1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Cockley and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,120 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:28,000 Speaker 2: President Trump there sitting next to Prime Minister Mark Carney 7 00:00:28,040 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 2: of Canada, flank by many of their top advisors in 8 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:33,040 Speaker 2: what Preston Trump called the new and improved Oval Office, 9 00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:36,199 Speaker 2: who took a moment to point out the new gilded 10 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:37,919 Speaker 2: frames surrounding the artwork that he's put up in there, 11 00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:40,239 Speaker 2: but characterize the conversation that he plans to have here 12 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: with the Prime Minister as a friendly one. He stressed 13 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:44,120 Speaker 2: over and over again that the two of them are 14 00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:46,080 Speaker 2: getting along very well, and had a lot of praise 15 00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:48,840 Speaker 2: for the President rather for the Prime Minister of Canada 16 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:50,920 Speaker 2: in terms of how he campaigned ahead of the Liberal 17 00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 2: leadership election and during the federal election last week as well. 18 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:58,639 Speaker 2: Touched on a number of major issues, handful of them 19 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:01,560 Speaker 2: in foreign policy. So there's agreement among these two leaders 20 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:04,000 Speaker 2: when it comes to Ukraine, for instance, spoke about the 21 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:06,959 Speaker 2: houthis in the Middle East, talked about China as well. 22 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 2: There was a question about what Treasury Secretary Scott Besson 23 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 2: said on Capitol Hill today with regard to the status 24 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 2: of meetings or negotiations with China. The present said meetings 25 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 2: had not happened, but they could happen at the right time. 26 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:20,480 Speaker 3: Stressed that China wants to meet. 27 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:23,039 Speaker 2: And they could sign twenty five deals right now if 28 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 2: they wanted to, but very much positioning the United States, 29 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 2: positioning this administration is in the cat bird seat as 30 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 2: those negotiations continue. Notably, during those comments, we saw the 31 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:34,280 Speaker 2: strengthening of the Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso as well. 32 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:37,400 Speaker 2: When the President spoke about the USMCA, that trade deal 33 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:40,200 Speaker 2: that supplanted NAFTA, and the President had a lot of 34 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:42,120 Speaker 2: praise for that deal, didn't have a lot of criticism 35 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 2: of the deal. Over the course of those comments, he 36 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:47,160 Speaker 2: said that it's good, there are subtle changes that could 37 00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 2: be put in place there. They might be talking about 38 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:52,560 Speaker 2: concepts of what that succeeding trade deal might look like, 39 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:55,560 Speaker 2: but said it's sort of the basis of a negotiation. 40 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 2: The words of Prime Minister Mark Karney. There was some 41 00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 2: talk about sovereignty here. The President has threatened Canada's sovereignty 42 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 2: over these last many months, referred to it as a 43 00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:07,520 Speaker 2: potential fifty first state. President Trump saying they're not going 44 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 2: to be discussing that today. Prime Minister Mark Karney indicating 45 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:12,919 Speaker 2: that it should be something that's never discussed, trying to 46 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:15,519 Speaker 2: rule it out entirely, the President of the United States 47 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:18,919 Speaker 2: saying never say never. Want to bring Derek Declouete into 48 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:21,040 Speaker 2: the conversation now. He's our executive editor for Canada and 49 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:24,400 Speaker 2: joins us today from Toronto. He's been watching the prelude 50 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 2: to this bilateral meeting unfold with all of us listening 51 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:30,480 Speaker 2: to it as well here on Bloomberg Radio and on YouTube. Derek, 52 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 2: great to have you with us, and I wonder if 53 00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 2: you could just speak to me about the body language 54 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:36,440 Speaker 2: that you witnessed there. I think there was a lot 55 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:39,079 Speaker 2: of uncertainty about kind of the posturing we would see 56 00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:41,600 Speaker 2: from these two world leaders at this first meeting between 57 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 2: the two of them, with Mark Carney now the twenty 58 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:46,280 Speaker 2: fourth Prime minister. What stood out to you about sort 59 00:02:46,320 --> 00:02:48,120 Speaker 2: of how they approached this in the way that they 60 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:50,360 Speaker 2: spoke to one another and indeed characterize the conversations that 61 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 2: are taking place. 62 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:54,680 Speaker 4: I mean, I think the thing that stood out to 63 00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:59,840 Speaker 4: me was that Trump treated Mark Karney differently than each 64 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 4: he did justin Trudeau, there was there was more of 65 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 4: an element of respect there. Obviously. You know, Trump repeated 66 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:09,960 Speaker 4: many of the lines he has used about Canada, you know, 67 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 4: over months, including things that you know don't really have 68 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 4: a you know, much basis, like the two hundred billion 69 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 4: dollar subsidy and so on. I talked about, you know, 70 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:23,639 Speaker 4: not wanting Canada's cars, all these things that that we've 71 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 4: heard from Trump a number of times over over months. 72 00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:29,919 Speaker 4: But there was there was not really an effort by 73 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:33,640 Speaker 4: Trump to sort of press the case on making Canada 74 00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:35,920 Speaker 4: fifty first states. He said, where I could really be 75 00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 4: discussing that today, not you know, not not going too 76 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:45,839 Speaker 4: far down that road. So Carney didn't speak a whole 77 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 4: lot during that, and there was really you know, I 78 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 4: only I only saw sort of one moment where it 79 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 4: seemed like he felt like he had to, you know, 80 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 4: stand up to the president in some way. But it 81 00:03:56,200 --> 00:03:59,840 Speaker 4: was it was for carneye a lot smoother than otherwise 82 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 4: might have been. 83 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:03,680 Speaker 2: I want to ask you about his approach as we 84 00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:05,320 Speaker 2: dig into that a little bit more. And when he 85 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 2: did speak, he noted that President Trump is, as he put, 86 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 2: a transformational president, a relentless advocate for the American worker. 87 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 2: I think the Prime Minister said, talked about security, talked 88 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:17,680 Speaker 2: about fentanyl, So he clearly knew what to say, or 89 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 2: as well coached on what to say. These are the 90 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:21,840 Speaker 2: issues that President Trump has been harping on here over 91 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 2: these last many months. These are the issues when it 92 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 2: comes to US Canada relations that President Trump clearly cares 93 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 2: a lot about. 94 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:30,839 Speaker 4: Yeah, that's right, I mean he he obviously had, he 95 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:33,840 Speaker 4: had those lines already and they were I'm sure, you know, 96 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 4: somewhat music to the to the President's ears that you know, 97 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:41,120 Speaker 4: he wants to hear those things. And I think you know, 98 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:43,880 Speaker 4: it did emphasize the point right at the beginning there 99 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 4: that Canada also wants to crack down on the funginal trade. 100 00:04:49,360 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 4: I mean, the evidence shows that very little of the 101 00:04:52,720 --> 00:04:56,279 Speaker 4: fuentinel that goes into the US actually comes from Canada. 102 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:59,480 Speaker 4: But Canada has its own ventional problem, and it has 103 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:03,080 Speaker 4: its own uh you know, death rate, overdose rate and 104 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:05,719 Speaker 4: so on. That's that's not that different from what the 105 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 4: US is experiencing. So this notion that you know, sort 106 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:14,880 Speaker 4: of circulated earlier in the presidency when Trudeau was still 107 00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:17,520 Speaker 4: Prime Minister, that Canada was, you know, was the major 108 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:21,680 Speaker 4: problem here. He didn't, you know, Trump didn't speak very 109 00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:24,560 Speaker 4: much about about the ventinal issue and they and he 110 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 4: said very positive things generally about about U. S m 111 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:32,840 Speaker 4: c A, which it was generally a good deal. Of course, 112 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 4: it has to be renegotiated, it has to be changed 113 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 4: and so on. But uh, but not tossing U. S 114 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:40,479 Speaker 4: m c A out in this meeting, which I think 115 00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:42,040 Speaker 4: you know was a bonus. And you saw that in 116 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:45,280 Speaker 4: the Canadian dollar and the Canadian dollar moving at one 117 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:49,239 Speaker 4: point to its highest level since October. As the President 118 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:51,440 Speaker 4: was speaking, I. 119 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 3: Want to ask you just a bit more about that. 120 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,040 Speaker 2: So yes, I noted the strengthening of the currency, the 121 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:57,200 Speaker 2: Canadian dollar and the Mexican paese so as well. And 122 00:05:57,240 --> 00:06:00,240 Speaker 2: sort of beyond the remarks about their their friends in 123 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:03,960 Speaker 2: the relationship between these these two leaders, Uh, we heard 124 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:07,719 Speaker 2: the present kind of wax nostalgic about his Trump roots 125 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 2: and in Canada, having some relations who lived in the country. 126 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:10,920 Speaker 3: Brought up Wayne. 127 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:12,640 Speaker 2: Gretzky as a as a famous Canadian that he has 128 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:15,080 Speaker 2: a lot of effects for brought up mister Avechkin of 129 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:17,800 Speaker 2: the Washington Capitol, So I don't think has any Canadian 130 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:21,000 Speaker 2: roots or history. But buried within all of that was 131 00:06:21,000 --> 00:06:22,760 Speaker 2: a lot of talk about this trade deal, and it's 132 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:25,839 Speaker 2: one that after it was negotiated by the first Trump administration, 133 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:28,680 Speaker 2: the President was very proud of. What is your sense 134 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:30,560 Speaker 2: of as you think about the nuance or changes that 135 00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 2: might be made there, what the prospects for that look like. 136 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:34,920 Speaker 2: Do we have any kind of indication of sort of 137 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:37,920 Speaker 2: what granular changes might be approached here by the President 138 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:38,560 Speaker 2: and the Prime Minister. 139 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:44,440 Speaker 4: Well, I mean, I doubt very much that that there 140 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 4: will be a lot of you know, sort of really 141 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:49,279 Speaker 4: granular stuff dealt with today. But in the in the 142 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:51,599 Speaker 4: in the longer course of time, you know, it's pretty 143 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:54,919 Speaker 4: clear the President is after a few things. One is 144 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:59,039 Speaker 4: the auto sector. Canada exports a little more than a 145 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:02,000 Speaker 4: million vehicles a year to the US. The President would 146 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 4: like that to stomp all together. What will that look like? 147 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:08,280 Speaker 4: And then some other sectors where Canada is a big 148 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:12,120 Speaker 4: exporter lumbers, when the President has has has mentioned a 149 00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:15,440 Speaker 4: number of times and this it didn't come up today 150 00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 4: that I heard, but the dairy sector, where Canada has 151 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 4: a somewhat awkward protectionist stance that's a little bit different 152 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 4: than most other sectors that makes it more difficult for 153 00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:31,760 Speaker 4: US farmers to to to sell into Canada. I'm sure 154 00:07:31,760 --> 00:07:33,240 Speaker 4: that's going to come up, because it comes up at 155 00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 4: every trade negotiation. So we know that there are you know, 156 00:07:37,200 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 4: there are a bunch of friction points, but there are 157 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 4: really three or four major ones, and I would expect 158 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:44,600 Speaker 4: that's where the focus will be when it gets when 159 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:47,240 Speaker 4: it gets down to a review of the U s 160 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 4: m c A whenever that happens. 161 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 2: Derek, one final question for our global audience on Bloomberg 162 00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:55,080 Speaker 2: Radio on YouTube who may not be following this story closely, 163 00:07:55,120 --> 00:07:57,440 Speaker 2: but see the post from this president which he often 164 00:07:57,440 --> 00:08:01,400 Speaker 2: talks about there being this subsidization of two hundred billion dollars. 165 00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 2: He brought it up again here during the course of 166 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 2: that meeting then said, whatever that number might be, but 167 00:08:05,640 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 2: the US has been subsidizing Canada. Again, for those who 168 00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:11,120 Speaker 2: have been following this closely, what is the present referring 169 00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:13,520 Speaker 2: to their help us make sense of that line of 170 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 2: attack that we keep hearing from the President of the 171 00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:15,600 Speaker 2: United States. 172 00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 4: To be honest, nobody's quite certain what he means when 173 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 4: he says two hundred billion dollars. He's never fully explained it. Now, 174 00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 4: if he's talking about the US trade deficit with Canada, 175 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:30,880 Speaker 4: that number last year was thirty six billion dollars goods 176 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 4: and services. It's a little bit higher on the good 177 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:37,560 Speaker 4: side because Canada sells a lot of energy into the US, 178 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 4: and then the US actually has a trade surplus with Canada. 179 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:43,080 Speaker 4: When you net it all out, that's thirty six billion. 180 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:48,000 Speaker 4: I mean, you could decide for yourselves whether whether a 181 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:51,079 Speaker 4: trade deficit constitutes a subsidy. But that's, you know, that's 182 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 4: the number from last year. The President sometimes speaks about 183 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:58,480 Speaker 4: military defense and the fact that Canada has not spent 184 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:01,679 Speaker 4: two percent of GDP, which is what NATO allies are 185 00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:05,040 Speaker 4: supposed to spend on military, and that Carney has said 186 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 4: he's got a plan to ramp it up to two percent. 187 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:10,599 Speaker 4: That's going to take a number of years. So was 188 00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:14,440 Speaker 4: that entering into his calculation. But to be honest, nobody's 189 00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:16,560 Speaker 4: quite broken down the two hundred billion or knows where 190 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:17,120 Speaker 4: it comes from. 191 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 3: Derek, great to speak with you. 192 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:21,840 Speaker 2: Thank you, for the insights as always, Derek Turkluet, who's 193 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:25,280 Speaker 2: our executive editor for Canada here at Bloomberg News. And 194 00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:27,480 Speaker 2: for some more perspective on that meeting that's underway at 195 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:30,440 Speaker 2: the White House between Prime Minister Mark Karney and President Trump. 196 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:32,600 Speaker 2: I want to turn out to our political panel, Rick Davis, 197 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:35,640 Speaker 2: a partner at Stone Court Capital, contributed to Bloomberg Politics, 198 00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:38,880 Speaker 2: and geniecian Zeno, Senior Democracy Fell at the Study Center 199 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:41,360 Speaker 2: for the Study of the Presidency and Congress and a 200 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:43,280 Speaker 2: contributor to Bloomberg Politics as well. 201 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:43,520 Speaker 5: Rick. 202 00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:45,280 Speaker 2: Great to see you, Great to talk to you, as always, 203 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 2: and I'd love to sort of start with where I 204 00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:48,719 Speaker 2: started with Derek, just a moment ago. That is your 205 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:52,679 Speaker 2: reaction to how this prelude to the meeting unfolded the 206 00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:54,480 Speaker 2: Oval Office. We've seen a number of them as world 207 00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:57,240 Speaker 2: leaders have made their way to Washington, as President Trump 208 00:09:57,240 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 2: has started his second term. What stood out to you 209 00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:01,240 Speaker 2: as you watched and listened to these two leaders there 210 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:02,120 Speaker 2: in the Oval Office. 211 00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 6: I was still really amazed by the chill atmosphere in 212 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:11,200 Speaker 6: the Oval Office. Previous leaders have gone in there and 213 00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:15,240 Speaker 6: gotten shanghaied. And here's a guy, Mark Carney, who used 214 00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 6: Donald Trump as a battering ram in his campaign for 215 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:21,560 Speaker 6: Prime minister, and, as Donald Trump said, created the best 216 00:10:21,559 --> 00:10:24,480 Speaker 6: comeback you could ever imagine for the Liberals in Canada 217 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:28,400 Speaker 6: to win that election. Donald Trump undermining the Conservatives with 218 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 6: his hot rhetoric about taking over Canada and make it 219 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 6: a fifty first state. And yet you'd think the two 220 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 6: were old buddies sitting there next to each other. Donald 221 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:40,280 Speaker 6: Trump just, you know, giving all kinds of compliments to 222 00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 6: Mark Carney. I'm sure Mark Carney was sitting there going 223 00:10:43,040 --> 00:10:47,000 Speaker 6: where am I What am I doing here? Trump even 224 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:49,160 Speaker 6: said We're not going to have a meeting like that 225 00:10:49,280 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 6: other guy, meaning I'm sure Zelenski when they just pilloried him. 226 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:59,200 Speaker 6: So I was quite amazed by the really generous comments 227 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:03,640 Speaker 6: by Trump and the atmosphere of being very chill within 228 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:05,280 Speaker 6: that Oval office. 229 00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:07,360 Speaker 2: That chill atmosphere, and Ginny, let me turn to you. 230 00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:09,520 Speaker 2: I mean, there couldn't be a starker contrast between the 231 00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:12,520 Speaker 2: two types of politicians we saw there in the Oval Office. 232 00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 2: Mark Carney, a proud a globalist, someone who's a technocrat, 233 00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 2: has helmed two large central banks, now entering politics for 234 00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:22,480 Speaker 2: the first time as Prime Minister of Canada and a 235 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:26,079 Speaker 2: more bombastic compliment that being Donald Trump, the President of 236 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 2: the United States there for his second term. 237 00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:29,720 Speaker 3: Talk if you would just about the. 238 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:31,840 Speaker 2: Dynamic between them and sort of what you imagine this meeting, 239 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:33,800 Speaker 2: which is going to take place behind closed doors. 240 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 3: Might look like. 241 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:35,520 Speaker 1: Yeah. 242 00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:37,320 Speaker 7: I mean, one of the things they share that you 243 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:40,200 Speaker 7: just alluded to is they famously both come from the 244 00:11:40,240 --> 00:11:43,600 Speaker 7: private sector. And it is very clear that Donald Trump 245 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:46,720 Speaker 7: did not have a lot of goodwill for Trudeau, Freeland 246 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 7: or some of the other people that worked on his team. 247 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 7: And so I think from that perspective, Carney is a 248 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:55,280 Speaker 7: welcome change for the President. And of course the President said, 249 00:11:55,320 --> 00:11:57,560 Speaker 7: you know, you probably wouldn't be here without me, and 250 00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:01,880 Speaker 7: that is absolutely true. And it was very typical Donald 251 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:05,319 Speaker 7: Trump holding court, talking about how there is a big 252 00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:08,960 Speaker 7: announcement to be had. It will be Thursday, Friday, Monday, David, 253 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:12,800 Speaker 7: we don't know, but it's coming. And even Mark Carney said, wow, 254 00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:15,760 Speaker 7: I'm you know, on pins and needles. So from that perspective, 255 00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:18,599 Speaker 7: it was frump the showman and he, you know, was 256 00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:24,400 Speaker 7: really holding court and Carney really was very reserved and 257 00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:27,160 Speaker 7: only pushed back on the issue of the fifty first 258 00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:30,240 Speaker 7: state and you know, to which Donald Trump replied, never 259 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:33,160 Speaker 7: say never. So you know, it was very typical Trump. 260 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:35,480 Speaker 7: But I was particularly taken by the one of the 261 00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 7: last things Donald Trump said when he basically said, in 262 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:42,280 Speaker 7: response to a reporter's question, there's nothing Canada can bring. 263 00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:45,920 Speaker 7: There's nothing that can be said today which would which 264 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:48,720 Speaker 7: would move me to remove these tariffs. And so I 265 00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:51,839 Speaker 7: think that is a strike stark reminder. And of course, 266 00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:55,440 Speaker 7: just before Carney arrived, there was a scathing post on 267 00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:59,040 Speaker 7: truth social from Donald Trump. So I think Carney handled 268 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:01,359 Speaker 7: it well. But I think these will be tough negotiations. 269 00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:04,360 Speaker 7: And Carney said the other day, don't expect white smoke 270 00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:07,440 Speaker 7: after we have this meeting, and I think that that 271 00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:09,400 Speaker 7: is true. I think it's going to be a long, 272 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:13,680 Speaker 7: hard negotiation on these terraffts. But Carney didn't get Zelenski 273 00:13:13,920 --> 00:13:16,800 Speaker 7: to Rick's point, so he started with you know a 274 00:13:16,880 --> 00:13:19,680 Speaker 7: positive there, didn't get Zelenski. 275 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:21,080 Speaker 2: We're gonna come back and talk more on over the 276 00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:22,880 Speaker 2: course of the next hour. But Ginie Sheenzana, thank you 277 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:24,480 Speaker 2: very much for the time. And Rick Davis thanks for 278 00:13:24,520 --> 00:13:27,360 Speaker 2: your time, as well as these two leaders. Mike Mark Karney, 279 00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:30,160 Speaker 2: the Prime Minister of Canada, is now meeting behind closed 280 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:32,679 Speaker 2: doors with President Trump of the United States. They're due 281 00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:35,520 Speaker 2: to have a bilateral meeting their advisors. There are raid 282 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:37,360 Speaker 2: on the couches in the Oval Office and then a 283 00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:40,439 Speaker 2: luncheon after that, and it seems like there's a lot 284 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:44,079 Speaker 2: of bona mee, good vibes, chill atmosphere. As Rick Davis said, 285 00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:45,800 Speaker 2: a moment to go there in the Oval Office. We'll 286 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:47,640 Speaker 2: see what that translates to and if there's any kind 287 00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:49,240 Speaker 2: of announcement that comes out of this. We have yet 288 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:51,560 Speaker 2: to see a world leader come to the Oval Office 289 00:13:51,559 --> 00:13:54,320 Speaker 2: to talk trade, to talk tariff's policy and emerge with 290 00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:57,200 Speaker 2: any kind of concrete memorandum of understanding. And the message 291 00:13:57,280 --> 00:13:59,160 Speaker 2: very much from President Trump there at this meeting is 292 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 2: a lot of country want to make deals with the 293 00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 2: United States, but it is up to him and his 294 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:05,640 Speaker 2: administration des side with whom they're going to make those deals. 295 00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:06,640 Speaker 3: And when. 296 00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:12,200 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast, catch 297 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:15,720 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 298 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:18,800 Speaker 1: Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You 299 00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:22,320 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon, Alexa, from our flagship 300 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:26,240 Speaker 1: New York station. Just say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven. 301 00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 2: Thirty, David Gurray in for Joe Matthew and Kayley Lines 302 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:31,640 Speaker 2: on this Tuesday, as the President of the United States 303 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:34,120 Speaker 2: meets with the Prime Minister of Canada at the White House, 304 00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 2: A lot of uncertainty surrounding this meeting, but it got 305 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:38,280 Speaker 2: off on a good foot. I think you could say 306 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:40,000 Speaker 2: in the Oval Office is those two leaders set in 307 00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 2: front of the fireplace and fielded questions from reporters and 308 00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:45,800 Speaker 2: the President lavishing the Prime Minister with a lot of frey, 309 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:48,040 Speaker 2: a lot of praise, calling him a good person, a 310 00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 2: talented person. 311 00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:50,080 Speaker 3: Said he thought he was. 312 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:52,680 Speaker 2: Excellent during the course of the campaign and talking an 313 00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:55,200 Speaker 2: awful lot about the long standing friendship between the US 314 00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 2: and Canada. That's where I want to go now with 315 00:14:57,520 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 2: the former ambassador. Bruce Hayman from a US ambassador to 316 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:02,360 Speaker 2: cam has spent about four years in Ottawa on behalf 317 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:04,360 Speaker 2: of the United States. Before that, he was a partner 318 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:06,600 Speaker 2: at Goldman Sachs, which is where I should say Mark 319 00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:08,960 Speaker 2: Carney spent a good chunk of his career as well. 320 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:11,000 Speaker 2: He joins us from the Global Conference that the Milkin 321 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:13,520 Speaker 2: Institute is convening out in Beverly Hills, California. I know 322 00:15:13,560 --> 00:15:15,480 Speaker 2: you were busy with all the goings on there out 323 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 2: in California, probably didn't get to watch those comments. 324 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:21,479 Speaker 3: But I look at what you posted on X yesterday. 325 00:15:21,800 --> 00:15:25,360 Speaker 2: You wrote big day tomorrow for Canada USA relations and 326 00:15:25,480 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 2: Bastord Hayman help us understand the importance of this moment 327 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:30,160 Speaker 2: and what you hope will come out of this meeting 328 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:32,560 Speaker 2: taking place between President Trump and Prime Minister Carney. 329 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:36,640 Speaker 8: So thank you very much, and it's a pleasure to 330 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:40,560 Speaker 8: be with you today. There is no more important relationship 331 00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:44,120 Speaker 8: that the United States has than with Canada. It is 332 00:15:44,200 --> 00:15:47,440 Speaker 8: our best trading partner, Yes it is, regardless of what 333 00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:50,920 Speaker 8: you hear. It's our ally, it's our neighbor to the north. 334 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:53,360 Speaker 8: And Canada has always been there for us in our 335 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 8: time of need, in our darkest hours nine to eleven 336 00:15:56,720 --> 00:16:00,920 Speaker 8: Iran hostage crisis, you know, storms just thought recently in 337 00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:04,720 Speaker 8: California where they sent the water carriers in to pour 338 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:09,520 Speaker 8: water over the fires in southern California. Look, Canada's always 339 00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:12,040 Speaker 8: been there for us, and I think what's happened over 340 00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:14,840 Speaker 8: this last one hundred and ten days has been jarring, 341 00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:19,400 Speaker 8: unsettling and upsetting to Canadians, and rightfully so, I think 342 00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 8: today's meeting is a beginning of a reset moment. I 343 00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:26,760 Speaker 8: would say beginning, but I would say everybody was watching 344 00:16:26,920 --> 00:16:30,760 Speaker 8: the body language, the handshake at the beginning the Oval Office, 345 00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 8: where I've been in that Oval Office with Prime Minister 346 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:37,560 Speaker 8: Trudeau and President Obama. I know the context of it, 347 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:40,120 Speaker 8: and I know the feel of the room. It actually 348 00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 8: felt pretty good watching the clips here this morning. Now 349 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 8: we will have more details as the day goes on, 350 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 8: but I think this is a beginning of a reset moment, 351 00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 8: and I think it's an important one for our bilateral relationship. 352 00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:56,560 Speaker 2: And I'm going to pick up on your metaphor of 353 00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:59,160 Speaker 2: using natural disasters here. Over the course of the presidential 354 00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:01,840 Speaker 2: campaign here in the US, you were fond of issuing 355 00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:04,600 Speaker 2: a tsunami warning, indicating that if President Trump were to win, 356 00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:06,040 Speaker 2: this could be, as I think you put it in 357 00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:09,760 Speaker 2: an interview with Politico pro super bad, potentially super bad. 358 00:17:10,320 --> 00:17:12,840 Speaker 2: When you think back on what you were warning about, then, indeed, 359 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:15,480 Speaker 2: what has come to pass since then was the super 360 00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:16,800 Speaker 2: bad assessment merited? 361 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:18,080 Speaker 3: Is this as bad as you thought it might? 362 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:20,440 Speaker 2: Be in terms of how the relationship between these two 363 00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:22,520 Speaker 2: countries has worsened in recent days. 364 00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:26,960 Speaker 8: Actually, it was a bit worse than I had expected. 365 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:27,840 Speaker 5: I did not. 366 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:32,040 Speaker 8: Anticipate a proposed cross the board twenty five percent tariff, 367 00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:34,760 Speaker 8: nor the language of the fifty first state, which I 368 00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 8: think was wholly inappropriate. All of that was completely jarring 369 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:42,160 Speaker 8: for the Canadians and being as upset as they are. Look, 370 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:45,760 Speaker 8: you guys know this. The flights booked over the next 371 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:49,200 Speaker 8: several months from Canada on a pleasure basis or social 372 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:52,639 Speaker 8: basis to the user down seventy five percent. The purchasing 373 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:56,159 Speaker 8: of American goods is not happening, whether it's in liquor stores, 374 00:17:56,200 --> 00:18:00,840 Speaker 8: grocery stores or otherwise. I mean, people are upset in Canada, 375 00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:03,879 Speaker 8: and I think we need to find a pathway to 376 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:06,320 Speaker 8: fix this, and I think this is a good day 377 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 8: to start. 378 00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:10,400 Speaker 3: I should say, I just flew back from Montreal. 379 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:13,159 Speaker 2: In the airport, the terminal in which flights from Canada 380 00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:16,000 Speaker 2: the US originate much emptier than I've seen in the past. 381 00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:18,560 Speaker 2: And to your point about liquor store shelves, I went 382 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:20,440 Speaker 2: out to dinner. There was a kind of a fire 383 00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:23,800 Speaker 2: sale on Californian wine. They were trying to get rid 384 00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:26,119 Speaker 2: of it, which was to my benefit while I was there. 385 00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 2: Let me ask you sort of what you hope to 386 00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:30,600 Speaker 2: come out of this conversation. So I think that the 387 00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:33,360 Speaker 2: broad line that we got from the President the Prime 388 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 2: Minister is, look, there is a friendship between these two countries. 389 00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:37,879 Speaker 2: Talks are going to go well, they're not going to 390 00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:39,879 Speaker 2: talk about sovereignty over the course of their meeting at 391 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:43,120 Speaker 2: the White House today, What to you would constitute a success. 392 00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:46,800 Speaker 2: So we've seen the kind of good, very evident visuals 393 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:48,960 Speaker 2: that these two men are are seemingly getting along. Well, 394 00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:51,400 Speaker 2: what tangibly would you like to see or hear about. 395 00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:53,480 Speaker 3: When these meetings conclude. 396 00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:58,359 Speaker 8: So I do not anticipate an agreement being waived in 397 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:01,600 Speaker 8: the air. That should not be anticipated. And I do 398 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:04,760 Speaker 8: not anticipate that all things will be healed. We heard 399 00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:07,960 Speaker 8: that even in the early conversations with regard to presidents 400 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:11,199 Speaker 8: still wanting tariffs and the back and forth that's going on. 401 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:14,399 Speaker 8: But we need a framework, a framework in which the 402 00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:18,640 Speaker 8: two countries can sit down with respective sides behind closed 403 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:21,879 Speaker 8: doors and sit down and discuss a path forward and 404 00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:25,120 Speaker 8: work on a constructive give and take, and let's get 405 00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:30,280 Speaker 8: this bilateral Trading Agreement fixed and updated and in an 406 00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:34,600 Speaker 8: expeditious way. You know, USMCA, which was the President's agreement, 407 00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:38,960 Speaker 8: is up for review next year, and so why wait 408 00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:41,840 Speaker 8: till all the way through to next year to review that. 409 00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:45,560 Speaker 8: In my opinion, that review should begin post taste and 410 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:48,439 Speaker 8: we should sit down and figure this out so that 411 00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:51,280 Speaker 8: we can get an agreement that everybody's comfortable with, so 412 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:55,399 Speaker 8: business leaders here at the Milken Institute and throughout the 413 00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:59,199 Speaker 8: United States can get comfortable investing in Canada, which they 414 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:02,080 Speaker 8: should be. I think it's an amazing investment opportunity to 415 00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:06,399 Speaker 8: be investing in Canada today, and I am encouraging people. 416 00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:10,080 Speaker 8: I also think it's an incredible opportunity to go visit Canada, 417 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:12,960 Speaker 8: and you know what a beautiful country. And if you 418 00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:15,920 Speaker 8: want to have an international travel experience and take your 419 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:19,399 Speaker 8: family or friends go to Canada, I think you'll really 420 00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:20,440 Speaker 8: have a wonderful time. 421 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:23,680 Speaker 2: Bruce Hayman, I want to ask you lastly for your 422 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:26,320 Speaker 2: perspective or insight into who Mark Carney is. As I 423 00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:29,080 Speaker 2: mentioned a colleague of yours at Goldman Sachs, somebody that 424 00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:30,680 Speaker 2: I know you've observed when he was in his role 425 00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:33,680 Speaker 2: as a kind of technocratic personality in Canada running the 426 00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:35,360 Speaker 2: Bank of Canada and then of course running the Bank 427 00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:38,240 Speaker 2: of England as well. He's a political novice, something he 428 00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:40,800 Speaker 2: touted often when he was on the campaign trail. Just 429 00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:43,399 Speaker 2: give us some insight here into how he approaches thorny 430 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:47,720 Speaker 2: issues like this one, this seemingly intractable one. So what 431 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:49,120 Speaker 2: you're gonna be watching for what we should be paying 432 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:50,679 Speaker 2: attention for in terms of how he kind of comports 433 00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:52,000 Speaker 2: himself and approaches this job. 434 00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:58,000 Speaker 8: So everybody should know this is a serious person. He 435 00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:02,359 Speaker 8: is smart. He is well educated, from Harvard to Oxford. 436 00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:05,920 Speaker 8: He has had incredible jobs, leading the Bank of Canada 437 00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:10,840 Speaker 8: during a financial crisis, leading the Bank of England during Brexit. 438 00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:13,840 Speaker 8: He sat on some of the most significant boards from 439 00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:19,600 Speaker 8: Bloomberg to Brookfield. He is a seriously smart and effective 440 00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:23,119 Speaker 8: and experienced person. To sit at this moment is an 441 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:27,760 Speaker 8: important moment because that's what we're talking about, global trade, tariffs, economy. 442 00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:30,920 Speaker 8: So he comes in with a great deal of competency. 443 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:34,280 Speaker 8: He also has a sense of humor and he also 444 00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:37,720 Speaker 8: you know, has a love of music, and he is 445 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:42,200 Speaker 8: a balanced wonderful person. I think this is a good 446 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 8: leader for Canada at this moment, and I think the 447 00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:47,720 Speaker 8: Canadians are going to be proud of what he does 448 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:51,280 Speaker 8: in these meetings with Donald Trump, which are not easy. 449 00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:53,879 Speaker 8: We've seen many leaders come in and out of that 450 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:57,280 Speaker 8: Oval office and have very different experiences, and I think 451 00:21:57,760 --> 00:21:59,639 Speaker 8: this is at least setting up to be a very 452 00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:01,640 Speaker 8: good one for the Canada US relationship. 453 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:04,840 Speaker 2: Bruce Simon, thank you very much. He was for about 454 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:06,879 Speaker 2: four years our man in Ottawa. He joined us from 455 00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,719 Speaker 2: the Milkon Institute's Global conference in Beverly Hills, California. Very 456 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:12,280 Speaker 2: grateful for his time. On this Tuesday, is that meeting 457 00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:13,760 Speaker 2: between the President of the United States and the Prime 458 00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:16,120 Speaker 2: Minister of Canada wraps up over. 459 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:16,800 Speaker 3: On Capitol Hill. 460 00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:19,960 Speaker 2: US Treasury Secretary Scott Besstt was testifying today before a 461 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:22,600 Speaker 2: House panel on all manner of issues, and something he 462 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:24,879 Speaker 2: talked about over the course of that testimony was the 463 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:26,840 Speaker 2: so called X date when the US is going to 464 00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:27,760 Speaker 2: hit its borrowing limit. 465 00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:29,520 Speaker 3: Let's hear what he had to say about that. 466 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:35,520 Speaker 5: We will share with Congress when we believe we are 467 00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:41,040 Speaker 5: approximating that date, so that will be forthcoming. But I 468 00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:46,800 Speaker 5: will tell you, just as an outfielder running for a 469 00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:51,520 Speaker 5: fly ball, we are on the warning trek, and when 470 00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:53,960 Speaker 5: you're on the warning track, it means the wall is 471 00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:54,600 Speaker 5: not far away. 472 00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 3: The wall is not far away. 473 00:22:57,560 --> 00:22:58,960 Speaker 2: For some more insight into this, I want to bringing 474 00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 2: Dan Flatley, he covers the Treasure Department and Secretary bestent 475 00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:03,440 Speaker 2: for us here at Plenberg News. Dan great to see 476 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:06,800 Speaker 2: if in person there is a hunger on Capitol Hill, 477 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:11,160 Speaker 2: especially among Republicans as negotiations over that big beautiful bill continue, 478 00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 2: for what that X date is, what it's going to be. 479 00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,679 Speaker 2: What is your sense, yes from the testimony we heard today, 480 00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:19,359 Speaker 2: but from your reporting of a when we're going to 481 00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:21,840 Speaker 2: get insight into that and sort of where on the 482 00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:22,960 Speaker 2: calendar it might fall. 483 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,320 Speaker 9: Yeah, David, it's a great question. And actually it was 484 00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 9: a Republican who asked Secretary Bessett this question in the 485 00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:33,439 Speaker 9: hearing today, and he sort of disappointed us all by saying, 486 00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:35,960 Speaker 9: you know, we don't have that yet, or you know, 487 00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,159 Speaker 9: we're not prepared to share that. Although we had a 488 00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:41,920 Speaker 9: very interesting comparison to an outfielder running for the fly 489 00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:44,720 Speaker 9: ball as we heard there. I think that he has 490 00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:46,879 Speaker 9: said in the past, and Treasury has said sometime in 491 00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:49,479 Speaker 9: the first half of May. So obviously we're in that 492 00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:54,000 Speaker 9: window right now. Why this matters is because Congress, as 493 00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:56,040 Speaker 9: you well know, David needs a deadline in order to 494 00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:58,840 Speaker 9: get anything done. And the X date really is like 495 00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:03,080 Speaker 9: the deadline of deadline. Because Bessant later on in his 496 00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:05,919 Speaker 9: testimony made a point of saying the US will not 497 00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:10,520 Speaker 9: default on its debt, will not breach the debt ceiling. Ultimately, 498 00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:14,160 Speaker 9: we'll pay its obligations, and that is what you'd expect 499 00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:16,399 Speaker 9: him to say, but still a very important thing for 500 00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:18,800 Speaker 9: him to say. And so when you're talking about the 501 00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:20,760 Speaker 9: tax bill that the Republicans are working on, when you're 502 00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:23,000 Speaker 9: talking about revenue from tariffs that they're looking at, when 503 00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:24,760 Speaker 9: you're talking about all of the things that are happening 504 00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:27,119 Speaker 9: with the economy, it really kind of comes down to 505 00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:30,120 Speaker 9: that what we call the X state. So we didn't 506 00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:33,720 Speaker 9: get it today, we may get it any day now, really, 507 00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,159 Speaker 9: and so we're all sort of on tenter hooks waiting, 508 00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:39,480 Speaker 9: and so you know, he's keeping us in suspense. 509 00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:42,240 Speaker 2: You know, we had Nathan Dean on a little earlier 510 00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:45,200 Speaker 2: and he referred to Scott Best as the calmer in chief. 511 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:47,720 Speaker 2: That's the role that he's playing in this administration. We 512 00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:50,159 Speaker 2: certainly saw that on display in California yesterday when he 513 00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:53,440 Speaker 2: talked to global investors. Was it the same Scott Besson's 514 00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:55,600 Speaker 2: in that hearing room today? So what's the role, as 515 00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:57,000 Speaker 2: you see it, that he's playing. Is he kind of 516 00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:00,719 Speaker 2: communicates this president's yes economic vision, but also sort of 517 00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:04,160 Speaker 2: gives a status update on the present's economic agenda. 518 00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:07,040 Speaker 9: Yeah, it's a good question. I think it was during 519 00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:11,200 Speaker 9: his confirmation hearing one of the senators remarked to him 520 00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:14,479 Speaker 9: that he must have a pulse rate of about forty 521 00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:18,359 Speaker 9: beats per minute. So he does kind of project this 522 00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:22,640 Speaker 9: very calm, cool, collected affect at times. I think that 523 00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,159 Speaker 9: caught some members off guard. They wanted him to be 524 00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:27,359 Speaker 9: maybe a little bit more animated when you heard some 525 00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:29,920 Speaker 9: of the questioning from Democrats. They wanted him to answer 526 00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:33,320 Speaker 9: some of their questions and wanted him to do it quickly. 527 00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:38,359 Speaker 9: And so, you know, he uses kind of that, you know, 528 00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:41,160 Speaker 9: that demeanor to his advantage in those types of scenarios. 529 00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:46,400 Speaker 9: But certainly he has kind of played this role of 530 00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:50,520 Speaker 9: calming the markets. We did see stocks pair some of 531 00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:53,800 Speaker 9: their losses. After he spoke on trade, he mentioned that 532 00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:55,800 Speaker 9: that he thinks that eighty to ninety percent of the 533 00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:58,800 Speaker 9: trade deals that they're sort of actively working on could 534 00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:00,560 Speaker 9: be negotiated by the end of the year. 535 00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:02,320 Speaker 3: We're hearing different. 536 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,400 Speaker 9: Timelines obviously on these trade deals, and we haven't yet 537 00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:08,359 Speaker 9: seen one materialize. And then of course President Trump came 538 00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:10,840 Speaker 9: out later and said that, you know, he's going to 539 00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:13,040 Speaker 9: negotiate these deals on his own terms, and he's not 540 00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:18,280 Speaker 9: looking at lowering tariff rates necessarily. So maybe some good 541 00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:20,760 Speaker 9: cop bad cop, maybe some of a calming force, some 542 00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:25,879 Speaker 9: lit of a more energetic, some might say chaotic force. 543 00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:28,760 Speaker 9: You know, that certainly seems to be part of this 544 00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:32,360 Speaker 9: strategic uncertainty, to use a phrase that Secretary Bessett used 545 00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:35,120 Speaker 9: today to try to bring some of these deals over 546 00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:38,800 Speaker 9: the finish line. But I think that he played his 547 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:43,120 Speaker 9: role relatively well today in terms of answering questions before 548 00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:46,399 Speaker 9: the House Appropriations Committee. Tomorrow he'll go before the House 549 00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:49,840 Speaker 9: Financial Services Committee, much bigger panel, a little bit more 550 00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:52,680 Speaker 9: raucous in terms of the questions that he's expected to get, 551 00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:55,080 Speaker 9: and so we may see him pressed on some of 552 00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:57,080 Speaker 9: these issues a little bit more than he was today. 553 00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:58,480 Speaker 3: Very quickly, just about thirty seconds. 554 00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:01,480 Speaker 2: We've talked about his role with investors on capitol, how 555 00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:03,159 Speaker 2: about in these trade talks themselves, So if what's his 556 00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:04,960 Speaker 2: ariement or what is he focusing on, Well. 557 00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:05,359 Speaker 3: It's interesting. 558 00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:07,879 Speaker 9: I mean, he kind of inserted himself really into the 559 00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,000 Speaker 9: middle of a lot of these trade talks, including with Japan, 560 00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:12,800 Speaker 9: which he has a history with as an investor. He's 561 00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:15,120 Speaker 9: now kind of taking a little bit of a step back. 562 00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:17,360 Speaker 9: He was asked the other day saying the US Trade 563 00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:19,320 Speaker 9: representative is handling a little bit more of the details 564 00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:22,520 Speaker 9: and stuff like that. But the Japan the officials from 565 00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:25,240 Speaker 9: Japan word Treasury last week, so he's still very much involved. 566 00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:26,800 Speaker 2: For sure, very much involved. We'll look forward to your 567 00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:28,760 Speaker 2: coverage of the hearing tomorrow. Dan Flatly, thank you very much. 568 00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:31,120 Speaker 2: Dan Flatly covers the Treasure Department for US here at 569 00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:33,679 Speaker 2: Bloomberg News. And we did hear from the Treasury secretary 570 00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:37,159 Speaker 2: about the status of those talks between the US and China. 571 00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:40,520 Speaker 2: He indicated those negation negotiations are not underway, and that 572 00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:42,359 Speaker 2: was certainly a question that was asked if the President 573 00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:44,240 Speaker 2: during that prelude to the meeting that he's having with 574 00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:46,920 Speaker 2: Prime Minister Mark Karney and the President of the United States, 575 00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:49,760 Speaker 2: saying no negotiats have taken place, but they do want 576 00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:51,800 Speaker 2: to meet China doesn't want to meet up with the US. 577 00:27:56,640 --> 00:27:59,119 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 578 00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:02,840 Speaker 8: To subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify 579 00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:05,520 Speaker 2: Or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 580 00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:09,280 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at 581 00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:10,520 Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot com.