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Speaker 1: Day three with no permanent Speaker of the House and
Speaker 1: forty three days to a possible government shutdown. Welcome to
Speaker 1: the fastest show in politics. As the race for speaker
Speaker 1: gets underway in earnest, but the debate over funding the
Speaker 1: government is on ice because of all of this. We're
Speaker 1: joined ahead by Congressman Brad Sherman, the Democrat from California
Speaker 1: serves on Financial Services as well as the Foreign Affairs committees,
Speaker 1: and join those voting to remove Kevin McCarthy this week.
Speaker 1: He'll be with us in just a moment. New fundraising
Speaker 1: numbers out from the Republican campaign trail, Donald Trump out
Speaker 1: raising Ronda Santis by threefold, and some members of the
Speaker 1: RNC are now questioning whether to have any more debates
Speaker 1: at all. We'll talk about it all with our panel,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Politics contributor Republican strategist Rick Davis, joined today by
Speaker 1: Democratic analyst Alvin Jordan from Rock Solutions. Little Friday, as
Speaker 1: we call it around here, and not a lot has
Speaker 1: changed from this time yesterday as we consider the lack
Speaker 1: of motion on Capitol Hill when it comes to not
Speaker 1: only funding our government but finding another Speaker of the House.
Speaker 1: As we prepare to talk this out with Brad Sherman,
Speaker 1: we actually heard some advice from the other chamber. Republican
Speaker 1: leader Mitch McConnell loath to give advice to Kevin McCarthy,
Speaker 1: at least publicly during his tenure as speaker, and he
Speaker 1: clearly does not want to see this again.
Speaker 4: I have no advice the House Republicans except one. I
Speaker 4: hope whoever the next speaker is, gets rid of the
Speaker 4: motion to vacate I think it makes the Speaker's job impossible,
Speaker 4: and the American people expect us to have a functioning government.
Speaker 1: Get rid of the motion to vacate. That's where we
Speaker 1: begin our conversation with Congressman Brad Sherman. He's with us,
Speaker 1: of course, the Democrat from California. Back on Bloomberg. It's
Speaker 1: good to see you, sir, and I appreciate your time.
Speaker 1: I'd like to ask you about this entire process. But
Speaker 1: I wonder if you agree with Mitch McConnell you wait
Speaker 1: in back in January and the Speaker's fight, saying at
Speaker 1: some point here Republicans need to work with Democrats. Can
Speaker 1: they do that while there's still a motion to vacate?
Speaker 5: I they will try to perhaps change the rules to
Speaker 5: get rid of the motion to vacate. I doubt Democrats
Speaker 5: will help them do that. When we take the majority
Speaker 5: in twenty twenty four, I'm sure we will not have
Speaker 5: a motion to vacate. But if they're going to ask
Speaker 5: us to help them change the rules, we've got a
Speaker 5: lot of rules that we think we ought to change.
Speaker 1: Well, there we go. So let's get into this just
Speaker 1: a little bit here. I wonder your thoughts first, of
Speaker 1: all on Republicans blaming Democrats for firing Kevin McCarthy. That's
Speaker 1: the narrative that we've been hearing from a lot of
Speaker 1: GOP lawmakers. Congressman, you voted to oust Kevin McCarthy.
Speaker 5: Every Democrat voted to vacate the chair. We don't think
Speaker 5: that Kevin McCarthy's a good speaker. We think a King
Speaker 5: Jeffries would be an excellent speaker. If we can't get
Speaker 5: him installed this year, we've got next year.
Speaker 1: What do you think is going to happen next week?
Speaker 1: And I know that you're looking at this from the
Speaker 1: Democratic side of the aisle, and nobody's consulting you right
Speaker 1: now on Jim Jordan versus Steve Scalise, But you know
Speaker 1: these individuals.
Speaker 5: I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being Scalise
Speaker 5: in the number one position and Jordan in the number
Speaker 5: two position. I also wouldn't be surprised if we have
Speaker 5: continuing chaos. But I think their craziest members may have
Speaker 5: gotten their pound of flesh. They may have and may
Speaker 5: be willing to abide by the tradition, which is, if
Speaker 5: your caucus selects a leader, you vote for that leader.
Speaker 5: For Speaker of the House. But if even five of
Speaker 5: their members don't decide to go along with that tradition.
Speaker 5: We voted for Hakim Jeffries fifteen times last roll call
Speaker 5: back in January, and we're ready to do it again
Speaker 5: fifteen times or one hundred and fifteen times.
Speaker 1: And you'll be voting for Hakim Jeffries under this scene,
Speaker 1: according to many has been very disruptive and will be
Speaker 1: to the process of funding the government. Congressman, are you
Speaker 1: bracing for a shutdown on November seventeenth?
Speaker 6: Absolutely?
Speaker 5: I mean even if McCarthy had gotten what he wanted,
Speaker 5: what he wanted was to pass the resolution as crazy
Speaker 5: as people wouldn't vote for that slashed food for pregnant
Speaker 5: women and infants, that slashed federal aid to education around
Speaker 5: the country. That was what he wanted. Now you can
Speaker 5: imagine the Democrats and the Senate aren't going to take
Speaker 5: that up. So I would suspect that we're going to
Speaker 5: have some very tough negotiations and the question will be
Speaker 5: whether any compromise is one a that a new Republican
Speaker 5: Speaker is willing to accept and be Maybe they moved
Speaker 5: to vacate the chair at their extremes because I can
Speaker 5: be sure nothing that can pass the Senate is going
Speaker 5: to get Gates to vote for it. So you need
Speaker 5: the only way to keep the government open is to
Speaker 5: have a speaker who's willing to put on the floor
Speaker 5: or bill that Gates won't vote for it.
Speaker 1: Congressman, I want to ask you about the economy and
Speaker 1: the trajectory of interest rates from your perch out of
Speaker 1: the Financial Services Committee. This is something we've discussed before,
Speaker 1: of course, the battle against inflation. We're hearing higher for Longer,
Speaker 1: and we spoke today on Bloomberg with Mary Daily and
Speaker 1: San Francisco Fed President. Here's what she said.
Speaker 7: My job as I see it, our job, as I
Speaker 7: see it, is not to tighten. Just do our part
Speaker 7: to watch financial conditions. Because monetary policy works. We raise
Speaker 7: the funds rate and it moves through all the other
Speaker 7: interest rates. If financial conditions are sufficiently tight, our work
Speaker 7: is not necessary because we don't need to boost them more.
Speaker 1: Where do you think we're going with this, Congressman, Higher
Speaker 1: for longer is the narrative right now, but we've seen
Speaker 1: this change on a dime. Depending on the trajectory of
Speaker 1: the economy tomorrow, we're going to get jobs numbers. Will
Speaker 1: that be another inflection point?
Speaker 5: It'll be another one. If I knew where interest rates
Speaker 5: were going, I wouldn't be on this TV show with you.
Speaker 5: I'd be on the phone with my broker. But I
Speaker 5: would say that the recent decline and oil prices will
Speaker 5: certainly help control inflation. Oil is not only what we
Speaker 5: pay at the pump, but it's based into the transportation
Speaker 5: cost of everything you buy. So I'm hoping that we
Speaker 5: can get inflation controlled without going higher for longer. But
Speaker 5: we'll see.
Speaker 1: You think the FED should hike again or start preparing
Speaker 1: for rate cuts. I think you've been pretty consistent on this,
Speaker 1: but the data prices have been stubborn.
Speaker 5: I think they have to be a data driven I
Speaker 5: have argued for a two point three percent target rather
Speaker 5: than a two percent target, But whichever target you have,
Speaker 5: it's still above that number. And it's so hard to
Speaker 5: manage the economy using interest rates when their main effect
Speaker 5: is months after you make the decision. It would be
Speaker 5: like driving a car where when you turn the wheel,
Speaker 5: you go half a mile before the Effectively.
Speaker 1: I can't talk to you without bringing up your favorite topic,
Speaker 1: which of course is crypto and we're watching the trial
Speaker 1: of Sam bankman Fried unfold. Heary, you wrote on Twitter,
Speaker 1: crypto bros will say SBF was one snake in a
Speaker 1: crypto garden of Eden. In truth, though crypto you say
Speaker 1: is a garden of snakes. You go on to write,
Speaker 1: while his ghost still roams the halls of Congress today
Speaker 1: he faces justice. How is his ghost still alive in Congress?
Speaker 1: Are you referring to donations that have gone unreturned?
Speaker 5: More than his advocacy for bills that would get the
Speaker 5: SEC out of the crypto world and provide only a
Speaker 5: patina of regulation through the CFTC. His goal, his reason
Speaker 5: for being here in this very building, the Rayburn Building,
Speaker 5: was to try to get the SEC out of crypto,
Speaker 5: and that in itself tells you we got to get
Speaker 5: the SEC more into crypto. This is a currency that
Speaker 5: has no advantage over the dollar except in its name.
Speaker 5: It is literally hidden money. And when you see a
Speaker 5: New Jersey senator with gold bars and huge amounts of cash,
Speaker 5: you realize just how more efficient that would be in
Speaker 5: a crypto world where you don't need cash, you don't
Speaker 5: meet gold bars, you just have secret accounts. And on
Speaker 5: Hosted Wallace.
Speaker 1: I understand there's an eviction underway in the Capital. Congressman,
Speaker 1: I wonder your thoughts on Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer
Speaker 1: are losing their hideaway space one of the first actions,
Speaker 1: if not the first, taken by the new acting Speaker.
Speaker 5: Patrick McHenry, I think this is an incredibly petty move.
Speaker 5: It has no political benefit except within the Republican caucus
Speaker 5: where they can say, look, oh we just we just
Speaker 5: back down to Democratic leaders, and maybe that would make
Speaker 5: them feel good enough to unite behind a new speaker.
Speaker 5: But it's it's a really bad face for the Republican Party.
Speaker 1: Thanks for being back with us, Brad Sherman, Congressman from California.
Speaker 1: Here on Bloomberg Sound On, I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington.
Speaker 1: As we assemble our panel. Rick Davis is back with
Speaker 1: us today, Bloomberg Politics contributor of course and Republican strategists,
Speaker 1: joined as well by Alvin Jordan, vice president Rock Solutions
Speaker 1: Democratic Analysts. Good to see both of you here. I
Speaker 1: wonder if you agree, Alvin, this idea of kicking Nancy
Speaker 1: Pelosi out of her quarters here hideaway as they call
Speaker 1: in the Capitol building, typically an honor reserve for a
Speaker 1: former speaker? Is this just the way the game is played? Now?
Speaker 8: I agree we've reached the point of you know, petty
Speaker 8: politics in that way. But if the long term goal
Speaker 8: is to you know, kind of consolidate and bring you know,
Speaker 8: the Republicans closer together, the hope would have to be,
Speaker 8: you know, beyond the petty is that this is something
Speaker 8: that will at least you know, start to align and
Speaker 8: combine forces in a way. So petty for sure, but
Speaker 8: if the long term goal is constructive, I think given
Speaker 8: all that we've seen, this is this is par for
Speaker 8: the course.
Speaker 1: Rick Davis, what do you think about the latest here?
Speaker 1: Are you surprised no new names have emerged that Republicans are.
Speaker 1: In fact, it appears coalescing around a race between Steve
Speaker 1: Scalise and Jim Jordan for Speaker.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I'm not surprised that other names have not emerged.
Speaker 9: I think that the two of them moved quickly and
Speaker 9: decisively into the vacuum that was created by the former
Speaker 9: speaker McCarthy's ouster. So if they had waited for the
Speaker 9: end of the week, let's say, to make this announcement
Speaker 9: that you might have seen other people testing the water,
Speaker 9: but their teams got out quick started calling members and
Speaker 9: rounding up support. So I think most people look at
Speaker 9: this and say, the question isn't like can we accommodate
Speaker 9: other candidates in the field. I think the real question
Speaker 9: is can either of these candidates actually get to to eighteen.
Speaker 9: Everybody I've talked to today is having a hard time
Speaker 9: seeing how either one of them get to that number,
Speaker 9: and so it may be that we're premature and that
Speaker 9: these guys have to sort of play out the political
Speaker 9: scenario in their caucus, and if they can't get to
Speaker 9: to eighteen before the vote is taken, then maybe somebody
Speaker 9: else gets elevated to a compromise candidate of some kind.
Speaker 9: But we're going to see how these two battle it
Speaker 9: out and see whether or not they can get to
Speaker 9: the magic number.
Speaker 1: Aids to Kevin McCarthy are calling lawmakers on Jim Jordan's
Speaker 1: behalf Alvin set a help or a hindrance after which
Speaker 1: just happened.
Speaker 8: I think it's all a hindrance at this point, to
Speaker 8: be completely honest, and on some level I think fair.
Speaker 8: The House Republicans at this point have shown that they
Speaker 8: are in complete disarray and don't have a real vision
Speaker 8: or path forward, and so honestly, I think we're getting
Speaker 8: to the point of, you know, I would like to
Speaker 8: see a news speaker all together. I don't think it
Speaker 8: would be an issue if we saw to say, and
Speaker 8: King Jeffrey's takeover as the speaker role, just because I
Speaker 8: don't know how much faith Americans can actually have. Any
Speaker 8: of this back and forth is productive in that way.
Speaker 1: Rick, you know how to spread the word on Capitol Hill,
Speaker 1: you know how to whip votes, you know how to
Speaker 1: get support for something that the lawmaker is pushing. What's
Speaker 1: going to happen behind the scenes. Then most lawmakers are
Speaker 1: out of town over the next several days because on
Speaker 1: Monday it's going to be go time where these candidates
Speaker 1: are actually started to pitch their colleagues with formal final
Speaker 1: arguments before an election day.
Speaker 9: Yeah, it's a combination of geographic outreach. We know that
Speaker 9: both Scales and Jeffries Jefferts made presentations to the Texas
Speaker 9: delegation twenty five Republican members strong doing the same thing
Speaker 9: with other delegations that have high concentration of Republican members.
Speaker 9: But then they're also cross pressuring the five families, you know,
Speaker 9: the Republican Study Commission, the Freedom Caucus, you know, the
Speaker 9: problem solver. I mean like there's a there's a whole
Speaker 9: outreach campaign going on with these folks on an ideological basis,
Speaker 9: which is interesting because neither one of these candidates Scalise
Speaker 9: are known to be real you know, players in any
Speaker 9: of these organizations, right, and so a lot of it
Speaker 9: is deal making amongst the five families who can get
Speaker 9: consolidation of votes right. You can't do it one by one.
Speaker 9: It's just too big a problem. But there are some
Speaker 9: influential members like Kevin McCarthy, who is the only one
Speaker 9: who could garner two hundred and ten votes. Couldn't get
Speaker 9: to two eighteen, but he could get to two hundred
Speaker 9: and ten, and so having him call actually is I
Speaker 9: think a big advantage because there are a lot of
Speaker 9: people who wish he was still speaker and frankly wish
Speaker 9: he would run again. And maybe that's one of the scenarios,
Speaker 9: is that neither one of these guys can get to
Speaker 9: that magic number, maybe he re enters the race. Who knows.
Speaker 9: I don't think anybody knows how this is going to
Speaker 9: turn out.
Speaker 1: Yet, That's why it's remarkable and I'm holding out for
Speaker 1: that to happen. Alvin, I don't know about you. I
Speaker 1: know you're a Democrat looking across the aisle. But if
Speaker 1: neither Scalise or Jordan get to two eighteen, we go
Speaker 1: another fifteen rounds. Let's say it's next Friday. Kevin McCarthy's
Speaker 1: sitting there with his arms folded smirking. Then what.
Speaker 8: I mean. On the one hand, I have to say, uh, like,
Speaker 8: kudos for him to be in a position to where
Speaker 8: we could even look over at him to see the smirk, right,
Speaker 8: But I don't know that, given what we've seen, that
Speaker 8: that's the healthiest path forward, even if it's a viable one.
Speaker 8: I think I think we're at a place truly where
Speaker 8: we got to, you know, figure out a path to
Speaker 8: get someone that can, you know, again taking a step back,
Speaker 8: someone that can give confidence that the government in the
Speaker 8: country is headed in the right direction.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: Rick Davis and Alvin Jordan are great panel today as
Speaker 1: we come back to consider the rules, is Mitch McConnell
Speaker 1: wright does the motion to vacate need to go away
Speaker 1: to save the House?
Speaker 2: That's next On Bloomberg you're listening to the Bloomberg Sound
Speaker 2: On podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com,
Speaker 2: and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live
Speaker 2: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just
Speaker 2: Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 1: Will Donald Trump save Republicans in the House. This is
Speaker 1: a real question, as The Messenger now reports that the
Speaker 1: former president may visit House Republicans as the speaker race
Speaker 1: heats up. They say he's intrigued about the idea of
Speaker 1: being temporary speaker. We told you that yesterday. He was
Speaker 1: asked about it in the courthouse in New York.
Speaker 2: Remember, a lot of people have played speaker.
Speaker 6: All I can say is, we'll do whatever's best world
Speaker 6: the Republic.
Speaker 8: Would you take the job?
Speaker 10: Would you take the job?
Speaker 6: We have some great, great people. Would you take the job?
Speaker 6: A lot of people have asked me about it. I'm focused.
Speaker 4: You know, we're leading.
Speaker 6: I don't know you though, inter we too much for
Speaker 6: the papers fifty points for president. My focus is totally
Speaker 6: of that. If I can help them during the process,
Speaker 6: I would do. We we have some great people in
Speaker 6: the republic guardy. They could do a great job a speaker.
Speaker 1: A lot of people are asking about it. Let's reassemble
Speaker 1: the panel. Rick, Davis and alf and Jordan are with us. Rick,
Speaker 1: what do you think Donald Trump swoops in? You can
Speaker 1: imagine his view on all this, right, temp speaker in
Speaker 1: the roster room, drop the gavel a couple times, then
Speaker 1: you move on to being president you own Washington. Is
Speaker 1: this actually gonna happen?
Speaker 4: Well?
Speaker 9: It certainly goes with the master brand magician that he
Speaker 9: is to constantly resurrect himself. And I gotta admit, I
Speaker 9: mean it would be one of the great moves of
Speaker 9: all time Politically, I doubt if the House Republicans need
Speaker 9: that level of I would say, to be within their
Speaker 9: ranks at this stage. I know many of the members
Speaker 9: I've talked to are hopeful that going through this process
Speaker 9: will actually help unite them as a caucus. I think
Speaker 9: that's a wish that it would likely not come true.
Speaker 9: But having Donald Trump at the Helm during an election process, Wow,
Speaker 9: that would be highly entertaining. I'd love to see it
Speaker 9: go ahead. Guys, bring him in as if he hasn't
Speaker 9: enough to do, like run for president or stay out
Speaker 9: of jail, right, I mean, so yeah. I mean, if
Speaker 9: we're going to make a mockery in the democratic process,
Speaker 9: let's let's get started and go big.
Speaker 1: Well, as we learned, they'd have to be a rule
Speaker 1: change because at the moment you cannot be indicted and
Speaker 1: be speaker. But as I read of the messenger Alvin,
Speaker 1: he's deeply attracted the idea and his phone is blowing
Speaker 1: up with Republicans urging him to go to Washington. Is
Speaker 1: this a democratic dream come true?
Speaker 8: Can call me. I'll just say, like I mean to
Speaker 8: even here the leading of you know, all of this
Speaker 8: coming live from the courthouse, as as we await of
Speaker 8: litany in a in a long laundry list of indictments,
Speaker 8: it really is a joke. And if the goal truly
Speaker 8: is to again make a joke of American democracy, then
Speaker 8: absolutely I said, let's go forward it we can sell
Speaker 8: pay per view and get our you know, subscribers up
Speaker 8: as a country, because at that point it would be
Speaker 8: uh complete and in the utter comedy. To be honest, No,
Speaker 8: we can't do it. We shouldn't, We shouldn't even entertain it.
Speaker 8: The fact that it is being entertained, I think it
Speaker 8: is just in this case, you know, just more ammunition
Speaker 8: for Democrats for sure.
Speaker 1: Well, they say C spans the original reality TV right.
Speaker 1: The source tells the messenger that Trump is entertaining becoming
Speaker 1: speaker on an interim basis for a few months. I
Speaker 1: don't know how he would work all of that into
Speaker 1: Rick's point. But I also wonder what Mitch McConnell would
Speaker 1: think about that. Not a big Donald Trump fan if
Speaker 1: you want to consider actual gridlock, but I wonder your
Speaker 1: both of your thoughts on Mitch McConnell's advice. A rare
Speaker 1: bit of advice from the Republican leader in the Senate
Speaker 1: for whoever next holds the gavel. Here's what he said.
Speaker 4: I have no advice to give the House of Republicans
Speaker 4: except one. I hope whoever the next Speaker is gets
Speaker 4: rid of the motion to vacate. I think it makes
Speaker 4: the Speaker's job impossible and the American people expect us
Speaker 4: to have a functioning government.
Speaker 1: I suspect you agree with that, Rick, But would that
Speaker 1: be possible with the scenario we have here and how
Speaker 1: difficult it will be clearly for anyone to reach to eighteen.
Speaker 9: Yeah, Look, I can see the scenario where they make
Speaker 9: a change. Republicans realize, Joe, that this isn't helping them right,
Speaker 9: there are other than eight members. There are no other
Speaker 9: Republicans in the House of Representatis. I think this has
Speaker 9: been a good week and that they're actually getting the
Speaker 9: job done for the American people by actually not being
Speaker 9: able to do their job because they don't have a speaker.
Speaker 9: So if you go with the presidents that they all
Speaker 9: see this as a wake up call, then in the
Speaker 9: process of anointing someone the next speaker in that caucus,
Speaker 9: which is where you're going to get those two hundred
Speaker 9: and eighteen votes, I can see an open conversation about
Speaker 9: the fact that we need to make a change so
Speaker 9: that the next speaker doesn't get put through the ringer
Speaker 9: the way Kevin McCarthy was put through it by a
Speaker 9: very small minority of Republicans. And I would say they've
Speaker 9: lost a lot of credibility by taking down the speaker
Speaker 9: and throwing this House into disarray. So maybe they're on
Speaker 9: the defense enough to be willing to make that change.
Speaker 1: This goes back to twenty eighteen. Nancy Pelosi, Alvin, we're
Speaker 1: a Democrats on the motion to vacate and as Mitch
Speaker 1: McConnell said, getting rid of it.
Speaker 6: Again.
Speaker 8: Who knew that Mitch McConnell, being the voice of reason,
Speaker 8: was on the BINGO card for twenty twenty three. I
Speaker 8: surely did not, But I will say I have to
Speaker 8: agree with him. It's the same as if, you know,
Speaker 8: if I desire to watch the television in my house
Speaker 8: and I swab batteries from a different appliance, I can't
Speaker 8: be surprised when the old batteries fail and I'm no
Speaker 8: longer able to use my functioning equipment. It's the same
Speaker 8: in this case, like no one can can truly like
Speaker 8: be looked to to do their job if they're you know,
Speaker 8: you know, hand is tied behind their back. And so
Speaker 8: I agree. I think at some point have to make
Speaker 8: a concession because otherwise we'll be right back where we
Speaker 8: are today, and I don't think anyone wants that.
Speaker 1: And of course, whatever happens with government funding, a lot
Speaker 1: of it is going to hinge on the debate over
Speaker 1: border security. That's what brought us to the brink of
Speaker 1: a shutdown just a week ago. And we're certainly not
Speaker 1: done with this yet. And there's news on this today,
Speaker 1: and it might not be when you would expect the
Speaker 1: headline of the terminal. Biden says he tried to stop
Speaker 1: plans to add to Trump's border wall. We just heard
Speaker 1: from the President in the Oval Office on this. You
Speaker 1: guys may have seen the news here that the White
Speaker 1: House the administration has announced plans to add roughly seventeen
Speaker 1: miles along the Rio Grande in Texas, the Trump border
Speaker 1: wall that Joe Biden at one time said would not happen.
Speaker 1: In fact, here's what he said to NPR about this.
Speaker 11: There will not be another foot of wall constructed on
Speaker 11: my administration.
Speaker 1: Not another foot. Fast forward to today. In the Oval Office,
Speaker 1: he took one question after a brief photo opportunity.
Speaker 11: Answered one question on a border wall, the border wall.
Speaker 11: The money was appropriated for the border wall. I tried
Speaker 11: to get them to reappropriated to redorrect that money. They did,
Speaker 11: They wouldn't And in the meantime, there's nothing under the
Speaker 11: law and they have.
Speaker 6: To use money for will's appropriate. I can't stop that.
Speaker 1: No, doesn't believe it works. But we're adding seventeen miles. Rick,
Speaker 1: you're more familiar with the appropriations process than most Americans.
Speaker 1: There's not much he can do here. But it's not
Speaker 1: a good look, is it.
Speaker 9: No, But the entire mess on the border is not
Speaker 9: a good look. I'd say this is a component of that.
Speaker 9: It brings it up so that he had to deal
Speaker 9: with it today. But the reality is heeds comprehensive solution
Speaker 9: to immigration or he will get nitpicked to debt. And
Speaker 9: by the way, presidents before him had the same problem.
Speaker 9: We need comprehensive immigration reform. We can't allow three million
Speaker 9: people in one year to walk across the border, you know,
Speaker 9: declare asylum and migrate the cities all across America, creating
Speaker 9: all kinds of pressure on the economies of those cities.
Speaker 9: This is a president who has a chance to do
Speaker 9: something about it between now and election day. And the
Speaker 9: idea that you just shirk it back and say I
Speaker 9: don't agree with what Congress appropriated or I don't think
Speaker 9: you can do anything an election year is a cop out.
Speaker 9: Do something about immigration. It's hurting our country.
Speaker 1: Alvin Jordan. Does the president need to come up with
Speaker 1: a better answer than that?
Speaker 8: I think so what's happening right now is so reactionary
Speaker 8: that again, it is really you know, if you're you
Speaker 8: know the former President Trump, like, what else do you
Speaker 8: need by way of talking point as to say, oh,
Speaker 8: President Biden is completing my project. But I do think
Speaker 8: it shines a light on the larger problem that we're seeing,
Speaker 8: whether it be in places like Egle Pass, Texas or
Speaker 8: even in you know, New York City, which is there
Speaker 8: is a larger problem that needs to be addressed. And
Speaker 8: while you know, I can understand a bit of the
Speaker 8: you know, kind of spot duty that the president is
Speaker 8: doing now as we roll into election season, I would
Speaker 8: I would hope that his team is is putting together
Speaker 8: a full proof plan to address what is becoming, you know,
Speaker 8: one of the larger, if not you know, the largest
Speaker 8: issues kind of you know, facing our country at this time.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you better believe there'll be a lot more to
Speaker 1: follow on this. Alvin Jordan and Rick Davis are panel today.
Speaker 1: As we turn next to the latest fundraising hall by
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, triple that of Ronda Santis, will take a
Speaker 1: look at the numbers on the GOP trailer.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us
Speaker 2: live weekdays at one Eastern.
Speaker 3: On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg
Speaker 3: Business app.
Speaker 2: Or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 1: Is there any point in calling Ronda Santis the second
Speaker 1: place candidate any longer? It's not just the polls, it's
Speaker 1: the money. As the Trump campaign and the DeSantis campaign
Speaker 1: report fundraising from the last quarter, and there's really no
Speaker 1: comparison Donald Trump. And this is according to the campaign,
Speaker 1: raise more than forty five and a half million dollars
Speaker 1: in the last quarter, triple what Ronda Santis is putting
Speaker 1: up here at fifteen million, and that's down from twenty
Speaker 1: in the second quarter. So fundraising and polling numbers are
Speaker 1: declining for Ronda Santis. By the way, three million of
Speaker 1: that forty five was from the mug shot. We finally
Speaker 1: can put a number on this. Three million dollars from
Speaker 1: T shirts, coffee mugs, posters of the menacing mug shot
Speaker 1: from Georgia. Money in the bank. Also no comparison Donald
Speaker 1: Trump thirty seven and a half to Santis five. As
Speaker 1: we reassemble our panel for their take and new polling
Speaker 1: numbers out today that we'll touch on as well with
Speaker 1: Rick Davis and Alvin Jordan. Rick Davis, Republican strategist of course,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Politics contributor Alvin is a Democratic analyst with us
Speaker 1: from Rock Solutions. Great to have you both here. Your
Speaker 1: thought on the fundraising here, Rick, RNC members are apparently
Speaker 1: questioning whether it even continued debates. How would you describe
Speaker 1: the state of this race?
Speaker 9: Well, first of all, I mean, the ever shrinking Rond
Speaker 9: de Santis campaign shrinks a little bit more. Not only
Speaker 9: has his pulling been shrinking, but you know, last quarter
Speaker 9: he raised twenty million, This quarter he raised fifteen. Next quarter,
Speaker 9: what is it going to be ten? It's not a
Speaker 9: great trajectory to be on if you're trying to surmount
Speaker 9: a really what seems like today unsurmountable lead by Donald
Speaker 9: Trump and the fact that he spent ten million dollars
Speaker 9: trying to, you know, get to where he is. Ron
Speaker 9: de Santis, you might want to rethink your spending strategy
Speaker 9: because every dollar you're putting in, you're going down. I mean,
Speaker 9: it's it's not a good place to be. I've been there.
Speaker 9: It's not a good place to be. And it'll be
Speaker 9: interesting to see how the rest of the field does
Speaker 9: the reality is that I'm kind of curious whether or
Speaker 9: not Nicky Haley has been able to convert a couple
Speaker 9: of good debate performances into more cash, which she desperately
Speaker 9: needs to also wage a campaign against Donald Trump. So
Speaker 9: this this is a very important report and I think
Speaker 9: one it'll tell us a lot about the stay of
Speaker 9: the race, not just to polling data.
Speaker 1: Interesting you mentioned Nicki Haley. She comes in second in
Speaker 1: the most recent USA Today Suffolk poll in New Hampshire,
Speaker 1: Trump forty nine, Haley nineteen. It's down to ten for
Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis in that same pole. Marquette is out today
Speaker 1: as well. This a national poll, Trump fifty six to
Speaker 1: Santas twelve, Haley six. What do you make of this, Alvin,
Speaker 1: specifically when it comes to the money, is this conversation
Speaker 1: over or is New Hampshire going to bring a surprise
Speaker 1: to Nicki Haley?
Speaker 8: Well, I've used succession references here on Bloomberg Programming before,
Speaker 8: and I'll use another one from Logan Roight now, which
Speaker 8: is money wins and in America that is you know,
Speaker 8: double true. And so I think it is exactly what
Speaker 8: it shows is, which is this is a demoralizing report
Speaker 8: if you're Governor DeSantis or Nicky Haley in this way,
Speaker 8: because you truly are you know, facing what seems like
Speaker 8: an insurmountable kind of you know, climb up the mountain
Speaker 8: in that way. And I think as as the money
Speaker 8: becomes clearer, you know, a mug shot, even our pace
Speaker 8: is what it seems like would be, you know, kind
Speaker 8: of record months and quarters for the others. Again, I
Speaker 8: think we talked about this when the last debate was looming,
Speaker 8: which was it truly you know, seemed like it was
Speaker 8: a race for a second, And now we're learning that
Speaker 8: a race per second truly means, you know, paces and
Speaker 8: paces behind former President Trump in that way. And so
Speaker 8: I think you have to, truly, you know, at this point,
Speaker 8: not only we look at the spending that you've done
Speaker 8: up into now, but also just truly, you know, have
Speaker 8: those realistic conversations with your team to see if it's
Speaker 8: even possible to close the gap at all, which, in
Speaker 8: my opinion, I think is close to impossible at.
Speaker 1: This point, close to impossible. Rick, talk to us about
Speaker 1: the debates here. Next one is November eighth in Miami.
Speaker 1: They're begging Trump to show up. He won't. And now
Speaker 1: Politico is up with the story today saying that actual
Speaker 1: members of the RNC are questioning whether to continue in
Speaker 1: this format or at all, because it's starting to embarrass
Speaker 1: the candidates and the parties. Are we going to do
Speaker 1: all of these still?
Speaker 9: Yeah? I mean look, I mean part of it you
Speaker 9: got to put on the candidates. I mean, like the
Speaker 9: last debate was boring, a bunch of guys and galls
Speaker 9: snapping at each other, no real focus on the front runner.
Speaker 9: Nobody really answered a lot of inspirational you know, questions
Speaker 9: weren't answered in an inspirational fashion. I mean, it was
Speaker 9: just it was just kind of junk TV. And yeah,
Speaker 9: if that's what you're going to get, then you ought
Speaker 9: to quit doing it because it's not helping the Republican
Speaker 9: brand and it's not helping any of these candidates. The
Speaker 9: reality is, I don't see the rn C putting any
Speaker 9: pressure on Donald Trump to join these debates when they
Speaker 9: put enormous pressure on everybody to qualify to be in
Speaker 9: these debates. So what what bargain are you getting for
Speaker 9: playing by the RNC rules? None? So look, I think
Speaker 9: the RNC has really botched this. They look like, you know,
Speaker 9: they were setting up this thing for like, oh, we're
Speaker 9: going to win the field. Really quickly, and it turns
Speaker 9: out that the field is not even participating in the debate,
Speaker 9: and everybody else on the fringes are, like, you know,
Speaker 9: making it all look bad. So I think the RNC
Speaker 9: chairman needs to sit down and say what am I
Speaker 9: doing to the party here and change the whole format
Speaker 9: of these things, or or or just quit.
Speaker 1: Having What if this was the d n C. Alvin,
Speaker 1: I realize it's not, but I'm just curious your view
Speaker 1: on this as a matter of principle, a party in
Speaker 1: a situation like this, a bunch of scheduled debates, a
Speaker 1: field of candidates, what would you suggest?
Speaker 8: I think you gotta I mean, you have to find
Speaker 8: a way to get what seems you're very clear, uh,
Speaker 8: you know, front runner and former President Trump involved, whether
Speaker 8: that is you know, him doing uh separate interviews with
Speaker 8: Toker Carlson or just his kind of post trial interviews
Speaker 8: or press conferences if you will. I think these are
Speaker 8: are definitely eclipsing the efforts that they're trying to do,
Speaker 8: and you know, in the conversation about money wasting it essentially,
Speaker 8: so I think they have to have that real conversation
Speaker 8: with themselves as a as a committee and a collective
Speaker 8: and and try to make sure that if the candidate
Speaker 8: is clear that that they're put in their their resources
Speaker 8: behind he or she, in this case the former president.
Speaker 8: But I don't think that they can continue, regardless of
Speaker 8: whether it was the DNC or not, to move forward
Speaker 8: with a pace that is is not benefiting them in any.
Speaker 1: That is absolutely incredible. Does it even matter? Does Trump
Speaker 1: counterprogram these again, Rick, we only have thirty seconds, or
Speaker 1: does he just kind of ignore it like everybody else.
Speaker 9: No, he'll count a program it. I mean, he loves
Speaker 9: to like sort of poke fun at these guys. So yeah,
Speaker 9: I can't wait to see where he shows up next
Speaker 9: to Bate me too.
Speaker 1: November eighth. I can't imagine. I guess they'll be nearby.
Speaker 1: They'll all be in Florida. By God. I'm Joe Matthew
Speaker 1: and Washington with our panel today, Rick Davis and Alvin
Speaker 1: Jordan on the fastest show in Politics. We're live from Washington.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast.
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Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, where we have caught up
Speaker 1: with Kaylee Lions here in our studio. Join us on
Speaker 1: YouTube search Bloomberg Global News, and we'll be here waiting
Speaker 1: for you when you arrive. Nice to see you today.
Speaker 1: Not a lot has changed since we spoke this time yesterday.
Speaker 1: It's still on Capitol Hill the same situation. Steve Scalise
Speaker 1: Jim Jordan the only two to really raise their hands
Speaker 1: on a formal level to run for Speaker, and the
Speaker 1: funding debate is on ice until this is solved.
Speaker 12: Oh, complete paralysis at the moment, because what is Speaker
Speaker 12: pro temporary Patrick mcckenry able to do?
Speaker 3: We think not much.
Speaker 12: Do we know for sure that it's a little bit buzzy.
Speaker 1: We'll see if we need to see.
Speaker 12: But the popular thinking is that really all that he's
Speaker 12: going to be able to preside over is a speaker vote,
Speaker 12: and that's not going to happen until next Wednesday, and
Speaker 12: between now and then we could maybe see more hats
Speaker 12: tossed in the ring, But it does seem like it's
Speaker 12: these two candidates really leading right now.
Speaker 1: I just want to know I they're going to change
Speaker 1: the rules for Donald Trump. We talked about this last
Speaker 1: hour when it was the Messenger. Now we can tell
Speaker 1: you there's a terminal headline. NBC is also reporting that
Speaker 1: he's considering a visit to the Capitol amid the race
Speaker 1: for speaker. He said yesterday a lot of people are
Speaker 1: asking The Messenger said he's obsessed with this right now,
Speaker 1: and his phone is burning up with Republicans asking him
Speaker 1: to come to town.
Speaker 12: Well, we know he can't be a speaker, right Republican
Speaker 12: constants us at the moment they can do if you're
Speaker 12: under indictment, you cannot. The thing is that one of
Speaker 12: these individuals we're talking about who has already tossed their
Speaker 12: hat in formally, Jim Jordan is a very close ally
Speaker 12: of Donald Trump. So I wonder if he does make
Speaker 12: an appearance, if it really is going to be to
Speaker 12: support him over Steve Scaleze or what exactly he would say.
Speaker 1: Well, the Messenger reported that he's been having this fantasy
Speaker 1: of actually having the job for a couple of months.
Speaker 1: You come in here, you hold the gavel. I mean,
Speaker 1: maybe he could slam that gavel even harder than Patrick
Speaker 1: McHenry did and sort of run the thing, take the lap,
Speaker 1: and then you just go down the other end of
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania Avenue and become president.
Speaker 12: So be speaker until November twenty four, the secret until Iowa.
Speaker 1: He said, a few months until the campaign, till the
Speaker 1: first Yeah, maybe Iowa. We'll call it maybe the first
Speaker 1: trial of well, I don't know. As he put it yesterday,
Speaker 1: a lot of people are asking a lot of people.
Speaker 6: Speaker. All I can say is, will whatever's best world.
Speaker 12: Republic?
Speaker 6: Would you take the job? Would you take the joh
Speaker 6: we have some great, great people, would you take the job?
Speaker 6: A lot of people have asked me about it. I'm focused.
Speaker 1: A lot of people are asking me about it. The
Speaker 1: phone's burning up. I don't know what's going to happen,
Speaker 1: but they're asking. And we'll see, of course, if I
Speaker 1: find you're going to be down there with you. Imagine
Speaker 1: the media horde on that day when Donald Trump comes
Speaker 1: to the House sneakers. I don't think he can resist it.
Speaker 1: I'll say that right now, this has to happen. He's
Speaker 1: not going to be able to resist it, so uh elsewhere,
Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell says, if you want to do this right,
Speaker 1: lose the motion to vacate. So we're talking about a
Speaker 1: complete do look at rules and everything. When this it'll
Speaker 1: be a brand new day.
Speaker 12: I guess next week well, and McConnell's not the only one.
Speaker 12: You have members of the House, Republican members of the
Speaker 12: House saying, whoever, we're not going to vote for anyone
Speaker 12: for speaker if they don't change the rules, because the
Speaker 12: idea is if you leave it where one individual can
Speaker 12: decide to move on the motion to vacate, we could
Speaker 12: very well be in a repeat scenario a few months
Speaker 12: from now. If there's one person who doesn't like what
Speaker 12: whoever the new speaker becomes is doing, we'll just be.
Speaker 1: On be a revolving door and then no one will
Speaker 1: really ever want the job. Not that they're taking Mitch
Speaker 1: McConnell's advice right now, but we have to talk about
Speaker 1: this with Eli. I'm glad to say Eli Oakley is
Speaker 1: back US politics analyst at Morning Consults. Eli, it's good
Speaker 1: to see you. You're gonna start running numbers here on
Speaker 1: this race like you would a presidential campaign.
Speaker 10: I think we are checked back in next week. I mean,
Speaker 10: all this situation needed was dal Trump to insert himself
Speaker 10: into it.
Speaker 12: Okay, well, when we're t talking about Donald Trump, obviously
Speaker 12: he is writing just a continued wave of support and
Speaker 12: it just his lead keeps on growing and growing and growing,
Speaker 12: and maybe someone feeling that invincible might think, yeah, I
Speaker 12: could be Speaker of the House. There's no real sign
Speaker 12: of that fading, right, Eli.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 10: I mean, his level of support is incredible. It's like
Speaker 10: three and five potential Republican primary voter support has bid.
Speaker 10: There's not a lot of opposition to his assent to
Speaker 10: the Republican presidential nomination next year. We have not yet
Speaker 10: asked voters where they are on him being Speaker of
Speaker 10: the House. It's hard to see him doing it, honestly.
Speaker 10: I mean, it's kind of an insular, real job that
Speaker 10: you have to get legislation done, you have to plan votes,
Speaker 10: you have to heard the cats of the House Republican conference.
Speaker 10: But it's gonna be a tough job for whoever gets it.
Speaker 10: I Mean, one of the things we noticed that really
Speaker 10: stuck out to us in the last few weeks is
Speaker 10: there wasn't just like a popular uprising in the Republic
Speaker 10: can electure it against Kevin McCarthy. Since the beginning of September,
Speaker 10: his standing with Republican voters who have views about him
Speaker 10: hasn't really changed. He's kind of popular, about twice as
Speaker 10: popular that unpopular with your Republican electorate. Clearly, this was
Speaker 10: an insular personal attack on Kevin McCarthy among these eight
Speaker 10: House Republicans who just didn't like him. That motion of
Speaker 10: a Kate, You're right is a big, big gun over
Speaker 10: the heads of anybody who takes this job. And this
Speaker 10: could be pretty consequential in the coming weeks.
Speaker 1: Well, that's true, and the idea of eliminating the motion
Speaker 1: to vacate is compelling. You see, Matt Gates tweeted about this.
Speaker 1: Kayley producer James just sent this along. He says, okay,
Speaker 1: let's negotiate, and he retweeted something from Rocanna. Actually was
Speaker 1: about Rocanna and an anti corruption plan that he put forth,
Speaker 1: a ban on congressional stock trading, twelve year limit for Congress,
Speaker 1: and ban on political donations from lobbyists or packs. Matt
Speaker 1: Gates says, if we enact the reforms Rocanna lays out there,
Speaker 1: I'll basically give you whatever you want on the motion
Speaker 1: to vacate for this stuff. Maybe we run numbers on
Speaker 1: this too. ELI does this all get renegotiated after what
Speaker 1: we saw a couple of days ago.
Speaker 6: We'll see.
Speaker 10: I mean, it's a pretty good card to have if
Speaker 10: you're some of these conservative rabble rousers. I think looking forward,
Speaker 10: the challenge for the Republican Party is that it's made
Speaker 10: some gains since twenty sixteen and since twenty twenty. When
Speaker 10: you ask voters about its capability to govern, it has
Speaker 10: advantage on this question over the Democratic Party. We're going
Speaker 10: to see how much some of this stuff in Capitol
Speaker 10: Hill breaks to the electorate. I mean, it's always important
Speaker 10: to remember some of these stories that we obsessed with
Speaker 10: here in Washington don't really break through. I assume the
Speaker 10: speaker being ousted probably will, and I think that plus
Speaker 10: this prospect of another government shutdown, this continued spending debate,
Speaker 10: could do something to put a drag on the Republican
Speaker 10: Party when voters think about its ability to do the job.
Speaker 12: Moving forward, Yeah, we're staring down that November seventeenth deadline.
Speaker 12: It's going to come up pretty quickly, especially if we
Speaker 12: potentially could be looking at a prolonged speaker fight. Eli.
Speaker 12: When we talk about though, the issues on Capitol Hill,
Speaker 12: a lot of the issues that are going to be
Speaker 12: relevant in this speaker's race, whoever ultimately is buying to
Speaker 12: get the majority votes that they need include Ukraine funding
Speaker 12: big one. This is something that Jim Jordan told reporters yesterday.
Speaker 12: He is not in supportive of doing any further despite
Speaker 12: what the Senate and Administration may be seeing. Where are
Speaker 12: Americans on the issue of Ukraine funding.
Speaker 10: Eli, Yeah, I mean the electricates funding Ukraine is still
Speaker 10: pretty popular among voters. It's less popular than it used
Speaker 10: to be, but I mean part of that is just
Speaker 10: the American people aren't paying attention to the war like
Speaker 10: they did at the beginning of it. There's still a
Speaker 10: good chunk of voters who back supporting Ukraine, but you're right,
Speaker 10: it's divisive among Republican voters, and it's very divisive among
Speaker 10: Republicans on Capitol Hill. I mean, even Mitch McConnell's out
Speaker 10: there supporting it. There's a chunk of the Republican elector
Speaker 10: who is still on board with sort of the old
Speaker 10: school of American strength abroad. And then there's these new dissenters,
Speaker 10: but they have all the cards right now.
Speaker 1: On Capitol Hill talk with the Yoakley at morning consult.
Speaker 1: I know you have new numbers on impeachment and this
Speaker 1: is important because you're showing a backing actually increase among
Speaker 1: Republican voters. But we have really no way to move
Speaker 1: this forward until there's a speaker either. It's just one
Speaker 1: of the big points of business that will have to
Speaker 1: wait until this is solved. What are you learning.
Speaker 10: Yeah, about seventy percent of Republican voters support the current
Speaker 10: impeachment inquiry. Top line support hasn't really shifted.
Speaker 8: About half of.
Speaker 10: The American elector it supports the impeachment inquiry and the
Speaker 10: President Biden. I think that what we've seen in recent weeks,
Speaker 10: as you know, House Republicans have their first hearing, is
Speaker 10: this is something that excites the Republican base. This is
Speaker 10: sort of a rallying cry on among the average Republican
Speaker 10: voter and probably among some on Capital Hill. I mean,
Speaker 10: it's a good thing to fall back on whenever you're
Speaker 10: having these spending debates. You know, ask people to take
Speaker 10: a hard vote on something, then go after Joe Biden
Speaker 10: the next day. It's always pretty popular to go after
Speaker 10: your opponent. This is something that riles up the republic
Speaker 10: Republican electric and I think it probably does too with
Speaker 10: a number of Republicans.
Speaker 9: On Capitol Hill.
Speaker 12: Does it have a galvanizing force for Democrats?
Speaker 8: Though?
Speaker 12: On the other end, do you? I?
Speaker 10: I mean, what we're seeing is a bit of dissension
Speaker 10: among the Democratic electorate. About three and ten Democratic voters
Speaker 10: support the current impeachment inquiry. That lines up pretty well
Speaker 10: with the level of opposition to President Joe Biden in
Speaker 10: a Democratic primary. I think clearly he is in the
Speaker 10: driver's seat of this primary and the Democratic Party. He's
Speaker 10: the face of the Democratic Party. There's no chance of
Speaker 10: unseating him, but he does face some level of weakness
Speaker 10: and support among the Democratic base. I think one of
Speaker 10: the big things we're going to be watching in twenty
Speaker 10: twenty four is you have two likely nominees for president
Speaker 10: who have very unique vulnerabilities via Joe Biden's age, via
Speaker 10: Donald Trump's criminal liability. That sets up the prospect of
Speaker 10: maybe a low energy election in terms of voters showing
Speaker 10: up to the poll's next Sovember.
Speaker 1: Just don't tell Donald Trump you said low energy he
Speaker 1: just bagged forty five and a half million dollars in
Speaker 1: the last quarter. Eli the fundraising numbers are starting to emerge.
Speaker 1: That's triple what Ron DeSantis pulled. His numbers went down
Speaker 1: as his polling also goes down. And I wonder what
Speaker 1: the view is now from your perch at morning consult as.
Speaker 1: Some members of the RNC question even continuing debates after
Speaker 1: next month.
Speaker 10: I mean, what's the point of them at this point.
Speaker 10: I mean, you have the front runner with three and five.
Speaker 1: That's what Donald Trump.
Speaker 10: Says among the electorate, that is what he says, and
Speaker 10: the Republican base is tuning this out too. I mean,
Speaker 10: there was less interest in the second debate than there
Speaker 10: was in the first. There was no increase in support
Speaker 10: for any I mean after the first Republican debate, we
Speaker 10: saw NICKI Haley's support double, but it was from three
Speaker 10: percent to seven percent. I mean, why does that even
Speaker 10: matter until the Republican candidates consolidate. If they are willing
Speaker 10: to consolidate, this is Donald Trump's to lose. The support
Speaker 10: is just too divided. If there are forces in the
Speaker 10: Republican Party who want to unsee Donald Trump, this race
Speaker 10: is going after to narrow dramatically in.
Speaker 9: The coming weeks.
Speaker 12: Yeah, and Neela, I think it's interesting looking at Morning
Speaker 12: consolets pulling data because some of the candidates that were
Speaker 12: more well known, like Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina
Speaker 12: is pulling it, I believe right now one percent. So
Speaker 12: it seems like whatever gained someone like Nicki Haley may
Speaker 12: get is coming from kind of those lower tier candidates.
Speaker 12: It's not eating it all into Trump's lead, it's just
Speaker 12: kind of winnowing out the field at the bottom. Is
Speaker 12: that Is that a right assessment?
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean we've seen a little bit of growth
Speaker 10: from Nicki Haley, from Vivic Ramaswami, maybe from Ron DeSantis.
Speaker 10: But yeah, I mean Tim Scott barely make the first
Speaker 10: debate stage at one percent right now, which is would
Speaker 10: probably be surprising to a lot of folks if you
Speaker 10: asked them six months ago. He was supposed to be
Speaker 10: sort of the star in the in line for the
Speaker 10: for the nomination that there's just no energy for him right now.
Speaker 10: We'll see what happens with Rod de Santas. He did
Speaker 10: raise money, he has money to spend. Donald Trump obviously
Speaker 10: outraised him coming in the coming weeks and months as
Speaker 10: Rond De Santis pushes to narrow the debate stage, maybe
Speaker 10: to try to get some consolidation up there for voters
Speaker 10: to see.
Speaker 1: Eli I had a conversation last evening with a Democratic
Speaker 1: operative here in Washington, who was more concerned about no labels,
Speaker 1: was more concerned about RFK Junior, was more concerned about
Speaker 1: even Cornell West disrupting this election cycle, uh in Donald
Speaker 1: Trump or whomever's favored, than he was about any specific
Speaker 1: Republican candidate.
Speaker 10: What do you think, Yeah, I mean, look, Joe Biden
Speaker 10: does have these vulnerabilities. There is a chunk, a small chunk,
Speaker 10: but a chunk of the electorate who wants to see
Speaker 10: somebody else. It's the same on the Republican side. That
Speaker 10: seemed like the kind of scenario that could set up
Speaker 10: some of these defectors. And you don't need that many.
Speaker 10: Just ask Hillary Clinton what happened to her in Michigan
Speaker 10: in twenty sixteen. Clearly that is something that the Biden
Speaker 10: campaign is concerned about. But he still has a modest
Speaker 10: advantage or tied with President Trump when you ask a
Speaker 10: head to head question for the generic ballot. But there
Speaker 10: is still good chunk of the electorate, a meaningful chunk
Speaker 10: of the elector that is undecided on this race, and
Speaker 10: lack enthusiasm for either Trump or Biden. The American people
Speaker 10: just many folks don't want these candidates to be the
Speaker 10: nominees next year.
Speaker 12: That's all at the presidential eli. But to circle back
Speaker 12: to where we started this conversation and just the sheer
Speaker 12: dysfunction we are seeing in the Republican side of the
Speaker 12: House of Representatives right now. When we think about the
Speaker 12: down ballot races, how do you think this impacts Republicans'
Speaker 12: chances to hang on to the House in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 10: I mean, right now, the race for the House lines
Speaker 10: up pretty closely with the race for the White House
Speaker 10: and pulling you do something called the generic congressional ballot,
Speaker 10: and those numbers mirror Biden and Trump's pretty closely among
Speaker 10: Democrats and Republicans, especially in an era of fewer tickets splitters,
Speaker 10: I think the twenty twenty four race for Congress is
Speaker 10: gonna oline pretty closely with what's happening at the presidential level.
Speaker 10: I think this dysfunction on Capitol Hill it'll be interesting
Speaker 10: to see if that feeds into how voters even thinking
Speaker 10: about the White House next year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, another snapshot from Eli Yoakley. It's great to have
Speaker 1: you back. Eli. Politics analysts that morning consult with myself
Speaker 1: and Kaylee Lines. Don't be a stranger. Eli will do
Speaker 1: this again soon when you have some new research for us.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the sound On podcast.
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