WEBVTT - A Proper Application of Leverage.  Mike Lyons Talks to A&G

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome Mike Liones to the Armstrong and Getty Show.

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<v Speaker 2>Hey Jack, thanks for having me.

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<v Speaker 1>I do want to talk about your piece and real

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<v Speaker 1>clear defense about the twenty thousand dollars drone that should

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<v Speaker 1>wake up the Pentagon, because that sounds really, really interesting.

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<v Speaker 2>But before we get.

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<v Speaker 1>To that, I was just reading at least one piece

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<v Speaker 1>in the Wall Street Journal where they were comfortable declaring

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<v Speaker 1>that we lost this war and certainly that other Iranians

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<v Speaker 1>feel like they want it. Is there a way there

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<v Speaker 1>that at West Point or you know, those of you

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<v Speaker 1>in college classes who'd study war determine a win versus

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<v Speaker 1>a loss?

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<v Speaker 2>And at what point do you determine that?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, if you look at war as an extension of

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<v Speaker 3>foreign policy, you know, the warfare, the operational success that

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<v Speaker 3>we have here, did that give the president the country

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<v Speaker 3>the leverage to negotiate what we're considered to be favorable

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<v Speaker 3>terms for us Right now?

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<v Speaker 2>It is looking like that that's just not the case.

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<v Speaker 3>The operational success, the military success was clear on the ground,

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<v Speaker 3>given what's been to destroy of the Iranian navy, their

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<v Speaker 3>capability to manufacture, we're fighting capability going forward. However, what's

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<v Speaker 3>the political outcome of this. You know, the best comparison

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<v Speaker 3>is Vietnam. Right, We've never really lost the battle on

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<v Speaker 3>the ground in Vietnam. However, we end up losing that

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<v Speaker 3>from a strategic perspective, so that the story is not

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<v Speaker 3>out there yet, it hasn't been told. But you know,

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<v Speaker 3>I think the can's been kicked down the road right now.

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<v Speaker 3>And the question is whether or not the military did

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<v Speaker 3>gave the president the leverage. I think we did give

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<v Speaker 3>the president the leverage you needed to negotiate harder, but

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<v Speaker 3>it doesn't look like that's the outcome.

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<v Speaker 1>So it seems to me most people left right and

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<v Speaker 1>center don't like this deal. But we've had a few

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<v Speaker 1>people who say, and this might be where Trump is,

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<v Speaker 1>you got to live in the real world where we

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<v Speaker 1>are today with a possible worldwide recession if we keep

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<v Speaker 1>the Straight closed, and what it's doing to the price

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<v Speaker 1>of oil and this and that, and what it would

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<v Speaker 1>take for the military to get to our objectives at

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<v Speaker 1>this point? Is this the smart thing to do?

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<v Speaker 3>Now?

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<v Speaker 2>So look them at that. Would it have been possible

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<v Speaker 2>for us to.

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<v Speaker 1>Force open the Straight or horror moones, what would that

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<v Speaker 1>have looked like if we had decided to go that far.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, it would have looked like what it did back

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<v Speaker 3>in the eighties when we had when we were in

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<v Speaker 3>that mission with regard to open up the straight and

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<v Speaker 3>keeping it open. Then it's not that it was impossible.

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<v Speaker 3>Then what was that earnest will that mission was called.

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<v Speaker 3>We had over two hundred and fifty tankers that went

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<v Speaker 3>through that environment with navy escorts, and maybe perhaps we

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<v Speaker 3>don't have those assets there right now. We really don't

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<v Speaker 3>have the destroyers, that we don't have the same level

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<v Speaker 3>of navy that we had, but that would have been possible.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, this is a good example of while you

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<v Speaker 3>can defeat the Iranians militarily, think their navy, destroy their capability,

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<v Speaker 3>take away their nuclear future, the bottom line is they

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<v Speaker 3>still have geography on their side, and that geography is

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<v Speaker 3>the Straits, and with coastal batteries and mines and fast

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<v Speaker 3>moving boats, they live in the crevices and they can

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<v Speaker 3>use asymmetric warfare to the threatn I like that expression

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<v Speaker 3>of it. Yeah, I want to live in the real

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<v Speaker 3>world too, But to all of a sudden, it just

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<v Speaker 3>decide when it's not going to play anymore. After starting

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<v Speaker 3>this seems like it's a little unfinished as well, and

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<v Speaker 3>again just really kicks the can down the road with

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<v Speaker 3>regard to solving this problem.

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<v Speaker 1>How troubled are you by leaving their rocket making capability

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<v Speaker 1>and some of their rockets.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know.

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<v Speaker 1>I remember the big journalistic piece that came out that

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<v Speaker 1>said they still had whatever it was, seventy percent of

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<v Speaker 1>their rocket capability. Are you okay with leaving them with

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<v Speaker 1>that and the threat that they may someday overwhelm the

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<v Speaker 1>iron dome system there in Israel?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I'm not sure it's that high. They have it

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<v Speaker 3>on their mobile tracks. But let's be clear. They're ballistic

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<v Speaker 3>missile capability is offensive. You know, when the President made

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<v Speaker 3>that comment, it's like, oh, it's okay for them to

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<v Speaker 3>have some offensive ballistic missiles.

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<v Speaker 2>Absolutely not those are You're not, you.

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<v Speaker 3>Know, if they ever had patriot missiles or air defense systems,

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<v Speaker 3>which is what the market's going to boom, especially with

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<v Speaker 3>what we see in Europe and Ukraine and Russia right now,

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<v Speaker 3>there's going to be you know, if you're invest in

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<v Speaker 3>air defense stocks because Androil and these companies that make

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<v Speaker 3>those missiles or are going through the roof, they're gonna

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<v Speaker 3>going to be able.

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<v Speaker 2>To manufacture them.

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<v Speaker 3>But but again, the missiles that the reigns have are offensive.

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<v Speaker 3>They're not designed to protect them. They're they're they They're

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<v Speaker 3>not used for deterrence. They're used to terrain terror on

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<v Speaker 3>their enemies, and so I'm really concerned with that. Mike

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<v Speaker 3>POMPEII has been talking about that since even Secretary of

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<v Speaker 3>State in the first Trump administration. This whole thing is

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<v Speaker 3>it's all tied together, the ballistic missiles with the nuclear

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<v Speaker 3>capability because because you have one thing to have a

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<v Speaker 3>new because I think, to deliver it, and those ballistic

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<v Speaker 3>missiles allow them to do both.

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<v Speaker 1>I know some of this stuff is getting into kind

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<v Speaker 1>of philosophical stuff as opposed to just strict military strategy

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<v Speaker 1>stuff that you're an expert with. But like Joe and

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<v Speaker 1>I have been saying for a while, if Iran announced

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<v Speaker 1>they have a nuclear bomb, and they have when, that

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<v Speaker 1>would be one of the biggest days in world history,

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<v Speaker 1>wouldn't it?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah for sure because of their capability to deliver it.

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<v Speaker 3>And you know it's one thing, yeah, exactly, and how

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<v Speaker 3>they could deliver it and what you know, they're not

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<v Speaker 3>putting it on the back of a Toyota pickup truck

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<v Speaker 3>and pushing it across the border. If they're going to

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<v Speaker 3>launch it at Israel is what they would do. They

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<v Speaker 3>would they would do it without recourse. I you know,

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<v Speaker 3>we as I said a few months ago, the Rains

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<v Speaker 3>never thought we would do what we did. They never

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<v Speaker 3>thought we would do epicure. They never thought we would

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<v Speaker 3>do that. Well, that looks like we're not going to

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<v Speaker 3>finish it. And I think that's, you know, to their advantage.

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<v Speaker 3>We've we've become we've reverted back to self deterrence again,

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<v Speaker 3>and I think that's an issue. But sure, the North

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<v Speaker 3>Koreans have a nuclear capability. We watched that happen and

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<v Speaker 3>we all put our hands in our him and say, boy,

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<v Speaker 3>look at that. And many presidents just let that go

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<v Speaker 3>as well. They didn't, They didn't do anything about it,

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<v Speaker 3>trying to at least keeps them in a box. But

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<v Speaker 3>there's no country that's going to keep the Ranians in.

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<v Speaker 2>The box, right.

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<v Speaker 1>And while I really hate that North Korea has a weapon,

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<v Speaker 1>he doesn't every day have you know, his people in

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<v Speaker 1>the street chanting death to you know whatever a little

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<v Speaker 1>country nearby him.

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<v Speaker 2>Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>And the way that the Uranians do their intention and

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<v Speaker 1>their ability coming together would be horrifying. One of the

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<v Speaker 1>way way to get to your drone piece today maybe

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<v Speaker 1>would be to look at, uh where Russian Ukraine are

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<v Speaker 1>right now. I just I'm not following it as closely

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<v Speaker 1>as I used to, and I just keep seeing headlines that, uhh,

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine's on the front foot.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah they are, as you know.

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<v Speaker 3>We also that video was it last week of hitting

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<v Speaker 3>and oil refinedly blowing the top of it. I mean

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<v Speaker 3>that's ten miles outside of Moscow, and you know that

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<v Speaker 3>battle has become much more closer to home there, but

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<v Speaker 3>they're gaining some ground uh in the domebath in the

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<v Speaker 3>region there, which is now virtually destroyed. Anyway, if you'll

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<v Speaker 3>see videos of the drone tethers and the like, I

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<v Speaker 3>mean it and the land mines that have been that

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<v Speaker 3>have been buried there, and they like that. It's it's

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<v Speaker 3>a perrooric victory at this point because the ground is

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<v Speaker 3>virtually untenable. But droning warfare is now the of the game.

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<v Speaker 3>And what my piece is that there to be published

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<v Speaker 3>tomorrow and Record Defense just talks about we got a

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<v Speaker 3>little bit of a wake up call with that Apache

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<v Speaker 3>getting shot down with a drone from from the Iranians

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<v Speaker 3>can still swarm them. They can still take a twenty

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<v Speaker 3>thousand dollars drone and had a thirty million dollar helicopter

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<v Speaker 3>by just swarming at it, just loitering until it finds

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<v Speaker 3>the target. But then the second component to that is

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<v Speaker 3>the fact that it was picked. A drone ends up resting,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, autonomous vehicle ends up rescuing the pilots in

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<v Speaker 3>the in the in the water as well.

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<v Speaker 2>So that we're in a new whole new state of

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<v Speaker 2>warfare right now.

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<v Speaker 3>But we need to get you know, the economics again

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<v Speaker 3>straight with regard to this where irn assists right now

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<v Speaker 3>with their military capabilities like in between what i'll call

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<v Speaker 3>the bubbles, and that's this. You know that there's nothing

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<v Speaker 3>on that Apache that could have seen that drone coming

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<v Speaker 3>because we were too busy trying that patchy was designed

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<v Speaker 3>to take out tanks.

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<v Speaker 2>And in the eastern western Europe.

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<v Speaker 3>So we've got to gain more capability to make sure

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<v Speaker 3>that these autonomous systems don't don't live inside the wire

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<v Speaker 3>and autonomously and asymmetrical takeout our capability.

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<v Speaker 1>So, as you wrote in your piece, the twenty thousand

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<v Speaker 1>drone that should wake up the Pentagon when that Apache

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<v Speaker 1>went down. That's a roughly twenty thousand dollars drone taking

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<v Speaker 1>down a roughly thirty million dollar helicopter. Yeah, obviously you

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<v Speaker 1>can't keep that up very long.

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<v Speaker 3>No, And it was the same argument that was made

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<v Speaker 3>months ago when our Patriot missiles were taking out the

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<v Speaker 3>ballistic missiles coming from Iran's and the same thing with

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<v Speaker 3>Ukraine and Russia. The one hundred thousand dollars ballistic missile

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<v Speaker 3>is taken out by four to five to six million

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<v Speaker 3>dollar Patriot missiles.

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<v Speaker 2>In some cases.

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<v Speaker 3>The Navy Air Defense systems those AC threes, they are

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<v Speaker 3>thirty and forty million dollars rockets, one at a time,

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<v Speaker 3>at one shot. So because they're designed to protect the carrier,

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<v Speaker 3>they're not necessarily designed to take out one one missile

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<v Speaker 3>out of time.

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<v Speaker 2>So again, the economics of this doesn't work.

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<v Speaker 3>We're going to have to be faster, procure better and

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<v Speaker 3>developed systems that are gonna that are gonna take out

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<v Speaker 3>these autonomous threats that are going to do nothing more

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<v Speaker 3>than increase and I'm more concerned.

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<v Speaker 2>About them even here in the United States.

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<v Speaker 3>Look at that situation last week with DFC fight right

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<v Speaker 3>like a drone swarm here. I look at the stadium.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, we have to develop not only things for

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<v Speaker 3>the military. I was at West Point working with a

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<v Speaker 3>bunch of cadads and they're they're developing these projects that

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<v Speaker 3>will help protect their platoons for drones. I look at

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<v Speaker 3>them and says, we need to develop things to protect

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<v Speaker 3>stadiums from drone swarms.

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<v Speaker 2>Because that's that's the next threat. That's what's coming here.

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<v Speaker 1>It's going to happen, whether it's a terrorist attack or

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<v Speaker 1>some you know, militia group on the left or the

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<v Speaker 1>right or whatever is going to pull off some sort

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<v Speaker 1>of drone it that's going to really horrify people. There's

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<v Speaker 1>something psychologically. I've watched a lot of these videos where

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<v Speaker 1>these the Russians are out in the field and they

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<v Speaker 1>hear the drones coming and they start running and the

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<v Speaker 1>drones catch up to them and you hear them. There's

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<v Speaker 1>something psychologically more terrifying about that. Then if it was

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<v Speaker 1>a guide chasing you with a gun.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, you know, because you know it's going to hit.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, it's not going to stop. You know that,

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<v Speaker 2>it's just your time is up.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, it's really, you know, I guess in combat

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<v Speaker 3>the way to go is just you know that single bullet.

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<v Speaker 3>Who you know Paton talks about that about getting killed

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<v Speaker 3>in combat, But that's not the case anymore. You're going

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<v Speaker 3>to see something loiter around and mess with your head

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<v Speaker 3>before it finally decides to take you out.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I'm glad to hear that you and the military

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<v Speaker 1>circles who think can talk about these things are talking

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<v Speaker 1>about it as just like domestic protection also, because that

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<v Speaker 1>is clearly the future.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, due use, I think is what's happening here.

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<v Speaker 3>And you know, I'm working a lot more with innovative

0:10:40.280 --> 0:10:44.679
<v Speaker 3>startup companies now to see not only help protect soldiers

0:10:44.679 --> 0:10:47.360
<v Speaker 3>on the battlefield, but what's that capability going to do

0:10:47.440 --> 0:10:50.560
<v Speaker 3>to protect our stadiums and protect crowds. And I think

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<v Speaker 3>that's the next threat, whether you know we're going to

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<v Speaker 3>live with it or Not's like everything else, it's where

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<v Speaker 3>the future is.

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<v Speaker 2>Before I let you go.

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<v Speaker 1>Is there a mood among you guys who text and

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<v Speaker 1>tweet and talk to each other of a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>of despair for losing a war or or where are

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<v Speaker 1>you on this?

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<v Speaker 2>No? I think it's the same.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't want to call it cognitive distance. I won't

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<v Speaker 3>to go that far as to say that we're not

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<v Speaker 3>real about it, but the military is just concerned that

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<v Speaker 3>we think that we gave the president more better leverage

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<v Speaker 3>than he's probably applied, and maybe one more strike and

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<v Speaker 3>a couple of different things. Look, you know, to say

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<v Speaker 3>we were going to regime change from airpower along was

0:11:27.679 --> 0:11:30.800
<v Speaker 3>never probably the case. But I don't mind keep going

0:11:30.800 --> 0:11:32.720
<v Speaker 3>down a few more layers and we see how strong

0:11:32.760 --> 0:11:35.679
<v Speaker 3>the iergy see their control is over the Iranians and

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<v Speaker 3>over that country in a forty seven years. It's calcified

0:11:38.480 --> 0:11:41.959
<v Speaker 3>at this point. And so but but if the if

0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:44.880
<v Speaker 3>this gets strung along, we just lose our patients. To

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<v Speaker 3>Jadevan says, you know, I've just had enough. I'm going home,

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<v Speaker 3>and you just you know, we're just.

0:11:48.520 --> 0:11:49.360
<v Speaker 2>Going to end it here.

0:11:49.679 --> 0:11:51.920
<v Speaker 3>You know, Trump didn't get its visual sign of victory,

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<v Speaker 3>and I think that's what most concerns me. There's no

0:11:55.040 --> 0:11:56.600
<v Speaker 3>there's no real visual sign.

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<v Speaker 2>In victory, so that I think that that translates into defeat. Maj.

0:12:00.040 --> 0:12:02.040
<v Speaker 1>Mike lines that's how you follow him on Twitter anytime

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<v Speaker 1>and anything big military breaks, I always go there to

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<v Speaker 1>see what he's going to say about it and his

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<v Speaker 1>op ed tomorrow in real clear defense. Mike Lines, thanks

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<v Speaker 1>for your time today, Thanks FIRS for me Man the future.

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<v Speaker 1>This whole drone thing is so fascinating. But like we

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<v Speaker 1>were talking about with that group of numb nuts who

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<v Speaker 1>wanted to attack Trump's UFC fight there in the white

0:12:21.080 --> 0:12:25.280
<v Speaker 1>out lawn, at some point, whether it's ISIS al Qaeda

0:12:25.400 --> 0:12:29.160
<v Speaker 1>or some homegrown terrorist nut job, somebody's gonna pull off

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<v Speaker 1>a drone attack and that's gonna change everything.

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<v Speaker 2>All of a sudden.

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<v Speaker 1>We're gonna spend be spending money all over the place

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<v Speaker 1>protecting things from drones.

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<v Speaker 2>It's inevitable, really armstrong and