Speaker 1: Check it down, man, Now down man. It's the Beating
Speaker 1: the Book podcast. Peel Alexander has promised this is a
Speaker 1: show that actually has content from a couple of weeks back,
Speaker 1: but it could be applicable, that is, if the MLB
Speaker 1: season never resumes. It's fantasy talk. I know a lot
Speaker 1: of folks are having their fantasy draft this week despite
Speaker 1: the impact of coronavirus. This is false four from fan Graphs.
Speaker 1: We do it each and every year. His list of
Speaker 1: overvalued starting pitchers, undervalued starting pitchers, and some of his
Speaker 1: thoughts on some betting props as well, including Garrett Cole
Speaker 1: related ones, New York Yankees, a L and n L
Speaker 1: Rookie of the Year. Even have a tribute question in
Speaker 1: there as well. Paul Spore Fantasy Baseball, primarily on today's
Speaker 1: Beating the Book Podcast. Enjoy Welcome back to a numbers
Speaker 1: game with Gil Alexander. Oh we get tweets at bet
Speaker 1: in the book. Always appreciate the feedback when everything that
Speaker 1: PEPSI guy, I'd love to sit down and listen to
Speaker 1: what the value is around a wind total in MLB.
Speaker 1: I know it will never be a topic over the
Speaker 1: radio because it'll lose most but if I could ever
Speaker 1: sit down with Gil or Roxy, I would most certainly
Speaker 1: bring this up. Let's talk numbers, hashtag always taking notes.
Speaker 1: Thank you. First of all, let me just say I
Speaker 1: don't deserve to be coupled with Roxy. Anybody should be
Speaker 1: able to hang out with Roxy. That is, that would
Speaker 1: be fabulous. What that refers to is we did on
Speaker 1: Twitter yesterday for anybody who was interested. We won't do
Speaker 1: it on the radio because it's too wonky, but anybody
Speaker 1: interested in discussion about the value of a win in
Speaker 1: a baseball season win total. Roxy answered it his way.
Speaker 1: I answered in mine um with a shout to Joe
Speaker 1: Peta helping out. So interesting discussion, but that's online there,
Speaker 1: so thank you for that. That pepsi guy, Uncle scratch off.
Speaker 1: How did Warren lose Massachusetts in burning not get California? Big?
Speaker 1: The thing about Warren mass chooses Let me just say this,
Speaker 1: I would for all my by and bets that one.
Speaker 1: I would not have thought for one second to have
Speaker 1: bet Biden Massachusetts. There was no he was like the
Speaker 1: third shot. He was like plus twelve hundred or something
Speaker 1: like that. He had no, he didn't even go to
Speaker 1: the state. There were so many states that he conceded
Speaker 1: that he ended up winning. It's just unbelievable. And by
Speaker 1: the way, Michael Bloomberg, as you said, suspending his candidacy
Speaker 1: and endorsing Joe Biden, Tulsi Gabber not suspending her candidacy yet.
Speaker 1: I just I just want to throw that out there. Uh,
Speaker 1: this is Lido seventy tried that predicted yesterday for Super
Speaker 1: Tuesday after you had them on pretty cool site. Was entertaining,
Speaker 1: made a few bucks, was like day trading. Basically, thanks
Speaker 1: for opening my eyes to a new market to bet on.
Speaker 1: You're the best. Love the jokie, but point thank you
Speaker 1: leto seventy five and good shout out to uh predicted
Speaker 1: right there. Uh, this is Chris ge Hey, Gil, thanks
Speaker 1: for steering me towards the political market. I had no
Speaker 1: idea it existed. Made a killing on Biden last night.
Speaker 1: Do you know how long the typical book takes degrade
Speaker 1: these political bets. That's a great question. Um, it does not. Obviously,
Speaker 1: as you're noticing it, it is not an immediate thing.
Speaker 1: They want to be super sure that these things get
Speaker 1: rat fied. And as you know, you know, voting inconsistencies
Speaker 1: and all kinds of voting. Shenanigan's happened, so they take
Speaker 1: their time. Um but I would imagine with some of
Speaker 1: the ones that were obvious yesterday, you should get those graded.
Speaker 1: Not so sure about say A, Texas, which might take
Speaker 1: a little while longer because there were some issues there yesterday.
Speaker 1: UM So, lots of tweets, We appreciate it all. Here's
Speaker 1: Tim Thompson and all Ron Burgundy my way through this one.
Speaker 1: If you go back to the off season leading up
Speaker 1: to the midseason San Francisco, Jimmy G. Trade Lynch asked
Speaker 1: if Brady was available. Yes, he did, so the interest
Speaker 1: has been there also. TB twelve went to Sara High
Speaker 1: School and San Mateo. Thank you also Alma mater of
Speaker 1: Barry Bonds. Yes, not Menlo, San Mateo. Appreciate that both
Speaker 1: though Silicon Valley Way for those familiar with the with
Speaker 1: the South Bay over there in the Bay Area. Now
Speaker 1: a discussion that I've had for I don't know, maybe
Speaker 1: nine ten years in a row with this gentleman. He's
Speaker 1: the best in the business when it comes to so
Speaker 1: many things baseball, but especially starting pitchers, where he had
Speaker 1: a starting Pitcher guide when he was oh fort in
Speaker 1: fifteen years old. I believe it was ladies and gentlemen
Speaker 1: from fan graphs. It's Paul Sport. Good morning to you,
Speaker 1: PAULI morning gal. How's it going. Weren't you like fourteen
Speaker 1: or fifteen when you first started that there? Oh, I
Speaker 1: was not not that young. I might have looked that young.
Speaker 1: It's so hard for me to think of you as
Speaker 1: thirty eight man because it's been so all right, So Paul,
Speaker 1: this is what we do, and this is for this
Speaker 1: works out great for both a betting audience and for
Speaker 1: of course, the main thing is for a fantasy audience.
Speaker 1: But there's so many betting applications because it's starting pitchers.
Speaker 1: So we just do overvalued and undervalued. You have him
Speaker 1: on a tier system first of all. But then we
Speaker 1: should stress. I guess the first thing we should stress
Speaker 1: here is you correct me if I'm wrong that even
Speaker 1: though you might think someone is overrated, that doesn't mean
Speaker 1: you think they suck. And even though you think someone
Speaker 1: is underrated doesn't and you think that the greatest thing
Speaker 1: that's ever existed just based on draft position, right? Average
Speaker 1: draft position? All about all about price? Right? I mean
Speaker 1: it's the same thing in the handicapping market. You don't
Speaker 1: have like a team, but there's a certain price where
Speaker 1: you're gonna get in on that team. Uh. It's the
Speaker 1: same thing with with fantasy baseball players. You never want
Speaker 1: to write a guy off. I mean, I guess I
Speaker 1: shouldn't say never. There's injury factors, but you know, a healthy,
Speaker 1: capable player. They all have a certain price. So yeah,
Speaker 1: it all depends on what they're going for. Okay, so
Speaker 1: we're gonna have two things going on at the same time.
Speaker 1: I just don't want to confuse people who happen to
Speaker 1: be watching us at Visa dot Com in the Visa nap.
Speaker 1: But on the screen, we'll have Paul's group the tears
Speaker 1: that he has, and there's about twelve groups of starting
Speaker 1: pitchers he rates. He rates all of these in Major
Speaker 1: League Baseball, so it's Tier one, are the greatest pitchers
Speaker 1: in baseball? Tier two, next, Tier three, so on and
Speaker 1: so forth, based on his numbers. But the ones that
Speaker 1: he'll mention here today are the ones where he really
Speaker 1: feels are over and undervalued. Do you want to start
Speaker 1: with the Uh, let's start with undervalued, Paul. Let's go
Speaker 1: there Okay, let's let's do that. Um and so we'll
Speaker 1: start at the top with my my high guy. I've
Speaker 1: got Frankie Mantas all the way up at twenties and
Speaker 1: he's going around thirty starter off the board. In the
Speaker 1: market on using is the NFBC, the National Fantasy Baseball Championship,
Speaker 1: a very well regarded market that's put in a lot
Speaker 1: of drafts. So there's a lot of data out there,
Speaker 1: and they're all money leagues. There's something on the line.
Speaker 1: Mock draft data is valuable, but there's there's definitely that
Speaker 1: extra bit when when it's leagues with with an entry
Speaker 1: fee there, because you know people are have skin in
Speaker 1: the game, if you will, as my as my my
Speaker 1: buddy christ List likes to say. So that's what we're
Speaker 1: going off of here when comparing to my rankings. So
Speaker 1: an eight spot difference doesn't seem to be that much,
Speaker 1: but when you get at the high end of the level,
Speaker 1: that can be a big deal. You know that we're
Speaker 1: starting to talk about I really value Frankie Montas as
Speaker 1: uh premium picture. If it's top twenty, we're talking premium.
Speaker 1: I really believe in what he did last year. I
Speaker 1: know he had the p D suspension. P D S
Speaker 1: last I checked, don't give you a devastating splitter. They
Speaker 1: just don't do that. Yeah, not found the PV that
Speaker 1: gives you that. They can't help with velocity, But he's
Speaker 1: always had velocity, so I don't even believe that that
Speaker 1: was part of it. Um. And the simple fact is,
Speaker 1: I don't really care about p d s. I mean,
Speaker 1: if they get caught service suspense. I'm not saying they
Speaker 1: shouldn't get in trouble if they break the rules, but
Speaker 1: I don't care about them going forward. In fact, a
Speaker 1: lot of guys kind of have a lasting effect with them.
Speaker 1: A lot of guys have returned and kind of carried
Speaker 1: on whatever effects they might have gotten. But he was
Speaker 1: excellent in those innings, including a nice six innings start
Speaker 1: to finish the season. He did return for one last start,
Speaker 1: Montauze said to end the season with Oakland, but he
Speaker 1: couldn't play in the playoffs because of the suspension. But
Speaker 1: now he has three reliable pitches with fastball, slider, splitter,
Speaker 1: and premium velocity, a lot of swing and miss um.
Speaker 1: He's really evolved nicely over the last five years. Where
Speaker 1: he came out of the fireballer who could strike anybody
Speaker 1: out but couldn't do anything else. Then he really committed
Speaker 1: to controlling the ball and and and cutting down his walks,
Speaker 1: but everything else kind of suffered a strikeout rate really
Speaker 1: plumbing in. He became a bit too hittable. It was
Speaker 1: really showing the difference between command and control. This past year,
Speaker 1: he had the command and control and everything was really working.
Speaker 1: The only thing that stunted the breakout was the suspension.
Speaker 1: I think this year we get a full plus inning
Speaker 1: breakout on a Frankie Montas. Yeah, and two point six
Speaker 1: three e R a very nicely sort of confirmed if
Speaker 1: you will buy a three point zero zero field three
Speaker 1: point zero zero fielding independent three point four seven x
Speaker 1: vip uhs K rate was twenty six point one percent.
Speaker 1: Is walk rate was low five percent. Swinging strike rate
Speaker 1: also pretty nice eleven point five percent. Not elite, but
Speaker 1: not bad. I guess there's a lot. There's a lot
Speaker 1: to like, basically absolutely, and there's a one point seven
Speaker 1: groundball to fly ball ratio for freaking Montas as well
Speaker 1: with an elite defense behind him, especially after the emergence
Speaker 1: of Marcus Simon over the last couple of years to
Speaker 1: go with Matt Chapman are giveably the best defender in baseball.
Speaker 1: Only Nolan Toronado really has a case that maybe Alton Simmons.
Speaker 1: I don't want to, I don't want leave him out,
Speaker 1: but you're talking one of the top uh three four
Speaker 1: as far as Chapman goes, and Matt Olsen very underrated
Speaker 1: over at at first base, second base. We don't know
Speaker 1: exactly who's gonna be there yet with camp Barretto Mateo
Speaker 1: kind of playing that out. But even if they're mediocre
Speaker 1: to bad, you still have three of the four as
Speaker 1: premium guys, so they're gonna turn a lout of those
Speaker 1: groundballs into shirt fire out. I really like frankymon Toss.
Speaker 1: Very interested to see how the betting market is going
Speaker 1: to price Montess out of a gate here when the
Speaker 1: season starts. All right, number two undervalued. You mixed up
Speaker 1: Max Freed of the Atlanta Braves. Now, this is a
Speaker 1: guy who was a big time prospect. Kind of started
Speaker 1: to fade off of that prospect, of that prospect sheen
Speaker 1: a little bit. It really wasn't working out the way
Speaker 1: folks had planned. You know, he did some decent things,
Speaker 1: mostly out of the bullpen was his tiny sample though,
Speaker 1: and it's just like, what do we really got here?
Speaker 1: But it was only of going into last year, so
Speaker 1: no one should have fully written him off. I will admit, though,
Speaker 1: that I had kind of moved on. I was like, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, I I liked him as a prospect, I'm
Speaker 1: kind of moving on. I bought back in when he
Speaker 1: added the slider. That's what really did it for me,
Speaker 1: because to that point he was basically a two pitch guy.
Speaker 1: He barely even had to show me change up. It
Speaker 1: was fastball, curveball, so it's like two pitch guy who's
Speaker 1: really kind of struggled to limit walks. He did show
Speaker 1: a little strikeout upside and eighteen, but last year a
Speaker 1: lot of stuff changed, and it was because of that
Speaker 1: slider being incorporated. It made the other pitches better. And
Speaker 1: I'm really excited to see what he can do this year.
Speaker 1: The one thing he needs to do, Max Fred, is
Speaker 1: start limiting the hit He's carried a lot of high babbits,
Speaker 1: and at this point throughout his career, I'm starting to
Speaker 1: believe that he plays a role into that pictures and
Speaker 1: hitters can have effect on their own babbitt that doesn't
Speaker 1: automatically go to three hundred for everybody. So I think
Speaker 1: there's a little bit of something there where he's a
Speaker 1: little bit too hittable at times. I'm hoping that, you know,
Speaker 1: messing with the slider of this past year, but now
Speaker 1: incorporating it in fully as a as a third weapon
Speaker 1: helps him cut into it hit rate and does bring
Speaker 1: down the babbit. He doesn't walk guys had a seven
Speaker 1: percent rate last year, amplified the strikeout rate uh over
Speaker 1: a full season he had the year before, but that
Speaker 1: was over thirty three innings, So I don't put as
Speaker 1: much stock into that. When I see a rate for
Speaker 1: a full year auto Max Freed, that impresses me. So
Speaker 1: I think there could be a big, big step here.
Speaker 1: I'm talking something in the in the low threes with
Speaker 1: a one twenty something, with maybe even lower depending on
Speaker 1: how much he can cut into that hit rate. But
Speaker 1: two pitches now year old lefty throws pretty hard. Lots
Speaker 1: to like there with Max Freed, and I've got him, uh,
Speaker 1: I've got him right twenty five with thirty seven starter
Speaker 1: off the board in the market right now. I love
Speaker 1: the thinking on Freed too, because what you said is
Speaker 1: very interesting. You know, the babbit was three thirty six
Speaker 1: last year, but it's not like he hasn't had the
Speaker 1: high unfortunate babbitts before, or you wonder, at some point
Speaker 1: is it in by the way, same thing with the
Speaker 1: home run the flat ball rate right on Freed twent
Speaker 1: last year, year before. So at some point and we're
Speaker 1: not saying that point has come yet, but it is
Speaker 1: worth looking at with with Freed, where you're like, well,
Speaker 1: I think this stuff should probably come back down to
Speaker 1: earth to his benefit, but I don't know. We we
Speaker 1: shall see, you know, yeah, exactly, And it's something to
Speaker 1: keep an eye on. But it's where the growth can
Speaker 1: come from because those are some factors that are generally
Speaker 1: put into the the variability or luck bucket. I don't
Speaker 1: like to use the luck too much on that. Sometimes
Speaker 1: I gets thrown around a little bit more often than
Speaker 1: it should, like, oh, he's been unlucky, not necessarily, we
Speaker 1: don't know that yet. Maybe it is on him and
Speaker 1: then this pick ends up becoming a little bit of
Speaker 1: a bust, or he's figuring some things out. He's still
Speaker 1: just twenty six going into this year. He only has
Speaker 1: two major league innings under his belt, so he's still
Speaker 1: kind of learning. This year could be a big jump
Speaker 1: year for him where he cuts both the babbit and
Speaker 1: the homer fly ball and like I said, has a
Speaker 1: big breakout season. So I'm excited about Max Reed for sure,
Speaker 1: all right, montas Freed. Who's next on the Undervalued? Next
Speaker 1: up is Jake Goods, And I'll make this one pretty
Speaker 1: quick because he already broke out last year, and I
Speaker 1: think I'm I'm pretty surprised by the fact that a
Speaker 1: lot of people don't seem to believe it. I've got
Speaker 1: them thirty four, the market has a fifty one, And
Speaker 1: I kind of have an idea of what most people
Speaker 1: are thinking because a few of my colleagues have thrown
Speaker 1: this at me at various times, discussing it with them
Speaker 1: on the podcast until I kind of, uh, you know,
Speaker 1: give them the four one one on it. Basically, the
Speaker 1: idea is that he had an amazing start and then
Speaker 1: kind of faded. D reason he had a one r
Speaker 1: A through his first thirteen starts last year. It's absolutely brilliant,
Speaker 1: got an all star bid all of that. He had
Speaker 1: a four seventies seven the rest of the year, right,
Speaker 1: so oh wow, you know, I got a great start
Speaker 1: and then faded. That's very misleading though, because they're grouping
Speaker 1: all those starts together when really it was only a
Speaker 1: seven start run where he had a seven r A
Speaker 1: and even that was really three awful starts, three mediocre ones,
Speaker 1: and even one good one at Cleveland in in that
Speaker 1: mix there including a nine earned run outing against the
Speaker 1: Yankees of all teams. Now, I'm not saying none of
Speaker 1: that doesn't count. It all counts, but it's a seven
Speaker 1: start can find run as opposed to his final seven
Speaker 1: team start. If you then take the ten after the
Speaker 1: nine earned at the yank home against the Yankees, he
Speaker 1: had a two nine, so he was great fort bad
Speaker 1: for seven, great for ten. Um. They know how to
Speaker 1: use this guy too. They realized in Minnesota this guy
Speaker 1: does not need to go the third time through the order.
Speaker 1: It's just not something that he can do more often
Speaker 1: than not. He's a five and dive maybe six innings
Speaker 1: on on some of his good days. But just limit
Speaker 1: him and you can maximize him. Less is more, as
Speaker 1: the old cliche goes, and that's definitely the case with
Speaker 1: Eco to Rizzy, and I think he's gonna put up
Speaker 1: a year very similar to what he did in nineteen.
Speaker 1: So I'm very much buying back in on this while
Speaker 1: others are expecting a big regression that I just don't see.
Speaker 1: Game logs are so important with starting pitchers because you're
Speaker 1: so right a lot of these guys. Yeah, it's just
Speaker 1: if you look at the game log, you're like, oh, well,
Speaker 1: that doesn't you know, it just looks like he had
Speaker 1: just a couple of implosions or a few in in
Speaker 1: this case, three really big ones for to Rezy. Um.
Speaker 1: And we've seen examples of that, you and I and
Speaker 1: everybody's following baseball and fan grass for years and years,
Speaker 1: where guys are generally good, but then there's the you know,
Speaker 1: the implosion that just alters all the numbers. So again,
Speaker 1: by the way, these are the undervalued pictures. We had
Speaker 1: it wrong on the screen Divisa dot Com. These are
Speaker 1: the undervalued guys. Frankie Motas, Max Freed, jac to Rezy
Speaker 1: give me a couple more here. So then we've got
Speaker 1: Joe Musco. This is the guy was big on last year.
Speaker 1: I'm really just not deterred by last year, kind of
Speaker 1: not really coming through. He was still pretty good. He
Speaker 1: added innings, he was still a whip asset. The r
Speaker 1: A was still a little bit high up over four.
Speaker 1: But I still fully believe in Joe Musco and I
Speaker 1: still think there's a big breakout there. So again, I
Speaker 1: don't want to be labor this one as has gone
Speaker 1: longer on on a couple of the others. I just
Speaker 1: really love this guy. He's gonna be twenty seven. I
Speaker 1: still think he's kind of rounding into form and coming
Speaker 1: into his own. I still think there's that that mid
Speaker 1: to low three's e r A season to go with
Speaker 1: the quality whips he's already put up and their strikeout upside.
Speaker 1: With Joe Musgrove too, He's still kind of figuring everything out.
Speaker 1: I'm excited to see a new regime in Pittsburgh too.
Speaker 1: I was never really a big fan of race Seeredge,
Speaker 1: and I think the game kind of passed him by
Speaker 1: a little bit with all the two steamer groundball stuff
Speaker 1: that he was looking at. I think more high fastballs
Speaker 1: and maximizing the arsenal that Joe Musgrove has could yield
Speaker 1: a big strikeout total too. All right, well, must Grove
Speaker 1: in there? Should we call montas freed ODORESI and must
Speaker 1: Grove the main events and then the rest of your
Speaker 1: honorable mentions. Uh yeah, well I do want to I
Speaker 1: do want to hype Aaron Savali real, yea, let's do him. Um.
Speaker 1: They they've been they've been going off with pictures like
Speaker 1: they they've become kind of a picture factory. And what
Speaker 1: I've been saying my tagline for him is that I
Speaker 1: don't think he's quite Shane Bieber, but he's definitely better
Speaker 1: than like the Adam put Coo Josh Tomlin. So he's like,
Speaker 1: you know, he's a couple of cuts above those type
Speaker 1: of guys that they've been developing, but maybe not quite
Speaker 1: to the Beaver level yet. He's got a full arsenal um.
Speaker 1: He missed a lot of bats in the minors too.
Speaker 1: We didn't quite see that at the major legally level
Speaker 1: last year, but I really like what he's able to do.
Speaker 1: Home run suppression has been a big part of his
Speaker 1: game as well. So if if I'm ranking it, montas
Speaker 1: freed on the reason are definitely the main event Savali
Speaker 1: right there, must Grove is a returner, and then two
Speaker 1: quick lottery tickets and I'm not even gonna give much
Speaker 1: on because I don't love them. I just like them
Speaker 1: more than the market. Jeff some Marja and Homewer Bailey.
Speaker 1: I got him at seventy and seventy one. The market haste,
Speaker 1: I think that's just biased toward trust the old vets,
Speaker 1: and they're not even that old. But it's it's just
Speaker 1: that that that fantasy has always been agist, and guys
Speaker 1: that are kind of boring le solid. The market just
Speaker 1: hours on them. They want to take the shiny new toys,
Speaker 1: and to a degree, I get that, but you can't
Speaker 1: have only shiny new toys at the back end of
Speaker 1: your rotation. You have to get some stabilizers. I think
Speaker 1: Bailey is gonna be good in Minnesota. Uh, he was
Speaker 1: really good with Oakland after his first couple of starts,
Speaker 1: and then so Marja returned pretty nicely last year. At
Speaker 1: the very least, you can use them in against all
Speaker 1: all of his home starts because of San Francisco's ballpark.
Speaker 1: So I like those two has lottery tickets late. Yeah,
Speaker 1: home Aer Bailey good with the A's, so Marja a
Speaker 1: bit more of an evil kinevil one from you, But yeah,
Speaker 1: I understand the thinking for sure. So the main events
Speaker 1: there Montas Freed, Odor Reesi, uh, Savali and Musgrove right
Speaker 1: after that, and then the long shots, so Marja and
Speaker 1: Bailey on the underrated starting pitchers. And again from a
Speaker 1: betting standpoint, Uh, this will be fascinating to see how
Speaker 1: those guys are priced. Um, because someone like Montas Freed
Speaker 1: might be a different story. I think he'll be priced accordingly.
Speaker 1: But someone like Montas and Odo Recy and really all
Speaker 1: the other names you gave, I think you probably get
Speaker 1: favorable prices on those in the betting markets. From a
Speaker 1: day to day standpoint, at least early in the season.
Speaker 1: We'll come back with Paulie Will Do the Overvalued Paul Sport,
Speaker 1: who can be followed on Twitter at Sporer And of
Speaker 1: course the podcast is the Sleeper and the Bust podcast,
Speaker 1: best deep dive into baseball you could ever hope to
Speaker 1: listen to. We'll come Back, We'll Do Overvalued with Paul
Speaker 1: Nicks on a numbers game at Visa in the Sports
Speaker 1: Betting Network. Keep it right here for more of a
Speaker 1: numbers Staying with Pie, Alexander, don't forget to sign up
Speaker 1: for a Visa subscription designed to make sure you're ready
Speaker 1: for basketball tournament action. Do you do pools or any
Speaker 1: kind of brackets, any sort of you know. Uh, I
Speaker 1: will call him the general office pools for n C
Speaker 1: Double as absolutely. I I stream on Twitch, Twitch dot
Speaker 1: tv s last four um and we are we'll be
Speaker 1: having We'll be having a March Madness for sure. And
Speaker 1: one of my buddies from when I worked at del
Speaker 1: always runs great pools for stuff, whether it's Super Bowls,
Speaker 1: squares or March Madness pools, and I get in on
Speaker 1: that as well. In this particular case, these days, I
Speaker 1: know literally nothing about the n C Double A so
Speaker 1: and I still am going to do a bracket because
Speaker 1: it's that fun. I mean, I have general ideas and
Speaker 1: I know where to go study and cram a little bit.
Speaker 1: I'm always gonna put a twelve over a five on
Speaker 1: there because there's usually gonna be one that wins. So
Speaker 1: absolutely there, as much as I love baseball, there's still
Speaker 1: a few things that match or top the first weekend
Speaker 1: of the tournament. It's so true, by the way, you
Speaker 1: were two things before they were cool. You were Corey
Speaker 1: Klueber before Corey Kluber was cool, and you were Twitch
Speaker 1: before Twitch was cool as well. Like you're you're ahead
Speaker 1: of the curve on so much. All right, let's race
Speaker 1: through these. These are the overvalued and I am I
Speaker 1: am interested in this first one primarily, what's the first one?
Speaker 1: Jack Flaherty. Okay, So now I just recently released those
Speaker 1: tops pictures that I pointed you to yesterday on February twenty,
Speaker 1: very fresh rankings. He moved up. I actually had a
Speaker 1: decent bit lower, but some attrition and some further offseason study,
Speaker 1: I moved him up a little bit. I was I
Speaker 1: think I was underrating Hisen a little bit, pretending that
Speaker 1: it was just a half season that people were going
Speaker 1: off of from last year and boosting him up. That said,
Speaker 1: I do still think there's some helium from that half season,
Speaker 1: which is it was great, but it's it's not super
Speaker 1: meaningful to me in that it's unsustainable. And I would
Speaker 1: say that if it was Jack Flaherty, if it was
Speaker 1: my favorite picture ever justin Verlander, if it was Max
Speaker 1: Scherzer a point ninety one, e R a in point
Speaker 1: seventy two, WHI, it's just it's the best you can pitch. Ever,
Speaker 1: So it doesn't mean a lot to me. Now I
Speaker 1: don't think he's a four sixty four e r A
Speaker 1: the way he was in the first half, But I
Speaker 1: I just I want to be careful to not overrate that,
Speaker 1: and I think he is being overrated a bit. I
Speaker 1: have him twelve, the market has him six, So that's
Speaker 1: a big jump for me, and I'm just pulling back
Speaker 1: a little bit. I think he's more of his three
Speaker 1: thirty four r A one eleven, which is still very good,
Speaker 1: with a boatload of stry kout. I don't quite see
Speaker 1: six right now, and so I'm just not paying full
Speaker 1: freight on Jack Flaherty. Yeah to forty two babb eight
Speaker 1: three brand rate. You know, you don't usually sustain both
Speaker 1: of those good fortune things as well, so yeah, throw
Speaker 1: those in the mix as well. All right, it was
Speaker 1: number two overvalue. This one was easiest. Trevor Bauer. I
Speaker 1: knew the market would still be very high on right
Speaker 1: handed Robbie Ray with more innings. To be fair, he's
Speaker 1: he's he's a higher volume right handed Robbie Ray. But
Speaker 1: go look at their careers and tell me where the
Speaker 1: lie is, because it's just not there. They both have
Speaker 1: one great season or the sub three e r A
Speaker 1: that was awesome. They get a boatload of strikeouts. They
Speaker 1: walk the world um and and they're madly infuriating, I
Speaker 1: imagine in both handicapping and fantasy. And so until I
Speaker 1: see something else to really buy in on Bauer four,
Speaker 1: I'm not paying the twenty four starter. I'm not giving
Speaker 1: him a top twenty five average draft position. I've got
Speaker 1: him thirty one. I moved him up a little bit
Speaker 1: again due to some attrition and the fact that the
Speaker 1: strikeouts are still valuable. But I'm just not I'm just
Speaker 1: not a big fan of what he does. And a
Speaker 1: lot of my colleagues even have him higher, pushing him
Speaker 1: up near near the market, and so again, I just
Speaker 1: it's been one good season, and it was a great season,
Speaker 1: and he has a lot of talent, but he over tinkers,
Speaker 1: and he did exactly what I worried about last year,
Speaker 1: which was tinker himself out of success. It's so Trueen
Speaker 1: was just as stellar as could be to two point
Speaker 1: two one r a two point four four fielding independent,
Speaker 1: and then he tinkers. He tinkered when he was like
Speaker 1: a young kid in Arizona, like wouldn't take coaching. He
Speaker 1: was just let me tinker this my way, don't anybody
Speaker 1: tell me anything. Um, I like that pick. Actually, that's
Speaker 1: way overdrafted things, seems to me. Alright, number three, you're
Speaker 1: going back to Oakland, I think, yes, Sean Mania And
Speaker 1: this is one of those where it's like, I'm cautious.
Speaker 1: I am sixty one versus fifty three in the market.
Speaker 1: I like him, but I think again, the markup has
Speaker 1: come off of a tiny sample that I don't find
Speaker 1: to be very sustainable at all. Um, he had twenty
Speaker 1: nine and two thirds last year. He spiked the strikeout
Speaker 1: rate big time without his swinging strike rate really going up.
Speaker 1: In concert with that, he had an insane oneaban and
Speaker 1: then even more insane strand rate obviously is not going
Speaker 1: to last. So um. You know, I'm not saying that
Speaker 1: the market is is believing that he's gonna throw a
Speaker 1: one r A or else he'd be like the fifth
Speaker 1: pitcher off the board. But I do think he's been
Speaker 1: a little bit overrated there. He's not a big strikeout guy.
Speaker 1: Health has been a concern throughout his entire career, including
Speaker 1: last year. That's why only pitchy and two thirds. So
Speaker 1: I'm just playing it a bit more cautiously than the
Speaker 1: draft market right now. And as much as I do
Speaker 1: like Mania as a picture, I got to back off
Speaker 1: on him a bit, all right, So flaity Bauer in
Speaker 1: Mania and you're right there. I mean the two full
Speaker 1: seasons of Maniah were you know, fours ree right, like
Speaker 1: average pitcher kind of thing. Um, So I can get
Speaker 1: with that one. So flirty Bauer and Mania topping the overvalued.
Speaker 1: I gotta sneak in one break here, Paul, if you
Speaker 1: would hang out just for one more and we'll get
Speaker 1: the other three overvalue from you, because I know you
Speaker 1: have a bit of a I don't call them longer shots,
Speaker 1: but let's put it this way, they're not in the
Speaker 1: top group of overvalued. Gotta give a few more names.
Speaker 1: We'll come back. We'll get that from PAULI next fantasy
Speaker 1: betting starting pitchers with Paul Sport right here on a
Speaker 1: numbers game at Visa the Sports Betting Network. Welcome back
Speaker 1: to a numbers game with you, Alexander again. Will be
Speaker 1: so fascinating to see how the starting pitchers, both are
Speaker 1: the good and the bad, are priced in the betting market,
Speaker 1: and see if we can't exploit that early in the season.
Speaker 1: Of course, not everything manifests Game one, but we'll be
Speaker 1: interesting to see, all right. So back with Paul Spore.
Speaker 1: We have Jack Flaherty, Trevor Bauer, Seawan Mania as three
Speaker 1: on the overvalued list based on their average draft position.
Speaker 1: How Paul assess them? Give us three more that are
Speaker 1: a little more on the outside. By the way, I
Speaker 1: think the Bauer and Clarity could be really playing up
Speaker 1: Um in the betting market as well. So those those
Speaker 1: are the ones I'd be really eyeing in the betting market.
Speaker 1: Three others to Nelson Lament a guy that I want
Speaker 1: to like. I just can't get where my or my
Speaker 1: colleagues and the market is right now. I've got him
Speaker 1: fifty one, the market has met thirty six, and they're
Speaker 1: falling in love with that strikeout right which is which
Speaker 1: is legit? The strikeouts are legit. But he's a two
Speaker 1: pitch guy who struggles greatly against lefties. Uh walks. The
Speaker 1: yard has a home run issue. I'm just not understanding
Speaker 1: where we're going here with the top thirty six starting
Speaker 1: pitcher pick here. I'm not even his worried about the
Speaker 1: fact that they only threw seventy three innings last year.
Speaker 1: Um and has only has not thrown more than a
Speaker 1: hundred and fourteen as a major league I can I
Speaker 1: can see a world where he throws a hundred and
Speaker 1: seventy five to a hundred Navy this year as seven
Speaker 1: year old. But I just don't think it's gonna be
Speaker 1: with anything better than like a four E R A
Speaker 1: in a one wi a k A. What he's done
Speaker 1: in his career to this point, thus point or thus far,
Speaker 1: I should say, uh so, I'm just not in where
Speaker 1: everybody else is. Fifty one for me, thirty six for
Speaker 1: the Market, with the Nelson lament of the Padres, and
Speaker 1: then two deeper guys that I actually like these guys.
Speaker 1: But I was surprised to find that I'm way off
Speaker 1: on the market. Adrian Houser, somebody that I just got
Speaker 1: done touting on my podcast as I love this guy,
Speaker 1: quote unquote, I said, I guess I don't if I'm
Speaker 1: this far off, though I have him eight three and
Speaker 1: the Market has sixty five. And Brian Kenny when he
Speaker 1: does their top ten lists, he always calls out the
Speaker 1: himself and and the co host. Don't say you love
Speaker 1: a guy if you have them you know, off your
Speaker 1: list or or ninth on your list, you know you
Speaker 1: have to be consistent, so I can't really say I
Speaker 1: love Adrian Houser unless I move him up right now.
Speaker 1: But I do like him. I'm intrigued by what he
Speaker 1: did last year. I think he could do more this year.
Speaker 1: But I'm just way off compared to the market and
Speaker 1: another guy. I don't love him quite as much as Houses,
Speaker 1: but I'm intrigued by the overall town is Josh James.
Speaker 1: I've got a maybe five, The market has the sixty eight.
Speaker 1: There's a spot for him in Houston, for sure, They've
Speaker 1: they've got openings. He's got the raw talent emphasis on
Speaker 1: raw though. That's why I'm not necessarily going to change
Speaker 1: this one as much as I'm gonna be open to
Speaker 1: changing the Houser one, because he is still very raw,
Speaker 1: and I'm worried that he's gonna walk the yard constantly.
Speaker 1: I still worry that he is a reliever in starters
Speaker 1: clothing this year. But um, I would have considered myself
Speaker 1: somebody who likes him, But then to find out that
Speaker 1: I'm almost twenty spots off surprised me for sure. Yeah,
Speaker 1: Lament just getting back to Nelson Lament thirty three point
Speaker 1: six percent k rate, but as you said, he walks
Speaker 1: the yard nine point six percent walk rate last year.
Speaker 1: And as far as Josh James, yes, as a reliever
Speaker 1: primarily one game started, but as a reliever, I mean wow,
Speaker 1: thirty seven point six percent k rate, thirteen point two
Speaker 1: percent walk rate. And uh so he is he is
Speaker 1: slated to start this year for the Astros right now. Yes,
Speaker 1: He've got under Green, Ky mccallers and then or Keti
Speaker 1: Jose r Keaty and Josh James um as the four five,
Speaker 1: especially with Brad Peacock getting hurt. Yeah, we'll see how
Speaker 1: long that lasts. But anyway, that's how he slated to
Speaker 1: start here early in the season. All right, So those
Speaker 1: are the names. And on the again, on the downside
Speaker 1: here Flaherty, Bauermania lamtte Houser and James Paul always appreciated man,
Speaker 1: Thank you so much at sporer s p O r
Speaker 1: e Er on Twitter of course everything written at fan
Speaker 1: Graphs and the Sleeper and the Bust podcast. How often
Speaker 1: do you do that? Now we're gonna be doing that
Speaker 1: three times a week. We might actually have a couple
Speaker 1: of four packs um in the next couple of weeks.
Speaker 1: Since it is Draft season right now, and my co host,
Speaker 1: Justin Mason's off of his day job, so we're gonna
Speaker 1: have some more time. In fact, we're gonna be recording
Speaker 1: shortly after you and I hang up here today. Very nice, Paul,
Speaker 1: I always appreciate it. Thank you so much, man Gil,
Speaker 1: thank you for having me on. Talk to you in
Speaker 1: the future, Spore. We will have him on during the
Speaker 1: baseball season, and uh we have. We've done a lot
Speaker 1: of baseball here before this. It starts. Do you like
Speaker 1: which of those names on the Undervalued to the Overvalued
Speaker 1: resonated with you the most? There, Jeff, it feels like
Speaker 1: everybody loves Frankie Monta. Everybody on this show has come.
Speaker 1: Everybody loves Frankie Mantas and that scares me, of course,
Speaker 1: because we know how the unanimous fun usually goes. That's
Speaker 1: the first And again, it's not like Paul really slighted
Speaker 1: Jack Flaherty. He just said he's not gonna be a
Speaker 1: top five pitcher in baseball and it's still gonna be
Speaker 1: a top fifteen, which is still really darn good. But
Speaker 1: we saw this last year with Flaherty were at least
Speaker 1: in the betting markets, he got really really overvalued on
Speaker 1: that hot streak in the in the second half of
Speaker 1: the season. Grantedy one, I believe the Cardinals won thirteen
Speaker 1: out of his last fifteen, but it was it was
Speaker 1: that was one that stood out as well. Yeah, and
Speaker 1: again that's the first thing I said was, don't take
Speaker 1: this to mean when he says overvalue that he thinks
Speaker 1: they suck. Just overvalued based on their average draft position
Speaker 1: and fantasy But again, for us, better is to be
Speaker 1: very interesting to see Flaherty again with the very fortunate
Speaker 1: babit uh and uh home run the flatball. Right, see
Speaker 1: where that goes with him this year we'll come back.
Speaker 1: Let's talk a little baseball. He is from fan grass,
Speaker 1: ladies and gentlemen, and wherever baseball is sold, it's PAULI Spoor.
Speaker 1: Good morning, Paul, Morning Gale. How's he going. I'm doing well, Paul.
Speaker 1: Did you see the fight at all? Do you have
Speaker 1: any interest in boxing at all? I did? And I
Speaker 1: actually I actually met Wilder last year. Really nice guy. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: MLB the show event, and he smelled really good. I'm
Speaker 1: just gonna say it, he smelled really good. What was it.
Speaker 1: I'm just telling like obvious, Yeah, yeah, it was. It
Speaker 1: was just it was just a pervasive cologne. He felled
Speaker 1: really good. His ear drum was intact. Yes, well that
Speaker 1: I see. That was the thing he had that working
Speaker 1: for him. You know, it was interesting. I don't know
Speaker 1: if you ever watched a boxing match with with girls
Speaker 1: who don't necessarily watch boxing on a full time basis.
Speaker 1: Not to not to generalize, but at least in my case,
Speaker 1: fashion stylist ever song she was watching alongside with me,
Speaker 1: and she points out things, not the cologne, but she
Speaker 1: points out things that perhaps a guy watching wouldn't for all.
Speaker 1: You know, So Fury is sort of knock need right,
Speaker 1: he's the you know this massive by the way, I
Speaker 1: stood next to Fury at the wind It's just a
Speaker 1: massive human being. But he's sort of knocked. His legs
Speaker 1: look awkward, wilder for his Adona's upper body, like his
Speaker 1: legs are toothpicks. These guys ever do legwork. It is
Speaker 1: the funniest thing to look at. But I didn't know
Speaker 1: I used a solid cologny on top of that. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they just skipped leg data too busy shopping for good cologne.
Speaker 1: That's that's what they're doing. All right, Let's talk Baseball, Paul,
Speaker 1: you were here last week. We went through a whole
Speaker 1: bunch of stuff m VPS. We went through I think
Speaker 1: the most interesting prop markets the wild cards that are
Speaker 1: available to Westgate. Let's talk rookies of the year. I
Speaker 1: don't believe these have been out for a long time. Um,
Speaker 1: someone will correct me if I'm wrong about that. But
Speaker 1: let's start in the American League and uh, well, actually
Speaker 1: Casey Mize at four to one, I thought he was
Speaker 1: the short shot. But I'm saying that that's not the case.
Speaker 1: Now how about that? Um, what do you think you're
Speaker 1: Casey mind? Not the reason I bring up Casey Miys
Speaker 1: because I bet Casey mis Jason Weingartner, Buddy, I was like,
Speaker 1: let's all bet Casey Miys two hundred to one last
Speaker 1: year when he came out. Casey might never ended up
Speaker 1: getting called up by your Detroit Tigers. But as you
Speaker 1: look at this market, any names you're no one has
Speaker 1: locked in as you are to these things. Any names
Speaker 1: that leap off the page americanly, well, I gotta be honest,
Speaker 1: I'm really surprised that, uh Louise Robert isn't the short shot.
Speaker 1: That one really blows my mind, because he's got that deal.
Speaker 1: He's got that contract that is going to put him
Speaker 1: on the opening day roster from day one, I mean,
Speaker 1: barring something crazy. So I would think that he would
Speaker 1: be the obvious guy there. So I probably wouldn't bet
Speaker 1: him because of that, just because if I'm going to
Speaker 1: do one of these, I'm gonna go a little bit
Speaker 1: longer on the odds just to try to spike something.
Speaker 1: But yeah, both co Peck at plus three hundred and
Speaker 1: mis at plus four hundred are high than Robert at
Speaker 1: plus seven. So there, Actually it is a little bit
Speaker 1: of equity with uh. With Blue Bob as they call him,
Speaker 1: which is a great nickname for Luis Robert. You'd be
Speaker 1: looking at go ahead and Bob at seven to one
Speaker 1: for those who aren't watching at Visa Live or the
Speaker 1: Visa dot Com and the Visa app seven to one
Speaker 1: on lou Bob for the Chicago White Sox. What else
Speaker 1: are you looking at? Are you looking at both both
Speaker 1: of the A's pictures, Hey Secilzardo at ten to one
Speaker 1: and A J. Puck and Board one. I really really
Speaker 1: like Puck a lot, and the fact that he's that
Speaker 1: much further up than Loizardo. Um, I would probably take
Speaker 1: the shot on him just because his odds. Puck's odds
Speaker 1: are so much better. Uh, you know, neither Listen, they
Speaker 1: came out and said neither is going to have a
Speaker 1: fixed innings limit. That doesn't mean that they're going two
Speaker 1: hundred innings. That just means that they're they that the
Speaker 1: A's are smartly not anchoring themselves to number that they
Speaker 1: can then have no flexibility from. I think this is
Speaker 1: a wise thing to do when you've got these young guys.
Speaker 1: It doesn't make sense to throw out a number because
Speaker 1: then that's the only focus all years. You know, a
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty innings, and then if you do want
Speaker 1: to go above it, uh, you're at risk of being
Speaker 1: blamed for something if they get hurt. You know, stay
Speaker 1: you anchor at one twenty, but they you want to
Speaker 1: send them one forty because they can handle it, they're good.
Speaker 1: But then they get hurt, it's like, well, you shouldn't
Speaker 1: go in twenty innings over this number that you came
Speaker 1: up with, which is just random anyway. So I like
Speaker 1: that they're coming out and they're not necessarily um anchoring
Speaker 1: themselves to a number with the innings limit, so I
Speaker 1: would go I would go with Puck as an interesting
Speaker 1: long shot there, and then uh it was I still
Speaker 1: like Lazarto two, but I would go with Puck with
Speaker 1: with his odds being that much better, and then a
Speaker 1: sneaky one who's odds I wish were a little bit
Speaker 1: better because of the team that he's on is Nate Pearson.
Speaker 1: I really like Nate Pearson of the Blue Jays. He's
Speaker 1: eight team, the one I'm just intrigued by that Blue
Speaker 1: Jay's team, really intrigued by that offense. Of course, that
Speaker 1: young offense that they've got going, but they put some
Speaker 1: interesting pitching together. I don't think Pierson will be up
Speaker 1: before May, maybe even June, but he's really interesting. I
Speaker 1: saw him Theirs on a follow you a couple of
Speaker 1: years ago, throwing a legit one oh three with a
Speaker 1: devastating slider, so he could be he could be pretty good,
Speaker 1: and I could see him making some noise for that too.
Speaker 1: He's at eighteen to one Nate Pierson. But yeah, I
Speaker 1: think Puck would be my go to at at forty one.
Speaker 1: All right, Puck Oakland Athletics. That's Puk for those who
Speaker 1: don't know. You spelled Puck forty one for the A's
Speaker 1: and Pierson eighteen to one for the JS. On that list,
Speaker 1: he's Lazardo also with the A's ten to one, lu
Speaker 1: Bob Louis for Robert seven to one with the White Sox.
Speaker 1: Casey Mize not mentioned their four to one, but Michaelkopick
Speaker 1: from the White Sox three to one is the short shot.
Speaker 1: So Puck at forty one the sexiest of Then, by
Speaker 1: the way, we don't we don't necessarily care in this
Speaker 1: market if they come up in May. That might even
Speaker 1: be a sneaky way of playing it. You're Don Alvarez
Speaker 1: being a example of such a thing. Let's go to
Speaker 1: the nationally talking to Paul Sport. You can follow him
Speaker 1: on Twitter at s p O R E er. These
Speaker 1: available at the Westgate. Nice job from them putting these up.
Speaker 1: National League Rookie of the Year, same sort of exercise
Speaker 1: sent those two. You uh, in advance where you're going
Speaker 1: this way? Gavin looks no surprise here the short shot
Speaker 1: at four to one. Yeah, the obvious shorty there at
Speaker 1: four to one with with good reason, good player, and
Speaker 1: I do like him. But again, if I'm ever getting
Speaker 1: into into something like this with the rookie of the year.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go a little bit longer, try to hit
Speaker 1: something a little bit bigger. Um. I like Mitch Keller
Speaker 1: at twelve to one. He's interesting. You know if you
Speaker 1: go look at his surface numbers last year and be like,
Speaker 1: this guy was terrible. What are you talking about, Paul?
Speaker 1: But you gotta dig a little deeper. You look at
Speaker 1: his his core skills from forty innings. He had a
Speaker 1: seven thirteen r A but a three nineteen five. Those
Speaker 1: two numbers disagree big time about how he performed. It
Speaker 1: was this crazy thing. First off, forty innings is always
Speaker 1: just the tiny sample that you would never want to
Speaker 1: give too much credence to one way or the other.
Speaker 1: But he had this thing Keller did where he had
Speaker 1: five starts of five plus earned runs and then the
Speaker 1: rest of his starts were two or fewer. So he
Speaker 1: was either great or terrible, really nothing in between. It was.
Speaker 1: It was really kind of bizarre. But I like I
Speaker 1: like Keller. I think he's pretty good. He's there with Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1: They're not a great ball club, but they should. They
Speaker 1: should turn him loose this year and give us some
Speaker 1: good innings twelve. The one isn't too bad. I like
Speaker 1: Mitch Keller there um. As far as the longer shots,
Speaker 1: a lot of them don't really stand out. Of course,
Speaker 1: you mentioned, you know, Jordan Alvarez. That's how Rookie of
Speaker 1: the Year works. Though, You've got to kind of put
Speaker 1: your mind on some things that that don't necessarily jump
Speaker 1: out right away, and that's how you're gonna hit big
Speaker 1: because Alvrez was not the guy who was supposed to
Speaker 1: come up. It was Cayle Tucker, you know, and he
Speaker 1: never even made it up until like September, despite dominating
Speaker 1: at Triple A. Jeff and Paul will throw this out
Speaker 1: of the audience as well from wards, So the decade past,
Speaker 1: who's the person that scored the most points in the NBA,
Speaker 1: who's the person that threw the most touchdown passes in
Speaker 1: the NFL, And who's the person who hit the most
Speaker 1: home runs in Major League Baseball the decade nineteen Jeff
Speaker 1: Any thoughts on the on the most points in the NBA. Yes,
Speaker 1: but I'll hold them for now. I'll hold all my
Speaker 1: answers the next cause we're gonna we're gonna get to
Speaker 1: the MLB Homer's momentarily, which, by the way of the
Speaker 1: three is probably the hardest one to answer, And it's
Speaker 1: the only one I got right. It's the only one
Speaker 1: you got right, yes, which is just so that you
Speaker 1: know by the fact that you're saying that that's the
Speaker 1: only one you got right. That means my first first
Speaker 1: thought on the NBA is probably incorrect. That just means
Speaker 1: that I didn't get the obvious ones in basketball. Maybe
Speaker 1: they're not so obvious in basketball and football, but I
Speaker 1: was able to get the obscure one in baseball. Anyway,
Speaker 1: let's do these props because we'll get to the home
Speaker 1: run one at the end. We bring back Paul Sport
Speaker 1: from fan Graphs, so I'm sure has a guests on
Speaker 1: these two. But let's talk about where do we start.
Speaker 1: We do wins in UH wins in Major League Baseball
Speaker 1: pitching this year, so we did last week with PAULI.
Speaker 1: We did um who gets Cy Young's It's a little
Speaker 1: different calculus to come up with the most wins in
Speaker 1: Major League Baseball, but Garrett Cole of the New York Yankees, Oh,
Speaker 1: say that sense a few times. Seven to one is
Speaker 1: the short shot. Everybody else is in double digits, with
Speaker 1: Walker Bueller of the Dodgers and Jack Flaherty of the
Speaker 1: Cardinals being the next shortest at fourteen to one. Who
Speaker 1: you got here, PAULI do we lose pauls boor? Hell,
Speaker 1: hey there we go? Got your back? Who you got here? Paul?
Speaker 1: Most pitching wins? Yeah, I lost your for a second there.
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, pitching wins of court was really difficult to assassin.
Speaker 1: So you knew, you knew that Cole and and and
Speaker 1: Berlander and guys like that would be up again. I'm
Speaker 1: really gonna want to jump out and try to do
Speaker 1: something a little bit different if I'm gonna go with
Speaker 1: this one, and I'm not even gonna go with the
Speaker 1: two times cy Young, but I'm gonna go with his teammate,
Speaker 1: you know, a Synderguard at eight one. And I know
Speaker 1: the Mets they're not much for supporting their guys, as
Speaker 1: as mentioned with the gram, but um, I love Syndergard.
Speaker 1: I you know, I kind of have a weakness for him.
Speaker 1: He's really really good, and uh, I think he's gonna
Speaker 1: have some improvements this year. I think that's the quality
Speaker 1: team that they've got. In fact, a lot of the
Speaker 1: projection systems like them, although I will say the projection
Speaker 1: systems can accurately put in that little bit of Mets factor,
Speaker 1: you know, how the Mets. They say the Mets are
Speaker 1: gonna met It's hard to that's hard to bake into
Speaker 1: a system where they you know, kind of generally shoot
Speaker 1: themselves in the feet and things like that. But there
Speaker 1: is a lot of talent in New York with the Mets.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go with with synder Guard there for
Speaker 1: one of them, and then um another one. I like,
Speaker 1: you know, I wish his odds were a little bit
Speaker 1: longer because I am thinking that Corey Kluber could have
Speaker 1: a real big bounce back here in Texas. He's thirty
Speaker 1: to one. That still pretty good. But I'm surprised that
Speaker 1: that someone like Syndergard is so much longer than somebody
Speaker 1: like Klueber. I guess this market is acknowledging that, hey,
Speaker 1: Klueber is you know, a two time cy young He's
Speaker 1: coming off of a bad season, but he's still going
Speaker 1: to be a good pitcher. I think that Texas team
Speaker 1: could support him pretty well, at least offensively. Had more,
Speaker 1: i'd be worried. And if I was going to make
Speaker 1: a bet like this, you want to have both the
Speaker 1: offense and the bullpen piece locked in. In fact, I
Speaker 1: might want the bullpen piece even more locked in. If
Speaker 1: I'm gonna make a wins bet, then the offense, just
Speaker 1: because there's nothing worse than than turning it over to
Speaker 1: the bullpen and watched them blow a couple of wins.
Speaker 1: But Klueber is thirty two one, you know, eighteen eighteen
Speaker 1: and twenty wins. The three years before this past season
Speaker 1: where he only went two and three in seven starts,
Speaker 1: had a disastrous season, got hurt, got hit by the
Speaker 1: batted ball that broke his arm. Then I did get
Speaker 1: a strangel while he was returning and never came back.
Speaker 1: That Texas team has started to cultivate some interesting pitching.
Speaker 1: I wonder if we could, if I could make this
Speaker 1: bet and then ask that the Rangers please use Jeff
Speaker 1: Madness with Corey Kluber the framing god, and that way
Speaker 1: I can get some extra strikes and make sure that
Speaker 1: I'm getting the best coober that I can get there.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I'll go Kluber and uh Kuber and thor
Speaker 1: As some some of the longer shot. All right, Paul,
Speaker 1: spoorer who was Corey Kluber before Corey Kluber was cool.
Speaker 1: He called it well in advance, back in the day
Speaker 1: Kluber thirty two. One also have to consider ballparks, of course,
Speaker 1: but yes, bullpens huge consideration in the most pitching wins market,
Speaker 1: and thor Noah synder Guard at eighty to one, perhaps
Speaker 1: the uh the number one pick their value wise for Pauli,
Speaker 1: speaking of Garrett Cole, who was seven to one here
Speaker 1: and was the short shot in that category. The west
Speaker 1: Gate did put up a few Garrett Cole specific props,
Speaker 1: and I was curious if you had any thoughts on
Speaker 1: these total strikeouts total wins to throw a no hitter
Speaker 1: strikeouts The over under was two eighty and a half
Speaker 1: two eighty and a half, with the underjuiced over over
Speaker 1: plus one ten over two eighty and a half. For
Speaker 1: Pauli there total wins seventeen and a half. Um, I'd
Speaker 1: probably go, uh, yeah, it's really tough. I'd probably go under,
Speaker 1: but I'd be so I wouldn't put in anything on that.
Speaker 1: I'd have a hard that's a really strong number. They're
Speaker 1: seventeen feels about right, all right? Any thoughts on either
Speaker 1: of these or any of these three to throw a
Speaker 1: no hitters twenty to one, to have a fifteen plus
Speaker 1: strikeout game minus one thirty five, to have a twenty
Speaker 1: plus strikeout game, They're only given you twenty to one.
Speaker 1: That's come on. But the fifteen plus strikeout Yeah, the
Speaker 1: fifteen plus strikeout game minus one thirty five, that's interesting.
Speaker 1: I might take that, Yeah, would yeah, yeah, okay. Those
Speaker 1: are courtesy of fan duel, by the way, the Garrett
Speaker 1: cole One's um okay, and the Yankee specifically, since we'll
Speaker 1: just riff off this hundred seventeen wins, which obviously would
Speaker 1: be the the benchmark of modern baseball history. Uh, Yankees
Speaker 1: over under one hundred and seventeen wins, Yes, plus nine hundred,
Speaker 1: the no minus sixteen hundred. You know, I think they
Speaker 1: got to give you better than nine to one to
Speaker 1: take that. I would agree. I would agree good ball club,
Speaker 1: for sure. I'd be more inclined to put the money
Speaker 1: on the Dodgers. You know what, what what can I
Speaker 1: get as far as the dog if I was going
Speaker 1: to do something like that, But there's no way you're
Speaker 1: gonna get me at nine to one on something, so
Speaker 1: lofty like that, no chance. So I mean, I would
Speaker 1: take to know if I'm going to do it with
Speaker 1: the Yankees, but again I'm just not. I'm just not
Speaker 1: putting any units on something like that. And that's great
Speaker 1: advice because because that Yankees my seventeen plus wins prop
Speaker 1: the yes being nine to one, and that Garrett Cole
Speaker 1: no hitter with it only being twenty to one, that's
Speaker 1: just not the bang for your buck that you're looking
Speaker 1: for on these bets. Not good bets, all right. So
Speaker 1: then we get to harken back to my trivia question. PAULI.
Speaker 1: We're talking to Paul Sport for fag Graphs. That sporer
Speaker 1: on Twitter s p O r e Er most regular
Speaker 1: season and home runs. We'll get to the trivia question
Speaker 1: after this. But Mike Trout and Pete Alonso, last year's
Speaker 1: home run king, both at ten to one. Then it's
Speaker 1: Stanton and Gallow. Of course Gallow contractually obligated to be
Speaker 1: a short shot in this market. They're at twelve to one.
Speaker 1: This is courtesy of Fantel Aaron Judge thirteen to one,
Speaker 1: and Cody Bellinger and Nolan Eronado Bellinger who let us
Speaker 1: down those of us with tickets last year on this
Speaker 1: so badly they're at sixteen to one. Um, who do
Speaker 1: you like? Who's off the board? Alvarez by the way,
Speaker 1: twenty five to one. My eyes drift to him on
Speaker 1: Alvres That is pretty interesting. Yeah, again, just to reiterate
Speaker 1: for those that maybe didn't give me something like this,
Speaker 1: I'm rarely gonna go with the favorites. I acknowledge that
Speaker 1: they're there for a reason. Um, and and these are
Speaker 1: you know, obvious favorites. But I'm gonna go a little
Speaker 1: bit further off the board on something like that. I'm
Speaker 1: probably gonna look at you said that Alvarez is your
Speaker 1: guy that you're looking at Maddio Matt Olson one. Um,
Speaker 1: love Matt Olson. I think he's an excellent hitter, and
Speaker 1: he's really started to, uh, you know, from day one,
Speaker 1: he's really shown himself to be quite good. Remember last
Speaker 1: year he had the injury in Japan with the hammate bone,
Speaker 1: and we've always had this idea that like, oh, well,
Speaker 1: handmate surgery, there goes your power for the year. Yet
Speaker 1: it was it was a little bit uncertain how legit
Speaker 1: that was. That was just kind of an assumed thing.
Speaker 1: He comes back and pops thirty six homers in a
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty seven games, And then it sparked some
Speaker 1: people to do some more research and realize it's really
Speaker 1: more of a coin toss. How much that handmate surgery
Speaker 1: if you're in season, power if you come back from it.
Speaker 1: So he he didn't show any sort of ill ill uh,
Speaker 1: you know, trouble there with Matt Olson hitting thirty six.
Speaker 1: So if he can at thirty six and one seven,
Speaker 1: he can lead the league. He cant plus homers. Give
Speaker 1: me Matt Olson at one there, That's that's my guy,
Speaker 1: for sure. I'll give him to one. That's what he
Speaker 1: even says right there, to one on Matt Olson even better. Sorry,
Speaker 1: I was looking at the Yeah, I was looking at
Speaker 1: the app. So I guess they didn't update it because
Speaker 1: maybe one is updated. Maybe I didn't look at if
Speaker 1: you're looking at it right now, one would be the number.
Speaker 1: Then maybe these are a little bit outdated here on
Speaker 1: the screen. So, by the way, and let me just
Speaker 1: say this on regular season home runs on on the
Speaker 1: n L m v P, which we discussed last last week,
Speaker 1: the best player we would watch baseball and sports books
Speaker 1: every night. Obviously last week here in Vegas. Ronald Lacuna Jr.
Speaker 1: Was the best player more nights than anybody in the
Speaker 1: league last year, And I just wonder if I shouldn't
Speaker 1: take flyers on him and all kinds of categories because
Speaker 1: that's the one guy I don't think we've given quite
Speaker 1: enough juice too, because he that's a guy who could
Speaker 1: just add a you know, very easily pop off on
Speaker 1: all of these categories. So maybe he's an m v
Speaker 1: P shot for me on the one. Yeah, the Palmer's
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, he can get anything going with
Speaker 1: like a forty forty maybe taking something like that and
Speaker 1: depending depending what kind of number they gave you on that.
Speaker 1: But yeah, Ronald Coonia Jr. Is so good it's unbelievable.
Speaker 1: He's gonna be just twenty two next year. I don't
Speaker 1: blame you anything that you can get down at least
Speaker 1: have a little something tied to his excellence. You know,
Speaker 1: an MVP bet is perfectly tied to excellence, even more
Speaker 1: so than a home run bet, because he's got such
Speaker 1: a diverse skill set that I might be more inclined
Speaker 1: to take an MVP bet there, all right, real quick
Speaker 1: bit in wrapping up, because We started with a trivia
Speaker 1: question the decade. That was Jeff and Paul uh basketball,
Speaker 1: who scored the most points? Jeff, guess my first guest.
Speaker 1: Guest was little bron Ja. That was my first guest too.
Speaker 1: That is incorrect. That's why once you said it that
Speaker 1: it was wrong. Paully, what would have been your guest?
Speaker 1: Your guest rather, I mean it would have been le Brons,
Speaker 1: So then that's wrong. I mean there's Derek playing of
Speaker 1: the of the decade to be the guy. James Harden
Speaker 1: is the answer, James Harden, most part Okay Football, most
Speaker 1: touchdown passes, Jeff, your guest would be My guess was
Speaker 1: I guess was going to be Brady. But I have
Speaker 1: a feeling that's wrong to incorrect. Paul. Your guest Rodgers
Speaker 1: Drew Brees is your answer. So all three of us
Speaker 1: got those wrong. This one somehow I got right. Most
Speaker 1: home runs. This is where I was going with this,
Speaker 1: most home runs Jeff, no chads for me. Paul, I'm
Speaker 1: torn between two guys. I'm torn between Nelson crept and
Speaker 1: Edwin and Canarcione, Dan, Paul, those were those were exactly
Speaker 1: the two guys that I whiltled it down to two.
Speaker 1: That is why I love you and the answer is
Speaker 1: Nelson Cruz. Yes, well done, thirty five to one by
Speaker 1: the way this year to win the home run crowd.
Speaker 1: Thank you, PAULI appreciate it as always. Thanks Gil, take
Speaker 1: care of you too. Paul's four bargraps Nelson cru