Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: In a single best idea and with the news flow,
Speaker 2: it has just been extraordinary. There's no other way to
Speaker 2: put it. We tried to put together today and I
Speaker 2: think we succeeded with a really eclectic group of guests,
Speaker 2: but also guests that have been very busy. Adam Posen
Speaker 2: joined us from the Peterson Institute. It was just brilliant.
Speaker 2: We've spent literally weeks trying to tie down Leland Miller.
Speaker 2: He's a China beig book. This is a guy out
Speaker 2: of Darden at Uva who constructed the granularity of the
Speaker 2: Chinese economy and from that is expert on trade. Leland
Speaker 2: Miller has gone back and forth with certain parties within
Speaker 2: the new Trump administration, not advising them that's inaccurate, but
Speaker 2: you know, mentioning to them as they call upon him
Speaker 2: on Chinese dynamics. Leland Miller here of China base book
Speaker 2: on the new trade war.
Speaker 1: We're entering trade war time.
Speaker 3: Obviously, there's tariffs coming from every direction, and I think
Speaker 3: it's important to to separate what's happening with China from
Speaker 3: what's happening with the rest of the world, because I
Speaker 3: think there's a different discussion around economic imbalances in China,
Speaker 3: which which are not even the focus of the current tariff.
Speaker 1: So you know, there's a there's a.
Speaker 3: Mexico Canada strategy that they're working on, there's a broader
Speaker 3: world strategy in terms of restructuring economic relationships and in
Speaker 3: figuring out the you know, lessening the trade surplus.
Speaker 1: And then there's China. And I think the China.
Speaker 3: Discussion is the one that we've yet to have, and
Speaker 3: it's going to go to several different directions, whether it's
Speaker 3: you know, Trump going to to China at first trying
Speaker 3: to get a trade deal and then going another direction.
Speaker 3: We don't know yet, but that but that's what that's
Speaker 3: the one that's to come.
Speaker 2: Leland Miller. In that conversation, he made clear he still
Speaker 2: looks at China GDP as a manufactured five percent. He
Speaker 2: was not optimistic about clarity on economic growth in China.
Speaker 2: We talked about the non bilateral realities and that everyone,
Speaker 2: not just the administration, loves to talk about the simplicity
Speaker 2: of bilateral dynamics in a multilateral world. Miller's expert on that.
Speaker 2: But here on the timeline from the Trump one to
Speaker 2: Trump two administrations. Leland Miller.
Speaker 3: The first term, it's correct, it was very different in
Speaker 3: a lot of ways than than than this Trump second term,
Speaker 3: and that Trump was constantly looking for victories. You know,
Speaker 3: he renegotiated NAFTA, he renegotiated Chorus, he negotiated a trade
Speaker 3: deal with with China.
Speaker 1: These were victories.
Speaker 3: He was using tariffs for the most part as negotiating
Speaker 3: leverage towards an outcome. The goal in the second term
Speaker 3: is very different, and markets have refused to believe this.
Speaker 3: They they've they've you know, maybe they do now with
Speaker 3: the market doing what it's doing. But the Trump administration
Speaker 3: and the President himself wants to restructure economic relationship in
Speaker 3: a lasting way. He wants to shift the whole paradigm
Speaker 3: and so set up a wall around the United States,
Speaker 3: cut taxi for domestic manufacturers, and incentivize.
Speaker 1: Industries to come home.
Speaker 3: And so because of this, there is much more of
Speaker 3: an intention to go at all these different blocks and
Speaker 3: countries and go after trade surplus countries and try to
Speaker 3: write the economic relationship and bring some of these industries
Speaker 3: back home.
Speaker 1: So the idea is much.
Speaker 3: Bigger than Trump term one. This is something they want
Speaker 3: to leave a legacy on in terms of just redifying
Speaker 3: the way America does business around the world.
Speaker 2: Leland Miller of China Beige Book on your morning commute
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