WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Leland Miller

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>In a single best idea and with the news flow,

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<v Speaker 2>it has just been extraordinary. There's no other way to

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<v Speaker 2>put it. We tried to put together today and I

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<v Speaker 2>think we succeeded with a really eclectic group of guests,

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<v Speaker 2>but also guests that have been very busy. Adam Posen

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<v Speaker 2>joined us from the Peterson Institute. It was just brilliant.

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<v Speaker 2>We've spent literally weeks trying to tie down Leland Miller.

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<v Speaker 2>He's a China beig book. This is a guy out

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<v Speaker 2>of Darden at Uva who constructed the granularity of the

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<v Speaker 2>Chinese economy and from that is expert on trade. Leland

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<v Speaker 2>Miller has gone back and forth with certain parties within

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<v Speaker 2>the new Trump administration, not advising them that's inaccurate, but

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<v Speaker 2>you know, mentioning to them as they call upon him

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<v Speaker 2>on Chinese dynamics. Leland Miller here of China base book

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<v Speaker 2>on the new trade war.

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<v Speaker 1>We're entering trade war time.

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<v Speaker 3>Obviously, there's tariffs coming from every direction, and I think

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<v Speaker 3>it's important to to separate what's happening with China from

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<v Speaker 3>what's happening with the rest of the world, because I

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<v Speaker 3>think there's a different discussion around economic imbalances in China,

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<v Speaker 3>which which are not even the focus of the current tariff.

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<v Speaker 1>So you know, there's a there's a.

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<v Speaker 3>Mexico Canada strategy that they're working on, there's a broader

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<v Speaker 3>world strategy in terms of restructuring economic relationships and in

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<v Speaker 3>figuring out the you know, lessening the trade surplus.

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<v Speaker 1>And then there's China. And I think the China.

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<v Speaker 3>Discussion is the one that we've yet to have, and

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<v Speaker 3>it's going to go to several different directions, whether it's

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<v Speaker 3>you know, Trump going to to China at first trying

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<v Speaker 3>to get a trade deal and then going another direction.

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<v Speaker 3>We don't know yet, but that but that's what that's

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<v Speaker 3>the one that's to come.

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<v Speaker 2>Leland Miller. In that conversation, he made clear he still

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<v Speaker 2>looks at China GDP as a manufactured five percent. He

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<v Speaker 2>was not optimistic about clarity on economic growth in China.

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<v Speaker 2>We talked about the non bilateral realities and that everyone,

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<v Speaker 2>not just the administration, loves to talk about the simplicity

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<v Speaker 2>of bilateral dynamics in a multilateral world. Miller's expert on that.

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<v Speaker 2>But here on the timeline from the Trump one to

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<v Speaker 2>Trump two administrations. Leland Miller.

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<v Speaker 3>The first term, it's correct, it was very different in

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of ways than than than this Trump second term,

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<v Speaker 3>and that Trump was constantly looking for victories. You know,

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<v Speaker 3>he renegotiated NAFTA, he renegotiated Chorus, he negotiated a trade

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<v Speaker 3>deal with with China.

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<v Speaker 1>These were victories.

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<v Speaker 3>He was using tariffs for the most part as negotiating

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<v Speaker 3>leverage towards an outcome. The goal in the second term

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<v Speaker 3>is very different, and markets have refused to believe this.

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<v Speaker 3>They they've they've you know, maybe they do now with

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<v Speaker 3>the market doing what it's doing. But the Trump administration

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<v Speaker 3>and the President himself wants to restructure economic relationship in

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<v Speaker 3>a lasting way. He wants to shift the whole paradigm

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<v Speaker 3>and so set up a wall around the United States,

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<v Speaker 3>cut taxi for domestic manufacturers, and incentivize.

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<v Speaker 1>Industries to come home.

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<v Speaker 3>And so because of this, there is much more of

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<v Speaker 3>an intention to go at all these different blocks and

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<v Speaker 3>countries and go after trade surplus countries and try to

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<v Speaker 3>write the economic relationship and bring some of these industries

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<v Speaker 3>back home.

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<v Speaker 1>So the idea is much.

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<v Speaker 3>Bigger than Trump term one. This is something they want

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<v Speaker 3>to leave a legacy on in terms of just redifying

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<v Speaker 3>the way America does business around the world.

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<v Speaker 2>Leland Miller of China Beige Book on your morning commute

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<v Speaker 2>across the nation, across Canada, we say good morning on

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