WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Sebastien Page & Dean Curnutt

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Single best idea, and today there were uncountable single best

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<v Speaker 2>ideas into a FED Day special thanks to IF Steve

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<v Speaker 2>and England are on from Standard Charter Bank and just

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<v Speaker 2>before him, Michael Kushma of Morgan Stanley is what the

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<v Speaker 2>magic's all about. These are very very experienced, very wise wisdom,

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<v Speaker 2>wise wise people and that was the way the whole

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<v Speaker 2>show was today. It was just great. Sebastian Page showed up.

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<v Speaker 2>He grew up in Quebec, in the land of the

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<v Speaker 2>hockey stick and Srbrooke, Quebec, that is where they make

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<v Speaker 2>all the hockey sticks. It was like the Vatican of

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<v Speaker 2>my childhood, if you will. We talked with him about Canada,

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<v Speaker 2>had some incredible insights about the tensions and the fifty

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<v Speaker 2>first state concept, but mostly we talked to Sebastian Page,

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<v Speaker 2>hero Price about allocation and about where we are right now.

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<v Speaker 3>We're not panicking, Tom. I think market's the economy. I

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<v Speaker 3>think we're going to be okay. We're looking at a

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<v Speaker 3>slow down. The data for the consumer is showing that

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<v Speaker 3>things are slowing down and the markets is selling off.

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<v Speaker 3>But it's not just because of tariff headlines. It's because

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<v Speaker 3>of the growth slowdown, it's because we had extremely high

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<v Speaker 3>valuations going into this. And yes, the word of the

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<v Speaker 3>hour uncertainty. So it's a combination of all these things.

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<v Speaker 3>But I don't think we're getting a recession.

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<v Speaker 2>Sebastian Page. I can't say enough about his book. Got

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<v Speaker 2>a couple of years ago and asked an allocation. Look

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<v Speaker 2>for that on Amazon. Sebastian Page. Page and a wonderful

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<v Speaker 2>more pro book on diversification and allocation mistakes that are made.

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<v Speaker 2>One of our mistakes is to not have on enough

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<v Speaker 2>d current of macro risk advisors are really pro. Note

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<v Speaker 2>a sophisticated PowerPoint from him. Get that from Macro Risk Advisors.

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<v Speaker 2>But lots of talk about Dean Kurrent really on fire

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<v Speaker 2>about gold. I didn't even see until an hour into

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<v Speaker 2>the program today gold out at record highs. I believe

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<v Speaker 2>three zero four seven, that's OMG, are you kidding? But

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<v Speaker 2>Dean Kurr, we talked about gold. But here Dean Kerne

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<v Speaker 2>on the uncertainty.

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<v Speaker 1>It's the sequencing of down a percent, down a percent

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<v Speaker 1>and a half that has led to, you know, a

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<v Speaker 1>pretty good destruction of wealth at the S and P level,

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<v Speaker 1>that of course has lifted the VIX, but it's been

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<v Speaker 1>a controlled demolition, as one client put it, and I

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<v Speaker 1>think that's a I think that's well said. So the

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<v Speaker 1>cross moments, I don't think are flaring in a big way.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not like we had a VIX of ten that

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<v Speaker 1>went to thirty. We had a VIX of fourteen or

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<v Speaker 1>fifteen that climbed its way into the low twenties level.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's, like I said, very controlled. And I think

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<v Speaker 1>the hand off here is okay. The pods for the

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<v Speaker 1>big multi strat hedge funds have had to de risk.

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<v Speaker 1>That's caused a lot of factor volatility, a lot of rotation.

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<v Speaker 1>But the big handoff now is what is the impact

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<v Speaker 1>on the real economy. I took real interest in the

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<v Speaker 1>piece on the Bloomberg terminal yesterday quoting Morgan Stanley's president

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<v Speaker 1>saying deal making has really gotten frozen here, yep, right.

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<v Speaker 1>So it does feel like corporate America has been stymied

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<v Speaker 1>by the start stop of the tariff negotiations.

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<v Speaker 2>Dean Kernant. And this is why we love the conversations

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<v Speaker 2>and why we try to bring a few of them

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<v Speaker 2>to you with single best idea in your busy podcast day.

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<v Speaker 2>That's the single best phrase I've heard for the moment.

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<v Speaker 2>We're in controlled demolition. Dean Kurnet's stealing that from a client.

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<v Speaker 2>We'll steal it from Dean Kernet. I think it's just

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<v Speaker 2>really really brilliant, and your commute across the nation. Thank

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<v Speaker 2>you so much for your morning attention. Had a gentleman.

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<v Speaker 2>He sits in his kitchen and forces his young offspring

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<v Speaker 2>to listen to us in the morning. That is cruel,

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<v Speaker 2>that is unusual. That is punishment, But we thank you.

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<v Speaker 2>And on podcasts, we'll go look at YouTube podcasts for

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<v Speaker 2>single best idea