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Speaker 3: Welcome in episode one oh five What's Right with Nick Right?
Speaker 3: Our week fourteen gambling show, and I gotta tell you
Speaker 3: it's a show I've been dreading all week. Been very
Speaker 3: excited for all the different media this week because a
Speaker 3: couple weeks ago we didn't have the full run of
Speaker 3: podcasts or TV shows because of the World Cup and Thanksgiving.
Speaker 3: Last week we had the full run of podcasts, but
Speaker 3: we didn't have the full run of TV shows because
Speaker 3: of the World Cup. And all week long, there's been
Speaker 3: so many interesting, exciting things to talk about. The Lakers
Speaker 3: are alive again. The Chiefs actually lost, which makes them
Speaker 3: more interesting to talk about. There's all of a sudden
Speaker 3: Eagles fans hate me once again. There's so many fun things,
Speaker 3: but this show is, you know, I was forced to
Speaker 3: do some serious soul searching and look in the mirror
Speaker 3: and figure out where things have gone awroyd, because all
Speaker 3: year long the picks have been consistently mediocre. Whereas demons
Speaker 3: would say mid, the picks have been very mid this year.
Speaker 3: But what I'd said was we had avoid avoided the
Speaker 3: pratfalls and pitfalls of a one in four, of a
Speaker 3: disastrous zero for five, and because of that, we were
Speaker 3: right around five hundred couple games under with the ability
Speaker 3: for a late season push. And then Sunday happened, and
Speaker 3: we can throw them up there and show you Sunday
Speaker 3: we went oh and five, one and five, and easily
Speaker 3: could have gone oh and six. The only victory was
Speaker 3: a twenty twenty overtime tie where I had the Giants
Speaker 3: getting two and a half points. I said, Kenny Pickett
Speaker 3: shouldn't be the favorite on the road against anyone. They
Speaker 3: went out right. I said, the Chargers are desperate, they
Speaker 3: have to win. The Raiders dominated that football game. I said,
Speaker 3: Kansas City minus two was my favorite bet of the year.
Speaker 3: They lose outright, I gave you a bonus pick. I
Speaker 3: couldn't stay away from Jacksonville, laying one against the lowly Lions.
Speaker 3: The lowly Lions, the Lions, I think we're up thirty
Speaker 3: to six. And then also we had the one game
Speaker 3: that I felt a little unlucky on Colts Cowboys, where
Speaker 3: the Colts score a touchdown late in the third quarter,
Speaker 3: go for two to tie the game up. I'm getting
Speaker 3: eleven and a half points, and the Cowboys respond to
Speaker 3: that by scoring thirty three consecutive points thirty three to
Speaker 3: nothing in the fourth quarter. First time in NFL history
Speaker 3: that's happened to win the game by thirty five points.
Speaker 3: So I had to ask myself some hard questions because
Speaker 3: early in the year I had been getting unlucky in
Speaker 3: some spots. The process was sound. This Sunday, there was
Speaker 3: no unluckiness. They were just terrible, awful, no good picks
Speaker 3: in a weekend that everybody made money but me, because
Speaker 3: every favorite this past weekend one outright, except for my
Speaker 3: bet of the year of the Kansas City Chiefs. So
Speaker 3: what I did this week was very simple. I went
Speaker 3: back to an old school method of on Tuesday morning,
Speaker 3: looking at all the games, writing down what I believe
Speaker 3: the point spread would be should be, and picking then
Speaker 3: whichever one's the point spread that the actual listed point
Speaker 3: spread was off by more than two points, those became
Speaker 3: my selections, with one exception where the point spread was
Speaker 3: off by so much I threw it in the be
Speaker 3: careful category. So we have five picks this week. We
Speaker 3: will break them down as such. I will tell you
Speaker 3: what I thought the line was going to be, what
Speaker 3: the line actually is, and we will go with that.
Speaker 3: How's that sound demand before we get to the actual picks,
Speaker 3: because you haven't said anything yet.
Speaker 2: This show sounds good man? What I mean? Uh, I'm
Speaker 2: hoping this process is successful.
Speaker 3: Why don't you, as Chris Brussard, my television partner, would say,
Speaker 3: put some bass in your voice and say it with
Speaker 3: your chest. What you said to me moments before we
Speaker 3: went on the air.
Speaker 2: But that I'm going to start doing my own my
Speaker 2: own five picks.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and why are they're gonna start doing your own five.
Speaker 2: Picks to see if I end up doing No.
Speaker 3: That's not what you said.
Speaker 4: What you said was, oh, go ahead, I don't want
Speaker 4: to put my picks on here.
Speaker 2: Initially, no, because you did say that no shame.
Speaker 3: But there it is. He said, Now that I know
Speaker 3: that we have no shame, there's no embarrassment in going
Speaker 3: one in five, I might as well start doing it too.
Speaker 3: Are are you going to start that this week? Or
Speaker 3: is it now?
Speaker 2: Honestly?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean because I've already I've already seen a
Speaker 4: couple of games on here that uh okay, but they're
Speaker 4: in they're in conflicting categories.
Speaker 3: Oh great, I'm excited that.
Speaker 2: You know what.
Speaker 3: That's the bulletin board material I needed to get back
Speaker 3: on track this week fourteen. So we have fourteen, fifteen, sixteen,
Speaker 3: seventeen eighteen. We have five regular season weeks left. That's
Speaker 3: twenty five games. If I go fifteen and ten the
Speaker 3: rest of the way, I'm still below five hundred. That's unacceptable.
Speaker 3: So I need to go What is the math on this?
Speaker 3: If I go sixteen and nine, I finished the year
Speaker 3: at five hundred, So eighteen and seven is what we're
Speaker 3: shooting for over the final five weeks. Eighteen and seven
Speaker 3: would be a nice healthy Is that right?
Speaker 4: Boy?
Speaker 3: Is that right? That's seventy two percent against the spread.
Speaker 3: That's hard. Yeah, that's really hard.
Speaker 2: Eight.
Speaker 3: I don't have to go eighteen and seven though, So
Speaker 3: can't I go seventeen and eight? Yeah? I said, yeah,
Speaker 3: seventeen and eight would be Yeah, seventeen and eight's would
Speaker 3: I have to go? That's a much more manageable sixty
Speaker 3: eight percent against the spread. Seventeen and eight would put
Speaker 3: me on the season two games above five hundred, which
Speaker 3: I can sleep with. Seventeen and eight is what we're
Speaker 3: shooting for, So that would mean we need over the
Speaker 3: final five weeks, three three and two weeks and two
Speaker 3: four and one weeks, or mix a couple five and
Speaker 3: oh's in there and give usselves the little breathing room.
Speaker 3: We start this week with the Jets at the Bills.
Speaker 3: I saw this game. I said, that's gonna be Buffalo
Speaker 3: minus seven. It is Buffalo minus nine and a half.
Speaker 3: That is far too many points. We are taking the
Speaker 3: Jets plus the nine and a half. The reason is
Speaker 3: as follows, the Buffalo Bills have not blown anyone out
Speaker 3: in months. Okay, every is still so high on the
Speaker 3: Bills for what they once were the Buffalo Bills. Let
Speaker 3: me just remind you the last time they truly blew
Speaker 3: someone out would have been the game against the Steelers
Speaker 3: on October ninth. Since then, they beat the Chiefs by four,
Speaker 3: They beat the Packers by ten in a game they
Speaker 3: should have blown out the Packers. You remember, you won
Speaker 3: some money on that game. They lost to these very Jets.
Speaker 3: They lost to the Vikings. They beat the Browns by eight,
Speaker 3: they beat the Bills by three, I'm the Lions by
Speaker 3: three on Thanksgiving, and they soundly beat the Patriots by fourteen.
Speaker 3: But even in that Patriot game, that game was a
Speaker 3: ten point game headed into the fourth quarter when the
Speaker 3: Patriots could do nothing all games. So I guess you'd
Speaker 3: probably say they did blow out the Patriots, But to me,
Speaker 3: it was not an overwhelmingly impressive offensive performance. The last
Speaker 3: time these two teams played, Josh Allen struggled immensely. Now
Speaker 3: everyone blamed it on the elbow, and maybe the elbow
Speaker 3: had something to do with it, but he struggled immensely.
Speaker 3: The Jets, on the other hand, moved the ball just fine,
Speaker 3: including the final drive of the game going the length
Speaker 3: of the field for the win.
Speaker 4: But what they have Mike White now, a less experienced quarterback.
Speaker 4: It's a big ask for him to get the game
Speaker 4: that close, you know.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but he's far better than Zach Wilson, who I
Speaker 3: would argue Zach Wilson's game against the Bills the first
Speaker 3: time might be the best game of the dude's career.
Speaker 3: He had one hundred and fifty yards, but no turnovers,
Speaker 3: a one to one rating, drove the ball down the
Speaker 3: field at the end. I think that in the Jets,
Speaker 3: by the way, that was a gutsy performance by them
Speaker 3: against the Vikings last week. They ended up coming up short,
Speaker 3: but they easily could have won. If Braxon Burials holds
Speaker 3: onto that football, they do win. And the Bills, there's
Speaker 3: a weird thing happening with Buffalo. I don't want to
Speaker 3: spend too much time on it because I addressed it
Speaker 3: a bit on Thursday Show and I dressed it on TV.
Speaker 3: So much of the media is so shameless when it
Speaker 3: comes to when the Bills added von Miller, the commentary
Speaker 3: understandably was, I think this is the missing piece that
Speaker 3: puts them over the top. And when the Bills beat
Speaker 3: the Chiefs and the Bills early in the year looked
Speaker 3: like a juggernaut, folks were saying the difference is von
Speaker 3: Miller and they were right. Von Miller is now done
Speaker 3: for the year. It was announced on Wednesday with a
Speaker 3: blown acl And do you know what the commentary is, Oh,
Speaker 3: they'll be fine. Square that circle. He's the missing piece
Speaker 3: in my opinion. He had been their best player all season.
Speaker 3: Now he's done for the year. Oh, it's no problem.
Speaker 3: I'll tell you right now. I wouldn't sit here if
Speaker 3: the Chiefs lost Travis Kelce. I wouldn't sit here and
Speaker 3: be like, Oh, they're fine. Say it's a massive loss
Speaker 3: someone wildly important for.
Speaker 2: Them offensive defense. Though Travis Kelce I feel like is
Speaker 2: a way.
Speaker 4: Bigger loss than losing von Miller. Like, even though von
Speaker 4: Miller might be the player that he is, I was.
Speaker 3: Just thinking, if you lost your the best player on
Speaker 3: your team, that's not your quarterback. So that's why I
Speaker 3: said Kelsey. But if the Chiefs lost Chris Jones, I
Speaker 3: would be concerned. And so it's a weird thing. It's
Speaker 3: too many points. Jets plus nine and a half. Cleveland
Speaker 3: at Cincy is the next game. I thought this would
Speaker 3: be SINCEY minus three and a half. It is SINCEY
Speaker 3: minus six. So here's what people need to understand. The
Speaker 3: one team Cleveland has owned over the last few years
Speaker 3: is the Cincinnati Bengals, even with Baker Mayfield. For some reason,
Speaker 3: Kevin Stefanski has owned the Bengals, and this year the Browns,
Speaker 3: as bad as they've been, played the Bengals and beat
Speaker 3: him thirty two to thirteen. Baker Mayfield when he was there,
Speaker 3: owned the Bengals. Cleveland, on the other hand, now does
Speaker 3: have Deshaun Watson at quarterback. Now, Deshaun was awful against
Speaker 3: the Texans. Awful the Browns, I don't believe scored an
Speaker 3: offensive touchdown. There's special teams and two defensive touchdowns. I
Speaker 3: imagine quite a bit of that was rust, quite a
Speaker 3: bit of that was nerves. Now, do I think DeShawn
Speaker 3: is gonna seamlessly become a top eight quarterback again? I
Speaker 3: don't do. I think that the two years off from
Speaker 3: football are is gonna be something that might forever alter
Speaker 3: his career. Yeah, do I think it's definitely something that
Speaker 3: you're gonna see the effects of throughout this season. I do.
Speaker 3: With all that said, Cincinnati is coming off back to
Speaker 3: back massive victories. They beat the Titans in I guess
Speaker 3: you could argue they're coming off three straight massive victories.
Speaker 3: Beating the Steelers, a divisional rival, beating the Titans in
Speaker 3: a tard fought game, and then beating the Chiefs a
Speaker 3: bit of a letdown spot. Cleveland, on the other hand,
Speaker 3: it didn't play well at all last week, found a
Speaker 3: way to win. This, to me is a traditional AFC
Speaker 3: North three point game. It's six points is way too
Speaker 3: many points. I like Cleveland getting the six go ahead.
Speaker 4: So you said that even Baker on the Bengals, why
Speaker 4: can't Patrick Mahomes do it? I think Baker Mayfield has
Speaker 4: some type of edge that Patrick Mahomes doesn't.
Speaker 3: I think it's actually a weird Stefanski that head to
Speaker 3: Cleveland what he's been able to do against the Bengals.
Speaker 3: But what you're saying is not ridiculous. And I do
Speaker 3: think that the Chiefs and Andy Reid need to look
Speaker 3: at the Cleveland offensive game plans against Cincinnati over the
Speaker 3: last three years and figure out what they're what they've
Speaker 3: done that the Chiefs have not been able to do,
Speaker 3: because it is baffling how Cleveland has done so well
Speaker 3: against Cincinnati and so mediocre against everyone else, and now
Speaker 3: Cincinnati has done seemingly so well against the whole AFC
Speaker 3: except for against Cleveland.
Speaker 2: Joe Burrows never beaten the Browns before.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's what I'm Yeah, the Browns beat go too
Speaker 3: and zero against him every year. It's the Browns stink.
Speaker 3: It's unbelievable. And so it's just too many points, all right.
Speaker 3: Next one, Seattle is hosting Carolina. I thought there's was
Speaker 3: gonna be Seattle minus six and a half. It is
Speaker 3: Seattle minus three and a.
Speaker 2: Half, which is kind of eerie.
Speaker 3: Why you think it's in those should maybe be category.
Speaker 4: It seemed like Vegas does know what they're talking about
Speaker 4: when it comes to these things which I wasn't like
Speaker 4: super sure of in the beginning.
Speaker 2: I mean, like doing the whole betting thing.
Speaker 3: But now that you've been hambling year, yeah, I definitely
Speaker 3: see it.
Speaker 2: It's so it's a little strange to me.
Speaker 3: I understand that. And there was a game, there's a
Speaker 3: game that we're gonna get to in the be carefuls
Speaker 3: that was so strange that I that I just stayed
Speaker 3: away from it. But and I said, I think I
Speaker 3: wrote down for this game six actually not six and
Speaker 3: a half. It's Seattle minus three. Vegas does not believe
Speaker 3: in Seattle. Vegas flatly thinks Seattle is not a good team.
Speaker 3: Fair enough, but we know Carolina is not a good team, right. Seattle,
Speaker 3: on the other hand, they just they just played the Rams,
Speaker 3: they did not play well, and they a way to win.
Speaker 3: This to me really is more about the Panthers and
Speaker 3: how much respect should we be giving the Panthers right now,
Speaker 3: And my answer is very little to none. I think
Speaker 3: Seattle's defense, which was awful early in the year, then
Speaker 3: played well for a stretch and now is regressed a bit,
Speaker 3: can have a bounce back spot against the wretched Carolina offense.
Speaker 3: Seattle needs this victory. Seattle also has I'm sure Pete
Speaker 3: Carroll has been preaching to them with the Jimmy g
Speaker 3: injury all of a sudden, their ability to win that division.
Speaker 3: I don't think they're going to win that division, but
Speaker 3: their ability to win that division is right in front
Speaker 3: of them, and also preaching to them, this is a
Speaker 3: must win spot for Seattle because of that. Giants Washington tie.
Speaker 3: Both of those teams theoretically could make the playoffs. Giants Washington, Seattle.
Speaker 3: Two of them are making the playoffs. One of them isn't.
Speaker 3: Seattle has the record edge right now, on the well,
Speaker 3: not really. They have the record edge on Washington. They
Speaker 3: are I guess a half game behind the Giants Giants
Speaker 3: seventy four and one, Seattle seven to five, Washington seventy
Speaker 3: five and one. But what Seattle knows is this after
Speaker 3: this week Niners, Chiefs that following me by the way Jets,
Speaker 3: and then the end the season with the Rams, who
Speaker 3: the Rams stink, but they'd struggled with him. I almost
Speaker 3: lost to him last week. This is a must win
Speaker 3: spot for Seattle, an absolute must win game for Seattle.
Speaker 3: I like Seattle win by at least four points Seattle
Speaker 3: minus three and a half. Next this game that I
Speaker 3: understand why the line is where it is, but it's wrong.
Speaker 3: San Francisco laying only three and a half against Tampa.
Speaker 3: There is no scenario that I can see where Tampa
Speaker 3: can move the football on San Francisco. So I love
Speaker 3: San Francisco even with Brock Purdy, because I think they
Speaker 3: could cover the three and a half by getting to
Speaker 3: seventeen points. And I think San Francisco, I think maybe
Speaker 3: they could cover the three and a half by getting
Speaker 3: to fourteen points. You're not gonna is Tampa can't run
Speaker 3: on anyone, and you're not gonna be able to throw
Speaker 3: on this Niners pass rush. Brady is gonna be in
Speaker 3: self preservation mode the entire game. Now, I understand the
Speaker 3: idea of you're talking about Brock Purty against this Tampa defense. No,
Speaker 3: I'm not talking about Christian McCaffrey, Deebo, Samuel Brandon Ayuk,
Speaker 3: and George Kittle against this Tampa defense. They're going to
Speaker 3: be San Francisco is gonna be running the football consistently,
Speaker 3: They're going to be getting off the field defensively and
Speaker 3: three and outs repeatedly. This to me if we did
Speaker 3: it on this show. Under let me see what the
Speaker 3: total for the game is, but the under would be
Speaker 3: the play in this game in addition to the side.
Speaker 3: The total in this game, my guess is it's forty
Speaker 3: one and a half. Let me see where it's at.
Speaker 3: How close? Oh my goodness, gracious, the total is thirty seven.
Speaker 3: What a tiny under. That's the third smallest under we've
Speaker 3: had in the league all year. Yeah, so maybe the
Speaker 3: under is not as strong of a play as I
Speaker 3: quite thought if it's at thirty seven. But I just
Speaker 3: don't see how Tampa moves the football and here's the
Speaker 3: other thing for Tampa. Because they stole a victory last
Speaker 3: week against the Saints, Tampa didn't have to have this game.
Speaker 3: Tampa doesn't have to have this game. They don't even
Speaker 3: have to have the next game against the Bengals. They
Speaker 3: then get Cardinals, Panthers, Falcons to end the year, and
Speaker 3: the NFC South is imploding around them. I just don't
Speaker 3: I thought this line should be San Francisco minus six.
Speaker 3: Even with brock perty it's San Francisco minus three and
Speaker 3: a half. All lay the three and a half. I
Speaker 3: do not think Tampa is a near equivalent team to
Speaker 3: San Francisco. And by the way, let's and I know
Speaker 3: they're not saying they're a near equivalent team because the
Speaker 3: game is the well, no, that's right, the game is
Speaker 3: in San Francisco. Let's not forget the fact. So they're saying,
Speaker 3: because you don't get a full three points for home
Speaker 3: field anymore, but you get at least two and a half.
Speaker 3: They're saying it's a one point game on a neutral field. No,
Speaker 3: it's not. You add to it that Tampa demanse, I
Speaker 3: know you don't love this, but it's a thing that
Speaker 3: long flight you gotta go cross country from Tampa all
Speaker 3: the way to San francs.
Speaker 4: I believe it from when it comes to Seattle to Germany.
Speaker 4: But when it comes from Tampa to where San Francisco,
Speaker 4: San Francisco, it's a.
Speaker 3: Long flight, long flight, Tom Brady.
Speaker 2: I've got a stat for you.
Speaker 4: Yeah, tell all right, So, first of all, Shanahan sucks
Speaker 4: is a favorite, and he's nine and twenty nine straight
Speaker 4: up without Jimmy Garoppolo as his quarterback. Seems like it
Speaker 4: might be a little bit of a track.
Speaker 3: That nine and twenty nine is wildly misleading. Here's why
Speaker 3: it's wildly misleading. Oh sweet, So CJ. Bethor Nick Mullins
Speaker 3: and Brian Hoyer. Okay, other than the couple of Trey
Speaker 3: Lance games with the quarterbacks, for the entirety of that
Speaker 3: nine and twenty nine, those are not NFL caliber quarterbacks.
Speaker 3: They've started no games essentially cumulatively since leaving San Francisco.
Speaker 3: Now you might say rock Perty's not NFO, But what
Speaker 3: are you laughing about?
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, I was gonna say something like that.
Speaker 3: Okay, we don't know that. We'll see. He looked actually
Speaker 3: quite good in the game this weekend.
Speaker 2: But we'll see.
Speaker 3: But the other part of that is Jimmy G got
Speaker 3: hurt at the That record incorporates the Niners before Nick
Speaker 3: Bosa even got there. They have a similar record with
Speaker 3: and without Jimmy G that they have with and without
Speaker 3: Nick Bosa. Nick Bosa's thirty six and sixteen, there are
Speaker 3: Kyle changers thirty six and sixteen when Nick Bosa plays.
Speaker 3: This Niners team is not the same caliber, either because
Speaker 3: of injury or because players hadn't arrived as the previous
Speaker 3: Niner teams that were devastated by injury plus didn't have
Speaker 3: Jimmy Garoppolo. And I'm not worried about that nine and
Speaker 3: twenty nine Tampa that offense. Now, I still believe Tampa
Speaker 3: can be a scary playoff team, but we're not in
Speaker 3: the playoffs yet. San Francisco should be favored by more
Speaker 3: than three and a half. We're laying the three and
Speaker 3: a half of San Francisco. And lastly, this line shocked
Speaker 3: me so much that when I saw it, I wanted
Speaker 3: to make sure Justin Herbert hadn't been injured and I
Speaker 3: didn't know it. The Chargers are getting three points against Miami.
Speaker 3: The Chargers are gonna win this game outright. That another
Speaker 3: by the way, long flight Miami all the way. Now,
Speaker 3: let me tell you something, East coast to West coast
Speaker 3: not as tough as West coast to east coast because
Speaker 3: the West coast to East coast usually involves a one
Speaker 3: pm kickoff for a team that their body clucks ten am.
Speaker 3: That's not the situation here, however, this is a must
Speaker 3: win game for the Chargers. Miami is stuck, you know,
Speaker 3: after being hot, got exposed a bit this past weekend.
Speaker 3: And there are certain things that play off, play out
Speaker 3: in storylines, and there have been far too many members
Speaker 3: of the media that have been puffing their chest out
Speaker 3: with the oh, I told you to a greater than Herbert,
Speaker 3: not a bad take when it's a horrible take. And
Speaker 3: this is a game where justin Herbert plays a great
Speaker 3: football game looks like a franchise quarterback. Tua struggles once again,
Speaker 3: still dealing with injuries on the offensive line, granted not
Speaker 3: as bad as the injuries last week. Miami. Some of
Speaker 3: the bloom is off the rows, if you will. After
Speaker 3: this weekend's game his national television Sunday Night Football, I
Speaker 3: thought it would be Chargers minus one it's Miami minus three.
Speaker 3: Give me the Chargers getting the three points.
Speaker 4: Hey, you gotta go watch Manuel Acho's good, bad and
Speaker 4: the ugly clip on Twitter, and then you gotta come
Speaker 4: back to this pick.
Speaker 3: I have listen. I have a lot of respect for Emmanuel.
Speaker 3: He's a colleague in a pal. I think to use
Speaker 3: a his Tua Justin Herbert opinion is going to age
Speaker 3: like milk. I think that it is going to be
Speaker 3: something that unfortunately now maybe mine will maybe we'll throw
Speaker 3: it at me, I think, and Colin Cowherd and I
Speaker 3: have both quietly tried to talk a Manuel out of
Speaker 3: this emit. He is entrenched. I do not think it
Speaker 3: is going to age well. I think it is insane
Speaker 3: to believe that Tua is better than Justin Herbert, and
Speaker 3: I think Sunday Night will be evidence of that. And
Speaker 3: so I like the Chargers to win. I like the
Speaker 3: Chargers obviously the cover of the three and there it
Speaker 3: is five Picks of the week, Jets plus nine and
Speaker 3: a half, Cleveland plus six, Seattle minus three and a half,
Speaker 3: San Francisco minus three and a half, and the Chargers
Speaker 3: plus three. We only have because there are six teams
Speaker 3: on a bye this week final bye week of the year,
Speaker 3: we only have a handful of games to get to
Speaker 3: in the final categories. We will or it might be.
Speaker 3: By the way, four teams on a buy. How many
Speaker 3: teams are on a buy this week? Four? Four teams
Speaker 3: are on a bye this week. No, it is six,
Speaker 3: thank you demanse. Six teams want to buy this week.
Speaker 3: So there's only thirteen total games. So we only have
Speaker 3: seven other games to get to because we don't do
Speaker 3: the Thursday night football games on this show. Even by
Speaker 3: the way, I do like the Raiders in tonight's Thursday
Speaker 3: Night football game, but that's you guys will have already
Speaker 3: seen the game, so do. Our stay aways are be
Speaker 3: carefuls and our perfectly priced with maybe our biggest be
Speaker 3: careful game of the year. That's all next, What's right?
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Speaker 3: All right, welcome back in What's Right with Nick Wright,
Speaker 3: Episode one oh five, our week fourteen gambling show. We
Speaker 3: got to get back on track, so we went through
Speaker 3: the old school Mike and the Mad Dog or Simmons
Speaker 3: and sal method of guessing the lines privately and using
Speaker 3: that to make our picks publicly. So we have our
Speaker 3: five picks Jets plus nine and a half, Seattle minus
Speaker 3: three and a half, Cleveland plus six, San Francisco minas
Speaker 3: three and a half, and the Chargers plus three. Now
Speaker 3: our three other categories stay aways beat Careful's in perfectly priced.
Speaker 3: Our three stayaways are Jacksonville at Tennessee, Houston at Dallas,
Speaker 3: and Baltimore at Pittsburgh. So Jacksonville at Tennessee Tennessee's laying
Speaker 3: four to stay away for a number reasons. One is
Speaker 3: Trevor's a little banged up, another is the Jags were
Speaker 3: so wildly disappointing against the Lions, and another is because
Speaker 3: you guys, Uh, won't let me bet the Jags anymore,
Speaker 3: so I have to stay away.
Speaker 4: From Yeah, I think the Jags should be in the
Speaker 4: perfectly priced category no matter what team they play from
Speaker 4: now on, play from now on?
Speaker 2: What do you mean, how bad they are? Every team's
Speaker 2: gonna cover on them.
Speaker 3: Oh, well, that's that's not perfectly price. You're saying that
Speaker 3: their opponent should be in the picks.
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 3: You think that Tennessee minus four? Oh, is that gonna
Speaker 3: be one of your plays?
Speaker 2: Buddy?
Speaker 3: You like the Titans. You like the fact that Trevor
Speaker 3: Lawrence has never beaten the Titans. You like all that. Okay,
Speaker 3: I here's the thing. A man's got to know his limitations.
Speaker 3: My analysis on the Jags thus far this year has
Speaker 3: been a touchoff, So I'm I'm not gonna argue with
Speaker 3: you on it. I'm simply saying it's a stay away.
Speaker 3: The Jags are gonna be in a stay away for
Speaker 3: me the rest of the year because every week I
Speaker 3: see him. Every week, I want to bet them, and
Speaker 3: I just need to stay away from him. I don't
Speaker 3: know why I want to bet the Jags so much,
Speaker 3: but I do. Once upon a time I did this
Speaker 3: with the Carolina Panthers with Cam Newton, and it worked
Speaker 3: out brilliantly for me. The year they went fifteen and
Speaker 3: one did not work out so brilliantly the next year.
Speaker 3: Sometimes one of these six foot six inch stallions of
Speaker 3: a quarterback. I just can't get past the fact that
Speaker 3: I just feel like they should win every game they play. Next,
Speaker 3: stay away Houston at Dallas. Dallas is laying sixteen and
Speaker 3: a half points. This is a stay away purely for
Speaker 3: this reason. It is irresponsible gambling. And when a line
Speaker 3: in the NFL is this big to not take the dog,
Speaker 3: to not take Houston, it is also irresponsible gamble to
Speaker 3: bet on Houston at this point in any context. They
Speaker 3: allowed zero defensive touch or offensive touchdowns against the Browns.
Speaker 3: They scored one defensive or special teams touchdown, and they
Speaker 3: still couldn't cover. That team is a total disaster. So
Speaker 3: I'm not allowed to lay sixteen and a half. I'm
Speaker 3: not gonna bet on Houston. So it's a stay away.
Speaker 4: Yeah, So I mean, and then they're run down there
Speaker 4: saying that Doubt was capable of blowing any team out
Speaker 4: by twenty on any given night, and Houston's really bad yeah,
Speaker 4: but that's also one of my picks.
Speaker 2: I'm taking Houston with the sixteen and a half.
Speaker 3: You know what, that's sharp gambling by taking it.
Speaker 2: That's a lot of points, man, it's a.
Speaker 3: Lot of points. They get up seven to nothing and
Speaker 3: all of a sudden, I feel like the game's over
Speaker 3: all right. Last one is Baltimore at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh laying
Speaker 3: two and a half. It's a stay away right now
Speaker 3: because of the uncertainty surrounding Lamar. It doesn't look like
Speaker 3: he's gonna play. He's probably not gonna play. But then
Speaker 3: there's also the question with a Lamar has been playing,
Speaker 3: is it that much of a downgrade Tyler Huntley, I
Speaker 3: don't know. The quarterback injury stuff always makes these games
Speaker 3: to stay away. For staying away now to the be
Speaker 3: careful Only two games in the be careful category Minnesota
Speaker 3: Detroit in Kansas City at Denver. The Minnesota Detroit line
Speaker 3: is one of the most outwardly disrespectful things I've ever seen.
Speaker 3: Vegas do Minnesota.
Speaker 4: I listen, it's because they beat wait, isn't Detroit the
Speaker 4: only team that beat them?
Speaker 2: Or the game hold on? Well?
Speaker 3: Minnesota this year has lost to the Philadelphia Eagles, and
Speaker 3: they're one other loss this year, trying to remember. I
Speaker 3: don't believe it was to Detroit. Maybe you're correct, but
Speaker 3: I don't believe that's correct. They're one of the loss
Speaker 3: this year came to the Cowboys. The Cowboys blow them out,
Speaker 3: so they have Minnesota is tending to Their losses are
Speaker 3: to the two teams most people think are the best
Speaker 3: teams of the conference, the Eagles and the Cowboys.
Speaker 4: The line just makes sense if Detroit did beat them
Speaker 4: earlier that season or something.
Speaker 3: You know they now they played earlier this season in
Speaker 3: Minnesota and Detroit. That was the game, if I'm not
Speaker 3: mistaken that inexplicably, Dan Campbell kicked like a fifty five
Speaker 3: yard field goal at the end, up three, and Minnesota
Speaker 3: came back and won. I don't believe in Minnesota. I
Speaker 3: don't think Minnesota is a very good team. However, the
Speaker 3: fact that Vegas is telling us they think Minnesota and
Speaker 3: Detroit are equivalent talent teams when Minnesota's it's not like
Speaker 3: Kirk Cousins or Justin Jefferson are hurt. It is why
Speaker 3: Foight started the year one in seven. Now I understand
Speaker 3: they've won four consecutive games. I give them credit for it.
Speaker 3: It is I thought this line was going to be
Speaker 3: Minnesota minus three. It is Detroit minus two and a half.
Speaker 3: It is so off and it is so clearly daring
Speaker 3: you to bet the Vikings that I have to put
Speaker 3: it in the be careful category. It is this is
Speaker 3: a ten and again. I don't think the Vikings are
Speaker 3: that good, but a ten and two team being a
Speaker 3: dog again, Jared boff in the Lions is wild.
Speaker 2: Vegas probably believes in Trevor Lawrence just as much as
Speaker 2: you do.
Speaker 3: What is that?
Speaker 4: Well that tell Trevor Lawrence Detroit just smacked the Okay,
Speaker 4: I get it.
Speaker 3: I understand what you're saying. Maybe that's what it is.
Speaker 3: I don't know what it is. That line is baffling,
Speaker 3: and so I'm just throwing it. It's so far out
Speaker 3: of the realm what I thought it would be. I'm
Speaker 3: throwing the be careful category, all right, last be careful?
Speaker 3: Kan City at Denver. Kent City is laying nine and
Speaker 3: a half points. So I know what people are going
Speaker 3: to be thinking on this, which is are the Chiefs
Speaker 3: gonna score twenty? Because if they are, that's enough to
Speaker 3: cover nine and a half against Denver. I mean, Denver's
Speaker 3: offense is going backwards. That Denver's offense, like we've gone
Speaker 3: through it a number of times on the show, but
Speaker 3: they've scored like two touchdowns in the last month. Last
Speaker 3: week they didn't get in the red zone once. But
Speaker 3: it's just I mean, it's just just impossible how bad
Speaker 3: that offense has been. Right, They're averaging less than fourteen
Speaker 3: points per game this year. The Chiefs are coming off
Speaker 3: and you know they're angry. I'm sure Kelsey feels like
Speaker 3: he blew that game against Cincinnati with the fumble. Mahomes
Speaker 3: is upset. However, historically the Chiefs never lose to Thecos,
Speaker 3: but the Broncos at least once a year play them tight.
Speaker 3: And because of that, and because the entire gambling public
Speaker 3: is going to be on the Chiefs minus nine and
Speaker 3: a half, I'm throwing it in the be careful category.
Speaker 4: So since you're a Chiefs fan, you don't want to
Speaker 4: get on the Denver line here, because everything that you
Speaker 4: just explain basically says like bet on Denver.
Speaker 3: Well maybe except everything I just said, it explains bet
Speaker 3: On Denver. Everything we watched from Denver this year says,
Speaker 3: if you're only getting nine and a half points, the
Speaker 3: moment the Chiefs get to fourteen, you're like, I might
Speaker 3: be screwed. Like if I need a touchdown to cover
Speaker 3: this thing, I might I might be screwed. So to me,
Speaker 3: it's to be careful and lastly, we'll be quick. Here
Speaker 3: the perfectly priced games Philly at the Giants, Philly laying
Speaker 3: exactly seven. That's exactly what it should be. That Philly
Speaker 3: has shown the ability and they must be respected, even
Speaker 3: if I don't think they're making the Super Bowl that
Speaker 3: right now, teams have massive issues dealing with their diverse
Speaker 3: offensive attack. They're on the road, though, and it's a
Speaker 3: divisional game, so they shouldn't be favored by more than
Speaker 3: a touchdown, but they also probably shouldn't be favored by
Speaker 3: less than a touchdown. Philly minus seven feels like the
Speaker 3: exact right number.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 4: Earlier you picked Watson and the Browns getting six them
Speaker 4: on the road because they felt like too many points
Speaker 4: for a divisional hundred dogs. Why not pick the Giants'
Speaker 4: dogs on this one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just think that there is the added element
Speaker 3: of Cleveland's ownership of Cincinnati over the last three years
Speaker 3: that does not apply here. And the fact that Philly,
Speaker 3: by the way, has true motivation in that Dallas could
Speaker 3: catch them, so Philly needs all these games. Giants obviously
Speaker 3: need as well. To me the numbers just right, and
Speaker 3: New England and Arizona, New England favor by a point
Speaker 3: and a half. Arizona has the better receivers, the better offense,
Speaker 3: the better quarterback. All the golf and coaching between Belichick
Speaker 3: and Kingsbury is so great. New England deserves to be
Speaker 3: a slight favorite, not a big favorite, not even a
Speaker 3: field goal favorite, a slight favorite, particularly on national TV
Speaker 3: on an extended week. For New England, it is an
Speaker 3: extra extended week. They go from Thursday all the way
Speaker 3: to a Monday, so for all those reasons. But I
Speaker 3: think Arizona, by the way, was off last week, so
Speaker 3: they both have extended weeks. But I don't know that
Speaker 3: Kingsbury and Kyler are cooking anything up this weekend. You know,
Speaker 3: on the extra time, New England minds a point and
Speaker 3: a half feels like the right the exact perfect price,
Speaker 3: all right there it is. We have to give the
Speaker 3: right move, which has just been a total disaster. We'll
Speaker 3: do that Demonse's got some Pixie's given you. I'll see
Speaker 3: if we've got a teaser to give you. We'll do
Speaker 3: all that next. What's Right? All right, Welcome back in
Speaker 3: What's Right with Nick Wright, Episode one, Week fourteen, Gambling Show.
Speaker 3: Our five picks this week are the Jets plus nine
Speaker 3: and a half, Cleveland plus six, Seattle minus three and
Speaker 3: a half, San Francisco minus three and a half, and
Speaker 3: the Chargers plus three. Our right move of the week
Speaker 3: is the Chargers plus three against Miami. I believe they
Speaker 3: are going to win outright. Oh they they changed it
Speaker 3: to the wrong move and put crying Jordan on my face.
Speaker 3: That's how they're doing me. Now, that's tough. That is tough.
Speaker 3: It's deserved. I mean, god, damn three and ten on
Speaker 3: the right move. So far this year, it's such a
Speaker 3: disaster on regular picks, I am twenty six, twenty six
Speaker 3: and two on the right move, I'm three and ten.
Speaker 3: It's the entirety of my below five hundred record from
Speaker 3: the right move. But we're rolling with the Chargers plus
Speaker 3: three because we believe the Chargers are going to win outright.
Speaker 3: Before I give my exotic, I do have a great
Speaker 3: seventeen or seven point teaser, not seventeen point teaser. Do
Speaker 3: you have picks you want to give out?
Speaker 2: All right, so I'm obviously going with that.
Speaker 4: Houston and Dallas getting the sixteen and a half, uh huh,
Speaker 4: and Tennessee.
Speaker 3: Plus four or minus four against Mines.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Jackson getting the four, I mean, but yeah, I'm
Speaker 2: saying it the other way.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 4: And then I also want both of those games in
Speaker 4: the be careful category. I want Denver plus the nine
Speaker 4: and a half, okay, and I also want Minnesota minus
Speaker 4: the two and a half.
Speaker 2: Okay. Are you gonna do what I just honestly, yeah,
Speaker 2: I will go for a fifth one here.
Speaker 3: You don't have to if you only feel good about four,
Speaker 3: just do the four.
Speaker 4: Yeah, okay, So we'll do the four, and this this
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh one is the bonus one.
Speaker 3: What do you mean the Pittsburgh one is the bonus one.
Speaker 2: It's just basically none at all. I'll do the four.
Speaker 3: Yeah there, what the four? You feel good about?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: So Demonte's picks are Houston plus sixteen and a half yep,
Speaker 3: Tennessee minus.
Speaker 2: Four, YEP, Denver plus nine and a half.
Speaker 3: Denver plus nine and a half, and Minnesota minus two
Speaker 3: and a half. So none in direct conflict with my picks. No,
Speaker 3: but but they're just.
Speaker 2: They were just a CIEs stay away.
Speaker 3: But my exotic is very simple, an old school two
Speaker 3: team seven point teaser. We are teasing the Kansas City
Speaker 3: Chiefs down to minus two and a half, so they
Speaker 3: just have to win by a field goal, and we
Speaker 3: are teasing the Chargers up to plus ten, so they
Speaker 3: just have to win or stay within ten points. That's
Speaker 3: a two team seven point teaser. Is minus one forty,
Speaker 3: so you gotta lay a significant big there, but be
Speaker 3: one hundred and forty bucks to win one hundred. That's
Speaker 3: our two team seven point teaser for the week. What's
Speaker 3: the offer this week?
Speaker 2: All right? I call this one? They uh, what if
Speaker 2: rock Party isn't good? Special?
Speaker 4: You can bet if Seattle Seahawks win the NFC West
Speaker 4: plus three hundred?
Speaker 2: Are you taking that?
Speaker 3: I'm not taking that, And it's not because I necessarily
Speaker 3: believe brock Purty is good. It is purely because I
Speaker 3: don't think there's enough value there given the fact that
Speaker 3: Seattle what they have after this week is the Niners,
Speaker 3: the Chiefs, and the Jets in three consecutive weeks. And
Speaker 3: I understand having the Niners could be beneficial for them
Speaker 3: because they win. However, they already lost once to the
Speaker 3: Niners this year and there even if they win.
Speaker 2: That out of the country game, wasn't that the game
Speaker 2: that was out of the country.
Speaker 3: A lot of games out of the country. I'm not
Speaker 3: sure if that one was or not.
Speaker 2: To be honest with you.
Speaker 3: Okay, are you talking about the one where Seattle led
Speaker 3: to go to Germany? No, it wouldn't. That wasn't a
Speaker 3: Seattle led to go to Germany against Tampa. They wouldn't
Speaker 3: be out.
Speaker 2: Of the country twice.
Speaker 3: Even if Seattle beats the Niners, they don't hold the tiebreaker.
Speaker 3: They would have the same divisional record in the same
Speaker 3: head to head, So I don't even know what the
Speaker 3: next tiebreaker would be. Their probably conference record, and they
Speaker 3: don't hold that tiebreaker. So even if they were to
Speaker 3: beat the Niners, they could still not necessarily win the
Speaker 3: division and so the and Matt is adding if the
Speaker 3: Bucks beat San Francisco this week, in San Francisco beats
Speaker 3: the Panthers, then Seattle all of a sudden becomes the favorite. Okay,
Speaker 3: the Bucks are not gonna beat San Francisco this week, however,
Speaker 3: and if you think that's gonna happen, then just bet
Speaker 3: that instead of betting Seattle plus three hundred to win.
Speaker 3: I don't like it. I'm rejecting this.
Speaker 2: So can.
Speaker 4: I also add in that if you parlay the Texans
Speaker 4: on the money line, it goes up to plus forty
Speaker 4: seven hundred.
Speaker 3: Okay, you add the Texans on the money line to
Speaker 3: any of your bets this week and it's gonna go crazy. Unfortunately,
Speaker 3: losing bets are worth zero, so it doesn't matter what
Speaker 3: the odds are. The Texans are not winning that game
Speaker 3: out right, you know what. Maybe they will, but I'm not.
Speaker 3: I'm having nothing to do with it. That is our
Speaker 3: Week fourteen gambling show. Hopefully you didn't listen to me
Speaker 3: last week. Hopefully we all do better this week. Talk
Speaker 3: to you guys on Monday. What's right