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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent

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Speaker 2: coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about,

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Speaker 2: it just means the absolute world to have your support.

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Speaker 2: But enough with that, let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody,

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Speaker 2: Happy Thursday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What

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Speaker 2: do we have, Crystal.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, we do a lot of interesting things that are happening.

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Speaker 1: So Kamala went on Fox News yesterday for a very

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Speaker 1: contentious interview. We'll show you all the highlights of that.

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Speaker 1: And Trump also was on Fox News for like a

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Speaker 1: women's focus town hall. Very different vibes, i would say,

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Speaker 1: between the two of them. So we'll share some of

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Speaker 1: that with you as well. Also have some new pulling

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Speaker 1: for you and Harry Unton taking a close look at

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Speaker 1: how well Kamala is doing with white women. Will they

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Speaker 1: ultimately allow her to cruise into the White House? We

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Speaker 1: will see Biden's still very mad at Nancy Pelow's apparently

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Speaker 1: they still have not spoken since he dropped on of

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Speaker 1: the race. Interesting revelations there and some reported tension between

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Speaker 1: the Kamala Harris and Joe Biden camps as well. We

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Speaker 1: are finally, I think, going to take a look at

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Speaker 1: the Florida real estate market today. We teased it the

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Speaker 1: other day and then we talked too much and some

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Speaker 1: other segments, so we just pushed it to today. So we

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Speaker 1: wanted to make sure we had time to do that

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Speaker 1: one justice because it is a very interesting story. We

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Speaker 1: also have our eyes of course on Israel in the

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Speaker 1: Middle East, former Israeli IDF. Actually someone who's high up

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Speaker 1: in the IDF issued a dire warning about the future

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Speaker 1: of the state of Israel. Who want to bring you

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Speaker 1: that as well as some other developments and a couple

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Speaker 1: of noteworthy CNN moments that we wanted to react to

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Speaker 1: for you. So that one's always.

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Speaker 2: Yes, exactly, always fun to get that into the show.

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Speaker 2: Before we get to that, just thank you to everybody

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Speaker 2: who has been signing up premium subscription. So we're getting

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Speaker 2: down to the wire here. As a reminder, you will

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Speaker 2: get our exclusive election map and prediction before election day.

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Speaker 2: If you are a premium subscriber all of our content

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Speaker 2: with Logan, which is our election forecaster, as well as

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Speaker 2: stuff that we're going to tease on election nights. You're

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Speaker 2: going to take advantage of that Breakingpoints dot Com and

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Speaker 2: you can become a premium sub now. As Crystal said,

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Speaker 2: we had a very contentious, certainly interview with Fox News.

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Speaker 2: Brett Bayer sat with Kamala Harris roughly twenty eight minutes.

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Speaker 2: A couple of different sections we wanted to go through

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Speaker 2: here for everybody. That shows some of the highlights for

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Speaker 2: what you think you could get out of it and

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Speaker 2: more importantly, what maybe some swing people could have gotten

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Speaker 2: out of it. First was on the section of immigration.

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Speaker 2: Let's take a listen.

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Speaker 3: There's a lot of people that look back at what

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Speaker 3: you said at twenty nineteen when you first ran for president,

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Speaker 3: and there have been changes, and you've talked about some

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Speaker 3: of them. When it comes to immigration, you supported allowing

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Speaker 3: immigrants in the country illegally to apply for driver's license,

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Speaker 3: to qualify for free tuition at universities, to be enrolled

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Speaker 3: in free healthcare.

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Speaker 4: Do you still support those things?

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Speaker 5: Listen, that was five years ago, and I'm very clear

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Speaker 5: that I will follow the law. I make that statement

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Speaker 5: over and over again, and as Vice President of the

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Speaker 5: United States, that's exactly what I've done.

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Speaker 2: Not to mention before you.

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Speaker 3: If that's the case, you chose a running mate, Tim Walls,

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Speaker 3: governor of Minnesota, who signed those very things into state law.

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Speaker 3: So do you support that?

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Speaker 5: We are very clear, and I'm very clear as is

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Speaker 5: Tim Walls, that we must support and enforce federal law,

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Speaker 5: and that is exactly what we will do.

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Speaker 2: That capped about what I would say ten minutes or

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Speaker 2: so on immigration.

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Speaker 1: He started with immigration and stayed there for a long time.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it was I would say it was about half

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Speaker 2: maybe you know, roughly yef something like that worth of

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Speaker 2: the interview. So anyway, I mean, it's one of those

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Speaker 2: where it was obvious that they were going into that

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Speaker 2: that's about the best that she's going to get this whole.

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Speaker 2: I what did she say? It was like, Well, that

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Speaker 2: was five years ago, so that was certainly something I

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Speaker 2: picked up on. I don't know. I mean, you and

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Speaker 2: I have very I usually I think we come into

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Speaker 2: this with the same frame, but I don't this one.

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Speaker 2: I'm mystified. You think she did very well, so.

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Speaker 1: I should be so let me say, first of all,

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Speaker 1: to set up like the totality of the inner Brett bhare,

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Speaker 1: I don't think you would disagree. Very aggressive in a

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Speaker 1: way that he would never be with Trump. Not that

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Speaker 1: he wouldn't ask Trump tough questions. I think he would.

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Speaker 1: But from the very first question, he's cutting her off,

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Speaker 1: doesn't even let her finish a sentence. You know, they're

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Speaker 1: really going back and forth. We'll show you a moment

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Speaker 1: later on where he really deceptively edited this Trump comments

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Speaker 1: about enmy from within. So he clearly came into this

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Speaker 1: thinking like Trump had called out Fox News for even

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Speaker 1: doing this interview and put pressure on obviously Brett Baer

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Speaker 1: in advance of like you better really hold her feet

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Speaker 1: to the fire. He's feeling the pressure of the Fox

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Speaker 1: News audience. And it was very clear that his goal was,

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Speaker 1: like I'm going to be aggressive and I'm going to

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Speaker 1: try to really get her off balance. So you know,

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Speaker 1: on like this question, there is no good answer here

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Speaker 1: for her because she has changed her positions so dramatically

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Speaker 1: on any number of things, and this is always going

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Speaker 1: to be you know, the best she's come up with

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Speaker 1: is like my values haven't changed here. I think she

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Speaker 1: handles what is again effectively an impossible question for her

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Speaker 1: to really be honest about, which the real answer is,

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Speaker 1: you know, politically, in twenty twenty, I was trying to

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Speaker 1: run to the left of Bernie Sanders. Now politically I'm

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Speaker 1: trying to like pivot and appeal to a general election audience,

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Speaker 1: So my pandering strategies have changed. Like, that's the honest answer.

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Speaker 1: She obviously can't give that answer, so to just be like, listen,

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Speaker 1: have I done any of that as Vice President of

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Speaker 1: the United States. No, I've enforced the law. That's what

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Speaker 1: I'll do it going forward. I think that's about the

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Speaker 1: best you could do. My assessment of the overall interview

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Speaker 1: is not that I like love every answer, because obviously

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Speaker 1: I have many significant policy differences with Kamala Harris, in

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Speaker 1: particular on immigration, and also they touched on Israel and

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Speaker 1: Iran later on. Of course, the framing, yeah, the framing

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Speaker 1: of that from Bett Brett Baerr is basically like, you know,

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Speaker 1: why aren't you at war with Iran already? That's the

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Speaker 1: framing of you know, that's not unique to Fox News.

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Speaker 1: That was also the framing the debate. So it's not

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Speaker 1: that I love the substance of her answers on a

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Speaker 1: number of these. But she handled an adversarial interview that

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Speaker 1: was very aggressive and at times actively dishonest better than

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Speaker 1: she handled the view ladies. Which is kind of interesting,

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Speaker 1: right with Kamala. It's all about does she take it

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Speaker 1: seriously and did she prepare. That's why she did so

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Speaker 1: well in the first debate against Joe Biden, That's why

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Speaker 1: she did so well in the debate against Trump. She

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Speaker 1: clearly took this interview very seriously and came prepared. And

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Speaker 1: you know, I don't think there was I know that

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Speaker 1: this is a little bit of a rorshack test that

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Speaker 1: the Trump people think she did terrible or whatever. But

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Speaker 1: she never got thrown off balance. She never spluttered, she

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Speaker 1: never got angry, she did not take the bait when

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Speaker 1: multiple times Brett Baer was trying to get her to

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Speaker 1: like trash Trump supporters, and so yeah, I think in

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Speaker 1: what was a difficult adversarial situation, overall, she handled herself

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Speaker 1: quite well.

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Speaker 2: I'm trying. Look, I'm trying hard to color my bias

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Speaker 2: on this one, but I don't see that at all.

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Speaker 2: I mean, on the immigration answer again, like look, if

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Speaker 2: you're a and again I'm trying to put on the

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Speaker 2: mind of a swing state voter, of somebody who is

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Speaker 2: genuinely independent. So I'll start with what I thought she

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Speaker 2: did well, And actually the Fox people agreed she got

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Speaker 2: her licks in against Trump. Basically every pivot was but Trump,

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Speaker 2: but Trump, but Trump. And we're going to show people

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Speaker 2: some of the clips in a bit about Biden and

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Speaker 2: the inability to address the mental acuity. But that's where

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Speaker 2: she did kind of sput her right on, Well, when

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Speaker 2: did you first notice that Joe Biden's mental faculties had declined? Zero?

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Speaker 2: Answer in terms of immigration. I mean, I thought what

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Speaker 2: was so weak about it was actually just not only

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Speaker 2: the flip flop of the dishonesty around the position, but

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Speaker 2: in the beginning too, there was a lot of trying

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Speaker 2: to basically turn it around as if her administration had

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Speaker 2: no power in this situation. So Brett had asked her

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Speaker 2: a question something on along the lines of like, why

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Speaker 2: have there been X million people illegally led into the

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Speaker 2: country while you were under the while you a vice president?

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Speaker 2: And she dishonestly is like, well, in the first week

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Speaker 2: of Congress, we presented a bill and they didn't pass

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Speaker 2: the bill. And that's why it's the Republican's fault. It's like,

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Speaker 2: hold on a second, as Ryan laid out yesterday, that's

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Speaker 2: an amnesty bill. But second, this is it ignores like

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Speaker 2: all the executive action over that three and a half years.

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Speaker 2: So he kept trying to interrupt her to get at that. Now,

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Speaker 2: I agree it was aggressive, but I mean I don't

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Speaker 2: have an issue with people interrupting politicians. People should interrupt

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Speaker 2: people more. But the point is that on that in particular,

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Speaker 2: for those first ten minutes, the command and the spin

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Speaker 2: just leaped out at me dramatically. Again, if you if

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Speaker 2: you don't have a deep familiarity with amnesty bills and

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Speaker 2: all that, like, maybe that came across differently. She certainly

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Speaker 2: stood her ground, I think for what liberals could take

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Speaker 2: away as like, yeah, she stood up to Brett Baer

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Speaker 2: and to Fox News. There's no question it was aggressive

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Speaker 2: as hell. Right, it really was like the lions Den.

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Speaker 2: We should give politicians props, they should do more of that.

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Speaker 2: So I don't want to totally discourage you, but I

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Speaker 2: don't know how we could classify that as good as

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Speaker 2: a good performance.

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Speaker 1: Here's what I would say. I mean, Trump is reportedly

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Speaker 1: literally calling her retarded. So you can't look at this

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Speaker 1: interview and be like this person. She really held her

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Speaker 1: own and was able to pivot. I thought Brett asked

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Speaker 1: her a, you know, really challenging question, played the clip

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Speaker 1: of her talking about the transgender surgeries in prison, and

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Speaker 1: she actually had a great response. She was like, number one,

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Speaker 1: this happened under Trump, So when did you ask him

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Speaker 1: about that? And number two, he's spending two hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty million dollars on these ads. Do you really think

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Speaker 1: this issue is like top of mind for Americans to

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Speaker 1: try and pay their bills, et cetera. And again, that's

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Speaker 1: a very very challenging question for her to have to

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Speaker 1: deal with, given how she's trying to like buck the

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Speaker 1: two liberal label et cetera, et cetera in her campaign strategy,

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Speaker 1: which is to shift to the right. That's a very

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Speaker 1: challenging question, and I thought that was about as good

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Speaker 1: an answer as you could possibly give. Also, another highlight

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Speaker 1: in my opinion from her was he was asking her like, Okay, well,

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Speaker 1: if Trump is so bad, why is half the country

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Speaker 1: set to vowarm? She was like, it's a presidential election,

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Speaker 1: it's not supposed to be easy. And I also thought

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Speaker 1: that was a fantastic answer, because you know, he again

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Speaker 1: challenging question. He wanted her to give him some clippable moment,

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Speaker 1: like basically calling the Trump based deplorable or whatever. And

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Speaker 1: yet he tried to get her to go down that path,

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Speaker 1: and she just wouldn't do it at all. As you said,

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Speaker 1: she kept pivoting back to Trump and her position on that.

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Speaker 1: So no, overall, I thought, in a very challenging circumstance,

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Speaker 1: she handled herself quite well and certainly exceeded my expectations

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Speaker 1: of what she was even really capable of in the circumstances.

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Speaker 1: And so that's kind of my point is, like, you know,

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Speaker 1: the caricature, which has been at times really justly deserved

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Speaker 1: of Kamala Harris is that she can't think on her feet.

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Speaker 1: If she's off the teleprompter, it's just a hot mess.

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Speaker 1: You know that she's word salad and all over the place,

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Speaker 1: And we didn't see that in this In this exchange,

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Speaker 1: she was quite capable and competent, and you know, proved

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Speaker 1: that she deserved to be in that slot. And so

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Speaker 1: when I think about swing voters and how they might

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Speaker 1: process this, Number One I don't really think swing voters

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Speaker 1: really are processing this. To be honest with you, I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure not. I mean, I don't know what's going

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Speaker 1: to move people at this point. I have no idea.

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Speaker 1: But it's probably more likely to be you know, the

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Speaker 1: podcast appearance with or the appearance with Charlemagne or some

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Speaker 1: of the more cultural figures than it is a Fox

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Speaker 1: News interview. But some of this might break through. But

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Speaker 1: if you're just looking at that in the vibe, you're like, oh,

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Speaker 1: this is a capable person, Like this is a strong person.

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Speaker 1: This is a tough person. She's able to hold her

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Speaker 1: own and push back. And so that's why I think

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Speaker 1: that she did herself some favors in this interview, not

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Speaker 1: just with Democrats who were very happy with her performance,

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Speaker 1: but with those potential swing.

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Speaker 2: Voters as well. See I didn't get the competent part. Again,

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Speaker 2: I'm trying hard to color my bias here, but I

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Speaker 2: didn't see it. It's let's let's play a wrong track answer.

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Speaker 2: For example, we need to play more of this for people.

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Speaker 4: Of people.

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Speaker 5: That is about turning the page on rhetoric that people

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Speaker 5: are frankly exhausted of bread more than to.

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Speaker 3: Tell the country is on the wrong track. They say

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Speaker 3: the country is on the wrong track. If it's on

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Speaker 3: the wrong track, that track follows three and a half

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Speaker 3: years of you being vice president and President Biden being president.

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Speaker 3: That is what they're saying, seventy nine percent of them.

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Speaker 3: Why are they saying that? If you're turning the page,

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Speaker 3: You've been in office for three and a half years.

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Speaker 5: And Donald Trump has been running for office.

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Speaker 4: But you've been the person home on some what you.

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Speaker 6: And I both know what I'm talking about. You and

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Speaker 6: I both know what.

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Speaker 4: I'm actually do. What are you talking about?

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Speaker 5: What I'm talking about is that over the last decade,

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Speaker 5: people have the cower. But listen, over the last decade,

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Speaker 5: it is clear to me and certainly the Republicans who

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Speaker 5: are on stage with me, the former chief of staff

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Speaker 5: to the President Donald Trump, the former defense secretaries, national

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Speaker 5: security advisor, and his vice president one that he is

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Speaker 5: unfit to serve, that he is unstable, that he is dangerous,

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Speaker 5: and that.

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Speaker 6: People are exhausted.

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Speaker 3: Well, people aren't tired of that, that's the case. Why

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Speaker 3: is half the country supporting him? Why is he beating

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Speaker 3: you in a lot of swing states? Why if he's

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Speaker 3: as bad as you say that half of this country

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Speaker 3: is now supporting this person who could be the forty

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Speaker 3: seventh president of the United States.

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Speaker 4: Why is that happening.

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Speaker 5: This is an election for president of the United States.

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Speaker 5: It's not supposed to be easy.

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Speaker 4: I know, but it's not supposed.

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Speaker 6: To be It is not supposed.

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Speaker 3: To be a misguided, stupid what God.

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Speaker 6: I would never say that about the American people.

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Speaker 5: And in fact, if you listen to Donald Trump, if

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Speaker 5: you watch any of his rallies, he's the one who

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Speaker 5: tends to demean and belittle and diminish the American people.

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Speaker 6: He's the one who talks about an enemy within, an.

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Speaker 5: Enemy within, talking about the American people, suggesting he would

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Speaker 5: turn the American military on the American people.

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Speaker 2: So I don't disagree to that last part, But on

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Speaker 2: that wrong track, that was a skillful thing, right, But

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Speaker 2: on the wrong track. She was like, listen, you know

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Speaker 2: Trump has been around for ten years. That's a terrible

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Speaker 2: Like when I watched that live, I actually cringed at

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Speaker 2: the She was like, oh, well, Trump has been around,

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Speaker 2: you know what I'm talking about. He's like, I don't

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Speaker 2: know what you're talking about, actually, And honestly, I don't

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Speaker 2: know what she's talking about, like the idea that because

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Speaker 2: Trump has been in politics for a decade, that you're

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Speaker 2: not responsible for the direction of the country. And look,

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Speaker 2: if we're being honest, was she running the country? Like

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Speaker 2: obviously no, right, she's the freaking vice president. But she's

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Speaker 2: also the one who doesn't want to put any real

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Speaker 2: distance between herself and Joe Biden, which we're about to

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Speaker 2: get into in a little bit. And so that answer,

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Speaker 2: I thought it was her worst because the seventy nine

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Speaker 2: percent on wrong track, the perfect idea of like, well,

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Speaker 2: don't you bear some responsibility for this? There's no answer

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Speaker 2: but Trump, Now, I want to be clear, you might

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Speaker 2: win based on that. As we see, Trump is a

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Speaker 2: very polarizing figure, and he's certainly they are running the

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Speaker 2: same case that Hillary and Biden did, Biden obviously a

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Speaker 2: little bit more effectively. That Trump is a unique threat

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Speaker 2: and all of that, and the Trump specter is bad.

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Speaker 2: And you know, she basically at every turn pivoted towards

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Speaker 2: don Trump. But if you look at those swing state

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Speaker 2: polls and you see the number one reasons that people

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Speaker 2: are not supporting her, it's number one. I don't know

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Speaker 2: what you're actually gonna do. But two is I'm really

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Speaker 2: unsatisfied with the direction of the country right now, and

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Speaker 2: so for me, but Trump, I mean, that's not a

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Speaker 2: competent answer, Like, that's not one that is well thought out.

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Speaker 2: It is not one of a new vision. What is it.

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Speaker 2: The closest that she got was just my presidency won't

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Speaker 2: be a continuation of Joe Biden. That is not a

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Speaker 2: strong declaration of change. And what is empirically a change

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Speaker 2: election now, change is interpreted very differently by very many people.

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Speaker 2: So that's why I was like, if you're watching this,

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Speaker 2: you're a swing state person, I don't know how you couldn't,

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Speaker 2: like feel how you could feel satisfied with an answer

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Speaker 2: like that. Put the policy aside, just appear like, hey,

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Speaker 2: I want something to change wrong track. And she's like,

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Speaker 2: but Donald Trump, that that doesn't seem to cut it. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I disagree.

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Speaker 1: So here's what I would say, first of all, on

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Speaker 1: the on the latter part that we more or less

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Speaker 1: agree on, Yeah, you should never fallow continuinely continually they're

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Speaker 1: trying to be her into trashing Trump support evens oh,

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Speaker 1: what would you call them?

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Speaker 2: This guide?

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Speaker 1: And she's like no, and then she skillfully pivots to

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Speaker 1: but the other guy. He's doing that all day long.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, you don't have a whole lot

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Speaker 1: to say about that, and we'll get to the very

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Speaker 1: dishonest framing of the enemy within commas that he does

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Speaker 1: in a moment. But what she's referring to, I think

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Speaker 1: we all know, like this is the Trump era, and

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Speaker 1: the dissatisfaction with the state of the country certainly predates

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Speaker 1: their time when offic was. In fact, I went back

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Speaker 1: and looked it up after January sixth, the right Track

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Speaker 1: number was at eleven percent. I remember that eleven percent.

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Speaker 1: So listen, do Joe Biden, Kama Harris bear plenty of

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Speaker 1: responsibility for people being dissatisfied? Of course they do. And

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Speaker 1: given the fact that she has decided she is not

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Speaker 1: really going to break with Biden on anything, including a

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Speaker 1: disastrous policy in the Middle East, where she one hundred

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Speaker 1: percent should break with Joe Biden, given that that's the

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Speaker 1: landscape that she's showed in the political strategy that she's chosen. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think this is about as good as you can give.

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Speaker 1: And it's not without some merit, because again, let's all

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Speaker 1: be honest, this is not the Joe Biden era of

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Speaker 1: politics that we're living in. It's the Donald Trump era

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Speaker 1: of politics. He has defined all of the fault lines

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Speaker 1: in American politics since he wrote down that Golden Escalator.

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Speaker 1: And that's how you end up with you know, Liz

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Speaker 1: Cheney on one side and you know RFK Junior on

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Speaker 1: the other. It's all just about it's not about issues.

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Speaker 1: It's just all about how you feel about this particular person.

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Speaker 4: You know.

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Speaker 1: It gets to like what Tim Walls talks about this

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Speaker 1: just very normally, like wouldn't you like to go back

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Speaker 1: to the Thanksgiving dinner table and not have it be

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Speaker 1: ugly and vitriolic and just be able to have like

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Speaker 1: normal discussions. Again, it's really Donald Trump who has defined

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Speaker 1: the contours of this era. And so yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 1: is it kind of like politician easily to get out

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Speaker 1: of any responsibility for of course it is, like, of course,

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Speaker 1: I would be dishonest if I didn't say that. But

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Speaker 1: she's also not without a point that he really has

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Speaker 1: has been the central character defining the tenor tone and

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Speaker 1: direction of politics. And it's part of what to me

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Speaker 1: is so frustrating about this era because it does make

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Speaker 1: it impossible to really have policy discussions about the future

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Speaker 1: of the country and you know, really be able to

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Speaker 1: vote based on those things. Because he everything just becomes

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Speaker 1: this dividing line about your personal opinion in the person

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Speaker 1: of Donald Trump, and it kind of shuts down all

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Speaker 1: other forms of politics. So, you know, is it one

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Speaker 1: hundred percent honest, No, of course, But does she have

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Speaker 1: a point that he is the defining character of this

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Speaker 1: era and that there are millions upon millions of people,

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Speaker 1: including plenty of swing voters. And we'll get to this

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Speaker 1: in the poll section, especially like you know, suburban women,

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Speaker 1: of abortion, all kinds of other things. Are there millions

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Speaker 1: of voters who have put aside all kinds of other

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Speaker 1: concerns or policy priorities to just like vote against Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump because they want this era to be over and

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Speaker 1: they don't want to quote unquote go back as KMin

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Speaker 1: has been framed me. Yeah, there are. And so I

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Speaker 1: do say think that that speaks to a central concern

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Speaker 1: that a lot of people have in the sense that

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Speaker 1: this era has been exhausting and they want to turn

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Speaker 1: the page from it.

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: On a vibe level, I totally understand what you're saying,

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Speaker 2: But I mean, and I think a lot of the

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Speaker 2: people who agree with that frame are already voting for her.

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Speaker 2: So all the people who are on the fence about

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Speaker 2: where to go, a lot of them do remember the

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Speaker 2: Trump era fondly, and they don't remember the Biden years

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Speaker 2: as good, in particular on inflation and elsewhere. Now to

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Speaker 2: your point about the whole enemy within thing, this is

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Speaker 2: I agree, this was a pretty egregious mistake. Or I

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Speaker 2: don't know, but maybe possibly it was the way that

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Speaker 2: they wanted to frame it. But she kept bringing up

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Speaker 2: the enemy within comments. We covered them on our show

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Speaker 2: on Tuesday previously. People can go back and watch it.

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Speaker 2: But she brought that up repeatedly in the interview. Just

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Speaker 2: at the end there, as you saw, they decided to

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Speaker 2: play a clip of Trump responding on that topic at

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Speaker 2: a Fox News town hall, but not actually the comments themselves,

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Speaker 2: and that was, in my opinion, this is the one

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Speaker 2: that's going the most viral. Yeah, from what I've seen

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Speaker 2: amongst the left, ye go.

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Speaker 1: And just a minor correction on that. So it's not

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Speaker 1: just that they played his response in a town hall.

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Speaker 1: They edited out the first part of his response where

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Speaker 1: he doubled down in these comments and also said what

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Speaker 1: I mean by that is, you know Pelosi, ship, et cetera.

434
00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:18,919
Speaker 1: So they took the one portion of his comments that

435
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,040
Speaker 1: they could use to spin it as see, he doesn't

436
00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:23,600
Speaker 1: mean that, he's being totally reasonable and left out the

437
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:26,840
Speaker 1: part from their own event where he was like, no,

438
00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:27,840
Speaker 1: I mean the left.

439
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:30,400
Speaker 2: I mean, in my opinion, that's stupid, because you should

440
00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:32,600
Speaker 2: just play the damn comment if you're going to play anything,

441
00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:34,119
Speaker 2: and it might be I wouldn't played anything. I just

442
00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:35,680
Speaker 2: left the lady to talk because I think that that's

443
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:37,200
Speaker 2: one of those But if you're going to play something,

444
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:40,000
Speaker 2: you shouldn't be editing this stuff down anyway. So let's

445
00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:40,680
Speaker 2: take a listen to.

446
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:42,680
Speaker 4: That question to the former president.

447
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:46,040
Speaker 3: Today, Harris Faulkner had a town hall and this is

448
00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:46,879
Speaker 3: how he responded.

449
00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:50,920
Speaker 8: I heard about that they were saying. I was like threatening,

450
00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:53,920
Speaker 8: I'm not threatening anybody. They're the ones doing the threatening.

451
00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:58,520
Speaker 8: They do phony investigations. I've been investigated more than Alphonse Capon.

452
00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:01,080
Speaker 4: He was the greatest nection. Know it's true, we don't

453
00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:01,639
Speaker 4: but think of it.

454
00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:04,320
Speaker 8: It's called weaponization of government. It's a terrible there.

455
00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 5: So I'm sorry, and with all due respect, that clip

456
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 5: was not what he has been saying about the enemy

457
00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:16,080
Speaker 5: within that he has repeated when he's speaking about the

458
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:16,800
Speaker 5: American people.

459
00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:18,080
Speaker 6: That's not what you just showed.

460
00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:18,800
Speaker 4: He was asking.

461
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:21,000
Speaker 5: No, no, no, that's not what you just showed. In

462
00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:22,880
Speaker 5: all fairness and respect.

463
00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:24,399
Speaker 4: To you, the question that we asked him.

464
00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:26,720
Speaker 6: He didn't show that. And here's the bottom line.

465
00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:29,399
Speaker 5: He has repeated it many times, and you and I

466
00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:32,639
Speaker 5: both know that. And you and I both know that

467
00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:35,240
Speaker 5: he has talked about turning the American military on the

468
00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:36,080
Speaker 5: American people.

469
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:38,600
Speaker 6: He has talked about going.

470
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:41,399
Speaker 5: After people who are engaged in peaceful protest. He has

471
00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:45,600
Speaker 5: talked about locking people up because they disagree with him.

472
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 5: This is a democracy, and in a democracy, the president

473
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:53,199
Speaker 5: of the United States, in the United States of America

474
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:57,920
Speaker 5: should be willing to be able to handle criticism without

475
00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:01,919
Speaker 5: saying he'd lock people up doing it. And this is

476
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,520
Speaker 5: what is at stake, which is why you have someone

477
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 5: like the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

478
00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:12,200
Speaker 5: saying what Mark Milly has said about Donald Trump being

479
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:15,960
Speaker 5: a threat to the United States of America.

480
00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:18,440
Speaker 2: So yeah, there you go, Like, I agree, it wasn't good,

481
00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 2: but you know that's where you were saying previously she

482
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:22,160
Speaker 2: didn't get angry. She actually did kind of get angry.

483
00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 2: I mean, maybe it's effective or not, but it was

484
00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 2: clear like she was really roaring to go at it.

485
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:31,160
Speaker 2: Now from what Brett said, Brett was like, I think

486
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 2: she came into this she wanted to score some good

487
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:36,639
Speaker 2: hits against Trump on Fox News. And He's like, I

488
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 2: think she accomplished that. He was like, I also think

489
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:40,640
Speaker 2: that she came into this one to score some good

490
00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 2: hits against us, and like that clearly was the moment

491
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:46,159
Speaker 2: that they were looking for. From what I've seen, like

492
00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:48,440
Speaker 2: on the liberal side, that's the one that's probably gone

493
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:49,240
Speaker 2: the most viral.

494
00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 4: I agree.

495
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:50,640
Speaker 2: It means I do on think it's a good look

496
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:52,119
Speaker 2: for Fox. They should just play the damn comments. I

497
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:53,000
Speaker 2: don't know why they did that.

498
00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:53,159
Speaker 4: Well.

499
00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 1: It also just makes it like it takes it on

500
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:57,480
Speaker 1: of the realm of debatable whether it was like a

501
00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 1: fair and just tough interview or whether it was dishonest Partison,

502
00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 1: because we can show you what he actually said. So

503
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 1: what they did is they took out, they clipped out

504
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:10,560
Speaker 1: the peace of his answer that they thought best served

505
00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:13,200
Speaker 1: their ends to be like, hey, it doesn't mean that

506
00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:16,679
Speaker 1: come on, you know, Donald Trump, he's just joking around

507
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 1: when literally they're same event. When he was actually asked

508
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 1: that question, his first response was to double down and say, no,

509
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:27,399
Speaker 1: I do mean my political opponents. So let's take a

510
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:31,240
Speaker 1: listen in contrast to what he actually said in response,

511
00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 1: so you can see just how dishonest it was.

512
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:36,359
Speaker 9: They're using your words to say that you are not

513
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:40,320
Speaker 9: for crime and keeping particularly women safe in ads. I

514
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:42,399
Speaker 9: want to take a look at what you said and

515
00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:44,280
Speaker 9: just tell me.

516
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:46,679
Speaker 6: Let's let's watch it if we have to.

517
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, we have two enemies.

518
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 8: We have the outside enemy and then we have the

519
00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:54,760
Speaker 8: enemy from within. And the enemy from within, in my opinion,

520
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:57,880
Speaker 8: is more dangerous in China, Russia and all these countries

521
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 8: because if you have a smart president can handle them

522
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 8: pretty easily. But the thing that's tougher to handle these

523
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:08,879
Speaker 8: lunatics that we have inside, like Adam Schiff, I call

524
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:10,160
Speaker 8: him the enemy from within.

525
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 9: Mister President. Kamala Harris said, you sounded unhinged and unchecked

526
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:16,680
Speaker 9: power is in our future.

527
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 4: What I thought it was a nice presentation.

528
00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 6: I wasn't.

529
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:22,199
Speaker 4: I wasn't an unhinged you.

530
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:25,639
Speaker 8: Know they are. They're a party of sound bites there.

531
00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 8: Somebody asked me, can they be brought together? You know,

532
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 8: it's very I never thought, really, I wasn't thinking like

533
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:37,639
Speaker 8: they could because they are they're very different, and it

534
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 8: is the enemy from within and they're very dangerous.

535
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,439
Speaker 1: So anyway, there you go. It's like that's what he

536
00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:46,199
Speaker 1: actually said. And so clearly they knew she was going

537
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:49,040
Speaker 1: to bring that up, right because this has been, you

538
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 1: know me, for good reason, a major point they've been

539
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 1: bringing up on the trail in recent days, and so

540
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 1: in order to rebutt it, they picked out this incredibly

541
00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:03,120
Speaker 1: like just decept version of what he's been saying about this,

542
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:05,159
Speaker 1: so they can see, you know, he's fine, what are

543
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:08,439
Speaker 1: you talking about? There's nothing, no problem there. And you

544
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 1: know that's where, like I said, it gave her an opportunity. Now,

545
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:14,080
Speaker 1: the thing is that Kamala Harris doesn't always rise to

546
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:17,719
Speaker 1: those opportunities like this gave her a chance both to

547
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 1: go against Donald Trump, to really articulate in a forceful

548
00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 1: way how disturbing and disgraceful she thinks those comments and

549
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:27,200
Speaker 1: others are right in a way that Look, we saw

550
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:29,320
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two, these sorts of concerns about Donald

551
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:31,680
Speaker 1: Trump do animate a lot of voters and have been

552
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 1: successful for Democrats in terms of electoral performance. And she

553
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:39,160
Speaker 1: gets a chance to push back on Fox News and

554
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:42,320
Speaker 1: you know, call out Brett for not showing the full

555
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:45,480
Speaker 1: context here and not actually showing the comments that Trump made.

556
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 1: So it's a good moment for her with the basse.

557
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:48,520
Speaker 1: I also think it's a good moment for her with

558
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:50,960
Speaker 1: any potential swing voters. Again, as I said before, how

559
00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:52,840
Speaker 1: much does this any of this matter? I don't know really,

560
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:55,399
Speaker 1: but anyway, I thought that was, like you said, soccer,

561
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 1: probably her strongest moment, Oh, definitely in this interview.

562
00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 2: Now to the weakest think Actually maybe I don't know,

563
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 2: most journalistically, the most consequential electorally, I'm not so sure.

564
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:10,119
Speaker 2: This is on Biden's mental acuity. I thought this was

565
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 2: absolutely her worst answer of the night. Let's take a.

566
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:20,600
Speaker 3: Lesson called Donald Trump, He's misguided. You say, now, he's unstable,

567
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:23,800
Speaker 3: he is unstable, he's not well, you say, he's mentally

568
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:25,359
Speaker 3: not stable.

569
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:26,400
Speaker 4: Ask you this, and.

570
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 3: You told interviewers that Joe Biden was on his game

571
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:33,159
Speaker 3: that ran around circles on his staff. When did you

572
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 3: first notice that President Biden's mental faculties appeared diminished.

573
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 6: Joe Biden.

574
00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:44,280
Speaker 5: I have watched in from the Oval office to the

575
00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:49,159
Speaker 5: situation room, and he has the judgment and the experiment

576
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:52,399
Speaker 5: and experienced to do exactly what he has done and

577
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 5: making very important decisions on behalf of the American people.

578
00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 6: Joe Biden is not on ballot, understand Donald Trump.

579
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:04,360
Speaker 5: Donald Trump, he talked about it and Donald George Cloon.

580
00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:07,399
Speaker 3: Within a few minutes of talking to Biden a fundraiser,

581
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:09,960
Speaker 3: that he thought this was not the same Joe Biden

582
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 3: that we saw on the debate.

583
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:11,879
Speaker 10: Stay.

584
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:13,119
Speaker 6: Trump is on the ballot.

585
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:15,760
Speaker 3: I understand you met with him at least once a

586
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 3: week for three and a half years.

587
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 4: You didn't have any concerns.

588
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:23,440
Speaker 5: I think the American people have a concern about Donald Trump,

589
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 5: which is why the people who know him best, including

590
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:32,680
Speaker 5: leaders of our national security community, have all spoken out,

591
00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 5: even people who worked for him.

592
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 2: All right, Yeah, I mean I thought that was wild.

593
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:38,240
Speaker 2: It was like, Joe Biden, what did he say? He

594
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:40,480
Speaker 2: has done what he has done for the American people,

595
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 2: And then it was Joe Biden is not on the ballot, which, frankly,

596
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 2: you should be saying that a lot more. But there

597
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:48,880
Speaker 2: is no real distance. The only other line, I guess

598
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 2: we didn't have it in there was maybe park What

599
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:51,680
Speaker 2: do you think.

600
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:53,160
Speaker 1: Would be the best answer for her here?

601
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 2: That's a little bit. Did any amount of gaslighting that

602
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,040
Speaker 2: these people did? It's like, I don't really know because

603
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:00,200
Speaker 2: he hasn't dead to right.

604
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 1: If yeah, that's that's the problem, is like there is

605
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:05,359
Speaker 1: no good answer really to this question, because if you admit,

606
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 1: like I've been seeing this dude going downhill for a while,

607
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 1: which is probably the honest answer, Like, you can't really

608
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:17,919
Speaker 1: say that, right, So I think I think it's going

609
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:21,160
Speaker 1: to be very important question for history. Who knew what when?

610
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:22,400
Speaker 1: With regard to Joe Biden.

611
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,199
Speaker 2: Oh, I've been reading Bob Woodward's more recent book, and

612
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:26,480
Speaker 2: there's some wild stuff in that.

613
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 1: And I think, you know this, this tape will be

614
00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:32,439
Speaker 1: entered into the annals of history in terms of, you know,

615
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 1: the level of spin and the level of gas lighting

616
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 1: of the American people that occurred at the time. As

617
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 1: a political matter, I don't know that there's really a

618
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 1: better answer that she could give than listen, it's not

619
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:45,640
Speaker 1: him on the ballot. He's fine, well and good, and

620
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 1: I saw make great decisions and it was all fine.

621
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 1: And you know, I'm not admitting any wrongdoing here on

622
00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:52,960
Speaker 1: my behalf because I was covering anything up and Donald

623
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:55,560
Speaker 1: Trump is really where the focus is. And frankly, you know,

624
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 1: I actually thought that these questions would be more of

625
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:01,120
Speaker 1: a sticking point for the American people after the you know,

626
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:03,880
Speaker 1: switch from Biden to Kamala. But I actually think most

627
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:06,000
Speaker 1: people do feel the way she articulated, like, all right,

628
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 1: he's that's the past. We're moving forward. It's me versus

629
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,520
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. So let's talk about that. So yeah, is

630
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 1: it like, is it dishonest? Yes, it's dishonest. Is a

631
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 1: great look for her to a tough Gordon? Of course not.

632
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 1: But I'm not sure that there was really a better

633
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:24,720
Speaker 1: answer on the table for her to give, at least

634
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 1: I'm not smart enough to really come up with one.

635
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:29,320
Speaker 1: Given like the position she's taked down.

636
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 2: I was gonna say, I just you know the answers.

637
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 2: Don't put yourself in that position. It's an insane one.

638
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 2: I don't disagree. Actually, Americans have an amazing capacity for

639
00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 2: temporary amnesia. But from the assassination attempt.

640
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:42,520
Speaker 1: They were just so relieved he stepped aside. I think

641
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:44,640
Speaker 1: they were like, all right, he stepped aside.

642
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 5: He did.

643
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 1: At the end of the day, he did the thing

644
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 1: he was supposed to do. Now, I would say it's

645
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:52,720
Speaker 1: unconscionable he's still even occupying the White House, given the

646
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 1: fact that, I mean, we really were on the brink

647
00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 1: of a massive war in the Middle East. We really

648
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 1: have no sense of who's actually making these decisions. I'm

649
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 1: not sure whether it's better or worse for him to

650
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 1: be making the decisions or Bret McGirk or these other,

651
00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 1: you know, genocidal terrorists that apparently are cool with what

652
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:12,400
Speaker 1: we're doing in the Middle East. So, you know, I

653
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 1: think it's unconscionable that we're in that place. But I

654
00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 1: also have to acknowledge the political reality that most people

655
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 1: are like, hell, he stepped aside, so we're moving forward.

656
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's certainly possible. So there you go. That was

657
00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:28,120
Speaker 2: the review of everything there Trump. Let's move to him.

658
00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 2: He participated in two town halls yesterday. One was with

659
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:34,920
Speaker 2: Fox News. It was a Fox News women town hall.

660
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:37,680
Speaker 2: It does appear, by the way, from Michael Tracy's reporting

661
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:39,640
Speaker 2: that a lot of these ladies were like pro Trump

662
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 2: already Republican activists. You know, this has been a real issue.

663
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:44,960
Speaker 2: I just want to say this at the top, because

664
00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 2: all of these town halls. So Univision did a town

665
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 2: hall with Kamala a couple of days ago. There was

666
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 2: actually not that much that came out of it. I

667
00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 2: listened to most of it, and I realized why from

668
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 2: what Tracy said, because he was in attendance. Yeah, is

669
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 2: that most of those people were basically like organized by

670
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:03,000
Speaker 2: some Democrat cutout group. Same thing on this one. And then,

671
00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 2: by the way, there was another Univision town hall just

672
00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 2: last night with Donald Trump where apparently it was the

673
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 2: same thing where a lot of these people were actually

674
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 2: paid to attend, and so.

675
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 1: They went a modeling. This is on Michael Tracy. The

676
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 1: audience numbers were paid by a modeling agency that contracted me.

677
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:17,280
Speaker 4: Yeah.

678
00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:20,400
Speaker 2: So anyways, the point is, like, you know, even these

679
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 2: town halls are becoming a total farce. But regardless, we

680
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 2: got some things that are out of it. Here is

681
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:27,760
Speaker 2: Donald Trump answering a question on immigration.

682
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:30,040
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen to your President Trump.

683
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:31,920
Speaker 11: Thank you so much for everything you have done for

684
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 11: this country. You fight first in the past, you fight

685
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 11: first right now, and I know you will fight for

686
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 11: us in the future. My name is Stream England and

687
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:45,320
Speaker 11: my family escaped the communist Vietnam thirty years ago. And

688
00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 11: this is my question for you. America is a land

689
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 11: of opportunity and it's policy welcome immigrants legally. How different

690
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 11: is your policy versus Harris when it comes to securing

691
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:02,760
Speaker 11: our borders and only accepting people to us without causing

692
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 11: any issue to our country.

693
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 2: On the borders, Well, people coming legally.

694
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 8: Yeah, we want to have as many people come in

695
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 8: as possible, but they have to come in legally. We

696
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:17,000
Speaker 8: don't want murderers, we don't want drug dealers, we don't

697
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 8: want human traffickers, we don't want people from prison that

698
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 8: are being let out after murdering somebody.

699
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:25,360
Speaker 2: All right, just took a lot of shots at Commas.

700
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:30,040
Speaker 2: Now it's Trump's turn. This is basically in total violation

701
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 2: of everything Trump has previously said ever on immigration, including

702
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:35,520
Speaker 2: all of the people who work for them. Why do

703
00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:37,200
Speaker 2: I know this because I literally cover the White House

704
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 2: and I also know a lot of these people, so

705
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:40,800
Speaker 2: I know that if any Democrats said this that they

706
00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 2: would freak out. But this is pure If you want

707
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 2: to really look at elon Musk's like major contribution to

708
00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:50,719
Speaker 2: Donald Trump. I would put this all the way up

709
00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 2: at the top for the all in and elon Silicon

710
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:59,640
Speaker 2: Valley support because this is a classic Silicon Valley talking point.

711
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 2: We have to have as many people who come in

712
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 2: as possible. We just have to secure our border. I mean,

713
00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:08,320
Speaker 2: that is like the previous that's like a twenty twenty Democratic,

714
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 2: a twenty twenty Democratic Party position on immigration. And part

715
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 2: of the problem for a lot of Republicans is there

716
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 2: are not people who have any like credibility on the

717
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:21,320
Speaker 2: issue with the base or frankly on anything to be

718
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:24,720
Speaker 2: able to call Trump out. There's no internal policing on

719
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 2: this literally that exists. The money is behind it, and

720
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 2: a lot of the immigration people just I mean, look,

721
00:33:30,160 --> 00:33:31,920
Speaker 2: I get it to a certain extent because they're like

722
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:33,960
Speaker 2: I think the Democrats be worse, so they just don't

723
00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 2: say anything. But you know you're gonna if you're going

724
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 2: to police like like, for example, I know Jade Vans

725
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:40,760
Speaker 2: doesn't agree with this, I know for sure he's never

726
00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:43,400
Speaker 2: said anything like this in the past. But a lot

727
00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:45,400
Speaker 2: of the people who are on the Republican side, they

728
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 2: just let a lot of the stuff slide. I think

729
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 2: it's nuts.

730
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, if his position is genuinely like

731
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:56,440
Speaker 1: let us he said, what let as many people as possible.

732
00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:58,440
Speaker 2: That's an insane thing to say. As a Republican who's

733
00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 2: an immigration restriction, that is literally an insane thing to say.

734
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 2: And for everybody out there is we support high skilled

735
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:06,560
Speaker 2: immigration and all that. Even people who support high skilled

736
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:10,279
Speaker 2: immigration support caps and numbers of what that should look like.

737
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 2: First of all, Trump has not even said anything about

738
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:14,839
Speaker 2: high skilled immigration a lot in the past except what

739
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:17,840
Speaker 2: did you say, staple of THESA to every PhD in

740
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:20,880
Speaker 2: the country. Sounds like a real genius money laundering operation

741
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:23,920
Speaker 2: for every university. But okay, move past.

742
00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:25,719
Speaker 6: I support the.

743
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:28,400
Speaker 1: I support the let as many people in as possible,

744
00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:28,959
Speaker 1: That's my point.

745
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 2: But it's crazy if you really believe in immigration restriction.

746
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 2: This is a horrible thing for the country. Especially this

747
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:39,400
Speaker 2: is the basic position of comprehensive immigration reform, which is

748
00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:43,200
Speaker 2: legalize everybody here and then just throw it all wide open.

749
00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:46,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, but he's still wants to do the like, you know, uh,

750
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:51,120
Speaker 1: mass deportation. You know, round everybody up in every town,

751
00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:53,560
Speaker 1: including some of the people who are here legally like

752
00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 1: the Haitian migrants in Springfield, o Hioive.

753
00:34:57,120 --> 00:34:58,520
Speaker 2: So let's go back.

754
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:01,799
Speaker 1: So in any case, he's it's not like he's gone

755
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:03,840
Speaker 1: soft on these things. It's just, you know, after his

756
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:06,760
Speaker 1: what do you call it, like very bloody, very bloody

757
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:10,840
Speaker 1: immigration roundup that then I guess, at least an answer

758
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:13,560
Speaker 1: to this woman who's herself an immigrant, he says we

759
00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:15,360
Speaker 1: should let his man this. Who the fuck knows what

760
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:17,399
Speaker 1: this man wants to do or what he really means.

761
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:20,520
Speaker 1: It's just, you know, it is I think your point

762
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:23,799
Speaker 1: is the most important one, which is the people who

763
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:27,920
Speaker 1: claim their whole politics around immigration restriction. I am not

764
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 1: one the people who are on that side. They will

765
00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 1: hear this and they will say not yeah.

766
00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:34,800
Speaker 2: And that's word. Well, that's what bothers me is that Trump.

767
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:37,640
Speaker 1: It's the culture personality. Ultimately, that's what it is.

768
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:40,840
Speaker 2: It has to be called out, no matter and especially allegedly,

769
00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:42,960
Speaker 2: you know, by the so called like leader of the party,

770
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:45,520
Speaker 2: because these things do matter. Look, I get we're in

771
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 2: a nothing matters era, but you know that actually is

772
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:51,799
Speaker 2: the default position of the old school GOP, of which

773
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:55,359
Speaker 2: Trump has always claimed to move past. So which is it?

774
00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 2: And I do know that Trump, in particular this time around,

775
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:01,960
Speaker 2: is much more amenable to whatever the highest bidder wants

776
00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 2: him to do and a huge amount of his new

777
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 2: Silicon Valley money, like this is the position that they have.

778
00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:10,759
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think the main point is that on

779
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 2: the act, amongst like actual immigration people, I see very

780
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:17,480
Speaker 2: very few who are actually attacking Donald Trump. I get it. Yeah,

781
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 2: maybe you'd be better or whatever, but that doesn't mean

782
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:21,920
Speaker 2: that you want to let standard bearer to have this position.

783
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:24,880
Speaker 2: Let's move on to IVF. This Trump has stold this

784
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:27,719
Speaker 2: story before. I've heard this, but it is one of

785
00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 2: the most wild like twist and turns and actually great

786
00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:33,399
Speaker 2: insight into how he makes decisions. So I just talked

787
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 2: about how he's impressionable. It depends on who he's talking to,

788
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:38,719
Speaker 2: regardless of how he arrives. So here is the backstory

789
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 2: on how Trump arrived at being pro IVF. Let's take

790
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 2: a list.

791
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:45,719
Speaker 8: I got a call from Katie Britt, a young, just

792
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:50,400
Speaker 8: a fantastically attractive person from Alabama. She's a senator, and

793
00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:54,000
Speaker 8: she called me up like emergency emergency, because an Alabama

794
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:57,319
Speaker 8: judge had ruled that the IVF clinics were illegal and

795
00:36:57,360 --> 00:37:00,400
Speaker 8: they have to be closed down. A judge ruled, and

796
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:03,359
Speaker 8: she said, friends of mine came up to me and

797
00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:06,080
Speaker 8: they were, Oh, they were so angry. I didn't even

798
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:09,040
Speaker 8: know they were going, you know, she they were it's fertilization.

799
00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 8: I didn't know they were even involved. And nobody talks

800
00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:13,719
Speaker 8: about it, don't talk about it. But now that they

801
00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:16,759
Speaker 8: can't do it, she said, I was attacked in a

802
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:19,880
Speaker 8: certain way. I was attacked and I said, explain IVS

803
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:23,719
Speaker 8: very IVF very quickly, and within about two minutes I

804
00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 8: understood it. I said, no, no, we're totally in favor

805
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 8: of IVF.

806
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 2: Right. So Katie Britt, the attractive senator, called him and

807
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:34,240
Speaker 2: talked about how women came up to her in church

808
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:37,200
Speaker 2: and told them about how they were using IVF, and

809
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:39,960
Speaker 2: they based on that is the only reason they decided

810
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:42,759
Speaker 2: to change on this object. I mean, look, I'll take

811
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:45,439
Speaker 2: it right. I think it's a good thing. But it's

812
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 2: one of those where the incoherence of a lot of

813
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:52,040
Speaker 2: the GOP's like ability to handle this issue comes to light,

814
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 2: where you know, they get stumbled into things where you

815
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 2: have this like evangelical based part of the party who look,

816
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:01,759
Speaker 2: I guess to their credit. They really do believe in

817
00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:04,600
Speaker 2: banning IVF and and at least some of them in

818
00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:07,760
Speaker 2: banning IVF or in making sure that abortion is completely

819
00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:10,920
Speaker 2: illegal like in all cases. And then they are stuck

820
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 2: with the political consequences of what has been a disaster

821
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:16,880
Speaker 2: for the GOP electorally. I mean, you know, we're going

822
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 2: to talk in a bit about what the new electorate

823
00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:23,320
Speaker 2: may look like based on some initial projections of early vote,

824
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:25,799
Speaker 2: et cetera. And it's like, I can't even begin to

825
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:31,319
Speaker 2: describe how much abortion dramatically changed the landscape. It's so remarkable.

826
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:33,880
Speaker 2: Never I mean, I knew it was going to be something,

827
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:36,960
Speaker 2: but to think it would realign almost everything and be

828
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:39,759
Speaker 2: the primary reason that a lot of women are going

829
00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:42,120
Speaker 2: to vote, I would never have predicted that, and yet

830
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:44,759
Speaker 2: it has. So this is a good view into they

831
00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:46,880
Speaker 2: really don't know how to handle it. Like it's like

832
00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:49,160
Speaker 2: everybody wanted Row versus Way to be gone. It's like

833
00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:51,520
Speaker 2: not really, and then now it is gone. It's like

834
00:38:51,520 --> 00:38:53,839
Speaker 2: and actually it's a good thing, you know, for this day.

835
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:56,520
Speaker 2: It's just it's just all over the map, Like, yeah,

836
00:38:56,560 --> 00:38:57,880
Speaker 2: it doesn't make a lot of sense.

837
00:38:57,960 --> 00:39:00,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, is the main thing? Well, I would saying with

838
00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:02,320
Speaker 1: Kamlin Harris like in certain questions, there just isn't really

839
00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:04,160
Speaker 1: a good answer for her. And this is a question

840
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:07,600
Speaker 1: for Donald Trump, like there is no good answer because also,

841
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 1: I mean, he has the reality contend with that his

842
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:13,400
Speaker 1: justices that he hand picked and put on the court

843
00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:17,760
Speaker 1: with the you know, direct intention of overturning Roe versus Wade,

844
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:21,880
Speaker 1: like this was the logical consequence consequence of the actions

845
00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:25,239
Speaker 1: that he himself took number one and number two when

846
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:29,319
Speaker 1: Democrats have brought up let's protect IVF bills at the

847
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 1: federal level. You know, last time that this happened, all

848
00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:36,080
Speaker 1: but two Republicans voted against it, and Jade Vance just

849
00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:38,000
Speaker 1: didn't come so he didn't have to take a vote

850
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:41,120
Speaker 1: either way. So you know, he wants to position republicanss

851
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:43,120
Speaker 1: like the Party of IVF and himself is what do

852
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 1: you call himself, like the King of IVF or.

853
00:39:45,160 --> 00:39:49,239
Speaker 2: Something, a father, a fertilization father. Listening, he's got what

854
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:51,959
Speaker 2: he's got children with three different women's So in some ways.

855
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:55,000
Speaker 1: People are just not really going to buy like he's

856
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:58,759
Speaker 1: the one to protect women's rights. And as I said,

857
00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:02,359
Speaker 1: I can't really get him. I can't really coach him

858
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:05,439
Speaker 1: on a better answer, because I don't really think there

859
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:08,840
Speaker 1: is one, given the actions that he's already taken, given

860
00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:11,879
Speaker 1: his coalition, And you know, he's very fortunate that there

861
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 1: aren't more pro life leaders and voters who are as

862
00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:18,640
Speaker 1: critical of him as like Lyla Rose was when she

863
00:40:18,880 --> 00:40:21,760
Speaker 1: talked to us on our show. You know, they've largely

864
00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:23,560
Speaker 1: given him a pass on this too, so that gives

865
00:40:23,600 --> 00:40:25,200
Speaker 1: him the freedom to go out there and be like, oh,

866
00:40:25,239 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 1: IVF is wonderful, and of course I love IVF, and

867
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:29,400
Speaker 1: of course it should all be left to the states

868
00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:32,880
Speaker 1: and all of these things. But yeah, it's just a

869
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:35,759
Speaker 1: losing issue for them, period, you know, bottom line out

870
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:38,279
Speaker 1: of story, because it's not really a political framing issue

871
00:40:38,320 --> 00:40:40,359
Speaker 1: at this point. It's a reality issue, and people are

872
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:43,800
Speaker 1: very set on how upset they are about the changed

873
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 1: landscape of rights that they previously enjoyed.

874
00:40:46,239 --> 00:40:48,280
Speaker 2: Absolutely, all right, let's move on to the polls.

875
00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:53,720
Speaker 1: So some interesting pulling data to get to this morning,

876
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:55,279
Speaker 1: but I also wanted to take a look at that

877
00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:58,680
Speaker 1: analysis from Harry Enton. He did a great job breaking

878
00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:02,200
Speaker 1: down some of Kamala Harris's issues with non white voters,

879
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 1: especially among men. This segment. He looks at the flip

880
00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:08,880
Speaker 1: side of that, which is her historically good performance with

881
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:11,719
Speaker 1: a key demographic group. That would be white women, my people,

882
00:41:11,760 --> 00:41:13,000
Speaker 1: apparently with jigalism.

883
00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:17,280
Speaker 12: Let's take a look here the GOP's margin among white women.

884
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:20,440
Speaker 12: Look Romney one and by nine. All right, Trump in

885
00:41:20,520 --> 00:41:23,040
Speaker 12: twenty sixteen one and by six. You go back four

886
00:41:23,120 --> 00:41:24,720
Speaker 12: years ago, Trump won and by seven.

887
00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:25,280
Speaker 4: Look.

888
00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:29,399
Speaker 12: Now, look how much lower Trump's margin is among white women. Look,

889
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:31,440
Speaker 12: he still leads, but it's well within the margin, or

890
00:41:31,719 --> 00:41:34,719
Speaker 12: it's just a point. He's doing six points worse than

891
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:37,839
Speaker 12: he did four years ago. In fact, he's doing the

892
00:41:37,880 --> 00:41:41,520
Speaker 12: worst if this holds for a GOP candidate this century

893
00:41:41,560 --> 00:41:42,279
Speaker 12: among white women.

894
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:45,240
Speaker 2: John Well, how much do white women matter in the electric.

895
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:47,320
Speaker 12: So this is the whole thing, right, how much do

896
00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:49,640
Speaker 12: they matter? If you were to break it down, white women,

897
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:52,480
Speaker 12: white men, women of color, men of color, white women

898
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:55,960
Speaker 12: make up the plurality of the electorate thirty six percent.

899
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:58,240
Speaker 12: So you know, yesterday we were talking about those massive

900
00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:03,360
Speaker 12: gains that Donald Trump was making among black men, black women,

901
00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:05,520
Speaker 12: But the bottom line is they actually make up a

902
00:42:05,560 --> 00:42:09,279
Speaker 12: considerably smaller portion of the electorate than white women do.

903
00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:13,000
Speaker 12: So when we're talking about five six point shifts, seven

904
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:16,480
Speaker 12: point shifts in Kamala Harris's direction. We're talking about that

905
00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:19,319
Speaker 12: among a major part of the electorate, and that can

906
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 12: actually move the overall electorate more than ginormous shifts among

907
00:42:23,719 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 12: a considerably smaller part of the electric If she wins,

908
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:29,520
Speaker 12: it could ultimately be because she did so well with

909
00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:30,000
Speaker 12: white women.

910
00:42:30,080 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 1: John and what he was showing there at the end

911
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:36,879
Speaker 1: is the difference the gender gap between who is prioritizing

912
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:39,560
Speaker 1: abortion and saying that's their top issue for women. Twenty

913
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:41,760
Speaker 1: seven percent of women are saying that is my number

914
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:45,520
Speaker 1: one issue. So this is effectively I mean, if you

915
00:42:45,520 --> 00:42:47,800
Speaker 1: want to understand, I don't agree with all of the

916
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:50,400
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris campaign strategy. I think they should be focusing

917
00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:53,240
Speaker 1: a lot more and foregrounding a lot more economic plans,

918
00:42:53,239 --> 00:42:54,879
Speaker 1: bread and butter plans. I think they should be hitting

919
00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:56,960
Speaker 1: Trump on the economy. I think they would be doing

920
00:42:57,200 --> 00:42:59,960
Speaker 1: much better in the polls right now than the absolute

921
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:02,480
Speaker 1: fifty to fifty toss up at best that it is

922
00:43:02,520 --> 00:43:06,400
Speaker 1: at this point. But this is effectively their strategy. Soccers

923
00:43:06,400 --> 00:43:09,879
Speaker 1: they see those like Nicky Haley voters and they they're

924
00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:12,719
Speaker 1: looking at these numbers and say, hey, that's the largest

925
00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:16,480
Speaker 1: demographic group that we could improve them. So if we

926
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:20,080
Speaker 1: up that by you know, a few points, then hey,

927
00:43:20,239 --> 00:43:22,920
Speaker 1: we're we're in good position. And that's what all of

928
00:43:22,960 --> 00:43:25,600
Speaker 1: the that's what a lot of their campaign strategy has

929
00:43:25,640 --> 00:43:28,080
Speaker 1: been geared towards. And of course a lot of their

930
00:43:28,200 --> 00:43:30,040
Speaker 1: you know, AD dollars have been spent, a lot of

931
00:43:30,080 --> 00:43:33,799
Speaker 1: their vocal energy and campaign rallies and debate stage time,

932
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:36,040
Speaker 1: and all of that is also spent on the issue

933
00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 1: of abortion because it's the most uniting issue among this

934
00:43:39,719 --> 00:43:40,680
Speaker 1: particular coalition.

935
00:43:40,840 --> 00:43:44,319
Speaker 2: Absolutely, And you know, this is a point often made

936
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:48,160
Speaker 2: by others about the GEOP. You know, Trump is obsessed

937
00:43:48,239 --> 00:43:51,160
Speaker 2: with the idea of winning more Latino and black men.

938
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:53,440
Speaker 2: And look, that's great, you know, I think it's objectively

939
00:43:53,480 --> 00:43:55,919
Speaker 2: like a good thing for the country and certainly should

940
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:57,880
Speaker 2: always be trying to win everybody. But you know, seventy

941
00:43:57,880 --> 00:43:59,400
Speaker 2: five percent of the people in the country vote are

942
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 2: white five percent, So when you have a nine percent

943
00:44:02,239 --> 00:44:05,719
Speaker 2: margin problem from Romney to today or eight percent, that's

944
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:09,640
Speaker 2: actually bad because even though it's a smaller margin, then

945
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:12,359
Speaker 2: let's say other groups like Latino man, there's a ton

946
00:44:12,520 --> 00:44:16,000
Speaker 2: more white women who are out there. Well, some more

947
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:18,680
Speaker 2: white people who are out there who actually vote, So

948
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:22,160
Speaker 2: by the numbers, that actually matters a lot. It matters

949
00:44:22,200 --> 00:44:25,200
Speaker 2: the most in the actual states that are the most

950
00:44:25,239 --> 00:44:29,120
Speaker 2: critical in this election, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which are

951
00:44:29,320 --> 00:44:31,760
Speaker 2: way more white than the Sun Belt. And in fact,

952
00:44:32,040 --> 00:44:35,120
Speaker 2: if we consider a scenario where what what is Trump

953
00:44:35,200 --> 00:44:37,919
Speaker 2: upbeyed in the New York Times in Arizona like four

954
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:38,399
Speaker 2: maybe six?

955
00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:39,239
Speaker 1: I think six.

956
00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:42,160
Speaker 2: That's a ton, right, What does that explain? So Hispanics,

957
00:44:42,160 --> 00:44:44,239
Speaker 2: it's a very diverse state. There's way less white people

958
00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:47,839
Speaker 2: who live in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, wisconsinly ever been there,

959
00:44:47,880 --> 00:44:50,640
Speaker 2: Like it's they're pretty white places, and you know, the

960
00:44:50,680 --> 00:44:54,319
Speaker 2: minorities that they have is like usually black people who

961
00:44:54,360 --> 00:44:57,800
Speaker 2: are in like urban areas and especially in the rural counties,

962
00:44:58,040 --> 00:45:00,799
Speaker 2: places that Trump used to dominate. If he is going

963
00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:03,120
Speaker 2: to only win white women there by some fifty to

964
00:45:03,120 --> 00:45:07,160
Speaker 2: fifty margin, massive problem for him, especially when you consider

965
00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:10,640
Speaker 2: what all of those people proportionally coming for the Democrats

966
00:45:10,800 --> 00:45:13,759
Speaker 2: could mean. Even with higher voter registration and even with

967
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:16,719
Speaker 2: higher turnout amongst men, it wouldn't even matter numbers wise, I've.

968
00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:19,400
Speaker 1: Seen a number of Trump supporting Republicans who are like,

969
00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:22,640
Speaker 1: he really needs to do some female focused podcasts, you know.

970
00:45:22,719 --> 00:45:25,319
Speaker 2: And you can see like Riley Gain say that that's why,

971
00:45:26,000 --> 00:45:28,279
Speaker 2: that's why I saw. Yeah, they're not wrong. I think

972
00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:28,719
Speaker 2: they're right.

973
00:45:28,880 --> 00:45:31,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, And you see, you know, Tommy Laren has also

974
00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:34,560
Speaker 1: been critical at times of his strategy of or lack thereof,

975
00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:38,200
Speaker 1: to outreach to women, because this is such an important

976
00:45:38,200 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 1: demographic group like all the rest, and you do see

977
00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:44,279
Speaker 1: on the hair side, they realize we got a little

978
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:46,040
Speaker 1: bit of a problem the manisphere. I'm going to go

979
00:45:46,080 --> 00:45:47,880
Speaker 1: I'm going to try to go on Joe Rogan, I'm

980
00:45:47,880 --> 00:45:49,680
Speaker 1: going to go on with Charlemagne, like I'm going to

981
00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:52,640
Speaker 1: go on these various places to try to shore up

982
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:55,480
Speaker 1: our support. There you can see they recognize that there's

983
00:45:55,480 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 1: a bit of an issue and they're trying to shore

984
00:45:57,080 --> 00:46:00,600
Speaker 1: things up. You know, Trump to do this like news

985
00:46:00,840 --> 00:46:04,319
Speaker 1: town Hall with pre selected audience members. But in terms

986
00:46:04,360 --> 00:46:06,879
Speaker 1: of the similar podcast strategy that he's used to reach

987
00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:10,320
Speaker 1: young men, there doesn't seem to be a similar level

988
00:46:10,360 --> 00:46:14,359
Speaker 1: of effort to try to improve his margins with women,

989
00:46:14,400 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 1: as you see on the Hair side, and again you know,

990
00:46:17,680 --> 00:46:20,520
Speaker 1: part of this cake is like already baked. I think

991
00:46:20,600 --> 00:46:22,960
Speaker 1: it is difficult. At this point, there's probably only a

992
00:46:23,000 --> 00:46:25,839
Speaker 1: few percentage points of undecided voters who could truly go

993
00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:28,600
Speaker 1: either way. So you know, your best bet probably is

994
00:46:28,640 --> 00:46:32,359
Speaker 1: these non traditional platforms. These were cultural figures to call

995
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:35,080
Speaker 1: her daddies of the world, et cetera. And it's hard

996
00:46:35,080 --> 00:46:37,160
Speaker 1: to it's hard to imagine Trump in those spaces, but

997
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:38,600
Speaker 1: it would also be very interesting to.

998
00:46:38,560 --> 00:46:40,880
Speaker 2: See Trump and keeps saying it would be crange. I

999
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:44,400
Speaker 2: totally disagree. Trump is funny. He's a pop culture person.

1000
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:46,560
Speaker 2: Howard Stern. You think he doesn't know how to handle

1001
00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:48,719
Speaker 2: like somebody like call her daddy, Like come on.

1002
00:46:49,000 --> 00:46:52,440
Speaker 1: The problem is he gets especially I haven't seen him do.

1003
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:54,880
Speaker 1: Maybe maybe it can remind me of if I'm not

1004
00:46:54,920 --> 00:46:57,640
Speaker 1: remembering one. I've not seen him do a contentious interview

1005
00:46:57,680 --> 00:47:00,680
Speaker 1: this cycle where he hasn't just gotten angry. You know,

1006
00:47:00,760 --> 00:47:03,880
Speaker 1: I'm thinking of the last contentious interview that comes to

1007
00:47:03,920 --> 00:47:06,960
Speaker 1: my mind as the National Associations last journalist, where he

1008
00:47:07,400 --> 00:47:10,280
Speaker 1: just completely lost it and started, you know, ranting about

1009
00:47:10,280 --> 00:47:12,360
Speaker 1: how Kamala hair is not really black and attacking the

1010
00:47:12,400 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 1: moderators or whatever. And I don't think if you're trying

1011
00:47:15,040 --> 00:47:16,920
Speaker 1: to appeal to women voters, like if you go in

1012
00:47:16,920 --> 00:47:19,640
Speaker 1: a majority female space and that's the way you treat

1013
00:47:19,680 --> 00:47:21,800
Speaker 1: the host, I don't think that's going to go well.

1014
00:47:22,120 --> 00:47:25,080
Speaker 1: So we'd have to bring more of the like it's

1015
00:47:25,120 --> 00:47:27,920
Speaker 1: going to be a more adversarial questioning. And can he

1016
00:47:28,000 --> 00:47:30,360
Speaker 1: handle that without just like blowing his top as he

1017
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:33,160
Speaker 1: has in previous boundings this cycle, I do I don't know.

1018
00:47:33,200 --> 00:47:34,759
Speaker 2: I mean, I know he has it in him for sure.

1019
00:47:34,800 --> 00:47:36,200
Speaker 2: You know, I've seen him do it many times in

1020
00:47:36,239 --> 00:47:39,239
Speaker 2: the past. He's like you frequent Oprah guest, right, Like,

1021
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:41,600
Speaker 2: it's not somebody who doesn't have this in their repertoire.

1022
00:47:41,719 --> 00:47:43,920
Speaker 1: So I think it's been a minute.

1023
00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:45,600
Speaker 2: I think he should do it. I think you're right,

1024
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:49,520
Speaker 2: and there's no reason especially not to do Like honestly,

1025
00:47:49,520 --> 00:47:50,880
Speaker 2: I think if I were him, I would do Oprah

1026
00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:52,240
Speaker 2: or I would do uh.

1027
00:47:52,200 --> 00:47:55,640
Speaker 1: Otra has actively Kamala Harris and spoke of the DNC, so.

1028
00:47:55,640 --> 00:47:58,680
Speaker 2: I'm strong, be strong. Yeah, so his call her daddy.

1029
00:47:58,719 --> 00:48:01,640
Speaker 2: She's basically come out as like pro Kamala. Who else

1030
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:05,279
Speaker 2: I'm trying to think of, like vaguely women Podcast.

1031
00:48:05,080 --> 00:48:07,799
Speaker 1: Women's maybe there's like somebody big in the true crime

1032
00:48:07,840 --> 00:48:10,080
Speaker 1: space is not all that political that he did, that

1033
00:48:10,080 --> 00:48:10,719
Speaker 1: he can vibe with it.

1034
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:12,880
Speaker 2: That's actually a good idea. I'm not really sure. I

1035
00:48:12,880 --> 00:48:14,520
Speaker 2: don't listen to a lot of these true crime things, right,

1036
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:16,759
Speaker 2: I mean, they're some of the top biggest female shows

1037
00:48:16,760 --> 00:48:19,040
Speaker 2: in the entire country. Yeah, so that wouldn't be you know,

1038
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:20,359
Speaker 2: that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

1039
00:48:20,440 --> 00:48:20,800
Speaker 13: Yeah.

1040
00:48:20,840 --> 00:48:23,880
Speaker 1: Anyway, so that's Trump with the ladies. Let's take a

1041
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:28,919
Speaker 1: look at YouGov has just launched their MRP projections. Let's

1042
00:48:28,920 --> 00:48:31,200
Speaker 1: put this up on the screen. So this is a

1043
00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:34,520
Speaker 1: little different than a poll and soccer. Maybe you can

1044
00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:37,839
Speaker 1: explain this better than I can. But effectively, they're doing

1045
00:48:37,880 --> 00:48:41,840
Speaker 1: interviews with something like one hundred thousand voters across the country,

1046
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:45,400
Speaker 1: and they are continually reaching out to these voters to

1047
00:48:45,480 --> 00:48:48,080
Speaker 1: see how they're shifting, and they're asking him a range

1048
00:48:48,120 --> 00:48:51,279
Speaker 1: of questions not just about who they're supporting, but critically

1049
00:48:51,560 --> 00:48:54,400
Speaker 1: because this is the hardest thing to determine how likely

1050
00:48:54,440 --> 00:48:56,600
Speaker 1: they are to actually show.

1051
00:48:56,400 --> 00:48:57,320
Speaker 2: Up and vote.

1052
00:48:57,560 --> 00:49:01,560
Speaker 1: So this is the launch of their of this MRP model.

1053
00:49:02,120 --> 00:49:04,920
Speaker 1: Based on this technique that they're using. You can see

1054
00:49:05,080 --> 00:49:07,520
Speaker 1: that Kamala Harris has a little bit of an edge

1055
00:49:07,640 --> 00:49:11,320
Speaker 1: fifty to forty seven in terms of the national popular vote.

1056
00:49:11,360 --> 00:49:13,840
Speaker 1: That would probably be enough, although it would be quite

1057
00:49:13,960 --> 00:49:17,319
Speaker 1: razor fin for her to be able to secure a

1058
00:49:17,360 --> 00:49:20,799
Speaker 1: win using those industrial Midwestern like the blue Wall state path.

1059
00:49:21,160 --> 00:49:23,720
Speaker 1: You can see in this model they have her winning

1060
00:49:24,040 --> 00:49:27,480
Speaker 1: Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania basically a toss up. If

1061
00:49:27,480 --> 00:49:29,840
Speaker 1: you do click over Pennsylvania, they do have her with

1062
00:49:29,880 --> 00:49:33,080
Speaker 1: a slight edge there as well, but you know, too

1063
00:49:33,120 --> 00:49:35,400
Speaker 1: close for them to actually put it in her column.

1064
00:49:35,520 --> 00:49:38,440
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead to the next piece. You can see

1065
00:49:39,160 --> 00:49:45,080
Speaker 1: three the more details about the MRP projections, and what

1066
00:49:45,200 --> 00:49:48,879
Speaker 1: this person notes that's really fascinating is the fact that

1067
00:49:49,120 --> 00:49:53,560
Speaker 1: if they're right, then it looks a lot. It's very

1068
00:49:53,640 --> 00:49:56,960
Speaker 1: validating of the New York Times theory that twenty twenty

1069
00:49:56,960 --> 00:50:00,000
Speaker 1: four looks more like twenty twenty two than it does

1070
00:50:00,719 --> 00:50:06,000
Speaker 1: twenty twenty. These results imply this person rights that on average,

1071
00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:09,280
Speaker 1: the swing states will do almost a half a point

1072
00:50:09,400 --> 00:50:13,400
Speaker 1: better than the twenty twenty margin in those core seven battlegrounds,

1073
00:50:13,680 --> 00:50:16,960
Speaker 1: but they'll do worse basically everywhere else, and so the

1074
00:50:17,080 --> 00:50:21,279
Speaker 1: national popular vote they'll do more poorly in even as

1075
00:50:21,320 --> 00:50:23,919
Speaker 1: they're holding up and even doing better than twenty twenty

1076
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:26,000
Speaker 1: in those swing states. And like I said, that's somewhat

1077
00:50:26,040 --> 00:50:29,439
Speaker 1: consistent with how things turned down in the mid term

1078
00:50:29,600 --> 00:50:35,319
Speaker 1: elections and would again indicate that there's a shrinking of

1079
00:50:35,360 --> 00:50:38,520
Speaker 1: the gap between the electoral college advantage that Republicans have

1080
00:50:38,640 --> 00:50:42,000
Speaker 1: and the national popular vote. So who knows, right, it's

1081
00:50:42,120 --> 00:50:44,600
Speaker 1: just more pieces of data to throw into the mix.

1082
00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:47,920
Speaker 1: But I do sort of think there's a logic to

1083
00:50:48,000 --> 00:50:52,239
Speaker 1: that New York Times theory that based on the reshaping

1084
00:50:52,239 --> 00:50:55,640
Speaker 1: of the electorate post COVID, post row versus way, that

1085
00:50:55,680 --> 00:50:57,600
Speaker 1: it makes some sense that it would look more like

1086
00:50:57,640 --> 00:50:59,760
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, where you have some places that continue

1087
00:50:59,760 --> 00:51:02,080
Speaker 1: to move to the right, but in the key states,

1088
00:51:02,360 --> 00:51:04,480
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris is holding up pretty well here. So what

1089
00:51:04,520 --> 00:51:05,520
Speaker 1: did you make of this saga?

1090
00:51:05,680 --> 00:51:07,720
Speaker 2: Same as you. I mean, it's a key piece of data.

1091
00:51:07,760 --> 00:51:10,239
Speaker 2: The UGUV model is not bad. Apparently I checked some

1092
00:51:10,280 --> 00:51:12,920
Speaker 2: of his track record back in the day. It's pioneered.

1093
00:51:12,960 --> 00:51:15,279
Speaker 2: Actually in the UK they call it the what is

1094
00:51:15,320 --> 00:51:18,719
Speaker 2: it the MRP model, the technique to project it. The

1095
00:51:18,719 --> 00:51:21,600
Speaker 2: point is is that this the heuristic that everybody needs

1096
00:51:21,960 --> 00:51:24,480
Speaker 2: is are we in a twenty twenty scenario or are

1097
00:51:24,520 --> 00:51:27,960
Speaker 2: we in a twenty twenty two scenario. So right now,

1098
00:51:28,120 --> 00:51:30,760
Speaker 2: a lot of poles are assuming a twenty twenty scenario

1099
00:51:30,800 --> 00:51:33,360
Speaker 2: the exact same makeup of the electorate. Because we consider

1100
00:51:33,480 --> 00:51:37,040
Speaker 2: what I said previously about abortion. Abortion fundamentally changed the

1101
00:51:37,040 --> 00:51:40,480
Speaker 2: way that Americans interact with the political system, millions and

1102
00:51:40,600 --> 00:51:43,759
Speaker 2: millions of people changing the way that they do on

1103
00:51:43,880 --> 00:51:48,320
Speaker 2: top of major demographic and dynamic changes which we actually

1104
00:51:48,400 --> 00:51:50,799
Speaker 2: can see, like if we want to move into some

1105
00:51:50,840 --> 00:51:53,680
Speaker 2: of the polls, like let's go to be four, please

1106
00:51:53,760 --> 00:51:56,480
Speaker 2: and put that up on the screen. So if you

1107
00:51:56,520 --> 00:52:00,080
Speaker 2: look at these poles, and you look specifically at the

1108
00:52:00,239 --> 00:52:03,359
Speaker 2: Harris and Yugov and economists, they have a forty nine

1109
00:52:03,480 --> 00:52:05,840
Speaker 2: forty five for Harris, that's within four points. For the

1110
00:52:05,880 --> 00:52:08,680
Speaker 2: Tip people, they have a fifty forty six for Harris,

1111
00:52:08,719 --> 00:52:11,520
Speaker 2: and Harris at fifty to forty seven, and the overall

1112
00:52:11,560 --> 00:52:15,680
Speaker 2: average she's roughly around three percent in the national popular vote.

1113
00:52:15,719 --> 00:52:17,920
Speaker 2: But the thing is is that the national popular vote

1114
00:52:17,960 --> 00:52:20,000
Speaker 2: that's a little bit less than where things had looked

1115
00:52:20,040 --> 00:52:23,600
Speaker 2: previously for a lot of Democrats. So with the less

1116
00:52:24,040 --> 00:52:26,520
Speaker 2: popular vote, you still have to then look at those

1117
00:52:26,600 --> 00:52:30,759
Speaker 2: micro demographics, and if you see where you had in

1118
00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:33,680
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, you had an electorate which was Republican

1119
00:52:33,840 --> 00:52:37,640
Speaker 2: plus two in its preference, but you had so many

1120
00:52:38,040 --> 00:52:41,480
Speaker 2: independents that came over and voted in the swing states

1121
00:52:41,480 --> 00:52:44,960
Speaker 2: in particular, that it still looked like a major blowout.

1122
00:52:45,239 --> 00:52:47,759
Speaker 2: And this is like with the major areas of the

1123
00:52:47,760 --> 00:52:50,719
Speaker 2: country are changing very differently. New York and the outer

1124
00:52:50,800 --> 00:52:53,680
Speaker 2: boroughs are becoming a lot more red. Obviously Florida has

1125
00:52:53,719 --> 00:52:55,960
Speaker 2: become a lot more red. That's kind of interesting. But

1126
00:52:56,200 --> 00:53:00,399
Speaker 2: you also have North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona really fundamentally changing.

1127
00:53:00,440 --> 00:53:03,000
Speaker 2: I mean, North Carolina may be the one which has

1128
00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:06,160
Speaker 2: changed the most. You've got a way more wealthy and white,

1129
00:53:06,239 --> 00:53:11,160
Speaker 2: affluent number of net migrants coming into the state from

1130
00:53:11,200 --> 00:53:13,200
Speaker 2: the last four years. You've got all this stuff right

1131
00:53:13,200 --> 00:53:16,360
Speaker 2: now with the hurricane damage, and particularly western North Carolina

1132
00:53:16,400 --> 00:53:19,120
Speaker 2: where it's already a Republican stronghold. So I could see

1133
00:53:19,120 --> 00:53:20,839
Speaker 2: an upset there probably more than anywhere else.

1134
00:53:20,880 --> 00:53:23,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's very possible, really interesting if she

1135
00:53:23,640 --> 00:53:26,239
Speaker 1: won North Carolina lost Georgia. I mean, it's just you know,

1136
00:53:26,560 --> 00:53:28,960
Speaker 1: there's there's a lot of potential dynamics that could play

1137
00:53:28,960 --> 00:53:32,240
Speaker 1: out to your point about like, you know, the polls

1138
00:53:32,280 --> 00:53:33,759
Speaker 1: and how we think about these things. You know, we

1139
00:53:33,840 --> 00:53:36,960
Speaker 1: covered that poll and that data that showed that Republican

1140
00:53:37,000 --> 00:53:41,719
Speaker 1: self identification had edged out above Democratic health identification, and

1141
00:53:41,760 --> 00:53:43,600
Speaker 1: then that same polster released a poll like the next

1142
00:53:43,640 --> 00:53:45,480
Speaker 1: week that had it flipped back the other ways. I

1143
00:53:45,520 --> 00:53:47,600
Speaker 1: was like, all right, well, who the hell knows what

1144
00:53:47,640 --> 00:53:50,719
Speaker 1: do we know about any of this? But one thing

1145
00:53:50,719 --> 00:53:53,839
Speaker 1: I wanted to flag is in that last tweet they

1146
00:53:53,880 --> 00:53:56,040
Speaker 1: had the tipp I don't know if people just say

1147
00:53:56,080 --> 00:53:58,919
Speaker 1: tip or they say tippe, but whatever. Anyway, they had

1148
00:53:59,440 --> 00:54:03,439
Speaker 1: that now Daily Tracker, and that poll ended up last

1149
00:54:03,440 --> 00:54:06,600
Speaker 1: time around being the most accurate polster. So people are

1150
00:54:06,600 --> 00:54:09,120
Speaker 1: paying a little bit special attention to this. But to

1151
00:54:09,160 --> 00:54:11,120
Speaker 1: break down why any of this matters, because it seems

1152
00:54:11,120 --> 00:54:13,799
Speaker 1: like we're really parsing here. When you're looking at the

1153
00:54:13,960 --> 00:54:17,799
Speaker 1: national polls, if you see a lot of people are

1154
00:54:17,800 --> 00:54:20,040
Speaker 1: see Kamala Harris with like a two or three point lead,

1155
00:54:20,120 --> 00:54:22,200
Speaker 1: and they're like, well, with the electoral college advantage that

1156
00:54:22,239 --> 00:54:24,520
Speaker 1: Republicans had in twenty twenty and twenty sixteen, that may

1157
00:54:24,560 --> 00:54:28,399
Speaker 1: not be enough. That's really the key question here, because

1158
00:54:28,440 --> 00:54:30,839
Speaker 1: if it's more of a twenty twenty two electorate, then

1159
00:54:30,960 --> 00:54:34,279
Speaker 1: a three or even potentially a two point maybe one

1160
00:54:34,320 --> 00:54:37,440
Speaker 1: point lead for her in the popular vote could be

1161
00:54:37,520 --> 00:54:40,640
Speaker 1: sufficient depending on what happens in these battlegrounds. So that's

1162
00:54:40,680 --> 00:54:42,680
Speaker 1: kind of the key point is you're trying to analyze

1163
00:54:42,719 --> 00:54:45,000
Speaker 1: all of these things. We wanted to update you on

1164
00:54:45,040 --> 00:54:48,719
Speaker 1: some good news with regard to election night. Let's go

1165
00:54:48,760 --> 00:54:51,560
Speaker 1: and put this up on the screen. So Georgia had

1166
00:54:51,600 --> 00:54:55,680
Speaker 1: issued their election board, which is very you know, pro

1167
00:54:55,800 --> 00:54:58,960
Speaker 1: Trump sort of mega election board, different than Brian Kemp,

1168
00:54:59,000 --> 00:55:02,400
Speaker 1: who obviously as governor in the state. They had ruled

1169
00:55:02,719 --> 00:55:05,200
Speaker 1: that every ballot in the state was going to have

1170
00:55:05,280 --> 00:55:10,200
Speaker 1: to be hand counted. Now you can understand how long

1171
00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:13,160
Speaker 1: that would take, especially given how close they are to

1172
00:55:13,200 --> 00:55:15,839
Speaker 1: election day, how little time they'd have to adjust to

1173
00:55:16,200 --> 00:55:19,720
Speaker 1: this new rule. And as of now, a county judge

1174
00:55:19,800 --> 00:55:23,840
Speaker 1: in Georgia blocked that new rule mandating a handcount of

1175
00:55:23,880 --> 00:55:27,360
Speaker 1: election ballots across the state. He said that enacting that

1176
00:55:27,400 --> 00:55:30,480
Speaker 1: sweeping change right now, so close to the Novumber election

1177
00:55:30,560 --> 00:55:33,359
Speaker 1: would be quote too much, too late. He didn't knock

1178
00:55:33,400 --> 00:55:36,200
Speaker 1: it down outright leaving the door open the potentially in

1179
00:55:36,239 --> 00:55:38,719
Speaker 1: the future they could implement this rule change, but just

1180
00:55:38,719 --> 00:55:41,719
Speaker 1: saying listen, it's too close to election day, and this

1181
00:55:41,760 --> 00:55:45,560
Speaker 1: would potentially create a lot of chaos. And you know,

1182
00:55:45,640 --> 00:55:47,520
Speaker 1: I'm relieved, because number one, I want to be able

1183
00:55:47,560 --> 00:55:49,800
Speaker 1: to get the election results and actually know who wins

1184
00:55:49,880 --> 00:55:52,239
Speaker 1: at some point in time, and this was definitely going

1185
00:55:52,280 --> 00:55:55,600
Speaker 1: to delay that being able to occur, and it was

1186
00:55:55,640 --> 00:56:00,400
Speaker 1: going to create more of that red mirage of fact

1187
00:56:00,719 --> 00:56:05,040
Speaker 1: where because the largest cities and largest suburban areas tend

1188
00:56:05,080 --> 00:56:07,520
Speaker 1: to be more democratic, those are also the places with

1189
00:56:07,560 --> 00:56:09,440
Speaker 1: a lot of votes, and if you're trying to hand count,

1190
00:56:09,480 --> 00:56:11,799
Speaker 1: those will be the places that came in last. So

1191
00:56:11,840 --> 00:56:14,680
Speaker 1: it creates that opening that Trump used last time around

1192
00:56:14,719 --> 00:56:16,800
Speaker 1: to say, look, the results were all coming in Republican

1193
00:56:16,800 --> 00:56:18,200
Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden, in the middle of

1194
00:56:18,280 --> 00:56:20,840
Speaker 1: the night, you know, they get in these secret ballots

1195
00:56:20,840 --> 00:56:24,520
Speaker 1: and suddenly the Democrats take the lead. So this helps

1196
00:56:24,560 --> 00:56:27,560
Speaker 1: to mitigate some of that dynamic and leave less of

1197
00:56:27,600 --> 00:56:30,400
Speaker 1: an opening for his shenanigans. In this particular stace, we.

1198
00:56:30,400 --> 00:56:31,920
Speaker 2: Also just take I mean, the main point is just

1199
00:56:31,960 --> 00:56:34,920
Speaker 2: takes freaking forever, and it's one of those where everyone

1200
00:56:34,960 --> 00:56:37,000
Speaker 2: always like, oh, we need better elections and all this

1201
00:56:37,120 --> 00:56:39,560
Speaker 2: is like, how is hand counting not way worse? It's

1202
00:56:39,560 --> 00:56:41,640
Speaker 2: one of those where you know, you put your trust

1203
00:56:41,680 --> 00:56:43,879
Speaker 2: in Look, no offense to the poll workers out there,

1204
00:56:43,920 --> 00:56:45,360
Speaker 2: but it's like, you know, have you ever met some

1205
00:56:45,400 --> 00:56:47,719
Speaker 2: of these folks about who they are? And then don't

1206
00:56:47,719 --> 00:56:52,040
Speaker 2: even forget about the whole hanging Chad nightmare from Florida

1207
00:56:52,160 --> 00:56:54,359
Speaker 2: in the year two thousand where you had those two

1208
00:56:54,480 --> 00:56:59,280
Speaker 2: individual people they're examining the ballots as another person people. Really,

1209
00:56:59,360 --> 00:57:02,359
Speaker 2: you know, I wasn't truly cognizant like at that time,

1210
00:57:02,400 --> 00:57:04,399
Speaker 2: but the more I read about it, I'm like, what

1211
00:57:04,480 --> 00:57:06,040
Speaker 2: an insane It was wild?

1212
00:57:06,239 --> 00:57:09,120
Speaker 1: It was really wild. I was barely politically cognizant, to

1213
00:57:09,160 --> 00:57:11,000
Speaker 1: be honest with you, because I just wasn't that political

1214
00:57:11,040 --> 00:57:13,120
Speaker 1: at that ase. But yeah, I remember being like, what

1215
00:57:13,160 --> 00:57:15,880
Speaker 1: the hell is going on? Listen? Maybe it's controversial. I

1216
00:57:15,920 --> 00:57:18,640
Speaker 1: personally think, yes, it's fine for individual states to run

1217
00:57:18,680 --> 00:57:20,640
Speaker 1: their elections. I think that's good, and I think that

1218
00:57:20,680 --> 00:57:22,920
Speaker 1: prevents fraud whatever, because we have all these different systems

1219
00:57:22,960 --> 00:57:25,920
Speaker 1: to penetrate. I think there should be federal standards for elections.

1220
00:57:25,920 --> 00:57:28,439
Speaker 1: I think everybody should have the same in terms of

1221
00:57:29,040 --> 00:57:31,800
Speaker 1: is voter ide required or not? What is the early

1222
00:57:31,920 --> 00:57:35,880
Speaker 1: voting process? Is there mail in voting? What's the early

1223
00:57:35,960 --> 00:57:36,800
Speaker 1: voting period?

1224
00:57:37,120 --> 00:57:37,560
Speaker 6: Is it hand?

1225
00:57:37,960 --> 00:57:38,040
Speaker 3: Like?

1226
00:57:38,040 --> 00:57:40,400
Speaker 2: How do Fellon's vote? That's actually the craziest one if

1227
00:57:40,400 --> 00:57:42,080
Speaker 2: you think about it. Some states are felling to vote

1228
00:57:42,080 --> 00:57:42,400
Speaker 2: some station.

1229
00:57:42,520 --> 00:57:45,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right. So what's the most eligible to vote?

1230
00:57:45,600 --> 00:57:48,080
Speaker 1: In different states? It's different and it is outrageous. So

1231
00:57:48,120 --> 00:57:50,800
Speaker 1: I don't know. I think it should be one federal

1232
00:57:50,840 --> 00:57:53,480
Speaker 1: standard because I think it's crazy that voters in some

1233
00:57:53,520 --> 00:57:56,360
Speaker 1: states have way more acts, is way easier to vote

1234
00:57:56,360 --> 00:57:59,560
Speaker 1: than in other states. But I'll that's neither here nor there.

1235
00:57:59,560 --> 00:58:01,600
Speaker 1: I'm glad that they struck down this handing.

1236
00:58:01,760 --> 00:58:04,400
Speaker 2: Oregon they can only do vote by mail. It's craazy.

1237
00:58:04,240 --> 00:58:07,200
Speaker 2: They don't even do in person voting. You're like, wow, like,

1238
00:58:07,320 --> 00:58:09,160
Speaker 2: but actually they have a pretty high voter participation.

1239
00:58:09,360 --> 00:58:09,960
Speaker 4: Kind of interesting.

1240
00:58:10,440 --> 00:58:12,040
Speaker 2: But then yeah, and then some places, like we live

1241
00:58:12,040 --> 00:58:14,560
Speaker 2: in Virginia, and Virginia, what is it? Vote by mail

1242
00:58:14,640 --> 00:58:16,320
Speaker 2: is a lot harder, but we have a ton of

1243
00:58:16,360 --> 00:58:18,320
Speaker 2: early voting. Early voting is actually very nice.

1244
00:58:18,400 --> 00:58:21,160
Speaker 1: I like to vote early in person as my personal preference.

1245
00:58:21,160 --> 00:58:22,680
Speaker 2: It's the easiest way to do it, so you can

1246
00:58:22,960 --> 00:58:25,240
Speaker 2: you can get it done quickly. But then there are

1247
00:58:25,240 --> 00:58:28,320
Speaker 2: there are like weird questions around the election and like

1248
00:58:28,440 --> 00:58:31,400
Speaker 2: voting all the way up until September. So I don't necessary,

1249
00:58:31,440 --> 00:58:33,280
Speaker 2: I don't really disagree in terms of like what the

1250
00:58:33,280 --> 00:58:35,680
Speaker 2: standards and all of that should look like. There you go,

1251
00:58:35,800 --> 00:58:38,320
Speaker 2: that's that's the picture. That's all we know, and we

1252
00:58:38,360 --> 00:58:41,280
Speaker 2: don't know much. We have little little things that could

1253
00:58:41,280 --> 00:58:44,120
Speaker 2: show us something and be indicators of what's coming in

1254
00:58:44,200 --> 00:58:47,920
Speaker 2: the in the future, and after the outcome, we'll be

1255
00:58:47,960 --> 00:58:50,720
Speaker 2: able to look back and really see what was correct,

1256
00:58:50,760 --> 00:58:52,240
Speaker 2: what wasn't, and what we should have looked at.

1257
00:58:52,320 --> 00:58:56,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, so let's go ahead and move on to

1258
00:58:57,320 --> 00:59:00,680
Speaker 1: the current president Joe Biden. He still exists. That's still

1259
00:59:00,680 --> 00:59:03,960
Speaker 1: a person who exists, was supposedly running our country. He

1260
00:59:04,080 --> 00:59:06,880
Speaker 1: is hitting the campaign trail in some limited fashion on

1261
00:59:06,960 --> 00:59:09,000
Speaker 1: behalf of Kamala Harris. Let's take a listen to a

1262
00:59:09,040 --> 00:59:09,919
Speaker 1: little bit of how that went.

1263
00:59:10,200 --> 00:59:14,360
Speaker 13: Let me tell you something. You can't be pro insurrection

1264
00:59:14,480 --> 00:59:19,000
Speaker 13: and pro American if you can't announce Sanuary sixth, you

1265
00:59:19,040 --> 00:59:25,840
Speaker 13: have no business being present. He look, Trump hasn't changed.

1266
00:59:25,880 --> 00:59:29,000
Speaker 13: I would argue he's gotten worse. Clearly he lost the

1267
00:59:29,000 --> 00:59:32,520
Speaker 13: election of twenty twenty. He snapped, no, I mean it.

1268
00:59:32,920 --> 00:59:39,439
Speaker 13: He become unhinge. Look at his rallies last night. Last night,

1269
00:59:39,520 --> 00:59:43,680
Speaker 13: his rallies stopped taking questions because someone got hurt. And

1270
00:59:43,720 --> 00:59:47,320
Speaker 13: guess what, he stood on the stage for thirty minutes

1271
00:59:47,360 --> 00:59:55,000
Speaker 13: and danced. I'm serious, what's wrong with this guy?

1272
00:59:55,920 --> 00:59:57,840
Speaker 1: So there you go. That's some of his messaging out

1273
00:59:57,880 --> 00:59:59,480
Speaker 1: on the trail, consistent with a lot of what you

1274
00:59:59,560 --> 01:00:03,640
Speaker 1: hear from Will Harris and Tim Walls. At the same time,

1275
01:00:03,840 --> 01:00:09,320
Speaker 1: he and Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. We're all actually

1276
01:00:09,360 --> 01:00:13,919
Speaker 1: at the funeral of Ethel Kennedy and interesting to see

1277
01:00:13,960 --> 01:00:15,800
Speaker 1: them all together. We can take a look at a

1278
01:00:15,840 --> 01:00:17,880
Speaker 1: little bit of this. You know, Sager, what did you

1279
01:00:18,200 --> 01:00:19,720
Speaker 1: what did you make of this movie? You can see

1280
01:00:19,760 --> 01:00:22,120
Speaker 1: them all three that had seated together for They all

1281
01:00:22,120 --> 01:00:22,560
Speaker 1: look old.

1282
01:00:22,680 --> 01:00:24,360
Speaker 2: But this is one where everyone.

1283
01:00:24,160 --> 01:00:26,320
Speaker 1: Was Obama aged focused so much in office.

1284
01:00:26,360 --> 01:00:28,400
Speaker 2: Oh my god, Obama gives a little bit of a

1285
01:00:28,400 --> 01:00:30,760
Speaker 2: side eye, looks a little frustrated. You know, they're not

1286
01:00:30,800 --> 01:00:33,640
Speaker 2: really like making eye contact. Now you can see the

1287
01:00:33,680 --> 01:00:36,840
Speaker 2: power dynamic in play here about who is really the

1288
01:00:36,840 --> 01:00:39,120
Speaker 2: one in charge, although maybe I'm just reading way too

1289
01:00:39,160 --> 01:00:41,880
Speaker 2: much into it, which is most likely. I don't know.

1290
01:00:41,960 --> 01:00:44,000
Speaker 1: Crazy that Bill Clinton is younger than Joe Biden.

1291
01:00:44,120 --> 01:00:44,880
Speaker 2: I know it's great.

1292
01:00:44,920 --> 01:00:46,880
Speaker 1: It is imagine I'm running for office again.

1293
01:00:47,400 --> 01:00:49,240
Speaker 2: I mean we've talked about that before. But if there

1294
01:00:49,320 --> 01:00:52,600
Speaker 2: was no Amendment twenty second Amendment, I think Clinton this

1295
01:00:52,640 --> 01:00:55,040
Speaker 2: would be Clinton's last term in office. He would have

1296
01:00:55,320 --> 01:00:57,760
Speaker 2: obviously would have run for like five straight terms. He

1297
01:00:57,760 --> 01:01:01,200
Speaker 2: would have stayed in office the entire time. Sixty percent

1298
01:01:01,240 --> 01:01:03,919
Speaker 2: approval rating on the day that he left. Though, that's great.

1299
01:01:03,920 --> 01:01:05,560
Speaker 2: I was just looking at the nineteen ninety six.

1300
01:01:05,680 --> 01:01:09,000
Speaker 1: See, that's my I always think about wild I always

1301
01:01:09,040 --> 01:01:11,480
Speaker 1: think about if there were no term limits, I think

1302
01:01:11,480 --> 01:01:14,040
Speaker 1: we still have Obama. But it wouldn't have even gotten there.

1303
01:01:14,040 --> 01:01:17,400
Speaker 2: He would Bill Lees. He'd still be a skinny kid

1304
01:01:17,440 --> 01:01:19,720
Speaker 2: with a funny name who was the elector. He probably

1305
01:01:19,720 --> 01:01:21,880
Speaker 2: would have left the Senate because he was bored. I

1306
01:01:21,920 --> 01:01:22,840
Speaker 2: mean Clinton, I'm.

1307
01:01:22,720 --> 01:01:24,360
Speaker 1: Looking at or something.

1308
01:01:24,440 --> 01:01:33,080
Speaker 2: Electoral map. Clinton won, uh Louisiana, Arkansas, like Missouri, World, Iowa.

1309
01:01:33,800 --> 01:01:36,800
Speaker 2: This crazy stuff. He won three hundred and seventy nine

1310
01:01:36,840 --> 01:01:40,320
Speaker 2: electoral votes. Man Bob Doly won one hundred and fifty nine,

1311
01:01:40,360 --> 01:01:42,760
Speaker 2: the guy was like a king. It's kind of crazy,

1312
01:01:42,800 --> 01:01:45,120
Speaker 2: you know what happened to him in retrospect, And then

1313
01:01:45,320 --> 01:01:48,880
Speaker 2: just four years later in two thousand, Gore only puts

1314
01:01:48,960 --> 01:01:51,640
Speaker 2: up two hundred and sixty six electoral votes, even if

1315
01:01:51,680 --> 01:01:55,200
Speaker 2: you look discount Florida within that. I mean, gosh, consider

1316
01:01:55,320 --> 01:01:57,600
Speaker 2: just how much things had changed just in his last

1317
01:01:57,680 --> 01:01:59,760
Speaker 2: four years. So it's actually pretty interesting just to think

1318
01:01:59,760 --> 01:02:02,880
Speaker 2: about what it all looked like in retrospect. But with Biden,

1319
01:02:03,400 --> 01:02:06,600
Speaker 2: and what we definitely wanted to focus on here was

1320
01:02:07,040 --> 01:02:11,400
Speaker 2: Nancy Pelosi and Biden apparently have not spoken since they

1321
01:02:11,480 --> 01:02:13,840
Speaker 2: dropped out, and there's still quite a lot of salt

1322
01:02:14,280 --> 01:02:16,200
Speaker 2: behind the scenes between the two.

1323
01:02:16,400 --> 01:02:19,680
Speaker 14: Let's take a lesson with Joe Biden since that happened.

1324
01:02:20,360 --> 01:02:22,320
Speaker 14: That's a couple of months have passed since. Have you

1325
01:02:22,400 --> 01:02:23,440
Speaker 14: had a conversation too.

1326
01:02:23,480 --> 01:02:30,720
Speaker 15: Nuts since THENO so, But I'm prayerful about it. I

1327
01:02:31,600 --> 01:02:34,880
Speaker 15: have the greatest respect for him. I think he's one

1328
01:02:34,880 --> 01:02:38,320
Speaker 15: of the great consequential presidents of our country. I think

1329
01:02:38,360 --> 01:02:41,520
Speaker 15: his legacy had to be protected. I didn't see that

1330
01:02:41,680 --> 01:02:44,400
Speaker 15: happening in the course that it was on the election,

1331
01:02:44,680 --> 01:02:47,800
Speaker 15: was on my call was just to let's get on

1332
01:02:47,840 --> 01:02:51,080
Speaker 15: a better course. He will make the decision as to

1333
01:02:51,120 --> 01:02:55,520
Speaker 15: what that is, and he made that decision. But I

1334
01:02:55,520 --> 01:02:59,600
Speaker 15: think he has some unease with because we've been friends

1335
01:02:59,600 --> 01:03:03,920
Speaker 15: for decks. Look, let me just say this. Elections are

1336
01:03:03,960 --> 01:03:09,600
Speaker 15: decisions you decide to win. I decided a while ago

1337
01:03:10,240 --> 01:03:13,280
Speaker 15: that Donald Trump will never set foot in the White

1338
01:03:13,320 --> 01:03:18,200
Speaker 15: House again as President of the United States or in

1339
01:03:18,200 --> 01:03:22,000
Speaker 15: any other capacity, but as I can't keep them there

1340
01:03:22,000 --> 01:03:24,960
Speaker 15: for going for tea, but as president of the United States.

1341
01:03:25,560 --> 01:03:28,720
Speaker 15: So when you make a decision, you have to make

1342
01:03:28,760 --> 01:03:31,560
Speaker 15: every decision in favor of winning.

1343
01:03:31,880 --> 01:03:33,360
Speaker 14: And you just felt he couldn't win.

1344
01:03:33,840 --> 01:03:37,000
Speaker 15: No, I thought his campaign that they were on couldn't win.

1345
01:03:37,320 --> 01:03:41,520
Speaker 15: He might win, but they had to change what was happening,

1346
01:03:41,840 --> 01:03:45,800
Speaker 15: and he decided that change would be his stepping aside.

1347
01:03:45,440 --> 01:03:47,800
Speaker 14: As you said you had been close for so long

1348
01:03:47,920 --> 01:03:50,560
Speaker 14: and on Capitol College for decades.

1349
01:03:50,320 --> 01:03:51,680
Speaker 15: Before I was even in Congress.

1350
01:03:51,720 --> 01:03:54,480
Speaker 14: Yeah, and now you've told us that you haven't spoken

1351
01:03:54,480 --> 01:03:57,200
Speaker 14: to him since then. Do you think he's not forgiven

1352
01:03:57,240 --> 01:03:58,040
Speaker 14: you for your role?

1353
01:04:03,680 --> 01:04:06,440
Speaker 15: There may be some people around him who haven't forgiven

1354
01:04:06,480 --> 01:04:07,320
Speaker 15: me for my role.

1355
01:04:07,880 --> 01:04:10,640
Speaker 2: There may be some people around him who haven't forgiven him.

1356
01:04:10,640 --> 01:04:13,760
Speaker 2: So god a spicy she talks.

1357
01:04:13,560 --> 01:04:15,560
Speaker 1: Is so funny to me because she really talks like

1358
01:04:15,800 --> 01:04:19,040
Speaker 1: I'm running the show, you know. She's like, she's like,

1359
01:04:19,440 --> 01:04:22,600
Speaker 1: winning is a decision, and I decided that we were

1360
01:04:22,600 --> 01:04:24,080
Speaker 1: going to win and Donald Trump wasn't going to be

1361
01:04:24,080 --> 01:04:25,920
Speaker 1: in the White House. And she's very delicate, of course

1362
01:04:25,960 --> 01:04:28,680
Speaker 1: about oh, maybe Biden could have won, but that campaign

1363
01:04:28,720 --> 01:04:30,160
Speaker 1: was not going to win. And I think that's an

1364
01:04:30,160 --> 01:04:32,480
Speaker 1: effort like she didn't really care if the campaign staffers

1365
01:04:32,520 --> 01:04:34,560
Speaker 1: no matter or like whatever. She didn't give a shit, right,

1366
01:04:34,640 --> 01:04:36,960
Speaker 1: But she's trying to preserve some sort of you know,

1367
01:04:37,040 --> 01:04:40,800
Speaker 1: possibility of relationship with him and the public niceties, et cetera.

1368
01:04:41,000 --> 01:04:43,720
Speaker 1: But obviously the big reveal there that they have not

1369
01:04:43,920 --> 01:04:47,560
Speaker 1: spoken since he dropped out of the race, and that's

1370
01:04:47,600 --> 01:04:50,760
Speaker 1: pretty wild. I mean, that definitely reveals that he's still

1371
01:04:51,000 --> 01:04:56,000
Speaker 1: salty about her role, probably Obama's role as well. And

1372
01:04:56,720 --> 01:04:59,880
Speaker 1: there's also a lot of reporting about makes sense so

1373
01:05:00,360 --> 01:05:04,800
Speaker 1: interest staff conflict between the Biden camps and the Harris camps.

1374
01:05:05,120 --> 01:05:07,920
Speaker 1: We can put this up on the screen from Axios.

1375
01:05:08,760 --> 01:05:12,680
Speaker 1: Tensions rise between Harris and Biden teams as election nears

1376
01:05:12,760 --> 01:05:15,160
Speaker 1: and you know, on the one hand, you got the

1377
01:05:15,160 --> 01:05:18,480
Speaker 1: Biden people close Harris ally said they're too much in

1378
01:05:18,560 --> 01:05:21,720
Speaker 1: their feelings. They say he wants Harris to win, Yes,

1379
01:05:21,800 --> 01:05:24,280
Speaker 1: but many senior Biden aids are still wounded by the

1380
01:05:24,280 --> 01:05:27,040
Speaker 1: President being pushed out of his reelection like he was

1381
01:05:27,120 --> 01:05:29,960
Speaker 1: gonna lose, and also you were doing him no favors

1382
01:05:30,800 --> 01:05:33,439
Speaker 1: in terms of like this mean, can't serve another four

1383
01:05:33,520 --> 01:05:36,880
Speaker 1: years anyway. They're too much in their feelings, according to

1384
01:05:36,920 --> 01:05:39,120
Speaker 1: one close Harris ally. But there's also some of the

1385
01:05:39,160 --> 01:05:40,920
Speaker 1: Harris teams who are bitter over the fact that a

1386
01:05:40,960 --> 01:05:43,560
Speaker 1: bunch of Biden aids were out there suggesting that she

1387
01:05:43,760 --> 01:05:47,720
Speaker 1: was unelectable. So there continues to be some hurt feelings

1388
01:05:47,840 --> 01:05:53,200
Speaker 1: between the camp. We've also seen some we'll say disconnected

1389
01:05:53,240 --> 01:05:57,000
Speaker 1: messaging coming from the Biden side. He gave a press

1390
01:05:57,000 --> 01:05:59,160
Speaker 1: conference in the White House Briefing Room just as Harris

1391
01:05:59,200 --> 01:06:01,080
Speaker 1: was about to do an event in Michigan, so kind

1392
01:06:01,080 --> 01:06:04,520
Speaker 1: of undercutting her TV coverage. Also, there was that whole

1393
01:06:04,520 --> 01:06:07,200
Speaker 1: flat between Kamala and Ron de Santis were kind of

1394
01:06:07,200 --> 01:06:09,320
Speaker 1: engaged in this like back and forth where he wasn't

1395
01:06:09,320 --> 01:06:11,880
Speaker 1: taking her call whatever, and Biden got asked about it

1396
01:06:12,080 --> 01:06:14,920
Speaker 1: and said that Desanta's had been quote gracious and cooperative,

1397
01:06:14,960 --> 01:06:18,840
Speaker 1: so again kind of undercutting her there. But you know,

1398
01:06:19,280 --> 01:06:24,120
Speaker 1: my guest saga is that if they lose, if Kamala loses,

1399
01:06:24,360 --> 01:06:27,040
Speaker 1: you're gonna hear a lot more of this, and the

1400
01:06:27,080 --> 01:06:30,840
Speaker 1: Biden people will preposterously claim that he would have been

1401
01:06:30,840 --> 01:06:33,840
Speaker 1: a better candidate to win, which is absurd given what

1402
01:06:33,880 --> 01:06:35,360
Speaker 1: we saw in terms of the movement of the polls.

1403
01:06:35,400 --> 01:06:38,480
Speaker 2: And he's been saying it behind the scenes. He's been like,

1404
01:06:38,560 --> 01:06:41,240
Speaker 2: I actually look at her, I could have one. It's

1405
01:06:41,600 --> 01:06:45,640
Speaker 2: crossously crazy, preposteros. Yeah, there will be two, like vibe

1406
01:06:45,720 --> 01:06:49,320
Speaker 2: checks afterwards if Kamala loses. One will be Biden saying

1407
01:06:49,320 --> 01:06:50,960
Speaker 2: he never should have dropped out. That will be the

1408
01:06:51,040 --> 01:06:53,560
Speaker 2: revision's history. And two will be they should have picked

1409
01:06:53,600 --> 01:06:56,640
Speaker 2: John if she loses Pennsylvania. Oh my god, Josh Shapiro

1410
01:06:57,000 --> 01:06:59,000
Speaker 2: propaganda that we're going to hear for the next four

1411
01:06:59,080 --> 01:06:59,840
Speaker 2: years is going to be.

1412
01:07:00,120 --> 01:07:03,400
Speaker 1: Why when the correct take is that they should have

1413
01:07:03,440 --> 01:07:06,920
Speaker 1: had an actual democratic primary so that these candidates might

1414
01:07:06,960 --> 01:07:10,600
Speaker 1: have been stress tested and voters have an actual democratic

1415
01:07:10,680 --> 01:07:13,480
Speaker 1: opportunity to choose the candidate they thought would be best

1416
01:07:13,520 --> 01:07:15,480
Speaker 1: to go up against Donald Trump. That will be the

1417
01:07:15,480 --> 01:07:17,680
Speaker 1: correct take if she loses. But I have a feeling

1418
01:07:17,800 --> 01:07:20,320
Speaker 1: if she does pull off a win, all of this

1419
01:07:20,440 --> 01:07:22,920
Speaker 1: unhappiness it will be fine, swept under the rug. Joe

1420
01:07:22,960 --> 01:07:24,840
Speaker 1: Biden will go back. You know, he's a hero, thinks

1421
01:07:24,960 --> 01:07:27,240
Speaker 1: brown eyes and him off the Wilmington.

1422
01:07:27,320 --> 01:07:28,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, look at you wish that you should do.

1423
01:07:28,640 --> 01:07:31,320
Speaker 1: Right now, But forget about the genocide. Don't worry about that.

1424
01:07:31,400 --> 01:07:33,600
Speaker 1: He is noble and great and wonderful and honorable and

1425
01:07:33,640 --> 01:07:35,439
Speaker 1: all of these things. And he's noble, and his brain

1426
01:07:35,520 --> 01:07:37,600
Speaker 1: is still perfectly fine. Even though his brain was still

1427
01:07:37,640 --> 01:07:38,840
Speaker 1: not fine that we had to push him out of

1428
01:07:38,840 --> 01:07:41,640
Speaker 1: the race. Whatever. If they win, then that will be

1429
01:07:41,720 --> 01:07:45,040
Speaker 1: the all of this will be smoothed over. If they lose.

1430
01:07:45,320 --> 01:07:47,800
Speaker 1: These are the some of the contours of the knives

1431
01:07:47,800 --> 01:07:49,440
Speaker 1: that will come out post loss.

1432
01:07:49,480 --> 01:07:52,600
Speaker 2: I think you are certainly correct, Florida. We've been teasing

1433
01:07:52,600 --> 01:07:53,800
Speaker 2: it for long enough, right.

1434
01:07:53,760 --> 01:07:56,720
Speaker 1: Yes, indeed, so you know this is significant just in

1435
01:07:56,800 --> 01:07:59,120
Speaker 1: terms of the broader sort of conversation about where we

1436
01:07:59,160 --> 01:08:01,840
Speaker 1: are in terms of our economy, in terms of home ownership,

1437
01:08:01,880 --> 01:08:04,760
Speaker 1: in terms of some of the political contours. Even Rhonda

1438
01:08:04,800 --> 01:08:07,880
Speaker 1: Santisen Republicans have been really proud of how many people

1439
01:08:07,960 --> 01:08:11,320
Speaker 1: have moved to the state of Florida and how vibrantthotic

1440
01:08:11,400 --> 01:08:15,200
Speaker 1: economy has been. There are some signs that some of

1441
01:08:15,240 --> 01:08:20,080
Speaker 1: that could be reversing for a range of reasons. Number One,

1442
01:08:20,120 --> 01:08:21,840
Speaker 1: housing prices have just gone up in the state of

1443
01:08:21,840 --> 01:08:24,280
Speaker 1: Florida because a lot of people move there and housing

1444
01:08:24,280 --> 01:08:27,240
Speaker 1: prices are kind of going up everywhere, So that's number one. Obviously,

1445
01:08:27,320 --> 01:08:30,639
Speaker 1: the mortgage interest rate situation, again, that's a national issue.

1446
01:08:31,240 --> 01:08:36,040
Speaker 1: You also have had this problem with home property owners insurance,

1447
01:08:36,080 --> 01:08:38,479
Speaker 1: which is a total disaster, which I'll get into the

1448
01:08:38,479 --> 01:08:41,360
Speaker 1: specifics of a little bit more in a moment. And

1449
01:08:41,400 --> 01:08:44,920
Speaker 1: then you have a situation after remember that condo building

1450
01:08:44,920 --> 01:08:48,240
Speaker 1: that collapsed and killed a bunch of people was horrifying. Well,

1451
01:08:48,600 --> 01:08:53,360
Speaker 1: in response to that, there's they're imposing these levees so

1452
01:08:53,400 --> 01:08:55,920
Speaker 1: that these older condo buildings can be brought up to

1453
01:08:55,920 --> 01:08:58,599
Speaker 1: the codes. You don't see that again, but that's causing

1454
01:08:58,640 --> 01:09:01,599
Speaker 1: issues too with the in the level of those assessments,

1455
01:09:01,600 --> 01:09:03,760
Speaker 1: which sometimes can reach into like hundreds of thousands of

1456
01:09:03,800 --> 01:09:08,439
Speaker 1: dollars for individual condo owners. So that and then most

1457
01:09:08,479 --> 01:09:13,400
Speaker 1: obviously recently you had these two back to back massive

1458
01:09:13,439 --> 01:09:17,160
Speaker 1: storms hit almost the entire state of Florida, which is

1459
01:09:17,200 --> 01:09:20,760
Speaker 1: making a lot of people go like, ugh, I why

1460
01:09:20,880 --> 01:09:22,800
Speaker 1: do I want to move into a place that's just

1461
01:09:22,800 --> 01:09:26,599
Speaker 1: going to be routinely hit by massive storms and flooded.

1462
01:09:26,720 --> 01:09:29,640
Speaker 1: And I can't even get property owner's insurance. So it

1463
01:09:29,720 --> 01:09:31,880
Speaker 1: is really putting a chill on that on that whole market.

1464
01:09:31,880 --> 01:09:34,479
Speaker 1: We can put this up on the screen. This first

1465
01:09:34,560 --> 01:09:37,000
Speaker 1: element here from the Wall Street Journal. They say the

1466
01:09:37,000 --> 01:09:39,920
Speaker 1: Great Florida Migration is coming undone. A surplus of housing

1467
01:09:39,960 --> 01:09:43,280
Speaker 1: inventory and dwindling buyer interests are slowing sales. Hurricanes and

1468
01:09:43,360 --> 01:09:46,640
Speaker 1: extreme weather are making it worse. They profile at the

1469
01:09:46,680 --> 01:09:49,479
Speaker 1: beginning this man, Anthony Holmes, who was part of that

1470
01:09:49,479 --> 01:09:52,960
Speaker 1: Florida migration. He moved from a Virginia to a gated

1471
01:09:53,000 --> 01:09:56,439
Speaker 1: suburban community in Tampa. Now that he's had to leave,

1472
01:09:56,600 --> 01:09:59,400
Speaker 1: he's a victim of a glutted housing market where buyers

1473
01:09:59,400 --> 01:10:02,640
Speaker 1: are increasing hard to find. He paid five hundred and

1474
01:10:02,640 --> 01:10:05,360
Speaker 1: fifty thousand dollars for his five bedroom home, spent another

1475
01:10:05,400 --> 01:10:08,720
Speaker 1: fifty thousand dollars on solar panels and interior improvements, but

1476
01:10:08,800 --> 01:10:11,040
Speaker 1: now he's having to move back to Virginia for work.

1477
01:10:11,439 --> 01:10:13,840
Speaker 1: He thought he'd be able to sell his house right away.

1478
01:10:14,200 --> 01:10:17,760
Speaker 1: He listed it in February. He has had no luck.

1479
01:10:18,000 --> 01:10:21,880
Speaker 1: He's dropped the price five different times. He's just trying

1480
01:10:21,880 --> 01:10:24,679
Speaker 1: to break even. And he says, quote, I can't unload

1481
01:10:24,720 --> 01:10:28,839
Speaker 1: the thing in eight months. I've had zero offers.

1482
01:10:29,200 --> 01:10:29,479
Speaker 4: Jeez.

1483
01:10:29,720 --> 01:10:33,920
Speaker 1: No one even showed up to the open houses. Nobody,

1484
01:10:34,600 --> 01:10:38,200
Speaker 1: so they said. Another sign that we should all pay

1485
01:10:38,240 --> 01:10:40,559
Speaker 1: attention to here that the housing market is approaching a

1486
01:10:40,560 --> 01:10:45,600
Speaker 1: potential inflection point, is that institutional investors are starting to

1487
01:10:45,640 --> 01:10:47,800
Speaker 1: sell and pull back. Many are eager to cash in

1488
01:10:47,840 --> 01:10:49,680
Speaker 1: on the huge increase in prices that many of these

1489
01:10:49,680 --> 01:10:52,799
Speaker 1: homes have seen since twenty ten and are now pruning

1490
01:10:52,960 --> 01:10:56,760
Speaker 1: their Florida housing exposure. Just to give you a few

1491
01:10:56,800 --> 01:10:59,120
Speaker 1: more numbers than on get your reaction to all of

1492
01:10:59,160 --> 01:11:02,120
Speaker 1: this saga, they say. Tampa, Orlando and much of the

1493
01:11:02,160 --> 01:11:06,320
Speaker 1: Space Coasts are also experiencing this Florida housing reversal. Inventory

1494
01:11:06,479 --> 01:11:08,840
Speaker 1: for single family homes and condos in these areas was

1495
01:11:08,920 --> 01:11:12,400
Speaker 1: up more than fifty percent in August versus the last year.

1496
01:11:12,920 --> 01:11:16,679
Speaker 1: At the same time, demand has decreased ten percent or more.

1497
01:11:16,800 --> 01:11:18,840
Speaker 1: In these areas. About half of the homes listed for

1498
01:11:18,880 --> 01:11:21,479
Speaker 1: sale in Tambo, which is where the individual is talking about,

1499
01:11:22,240 --> 01:11:25,040
Speaker 1: was struggling to sell his home, about half of them

1500
01:11:25,200 --> 01:11:28,040
Speaker 1: have experienced price reductions. As of September ninth, that's the

1501
01:11:28,080 --> 01:11:30,920
Speaker 1: third highest share of all US major metro areas. So

1502
01:11:31,000 --> 01:11:32,600
Speaker 1: it does seem like something is going on.

1503
01:11:32,800 --> 01:11:34,880
Speaker 2: Absolutely, can we put the next one please up on

1504
01:11:34,920 --> 01:11:37,240
Speaker 2: the screen, because this is probably one of the most

1505
01:11:37,280 --> 01:11:40,439
Speaker 2: important parts, is about all of these properties that are

1506
01:11:40,479 --> 01:11:44,479
Speaker 2: for sale of skyrocketed. The guy was speculating, what are

1507
01:11:44,520 --> 01:11:46,760
Speaker 2: the odds he's or airbnbs with owners who are about

1508
01:11:46,760 --> 01:11:50,960
Speaker 2: to declare bankruptcy. But what you actually see inside all

1509
01:11:51,000 --> 01:11:53,479
Speaker 2: the data is that it's a flat housing market from

1510
01:11:53,560 --> 01:11:57,120
Speaker 2: March twenty twenty three onward. Two huge hurricanes that have

1511
01:11:57,200 --> 01:12:00,680
Speaker 2: now come through in the last year, skyrocketing insurance of

1512
01:12:00,800 --> 01:12:04,439
Speaker 2: four hundred percent, and then on top of that you

1513
01:12:04,520 --> 01:12:07,520
Speaker 2: have a lot there's not a lot of faith inside

1514
01:12:07,720 --> 01:12:11,880
Speaker 2: of the actual state that the current coluge of insurance

1515
01:12:11,880 --> 01:12:14,200
Speaker 2: system that's been put together after a lot of the

1516
01:12:14,240 --> 01:12:17,640
Speaker 2: insurance companies pulled out will even hold up. And this

1517
01:12:17,800 --> 01:12:20,160
Speaker 2: was the most interesting part to me. Let's put the

1518
01:12:20,160 --> 01:12:23,640
Speaker 2: next one please on the screen. What we saw is

1519
01:12:23,680 --> 01:12:27,760
Speaker 2: that the insurer of last resort is actually already in

1520
01:12:27,840 --> 01:12:30,559
Speaker 2: trouble and that Milton may be a big part of it.

1521
01:12:30,560 --> 01:12:33,439
Speaker 2: It's called the Citizens Property Insurance Group. It's the state

1522
01:12:33,479 --> 01:12:36,280
Speaker 2: and nonprofit home insurance that was set up as the

1523
01:12:36,400 --> 01:12:40,439
Speaker 2: last resort. One point three million policies are enforced in

1524
01:12:40,520 --> 01:12:43,880
Speaker 2: the last month, three times as many compared to five

1525
01:12:43,960 --> 01:12:47,880
Speaker 2: years ago. It's the largest provider in the entire state.

1526
01:12:48,200 --> 01:12:51,960
Speaker 2: The problem is that the governor already warned that Citizens

1527
01:12:52,160 --> 01:12:55,160
Speaker 2: was not solvent and that quote it can't function with

1528
01:12:55,240 --> 01:12:57,800
Speaker 2: millions of people on that because if a storm hits,

1529
01:12:57,840 --> 01:12:59,559
Speaker 2: it's going to cause problems for the state.

1530
01:13:00,080 --> 01:13:00,240
Speaker 4: Vote.

1531
01:13:00,280 --> 01:13:03,040
Speaker 2: Thankfully that they've avoided the worst case scenario for Milton,

1532
01:13:03,240 --> 01:13:06,479
Speaker 2: but that doesn't change that Citizens is one catastrophic storm

1533
01:13:06,520 --> 01:13:10,720
Speaker 2: away from complete and total insolvency, which means what that

1534
01:13:10,760 --> 01:13:13,200
Speaker 2: they're either going to get bailed out by the federal

1535
01:13:13,240 --> 01:13:16,639
Speaker 2: government or those insurance premiums are about to go from

1536
01:13:16,640 --> 01:13:18,560
Speaker 2: four hundred percent of five years ago to like a

1537
01:13:18,680 --> 01:13:21,839
Speaker 2: thousand percent five years ago. So you can't even imagine

1538
01:13:21,880 --> 01:13:24,960
Speaker 2: what that would do, especially in a high interest rate environment.

1539
01:13:25,200 --> 01:13:27,320
Speaker 2: Think about what your mortgage payment is going to look

1540
01:13:27,360 --> 01:13:30,760
Speaker 2: like from interest and insurance. Honestly, could even it could

1541
01:13:30,760 --> 01:13:33,160
Speaker 2: go way over principle. Maybe start to think about what

1542
01:13:33,200 --> 01:13:34,680
Speaker 2: the cost of living there would be.

1543
01:13:34,720 --> 01:13:37,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's crazy, that's absolutely true. No, I mean, if

1544
01:13:37,120 --> 01:13:39,240
Speaker 1: you think about four hundred percent increase in those costs

1545
01:13:39,280 --> 01:13:41,760
Speaker 1: over just a few years, that's mind blowing. And so

1546
01:13:41,840 --> 01:13:44,679
Speaker 1: what's happened is a bunch of the local private insurers

1547
01:13:44,880 --> 01:13:46,800
Speaker 1: just cancel palls or out or not. Yeah, they're say

1548
01:13:46,840 --> 01:13:50,120
Speaker 1: more there now. And so people were forced to, you know,

1549
01:13:50,160 --> 01:13:53,080
Speaker 1: into this property owner's insurance of last resort, which is

1550
01:13:53,560 --> 01:13:57,000
Speaker 1: you know, federal and state back Citizens Property Insurance Corporation.

1551
01:13:57,520 --> 01:14:00,880
Speaker 1: And you have politicians here in DC raising alarms that

1552
01:14:00,880 --> 01:14:03,000
Speaker 1: they're on the brink of insolvency if they get hit

1553
01:14:03,040 --> 01:14:05,960
Speaker 1: with another catastrophic event. You know, they're already probably going

1554
01:14:06,040 --> 01:14:08,280
Speaker 1: to have to pay out billions of dollars in claims

1555
01:14:08,320 --> 01:14:12,800
Speaker 1: after these two storms. And so while this outfit has

1556
01:14:12,840 --> 01:14:15,280
Speaker 1: a mechanism in order to be able to make sure

1557
01:14:15,320 --> 01:14:18,800
Speaker 1: it remain solvent, that mechanism is basically just jacking up

1558
01:14:18,800 --> 01:14:22,679
Speaker 1: the prices like crazy, not only on homes but also

1559
01:14:22,800 --> 01:14:24,800
Speaker 1: on you know, other forms of bright like cars and

1560
01:14:24,840 --> 01:14:29,320
Speaker 1: boats and whatever. And how politically feasible is that really

1561
01:14:29,360 --> 01:14:32,040
Speaker 1: going to be for whoever is governor, whether it's Rondo

1562
01:14:32,080 --> 01:14:34,320
Speaker 1: Santas or whoever's governor of the state at the time.

1563
01:14:34,760 --> 01:14:37,000
Speaker 1: And so Sheldon white House was saying, should claims exceed

1564
01:14:37,000 --> 01:14:39,639
Speaker 1: the insuran's ability to pay citizens does have a mechanism

1565
01:14:39,720 --> 01:14:42,320
Speaker 1: to pass those losses onto Florida families are already paying

1566
01:14:42,360 --> 01:14:45,599
Speaker 1: sky high premiums. Recouping billions of dollars in losses from

1567
01:14:45,600 --> 01:14:48,880
Speaker 1: Floridians is unlikely to be feasible economically or politically, let

1568
01:14:48,920 --> 01:14:51,080
Speaker 1: alone in time to pay massive claims. Hence the Budget

1569
01:14:51,080 --> 01:14:55,400
Speaker 1: Committee concern about possible requests for a federal bailout. So

1570
01:14:55,560 --> 01:14:57,720
Speaker 1: whether or not you live in Florida very possible. This

1571
01:14:57,760 --> 01:15:00,000
Speaker 1: could be a question that the whole country is faced

1572
01:15:00,120 --> 01:15:02,800
Speaker 1: with here shortly. But you know, it's an irony that

1573
01:15:02,880 --> 01:15:05,000
Speaker 1: the very things that some of the things that make

1574
01:15:05,000 --> 01:15:07,439
Speaker 1: Florida so incredibly appealing obviously is a little bit of

1575
01:15:07,439 --> 01:15:11,960
Speaker 1: the great weather, But all of this beachfront property may be,

1576
01:15:12,120 --> 01:15:14,400
Speaker 1: you know, the thing that is also causing a lot

1577
01:15:14,400 --> 01:15:18,160
Speaker 1: of people to be reluctant to relocate there because you're

1578
01:15:18,200 --> 01:15:21,439
Speaker 1: facing these storms, You're facing this property insurance, you know,

1579
01:15:21,520 --> 01:15:25,920
Speaker 1: skyrocketing property insurance impossibility in certain instances of even getting

1580
01:15:25,920 --> 01:15:29,200
Speaker 1: property insurance, and so you are already starting to see

1581
01:15:29,240 --> 01:15:30,400
Speaker 1: a reversal of some of those trends.

1582
01:15:30,439 --> 01:15:32,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to watch. Look, there's a lot of

1583
01:15:32,000 --> 01:15:33,640
Speaker 2: stuff going on. The point is is that if you

1584
01:15:33,680 --> 01:15:35,760
Speaker 2: really look at the lot of the demographics, like we're

1585
01:15:35,800 --> 01:15:38,920
Speaker 2: watching Florida now go red, I'm watching with great interest

1586
01:15:39,200 --> 01:15:41,439
Speaker 2: how North Carolina is going to go and what the

1587
01:15:41,479 --> 01:15:45,040
Speaker 2: margins of that will look like, disproportionately a lot wider

1588
01:15:45,080 --> 01:15:49,439
Speaker 2: than the more economically dinamic swing of the Sun Belt states.

1589
01:15:49,800 --> 01:15:52,200
Speaker 2: I really am also watching Nevada. Nevada's had a ton

1590
01:15:52,200 --> 01:15:55,200
Speaker 2: of economic development in the last couple of years. They've

1591
01:15:55,240 --> 01:15:58,000
Speaker 2: also had big changes in terms of like their political

1592
01:15:58,040 --> 01:16:01,200
Speaker 2: outlook and who they may vote for. America is changing

1593
01:16:01,560 --> 01:16:03,439
Speaker 2: a lot. America is changing a lot. I think it's

1594
01:16:03,479 --> 01:16:05,960
Speaker 2: part of the most exciting things about covering this stuff.

1595
01:16:06,000 --> 01:16:07,600
Speaker 2: And you know, a lot of the bowl case for

1596
01:16:07,680 --> 01:16:10,040
Speaker 2: Florida is now becoming a little bit of a bear case.

1597
01:16:10,080 --> 01:16:12,320
Speaker 2: So you should definitely think about that when you are

1598
01:16:12,360 --> 01:16:13,520
Speaker 2: making decisions.

1599
01:16:16,200 --> 01:16:19,920
Speaker 1: So we have a stunning potential development out of Israel

1600
01:16:20,000 --> 01:16:21,880
Speaker 1: and Gaza strip. We could go ahead and put this

1601
01:16:21,960 --> 01:16:25,800
Speaker 1: tear sheet up on the screen from Axios. Israel is

1602
01:16:25,800 --> 01:16:30,439
Speaker 1: apparently investigating the possible death of hamas leader Yeah Yeah

1603
01:16:30,439 --> 01:16:34,960
Speaker 1: Sinwar Sinwar credative of course, with some of the architecting

1604
01:16:35,080 --> 01:16:38,639
Speaker 1: of October seventh. He has been probably the primary target

1605
01:16:38,840 --> 01:16:43,160
Speaker 1: for assassination by Israel post October seventh. There are some

1606
01:16:43,960 --> 01:16:47,799
Speaker 1: gruesome images floating around social media of the individuals purported

1607
01:16:47,840 --> 01:16:52,400
Speaker 1: to be Yeah Yeah Sinwar after this strike that potentially

1608
01:16:52,479 --> 01:16:56,639
Speaker 1: killed him. That has not been firmly confirmed at all yet.

1609
01:16:56,840 --> 01:16:59,280
Speaker 1: The IDEAF is still investigating it, so we wanted to

1610
01:16:59,280 --> 01:17:02,840
Speaker 1: bring you everything we know. You know, just looking at him, Sager,

1611
01:17:02,960 --> 01:17:04,879
Speaker 1: it does look like it could be him.

1612
01:17:04,760 --> 01:17:06,320
Speaker 2: Looking at the pot. We're not going to put the

1613
01:17:06,320 --> 01:17:09,439
Speaker 2: photos up there. They're pretty gruesome and some of the

1614
01:17:09,520 --> 01:17:11,800
Speaker 2: details are a bit odd. So from what we know,

1615
01:17:12,360 --> 01:17:14,720
Speaker 2: what is it right now? It looks like it was

1616
01:17:14,880 --> 01:17:17,519
Speaker 2: as a result of a drone strike, and it was

1617
01:17:17,560 --> 01:17:23,160
Speaker 2: a drone strike on three individuals who were walking, I think,

1618
01:17:23,439 --> 01:17:26,360
Speaker 2: And it was after they discovered the remains that they

1619
01:17:26,400 --> 01:17:29,120
Speaker 2: were like, oh man, this could be Sinwar. So they're

1620
01:17:29,160 --> 01:17:33,600
Speaker 2: doing genetic testing, like they said, right now, to confirm

1621
01:17:33,800 --> 01:17:36,600
Speaker 2: with one hundred percent certainty, and apparently they still have

1622
01:17:36,640 --> 01:17:40,519
Speaker 2: to clear explosive devices from the scene. But I mean

1623
01:17:41,000 --> 01:17:43,559
Speaker 2: just purely like looking at him, it definitely looks it

1624
01:17:43,600 --> 01:17:45,879
Speaker 2: looks more like him than it did when they caught Saddam,

1625
01:17:45,920 --> 01:17:46,679
Speaker 2: I'll put it that way.

1626
01:17:46,840 --> 01:17:47,160
Speaker 1: That's true.

1627
01:17:47,200 --> 01:17:48,479
Speaker 2: Well they got Saddam. I was like, I don't know

1628
01:17:48,479 --> 01:17:50,400
Speaker 2: if that really I mean, cameras were different.

1629
01:17:50,120 --> 01:17:52,599
Speaker 1: Than but so they said. Israeli officials claim the incident

1630
01:17:52,640 --> 01:17:56,639
Speaker 1: was coincidental, not based on intelligence. They say that during

1631
01:17:56,640 --> 01:17:59,280
Speaker 1: a routine patrol by the ID after soldiers encounter three

1632
01:17:59,400 --> 01:18:02,320
Speaker 1: arm bending, changed fire and killed them. And then it

1633
01:18:02,400 --> 01:18:04,800
Speaker 1: was after the fact that one of the soldiers saw

1634
01:18:04,840 --> 01:18:06,360
Speaker 1: the face of one of the bodies and thought that

1635
01:18:06,439 --> 01:18:10,080
Speaker 1: he resembled Sinwar, but his identity could not be immediately confirmed.

1636
01:18:10,840 --> 01:18:14,200
Speaker 1: You know, obviously if Sinware, if this was indeed Sinwar

1637
01:18:14,320 --> 01:18:17,719
Speaker 1: and he is now dead, that is an extraordinarily significant development.

1638
01:18:17,760 --> 01:18:19,719
Speaker 1: As I mentioned before, it was probably the top target

1639
01:18:20,360 --> 01:18:23,200
Speaker 1: of Israel in terms of him being the architect of

1640
01:18:23,280 --> 01:18:27,680
Speaker 1: October seventh. And you know, if you had a different administration,

1641
01:18:27,800 --> 01:18:31,120
Speaker 1: they might look at this. Both the US and Israeli administration.

1642
01:18:31,200 --> 01:18:32,880
Speaker 1: They might look at this and say, hey, let's take

1643
01:18:32,920 --> 01:18:34,760
Speaker 1: the w here I was going, we got our man.

1644
01:18:34,880 --> 01:18:36,920
Speaker 2: There's actually two ways that we could go, you know,

1645
01:18:37,000 --> 01:18:39,479
Speaker 2: and in some ways it's not a bad development because

1646
01:18:39,560 --> 01:18:42,360
Speaker 2: sin War is one of the I mean, we were

1647
01:18:42,400 --> 01:18:45,840
Speaker 2: reading reporting he wanted to renew suicide bombers. He was

1648
01:18:45,920 --> 01:18:49,200
Speaker 2: the guy who what is it who greenlit and planned

1649
01:18:49,240 --> 01:18:52,600
Speaker 2: a lot of the October seventh attacks, and cynically, you know,

1650
01:18:52,640 --> 01:18:55,479
Speaker 2: there'd been obviously an analysis that maybe Israel had put

1651
01:18:55,520 --> 01:18:58,000
Speaker 2: itself in a position to elevate sin War so he

1652
01:18:58,040 --> 01:19:00,600
Speaker 2: could be like that radical wing of the party. So,

1653
01:19:00,720 --> 01:19:02,719
Speaker 2: like you just said, it's one of those where look,

1654
01:19:02,840 --> 01:19:04,680
Speaker 2: imagine if a year into the war on Terror we

1655
01:19:04,720 --> 01:19:06,519
Speaker 2: got bin Laden. That would be a great argument for

1656
01:19:06,720 --> 01:19:10,120
Speaker 2: let's wrap it. Yeah, it's like we're good, Yeah, congratulations,

1657
01:19:10,160 --> 01:19:12,800
Speaker 2: now let's go. One could go that way. The other

1658
01:19:12,960 --> 01:19:15,479
Speaker 2: unfortunate way that they're more likely to do it is

1659
01:19:15,880 --> 01:19:18,000
Speaker 2: just be like yes, but now about what about his loop?

1660
01:19:18,080 --> 01:19:19,920
Speaker 2: This is what they did with Hesbola immediately went from

1661
01:19:19,960 --> 01:19:22,559
Speaker 2: Nostrella to number the guy who replaced Nostralita, and then

1662
01:19:22,600 --> 01:19:25,160
Speaker 2: the guy who replaced the replacement of Nasralla. And it's

1663
01:19:25,200 --> 01:19:27,599
Speaker 2: not like anything has changed all that much. So that's

1664
01:19:27,760 --> 01:19:30,320
Speaker 2: what we did. Fortunate reality, that's exactly. Yeah.

1665
01:19:30,320 --> 01:19:31,800
Speaker 1: I mean, we already know the answer is going to

1666
01:19:31,840 --> 01:19:33,759
Speaker 1: be there, not going to take the w and say, okay,

1667
01:19:33,800 --> 01:19:35,599
Speaker 1: we did it, let's move on. But you know, this

1668
01:19:35,640 --> 01:19:37,760
Speaker 1: is something I'd love to talk to Jeremy Scahill more

1669
01:19:37,800 --> 01:19:41,559
Speaker 1: about because he's interviewed right some of you know HAMAS

1670
01:19:41,600 --> 01:19:45,320
Speaker 1: members and members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad as well. But

1671
01:19:45,520 --> 01:19:48,280
Speaker 1: you know, my general understanding is that Ismael Haniah, who

1672
01:19:48,280 --> 01:19:50,040
Speaker 1: was the head of the political wing of HAMAS, who

1673
01:19:50,080 --> 01:19:54,280
Speaker 1: was previously assassinated by Israel In while he was in Tehran,

1674
01:19:54,360 --> 01:19:58,000
Speaker 1: actually in Iran, that he was more you know, I

1675
01:19:58,040 --> 01:20:00,280
Speaker 1: know it seems preposterous to talk about a modern wing

1676
01:20:00,280 --> 01:20:02,920
Speaker 1: of Hamas, but he was more interested in a diplomatic solution.

1677
01:20:03,760 --> 01:20:06,639
Speaker 1: He was less enamored with some of the more sort

1678
01:20:06,680 --> 01:20:10,559
Speaker 1: of like you know, terrorists or violent activities that Hamas

1679
01:20:10,560 --> 01:20:12,960
Speaker 1: has in particular engaged in, not only in October seventh

1680
01:20:13,000 --> 01:20:14,880
Speaker 1: fees of the civilians, but in the past with regard

1681
01:20:14,920 --> 01:20:17,320
Speaker 1: to suicide bombings, and so he was someone knew that

1682
01:20:17,360 --> 01:20:19,640
Speaker 1: you could more easily work with and imagine coming in

1683
01:20:19,680 --> 01:20:24,360
Speaker 1: a diplomatic solution Sinwar more of the hardliner And there

1684
01:20:24,400 --> 01:20:26,040
Speaker 1: had been some reporting, I don't know whether it's true

1685
01:20:26,120 --> 01:20:27,880
Speaker 1: or not, but that he was thinking again of hey,

1686
01:20:27,920 --> 01:20:30,040
Speaker 1: we need to you know, get back into the suicide

1687
01:20:30,080 --> 01:20:35,000
Speaker 1: bombing business. And so if he is now taken out

1688
01:20:35,320 --> 01:20:38,759
Speaker 1: as head of Hamas, who knows who fills that vacuum

1689
01:20:38,800 --> 01:20:41,479
Speaker 1: and what the ideology is coming next, you know what

1690
01:20:41,960 --> 01:20:44,760
Speaker 1: version of their ideology it is. In any case, we'll

1691
01:20:44,800 --> 01:20:46,880
Speaker 1: keep an eye on it and you know, see if

1692
01:20:46,880 --> 01:20:49,439
Speaker 1: this is ultimately confirmed right now continues to be a

1693
01:20:49,439 --> 01:20:51,920
Speaker 1: big question mark. What is not a big question mark

1694
01:20:52,080 --> 01:20:56,400
Speaker 1: is that Israel continues with their offensive, both in Gaza,

1695
01:20:56,439 --> 01:20:59,440
Speaker 1: also in other parts of the region, but most specifically

1696
01:20:59,520 --> 01:21:02,120
Speaker 1: in Leben. We can put this images up on the screen.

1697
01:21:02,560 --> 01:21:05,200
Speaker 1: This is a video of just the detonation of an

1698
01:21:05,520 --> 01:21:12,640
Speaker 1: entire residential neighborhood in a southern Lebanon town. You know,

1699
01:21:12,880 --> 01:21:15,840
Speaker 1: hard to imagine this being really like a precision strike

1700
01:21:15,960 --> 01:21:19,120
Speaker 1: to get the baddies and Hesbala when you just you know,

1701
01:21:19,400 --> 01:21:24,120
Speaker 1: wantonly destroy an entire village. So that's what you're looking

1702
01:21:24,160 --> 01:21:26,960
Speaker 1: at there. We also have some domestic news, some new

1703
01:21:27,040 --> 01:21:31,200
Speaker 1: revelations about you guys. Recall there was that effectively pro

1704
01:21:31,360 --> 01:21:35,240
Speaker 1: rape riot at a torture facility they call it a

1705
01:21:35,240 --> 01:21:40,960
Speaker 1: detention center for Palestinian detainees, where soldiers who were accused

1706
01:21:40,960 --> 01:21:42,559
Speaker 1: and I mean the evidence is all there. I think

1707
01:21:42,560 --> 01:21:44,559
Speaker 1: to even give them the benefit of the doubt at

1708
01:21:44,600 --> 01:21:47,960
Speaker 1: this point is very generous. Who are accused of raping

1709
01:21:48,000 --> 01:21:53,160
Speaker 1: a Palestinian detainee. The military police came in to arrest

1710
01:21:53,400 --> 01:21:57,599
Speaker 1: these suspects and there was a massive revolt among his

1711
01:21:57,720 --> 01:22:00,400
Speaker 1: fellow soldiers, but also among a bunch of right wing

1712
01:22:00,439 --> 01:22:05,200
Speaker 1: groups including LACUD party members and ministers that's Benjamin net

1713
01:22:05,280 --> 01:22:10,280
Speaker 1: Yahoo's party. Ultimately, you know they're after a huge backlash.

1714
01:22:10,439 --> 01:22:14,400
Speaker 1: They you know, they had to take them to different facilities.

1715
01:22:14,439 --> 01:22:17,439
Speaker 1: It was a wild scene and now we're learning new details.

1716
01:22:17,520 --> 01:22:19,559
Speaker 1: We can put this up on the screen that those

1717
01:22:19,600 --> 01:22:24,679
Speaker 1: soldiers not only did they protest, there are fellow soldiers

1718
01:22:24,720 --> 01:22:27,880
Speaker 1: who were again accused of raping a palaes Didnian detainee.

1719
01:22:28,200 --> 01:22:32,240
Speaker 1: Not only did they protest, but they also attacked those

1720
01:22:32,320 --> 01:22:38,760
Speaker 1: military police investigators. They also used held them at gunpoint

1721
01:22:39,040 --> 01:22:42,240
Speaker 1: and barricaded themselves with the suspects to try to keep

1722
01:22:42,280 --> 01:22:46,360
Speaker 1: them from getting arrested. Military police has witness testimonies to

1723
01:22:46,360 --> 01:22:49,720
Speaker 1: the assault. It has not, though, been investigated, on the

1724
01:22:49,760 --> 01:22:53,599
Speaker 1: grounds that the assaulted soldiers are afraid to officially complain,

1725
01:22:54,040 --> 01:22:56,000
Speaker 1: even though and it's after mass some of the investigators

1726
01:22:56,040 --> 01:22:59,280
Speaker 1: involved stop fulfilling operational roles and one stop showing up

1727
01:22:59,520 --> 01:23:02,760
Speaker 1: for duty. So these are also you know, people are

1728
01:23:02,760 --> 01:23:06,040
Speaker 1: in the military. The military police who came to arrest

1729
01:23:06,120 --> 01:23:09,760
Speaker 1: these individuals accused of grave crimes with quite a lot

1730
01:23:09,760 --> 01:23:14,720
Speaker 1: of evidence, and the fellow soldiers take out their weapons,

1731
01:23:14,880 --> 01:23:19,080
Speaker 1: barricade them in rooms, assault them directly, and there's been

1732
01:23:19,240 --> 01:23:23,120
Speaker 1: zero investigation into any of this because effectively, you know,

1733
01:23:23,360 --> 01:23:26,960
Speaker 1: the government, certainly a significant part of Israeli society supported

1734
01:23:27,400 --> 01:23:29,519
Speaker 1: the side that was like, we don't think that, we

1735
01:23:29,560 --> 01:23:31,760
Speaker 1: think it should be fine for soldiers to rape Palestinians

1736
01:23:31,760 --> 01:23:33,720
Speaker 1: and there should be no consequences. Oh yeah, just a

1737
01:23:33,760 --> 01:23:35,960
Speaker 1: wild sign of where the society is.

1738
01:23:36,040 --> 01:23:38,479
Speaker 2: The inside of it is totally crazy, especially with that

1739
01:23:38,600 --> 01:23:42,479
Speaker 2: riot that would happened, and then now the the what

1740
01:23:42,600 --> 01:23:46,400
Speaker 2: is it the actual internal efforts to police it is crazy.

1741
01:23:46,439 --> 01:23:49,880
Speaker 2: They literally attack the military police for arrested them. You

1742
01:23:49,920 --> 01:23:52,800
Speaker 2: can't even imagine what this would look like in the

1743
01:23:52,920 --> 01:23:56,120
Speaker 2: US military or for our discipline. I mean, it would

1744
01:23:56,160 --> 01:24:00,519
Speaker 2: be a total destruction of like chain of command, of justice,

1745
01:24:00,600 --> 01:24:05,000
Speaker 2: of everything that they pride themselves on, the professionalization, professionalization

1746
01:24:05,080 --> 01:24:08,840
Speaker 2: of the force. From my lie on, it's just absolute madness,

1747
01:24:08,920 --> 01:24:11,599
Speaker 2: like and think even look, Abu Grad was shameful, right,

1748
01:24:11,640 --> 01:24:13,439
Speaker 2: but there was a lot done to make sure that

1749
01:24:13,520 --> 01:24:15,840
Speaker 2: something like that never ever happened again. This is the

1750
01:24:15,880 --> 01:24:18,200
Speaker 2: opposite reaction. This would be like if they got away

1751
01:24:18,240 --> 01:24:20,439
Speaker 2: with it, and worse that when they were arrested, that

1752
01:24:20,479 --> 01:24:23,240
Speaker 2: the people there actually turned and cited with those who

1753
01:24:23,240 --> 01:24:23,920
Speaker 2: were at Abu Gra.

1754
01:24:24,080 --> 01:24:27,160
Speaker 1: That's exactly right. Yeah, it's it's wild to comprent. And

1755
01:24:27,160 --> 01:24:30,679
Speaker 1: then the fact that they're you know, basically the government's like, oh,

1756
01:24:30,720 --> 01:24:33,000
Speaker 1: we're on the side of the people who you know,

1757
01:24:33,200 --> 01:24:36,120
Speaker 1: took out their weapons and assaulted the military police trying

1758
01:24:36,120 --> 01:24:38,839
Speaker 1: to do their job and invest in you know, investigate

1759
01:24:38,880 --> 01:24:42,040
Speaker 1: these people and bring them into detention. Yeah, it tells

1760
01:24:42,040 --> 01:24:43,960
Speaker 1: you a lot. Let's go and put this next piece

1761
01:24:44,040 --> 01:24:46,320
Speaker 1: up on the screen. This was quite an interesting opinion

1762
01:24:46,360 --> 01:24:50,639
Speaker 1: piece published in an Israeli newspaper Haretz. The author here

1763
01:24:50,920 --> 01:24:54,400
Speaker 1: Yatak Brink, Major General Yatak Brick served in the Armor

1764
01:24:54,439 --> 01:24:57,320
Speaker 1: Corps as a brigade divisioning troop commander, as commander of

1765
01:24:57,360 --> 01:24:59,760
Speaker 1: the IDF military colleges for ten years. He was the

1766
01:24:59,760 --> 01:25:04,240
Speaker 1: i ombudsman. So this is no You know, anti Zionists,

1767
01:25:04,280 --> 01:25:07,479
Speaker 1: pink care lefty on a college campus and the headline

1768
01:25:07,520 --> 01:25:09,840
Speaker 1: is Israel will collapse within a year if the war

1769
01:25:09,880 --> 01:25:13,000
Speaker 1: of attrition against Hamas and has Blood continues. So you

1770
01:25:13,000 --> 01:25:14,880
Speaker 1: know this person who is very invested in the future

1771
01:25:14,880 --> 01:25:17,559
Speaker 1: of the Israeli state, who is founding the warning, he says,

1772
01:25:17,560 --> 01:25:20,400
Speaker 1: I assume Defense Minister Golan already understands the war has

1773
01:25:20,439 --> 01:25:23,559
Speaker 1: lost its purpose. Israel's thinking deeper into the gosen mud,

1774
01:25:23,600 --> 01:25:25,320
Speaker 1: losing war and more soldiers as they get killed or

1775
01:25:25,320 --> 01:25:28,880
Speaker 1: wounded without any chance of achieving the war's main goal

1776
01:25:29,160 --> 01:25:31,760
Speaker 1: bringing down Hamas. The country really is galloping towards the

1777
01:25:31,840 --> 01:25:35,120
Speaker 1: edge of an abyss. If the war of a attrition continues,

1778
01:25:35,240 --> 01:25:37,880
Speaker 1: Israel will collapse within no more than a year. Terror

1779
01:25:37,920 --> 01:25:40,120
Speaker 1: attacks are intensifying the West Bank and inside the country.

1780
01:25:40,200 --> 01:25:42,639
Speaker 1: The reserved army is voting with its feet following recurring

1781
01:25:42,680 --> 01:25:46,679
Speaker 1: mobilizations of combat soldiers, and the economy is crashing. Israel's

1782
01:25:46,680 --> 01:25:49,920
Speaker 1: also become a pariah state, prompting economic boycotts and an

1783
01:25:49,960 --> 01:25:54,599
Speaker 1: embargo on arms shipment. So you know, we've seen some

1784
01:25:55,000 --> 01:25:58,080
Speaker 1: ezy right, I don't know, but we've seen some signs that,

1785
01:25:58,160 --> 01:26:00,200
Speaker 1: you know, they've got real problems. There are more more

1786
01:26:00,240 --> 01:26:02,880
Speaker 1: countries who are saying we're not going to ship you

1787
01:26:03,040 --> 01:26:06,680
Speaker 1: weapons anymore. You have the US doing I don't have.

1788
01:26:06,880 --> 01:26:09,439
Speaker 1: I don't feel like it has much credibility. But this

1789
01:26:09,520 --> 01:26:11,680
Speaker 1: letter from the State Department saying basically like you got

1790
01:26:11,720 --> 01:26:13,680
Speaker 1: to shape up with regard to eight or you know,

1791
01:26:14,000 --> 01:26:17,760
Speaker 1: there may be consequences. They're already sending signals that like, no,

1792
01:26:17,880 --> 01:26:20,639
Speaker 1: actually there won't be consequences. But the US sending that letter,

1793
01:26:20,680 --> 01:26:23,760
Speaker 1: I mean, it is something. And certainly the NETNYA who

1794
01:26:23,840 --> 01:26:27,719
Speaker 1: is government is fearful that if Kamala Harris were elected

1795
01:26:27,800 --> 01:26:30,720
Speaker 1: or even post election, that bide my feely as a

1796
01:26:30,720 --> 01:26:33,880
Speaker 1: freer hand to take some sort of actions against them.

1797
01:26:34,120 --> 01:26:36,479
Speaker 1: But more to the point, we've seen businesses pulling out.

1798
01:26:36,520 --> 01:26:39,160
Speaker 1: We've seen Intel was supposed to go forward with some

1799
01:26:39,240 --> 01:26:41,760
Speaker 1: significant investment in the state that they back down of.

1800
01:26:42,080 --> 01:26:45,519
Speaker 1: You have an incredible burden on society from these multiple

1801
01:26:45,560 --> 01:26:48,400
Speaker 1: wars that they're fighting and constantly trying to escalate. And

1802
01:26:48,439 --> 01:26:50,400
Speaker 1: you even had a letter from some one hundred and

1803
01:26:50,400 --> 01:26:54,200
Speaker 1: thirty IDF members who said, no, if you don't go

1804
01:26:54,320 --> 01:26:56,599
Speaker 1: and get a hostage deal and bring home the hostages

1805
01:26:56,640 --> 01:26:58,679
Speaker 1: and have a sea spy, like, we're not doing this anymore,

1806
01:26:58,680 --> 01:27:01,240
Speaker 1: We're going to refuse to serve. So the cracks are

1807
01:27:01,280 --> 01:27:05,160
Speaker 1: certainly showing, and so it's not preposterous this assessment from

1808
01:27:05,240 --> 01:27:07,879
Speaker 1: this individual, especially when you consider the numbers of Israelis

1809
01:27:07,880 --> 01:27:10,200
Speaker 1: who have said, yeah, I've thought about leaving, and I've

1810
01:27:10,240 --> 01:27:12,880
Speaker 1: taken some steps to investigate what that could look like.

1811
01:27:13,080 --> 01:27:15,559
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I just don't know what to make

1812
01:27:15,600 --> 01:27:18,680
Speaker 2: of all of these developments and what the Biden administration

1813
01:27:18,840 --> 01:27:22,840
Speaker 2: really will do after the election. They have multiple different

1814
01:27:22,880 --> 01:27:26,240
Speaker 2: opportunities about what to do and which policy. You know,

1815
01:27:26,320 --> 01:27:30,840
Speaker 2: for example, the Obama administration allowed some anti or not

1816
01:27:31,439 --> 01:27:36,280
Speaker 2: critical resolutions against Israel to go through the UN Security

1817
01:27:36,320 --> 01:27:40,200
Speaker 2: Council after the election when Trump was coming into office

1818
01:27:40,280 --> 01:27:42,720
Speaker 2: during the transition, so they could take them. But I mean,

1819
01:27:42,760 --> 01:27:44,400
Speaker 2: all signs don't currently indicate that.

1820
01:27:44,600 --> 01:27:44,800
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1821
01:27:44,840 --> 01:27:46,720
Speaker 2: Right now, I just I really don't know why which

1822
01:27:46,760 --> 01:27:49,120
Speaker 2: way it's going to go. Astra stinwhar while you were talking,

1823
01:27:49,160 --> 01:27:52,120
Speaker 2: I was just making sure. Still don't see anything right

1824
01:27:52,160 --> 01:27:55,479
Speaker 2: now for me? Barak Revid says. Three Israeli officials say

1825
01:27:55,520 --> 01:27:58,280
Speaker 2: one of the bodies is most likely Sinwar. They will

1826
01:27:58,280 --> 01:28:01,080
Speaker 2: have to wait for DNA and fingerprint analysis. They say

1827
01:28:01,080 --> 01:28:03,040
Speaker 2: that Israel has both his DNA and his finger friends

1828
01:28:03,040 --> 01:28:04,920
Speaker 2: from the time that he is in prison, so they'll

1829
01:28:04,960 --> 01:28:06,679
Speaker 2: be able to know relatively short.

1830
01:28:06,720 --> 01:28:08,479
Speaker 1: So be crazy for him to just be like out

1831
01:28:08,520 --> 01:28:08,960
Speaker 1: and about.

1832
01:28:09,400 --> 01:28:12,679
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, it's kind of mad to be not tracked,

1833
01:28:12,760 --> 01:28:15,439
Speaker 2: to be out and about with two bodyguards. I mean

1834
01:28:15,600 --> 01:28:18,080
Speaker 2: it also, frankly, I mean in terms of the Israeli

1835
01:28:18,160 --> 01:28:21,240
Speaker 2: intelligence machine, what does it say about them? They've been

1836
01:28:21,240 --> 01:28:23,160
Speaker 2: telling us like he's underground.

1837
01:28:22,760 --> 01:28:24,960
Speaker 1: I know exactly, you know exactly where it is.

1838
01:28:25,200 --> 01:28:27,920
Speaker 2: He's surrounded by hostages at all times. You know this

1839
01:28:28,040 --> 01:28:30,360
Speaker 2: is like, so which one is it? I mean, frankly,

1840
01:28:30,360 --> 01:28:31,680
Speaker 2: what he was doing is probably the smart thing. You

1841
01:28:31,680 --> 01:28:33,240
Speaker 2: actually want to keep a low profile. You don't want

1842
01:28:33,240 --> 01:28:35,160
Speaker 2: a bunch of guys around you. They're probably looking for

1843
01:28:35,160 --> 01:28:36,760
Speaker 2: the hostages more so you don't necessarily want to be

1844
01:28:37,120 --> 01:28:38,920
Speaker 2: around them. And the fact that he got caught on

1845
01:28:38,960 --> 01:28:40,880
Speaker 2: the ground like walking out in the open is kind

1846
01:28:40,880 --> 01:28:43,920
Speaker 2: of insane for it to be the literal leader of Hamas.

1847
01:28:44,000 --> 01:28:45,640
Speaker 2: But maybe we'll learn a little bit more about it.

1848
01:28:45,680 --> 01:28:47,800
Speaker 2: They basically got it by accident. It looks like this

1849
01:28:47,920 --> 01:28:50,559
Speaker 2: was no bin laden style operations. Yeah, if it is

1850
01:28:50,600 --> 01:28:51,240
Speaker 2: one hundred percent.

1851
01:28:52,280 --> 01:28:55,559
Speaker 1: So one quick update on that letter that I referenced

1852
01:28:55,560 --> 01:28:58,160
Speaker 1: before from the Biden administration to the Israelis was trying

1853
01:28:58,160 --> 01:28:59,760
Speaker 1: to put pressure on them with regard to be her

1854
01:29:00,400 --> 01:29:03,080
Speaker 1: lack of aid in Gaza in general, but Northern Gaza

1855
01:29:03,120 --> 01:29:06,640
Speaker 1: in particular, where no aid had gone in in the

1856
01:29:06,680 --> 01:29:10,120
Speaker 1: month of October whatsoever. We could put this up on

1857
01:29:10,160 --> 01:29:12,080
Speaker 1: the screen. So the idea in the State Department, this

1858
01:29:12,160 --> 01:29:15,120
Speaker 1: is per our own Ryan Graham are both claiming fifty

1859
01:29:15,160 --> 01:29:18,120
Speaker 1: AID trucks have entered North Gaza, but reporters on the

1860
01:29:18,160 --> 01:29:22,480
Speaker 1: ground say this is false. We have a Palestinian journalist

1861
01:29:22,600 --> 01:29:25,400
Speaker 1: who elaborated on this. We could put this up on

1862
01:29:25,439 --> 01:29:29,080
Speaker 1: the screen as well. They say, the images and videos

1863
01:29:29,120 --> 01:29:31,599
Speaker 1: you're seeing that claim to show aid reaching Northern Gaza

1864
01:29:31,600 --> 01:29:33,800
Speaker 1: are highly misleading, part of a larger narrative being pushed

1865
01:29:33,840 --> 01:29:36,719
Speaker 1: by the Israeli military. I can confidently assert no aid

1866
01:29:36,720 --> 01:29:39,400
Speaker 1: trucks have entered the besieged areas. The AID that is

1867
01:29:39,560 --> 01:29:41,679
Speaker 1: entered has only gone to the southern parts of Gaza,

1868
01:29:41,880 --> 01:29:44,640
Speaker 1: was intended primarily for media and propaganda purposes. Not a

1869
01:29:44,680 --> 01:29:47,679
Speaker 1: single truck has reached the northern areas since the start

1870
01:29:47,760 --> 01:29:51,200
Speaker 1: of the military operation there. And you know this is

1871
01:29:52,439 --> 01:29:55,840
Speaker 1: because the US sent this letter. The very likely game

1872
01:29:55,880 --> 01:29:57,920
Speaker 1: that's going to be played here is they'll do this

1873
01:29:57,960 --> 01:30:00,599
Speaker 1: photo op with some more AID trucks. You els, will

1874
01:30:00,680 --> 01:30:02,720
Speaker 1: use it to be able to see they're doing their job,

1875
01:30:02,800 --> 01:30:04,840
Speaker 1: and we put pressure on them, and look how great

1876
01:30:04,840 --> 01:30:07,240
Speaker 1: we are and it's amazing. Problem solved. We're moving on

1877
01:30:07,680 --> 01:30:09,880
Speaker 1: and not take any sort of you know, not to

1878
01:30:10,000 --> 01:30:13,200
Speaker 1: change course whatsoever. That seems like the likely direction that

1879
01:30:13,240 --> 01:30:17,519
Speaker 1: we're ultimately going in here, based on the evidence we

1880
01:30:17,600 --> 01:30:19,759
Speaker 1: have and the track record we have as of today.

1881
01:30:19,800 --> 01:30:20,240
Speaker 4: That's right.

1882
01:30:22,720 --> 01:30:25,680
Speaker 2: All right, let's get to CNN. Wanted to make sure

1883
01:30:25,720 --> 01:30:28,679
Speaker 2: we covered there are two wild things that happened on CNN.

1884
01:30:28,760 --> 01:30:32,200
Speaker 2: Both it appears on the topic of race. So let's

1885
01:30:32,240 --> 01:30:35,559
Speaker 2: start with the first. There was a segment in which

1886
01:30:35,600 --> 01:30:40,400
Speaker 2: you had a pro Trump, pro Trump supporter who was

1887
01:30:40,439 --> 01:30:43,760
Speaker 2: black against a Kamala supporter and a host and some

1888
01:30:43,840 --> 01:30:46,320
Speaker 2: wild language was used. Let's take a lesson.

1889
01:30:46,640 --> 01:30:49,240
Speaker 7: If you're an African American man. Look, let me boil

1890
01:30:49,280 --> 01:30:52,160
Speaker 7: this election down in the African American community to a

1891
01:30:52,280 --> 01:30:56,960
Speaker 7: very simple I'll reference to Great Malcolm X. This race

1892
01:30:57,040 --> 01:31:01,360
Speaker 7: is between house African Americans and field African Americans.

1893
01:31:01,439 --> 01:31:02,440
Speaker 4: And the field.

1894
01:31:02,080 --> 01:31:05,400
Speaker 7: African Americans are going for Donald Trump. I'm talking about

1895
01:31:05,400 --> 01:31:08,439
Speaker 7: your men who I'm talking about, Your men who build,

1896
01:31:08,800 --> 01:31:11,439
Speaker 7: your men who put things together, your men who work

1897
01:31:11,520 --> 01:31:13,920
Speaker 7: with their hands, your men who do things, not the

1898
01:31:13,920 --> 01:31:16,439
Speaker 7: men who push paper, and the men who are connected

1899
01:31:16,479 --> 01:31:18,920
Speaker 7: the power and want to continue to be connected to power.

1900
01:31:19,080 --> 01:31:20,120
Speaker 7: Are you derating me?

1901
01:31:20,840 --> 01:31:24,360
Speaker 9: Are you denigrating or debating African American men who are

1902
01:31:24,400 --> 01:31:26,679
Speaker 9: professionals who work in white collar jobs?

1903
01:31:26,720 --> 01:31:28,439
Speaker 1: Is that what I'm hearing from you or No.

1904
01:31:29,800 --> 01:31:32,040
Speaker 10: I'm not trying to understand, Shelley the house, what I'm

1905
01:31:32,080 --> 01:31:34,200
Speaker 10: doing the field. I'm just trying to understand that point.

1906
01:31:34,200 --> 01:31:37,280
Speaker 10: I'm just trying to understand. We have someone who's spitting

1907
01:31:37,560 --> 01:31:39,719
Speaker 10: I'm just trying understand the one that's spitting talking points

1908
01:31:39,760 --> 01:31:41,360
Speaker 10: right now. Are you Are you the house negro of

1909
01:31:41,360 --> 01:31:43,160
Speaker 10: the field negbro that you're referring to so I just

1910
01:31:43,160 --> 01:31:46,120
Speaker 10: want to make sure your question was about denigrating black people.

1911
01:31:46,280 --> 01:31:47,360
Speaker 10: That literally was your question.

1912
01:31:47,840 --> 01:31:48,360
Speaker 6: You have a.

1913
01:31:48,400 --> 01:31:53,080
Speaker 10: Republican right who was talking right now about you literally

1914
01:31:53,120 --> 01:31:56,080
Speaker 10: just said that black men. You just you actually just said,

1915
01:31:56,120 --> 01:31:59,840
Speaker 10: this is an election about house or field. This is

1916
01:31:59,880 --> 01:32:02,720
Speaker 10: the nonsense that we are listening to right now by

1917
01:32:02,760 --> 01:32:04,280
Speaker 10: those that are supporting Donald Trump.

1918
01:32:05,040 --> 01:32:08,800
Speaker 2: All right, So that was wild Shelley Winter is his name.

1919
01:32:08,840 --> 01:32:13,639
Speaker 2: He's a pro Trump radio host. I just I'm like, man, man,

1920
01:32:13,840 --> 01:32:17,280
Speaker 2: you know, why, why what do you want to use

1921
01:32:17,280 --> 01:32:21,120
Speaker 2: that terminology? There are probably ten million better ways to

1922
01:32:21,200 --> 01:32:24,680
Speaker 2: make that point. I mean, in a certain sense, you're like,

1923
01:32:24,720 --> 01:32:26,719
Speaker 2: I get what you're trying to say. You're talking about

1924
01:32:27,040 --> 01:32:29,400
Speaker 2: highly educated, like elite black.

1925
01:32:29,240 --> 01:32:32,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, but we versus like people remember.

1926
01:32:32,520 --> 01:32:35,720
Speaker 2: A blue collar But you're like, dude, this is that

1927
01:32:36,360 --> 01:32:37,440
Speaker 2: appropriate analogy.

1928
01:32:37,600 --> 01:32:41,479
Speaker 1: Eighty percent, roughly perhaps more of black people in this

1929
01:32:41,479 --> 01:32:42,519
Speaker 1: country are going to overcome one.

1930
01:32:42,600 --> 01:32:43,160
Speaker 2: Yes, that's right.

1931
01:32:43,439 --> 01:32:48,080
Speaker 1: So you are insulting eighty percent of black merits not

1932
01:32:48,160 --> 01:32:51,800
Speaker 1: to mention. Not to mention, there are plenty of professional

1933
01:32:52,320 --> 01:32:55,240
Speaker 1: black men and women who will also be pulling the

1934
01:32:55,320 --> 01:32:58,559
Speaker 1: lever for it. I mean, it's just a Barack Obama's

1935
01:32:58,640 --> 01:33:00,640
Speaker 1: lecturing a black man got nothing on this guy, and

1936
01:33:01,040 --> 01:33:04,559
Speaker 1: just absolute slander against a vast swath of the country.

1937
01:33:04,640 --> 01:33:06,920
Speaker 2: The funny thing too, is I remember, because I was

1938
01:33:06,960 --> 01:33:09,639
Speaker 2: reading this about Malcolm X, the whole point of this,

1939
01:33:09,800 --> 01:33:14,160
Speaker 2: the whole tirade that he gave was actulutely to speak

1940
01:33:14,240 --> 01:33:17,920
Speaker 2: against civil rights activists at the time, like Martin Luther

1941
01:33:18,000 --> 01:33:21,679
Speaker 2: King Junior, because he described them that way for trying

1942
01:33:21,720 --> 01:33:24,200
Speaker 2: to work within the political system right and to quote

1943
01:33:24,280 --> 01:33:27,760
Speaker 2: please the white master, whereas I mean eventually completely changed

1944
01:33:27,800 --> 01:33:31,040
Speaker 2: his entire ideology. But in the nineteen sixties, whenever, in

1945
01:33:31,120 --> 01:33:33,680
Speaker 2: nineteen sixty three, when he gave this speech and he

1946
01:33:33,720 --> 01:33:35,960
Speaker 2: was still part of the Nation of Islam, it was

1947
01:33:35,960 --> 01:33:39,479
Speaker 2: about black nationalism and an ideology of actually, there's nothing

1948
01:33:39,520 --> 01:33:41,640
Speaker 2: that the white man can do for this, which he

1949
01:33:41,680 --> 01:33:43,559
Speaker 2: then later denounced. So that's why it's part of the

1950
01:33:43,560 --> 01:33:47,080
Speaker 2: other reason why you really shouldn't be using that analogy,

1951
01:33:47,320 --> 01:33:49,800
Speaker 2: and especially looking at well, who was a little bit

1952
01:33:49,840 --> 01:33:52,479
Speaker 2: more successful at the end the long run by working

1953
01:33:52,520 --> 01:33:55,559
Speaker 2: within that and who ended up actually denouncing his own

1954
01:33:55,640 --> 01:33:58,040
Speaker 2: framework that he puts forward. So there you go. That

1955
01:33:58,160 --> 01:34:00,800
Speaker 2: was wild. Second, and I guess on the other side

1956
01:34:00,800 --> 01:34:04,360
Speaker 2: of that was another wild moment where our friend Ryan Gurdusky,

1957
01:34:04,920 --> 01:34:08,200
Speaker 2: who's been on CNN a little bit more, had a

1958
01:34:08,280 --> 01:34:12,120
Speaker 2: moment where he revealed a lot I think about CNN,

1959
01:34:12,520 --> 01:34:16,240
Speaker 2: and he mentioned the Ferguson and the Floyd effect. Now,

1960
01:34:16,600 --> 01:34:18,639
Speaker 2: I guess I have to explain this. I thought any

1961
01:34:18,680 --> 01:34:21,240
Speaker 2: reasonable person who reads the news would know what it is.

1962
01:34:21,720 --> 01:34:27,479
Speaker 2: That is an idea which came about after Ferguson and

1963
01:34:27,560 --> 01:34:30,879
Speaker 2: specifically a lot of the BLM movement from twenty fifteen,

1964
01:34:31,160 --> 01:34:34,120
Speaker 2: where there was a rise in crime as a result

1965
01:34:34,360 --> 01:34:38,679
Speaker 2: of the BLM riots and or demonstrations. The idea being

1966
01:34:38,720 --> 01:34:43,879
Speaker 2: that police were more afraid to pull over people. Basically,

1967
01:34:43,960 --> 01:34:47,200
Speaker 2: police were quiet quitting, which led to an increase in crime.

1968
01:34:47,280 --> 01:34:51,479
Speaker 2: It is not a difficult concept. If you are I'm

1969
01:34:51,479 --> 01:34:55,120
Speaker 2: going to say ten percent familiar with debates about criminal

1970
01:34:55,280 --> 01:34:57,960
Speaker 2: justice and about crime, you're going to know what these

1971
01:34:58,000 --> 01:35:01,479
Speaker 2: two things is. Two things are Watch what happens when

1972
01:35:01,479 --> 01:35:04,719
Speaker 2: he uses this term on CNN, specifically with some people

1973
01:35:04,720 --> 01:35:07,559
Speaker 2: who are still called black activists, and they've never even

1974
01:35:07,600 --> 01:35:08,960
Speaker 2: heard of it before. Let's take a.

1975
01:35:08,920 --> 01:35:12,559
Speaker 16: Listen yesterday Ryan about how, in the context of riots

1976
01:35:12,560 --> 01:35:15,320
Speaker 16: he was saying, let's just bring the military into it

1977
01:35:15,360 --> 01:35:17,080
Speaker 16: to deal with American citizens.

1978
01:35:17,080 --> 01:35:18,960
Speaker 4: I mean that happened yesterday.

1979
01:35:18,560 --> 01:35:21,280
Speaker 17: Right, But there are the post George Floyd riots resulted

1980
01:35:21,320 --> 01:35:23,880
Speaker 17: in excess of over fifteen thousand black male deaths in

1981
01:35:23,920 --> 01:35:24,519
Speaker 17: this country.

1982
01:35:25,840 --> 01:35:28,120
Speaker 4: How the surge of violent crime.

1983
01:35:28,160 --> 01:35:31,640
Speaker 17: It was like Ferguson, the ferus effect, the Florida fact.

1984
01:35:31,760 --> 01:35:36,040
Speaker 10: You can explain to me how George Floyd's death any causation. Yes,

1985
01:35:36,120 --> 01:35:36,840
Speaker 10: it really is.

1986
01:35:36,880 --> 01:35:39,200
Speaker 17: What happens is after the Ferguson riot and after the

1987
01:35:39,200 --> 01:35:43,120
Speaker 17: Floyd riot, policemen, in fear of their jobs many times

1988
01:35:43,120 --> 01:35:47,120
Speaker 17: and political coverage pull back from their jobs, resulting in

1989
01:35:47,160 --> 01:35:48,120
Speaker 17: an increasing.

1990
01:35:48,120 --> 01:35:50,280
Speaker 2: Listen, I got to stop there at the country. Hold

1991
01:35:50,479 --> 01:35:51,760
Speaker 2: you can look at the was We.

1992
01:35:51,720 --> 01:35:53,760
Speaker 16: Got to stop you there because you're literally making a

1993
01:35:53,760 --> 01:35:55,960
Speaker 16: connection out of your own conjecture.

1994
01:35:56,120 --> 01:35:57,040
Speaker 2: Cannot, it's a real thing.

1995
01:35:57,080 --> 01:35:58,800
Speaker 17: Look up, look up the Ferguson effect, look up the

1996
01:35:58,840 --> 01:35:59,360
Speaker 17: Floyd effect.

1997
01:35:59,400 --> 01:36:00,000
Speaker 4: It is a real term.

1998
01:36:00,080 --> 01:36:00,760
Speaker 6: You cannot, you can.

1999
01:36:00,840 --> 01:36:05,120
Speaker 16: It's a I didn't just invent a connection between two

2000
01:36:05,160 --> 01:36:07,880
Speaker 16: things just because you want that to be there.

2001
01:36:07,920 --> 01:36:10,160
Speaker 1: It's I mean little, it's a real thing.

2002
01:36:16,120 --> 01:36:24,280
Speaker 16: Because reading this, we're talking about things that happened when

2003
01:36:24,320 --> 01:36:25,919
Speaker 16: Donald Trump was president.

2004
01:36:26,840 --> 01:36:27,639
Speaker 2: He was the president.

2005
01:36:27,720 --> 01:36:29,719
Speaker 17: So how is he not responsible for Well, the presidents

2006
01:36:29,760 --> 01:36:31,360
Speaker 17: controlled local police deport.

2007
01:36:31,320 --> 01:36:34,880
Speaker 16: Okay, but you're trying to blame crime on Joe Biden

2008
01:36:35,320 --> 01:36:39,880
Speaker 16: and you don't blame Republicans have blamed crime on Joe Biden,

2009
01:36:40,360 --> 01:36:43,360
Speaker 16: but you cannot. But you're saying that that people who

2010
01:36:43,400 --> 01:36:45,519
Speaker 16: died when Donald Trump was president, that's not his fault.

2011
01:36:45,520 --> 01:36:45,840
Speaker 4: I don't.

2012
01:36:46,280 --> 01:36:50,599
Speaker 16: I don't agree with either blame being assigned to either president.

2013
01:36:50,600 --> 01:36:51,679
Speaker 4: I think presidents blame.

2014
01:36:51,760 --> 01:36:53,240
Speaker 16: You don't have a magic want.

2015
01:36:53,439 --> 01:36:55,400
Speaker 2: Okay, I think that is so what you tell me

2016
01:36:55,439 --> 01:36:57,200
Speaker 2: what you think? I I just can't get over it.

2017
01:36:57,200 --> 01:36:58,840
Speaker 2: It's like, do you not read the news? But car

2018
01:36:58,840 --> 01:37:01,280
Speaker 2: E Sellers, you don't know what the freaking Floyd or

2019
01:37:01,400 --> 01:37:03,760
Speaker 2: Ferguson effect is. By the way I looked it up,

2020
01:37:03,800 --> 01:37:05,960
Speaker 2: Abby Phillips, that host you don't want to know who

2021
01:37:06,000 --> 01:37:09,080
Speaker 2: covered Ferguson for the Washington Post. Turns out it was

2022
01:37:09,080 --> 01:37:12,160
Speaker 2: Abby Phillips. You don't know what freaking Ferguson effect is

2023
01:37:12,400 --> 01:37:15,240
Speaker 2: her own paper while she worked there under that guy

2024
01:37:15,520 --> 01:37:18,719
Speaker 2: was at Wesley Lowry. They did a million pieces trying

2025
01:37:18,760 --> 01:37:22,879
Speaker 2: to disprove the Ferguson effects. So look, whether you agree

2026
01:37:23,040 --> 01:37:26,080
Speaker 2: or not, how can you possibly not know what it is?

2027
01:37:26,320 --> 01:37:27,719
Speaker 2: I just don't get it. And then she kept cutting

2028
01:37:27,720 --> 01:37:29,880
Speaker 2: them off the whole time, saying it was totally invented.

2029
01:37:29,960 --> 01:37:34,280
Speaker 2: This is an FBI addressed terminology. Just ludicrous. So you

2030
01:37:34,320 --> 01:37:36,040
Speaker 2: give me a reaction, I can't get over it.

2031
01:37:36,280 --> 01:37:39,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I think it's a very clear evidence

2032
01:37:39,960 --> 01:37:43,120
Speaker 1: of what bubbles these okay people live in, you know,

2033
01:37:43,280 --> 01:37:46,559
Speaker 1: because like as someone on the left, like I'm very

2034
01:37:46,560 --> 01:37:49,280
Speaker 1: familiar with this, I personally think it's sort of outrageous

2035
01:37:49,280 --> 01:37:51,599
Speaker 1: for cops like quite quit after because they faced grew

2036
01:37:51,720 --> 01:37:56,040
Speaker 1: me for you know, killing unarmed black citizens. But I'm

2037
01:37:56,040 --> 01:37:58,599
Speaker 1: definitely familiar with the term to be able to argue

2038
01:37:58,640 --> 01:38:00,840
Speaker 1: about it and talk about it. And so the fact

2039
01:38:00,840 --> 01:38:02,400
Speaker 1: that yeah, they all seemed like what are you even

2040
01:38:02,439 --> 01:38:02,920
Speaker 1: talking about?

2041
01:38:03,040 --> 01:38:04,800
Speaker 2: Was it was kind of wild, that's what But car

2042
01:38:04,960 --> 01:38:07,080
Speaker 2: and Macary was like, you made that up? I looked

2043
01:38:07,120 --> 01:38:09,439
Speaker 2: at it. It was reaction on Twitter too, because a

2044
01:38:09,439 --> 01:38:12,040
Speaker 2: lot of conservatives were looking at this, and I mean

2045
01:38:12,240 --> 01:38:14,680
Speaker 2: the reason why I'm not sure it's a bubble thing

2046
01:38:14,720 --> 01:38:17,240
Speaker 2: and I'm actually like, are you just stupid? Is for

2047
01:38:17,360 --> 01:38:20,439
Speaker 2: you to have a conviction you should I would hope,

2048
01:38:20,800 --> 01:38:22,320
Speaker 2: like do a little bit of reading about Like you

2049
01:38:22,360 --> 01:38:26,040
Speaker 2: just said, I have met a cab BLM people. They'll

2050
01:38:26,080 --> 01:38:27,960
Speaker 2: tell you all about how whether FERG is in effect

2051
01:38:28,000 --> 01:38:30,760
Speaker 2: and how it's bullshit, or about the Floyd effect well

2052
01:38:30,840 --> 01:38:31,519
Speaker 2: and why that's wrong.

2053
01:38:31,560 --> 01:38:32,639
Speaker 1: I don't think it's don't.

2054
01:38:32,520 --> 01:38:34,200
Speaker 2: Read about it, you don't investigate.

2055
01:38:34,760 --> 01:38:36,800
Speaker 1: Maybe listen, I don't. I'm not going to like a

2056
01:38:36,880 --> 01:38:39,120
Speaker 1: fine on their IQ levels, but I can say I

2057
01:38:39,120 --> 01:38:41,679
Speaker 1: think it demonstrates a lack of seriousness about their concern

2058
01:38:41,720 --> 01:38:42,200
Speaker 1: for the problem.

2059
01:38:42,320 --> 01:38:43,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I'm talking.

2060
01:38:43,360 --> 01:38:45,639
Speaker 1: That's that I think is fair to say. And yeah,

2061
01:38:45,880 --> 01:38:49,519
Speaker 1: and it is partly a bubble problem because they're never

2062
01:38:49,880 --> 01:38:53,360
Speaker 1: in whatever their social media news consumption habits were, they

2063
01:38:53,360 --> 01:38:55,479
Speaker 1: were never confronted with this never term and have to

2064
01:38:55,479 --> 01:38:57,040
Speaker 1: deal with it and think about what it means and

2065
01:38:57,080 --> 01:38:59,320
Speaker 1: whether you know, whether the conservatives have a point about it,

2066
01:38:59,439 --> 01:39:01,120
Speaker 1: or what the push back on the left is or

2067
01:39:01,160 --> 01:39:04,800
Speaker 1: any of that. So to me, it displays not so

2068
01:39:04,920 --> 01:39:09,360
Speaker 1: much lack of intelligence, but lack of seriousness about the issue.

2069
01:39:09,640 --> 01:39:13,200
Speaker 1: And you know, a sort of like surface level relationship

2070
01:39:13,479 --> 01:39:16,040
Speaker 1: to the you know, the protests that they cover.

2071
01:39:16,160 --> 01:39:17,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, Ryan and I were talking about it yesterday and

2072
01:39:17,880 --> 01:39:19,760
Speaker 2: I'm like, you know, you know, we have both of

2073
01:39:19,840 --> 01:39:21,880
Speaker 2: us combined. How many hours a day do we just

2074
01:39:21,880 --> 01:39:25,519
Speaker 2: spend reading the news like and everything? I mean every

2075
01:39:25,800 --> 01:39:28,400
Speaker 2: you know things, even I strongly believe I read so

2076
01:39:28,520 --> 01:39:31,160
Speaker 2: many countercases, either to be familiar or to try and

2077
01:39:31,200 --> 01:39:33,360
Speaker 2: change my own mind. Who the hell knows, And I

2078
01:39:33,439 --> 01:39:35,880
Speaker 2: still obviously have biased problem. I know you do the

2079
01:39:35,880 --> 01:39:38,120
Speaker 2: same thing just to prepare for every single day of

2080
01:39:38,120 --> 01:39:40,040
Speaker 2: being here. So to watch that, I was just like,

2081
01:39:40,120 --> 01:39:41,960
Speaker 2: oh my god, that one of thing do you even

2082
01:39:42,000 --> 01:39:45,000
Speaker 2: prepare for when you go on your like to talk

2083
01:39:45,040 --> 01:39:49,320
Speaker 2: with confidence on cable television. My rule was always I thought,

2084
01:39:49,520 --> 01:39:52,320
Speaker 2: you need about thirty minutes of reading too for every

2085
01:39:52,400 --> 01:39:54,720
Speaker 2: like one minute of speaking, And like what I meant

2086
01:39:54,760 --> 01:39:58,240
Speaker 2: by that is to distill an idea into a concise

2087
01:39:58,680 --> 01:40:01,240
Speaker 2: and thing to be able to address an argument. It

2088
01:40:01,280 --> 01:40:03,599
Speaker 2: takes time. You need to be familiar with the things

2089
01:40:03,600 --> 01:40:05,840
Speaker 2: that are going on with the news, with all the facts,

2090
01:40:05,840 --> 01:40:08,000
Speaker 2: and then you can try and break down into a

2091
01:40:08,040 --> 01:40:09,960
Speaker 2: single thing. And even then, you know, here on our

2092
01:40:10,000 --> 01:40:12,200
Speaker 2: show we talk for almost two hours, they're talking for

2093
01:40:12,200 --> 01:40:14,400
Speaker 2: forty five yeah minute with each other, So maybe that's

2094
01:40:14,439 --> 01:40:14,800
Speaker 2: part of it.

2095
01:40:14,840 --> 01:40:16,400
Speaker 1: That's what I was gonna I think that is part

2096
01:40:16,439 --> 01:40:19,200
Speaker 1: of it because anytime i've you know, I don't often

2097
01:40:20,320 --> 01:40:22,200
Speaker 1: I mean, they don't invite me on these shows any more,

2098
01:40:22,360 --> 01:40:24,639
Speaker 1: number one, But even when I engage in anything that's

2099
01:40:24,680 --> 01:40:27,760
Speaker 1: like even remotely like this format, it's a reminder to

2100
01:40:27,800 --> 01:40:32,200
Speaker 1: me of yeah, there's like six or eight minute segments. Yeah,

2101
01:40:32,240 --> 01:40:34,960
Speaker 1: you don't have to know a lot because if you

2102
01:40:35,080 --> 01:40:38,679
Speaker 1: just fill abuster through one answer or you know, stick

2103
01:40:38,720 --> 01:40:43,400
Speaker 1: your talking points, then that's it. So you can get

2104
01:40:43,439 --> 01:40:47,400
Speaker 1: away with having a pretty surface level understanding. And also

2105
01:40:47,600 --> 01:40:50,120
Speaker 1: because you aren't oftentimes faced with people who have a

2106
01:40:50,120 --> 01:40:52,479
Speaker 1: different perspective or have facts or you know, it's to

2107
01:40:52,520 --> 01:40:54,760
Speaker 1: taste or whatever that's like uncomfortable for you've never had

2108
01:40:54,760 --> 01:40:57,280
Speaker 1: to grapple with that really, or don't have to grapple

2109
01:40:57,280 --> 01:40:59,120
Speaker 1: with it very often outside of the realm of just

2110
01:40:59,120 --> 01:41:01,840
Speaker 1: like is Trump good or Trump bad? Then you know

2111
01:41:01,840 --> 01:41:03,400
Speaker 1: it can lead to some major.

2112
01:41:04,439 --> 01:41:08,840
Speaker 2: US Yeah, definitely that. Okay, guys, thank you guys so

2113
01:41:08,880 --> 01:41:11,320
Speaker 2: much for watching. We really appreciate you. If there's any

2114
01:41:11,320 --> 01:41:14,000
Speaker 2: breaking news, obviously we'll see you over the weekend. Otherwise

2115
01:41:14,000 --> 01:41:15,640
Speaker 2: we're going to see you all on Monday. Thanks so

2116
01:41:15,680 --> 01:41:16,880
Speaker 2: much for our premium subscribers,