WEBVTT - Can Africa reverse the trend of No Contest Elections? 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:07.040 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:09.480 --> 0:00:13.640 Elections in Cameroon and Ivory Coasts saw victories for their 0:00:13.680 --> 0:00:16.439 long serving leaders. 0:00:16.440 --> 0:00:20.239 Mister Alison Watara has been provisionally declared elected in the 0:00:20.280 --> 0:00:23.639 first round with eighty nine point seven seven percent of 0:00:23.640 --> 0:00:28.480 the votes cast. 0:00:27.080 --> 0:00:31.000 But with opposition candidates barred from running. There's a warning 0:00:31.200 --> 0:00:36.320 about the rise of democratic dictators. The population knows very 0:00:36.320 --> 0:00:41.280 well that the Constitutional Council and the Electoral Commission are 0:00:41.479 --> 0:00:44.960 just an extension of the regime. On today's podcast, we're 0:00:45.000 --> 0:00:49.680 discussing the wave of no contest elections across Africa, why 0:00:49.720 --> 0:00:54.520 political analysts are concerned, and which countries are bucking the trend. 0:00:57.440 --> 0:01:00.120 I'm Jennifer Zaba Saja and this is the Next to 0:01:00.160 --> 0:01:03.680 Africa podcast, bringing you one story each week from the 0:01:03.720 --> 0:01:07.000 continent driving the future of global growth with the context 0:01:07.120 --> 0:01:12.000 only Bloomberg can provide. Joining me this week is Bloomberg 0:01:12.080 --> 0:01:15.920 Senior reporter Yinka Ibukun, who's written one of this week's 0:01:15.959 --> 0:01:18.720 Next Africa newsletters on this very subject. 0:01:19.080 --> 0:01:21.440 Yinka, thanks so much for being with us this week. 0:01:21.920 --> 0:01:23.160 Thanks for having me ched. 0:01:23.480 --> 0:01:25.560 Yeah, it's it's always great to speak with you and 0:01:25.640 --> 0:01:28.920 catch up with you, there's been quite an activity, at 0:01:29.000 --> 0:01:32.280 least on the electoral front across the continent, and we're 0:01:32.280 --> 0:01:35.080 going to try to unpack it in the next few minutes. 0:01:35.120 --> 0:01:39.760 But maybe we'd just start with Cameroon because many people 0:01:39.880 --> 0:01:44.679 are looking at the age of Paulbia, ninety two years old. 0:01:44.840 --> 0:01:48.520 He won an eighth term and he's the world's oldest president. 0:01:48.880 --> 0:01:51.720 I mean, break this down for us. What would you 0:01:51.720 --> 0:01:53.720 say is the significance of this election? 0:01:55.160 --> 0:01:58.800 Yeah, well, I mean this election has put cameboon at 0:01:58.800 --> 0:02:02.960 Adges Crossroad. I would say that the attentions kicked off 0:02:03.000 --> 0:02:06.240 when the main opposition leader was barred from running back 0:02:06.400 --> 0:02:10.720 in July, and that basically meant that the president would 0:02:10.720 --> 0:02:15.760 be facing a weekend opposition. But it was the candidacy 0:02:15.880 --> 0:02:19.760 of Ista Chiroma Bakari, who's a man who served in 0:02:19.840 --> 0:02:24.040 the Bia administration for about two decades, that ended up 0:02:24.080 --> 0:02:28.440 being the real game changer in this election because young 0:02:28.560 --> 0:02:32.720 people have been hungry for change in Cameroon. They've never 0:02:32.800 --> 0:02:37.440 known any leader other than Bia, and so they rallied 0:02:37.440 --> 0:02:42.200 around Chiroma and came out and masked to vote for him, 0:02:42.680 --> 0:02:45.920 to the point where Chiroma actually declared himself winner of 0:02:45.960 --> 0:02:49.320 the vote by his own party tally FO. Days later, 0:02:49.440 --> 0:02:52.640 the official results said that it was President Bia and 0:02:52.760 --> 0:02:56.360 not Chiroma, who won the election with four percent of 0:02:56.400 --> 0:03:01.240 the vote, and so that decisive win has fit claims 0:03:01.240 --> 0:03:04.720 that there was rigging, especially because the are barely even 0:03:04.840 --> 0:03:08.240 campaign and as you said, he's ninety two years old, 0:03:08.280 --> 0:03:11.520 the oldest president in the world. He's been in power 0:03:11.720 --> 0:03:15.760 in Cameroon for more than forty years, and so. 0:03:15.880 --> 0:03:17.920 Here you are, he hardly. 0:03:17.560 --> 0:03:20.560 Shows up at the campaign and still walks away with 0:03:20.639 --> 0:03:24.280 a comfortable win in a country that's basically facing a 0:03:24.320 --> 0:03:30.239 successionist war, where his administration has chased lots of corruption scandals, 0:03:30.720 --> 0:03:34.800 and also where there's really high youth unemployment. And so 0:03:34.880 --> 0:03:40.240 as we speak, there's actually sporadic protests erupting across Cameroon 0:03:41.520 --> 0:03:43.680 to challenge the outcome of the vote. 0:03:44.120 --> 0:03:47.960 Wow, and a country with the median age of eighteen 0:03:48.040 --> 0:03:51.920 years old, right having, as you mentioned, probably haven't known 0:03:52.080 --> 0:03:55.920 any other leader, most of them, Yinka. Let's also move 0:03:55.960 --> 0:03:58.720 on to the Ivory Coast. In an earlier podcast, we 0:03:58.800 --> 0:04:01.440 talked about some of the challenges that the country was 0:04:01.440 --> 0:04:06.080 facing leading up to October's vote. Now Watara has been 0:04:06.280 --> 0:04:09.440 re elected. What do you make of the response, and 0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:12.960 especially from the international community because he is well known 0:04:13.360 --> 0:04:16.200 and to a certain extent well regarded internationally. 0:04:16.680 --> 0:04:20.280 So Ivory Coasts also just concluded its vote and Wataha 0:04:20.279 --> 0:04:25.599 won with ninety percent of the vote after key challenges 0:04:25.640 --> 0:04:29.200 were excluded. So with that result, you know, there's also 0:04:29.360 --> 0:04:33.200 eyebrows being raised. It was hardly an open vote, I 0:04:33.240 --> 0:04:37.280 think that's fair to say, but the international community has 0:04:37.360 --> 0:04:43.200 largely looked away, and there's probably two reasons why that is. First, 0:04:43.279 --> 0:04:48.120 Wataha has delivered strong economic growth for Courdivois, which is 0:04:48.640 --> 0:04:53.880 Africa's biggest coco producer, and he's created an investor friendly 0:04:54.000 --> 0:04:59.160 environment there. But perhaps more importantly, he's seen as a reliable, 0:04:59.600 --> 0:05:03.560 secure ally in a region that's been threatened by jihadists. 0:05:04.400 --> 0:05:09.000 And so for Western government it's likely a situation where 0:05:09.240 --> 0:05:15.520 they're balancing their priorities and choosing probably stability of more 0:05:15.560 --> 0:05:19.360 democratic concerns. Though it's interesting to note that it's actually 0:05:19.360 --> 0:05:23.599 not been like the regular congratulatory messages, so they've not 0:05:23.680 --> 0:05:28.039 criticized the vote, but they's not congratulated Wataha either. 0:05:28.640 --> 0:05:31.680 And let's go from the West to the east. Yinka. 0:05:31.720 --> 0:05:35.559 Because Tanzania just went to the polls on Wednesday where 0:05:35.720 --> 0:05:38.160 another opposition figure was barred from running. 0:05:38.880 --> 0:05:40.720 What's the state of play there. 0:05:41.120 --> 0:05:44.599 Unfortunately, it's more of the same Jenet bite. It's becoming 0:05:44.640 --> 0:05:49.280 a pattern. This a situation where the opposition is barred 0:05:49.480 --> 0:05:53.160 and then a clear path is created for the incumbent 0:05:53.360 --> 0:05:57.920 to stay in power. And so what you saw in 0:05:58.040 --> 0:06:02.200 Cameroon in Ivory coast's basically also happening in different ways 0:06:02.240 --> 0:06:04.839 to a different degree, but it's happening all the same 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:09.680 in Tanzania. And so in the case of President Samya 0:06:09.760 --> 0:06:14.039 Suluhu Hassan, it's two main key opponents that were barred 0:06:14.080 --> 0:06:18.520 from running, including one that's facing trees and charges. And 0:06:18.640 --> 0:06:22.760 so yes, even though the vote has happened, there was 0:06:22.800 --> 0:06:26.760 an election, balance boxes were put out. The outcome is 0:06:26.800 --> 0:06:29.320 pretty predictable there also. 0:06:29.440 --> 0:06:32.560 And there's quite a crackdown on what's happening on the ground. 0:06:33.240 --> 0:06:37.080 There's a security forces cracked out, but also interestingly there's 0:06:37.080 --> 0:06:40.359 been a crackdown on the internet. And I think that 0:06:40.520 --> 0:06:45.760 what you see cutting across Tanzania, Ivory Coast and Cameroon 0:06:45.839 --> 0:06:48.159 and really across Africa is that you have a really 0:06:48.200 --> 0:06:53.440 young population, and they're challenging the status quo in ways 0:06:53.480 --> 0:06:57.640 that you know, these traditional systems aren't used to. There's 0:06:57.720 --> 0:07:01.600 no central leader. They are able to mobilize each other 0:07:01.800 --> 0:07:08.279 through social media, and that's making governments wary and so basically, 0:07:08.320 --> 0:07:11.760 in the case of Tanzania, they literally shut off the Internet. 0:07:11.640 --> 0:07:14.680 Wow, which, as we've seen, it's a powerful tool for 0:07:14.760 --> 0:07:19.320 a number of organizers INCA. For this piece, I understand 0:07:19.360 --> 0:07:22.480 you spoke to a political scientist who gave you his 0:07:22.640 --> 0:07:25.400 own concerns about these no contest elections. 0:07:25.400 --> 0:07:26.240 What did he say to you? 0:07:26.680 --> 0:07:29.040 Yeah, So I did this piece with my colleague at 0:07:29.120 --> 0:07:32.200 Cordonto who went to the University of Ghana and spoke 0:07:32.240 --> 0:07:36.480 to a lecturer there, Kwame asa Asante, and so he 0:07:36.600 --> 0:07:39.400 told him that, you know, this trend of blocking the 0:07:39.440 --> 0:07:43.840 opposition to allow the comments to stain power is given 0:07:44.000 --> 0:07:48.280 rise to democratic dictators where you kind of keep the 0:07:48.360 --> 0:07:52.000 appearance of the democracy. You have the ballot boxes, you 0:07:52.080 --> 0:07:57.360 have the constitutional courts, all the stuff that a democracy 0:07:57.400 --> 0:08:01.400 should have, but actually there's no real choice. Citizens don't 0:08:01.440 --> 0:08:05.800 get to pick who's going to rule over them, and 0:08:05.880 --> 0:08:11.840 so that authoritarian drift is actually prompting military take overies 0:08:11.880 --> 0:08:15.720 in many places, it's tempting the military to basically jump 0:08:15.760 --> 0:08:19.080 in and say, hey, we're here and we can restore order. 0:08:19.760 --> 0:08:23.440 The democracy's flawed, this corruption, and we can do better 0:08:23.480 --> 0:08:27.280 than this so called democratic leaders. And so we've seen 0:08:27.320 --> 0:08:31.240 that play out in the Sahel, especially where we'll actually 0:08:31.360 --> 0:08:36.000 jumulated in the streets when soldiers took over. And so 0:08:36.920 --> 0:08:42.199 that's what he's concerned about, that we're creating the conditions 0:08:42.240 --> 0:08:44.760 for military takeovers to happen more broadly. 0:08:45.320 --> 0:08:47.920 And we also saw that from Madagascar just a few 0:08:47.960 --> 0:08:48.520 days ago. 0:08:49.120 --> 0:08:49.679 Exactly. 0:08:50.200 --> 0:08:51.839 Binka hold that thought. 0:08:51.880 --> 0:08:53.600 When we come back from the break, well, look at 0:08:53.640 --> 0:08:57.079 where in Africa is going against this trend and potentially 0:08:57.120 --> 0:08:59.800 what we might be able to learn from some of those. 0:09:00.600 --> 0:09:08.320 We'll be right back. Welcome back. Today. 0:09:08.360 --> 0:09:11.120 We're looking at the recent run of so called no 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:15.000 contest elections in Africa and what they say about the 0:09:15.040 --> 0:09:19.640 state of democracy on the continent. Senior reporter Yinka Ibukun 0:09:19.880 --> 0:09:23.760 is still with me. Yinka, you use the example of 0:09:23.840 --> 0:09:27.520 Senegal in your piece. For those who may not remember 0:09:28.160 --> 0:09:30.600 last year, how did that unfold? 0:09:31.000 --> 0:09:35.640 So? I mean Senego had its election last year and 0:09:35.840 --> 0:09:39.480 Senegal is basically a bright light of hope in the 0:09:39.480 --> 0:09:44.120 context that we find ourselves in today. Because in Senegal, 0:09:44.280 --> 0:09:48.880 what happened was that President Makishal at the time was 0:09:48.920 --> 0:09:51.280 basically looking like he was going to go for a 0:09:51.360 --> 0:09:54.760 third term, which would have been at least by the text, 0:09:54.880 --> 0:09:59.360 un constitutional, and so there were huge protests that broke 0:09:59.440 --> 0:10:02.960 out across Senecal to prevent him from doing so, and 0:10:03.040 --> 0:10:06.520 he eventually announced that he had no intention of running 0:10:06.559 --> 0:10:10.240 at that term, and so it was really the people 0:10:10.480 --> 0:10:17.600 who forced a president to basically honor the constitution there. 0:10:18.480 --> 0:10:21.319 It's a really young country. We've said this for all 0:10:21.360 --> 0:10:26.080 the countries we've mentioned so far, And what happened after 0:10:26.160 --> 0:10:29.240 that was that it was really a generational shift. The 0:10:29.280 --> 0:10:33.400 president that they ended up electing was forty four years 0:10:33.400 --> 0:10:36.200 old at the time, the youngest president I think in 0:10:36.280 --> 0:10:40.400 Africa elected, and so it was a generational shift that 0:10:40.520 --> 0:10:45.000 happened there and a response to young people's demands. 0:10:45.520 --> 0:10:50.480 Are we seeing similar instances of success elsewhere? 0:10:51.400 --> 0:10:54.440 I mean, what we're seeing is youth pushed back. People 0:10:54.480 --> 0:10:59.640 are organizing through social medias and other means, and their 0:10:59.679 --> 0:11:05.520 demand better and in some cases it's toupled governments in Nepal, 0:11:05.760 --> 0:11:09.960 in Bangladesh. In other cases, it's just made sure that 0:11:10.120 --> 0:11:14.880 people's voices have been heard in Kenya, in Mozambique, in Morocco, 0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:19.319 and so you're seeing young people more willing to mobilize 0:11:19.320 --> 0:11:24.400 these countries and majority young people, and they are increasingly 0:11:24.520 --> 0:11:28.160 have little to lose because often the growth that you're 0:11:28.200 --> 0:11:31.400 seeing in these countries is not inclusive. It's not creating 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:35.200 enough jobs for them. And in the case of Madagascar, 0:11:35.280 --> 0:11:38.120 for instance, they were asking for really basic things like 0:11:38.120 --> 0:11:41.720 it started off with them just asking for water and electricity, 0:11:41.800 --> 0:11:44.360 you know, and it ended up toppling a government and 0:11:44.559 --> 0:11:49.240 bringing in a military leadership. So it's really about young 0:11:49.320 --> 0:11:51.719 people mobilizing getting better at it. 0:11:52.080 --> 0:11:54.720 Yeah, and it goes to show really what you know, 0:11:54.800 --> 0:11:58.240 that these leaders can't ignore this. You know, you mentioned 0:11:58.280 --> 0:12:01.560 Kenya and we saw changes after a lot of those 0:12:01.600 --> 0:12:06.560 protests that unfortunately were deadly, but you know, the president 0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:09.880 actually had to take notice of some of the changes 0:12:09.880 --> 0:12:12.920 that they were calling for, which I think was really 0:12:12.960 --> 0:12:14.119 notable to mention. 0:12:14.160 --> 0:12:15.360 Yinka before we let you go. 0:12:16.080 --> 0:12:18.679 It's also worth mentioning because you point out in your 0:12:18.679 --> 0:12:22.240 piece it's not all necessarily doom and gloom when it 0:12:22.280 --> 0:12:26.160 comes to transitions of power. There was Ghana, Malawi and 0:12:26.200 --> 0:12:30.200 the Seychelles this year. What are you paying attention to 0:12:30.480 --> 0:12:32.719 just to get a sense of maybe where things are 0:12:32.720 --> 0:12:33.400 headed next. 0:12:34.080 --> 0:12:37.480 I mean, you mentioned deadly protests and that's really sad 0:12:37.520 --> 0:12:40.120 where people have to lose their lives to make a point, 0:12:40.200 --> 0:12:44.439 you know, to have their voices heard. And so I'm 0:12:44.480 --> 0:12:49.080 actually looking at these gen z movements of young people mobilizing, 0:12:49.200 --> 0:12:53.640 but more so beyond that mobilization, like if it's able 0:12:54.040 --> 0:12:56.960 to bring about real change. And I don't know how 0:12:57.040 --> 0:13:01.000 much change it can actually bring when you still have constitutions, 0:13:01.600 --> 0:13:06.400 when the courts uh compromised or the electrical commissions aren't 0:13:06.480 --> 0:13:09.800 truly independent. You don't want to just have people put 0:13:09.800 --> 0:13:13.120 their bodies on the line but then have your real change. 0:13:13.120 --> 0:13:16.360 So I'm looking for real change and what that would 0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:19.920 look like coast dis genity movement in each of these 0:13:19.960 --> 0:13:21.640 countries and beyond. 0:13:22.160 --> 0:13:25.160 Yinka, thank you so much for joining us as always 0:13:25.200 --> 0:13:28.400 and for all of your reporting, and you can read 0:13:28.520 --> 0:13:33.839 Yinka's reporting on Bloomberg platforms now, including our Next Africa newsletter. 0:13:36.440 --> 0:13:38.800 Here's some of the other stories from the region we've 0:13:38.800 --> 0:13:43.480 been following this week. South African President Zero Ramopouza said 0:13:43.640 --> 0:13:47.200 negotiations for a trade deal with the US were ongoing 0:13:47.720 --> 0:13:52.920 and voiced optimism for an agreement. Ramaposa stated that negotiations 0:13:53.000 --> 0:13:56.839 with the US were now quote based on text, which 0:13:56.880 --> 0:14:00.800 he characterized as progress towards getting an agreement nailed down. 0:14:01.520 --> 0:14:07.160 And Namibia repaid it's seven hundred and fifty million dollar eurobond, 0:14:07.360 --> 0:14:11.480 the largest single day debt maturity in the Southwest African 0:14:11.559 --> 0:14:16.920 nation's history. According to the Finance minister, the redemption seeks 0:14:16.960 --> 0:14:21.320 to enhance the country's credit worthiness and positions it favorably 0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:25.640 for potential future engagements in the global capital markets if 0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:31.240 circumstances warrant, and you can find these stories on Bloomberg platforms, 0:14:31.280 --> 0:14:34.520 including the Next Africa Newsletter. Will put a link to 0:14:34.600 --> 0:14:40.160 that in the show notes. This program was produced by 0:14:40.200 --> 0:14:43.760 Adrian Bradley and tiwa Adebayo. Don't forget to follow and 0:14:43.840 --> 0:14:47.560 review this show wherever you usually get your podcasts, But 0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:49.600 for now, I'm Jennifer Zabasadra. 0:14:49.760 --> 0:14:51.200 Thanks as always for listening.