WEBVTT - Markets May Be Undervaluing Potential Benefit To DISH (Podcast)

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Pienl podcast. I'm Paul swing you.

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<v Speaker 1>Along with my co host Lisa Brahma Waits. Each day

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<v Speaker 1>we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for

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<v Speaker 1>you and your money, Whether at the grocery store or

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<v Speaker 1>the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple

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<v Speaker 1>podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as

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<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg dot com. Well as Lisa just reported, it happened.

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<v Speaker 1>So we finally got the Department of Justice approving T

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<v Speaker 1>Mobile's acquisition of Sprint, clearing one of the biggest hurdles

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<v Speaker 1>left to get this deal done. This deal is announced

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<v Speaker 1>more than a year ago, Folks, to help us break

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<v Speaker 1>it down, what the d o J actually said, today's

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<v Speaker 1>Nabila Ahmed. She is a deal's reporter for Bloomberg News.

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<v Speaker 1>She joins us in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. So, uh, Nabila,

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<v Speaker 1>what will? What is this d o J approval? What

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<v Speaker 1>does it really look like? D i J is requiring

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<v Speaker 1>Sprint in T Mobile to divest Sprints um prepaid businesses.

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<v Speaker 1>So this includes Boost Mobile, Virgin Mobile and Sprints are

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<v Speaker 1>in prepaid brand to dish and also give them some

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<v Speaker 1>spectrum assets. And on top of that, they have to

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<v Speaker 1>make available to Dish at least twenty thousand cell sites

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<v Speaker 1>and hundreds of retail locations so that Dish can actually,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, do its business with consumers. So far, the

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<v Speaker 1>market response has indicated that people are underwhelmed by dishes

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<v Speaker 1>involvement here and think that this is a wholesale win

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<v Speaker 1>for T Mobile, Sprint as well as Verizon and a

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<v Speaker 1>T and T. Is that what people are saying who

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<v Speaker 1>you speak to as well in the Billa listen the question.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, it can't both be a win for Sprint

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<v Speaker 1>and T Mobile and for Dish, can it? I mean? So, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>you can argue that Dish, you know, through this deal

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<v Speaker 1>will be set up to become a really strong force carrier,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's going to take a really long time. So

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<v Speaker 1>you've got Sprint and T Mobile being strengthened here, but

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<v Speaker 1>Dish is going to be a distant fourth I think,

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<v Speaker 1>and you know, making del Rahim today just said that

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<v Speaker 1>the remedies set up Dish as a disruptive force in wireless.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know about that. I want to bring a

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<v Speaker 1>te equal Asian. Uh. Jennifer Reid. Jennifer is a senior

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<v Speaker 1>litigation annalys from Bloomberg Intelligence. She also joins us here

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<v Speaker 1>in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. So, Jen, from your

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<v Speaker 1>anti trust perspective, UH, is there anything unusual in what

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<v Speaker 1>came out of the d o J today? You know,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think that there's anything unusual. But the one

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<v Speaker 1>thing I do want to push back on because I've

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<v Speaker 1>I've heard from many that this is really not going

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<v Speaker 1>to create a fourth competitor, and you know, what is

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<v Speaker 1>the d o J thinking? But I will have to

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<v Speaker 1>say that the d o J knows how much opposition

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<v Speaker 1>there's been to this deal and how much opposition there

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<v Speaker 1>may be to this settlement, and they're really still coming

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<v Speaker 1>off that loss. You know, from a T and T time,

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<v Speaker 1>Warner and I do think that they're going to be

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<v Speaker 1>very careful about what they do here, and they vet

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<v Speaker 1>these divestiture packages very carefully, and I have to think

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<v Speaker 1>they went through it with a fine tooth comb and

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<v Speaker 1>at least are convinced that this will do the trick.

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<v Speaker 1>But but in terms of being unusual or unique, I

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<v Speaker 1>think the time it took was unusual. How much came

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<v Speaker 1>out to the public was unusual, and even the announcement

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<v Speaker 1>today was a bit unusual. I'm surprised to hear you

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<v Speaker 1>say this. Do do you think that markets are sort

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<v Speaker 1>of under estimating how good this deal could potentially be

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<v Speaker 1>for Dish. Well, it's possible, that's one thing, But it

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<v Speaker 1>could also be that they still have a challenge the

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<v Speaker 1>companies with the state lawsuit. So this isn't over because

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<v Speaker 1>they still have a challenge. They still have to go

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<v Speaker 1>to court, and they either have to win in court

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<v Speaker 1>or they have to ultimately settle with the States in

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<v Speaker 1>order to get this deal closed. The other thing is

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<v Speaker 1>that Dish has been trading for a long time on

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<v Speaker 1>the expectation that they sell their spectrum assets and make

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<v Speaker 1>a ton of money out of that. This deal means

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<v Speaker 1>that Dish will not that's not what's going to be happening,

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<v Speaker 1>because they still will mean that Dish actually can't sell

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<v Speaker 1>control of those assets to anybody for three years. So

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<v Speaker 1>that may be another reason why you're seeing Dish kind

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<v Speaker 1>of share price performance being underwhelming today. So Nobilla, what's

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<v Speaker 1>the sense on timing when the sink can actually close? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I guess they could close now, even though the lawsuit

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<v Speaker 1>from the State Ages is pending. They can technically do that,

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<v Speaker 1>but my understanding is that the companies are actually going

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<v Speaker 1>to be looking to settle with the State ages, these

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<v Speaker 1>twelve states and the District of Columbia, and you know

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<v Speaker 1>the court date is coming up in early October, but

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<v Speaker 1>they're going to try to settle before that. I love

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<v Speaker 1>how Paul asks the question, you know, when are they

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<v Speaker 1>going to finally settle this? When can we stop talking

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<v Speaker 1>about that there's there's there's there exactly? I should just

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<v Speaker 1>mention just shares are up two and a half percent,

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<v Speaker 1>so people do see some potential upside here, much bigger

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<v Speaker 1>gains though so far year to data on both Team

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<v Speaker 1>Mobile and Sprint, I do have to wonder. Tara La Chappella,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Opinion earlier today was asking the question, really wisely,

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<v Speaker 1>why are anti trust regulators not more focused on the

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<v Speaker 1>wireless carriers in the same way that they are big tech?

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<v Speaker 1>Jen Well, I think the issue is that when they

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<v Speaker 1>open these investigations, they're usually based on complaints. This is

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<v Speaker 1>what triggers it and true antitrust complaints, not not complaints

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<v Speaker 1>that I just don't like this company, but this company

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<v Speaker 1>is doing things that thwart me as a new competitor

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<v Speaker 1>or in increase consumer prices. And when those complaints come in,

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<v Speaker 1>this is what leads to an investigation, and usually it

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<v Speaker 1>will be an investigation of a company that's dominant, dominant

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<v Speaker 1>within a market. And if you look at wireless, while

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<v Speaker 1>we call it a concentrated market and we have big carriers,

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<v Speaker 1>you can't really say any one of them is necessarily dominant. No,

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<v Speaker 1>but you could say that the fight between T Mobile

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<v Speaker 1>and Sprint lowered costs for consumers materially well absolutely, and

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<v Speaker 1>then eliminating that fight will end up increasing costs for everyone,

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<v Speaker 1>which is a reason why people think that A T

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<v Speaker 1>and T and Verizon are going to be such big

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<v Speaker 1>winners from this high up. So, I mean, Nobilla, come

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<v Speaker 1>in here. I mean, what's the what's the counter argument?

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<v Speaker 1>What's the counter argument that you know, America is going

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<v Speaker 1>to be leading in five G, this is going to

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<v Speaker 1>be good for consumers, that's the counter argument. You know.

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<v Speaker 1>This is what Makin del Rahim wanted to do with

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<v Speaker 1>the settlement is to be able to say this is

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<v Speaker 1>actually going to be good for consumers. And if you

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<v Speaker 1>had Sprint was left behind, as we know, Lasa's friends

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<v Speaker 1>got a lot of its own issue is and and

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<v Speaker 1>you know it may have gone broke or would have

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<v Speaker 1>needed to have been taken over by somebody else. They

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<v Speaker 1>would have needed a partner at the very least. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>So this is a way of ensuring that you have

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<v Speaker 1>a stronger third carrier as well as an emerging fourth carrier.

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<v Speaker 1>It's been such a long time to Bill, if I

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<v Speaker 1>forget the original terms of the deal, but is massa

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<v Speaker 1>Herosan and soft Bank? Are they exiting completely their investment?

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<v Speaker 1>They're not. They're not clemented the company. They are going

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<v Speaker 1>to be still in the new company, but Derscha Telecom

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<v Speaker 1>will be the controlling shareholder. And the terms, just to

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<v Speaker 1>remind everyone, so it's twenty six and a half billion

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<v Speaker 1>dollars is the overall headline value. And actually they're saying

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<v Speaker 1>that even though they're making these divestitures, um, they're planned,

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<v Speaker 1>forty three billion dollars of synergies will still stand. And

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<v Speaker 1>I was going to say, at least of the argument

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<v Speaker 1>that you just made that you asked no Bill about

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<v Speaker 1>is exactly what the state's argument is in court. And

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<v Speaker 1>the answer is going to be that the remedy is

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<v Speaker 1>not going to allow the other three wireless carriers to

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<v Speaker 1>raise prices. That that's going to constrain their ability to

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<v Speaker 1>raise prices. So that's exactly what the fight is going

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<v Speaker 1>to be going forward. And the one last thing I

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<v Speaker 1>should say is that you know, we are still waiting

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<v Speaker 1>for formal left c C clearance here, so the companies

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<v Speaker 1>technically can't close until they get that, and that might

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<v Speaker 1>not be until September. When that happens, the States may

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<v Speaker 1>have to go to court to seek an emergency order

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<v Speaker 1>to keep the companies from closing. This is so interesting

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<v Speaker 1>to me. I mean, yes, we've been talking about this

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<v Speaker 1>deal forever, but it involves so much, and it involves,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, so many different players, and I'm just wondering, Jen,

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<v Speaker 1>what's the next step with some of these state lawsuits.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, we we've heard that they're probably going to settle.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that your sense as well? Right now? I don't

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<v Speaker 1>see it that way. I think the states are really

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<v Speaker 1>dug in now at the companies are going to go

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<v Speaker 1>in there and try hard to settle, and the states

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<v Speaker 1>have more flexibility than the Department of Justice does in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of what they can accept. They can even accept

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<v Speaker 1>something like money just put into a fund or promises

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<v Speaker 1>to build out even for G in certain rural areas.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think that the companies will be trying very

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<v Speaker 1>hard to do that. The next step right now is

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<v Speaker 1>in August first meeting to hammer out the schedule. There

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<v Speaker 1>was in October seventh trial date that was agreed upon,

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<v Speaker 1>but it was contingent on T Mobile and Sprint getting

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<v Speaker 1>this deal. The terms of the deal done July twelfth.

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<v Speaker 1>Then that didn't happen, so Nobila legic real quickly. T Mobile,

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<v Speaker 1>what are they going to do with these Sprint assets?

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<v Speaker 1>Is there costs are taken out as a revenue, synergies.

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<v Speaker 1>What's the upside here? Yeah, I mean they've got these

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<v Speaker 1>forty three billion dollars of synergies which will be out

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<v Speaker 1>of operational costs. And really what they're getting is really

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<v Speaker 1>good quality midvance spectrum. Sprint has a lot of that,

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<v Speaker 1>and that you know, this is what they're going to

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<v Speaker 1>use to build out their five G network. Nabilla Ahmed,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you so much for being with us. Jennifer Reeh

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Intelligence uh and Nabilla of Bloomberg News, thank you

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<v Speaker 1>both for being here and passing through the d o

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<v Speaker 1>J approval. It is official. UH, it is official that

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<v Speaker 1>they have approved the tie up between Sprint and T Mobile.

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<v Speaker 1>Right now, we want to turn our attention to UH

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<v Speaker 1>to the Intel. Intel shows rose today after reporting second

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<v Speaker 1>quarter earnings that beat expectations, that gave an upbeat forecast

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<v Speaker 1>for chip sales, sort of an indo key indicator. We're

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<v Speaker 1>very excited that we're about to hear from the CEO

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<v Speaker 1>himself about what the outlook might be. There's been a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of question recently about the outlook given China slowdown,

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<v Speaker 1>given global economy. UH. So we're going to turn our

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<v Speaker 1>attention over to Intel CEO Robert Swan talking with Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>anchors Vonnie Quinn and Guy Johnson. You're listening to Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Markets with Lisa Ramowitz and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>If you speak with any chief executive or chief financial

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<v Speaker 1>officer of a big company, the buzzword today is artificial intelligence.

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<v Speaker 1>How do you use it? How can we best get

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<v Speaker 1>ahead of our competitors by understanding our business and deploying

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<v Speaker 1>it UH in a way that makes our our employment

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<v Speaker 1>more efficient. Joining us now as someone who knows a

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<v Speaker 1>lot about it. Don White, chief executive officer and founder

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<v Speaker 1>of Satisfied Labs in New York. So don before we

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<v Speaker 1>get into sort of the big conundrum of where artificial

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<v Speaker 1>intelligence can be deployed right now out and in the future,

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<v Speaker 1>just give us a sense of what Satisfied Labs is.

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<v Speaker 1>Satisfy Labs is an AI knowledge management platform that means

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<v Speaker 1>we take information data and convert it into a way

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<v Speaker 1>that machines can understand. Big buzzword around AI is that

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<v Speaker 1>machines can learn well. For them to learn these we

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<v Speaker 1>taught in specific format as specific verbiage. So what are

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<v Speaker 1>some of the early investors? Like? Who are you doing

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<v Speaker 1>business with right now? Our last round was led by

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<v Speaker 1>Major League Baseball. We've also worked with the Broadway Community,

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<v Speaker 1>a company called Broadway I which is a consortium of

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<v Speaker 1>producers and theater owners. And then red Light Management, which

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<v Speaker 1>is the largest independent music agency, has also bought in

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<v Speaker 1>for the entertainment and music festival business. So what do

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<v Speaker 1>you do for Major League Baseball? If I go to

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<v Speaker 1>city Field for example see field. The company started out

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<v Speaker 1>of the city Field. We were looking at a menu

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<v Speaker 1>and there was a question one of my co founders asked, hey,

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<v Speaker 1>you know they have bacon on a stick here, and

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<v Speaker 1>he said, hey, how could we find bacon on a six?

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<v Speaker 1>So we started promoting that idea and fans asked where

0:10:59.440 --> 0:11:00.800
<v Speaker 1>can I get baking on a stick? And the whole

0:11:00.840 --> 0:11:04.560
<v Speaker 1>idea kind of flew from that. That is a unique

0:11:04.559 --> 0:11:09.079
<v Speaker 1>story about how an AI UH data management company to

0:11:09.160 --> 0:11:13.040
<v Speaker 1>find bacon bake it on a stick. That's how I

0:11:13.040 --> 0:11:16.439
<v Speaker 1>guess that. My question is when we talk about AI,

0:11:16.520 --> 0:11:18.440
<v Speaker 1>it can be deployed in a whole host of different

0:11:18.440 --> 0:11:21.240
<v Speaker 1>ways across a whole host of different industries. Just to

0:11:21.280 --> 0:11:23.559
<v Speaker 1>give people a sense of what we're talking about, is

0:11:23.640 --> 0:11:26.760
<v Speaker 1>is basically being to call somebody, call a company up

0:11:27.200 --> 0:11:30.640
<v Speaker 1>and have a robot speak to you in a in

0:11:30.679 --> 0:11:34.640
<v Speaker 1>a sufficient way? Is it? Uh? The concept of predicting

0:11:34.840 --> 0:11:37.400
<v Speaker 1>a fans behavior? I mean, what what exactly are you

0:11:37.440 --> 0:11:40.400
<v Speaker 1>trying to cater to? In the AI sort of umbrella.

0:11:40.600 --> 0:11:44.040
<v Speaker 1>The future format is messaging. Messaging will be both chat

0:11:44.080 --> 0:11:48.439
<v Speaker 1>and voice. It's really about collecting all the exact answers

0:11:48.480 --> 0:11:51.200
<v Speaker 1>to questions so that you're not going through some tree,

0:11:51.520 --> 0:11:54.400
<v Speaker 1>but getting exactly what you need based on your query.

0:11:54.480 --> 0:11:57.360
<v Speaker 1>So all the technology companies right now are focused on

0:11:57.400 --> 0:12:00.560
<v Speaker 1>getting their information in a format or a way that

0:12:00.640 --> 0:12:02.839
<v Speaker 1>now when you do go onto chat, you can get

0:12:02.840 --> 0:12:05.480
<v Speaker 1>exactly what you need right away. How predictable are we do?

0:12:05.520 --> 0:12:07.360
<v Speaker 1>We just ask the same questions over and over again,

0:12:07.440 --> 0:12:10.960
<v Speaker 1>us humans. We have reviewed nine million questions in just

0:12:11.080 --> 0:12:15.320
<v Speaker 1>stadiums and about are very similar. But what you'll find

0:12:15.920 --> 0:12:18.120
<v Speaker 1>is I have sixty five different ways to ask where

0:12:18.120 --> 0:12:20.839
<v Speaker 1>the bathroom is? And it's really interesting to see how

0:12:20.960 --> 0:12:24.360
<v Speaker 1>people approach that very common question with their own little skew.

0:12:26.160 --> 0:12:30.560
<v Speaker 1>We're really boring essentially, what the nuts involved in this are.

0:12:30.760 --> 0:12:35.199
<v Speaker 1>So what's your relationship with Apple? So we are a developer,

0:12:35.520 --> 0:12:39.640
<v Speaker 1>we support the platform. So Apple business Chat has enabled

0:12:39.640 --> 0:12:42.800
<v Speaker 1>our technology to be put through in l a f

0:12:42.880 --> 0:12:45.760
<v Speaker 1>C and some of the other stadiums. So l a

0:12:45.800 --> 0:12:48.880
<v Speaker 1>f C is Los Angeles Football Club. Okay, that's soccer.

0:12:49.200 --> 0:12:51.600
<v Speaker 1>That is soccer. Just look at me. So if you

0:12:51.640 --> 0:12:53.880
<v Speaker 1>go to the game tonight, you'll be able to leverage

0:12:53.920 --> 0:12:57.959
<v Speaker 1>Apple business Chat to get a beer at a Express locations.

0:12:58.000 --> 0:12:59.959
<v Speaker 1>You can order your beer, pay for it through Apple

0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:03.679
<v Speaker 1>Pay on your Apple iPhone or or iPad, and then

0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:05.000
<v Speaker 1>go walk up and get it right away and go

0:13:05.040 --> 0:13:08.800
<v Speaker 1>back to your seat. So which industries have most effectively

0:13:08.920 --> 0:13:12.120
<v Speaker 1>used AI already? So m AI is heavy in retail,

0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:15.880
<v Speaker 1>it's now becoming much larger in sports and entertainment, tourism.

0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:18.480
<v Speaker 1>You'll start to see the transportation companies pick up on it.

0:13:19.040 --> 0:13:22.720
<v Speaker 1>Pharma obviously is another good opportunity to health the health area,

0:13:23.120 --> 0:13:25.120
<v Speaker 1>and I think just the whole food and beverage industry. Like,

0:13:25.160 --> 0:13:27.920
<v Speaker 1>we're working with some large brands both on the beverage

0:13:27.920 --> 0:13:30.680
<v Speaker 1>side that are interested in how this data could change

0:13:30.679 --> 0:13:33.240
<v Speaker 1>the way they predict products. What are people looking for

0:13:33.480 --> 0:13:35.560
<v Speaker 1>versus what are people getting is a huge area AI

0:13:35.640 --> 0:13:37.160
<v Speaker 1>can step in well. And I think that this is

0:13:37.200 --> 0:13:39.880
<v Speaker 1>actually super important because people think about it from a

0:13:39.920 --> 0:13:42.560
<v Speaker 1>messaging standpoint and from you calling someone up and not

0:13:42.640 --> 0:13:44.560
<v Speaker 1>knowing whether you're dealing with a human or a robot.

0:13:45.000 --> 0:13:48.120
<v Speaker 1>But what I when I've talked to CFOs in particular before,

0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:51.720
<v Speaker 1>what they say is we want to understand what to

0:13:51.880 --> 0:13:56.719
<v Speaker 1>create next and basically how to telegraph demands sort of

0:13:56.760 --> 0:14:00.840
<v Speaker 1>the way Netflix does right with shows. It's fascinating to people. Yeah, which,

0:14:01.000 --> 0:14:02.960
<v Speaker 1>so what are the some of the other applications here,

0:14:03.000 --> 0:14:05.360
<v Speaker 1>So I kind of get the stadium thing. What are

0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:08.080
<v Speaker 1>some of the retail applications of this. So retail is

0:14:08.120 --> 0:14:11.079
<v Speaker 1>simple as navigating a store, like you walk into a store,

0:14:11.160 --> 0:14:12.920
<v Speaker 1>and if you do talk to a person and get

0:14:12.960 --> 0:14:15.760
<v Speaker 1>guided to a location or a product, the store brand

0:14:15.800 --> 0:14:18.280
<v Speaker 1>never knows you wanted that product. So this fulfills a

0:14:18.280 --> 0:14:20.240
<v Speaker 1>demand curve, which is like what you just said is

0:14:20.280 --> 0:14:22.440
<v Speaker 1>if you could provide a digital messaging way to get

0:14:22.520 --> 0:14:25.720
<v Speaker 1>what people want instead of talking necessarily to a person

0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:28.360
<v Speaker 1>and looking for the staff, you now know what people

0:14:28.360 --> 0:14:30.120
<v Speaker 1>are looking for and how you can better stock and

0:14:30.160 --> 0:14:34.600
<v Speaker 1>provide product. I I love what this tells us about humans.

0:14:34.640 --> 0:14:36.560
<v Speaker 1>What have you learned about humans as you try to

0:14:36.600 --> 0:14:39.440
<v Speaker 1>recreate and teach computers about them? You know, there's a

0:14:39.480 --> 0:14:42.560
<v Speaker 1>concept in search called the long tail. It means that

0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:45.880
<v Speaker 1>we all assume that sevent of things were common, but

0:14:46.000 --> 0:14:48.720
<v Speaker 1>once you try to conquer that last, all of our

0:14:48.760 --> 0:14:52.240
<v Speaker 1>interests do become quite unique and personalized. So I've learned

0:14:52.280 --> 0:14:55.040
<v Speaker 1>is that we think very broadly about customers. But this

0:14:55.120 --> 0:14:58.720
<v Speaker 1>personal personalization move will require AI to really get to

0:14:58.760 --> 0:15:00.960
<v Speaker 1>what your needs are and my needs are and sell

0:15:01.040 --> 0:15:03.760
<v Speaker 1>to me what I can consume. Who do you compete against?

0:15:04.400 --> 0:15:07.000
<v Speaker 1>I mean, there's other companies out in the market. I

0:15:07.080 --> 0:15:10.320
<v Speaker 1>won't give them any airtime, right because that's not something

0:15:10.360 --> 0:15:12.480
<v Speaker 1>that I would do. But there are companies trying to

0:15:12.560 --> 0:15:15.320
<v Speaker 1>solve the same problem. But we are very dominant in

0:15:15.360 --> 0:15:18.440
<v Speaker 1>our industry because of our investor group and the people

0:15:18.480 --> 0:15:21.560
<v Speaker 1>that we've worked with. Got it, Donnie White, thanks so

0:15:21.640 --> 0:15:23.800
<v Speaker 1>much for joining us Donnie as a CEO and founder

0:15:23.840 --> 0:15:26.960
<v Speaker 1>of Satisfy Labs based here in New York City. See

0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:30.080
<v Speaker 1>another example of some cool tech in New York City.

0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:32.120
<v Speaker 1>It's not all Silicon Valley. I look at that way

0:15:32.160 --> 0:15:37.440
<v Speaker 1>to plug, plug plug the house they're trying to sell exactly,

0:15:38.440 --> 0:15:41.000
<v Speaker 1>will say, I will say, I do find it really

0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:43.840
<v Speaker 1>interesting that we learn more about ourselves as we try

0:15:43.880 --> 0:15:48.040
<v Speaker 1>to teach computers about us sometimes than we would otherwise.

0:15:48.160 --> 0:15:50.800
<v Speaker 1>And uh and I kind of like that. I kind

0:15:50.840 --> 0:15:52.720
<v Speaker 1>of like the beer application, you know, because the worse

0:15:54.160 --> 0:15:56.080
<v Speaker 1>stadium you go into a baseball game, as you get

0:15:56.120 --> 0:15:57.760
<v Speaker 1>there and there's a line of thirty people and you

0:15:57.840 --> 0:15:59.440
<v Speaker 1>miss an inning and a half and it's just not

0:15:59.560 --> 0:16:02.160
<v Speaker 1>worth It's I mean, bacon on a stick, bacon all

0:16:02.200 --> 0:16:04.880
<v Speaker 1>of one to know all this time, Bacon on a stick.

0:16:07.840 --> 0:16:11.240
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Markets with Lisa Brahmo Eds and Paul

0:16:11.320 --> 0:16:15.360
<v Speaker 1>Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio. Bloomberg Markets is brought to you

0:16:15.400 --> 0:16:19.560
<v Speaker 1>by Commonwealth Financial Network, home to the industry's most satisfied advisers.

0:16:19.920 --> 0:16:22.720
<v Speaker 1>Learn more about the firm that's been putting independent advisors

0:16:22.720 --> 0:16:27.520
<v Speaker 1>and their clients first since nineteen nine visit Commonwealth dot com. Well,

0:16:27.560 --> 0:16:30.760
<v Speaker 1>we have the SMP five so far this year. The

0:16:30.800 --> 0:16:34.720
<v Speaker 1>FED certainly remains dubbish. The economy is slowing, but as

0:16:34.720 --> 0:16:37.440
<v Speaker 1>we saw today, is still posting solid growth. So the

0:16:37.520 --> 0:16:39.800
<v Speaker 1>question is what's next. To help us answer that, we

0:16:39.800 --> 0:16:43.080
<v Speaker 1>welcome Scott Wren. Scott is a senior global equity strategist

0:16:43.080 --> 0:16:46.840
<v Speaker 1>for Wells Fargo Investment Management based in St. Louis. Scott,

0:16:46.880 --> 0:16:48.480
<v Speaker 1>thanks so much for joining us. Just want to start

0:16:48.480 --> 0:16:50.800
<v Speaker 1>our start off first by getting your sense of kind

0:16:50.800 --> 0:16:52.360
<v Speaker 1>of what you took away from the g d P

0:16:52.520 --> 0:16:55.240
<v Speaker 1>numbers this morning. Well and Paul, First, I want to

0:16:55.240 --> 0:16:57.160
<v Speaker 1>say before we get sorry, I want to pass along

0:16:57.200 --> 0:17:00.280
<v Speaker 1>my condolences to Tom Keene and his family on the

0:17:00.320 --> 0:17:03.760
<v Speaker 1>loss of his father. So always tough to lose a parent,

0:17:03.920 --> 0:17:06.679
<v Speaker 1>so I's wanted to say that. Um, but on the

0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:09.440
<v Speaker 1>GDP number this morning, you know a little bit better

0:17:09.480 --> 0:17:12.680
<v Speaker 1>than expected modest growth, and I think really for us

0:17:12.760 --> 0:17:15.840
<v Speaker 1>that's going to be the story for this year. I mean,

0:17:16.080 --> 0:17:18.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, we have an official number out there of

0:17:18.080 --> 0:17:20.399
<v Speaker 1>two point three percent. I think that's about right for

0:17:20.480 --> 0:17:24.359
<v Speaker 1>GDP for the year. So, uh, two point one, you know,

0:17:24.600 --> 0:17:27.600
<v Speaker 1>two point three anywhere in there. Uh not the end

0:17:27.600 --> 0:17:29.440
<v Speaker 1>of the world by any stretch. And I think that's

0:17:29.480 --> 0:17:34.040
<v Speaker 1>growth that that the stock market would would certainly find acceptable.

0:17:34.480 --> 0:17:37.800
<v Speaker 1>How long can the consumer continue to be strong if

0:17:37.920 --> 0:17:40.800
<v Speaker 1>business spending doesn't pick up speed here? Yeah, at least

0:17:40.840 --> 0:17:43.199
<v Speaker 1>I tell you that the consumption number inside of that

0:17:43.280 --> 0:17:46.520
<v Speaker 1>GDP number was pretty strong. But I think that uh,

0:17:46.560 --> 0:17:49.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, typically when you're when you're later in the cycle,

0:17:50.080 --> 0:17:52.960
<v Speaker 1>and and and you know, we're certainly in the last

0:17:53.000 --> 0:17:55.000
<v Speaker 1>third of this cycle, at least we believe we are.

0:17:55.280 --> 0:17:57.920
<v Speaker 1>You know, the baton would be hung would be handed

0:17:57.920 --> 0:18:01.280
<v Speaker 1>from the consumer to businesses who would and do capex spending,

0:18:01.320 --> 0:18:04.200
<v Speaker 1>and that obviously hasn't happened. But you know, we we

0:18:04.640 --> 0:18:07.040
<v Speaker 1>think that we are going to get some kind of

0:18:07.119 --> 0:18:10.639
<v Speaker 1>trade deal. We need some better business confidence that would

0:18:10.640 --> 0:18:14.600
<v Speaker 1>help UM in terms of capex is really capex spending

0:18:14.640 --> 0:18:17.879
<v Speaker 1>here in the States. UM is seeing some headwinds, but

0:18:17.920 --> 0:18:20.679
<v Speaker 1>also globally with a lot of these trade uncertainties. So

0:18:20.960 --> 0:18:23.479
<v Speaker 1>you know, for us, I think we can chug along

0:18:23.560 --> 0:18:26.720
<v Speaker 1>for at these modest rates of growth without a lot

0:18:26.760 --> 0:18:30.120
<v Speaker 1>of capex spending. But it would certainly improve and broaden

0:18:30.160 --> 0:18:33.080
<v Speaker 1>the economy if we could see uh, someone other than

0:18:33.119 --> 0:18:36.440
<v Speaker 1>the consumer carrying the ball down the field. So, Scott,

0:18:36.440 --> 0:18:40.360
<v Speaker 1>how do you think these GDP numbers will influence the

0:18:40.359 --> 0:18:43.960
<v Speaker 1>Fed as it meets next week? Well, you know, first

0:18:44.040 --> 0:18:46.120
<v Speaker 1>let me say that really in our opinion, we don't

0:18:46.160 --> 0:18:48.439
<v Speaker 1>think the Fed needs to do anything. I mean, you know,

0:18:48.480 --> 0:18:52.800
<v Speaker 1>we we we're a good level of unemployment obviously, of

0:18:52.880 --> 0:18:56.880
<v Speaker 1>inflation is modest although a little bit below the target.

0:18:57.359 --> 0:19:00.119
<v Speaker 1>But you know we're looking for a quarter point and

0:19:00.280 --> 0:19:03.640
<v Speaker 1>you know this this next week, you know, between some

0:19:03.680 --> 0:19:08.160
<v Speaker 1>potential positive or negative comments coming out of these trade

0:19:08.160 --> 0:19:12.680
<v Speaker 1>negotiations with with Minutian and Lightheiser in Shanghai and then

0:19:12.720 --> 0:19:16.600
<v Speaker 1>the Wednesday announcement from the Fed, where you know, you

0:19:16.600 --> 0:19:19.600
<v Speaker 1>could make a rational argument that they should do nothing,

0:19:19.920 --> 0:19:22.600
<v Speaker 1>uh the quarter point we're expecting, or you can make

0:19:23.119 --> 0:19:25.639
<v Speaker 1>an argument for the shot and awe of a fifty

0:19:25.640 --> 0:19:29.439
<v Speaker 1>basis point cut. So, um, the Fed's probably going to

0:19:29.600 --> 0:19:32.480
<v Speaker 1>kind of you know, keep you know, keep it right

0:19:32.480 --> 0:19:35.600
<v Speaker 1>down the middle to a basis point cut, talk a

0:19:35.680 --> 0:19:39.480
<v Speaker 1>little bit about inflation and a little bit about um

0:19:39.560 --> 0:19:43.600
<v Speaker 1>some risk to global growth. But you know, from our perspective,

0:19:44.240 --> 0:19:46.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, are are you really going to get much

0:19:46.320 --> 0:19:50.639
<v Speaker 1>bang for your buck? You do now? Maybe do in September.

0:19:51.000 --> 0:19:52.800
<v Speaker 1>You know, it seems like you're not going to get

0:19:52.880 --> 0:19:54.639
<v Speaker 1>much bang for your buck. And if that's what the

0:19:54.680 --> 0:19:59.120
<v Speaker 1>FED is trying to do with a rate cut, Umm,

0:19:59.160 --> 0:20:02.480
<v Speaker 1>not quite sure points is going to do it well.

0:20:02.600 --> 0:20:04.560
<v Speaker 1>Regardless of whether or not it will work, it does

0:20:04.600 --> 0:20:07.080
<v Speaker 1>seem like the markets are pricing in a basis point

0:20:07.119 --> 0:20:10.080
<v Speaker 1>right cut next week, in addition to possibly two more

0:20:10.280 --> 0:20:12.520
<v Speaker 1>later in the year. And I'm wondering what this means

0:20:13.040 --> 0:20:16.680
<v Speaker 1>for global equities, but particularly US equities. You have them

0:20:16.880 --> 0:20:20.239
<v Speaker 1>close to all time highs yet again today. Do you

0:20:20.280 --> 0:20:24.000
<v Speaker 1>think that this is supportive, especially with that strong consumer Well,

0:20:24.040 --> 0:20:26.520
<v Speaker 1>I do think it's supportive. And and you know, for

0:20:26.640 --> 0:20:30.320
<v Speaker 1>US stocks are not far from what we would consider

0:20:30.440 --> 0:20:32.200
<v Speaker 1>their their at are very close to what we would

0:20:32.200 --> 0:20:34.719
<v Speaker 1>consider fair value. You know, you look out over the

0:20:34.760 --> 0:20:38.520
<v Speaker 1>next twelve months, you know, maybe you can get you know,

0:20:38.640 --> 0:20:41.240
<v Speaker 1>six percent high or something like that. But I think

0:20:41.280 --> 0:20:45.080
<v Speaker 1>the most important thing, Lisa is that you have reassurance

0:20:45.119 --> 0:20:49.240
<v Speaker 1>from the FED that, should this global growth deteriorate, which

0:20:49.240 --> 0:20:51.119
<v Speaker 1>it seems like, you know, certainly the risk is to

0:20:51.160 --> 0:20:53.600
<v Speaker 1>the downside, that the FED is ready to step in.

0:20:53.680 --> 0:20:56.000
<v Speaker 1>I think that's what the market really wanted to hear.

0:20:56.600 --> 0:20:58.959
<v Speaker 1>Um Um. You know, we think there'll be two cuts

0:20:58.960 --> 0:21:03.760
<v Speaker 1>this year. He seems three seems excessive. But uh um,

0:21:03.800 --> 0:21:05.600
<v Speaker 1>I think it's safe to say that not only is

0:21:05.640 --> 0:21:11.119
<v Speaker 1>the US Federal Reserve, um uh, have the economy and

0:21:11.160 --> 0:21:14.360
<v Speaker 1>the markets back, so to speak. But you know, let's

0:21:14.359 --> 0:21:17.520
<v Speaker 1>face a little literally every major central bank on the

0:21:17.560 --> 0:21:20.760
<v Speaker 1>planet is either easing or trying to figure out how

0:21:20.800 --> 0:21:24.120
<v Speaker 1>to ease. I was a little surprised that the CB

0:21:24.280 --> 0:21:27.600
<v Speaker 1>didn't actually do something yesterday. I thought, you know, I mean,

0:21:27.640 --> 0:21:30.520
<v Speaker 1>it's like, come on, you know, Germany's p m I

0:21:30.600 --> 0:21:33.000
<v Speaker 1>s down at forty three and change, and you're talking

0:21:33.000 --> 0:21:36.359
<v Speaker 1>about doing something in September. You know, I just, uh,

0:21:36.960 --> 0:21:38.639
<v Speaker 1>I don't really get the e c B. I mean,

0:21:38.720 --> 0:21:41.439
<v Speaker 1>I think we need to need to act, but in

0:21:41.480 --> 0:21:44.119
<v Speaker 1>any case, these central banks are in an easing mode

0:21:44.160 --> 0:21:48.280
<v Speaker 1>that's going to be at least positive for the market

0:21:48.320 --> 0:21:51.280
<v Speaker 1>and not a negative. So Scott, given where we are

0:21:51.440 --> 0:21:54.040
<v Speaker 1>in this economic cycle ten plus years into it, what

0:21:54.200 --> 0:21:57.560
<v Speaker 1>sectors do you suggest investors take a look at you Well,

0:21:57.600 --> 0:21:59.800
<v Speaker 1>i'd tell you know, we've in in recent months, we've

0:21:59.840 --> 0:22:02.600
<v Speaker 1>taken a little bit of money off the table. We've

0:22:02.640 --> 0:22:05.600
<v Speaker 1>backed off of stocks in general. But what we're still

0:22:05.800 --> 0:22:08.720
<v Speaker 1>where we still have a good lean on is sectors

0:22:08.840 --> 0:22:12.159
<v Speaker 1>and we're we we think this expansion is going to continue.

0:22:12.600 --> 0:22:17.719
<v Speaker 1>We continue to like technology, consumer discretionary industrials. We do

0:22:17.800 --> 0:22:21.000
<v Speaker 1>like financials, which has been you know, certainly certainly dicey

0:22:21.520 --> 0:22:24.160
<v Speaker 1>on a year today basis, they've trailed not by a lot,

0:22:24.200 --> 0:22:27.240
<v Speaker 1>but by by a bit um. So we want to

0:22:27.240 --> 0:22:29.439
<v Speaker 1>be in those sectors that are going to benefit from

0:22:29.440 --> 0:22:33.199
<v Speaker 1>a continuation of this expansion. We think that's still the

0:22:33.200 --> 0:22:35.959
<v Speaker 1>way to go. We don't want our clients getting defensive

0:22:36.000 --> 0:22:40.119
<v Speaker 1>here and loading up on staples and utilities and and

0:22:40.119 --> 0:22:43.960
<v Speaker 1>and things like that. So that's the way we're leaning. Um.

0:22:44.000 --> 0:22:45.679
<v Speaker 1>I think that's where you're going to see the best

0:22:46.080 --> 0:22:49.640
<v Speaker 1>earnings earnings growth happen, not just in this reporting quarter

0:22:49.720 --> 0:22:51.680
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing, but as we look ahead over the next

0:22:51.840 --> 0:22:54.960
<v Speaker 1>twelve months or so. Just real quick, why should investors

0:22:54.960 --> 0:22:58.320
<v Speaker 1>just do sixty portfolio? Put it there, keep it there,

0:22:58.600 --> 0:23:01.040
<v Speaker 1>not think about it again. Well, you know, I tell

0:23:01.040 --> 0:23:03.040
<v Speaker 1>you one thing. Least, if you do that and you've

0:23:03.080 --> 0:23:06.760
<v Speaker 1>had this gigantic running here, at the very least you

0:23:06.800 --> 0:23:09.280
<v Speaker 1>need to look at doing some rebalancing to get back

0:23:09.320 --> 0:23:12.040
<v Speaker 1>to that. Because if you've had that split and you

0:23:12.200 --> 0:23:15.480
<v Speaker 1>started that seven years ago or something like that, you're

0:23:15.480 --> 0:23:17.199
<v Speaker 1>going to be way out of whack. And there's a

0:23:17.200 --> 0:23:19.560
<v Speaker 1>lot to be said. Most of our clients and most

0:23:19.600 --> 0:23:23.840
<v Speaker 1>retail investors, that's the foundation of your portio portfolio, whether

0:23:23.880 --> 0:23:26.520
<v Speaker 1>it's sixty or whatever it is. And then you've got

0:23:26.640 --> 0:23:29.040
<v Speaker 1>some portion of that portfolio you try to be a

0:23:29.080 --> 0:23:31.479
<v Speaker 1>little lighter on your feet on and be in the

0:23:31.560 --> 0:23:34.760
<v Speaker 1>right sectors and that in the right sectors out of

0:23:34.800 --> 0:23:38.280
<v Speaker 1>the sectors that are going to underperform. So um, the

0:23:38.320 --> 0:23:41.040
<v Speaker 1>foundation your portfolio should be in it for the long haul.

0:23:41.200 --> 0:23:43.359
<v Speaker 1>You can trim it and work around the edges, but

0:23:43.760 --> 0:23:45.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, mostly the stock market you need to have

0:23:45.840 --> 0:23:49.440
<v Speaker 1>the bulk of your assets dedicated. Scott Wren, thank you

0:23:49.480 --> 0:23:51.600
<v Speaker 1>so much for being with us. Scott Wren, Senior Global

0:23:51.600 --> 0:23:55.080
<v Speaker 1>Equity strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, which overseas nearly

0:23:55.119 --> 0:23:58.399
<v Speaker 1>two trillion dollars. Interesting to think about that, Paul, And

0:23:58.440 --> 0:24:00.959
<v Speaker 1>it's actually a really important point, which is that stocks

0:24:00.960 --> 0:24:04.719
<v Speaker 1>have outperformed so dramatically that you have to then reallocate

0:24:04.760 --> 0:24:07.280
<v Speaker 1>some of that back to bonds or reallocate some of

0:24:07.320 --> 0:24:10.120
<v Speaker 1>the money that you've gotten cast off from dividends UH

0:24:10.359 --> 0:24:12.960
<v Speaker 1>into stocks. So where are you going to go? But

0:24:13.080 --> 0:24:15.600
<v Speaker 1>right now it looks like it's pretty good backdrop with

0:24:15.640 --> 0:24:18.440
<v Speaker 1>central banks saying we got your back, and the consumer

0:24:18.720 --> 0:24:22.919
<v Speaker 1>still going strong. This is Bloomberg. So we got that

0:24:23.000 --> 0:24:26.439
<v Speaker 1>second quarter GDP print this morning. It was better than

0:24:26.440 --> 0:24:31.080
<v Speaker 1>people expected, still still signified a slowdown in the US economy.

0:24:31.480 --> 0:24:33.760
<v Speaker 1>The key question, though, for many people is what will

0:24:33.800 --> 0:24:36.080
<v Speaker 1>this mean for the Federal Reserve? Is this a good

0:24:36.119 --> 0:24:39.440
<v Speaker 1>sign or a bad sign for the US economy? Here

0:24:39.480 --> 0:24:41.600
<v Speaker 1>to tell us the answer to that, Carbor Kadona, chief

0:24:41.680 --> 0:24:45.040
<v Speaker 1>US economist for Bloomberg Economics. Here in our eleven three

0:24:45.040 --> 0:24:48.240
<v Speaker 1>oh studios, Carl, there was good news and there was

0:24:48.280 --> 0:24:50.240
<v Speaker 1>bad news. The good news was the consumer. The bad

0:24:50.280 --> 0:24:53.280
<v Speaker 1>news was business expenditures. UH and a number of other

0:24:53.880 --> 0:24:58.040
<v Speaker 1>data points what's your main takeaway from this report? Well,

0:24:58.040 --> 0:25:00.840
<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna stick with the theme of the O or here,

0:25:00.920 --> 0:25:04.720
<v Speaker 1>which seems to be caffeine and coffee. So, uh right,

0:25:04.800 --> 0:25:08.040
<v Speaker 1>let's just talk about coffee the segue there, no, no, no no,

0:25:08.240 --> 0:25:11.400
<v Speaker 1>not novel kind of coffee. I like free coffee. But

0:25:11.800 --> 0:25:15.720
<v Speaker 1>the theme here is that the caffe nation of consumers

0:25:15.760 --> 0:25:19.760
<v Speaker 1>and consumers spending really drove the show in Q two,

0:25:19.800 --> 0:25:22.479
<v Speaker 1>and this is really providing a template for what growth

0:25:22.560 --> 0:25:24.720
<v Speaker 1>is going to look like over the next several quarters.

0:25:24.720 --> 0:25:26.359
<v Speaker 1>So you want to see the Q three and the

0:25:26.440 --> 0:25:29.600
<v Speaker 1>Q four GDP reports in advance. Just take a look

0:25:29.640 --> 0:25:32.600
<v Speaker 1>at what you saw today in the Q two numbers.

0:25:32.840 --> 0:25:37.439
<v Speaker 1>Business investment has been rattled by slowing global growth, trade

0:25:37.440 --> 0:25:41.520
<v Speaker 1>tensions with China in particular. These things are not going

0:25:41.520 --> 0:25:45.560
<v Speaker 1>away anytime soon. Nor is the low level of the

0:25:45.640 --> 0:25:49.720
<v Speaker 1>unemployment rate and the tailwind that that's providing to household

0:25:49.760 --> 0:25:53.359
<v Speaker 1>income generation. Uh. And so consumer spending is going to

0:25:53.560 --> 0:25:56.399
<v Speaker 1>what not go away anytime soon? Not either. And so

0:25:56.560 --> 0:26:00.720
<v Speaker 1>really this modestly above trend pace of we're all economic

0:26:00.760 --> 0:26:04.000
<v Speaker 1>growth driven by consumers, uh, is you know, the the

0:26:04.080 --> 0:26:07.440
<v Speaker 1>new normal for the economy for the foreseeable future. So, Carl,

0:26:07.480 --> 0:26:10.600
<v Speaker 1>you mentioned trade as being an impact. We have some

0:26:10.800 --> 0:26:14.720
<v Speaker 1>tweets from Larry Cudlow the National Economic Council UH today

0:26:14.840 --> 0:26:17.280
<v Speaker 1>just coming across saying the U. S And China not

0:26:17.440 --> 0:26:20.760
<v Speaker 1>expected to reach a grand deal next week. That's according

0:26:20.800 --> 0:26:24.560
<v Speaker 1>to Mr Cudlow. How important is getting something done on

0:26:24.760 --> 0:26:28.560
<v Speaker 1>trade or not to these GDP numbers that we're seeing. Well,

0:26:28.600 --> 0:26:31.919
<v Speaker 1>absolutely we see a significant distortion. We saw it in

0:26:32.080 --> 0:26:34.440
<v Speaker 1>UH in the back half of last year. We saw

0:26:34.440 --> 0:26:37.359
<v Speaker 1>it in the Q one number. So when the trade

0:26:37.400 --> 0:26:41.840
<v Speaker 1>gap narrowed dramatically in inventory levels increased, all of that

0:26:41.960 --> 0:26:45.920
<v Speaker 1>was due to trade saber rattling because producers are trying

0:26:45.960 --> 0:26:49.840
<v Speaker 1>to pad their supply chains and rush materials in before

0:26:49.880 --> 0:26:52.840
<v Speaker 1>tariffs go into effect. And UH they're afraid to make

0:26:52.880 --> 0:26:56.520
<v Speaker 1>capital outlays as they don't know what the next twists

0:26:56.520 --> 0:26:59.560
<v Speaker 1>and turns in the trade war will actually be. So

0:26:59.680 --> 0:27:03.120
<v Speaker 1>we're certainly see an impact in the economic data, especially

0:27:03.160 --> 0:27:06.960
<v Speaker 1>business investment UH. And will that go away anytime soon?

0:27:07.560 --> 0:27:09.720
<v Speaker 1>I'm very much in the cut Low camp here that

0:27:09.800 --> 0:27:13.800
<v Speaker 1>I don't see any grand compromise coming down the pike,

0:27:14.400 --> 0:27:18.840
<v Speaker 1>probably not until at least after the election. So we

0:27:18.880 --> 0:27:23.199
<v Speaker 1>may see a little deals on Huawei or soybean or

0:27:23.520 --> 0:27:27.159
<v Speaker 1>agricultural purchases and whatnot. We're not going to see a

0:27:27.320 --> 0:27:31.199
<v Speaker 1>grand compromise because that's I think an important pillar of

0:27:31.280 --> 0:27:35.720
<v Speaker 1>President Trump's reelection campaign. So the big question w W

0:27:37.040 --> 0:27:40.520
<v Speaker 1>T F D what would the FED do? Right? I mean,

0:27:40.600 --> 0:27:48.320
<v Speaker 1>the question is here. I'm I'm trying to figure out,

0:27:48.560 --> 0:27:51.440
<v Speaker 1>you know, what does this all mean for the expected

0:27:51.480 --> 0:27:53.639
<v Speaker 1>three rate cuts that are gonna get this year. Well,

0:27:53.680 --> 0:27:58.800
<v Speaker 1>this means that next week's basis point cut is largely

0:27:58.800 --> 0:28:02.720
<v Speaker 1>appropriate for the Fed. I think that they'll follow through

0:28:02.760 --> 0:28:07.520
<v Speaker 1>with another rape cut, probably at the December meeting, maybe October.

0:28:07.960 --> 0:28:09.560
<v Speaker 1>I don't think the FED wants to go back to

0:28:09.600 --> 0:28:13.840
<v Speaker 1>back with basis points July basis points in September. Then

0:28:13.880 --> 0:28:17.520
<v Speaker 1>you start to create a feeding frenzy in the marketplace,

0:28:17.520 --> 0:28:19.600
<v Speaker 1>where the market is going to then drag the FED

0:28:19.640 --> 0:28:23.159
<v Speaker 1>into a more pronounced easing cycle than the FED really

0:28:23.160 --> 0:28:25.439
<v Speaker 1>wants to invasion. But but here's my question. I mean,

0:28:25.480 --> 0:28:28.200
<v Speaker 1>does this GDP report move the needle in any way,

0:28:28.200 --> 0:28:32.600
<v Speaker 1>shape or form. Even though it gives a FED confidence

0:28:32.640 --> 0:28:36.480
<v Speaker 1>that consumers are looking good, it also reinforces their concerns

0:28:36.560 --> 0:28:39.720
<v Speaker 1>about a weak business investment climate, which is which is

0:28:39.760 --> 0:28:41.920
<v Speaker 1>almost I mean, I don't want to say entirely due

0:28:41.960 --> 0:28:45.239
<v Speaker 1>to trade, but significantly due to trade. It's trade, it's

0:28:45.280 --> 0:28:48.000
<v Speaker 1>slowing global growth, and it's a strong dollar, which is

0:28:48.120 --> 0:28:50.080
<v Speaker 1>part of the reason why the FED needs to ease.

0:28:50.200 --> 0:28:53.320
<v Speaker 1>If central banks around the global are easing, which we

0:28:53.400 --> 0:28:56.040
<v Speaker 1>saw hints it that is coming soon from the e

0:28:56.160 --> 0:28:59.840
<v Speaker 1>c B, We've already seen it from Australia, New Zealand,

0:29:00.040 --> 0:29:04.200
<v Speaker 1>South Africa, a slew of emerging market central banks, Turkey

0:29:03.920 --> 0:29:06.640
<v Speaker 1>the earlier this week. If everyone else is easy and

0:29:06.680 --> 0:29:09.200
<v Speaker 1>the FED is not, you're going to have a very

0:29:09.200 --> 0:29:13.600
<v Speaker 1>strong trade weighted dollar, which is a de facto tightening

0:29:13.640 --> 0:29:16.000
<v Speaker 1>of monetary conditions in the US economy. So the FED

0:29:16.120 --> 0:29:18.360
<v Speaker 1>needs to do a little bit of easy just to

0:29:18.400 --> 0:29:22.480
<v Speaker 1>avoid the dollar blowing through the roof and really toppling

0:29:22.800 --> 0:29:25.800
<v Speaker 1>both the export sector and a lot of domestic industry

0:29:26.040 --> 0:29:29.120
<v Speaker 1>which is sensitive to currency strengths as well. Carra Kadonna,

0:29:29.200 --> 0:29:31.480
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much for the perspective. Carra Kadona, chief

0:29:31.560 --> 0:29:36.400
<v Speaker 1>US economist for Bloomberg Economics, UH talking about that GDP report,

0:29:36.520 --> 0:29:39.800
<v Speaker 1>US growth slowing to two point one percent, still ahead

0:29:39.800 --> 0:29:43.680
<v Speaker 1>of the expected one point eight percent in the quarter

0:29:43.840 --> 0:29:46.360
<v Speaker 1>in a year in annual terms. We do want to

0:29:46.360 --> 0:29:49.720
<v Speaker 1>just bring you those headlines that we had earlier about

0:29:49.920 --> 0:29:53.000
<v Speaker 1>US China not expected to reach some sort of grand

0:29:53.000 --> 0:29:55.560
<v Speaker 1>deal nets the week. This according to Larry Cutlow speaking

0:29:55.560 --> 0:29:58.320
<v Speaker 1>on CNBC. He also said that the White House has

0:29:58.440 --> 0:30:03.160
<v Speaker 1>ruled out any current the intervention, shooting down some speculation

0:30:03.520 --> 0:30:07.280
<v Speaker 1>that President Trump may intervene to weaken the dollar further.

0:30:07.800 --> 0:30:13.360
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P

0:30:13.480 --> 0:30:16.480
<v Speaker 1>and L podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews

0:30:16.480 --> 0:30:20.560
<v Speaker 1>at Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast platform you prefer.

0:30:20.960 --> 0:30:24.520
<v Speaker 1>I'm pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm

0:30:24.560 --> 0:30:27.840
<v Speaker 1>on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's one before the podcast.

0:30:27.880 --> 0:30:30.480
<v Speaker 1>You can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio.