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Speaker 1: Welcome to the State of the Lakers, presented by DASH Radio.

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Speaker 1: Thank you guys for coming to hang out on a Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: I'm actually recording this on a Monday. I'm getting ready

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Speaker 1: to go on a ski trip on Tuesday that's going

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Speaker 1: to take me up to Colorado for four days, and

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Speaker 1: we only have one Laker game this week, so I

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Speaker 1: wanted to get some content out there today and tomorrow

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Speaker 1: I'm going to be working on my top five contenders

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Speaker 1: in the league. These are to be clear, these are

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Speaker 1: gonna be the five teams that I see that I

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Speaker 1: think are most likely to win the championship, not the

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Speaker 1: teams that have played the best basketball to this point,

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Speaker 1: although that will be factored in. It will be a

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Speaker 1: combination of a bunch of factors that lead to the

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Speaker 1: ultimate question, which five teams are most likely to win

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Speaker 1: the championship this year? So we're gonna do that. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna do the numbers five, four, and three in today's pod,

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Speaker 1: and then there will be another pod that releases on

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Speaker 1: Wednesday morning that will cover the number two and number

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Speaker 1: one teams on my list that are most likely to

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Speaker 1: win the championship. But I did want to start by

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Speaker 1: talking about Russell Westbrook for a second. But I talked

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Speaker 1: about this a little bit last night with Raj in

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Speaker 1: the postgame show after we got destroyed by Memphis. But

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Speaker 1: I wanted to talk a little bit about this Russell

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Speaker 1: Westbrook question because it's it's the biggest cloud hanging over

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Speaker 1: the season in my opinion. Not to be clear, and

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Speaker 1: this is an important context here, Russ is not to

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Speaker 1: blame for the Lakers being where they're at in the standings.

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Speaker 1: To be clear, As an individual player, I do think

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Speaker 1: you could blame the trade to some extent because of

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Speaker 1: the types of players that went out in the trade,

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Speaker 1: the financial the resulting financial crunch that led to Alex

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Speaker 1: Crusoe being left out of the equation, right, because we

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Speaker 1: know what k c P and Kyle Kuzma and Alex

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Speaker 1: Caruso do as basketball players next to Lebron and Anthony Davis.

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Speaker 1: We know how successful that formula is, so the trade.

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Speaker 1: Weighing the trade is different than weighing the player on

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Speaker 1: this team. Russ is not to blame for the team

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Speaker 1: being where they're at. That needs to be clearly stated

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Speaker 1: up front. Russ also hasn't been nearly as good as

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Speaker 1: he needs to be in order for that trade to

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Speaker 1: have made any sense. And the latest evidence has been

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Speaker 1: his struggles against good teams in the NBA, and I

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Speaker 1: talked about this last night. He was really bad from

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Speaker 1: start to finish on both ends. Last night against Memphis

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Speaker 1: and then the previous game against Memphis, he had a

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Speaker 1: critically badged uh stretch of basketball at the end of

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Speaker 1: the third quarter that costs him the game. Then the

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Speaker 1: last good team we played before that, Brooklyn, he was

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Speaker 1: horrible from start to finish, horrifically bad around the basket,

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Speaker 1: and I think it what was he two for fifteen

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Speaker 1: in the paint in that game, and he missed a

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Speaker 1: crucial defensive responsibility on Patty Mills that cost the team

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Speaker 1: the game. And then he missed a dunk on the

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Speaker 1: other end of poor a poor decision where he wasn't

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Speaker 1: even close to being high enough above the rim and

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Speaker 1: it cost the team the game. And then as we

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Speaker 1: work further back, he was really bad all game against Phoenix,

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Speaker 1: and especially in the non Lebron minutes in a game

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Speaker 1: where with Lebron on the court, we were tied with

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Speaker 1: Phoenix and we lost by eight team because of how

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Speaker 1: bad we played in the non Lebron minutes and then

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Speaker 1: going back to another game against Memphis where he was

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Speaker 1: really bad, scored in single digits and had six turnovers.

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Speaker 1: That is a issue on the team. It's not the

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Speaker 1: main issue. Our main issue has been talent. At the

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Speaker 1: beginning of the year, when we had guys healthy, we

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Speaker 1: weren't playing hard enough, and then now since Anthony Davis

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Speaker 1: has gone out, it's a talent issue. So I don't

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Speaker 1: want to blame Russ for where they're at in the standings. However,

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Speaker 1: in order for that trade to have made any sense,

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Speaker 1: Russ needed to be better against the good teams in

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Speaker 1: the league. That's what you do when you trade depth

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Speaker 1: and role players for a star. Allegedly, you're banking on

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Speaker 1: their ultimate talent will be able to carry you against

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Speaker 1: the best teams in the league. And the reality of

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Speaker 1: the Russell Westbrook situation is he's a limited basketball player.

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Speaker 1: Right He's easy to guard for the most part. His

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Speaker 1: only positive plays this season have mainly been reckless, the

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Speaker 1: idea of forcing action to the paint when there's really

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Speaker 1: not anything there and him just squeezing in tiny gaps

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Speaker 1: and hurling the ball out to spots on the floor

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Speaker 1: and hoping for the best, which has worked for stretches

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Speaker 1: against bad teams, but against the good teams in this

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Speaker 1: league for the for the most part, it's been ineffective

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Speaker 1: or downright hurtful to the team. That's a concern because,

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Speaker 1: like I said, when you make the the trade of

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Speaker 1: multiple role players and salary filler for a star, you're

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Speaker 1: banking on that trade helping you against the good teams

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Speaker 1: in the league. And if it doesn't, then you run

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Speaker 1: into this situation where all of a sudden, you know,

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Speaker 1: Anthony Davis goes down, and that third star that's supposed

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Speaker 1: to be the guy that can help you in this

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Speaker 1: situation actually is largely ineffective. And so again, Russ is

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Speaker 1: not the problem. He's not the problem, but he is

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Speaker 1: a problem, and he's a problem that could have been avoided.

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Speaker 1: And the only reason I say it could have been

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Speaker 1: avoided is because anybody who's watched Russell Westbrook over the

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Speaker 1: last couple of years has known that this is the

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Speaker 1: phase of the career that he's of his career that

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Speaker 1: he's in. When he was younger and freakishly athletic, the

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Speaker 1: chaos and the reckless decision making was all still there.

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Speaker 1: He just was such a nuclear athlete that he brought

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Speaker 1: a huge positive element to the game. Teams could not

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Speaker 1: keep the guy out of the paint, and when he

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Speaker 1: got there, he finished all the time. Whereas now he's

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Speaker 1: getting there a lot, a lot more than most guards

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Speaker 1: in the league. But it's a reckless, forced drive to

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Speaker 1: the basket with a team that's prepared for him to

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Speaker 1: do so, and he's not finishing when he gets there,

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Speaker 1: and that's an issue and that we could all see

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Speaker 1: coming a mile away, and that was the concern. Tomorrow

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Speaker 1: Mornings Pod, before we do number two and one on

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Speaker 1: the list, I'm gonna dive a little bit deeper into

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Speaker 1: this concept having to do with the Lakers and the

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Speaker 1: Warriors both kind of losing sight of what made them good.

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Speaker 1: And we'll talk a little bit about that, like I

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Speaker 1: said tomorrow, before we get into the list. But let's

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Speaker 1: go ahead and get started with our top five contenders

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Speaker 1: this season again, top five teams that I think are

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Speaker 1: most likely to win the championship, and first on my list,

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Speaker 1: I should say fifth on my list is Phoenix. They

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Speaker 1: are currently eighth in offense, second in defense, and third

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Speaker 1: in net rating. Chris Paul is giving you fourteen and

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Speaker 1: ten and only two point three turnovers per game. He's

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Speaker 1: he looks great. Booker's efficiency is down a little bit,

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Speaker 1: but he's twenty four, five and five and he's shooting

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Speaker 1: the ball really well from three. UM. They're both playing

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Speaker 1: really well there. They look every bit as good as

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Speaker 1: they did last year. Uh. They have amazing depth. I

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Speaker 1: would say they have the best depth of talent in

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Speaker 1: the league. Cam Johnson and Michael Bridges are both over

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Speaker 1: from three and averaging about twelve points per game. DeAndre

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Speaker 1: Ayton is giving you seventeen and eleven and on any

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Speaker 1: given night can outplay any of the top big men

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Speaker 1: slash huge athletes that we have in the league. And

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Speaker 1: that's a huge, huge weapon to have on the roster. Um.

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Speaker 1: That is what makes them better than the Utahs in

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Speaker 1: the Chicago's, in the memphisis of the league. They have

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Speaker 1: this elite high end isolation score in Devin Booker, which

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Speaker 1: we know brings a great deal of value in the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: They have this elite high end playmaker in Chris Paul

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Speaker 1: that can take advantage of the very very tiny gaps

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Speaker 1: that materialize in playoff defenses. And they have this depth

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Speaker 1: of wing talent and and athleticism that again we know,

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Speaker 1: brings a ton of value in a playoff setting. They

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Speaker 1: can reach a a defensive ceiling with all of their

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Speaker 1: athletes that only a handful of teams in the league

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Speaker 1: can reach. We're gonna talk about this in my list

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Speaker 1: of the five teams that I have, Brooklyn is really

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Speaker 1: the only team that can't reach this unbelievable defensive ceiling.

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Speaker 1: That's kind of like a wash between all those teams

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Speaker 1: except for Brooklyn, and we'll talk to Brooklyn. We'll talk

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Speaker 1: about Brooklyn when we get there. But there's just a

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Speaker 1: level that Phoenix can get to with their wings in

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Speaker 1: their defense that the Utahs and the Chicago's in the

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Speaker 1: memphisis of the world can't each and that will always

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Speaker 1: be a leg up for them. And then they also

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Speaker 1: have CP three and Devin Booker, t proven playoff weapons

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Speaker 1: that have done well on that level. However, the reason

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Speaker 1: why I have them fifth, the reason why I have

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Speaker 1: them beneath Golden State Milwaukee, and I won't share the

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Speaker 1: other names yet just yet, but the reason why I

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Speaker 1: have them below is in any given playoff series against

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Speaker 1: the top tier teams in the league, they're gonna have

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Speaker 1: probably the third or fourth best players on the floor,

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Speaker 1: but the other team is probably gonna have the first

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Speaker 1: or second best players on the floor. And that's an

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Speaker 1: issue in the playoffs set. It because in the playoffs setting,

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Speaker 1: when defense is really really tightened down and they start

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Speaker 1: switching everything and canceling out all your actions, and the

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Speaker 1: refs are swallowing the whistle, and all that stuff you

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Speaker 1: used to do during the regular season with your regular

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Speaker 1: season machine kind of stops working. In that setting. It

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Speaker 1: becomes about superstars making plays. And what we saw last

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Speaker 1: year in the playoffs is there were stretches where Devin

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Speaker 1: Booker could go on streaks of shot making where he

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Speaker 1: could kind of hang with those top guys for short stretches.

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Speaker 1: But we saw Chris Paul really really struggle in that

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Speaker 1: setting to where he was in a lot of games

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Speaker 1: getting outplayed by Drew Holiday. That's an issue because when

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Speaker 1: you're going against the top teams in the league, you're

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Speaker 1: gonna be going against Steph Curry and Clay Thompson and

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Speaker 1: Draymond Green and Johannas Antenna Coompo and Kevin Durant, Lebron

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Speaker 1: James Anthony Davis. These guys across the way, the teams

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Speaker 1: you're gonna be competing against, have extremely high end, top

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Speaker 1: end talent on their roster, and that will, forever as

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Speaker 1: long as the game of basketball is played, be a

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Speaker 1: monumental impact on a playoff series. And so to me,

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Speaker 1: even though Phoenix has looked so good this year and

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Speaker 1: looked so good in the playoffs last year, if you

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Speaker 1: look really closely, they just had to outex acute a

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Speaker 1: Laker team that lost Anthony Davis. And we know that

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Speaker 1: that team, that particular team, the Lakers, has so much

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Speaker 1: of their talent tied up in Lebron and a D.

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Speaker 1: So when one of them go down, they're pretty bad.

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Speaker 1: And then they go in and they play a Denver

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Speaker 1: team that same situation. They don't have um Jamal Murray,

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Speaker 1: so they're just not capable really from a talent level,

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Speaker 1: of hanging with with Phoenix. And then they go in

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Speaker 1: against the Clippers and they don't have Kawhi Leonard and

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Speaker 1: so the same concept. Even the Clippers, who had utterly

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Speaker 1: maximized modern basketball with that roster, they just didn't have

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Speaker 1: enough talent to hang with hang with Phoenix. And then

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Speaker 1: they run into the finals, and suddenly those warts show

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Speaker 1: against the team that's healthy and has their stars. So

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Speaker 1: as good as Phoenix is, and they're still very likely

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Speaker 1: to win the championship. I'm just saying they're the fifth

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Speaker 1: most likely team to win the championship, but that lack

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Speaker 1: of star power, in my opinion, will always hold them

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Speaker 1: back against the Golden States and the Brooklyn's in the

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Speaker 1: Milwaukee's of the league. That's gonna be a problem for them.

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Speaker 1: That doesn't go away. The fourth team on my list,

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Speaker 1: the fourth most likely team to win the NBA Championship

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Speaker 1: this season in my opinion, is the Milwaukee Bucks. They're

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Speaker 1: currently seventh in offense, ninth in defense, and seventh in

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Speaker 1: net rating. Despite having some pretty bad luck with injuries

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Speaker 1: and COVID, Johannis and Drew still very much look like

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Speaker 1: Johannis and Drew. They look fantastic. Y honest is starting

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Speaker 1: to show a little bit more shot making, although I

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Speaker 1: don't think that's as important as some of the other

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Speaker 1: things in his game. We'll talk about that in a minute.

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Speaker 1: Um Chris Middleton's having a down year, but he's been

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Speaker 1: in and out of the lineup, so I wouldn't worry

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Speaker 1: about that too much. Pat Conatton is playing great, Bobby

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Speaker 1: Porters is playing great. West Matthews has turned out to

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Speaker 1: be a great fit to the to the to the

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Speaker 1: horrible news for Laker fans, as as we all wanted

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Speaker 1: him to come back, especially me. I I advocated for West.

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure why they decided not to bring him back,

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Speaker 1: but he's fitting in great with Milwaukee. They are more

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Speaker 1: or less the same team that they were last year

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Speaker 1: in in a lot of ways, and I am a

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Speaker 1: huge believer in what they do. So then you might

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Speaker 1: ask why do I have them forth? And it really

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Speaker 1: isn't any more complicated than does Janice have the ability

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Speaker 1: to out execute the absolute top tier talent in a

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Speaker 1: playoff setting four times out of seven? Because you know,

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Speaker 1: they have the defensive ceiling. Like I said, they're going

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Speaker 1: to be able to defend just as well as a

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Speaker 1: Phoenix or a Golden State or or any of those

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Speaker 1: teams that have all the athletic talent that they have.

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Speaker 1: You know, Janice obviously brings a ton to the table defensively.

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Speaker 1: I'm not worried about that at all. But on the

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Speaker 1: offensive end, when things really slow down and you're stuck

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Speaker 1: in the half court. What can Yannice brain compared to

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Speaker 1: the top tier team of players in the league. I

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Speaker 1: know he can out execute Chris Paul and Devin Booker.

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Speaker 1: I've seen that he can out execute those guys. I

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Speaker 1: know he can just barely out execute Brooklyn. If James

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Speaker 1: Harden is on a bad hamstring and Kyrie Irving can't

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Speaker 1: play and Joe Harris forgets how to shoot, I know

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Speaker 1: he can do that. But the last two times they

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Speaker 1: played the Lakers, when Lebron and a D were healthy,

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Speaker 1: they went down to Staples Center and got beat handily,

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Speaker 1: and Lebron was way better than him. And then they

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Speaker 1: went on the road to Milwaukee, and the last season

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Speaker 1: before the Lebron in a D injuries and they beat

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Speaker 1: him in Milwaukee, and Lebron and a D looked great.

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Speaker 1: Because it's different when you're playing the top tier teams,

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Speaker 1: when they have their stars healthy and they're engaged on

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Speaker 1: the defensive end. In that type of setting, it's a

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Speaker 1: different level of basketball. I know j honest can out

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Speaker 1: execute the Hawks. I know he can out execute that

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Speaker 1: injury ravaged Brooklyn team and that Phoenix team where he's

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Speaker 1: just having to do better than Chris Paul, who's really struggling,

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Speaker 1: Withdrew Holiday, and with Devin Booker, who can get on

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Speaker 1: some hot streaks. But there's another level to this, and

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Speaker 1: that will be the level to me that if Janice

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Speaker 1: can cross that, then he's the best player in the league.

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Speaker 1: I'm not beholden to holding him down if he accomplishes

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Speaker 1: that goal. I'm all in on the honest train. But

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Speaker 1: to me, that next level for him is staring down

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Speaker 1: the great teams at full strength, with the greatest players

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Speaker 1: in the game, and beating them. And that's the next step.

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Speaker 1: I thought Kevin Durant was clearly better than Janice in

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Speaker 1: that Eastern Conference semi final series last year, and at

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Speaker 1: the end of those games, you're watching those games and

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Speaker 1: you're like, man, Milwaukee has a lot more talent because

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Speaker 1: of all the injuries that Brooklyn was dealing with and

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Speaker 1: because of Joe Harris's struggles, But the game's just kind

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Speaker 1: of lingered around and stayed close, and all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: you're like, man, that's Kevin freaking Durant and he's making

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Speaker 1: all these shots and he's extending the series. And now

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden, you're couple inches away from potentially losing.

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Speaker 1: That's that next level. That's what Janice had to prove

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Speaker 1: to me in order for me to think that he's

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Speaker 1: better than Kevin Durant, better than Lebron James, better than

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Speaker 1: Stephan Curry. But so I have them as the fourth

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Speaker 1: most likely team to win the title because I do

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Speaker 1: think that's a possible outcome. I just would put my

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Speaker 1: money on the other three teams that I'm about to

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Speaker 1: mention because of the fact that they have top tier

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Speaker 1: talent that has proven they can out execute the best

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Speaker 1: teams and the best players in the league in a

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Speaker 1: seven game setting. That to me, is that next step

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Speaker 1: free honest, I hope he takes it. I'm rooting for him.

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Speaker 1: I just don't necessarily think he's there yet, so I've

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Speaker 1: Milwaukee it for I think the Los Angeles Lakers are

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Speaker 1: the third most likely team to win the championship this year.

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Speaker 1: And I know that sounds crazy, and I know that's

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Speaker 1: completely not based on anything that has actually happened on

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Speaker 1: the court this season. They've been twenty three in offense

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Speaker 1: this year and defense twenty and net rating. Even if

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Speaker 1: you do throw out DeAndre Jordan's minutes and throw out

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Speaker 1: some of the weird COVID lineups that they've had to use.

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Speaker 1: They have not looked like a top tier team in

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Speaker 1: the league this year. That goes without saying, So why

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Speaker 1: do I have them third? It really isn't all that complicated.

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Speaker 1: We have a proven method for success in the modern NBA,

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Speaker 1: and that is Anthony Davis at center, Lebron James at

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Speaker 1: power forward, both playing at the top of their games,

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Speaker 1: and the fact that teams just can't match up with

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Speaker 1: them when they do that. Like I've mentioned earlier, the

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Speaker 1: last two times they've played the Bucks, they've manhandled the Bucks,

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Speaker 1: including once in Milwaukee. When Lebron James and Anthony Davis

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Speaker 1: are healthy, and we know what they did when they

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Speaker 1: were in the bubble, we know their winning percentage over

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Speaker 1: the last three years when those two guys are healthy.

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Speaker 1: And that's even with last season and this season Anthony

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Speaker 1: Davis being a significantly lesser version of himself than he

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Speaker 1: was in that belief will always be what brings me

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Speaker 1: to consider the Lakers a legitimate championship contender. Lebron looks fantastic.

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Speaker 1: He's playing arguably some of the best two way basketball

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Speaker 1: of his career. He's playing this new modern style as

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Speaker 1: a center, which I think will maintain even when Anthony

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Speaker 1: Davis comes back. I almost look at it as like

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Speaker 1: Lebron at center, Anthony Davis at power forward. These Braun

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Speaker 1: at center lineups are plus two point three per one

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Speaker 1: possessions and four hundred and seven minutes, and that's even

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Speaker 1: including that minus thirty complete ship show last night against Memphis.

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Speaker 1: The truth of the matter is the Lakers have a

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Speaker 1: trade to make th Ht is playing much better. He

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Speaker 1: is valued around the league, and him and Kendrick Nunn

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Speaker 1: will package together and bring a wing back. I feel

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Speaker 1: very confident about that. So when push comes to shove

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Speaker 1: and you're in a playoff setting, you're going to have

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Speaker 1: to play Anthony Davis, Lebron James in a legitimate wing

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Speaker 1: in the front court, and some arsenal of role players

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Speaker 1: coming in and out of that system. We talked a

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Speaker 1: lot about Russ earlier in the pod. If you haven't

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Speaker 1: heard that yet, just go back and listen to the

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Speaker 1: beginning of this pod. But you know, regardless of the

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Speaker 1: Russ fit, that dynamic front court presents a legitimate weapon.

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Speaker 1: And if you had to ask me, what's more likely

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Speaker 1: to happen that the Phoenix Suns, with their lack of

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Speaker 1: top tier star power, will beat Golden State and then

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Speaker 1: go on to beat Kevin Durant or Jana Santana Coompo

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Speaker 1: in the finals. Do you think that's more likely than

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Speaker 1: Lebron and a D figuring it out and getting healthy

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Speaker 1: and getting on the court. In Lebron and a D

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Speaker 1: beating Steph Curry in the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals,

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Speaker 1: in Lebron in a D beating Janice or Kevin Durant

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Speaker 1: the finals, I take my chances with Lebron and a

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Speaker 1: D and that will always be the ultimate trump card.

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Speaker 1: And that's why, even with as much of a ship

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Speaker 1: show as the season has been, I think they are

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Speaker 1: the third most likely team to win the championship this year.

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Speaker 1: There are a couple of little things they have to

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Speaker 1: figure out, you know, Like I tweeted this last night

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Speaker 1: and talked about it on the pod last night. But

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Speaker 1: when Lebron's at center, they can't play all these small guards,

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Speaker 1: you know, Russ, Monk Bradley. Uh, those three guys are

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Speaker 1: all six three and under. They played I think eighteen

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Speaker 1: minutes last night, and they went minus forty six point

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Speaker 1: eight net rating against Memphis. When you're playing these good

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Speaker 1: teams that have all this size, you just can't play

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Speaker 1: all these tiny guards. And I know that's going to

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Speaker 1: be an issue, but that goes away when Anthony Davis

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Speaker 1: comes back. That goes away when you upgrade th HT

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Speaker 1: into a bigger wing. This team is so far from

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Speaker 1: what they are going to be in April or May.

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Speaker 1: And like I, like I said all year, when will

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Speaker 1: I stop believing in the Lakers. I'll stop believing in

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Speaker 1: the Lakers. When Lebron or Anthony Davis can't finish a

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Speaker 1: playoff game, That's when I'll stop believing in the in

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Speaker 1: the Lakers, or if one of them is playing severely

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Speaker 1: hampered by injury. But as long as those two are healthy,

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Speaker 1: I trust Frank Vogel to put something around them to work.

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Speaker 1: In a playoff setting, they are simply more dangerous than

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Speaker 1: a team that can't execute in the half court or

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Speaker 1: a team that lacks that top tier star power. Alright,

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Speaker 1: that is it for Part one of our Contenders Pod

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Speaker 1: Part two, including the second and first most likely teams

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Speaker 1: to win the championship or tomorrow. I'm also going to

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Speaker 1: do a little bit of a deep dive on the

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Speaker 1: Lakers and Warriors and their identity changes. As always, we

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Speaker 1: appreciate your guys support and we will see you tomorrow