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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Date Bag you at podcast. Good morning,

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Speaker 2: It's Friday, the first of August. I'm Caroline Hepgitt in London.

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Speaker 3: And I'm Stephen Carroll.

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Speaker 4: Coming up today, Donald Trump announces new tariff rates for

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Speaker 4: every country trading with the US as his deadline for

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Speaker 4: talks passes.

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Speaker 2: Apple reports its fastest growth in three years, but tariffs

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Speaker 2: increase the company's cost of doing business.

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Speaker 4: Plus trading from a theater seat. How an options trader

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Speaker 4: is turning finance into entertainment.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with the roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 4: US President Donald Trump is stepping up his global trade offensive,

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Speaker 4: setting a ten percent minimum global tariff and higher rates

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Speaker 4: for countries which have trade surpluses with the United States.

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Speaker 4: The President signed an executive order to enact many of

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Speaker 4: the tariff rates he first announced in April, then delayed twice.

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Speaker 4: White House spokesperson Caroline Levitt says the pause has led

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Speaker 4: to America's key trading partners getting better rates.

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Speaker 5: We promised that the President would negotiate with countries all

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Speaker 5: around the world to cut tailor made trade deals depending

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Speaker 5: on those countries' challenges.

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Speaker 3: How badly.

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Speaker 5: They've ripped off the United States of America and our

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Speaker 5: manufacturing industry in our work force in the past, and

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Speaker 5: he has done that. Of the our eighteen major trading partners,

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Speaker 5: two thirds of those trading partners have a.

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Speaker 4: Deal Levita, speaking ahead of the midnight deadline, which passed

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Speaker 4: without the fanfare of Trump's April tariff rollout, the changes

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Speaker 4: will come into effect in one week's time. Imports from

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Speaker 4: around forty countries will face a higher fifteen percent rate,

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Speaker 4: and roughly a dozen economies products will be hit with

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Speaker 4: even higher duties. Switzerland is one of the worst affected

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Speaker 4: by the new measures, with the country facing a thirty

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Speaker 4: nine percent levy on its exports to the US. Major

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Speaker 4: industrialized economies, including the European Union, Japan, and South Korea,

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Speaker 4: accepted deals involving fifteen percent duties on their products well.

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Speaker 2: The tariff ROLO also underlined how the US president is

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Speaker 2: using trade to pressure countries politically. Some of the major

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Speaker 2: shifts from April's rates are countries facing Donald Trump's aire.

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Speaker 2: India has been hit with a twenty five percent tariff

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Speaker 2: rate after attax over its membership of the Bricks Group

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Speaker 2: and before the midnight deadline. The US President was asked

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Speaker 2: about his social media post saying that Canada backing statehood

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Speaker 2: for Palestine would make it very hard for them to

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Speaker 2: get a US trade deal.

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Speaker 3: That's your opinion. I didn't like that.

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Speaker 6: Not a deal breaker, but we haven't spoken to Canada today.

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Speaker 3: He's called and we'll we'll see.

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Speaker 2: President Trump later and owa thirty five percent tariff rate

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Speaker 2: for Canadian imports not covered by the USMCA the current

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Speaker 2: trade agreement. Many countries are still hoping to negotiate better

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Speaker 2: deals with the US, with Mexico managing to get a

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Speaker 2: further ninety day extension to trade talks.

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Speaker 4: Boomberg Economics forecast the new trade regime will cut US

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Speaker 4: GDP by one point eight percent and lift core prices

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Speaker 4: by one point one percent over.

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Speaker 3: A period of two to three years.

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Speaker 4: They say the full details of the new levees will

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Speaker 4: increase the average US tariff right to fifteen point two

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Speaker 4: percent when they take effect next week. That's up from

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Speaker 4: thirteen point three percent currently and two point three percent

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Speaker 4: last year. But economists have warned the further possible announcements

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Speaker 4: on new sectoral account secual tariffs, notably for pharmaceuticals, and

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Speaker 4: chips could substantially change their prediction.

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Speaker 2: Traders are bracing for an influx of copper into warehouses

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Speaker 2: for the London Metal Exchange. President Trump's decision not to

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Speaker 2: tariff the main traded form of the metal has sparked

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Speaker 2: a race for LM storage space. It comes after trade

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Speaker 2: has had for months shipped copper to the US and

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Speaker 2: built up stockpiles to capture sharply higher prices. Here is

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg and can remain bostic on how the market was

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Speaker 2: caught off guard by the US tariff shock.

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Speaker 6: The mark had actually tried to call the President's bluff.

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Speaker 6: They actually thought he was going to follow through with

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Speaker 6: most of those tariffs, but he's basically we sended a

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Speaker 6: couple of those and said that they won't apply to

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Speaker 6: finished products. And that is disrupting a big trade that

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Speaker 6: we had in this market, Joe, which was a lot

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Speaker 6: of folks trying to buy a lot of copper ahead

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Speaker 6: of those tariffs. That's what got built up over the

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Speaker 6: last few weeks that now in theory is going to

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Speaker 6: have to be built down because what folks bought in

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Speaker 6: theory is now going to be worth a little bit less.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's remain bostic. Speaking there. On Wednesday, President Trump announced

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Speaker 2: that import tariffs of fifty percent would apply only to

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Speaker 2: process forms of copper, not to the refined metal. The

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Speaker 2: news collapsed New York prices in a matter of minutes.

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Speaker 4: A key gage of US inflation increased in June at

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Speaker 4: one of the fastest paces of the year, while consumer

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Speaker 4: spending barely rose. The core personal consumption Expenditure index rose

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Speaker 4: by zero point three percent from May and two point

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Speaker 4: eight percent on an annual basis. Meanwhile, inflation adjusted consumer

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Speaker 4: spending just edged up last month after declining in May.

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Speaker 4: Leel Brainard's former direct of the National Economic Council, says,

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Speaker 4: the figures are concerning.

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Speaker 7: We've already seen substantial slowing in the second quarter in

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Speaker 7: terms of underlying private domestic final demand. Consumers look like

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Speaker 7: they are feeling a little bit cautious. We can see

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Speaker 7: that even in today's personal consumption expenditures data, which really

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Speaker 7: was very modest growth. So yes, I do believe there's

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Speaker 7: some risk.

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Speaker 4: Leah Bernard, speaking there, The third kept borrowing cast unchained

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Speaker 4: for a fifth straight meeting on Wednesday, though two governors

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Speaker 4: dissented in favor of a quarter point cut.

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Speaker 2: Apple reported its fastest quarterly revenue growth in more than

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Speaker 2: three years, surpassing Wall Street estimates after demand picked up

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Speaker 2: for its iPhones and products in China. The tech giant

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Speaker 2: reported sales up by nine point three percent to ninety

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Speaker 2: four billion dollars in the third quarter, as CEO Tim

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Speaker 2: Cook hailed a quote acceleration of growth around the world.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Mark German says that while US tariffs have increased

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Speaker 2: Apple's business costs, they've also had a positive impact on sales.

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Speaker 8: Revenue growth of over one thousand percent in some stores

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Speaker 8: because people were flooding the stores to buy phones because

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Speaker 8: they thought the prices.

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Speaker 3: Were going to shoot up.

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Speaker 8: There were these completely baseless headlines on social media, seeing

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Speaker 8: the iPhone's going to cost three thousand dollars, the US

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Speaker 8: phone's going to cost one hundred thousand dollars. All these

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Speaker 8: complete nonsense headlines.

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Speaker 3: That helped Apple out a lot.

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Speaker 8: We'll see what this means in the quarters to come,

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Speaker 8: but at least for this June quarter, the proof is

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Speaker 8: in the pudding.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Mark German speaking there as Apple told analysts that

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Speaker 2: it's open to further acquisitions and looks to increase investments

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Speaker 2: in artificial intelligence.

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Speaker 4: Meanwhile, Amazon shares fell by over six percent and after

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Speaker 4: hours trading after it projected weaker than expected operating income

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Speaker 4: and trailed the sales growth of its rivals and cloud services.

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Speaker 4: Operating profits in the period ending in September will be

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Speaker 4: between fifteen and a half and twenty and a half

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Speaker 4: billion dollars, compared with the average estimate of nineteen point

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Speaker 4: four billion dollars. Despite records capital expenditures this quarter, investors

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Speaker 4: are searching for signs that the tech giants huge investments

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Speaker 4: in AI are paying off.

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Ed Ludlow has more.

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Speaker 9: The vast majority of revenue that Amazon books and will

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Speaker 9: book in the current period comes from Amazon dot Com.

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Speaker 9: The AWS, which is the number one player in the

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Speaker 9: cloud market, makes up the vast majority of operating income,

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Speaker 9: and following in quick succession from Microsoft to Meta's Prints

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Speaker 9: just twenty four hours before, where they showed really demonstrable

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Speaker 9: growth based off AI motivated CAPEX investments, Amazon just didn't

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Speaker 9: have the same thing to show.

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Speaker 4: Bloomberg's Ed Ludlow, speaking as Amazon CEO Andy Jasse, said

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Speaker 4: it was very early days in artificial intelligence and efforts

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Speaker 4: to lower the costs of running AI applications would draw

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Speaker 4: more customers over time.

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Speaker 2: Now to the UK, where business leaders are feeling pessimistic

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Speaker 2: about the economy, according to new data in fact that

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Speaker 2: shows that current sentiment has fallen to even lower levels

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Speaker 2: than during the pandemic. Bloomberg's teabat at a Bio has more.

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Speaker 10: During the coronavirus pandemic, the country shut down, experiencing multiple

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Speaker 10: periods of complete lockdown, but still British executives felt more

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Speaker 10: confident about the UK's economic prospects than they do now.

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Speaker 10: A new survey from the Institute of Directors showed their

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Speaker 10: measure of economic confidence plunged to minus seventy two in July.

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Speaker 10: That's worse and the minus sixty nine recorded in April

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Speaker 10: twenty twenty, after the UK first went into COVID lockdown.

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Speaker 10: That survey may concern Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whose Labour

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Speaker 10: government has put economic growth at the heart of its mission.

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Speaker 10: In London, t were at a Bio Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: And those are our top stories for you this morning.

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Speaker 2: Looking at the markets, we see a global stock sell

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Speaker 2: off extend into a sixth day. You've got the MSCI

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Speaker 2: Asia Pacific Index down seven tenths of one percent, big

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Speaker 2: declines for South Korea, the Cospy down by three point

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Speaker 2: six percent this morning. You also have the Swiss frank

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Speaker 2: lower two tenths of one percent against the US dollar

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Speaker 2: around this thirty nine percent tariff rate that's still being

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Speaker 2: questioned by Switzerland itself. And then thinking about stock futures

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Speaker 2: for Europe again, we see a significant decline for European expectations.

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Speaker 2: So we're down by half of one percent. Tenure treasury

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Speaker 2: yields at four thirty eight flat ahead of the all

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Speaker 2: important monthly job data that we'll get out later today.

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Speaker 2: Those are the markets.

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Speaker 4: In a moment, we'll bring you more on the latest

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Speaker 4: trade announcements from Donald Trump. Plus, we have a great

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Speaker 4: story about the live shows selling complex investment strategies to

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Speaker 4: retail traders. No story that we've been reading this morning

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Speaker 4: about venture capitalists and therefore into podcasts, which has become

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Speaker 4: sort of its own media industry.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, has become something of a mini empire. Actually, Blimbergs

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Speaker 2: and vander May has been writing about this. A media

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Speaker 2: ecosystem that serves the tech world. It's podcasts, it's also newsletters,

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Speaker 2: streaming shows, so twenty VC Sorcery tb PN, the Dwarkish podcast.

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Speaker 2: They kind of sprang up during the pandemic, of course.

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Speaker 2: But now you know some of those podcasts apparently according

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Speaker 2: to I haven't listened to all of them, but and

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Speaker 2: clearly has says that some of them are genuinely illuminating,

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Speaker 2: others are pretty boring and sycophantic. But this has actually

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Speaker 2: become a real source of information for the tech sector.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I mean, look, it's an ecosystem that is developing in

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Speaker 4: some places but has attracted particularly large audiences in the

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Speaker 4: tech sector as well. They're very long as well. I

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Speaker 4: mean the TTM is three hours a day, wow done live.

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Speaker 4: The development of this, of course is interesting because there

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Speaker 4: is does appear to be the philosophy that a tech

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Speaker 4: gets more powerful the insider gasp. As what's attracting people

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Speaker 4: to these industries as well. I mean, obviously, you know

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Speaker 4: the number of my friends that love to joke that

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Speaker 4: I'm just another man with a podcast sort of sort

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Speaker 4: of plays into the trope that this is a lot

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Speaker 4: of very male dominated conversations as well in this space too.

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Speaker 4: But it's a very interesting deep dive into I suppose

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Speaker 4: how this is evolving and undattracting audience.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it absolutely is attracting audiences. But of course it

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Speaker 2: doesn't and and points this out too, it doesn't have

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Speaker 2: kind of in depth reporting. These are chats and conversations,

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Speaker 2: so as you say, it's kind of inside a gossip.

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Speaker 2: But yes, they do seem to be really taking off

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Speaker 2: people who are investing in them too. Within the tech world.

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Speaker 2: They've sort of become their own tech businesses. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: quite interesting.

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Speaker 4: You can read moreph Man vander Maray on that. We'll

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Speaker 4: put the link to the article in our podcast show notes.

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Speaker 4: Let's bring you more though on the trade news this morning,

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump announcing his reciprocal tariff rates which start at

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Speaker 4: ten percent, but of some unpleasant surprises for the likes

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Speaker 4: of Switzerland and Canada. Our trades are brand and Murray

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Speaker 4: is with us for more so, Brandon. It is the

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Speaker 4: first of August, the date that Donald Trump had promised

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Speaker 4: us was the end of trade talks, and these announcements

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Speaker 4: coinciding with that ten percent baseline. More for some what

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Speaker 4: are the big changes in this announcement?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so this is.

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Speaker 11: Really the beginning of the end of the global trading system,

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Speaker 11: as we've known it for the past couple of decades.

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Speaker 11: The President Trade Representative Jamison Greer said that this is

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Speaker 11: going to accomplish what the World Trade Organization hasn't been

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Speaker 11: able to accomplish for thirty years, and that is to

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Speaker 11: expand access to markets for US exporters, to increased tariffs,

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Speaker 11: to defend critical American industries, and to create manufacturing jobs

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Speaker 11: through investments that these countries, some of them already have

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Speaker 11: made in American businesses. So what we're there's a lot

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Speaker 11: of moving pieces here. There are some negotiations that are

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Speaker 11: still going to play out. You mentioned Switzerland. Switzerland thought

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Speaker 11: it had a deal on the President's table UH and

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Speaker 11: and and they obviously didn't get that over the over

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Speaker 11: the line by today. So they're gonna they're gonna they're

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Speaker 11: gonna face this, this thirty nine percent tariff. I they

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Speaker 11: can't figure something out between now and the time they

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Speaker 11: take effect on August seventh, So UH and Taiwan, I

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Speaker 11: believe also thought it had a deal and and and

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Speaker 11: wasn't able to and it's and it's getting handed its

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Speaker 11: tariff rate UH in this directive from the President as well.

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Speaker 11: So there there are lots of talks This isn't the

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Speaker 11: end of this, This is sort of the beginning in

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Speaker 11: many ways. There are lots of talks that still need

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Speaker 11: to play out. Even for those countries that think they

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Speaker 11: they signed a deal, there are details still to be

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Speaker 11: worked out. Uh, And this is gonna be a tumultuous

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Speaker 11: time for the global economy. Can you imagine being uh,

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Speaker 11: you know, in the back office of a of a

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Speaker 11: major importer right now trying to figure out the paperwork

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Speaker 11: for all this. It's gonna it's gonna cause a lot

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Speaker 11: of a lot of headaches and a lot of extra costs.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm still quite a lot of this belief. Is

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Speaker 2: this the US abandoning kind of open trade for good

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Speaker 2: or not? And there are still lots of details that

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Speaker 2: we don't know, like the rate for China isn't on

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Speaker 2: the list, and there are also the sectoral tariffs. What

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Speaker 2: do you think is the most important thing to watch

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Speaker 2: out for next in terms of detail as we try

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Speaker 2: to absorb all of this.

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Speaker 11: Well, definitely, the China truce that expires on August twelfth

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Speaker 11: is something that is hanging out there. Will that be extended?

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Speaker 11: The President was supposed to be briefed by his Treasury

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Speaker 11: Secretary and Trade representative this week. We don't think that

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Speaker 11: that briefing has taken place. President was supposed to make

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Speaker 11: a decision on whether to extend that and all indications

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Speaker 11: are that he will, but he hasn't yet. So it's

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Speaker 11: just another uncertainty hanging over the global economy. And of course,

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Speaker 11: you know US and China are huge trading partners and

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Speaker 11: there's a lot of there's a lot of state for

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Speaker 11: that to remain a stable situation late back to where

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Speaker 11: they were just a couple of months ago with one

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Speaker 11: hundred and forty five US tariffs on Chinese imports. So

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Speaker 11: the other big thing to look out for here is

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Speaker 11: whether countries will retaliate in any sort of way, whether

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Speaker 11: directly or indirectly. It's it's it's it's quite interesting that

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Speaker 11: these tariffs are being handed down and countries don't hit

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Speaker 11: back in any way. But there are other ways to

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Speaker 11: do it other than just direct directly put tit for

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Speaker 11: tat tariffs on the US. There they can try to

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Speaker 11: diversify their own trading it flows to outside the US

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Speaker 11: market if that's possible, And it's it's we're in for

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Speaker 11: some interesting times here for in the global trading system.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we certainly are Brendon and just looking at the

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Speaker 4: latest reactions from the Swiss government saying the thirty nine

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Speaker 4: percent tariffs differ significantly from a draft and they're still

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Speaker 4: seeking a negotiated solution with the US on trade. Taiwan

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Speaker 4: meanwhile calling the twenty percent tariff that they've been handled

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Speaker 4: temporary and saying they're striving for a more reasonable rate

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Speaker 4: in the future as well, So perhaps some more space

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Speaker 4: for talks before those new tariffs come into for us

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Speaker 4: in a week's time. For now, our trades are Brandan Murray,

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Speaker 4: thank you.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's finance as entertainment. Maybe that's a theme of

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Speaker 2: the podcast this morning. Sixty hate year old Tom Sozanov,

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Speaker 2: the founder of Think or Swim and Tasty Trade, packed

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Speaker 2: out a London theater recently to teach complex trading strategies

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Speaker 2: that were once reserved for Wall Street pros to retail investors.

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Speaker 2: Joining us now to discuss This is Bloomberg's Markets reporter

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Speaker 2: Justina Lee. Justina, good morning, So financial entertainment. What is

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Speaker 2: Soznov's teaching? I mean you were at the theater show.

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Speaker 2: What was it like?

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Speaker 1: It's a bit like a stand up comedy, but maybe

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Speaker 1: with fewer jokes and a lot more you know, discussion

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Speaker 1: about all these complicated option strategies. And I think what's

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Speaker 1: kind of really interesting about this company that he co

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Speaker 1: found did, Tasty Trade, which is retail brokerage and also

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Speaker 1: a financial entertainment network, is that they're not just about

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Speaker 1: kind of buying options.

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Speaker 3: I think we're used to that.

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Speaker 1: They're mostly about selling options, and they're about these complicated strategies,

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Speaker 1: you know, short iron corn door, short strangles, which are

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Speaker 1: usually like selling options and maybe buying some at the

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Speaker 1: same time, selling two options at the same time, and

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Speaker 1: they're all about how kind of if you do this steadily,

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Speaker 1: you'll kind of make kind of these premiums from selling options,

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Speaker 1: a bit like if you're selling insurance, and then you

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Speaker 1: kind of.

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Speaker 3: Get rich this way.

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Speaker 1: And so it's kind of interesting because it's a combination

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Speaker 1: of entertainment and also really dry technical language. And that

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Speaker 1: is exactly how Tomsaustuff kind of envisioned his company to be.

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Speaker 4: Why is he attracting such audiences at this moment?

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Speaker 3: Why are this Why is this kind of trading I

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Speaker 3: suppose becoming so popular now?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he kind of really captures this moment

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Speaker 1: in the retail options trading boom, I mean US options

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Speaker 1: trading volume. And it's also interesting because this was in London,

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Speaker 1: but everyone was trading US options there. I mean, the

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Speaker 1: volumes have really reached a record and I think it's

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Speaker 1: interesting because we used to think, okay, people were trading

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Speaker 1: options during COVID when they were bored, but actually the

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Speaker 1: volume has picked up even further since COVID, and it's

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Speaker 1: just hitting new records every year, and I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: they're not even among the biggest, biggest options trading brokerage.

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Speaker 1: And even then, he attracted this big crowd in London

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Speaker 1: and a lot of people there actually flew in here

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Speaker 1: just to see him, and it kind of when I

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Speaker 1: spoke to them, I think a lot of them like

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Speaker 1: that he seems to be teaching something that's a little

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Speaker 1: bit cleverer than what I don't know, they might learn

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Speaker 1: from Robinhood or something. And there's definitely kind of aspirations

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Speaker 1: for kind of being to do this full time and

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Speaker 1: kind of quit their jobs and kind of just just

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Speaker 1: make a living from trading options.

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Speaker 2: Okay, but what are the risks And some of the

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Speaker 2: criticism around this. I mean, there is a difference between

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Speaker 2: I suppose, you know, Wall Streets and big banks and

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Speaker 2: trading their versus trying to do it in your basement.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure.

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Speaker 1: And I think you know, we have all heard that

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Speaker 1: as a retail investor, you know, including us, we should

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Speaker 1: all just hold a buy and hold index funds. And

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Speaker 1: that is something that Tom Saw's not definitely does not

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Speaker 1: agree with. He thinks, actually his company recently had an

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Speaker 1: article that called this anti intellectual. And I think even

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Speaker 1: you know, a lot of Wall Street pros would say

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Speaker 1: selling options is something that is quite dangerous. It's a

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Speaker 1: strategy that has kind of burned a lot of pros.

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Speaker 1: And to kind of teach this these complicated tactics to

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Speaker 1: retail pros, sorry to retail investors, I think a lot

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Speaker 1: of people would say, it's not really just about them.

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Speaker 1: It's kind of about generating commissions for the brokerage, because

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Speaker 1: the more complicated these trades are kind of the more

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Speaker 1: activity you get. And of course for each trade, you know,

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Speaker 1: tasty trade does earn a commission, and then they also

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Speaker 1: sell the flows to market makers. And so I think

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Speaker 1: a lot of cynics would say that this is really

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Speaker 1: just a commission maximization strategy.

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