minus four. Let's talk 393 00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:19,159 Speaker 3: total in this game. There are some intriguing aspects. The 394 00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 3: totals one to fifty one. Just like Katie villing O, 395 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:23,720 Speaker 3: it's been bet up. In fact, it's been bet up 396 00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:26,920 Speaker 3: about one one and a half points the previous two matchups. 397 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:29,159 Speaker 3: Matt February fifth, one fifty two and a half is 398 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:31,520 Speaker 3: what the total closed. App Yeah, it hit one fifty 399 00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:34,119 Speaker 3: four went over. March fifth closed one fifty three and 400 00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:37,120 Speaker 3: a half, one seventy five points in that game over, 401 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:40,320 Speaker 3: of course, Duke eight and two to the over the 402 00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:42,199 Speaker 3: last ten games. Which way do you win? 403 00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:44,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you're hinting at over, which is where 404 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:45,359 Speaker 2: I lean as well. 405 00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:47,280 Speaker 3: You're right. 406 00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:48,680 Speaker 2: I mean the fact that this total is a little 407 00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:50,720 Speaker 2: bit lower than those first two, especially given those first 408 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:52,800 Speaker 2: two went over, is perplexing. But I think scoring is 409 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:55,480 Speaker 2: generally erodes as you go deeper into the season, so 410 00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:57,600 Speaker 2: there's an adjustment you have to make for that. The 411 00:18:57,680 --> 00:18:59,920 Speaker 2: key thing here is Duke's defensive strategy. They were apt 412 00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:03,240 Speaker 2: torched against UNC in pick and roll, spread pick and 413 00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:05,720 Speaker 2: roll specifically, that's how Baycot scored. I think he was 414 00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:07,359 Speaker 2: ten of eleven from the field. It wasn't like offensive 415 00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:11,119 Speaker 2: rebound stickbacks. It was mostly like screen and roll and 416 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:14,000 Speaker 2: Davis in love and Manic getting him on those slips, 417 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:16,919 Speaker 2: and Duke just was overly spread out and way too discombobulated. 418 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:20,280 Speaker 2: I think the wrench that coach k can throw in 419 00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:22,200 Speaker 2: UNC's offense is that zone. 420 00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:22,359 Speaker 3: Now. 421 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:24,840 Speaker 2: I think UNC can score very effectively against zones, especially 422 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:25,720 Speaker 2: with how they rebound. 423 00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:27,239 Speaker 1: They're zone team. Now. 424 00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:29,040 Speaker 2: I think they're a good zone team, and Man's the 425 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 2: ultimate zone buster. But I think the just the ability 426 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:34,399 Speaker 2: to throw that wrinkle in, you know, maybe once or 427 00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 2: twice throughout the flow of the game, to take UNC 428 00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:39,040 Speaker 2: out of that comfort zone of their spread pick and roll, 429 00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:42,280 Speaker 2: I think that actually could hurt the over. That's a 430 00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:44,520 Speaker 2: minor nit pick. That's a Devil's advocates too could take 431 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:46,040 Speaker 2: Kai I am on the over. I think it's a 432 00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:47,119 Speaker 2: high scoring affair. 433 00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:49,479 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it'll be a shootout as well. 434 00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:51,360 Speaker 4: I think both teams want to run the second game 435 00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:54,600 Speaker 4: at Cameron at seventy five possessions. This one's projected for seventy. 436 00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:58,399 Speaker 4: I think we could see north of that seventy. I 437 00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:00,320 Speaker 4: guess you know, some people might buy into the the 438 00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:03,800 Speaker 4: shooting in a football stadium. I'm not totally sold that 439 00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:07,200 Speaker 4: that matters a ton. Maybe it will, but Matt, I 440 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:10,119 Speaker 4: think your point about the zone is pretty apt to 441 00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:12,400 Speaker 4: I do think UNC can score against Stones, but it's 442 00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:15,920 Speaker 4: just the element of making them stop and evaluate what 443 00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:19,000 Speaker 4: are they playing this possession, like the fact that they 444 00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:23,000 Speaker 4: have to think about that extra curveball. Even if they 445 00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:25,919 Speaker 4: can score against Like Texas Tech scored really efficiently against 446 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:29,040 Speaker 4: the Dukes, but it still was a key for changing 447 00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:31,439 Speaker 4: the tenor of the game and really how it was 448 00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:34,600 Speaker 4: playing out. And they're not going to play at every possession, 449 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:36,360 Speaker 4: so UNC is not going to get that used to it. 450 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:38,400 Speaker 4: I'm with you guys on the over. I think both 451 00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:41,440 Speaker 4: teams score efficiently. I'm just looking back at the box 452 00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:43,960 Speaker 4: score kai from the one at Cameron. UNC has four 453 00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 4: guys that can score Leaky Black can't and they don't 454 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:49,919 Speaker 4: play any and all four guys had twenty plus in 455 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:52,200 Speaker 4: that game. Wow, So like you need a really good 456 00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:55,399 Speaker 4: game from all four of Davis Love, Baycott, Manik to 457 00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 4: beat Duke, and I don't. 458 00:20:57,040 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 1: Know if we're going to get it. 459 00:20:57,920 --> 00:20:59,919 Speaker 4: Like, I think those guys are all playing well, but 460 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:01,680 Speaker 4: for them to all play well in the same night, 461 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:03,480 Speaker 4: that has been a. 462 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:04,800 Speaker 1: Very rare occurrence this season. 463 00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:09,800 Speaker 3: And that was my final bo on this. Caleb Love, RJ. Davis. 464 00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:13,399 Speaker 3: They can get cold, they take bad shots. If they're cold, 465 00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:16,040 Speaker 3: it might be game over here. Another point in Duke's favor. 466 00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:20,720 Speaker 3: Let's move to futures, guys. Let's talk the winner. Of course, 467 00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:25,600 Speaker 3: the national title odds. I briefly mentioned some straight forecast bets. 468 00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:29,280 Speaker 3: I thought we're interesting via DraftKings. I'm sure other sportsbooks 469 00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:30,920 Speaker 3: out there offer them as well. And then of course 470 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:33,480 Speaker 3: you want to touch on most outstanding player. There's some 471 00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:38,360 Speaker 3: interesting numbers in that market as well. So talking title odds, 472 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:40,639 Speaker 3: the best I've seen out there for Duke, and I 473 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:43,040 Speaker 3: haven't looked at too many books, so please jump in 474 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:46,280 Speaker 3: if you have seen better. Is plus one sixty for 475 00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:48,879 Speaker 3: the Blue Devils. They are the favorite right now. Kansas 476 00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:52,080 Speaker 3: can get as good as plus two hundred at bet rivers, 477 00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 3: and there's most others. Looks like they're floating around plus 478 00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:58,560 Speaker 3: one eighty plus one eighty five, Villanova going about four 479 00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:01,200 Speaker 3: and a half or five to one, and then you 480 00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:04,199 Speaker 3: and C five five and a half to one. What 481 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:06,280 Speaker 3: do you think about this, Jim? Where do you do 482 00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:08,400 Speaker 3: you think Duke is the correct favorite? First of all, 483 00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:11,760 Speaker 3: they are the two seed, Kansas the only one seed remaining, 484 00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:13,800 Speaker 3: but a tougher match up here in the final four, 485 00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 3: arguably title odds. What do you think? 486 00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:18,879 Speaker 4: Yeah, the title AADs are a little curious because, like 487 00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:21,920 Speaker 4: you said, you know, they're both fourish point favorites here 488 00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:23,240 Speaker 4: against each other. 489 00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:25,320 Speaker 1: I'm not exactly sure what the spread would be. 490 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:29,439 Speaker 4: I think maybe Ku minus one, and maybe I'm crazy 491 00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:32,200 Speaker 4: for that, but I think Duke has taken a ton 492 00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:34,960 Speaker 4: of money in the market and that has probably led 493 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:37,560 Speaker 4: to them being a favorite that I don't think books 494 00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:39,159 Speaker 4: want to have Duke at you know, two to one 495 00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,800 Speaker 4: at this point because people are buying the coach k narrative. 496 00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:44,760 Speaker 4: I bought into it last round. I took a big 497 00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:48,320 Speaker 4: sliver of Duke at four to one before the Arkansas game. 498 00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:50,879 Speaker 4: So based on where the prices are right now, I 499 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:52,919 Speaker 4: don't see like a whole ton of value. 500 00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:55,760 Speaker 1: If Villanova still had more, I'd love that price, but 501 00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:58,399 Speaker 1: obviously it's there because they don't have more. 502 00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:01,920 Speaker 4: If Jay Wright wins two game against this competition without more, 503 00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,400 Speaker 4: I mean, build a statue already if there's not one, 504 00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:06,080 Speaker 4: but Matt don't. 505 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:08,560 Speaker 1: I don't have a whole lot of take in terms 506 00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:09,880 Speaker 1: of value right now. 507 00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:12,439 Speaker 3: I think don't take Duke in this market. 508 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:15,720 Speaker 2: If you like Kansas, I think that's maybe who you'd consider. 509 00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:17,879 Speaker 2: I mean, I'm looking at a little handy andy parlay 510 00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:21,159 Speaker 2: calculator right now. The implied money line rollover for a 511 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,320 Speaker 2: minus one ninety money line final four, which is what 512 00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:25,760 Speaker 2: both Duke and Kansas are. And then jim to your 513 00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:28,439 Speaker 2: point if assuming they're probably a pick them if they 514 00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:31,560 Speaker 2: played each other in the championship, that equates to a 515 00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:33,280 Speaker 2: twenty to one or sorry, a two to one payout, 516 00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:35,640 Speaker 2: which is what Kay is effectively sitting at at Bette River. 517 00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:37,680 Speaker 2: So now on the other side of the coin, don't 518 00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:40,240 Speaker 2: take Duke because you're basically just getting way worse value. Now, 519 00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:43,679 Speaker 2: the perspective matchups here matters well, Kai, I feel a 520 00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,159 Speaker 2: lot better about Duke than I do about Kansas, don't you. 521 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,240 Speaker 3: Yeah? Which just me and winning that first game, Well 522 00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:51,760 Speaker 3: it's Kansas plays Duke. You know that's a different story. 523 00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,400 Speaker 3: It's interesting. You can get so, like I said, DraftKings 524 00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 3: offer straight forecast odds plus three p thirty. You can 525 00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:01,840 Speaker 3: get at either k E beats Duke, Duke beats Ku. 526 00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:04,040 Speaker 3: So if you like that matchup, I mean plus three 527 00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:07,040 Speaker 3: thirty pretty good odds, I would say for that, and 528 00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:09,639 Speaker 3: maybe you want to take that instead of a straight winner. 529 00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:12,880 Speaker 3: Kansas are Duke here. I think k two to one 530 00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:15,480 Speaker 3: is the best bet on the board personally, I think 531 00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:17,200 Speaker 3: so of the winners. Yeah, I agree, yep. 532 00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:21,399 Speaker 4: I think if we're betting this market, we're going to 533 00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:24,400 Speaker 4: talk most outstanding player in a second. There's something there 534 00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:26,760 Speaker 4: that appeals to me more than just betting KU two 535 00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:28,520 Speaker 4: to one. I don't know if we want to get 536 00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:31,360 Speaker 4: to it right away, but soon I'm keeping them Kah. 537 00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:31,720 Speaker 3: Let's get there. 538 00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:33,480 Speaker 2: I have no heart to I think the winner straight 539 00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:35,720 Speaker 2: forecast markets are just ah, just blow. 540 00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:40,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm not super enthused about any of them specific matchups. 541 00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:43,040 Speaker 4: Like I said, I kind of lean towards Duke covering 542 00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,520 Speaker 4: their spread. Haven't bet yet, mostly because of my future's position. 543 00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:48,440 Speaker 4: I'm already kind of leveraged on Duke and then Kansas 544 00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:50,879 Speaker 4: probably wins, but I'm liking the plus five if we 545 00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:53,680 Speaker 4: can get there. For Nova Most Outstanding Player, though, guys, 546 00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:57,160 Speaker 4: I mentioned the way Villanova defends and how they switch 547 00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:59,080 Speaker 4: and how they make you say you need to beat 548 00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:01,399 Speaker 4: us one d one, I think that leads to a 549 00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:05,239 Speaker 4: big Remy Martin game. Yeah, got Martin still twelve to 550 00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:08,720 Speaker 4: one Most Outstanding Player. I know a couple other people 551 00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:10,879 Speaker 4: I've worked with. It came out of like sixty to 552 00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:13,880 Speaker 4: one before the Sweet sixteen because he was going off, 553 00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:16,480 Speaker 4: and then he was huge in the Sweet sixteen. I 554 00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,119 Speaker 4: think that shows that evidence is how important he can 555 00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:21,879 Speaker 4: be for this team when they're going through scoring droughts 556 00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:23,359 Speaker 4: like that were against Providence, he was the guy that 557 00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:25,640 Speaker 4: came in and saved them. And again, I think he's 558 00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:27,000 Speaker 4: going to get a lot of chances to go one 559 00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:29,840 Speaker 4: on one against Samuels and Dixon and he'll either create 560 00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:32,399 Speaker 4: for himself or he'll create for others. That's going to 561 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:35,159 Speaker 4: be a big boon in twelve to one. I know 562 00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:38,359 Speaker 4: like Vaji is a bigger favorite for Kansas there, but 563 00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:40,360 Speaker 4: he's up at five to one. Like, rather than bet 564 00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:43,119 Speaker 4: Kansas two to one, I'd be more interested in the 565 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:44,280 Speaker 4: value of twelve to one. 566 00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:47,720 Speaker 2: Matthew, Hey, I'll take you one step farther, Jim plus 567 00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:49,440 Speaker 2: fifteen sorry, fifteen. 568 00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:51,440 Speaker 3: To one, yet get in the habit of saying that correctly. 569 00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:52,320 Speaker 3: Fifteen to one. 570 00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:54,280 Speaker 2: Remy Martin has scored the most points in the tournament 571 00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:57,320 Speaker 2: at fandel, so I'm looking at both those. 572 00:25:57,359 --> 00:25:57,720 Speaker 3: I'm with you. 573 00:25:57,720 --> 00:25:59,200 Speaker 2: I guess I'm going to put a couple eggs in 574 00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:02,480 Speaker 2: the Remy Martin bas Kai. My most outstanding player pick 575 00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:05,560 Speaker 2: is Jeremy Roach twenty to one. I think Van Caro 576 00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:08,760 Speaker 2: against Leaky Black is a potentially tough matchup for him. 577 00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:11,959 Speaker 2: I'm looking at the others quote unquote on Duke and 578 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,840 Speaker 2: just with the way Roach is playing, I think he 579 00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:18,240 Speaker 2: can if Martin ends up guarding him in the title game, 580 00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:21,200 Speaker 2: I think he can destroy Martin at the point of 581 00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:26,120 Speaker 2: attack and against unc why I just championed how much 582 00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:29,880 Speaker 2: better Love and Davis have played defensively. I still think 583 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:31,879 Speaker 2: Roach can get into gaps. I mean, he was getting 584 00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:34,120 Speaker 2: looks against Texas Tech. He's gonna get looks against UNC 585 00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:36,760 Speaker 2: and I think his usage, his confidence is on a 586 00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:40,240 Speaker 2: complete rocket ship right now. Twenty to one for I 587 00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:41,600 Speaker 2: think the favorite to win the title. 588 00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:43,919 Speaker 3: I'll take it. Yeah, And in context out there, so 589 00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:46,200 Speaker 3: ben Caro is the favorite, the heavy favorite to win 590 00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:49,720 Speaker 3: mop He's plus two to seventy five, and Boggi's five to one, 591 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:53,040 Speaker 3: Samuels eight to one, Gillespie nine to one. Interesting that 592 00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:57,480 Speaker 3: those two would be next despite title future odds doesn't 593 00:26:57,480 --> 00:26:59,359 Speaker 3: make a whole lot of sense to me. Estually. 594 00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:03,240 Speaker 1: Interesting that Hamble's ahead of Gillespie, right, Yeah. 595 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:05,840 Speaker 3: I assume Lespie would have been as well. Baycon's at 596 00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:08,280 Speaker 3: ten to one. Remy Martin twelve to one. Jim mentioned 597 00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:11,720 Speaker 3: he just won most Outstanding Player of the Midwest Regional. 598 00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:14,520 Speaker 3: He just won it. He was clearly the best player 599 00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:18,840 Speaker 3: in that foursome Matthew that we watched live, Roach Love, 600 00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:23,080 Speaker 3: Manic Griffin, Williams all twenty to one. And then you 601 00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:27,480 Speaker 3: have Justin Moore and Wendell Moore, right, Wendell Moore, excuse me, 602 00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:30,119 Speaker 3: Wendell Moore and Christian Brown at twenty five to one. 603 00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:31,240 Speaker 3: Probably wouldn't take those. 604 00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:31,439 Speaker 1: But I do. 605 00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:33,640 Speaker 4: I do love the idea of Villanova winning and then 606 00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:36,320 Speaker 4: giving it to Justin Moore for his inspirational story on 607 00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:39,720 Speaker 4: the side less, I think Rebby Martin's the best bet 608 00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:40,320 Speaker 4: for sure. 609 00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:43,720 Speaker 3: Bank here of two seventy five that that's just not 610 00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:46,040 Speaker 3: enough value in my opinion. 611 00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:48,639 Speaker 2: I guess they'll worry with Martin is maybe minutes, but 612 00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,240 Speaker 2: he's played twenty six, twenty one, twenty nine, twenty seven, 613 00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:51,880 Speaker 2: twenty four. 614 00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:55,440 Speaker 4: I said he just won the regional Player of the Year, 615 00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:58,280 Speaker 4: like a player of the of the East, so it's 616 00:27:58,320 --> 00:27:59,360 Speaker 4: it's certainly possible. 617 00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:03,880 Speaker 3: Any other player props, guys Midwest, Yes, any other player props. 618 00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,480 Speaker 3: I have exhausted my list personally to Matt, I know 619 00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:08,520 Speaker 3: you're looking at a few things. Jim, possibly as well. 620 00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:09,480 Speaker 3: I'll go to Matt first. 621 00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:12,480 Speaker 2: I'll give one more Kai Brady Manic twenty to one 622 00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,359 Speaker 2: for most outstanding player. I think he is the Duke 623 00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:19,879 Speaker 2: Killer potentially, especially well just against man Or Zone. The 624 00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:21,280 Speaker 2: one thing with Duke Zone, I was talking to my 625 00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:24,119 Speaker 2: buddy Mitch offline, like Duke's wings come up way too 626 00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:26,879 Speaker 2: high and they leave the corner wide open sometimes and 627 00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:31,520 Speaker 2: Manic corner threes. I just have visions of butt naked 628 00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:33,960 Speaker 2: Brady Mannick braining threes in the corner in this game. 629 00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:37,080 Speaker 2: So I think he could be a duke killer and 630 00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:41,040 Speaker 2: potentially carry that momentum fourth into the title game. So 631 00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:42,680 Speaker 2: twenty one is a pretty good value bet there. 632 00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:45,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, I sort of buy that. I've been loving Manic 633 00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,480 Speaker 4: all tournament. I think I would have been fine with 634 00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:50,680 Speaker 4: him winning most Outstanding Player of that region. I think 635 00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:54,000 Speaker 4: bay Cat one because of rebounds and he had he 636 00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:56,560 Speaker 4: had like twenty in the Saint Peter's games. 637 00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:56,960 Speaker 1: I get it. 638 00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,160 Speaker 4: But the one other player prop I'll give, and it's 639 00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:01,760 Speaker 4: kind of harping on the same note I've been on 640 00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:04,480 Speaker 4: is Remy Martin over twelve and a half points against 641 00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:07,840 Speaker 4: Villa Nova. It's plus money plus one tenant DraftKings. What 642 00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:10,280 Speaker 4: I saw, Like I said, I think he's going to 643 00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:12,480 Speaker 4: be in position to score a bunch. I think Villano 644 00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:14,720 Speaker 4: is gonna roll out the red carpet and say, we 645 00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:17,720 Speaker 4: believe we can kind of outduel you one v one 646 00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:21,480 Speaker 4: and Dixon was great against the Houston guards. Shed and 647 00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:24,720 Speaker 4: Edwards couldn't really create against him. But this is like 648 00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:27,320 Speaker 4: what Martin is made for one v one scoring. He's 649 00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:29,880 Speaker 4: a terrific creator. I think he gets over that twelve 650 00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:32,080 Speaker 4: and a half points there Kai for the semi final 651 00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:32,840 Speaker 4: round against. 652 00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:37,360 Speaker 3: Nova love it Fellas. That does it for our podcast here. 653 00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:40,080 Speaker 3: Thank you again for joining us on the Big Bets 654 00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:44,040 Speaker 3: on Campus podcast. Hey, we'll be back on video form 655 00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:48,120 Speaker 3: for Action Network this week. Stay tuned till then, please 656 00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:50,360 Speaker 3: enjoy the Final four. We'll see you next time.