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Speaker 3: Stocks hovering at fresh records as investors await the first
Speaker 3: policy decision under a new regime. Victoria Fernandez of Cross
Speaker 3: Global Investments writing, we believe there is still room to
Speaker 3: run even if we get higher rates. As long as
Speaker 3: earnings and margins remain strong, the market can digest a
Speaker 3: rotation of leadership.
Speaker 4: Victoria joins us.
Speaker 3: Now, Victoria, where else do you see this market having
Speaker 3: more room to run?
Speaker 5: Yeah?
Speaker 6: Well, I think when you look at the rotation that
Speaker 6: we've seen, we saw those high momentum, those high beta
Speaker 6: names really come back over the last week, and so
Speaker 6: other areas have started to pick up a little bit.
Speaker 6: You saw it in some transportation, you saw it in healthcare,
Speaker 6: you saw it in some energy names. Obviously we've seen
Speaker 6: energy names come back a little bit based on the
Speaker 6: information of the last few days, but it's still not
Speaker 6: in an over sold position. I think at this point
Speaker 6: in time, what you're looking for is maybe.
Speaker 7: Not necessarily specific sectors.
Speaker 6: The names that are going to be able to run
Speaker 6: are those that have those positive factors like good free
Speaker 6: cash flow, good profitability, like return on equity, looking at
Speaker 6: strong earnings yield right, not just earnings growth, those high
Speaker 6: growth names, but relating that to pe So, I do
Speaker 6: think there's some opportunities within all of the sectors. But
Speaker 6: on a broad base, you are seeing some of those
Speaker 6: that have been hardest hit that are now in up
Speaker 6: trends starting to make a comeback here, and I think
Speaker 6: that's important when we look at the breadth of this
Speaker 6: market and how far this bull market can actually go.
Speaker 8: Well, Victoria, one of the things that you point out
Speaker 8: that one should be cautious on. It's clearly not outright
Speaker 8: bearish by any means, but is the consumer. What are
Speaker 8: you seeing that's leading you just to be a little
Speaker 8: bit more tepid about the state of the American consumer.
Speaker 6: Yeah, so, you know, Danny, it's really amazing when you
Speaker 6: think of how well the consumer has held up over
Speaker 6: the last months. As we've been very concerned about things
Speaker 6: that are happening, and you're looking at wages that are
Speaker 6: really stagnating, You're looking at the difference between real wage
Speaker 6: growth and real consumption that continues to widen as savings
Speaker 6: continues to come down. We had a little bit of
Speaker 6: improvement in consumer confidence, but it's still very low.
Speaker 7: We're back below levels that.
Speaker 6: We saw in COVID on some of those things and
Speaker 6: small businesses.
Speaker 7: That's to me a big yellow flag.
Speaker 6: You've got the NFIB report that came out last week
Speaker 6: that really is not showing tremendous signs of improvement there.
Speaker 6: They are still struggling and still concerned. So as we
Speaker 6: get you know, additional signs of layoffs. We had more
Speaker 6: layoff reports reported this morning. I think that tells us
Speaker 6: the consumer is going to continue to be a little
Speaker 6: bit cautious in what they're doing, especially with some of
Speaker 6: the liquidity efforts we've seen earlier in this year start
Speaker 6: to pull back. Like I said, wages stagnating and savings
Speaker 6: being depleted.
Speaker 8: I mean, we heard the news overnight that Blackrock is
Speaker 8: going to cut about two hundred roles worldwide. I think
Speaker 8: maybe perhaps what you're talking about, But Victoria, what do
Speaker 8: you do with that? I mean, AI is still hot.
Speaker 8: These companies are still spending a lot, even if there
Speaker 8: is some softness in hiring. How do you factor that
Speaker 8: into your trades at the moment.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think when you're looking at these companies, obviously
Speaker 6: Capex is really driving the productivity that we're seeing, and
Speaker 6: we're hoping productivity is going to be supportive of earnings.
Speaker 6: So I think you go back to some of those
Speaker 6: elements we were talking about a minute ago. I think
Speaker 6: you look at what are the companies that give us
Speaker 6: those high earnings yield. I mean, look at a company
Speaker 6: like a video you can still add to your tech
Speaker 6: positions and videos doing well Fortinet.
Speaker 7: Look at Cybersecurity again.
Speaker 6: High earnings yield, so good earnings growth, but a lower
Speaker 6: pe relative to other companies within its sector and within
Speaker 6: the market. Even Adobe is fitting within that category and
Speaker 6: profitability as well. So I do think there's some things
Speaker 6: you can do within these sectors, and that's how we're
Speaker 6: looking at where to invest for our clients along with
Speaker 6: adding a little bit of that defensive component because of
Speaker 6: our concerns, you can add a little bit to fixed
Speaker 6: income here, because I do think when you look at
Speaker 6: the short end of the curve you guys were talking
Speaker 6: about a minute ago, two years are still over fifty
Speaker 6: basis points above the low end of FED funds, So
Speaker 6: as some of that starts to get priced out, the
Speaker 6: short end of the curve.
Speaker 7: Could be advantageous as well.
Speaker 4: Victoria.
Speaker 3: Of course, we have Kevin Walsh's first meeting as FED chair.
Speaker 3: We just heard from Betsy do former FED governor, says
Speaker 3: Kevin Warsh is going to be a hall and she's
Speaker 3: expecting a complete rewrite of the statement.
Speaker 4: What are you expecting from him?
Speaker 6: Yeah, I was surprised to hear say that she expects
Speaker 6: a complete rewrite.
Speaker 7: I do think we'll see some changes.
Speaker 6: Obviously, everyone's looking to have that easing bias removed, and
Speaker 6: I think that's somewhat given at this point. What I'm
Speaker 6: going to be looking at is what is being told
Speaker 6: around how communication is going to happen in the future.
Speaker 6: I think that is going to be the key point
Speaker 6: that we're looking at here. Does Walsh even give us
Speaker 6: a dot on the SEP. I'll be very curious to
Speaker 6: see if that happens. I don't think he's going to
Speaker 6: replace Myron's dot. Where is he going to land on
Speaker 6: there or does he give us one? And what is
Speaker 6: he going to say around press conferences going forward? How
Speaker 6: much FED governors are going to be able to go
Speaker 6: out and talk about things. To me, it's some of
Speaker 6: those changes, along with potential balance sheet changes that we're
Speaker 6: going to be watching.
Speaker 3: How do you expect the market maybe to test him
Speaker 3: when we see the market test new FED chairs, but
Speaker 3: this is a known figure, he's been around his establishment
Speaker 3: figure for years.
Speaker 4: Do you think the market's going to test him?
Speaker 6: You know they say they're always tested, and we've seen
Speaker 6: it historically. Maybe the test is going to be sitting
Speaker 6: here where we are right now, where labor market is
Speaker 6: actually holding its own somewhat right now, so it's not
Speaker 6: giving you really a case to ease, which we assume
Speaker 6: he's coming in with maybe a little bias towards wanting
Speaker 6: to ease, but at the same time having this sticky inflation.
Speaker 6: I don't think inflation is going to come down just
Speaker 6: because we get a deal signed with Iran potentially over
Speaker 6: the next few weeks. I think some of that inflation
Speaker 6: is really built in there. We saw it even before
Speaker 6: the Iran war started, and I think it will continue.
Speaker 6: I mean, you look at super core CPI over the
Speaker 6: last three months, you're running at a five and a
Speaker 6: half percent rate on an annual basis.
Speaker 7: So I think there's that may be his test.
Speaker 6: We've got that sticky inflation, you know, labor somewhat holding steady.
Speaker 6: So with his easing bias, will he actually be more
Speaker 6: of a hawk. I think that's what we have to
Speaker 6: wait and see.
Speaker 8: Or maybe he already got the test with just a
Speaker 8: market that started to remove from it Victoria. I mean,
Speaker 8: maybe that's a help for him at this moment. I
Speaker 8: was home to Amory about this idea before that. There
Speaker 8: does seem to be sort of a disconnective with the
Speaker 8: bond market and the stock.
Speaker 4: Market has been doing in the recent week.
Speaker 8: Both of them clearly are pricing in something of a
Speaker 8: piece premium, but the equity market seems to have gone further,
Speaker 8: almost at a high when we haven't quitely removed any
Speaker 8: we haven't totally removed the hiking bias from what the
Speaker 8: future's probability you're pricing in from this FED. What do
Speaker 8: you make of that slight disconnect between the two markets.
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's interesting.
Speaker 6: So I actually manage fixed income strategies. I mean, I
Speaker 6: grew up in the fixed income world, and we tend
Speaker 6: to be a little more cautious and the things that
Speaker 6: we do. And I think that's what the bond market
Speaker 6: is doing here. They're saying, look, we're not blowing out,
Speaker 6: you know, anything on credit spreads. We're not saying there's
Speaker 6: this tremendous issue that we have to look at, no
Speaker 6: credit concerns right now. But we also are not so
Speaker 6: sure that inflation is going to come down very quickly.
Speaker 7: We're not so sure that this deal.
Speaker 6: Or memorandum of understanding is going to flow through and
Speaker 6: help earnings. Like the equity market is tending to just
Speaker 6: be all in on that thought process. So I just
Speaker 6: think the bond market is being a little bit more
Speaker 6: cautious to say, wait and show me market right now.
Speaker 7: And that's what the numbers are showing.
Speaker 6: I think as we go over the next couple of weeks,
Speaker 6: if we get more concrete answers, you might see the
Speaker 6: bond market respond a little bit more.
Speaker 2: Stay with us multile impeg, Savannah's coming up off.
Speaker 5: To this.
Speaker 3: Investors awaiting Kevin Walsh's first meeting as Federal Reserve chair
Speaker 3: as warring inflation adds to uncertainty over the direction of
Speaker 3: rates of Torsten's Slock of Apollo writing with geopolitical risk
Speaker 3: easing and FED shair, Kevin Warsh focus on simplifying FED
Speaker 3: communication the number of words and the FOMC statement could
Speaker 3: move down to levels seen under Alan Greenspan. Torsen joins us, Now, okay,
Speaker 3: so a statement comes out, do you need to read
Speaker 3: it first or just do a quick word count?
Speaker 9: We certainly need to read it first because the key
Speaker 9: issue here is, of course what style of communication we're
Speaker 9: going to get, and in particular, what is the forward guidance?
Speaker 9: Is that any forward guidance? Is he going to say
Speaker 9: that we do not like forward guidance. This is still
Speaker 9: a very very unclear area in terms of what is
Speaker 9: the communications style and what is Kevin what was going
Speaker 9: to do in terms of what is he going to say.
Speaker 4: At the press.
Speaker 3: Conference, former Fed Governor Betsy Duke was just on with
Speaker 3: us and she was talking about how there could be
Speaker 3: a complete rewrite of the statement not just a little
Speaker 3: tweak of the easing bias, is that what you're expecting
Speaker 3: as well?
Speaker 9: I think that is something that we should expect. That's
Speaker 9: one of the outcomes we just don't know. So that's
Speaker 9: the reason why the market, of course, has been used
Speaker 9: to having very well anchored expectations around the dot plot.
Speaker 9: The dot plot has been around now for fifteen years.
Speaker 9: Almost the ACP meaning the forecast, been around for almost
Speaker 9: twenty years, so most people in financial markets have grown
Speaker 9: up with very anchored expectations about the economic outlook and
Speaker 9: very anchored expectations about what the fab will do. And
Speaker 9: this discussion about is there an anchor is there not
Speaker 9: an anchor?
Speaker 5: Of course, it's good to have an anchor in the sense.
Speaker 9: That that's clear then where everyone knows where we're going.
Speaker 9: But at the same time, if the world changes, then
Speaker 9: it's not good to have an anchor. And this is
Speaker 9: the debate up on the scale, namely, do we want
Speaker 9: to have an anchor or do we not want to
Speaker 9: have an anchor that will give more flexibility to their
Speaker 9: fund sheet in.
Speaker 4: This very moment.
Speaker 8: If we remove some of that and we remove some
Speaker 8: of the forward guidance, does that not all things considered
Speaker 8: make us a little bit more hawkish because we don't
Speaker 8: have that residual easing bias that had been there before.
Speaker 5: Yes, and next with.
Speaker 9: Particularly important if we begin to think about the discussion
Speaker 9: around rates, because Kevin Wiss has also been focusing on
Speaker 9: shrinking the balance sheet, and a compromise could potentially be that, well,
Speaker 9: we're not going to change much communication on rates, but
Speaker 9: maybe saying that the balancey will be smaller is simplicitly
Speaker 9: also going to be a tightening opposition. So it all
Speaker 9: depends on where the committee stands at where they discuss
Speaker 9: today and what their outcome stations in terms of how
Speaker 9: should they communicate, how are they going to signal to
Speaker 9: your point, Danny, that there is still some problems with
Speaker 9: inflation being too high. We still have a strong label
Speaker 9: market which all argues that the.
Speaker 5: Fed should be tightening financial positions. Do you think this
Speaker 5: is a.
Speaker 8: Chair warsh who will want to sort of galvanize a
Speaker 8: consensus as Powell had, And how challenging will that be?
Speaker 8: If so, if he does want to implement something in
Speaker 8: his words of a regime.
Speaker 5: Change for the Fed, well, Kevin was knows what he's doing.
Speaker 9: But I think what is a very important challenge of
Speaker 9: course for him is that he wants any changes, Basically
Speaker 9: he needs to have the other eleven members on their firm,
Speaker 9: see the voting members on board with whatever he wants
Speaker 9: to change. So that's why it must be clear also
Speaker 9: for him he needs to get them on his side
Speaker 9: in terms of any decision made, because always decisions about
Speaker 9: not only rates, also about qe QT whatever needs to
Speaker 9: be changed in terms of policy, there are twelve voting
Speaker 9: members and they vote about what do they want to change,
Speaker 9: And therefore the number of descents also potentially becomes important.
Speaker 5: When we get the statement.
Speaker 4: Tomorrow, do you think we get less FED speak then?
Speaker 4: With Kevin Warsh as the.
Speaker 9: FED chair, Well, that's really challenging because telling the regional
Speaker 9: FED presidents that they're not allowed to talk more, even
Speaker 9: the governors that they're not to talk more, that's just
Speaker 9: not possible. And given we have had a history now
Speaker 9: of a lot of communication. That means also the market
Speaker 9: has been putting more weight on the fit chair, and
Speaker 9: I think the Markel continues to put most weight on
Speaker 9: the fit chair.
Speaker 3: And don't you think we've seen more of this robust
Speaker 3: debate and communication because of Steve Myron, who was a
Speaker 3: Trump appointee. So it would be pretty odd if Kevin
Speaker 3: moorsh came in and said, actually stopped talking as much.
Speaker 9: Yeah, because we've also had some of course, to your
Speaker 9: point here, we have some quite diverting views in terms
Speaker 9: of the dot plot. And this is of course also
Speaker 9: why the dot plot creates sometimes a bit more confusion. Yes,
Speaker 9: it may be anchoring expectations, but the stain of deviation
Speaker 9: of those expectations also get a lot of attention. In
Speaker 9: other words, how divergent are the views in terms of
Speaker 9: what's going to happen in the future, And we don't
Speaker 9: know which dot is the fit chair dot. So that
Speaker 9: also makes it more complicated in terms of the dots
Speaker 9: coming out actually going to be helpful in the sense
Speaker 9: of anchoring expectations or do they raise more questions about
Speaker 9: the uncertainty of what is a disagreement on the committee.
Speaker 3: There's also debate right now whether or not Kevin Moosh
Speaker 3: put a dot on the plot.
Speaker 9: Yeah, because he could also decide to This would be
Speaker 9: highly unusual.
Speaker 5: Of course, that will of course.
Speaker 9: Decide he could decide to say I'm not going to
Speaker 9: put in a dot. He could also decide to say
Speaker 9: I'm not going to submit my CP forecast, meaning his
Speaker 9: forecast for he thinks the economy is going.
Speaker 5: That would be pretty dramatic.
Speaker 9: So if the goal here for him, remember the most
Speaker 9: important job for the FT chair is really to create
Speaker 9: consensus about a decision. All books written by previous Fetchair
Speaker 9: as they all emphasize that a key part of the
Speaker 9: job is to basically call around to all the voting
Speaker 9: here from C members and also the non voting members
Speaker 9: and say, what do you think should be the outcome
Speaker 9: of this meeting? What is your view and try to
Speaker 9: come up with some solution and try to come up
Speaker 9: with some path where he can get a majority and
Speaker 9: ideally a big majority for the decision that they're going
Speaker 9: to take.
Speaker 8: It's complicated, but does this week's news on Iran a
Speaker 8: deal with memorandum of understanding being designed on fighting make
Speaker 8: things less complicated for Fetchhair.
Speaker 9: Worsh absolutely, because one key issue was that inflation is
Speaker 9: still roughly three percent in COPCE and COCPI, And the
Speaker 9: problem is when inflation is three and the FEDS target
Speaker 9: is two, then we have at least one good news
Speaker 9: is of course that we have energy prices coming down,
Speaker 9: but we still have a fairly strong economy getting tailwins
Speaker 9: from the AI boom, getting tailwins from the one big
Speaker 9: bit of a bill. And we also at the same
Speaker 9: time have up with pressure and inflation from tariff still
Speaker 9: hanging over and putting up with pressure, as several fit
Speaker 9: posts have been suggesting.
Speaker 5: So the key answer to your question is he absolutely
Speaker 5: is absolutely a help. He's helped by the fact that
Speaker 5: enterprise is how moving low. He is help.
Speaker 8: But again to your point to us, and there's inflation
Speaker 8: coming from other parts of this economy. So if he
Speaker 8: wants to lean more dubbish, if he wants to kind
Speaker 8: of like fulfill the promise that he had been talking
Speaker 8: to you from Trump, what points to the parts of
Speaker 8: this economy can he point to you to say we
Speaker 8: can still.
Speaker 4: Get a cut this year.
Speaker 9: Yeah, And the double saute is, of course that when
Speaker 9: energy prices go down, then we spend less money and
Speaker 9: energy and we spend more money on something else. And
Speaker 9: given that literally all high frequency indicators are still very strong,
Speaker 9: still very strong data from the TSA, how many people
Speaker 9: travel on airplanes, still very strong data on the weekly
Speaker 9: data from Redbook on how many people are consuming stuff
Speaker 9: at Walmart and Target and Tjmax. And we also have
Speaker 9: still very strong data when it comes to Hotel Demain
Speaker 9: on a weekly basis. So just it's very built science
Speaker 9: that no signs essentially at this point of the economies
Speaker 9: slowing down, so too high inflation, strong labor market that argues,
Speaker 9: of course for the fit needs to move.
Speaker 5: Towards a more hawkish stands.
Speaker 2: Stay with us, multiple impex Savannah's coming up after this.
Speaker 3: Ariana Salvator, the head of US public policy strategy at
Speaker 3: Morgan Stanley, joins us now for more. Thank you so
Speaker 3: much for joining us. How important do you think it
Speaker 3: was for the president to get this done now before
Speaker 3: we go into peak driving season in the summer, before
Speaker 3: everyone starts traveling for July.
Speaker 4: Fourth, and then of course the midterms.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Absolutely.
Speaker 1: When we think about Trump's incentive structure, you can't discount
Speaker 1: the importance of gasoline prices, right, But when we think
Speaker 1: about this in the election, we think about this in
Speaker 1: the context of affordability. Cost of living is the number
Speaker 1: one issue for voters, right aside from foreign policy, even
Speaker 1: the Iran war, you know, being largely net unfavorable for voters.
Speaker 1: And on that front, we think what matters more than
Speaker 1: the actual gas line price in the absolute level is
Speaker 1: the rate of change. So heading into peak driving season,
Speaker 1: you know, coming into the fall, if you're seeing gas
Speaker 1: prices actually on the decline, that might set up a
Speaker 1: different environment for Republicans come November than you would have
Speaker 1: if the election were today. Right, So that's what we
Speaker 1: think about, But again it's one piece of the puzzle.
Speaker 1: We also think about things like consumer sentiment. We look
Speaker 1: at the generic ballot, we look at prediction markets. All
Speaker 1: these are kind of painting the mosaic of.
Speaker 5: What to expect.
Speaker 3: When you look at pulling and you look at surveys,
Speaker 3: you see a consumer that's frustrated. At the same time,
Speaker 3: the data shows they've been relatively resilient.
Speaker 4: Right, How do you know square that circle?
Speaker 1: Yeah, So when we think about the consumer and the
Speaker 1: outlook there, our economists are forecasting a step down on
Speaker 1: a relative basis to last year, right, so just about
Speaker 1: one point eight percent.
Speaker 5: That's still you know, okay levels.
Speaker 1: It's not as healthy as it was last year, per se,
Speaker 1: but things aren't falling off a cliff.
Speaker 4: And I think that's from a.
Speaker 1: Political perspective, the most important point to underscore, right, So
Speaker 1: this is not the type of environment that's going to
Speaker 1: necessitate another reconciliation package, some sort of direct relief to consumers,
Speaker 1: something like that. That's not really entering the conversations in
Speaker 1: Congress as far as we can tell for now, what
Speaker 1: we tend to look at is, like I said, aside
Speaker 1: from consumer sentiment, things like the generic ballot and how
Speaker 1: consumers are feeling about the incumbent party in Congress, and
Speaker 1: there what we see is that Democrats are still up
Speaker 1: about seven points. Notably, that's actually pretty similar to how
Speaker 1: they were doing at this time in Trump's first term.
Speaker 1: The key difference, of course, is that President Trump's approval
Speaker 1: rating is almost ten points lower now than it was
Speaker 1: back then. So when I look a little bit deeper
Speaker 1: into that data, what you see is that there has
Speaker 1: been a big swing away from Democrats in terms of
Speaker 1: their favorability, so not just the approval rating of sitting lawmakers,
Speaker 1: but also the favorability of the party brand as a
Speaker 1: whole right relative to twenty eighteen. So that's an important
Speaker 1: consideration too, and we think about the outcome here. Obviously,
Speaker 1: historical precedent is strong, suggests that the president's party is
Speaker 1: likely to lose seats. But I think that the outcomes
Speaker 1: here are still kind of uncertain. We think about it
Speaker 1: in that context.
Speaker 8: I was going to say, and this is something you've
Speaker 8: noted as well, that prediction market, specifically Polymarket has an
Speaker 8: eighty three percent odds that the Democrats take the House.
Speaker 4: How off sides is that then?
Speaker 1: So, I mean, look, the House and the Senate are
Speaker 1: completely different animals, and we think about this. So if
Speaker 1: we look at the House, like I said, historical precedent
Speaker 1: is strong, the president's party almost always loses seats, I'd
Speaker 1: say the bar is pretty low, right, So Speaker Johnson
Speaker 1: there is working with a very thin majority. So I
Speaker 1: think House odds being greater than fifty percent certainly makes
Speaker 1: sense when we think about the Senate very different. Obviously,
Speaker 1: not all the seats are up the map there is
Speaker 1: just extremely challenging for Democrats. They have to win races
Speaker 1: that are in states that Trump won in the past election.
Speaker 4: You know, it's not necessarily a kind of.
Speaker 5: A done deal.
Speaker 1: Of Republicans are also coming into that which with a
Speaker 1: bigger majority than they've had in previous elections too.
Speaker 8: Again, something you point out, which I feel like is
Speaker 8: app to not discuss enough that a lot of the
Speaker 8: things that have mattered for this market, things like tariffs,
Speaker 8: are within the president's purview. So how should investors think
Speaker 8: if there is any sort of change bit in the
Speaker 8: House or the Senate, how much it matters for markets?
Speaker 1: So look, if you're a macro investor and equity investor,
Speaker 1: the answer to that question is going to be different.
Speaker 1: So when I think about this from a macro perspective,
Speaker 1: to your point, tariffs, deregulation, immigration controls, foreign policy, to
Speaker 1: a politics, all that is in the president's control, and
Speaker 1: I think that kind of policy risk is likely to
Speaker 1: stay elevated.
Speaker 4: Throughout the next couple of years.
Speaker 5: Too.
Speaker 1: When I think about this from a legislative perspective, what
Speaker 1: really matters here? I think there is some nuance, And
Speaker 1: I think in particular, if you look at things like
Speaker 1: healthcare and consumer sectors, that's where the difference comes in.
Speaker 4: Because we had the one.
Speaker 1: Big, Beautiful Bill Act legislated last summer that included some
Speaker 1: spending cuts right that are going to take effect twenty
Speaker 1: seven and twenty eight. Now, I'm of the view that
Speaker 1: if you see Democrats win both the House and the Senate,
Speaker 1: and they have what I call a cohesive majority, so
Speaker 1: they're able to unify and coalesce around some of the
Speaker 1: key policy asks. They may be able to work with
Speaker 1: the President on delaying, softening, or extending those cuts. Now
Speaker 1: that limits the downside for some stocks in consumer and
Speaker 1: healthcare spaces that are anticipating a falloff in participation in
Speaker 1: programs like and Medicaid.
Speaker 4: Ariana when it comes to affordability.
Speaker 3: The President, when he was asked about negotiating Ron, says
Speaker 3: he doesn't think of American's financial situation. The context was,
Speaker 3: I don't think of them when I'm thinking of a
Speaker 3: nuclear ron. But that's going to be clipped and played.
Speaker 3: I was recently with the President and I asked him
Speaker 3: about getting into a knixt game. The game he went to,
Speaker 3: the getting in price was eight thousand dollars for nosebleed tickets,
Speaker 3: and he said, basically, that's life and it's semi free
Speaker 3: on TV.
Speaker 4: Are these messages going to land with consumers?
Speaker 1: What we're seeing across the board is exactly that point, right.
Speaker 1: I think that's reflected in the President's approval rating. Kind
Speaker 1: of taking a bit of a dip over the past
Speaker 1: few months, but affordability policy has really been top of
Speaker 1: mine since I would say January of this year. The
Speaker 1: reality is, there's a lot that can be said about
Speaker 1: affordability policy, is very little that can be done.
Speaker 4: When we think about the total universe.
Speaker 1: Of what's available and then what's kind of quick to implement,
Speaker 1: what can impact voters ahead of November, there's not that
Speaker 1: much out there. So we think about something like housing policy.
Speaker 1: You know, we have the Road to Housing Act getting
Speaker 1: kind of pingpong back and forth between the House and
Speaker 1: Senate right now. That's not something that's going to really
Speaker 1: you know, implement and matter for voters ahead of November.
Speaker 1: The easiest lever the President has to pull is on tariffs,
Speaker 1: and I think you could maybe see something on that
Speaker 1: come July.
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