Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. I don't know if
Speaker 1: you've seen, but it is a tough day in the market.
Speaker 1: Stocks were hit really hard, Oils off two percent, smp
Speaker 1: is off almost three percent. Growth fears and tariffears directly
Speaker 1: impacting the market. What do you say, Oh.
Speaker 2: Look, this president's a businessman.
Speaker 3: He's a negotiator, not his career in politics and his
Speaker 3: career in business. And what has been the end result
Speaker 3: of that improvements for the American people. But we're in
Speaker 3: the midst of a deal right now. We're in midst
Speaker 3: of negotiations. Trump is fighting every day to make conditions,
Speaker 3: business conditions, cost of living conditions better for Americans. I
Speaker 3: think that's the trajectory we're on. But you've always got
Speaker 3: uncertainty on the road.
Speaker 1: There's there's pain for gain, right, but like how long
Speaker 1: that pain lasts for it can be really tricky, particularly
Speaker 1: when we're trying to actually invest.
Speaker 3: Yeah, look, he's got two big goals on trade.
Speaker 2: Number one we've heard about.
Speaker 3: I don't think it's been talked about enough, is Look,
Speaker 3: one hundred thousand or more premature deaths of mostly young
Speaker 3: Americans from fentanyl. He's massively motivated by that. Anyone who's
Speaker 3: been touched by a friend or a family friend that's
Speaker 3: seeing a death from fentanyl, this is just heartbreaking. So
Speaker 3: he's trying to work with both of our neighbor to
Speaker 3: the south and are nable to the north. How can
Speaker 3: we go as far as we can to shut down
Speaker 3: the trafficking in fentanyl?
Speaker 2: I think it's hard to go too far in that direction.
Speaker 3: The other thing President Trump wants to do is have
Speaker 3: free trade, but fair trade. You've heard him talk about
Speaker 3: reciprocal tariffs. You know, we have two hundred and fifty
Speaker 3: percent tariffs to export, you know, dairy products into Canada.
Speaker 3: That doesn't make any sense. That certainly hurts American dairy farmers.
Speaker 3: So let's have the parties come together and together work
Speaker 3: to lower tariff barriers together and have reciprocal trade.
Speaker 2: So it's faritaboth sides.
Speaker 1: All right, let's unpack that for a second. I'm going
Speaker 1: first to the trade barrier part. Just example, when you
Speaker 1: have a tax and a teriff Canadian imports of oil,
Speaker 1: won't that actually hurt consumers because all of a sudden
Speaker 1: you're going to have refiner margins are going to plummet
Speaker 1: and you're gonna have higher gasoline prices. Every analyst on
Speaker 1: the street is saying that they.
Speaker 2: Might be wrong, they might be wrong, but they're right.
Speaker 1: I mean, we don't have that oil in the US, right,
Speaker 1: we don't have heavy oil, so we cannotver find it here.
Speaker 3: Yes, it's good for that oil to come into our marketplace,
Speaker 3: and I suspect that market will continue coming into our marketplace.
Speaker 3: So look, there's uncertainty, is unsettling, and that leads to
Speaker 3: a loss of confidence, that leads to fear. But look,
Speaker 3: life is long. This administration has been in fifty days.
Speaker 3: We've had four actions on LNG exports. We're getting rid
Speaker 3: of nonsense regulations on home appliances to make them lower
Speaker 3: costs and higher performing. There's so much positive going on.
Speaker 3: But yes, you're seeing the sausage making up close and personal.
Speaker 2: Okay, at the end of the day, we want a.
Speaker 3: Lower cost for Americans and expand opportunity for Americans, and
Speaker 3: I think that's what you'll see coming.
Speaker 1: But what if the sausage becomes higher gasoline prices or
Speaker 1: diesel prices because of the tariffs.
Speaker 3: Well, since President Trump was elected and since he was inaugurated,
Speaker 3: you've seen the decline in oil prices, and i've decline
Speaker 3: in gasoline prices.
Speaker 2: You saw decline further today.
Speaker 1: This is true if they're down about seventeen percent oil
Speaker 1: prices since the peak back in January. But on the
Speaker 1: flip side, if I'm a driller, how do I drill more?
Speaker 1: Because I don't want to drill when oils at sixty nine.
Speaker 3: So President Trump's worked hard to lower the cost of
Speaker 3: doing business in the United States. We had four years
Speaker 3: in the Biden administration where there was so many barriers
Speaker 3: and you never knew where the next one was coming.
Speaker 3: You can't get a permit on federal land, you can't
Speaker 3: build a gathering line, you can't maybe you're not going
Speaker 3: to be able to export your natural gas. I don't
Speaker 3: want to drill if I'm not sure where it's going
Speaker 3: to go. We had all those things that artificially chilled investment,
Speaker 3: which means to break and break even, prices for the
Speaker 3: companies goes higher and higher. Trump's longer term agenda is
Speaker 3: make it easier to invest in America, lower cost to
Speaker 3: produce oil and natural gas, electricity, manufactured products, everything in
Speaker 3: the United States. So I think you're going to see
Speaker 3: a lowering of the break even, a lowering in the
Speaker 3: threshold at which it no longer makes sense to drill
Speaker 3: but supply to mantel dictate prices for sure.
Speaker 1: Sure, But on the flip side, if you have tariffs
Speaker 1: coming in on aluminum steel, that will raise the break
Speaker 1: even prices for well drilled We need.
Speaker 2: Two motivations there.
Speaker 3: Number One, we've seen so much exporting of manufacturing jobs
Speaker 3: in the United States over the last twenty five years,
Speaker 3: mostly to Asia, driven in large park by China. So
Speaker 3: he has a goal, I think, a great goal to
Speaker 3: reshore manufacturing in the United States. We can make heavy
Speaker 3: industry again in this country. But there's a transition time
Speaker 3: there for sure. But look, he's a negotiator, he's a businessman.
Speaker 3: He got elected to lower prices for American consumers. Do
Speaker 3: you think he's going to change his mind and say no,
Speaker 3: I'm in favor of higher prices on American consumers. That's
Speaker 3: not where this administration is going.
Speaker 1: Is just how long the pain will last? I think
Speaker 1: is really at the heart of the question. And as
Speaker 1: a CEO, I have not yet to meet a CEO
Speaker 1: here today that tells me they're going to a drill
Speaker 1: more because they're worried about the uncertainty.
Speaker 2: Uncertainty's unsettling. Uncertainty's unsalling.
Speaker 1: You know you're a CEO of a no oil company.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, but look, you've got to give it a little
Speaker 3: bit of time. We saw the results last time Trump
Speaker 3: was in four years in his first term, Trump forty five,
Speaker 3: there was a lot of fear there.
Speaker 2: What happened.
Speaker 3: Inflation average below two percent, Energy prices came down, wages
Speaker 3: grew in America, particularly for blue collar working class people.
Speaker 3: It's the same agenda. It's the same agenda this time.
Speaker 1: So let's go to the IRA for a second. You
Speaker 1: guys are reviewing, of course, what parts of the IRA
Speaker 1: will stay. Tax credits. Everyone I talked to loves the
Speaker 1: tax credits.
Speaker 2: They love them.
Speaker 1: They love them for hydrogen, they love them for when,
Speaker 1: they love them for solar. Will you keep those? Well,
Speaker 1: the administration keep them.
Speaker 3: Everybody loves to get other people's money, you know, whether
Speaker 3: it's business or consumers or whatever. But look where that's
Speaker 3: led us, Alex, Look where that's led us almost a
Speaker 3: two trillion dollar deficit in the last year of the
Speaker 3: Biden administration in peacetime with relatively low on them deployment.
Speaker 2: That's just un sustainable.
Speaker 3: If you shovel money out the door, everyone can get
Speaker 3: a sugar high, but you have to pay the piper.
Speaker 2: So there's of course.
Speaker 3: Politics, and it's the House and the Senate will decide
Speaker 3: what from the IRA bill stays and what goes. I'm
Speaker 3: of course advising on that, but I don't have a
Speaker 3: vote in the House or the Senate.
Speaker 2: But we had four years of a lot of.
Speaker 3: Money going out of the door, a lot of it
Speaker 3: in the name of new energies or whatever. And what
Speaker 3: do we get higher priced energy over.
Speaker 2: Those four years. Of course there's going to be a
Speaker 2: different tack this time.
Speaker 1: It will be if we label a clean tech for
Speaker 1: a moment, our analyst at Bloomberg they're called Bloomberg n
Speaker 1: EF said that over two trillion was invested in clean
Speaker 1: tech last year, about double fossil fuels, but nine percent
Speaker 1: of that was from China. If we don't invest in
Speaker 1: clean tech, are we basically giving China free run in
Speaker 1: that industry. And that's exactly not what the administration wants.
Speaker 3: Of course, I rejected label clean tech. That's just a
Speaker 3: marketing term. That means is lower greenhouse gas emissions. But
Speaker 3: much more material intensity, much more land and intermittent solar panels.
Speaker 3: So and you're right, China is huge in the manufacturing
Speaker 3: of these systems. China has built lots of wind and solar,
Speaker 3: but China last year permitted one hundred gigawatts of coal power.
Speaker 3: Their energy system is more hydrocarbon dominant than ours. So
Speaker 3: they're not moving They're not moving that direction. They're building
Speaker 3: a manufacturing industry to sell products to the United.
Speaker 2: States and Europe.
Speaker 3: So far, I would say it's worked for them better
Speaker 3: than it's worked for us. The United States gets just
Speaker 3: over three percent of our primary energy from wind, solar,
Speaker 3: and batteries three percent. Hundreds of billions of dollars for
Speaker 3: three percent.
Speaker 1: Okay, so you're not worried about that. So you don't
Speaker 1: want to like on shore US solar panels. Here in
Speaker 1: a world where you don't like solar panels.
Speaker 3: I'm not saying I don't like solar panels, okay, but
Speaker 3: the look I am. I'm actually I've worked in solar.
Speaker 3: I think solar has got a great future. It's growing rapidly.
Speaker 3: That's not at all true. It's just we do don't
Speaker 3: want to race down the road Europe went down right,
Speaker 3: we could.
Speaker 2: Put lots of windmills up in solar panels as.
Speaker 3: Germany and UK did, in double or triple our electricity
Speaker 3: prices and export our industry. That's just simply not the
Speaker 3: agenda of this administration. We want more energy, more affordable, reliable,
Speaker 3: secure energy that could come from all different sources. But
Speaker 3: ultimately the only constituency being aimed at is the American citizen.
Speaker 1: When we take a look at other forms of energy,
Speaker 1: we haven't brought up natural gas and energy exports, which
Speaker 1: was a huge focus of your speech today at Sarah Week.
Speaker 1: How are the conversations going for the ability to build
Speaker 1: out in the West energy export facilities to be more
Speaker 1: efficient to get energy to Japan.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Look, there's a project in Alaska we're talking about.
Speaker 2: There's several other projects.
Speaker 3: Ultimately, the infrastructure that comes from private industries and private players.
Speaker 3: So our goal is not to decide what the energy
Speaker 3: system is. It's just to get out of the way
Speaker 3: and enable businesses and consumers to decide with their own
Speaker 3: pocketbook and their own investments, what energy is going to be.
Speaker 2: But yes, we've had four years of it.
Speaker 3: Making it very hard to build new infrastructure that has
Speaker 3: changed now. I think you're going to see a lot
Speaker 3: of infrastructure built, but the specific projects will be built
Speaker 3: that'll be determined by consumers and investors builders of those projects.
Speaker 1: You haven't had talks with the Japanese government about this
Speaker 1: or anything.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, we have, okay, tremendous interest in Japan to get
Speaker 3: trust or just thoughts.
Speaker 2: Oh I would say, firm interests, firm interests. Yeah, I
Speaker 2: did that.
Speaker 3: Japan and the United States have had a great alliance
Speaker 3: across many sectors. The United States is blessed with abundance
Speaker 3: of energy. Japan didn't get the same abundances we have,
Speaker 3: but they also have the start of AI and technology
Speaker 3: growing in Japan. They have growing energy demand needs and
Speaker 3: where better to get that energy supplied than from the
Speaker 3: United States. Oh, I think we have very productive dialogues
Speaker 3: going on with Japan.
Speaker 1: And last question for you, because I have to ask it,
Speaker 1: are we going to see increased and harsher sanctions on
Speaker 1: Iran's oil industry and how does that then play into
Speaker 1: the UN as his relationship with Saudi Arabia and OPEQ
Speaker 1: plus and Russia.
Speaker 3: Look, President Trump has great cards in his hands right now.
Speaker 3: Given the American energy system and the willingness to produce
Speaker 3: more energy here. When he was president last time, Iranian
Speaker 3: oil exports shrunk down to very modest levels. It starved
Speaker 3: that regime of money to fund terrorists and to make
Speaker 3: trouble around the world. Biden didn't remove those sanctions, but
Speaker 3: he stopped enforcing him That enriched Iran. And now we've
Speaker 3: seen what's happened with the hu Thies, hesbl and Hamas
Speaker 3: it's been mayhem. So is President Trump looking to stop
Speaker 3: the mayhem and.
Speaker 2: Bring peace to the world. Absolutely.
Speaker 3: Can we afford the squeezing off of Iranian oil exports?
Speaker 3: Absolutely from the United States number one, but also from
Speaker 3: our allies abroad. You know, I think people realize America
Speaker 3: is open for business again, and we're seeing increased oil
Speaker 3: production and increased investments not just in America but around
Speaker 3: the world.