1 00:00:01,240 --> 00:00:04,560 Speaker 1: Hey, welcome to Sign Stuff, a production of iHeartRadio. I'm 2 00:00:04,640 --> 00:00:07,800 Speaker 1: Horee Cham and today we're answering the question can you 3 00:00:07,840 --> 00:00:12,000 Speaker 1: stop a hurricane? Hurricanes are some of the most destructive 4 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:16,280 Speaker 1: phenomena in nature. A Category four or five hurricane can 5 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:20,159 Speaker 1: cause upwards of one hundred billion dollars in damage and 6 00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:23,680 Speaker 1: kill thousands of people depending on where it hits when 7 00:00:23,720 --> 00:00:27,280 Speaker 1: it reaches land. To find out if we can stop them, 8 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 1: we're going to talk to several experts, including someone who 9 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:34,360 Speaker 1: flies into hurricanes for a living and a scientist who's 10 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:37,560 Speaker 1: been tracking how these storms have changed over the last 11 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:41,160 Speaker 1: one hundred years. So batten down the hatches and get 12 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:44,320 Speaker 1: ready to get blown away as we answer the question 13 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:57,400 Speaker 1: can you stop a hurricane? Hey? Everyone, So today's question 14 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 1: is a pretty tall order. As we'll learn today, the 15 00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:06,319 Speaker 1: answer to can you stop a hurricane is actually sort 16 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 1: of yes. Red lease, it's not a no okay. To 17 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:14,480 Speaker 1: get started, we need to know what a hurricane is 18 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:18,200 Speaker 1: so that we know what we're up against, and I 19 00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 1: thought the best way to do that is to take 20 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 1: you inside a hurricane. So I found someone who is 21 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 1: a real life hurricane hunter, which means it's his job 22 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 1: to go into hurricanes. Here's my conversation with doctor John Zowislack, 23 00:01:33,959 --> 00:01:40,560 Speaker 1: a researcher at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration or Noah. 24 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:43,280 Speaker 1: Thank you, doctor Zoways Slagg for joining us. 25 00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:45,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's great to talk to you about hurricanes here. 26 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 1: Well, describe for us what is your current job as 27 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:48,960 Speaker 1: a hurricane hunter. 28 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 2: So, as a hurricane hunters, our job is take an 29 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 2: airplane into a hurricane. I'm at the no Aircraft Operations 30 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 2: Center as a flight director and meteorologist. So my job 31 00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:00,520 Speaker 2: in the airplanes is essentially helped navigate the storm, help 32 00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 2: the pilots out and make sure the data is quality 33 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:03,960 Speaker 2: and make sure we're getting the data to the ground. 34 00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 1: How would you describe what a hurricane is? 35 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:10,079 Speaker 2: Complete chaos at times. Obviously they're very large in scale 36 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 2: and when you go out fly one, you can really 37 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:14,520 Speaker 2: feel the scale of the motion, the scale of the energy. 38 00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:17,119 Speaker 2: So for us, we see them as the danger they are. 39 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:18,640 Speaker 2: We see them for the hazards they are. 40 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 1: So this sounds super dangerous. 41 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 3: Why do it? So? 42 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:23,919 Speaker 2: We often gets the question why do it? Why fly 43 00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:26,079 Speaker 2: an airplane into a hurricane? Right, We're taking a crew 44 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 2: into a very turbulent environment, just a little bit more 45 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:32,359 Speaker 2: hazardous than an any pilot would do. But the reality 46 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:35,040 Speaker 2: is that satellite they see the big scale, right, they 47 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:37,440 Speaker 2: see the cloud field, they see where it's located. But 48 00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 2: to actually see inside those clouds, to see the rain 49 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:43,720 Speaker 2: field inside those clouds, and particular the winds. Winds are 50 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:46,240 Speaker 2: very very hard to measure from a satellite, So the 51 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:49,919 Speaker 2: airplane allows us to go into the storm and measure 52 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 2: it at that high resolution scale, both in time and space, 53 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 2: to really understand what's going on inside that cloud field. 54 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:59,560 Speaker 2: Because when they make landfall, we know the impacts and 55 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 2: them that has on communities. Is what really motivates us 56 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:04,360 Speaker 2: to learn more and forecast better. 57 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 1: Okay, I asked, doctor, is always like, how do you 58 00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:09,800 Speaker 1: actually fly into a hurricane? 59 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 2: How we sample a hurricane with an airplane? First of all, No, 60 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 2: we have a four engine turboprop airplane called a P three. 61 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:19,960 Speaker 2: They are our storm petting trading aircraft, so they were 62 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:21,799 Speaker 2: built to fly low and slow and they could take 63 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:24,200 Speaker 2: a punishing too. What we do is we'll set up 64 00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:27,280 Speaker 2: a direct path from outside the storm to the eye 65 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:30,120 Speaker 2: to the other side, and it's a straight line, right. 66 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:32,519 Speaker 2: The safest way to fly a storm is a straight line. 67 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:34,480 Speaker 2: It's just you get in and out quickest, right. 68 00:03:34,440 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 1: Could you maybe describe the whole experience. You take off, 69 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:39,880 Speaker 1: you're flying, You're approaching the storm. What do you see. 70 00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:43,200 Speaker 2: It's just basically you start getting cloudier, You're starting to 71 00:03:43,200 --> 00:03:45,320 Speaker 2: get the rain. You might have a really strong outer band, 72 00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:48,040 Speaker 2: which is a really intense thin line of thunderstorms, and 73 00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 2: we're gonna have to navigate through that. You just kind 74 00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 2: of have to find the weak spot and get through 75 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 2: the outer band. 76 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:56,360 Speaker 1: Okay, here I thought would be good to explain where 77 00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 1: we are in the hurricane. You can think of a 78 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:03,600 Speaker 1: hurricane as a giant area of circulating air. The area 79 00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:07,200 Speaker 1: is typically three hundred but sometimes up to six hundred 80 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:10,640 Speaker 1: miles wide. And if you've ever seen a satellite image 81 00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 1: of a hurricane, it basically looks like a giant white 82 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:17,159 Speaker 1: cloud that is flushing down the toilet. But actually a 83 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:20,160 Speaker 1: hurricane is sort of the opposite of a toilet. It's 84 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 1: a lot of air coming together in a spiral and 85 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:25,880 Speaker 1: then shooting up from the center towards the sky and 86 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 1: then spreading out into that giant white cloud you see now. 87 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:32,479 Speaker 1: For the first few hundred miles that you're going into 88 00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:36,559 Speaker 1: a hurricane, things aren't too bad. This part is called 89 00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:40,800 Speaker 1: the outer band, and you're basically cutting through layers of 90 00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:44,840 Speaker 1: rain and thunderclouds that get progressively more intense. 91 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:51,440 Speaker 2: And then you start getting towards fifty sixty miles away 92 00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 2: from storm, and now things start happening, right. You're encountering 93 00:04:54,920 --> 00:05:00,960 Speaker 2: more turbulence, the winds are coming up, and I always 94 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:03,320 Speaker 2: say the biggest thing that happens is it gets really loud. 95 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 2: On the airplane. It's already loud enough because of the 96 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:09,080 Speaker 2: four turboprops running on you, but once you start getting 97 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:11,039 Speaker 2: the wind, you start really getting the heavy rain, so 98 00:05:11,080 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 2: it gets really really loud, particularly in the stronger storms. 99 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:23,240 Speaker 2: Ending of course it's bumpy. It's kind of a roller coaster, 100 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:25,800 Speaker 2: but you don't know what the next drop is or 101 00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 2: what's coming up next. Wow. 102 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:37,479 Speaker 1: Okay. As you get closer to the center, the winds 103 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 1: get faster and faster, up to about seventy to ninety 104 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 1: miles per hour, and then when you get to about 105 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:47,839 Speaker 1: thirty miles from the center of the storm, you reach 106 00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:52,000 Speaker 1: the final band of the hurricane. Here the winds can 107 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 1: reach up to one hundred and sixteen miles per hour. 108 00:05:56,200 --> 00:05:59,039 Speaker 1: This part, called the eye wall, is the one that 109 00:05:59,120 --> 00:06:02,360 Speaker 1: causes the most destruction when it reaches land. 110 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:11,360 Speaker 2: The eyewall is essentially a giant rainfield that's rotating. Now 111 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:13,039 Speaker 2: I don't want to call it a tornado, but it 112 00:06:13,080 --> 00:06:16,280 Speaker 2: has that really strong intensi so it's creating a lot 113 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:19,080 Speaker 2: of turbulent eddies, really really intense turbulent eddies. 114 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:20,560 Speaker 4: Yeah. 115 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:32,000 Speaker 1: Well, then if you make it through that chaotic, intense, 116 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:36,719 Speaker 1: spinning eye wall, you get to clear, calm air. 117 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:42,680 Speaker 2: So when you get in the eye, the rain comes down, 118 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:45,160 Speaker 2: the winds come down, You look out the window, you're 119 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:48,520 Speaker 2: gonna generally see a clear area. So if you ever 120 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:52,160 Speaker 2: see the really infamous pictures or hurricanes of that clear eye, 121 00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:55,320 Speaker 2: that's what we call a stadium effect. You just emerge 122 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:58,440 Speaker 2: into the stadium and it's clear above. Everything calms down, 123 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:00,920 Speaker 2: and you just get this beautiful bowl of clouds. So 124 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:04,400 Speaker 2: it's a true magnificent site. I mean, it's breadthaking. You 125 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:08,360 Speaker 2: can hear audible gasps because you're going into sunlight beaming 126 00:07:08,400 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 2: down on you, or at night you might see the moon. 127 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:13,080 Speaker 2: We kind of we call that sort of the Holy 128 00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:15,760 Speaker 2: Girl hurricane flying when you're in the stadium effect and 129 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 2: it's a full moon and you're looking at a full 130 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:20,120 Speaker 2: moon in the clear eye of this hurricane. But as 131 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 2: magnificent and onspiring as that moment, there's the downside which 132 00:07:23,760 --> 00:07:26,200 Speaker 2: you use. You know, for as beautiful as a storm 133 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 2: can be, you also know the hazards the risks that 134 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:32,120 Speaker 2: it poses because it's you know, if we're flying it, 135 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:35,480 Speaker 2: it's all likelihood, means that it's forecast to potentially make landfall. 136 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:38,880 Speaker 1: Oh, I see. The more beautiful it is, the more 137 00:07:38,960 --> 00:07:41,360 Speaker 1: dangerous it is to people outside the storm. 138 00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:44,080 Speaker 2: Right. A lot of times that's happening because the storm 139 00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:48,520 Speaker 2: is just so intense, right, So it's a magnificent, saddling image. 140 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:51,480 Speaker 2: It's magnificence flying that statement effect, But it's also a 141 00:07:51,520 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 2: bit frightening to us because you know that storm is 142 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:55,280 Speaker 2: extremely intense. 143 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 1: What got you're interested in this field in doing this? 144 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, ask my parents. I was growing up. There's two 145 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:02,680 Speaker 2: great gloves I had. 146 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 1: Flying. 147 00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:05,720 Speaker 2: Just loved when we took a vacation every summer and 148 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:08,000 Speaker 2: flew there. But I also loved weather. My first book 149 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:10,040 Speaker 2: I could ever read it was a meteorology book, a 150 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:13,520 Speaker 2: weather guide. Right now, my job is to fly in weather, 151 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:15,840 Speaker 2: so I get to work with aircraft, I get to 152 00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:18,720 Speaker 2: study the weather, so I say I am living the dream. 153 00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 1: You might say you're right in the eye of the storm. 154 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, we're ring the eye of storm. 155 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:28,000 Speaker 1: All right. So having met someone who flies into hurricanes 156 00:08:28,040 --> 00:08:30,920 Speaker 1: for a living, the big question now was whether he 157 00:08:31,120 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 1: thinks we can stop a hurricane. A lot of people 158 00:08:36,640 --> 00:08:38,880 Speaker 1: are wondering but on the internet, if you can stop 159 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:41,280 Speaker 1: a hurricane, how would you answer that question? 160 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:43,720 Speaker 2: Scientifically? If you have to think about the scale and 161 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:46,080 Speaker 2: the energy of a hurricane. Okay, this is a cloud 162 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 2: field that is several hundred miles large. A hurricane itself 163 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 2: will released an equivalent heat of about ten thousand nuclear bombs. Okay, 164 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:57,600 Speaker 2: that's a lot of energy. 165 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:00,960 Speaker 1: Okay. When we come back, we're really going to dig 166 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:03,440 Speaker 1: into this question. We're going to talk about all the 167 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 1: different ways people have proposed to stop a hurricane, and 168 00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 1: we're going to talk to different experts about whether they 169 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:13,560 Speaker 1: think any of these ways would work. Stay with us, 170 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 1: we'll be right back. Welcome back. Okay. We just heard 171 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:30,040 Speaker 1: a first hand account what it's like to go inside 172 00:09:30,440 --> 00:09:32,960 Speaker 1: a hurricane, and now we're going to answer the question 173 00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:36,959 Speaker 1: of whether you can stop a hurricane. To do this, 174 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:39,840 Speaker 1: I reached out to someone who's been studying hurricanes and 175 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:45,160 Speaker 1: storms for over thirty years. Here's my conversation with Professor 176 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:49,160 Speaker 1: Bob Hart. Well, thank you, doctor Heart for joining us. 177 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:49,679 Speaker 4: Hello. 178 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:55,600 Speaker 3: I'm a professor of meteorology at Florida State University in Tallahassee, Florida, 179 00:09:55,880 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 3: and my research is primarily hurricanes, how they form, and 180 00:10:00,679 --> 00:10:03,920 Speaker 3: trying to help out the public with proving the warnings 181 00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:04,800 Speaker 3: and watch us. 182 00:10:05,640 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 1: I'll ask doctor Heart in a minute if we can 183 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:10,520 Speaker 1: stop a hurricane. But first I thought it was important 184 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:14,599 Speaker 1: to talk about how hurricanes form because that's going to 185 00:10:14,679 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 1: help us a little later. Okay, back to the conversation. 186 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:19,719 Speaker 2: Amazing. 187 00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:22,000 Speaker 1: I guess we'll start with can you give us a 188 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:25,120 Speaker 1: brief overview of how hurricanes form? 189 00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 3: That's an hour question right there. 190 00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:29,880 Speaker 1: Sorry, we need a whirlwind answer from you. 191 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 3: They don't just appear with an eye suddenly. Usually it 192 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:37,080 Speaker 3: takes several days for it to go from disorganized thunderstorms 193 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 3: in the tropics to organized thunderstorms to having an eye 194 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:45,040 Speaker 3: could take several days to a week, sometimes even longer, 195 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:48,880 Speaker 3: and it has a life cycle of formation and growth. 196 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:51,280 Speaker 1: Can you maybe step us through that life cycle, like, 197 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:52,920 Speaker 1: how do hurricanes get started? 198 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:55,480 Speaker 3: Well, there's not one way, and it's a big area 199 00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:56,959 Speaker 3: of debate right now. 200 00:10:57,200 --> 00:10:59,320 Speaker 1: Really, we don't know exactly how hurricanes form. 201 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:01,320 Speaker 3: We know so some aspects of it. 202 00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 1: That's right, It seems we don't know exactly how hurricanes form. 203 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:10,600 Speaker 1: According to doctor Hart, we know what the basic ingredients 204 00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 1: are for making a hurricane, but we can't really predict 205 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:18,640 Speaker 1: exactly when those ingredients will turn into a hurricane. Here's 206 00:11:18,640 --> 00:11:20,240 Speaker 1: how doctor Hart explains it. 207 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:25,480 Speaker 3: We know that you need to have some rotation in 208 00:11:25,559 --> 00:11:29,640 Speaker 3: the atmosphere, whether that's due to the Earth turning corioliss 209 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:32,920 Speaker 3: or due to something else like a front. If you 210 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:36,120 Speaker 3: have that, and you have a moist atmosphere and you're 211 00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:41,240 Speaker 3: over warm water, then those thunderstorms can become increasingly strong, 212 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:45,480 Speaker 3: increasingly more organized. But the million dollar question that we've 213 00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:49,240 Speaker 3: been debating for quite a while now is what specifically 214 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:53,840 Speaker 3: causes those thunderstorms to get organized and what's enough. 215 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:56,520 Speaker 1: When you say organized, what do you mean. 216 00:11:56,760 --> 00:11:59,599 Speaker 3: Well, if you look at a satellite image of the tropics, 217 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:04,360 Speaker 3: you'll find that on average, thunderstorms are pretty sporadic. There's 218 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:08,600 Speaker 3: popcorn type thunderstorms. You know, thunderstorm in one location and 219 00:12:08,640 --> 00:12:12,040 Speaker 3: then an hour away there's another thunderstorm, but in between 220 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:16,359 Speaker 3: there's no rain or no clouds. That's not organized. Organized 221 00:12:16,400 --> 00:12:20,560 Speaker 3: would be if they grow in size and the rotation 222 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:24,520 Speaker 3: that occurs causes them to continue to reform and reform 223 00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 3: and reform so that it isn't short lived, so that 224 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 3: it lasts hours and hours and days and days. 225 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:35,960 Speaker 1: Okay, here's a quick breakdown of how a typical hurricane forms. 226 00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:39,600 Speaker 1: You start with a patch of warm ocean. That's where 227 00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:42,680 Speaker 1: most of the energy for a hurricane comes from. That's 228 00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:46,920 Speaker 1: what powers the hurricane. This patch of warm water heats 229 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:49,640 Speaker 1: up the air above it, causing it to go up, 230 00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 1: and as it goes up, it kind of creates a vacuum, 231 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:57,160 Speaker 1: pulling in more air from the surrounding area. So it's 232 00:12:57,160 --> 00:12:59,959 Speaker 1: a little like someone brought in a giant vacuum host 233 00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:04,920 Speaker 1: and started sucking air near the surface of the water. Now, 234 00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:08,240 Speaker 1: a sucker heart said, if the air has some initial rotation, 235 00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:11,720 Speaker 1: like from the rotation of the Earth, but just randomly 236 00:13:11,760 --> 00:13:15,560 Speaker 1: from the air current, that spinning will create a vortex 237 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:19,880 Speaker 1: as the air gets sucked up, and sometimes the conditions 238 00:13:19,880 --> 00:13:22,959 Speaker 1: will be just right. The air will be moist enough, 239 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:25,760 Speaker 1: and the top of the atmosphere will be cold enough, 240 00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:28,720 Speaker 1: and the wind shear will be low enough, and the 241 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:31,199 Speaker 1: thunderstorms that are there will come together in just the 242 00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 1: right way that it creates a complex spinning system that 243 00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 1: kind of acts like a runaway, self perpetuating machine that 244 00:13:40,400 --> 00:13:44,040 Speaker 1: just gets stronger and stronger on its own, all powered 245 00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:46,480 Speaker 1: by the heat from the warm ocean. 246 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:53,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a feedback where the warming that occurs in 247 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:56,360 Speaker 3: the column above the storm ends up leading to lower 248 00:13:56,360 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 3: pressure even more warming, and so it's a nonlinear feedback 249 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:04,880 Speaker 3: that strengthening of a hurricane makes even more strengthening possible. 250 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 3: And the theory says that as long as you don't 251 00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:11,280 Speaker 3: have something getting in the way of that, like land 252 00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:15,760 Speaker 3: or cold water, the hurricane will continue to strengthen, but 253 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 3: it doesn't reach infinity. 254 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:22,440 Speaker 1: According to doctor Hart, hurricanes would continue to grow and 255 00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:27,360 Speaker 1: grow indefinitely if it wasn't for one thing friction. 256 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:32,080 Speaker 3: There's a reason why we have a category five as 257 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:34,960 Speaker 3: a maximum, and that's because as it gets stronger and 258 00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 3: stronger and stronger, and now we're talking about winds of 259 00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:42,120 Speaker 3: approaching two hundred miles an hour. The friction goes up 260 00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:47,240 Speaker 3: very very quickly with friction between what with the ocean, 261 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:49,960 Speaker 3: so friction between the air and the ocean's while we 262 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:54,280 Speaker 3: get large waves in hurricanes. So eventually that friction becomes 263 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:58,040 Speaker 3: so strong that this hurricane cannot intensify any further. 264 00:14:59,360 --> 00:15:02,880 Speaker 1: Okay, those are the basics of how hurricanes form. Now 265 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:05,720 Speaker 1: let's get to the main question, which is can you 266 00:15:05,880 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 1: stop a hurricane? All right? Now we get to the 267 00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:13,440 Speaker 1: kind of controversial part of the topic here. What are 268 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:17,880 Speaker 1: some ways that people have said you can maybe stop 269 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:22,160 Speaker 1: a hurricane? All right? According to doctor Hart, there are 270 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:25,640 Speaker 1: three basic ways you can try to stop a hurricane. 271 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:29,960 Speaker 1: Number one, you can mess with the way a hurricane forms. 272 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:33,800 Speaker 1: Number two, you can try to cut off its energy supply, 273 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:37,560 Speaker 1: and number three you can try to blow it out 274 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:40,920 Speaker 1: of the water. We'll start with number one, messing with 275 00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 1: how a hurricane forms. 276 00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:49,200 Speaker 3: There were some experiments, it's about seventy five years ago now, 277 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:53,000 Speaker 3: Project Storm Fury, where they did cloud seating of hurricanes. 278 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:53,880 Speaker 1: What does that mean. 279 00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:57,920 Speaker 3: They put certain chemicals in the atmosphere in thunderstorms or 280 00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:02,320 Speaker 3: near thunderstorms to dissipate those thunderstorms. So this was like 281 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:05,000 Speaker 3: one of the earliest tests of weather modification. 282 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:07,720 Speaker 1: What did these chemicals? What were they supposed to do? 283 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:10,880 Speaker 3: They would reduce the relative you met the air, so 284 00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:14,040 Speaker 3: the cloud would go away, or you could turn the 285 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 3: liquid more to ice, which changes the physics of the air. 286 00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:20,680 Speaker 1: I see. It'd be like throwing salt up into the 287 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:25,280 Speaker 1: atmosphere to lower the freezing point. Maybe something like that. 288 00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:27,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, okay. 289 00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 1: One way to try to mess with how a hurricane 290 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:32,760 Speaker 1: forms is to spray the clouds in a hurricane with 291 00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 1: basically anti freeze, or actually the opposite of anti freeze. 292 00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:43,840 Speaker 1: And this is something scientists actually tried. Project Storm Fury 293 00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:47,720 Speaker 1: was a twenty year joint project between the US Navy 294 00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:51,400 Speaker 1: and the Department of Commerce where they experimented with spring 295 00:16:51,640 --> 00:16:56,479 Speaker 1: silver iodide to the clouds outside the eye of a hurricane. 296 00:16:57,120 --> 00:17:00,200 Speaker 1: The idea was that the silver iodide would trigger the 297 00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:03,800 Speaker 1: moisture in those clouds to turn to ice and eventually 298 00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:08,439 Speaker 1: expand the eye wall, making it weaker. It's something that 299 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:13,000 Speaker 1: actually works in a single small thunderstorm, but showing that 300 00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:17,360 Speaker 1: it works in a complex, huge hurricane is a different story. 301 00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:23,280 Speaker 3: The results were nonconclusive, and the reason why they were 302 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:26,439 Speaker 3: abandoned and never done again. Was because they could not 303 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:30,359 Speaker 3: prove that there was a cause and effect there. Sometimes 304 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:34,160 Speaker 3: it didn't have any effect, sometimes there was an intensification, 305 00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:38,640 Speaker 3: and sometimes they weaken anyway, So that experiment's never been redone. 306 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 3: And you're of course modifying the environment. With all this 307 00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:43,879 Speaker 3: junk that you're throwing into the atmosphere, you would be 308 00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 3: dramatically hurting the oceans and us. Even if you could 309 00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:49,520 Speaker 3: get all this chemical Think about what it would be 310 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:51,560 Speaker 3: doing to the fish, Think about what it would be 311 00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:52,720 Speaker 3: doing to the trees. 312 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 1: I see. So it could be an environmental disaster. 313 00:17:55,680 --> 00:18:00,320 Speaker 3: Yes, okay, without saving another environmental disaster. 314 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:03,359 Speaker 1: Right, right, okay? What are some other ideas that people 315 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:04,360 Speaker 1: have floated out there? 316 00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:08,000 Speaker 3: Pumping up cold water from the deep ocean. Once you 317 00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 3: get deep enough, let's say, beyond maybe two hundred and 318 00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:14,679 Speaker 3: three hundred feet, the ocean begins to cool and some 319 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:18,480 Speaker 3: of the ideas are to pump up that cold water 320 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:21,760 Speaker 3: to the surface to cool off the surface of the 321 00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:24,879 Speaker 3: ocean such that all that physics we talked about and 322 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:27,520 Speaker 3: that feedback doesn't occur or shuts down. 323 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:31,800 Speaker 1: Another idea to stop the hurricane is to shut off 324 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:35,280 Speaker 1: the source of our hurricanes energy, which is the heat 325 00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:39,879 Speaker 1: in the ocean, presumably would deploy something like an array 326 00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:43,800 Speaker 1: of deep water pumps that go down two hundred to 327 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:48,240 Speaker 1: three hundred meters and bring up cold water through hoses 328 00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:52,600 Speaker 1: or tubes. This could technically work, but. 329 00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:57,800 Speaker 3: The problem is you need to cool over a large 330 00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:00,960 Speaker 3: area for one storm, and in order to cool or 331 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,119 Speaker 3: for a large area, you need to drop all these 332 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:06,760 Speaker 3: devices that we haven't even created yet, and that means 333 00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:08,720 Speaker 3: you have to fly them out there in the right location. 334 00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:12,320 Speaker 3: And of course then you also realize that, well, we 335 00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:16,000 Speaker 3: don't know the forecast of these things incredibly well, which 336 00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:18,320 Speaker 3: means by the time you get there that forecasts may 337 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:22,240 Speaker 3: have changed, and now you've missed your opportunity. 338 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:25,680 Speaker 1: In other words, you could build this array of water 339 00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:29,119 Speaker 1: pumps and deploy them, but you need to build a 340 00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:33,000 Speaker 1: lot of them to cover a large area hundreds of 341 00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 1: miles wide, and then you might miss the hurricane could 342 00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:42,040 Speaker 1: unexpectedly veer off and miss the area of the ocean 343 00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:45,640 Speaker 1: you were cooling off, So then you need even more 344 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:52,280 Speaker 1: of these pumps. It all gets super expensive. Pumping cold 345 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:56,440 Speaker 1: water that's also just prohibitively expensive, and you don't know 346 00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 1: if it's going to work. Yeah, all right, what are 347 00:19:58,600 --> 00:19:59,960 Speaker 1: other ones? I've heard? Nuclear bomb? 348 00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:04,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, I've gotten those questions from the public. Those go back, 349 00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:07,760 Speaker 3: you know, twenty years when I started teaching at FSU, 350 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:11,560 Speaker 3: before social media became a real big thing. These sort 351 00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:16,679 Speaker 3: of questions become very nice graduate school questions for candidacy 352 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:21,360 Speaker 3: exam for PhD students to pursue their PhD, because they 353 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:24,399 Speaker 3: have to go through the math of figuring out is 354 00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:28,399 Speaker 3: this feasible sort of and what are the downsides to it? Well, 355 00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:30,560 Speaker 3: all the physics that we've talked about at the beginning 356 00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:33,760 Speaker 3: of this for how hurricane strengthens and forms. That's an 357 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:37,639 Speaker 3: incredible amount of energy, a really incredible amount of energy, 358 00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:40,480 Speaker 3: and we can generally calculate it various types of energy, 359 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:43,679 Speaker 3: kinetic energy, latent energy, thermal energy. So we can come 360 00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:45,920 Speaker 3: up with an estimate of the total amount of energy 361 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,360 Speaker 3: that is in a hurricane over its life. And then 362 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:52,040 Speaker 3: you can say, okay, well, let's say we wanted to 363 00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:57,120 Speaker 3: destroy the hurricane by matching that amount of energy by 364 00:20:57,119 --> 00:21:01,239 Speaker 3: the release of nuclear weapons outside the eye and the 365 00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:04,359 Speaker 3: eye wall of the storm to disrupt it. Right, So 366 00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:09,199 Speaker 3: you're basically causing this disruption in the normal structure of 367 00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:13,600 Speaker 3: the system with the goal of dissipating it. Well, if 368 00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:15,879 Speaker 3: you do the math out, total amount of energy is 369 00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:19,520 Speaker 3: equivalent to basically the entire nuclear arsenal of the world. 370 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:24,040 Speaker 1: In other words, what doctor Hart is saying is you 371 00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:28,119 Speaker 1: could stop a hurricane by blowing it up, but you 372 00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:32,800 Speaker 1: need about ten thousand nuclear bombs, which is basically all 373 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:37,639 Speaker 1: the nuclear bombs on Earth. That's just to stop one hurricane. 374 00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:41,159 Speaker 1: There would still be more hurricanes that season, and the 375 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:44,280 Speaker 1: next year and the year after that, not to mention 376 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:49,640 Speaker 1: the enormous mess exploding ten thousand nuclear bombs would make. 377 00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:53,320 Speaker 3: And so even if you were to do that, we 378 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,240 Speaker 3: don't know where to put them these weapons, Like where 379 00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:58,560 Speaker 3: exactly do you put them? Do you put them in 380 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:01,639 Speaker 3: a circle outside the eye? Well, well we don't know. 381 00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:03,520 Speaker 3: In the outer part of the storm, we don't know. 382 00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:07,800 Speaker 3: And even if you could do that with phenomenal resources, 383 00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:10,479 Speaker 3: probably more resources than it would take to go to Mars, 384 00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:16,000 Speaker 3: you now have caused a massive environmental disaster, both in 385 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:18,520 Speaker 3: the ocean and the air in this attempt. 386 00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:21,800 Speaker 1: Meaning you've basically radiated the entire Atlantic Ocean kind of 387 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:22,440 Speaker 1: and the. 388 00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:24,840 Speaker 3: Atmosphere there above it, and the food, the food supply 389 00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:28,000 Speaker 3: because so much of the world's food comes from the ocean, 390 00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:31,680 Speaker 3: and the greenhouse effect that exists. Of course, because you're 391 00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:35,239 Speaker 3: modifying the structure of the ocean. It's a nightmare. The 392 00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:38,639 Speaker 3: planet would be destitute financially, resource wise. 393 00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:45,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, let's not do that, all right. When we come back, 394 00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,280 Speaker 1: we're going to explore this idea more, and we're going 395 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:52,520 Speaker 1: to learn about the time when humans they have inadvertently 396 00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:58,040 Speaker 1: stopped several hurricanes. Stay with us, you're listening to science 397 00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:14,919 Speaker 1: stuff and we're back. But the people have mentioned Saharan 398 00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:17,080 Speaker 1: dust and wind turbines. 399 00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:22,280 Speaker 3: Yes, there's wind over Africa. Those winds often carry dust 400 00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:26,760 Speaker 3: into the atmosphere of the Atlantic, and that dust changes 401 00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:29,800 Speaker 3: the physics of the atmosphere there, causes it to be drier, 402 00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:33,200 Speaker 3: causes it to be warmer. So that changes the ability 403 00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:34,200 Speaker 3: to form thunderstorms. 404 00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:38,040 Speaker 1: So the idea to put more dust or less dust. 405 00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:40,760 Speaker 3: Well, you would want more dust in theory that would 406 00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:44,040 Speaker 3: prevent the thunder storms or decrease the likelihood of thunder 407 00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:46,679 Speaker 3: storms going all the way up in the atmosphere. But 408 00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:49,240 Speaker 3: yet again, this is a lot of dust you would 409 00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:50,600 Speaker 3: need over a large area. 410 00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:53,840 Speaker 1: You need to be pumping dust all year over a 411 00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:55,280 Speaker 1: huge amount of space. 412 00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think a lot of the people that 413 00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:02,840 Speaker 3: live in Africa and otherwise would appreciate having enormous fans 414 00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:06,919 Speaker 3: blowing at all this dust into the Atlantic air and 415 00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:12,719 Speaker 3: also changing the surface there and probably hurting rainforests as well. 416 00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:17,280 Speaker 1: So you could also stop a hurricane by throwing dust 417 00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:20,040 Speaker 1: at it, but again, the skills such that you need 418 00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:23,399 Speaker 1: an enormous amount of dust, how would you blow all 419 00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:27,480 Speaker 1: that dust from Africa? Okay? The last idea here is 420 00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:31,640 Speaker 1: to use a wind turbine basically a fan to try 421 00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:35,359 Speaker 1: to blow a hurricane away or at least a mess 422 00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:39,200 Speaker 1: with it. Okay, and then really quick wind turbines. I 423 00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:42,560 Speaker 1: imagine it's the same idea somehow you put wind turbines. 424 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:45,000 Speaker 3: And yeah, that was one of the emails that somebody 425 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:49,719 Speaker 3: had tried to patent an enormous ship like device that 426 00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:55,040 Speaker 3: would basically redirect air in a hurricane, preventing it from strengthening. 427 00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:58,680 Speaker 3: And the same questions logistically come to mind is even 428 00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:02,040 Speaker 3: if you could build this in enormously expensive device, how 429 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:03,639 Speaker 3: do you lift it? And if you're going to have 430 00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:06,639 Speaker 3: it floating in the water. Things that are very heavy 431 00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:09,439 Speaker 3: tend to move very slowly in the water, and by 432 00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:11,240 Speaker 3: the time you got it to where you need it, 433 00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:15,000 Speaker 3: the storm's gone formed and died somewhere else I see. 434 00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:17,760 Speaker 3: Not to mention the energetics of it. We've seen enough 435 00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:21,960 Speaker 3: examples of oil rigs and ships at sea that have 436 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:25,960 Speaker 3: been capsized during hurricanes due to the massive waves that 437 00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:29,800 Speaker 3: would just probably destroy this or certainly heavily damage it. 438 00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:34,280 Speaker 1: WHOA all right, So what does this all mean for 439 00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:39,600 Speaker 1: a question today? Can you stop a hurricane? I feel 440 00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:43,399 Speaker 1: like all of these potential solutions could work if we 441 00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:47,000 Speaker 1: just crazy scale up the engineering, throw all our money 442 00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:51,119 Speaker 1: into it, not worry about environmental disaster. I feel like 443 00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:53,920 Speaker 1: maybe the answer can we stop a hurricane is yes, 444 00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:56,359 Speaker 1: but maybe we don't want to. Yes. 445 00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,920 Speaker 3: I think we could be able to stop hurricane century 446 00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:03,119 Speaker 3: from now, let's say, when we're in a very different 447 00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:07,439 Speaker 3: technological environment, ideally with a lot more resources and a 448 00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:08,680 Speaker 3: lot better understanding. 449 00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:13,600 Speaker 1: So we might be able to stop hurricanes. But here's 450 00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:17,359 Speaker 1: the surprising part of the answer. According to doctor Hart, 451 00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:21,719 Speaker 1: we may not want to because when you mess with nature, 452 00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:24,960 Speaker 1: things can happen that you didn't expect. 453 00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:29,360 Speaker 3: So there's also the political aspect of that that you know, Okay, well, 454 00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:31,680 Speaker 3: what if it did work and you change the path 455 00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:35,560 Speaker 3: storm if you did cloud seating, Let's say of a 456 00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:39,000 Speaker 3: hurricane that was a day or two away from one 457 00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,879 Speaker 3: country and you weakened it, you could change the track 458 00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:46,320 Speaker 3: slightly enough that it ends up hitting another country nearby, 459 00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:50,120 Speaker 3: or ends up going into a major city rather than 460 00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:54,240 Speaker 3: a rural area. And then it becomes a mess, a nightmare, 461 00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:58,200 Speaker 3: because you're going to have some stating that Okay, well 462 00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:01,240 Speaker 3: we got a hurricane with high damage that we shouldn't 463 00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:03,360 Speaker 3: have got because of the modification. 464 00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:06,040 Speaker 1: Oh, it becomes kind of like a hot potato. 465 00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:08,280 Speaker 3: Yes, yeah, I guess the best thing for me to 466 00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:11,600 Speaker 3: close in on is hurricanes themselves are a part of 467 00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,800 Speaker 3: the climate, just like winter storms are, just like tornadoes are. 468 00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:19,000 Speaker 3: They occur, they play a role, and usually that role 469 00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:22,360 Speaker 3: goes back to, well, it's hotter in the tropics, it's 470 00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:27,560 Speaker 3: colder in the poles, and we're trying to redistribute the heat. Well, 471 00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:31,879 Speaker 3: if we don't allow these hurricanes to occur, we may 472 00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:35,320 Speaker 3: get something worse, something different that we're not prepared for. Anyway. 473 00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:39,440 Speaker 1: Okay, we heard from a hurricane hunter about what it's 474 00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:42,960 Speaker 1: like to go into hurricane. We talked about a lot 475 00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:46,879 Speaker 1: of the ways humans have proposed to stop hurricanes, and 476 00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:50,000 Speaker 1: so far none of them seem to work or be 477 00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,600 Speaker 1: very practical. Now, does that mean we are helpless against 478 00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:58,440 Speaker 1: the forces of nature? Not necessarily. It turns out there 479 00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:03,400 Speaker 1: is an instance where hu may have inadvertently stopped not one, 480 00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:07,160 Speaker 1: but several hurricanes. It's something I learned when I talk 481 00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:10,240 Speaker 1: to Professor Gave Becky and I asked him how the 482 00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:14,960 Speaker 1: number of hurricanes has changed over time. Here's what he does. 483 00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:21,880 Speaker 4: My name is Abe Becky. I'm a professor of geosciences 484 00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:27,040 Speaker 4: at Princeton University, and I do research on how climate 485 00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:30,080 Speaker 4: affects weather events, including hurricanes. 486 00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:34,120 Speaker 1: Amazing, I was wondering how has the frequency of hurricanes 487 00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:35,480 Speaker 1: changed over time? 488 00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:39,040 Speaker 4: So the part that we can answer very clearly and 489 00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:43,280 Speaker 4: unambiguously is that over the last forty years, the frequency 490 00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:45,880 Speaker 4: of hurricanes in the Atlantic has gone up a lot. 491 00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:49,360 Speaker 4: We have satellites and those let us see hurricanes very 492 00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:52,000 Speaker 4: well over the last forty years, and we are almost 493 00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:55,400 Speaker 4: one hundred percent sure that they've increased in the Atlantic 494 00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:56,480 Speaker 4: over the last forty years. 495 00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:58,800 Speaker 1: How many hurricanes are we talking about here per year 496 00:28:58,880 --> 00:28:59,600 Speaker 1: in the Atlantic. 497 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:04,280 Speaker 4: In the Atlantic, the average number of hurricanes, if you 498 00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:08,640 Speaker 4: go and you look before nineteen ninety five, that average 499 00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:12,400 Speaker 4: was much lower, as more than four, and recently that 500 00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:15,920 Speaker 4: average is eight or so. It's a substantial increase in 501 00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:18,320 Speaker 4: the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic over the last 502 00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:19,000 Speaker 4: forty years. 503 00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:22,800 Speaker 1: All right, what doctor Vicki's saying is that the number 504 00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:26,040 Speaker 1: of hurricanes per year has been going up since the 505 00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:29,840 Speaker 1: nineteen eighties. But here's the weird part. Before this happened, 506 00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:33,360 Speaker 1: the number of hurricanes per year went down. 507 00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:39,640 Speaker 4: So this increase over the last forty years was preceded 508 00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:44,200 Speaker 4: by a decrease over the preceding forty years. So if 509 00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:46,400 Speaker 4: you look at the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic 510 00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:49,520 Speaker 4: from World War II, or they say the nineteen thirties 511 00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:53,400 Speaker 4: to the nineteen eighties, they showed a very dramatic decrease 512 00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:56,520 Speaker 4: comparable to the increase that we've seen over the last 513 00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:57,720 Speaker 4: forty years. 514 00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:02,480 Speaker 1: These changes in the number of hurricanes are significant, which 515 00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:06,720 Speaker 1: makes the question what happened and here scientists are not sure, 516 00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:10,120 Speaker 1: but there are a few hypotheses, the first being that 517 00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:13,800 Speaker 1: it's a random fluctuation of the ocean currents. 518 00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:18,400 Speaker 4: The climate system. It sort of fluctuates on its own. 519 00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:22,320 Speaker 4: It can have time scales of decades. And in the 520 00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:27,920 Speaker 4: Atlantic there's this current it's called the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation. 521 00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:32,280 Speaker 4: It's a mouthful. This current brings warm surface water to 522 00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:37,520 Speaker 4: the north across the Atlantic, and that current seems to fluctuate. 523 00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:41,920 Speaker 4: Some decades, it's stronger, some decades it's weaker. And so 524 00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:46,560 Speaker 4: one hypothesis is that those chaotic fluctuations have led to 525 00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:51,880 Speaker 4: an increase in hurricane activities. Not everything aligns with that hypothesis, 526 00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:56,520 Speaker 4: but some evidence does. Another hypothesis is one to do 527 00:30:57,000 --> 00:31:01,640 Speaker 4: with human practices. It has to do with sulfur dioxide. 528 00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:06,120 Speaker 4: So one of the byproducts of burning coal was emission 529 00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:10,920 Speaker 4: of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere which would undergo chemical 530 00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:14,600 Speaker 4: changes in the atmosphere and become sulfate, which you can 531 00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:19,280 Speaker 4: see it reflects sunlight and it can turn into sulfuric acid, 532 00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:21,600 Speaker 4: and this is what gave us acid rain is a 533 00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:25,880 Speaker 4: side effect of burning coal. And as there was industrial 534 00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:29,280 Speaker 4: development after World War two in Europe and in North America, 535 00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:32,239 Speaker 4: there was a lot of emission of sulfur dioxide. And 536 00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:35,600 Speaker 4: so between World War Two into the nineteen eighties, you 537 00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:40,680 Speaker 4: had this cloud of reflective particles building up over the Atlantic, 538 00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:44,920 Speaker 4: and they reflected sunlight and they made the Atlantic colder 539 00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:48,760 Speaker 4: than it otherwise would have been, and they sapped the 540 00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:51,640 Speaker 4: energy that hurricanes would have liked to have had. 541 00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:55,080 Speaker 1: Okay, what doctor Vicki's saying is that there are two 542 00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:58,920 Speaker 1: possible reasons why the number of hurricanes went down in 543 00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:02,240 Speaker 1: the nineteen eighties. One is that it's a natural cycle 544 00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:04,880 Speaker 1: of the ocean currents in the Atlantic, and the other 545 00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:08,800 Speaker 1: is that it's due to us. After World War II, 546 00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:12,520 Speaker 1: we started burning coal like crazy, and that could have 547 00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:16,680 Speaker 1: cooled the ocean and reduced the number of hurricanes. But 548 00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:19,360 Speaker 1: then in the nineteen eighties, when we realized all this 549 00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:22,719 Speaker 1: pollution was terrible for our health and it was causing 550 00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:25,920 Speaker 1: acid rain, which was killing all the forests, we started 551 00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:29,240 Speaker 1: putting filters in coal power plants to take out to 552 00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:33,320 Speaker 1: reflective pollution, and this ironically could have led to the 553 00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:36,880 Speaker 1: rewarming of the Atlantic and the increase in the number 554 00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:40,400 Speaker 1: of hurricanes per year. Now, I brought this up not 555 00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:42,440 Speaker 1: to make the point that we should go back to 556 00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:45,480 Speaker 1: polluting our air and killing our forests, but to show 557 00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:49,640 Speaker 1: that human activity does have the potential to basically stop 558 00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:52,960 Speaker 1: something as large as a hurricane. And this is important 559 00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:56,600 Speaker 1: because of climate change. Now, we don't actually know if 560 00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:59,280 Speaker 1: the number of hurricanes is going to increase because of 561 00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:03,200 Speaker 1: global warming. Scientists have a strong prediction that it's definitely 562 00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:04,840 Speaker 1: going to make them deadlier. 563 00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:10,040 Speaker 4: We don't know whether the number of hurricanes in a 564 00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:14,760 Speaker 4: warming climate goes up or goes down. We know it's 565 00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:19,040 Speaker 4: possible that it might change by a considerable amount. Now, 566 00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:22,560 Speaker 4: this is where we get to the other metric, which 567 00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:28,240 Speaker 4: is intensity, and there we have a lot more consistency 568 00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:32,600 Speaker 4: and understanding that the peak intensity of hurricanes in a 569 00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:37,520 Speaker 4: warmer world should increase. And that's because hurricanes draw energy 570 00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:40,600 Speaker 4: from the warm ocean and the moisture, and so as 571 00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:43,320 Speaker 4: you warm the planet, you have more energy in the 572 00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:45,800 Speaker 4: ocean and the hurricanes will tap into that. So the 573 00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:49,560 Speaker 4: hurricanes that exist in a warmer world are likely to 574 00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:51,120 Speaker 4: have larger peak. 575 00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:59,120 Speaker 1: Intensities and therefore be deadlier. Exactly, all right, so recap, 576 00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:03,240 Speaker 1: can you stop the hurricane? The answer seems to be yes, 577 00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:06,360 Speaker 1: we can stop a single hurricane, but it would be 578 00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:10,600 Speaker 1: too expensive and unpredictable with current technology. And yes, our 579 00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:14,480 Speaker 1: actions can affect how many hurricanes happen and how deadly 580 00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:17,279 Speaker 1: they are. I think what's clear is that we need 581 00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:20,239 Speaker 1: more science. With more science, we could answer a lot 582 00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:22,479 Speaker 1: of these questions, and we could do a better job 583 00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:26,919 Speaker 1: of neutralizing hurricanes by being able to predict when they're 584 00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:29,439 Speaker 1: going to form and where they're going to hit where 585 00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:32,759 Speaker 1: people live. If we can do that, we can evacuate 586 00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:36,200 Speaker 1: people and prepare so that the hurricanes don't do as 587 00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:42,359 Speaker 1: much damage. Unfortunately, right now, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric 588 00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:46,640 Speaker 1: Administration is getting massive cuts to their budget. The Trump 589 00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:50,960 Speaker 1: administration has proposed cutting the NOAH budget by forty percent, 590 00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:56,080 Speaker 1: including killing its research division, the Office of Oceanic and 591 00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:59,919 Speaker 1: Atmospheric Research. So, if you live in Florida or tax 592 00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:04,480 Speaker 1: or Alabama, or North or South Carolina states that are 593 00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:07,960 Speaker 1: in the crosshairs of future hurricanes, I highly recommend you 594 00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:11,320 Speaker 1: call your elected official and let them know you oppose 595 00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:15,799 Speaker 1: these cuts because stopping a hurricane may not be practical, 596 00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:18,640 Speaker 1: but learning more about them so we can reduce the 597 00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:24,160 Speaker 1: effect is just common sense. Thanks for joining us. See 598 00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:30,600 Speaker 1: you next time you've been listening to Science Stuff. Production 599 00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:34,880 Speaker 1: of iHeartRadio written and produced by me or Ychm, edited 600 00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:38,920 Speaker 1: by Rose Seguda, executive producer Jerry Rowland, and audio engineer 601 00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:41,600 Speaker 1: and mixer Kasey Peckram. And you can follow me on 602 00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:44,839 Speaker 1: social media. Just search for PhD Comics and the name 603 00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:47,600 Speaker 1: of your favorite platform. Be sure to subscribe to sign 604 00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:50,880 Speaker 1: Stuff on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you 605 00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:54,040 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, and please tell your friends we'll be 606 00:35:54,080 --> 00:36:01,480 Speaker 1: back next Wednesday with another episode.