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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: This is your weekly Washington Policy Pulse on the Balance

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Speaker 2: of Power Podcasts. I'm Joe Matthew. Every Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence,

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Speaker 2: senior policy analyst and friend of the show, Nathan Dean

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Speaker 2: shares his weekly call on upcoming catalysts in the nation's capital.

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Speaker 2: Listen for the most recent and relevant policy research from

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Speaker 2: our team at Bloomberg Intelligence. Now with today's installment, here's

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Speaker 2: Nathan Dean.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Washington Policy Pulse. My name is Nathan Dean.

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Speaker 3: I'm a senior policy analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, and welcome

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Speaker 3: to all of you who are coming to us via

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Speaker 3: the Balance of Power podcast. We always appreciate you listening.

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Speaker 3: We're recording this on October thirteenth, and so we do

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Speaker 3: have fairly amount to talk about a lot of talk

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Speaker 3: about in terms of the government shutdown. Recently, over the weekend,

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Speaker 3: we saw President Trump say and vow that he was

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Speaker 3: going to pay military members on October fifteenth. As we recall,

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Speaker 3: October tenth is Friday, was the first paycheck that government

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Speaker 3: workers were going to miss, and we'd always said that,

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Speaker 3: you know, we think about the shutdown now that we're

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Speaker 3: in the shutdown in terms of pressure points, and the

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Speaker 3: next major pressure point was going to be October fifteenth. Now,

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Speaker 3: if President Trump goes ahead and pays the military, that

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Speaker 3: removes a pressure point, and honestly, it removes Congress from

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Speaker 3: the situation and actually doesn't give Congress much of the

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Speaker 3: way of an incentive to come together and negotiate. Also,

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Speaker 3: over the weekend, we saw some polling data and it

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Speaker 3: really essentially is just the status quo. If you're a Democrat,

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Speaker 3: you're feeling pretty good about your situation right now. Senator

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Speaker 3: Chuck Schumer even said every day this gets better for us.

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Speaker 3: I don't think he meant to say it that much,

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Speaker 3: just in terms of how the Republicans used it against him.

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Speaker 3: But you know, if you're a Democrat and you're looking

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Speaker 3: at the polling data that suggests that about two thirds

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Speaker 3: of the independents out there blaming the Republicans for this,

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Speaker 3: you're thinking you're in a pretty good situation. If you're

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Speaker 3: a Republican, you're looking at the polling data and it

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Speaker 3: suggests that about eighty five to ninety percent of your.

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Speaker 1: Base is still with you.

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Speaker 3: You're looking at the polling data and You're still in

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Speaker 3: a good situation. Nothing has really changed, and as a result,

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Speaker 3: this shutdown may last for a while. There's been some

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Speaker 3: little thoughts that this could go all the way into November.

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Speaker 3: In fact, according to polymarket and some of the other

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Speaker 3: prediction markets. You know, this was originally going to be

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Speaker 3: around eleven days. Then it turned eighteen days, and now

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Speaker 3: there's a lot of quite a bit of folks that

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Speaker 3: think this may go thirty five days or longer, which

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Speaker 3: would be the longest shutdown in US history.

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Speaker 1: So again, keep that in mind. There's no real pressure

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Speaker 1: point here right now. For this week.

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Speaker 3: President Trump is in Israel, in Egypt. He's returning tonight,

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Speaker 3: should be landing around just after midnight Eastern time. But

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Speaker 3: you know, the House Republicans are still not here. The

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Speaker 3: Senate isn't really seeing much negotiations going on, and I'm

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Speaker 3: not really thinking that we're going to see much happening

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Speaker 3: within the next two to three days, especially if those

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Speaker 3: trips are paid. We also saw about four thousand government

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Speaker 3: workers over the weekend or starting on Friday afternoon receive

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Speaker 3: reduction in force notices. That really doesn't change the calculation either.

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Speaker 3: If the Democrats, you know, from the democratic perspective, they

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Speaker 3: look at this and they say, you know what, this

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Speaker 3: just proves our point why we shouldn't negotiate. So I

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Speaker 3: do think that if there is going to be a solution,

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Speaker 3: it's going to come from a bipartisan group of senators.

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Speaker 3: They will actually create this solution on their own. They

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Speaker 3: will then present it to management or sorry, to leadership.

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Speaker 3: I was looking at some running calls. That's why I

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Speaker 3: said management, they'll present it to leadership, and then ultimately

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Speaker 3: that's where the deal will come from. But I'm not

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Speaker 3: seeing where the next pressure point is anytime soon. If

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Speaker 3: there is one, it's going to be towards the end

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Speaker 3: of the month when SNAP benefits run out or SNAP benefits,

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Speaker 3: you know, there's some discussion of whether or not they'll

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Speaker 3: actually be there from November. This is the Supplemental Nutritional

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Speaker 3: Assistance program, also known as food stamps. This has been

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Speaker 3: allocated for October. It has not been allocated for November.

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Speaker 3: In fact, the White House and the Executive Branch put

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Speaker 3: out some notices last week that this could be at risk.

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Speaker 3: And so if we get into a situation where later

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Speaker 3: in the month, this government shutdown hasn't been resolved, you

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Speaker 3: could see some headline risk associated to those grocery stores.

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Speaker 3: So again that's I think the major pit pressure point

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Speaker 3: because as of my last count, there is about forty

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Speaker 3: two million Americans that rely upon food stamps for their

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Speaker 3: consumer goods purchases. So we'll just see what happens. Let's

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Speaker 3: talk about tariffs for a little bit. President Trump just

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Speaker 3: last week threatened one hundred percent tariffs or more on

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Speaker 3: China in relation to rare earth minerals. This would go

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Speaker 3: into effect in November. We view this essentially as a

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Speaker 3: let's wait and see what actually happens here. Because after

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Speaker 3: over the weekend, President Trump and the Executive Branch and

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Speaker 3: Treasury specifically made a couple of comments that would be

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Speaker 3: opening the door to China for further negotiations. We had

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Speaker 3: a little quick huddle in terms of how should we

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Speaker 3: respond in terms of Bloomberg intelligence, should we look at

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Speaker 3: this in greater detail, and we essentially just said, you know,

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Speaker 3: let's wait for more information before we get really excited

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Speaker 3: about this. Because, as you've seen many many times in

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Speaker 3: the past, president Trump makes a statement, there's a headline

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Speaker 3: reaction to it, and then subsequently President Trump either in

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Speaker 3: further negotiates or something's pulled back. You know, there was

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Speaker 3: a question that we had from a client on whether

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Speaker 3: or not this would be an ep A tariff or

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Speaker 3: this would be a Section two thirty two tariff. Our

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Speaker 3: general thought at the point is is it because it's

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Speaker 3: rare earth minerals. There was an investigation launched in April

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Speaker 3: on that the most likely this would be considered a

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Speaker 3: Section two thirty two or maybe a Section three oh

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Speaker 3: one tariff. I can't remember at the top of my head,

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Speaker 3: but it's one of the Section tariffs, which means it's

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Speaker 3: an investigation, as opposed to AEPA, which means that it's

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Speaker 3: not going to be deemed by it's not going to

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Speaker 3: come up in this court case that's going on through

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Speaker 3: the courts in terms of challenging i EPA. Another tariff

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Speaker 3: that you should be aware of. This one goes into

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Speaker 3: effect at twelve o one one tomorrow morning. This is

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Speaker 3: on furniture and cabinets. So just real quickly, in terms

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Speaker 3: of softwood lumber, you're looking at a ten percent tariff.

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Speaker 3: In terms of upholstered wooden products, you're looking at a

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Speaker 3: twenty five percent tariff today or sorry, tomorrow and then

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Speaker 3: a thirty percent tariff on January first, and then in

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Speaker 3: terms of kitchen and bath cabinets, which is great because

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Speaker 3: I have to remodel my kitchen next year. You're looking

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Speaker 3: at twenty five percent tariff today up to a fifty

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Speaker 3: percent tariff on January first, So again keep those minds.

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Speaker 3: Most likely our colleague Drew Writing is looking at this.

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Speaker 3: We have a couple of other analysts who are looking

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Speaker 3: at it. So if you have any specific questions in

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Speaker 3: that space, just let me know. I'll put you in

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Speaker 3: touch with them. A couple of others. Just things that

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Speaker 3: keep in mind. Keep your eyes on this week. Presudent sorry,

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Speaker 3: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant last week said that, you know,

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Speaker 3: he made a comment about deposit insurance.

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Speaker 1: We've talked about this in the past and this call.

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Speaker 3: There is this idea that deposit assurance, which is currently

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Speaker 3: at two hundred and fifty thousand dollars, would be increased

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Speaker 3: for business transaction accounts aka small businesses. Now, there is

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Speaker 3: legislation that's coming forth from Senator Haggerty and Senator also Brookes,

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Speaker 3: so bipartisan Republican then a Democrat that would raise it

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Speaker 3: to twenty million dollars for business transaction accounts. Now, there

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Speaker 3: was some bipartisan agreement or bipartisan warmth to this idea,

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Speaker 3: and a recent Senate Banking Committee hearing a Treasure Secretary

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Speaker 3: Scott Bessant. You know, real joke. I've gotten in trouble

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Speaker 3: before when I'll just say on like media, so it's

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Speaker 3: like Scott Bessant or a Bessant. So that's why I

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Speaker 3: always say Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant. So anyway, that's why

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Speaker 3: the label always comes up first, because I want to

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Speaker 3: make sure that I'm adhering to the proper protocol. So

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Speaker 3: Treasury or Secretary Scott Bessett said that essentially that he

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Speaker 3: wants to see a markup, and he thinks that the

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Speaker 3: Senate Banking Committee is going to have a markup on

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Speaker 3: this bill fairly soon. Obviously you would have to wait

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Speaker 3: until after. I think that a lot of the shutdown

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Speaker 3: politics are at play. But this is something to keep

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Speaker 3: an eye on because who pays the increase in deposit insurance.

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Speaker 3: It's the big banks, JP, Morgan, Bank of America's City Group.

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Speaker 3: So let's just keep that in mind. I'm going to

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Speaker 3: put that back in my pocket, and we're going to

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Speaker 3: keep an eye on that. Also, sticking around in the

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Speaker 3: banking sector, I put out a small note last week

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Speaker 3: looking at the Fifth Third America merger. Essentially, long story

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Speaker 3: short here is that I don't see any reason why

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Speaker 3: the federal regulators would actually oppose this. From an asset perspective,

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Speaker 3: You're looking at two hundred and eighty nine billion dollars

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Speaker 3: in assets, which is well below the g SIP threshold

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Speaker 3: of seven und and fifty billion doesn't even put it

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Speaker 3: close to like P and C or Capital one.

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Speaker 1: So that's not really into an issue.

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Speaker 3: And if there is any specific issue related to deposit

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Speaker 3: bases or branches, I think Fifth Third Keys can easily

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Speaker 3: resolve that just by changing a couple of things.

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Speaker 1: Also things to keep an eye on.

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Speaker 3: This is IMF World Bank Week, so you're going to

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Speaker 3: see a lot of speeches from various policymakers and central

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Speaker 3: bankers across the globe. Vice chair Michelle Bowman, for those

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Speaker 3: of us who care about the regulatory space, actually has

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Speaker 3: two speeches this week. One is that the IMF World Bank,

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Speaker 3: I don't think that's going to have a ton of

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Speaker 3: regulations on it. But she's also giving a speech later

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Speaker 3: this week in terms of stress testing. So if you're

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Speaker 3: interested in bank stress testing, and we've been waiting it

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Speaker 3: for a second stress testing proposal is originally supposed to

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Speaker 3: be out by September thirtieth, so we're waiting for this

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Speaker 3: other proposal to come out. So I'm curious to see

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Speaker 3: what she's going to say about that. So I'm going

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Speaker 3: to put that in my calendar to watch. And then

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Speaker 3: this is also DC Fintech Week. This is actually a

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Speaker 3: really great conference in terms of financial technology and crypto.

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Speaker 3: A lot of policymakers are going to be talking about that.

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Speaker 3: I actually have my stay of play on stable coins.

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Speaker 3: What would happen? You know, the implementation of the Genius Act,

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Speaker 3: if you will, that's coming out tomorrow, So if you

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Speaker 3: do want to see a copy of that, please let

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Speaker 3: me know. But look for a little bit of crypto

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Speaker 3: news this week. There are a couple of folks saying

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Speaker 3: that Mike Selig is going to be nominated for the

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Speaker 3: next Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair. Mike is a senior

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Speaker 3: advisor over at the SEC. At the moment, he knows crypto.

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Speaker 3: He knows, he knows crypto. He knows how the CFTC

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Speaker 3: and the SEC work, So I think he actually would

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Speaker 3: be a very effective pick for the crypto secretor.

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Speaker 1: So again keep that in mind. And then the last

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Speaker 1: thing I want to talk about is this idea of

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Speaker 1: farmer aid. Now. Last week we're anticipating that Treasury Treasury.

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Speaker 3: Secretaries got best and again with the title, was going

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Speaker 3: to release somewhere between ten to thirteen billion dollars in

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Speaker 3: aid for farmers.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 3: I had a conversation on Friday with our AG analyst,

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Speaker 3: Alexis Maxwell.

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Speaker 1: And this is one of the things we've been doing.

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Speaker 3: Is every Friday, I put out a conversation with an

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Speaker 3: analyst that I think is writing about Washington. It's writing

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Speaker 3: about something that's fun about Washington and important, and I

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Speaker 3: put it on the terminal. Now it's only on the

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Speaker 3: terminal for now, But in this past Friday, I took

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Speaker 3: Alexis through this scenario of, Okay, what happens if we

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Speaker 3: get ten to thirteen billion dollars in terms of farmer aid.

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Speaker 1: Publicans have said we can even go up to.

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Speaker 3: Fifty billion, but if we get ten to thirteen billion,

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Speaker 3: essentially what happens? And she said, look, it's mostly going

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Speaker 3: to be buying things like fertilizer. Not any capital spend,

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Speaker 3: but more of just products and goods that will assist

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Speaker 3: with the harvest. So most of that money will be

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Speaker 3: spent in the fourth quarter, and then by this time

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Speaker 3: next year we'll be in a situation where probably nothing

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Speaker 3: has really changed. So if you want, if you're in

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Speaker 3: the IX space, just please let me know. I'll give

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Speaker 3: you a copy of that presentation to you. So with that,

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Speaker 3: I'm going to say thank you very much for your time.

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Speaker 3: We really appreciate you joining us as always, have a

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Speaker 3: wonderful week, and we'll talk soon.

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Speaker 2: Our thanks to Nathan Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior policy analyst,

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Speaker 2: bringing you the latest installment of his weekly Washington Policy Pulse.

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Speaker 2: For more from BI or to join this call live

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Speaker 2: each week, you can email Nathan at ndan at Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: dot net. That's nd Ea n at Bloomberg dot net.

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Speaker 2: Come back to the podcast later today for the latest

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Speaker 2: edition of Balance of Power.