WEBVTT - Daybreak Weekend: Fed Decision, Scotland Trip, China PMI 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:07.720 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:10.119 --> 0:00:12.520 This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look at 0:00:12.560 --> 0:00:15.000 the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak 0:00:15.040 --> 0:00:17.600 anchors all around the world, and straight ahead on the program, 0:00:17.680 --> 0:00:20.800 well look ahead to this week's monetary policy decision from 0:00:20.800 --> 0:00:24.680 the Fed. Also earnings for more of text Magnificent seven. 0:00:24.960 --> 0:00:26.479 I'm Tom Busby in New York. 0:00:26.640 --> 0:00:29.200 I'm callin Hepget in London, where we're asking if President 0:00:29.320 --> 0:00:32.879 Charump's Scottish golf trip can yield any political wins. 0:00:33.000 --> 0:00:35.839 I'm got Prisner looking at the Chinese economy ahead of 0:00:35.920 --> 0:00:38.080 fresh PMI reports in the coming week. 0:00:38.400 --> 0:00:42.440 That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 0:00:42.479 --> 0:00:46.160 eleven three zero, New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC, 0:00:46.680 --> 0:00:50.920 Bloomberg ninety two to nine, Boston, DAB Digital Radio, London, 0:00:51.360 --> 0:00:54.560 Sirius XM one twenty one, and around the world on 0:00:54.600 --> 0:00:57.760 Bloomberg Radio, dot Com and the Bloomberg Business app. 0:01:02.520 --> 0:01:03.000 Good day to you. 0:01:03.120 --> 0:01:05.400 I'm Tom Busby, and we begin today's program with this 0:01:05.440 --> 0:01:09.680 week's Federal Reserve policy meeting. The Federal issue its latest 0:01:09.680 --> 0:01:12.600 decision on interest rates on Wednesday, with a press conference 0:01:12.640 --> 0:01:16.520 expected from FED chair Jay Powell to follow what will 0:01:16.560 --> 0:01:19.880 the Fed decide and what's behind the central banks thinking? 0:01:19.920 --> 0:01:22.959 And for more. We're joined by Edward Harrison, senior editor 0:01:22.959 --> 0:01:27.400 at Bloomberg, author of Bloomberg's Everything Risk newsletter. Well, Edward, 0:01:27.480 --> 0:01:31.200 a critical decision from the Fed. What are you expecting 0:01:31.200 --> 0:01:32.559 to see happen this week? 0:01:33.000 --> 0:01:36.040 Hey, Tom? Yes, it is a critical decision because of 0:01:36.080 --> 0:01:39.800 the political pressure that we've seen applied to the Federal Reserve. 0:01:40.640 --> 0:01:44.680 The market widely expects interest rates to stay the same, 0:01:44.800 --> 0:01:49.880 in particular because we haven't implemented the final round of 0:01:49.920 --> 0:01:53.280 tariffs yet, we don't know how the economy's going to 0:01:53.320 --> 0:01:56.240 react to that. If you look at the pricing from 0:01:56.520 --> 0:02:00.440 the market, it's expecting not just this meeting to be 0:02:00.480 --> 0:02:04.960 the same. But there's only a slight chance, maybe a 0:02:05.040 --> 0:02:08.240 sixty percent chance that we get a cut in September. 0:02:08.360 --> 0:02:11.640 It's first in October when the next rate cut will come. 0:02:11.840 --> 0:02:14.920 Wow, that's well, that's a change. But Chairman Palth has 0:02:14.960 --> 0:02:17.320 said time and again he has said it's all about 0:02:17.320 --> 0:02:19.639 the data and that the Central Bank has to see 0:02:19.639 --> 0:02:22.760 the impact of the Trump tariffs on inflation. So it 0:02:22.800 --> 0:02:24.600 really is too soon to make a move because we 0:02:24.760 --> 0:02:27.800 just don't know. There's so many moving parts with these tariffs. Correct. 0:02:28.760 --> 0:02:30.919 Yeah, and you know, the interesting bit is is when 0:02:31.000 --> 0:02:35.480 the Fed actually moved to lower interest rates in twenty 0:02:35.600 --> 0:02:39.880 twenty four, the market's reaction was that this took all 0:02:39.960 --> 0:02:43.000 of the risk of a recession off the table, so 0:02:43.120 --> 0:02:47.440 much so that interest rates actually went up. So they 0:02:47.680 --> 0:02:51.600 lowered the short term interest rates, but they yields on 0:02:51.800 --> 0:02:56.480 longer term bonds, the ones that actually matter to people 0:02:56.480 --> 0:02:58.680 when they're getting a mortgage and so forth, those are 0:02:58.680 --> 0:03:01.600 the ones that went up. And so it was because 0:03:02.000 --> 0:03:06.240 the recession risk receded that you actually had a situation 0:03:06.320 --> 0:03:09.320 where the Fed was acting one way and long term 0:03:09.400 --> 0:03:12.080 yields went the actual opposite direction. 0:03:13.000 --> 0:03:15.120 Well, I think you know on Wall Street we have 0:03:15.160 --> 0:03:17.600 seen the major averages add or near all time highs 0:03:17.600 --> 0:03:20.720 the last few weeks. Inflation still above the Fed's target, 0:03:20.800 --> 0:03:23.960 but it has eased about two point seven percent, the 0:03:24.120 --> 0:03:28.680 labor market, resilient, jobless rate, four percent initial jobs. Everything 0:03:28.760 --> 0:03:33.200 is working. The Fed's plans have been working. So the 0:03:33.360 --> 0:03:35.840 argument could be, well, why not lower interest rates, But 0:03:35.840 --> 0:03:38.560 there's a very good reason why they wouldn't correct just 0:03:38.600 --> 0:03:41.600 for that reason you were talking about with long term yields. 0:03:41.440 --> 0:03:45.520 Right exactly. They just they don't know if, for instance, 0:03:45.640 --> 0:03:49.320 they were to lower interest rates whether or not, suddenly 0:03:49.720 --> 0:03:52.600 we would get inflation coming back in, not just because 0:03:53.120 --> 0:03:58.160 the tariffs created more inflation, but actually because the economy 0:03:58.200 --> 0:04:01.440 was running hot enough to create inflation on its own. 0:04:01.480 --> 0:04:03.800 And then suddenly they'd be in a situation where they 0:04:03.840 --> 0:04:07.360 made an error and that error would be taken on 0:04:07.480 --> 0:04:13.200 by markets to increase interest rates, increase yields across the curve, 0:04:13.520 --> 0:04:17.279 expecting the Fed to eventually have to undo that error. 0:04:17.600 --> 0:04:21.720 And this is the dilemma that they faced. So they've decided, look, 0:04:21.760 --> 0:04:23.520 you know, we're in a good enough position at this 0:04:23.560 --> 0:04:28.600 point in time that we can actually wait to do this. 0:04:28.960 --> 0:04:31.200 You know what's interesting if you look at the last 0:04:31.240 --> 0:04:35.400 FED decision, they released a summary of economic projections and 0:04:35.520 --> 0:04:38.400 sort of a by and modal distribution, there are actually 0:04:38.680 --> 0:04:43.000 seven of the Fed governors and presidents who think that 0:04:43.040 --> 0:04:46.960 they shouldn't lower interest rates at all this year, whereas 0:04:47.360 --> 0:04:50.440 nine think that they should lower them two times this year. 0:04:50.440 --> 0:04:53.839 And there are four others that are in there, but 0:04:54.080 --> 0:04:57.800 you know the total number that the reason that we 0:04:57.880 --> 0:05:01.400 have an expectation for two interest rates. It's being lowered 0:05:01.640 --> 0:05:04.400 is because of those I think it's eight FED members 0:05:04.440 --> 0:05:07.279 who believe that interest rate should be lowered by two, 0:05:07.320 --> 0:05:10.240 but they are a decent number who think, you know, 0:05:10.279 --> 0:05:12.240 there shouldn't be any interest rate cuts this year. 0:05:12.680 --> 0:05:15.440 And there's been a lot of pressure, obviously from President 0:05:15.480 --> 0:05:17.920 Trump on Jerome Palell, a lot of criticism, a lot 0:05:17.960 --> 0:05:20.880 of pressure about what the FED is going to do. 0:05:21.120 --> 0:05:24.240 And it goes into what you just said, He's not 0:05:24.279 --> 0:05:26.280 the only one designing. I mean, there are twelve voting 0:05:26.320 --> 0:05:29.400 members of the FOMC. You have all these other governors 0:05:29.440 --> 0:05:31.960 and vice presidents and presidents of banks. I mean, it 0:05:32.040 --> 0:05:33.839 is not a unilateral decision, is it. 0:05:34.120 --> 0:05:37.520 No, it's not. And the interesting thing about that bimodal 0:05:37.560 --> 0:05:42.200 distribution is that obviously we don't know which of the 0:05:42.440 --> 0:05:47.560 nineteen dots in this summary are of voting members, but 0:05:47.800 --> 0:05:52.760 there are enough members that if the data turned towards 0:05:52.760 --> 0:05:57.240 the more inflationary side, you could get the FOMC outside 0:05:57.279 --> 0:06:00.920 of Jerome Pale saying no, we don't even want two 0:06:01.040 --> 0:06:03.839 interest rate cuts this year. We want one and perhaps 0:06:03.920 --> 0:06:08.200 even zero. Because all it takes is us to get 0:06:08.320 --> 0:06:12.120 three more dots up into that number, you know, to 0:06:12.160 --> 0:06:15.000 go from seven to ten, and then suddenly we don't 0:06:15.040 --> 0:06:18.039 have any interest rate cuts at all in twenty twenty five. 0:06:18.240 --> 0:06:20.240 Well, the FETCH two day policy meeting kicks off this 0:06:20.360 --> 0:06:24.080 Tuesday at Decision Wednesday, expected at two pm Wall Street time. Then, 0:06:24.120 --> 0:06:26.479 of course we're going to hear from fedchair Jerome Powell. 0:06:26.800 --> 0:06:29.840 Our thanks to Edward Harrison, senior editor at Bloomberg, author 0:06:29.880 --> 0:06:34.880 of Bloomberg's Everything Risk newsletter. We move next to corporate earning. 0:06:34.960 --> 0:06:37.920 Some of the Magnificent seven's biggest names reporting this week 0:06:38.040 --> 0:06:41.960 meta platforms, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, and for more on 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:46.000 what to expect. We're joined by Mandeep Singh, Bloomberg Intelligence, 0:06:46.200 --> 0:06:49.440 senior tech industry analysts. Man Deep, thank you so much 0:06:49.440 --> 0:06:52.359 for being here. I want to start though, by looking backward, 0:06:52.480 --> 0:06:54.919 because last week we got the latest results from Tesla 0:06:55.279 --> 0:06:59.719 and Alphabet, very different results. Tesla miss earnings, sales fell 0:07:00.680 --> 0:07:04.359 difficult times ahead what Alphabet. There was a real upside surprise, 0:07:04.440 --> 0:07:04.920 wasn't there. 0:07:05.240 --> 0:07:08.560 Yeah, And also going into earnings, I think the narrative 0:07:08.839 --> 0:07:13.560 was that Google Search has been under a lot of 0:07:13.920 --> 0:07:17.720 competitive threat from the likes of Chat GPT and just 0:07:18.320 --> 0:07:21.960 what's going on in the LLM space and the numbers 0:07:22.080 --> 0:07:25.880 proved otherwise, I mean the fact that Google grow search 0:07:26.160 --> 0:07:29.800 double digits at a run rate of two hundred ten 0:07:29.880 --> 0:07:33.200 billion dollars. That just goes to show you know, how 0:07:33.280 --> 0:07:37.840 much momentum they have in terms of just their integrating 0:07:37.960 --> 0:07:42.960 Gemini with their search page. So AI overviews has actually 0:07:43.520 --> 0:07:47.640 helped you know, the number of queries. And then the monetization, 0:07:47.800 --> 0:07:52.280 I mean ad monetization for Google is really, you know, 0:07:52.360 --> 0:07:55.000 something that no one else has been able to even 0:07:55.080 --> 0:07:57.760 come close to. And look, we're talking about Meta coming 0:07:57.840 --> 0:08:00.360 up as well. So to me, what what will be 0:08:00.360 --> 0:08:05.360 interesting is whether Meta shows you know, high teens or 0:08:05.440 --> 0:08:09.080 twenty percent plus growth, because that's the sort of expectation 0:08:09.280 --> 0:08:11.800 Google has set up with its print. You know, YouTube 0:08:11.800 --> 0:08:16.240 did really well. In fact, YouTube plus cloud is almost 0:08:16.280 --> 0:08:19.760 one hundred and fifteen billion dollars rundrate growing at over 0:08:19.840 --> 0:08:23.760 twenty percent, and so a lot of positives in that 0:08:23.840 --> 0:08:26.120 Google print. The one thing I would call out is 0:08:26.120 --> 0:08:29.600 a capex pense. So Google ded raise their capex by 0:08:29.680 --> 0:08:32.760 ten billion for this year, and they said twenty twenty 0:08:32.800 --> 0:08:36.040 six would be another growth year for capex and that 0:08:37.160 --> 0:08:40.839 some investors could say would be a Dragon free cash flow, 0:08:41.080 --> 0:08:43.480 But I would compare that to a Meta which has 0:08:43.559 --> 0:08:48.160 already guided to a higher CAPEX and they are not 0:08:48.480 --> 0:08:52.040 monetizing at the same level as Google is with their 0:08:52.080 --> 0:08:54.720 cloud business. So that is where it'd be interesting to 0:08:54.760 --> 0:08:59.199 see how the market reacts to Meta talking up capex 0:08:59.200 --> 0:09:01.040 for second half twenty twenty six. 0:09:01.640 --> 0:09:04.640 Another horse in this race Microsoft, Yeah, which you know 0:09:04.880 --> 0:09:08.720 with their open AI commitments and still expected to see 0:09:08.760 --> 0:09:12.640 Azure a big, big revenue gainer. How about you know 0:09:12.679 --> 0:09:15.400 the rest of the company. Where's Microsoft stand? Because we're 0:09:15.400 --> 0:09:16.439 out Wednesday as well. 0:09:16.520 --> 0:09:20.360 I think one thing was clear from google'sprint is Microsoft 0:09:20.440 --> 0:09:23.600 Azure business is going to put up another strong quarter. 0:09:23.679 --> 0:09:27.319 We are talking another mid thirty five, like mid thirty 0:09:27.320 --> 0:09:31.920 percent growth for an Azure, which was a real surprise 0:09:32.040 --> 0:09:35.120 last quarter. But now the numbers have gone up for Azure, 0:09:35.200 --> 0:09:40.320 so you will see another strong quarter for Azure. But overall, look, 0:09:40.400 --> 0:09:44.640 Microsoft has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of this 0:09:44.880 --> 0:09:49.520 AI infrastructure spend and the cloud business that it has benefited. 0:09:49.640 --> 0:09:52.840 And in Google's case, you know, it's a fifty billion 0:09:52.880 --> 0:09:56.720 dollars run rate business cloud growing almost you know, thirty 0:09:56.760 --> 0:10:00.720 percent plus now, so that could double to hundred billion 0:10:00.760 --> 0:10:04.040 in two years. In Microsoft's case, it's the same kind 0:10:04.040 --> 0:10:08.080 of momentum, and that's why cloud is the real beneficiary 0:10:08.440 --> 0:10:11.400 of this AI infrastructure spent. On one hand, we call 0:10:11.480 --> 0:10:14.679 out how Nvidia is benefited on the chip side. On 0:10:14.720 --> 0:10:17.560 the software side, it's the cloud companies. And that's where 0:10:17.600 --> 0:10:20.960 I would put Microsoft and Google. Amazon, which is another 0:10:21.679 --> 0:10:25.320 one reporting next week and has expoture to cloud, I 0:10:25.360 --> 0:10:29.400 think their growth rates are still way down compared to 0:10:30.280 --> 0:10:33.280 Google and Microsoft Cloud, which is growing you know, thirty 0:10:33.280 --> 0:10:37.080 percent plus. Amazon's growth may still be around that's seventeen 0:10:37.160 --> 0:10:38.440 to twenty percent. 0:10:38.720 --> 0:10:41.439 And still strong, still very strong. 0:10:41.120 --> 0:10:44.120 For a business of over one hundred billion dollar run rate. 0:10:44.240 --> 0:10:49.440 It's very good growth when you compare them share in cloud. 0:10:49.800 --> 0:10:52.960 I do think, you know, Microsoft and Google seem to 0:10:53.000 --> 0:10:57.120 be taking share because of this AI workloud shift, and 0:10:57.480 --> 0:11:01.280 that's where Amazon has to kind step up in terms 0:11:01.360 --> 0:11:04.560 of how they will increase the growth rate for their 0:11:04.559 --> 0:11:05.479 cloud business. 0:11:05.720 --> 0:11:09.280 Now the outlier in this horse race for AI, Apple 0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:12.920 also next week, has been way behind, has no sign 0:11:12.960 --> 0:11:16.040 of even catching up except for partnerships it's making. But 0:11:17.040 --> 0:11:19.200 what do you expect there. I mean, the iPhone sixteen 0:11:19.240 --> 0:11:22.520 is smash hit. We have services have been very strong, 0:11:22.840 --> 0:11:25.800 but are they still behind. They're still going to make 0:11:25.800 --> 0:11:27.520 a ton of money, there's no doubt. 0:11:27.760 --> 0:11:32.040 I think with Apple now announcing they're getting into insurance business. 0:11:32.160 --> 0:11:36.560 The twenty dollars per month for three devices, that's just 0:11:36.720 --> 0:11:41.280 aimed at improving the services run rate. To me, everyone 0:11:41.360 --> 0:11:44.760 looks up to Apple for what they will do on 0:11:44.840 --> 0:11:48.520 the AI side, and that is a big question mark 0:11:48.559 --> 0:11:52.640 whether they have a compelling AI strategy. I think they 0:11:52.640 --> 0:11:55.800 are going to go to the partnership route, but right 0:11:55.840 --> 0:11:58.600 now we have no signs to suggest there will be 0:11:58.640 --> 0:12:03.000 a big upgrade or refresh cycle for their devices because 0:12:03.120 --> 0:12:06.840 AI right now is still being used on the cloud. 0:12:07.360 --> 0:12:11.920 People are not really using AI assistant that's installed on 0:12:11.960 --> 0:12:15.600 the phone. Because these lms are called large anglid models 0:12:15.600 --> 0:12:18.880 for a reason. They require a lot of compute and 0:12:19.000 --> 0:12:22.600 memory that you can't have on device, and so that's 0:12:22.679 --> 0:12:27.440 where Apple has to strike partnerships. They have to enhance 0:12:27.480 --> 0:12:31.240 their hardware to run AI on device, and we are 0:12:31.280 --> 0:12:34.479 talking about at least at twelve to twenty four month timeframes, 0:12:34.559 --> 0:12:38.520 so you're not gonna see anything that investors will find exciting, 0:12:38.559 --> 0:12:40.000 at least in this print. 0:12:40.000 --> 0:12:42.520 Well, a lot to look forward to. Meta and Microsoft 0:12:42.600 --> 0:12:45.600 earnings out this Wednesday. Amazon and Apple on Thursday are 0:12:45.600 --> 0:12:49.840 thanks to Mandeep Sing, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Tech industry analyst. 0:12:50.280 --> 0:12:52.400 And coming up on Bloomberg day Break weekend, we'll look 0:12:52.400 --> 0:12:55.400 at whether President Trump's Scottish golf trip can yield any 0:12:55.520 --> 0:13:09.880 political wins. I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg. This 0:13:10.000 --> 0:13:12.240 is Bloomberg day Break weekend, our global look ahead at 0:13:12.280 --> 0:13:14.920 the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm 0:13:14.960 --> 0:13:17.920 Tom Busby in New York. Up later in our program 0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:20.439 and look at some key economic data coming out of 0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:24.520 the world's second largest economy. But first, fresh from a 0:13:24.520 --> 0:13:27.120 flurry of trade deal announcements, President Trump is in the 0:13:27.200 --> 0:13:30.480 UK in Scotland. His trip will be a mixture of 0:13:30.480 --> 0:13:33.160 business and pleasure. But in the coming days the President 0:13:33.200 --> 0:13:35.600 has set to hold meetings with UK Prime Minister Kure 0:13:35.679 --> 0:13:40.080 Starmer and John Swinney, First Minister of Scotland. Can the 0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:43.920 duo sweet talk Trumpet to further trade concessions For more, 0:13:44.080 --> 0:13:46.040 Let's go to London and bring in Bloomberg day Break 0:13:46.040 --> 0:13:48.280 Europe anchor Caroline Hepgar. 0:13:48.480 --> 0:13:52.440 Tom President Donald Trump Count's Scottish ancestry as part of 0:13:52.480 --> 0:13:55.800 his heritage. His mother, Mary Anne MacLeod, was one of 0:13:55.840 --> 0:13:58.600 thousands of Scotts who left for the US and Canada 0:13:58.800 --> 0:14:01.240 at the beginning of the last century in a bid 0:14:01.280 --> 0:14:05.600 to escape economic hardship at home. But despite the family ties, 0:14:05.720 --> 0:14:09.560 the US President's relationship with the country is a complicated one. 0:14:09.760 --> 0:14:12.640 During his last visit to Scotland in twenty eighteen, the 0:14:12.679 --> 0:14:16.719 President was booed during an afternoon golf game by demonstrators 0:14:16.760 --> 0:14:20.160 at his resort in Turnbury, and the entire trip was 0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:24.120 dogged by protests of thousands of people in Glasgow, Edinburgh 0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:28.400 and Aberdeen. This time round, controversial White House policies could 0:14:28.440 --> 0:14:31.720 make for a similar reception as Trump visits his two 0:14:31.760 --> 0:14:35.360 Scottish golf properties. His plan for international trade is also 0:14:35.440 --> 0:14:39.560 something the White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt expanded on recently. 0:14:40.320 --> 0:14:42.240 Look, I can tell you the trade team and the 0:14:42.240 --> 0:14:45.360 President himself continue to be very engaged with countries around 0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:48.280 the world when it comes to our trade agreements. But 0:14:48.320 --> 0:14:51.520 the August first deadline is just really the start date 0:14:51.920 --> 0:14:54.480 for when the United States of America will begin collecting 0:14:54.520 --> 0:14:56.680 this revenue from all of the countries around the world 0:14:56.800 --> 0:14:58.640 who the President has sent these letters to. 0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:00.440 You could see some more years. 0:15:00.240 --> 0:15:02.720 Before August first, John, you could have some more trade 0:15:02.720 --> 0:15:06.080 announcements as well. I can tell you the President, Secretary 0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:09.440 of Treasury, Secretary of Commerce, Ambassador Greer all continue to 0:15:09.480 --> 0:15:11.440 be in constant communication with our trading partners. 0:15:12.040 --> 0:15:15.640 The White House is Caroline Levitt speaking to reporters there. Well, 0:15:15.680 --> 0:15:16.120 do you know what I mean? 0:15:16.120 --> 0:15:16.280 Now? 0:15:16.280 --> 0:15:19.680 It's Bloomberg's Edinburgh based reporter James Laden and our White 0:15:19.680 --> 0:15:23.000 House correspondent Skyla Woodhouse. Welcome to both of you. Thank 0:15:23.000 --> 0:15:25.920 you for speaking to me. James, Maybe can I start 0:15:25.960 --> 0:15:30.119 with you. Trump has long been i'll say, infatuated with Scotland. 0:15:30.320 --> 0:15:33.160 The Scot's perhaps a bit less so with him. Just 0:15:33.240 --> 0:15:36.240 talk us through the perceptions of President Donald Trump on 0:15:36.280 --> 0:15:36.640 the ground. 0:15:36.720 --> 0:15:40.920 Now, Yeah, in your intro you did mention how there 0:15:40.960 --> 0:15:44.400 were some demos against him when you was here last 0:15:44.720 --> 0:15:48.800 I think those demos were more personality based, whereas I 0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:53.400 think the demos that are being planned are both personality 0:15:53.560 --> 0:15:58.360 and politics based. So there's a subtle difference there. One 0:15:58.360 --> 0:16:00.880 thing I think that you need to sort of remind 0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:04.280 yourselves about the Scottish psyche if you like, is that 0:16:06.320 --> 0:16:09.920 someone who shall we say, is kind of fairy, brash 0:16:09.960 --> 0:16:12.960 and a showman. That doesn't necessarily go down very well 0:16:13.160 --> 0:16:18.400 here in Scotland. They tend to admire people who are 0:16:18.440 --> 0:16:22.160 a bit more understated. And also Scotland does have a 0:16:22.200 --> 0:16:27.080 reputation of cheering for the underdog over the years, and 0:16:27.120 --> 0:16:31.520 certainly having a slightly larger big brother, shall we say, 0:16:31.960 --> 0:16:35.040 to the South that's been dominating proceedings for several centuries. 0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:39.320 That also probably explains why Scott's they prefer the underdog 0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:40.800 rather than the top dog. 0:16:41.360 --> 0:16:45.520 H Okay Skyler. And President Trump's also coming to the 0:16:45.640 --> 0:16:48.400 UK for full proper state visit in only a few 0:16:48.440 --> 0:16:51.360 weeks time. Why do you think he's making this trip 0:16:51.440 --> 0:16:52.560 to Scotland now? 0:16:53.080 --> 0:16:55.000 I mean the White House is saying, you know, this 0:16:55.080 --> 0:16:58.320 is a moment for the President and Prime Minister Starmer 0:16:58.480 --> 0:17:02.280 to refine the trade deal from just a few months ago. 0:17:02.720 --> 0:17:05.119 You know, we'll hopefully we'll get an update on what's 0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:07.360 maybe some more of the fine print details of that 0:17:07.400 --> 0:17:10.560 trade agreement are. And there's obviously a lot happening in 0:17:10.600 --> 0:17:13.600 the world right now there's you know, Ukraine and Russia 0:17:13.640 --> 0:17:15.960 that has been you know, front and center for President Trump, 0:17:16.040 --> 0:17:18.040 and you know, so we're you know, looking to see 0:17:18.080 --> 0:17:21.199 if we could see any sort of maybe new agreement 0:17:21.920 --> 0:17:24.080 between the two countries there or just sort of what 0:17:24.119 --> 0:17:26.960 the strategy you know, might look like. So there's a 0:17:26.960 --> 0:17:29.480 lot of talk around national security right now. 0:17:29.720 --> 0:17:29.919 You know. 0:17:30.000 --> 0:17:32.840 So it's kind of a mix of you know, the 0:17:32.880 --> 0:17:37.359 presidents who we all know loves to golf and you 0:17:37.400 --> 0:17:40.359 know frequently he'll be in Florida, you know, golfing and 0:17:40.400 --> 0:17:42.840 things like that. But you know, we're expecting to see 0:17:43.280 --> 0:17:47.000 probably a more refined trade deal than what we saw earlier. 0:17:47.080 --> 0:17:49.480 Yeah, absolutely, entire it's hugely important, I mean, both the 0:17:49.560 --> 0:17:51.800 kised arma of the UK as a whole and Scotland 0:17:51.840 --> 0:17:55.200 in particular as well. Is there going to be any 0:17:55.280 --> 0:17:58.840 expectation actually of any progress in terms of trade discussions? 0:17:58.840 --> 0:17:59.359 Do you think? 0:18:00.119 --> 0:18:03.080 I think one thing that's particularly interesting with the trade 0:18:03.080 --> 0:18:06.960 agreements that we've just been seeing across the board, Obviously, 0:18:07.000 --> 0:18:10.840 this is something that President Trump is very passionate about 0:18:10.880 --> 0:18:15.720 and is definitely dominating his second term and as president. 0:18:16.480 --> 0:18:19.040 You know, so I think it'll be interesting to watch 0:18:19.440 --> 0:18:24.480 what the fine print looks like. We've we're approaching that 0:18:24.600 --> 0:18:28.080 August first deadline with a plethora of countries and we're 0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:32.359 starting to see you know, the rates coming in you know, 0:18:32.400 --> 0:18:35.000 a different level. So I think it'll be interesting to 0:18:35.040 --> 0:18:40.520 see what maybe has changed from the you know, the 0:18:40.560 --> 0:18:43.320 deal that was presented a few months ago to now 0:18:43.480 --> 0:18:45.919 and to compare and contrast what has changed or what 0:18:45.960 --> 0:18:46.760 has not changed. 0:18:47.400 --> 0:18:49.760 James, what do you think the Scottish First Minister John 0:18:49.800 --> 0:18:52.840 Swinney is likely to cover maybe try to press with 0:18:52.920 --> 0:18:54.120 the US President. 0:18:54.880 --> 0:18:56.760 Well, I guess so the biggest thing here is whiskey. 0:18:57.200 --> 0:19:02.439 Personally not a fan, but I mean it's it's the 0:19:02.440 --> 0:19:07.320 biggest export that we have up here, and any potential 0:19:08.160 --> 0:19:11.000 reducing the tariffs on whiskey I think would go a 0:19:11.000 --> 0:19:13.560 long way up here. But at the end of the day, 0:19:13.600 --> 0:19:16.000 the personal sign the document is going to be starmer, 0:19:16.240 --> 0:19:20.960 So there's a slight set of dichotomy there. Otherwise, I 0:19:21.000 --> 0:19:24.600 mean Swinny he is involved a little bit in the 0:19:25.800 --> 0:19:29.760 long running staga about whether Turnbury, one of Trump's golf sites, 0:19:29.800 --> 0:19:33.000 will ever host the Open again, so there will be 0:19:33.040 --> 0:19:36.119 some chat on that, I dare say, But at the 0:19:36.200 --> 0:19:38.960 end of the day, the decision comes down to the 0:19:39.320 --> 0:19:43.400 rural ancient golf club in Saint Andrew's RNA. But there 0:19:43.440 --> 0:19:46.359 will be pressure from Swinny and also from Starma to 0:19:46.440 --> 0:19:48.199 try to make this happen. But then to make it 0:19:48.200 --> 0:19:51.840 happen you kind of need to have much better communications. 0:19:51.840 --> 0:19:54.520 You must have much better roads and rail systems, and 0:19:54.680 --> 0:19:56.560 to get that you're going to have to get the 0:19:56.600 --> 0:19:58.919 tax player to stump up for it very properly, and 0:19:59.000 --> 0:20:00.119 that will be a big. 0:20:00.160 --> 0:20:05.240 Problem in terms of travel. It's obviously quite a privileged 0:20:05.280 --> 0:20:08.000 position for the UK to be in and Scotland in 0:20:08.040 --> 0:20:10.440 some ways to be hosting, you know, a visit, even 0:20:10.480 --> 0:20:13.080 an informal visit from the US president, given how much 0:20:13.160 --> 0:20:15.560 is riding on this and President Trump's actually got some 0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:18.640 cousins who still live on the kind of ancestral island 0:20:18.680 --> 0:20:22.120 where his mother came from. How important do you think 0:20:22.240 --> 0:20:25.160 the relationship is at the moment, Skyler, between the US 0:20:25.200 --> 0:20:28.200 and the UK as we see these really quite fraught 0:20:28.320 --> 0:20:31.600 negotiations with many countries rushing to try to make the 0:20:31.640 --> 0:20:33.439 August first deadline. 0:20:33.760 --> 0:20:38.240 I think one thing the traupid administration, you know, they 0:20:38.240 --> 0:20:40.239 do a lot of things differently, But ultimately I do 0:20:40.240 --> 0:20:43.040 think there is an understanding that the relationship with the 0:20:43.160 --> 0:20:45.840 UK is a very important one that obviously has a 0:20:45.920 --> 0:20:50.840 very long standing history, you know, so I do think 0:20:50.920 --> 0:20:54.360 the administration is looking to sort of continue to keep 0:20:54.400 --> 0:20:57.880 that relationship intact and whatever way that might be. I mean, 0:20:57.880 --> 0:21:00.959 but it's still very interesting that of the trade deals, 0:21:01.040 --> 0:21:04.520 the UK was one of the first to see a 0:21:04.600 --> 0:21:07.760 deal and an agreement and there was the Oval event 0:21:07.840 --> 0:21:10.560 where Starmar I believed, phoned in, you know, so you know, 0:21:10.640 --> 0:21:14.479 they're definitely trying to show a united front between the 0:21:14.480 --> 0:21:19.440 two countries, which on the global stage could be very 0:21:19.480 --> 0:21:21.679 telling that you know, we have the US and the 0:21:21.800 --> 0:21:24.960 UK sort of you know, aligned, even if there are 0:21:25.200 --> 0:21:27.679 differences you know, on some things. But now do you 0:21:27.680 --> 0:21:30.639 think administration is you know looking to sort of you know, 0:21:30.640 --> 0:21:33.560 make sure that that relationship continues to remain stable. 0:21:33.920 --> 0:21:37.120 Yeah, in terms of what you expect then also from 0:21:37.160 --> 0:21:39.280 the State visit in September and how important that is. 0:21:39.320 --> 0:21:42.520 We've had out the for example, the car and truck 0:21:42.600 --> 0:21:45.960 manufacturing figures for the UK. That's a very important market 0:21:46.200 --> 0:21:49.800 for Britain, the US sending vehicles there. It's actually just 0:21:49.840 --> 0:21:52.080 below the relationship with the EU, but it's still very 0:21:52.119 --> 0:21:54.920 important and actually we've seen a big kind of cratering 0:21:55.000 --> 0:21:57.800 in terms of the numbers of vehicles that are being 0:21:57.920 --> 0:22:01.200 exported and in fact just rolling off the lines here 0:22:01.240 --> 0:22:04.920 in the UK. How important is this kind of other 0:22:05.080 --> 0:22:09.240 sector issues between the US and the UK And do 0:22:09.280 --> 0:22:12.240 you think anything might change, let's say, in the September 0:22:12.280 --> 0:22:15.080 State visit. How is that being seen in the US? 0:22:15.359 --> 0:22:17.679 Yeah, I know, it's a good point to mention the 0:22:17.800 --> 0:22:21.520 sectors because that's something we're watching very closely in the 0:22:21.560 --> 0:22:24.600 mix of all of the trade deals. But when you 0:22:24.640 --> 0:22:28.040 boil it down to the sectors, whether it's autos pharmaceuticals, 0:22:28.280 --> 0:22:30.600 that's a space you know where we're you know, trying 0:22:30.640 --> 0:22:32.640 to see if there's any movement there because we still 0:22:32.680 --> 0:22:36.119 haven't really seen a lot of details in the pharma space, 0:22:36.160 --> 0:22:39.640 but it has been something the President talks about pretty frequently. 0:22:40.040 --> 0:22:42.200 So we're definitely watching that space. But I think in 0:22:42.280 --> 0:22:45.360 the US in terms of perception, you know, one thing, 0:22:45.520 --> 0:22:47.040