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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game?

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read enough? No, We're running a game.

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Speaker 1: So smoothe so sweet, sid sisting just glorious.

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Speaker 2: Ex procution, guys. All I'm looking for is sixty percent

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Speaker 2: effort four thousand percent.

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Speaker 1: Of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that?

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Speaker 1: Shop with mind, buddy, and that's why you see your

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Speaker 1: beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements the most.

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Speaker 3: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: The one. It's left to the wide eyed drill pibus

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Speaker 3: how old earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 1: Hello, everybody, Welcome back to Wondergol, the soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 1: from the Action Network. My name is Michael Leeba. Joining

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Speaker 1: me in just a moment will be my co hosts

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Speaker 1: friends colleagues BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo. But before I

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Speaker 1: bring them in, a reminder that wonder goal is presented

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Speaker 1: to you by Bet three six five, the world's favorite

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Speaker 1: sportsbook brand. Sign up with promo code action to get

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Speaker 1: BET three six fives exclusive sign up offer in New

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Speaker 1: Jersey and Colorado. Bet one dollar on any game, get

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Speaker 1: two hundred free boys. This is the last European soccer

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Speaker 1: weekend before the World Cup, and on that point a reminder,

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Speaker 1: we will have preview pods dropping Monday, groups A through

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Speaker 1: D and then groups E through H. Spoiler alert, a

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Speaker 1: lot of japan talk in that second one. Then Tuesday

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Speaker 1: will we have our favorite team and player futures preview pod.

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Speaker 1: And from there it's just gonna be a ton of

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Speaker 1: stuff coming to you from us at wonder Goal on

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Speaker 1: Action Network dot Com, on the app. Coverage for every

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Speaker 1: match in all sorts of different ways, So be on

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Speaker 1: the lot for that. Follow the Wondergol podcast in the

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Speaker 1: app for all your World Cup bets. Make sure you

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Speaker 1: download the app. You can track all your bets there.

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Speaker 1: But now let's shift our focus. Right. Focus is a

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Speaker 1: keyword this this weekend.

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Speaker 2: By the way, you can tell from Michael's tone, how

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Speaker 2: how wonderful these matches are going to be this week.

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Speaker 4: We did all this World Cup prep, we just recorded

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Speaker 4: the episodes and now it's like, oh, we have to

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Speaker 4: talk about the Premier League again.

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Speaker 1: I think.

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Speaker 3: But if you're thinking that, I think it's fair to

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Speaker 3: say that the teams have already announced players.

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Speaker 2: Right, So I counted up. I've written fourteen thousand words

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Speaker 2: on the World Cup. So you can tell maybe we're

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Speaker 2: a little exhausted from doing that, but yeah, hey we

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Speaker 2: got the Premier League to Sheremoury passed the ball around

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Speaker 2: for a weekend.

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Speaker 1: That's the thing, like it's it's this is going to be.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be a weird slate handicap, which is both

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Speaker 1: good and bad. And the first game we'll talk about,

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Speaker 1: which is man City minus eight hund hosting Brentford fourteen

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Speaker 1: to one and the draws plus seven fifty. This is

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Speaker 1: that the Etty had is a great kind of microcosm

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Speaker 1: for the slate at large, because City, except for Earling Holland,

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Speaker 1: like everyone's getting ready to go to the World Cup.

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Speaker 1: Brentford they've got players going, but they also have a

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Speaker 1: manager who knows how to motivate them and knows how

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Speaker 1: to get them all on the same page. And who's

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Speaker 1: going to know that this is going to be a

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Speaker 1: sleepy spot for City. I expect Brentford to be one

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Speaker 1: of a few teams here that are going to be

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Speaker 1: really dangerous. I think this is a great spot to

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Speaker 1: be playing at City. I like Brentford on the money

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Speaker 1: line there as high as nineteen to one out there,

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Speaker 1: I'll be betting it. I think that we saw last

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Speaker 1: year's city City has lost to twenty to one underdogs before.

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Speaker 1: If there's going to be a team to take advantage

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Speaker 1: of what could be a really sleepy city team with

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Speaker 1: their eyes on Katar, I couldn't really. There's maybe one

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Speaker 1: or two other teams in this league, Brighton maybe Leads,

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Speaker 1: that would be able to take advantage of the spot

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Speaker 1: better than Brentford. But I think that's even arguable. So

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Speaker 1: I'm on the bees, Anthony. What about you, well, I.

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Speaker 4: Think the irrelevant of the spot, I would bet Brentford

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Speaker 4: here right, I would be perfectly happy betting Brentford plus

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Speaker 4: two and a quarter. I think they're clearly undervalued. I

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Speaker 4: think it should be a little bit under two. Brentford

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Speaker 4: continues to run pretty well this season, with their performances

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Speaker 4: slightly above average expected goal difference, no reason to think

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Speaker 4: they're any worse than they were last year, which is

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Speaker 4: right around to an average team in the prem City.

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Speaker 4: With their injury situation and with the World Cup situation,

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Speaker 4: could be playing a makeshift back line. We're going to

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Speaker 4: see the likes of Phil Foden playing a full ninety.

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Speaker 4: I also think this is a match you're gonna see.

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Speaker 4: Pep doesn't love to use all of his subs, but

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Speaker 4: I think this is the kind of match where you're

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Speaker 4: going to say, hey, can you give me forty five.

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Speaker 4: We'll get you off at half, We'll get the other

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Speaker 4: guy forty five.

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Speaker 3: We know you both want to play in the World Cup.

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Speaker 4: We know you're both on your teams, whether it's Grealish Fhoten,

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Speaker 4: you know, Gundwan and whatnot and De Bruyna. But this

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Speaker 4: is still a pretty good Brentford team who can take

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Speaker 4: advantage on set pieces if they get any. I think

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Speaker 4: this is a good good spot to take Brentford. I

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Speaker 4: took the plus two and a quarter to Foal in

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Speaker 4: the app. I also will be sprinkling some money line.

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Speaker 4: Expect high variants in these kind of weekends. So yes,

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Speaker 4: you've got me on one of these anti City money lines.

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Speaker 4: Yeah said, you'll probably just roll.

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Speaker 1: Up and yeah, exactly, health, but that's the other you

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Speaker 1: know you're running that risk right like City. Just Pep

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Speaker 1: says we're going to get a lead in the first

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Speaker 1: thirty minutes and nurse it from there, And I think

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Speaker 1: that's kind of how Bjay is angling here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know, even regardless of spot, you know,

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Speaker 2: obviously with you know, the only two guys for City,

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Speaker 2: like you mentioned, it's gonna be Holland and Read Maraz

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Speaker 2: are basically the only two regular starters that are not

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Speaker 2: going to the World Cup. So I'd imagine Pep's just

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Speaker 2: going to go handbreak City here, like like you mentioned, Michael,

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Speaker 2: if they get ahead, I think they're just gonna put

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Speaker 2: a stranglehold on possession. Brentford is obviously happy to say

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Speaker 2: in a low block and just try to try to counter,

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Speaker 2: you know, even when they face each other off face

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Speaker 2: each other both times last season very very low event

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Speaker 2: type matches. Both both matches were under two and a

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Speaker 2: half expected goals created and City, you know, I think

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Speaker 2: early on in the season we were like, hey, Pep

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Speaker 2: is playing a lot more aggresive, he's playing a lot

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Speaker 2: more open. I think he was trying to get more

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Speaker 2: space for Holland look to counter a little more. But

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Speaker 2: he over the past eight or so matches has really

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Speaker 2: put the stranglehold back on Possession and has gone back

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Speaker 2: to what has won City, you know the best the

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Speaker 2: past few titles. You know, City has has a sequence

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Speaker 2: time of sixteen seconds, they're averaging five and a half

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Speaker 2: passes per sequence and they have a direct speed of

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Speaker 2: one like all of that not only leads the Premier League,

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Speaker 2: but it's top in all of Europe's big five leagues.

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Speaker 2: Brentford this season, defensively, though, has performed a well against

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Speaker 2: the Big six, like the only lot of one expectable

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Speaker 2: to United, one point five to Arsenal and point nine

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Speaker 2: to Chelsea a few weeks ago. And you also look

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Speaker 2: at you know, these are two low events type teams.

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Speaker 2: You know, Brentford if you take away penalties, Brentford's matches

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Speaker 2: are only averaging two point four to three expected goals

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Speaker 2: and City is only a two point four to six,

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Speaker 2: so under three and a half. You know, it's only

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Speaker 2: minus one five, which I think is a fantastic price

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Speaker 2: given the spot, given how City has been able to

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Speaker 2: control games. You know, you saw that with the Lester

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Speaker 2: match as well, and you know the Fulham match obviously

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Speaker 2: a red card made the circumstances a little different. Also, no,

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Speaker 2: you know, no can Salo, he's on a ren card suspension.

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Speaker 2: So this is I mean, this is handbreak snooze fest City.

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Speaker 2: It's very similar. I believe to the Lester match. So

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Speaker 2: I like hunder three and a half goals of minus

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Speaker 2: one o five and.

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Speaker 4: Of course Brentford correlated to the under in this match,

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Speaker 4: but I do worry a little bit about the City defense.

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Speaker 4: If you're not totally focused, that's when New Tennessee lapses

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Speaker 4: in concentration and mistakes and you know, you're a little

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Speaker 4: late to the pressure and Brentford gets in behind, or

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Speaker 4: you're a little late to you know, get stuck in,

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Speaker 4: or you don't want to get stuck in because you're

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Speaker 4: worried about getting injured. Those are the kind of situations

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Speaker 4: where it's a little bit concerning. The Bees also are

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Speaker 4: eighth and next few percent piece. City has been a

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Speaker 4: little bit weaker defensively defending set pieces. It's been a

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Speaker 4: problem for them. Could be an angle where Brentford gets

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Speaker 4: on the board and I think one would be enough

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Speaker 4: for me to feel very good about my plus two

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Speaker 4: and a quarter here.

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Speaker 3: So yep, Bees time. We said this like two weeks ago,

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Speaker 3: and here we are.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, back on the Bees, Back on the Bees, Back

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Speaker 1: on the Bees. Let's go to the South coast now

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Speaker 1: where Bourne Myth are hosting Mighty Everden again. They just

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Speaker 1: hosted Everdon this midweek in the EFL Cup. Everden just

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Speaker 1: the change side. I think they were eleven change nine

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Speaker 1: changes to the to the starting lineup for that one

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Speaker 1: born with one for one their plus one seventy five

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Speaker 1: home underdogs here Everyton plus one fifty the draws plus

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Speaker 1: two twenty five. The Bournemouth offense. The attack is starting

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Speaker 1: to click. They're generating over one expected goal every so often.

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Speaker 2: Just pretty far.

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Speaker 1: They've come pretty far considering where they were to start

185
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Speaker 1: the season. But uh, I don't think that they can

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Speaker 1: take advantage of this Everton defense. I do worry a

187
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Speaker 1: little bit about where Connor Cody's head is going to

188
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Speaker 1: be at. He'll be off to the World Cup most likely. Hey,

189
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Speaker 1: James Tarkowski should be joining him though that should be

190
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Speaker 1: at England center back pairing. The of course, Jordan Pickford

191
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Speaker 1: for Everyden will be the England number one spoiler that

192
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Speaker 1: Jordan Pickford two hundred and one to win the Golden

193
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Speaker 1: Ball gets thrown out at Our in one of our

194
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Speaker 1: preview pots. Anyways, I think it's Everyding or nothing here.

195
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Speaker 1: I think that Bourne mith like it's they're just not

196
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Speaker 1: I don't think they're going to create enough. I think

197
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Speaker 1: everydence should have a little bit of success. Enough success

198
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Speaker 1: in the in the middle of the field with a

199
00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:46,920
Speaker 1: woebe Gana and Onana, they should be able to dominate.

200
00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:48,719
Speaker 1: I don't know if the number is good enough, though,

201
00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:50,880
Speaker 1: bj what do you have? Michael?

202
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Speaker 2: Did you see the lineup that Everyton played against Bourne? Myth?

203
00:09:55,040 --> 00:09:58,079
Speaker 2: It was actually pretty decent. Obviously they didn't play their

204
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Speaker 2: usual midfielders, but they are in Mape and Gordon up

205
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Speaker 2: top and Michael, Keene and Mina and Holgate was a

206
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Speaker 2: bad but like.

207
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Speaker 1: That, I mean it was me and his first game back,

208
00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:08,160
Speaker 1: it was Keane's first game back.

209
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Speaker 3: And are great players or now didn't start anybody?

210
00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:15,640
Speaker 2: They didn't start any of their good players either, and

211
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Speaker 2: they just put four goals pass And like enough, is

212
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Speaker 2: Jordan Pickford actually gonna play in this match? Or does

213
00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:22,520
Speaker 2: salth Gate say, hey rest him? And is a Vegavich time?

214
00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:25,480
Speaker 1: Hey Begavich is he's He's got a couple of wins

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Speaker 1: in his pocket already this season. And look it's a

216
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Speaker 1: revenge spot.

217
00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:30,840
Speaker 3: I immediate revenge.

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Speaker 2: I don't hate soccer. I don't hate to look at

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Speaker 2: a Bournemouth team total like over one and a half

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Speaker 2: over two and a half at chasing a big price here,

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Speaker 2: say what you put in the doc because I said

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Speaker 2: over three and a half twenty two to one. They

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Speaker 2: just scored four goals against them. I mean, why not?

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Speaker 2: Right like Evertson actually played a half a decent lineup.

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Speaker 2: I understand it was in the midfield, but I mean

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Speaker 2: this Boorneman team just finished at a crazy rate. I

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Speaker 2: think we at some point, I think I just have

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Speaker 2: to to for it. They stink to bend the knee

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Speaker 2: and say, you know what, you're the best finishing team

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Speaker 2: in the world. We got to throw out XTG. It

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Speaker 2: doesn't matter with you. You just score on every single

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Speaker 2: counter attack. It doesn't matter. So maybe ride the lightning

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Speaker 2: one last time. I mean, no other players are really

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Speaker 2: going to the World Cup, so.

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Speaker 1: They're all going to be on the beach. They're all

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Speaker 1: going to be on the beach.

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Speaker 2: Yeah no, it's I mean, it's a past me and

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Speaker 2: maybe just you know, a look at that's something that

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Speaker 2: literally just happened four days ago. I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I guess the rusty Michael Keen and a rusty Yerry

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Speaker 1: Mina guys, working their way back from injury. Come on,

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Speaker 1: draw a line through it Toffees baby.

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Speaker 2: Jamal Low, Anthony Joe Rothwell, Ben Pearson, the they're all dominating.

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Speaker 1: That's all right. Let's talk about Let's talk about a

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Speaker 1: different south Coast team and a different Merseyside team. Liverpool

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Speaker 1: mightus four hundred hosting Saints Southampton eight to one to draw.

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Speaker 1: Here is plus by fifty. Ralph Hasson Huddle no longer

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Speaker 1: the manager at Southampton.

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Speaker 2: It is I couldn't have waited until Christmas time and

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Speaker 2: just kind of slip on Dar.

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Speaker 1: I kind of appreciate that they didn't make him wait throughout.

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Speaker 3: They should have let him have one more match.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he would have beat Liverpool. Would So they bring

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Speaker 1: in uh, what's his name from Luton town? Jones? Jones

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Speaker 1: from from dirty Luton and uh, are we gonna see

256
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Speaker 1: a new manager bounce?

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Speaker 2: Perhaps?

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Speaker 1: I think this is the type of spot where what

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Speaker 1: does what what does Liverpool like have going for them

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Speaker 1: to say, oh, I feel comfortable laying minus four hundred

261
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Speaker 1: or or the correlated bets up of that against the

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Speaker 1: Southampton team with a new manager.

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Speaker 2: Uh.

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Speaker 1: We already saw a new manager bounce with Brighton at

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Speaker 1: Liverpool where they drew three three. I think the number

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Speaker 1: is fine. It's it's not that exciting on Southampton, but

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Speaker 1: it's it's got to be Saints or nothing here with

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Speaker 1: people on players on Liverpool all either heading to the

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Speaker 1: World Cup or uh, you know, upset that they didn't

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Speaker 1: make it, like Andy Robertson or Robbie Bobby Formino. Does

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Speaker 1: it get selected for Brazil? Maybe maybe Bobby. For Meino

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Speaker 1: hat trick is a decent prop bet because he's he's

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Speaker 1: gonna be ticked off that he's not going to Qatar,

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Speaker 1: Anthony anything. Liverpool Southampton nothing for me here.

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Speaker 4: Uh, Liverpool were not particularly impressive at Spurs. I thought

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Speaker 4: Spurs team for the I thought even then, you know,

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Speaker 4: the second half of the first half, I thought Spurs

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Speaker 4: grew into the game pretty well. It was the dumb

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Speaker 4: mistake by Eric Dyer doing Eric Dyer things that costs

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Speaker 4: Tottenham the second goal.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, Liverpool still has some flaws.

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Speaker 4: Like I thought Spurs played one of their better halves

283
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Speaker 4: of the season in the second half at home against Liverpool.

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Speaker 4: Didn't get the result. Of course, kolis Sepsi comes on

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Speaker 4: just immediately assists, but h yeah, Liverpool still have a

286
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Speaker 4: ton of issues. I have no interest in backing them here.

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Speaker 4: It would be Saints or nothing for me. If we

288
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Speaker 4: get a flat two, I'm in on the Saints. I

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Speaker 4: don't think we're going to get a flat.

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Speaker 2: Two, so I'm probably gonna pass here on one thing

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Speaker 2: I'll say about the new manager and we'll get to

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Speaker 2: this after we get a World Cup. But there is

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Speaker 2: not a more drastic change in tactics of what Southampton's

294
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Speaker 2: doing right now to what Nathan Jones did at Lowtontown.

295
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Speaker 2: Like they are extremely set, pieced, reliant, sit back in

296
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Speaker 2: a four to four two, not press, sit deep like

297
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Speaker 2: it's it's going to be a complete and utter change.

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Speaker 2: So maybe that's why they they brought him in like

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Speaker 2: right for the World Cup, so that I know a

300
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Speaker 2: lot of these teams are going to do training during

301
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Speaker 2: the World Cup if their players aren't in it, so

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Speaker 2: maybe we'll have them well drilled. He's obviously not gonna

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Speaker 2: be on the in the dugout for this one. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's uh, just a weird spot again for another team

305
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Speaker 2: like City. You know, Liverpool has a ton of guys

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Speaker 2: going to the World Cup, so it might be a

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Speaker 2: little bit more of a handbreak from clop I don't know,

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Speaker 2: it's just it's too hard. It's too hard to tell

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Speaker 2: right now.

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Speaker 1: Not even Force plus two ten at the City Ground

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Speaker 1: hosting Crystal Palace plus one thirty seven. The draw here

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Speaker 1: is plus two ten these odds, of course from our

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Speaker 1: friends at bet three six five. This is another one

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Speaker 1: where I don't really have much do. Tip my cap

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Speaker 1: to Steve Cooper. I told you guys, it's good manager.

316
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Speaker 1: They're playing better, they're in there, they have a better

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Speaker 1: in the relegation zone. Look at look at where they started,

318
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Speaker 1: look at where they started the season, and they get

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Speaker 1: the big win at Liverpool. They're they're trending in the

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Speaker 1: right direction like they were gonna get They're they're still

321
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Speaker 1: likely to get relegated. But I think that they're that's

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Speaker 1: the stud five, considering the team he's had the whole Yeah, the.

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Speaker 3: Whole point is to keep them in the league.

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Speaker 2: He might they're still in the NFL Cup.

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Speaker 3: To me, they did be thought them today. To me,

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Speaker 3: they dominated that match.

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Speaker 1: UH Spurs forced and what they what are they three?

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Speaker 1: They're three points out from safety against UH.

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Speaker 4: One now whatever it is with so there's still three

330
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Speaker 4: points out. So yeah, they're sitting at the foot of

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Speaker 4: the table.

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Speaker 1: And they've had and they're one loss in their last four.

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Speaker 3: Yes, they theyre trending side.

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Speaker 2: They're better side against Brentford, uh last Saturday at home,

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Speaker 2: like they've played well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, they're trending up.

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Speaker 2: Like you know, if you look at what happened before,

338
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Speaker 2: it was really good. Well, they went through a really

339
00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:07,080
Speaker 2: really bad schedule right like they had to go to

340
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Speaker 2: Brighton they got completely dominated. Then they had they faced

341
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Speaker 2: Liverpool at home where they actually won the expected goals battle,

342
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Speaker 2: and then they had to go on the road to

343
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Speaker 2: Arsenal they got pummeled. But you look at the match

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Speaker 2: even before that, you know, they they lost to Wolves

345
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Speaker 2: and if you remember that match, there was you know,

346
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Speaker 2: two penalties Wolves hits theirs, not even Forrest missus theirs.

347
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Speaker 2: And that's the difference. So this team has been playing

348
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Speaker 2: much much better and I don't really think they should

349
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Speaker 2: be underdogs here against Crystal Palace. I think it should

350
00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:34,200
Speaker 2: be closer to a pick them because Palace, I mean,

351
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Speaker 2: the trend we saw from last season is just continued

352
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Speaker 2: onto this one. Like they're a minus five point three

353
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Speaker 2: expected goal differential away from home, that's that's bad. That's

354
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Speaker 2: that's close to as bad as they were last season.

355
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Speaker 2: And not Eam forrests you know, just not even looking

356
00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:53,040
Speaker 2: at expected goals, just actual goal differential. Nottingham Forrest away

357
00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:55,880
Speaker 2: from home has scored one goal and conceded nineteen, but

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Speaker 2: at home they only have a minus two goal differentials.

359
00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:02,960
Speaker 2: They just they are probably the biggest split team in

360
00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:05,639
Speaker 2: the Premier League. From that so I don't really think

361
00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:08,280
Speaker 2: they should be underdogs here, you know. Also you look

362
00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:09,879
Speaker 2: at it, you know, Nottingham Forest is one of the

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00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:12,200
Speaker 2: most efficient set piece teams in the Premier League. Well

364
00:17:12,359 --> 00:17:14,440
Speaker 2: Palace has had their issues for the last two seasons,

365
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Speaker 2: so I like the trees. John Obett a plus one

366
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Speaker 2: twenty five. I also have to mention for everybody out there,

367
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Speaker 2: you know, when we did our future segment, a lot

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00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:26,399
Speaker 2: of bottom at Christmas tickets. This is the last weekend

369
00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:29,800
Speaker 2: to cash those. I have a Southampton one and I

370
00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,320
Speaker 2: need not I need not for I need Liverpool to

371
00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:35,320
Speaker 2: beat Southampton, just doable. I need not Eam Force to

372
00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:41,600
Speaker 2: beat Crystal Palace, but I also need Wolves to beat Arsenal.

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00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:43,920
Speaker 2: So if any of our listeners want to uh send

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Speaker 2: me offers. It's only a twenty dollars ticket, but if

375
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Speaker 2: any of our listeners want to send me offers.

376
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Speaker 3: It was like twenty to one, wasn't it.

377
00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:53,720
Speaker 2: It's eight to one. It's not it's not that's terrible yet,

378
00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:56,520
Speaker 2: yeah it's terrible. Yeah, So it's if anybody wants it.

379
00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:59,920
Speaker 3: Like they, you weren't far I mean Saints, I mean they.

380
00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:02,200
Speaker 2: Won a couple of matches early on and that's and

381
00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:04,320
Speaker 2: they kind of just cruised from there. You know. The

382
00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:06,240
Speaker 2: Bournemouth match is the one that that put the knife

383
00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:08,920
Speaker 2: in the heart. So but yeah, no in this match,

384
00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:11,639
Speaker 2: I really you know, Forrest has been playing much better home,

385
00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:12,960
Speaker 2: a lot of their players are not going to the

386
00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:15,360
Speaker 2: World Cup out and now he's starting to really round

387
00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:17,880
Speaker 2: into form. So uh, this is a good spot for them.

388
00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:20,120
Speaker 2: So yeah, give me the trees drawn a bett plus

389
00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:20,760
Speaker 2: one twenty five.

390
00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:23,760
Speaker 1: Also, just remember last year when Steve Cooper, he came

391
00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:26,439
Speaker 1: into a team that was struggling, took a little bit,

392
00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:28,760
Speaker 1: and then they got better and better and better as

393
00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:30,119
Speaker 1: the season went on. And that was a team that

394
00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:32,440
Speaker 1: was all lone ease that he had to jail together.

395
00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:36,399
Speaker 2: And the January transpoint. It was right around the corner, Michael.

396
00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:39,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, they can get a couple of get a couple

397
00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:41,600
Speaker 1: more guys. They can get a couple more guys.

398
00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:43,359
Speaker 2: It's all a couple of guys, couple more guys. And

399
00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:45,000
Speaker 2: I haven'tund I haven't looked at it.

400
00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:46,560
Speaker 4: We should pull it up at some point, maybe talk

401
00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:48,200
Speaker 4: about the next pod when we come back from the break.

402
00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:52,280
Speaker 4: But they made twenty one signings, right, yep? How many

403
00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:54,960
Speaker 4: of those players have not touched the field?

404
00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:57,520
Speaker 2: That's a good that's a good question. I got to

405
00:18:57,560 --> 00:19:00,240
Speaker 2: be at least eight, right, or yeah, how many of

406
00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:02,879
Speaker 2: them played under two matches or so?

407
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:04,920
Speaker 4: Like, Yeah, it could be interesting to look at. I

408
00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:06,400
Speaker 4: think it's interesting to look at, fascinating.

409
00:19:07,920 --> 00:19:09,280
Speaker 3: I have nothing here, I have nothing here.

410
00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:09,520
Speaker 2: Yeah.

411
00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:12,040
Speaker 4: I project this a little under two and a half

412
00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:14,880
Speaker 4: for total, and I really want to play the under

413
00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:17,920
Speaker 4: but man, these forest unners have killed me this year.

414
00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:22,040
Speaker 4: And I think that the first one the number, I mean,

415
00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:24,679
Speaker 4: it's two and a half undermineus one forty no thanks,

416
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:27,840
Speaker 4: So it's a pass here for me. I Seebjay's point

417
00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:32,399
Speaker 4: about the trees, and I make this. I have palace

418
00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:34,800
Speaker 4: a slight favorite, not enough to get to the number

419
00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:36,560
Speaker 4: but not enough to play Palace or the Tree is

420
00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:39,960
Speaker 4: rather coming back either. I think it's interesting. You know,

421
00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:42,280
Speaker 4: somebody tweeted at me when Palace lost that game to

422
00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:45,080
Speaker 4: Chelsea and we're like, oh, it looks like the Palace.

423
00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:45,560
Speaker 3: Magic's run out.

424
00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:49,600
Speaker 4: And since then four wins, one draw, one loss, we're

425
00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:51,359
Speaker 4: back in the top half of the table and we

426
00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:54,879
Speaker 4: are sitting live for our top top half tickets despite

427
00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:56,920
Speaker 4: Palace being the worst team they were last year. Just

428
00:19:56,960 --> 00:19:58,000
Speaker 4: funny how that regression.

429
00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:01,119
Speaker 3: You know, they play worse but they're sitting higher and

430
00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:03,359
Speaker 3: ends up being basically the same thing that Brighton did

431
00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:03,920
Speaker 3: two years ago.

432
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:07,120
Speaker 2: The underlying metrics suck, but there's they're still in tenth place.

433
00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:12,399
Speaker 1: Uh, Tottenham, howkspurt minus one seventy five at home? This

434
00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:16,000
Speaker 1: is a tough one for Anthony his third favorite team, Tottenham.

435
00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:18,399
Speaker 1: It gets his second favorite team leads four to one. Uh.

436
00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:21,920
Speaker 1: The Peacock's hour on the road trust plus three thirty three. Yeah,

437
00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:24,400
Speaker 1: this is this is This game just makes me mad

438
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:26,280
Speaker 1: to look at honestly.

439
00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:30,600
Speaker 3: Why I think it's a good matchup? Well, can I

440
00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:33,560
Speaker 3: answer your question from I don't have any val why

441
00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:35,359
Speaker 3: I'm not going to pretend like I have value on leads.

442
00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:39,560
Speaker 2: Why does Why is Content playing Parasage and Knees as

443
00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:43,200
Speaker 2: a front two? Who would you prefer he play anybody

444
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:44,120
Speaker 2: other than a wingback?

445
00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:46,440
Speaker 3: Who would you name that person?

446
00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:48,560
Speaker 2: Putsuma there?

447
00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:52,840
Speaker 4: Somebody was a winger in a past life, like before

448
00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:54,479
Speaker 4: Antonio Conte made him a wing back.

449
00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:57,320
Speaker 3: He was a winger right but like at Byron, he

450
00:20:57,359 --> 00:20:58,160
Speaker 3: played like a winger.

451
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:05,240
Speaker 4: Somebody they don't Lucas Mora Nope, so injured, Kulaseevsky coming

452
00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:07,960
Speaker 4: off injury, so not quite one hundred percent fit. I

453
00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:10,640
Speaker 4: think he may start in this game, which which could

454
00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 4: turn Tottenham right back into the best team in the

455
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:12,720
Speaker 4: world again.

456
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:16,040
Speaker 3: But I I like leads a lot here.

457
00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:20,440
Speaker 4: I think Spurs are absolutely dying for the World Cup break.

458
00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:23,400
Speaker 4: They have played so many matches and that was evident today.

459
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:26,200
Speaker 4: I mean, Harry Kane started for some unknown reason at Forrest,

460
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:27,600
Speaker 4: but talk about dead.

461
00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:29,560
Speaker 3: They started Pasuma like.

462
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,480
Speaker 4: They started not quite full strength team, but close to it,

463
00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:36,000
Speaker 4: and they looked shot. And I think that all the

464
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:38,400
Speaker 4: teams in this league right now who need the break.

465
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:40,439
Speaker 3: It's Tottenham and of course a lot of their best

466
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 3: players are going to go to the World Cup and

467
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:45,160
Speaker 3: probably come back and still be dead. But at least

468
00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:46,639
Speaker 3: as far as this team goes, I think this is

469
00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:48,119
Speaker 3: a really bad spot for Spurs.

470
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 4: You have to think about like parasitic main focus, World Cup,

471
00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 4: Harry Kane, same thing. Those are probably the two guys

472
00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 4: who are going to start up top for Spurs here.

473
00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 4: Benton Kerr's got Uruguay lined up like, or Dyer wants

474
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:02,920
Speaker 4: to start for England, has a chance to do it.

475
00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:04,720
Speaker 2: Like.

476
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 4: There's all kinds of things here that are in play

477
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:09,080
Speaker 4: that I don't like from a Tottenham point of view

478
00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:10,600
Speaker 4: at all, So give.

479
00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:12,879
Speaker 3: Me leads plus one. The Peacocks look to be in

480
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:13,360
Speaker 3: good form.

481
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:15,440
Speaker 4: Look they have some you know, World Cup things too

482
00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 4: going on here, you know with Aaronson Christensen.

483
00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 1: Yeah it is the American Jesse Marsh gonna get a

484
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:24,960
Speaker 1: risk Tyler Adams and Aaronston.

485
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:27,360
Speaker 3: That's a good question.

486
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:28,560
Speaker 1: But but.

487
00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:33,080
Speaker 4: I still think that, you know, Varius favors the dog

488
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:37,240
Speaker 4: here and an unpotentially non favor non motivated favorite gets

489
00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 4: me the leads here. Look like I thought we'd get

490
00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:41,600
Speaker 4: a better number, but I get webout getting it with

491
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:43,800
Speaker 4: sewn out. That being said, I don't care I'll take

492
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 4: leads plus one and I'll feel pretty good about it.

493
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:50,640
Speaker 4: Incredible comeback win and as far as I know, Summerville

494
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:51,600
Speaker 4: will be starting for leads.

495
00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:54,479
Speaker 3: That's all they need. That's two goals right there minimum.

496
00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:56,480
Speaker 2: I mean, you could just play into the narrative here

497
00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:59,359
Speaker 2: and just bet Toddham when they fall behind, because that too.

498
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:02,080
Speaker 2: That's what's been happening with Tottenham, is that they just

499
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:03,720
Speaker 2: fall behind and then it's like, oh crap, we got

500
00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:05,280
Speaker 2: to kick it in the gear. We had to start attacking.

501
00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:07,280
Speaker 2: We can't just sit deep anymore. I mean, I went

502
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 2: and look just I was very curious. So like Tottenham

503
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:11,960
Speaker 2: when playing from an even game state is about a

504
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:15,640
Speaker 2: one point six ext she four per ninety. When playing

505
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:17,440
Speaker 2: from behind, they're up to about one point eight five.

506
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:20,120
Speaker 2: The flip side of that is leads. When they're playing

507
00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:21,800
Speaker 2: from an even game state, they're at one point five

508
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 2: to five expecta goles allowed for ninety. But when they

509
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:26,000
Speaker 2: play with the lead, now there is a small stample size.

510
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 2: They've only spent about one hundred and seventy one hundred

511
00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 2: and eighty minutes playing with the lead this season, but

512
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:35,960
Speaker 2: they are allowing that's only two nineties. They are allowing

513
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 2: to expected goals per ninety, So I think it behooves

514
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 2: you to just sit back, let leads score, let Jesse

515
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,880
Speaker 2: Marsh do some embarrassing celebration on the sideline, and then

516
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:49,280
Speaker 2: just take Tottenham live and then watch content on the

517
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:52,119
Speaker 2: sideline jump into somebody's arm, pop them.

518
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:54,480
Speaker 3: No, I'm saying it's wild that they've only led for

519
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:55,359
Speaker 3: one hundred and eighty minutes.

520
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, oh okay, yeah, God for a team that's in.

521
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 3: Thirteenth, I'm like, I ain't that good? Whoa whoa whoa positive?

522
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 3: Expect the goal difference in thirteenth west.

523
00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:08,280
Speaker 1: Ham even money at home hosting Leicester City running up

524
00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:10,879
Speaker 1: the table, get those Leicster title tickets. In speaking of

525
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:13,359
Speaker 1: last at Christmas, lest last at Christmas, bets, I had

526
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 1: forty to one on lesser that that just it was.

527
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:18,920
Speaker 3: It was what you need, you needed it to be

528
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:19,840
Speaker 3: last at Halloween.

529
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, last at Halloween would have been the last at

530
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:25,639
Speaker 1: Labor Day. Leicester City plus two eighty uh. Traveling to

531
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 1: west Ham, the draw here is plus to forty. Absolutely

532
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:35,119
Speaker 1: nothing for me here, absolutely nothing. Got no interest in

533
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 1: this one. Bj I I.

534
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:41,280
Speaker 2: Actually do like west Ham and plus one ten. It's

535
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 2: it's a good positive regression versus negative regression type match.

536
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:47,720
Speaker 2: You obviously west Ham, who's the big the only player

537
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:49,360
Speaker 2: that's really gonna be playing the World Cup. It's gonna

538
00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:53,160
Speaker 2: be Declan Rice Leicester. Tielman's is obviously going to be there.

539
00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 2: He's the main guy for Lester, but you know the

540
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:56,920
Speaker 2: Castana is going to be there for Belgium as well.

541
00:24:57,280 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 2: But you know, I mentioned this in the last part,

542
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 2: is that west Ham started off really badly defensively to

543
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,880
Speaker 2: begin the season. They had three horrible showings and since

544
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:07,000
Speaker 2: that point they've just been one of the best defensive

545
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:08,879
Speaker 2: teams in the Premier League. I mean, only Liverpool and

546
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:12,560
Speaker 2: United have created over one expected goal against them. Since

547
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 2: their third match of the season. They're allowing under point

548
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:18,919
Speaker 2: nine non penalty expected goals per ninety just six big

549
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:22,240
Speaker 2: scoring chants allowed since those first three matches. They've also

550
00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 2: underperformed offensively, like they're one of the biggest positive progression

551
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:27,239
Speaker 2: candidates offensively just twelve goals off of a little over

552
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 2: seventeen expected and from a matchup perspective, the teams that

553
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 2: Lester does well against, you know, when they're not running

554
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 2: crazyly hot offensively. I'll get that. In the second is

555
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 2: that they love teams to come up and press them.

556
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,359
Speaker 2: They like to play an open game. They have, you know,

557
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:43,440
Speaker 2: great ball progressors that can play well through pressure, like

558
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:48,080
Speaker 2: their third and offensive pass per defensive action. But David Moyes,

559
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 2: I mean, he's just sitting in a low block like

560
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,440
Speaker 2: West Ham is the lowest pressing team in the Premier League.

561
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 2: Like they have no problem conceding possession. Here to Lester,

562
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:58,040
Speaker 2: who has been pretty possession dominant despite being at the

563
00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:00,720
Speaker 2: bottom end of the table. But the thing about it

564
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:04,919
Speaker 2: is Lester is just running ridiculously well offensively right now.

565
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 2: Since September fourth, Lester has scored seventeen goals off of

566
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:11,879
Speaker 2: ten point seven expected and there, like I mentioned this

567
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:15,200
Speaker 2: last week, their average shot distance is eighteen point six yards.

568
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,919
Speaker 2: That's second longest in the Premier League only to Manchester United.

569
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 2: They also lead the Premier League with eight goals from

570
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 2: outside the box off of two point three expected. It's

571
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 2: just not sustainable, mat it's yeah, And I mean they've

572
00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 2: created the second fewest big scoring chances. So and then finally,

573
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:31,359
Speaker 2: as we know from the past two years is Lester

574
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 2: is one of the worst set piece defenses in the

575
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:35,440
Speaker 2: Premier League. Well, west Ham's top five in terms of

576
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:39,480
Speaker 2: efficiency on set pieces. So I like the Hammers. A

577
00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:40,920
Speaker 2: lot of their players aren't going to the World Cup.

578
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:43,159
Speaker 2: They'll be motivated for this. They're sitting in fifteenth in

579
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 2: the table, like they need points to make their ascendency

580
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:48,920
Speaker 2: up to the table. So I like them at plus

581
00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:51,120
Speaker 2: one ten. I project them at minus one ten.

582
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:53,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think of all the matches you look at,

583
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:59,640
Speaker 1: this one kind of feels like the most normal, kind

584
00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:03,120
Speaker 1: of like there's not as much coopla with like World

585
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:04,879
Speaker 1: Cup stuff going on, and.

586
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:06,680
Speaker 2: Both of them need it right, Like these are yeah

587
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:09,440
Speaker 2: that have historically the last you know, five or so

588
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:11,320
Speaker 2: season or you know, three or four seasons. I guess

589
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:13,960
Speaker 2: as west Ham was near relegation a few seasons ago,

590
00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:18,119
Speaker 2: but they've been near the top seven or eight teams

591
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 2: and now they're sitting, you know, closer to relegation, so

592
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:23,359
Speaker 2: they need points to potentially get back up in the

593
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:24,480
Speaker 2: top ten. Yeah.

594
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:26,680
Speaker 4: I make west Ham the better team, and I do

595
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:28,199
Speaker 4: show a little bit of value on them, So if

596
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 4: I do bet this, it'll end up being the Hammers.

597
00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 4: And I agree with Bjay that from a regression point

598
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 4: of view, west Ham continues to be better than their

599
00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:37,359
Speaker 4: table position indicates, and they'll probably be moving up the table.

600
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 3: But I just this lesser team. The matter's magic is

601
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 3: really frustrating.

602
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:46,639
Speaker 1: Ever since the darts. He's a big darts guy and

603
00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:48,920
Speaker 1: once the darts came to Leicester he just got red

604
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:53,200
Speaker 1: hot and the English squat and he's putting himself in

605
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 1: the shop window for a move to Newcastle, I mean.

606
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,200
Speaker 2: South Kate did say he's looking at Madison potentially for

607
00:27:58,280 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 2: the England squad.

608
00:27:59,000 --> 00:27:59,919
Speaker 3: So I would take him.

609
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 1: I would take them.

610
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:03,920
Speaker 4: They are second longest shot distance, which J mentioned, which

611
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 4: I want to double down and mention again, because that

612
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 4: is incredibly It's a pretty sticky indicator of how how

613
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:12,120
Speaker 4: good your chances you're getting, and what that means about

614
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 4: how good your attack ceiling can be. You could be

615
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 4: a competent attack who relies on longer shots, but you

616
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 4: can't be like a good attack who relies on a

617
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:22,480
Speaker 4: lot of long shots. And the same reason I have

618
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:25,400
Speaker 4: my doubts about United, the same reason that I'm still

619
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 4: very doubt.

620
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 3: Doubts about their attack.

621
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:32,240
Speaker 2: Oh man, who could ever have doubts about United on

622
00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:32,920
Speaker 2: this podcast.

623
00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:33,919
Speaker 1: Not me.

624
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 3: Pale in comparison to bj who did Castle United fad

625
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 3: last week?

626
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:44,000
Speaker 1: I did finally that he's up to like for this reason,

627
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:48,280
Speaker 1: let's talk about Newcastle United. Are they going to win

628
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 1: the league? It's between them and Lester Who's going to

629
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:57,840
Speaker 1: catch the city? Uhs Arsenal. Look, I hate to tell

630
00:28:57,880 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 1: you this, you know, I hate to tell you when

631
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 1: I said on the preseason pod that Arsenal might be

632
00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:02,360
Speaker 1: better than time.

633
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:03,400
Speaker 3: And look how far we've come.

634
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:06,960
Speaker 1: It's November, We've got this is a long season. Yeah,

635
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 1: I'm not getting at this point last you know, last year,

636
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:15,040
Speaker 1: what were we looking at Newcastle plus one thirty Chelsea

637
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 1: two to one. The draw here is plus two forty.

638
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:22,960
Speaker 1: All three of us are in agreement here. It's it's

639
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 1: got to be. It's got to be Newcastle. The way

640
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 1: Chelsea's going, Chelsea's squad is, I mean, they might not.

641
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 2: Even show up. I could see like everyone, everybody's going

642
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 2: to World Cup except for Yeah, just like crazy.

643
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 3: They're in shambles.

644
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's like exactly, it's like such a team

645
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 1: in flux. Now you got everybody getting ready to go

646
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 1: to Katar. They already watched one of their teammates. Two

647
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 1: of their teammates get hurt and miss the World Cup

648
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 1: through those injuries for their team. Like if I'm if

649
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:56,920
Speaker 1: I'm a Chelsea, if I'm Raheem Sterling, I'm just.

650
00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,240
Speaker 2: Like Christian POOLI stich, please don't plan this.

651
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 1: Yeah I'm not, but it might be poolisted because everyone

652
00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:02,800
Speaker 1: else is going to bag out.

653
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:06,480
Speaker 4: Obambayan can play, but yeah, Obama, that would that would

654
00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 4: be the equivalent of playing with ten men.

655
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 1: Meanwhile, Newcastle, Yeah, they've got a lot of World Cup

656
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:13,080
Speaker 1: four touches, four touches.

657
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 2: Nothing personal at bombing Young? Yeah personal?

658
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 3: Was it the Gabrielle tweet?

659
00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:22,240
Speaker 2: It was he signed for Chelsea. He said, hey Arsenal,

660
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 2: it's nothing personal. Well, nothing personal, bomb Young, four touches.

661
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:29,920
Speaker 3: He's cooked and Chelsea's attack is cooked.

662
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 4: And I have Newcastle rated just as good as Chelsea

663
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 4: at the moment, and uh that that's you know, depending

664
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:40,360
Speaker 4: on how I messed with priors from last season, Newcastle

665
00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:43,240
Speaker 4: is better than Chelsea and uh, I think that that

666
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 4: the boat will continue to head in those directions. So

667
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:48,680
Speaker 4: I like Newcastle here on the money line. I just

668
00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:51,719
Speaker 4: think this is a really good atline play. Like if

669
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 4: you're looking to chase a payment minus one and a

670
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 4: half great spot at home.

671
00:30:56,000 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 3: Newcastle have been dominant at home.

672
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:00,520
Speaker 4: You know, We've talked about that, I think like every

673
00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 4: week at this point, about how just how good they've been,

674
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 4: and that was against the non Big six sides. Chelsea's

675
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 4: attack is the equivalent of a non Big six side

676
00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 4: right now, the way that they're not producing away from

677
00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:15,680
Speaker 4: anywhere for that matter. But yeah, Newcastle have allowed five

678
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:19,240
Speaker 4: point eight expected goals at home this season in seven

679
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 4: matches and they've only conceded five. They've produced fourteen and

680
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 4: a half expected That puts them as the third best

681
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 4: home team in the league this year. They have been

682
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 4: very good away from home, which is interesting, but at

683
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 4: least in front of those home fans.

684
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 3: Chelsea absolute disaster, terrible spot.

685
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:38,680
Speaker 4: Give me Newcastle at home and I'm probably gonna sprinkle

686
00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:39,680
Speaker 4: some minus one and a half two.

687
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:41,720
Speaker 1: Yeah that sounds fun. Yeah.

688
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:43,960
Speaker 2: I mean the Arsenal match on Sunday was just like

689
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 2: a you know, similar to the Brighton match, just a

690
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:48,320
Speaker 2: culmination of what we've been talking about with Chelsea for

691
00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 2: a long time. I mean they Arsenal completely dominated them,

692
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 2: like Chelsea only had zero point three expected goals, like

693
00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 2: Arsenal tilted the field on them sixty six percent. Chelsea

694
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 2: committed ten two. Yeah, and Chelsea committed ten high turnovers

695
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:06,000
Speaker 2: Like that is very concerning and who's to say Newcastle

696
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:08,719
Speaker 2: can't do the exact same thing that Arsenal did to them.

697
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 2: I mean, Newcastle is one of the best pressing teams

698
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:12,400
Speaker 2: in the Premier League, Like they have the second most

699
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 2: high turnovers per ninety, they're top six and tilt in

700
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:18,200
Speaker 2: the field. Like Anthony mentioned, they're incredible defensively. And even

701
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:21,200
Speaker 2: if we're looking at expected goal differential, I mean Chelsea's

702
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:24,120
Speaker 2: sitting at minus point twenty five per ninety, Newcastle's up

703
00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:26,400
Speaker 2: at point six to eight plus point six eight per ninety.

704
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:30,000
Speaker 2: Like Newcastle has been almost a full goal better than

705
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 2: Chelsea this season. And man, can you know, if Brighton

706
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 2: didn't have such a great manager right now, I'd be like,

707
00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:39,800
Speaker 2: can Potter just go back to Brighton and find the

708
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:43,200
Speaker 2: magic again? Because like he like, it's been really, really bad,

709
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:45,520
Speaker 2: and like we already mentioned, with the injuries, like they're

710
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 2: they're down there their best two full backs right now,

711
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:50,400
Speaker 2: they're down in goal Conte like all of their players

712
00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:52,040
Speaker 2: are about to go to the World Cup. They like

713
00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 2: Anthony Manch with Tottenham a team that is absolutely begging

714
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 2: for the World Cup break is Chelsea right now? And Newcastle?

715
00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 2: I mean, who's the guy that's going to the World

716
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 2: Cup there? It's pretty much Marus and and that's about it.

717
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:07,120
Speaker 1: Like Wilson, maybe con Trier, Karen Trippier, Tripier is.

718
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:10,920
Speaker 2: Going to be heard now that obviously the Reech James

719
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 2: and Walker or heard. But the two guys it's going

720
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:16,400
Speaker 2: to be Chelsea's entire roster going to the World Cup.

721
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 2: They again, like I agree with Anthony, like you want

722
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:21,960
Speaker 2: to chase a price, a big price here. It's yeah,

723
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 2: it's I love Newcastle at plus one forty. I think

724
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:29,480
Speaker 2: they can do exactly what Arsenally did Chelsea last Sunday.

725
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, And like you said, I think this is a

726
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 1: team that is begging for the break and it's a

727
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 1: manager begging for it right. Yeah, he finally gets to

728
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 1: have some time to work with the three players on

729
00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:41,680
Speaker 1: the squad that.

730
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 2: Already go into the World Cup and Obama and Georgino Brojia.

731
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:50,160
Speaker 1: It's a it's a it's a good spot for Newcastle.

732
00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:52,960
Speaker 1: By the way, quick trivia question, Anthony, before I go

733
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 1: back to you, I don't know if you remember a

734
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 1: couple of months ago when Newcastle was doing that thing

735
00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 1: where they just kept drawing and I was like, how

736
00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:01,400
Speaker 1: many wins does Newcastle have? And at the time they

737
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:03,520
Speaker 1: were like one, four and one. Do you have any

738
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:05,560
Speaker 1: losses they have the season one?

739
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:10,840
Speaker 2: So Liverpool when stoppage time, Yeah, yeah, stoppage time and

740
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:14,240
Speaker 2: they had a red card from Joe Lenton. Dumars didn't

741
00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:16,160
Speaker 2: play in Allen Saint Maximon didn't.

742
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:19,839
Speaker 1: Play, Anthony. Uh, you want to close this one out

743
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:21,680
Speaker 1: for us before we move on to our final three

744
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:22,759
Speaker 1: matches on the Premier League.

745
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:25,319
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's kind of more big picture about Chelsea. I mean,

746
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:27,800
Speaker 4: we talked preseason about how they had two major concerns

747
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 4: with their depth problems and they got a bunch of injuries.

748
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 4: Of those two positions, they're cooked right now. And that

749
00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:35,879
Speaker 4: doesn't mean they're gonna be cooked forever, but like their

750
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:39,919
Speaker 4: fullbacks are cooked in terms of injuries and issues there

751
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:42,719
Speaker 4: and their center midfields. They didn't address it enough in

752
00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 4: the off season and they're paying for it.

753
00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:49,800
Speaker 1: Wolverhampton plus four seventy five at home, hosting Bjay's Arsenal

754
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:53,080
Speaker 1: top of the table for now, Here come Newcastle, Here

755
00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:56,520
Speaker 1: come Leicester minus one eighty eight. Arsenal are the Jaws

756
00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 1: plus three twenty Another one where I'm just gonna pass

757
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:05,200
Speaker 1: because like tempted by the spot with Wolves because of

758
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:08,719
Speaker 1: the World Cup looming. But it does seem like, you know,

759
00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:11,719
Speaker 1: for this Arsenal team seems to all be on the

760
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 1: same page and committed to the kind of to the cause.

761
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:18,800
Speaker 1: So of like the big squads, the big clubs with

762
00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 1: players going to the World Cup, they're the one that

763
00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:23,799
Speaker 1: kind of worries me the least, if that makes sense.

764
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 1: So I'm actually gonna pass here and take my shots

765
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:33,200
Speaker 1: on the other dogs like Brentford and Southampton rather than

766
00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 1: Wolverhampton BJ. What are your thoughts here on the Gunners?

767
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:40,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, because if you look at the Arsenal

768
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 2: squad right now, it's obviously a lot of guys where okay,

769
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:46,280
Speaker 2: if you truly sat down and asked them and said, okay,

770
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 2: what's more important right now? Like winning the World Cup

771
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 2: or winning the Premier League with Arsenal, Like honestly, like

772
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:54,480
Speaker 2: I don't think Gavroll has Us is going to start

773
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 2: up top for Brazil, Like if you ask Shaka, like truthfully,

774
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:00,440
Speaker 2: switch one's not gonna win the World Cup. Ghan is

775
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 2: probably gonna.

776
00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:04,759
Speaker 1: Get This is the way this is stands the World Cup.

777
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:06,520
Speaker 2: But right now Arsenal is in the middle of a

778
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 2: title race, like they are going to seriously but very

779
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:13,799
Speaker 2: very very very similarly to uh and they're also going

780
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:15,759
Speaker 2: to know, like, you know, whatever happens with City, like

781
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:17,200
Speaker 2: if they can actually be at the top of the

782
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:20,759
Speaker 2: table before the World Cup break. But I think very

783
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:22,960
Speaker 2: similarly with what we saw with Arteta, you know he's

784
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 2: been doing a lot, is that when Arsenal goes ahead,

785
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:28,320
Speaker 2: they just they put on the handbreak. They don't necessarily

786
00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:30,480
Speaker 2: control possession the way that City does, but they just

787
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:33,560
Speaker 2: sit in defensively and they be and then they're incredibly

788
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:35,920
Speaker 2: compact and very difficult to break down. So you're facing

789
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:37,719
Speaker 2: a Wolves team that shoots a ton from distance that

790
00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:39,840
Speaker 2: doesn't create a lot of big scoring chances that can

791
00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 2: obviously threaten the Arsenal final third. But as we talked

792
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:44,880
Speaker 2: about a ton of times, that Wolves just has no

793
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:48,960
Speaker 2: finishers right now, like they are bleeding with injuries, like

794
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:49,960
Speaker 2: they have nobody.

795
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 3: Up to goals.

796
00:36:50,239 --> 00:36:53,400
Speaker 2: Last weekend two goals last weekend. You know a lot

797
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:56,319
Speaker 2: of positive aggression, I guess, but yeah, I mean Wolves

798
00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 2: is still averaging under one expectacle per match. Like Arsenal's

799
00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:01,920
Speaker 2: the right now the second best defensive team in the

800
00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:05,400
Speaker 2: Premier League. So yeah, I like under two and half

801
00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:07,319
Speaker 2: goals at plus one twelve. I really don't think they

802
00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:10,360
Speaker 2: should be sitting at plus money. I think Arsenal's just

803
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:13,359
Speaker 2: gonna put on the handbrake, similar to what City's gonna

804
00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:15,960
Speaker 2: do against Brentford if they go ahead. Won nothing here.

805
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be a pretty low event type match.

806
00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:20,799
Speaker 2: So give me under two and a half goals at

807
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 2: plus one twelve.

808
00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:23,879
Speaker 1: Anthony, anything here?

809
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:24,960
Speaker 2: You know.

810
00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:27,279
Speaker 4: I joked last week I said, like Brighton Wolves, Brighton

811
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:29,360
Speaker 4: are playing so much more aggressive, like both teams to

812
00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:32,840
Speaker 4: score a great look like feels like Wolves.

813
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:34,360
Speaker 3: You know, we're gonna wait for the lineup.

814
00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 4: And then the lineup came out and actually wasn't terrible,

815
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:40,160
Speaker 4: you know, one good but like they had some semblance

816
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:42,959
Speaker 4: of a striker. With Hayani Chen starting, I think he'll

817
00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:44,959
Speaker 4: start again like I thought he was actually pretty lively

818
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:47,239
Speaker 4: and like I'm not gonna sit here and say that

819
00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:48,799
Speaker 4: Wolves attack is good, like I say every week when

820
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:51,040
Speaker 4: I talk about Wolves overs. But if you want to

821
00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 4: join me on the pain train, I likely to be

822
00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:54,440
Speaker 4: playing both teams to score here.

823
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:56,359
Speaker 3: I do think Wolves get on the board. I think

824
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:57,359
Speaker 3: Arsenal's a little flat.

825
00:37:57,840 --> 00:38:02,319
Speaker 4: Again, it's an overrated big six spot here Arsenal away

826
00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:05,560
Speaker 4: from home, a situation I looked to play against them.

827
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 3: We did at Saints a couple of weeks ago with

828
00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 3: the both teams to score. We're gonna do it again here.

829
00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:09,840
Speaker 1: Uh.

830
00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:11,359
Speaker 4: And if you want to join me on the pain train,

831
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 4: we'll be losing two nil and we'll hit the post.

832
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:18,000
Speaker 3: I think Wolves will hit the post in this game. Uh,

833
00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:21,719
Speaker 3: And then don't They'll create like zero point six two

834
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:25,560
Speaker 3: x g H point two of that will come off

835
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:28,839
Speaker 3: of Ruben Nevez pot shots from long range, but one

836
00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:31,800
Speaker 3: of them hit the post. But then I'll be like damn.

837
00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:34,560
Speaker 1: You know what's funny is is we talked about Arsenal like, oh,

838
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:36,400
Speaker 1: they're gonna have their eyes on the World Cup here, right,

839
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:40,760
Speaker 1: wo Wolves Wolves? Is everybody a Wolves place for Portugal?

840
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:43,680
Speaker 3: So it's you know that is somewhat true. It's like

841
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:46,400
Speaker 3: I can't believe bj just tried to say that the

842
00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:49,240
Speaker 3: players are more worried about it away day at Wolves

843
00:38:49,640 --> 00:38:50,800
Speaker 3: the World Cup will be.

844
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:52,360
Speaker 2: I mean, I mean they're in the middle of a

845
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:55,040
Speaker 2: title race, Anthony. You get up for the players, get

846
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:56,840
Speaker 2: up for this match, and then we'll go to the World.

847
00:38:56,640 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 3: Cup, right, I mean, I'm sure they'll be up for it.

848
00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:00,400
Speaker 1: I think gonna win.

849
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:02,440
Speaker 2: But that was more my point. I wasn't gonna try

850
00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 2: and say that they they care about more than the

851
00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:05,759
Speaker 2: World Cup. Just trying to say I was trying to

852
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:06,880
Speaker 2: make the point that they're going to be up to

853
00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:08,480
Speaker 2: this more than like basically.

854
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:13,600
Speaker 1: Class media tactic where if he's trying to pump his

855
00:39:13,760 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 1: team up through media.

856
00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:18,880
Speaker 3: Right, if it's a team I bet on, I think

857
00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:21,319
Speaker 3: they're going to be super motivated this weekend. The team

858
00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:24,239
Speaker 3: I bet against, I think they don't give a ship.

859
00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:25,759
Speaker 3: They see where we're at here.

860
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:29,040
Speaker 2: Yep, that's pretty much what we're doing. Speaking of the

861
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:31,440
Speaker 2: World Cup, Welcome to Wonder Goal, the soccer betting podcast

862
00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:32,400
Speaker 2: from the Action Network.

863
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:35,240
Speaker 3: We rely on vibes and not data.

864
00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:38,920
Speaker 1: Speaking of the World Cup, the two best managers in

865
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:44,160
Speaker 1: the world facing off at the AMEX deserve Uniamory Brighton

866
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:46,920
Speaker 1: Minus one twenty hosting Aston Villa three.

867
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:49,359
Speaker 2: That was awesome the drus plus two eight.

868
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:53,600
Speaker 1: We love uni Amory on this show. We love un

869
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:54,520
Speaker 1: Amory on the show.

870
00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:57,920
Speaker 3: The new Champions League model like is going to potentially

871
00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:00,879
Speaker 3: give us more EPL teams and the in the league.

872
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:03,480
Speaker 3: I just want all my favorite managers to like, give

873
00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:06,400
Speaker 3: me deser, gimme deserbe in the Champions League, give me

874
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:08,400
Speaker 3: Unmory in the Champions.

875
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:12,799
Speaker 4: Europa League, like I need yeah, Gerrard wherever he ends up,

876
00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:14,759
Speaker 4: put him in the Champions League, Like I need all

877
00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:18,239
Speaker 4: these managers going to soccer prison because I am like

878
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:20,200
Speaker 4: the Champions League asall came out, it is so boring

879
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:21,000
Speaker 4: from a betting point.

880
00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:23,600
Speaker 3: We'll get to that in February. But like, man, I

881
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:25,160
Speaker 3: miss him, I miss betting be real.

882
00:40:25,800 --> 00:40:27,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, well that's why we love Unaimory on the show.

883
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:30,880
Speaker 1: Last year, Anthony left at p J and I when

884
00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:33,080
Speaker 1: we were getting towards the business end of the group

885
00:40:33,120 --> 00:40:35,400
Speaker 1: stage and we're like, there's there's something to this this

886
00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:37,440
Speaker 1: via real side. They were two hundred to one at

887
00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:37,759
Speaker 1: the time.

888
00:40:38,560 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 3: It was pre tournament. When you said that, no, was

889
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:40,400
Speaker 3: it too?

890
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:40,719
Speaker 2: Was it?

891
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:43,960
Speaker 1: Whatever? It was? And the Yellow Submarine gave us a

892
00:40:44,040 --> 00:40:46,840
Speaker 1: run to the semi final with Unai Emory at the

893
00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:52,560
Speaker 1: Helm and now he's managing Aston Villa. They looked really

894
00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:57,719
Speaker 1: good against Manchester United. They're freed from the Steven Gerrard shackles.

895
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:06,040
Speaker 1: Uh point expected goals, yeah, but they got let's uh

896
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:10,359
Speaker 1: So Anyways, I like Villa here. They're three to one,

897
00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:12,920
Speaker 1: they're on the road. They're taking on a Brighton side

898
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 1: that's going well, uh after they weren't going well. So

899
00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:18,799
Speaker 1: I think it's a good cell high spot against our

900
00:41:18,840 --> 00:41:24,719
Speaker 1: boy Deserve and his Seagulls. It's two in a row

901
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:27,400
Speaker 1: for for Brighton. I don't know what to read it

902
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:30,440
Speaker 1: to it really, other than I think that they're probably

903
00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:32,120
Speaker 1: just going to play the rest of the season out

904
00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:35,520
Speaker 1: like they were under Potter. It's just kind of kind

905
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:39,759
Speaker 1: of continue. Obviously, Troussard and Pascal Grocer are two of

906
00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:42,520
Speaker 1: the best players ever and they continue to play that way.

907
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:44,640
Speaker 2: Brighton's got a lot of guys going to the World Cup.

908
00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:48,719
Speaker 2: Like we have to say, quite a few guys that

909
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:51,920
Speaker 2: are playing Villa. It doesn't really happening, right, I mean

910
00:41:51,920 --> 00:41:54,880
Speaker 2: there's a few, but yeah, may Cash who you know,

911
00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:58,279
Speaker 2: now switch nationalities to Poland. But yeah, I mean I

912
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:00,680
Speaker 2: think the price is correct here. Like I I agree

913
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 2: fair price.

914
00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:05,360
Speaker 4: You know, I can make an argument for both the

915
00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:07,120
Speaker 4: under and the over. And then I pulled up my

916
00:42:07,200 --> 00:42:09,320
Speaker 4: number and it was right around the number. So I said, okay,

917
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:10,279
Speaker 4: I'm not going to.

918
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:11,960
Speaker 3: Force a total play. He because I've been getting crushed

919
00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:14,560
Speaker 3: on PL totals this year. Everything's going over and I'm

920
00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:17,720
Speaker 3: more tend to bed unders, so it's a bad time.

921
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:20,640
Speaker 1: To be to be me. Let's wrap up the Premier

922
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 1: League slate with Fulham three to one at home hosting

923
00:42:24,120 --> 00:42:27,320
Speaker 1: BJ's Manchester United odds on minus one twenty on the

924
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:31,319
Speaker 1: road to draw here plus two seventy five. Hey, tim

925
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:32,600
Speaker 1: Reim going to the World now.

926
00:42:32,719 --> 00:42:34,239
Speaker 2: Another team that has a lot of guys going to

927
00:42:34,360 --> 00:42:42,279
Speaker 2: hold up Matrovich Anthony Robinson, Tim Reim Leno's not gonna

928
00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:47,319
Speaker 2: be in goal for Germany, right, No, okay, sorry, I'm

929
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:51,919
Speaker 2: just like trying to think through Mbabu for Switzerland. Quite

930
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:55,920
Speaker 2: a few guys for Fulham, yeah, and quite.

931
00:42:55,760 --> 00:42:58,800
Speaker 1: A few for Manchester United as well. It needs to

932
00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:05,400
Speaker 1: be said, despite your best some guys, despite your best efforts,

933
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:07,759
Speaker 1: I got nothing on this one either. I think, like

934
00:43:08,040 --> 00:43:10,840
Speaker 1: I said before there, I think the matchup here is

935
00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:14,840
Speaker 1: a little suspect for Fulham. Not the type of team

936
00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:18,560
Speaker 1: I want to play against Man United because they their

937
00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:22,239
Speaker 1: defense is just so leaky. So no thank you here

938
00:43:23,080 --> 00:43:24,040
Speaker 1: anything for you, BJ.

939
00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:27,400
Speaker 2: I mean the market is now foinally deciding to price

940
00:43:27,880 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 2: United correctly, right because uh, you know, they were plus

941
00:43:31,080 --> 00:43:33,040
Speaker 2: one ten against aston Bill on the road last week.

942
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:36,359
Speaker 2: Then they go on the road here to Fulham, They're

943
00:43:36,440 --> 00:43:40,239
Speaker 2: only around even money. So I you know, I think

944
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:43,840
Speaker 2: the market is actually finally right on United because you know,

945
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:46,960
Speaker 2: I've asked in Villa rated as a much better team

946
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:50,080
Speaker 2: than in Fulham. Right now, Yeah, just another match that

947
00:43:51,160 --> 00:43:52,560
Speaker 2: I don't really know what to make of. You know,

948
00:43:52,640 --> 00:43:55,279
Speaker 2: Fulham allows a ton of big scoring chances the United team.

949
00:43:55,320 --> 00:43:57,200
Speaker 2: Whenever they win, they just win one nothing and the

950
00:43:57,280 --> 00:44:00,239
Speaker 2: expected goals is always one to one. Uh finally cost

951
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:02,719
Speaker 2: them this past week. You know you can't run one

952
00:44:02,760 --> 00:44:06,640
Speaker 2: to one unexpected goals and keep winning forever. So yeah,

953
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:09,520
Speaker 2: I mean, you know Fulham might play you know, you're

954
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:11,960
Speaker 2: probably gonna sit deep. They're gonna dare United to break

955
00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:15,000
Speaker 2: them down. They're gonna look the counter United, you know,

956
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:18,239
Speaker 2: Casameiro is gonna be in there. Obviously. He's been a big, big,

957
00:44:18,360 --> 00:44:20,800
Speaker 2: big part of why United has improved offensively, you know,

958
00:44:20,840 --> 00:44:25,960
Speaker 2: stopping that uh transition attack. So I don't know, you know,

959
00:44:26,040 --> 00:44:27,960
Speaker 2: I think the numbers right, So I'm passing.

960
00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:30,880
Speaker 4: EJ passing United game almost makes it almost makes me

961
00:44:30,920 --> 00:44:33,280
Speaker 4: want to fade them, do it almost.

962
00:44:33,440 --> 00:44:35,000
Speaker 3: But the numbers is not good enough for me either.

963
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:36,920
Speaker 3: I thought we'd get like plus three quarters here and

964
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:37,600
Speaker 3: we did not.

965
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:39,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I thought we get United. I think United be

966
00:44:39,440 --> 00:44:42,040
Speaker 2: like minus one thirty, like minus one thirty five in

967
00:44:42,080 --> 00:44:43,680
Speaker 2: the spot. Now they're only I'm at, you know, minus

968
00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:45,400
Speaker 2: one ten. I guess they're pricing in the World Cup stuff,

969
00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:46,320
Speaker 2: But yeah, I don't know.

970
00:44:46,719 --> 00:44:51,200
Speaker 1: All right, let's move quickly through the other European leagues

971
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:53,960
Speaker 1: that are playing La Liga is not We thank them

972
00:44:54,040 --> 00:44:57,480
Speaker 1: for that. But before we do that, a reminder that

973
00:44:57,520 --> 00:45:00,200
Speaker 1: Wonder Goal is presented by Bet three six five, the

974
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:02,799
Speaker 1: world's favorite sportsbook brand. To sign up with promo code

975
00:45:02,840 --> 00:45:05,400
Speaker 1: action to get BET three six fives exclusive sign up

976
00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:07,640
Speaker 1: offer in New Jersey and Colorado. Bet one dollar on

977
00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:11,800
Speaker 1: any game, get two hundred free BJ What do you

978
00:45:11,880 --> 00:45:13,520
Speaker 1: have for us in Bundesliga.

979
00:45:14,680 --> 00:45:16,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like Freiburg plus one ten at home against

980
00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:19,560
Speaker 2: our boys from Unyan Berlin. You're starting to see kind

981
00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:21,680
Speaker 2: of a lot of the negative aggression that Unyon Berlin

982
00:45:21,840 --> 00:45:24,759
Speaker 2: was due for. Like they got pasted five nothing by Leverkusen.

983
00:45:24,800 --> 00:45:27,240
Speaker 2: They drew with Augsburg today despite when of the expected

984
00:45:27,280 --> 00:45:30,320
Speaker 2: goals battle pretty heavily in this Freiburg team. You know,

985
00:45:30,360 --> 00:45:33,880
Speaker 2: they had a bad showing today against ARBI Leipzig, but

986
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:37,000
Speaker 2: they're sitting near the top four in the Bundesliga. They're

987
00:45:37,040 --> 00:45:40,480
Speaker 2: a very very good set piece team. Obviously Berlin very

988
00:45:40,480 --> 00:45:43,840
Speaker 2: good set pit set piece defense. But for me, you know,

989
00:45:43,920 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 2: I have Freiberg projected at minus one oh nine, so

990
00:45:47,239 --> 00:45:50,080
Speaker 2: at a price of plus one ten going up against

991
00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:55,520
Speaker 2: Unyan Berlin, who continues to just run ridiculously hot. I mean,

992
00:45:55,560 --> 00:45:57,440
Speaker 2: we have to talk about it that they've slipped out

993
00:45:57,440 --> 00:46:01,520
Speaker 2: of first place. Now unfortunately Byron has taken over first place.

994
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:04,879
Speaker 2: But sha yeah, but you know, Freiburg has been plus

995
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:09,040
Speaker 2: four actually differentialpin even so I think the price of

996
00:46:09,080 --> 00:46:11,640
Speaker 2: plus one ten is good enough for me to play Freiburg.

997
00:46:11,960 --> 00:46:15,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, Freiburg and Unyan are basically neck and neck in

998
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:17,840
Speaker 1: the table now, but you got to give credit to Unan.

999
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:21,680
Speaker 1: They're expected goals differential at least at fb REF is

1000
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:25,000
Speaker 1: now in the black. Yeah, congratulators.

1001
00:46:25,120 --> 00:46:27,399
Speaker 2: They're averaging under one expected goal match and they're allowing

1002
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:28,680
Speaker 2: under one expected goal for match.

1003
00:46:28,760 --> 00:46:30,759
Speaker 1: There, that's the budge for you.

1004
00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:32,719
Speaker 2: They're in the wrong league. I think I think it

1005
00:46:32,760 --> 00:46:33,040
Speaker 2: would be.

1006
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:36,360
Speaker 4: I think it says a lot about the Bundesliga that

1007
00:46:36,560 --> 00:46:39,440
Speaker 4: the team like Friburg is a plus a quarter goal

1008
00:46:39,560 --> 00:46:43,600
Speaker 4: for ninety yeah, I kinda and Frankfurt.

1009
00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:44,080
Speaker 3: Plus a half goal.

1010
00:46:44,160 --> 00:46:47,400
Speaker 4: A lot of that was a couple of outliers with reds,

1011
00:46:47,440 --> 00:46:51,600
Speaker 4: but it's it's it's bleak in the Bundesliga right now.

1012
00:46:51,800 --> 00:46:54,239
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take a shot with Shaka at fourteen to

1013
00:46:54,320 --> 00:46:58,439
Speaker 1: one against Byron, just gonna just going to lean into

1014
00:46:58,520 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 1: it there. Obviously, Saudi Omane got hurt, putting a damper.

1015
00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:08,480
Speaker 2: On should give a listeners our little little inside scoop

1016
00:47:08,520 --> 00:47:12,759
Speaker 2: on what happens with Saudi Omanne. Oh yeah, I think

1017
00:47:12,760 --> 00:47:14,560
Speaker 2: it's fun I think it's funny. I mean, we recorded

1018
00:47:14,600 --> 00:47:18,040
Speaker 2: our podcast and we talked up Saudiomanni for Golden Boots,

1019
00:47:18,080 --> 00:47:21,439
Speaker 2: everything about Senegal. Literally twenty minutes before he got hurt

1020
00:47:21,480 --> 00:47:24,880
Speaker 2: for Bayern. So tune into our group a preview that

1021
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:27,320
Speaker 2: will be re recorded at some point.

1022
00:47:28,080 --> 00:47:32,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, shaka for me fourteen to win, Anthony. What do

1023
00:47:32,640 --> 00:47:33,920
Speaker 1: you have in the Bundesliga.

1024
00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:37,239
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna you know, there's a couple of picks

1025
00:47:37,280 --> 00:47:39,919
Speaker 4: that I like here. I'm keeping the volume generally pretty

1026
00:47:39,960 --> 00:47:43,880
Speaker 4: small across the board because of the uncertainty here, and

1027
00:47:44,040 --> 00:47:46,600
Speaker 4: you know, just kind of not really sure what to expect,

1028
00:47:46,760 --> 00:47:48,759
Speaker 4: you know, I took basically took the mid weeks late off.

1029
00:47:49,840 --> 00:47:51,480
Speaker 4: I think there's a lot of uncertainty and so do

1030
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:53,360
Speaker 4: you know, don't go unloading your bank roll this weekend.

1031
00:47:53,360 --> 00:47:55,480
Speaker 4: I think it's a good way to live. But mine's

1032
00:47:55,480 --> 00:47:57,480
Speaker 4: gets I track Frankfurt at home, and I do like

1033
00:47:57,560 --> 00:48:01,359
Speaker 4: the under here under two and a half is plus money,

1034
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:04,880
Speaker 4: and I do like that Mine is still excellent defensively

1035
00:48:05,680 --> 00:48:06,759
Speaker 4: preventing big scoring chances.

1036
00:48:06,800 --> 00:48:08,439
Speaker 3: They've also been excellent defensively at home.

1037
00:48:08,880 --> 00:48:11,719
Speaker 4: They get a nine track Frankfurt team that I just

1038
00:48:11,840 --> 00:48:13,759
Speaker 4: have a hard time buying into this idea that they're

1039
00:48:13,800 --> 00:48:16,080
Speaker 4: the third best team in the Bundesliga. They're sitting in forth,

1040
00:48:16,120 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 4: sitting in third with an electric plus seven expected goal difference.

1041
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:24,200
Speaker 4: But again, the attack has run super super well twenty

1042
00:48:24,239 --> 00:48:26,640
Speaker 4: three expected goals thirty one to four, and then the

1043
00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:30,600
Speaker 4: defense has run really poorly and you don't expect them

1044
00:48:30,719 --> 00:48:33,759
Speaker 4: to have bad goalkeeping, yet they've gotten it this year.

1045
00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:37,200
Speaker 4: I am generally a believer in Kevin Trapp, so I'm

1046
00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:39,600
Speaker 4: not going to just assume like he's due to regress

1047
00:48:39,640 --> 00:48:42,920
Speaker 4: positively as a shot stopper, and so I like the

1048
00:48:43,000 --> 00:48:46,880
Speaker 4: under here. I think Frankfurt will struggle to create chances

1049
00:48:46,920 --> 00:48:49,439
Speaker 4: against this Mine's team. Frankfurt does have a very low

1050
00:48:49,520 --> 00:48:51,680
Speaker 4: average shot to since they do create a good number

1051
00:48:51,680 --> 00:48:54,080
Speaker 4: of big scoring chances, but I think they'll struggle on

1052
00:48:54,160 --> 00:48:56,520
Speaker 4: the road of minds here, who does still have excellent

1053
00:48:56,520 --> 00:48:58,680
Speaker 4: defensive numbers. Mine's attack has fallen off a bit, and

1054
00:48:58,719 --> 00:49:00,799
Speaker 4: it's the main reason the mind's magic has fallen off.

1055
00:49:00,760 --> 00:49:03,160
Speaker 1: For us this season. Yeah, those top four tickets, they

1056
00:49:03,200 --> 00:49:06,839
Speaker 1: looked really good on opening day, but then not good

1057
00:49:07,120 --> 00:49:12,040
Speaker 1: after that. Syria, you guys are on the same side BJ.

1058
00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:17,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, Napoli udinesse under three goals at minus one ten,

1059
00:49:18,040 --> 00:49:22,240
Speaker 2: you know, essentially to two offenses that have run pretty

1060
00:49:22,680 --> 00:49:24,920
Speaker 2: hot this season. You know, Essa has been twenty two

1061
00:49:24,960 --> 00:49:28,000
Speaker 2: goals off around eighteen expected Napoli thirty four goals off

1062
00:49:28,120 --> 00:49:31,680
Speaker 2: twenty seven expected ten. That tends to regress as the

1063
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:34,440
Speaker 2: season goes along. You know, Napoli is also you know,

1064
00:49:34,600 --> 00:49:36,839
Speaker 2: we've mentioned many times they're one of the best defensive teams,

1065
00:49:36,880 --> 00:49:41,680
Speaker 2: not only in Syria but throughout throughout eight Europe. You know,

1066
00:49:41,760 --> 00:49:44,839
Speaker 2: they're they're allowing under one expectacle per match their second

1067
00:49:45,120 --> 00:49:47,600
Speaker 2: in Italy an expected threat like they do a fast,

1068
00:49:47,680 --> 00:49:51,640
Speaker 2: fantastic job stopping opposing counter attacks. Udinesse is a team

1069
00:49:51,800 --> 00:49:56,680
Speaker 2: that you know, was was a big positive aggression candidate

1070
00:49:56,760 --> 00:49:58,800
Speaker 2: for a long time. They were undervalued in the market

1071
00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:01,200
Speaker 2: and then it's just funny how these things flip. You know,

1072
00:50:01,400 --> 00:50:04,160
Speaker 2: this year now they're overperforming like crazy. They're a plus

1073
00:50:04,239 --> 00:50:07,560
Speaker 2: eight goal differential and only a plus two expected, so

1074
00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:12,839
Speaker 2: just another Syria a inflated total, so like under three

1075
00:50:12,840 --> 00:50:14,160
Speaker 2: goals at minus one ten in that match.

1076
00:50:14,760 --> 00:50:16,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree. I mean, it wasn't that long ago.

1077
00:50:16,200 --> 00:50:19,160
Speaker 4: We were betting Napoli overs like I remember in Syria,

1078
00:50:19,360 --> 00:50:22,680
Speaker 4: and then there was a Champions League over that I bet.

1079
00:50:23,239 --> 00:50:24,880
Speaker 3: Unfortunately cashed early in the.

1080
00:50:25,280 --> 00:50:28,000
Speaker 4: Champions League against well, the first two games of the

1081
00:50:28,080 --> 00:50:31,040
Speaker 4: Champions League, and then now I'm looking at totals that

1082
00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:32,920
Speaker 4: are like a half goal to a goal higher than

1083
00:50:32,960 --> 00:50:34,080
Speaker 4: they were earlier in the season.

1084
00:50:34,440 --> 00:50:35,840
Speaker 3: I think this is a classic example.

1085
00:50:36,239 --> 00:50:38,239
Speaker 4: These are teams played in the spring this totally you know,

1086
00:50:38,280 --> 00:50:40,200
Speaker 4: two and a half, two and three quarters. Now you're

1087
00:50:40,239 --> 00:50:42,120
Speaker 4: getting a flat three minus one ten to the under

1088
00:50:42,640 --> 00:50:44,399
Speaker 4: I like the under here. I think you're gonna see

1089
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:46,600
Speaker 4: Napoley's attack will cool off, not just in finishing but

1090
00:50:46,680 --> 00:50:49,240
Speaker 4: in production. I mean, I don't expect Napley to continue

1091
00:50:49,280 --> 00:50:52,720
Speaker 4: to be as elite going forward as they've been creating

1092
00:50:52,719 --> 00:50:53,959
Speaker 4: almost two expected.

1093
00:50:53,600 --> 00:50:57,640
Speaker 3: Goals a game. I don't foresee that continuing. So I'm

1094
00:50:57,680 --> 00:50:59,400
Speaker 3: going to play against both attacks lit bit here go.

1095
00:50:59,520 --> 00:51:03,360
Speaker 1: Under league still up and running, and you both have

1096
00:51:04,400 --> 00:51:08,799
Speaker 1: something for us. In France, Anthony, you go first.

1097
00:51:09,800 --> 00:51:13,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, pure PSG fade totally blind plus two and a

1098
00:51:13,160 --> 00:51:15,800
Speaker 4: half on Augier. They're not a very good team, but

1099
00:51:15,880 --> 00:51:19,120
Speaker 4: I don't expect any type of uh, you know, full

1100
00:51:19,160 --> 00:51:22,440
Speaker 4: effort or full go from the three top players Neymar

1101
00:51:23,320 --> 00:51:28,520
Speaker 4: and bape MESSI have much bigger goals and things coming

1102
00:51:28,600 --> 00:51:29,400
Speaker 4: up in the future.

1103
00:51:29,719 --> 00:51:31,000
Speaker 3: Horrendous spot for.

1104
00:51:31,080 --> 00:51:34,799
Speaker 4: PSG, and I also wonder about PSG after the World Cup.

1105
00:51:34,840 --> 00:51:36,080
Speaker 4: You know, we'll have to see how it plays out.

1106
00:51:36,520 --> 00:51:42,520
Speaker 4: But Messi nearing the end of his career. Theymar chance

1107
00:51:42,600 --> 00:51:44,439
Speaker 4: to get to finally get the big you know, World

1108
00:51:44,480 --> 00:51:47,720
Speaker 4: Cup trophy. You know what is their situation and Bape

1109
00:51:47,800 --> 00:51:49,839
Speaker 4: of course the constant rumors of that he's leaving.

1110
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 3: I think there could be some problems for.

1111
00:51:51,200 --> 00:51:54,919
Speaker 4: PSG in the Champions League going forward, but we'll see

1112
00:51:54,920 --> 00:51:56,719
Speaker 4: what the With the draw they got, it's gonna.

1113
00:51:56,480 --> 00:51:56,960
Speaker 3: Be very fun.

1114
00:51:58,400 --> 00:51:59,400
Speaker 1: BJ will be.

1115
00:52:00,080 --> 00:52:02,840
Speaker 2: Yeah. I like Troy plus half a goal on the

1116
00:52:02,920 --> 00:52:05,800
Speaker 2: road at Breast. There's just really not a lot between

1117
00:52:05,840 --> 00:52:08,239
Speaker 2: these two teams, right, I mean, obviously, Troy is up there,

1118
00:52:08,440 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 2: you know, in thirteenth place in the table, while Breast

1119
00:52:10,600 --> 00:52:14,200
Speaker 2: is the nineteenth. But they're both have essentially the same

1120
00:52:14,280 --> 00:52:18,440
Speaker 2: expected goal differential. But Breast is a home favorite, just

1121
00:52:18,600 --> 00:52:22,960
Speaker 2: another line that's just priced too high. First, breastwat team

1122
00:52:23,000 --> 00:52:24,320
Speaker 2: that I've been fading quite a bit. So I'm just

1123
00:52:24,360 --> 00:52:26,600
Speaker 2: going to continue to fade and give me Troy plus

1124
00:52:26,640 --> 00:52:27,040
Speaker 2: half a goal.

1125
00:52:27,719 --> 00:52:32,360
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about our favorite underdogs for this

1126
00:52:32,520 --> 00:52:36,040
Speaker 1: slate coming to you the weekend before the World Cup.

1127
00:52:36,080 --> 00:52:37,959
Speaker 1: Things could get weird. This is the week we're gonna

1128
00:52:38,040 --> 00:52:40,640
Speaker 1: hit and it's a doozy beach a you can go first.

1129
00:52:41,040 --> 00:52:44,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, Noningham Forrest plus two twenty at home against Crystal

1130
00:52:44,360 --> 00:52:47,000
Speaker 2: Palace a good sell high spot here for Crystal Palace.

1131
00:52:47,040 --> 00:52:50,080
Speaker 2: We're coming off a road win over west Ham last week.

1132
00:52:50,160 --> 00:52:52,040
Speaker 2: That was the first time this season that they have

1133
00:52:52,160 --> 00:52:55,400
Speaker 2: won the expected goal differential on the road. They have

1134
00:52:55,480 --> 00:52:58,080
Speaker 2: a minus five point three expected gold efferential overall away

1135
00:52:58,080 --> 00:53:00,360
Speaker 2: from sell Hurst Park, which is just a trend that

1136
00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:03,719
Speaker 2: continued on from last season. Nottingham Forest has actually put

1137
00:53:03,760 --> 00:53:06,360
Speaker 2: in some good performances when they don't have to face

1138
00:53:06,760 --> 00:53:09,840
Speaker 2: you big sides. They ran into they ran into Arsenal,

1139
00:53:09,880 --> 00:53:12,040
Speaker 2: they ran into Liverpool, they ran into Brighton. But you

1140
00:53:12,080 --> 00:53:14,120
Speaker 2: look last week they were the better side against Brentford.

1141
00:53:14,719 --> 00:53:16,520
Speaker 2: They're at home where they play much better. They're only

1142
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:19,000
Speaker 2: on minus one expected older frenchill at home versus minus

1143
00:53:19,040 --> 00:53:23,120
Speaker 2: eight on the road. They're also second most efficient set

1144
00:53:23,200 --> 00:53:25,640
Speaker 2: piece team in the Premier League, while Crystal Palace is

1145
00:53:25,680 --> 00:53:27,760
Speaker 2: one of the worst defensively. So give me the trees

1146
00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:28,440
Speaker 2: plus two twenty.

1147
00:53:28,920 --> 00:53:30,640
Speaker 1: I've got a big smile on my face because I've

1148
00:53:31,440 --> 00:53:35,080
Speaker 1: been waiting a couple of weeks to do this, to

1149
00:53:35,200 --> 00:53:38,920
Speaker 1: throw this team in this parlay, that's Brentford. There's highest

1150
00:53:39,040 --> 00:53:44,560
Speaker 1: nineteen to one traveling to Man City on Saturday morning.

1151
00:53:45,840 --> 00:53:49,960
Speaker 1: It's really really hard to imagine City being fully up

1152
00:53:50,000 --> 00:53:54,879
Speaker 1: for this one hosting Brentford a week before the World

1153
00:53:54,920 --> 00:53:57,920
Speaker 1: Cup starts. Everyone on the team outside of Holland and

1154
00:53:58,120 --> 00:54:01,640
Speaker 1: Mares are going to kata are. I mean, Holland could

1155
00:54:01,760 --> 00:54:03,959
Speaker 1: maybe do it on his own. That's the risk we're taking.

1156
00:54:04,080 --> 00:54:07,040
Speaker 1: But the number on a team that will give you

1157
00:54:07,360 --> 00:54:10,480
Speaker 1: their best effort. They do it every week, weekend, week out.

1158
00:54:10,560 --> 00:54:13,359
Speaker 1: The Bees give an honest effort. For Thomas Frank who

1159
00:54:13,400 --> 00:54:18,560
Speaker 1: will undoubtedly have pointed to the spot is a really

1160
00:54:18,640 --> 00:54:21,200
Speaker 1: really good time to be playing Man City. So I

1161
00:54:21,320 --> 00:54:25,400
Speaker 1: trust Brentford to get the job done here at a

1162
00:54:25,480 --> 00:54:29,799
Speaker 1: huge number nineteen to one. Anthony Yeah.

1163
00:54:29,880 --> 00:54:37,719
Speaker 4: Friday afternoon, Bundesliga wraps with Gladbach Dortmund the Battle of Brussia.

1164
00:54:38,480 --> 00:54:40,000
Speaker 3: Not actually what it's called, but I like to call

1165
00:54:40,040 --> 00:54:40,200
Speaker 3: it that.

1166
00:54:41,280 --> 00:54:44,560
Speaker 4: The same region in Germany they're from, glodbox at home,

1167
00:54:45,040 --> 00:54:48,880
Speaker 4: and Dortmund continues to be an absolute paper tiger of

1168
00:54:49,000 --> 00:54:50,360
Speaker 4: a proportions this season.

1169
00:54:50,840 --> 00:54:52,880
Speaker 3: I have this line pretty.

1170
00:54:52,640 --> 00:54:55,040
Speaker 4: Close to a toss up, so giving me glodbox plus

1171
00:54:55,080 --> 00:54:57,320
Speaker 4: two fifteen at home. Happy to take them on the

1172
00:54:57,400 --> 00:54:59,759
Speaker 4: money line. Think they have a real good shot to

1173
00:54:59,760 --> 00:55:03,480
Speaker 4: win this and uh and send Dortmund into the World Cup.

1174
00:55:03,560 --> 00:55:05,719
Speaker 3: Break outside the top six.

1175
00:55:07,040 --> 00:55:10,080
Speaker 1: If you want to wrap all three of these teams

1176
00:55:10,200 --> 00:55:12,640
Speaker 1: in a Harley.

1177
00:55:13,080 --> 00:55:15,799
Speaker 2: Build that bank roll before the World Cup starts, it's

1178
00:55:15,840 --> 00:55:17,240
Speaker 2: your World Cup bankroll overall.

1179
00:55:17,320 --> 00:55:19,440
Speaker 1: This will do it right here, two hundred and one

1180
00:55:20,040 --> 00:55:22,440
Speaker 1: to one. I feel really.

1181
00:55:22,280 --> 00:55:23,960
Speaker 2: Sorry about it. This is gonna be right before the

1182
00:55:24,000 --> 00:55:27,600
Speaker 2: World Cup. Good about it, and everybody'll forget about it.

1183
00:55:29,760 --> 00:55:31,400
Speaker 1: All right. Let's talk about our favorite bets in the

1184
00:55:31,480 --> 00:55:33,880
Speaker 1: Premier League before we get out of here, Anthony, you

1185
00:55:33,960 --> 00:55:34,719
Speaker 1: can go first.

1186
00:55:36,760 --> 00:55:40,600
Speaker 4: Leads plus one leads, leads leads. We all love leads

1187
00:55:41,600 --> 00:55:44,000
Speaker 4: minus one twenty on the road at Tottenham. Do I

1188
00:55:44,080 --> 00:55:46,320
Speaker 4: think this is a huge value add relative to the

1189
00:55:46,360 --> 00:55:48,479
Speaker 4: market price. No, because I think the market has finally

1190
00:55:48,560 --> 00:55:50,960
Speaker 4: caught up to Tottenham's problems. The market is also pricing

1191
00:55:51,040 --> 00:55:54,080
Speaker 4: in Tottenham's injury issues. No human son for this match.

1192
00:55:54,360 --> 00:55:59,040
Speaker 4: Tottenham starting parasage next to Kane not great, but also

1193
00:55:59,040 --> 00:56:00,000
Speaker 4: the backup options are worse.

1194
00:56:01,120 --> 00:56:02,840
Speaker 3: Kula Sewski maybe back here. But I think this is

1195
00:56:02,880 --> 00:56:03,719
Speaker 3: a good matchup for Leads.

1196
00:56:03,800 --> 00:56:06,920
Speaker 4: Leads looking to go into the international break on a

1197
00:56:07,000 --> 00:56:10,279
Speaker 4: continued high note after back to back wins, including in

1198
00:56:10,360 --> 00:56:14,080
Speaker 4: dramatic fashion by Somerville Miracles. But really this is about

1199
00:56:14,080 --> 00:56:17,279
Speaker 4: Tottenham who have continued to struggle, continue to struggle to

1200
00:56:17,320 --> 00:56:20,680
Speaker 4: create chances outside of set pieces. They've been heavily relyant

1201
00:56:20,719 --> 00:56:24,759
Speaker 4: on those. I understand the matchup issue in theory because

1202
00:56:24,800 --> 00:56:26,879
Speaker 4: Leeds will play a high line, Spurs can get in behind,

1203
00:56:26,960 --> 00:56:28,600
Speaker 4: but this is not a Spurs team that's been good

1204
00:56:28,600 --> 00:56:31,439
Speaker 4: at doing that really recently. I think Leads can press,

1205
00:56:31,480 --> 00:56:35,400
Speaker 4: I think they can have effectiveness, challenging Spurs ball progression.

1206
00:56:35,800 --> 00:56:37,720
Speaker 4: The center backs are not going to be good passers

1207
00:56:37,760 --> 00:56:39,520
Speaker 4: for Tottenham, the ones they're playing, at least with Dire

1208
00:56:39,560 --> 00:56:40,880
Speaker 4: and potentially Sanchez starting.

1209
00:56:41,239 --> 00:56:42,919
Speaker 3: So I like Leeds plus one on the road.

1210
00:56:43,280 --> 00:56:46,480
Speaker 1: I'm taking a scavilla. They're three to one on the

1211
00:56:46,560 --> 00:56:50,640
Speaker 1: road at Brighton. We love Deserve, but we love Unai

1212
00:56:50,680 --> 00:56:53,960
Speaker 1: Emory maybe a little bit more. And Brighton's defense has

1213
00:56:53,960 --> 00:56:56,120
Speaker 1: been a little leaky. Six goals allowed in their last

1214
00:56:56,160 --> 00:56:59,520
Speaker 1: three matches, one point four expected goals on average in

1215
00:56:59,640 --> 00:57:02,960
Speaker 1: that Spa And meanwhile, we know what the Villa defense

1216
00:57:03,080 --> 00:57:06,080
Speaker 1: can do. Six out of their last eight matches, Yes,

1217
00:57:06,160 --> 00:57:08,879
Speaker 1: that includes a bunch with Steven Gerrard at the Helm

1218
00:57:08,920 --> 00:57:13,279
Speaker 1: Anthony's Boy, they've allowed less than one expected goal. They

1219
00:57:13,320 --> 00:57:16,800
Speaker 1: held Manchester United to an expected goal in a three

1220
00:57:16,840 --> 00:57:20,640
Speaker 1: to one victory with Unai Emery in the dugout. I

1221
00:57:20,760 --> 00:57:24,680
Speaker 1: expect that to continue at Brighton. I like the number

1222
00:57:24,920 --> 00:57:27,800
Speaker 1: three to one. I think that this team will steadily improve. Anthony,

1223
00:57:27,840 --> 00:57:29,720
Speaker 1: you were very high on this team coming into the season.

1224
00:57:29,840 --> 00:57:31,920
Speaker 1: All they needed was a good manager. They're going to

1225
00:57:32,000 --> 00:57:34,960
Speaker 1: get to those heights now that they have one. Unai Emory.

1226
00:57:35,120 --> 00:57:39,240
Speaker 1: We always trust in Uni bj take us into the

1227
00:57:39,280 --> 00:57:40,480
Speaker 1: World Cup with your favorite bet.

1228
00:57:40,960 --> 00:57:44,640
Speaker 2: Newcastle plus one forty at Saint James Park against Chelsea.

1229
00:57:45,400 --> 00:57:48,040
Speaker 2: The match last Sunday against Arsenal was just a culmination

1230
00:57:48,320 --> 00:57:51,320
Speaker 2: of how Chelsea has been playing under Graham Potter. They

1231
00:57:51,360 --> 00:57:53,760
Speaker 2: created just zero point three expected goals, they got the

1232
00:57:53,800 --> 00:57:56,560
Speaker 2: field tilted on them sixty six percent and they committed

1233
00:57:56,600 --> 00:57:59,800
Speaker 2: ten high turnovers. Newcastle can do the exact same thing

1234
00:58:00,000 --> 00:58:02,200
Speaker 2: at Chelsea what Arsenal did. Newcastle is one of the

1235
00:58:02,240 --> 00:58:05,600
Speaker 2: best pressing teams in the Premier League. They've been outstanding defensively.

1236
00:58:05,640 --> 00:58:08,080
Speaker 2: They have a plus point six y eight expected gold

1237
00:58:08,080 --> 00:58:11,040
Speaker 2: differential per ninety minutes, while Chelsea is sitting at minus

1238
00:58:11,160 --> 00:58:13,600
Speaker 2: point twenty five for the season. So Newcastle has been

1239
00:58:13,600 --> 00:58:16,360
Speaker 2: almost a full goal better than Chelsea and they're only

1240
00:58:16,400 --> 00:58:18,200
Speaker 2: sitting at plus one forty. And then you throw on

1241
00:58:18,560 --> 00:58:21,680
Speaker 2: top of that that really only a couple players from

1242
00:58:21,760 --> 00:58:23,720
Speaker 2: Newcastle are going to the World Cup. Runi gue Mars

1243
00:58:23,800 --> 00:58:25,200
Speaker 2: is the main one, but a couple other guys are

1244
00:58:25,240 --> 00:58:27,480
Speaker 2: still waiting for a call. While you look at Chelsea,

1245
00:58:27,560 --> 00:58:30,200
Speaker 2: their entire roster is going to the World Cup except

1246
00:58:30,280 --> 00:58:34,360
Speaker 2: for Georgino and Pierre mcabamaion. Oh and they're also still

1247
00:58:34,400 --> 00:58:37,160
Speaker 2: without their two main fallbacks reached James and Ben Chilwell,

1248
00:58:37,160 --> 00:58:38,760
Speaker 2: who are gonna be out for an extended period of time.

1249
00:58:38,880 --> 00:58:42,360
Speaker 2: So this is a great spot for Newcastle here at

1250
00:58:42,360 --> 00:58:44,800
Speaker 2: a great price of plus one forty against a Chelsea

1251
00:58:44,880 --> 00:58:47,720
Speaker 2: team that is absolutely begging for the World Cup break.

1252
00:58:47,800 --> 00:58:50,360
Speaker 2: So give me the Magpies plus one forty.

1253
00:58:50,880 --> 00:58:53,400
Speaker 1: All right. That wraps up this episode of Wonder Goal.

1254
00:58:53,560 --> 00:58:58,200
Speaker 1: A reminder Monday Groups A through D Monday Groups through

1255
00:58:58,400 --> 00:59:01,160
Speaker 1: H Tuesday, our favorite team and player futures. We'll also

1256
00:59:01,200 --> 00:59:04,080
Speaker 1: have a Team USA Deep Dive later next week and

1257
00:59:04,200 --> 00:59:08,560
Speaker 1: then get ready because the podcasts, the videos, the stories

1258
00:59:09,000 --> 00:59:11,640
Speaker 1: on Action network dot Com on the Action App are

1259
00:59:11,760 --> 00:59:13,440
Speaker 1: going to be coming fast and furious.

1260
00:59:14,200 --> 00:59:17,400
Speaker 2: As we had to mention the live show so you

1261
00:59:17,480 --> 00:59:20,120
Speaker 2: can tune into us every single day while the World

1262
00:59:20,160 --> 00:59:23,320
Speaker 2: Cup is going on, we will be breaking down every

1263
00:59:23,360 --> 00:59:26,120
Speaker 2: single match. You'll get to see our faces every single day.

1264
00:59:26,160 --> 00:59:28,320
Speaker 2: You're gonna be sick of us, and then you get

1265
00:59:28,360 --> 00:59:30,080
Speaker 2: a five day break and then it's Box.

1266
00:59:29,960 --> 00:59:32,800
Speaker 1: And then it's Box And to our listeners in Japan,

1267
00:59:33,000 --> 00:59:38,400
Speaker 1: football is coming and it's coming. Love you to either

1268
00:59:38,440 --> 00:59:41,440
Speaker 1: one of those places. For bj Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo,

1269
00:59:41,640 --> 00:59:43,480
Speaker 1: I'm Michael Leebuff, wishing you best of luck with all

1270
00:59:43,520 --> 00:59:46,840
Speaker 1: your bets this weekend. We'll see you in Qatar.