WEBVTT - Week 14 NFL Bets: Nick's Picks 0:00:00.440 --> 0:00:02.800 If your football team had one option in their playbook, 0:00:03.000 --> 0:00:05.800 the results probably wouldn't be great. The same could be 0:00:05.840 --> 0:00:09.440 said for your investments. Cibo index options like SPX and 0:00:09.600 --> 0:00:12.920 XSP can help expand your investing strategies with cash settlement 0:00:13.080 --> 0:00:15.840 and potential tax advantages. If you're ready for a more 0:00:15.920 --> 0:00:19.160 dynamic game plan, head to Better with Options dot Com. 0:00:19.280 --> 0:00:22.880 Cebo life is better with options, Your investments. 0:00:22.440 --> 0:00:23.119 Could be too. 0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:26.159 There are risks associated with CBO company products. Review the 0:00:26.160 --> 0:00:40.680 disclosures and disclaimers at CBO dot com. Slash us underscore disclaimers. 0:00:42.040 --> 0:00:44.920 Welcome in episode one oh five What's Right with Nick Right? 0:00:46.080 --> 0:00:50.600 Our week fourteen gambling show, and I gotta tell you 0:00:51.600 --> 0:00:55.240 it's a show I've been dreading all week. Been very 0:00:55.240 --> 0:00:58.480 excited for all the different media this week because a 0:00:58.520 --> 0:01:01.920 couple weeks ago we didn't have the full run of 0:01:02.000 --> 0:01:06.440 podcasts or TV shows because of the World Cup and Thanksgiving. 0:01:07.120 --> 0:01:10.520 Last week we had the full run of podcasts, but 0:01:10.600 --> 0:01:12.640 we didn't have the full run of TV shows because 0:01:12.640 --> 0:01:16.160 of the World Cup. And all week long, there's been 0:01:16.200 --> 0:01:20.320 so many interesting, exciting things to talk about. The Lakers 0:01:20.319 --> 0:01:24.200 are alive again. The Chiefs actually lost, which makes them 0:01:24.240 --> 0:01:27.759 more interesting to talk about. There's all of a sudden 0:01:27.840 --> 0:01:31.760 Eagles fans hate me once again. There's so many fun things, 0:01:33.000 --> 0:01:37.720 but this show is, you know, I was forced to 0:01:37.760 --> 0:01:42.360 do some serious soul searching and look in the mirror 0:01:42.400 --> 0:01:44.959 and figure out where things have gone awroyd, because all 0:01:45.040 --> 0:01:51.600 year long the picks have been consistently mediocre. Whereas demons 0:01:51.760 --> 0:01:56.960 would say mid, the picks have been very mid this year. 0:01:57.080 --> 0:02:01.000 But what I'd said was we had avoid avoided the 0:02:01.040 --> 0:02:08.000 pratfalls and pitfalls of a one in four, of a 0:02:08.120 --> 0:02:12.040 disastrous zero for five, and because of that, we were 0:02:12.200 --> 0:02:18.359 right around five hundred couple games under with the ability 0:02:19.400 --> 0:02:27.880 for a late season push. And then Sunday happened, and 0:02:27.960 --> 0:02:32.600 we can throw them up there and show you Sunday 0:02:34.000 --> 0:02:37.760 we went oh and five, one and five, and easily 0:02:37.880 --> 0:02:43.160 could have gone oh and six. The only victory was 0:02:43.200 --> 0:02:48.000 a twenty twenty overtime tie where I had the Giants 0:02:48.040 --> 0:02:52.000 getting two and a half points. I said, Kenny Pickett 0:02:52.400 --> 0:02:54.840 shouldn't be the favorite on the road against anyone. They 0:02:54.880 --> 0:02:59.560 went out right. I said, the Chargers are desperate, they 0:02:59.680 --> 0:03:06.640 have to win. The Raiders dominated that football game. I said, 0:03:06.760 --> 0:03:11.720 Kansas City minus two was my favorite bet of the year. 0:03:13.880 --> 0:03:17.680 They lose outright, I gave you a bonus pick. I 0:03:17.720 --> 0:03:24.880 couldn't stay away from Jacksonville, laying one against the lowly Lions. 0:03:25.520 --> 0:03:30.240 The lowly Lions, the Lions, I think we're up thirty 0:03:30.240 --> 0:03:35.600 to six. And then also we had the one game 0:03:35.640 --> 0:03:40.920 that I felt a little unlucky on Colts Cowboys, where 0:03:40.960 --> 0:03:45.680 the Colts score a touchdown late in the third quarter, 0:03:47.360 --> 0:03:50.200 go for two to tie the game up. I'm getting 0:03:50.320 --> 0:03:54.760 eleven and a half points, and the Cowboys respond to 0:03:54.840 --> 0:04:01.120 that by scoring thirty three consecutive points thirty three to 0:04:01.200 --> 0:04:04.120 nothing in the fourth quarter. First time in NFL history 0:04:04.400 --> 0:04:08.400 that's happened to win the game by thirty five points. 0:04:09.880 --> 0:04:15.520 So I had to ask myself some hard questions because 0:04:15.520 --> 0:04:17.599 early in the year I had been getting unlucky in 0:04:17.640 --> 0:04:21.560 some spots. The process was sound. This Sunday, there was 0:04:21.600 --> 0:04:27.760 no unluckiness. They were just terrible, awful, no good picks 0:04:28.080 --> 0:04:32.200 in a weekend that everybody made money but me, because 0:04:32.360 --> 0:04:38.000 every favorite this past weekend one outright, except for my 0:04:38.160 --> 0:04:41.719 bet of the year of the Kansas City Chiefs. So 0:04:41.800 --> 0:04:46.080 what I did this week was very simple. I went 0:04:46.200 --> 0:04:53.440 back to an old school method of on Tuesday morning, 0:04:54.520 --> 0:04:59.640 looking at all the games, writing down what I believe 0:04:59.800 --> 0:05:05.200 the point spread would be should be, and picking then 0:05:05.800 --> 0:05:09.600 whichever one's the point spread that the actual listed point 0:05:09.640 --> 0:05:15.320 spread was off by more than two points, those became 0:05:15.400 --> 0:05:19.479 my selections, with one exception where the point spread was 0:05:19.520 --> 0:05:22.719 off by so much I threw it in the be 0:05:22.839 --> 0:05:26.479 careful category. So we have five picks this week. We 0:05:26.520 --> 0:05:29.560 will break them down as such. I will tell you 0:05:29.600 --> 0:05:32.320 what I thought the line was going to be, what 0:05:32.360 --> 0:05:35.159 the line actually is, and we will go with that. 0:05:36.240 --> 0:05:39.160 How's that sound demand before we get to the actual picks, 0:05:39.160 --> 0:05:40.560 because you haven't said anything yet. 0:05:40.600 --> 0:05:47.080 This show sounds good man? What I mean? Uh, I'm 0:05:47.080 --> 0:05:49.240 hoping this process is successful. 0:05:49.360 --> 0:05:54.400 Why don't you, as Chris Brussard, my television partner, would say, 0:05:54.839 --> 0:05:57.760 put some bass in your voice and say it with 0:05:57.800 --> 0:06:01.000 your chest. What you said to me moments before we 0:06:01.040 --> 0:06:02.040 went on the air. 0:06:03.839 --> 0:06:05.719 But that I'm going to start doing my own my 0:06:05.800 --> 0:06:06.679 own five picks. 0:06:06.800 --> 0:06:09.680 Yeah, and why are they're gonna start doing your own five. 0:06:09.480 --> 0:06:12.560 Picks to see if I end up doing No. 0:06:12.520 --> 0:06:13.599 That's not what you said. 0:06:14.000 --> 0:06:18.600 What you said was, oh, go ahead, I don't want 0:06:18.600 --> 0:06:19.480 to put my picks on here. 0:06:19.520 --> 0:06:22.599 Initially, no, because you did say that no shame. 0:06:22.640 --> 0:06:24.760 But there it is. He said, Now that I know 0:06:24.839 --> 0:06:28.200 that we have no shame, there's no embarrassment in going 0:06:28.279 --> 0:06:31.880 one in five, I might as well start doing it too. 0:06:32.400 --> 0:06:34.280 Are are you going to start that this week? Or 0:06:34.320 --> 0:06:34.720 is it now? 0:06:34.880 --> 0:06:35.279 Honestly? 0:06:35.360 --> 0:06:37.279 Yeah, I mean because I've already I've already seen a 0:06:37.279 --> 0:06:40.560 couple of games on here that uh okay, but they're 0:06:40.600 --> 0:06:42.880 in they're in conflicting categories. 0:06:42.920 --> 0:06:45.280 Oh great, I'm excited that. 0:06:45.360 --> 0:06:45.720 You know what. 0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:50.400 That's the bulletin board material I needed to get back 0:06:50.440 --> 0:06:54.680 on track this week fourteen. So we have fourteen, fifteen, sixteen, 0:06:54.839 --> 0:06:58.960 seventeen eighteen. We have five regular season weeks left. That's 0:06:59.040 --> 0:07:05.760 twenty five games. If I go fifteen and ten the 0:07:05.800 --> 0:07:11.600 rest of the way, I'm still below five hundred. That's unacceptable. 0:07:12.160 --> 0:07:16.760 So I need to go What is the math on this? 0:07:17.640 --> 0:07:23.320 If I go sixteen and nine, I finished the year 0:07:24.160 --> 0:07:29.120 at five hundred, So eighteen and seven is what we're 0:07:29.120 --> 0:07:34.480 shooting for over the final five weeks. Eighteen and seven 0:07:35.000 --> 0:07:37.920 would be a nice healthy Is that right? 0:07:38.880 --> 0:07:39.120 Boy? 0:07:40.200 --> 0:07:45.080 Is that right? That's seventy two percent against the spread. 0:07:45.400 --> 0:07:51.720 That's hard. Yeah, that's really hard. 0:07:52.360 --> 0:07:52.600 Eight. 0:07:52.720 --> 0:07:55.160 I don't have to go eighteen and seven though, So 0:07:55.720 --> 0:07:58.160 can't I go seventeen and eight? Yeah? I said, yeah, 0:07:58.200 --> 0:08:02.000 seventeen and eight would be Yeah, seventeen and eight's would 0:08:02.000 --> 0:08:06.040 I have to go? That's a much more manageable sixty 0:08:06.080 --> 0:08:10.120 eight percent against the spread. Seventeen and eight would put 0:08:10.120 --> 0:08:13.400 me on the season two games above five hundred, which 0:08:13.440 --> 0:08:16.240 I can sleep with. Seventeen and eight is what we're 0:08:16.240 --> 0:08:19.680 shooting for, So that would mean we need over the 0:08:19.720 --> 0:08:24.640 final five weeks, three three and two weeks and two 0:08:24.880 --> 0:08:28.360 four and one weeks, or mix a couple five and 0:08:28.360 --> 0:08:30.640 oh's in there and give usselves the little breathing room. 0:08:30.920 --> 0:08:35.880 We start this week with the Jets at the Bills. 0:08:36.960 --> 0:08:40.200 I saw this game. I said, that's gonna be Buffalo 0:08:40.280 --> 0:08:45.280 minus seven. It is Buffalo minus nine and a half. 0:08:45.679 --> 0:08:49.160 That is far too many points. We are taking the 0:08:49.280 --> 0:08:52.480 Jets plus the nine and a half. The reason is 0:08:52.520 --> 0:08:56.520 as follows, the Buffalo Bills have not blown anyone out 0:08:57.240 --> 0:09:02.560 in months. Okay, every is still so high on the 0:09:02.600 --> 0:09:07.040 Bills for what they once were the Buffalo Bills. Let 0:09:07.080 --> 0:09:11.280 me just remind you the last time they truly blew 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:16.000 someone out would have been the game against the Steelers 0:09:16.600 --> 0:09:21.440 on October ninth. Since then, they beat the Chiefs by four, 0:09:21.920 --> 0:09:24.600 They beat the Packers by ten in a game they 0:09:24.640 --> 0:09:26.840 should have blown out the Packers. You remember, you won 0:09:26.960 --> 0:09:30.679 some money on that game. They lost to these very Jets. 0:09:31.440 --> 0:09:34.760 They lost to the Vikings. They beat the Browns by eight, 0:09:35.440 --> 0:09:37.960 they beat the Bills by three, I'm the Lions by 0:09:38.000 --> 0:09:42.359 three on Thanksgiving, and they soundly beat the Patriots by fourteen. 0:09:42.800 --> 0:09:47.240 But even in that Patriot game, that game was a 0:09:47.280 --> 0:09:50.480 ten point game headed into the fourth quarter when the 0:09:50.520 --> 0:09:54.079 Patriots could do nothing all games. So I guess you'd 0:09:54.160 --> 0:09:56.760 probably say they did blow out the Patriots, But to me, 0:09:56.840 --> 0:10:02.040 it was not an overwhelmingly impressive offensive performance. The last 0:10:02.040 --> 0:10:07.720 time these two teams played, Josh Allen struggled immensely. Now 0:10:07.760 --> 0:10:10.360 everyone blamed it on the elbow, and maybe the elbow 0:10:10.400 --> 0:10:12.880 had something to do with it, but he struggled immensely. 0:10:13.400 --> 0:10:17.479 The Jets, on the other hand, moved the ball just fine, 0:10:17.520 --> 0:10:20.920 including the final drive of the game going the length 0:10:20.960 --> 0:10:21.960 of the field for the win. 0:10:22.160 --> 0:10:26.240 But what they have Mike White now, a less experienced quarterback. 0:10:27.200 --> 0:10:28.760 It's a big ask for him to get the game 0:10:28.800 --> 0:10:29.560 that close, you know. 0:10:29.679 --> 0:10:33.440 Yeah, but he's far better than Zach Wilson, who I 0:10:33.440 --> 0:10:37.160 would argue Zach Wilson's game against the Bills the first 0:10:37.200 --> 0:10:39.440 time might be the best game of the dude's career. 0:10:40.440 --> 0:10:43.479 He had one hundred and fifty yards, but no turnovers, 0:10:43.679 --> 0:10:45.720 a one to one rating, drove the ball down the 0:10:45.720 --> 0:10:49.520 field at the end. I think that in the Jets, 0:10:49.520 --> 0:10:52.719 by the way, that was a gutsy performance by them 0:10:52.720 --> 0:10:55.439 against the Vikings last week. They ended up coming up short, 0:10:55.640 --> 0:10:58.160 but they easily could have won. If Braxon Burials holds 0:10:58.200 --> 0:11:03.480 onto that football, they do win. And the Bills, there's 0:11:03.520 --> 0:11:06.319 a weird thing happening with Buffalo. I don't want to 0:11:06.320 --> 0:11:08.720 spend too much time on it because I addressed it 0:11:08.760 --> 0:11:13.040 a bit on Thursday Show and I dressed it on TV. 0:11:14.320 --> 0:11:19.440 So much of the media is so shameless when it 0:11:19.480 --> 0:11:25.400 comes to when the Bills added von Miller, the commentary 0:11:25.640 --> 0:11:29.160 understandably was, I think this is the missing piece that 0:11:29.200 --> 0:11:32.280 puts them over the top. And when the Bills beat 0:11:32.360 --> 0:11:34.840 the Chiefs and the Bills early in the year looked 0:11:34.880 --> 0:11:39.200 like a juggernaut, folks were saying the difference is von 0:11:39.320 --> 0:11:43.960 Miller and they were right. Von Miller is now done 0:11:44.360 --> 0:11:47.200 for the year. It was announced on Wednesday with a 0:11:47.240 --> 0:11:51.280 blown acl And do you know what the commentary is, Oh, 0:11:51.320 --> 0:11:55.520 they'll be fine. Square that circle. He's the missing piece 0:11:56.040 --> 0:11:59.160 in my opinion. He had been their best player all season. 0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:02.880 Now he's done for the year. Oh, it's no problem. 0:12:03.240 --> 0:12:05.640 I'll tell you right now. I wouldn't sit here if 0:12:05.679 --> 0:12:09.560 the Chiefs lost Travis Kelce. I wouldn't sit here and 0:12:09.600 --> 0:12:12.840 be like, Oh, they're fine. Say it's a massive loss 0:12:13.320 --> 0:12:15.200 someone wildly important for. 0:12:15.120 --> 0:12:18.640 Them offensive defense. Though Travis Kelce I feel like is 0:12:18.679 --> 0:12:19.199 a way. 0:12:19.040 --> 0:12:21.719 Bigger loss than losing von Miller. Like, even though von 0:12:21.800 --> 0:12:24.199 Miller might be the player that he is, I was. 0:12:24.160 --> 0:12:26.840 Just thinking, if you lost your the best player on 0:12:26.880 --> 0:12:29.320 your team, that's not your quarterback. So that's why I 0:12:29.320 --> 0:12:32.679 said Kelsey. But if the Chiefs lost Chris Jones, I 0:12:32.720 --> 0:12:37.280 would be concerned. And so it's a weird thing. It's 0:12:37.280 --> 0:12:40.439 too many points. Jets plus nine and a half. Cleveland 0:12:40.800 --> 0:12:43.640 at Cincy is the next game. I thought this would 0:12:43.679 --> 0:12:46.800 be SINCEY minus three and a half. It is SINCEY 0:12:46.920 --> 0:12:53.040 minus six. So here's what people need to understand. The 0:12:53.240 --> 0:12:58.680 one team Cleveland has owned over the last few years 0:12:59.600 --> 0:13:05.560 is the Cincinnati Bengals, even with Baker Mayfield. For some reason, 0:13:06.040 --> 0:13:10.640 Kevin Stefanski has owned the Bengals, and this year the Browns, 0:13:10.760 --> 0:13:14.040 as bad as they've been, played the Bengals and beat 0:13:14.080 --> 0:13:18.040 him thirty two to thirteen. Baker Mayfield when he was there, 0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:23.120 owned the Bengals. Cleveland, on the other hand, now does 0:13:23.240 --> 0:13:28.000 have Deshaun Watson at quarterback. Now, Deshaun was awful against 0:13:28.040 --> 0:13:31.520 the Texans. Awful the Browns, I don't believe scored an 0:13:31.520 --> 0:13:36.040 offensive touchdown. There's special teams and two defensive touchdowns. I 0:13:36.520 --> 0:13:40.040 imagine quite a bit of that was rust, quite a 0:13:40.040 --> 0:13:42.760 bit of that was nerves. Now, do I think DeShawn 0:13:43.200 --> 0:13:46.840 is gonna seamlessly become a top eight quarterback again? I 0:13:46.920 --> 0:13:49.480 don't do. I think that the two years off from 0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:53.800 football are is gonna be something that might forever alter 0:13:53.960 --> 0:13:57.240 his career. Yeah, do I think it's definitely something that 0:13:57.280 --> 0:13:59.920 you're gonna see the effects of throughout this season. I do. 0:14:00.400 --> 0:14:06.720 With all that said, Cincinnati is coming off back to 0:14:06.840 --> 0:14:12.439 back massive victories. They beat the Titans in I guess 0:14:12.440 --> 0:14:15.360 you could argue they're coming off three straight massive victories. 0:14:15.559 --> 0:14:20.360 Beating the Steelers, a divisional rival, beating the Titans in 0:14:20.400 --> 0:14:23.640 a tard fought game, and then beating the Chiefs a 0:14:23.640 --> 0:14:26.760 bit of a letdown spot. Cleveland, on the other hand, 0:14:27.440 --> 0:14:31.280 it didn't play well at all last week, found a 0:14:31.280 --> 0:14:35.040 way to win. This, to me is a traditional AFC 0:14:35.160 --> 0:14:39.960 North three point game. It's six points is way too 0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:44.000 many points. I like Cleveland getting the six go ahead. 0:14:44.840 --> 0:14:49.120 So you said that even Baker on the Bengals, why 0:14:49.120 --> 0:14:52.280 can't Patrick Mahomes do it? I think Baker Mayfield has 0:14:52.320 --> 0:14:54.840 some type of edge that Patrick Mahomes doesn't. 0:14:55.080 --> 0:15:00.240 I think it's actually a weird Stefanski that head to 0:15:00.360 --> 0:15:04.560 Cleveland what he's been able to do against the Bengals. 0:15:04.760 --> 0:15:10.520 But what you're saying is not ridiculous. And I do 0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:14.080 think that the Chiefs and Andy Reid need to look 0:15:14.120 --> 0:15:18.880 at the Cleveland offensive game plans against Cincinnati over the 0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:22.240 last three years and figure out what they're what they've 0:15:22.280 --> 0:15:24.080 done that the Chiefs have not been able to do, 0:15:24.480 --> 0:15:28.840 because it is baffling how Cleveland has done so well 0:15:28.880 --> 0:15:33.200 against Cincinnati and so mediocre against everyone else, and now 0:15:33.240 --> 0:15:38.360 Cincinnati has done seemingly so well against the whole AFC 0:15:39.000 --> 0:15:40.440 except for against Cleveland. 0:15:40.520 --> 0:15:42.360 Joe Burrows never beaten the Browns before. 0:15:42.520 --> 0:15:45.240 Yeah, that's what I'm Yeah, the Browns beat go too 0:15:45.280 --> 0:15:48.680 and zero against him every year. It's the Browns stink. 0:15:49.160 --> 0:15:53.200 It's unbelievable. And so it's just too many points, all right. 0:15:53.760 --> 0:16:00.240 Next one, Seattle is hosting Carolina. I thought there's was 0:16:00.280 --> 0:16:03.480 gonna be Seattle minus six and a half. It is 0:16:03.600 --> 0:16:05.640 Seattle minus three and a. 0:16:05.520 --> 0:16:08.040 Half, which is kind of eerie. 0:16:08.400 --> 0:16:12.600 Why you think it's in those should maybe be category. 0:16:12.680 --> 0:16:14.960 It seemed like Vegas does know what they're talking about 0:16:15.000 --> 0:16:16.720 when it comes to these things which I wasn't like 0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:18.680 super sure of in the beginning. 0:16:18.680 --> 0:16:20.080 I mean, like doing the whole betting thing. 0:16:20.240 --> 0:16:22.400 But now that you've been hambling year, yeah, I definitely 0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:22.800 see it. 0:16:23.120 --> 0:16:25.320 It's so it's a little strange to me. 0:16:26.240 --> 0:16:29.120 I understand that. And there was a game, there's a 0:16:29.160 --> 0:16:30.920 game that we're gonna get to in the be carefuls 0:16:30.920 --> 0:16:34.120 that was so strange that I that I just stayed 0:16:34.120 --> 0:16:36.560 away from it. But and I said, I think I 0:16:36.560 --> 0:16:38.880 wrote down for this game six actually not six and 0:16:38.880 --> 0:16:42.800 a half. It's Seattle minus three. Vegas does not believe 0:16:42.840 --> 0:16:46.760 in Seattle. Vegas flatly thinks Seattle is not a good team. 0:16:47.200 --> 0:16:52.680 Fair enough, but we know Carolina is not a good team, right. Seattle, 0:16:52.760 --> 0:16:57.120 on the other hand, they just they just played the Rams, 0:16:57.160 --> 0:17:00.960 they did not play well, and they a way to win. 0:17:03.040 --> 0:17:07.240 This to me really is more about the Panthers and 0:17:07.359 --> 0:17:11.200 how much respect should we be giving the Panthers right now, 0:17:11.480 --> 0:17:15.200 And my answer is very little to none. I think 0:17:15.240 --> 0:17:18.760 Seattle's defense, which was awful early in the year, then 0:17:18.880 --> 0:17:21.840 played well for a stretch and now is regressed a bit, 0:17:22.280 --> 0:17:26.480 can have a bounce back spot against the wretched Carolina offense. 0:17:26.880 --> 0:17:31.640 Seattle needs this victory. Seattle also has I'm sure Pete 0:17:31.720 --> 0:17:35.399 Carroll has been preaching to them with the Jimmy g 0:17:35.600 --> 0:17:39.040 injury all of a sudden, their ability to win that division. 0:17:39.119 --> 0:17:41.119 I don't think they're going to win that division, but 0:17:41.160 --> 0:17:43.720 their ability to win that division is right in front 0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:46.760 of them, and also preaching to them, this is a 0:17:46.960 --> 0:17:51.920 must win spot for Seattle because of that. Giants Washington tie. 0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:57.040 Both of those teams theoretically could make the playoffs. Giants Washington, Seattle. 0:17:57.440 --> 0:17:59.520 Two of them are making the playoffs. One of them isn't. 0:18:00.080 --> 0:18:04.760 Seattle has the record edge right now, on the well, 0:18:05.000 --> 0:18:08.000 not really. They have the record edge on Washington. They 0:18:08.040 --> 0:18:11.080 are I guess a half game behind the Giants Giants 0:18:11.160 --> 0:18:13.840 seventy four and one, Seattle seven to five, Washington seventy 0:18:13.880 --> 0:18:17.800 five and one. But what Seattle knows is this after 0:18:17.840 --> 0:18:23.480 this week Niners, Chiefs that following me by the way Jets, 0:18:23.920 --> 0:18:26.000 and then the end the season with the Rams, who 0:18:26.080 --> 0:18:28.399 the Rams stink, but they'd struggled with him. I almost 0:18:28.400 --> 0:18:30.680 lost to him last week. This is a must win 0:18:30.760 --> 0:18:35.240 spot for Seattle, an absolute must win game for Seattle. 0:18:35.600 --> 0:18:38.480 I like Seattle win by at least four points Seattle 0:18:38.560 --> 0:18:45.280 minus three and a half. Next this game that I 0:18:45.440 --> 0:18:49.359 understand why the line is where it is, but it's wrong. 0:18:50.200 --> 0:18:56.720 San Francisco laying only three and a half against Tampa. 0:18:56.880 --> 0:19:02.919 There is no scenario that I can see where Tampa 0:19:03.440 --> 0:19:09.800 can move the football on San Francisco. So I love 0:19:09.880 --> 0:19:14.760 San Francisco even with Brock Purdy, because I think they 0:19:14.800 --> 0:19:17.679 could cover the three and a half by getting to 0:19:17.880 --> 0:19:21.840 seventeen points. And I think San Francisco, I think maybe 0:19:21.840 --> 0:19:24.000 they could cover the three and a half by getting 0:19:24.040 --> 0:19:30.959 to fourteen points. You're not gonna is Tampa can't run 0:19:31.119 --> 0:19:34.560 on anyone, and you're not gonna be able to throw 0:19:35.000 --> 0:19:38.720 on this Niners pass rush. Brady is gonna be in 0:19:38.760 --> 0:19:42.919 self preservation mode the entire game. Now, I understand the 0:19:43.000 --> 0:19:47.439 idea of you're talking about Brock Purty against this Tampa defense. No, 0:19:47.520 --> 0:19:51.760 I'm not talking about Christian McCaffrey, Deebo, Samuel Brandon Ayuk, 0:19:52.000 --> 0:19:56.680 and George Kittle against this Tampa defense. They're going to 0:19:56.760 --> 0:20:01.560 be San Francisco is gonna be running the football consistently, 0:20:01.920 --> 0:20:04.879 They're going to be getting off the field defensively and 0:20:05.040 --> 0:20:08.520 three and outs repeatedly. This to me if we did 0:20:08.560 --> 0:20:11.359 it on this show. Under let me see what the 0:20:11.359 --> 0:20:14.040 total for the game is, but the under would be 0:20:14.160 --> 0:20:17.000 the play in this game in addition to the side. 0:20:17.440 --> 0:20:22.479 The total in this game, my guess is it's forty 0:20:22.600 --> 0:20:25.080 one and a half. Let me see where it's at. 0:20:25.200 --> 0:20:30.320 How close? Oh my goodness, gracious, the total is thirty seven. 0:20:30.960 --> 0:20:34.360 What a tiny under. That's the third smallest under we've 0:20:34.400 --> 0:20:37.040 had in the league all year. Yeah, so maybe the 0:20:37.160 --> 0:20:39.680 under is not as strong of a play as I 0:20:39.760 --> 0:20:43.679 quite thought if it's at thirty seven. But I just 0:20:43.680 --> 0:20:46.159 don't see how Tampa moves the football and here's the 0:20:46.200 --> 0:20:51.160 other thing for Tampa. Because they stole a victory last 0:20:51.160 --> 0:20:54.560 week against the Saints, Tampa didn't have to have this game. 0:20:55.640 --> 0:20:58.000 Tampa doesn't have to have this game. They don't even 0:20:58.080 --> 0:21:00.560 have to have the next game against the Bengals. They 0:21:00.600 --> 0:21:04.280 then get Cardinals, Panthers, Falcons to end the year, and 0:21:04.320 --> 0:21:09.639 the NFC South is imploding around them. I just don't 0:21:09.720 --> 0:21:12.440 I thought this line should be San Francisco minus six. 0:21:12.840 --> 0:21:15.920 Even with brock perty it's San Francisco minus three and 0:21:15.960 --> 0:21:17.840 a half. All lay the three and a half. I 0:21:17.880 --> 0:21:21.960 do not think Tampa is a near equivalent team to 0:21:22.000 --> 0:21:26.600 San Francisco. And by the way, let's and I know 0:21:26.640 --> 0:21:28.720 they're not saying they're a near equivalent team because the 0:21:28.800 --> 0:21:33.600 game is the well, no, that's right, the game is 0:21:33.680 --> 0:21:37.680 in San Francisco. Let's not forget the fact. So they're saying, 0:21:38.119 --> 0:21:39.920 because you don't get a full three points for home 0:21:39.960 --> 0:21:42.520 field anymore, but you get at least two and a half. 0:21:42.760 --> 0:21:45.679 They're saying it's a one point game on a neutral field. No, 0:21:45.720 --> 0:21:49.560 it's not. You add to it that Tampa demanse, I 0:21:49.600 --> 0:21:52.200 know you don't love this, but it's a thing that 0:21:52.359 --> 0:21:55.840 long flight you gotta go cross country from Tampa all 0:21:55.840 --> 0:21:56.639 the way to San francs. 0:21:56.680 --> 0:21:59.320 I believe it from when it comes to Seattle to Germany. 0:21:59.480 --> 0:22:03.760 But when it comes from Tampa to where San Francisco, 0:22:03.880 --> 0:22:04.960 San Francisco, it's a. 0:22:04.880 --> 0:22:07.800 Long flight, long flight, Tom Brady. 0:22:07.560 --> 0:22:08.720 I've got a stat for you. 0:22:08.840 --> 0:22:11.160 Yeah, tell all right, So, first of all, Shanahan sucks 0:22:11.240 --> 0:22:14.359 is a favorite, and he's nine and twenty nine straight 0:22:14.440 --> 0:22:17.440 up without Jimmy Garoppolo as his quarterback. Seems like it 0:22:17.480 --> 0:22:18.440 might be a little bit of a track. 0:22:18.600 --> 0:22:22.560 That nine and twenty nine is wildly misleading. Here's why 0:22:22.640 --> 0:22:27.720 it's wildly misleading. Oh sweet, So CJ. Bethor Nick Mullins 0:22:27.720 --> 0:22:30.760 and Brian Hoyer. Okay, other than the couple of Trey 0:22:30.840 --> 0:22:33.119 Lance games with the quarterbacks, for the entirety of that 0:22:33.240 --> 0:22:38.400 nine and twenty nine, those are not NFL caliber quarterbacks. 0:22:38.440 --> 0:22:43.399 They've started no games essentially cumulatively since leaving San Francisco. 0:22:43.600 --> 0:22:47.080 Now you might say rock Perty's not NFO, But what 0:22:47.119 --> 0:22:48.080 are you laughing about? 0:22:48.440 --> 0:22:50.479 Uh yeah, I was gonna say something like that. 0:22:51.040 --> 0:22:54.600 Okay, we don't know that. We'll see. He looked actually 0:22:54.720 --> 0:22:56.680 quite good in the game this weekend. 0:22:56.920 --> 0:22:57.800 But we'll see. 0:22:58.320 --> 0:23:01.480 But the other part of that is Jimmy G got 0:23:01.560 --> 0:23:06.920 hurt at the That record incorporates the Niners before Nick 0:23:07.000 --> 0:23:09.720 Bosa even got there. They have a similar record with 0:23:09.840 --> 0:23:11.800 and without Jimmy G that they have with and without 0:23:11.920 --> 0:23:15.080 Nick Bosa. Nick Bosa's thirty six and sixteen, there are 0:23:15.240 --> 0:23:18.399 Kyle changers thirty six and sixteen when Nick Bosa plays. 0:23:18.720 --> 0:23:24.560 This Niners team is not the same caliber, either because 0:23:24.600 --> 0:23:27.840 of injury or because players hadn't arrived as the previous 0:23:27.960 --> 0:23:32.199 Niner teams that were devastated by injury plus didn't have 0:23:32.280 --> 0:23:35.680 Jimmy Garoppolo. And I'm not worried about that nine and 0:23:35.760 --> 0:23:40.640 twenty nine Tampa that offense. Now, I still believe Tampa 0:23:40.720 --> 0:23:43.040 can be a scary playoff team, but we're not in 0:23:43.080 --> 0:23:46.119 the playoffs yet. San Francisco should be favored by more 0:23:46.160 --> 0:23:47.760 than three and a half. We're laying the three and 0:23:47.800 --> 0:23:54.920 a half of San Francisco. And lastly, this line shocked 0:23:54.960 --> 0:23:58.679 me so much that when I saw it, I wanted 0:23:58.720 --> 0:24:01.600 to make sure Justin Herbert hadn't been injured and I 0:24:01.640 --> 0:24:08.560 didn't know it. The Chargers are getting three points against Miami. 0:24:10.840 --> 0:24:16.800 The Chargers are gonna win this game outright. That another 0:24:16.920 --> 0:24:21.480 by the way, long flight Miami all the way. Now, 0:24:21.720 --> 0:24:24.760 let me tell you something, East coast to West coast 0:24:25.160 --> 0:24:28.280 not as tough as West coast to east coast because 0:24:28.720 --> 0:24:31.600 the West coast to East coast usually involves a one 0:24:31.680 --> 0:24:34.960 pm kickoff for a team that their body clucks ten am. 0:24:35.359 --> 0:24:39.560 That's not the situation here, however, this is a must 0:24:39.680 --> 0:24:44.680 win game for the Chargers. Miami is stuck, you know, 0:24:44.800 --> 0:24:48.960 after being hot, got exposed a bit this past weekend. 0:24:49.440 --> 0:24:53.400 And there are certain things that play off, play out 0:24:53.440 --> 0:24:57.320 in storylines, and there have been far too many members 0:24:57.359 --> 0:25:00.640 of the media that have been puffing their chest out 0:25:00.640 --> 0:25:05.400 with the oh, I told you to a greater than Herbert, 0:25:05.880 --> 0:25:09.640 not a bad take when it's a horrible take. And 0:25:09.680 --> 0:25:13.640 this is a game where justin Herbert plays a great 0:25:13.760 --> 0:25:19.480 football game looks like a franchise quarterback. Tua struggles once again, 0:25:19.880 --> 0:25:22.480 still dealing with injuries on the offensive line, granted not 0:25:22.560 --> 0:25:25.960 as bad as the injuries last week. Miami. Some of 0:25:26.000 --> 0:25:28.399 the bloom is off the rows, if you will. After 0:25:28.400 --> 0:25:32.840 this weekend's game his national television Sunday Night Football, I 0:25:32.960 --> 0:25:39.320 thought it would be Chargers minus one it's Miami minus three. 0:25:39.800 --> 0:25:41.919 Give me the Chargers getting the three points. 0:25:41.960 --> 0:25:45.760