1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 1: Welcome to zero. I am Akshatrati. This week the global 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:20,319 Speaker 1: battle for EV supremacy. There is a lot happening in 3 00:00:20,360 --> 00:00:23,560 Speaker 1: the EV world at the moment. In the US, teslas 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:26,599 Speaker 1: are being hawked on the White House lawn while President 5 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 1: Donald Trump mults weather to cut EV subsidies. In Europe, 6 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:35,600 Speaker 1: leading auto manufacturers continue to lobby against stricter CO two targets, 7 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:40,200 Speaker 1: even as EV sales continue to grow at pace. Meanwhile, 8 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 1: in China, electric vehicle technology continues to improve by leaps 9 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:48,760 Speaker 1: and bounds. Electric car giant Bid just launched two models 10 00:00:48,800 --> 00:00:51,879 Speaker 1: that can add four hundred kilometers of range about two 11 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty miles in a mere five minutes, as 12 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: quick as taking a stop at a gas station. Keeping 13 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 1: up with all the latest twists in terms of the 14 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 1: EV industry is a full time job, and luckily we 15 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:08,240 Speaker 1: have a person whose full time job it is to 16 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:10,840 Speaker 1: help us unpick the latest EV trends. I sat down 17 00:01:10,840 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 1: with Craig Trudell, who is Bloomberg's Global Automotive editor and 18 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:17,399 Speaker 1: sits a few desks down from me in our offices 19 00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:21,559 Speaker 1: here in London. Before that, Craig ran the automotives team 20 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:24,480 Speaker 1: in Europe, the US, and Asia, so he has a 21 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:27,679 Speaker 1: unique global insight of the EV market as it stands today. 22 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:31,080 Speaker 1: Craig also writes the Hyperdrive newsletter for Bloomberg, one of 23 00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 1: my favorite places for all the latest developments in the 24 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:37,080 Speaker 1: world of EV's. We discussed the state of the global 25 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:41,080 Speaker 1: EV industry, why Japan seems so hesitant to embrace the transition, 26 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:44,800 Speaker 1: and whether Elon Musk is now derailing the adoption of 27 00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 1: electric cars. Craig, Welcome to the show. 28 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:55,640 Speaker 2: Thank you for having me. 29 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:59,080 Speaker 1: So I think a lot about electric cars, but I 30 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:01,240 Speaker 1: know for a fact I don't think about them as 31 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 1: much as you do. And so I want to understand 32 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 1: this moment because there's just so much happening in pretty 33 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 1: much every auto market in the world. It's not just 34 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:17,480 Speaker 1: about Elon Muskin Tesla. So we'll come to that big 35 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 1: dark elephant. But before that, let's start in America, and 36 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 1: let's start with the big automakers, you know, Ford, General Motors. 37 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:30,200 Speaker 1: These companies had committed to go down the path of electrification. 38 00:02:30,760 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 1: They were getting all this money from the Inflation Reduction 39 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 1: Act under Biden to subsidize making battery plans, to try 40 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 1: and get more domestic manufacturing of all sorts in the 41 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:46,679 Speaker 1: supply chain happening, and now they have in the Trump 42 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:51,400 Speaker 1: administration push back against all forms of ebs. Many of 43 00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:54,840 Speaker 1: them seem completely dumb, like having charging stations that are 44 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:58,839 Speaker 1: perfectly fine and working being shut down. But others which 45 00:02:58,880 --> 00:03:01,480 Speaker 1: you know, can make some rational argument for which is 46 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:04,520 Speaker 1: cutting the subsidies for the sale of electric cars or 47 00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 1: cutting the subsidies for battery making because that's a Biden 48 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 1: thing and Trump doesn't want to do it. So with 49 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 1: all this mess happening, how is Ford doing? 50 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:17,720 Speaker 2: I mean to speak to your point that these companies 51 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 2: really took this seriously the last few years. Ford went 52 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:25,360 Speaker 2: so far as to completely switch up how it was 53 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:28,799 Speaker 2: organized as a company to where it started actually its 54 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:32,440 Speaker 2: own EV business within the parent right. And so they 55 00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 2: had you know, Model E separate from Ford Blue for 56 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:40,000 Speaker 2: Blue being you know, the gas guzzling F series pickups, 57 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 2: this sort of you know, conventional business and Model E 58 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 2: being you know, Mustang Machi, the F one fifty Lightning. 59 00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:50,640 Speaker 2: They lost more than five billion dollars last year just 60 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 2: in the EV business. And that's a heck of a 61 00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:55,680 Speaker 2: lot of money, period, But it's a heck of a 62 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:58,480 Speaker 2: lot of money for you know, just the size of 63 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 2: that business for them, because much as it is growing, 64 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:05,800 Speaker 2: it is still quite small. GM, I think has put 65 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:09,680 Speaker 2: quite a bit more effort, and investment into electric vehicles 66 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 2: is further along. I think, you know, Ford kind of 67 00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:16,880 Speaker 2: freaked out a little bit by you know, how Tesla 68 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:19,680 Speaker 2: was bringing a pickup to market. Trucks are so important 69 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 2: for the Detroit companies. I think they've freaked out a 70 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:24,560 Speaker 2: little bit because of Tesla. They freaked out a little 71 00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:28,600 Speaker 2: bit because of Chevy and GM. They rushed to pick 72 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:33,080 Speaker 2: up to market. That was sort of Frankenstein pick up 73 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 2: a little bit with you know, some holdover of the 74 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:38,600 Speaker 2: way they've been making the f one fifty and some 75 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:42,279 Speaker 2: new stuff. I think they will come back to the 76 00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:46,479 Speaker 2: market with something that is much more concerted and you know, 77 00:04:46,520 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 2: more attractive to consumers. But for the time being, they're 78 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:51,160 Speaker 2: really pumping the brakes. 79 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 1: In America, there's the third big one, which used to 80 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:57,200 Speaker 1: be Chrysler, but it's been since taken over by a 81 00:04:57,279 --> 00:04:59,600 Speaker 1: European company, and now you don't know whether it's American 82 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:04,160 Speaker 1: area being but Stilentis has gone through the same transition. 83 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 1: What kind of price are company is starting to pay 84 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:09,599 Speaker 1: if they get the transition wrong. 85 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:13,080 Speaker 2: I think this is a huge story to watch in 86 00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:17,920 Speaker 2: twenty twenty five, Stalantis's attempt to sort of clean up 87 00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 2: after the mess of the fact that they were so 88 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:25,039 Speaker 2: far behind everybody else, and in this transition, all of 89 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:28,080 Speaker 2: Detroit is very much relying on big pickups and SUVs. 90 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:31,960 Speaker 2: But I think Fiat Chrysler, you know, the sort of 91 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:36,280 Speaker 2: predecessor to Stalantis, was particularly so when you think about 92 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:41,040 Speaker 2: RAM trucks and gpsuvs, you almost don't have anything left 93 00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 2: of Chrysler and some of these other brands right Chrysler 94 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 2: literally the only thing they manufacture in that market anymore 95 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:52,320 Speaker 2: is a minivan. They made this big attempt under the 96 00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 2: CEO who just left late last year to try and 97 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:59,080 Speaker 2: play some ketchup and electrify a lineup that was in 98 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:04,599 Speaker 2: dire and dire need of some electrification. It didn't go 99 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:07,839 Speaker 2: well at all. There was resistance internally, I think with 100 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:13,920 Speaker 2: their dealers, with their suppliers that they have long worked 101 00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 2: with that have not been in this in this realm. 102 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:20,920 Speaker 2: So this is a company that just a year prior 103 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:25,600 Speaker 2: was doing fabulously, you know, roughly twelve billion euros of 104 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 2: free cash flow generated to last year a six billion 105 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 2: euro burn so in the course of a year it 106 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:38,640 Speaker 2: was something on the order of eighteen nineteen billion euros swing. 107 00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:42,080 Speaker 2: I think it speaks to just how much this is 108 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 2: an industry where you know, you make some bad bets 109 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:48,440 Speaker 2: or they go against you, and you pay a price 110 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:50,600 Speaker 2: that you just don't see in other industries. 111 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:54,800 Speaker 1: And then the doc elephant in the room Tesla. Now 112 00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:57,360 Speaker 1: let's keep the politics of Musk apart for a bit 113 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:00,640 Speaker 1: and talk about just the company and it's performance. 114 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:05,000 Speaker 3: Tonight, more turmoil for Tesla CEO elon Musk live streaming 115 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:08,360 Speaker 3: and all hands meeting Thursday, trying to reassure his employees 116 00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 3: as Tesla stock tumbles, and then a Tesla take down 117 00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:12,800 Speaker 3: protest movement against the company. 118 00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:14,800 Speaker 2: I understand if you don't want buy our product, but 119 00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 2: you don't have to burn it down, that's a bet unreasonable. 120 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 1: Tesla's shares from its beacon December are drastically down and 121 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:26,600 Speaker 1: they don't look like a car company that is growing. 122 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 1: You know, as stock prices can be vibes, but they 123 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:33,160 Speaker 1: are also based on fundamentals, like what is Tesla's deal 124 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:34,960 Speaker 1: right now? As a car company? 125 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:38,400 Speaker 2: It sort of changes by the month, by the week, 126 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 2: sometimes by the day. I do think that, you know, 127 00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:43,960 Speaker 2: the one thing that's been really consistent with this company 128 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:47,000 Speaker 2: really when you go back just the last few years, 129 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:52,400 Speaker 2: it started to become pretty apparent that they're very narrow lineup. 130 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 2: That was a real strength for them during the pandemic 131 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:57,760 Speaker 2: because they only had so many mouths to feed, if 132 00:07:57,800 --> 00:07:59,760 Speaker 2: you will, you know, your supply chain is a little 133 00:07:59,760 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 2: bit easier to manage when you only have so many vehicles. 134 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 2: That was a real strength for them. And they had 135 00:08:05,400 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 2: the Model Y at a time when you know, sort 136 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:12,320 Speaker 2: of ev hype was at its peak, and to credit them, 137 00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:16,560 Speaker 2: they were a huge driver of that hype. And you 138 00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:20,960 Speaker 2: got into the twenty twenty two timeframe when Musk goes 139 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 2: out and decides to acquire Twitter, where you know, this 140 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:29,080 Speaker 2: company that had been promising more models wasn't actually delivering 141 00:08:29,120 --> 00:08:32,320 Speaker 2: those and the growth really started to slow down. And 142 00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:35,440 Speaker 2: so I think we're seeing them sort of feel the 143 00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:38,679 Speaker 2: ill effects of having maybe counted on this you know, 144 00:08:38,800 --> 00:08:41,640 Speaker 2: tight lineup strategy for longer than they really should have. 145 00:08:41,760 --> 00:08:44,600 Speaker 1: Right, and so this is sort of cutting down the 146 00:08:44,640 --> 00:08:48,920 Speaker 1: possibility of a cheaper car than the Model three then 147 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:54,200 Speaker 1: sort of pivoting towards robotaxis. And now if you bring 148 00:08:54,200 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 1: into politics, because you have to these days, you were 149 00:08:57,920 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 1: seeing people actually put on advertisements about the Swasti cars 150 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:06,760 Speaker 1: and Elon Musk is sitting in them doing the salute, 151 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:10,520 Speaker 1: and it's showing up at least in correlation in sales 152 00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:13,679 Speaker 1: drops across the world. So here in the UK, electric 153 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:17,960 Speaker 1: car sales are going up rapidly, but Tesla sales have 154 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:21,240 Speaker 1: gone down, and that shows up in multiple countries. Is 155 00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:24,800 Speaker 1: the politics actually having an impact on these Tesla sales? 156 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:27,600 Speaker 2: I mentioned the model why, and that was so important 157 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:31,600 Speaker 2: because it actually became the best selling vehicle in the world, 158 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:34,760 Speaker 2: which I think nobody saw that coming. I certainly didn't, 159 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 2: and I think you have to sort of take your 160 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:40,040 Speaker 2: hat off tip to Tesla for having done that. That 161 00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:43,160 Speaker 2: being said, they sort of let that vehicle age a 162 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:46,199 Speaker 2: bit and they're just now coming out with a redesigned 163 00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:49,680 Speaker 2: version of that. Anytime you change over a vehicle to 164 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:52,480 Speaker 2: a new design, you also have to change over production lines. 165 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:56,319 Speaker 2: That's going to cost you some output, and Tesla has 166 00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 2: said they're going to change over all of the plants 167 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:02,480 Speaker 2: that make that this quarter and so that's absolutely going 168 00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:04,720 Speaker 2: to have an effect and is something that we're going 169 00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:06,840 Speaker 2: to have to sort of parse as the year goes on. 170 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:11,000 Speaker 2: How much of their early year struggles are sort of 171 00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:14,760 Speaker 2: a result of that very understandable changeover and how much 172 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 2: is it the fact that Musk, to your point, is 173 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:21,160 Speaker 2: alienating a lot of people. And it's not just people 174 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 2: on the left. I think when you look at how 175 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:29,120 Speaker 2: he's behaved online toward countries that are big EV buyers, 176 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 2: Germans in general just aren't particularly keen for Americans to 177 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 2: American billionaires to insert themselves in politics. Here in the UK, 178 00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 2: you know, the Labor Party have been big proponents of 179 00:10:42,000 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 2: electric vehicles and that zero. He on the other hand, 180 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:47,480 Speaker 2: is sort of throwing his lot in with Nigel Farage 181 00:10:47,559 --> 00:10:51,480 Speaker 2: and reform. And so it's not just the fact that 182 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:54,080 Speaker 2: he has so emphatically gotten behind Trump. I'm sure that 183 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 2: doesn't help, because he too is a very divisive figure 184 00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:59,160 Speaker 2: for a lot of people. But it's more than that. 185 00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:03,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, And talking of Europe, now it's not going through 186 00:11:03,280 --> 00:11:07,240 Speaker 1: the same level of EV backlash on policy at least, 187 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:12,240 Speaker 1: but European automakers have not done themselves any favor by 188 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:16,360 Speaker 1: lobbying very hard to try and have as much leeway 189 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:19,839 Speaker 1: in getting to goals that they must reach because these are, 190 00:11:19,920 --> 00:11:23,440 Speaker 1: at least in Europe, legally binding climate targets that require 191 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:26,560 Speaker 1: them to reach a certain level of electric car sale. 192 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:32,640 Speaker 1: Are there any European automakers that are showing signs of 193 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:36,720 Speaker 1: actually making a transition from a legacy player to the 194 00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:39,880 Speaker 1: twenty first century eve car maker that you ought to 195 00:11:39,880 --> 00:11:40,320 Speaker 1: be now? 196 00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:42,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, this has been so interesting, and it's good that 197 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:45,360 Speaker 2: we started off the conversation by talking about the state 198 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:48,880 Speaker 2: of things in the US and touchdown the Inflation Reduction Act, 199 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:51,360 Speaker 2: because I think a few years ago everybody in Europe 200 00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:54,960 Speaker 2: was freaking out right because Biden passed this climate bill 201 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:58,400 Speaker 2: that was just a landmark piece of legislation. Europe was 202 00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 2: really worried about falling behind. And so we've seen a 203 00:12:03,040 --> 00:12:06,120 Speaker 2: lot more take up of electric vehicles in Europe, but 204 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 2: it's really just been in a handful of countries for 205 00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:11,320 Speaker 2: the most part. To the extent that there's been higher 206 00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:14,480 Speaker 2: take up, it's been in some smaller markets like Norway. 207 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:17,560 Speaker 2: You know of some of the Nordic countries where people 208 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:20,200 Speaker 2: just don't buy a ton of cars generally. But I 209 00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:25,600 Speaker 2: think we've seen really interesting differences in strategy where a BMW, 210 00:12:25,640 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 2: I think a lot of people were doubting whether it 211 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:31,560 Speaker 2: was going to make sense for them to sort of have, 212 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:33,920 Speaker 2: you know, one foot in and one foot in the 213 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:37,280 Speaker 2: combustion age. They've actually made that work, you know, pretty 214 00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:40,960 Speaker 2: nicely the last year where their electric vehicle sales really 215 00:12:41,040 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 2: sort of gained momentum despite some of them being built 216 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:47,439 Speaker 2: off of combustion engine platforms, which a lot of this 217 00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:51,439 Speaker 2: sort of ev purists thought that that can't work, and 218 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:55,319 Speaker 2: so they've really outperformed, I would say, on the luxury 219 00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:58,520 Speaker 2: end of the spectrum. For the rest of the industry, 220 00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:02,360 Speaker 2: I think you've really had trouble, particularly among this sort 221 00:13:02,360 --> 00:13:06,120 Speaker 2: of mass manufacturers, and I think Volkswagen is the one 222 00:13:06,160 --> 00:13:08,640 Speaker 2: you have to sort of talk about first and foremost, 223 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 2: where they put a lot of investment in this, rolled 224 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 2: out a lot of models, and while they are maintaining 225 00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:20,360 Speaker 2: some some momentum or at least in a decent position 226 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:22,840 Speaker 2: relative to some other players, I think that's more a 227 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:25,040 Speaker 2: function of the fact that they're just so big as 228 00:13:25,040 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 2: a group than it is that they've really done a 229 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 2: lot of things right. 230 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:31,000 Speaker 1: And then the other one that is perhaps in the 231 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:36,400 Speaker 1: laggard territory and maybe among American and European and Japanese 232 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 1: was the Japanese are the biggest lag yards here and 233 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:42,640 Speaker 1: it's not helped that they've had some serious business trouble 234 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 1: in recent years. Now, you lived in Tokyo for a 235 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:48,679 Speaker 1: while and you follow the Japanese car market really closely, 236 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:53,120 Speaker 1: Are they seeing any of this stuff happening in the 237 00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:56,560 Speaker 1: West affecting how they think about the transition? Now? 238 00:13:56,720 --> 00:14:00,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, there are real differences among those companies where I 239 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:05,120 Speaker 2: think Nissan under Carlos going roughly a decade ago, really 240 00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:08,280 Speaker 2: saw a lot of promise in electric vehicles, and you 241 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:11,960 Speaker 2: saw them bring out the Leaf, which was really sort 242 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:13,880 Speaker 2: of ahead of its time in terms of, you know, 243 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:18,240 Speaker 2: an affordable vehicle that was fully electric, and yet I 244 00:14:18,280 --> 00:14:20,400 Speaker 2: think it left, you know, a fair amount to be 245 00:14:20,440 --> 00:14:23,120 Speaker 2: desired in terms of you know, design and sort of 246 00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 2: shape and utility for folks, and especially in markets like 247 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 2: the US where we like our great big vehicles that 248 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:33,440 Speaker 2: didn't you know, hit the mark. And so I think 249 00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 2: Nissan really sort of pulled back after missing the mark 250 00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:40,560 Speaker 2: with the Leaf, and then I think for the rest 251 00:14:40,680 --> 00:14:45,800 Speaker 2: of the Japanese you know, Toyota has really doubted, you know, 252 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 2: consistently that consumers are ready, especially where it sells an 253 00:14:50,160 --> 00:14:52,640 Speaker 2: awful lot of cars in the US and in Japan, 254 00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:57,160 Speaker 2: and much as there's been a sort of consistent questions 255 00:14:57,280 --> 00:15:00,920 Speaker 2: raised about whether that's the right strategy for them, I 256 00:15:00,960 --> 00:15:03,920 Speaker 2: think we have to sort of acknowledge our looking pretty 257 00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 2: smart in terms of their ability to comply with the 258 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:11,920 Speaker 2: rules set by regulators to lower emissions but not necessarily 259 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:15,480 Speaker 2: get to zero because people are buying hybrids like they're 260 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 2: going out of style, and it's really difficult actually for 261 00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:22,040 Speaker 2: the company to keep hybrids and stock in the US. 262 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:24,800 Speaker 2: Here in Europe, you know, it's getting pretty close to 263 00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:28,400 Speaker 2: hybrid only for them, and in Japan I can say too, 264 00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:31,400 Speaker 2: you know, it's just sort of what you expect to 265 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:35,080 Speaker 2: see on the roads is priuses, but also the rest 266 00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:38,479 Speaker 2: of the lineup is you know, predominantly hybridized. 267 00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:39,320 Speaker 3: At this point. 268 00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 1: After the break the panda in the room, has China 269 00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:51,760 Speaker 1: beaten all others at EV technology and cracked the developing 270 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:54,880 Speaker 1: world's EV market. And by the way, if you've been 271 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 1: enjoying this episode, please take a moment to rate and 272 00:15:57,080 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 1: review the show on Apple podcasts and Spotify helps other 273 00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:13,000 Speaker 1: listeners find the show. So I want to talk about 274 00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:16,680 Speaker 1: China's global view of the ev pucket because it's starting 275 00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:20,880 Speaker 1: to expand really quite quickly outside of China. But before 276 00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:24,680 Speaker 1: we go there, given what BVID just announced, I feel 277 00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:27,480 Speaker 1: like we need to spend a few minutes. So BID 278 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 1: is launching two new models that they say can go 279 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:36,440 Speaker 1: from seven percent to fifty percent charge roughly four hundred 280 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:41,760 Speaker 1: kilometers of range in a mere five minutes. Now you 281 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:44,160 Speaker 1: need a few things there. It's not just these two cars, 282 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 1: but you also need a one megawat charger, which is 283 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 1: like ten times the amount of power that a Tesla 284 00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 1: supercharger has, for example. But if you have that, now 285 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 1: you can get a car charged in the same amount 286 00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:59,360 Speaker 1: of time that you would spend at a gas station. 287 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:05,119 Speaker 1: It feels like it's a deep Seek moment for EV batteries. 288 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:08,879 Speaker 2: I think that's right because I think with deep Seek, 289 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:13,040 Speaker 2: the sort of parallel here is that everybody thought that 290 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 2: everyone was going to have to spend a ton of 291 00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:18,359 Speaker 2: money and there was sort of no way around it. 292 00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:22,200 Speaker 2: And alone and behold some company in China that people 293 00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:24,480 Speaker 2: you know, for the most part, in the West hadn't 294 00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:27,120 Speaker 2: heard of, sort of came out of nowhere and sort 295 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:29,960 Speaker 2: of blew every everybody's mind with you know, you know what, 296 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:33,040 Speaker 2: there's a better way, a cheaper way, and I think 297 00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:35,840 Speaker 2: we've sort of seen by D they were sort of 298 00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:38,439 Speaker 2: deep seek before there was deep seek in the idea 299 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:42,000 Speaker 2: that you know, they were offering a much cheaper solution 300 00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:46,480 Speaker 2: for electric vehicles and weren't particularly well known until the 301 00:17:46,560 --> 00:17:49,800 Speaker 2: last few years. I think, even still after the remarkable 302 00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:52,160 Speaker 2: run they've been on, I think a lot of consumers 303 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:54,919 Speaker 2: would only sort of vaguely be aware of what this 304 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:57,080 Speaker 2: company is, and you know, would have a hard time 305 00:17:57,240 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 2: being able to tell you a specific model that by 306 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:03,359 Speaker 2: ID makes right. And yet they are absolutely setting the 307 00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:07,159 Speaker 2: car world on fire. And with this announcement, you know, 308 00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:10,600 Speaker 2: the sort of immediate question that it raises is, you know, 309 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:12,160 Speaker 2: is range anxiety dead? 310 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:17,080 Speaker 1: So I started writing about electric cars like in twenty seventeen, 311 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:21,040 Speaker 1: and that's when the thing that everybody thought about was batteries. 312 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:23,960 Speaker 1: Because if you could make the battery cheaper and have 313 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:27,920 Speaker 1: more energy density, does lots of range, then you're going 314 00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:32,280 Speaker 1: to make this device price parity and eventually you'll get 315 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 1: to this point which is making charging be as quick 316 00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:40,760 Speaker 1: as a gas station stop. But all the battery people 317 00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:45,080 Speaker 1: also said temper your expectations because batteries are complicated, the 318 00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:48,080 Speaker 1: chemistry is complicated, it will take a while. And so 319 00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:50,920 Speaker 1: I went on this wild goose chase about finding these 320 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:54,879 Speaker 1: new types of battery technologies like silicon anodes or solid 321 00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:57,679 Speaker 1: state batteries that would eventually get us to this point. 322 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 1: And lo and behold, Uid has come out with this 323 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:05,679 Speaker 1: technology with what would be classed as an old school 324 00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:08,480 Speaker 1: lithium ion battery as far as we know, and this 325 00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:10,520 Speaker 1: is where we have to rely on what the company 326 00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:15,200 Speaker 1: has told us. BID's battery is a lithium ion phosphate battery. 327 00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:17,600 Speaker 1: It's one of the cheapest lithium ion batteries you can make, 328 00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:20,040 Speaker 1: but it is very good because it can handle a 329 00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:22,000 Speaker 1: lot of power, which is, it can take a lot 330 00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:24,359 Speaker 1: of electricity in a very short amount of time, and 331 00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:28,359 Speaker 1: that's exactly what you need for a quick charge. And so, 332 00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 1: because the technology is not a fundamental chemical breakthrough, it 333 00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:37,880 Speaker 1: might be something that becomes accessible to other battery companies 334 00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:40,600 Speaker 1: in a few years time. So this could be a 335 00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:44,400 Speaker 1: technology that's available to everybody. The catch, of course, is 336 00:19:44,440 --> 00:19:47,439 Speaker 1: you need a one mega or charger and that you 337 00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:50,359 Speaker 1: can't build very many of I mean, UID is telling 338 00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:53,200 Speaker 1: us they'll build four thousand of these in China. China, 339 00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:56,600 Speaker 1: as we know, is a huge electric giant, not just 340 00:19:56,640 --> 00:19:59,919 Speaker 1: in making electric cars but also deploying all this electricity generation. 341 00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:02,600 Speaker 1: And so you could perhaps believe that there are one 342 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:06,680 Speaker 1: mega charges coming in China. Hard to see getting those 343 00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:10,159 Speaker 1: here in Europe in the US in near term. The 344 00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:13,320 Speaker 1: question that I'm left with is if this is real 345 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:15,679 Speaker 1: and we do see these commercial models being sold in 346 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:18,959 Speaker 1: April as they are supposed to, how does that change 347 00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:20,960 Speaker 1: the global ev landscape. 348 00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:24,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think assuming all of what BYD has told us, 349 00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:26,959 Speaker 2: we can take it to the bank, and you know 350 00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:29,040 Speaker 2: there isn't a sort of fine print, a sort of 351 00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:32,919 Speaker 2: catch to all this, it does actually put battery electric 352 00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:36,200 Speaker 2: vehicles on a much more you know, sort of competitive 353 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:39,000 Speaker 2: pedestal where you know, even in China, I think it's 354 00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 2: it's gone sort of underappreciated as we've seen this, you know, 355 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 2: more global slow down in the momentum for fully electric 356 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:49,440 Speaker 2: vehicles China. You know, the plug in hybrid part of 357 00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:52,920 Speaker 2: what they call new energy vehicles has really been what's 358 00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:55,439 Speaker 2: sort of driving you know, the growth for them in 359 00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:59,119 Speaker 2: the last call it year plus and if that is 360 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 2: you know, in no small part because of this very 361 00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:05,360 Speaker 2: issue of how long it takes to recharge, the concern 362 00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:07,200 Speaker 2: about whether or not you're going to run out of 363 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:10,600 Speaker 2: juice and need to you know, stop for thirty minutes, 364 00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:13,199 Speaker 2: an hour, an hour and a half, and you know, 365 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:16,760 Speaker 2: and sometimes you know, wait for for aligne for for chargers. 366 00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:19,720 Speaker 2: It's not, of course, just the idea of you know, 367 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:23,639 Speaker 2: the charge itself. You know, oftentimes you're you're competing with 368 00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:27,679 Speaker 2: other drivers who also need a charge. So if we 369 00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:31,320 Speaker 2: can so speed up this process to where it's only 370 00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 2: five minutes to give you, you know, plenty of range to 371 00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:35,960 Speaker 2: get you to where you need to go and continue 372 00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:39,440 Speaker 2: on in your journey, that eliminates a huge sort of 373 00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:43,919 Speaker 2: knock against battery electric vehicles that you know, maybe plug 374 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:47,000 Speaker 2: in hybrids, what's the sort of you know, real need 375 00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:50,920 Speaker 2: for that it's going to be sort of considered an 376 00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:54,639 Speaker 2: engine that you don't actually need. And so I think 377 00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:58,119 Speaker 2: that of course will have big ramifications as well for emissions, 378 00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:03,000 Speaker 2: because while plugging hybrids are much cleaner than full ice vehicles, 379 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,960 Speaker 2: they also are not quite where BEVs are in terms 380 00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:06,920 Speaker 2: of how clean they are. 381 00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:11,560 Speaker 1: Well, I saved China for the end because when I 382 00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:14,240 Speaker 1: look at electric car stories and I like to see 383 00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:17,480 Speaker 1: what's happening outside of the big markets, because the big 384 00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:20,959 Speaker 1: markets are something that are very well covered and for 385 00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:23,320 Speaker 1: a good reason. They're big markets. But then you add 386 00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:25,440 Speaker 1: those up, and then you add the rest of the world, 387 00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:28,439 Speaker 1: and the rest of the world is larger. And what 388 00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 1: China is doing now is it's become the largest exporter 389 00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:34,560 Speaker 1: of cars and they're going into this rest of the 390 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:37,639 Speaker 1: world market in a strong way. Just recently, there was 391 00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:42,120 Speaker 1: a headline from Bloomberg reporters looking at Nigeria. Now, Nigeria 392 00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:45,320 Speaker 1: had cut diesel subsidies. I was aware of that. Realize 393 00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:47,720 Speaker 1: a lot on diesel generators, so it was moving to solar. 394 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:50,399 Speaker 1: I was aware of that, but did not realize that 395 00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:54,760 Speaker 1: the downstream impact is actually so big that suddenly Chinese 396 00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:58,440 Speaker 1: electric cars are now cheaper than the diesel alternative, not 397 00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:01,920 Speaker 1: just parity cheaper, and there's this rapid rise of Chinese 398 00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,920 Speaker 1: electric car sales in Nigeria. Are we just going to see, 399 00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:09,320 Speaker 1: at least in the electric car space, China now leapfrog 400 00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:14,360 Speaker 1: all of these other Japanese, European and American automakers. 401 00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:17,280 Speaker 2: I think this is going to be the sort of 402 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:20,240 Speaker 2: you know, question of the next few years, because we've 403 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:23,800 Speaker 2: seen we've seen it answered. You know, can they dominate 404 00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:27,040 Speaker 2: their own market? We've seen an emphatic yes. I think, 405 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:31,520 Speaker 2: especially you know, with with BYD, and you know that 406 00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:36,600 Speaker 2: company has absolutely cleaned up in China and they're they're 407 00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:40,040 Speaker 2: really getting aggressive in some of the bigger markets that 408 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:42,920 Speaker 2: that do get the attention. I would encourage your listeners 409 00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 2: to read a Bloomberg Business Week cover story that our 410 00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:49,280 Speaker 2: colleagues Gabby Coppola and Danny Lee wrote. It was all 411 00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:52,760 Speaker 2: about how BYD was winning the global race to make 412 00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:56,360 Speaker 2: cheaper electric cars, and there was this sort of reference 413 00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:59,359 Speaker 2: in the opening of the story to this idea of 414 00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,120 Speaker 2: you know, when you think about like chicken bones that 415 00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:04,879 Speaker 2: you have little bits of meat left on them, that 416 00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:08,400 Speaker 2: is BYD's strategy. I thought that was so insightful that they, 417 00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:11,280 Speaker 2: you know, the lead of the story was all about 418 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 2: how they're they're making this big play in Malta of 419 00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:18,080 Speaker 2: all places, right, and this is in some ways a 420 00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:21,679 Speaker 2: function of the fact that these companies for all the 421 00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:25,479 Speaker 2: success they've had in making much better cars that are 422 00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:29,200 Speaker 2: really attractive and turn heads, they still don't have this 423 00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:32,480 Speaker 2: sort of brand recognition and brand value, and that's going 424 00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:34,399 Speaker 2: to take them some time to build up. It doesn't 425 00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:38,400 Speaker 2: happen overnight. It takes a lot of promotions and marketing, 426 00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:40,720 Speaker 2: and you're seeing them spend money in that regard to 427 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:43,800 Speaker 2: but I think they're clear eyed about the fact that 428 00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:47,240 Speaker 2: it will take some convincing of people to ditch say 429 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:50,600 Speaker 2: a Volkswagen that people have been buying that their whole 430 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:53,240 Speaker 2: lifetime and try out a brand that they've only heard 431 00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,040 Speaker 2: of just in the last few years. So they're really 432 00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:59,480 Speaker 2: making a play for the developing world. And to go 433 00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:03,760 Speaker 2: back to the conversation about the Japanese manufacturers, that has 434 00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:06,639 Speaker 2: been their turf. And so we've seen this real changing 435 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:11,280 Speaker 2: of the guard of China overtaking Japan in no small 436 00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:14,080 Speaker 2: part because of a lot of these markets that people overlook. 437 00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:16,400 Speaker 1: And one other reason is they are going to these 438 00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:19,399 Speaker 1: markets because Western countries are just putting up these tariff 439 00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:23,040 Speaker 1: barriers right huge amount of money that you need to 440 00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,200 Speaker 1: pay if you're buying a Chinese car in the US, 441 00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:29,159 Speaker 1: which almost impossible to buy one. You could still do 442 00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:31,399 Speaker 1: that in Europe, but then pay forty five percent tariff 443 00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:35,920 Speaker 1: on top. Typically, these startiff stories tell you that, look, 444 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:38,840 Speaker 1: Europeans want to save their automakers and Americans want to 445 00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:44,280 Speaker 1: save their automakers. But the reality is, no auto company 446 00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:48,600 Speaker 1: in the world in history has really become a big, 447 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:53,600 Speaker 1: giant auto company without the domestic government playing a key 448 00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:57,080 Speaker 1: role in making it a big company. So is it 449 00:25:57,119 --> 00:26:00,560 Speaker 1: really fair that this tariff game is being played by 450 00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:04,480 Speaker 1: saying China is so different and it's so heavily subsidizing 451 00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:07,400 Speaker 1: it's electric cars that they must be this tariff. 452 00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:10,600 Speaker 2: I think, honestly, this is a reflection of the rest 453 00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:13,119 Speaker 2: of the world sort of you know, seeing the writing 454 00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:15,440 Speaker 2: on the wall and realizing that they are in big, 455 00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:20,119 Speaker 2: big trouble. And to your point, this is an industry 456 00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:25,119 Speaker 2: that is hugely nationalistic, right, There is a reason why 457 00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:28,840 Speaker 2: French companies that you know are not necessarily all that 458 00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:32,520 Speaker 2: strong globally, and you know in pockets of Europe even 459 00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:35,960 Speaker 2: aren't strong, but they still dominate the French market. The 460 00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,800 Speaker 2: same goes for Italy, and you know it, the same 461 00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:42,439 Speaker 2: goes for Germany, India. In India, I think this is 462 00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:46,080 Speaker 2: a function of the fact that these companies are so big, 463 00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:49,080 Speaker 2: the products that they make are so high value, they 464 00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:52,880 Speaker 2: require so much labor. It absolutely is the case that 465 00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:56,159 Speaker 2: this is an industry where the governments look out for 466 00:26:56,200 --> 00:27:00,919 Speaker 2: the companies. And when you make a sort of bet 467 00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:04,879 Speaker 2: on a paradigm shift, which China did years ago now 468 00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:09,680 Speaker 2: and you know, steadily organize around that be on a 469 00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:13,119 Speaker 2: paradigm shift, and that comes to pass and you're able 470 00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:14,879 Speaker 2: to do what the rest of the world has not 471 00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,400 Speaker 2: figured out, and you sort of, you know, beat them 472 00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:20,920 Speaker 2: to the punch to a substantial degree. I think we 473 00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:23,520 Speaker 2: had a sort of oh shoot moment. I know this 474 00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:29,480 Speaker 2: is a family show, and the world is not being 475 00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:35,159 Speaker 2: particularly coy about talking about needing to give their industry 476 00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:39,440 Speaker 2: a lift and protect them from China. China was absolutely 477 00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:43,560 Speaker 2: at the center of how IRA was crafted. Joe Manchin 478 00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:47,399 Speaker 2: and Joe Biden. The reason they were sort of able 479 00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:51,840 Speaker 2: to make the IRA work was because Manchin said, if 480 00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:55,600 Speaker 2: these automakers want these subsidies, then build me a dang 481 00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:59,640 Speaker 2: domestic supply chain. And there is no way to do 482 00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:04,040 Speaker 2: that and compete with China without doing something policy wise 483 00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:06,920 Speaker 2: to account for the fact that China is so far 484 00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:09,320 Speaker 2: ahead on cost and scale. 485 00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:12,960 Speaker 1: Now we have seen a shift in the American stance 486 00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:16,440 Speaker 1: since the IRA. What we don't know is how far 487 00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:20,040 Speaker 1: this stance goes. Right, we are getting an anti EV 488 00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:25,080 Speaker 1: movement in America, but also these tariff games that are 489 00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:30,440 Speaker 1: being played by the Trump administration with allies or with enemies. 490 00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:34,200 Speaker 1: It doesn't really matter what in twenty twenty five should 491 00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:36,880 Speaker 1: you be looking out for. If you're interested in the 492 00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:40,920 Speaker 1: auto market, without knowing the specifics of all the weird 493 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:43,960 Speaker 1: things that are likely to happen, where are the stress 494 00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:47,160 Speaker 1: points that are worth knowing? 495 00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:50,520 Speaker 2: I think you know, the Trump administration has made an 496 00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:53,600 Speaker 2: awful lot of noise about doing away with the quote 497 00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:58,040 Speaker 2: unquote EV mandate. There isn't in fact an EV mandate, 498 00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:01,560 Speaker 2: a hard and fast one at least, but the threat 499 00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:06,760 Speaker 2: of subsidies going away, especially incentives for consumers, I think 500 00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:10,320 Speaker 2: is a huge story to watch because the way that 501 00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:12,640 Speaker 2: this has played out in terms of the amount of 502 00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:17,520 Speaker 2: investment by the industry, both by car makers, by battery manufacturers, 503 00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:23,160 Speaker 2: by miners, sort of you name it. There's been an 504 00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:27,200 Speaker 2: awful lot of investment, particularly in red districts. I think 505 00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:30,120 Speaker 2: it's going to be harder than maybe the headlines have 506 00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:35,680 Speaker 2: suggested for Washington to get comfortable with taking away subsidies 507 00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:40,000 Speaker 2: for the companies, so maybe those get protected. The question 508 00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:43,560 Speaker 2: will be are those investments still money good if at 509 00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:47,680 Speaker 2: the end of this chain the consumer isn't incentivized to 510 00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:52,800 Speaker 2: actually buy because what we need to see as an 511 00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:58,360 Speaker 2: industry is scale, and in order to have scale make 512 00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:00,680 Speaker 2: any sense, you need people to buy what you're making. 513 00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:04,440 Speaker 2: And I think there's a lot of doubts about being 514 00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:09,080 Speaker 2: able to achieve what was sort of, you know, desired 515 00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:13,120 Speaker 2: under the Biden administration, given the constraints that Trump has 516 00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:16,040 Speaker 2: sort of signaled he's going to put on this industry 517 00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:21,240 Speaker 2: and his complete disinterest with wanting to see evs continue 518 00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:23,000 Speaker 2: to maintain momentum. 519 00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:25,560 Speaker 1: Well, this was really fun and I wish you that 520 00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:28,440 Speaker 1: you get more sleep in twenty twenty five and are 521 00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:30,640 Speaker 1: not disturbed by too many elon tweets. 522 00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:32,160 Speaker 2: I'm not counting at it, but thank you. 523 00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:42,120 Speaker 1: Thank you for listening to zero. Sign up to the 524 00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:44,800 Speaker 1: Hyperdrive newsletter for all the latest in the EB world. 525 00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:48,120 Speaker 1: There's a link in the show notes. And now for 526 00:30:48,160 --> 00:31:00,400 Speaker 1: the Sound of the Week, that's the simulated ex sound 527 00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:05,080 Speaker 1: of the Dodge Charger electric muscle car because some people 528 00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:08,040 Speaker 1: just like to be loud. If you like this episode, 529 00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:09,800 Speaker 1: please take a moment to rate and review the show 530 00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:12,720 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Share this episode with a 531 00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:16,400 Speaker 1: friend or with someone who's thinking about buying a Chinese eb. 532 00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:19,920 Speaker 1: You can get in touch at zero pord at bloomberg 533 00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:23,600 Speaker 1: dot net. This episode was produced by Oscar Boyd. Bloomberg's 534 00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,160 Speaker 1: Head of podcast is Sage Bowman and head of Talk 535 00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:29,640 Speaker 1: is Brendan Nuno. Our theme music is composed by Wondering 536 00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:34,280 Speaker 1: Special thanks to Mike Lee Rau, Samersadi Moses Andim Blake 537 00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:38,360 Speaker 1: Maples and Shawan Wagner. I'm Makshatrati back soon.