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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff give you, guys, the best independent.

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Speaker 3: Coverage that is possible.

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Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

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Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that,

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Speaker 2: let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday.

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Speaker 2: We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do

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Speaker 2: we have, Crystal, indeed we do.

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Speaker 1: We are awaiting tonight the long anticipated Kamala Harris interview.

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Speaker 1: She amazingly hasn't given one since Biden dropped down, which

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Speaker 1: now feels like eighty three years ago. So that's happening

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Speaker 1: alongside her vice presidential picked Tim Walls, so we will

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Speaker 1: preview that. We also have finally, actually a significant amount

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Speaker 1: of polling coming out post DNC, especially some Fox News

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Speaker 1: swing state poles that are very interesting, and also some

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Speaker 1: voter registration data that is worth digging into, so we'll

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Speaker 1: get into that. We're also taking a look at a

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Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal poll of how Americans are feeling about

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Speaker 1: the American dream seems kind of important, so we're going

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Speaker 1: to dig into that. We've got some Trump indictment news,

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Speaker 1: a superseding indictment issued in the election interference case. We're

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Speaker 1: also going to take a look at Trump's economic plan.

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Speaker 1: Since we've been focused a little bit on what Kamala

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Speaker 1: Harris is up to, we'll contrast what Trump's plans are.

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Speaker 4: As best you can decipher.

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Speaker 1: Not that you ever really know what that man is

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Speaker 1: going to do, but we should take him at his

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Speaker 1: word that these are the things that he plans to

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Speaker 1: implement if he is once again elected at president of

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Speaker 1: the United States. We also have some news coming out

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Speaker 1: of Israel. There's kind of sort of maybe a temporary

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Speaker 1: partial ceasefire in order to vaccinate some Palestinians for polio.

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Speaker 1: There is now a polio outbreak in the Gaza Strip.

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Speaker 1: So we'll take a look at that. And I am

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Speaker 1: doing a monologue today on whether or not the Bernie

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Speaker 1: to Trump pipeline is real. This, of course Zaga being

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Speaker 1: relevant in the wake of the RFK Junior and Tulsi

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Speaker 1: Gabbard Trump endorsements.

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Speaker 3: There's something going on there. We could talk about it.

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Speaker 4: I apologize Evan.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the monologue is way too but not when I

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Speaker 1: scratched the surface, there was too much.

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Speaker 4: I want to well, there's.

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Speaker 2: Been a fun split and you know, it's like it's

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Speaker 2: almost like a it's one of the it's almost like

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Speaker 2: a study of religion or something, and to see like

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Speaker 2: the fractionalization of all of it. So anyway, I'm interested

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Speaker 2: and I'm excited to talk about it. Thank you to

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Speaker 2: all of our premusbscribers Breakingpoints dot com if you want

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Speaker 2: to go ahead and sign up and help us out here.

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Speaker 2: But why don't we begin with Kamala the Big Interview.

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Speaker 4: Yes, today tonight at what nine pm?

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Speaker 3: It's tonight. I unfortunate it would be on a plane,

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Speaker 3: but Crystal will have a.

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Speaker 1: Cover Bana Bash also known maybe as bb Bash because

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Speaker 1: of her pro Israel commentary. Anyway, that'll be potentially relevant.

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Speaker 1: Let's go and put the announcement up on the screen.

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Speaker 1: So Kamala Harris and Tim Walls are in a sit

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Speaker 1: with CNN's Dana Bash this evening nine pm Eastern. It

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Speaker 1: says it occurs as the candidates embark on a bus

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Speaker 1: tour through the battleground state of Georgia. Marks the first

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Speaker 1: time Harris I sat with the journalist Born in depth

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Speaker 1: on the record conversation. Since President Joe Biden dropped his

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Speaker 1: bid for second term and endorse her on July twenty one,

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Speaker 1: a lot of pressure on her soccer obviously, to agree

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Speaker 1: to do an interview, which seems like kind of the

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Speaker 1: basics of what you would expect from a get it

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Speaker 1: for president and a democracy so good that this is

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Speaker 1: finally happening. A lot made of the fact that she's

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Speaker 1: going to have Tim Walls alongside of her. You know,

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Speaker 1: one of the risks of waiting so long and doing

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Speaker 1: so few at this point zero interviews is that it makes.

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Speaker 4: Each one so much more sence.

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Speaker 1: Yes, well, if you do a lot of interviews, also,

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Speaker 1: it makes the media happier, so they're more likely to

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Speaker 1: go a little bit easier on you. When you wait

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Speaker 1: so long, you you know, on the one hand, it

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Speaker 1: means you don't have an opportunity to make a mistake.

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Speaker 1: She's timed this very strategically to be before the Labor

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Speaker 1: Day weekend holiday weekend, so if she does stumble, as

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Speaker 1: is possible, and as we've seen in previous interviews, it's

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Speaker 1: very likely, you know, after the long holiday weekend and

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Speaker 1: we'll come back next week on Tuesday, that a lot

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Speaker 1: of that will be forgotten. So it's strategically timed, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: But there's no doubt that she has built a lot

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Speaker 1: of anticipation around this interview simply because of the scarcity

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Speaker 1: of Kamala Harris unscriptures.

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Speaker 2: That's why risk is there, and so that's why there's

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Speaker 2: a criticism that she's doing it with Tim Wallas. It's

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Speaker 2: actually apparently I didn't know this. Apparently it is a

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Speaker 2: tradition that you're supposed to do a sit down interview

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Speaker 2: it's with your running mate. It's just that you usually

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Speaker 2: do it like the day after you name your running mate.

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Speaker 2: You don't usually wait for several weeks or any of that.

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Speaker 2: It's an extraordinary time. I think only sixty eight days

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Speaker 2: as of today until the election, I know, which is

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Speaker 2: nuts whenever you put it that way.

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Speaker 4: Voting starts in some states in like ninety.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, nine days, you have early voting reaches out completely crazy.

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Speaker 2: But okay, let's come back and think about the interview.

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Speaker 2: The real risk here is that one of the major

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Speaker 2: benefits for Trump, I think we can always say, was

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Speaker 2: the spray and prey strategy where he just does He's

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Speaker 2: always in.

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Speaker 3: The public eye at all times.

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Speaker 2: So I remember when I covered him at the White House,

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Speaker 2: he would say something crazy and then we would do

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Speaker 2: an interview, get cleared up, or so we would do

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Speaker 2: something else and everyone would move on within twenty four hours,

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Speaker 2: sometimes even less than that. And that's the thing. The

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Speaker 2: risk is if you do one bad one and then

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Speaker 2: you are you know, entrenched. Where all the evidence we

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Speaker 2: have so far from her campaign, it's very risk averse.

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Speaker 2: So they're looking back at all their past interviews. We're

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Speaker 2: going to show everybody some highlights and some things that

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Speaker 2: they want to do. But given her bad experience now

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Speaker 2: so far, it may actually retrench her and then all

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Speaker 2: we will have as media and others is this single

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Speaker 2: interview where it possibly it doesn't go that well. I

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Speaker 2: also do think there's like a real softball element and

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Speaker 2: you talk to her about Dana Bash, Jana Bash is

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Speaker 2: an incredibly biased figure from her Israel commentary to her

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Speaker 2: like masculinity commentary, which we were going to talk about

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Speaker 2: last time in our show and eventually will at some point.

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Speaker 2: But like this is not you know, some so called

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Speaker 2: straight up news anchor, fine if it's one of a lot,

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Speaker 2: but it's a little different whenever it's somebody who is

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Speaker 2: not on the record praising Tim Walls immediately and I'll

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Speaker 2: gamaff immediately after the speech, and then you turn to

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Speaker 2: the first interview.

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Speaker 3: It's funny.

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Speaker 2: Our friend Glenn Greenwald, before the interview was announced, he's like,

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Speaker 2: I bet she goes to somebody like Dana Bash, you know,

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Speaker 2: and he's as good as he's even more cynical than me,

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Speaker 2: which takes a lot of work. But what he's accurately

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Speaker 2: pointing out is that you go to the safe route,

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Speaker 2: and I think that's one of the reasons that they

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Speaker 2: are doing so.

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Speaker 3: And I you know, I mean, I don't think that's

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Speaker 3: a good thing. I really don't.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think Dana Bash will feel enough pressure

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Speaker 1: just given the high profile nature of the event. She's

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Speaker 1: going to ask some things that are meant to challenge,

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Speaker 1: and you know, in terms of Kamala and how she

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Speaker 1: will perform, I genuinely don't know what to expect because, frankly,

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Speaker 1: after she did that Lesterhold interview that you know on

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Speaker 1: the border that was crashed and burned, she basically didn't

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Speaker 1: do any more interviews for like, you know a long.

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Speaker 4: Time and I don't.

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Speaker 1: So that's my last impression of how she performs in

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Speaker 1: these settings, and obviously was very, very poor. But that

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Speaker 1: was also probably her most catastrophic interview is incident. So

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Speaker 1: I'm wondering if my expectations for her are too low

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Speaker 1: because I'm actually biased in terms of thinking like that's

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Speaker 1: how her standard performances and in general. Obviously, when she

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Speaker 1: was running for president, she gave a lot of interviews

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Speaker 1: and most of them were not all that noteworthy.

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Speaker 4: She was able to get through it well.

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Speaker 1: Enough, so so yeah, the expectations are high. Perhaps the

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Speaker 1: Lester Holt interview being the last thing in people's minds

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Speaker 1: have set the expectations very low for her, which means

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Speaker 1: that she just kind of gets through it with no

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Speaker 1: major major stumbles, then I will be relatively inconsequential. But obviously,

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Speaker 1: because she's waited.

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Speaker 4: So long, she's built up that risk. You know.

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Speaker 1: The knock, the very legitimate I think knock on Kamal

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Speaker 1: Harris that she and her team themselves obviously must agree with,

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Speaker 1: given how cautious they've been about putting her into unscripted settings,

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Speaker 1: is that she's not good in interviews and she's not

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Speaker 1: good in debates. But again, you know, thinking back to

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Speaker 1: how she did against Mike Pints, for example, she did fine,

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Speaker 1: and she had some moments that you know, was perfectly

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Speaker 1: serviceable performance, and she had some moments that they felt

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Speaker 1: good about. Now, those moments are are the sort of

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Speaker 1: thing that the media celebrate, a very like girl Boss

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Speaker 1: type of moments, and you know that she was proud

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Speaker 1: of and sort of reminiscent of that little Girl was

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Speaker 1: Me shot that she landed on Joe Biden, etcetera, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: But CNN was recently reliving some of what they considered

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Speaker 1: to be her strongest debate moments against Mike Pence.

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Speaker 4: Let's go ahead and take a listen to a little

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Speaker 4: bit of that.

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Speaker 5: No, but this is important, and I want to add,

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Speaker 5: mister Vice president, I'm speaking, I'm speaking.

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Speaker 6: You can get fifty more seconds and then we'll give

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Speaker 6: the vice president chance.

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Speaker 5: Joe Biden has been very clear he will not raise

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Speaker 5: taxes on anybody who makes less than four hundred thousand.

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Speaker 3: The Trump tax cut.

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Speaker 5: Mister Vice President, I'm speaking, well, i'm speaking. The important

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Speaker 5: is you said the truth is he only going to

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Speaker 5: repeal part of the Trump tax cuts. If you don't

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Speaker 5: mind letting me finish, we can then have a conversation. Okay, please, okay,

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Speaker 5: let's talk about Yeah, I'm about to.

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Speaker 3: I mean it was like.

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Speaker 7: Is that it was not just watching you right now?

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Speaker 4: That is just what happened right there.

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Speaker 8: So so women oftentimes in the workplace try to be

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Speaker 8: able to get their voices heard and then men try

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Speaker 8: to you.

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Speaker 7: Never did you ever notice, Lauren, let me let you

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Speaker 7: finish your point, attempted to be here, he has the floor.

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Speaker 3: Is that right? I don't.

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Speaker 4: That's lovely, thank you.

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Speaker 9: No.

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Speaker 6: Look, I mean they they are counting on the debates

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Speaker 6: being a kind of catharsis for Democrats.

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Speaker 4: Now, I remember when people watching, Yeah, just turn on

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Speaker 4: cable news.

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Speaker 3: You're right.

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Speaker 2: I mean they erected a literal I'm speaking mural here

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Speaker 2: in Washington, d C. I'm not sure if you remember that.

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Speaker 2: But what CNN wants to do, what CNN was highlighting

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Speaker 2: is that's what they want. That's part of the reason

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Speaker 2: what they want out of the debate. It's part of

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Speaker 2: the reason why Kamala wanted unmuted mics. By the way,

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Speaker 2: we still have yet to get a actual answer on

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Speaker 2: the unmuted microphone.

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Speaker 4: I thought they decided they were going to stick with

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Speaker 4: the original rule.

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Speaker 2: That's what Trump said, But then the Kamala campaign came

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Speaker 2: out and was like, no, we still haven't agreed on that.

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Speaker 2: But he's like, I will be at the debate whatever. Okay,

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Speaker 2: I don't even particularly care at this point.

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Speaker 3: Someone let me know.

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Speaker 2: Just let me know though, what the actual rules are.

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Speaker 2: The point being that, yeah, look, she does fine. I

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Speaker 2: mean personally, you know that doesn't do it for me.

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Speaker 2: But I'm not the only person who votes in this country.

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Speaker 2: There are a lot of people apparently who like it.

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Speaker 2: What you want to see from a Kamala Harris is

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Speaker 2: just a normal like you want a baseline. But the

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Speaker 2: problem is, and this is where it gets to the risk,

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Speaker 2: is that she has had many moments where she significantly

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Speaker 2: underperforms the politician baseline. And that is the interesting thing

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Speaker 2: here where you have somebody who right now you know

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Speaker 2: not only is running on vibes but purely on script

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Speaker 2: and when you're so defensive. And what we also know

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Speaker 2: about her is I think she's a deep, insecure individual

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Speaker 2: from behind the scenes. We know this from her interviews

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Speaker 2: from the high staff turnover, from all of the leaks

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Speaker 2: about the people, about how she explodes behind the scenes

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Speaker 2: whenever she feels like she's not prepared. This is a

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Speaker 2: very typical politician thing to blame your staff when an

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Speaker 2: interview goes badly, even though it's like, hey, you're the

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Speaker 2: one on the camera, lady, like you know, you're the

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Speaker 2: one who allegedly is trying to get elected. So I

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Speaker 2: could see it going both ways. I do think it's

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Speaker 2: going to be better for her that Tim Wallace is

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Speaker 2: there with her, because frankly is just a far more

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Speaker 2: compelling figure. He can he's more affable, he can clean

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Speaker 2: some things up if he needs to. And in general,

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Speaker 2: my general rule is like, if you really can't sit

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Speaker 2: for thirty forty five minutes and not make an idiot

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Speaker 2: of yourself, you don't belong in this business period, Like

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Speaker 2: you should never have made it this far. So if

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Speaker 2: she does fail, I mean that just is real evidence

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Speaker 2: about her genuine weakness as a candidate off the cuff

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Speaker 2: where look, you can try and hide as candidate, but

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Speaker 2: as president it is actually quite literally impossible. The demands

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Speaker 2: of the job actually make it. Even Biden, we saw

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Speaker 2: they tried their absolute best. We had plenty of evidence

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Speaker 2: before we ever set foot on that debate stage.

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Speaker 3: He was a long gone man, right.

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Speaker 2: And so there is a proven aspect to this job

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Speaker 2: where I think some Americans hopefully will be watching, and

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Speaker 2: she has set the stakes now so high given that

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Speaker 2: she's waited over a month to even have an interview. Also,

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Speaker 2: I do think it's a little bs to time it

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Speaker 2: right before Labor Day weekend, when people like me are

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Speaker 2: getting on a plane and many others are probably jetting

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Speaker 2: off or getting in the car and going somewhere on vacation.

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Speaker 2: So that's you know, that's another sign of weakness that

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Speaker 2: we see there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I do think in terms of her public appearances,

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Speaker 1: it seems to me Kamala Harris has never had more confidence.

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Speaker 4: Than she does right now.

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Speaker 3: That's absolutely she has.

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Speaker 1: You know, she has a swagger and a command that

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Speaker 1: she is kind of like, you know, undefinable X factor

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Speaker 1: type characteristics that we didn't really see in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 1: But just to take relive, you know, what was perhaps

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Speaker 1: her worst interview moment and which is really perplexing on

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Speaker 1: a variety of levels because the question was totally totally predictive.

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Speaker 1: Well question that you received and is just completely flummox by.

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Speaker 1: This is the now infamous Lesterholt border interview with Vice

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Speaker 1: presid Kama Harrison satalism.

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Speaker 8: It's one of the topic I wanted to talk to

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Speaker 8: you about it. Let me just quickly put a button.

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Speaker 8: Do you have any plans to visit the border.

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Speaker 5: I'm here in Guatemala today. At some point, you know

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Speaker 5: we are going to the border. We've been to the border.

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Speaker 5: So this whole, this whole, this whole thing about the border.

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Speaker 5: We've been to the border. We've been to the border.

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Speaker 5: You haven't been to the border, and I haven't been

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Speaker 5: to Europe, and I don't I don't understand the point

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Speaker 5: that you're making. I'm not discounting the importance of the border.

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Speaker 8: Well I mentioned because I know Republicans have certainly come

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Speaker 8: atch you on this, but Democratic Congressman quare As a

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Speaker 8: border district has said to you and the President, come

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Speaker 8: you can see this.

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Speaker 5: And I care about what's happening at the border. I'm

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Speaker 5: in Guatemala because my focus is dealing with the root

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Speaker 5: causes of migration. There may be some who think that

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Speaker 5: that is not important, but It is my firm belief

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Speaker 5: that if we care about what's happening at the border,

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Speaker 5: we better care about the root causes and address them.

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Speaker 5: And so that's what I'm doing.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that was a very infamous moment, right

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Speaker 2: for a good reason. We inarticulate lack of command of

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Speaker 2: the facts, a little bit of arrogant air too. I mean,

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Speaker 2: these are these are like the absolute basics, and that's

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Speaker 2: part of what why she was the most unpopular or

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Speaker 2: vice president in modern history, you know, up until she

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Speaker 2: basically got anointed here. And there's no question in my mind,

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Speaker 2: I don't think she would win an open primary if

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Speaker 2: it were actually opened back in the day, but you know,

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Speaker 2: in a real process, not necessarily being anointed.

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Speaker 3: And that is why I think we are.

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Speaker 2: I mean it's a risky proposition for her and for

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Speaker 2: the Democrats. And you see it too, where all of

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Speaker 2: the flip flopping on all of these issues, there's almost

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Speaker 2: been so many that you'd have to do an interview

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Speaker 2: solely focused on that, as opposed to you'd be like, okay,

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Speaker 2: medicare for all, talk about medic aw, then let's do fracking.

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Speaker 2: Then let's do what the border wall, which you're not

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Speaker 2: you're a pro border. Now let's go about the what

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Speaker 2: about crime?

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Speaker 4: About criminals?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, let's cry it's I.

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Speaker 2: Mean I could probably spend two hours with that woman

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Speaker 2: just being like this, this, this, this, this, this, this

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Speaker 2: and this and so do I have confidence that Dana

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Speaker 2: Bash is going to do all that? No, And that's

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Speaker 2: part of the issue, you know, and part of the

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Speaker 2: why she needs to do more interviews, because the other

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Speaker 2: danger is that we see her recreate her infamous debate

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Speaker 2: moment with Tulci Gabbard where she has no idea what

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Speaker 2: to do when called out on her hypocrisy. So with

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Speaker 2: Dana Bash, I mean she'll probably hit her on probably

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Speaker 2: I'm guessing fracking, just because that's one where we've seen

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Speaker 2: them stumble in the past, and probably the border too.

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Speaker 3: I mean, that's the most stark one.

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Speaker 4: So we'll ask her some at least challenging questions.

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Speaker 3: I think, I really hope.

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Speaker 1: So now I would be surprised if she didn't, because

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Speaker 1: it just as I said, they've kind of pissed off

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Speaker 1: the press and so they've made it much more likely

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Speaker 1: that the question will be a bit more hostile, even

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Speaker 1: from someone like Dana bas But to your point, soager,

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Speaker 1: and this is part of why I think there will

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Speaker 1: be some at least somewhat challenging questions. You had John

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Speaker 1: Berman speaking to a Kamala Harris spokesperson and on the

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Speaker 1: flip flopping question, was really pressing him on fracking. Let's

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Speaker 1: take a listen to how that exchange went.

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Speaker 10: The Vice President has changed her position on fracking in Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 3: Do you know why she's changed her position? Listen.

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Speaker 11: I mean, she's been very clear here. She's proud of

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Speaker 11: the work that she's done as a part of this

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Speaker 11: administration making sure that American energy production is at an

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Speaker 11: all time high. We want to continue that progress into

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Speaker 11: her first term in office. Here and again, I think,

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Speaker 11: whether it's energy policy, economic policy writ large, that you

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Speaker 11: have a fighter in Kamala Harris who is actually keeping

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Speaker 11: these interests of the American people front and center, coming

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Speaker 11: together to bring people together in search of solutions that

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Speaker 11: actually improve people's quality of life, improve our economy, improve

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Speaker 11: energy FORDU.

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Speaker 10: But but on frecking, was there something that changed her mind

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Speaker 10: specifically during the four years of the Biden presidency.

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Speaker 11: Now, listen again, the Vice President is very proud of

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Speaker 11: the Biden Harris administration's record on energy production in the

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Speaker 11: economy were at large, she wants to continue to build

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Speaker 11: upon the progress that we've made here that goes for

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Speaker 11: energy production and it goes for the economy across the board.

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Speaker 1: Right, So you know he's pressed multiple times there and

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Speaker 1: this one of the things that will be interesting is

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Speaker 1: like usually when Kamala is prepared, she does well. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you know when she that first debate in twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: in the Democratic primary, you know that little girl was me.

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Speaker 1: Moment has kind of like curdled over time, but it

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Speaker 1: hit in the moment and she was good. Not just then,

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Speaker 1: but she was on it in that debate. She was

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Speaker 1: very good because a lot of the fire wasn't trained

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Speaker 1: on her, so she could just insert herself when she

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Speaker 1: felt comfortable, she could sort of occupy that role as

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Speaker 1: the prosecutor. She had clearly like prepared herself very well

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Speaker 1: for that and she wasn't caught on off guard for

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Speaker 1: whatever reason the lesser whole interview, she was not prepared

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Speaker 1: for that question. There's no one to blame but herself

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Speaker 1: for that.

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Speaker 4: And a lot of.

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Speaker 1: The potentially difficult line in questioning here is also very anticipatable,

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Speaker 1: like the you know, the flip flop questions are really obvious.

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Speaker 1: So if you can't answer that, if you don't have

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Speaker 1: a plan for answering that you can't execute in the moment,

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Speaker 1: it really would be sort of pathetic. Strikely, it would

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Speaker 1: be fairly pathetic. One last point I want to make

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Speaker 1: about this, and then I get your final last time

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Speaker 1: we can move on to the latest.

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Speaker 4: With regard to the polls.

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Speaker 1: But part of why, and I think this is unfortunate,

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Speaker 1: but part of why I don't think that most voters

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Speaker 1: really care that much about how many interviews she does,

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Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera, is because of the fact that

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Speaker 1: media is so discredited, you know, like how much punch

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Speaker 1: does it really pack when Republicans are on the one hand,

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Speaker 1: like all of this is fake news media and you know,

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Speaker 1: Dana Bash is terrible, et cetera, et cetera, but also

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Speaker 1: we really wanted to sit down for an interview with

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Speaker 1: the fake news media. And for a long time, liberals

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Speaker 1: have been the last bastion of like media trust, and

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Speaker 1: that continues to be the case at certainly much higher

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Speaker 1: levels than Republicans, but that has eroded. Also, there was

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Speaker 1: a lot of I don't know if you guys followed

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Speaker 1: this or were in these circles, but there was a

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Speaker 1: lot of liberal criticism and continues to be a lot

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Speaker 1: of liberal criticism of like the New York Times and

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Speaker 1: the wash In Post first over what they saw as

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Speaker 1: unfair coverage of Joe Biden's age. They sort of dropped

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Speaker 1: that one, but now and some of these are really legitimate,

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Speaker 1: Like some of the fact checks that Washington Posts and

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Speaker 1: New York Times have been doing have been relatively absurd.

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Speaker 1: And so there's a media critique conversation that's happening in

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Speaker 1: the liberal side of the equation too that I really

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Speaker 1: have never seen before. And of course independents are also

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Speaker 1: really disaffected and distrustful Americans in general, just like across

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Speaker 1: the board, our mistrusting of the media, and so you know,

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Speaker 1: I think that's part of why she feels like she's

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Speaker 1: going to check this box, because she's under some pressure

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Speaker 1: to do it. But other than that, I don't think

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Speaker 1: she feels particularly compelled or pressured to do these interviews.

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Speaker 1: And again, that's that's an unfortunate thing. That's a sign

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Speaker 1: of the degradation both of our media and of like

438
00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:07,040
Speaker 1: small de democracy in the country.

439
00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:08,840
Speaker 4: But I saw one.

440
00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:13,280
Speaker 1: Journalist describe her as like the first post media presidential candidate,

441
00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:15,880
Speaker 1: and I think in a sense that that is correct.

442
00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:19,439
Speaker 1: She just doesn't feel much pressure and isn't going to

443
00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:23,560
Speaker 1: feel much pressure to have to subject herself to truly rigorous,

444
00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:24,760
Speaker 1: difficult interviews.

445
00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:27,480
Speaker 4: And that's just kind of the new reality.

446
00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:31,320
Speaker 1: In American politics until we the people force a different

447
00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:34,160
Speaker 1: reality from this, just like skating by and not really

448
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:35,640
Speaker 1: happy part questions.

449
00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:35,879
Speaker 3: Exactly right.

450
00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:38,240
Speaker 2: So I look at the data very recently, trust in

451
00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:42,119
Speaker 2: the media amongst democrats partisan democrats is roughly seventy three percent,

452
00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:46,199
Speaker 2: but it's much higher for institutions like MSNBC and others

453
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:49,439
Speaker 2: where they feel like some kinship. And in general, what

454
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:52,880
Speaker 2: you're seeing, especially with younger generations, is that you know.

455
00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:53,600
Speaker 3: Cutting the cord.

456
00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:55,640
Speaker 2: Obviously I support that, and people should and then should

457
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:58,240
Speaker 2: support the show, but you know, has really led to

458
00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:03,000
Speaker 2: a stratification of news consumption. The only reason that Trump

459
00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 2: is not the first post media candidate is because he's

460
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,000
Speaker 2: so old. He still worships a lot of mainstream media

461
00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 2: brands like the New York Times and Time magazine. I mean,

462
00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:15,119
Speaker 2: in his head, he still thinks Time magazine is relevant.

463
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:17,479
Speaker 2: I'm like, again, I was born in nineteen eighty two.

464
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:19,480
Speaker 2: For me, Time is like time for kids. I'm like,

465
00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:22,119
Speaker 2: it's like trash, like something you can throw in the trash.

466
00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:25,400
Speaker 2: Do I know that it once upon a time was relevant? Yeah,

467
00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:27,800
Speaker 2: that's like telling me about somebody being on the cover

468
00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:30,760
Speaker 2: of Life magazine in World War Two. I collect them. Yeah,

469
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:32,400
Speaker 2: it doesn't mean I care about that. Does it even

470
00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:35,000
Speaker 2: exist anymore? I literally couldn't tell you. Yeah, And that's

471
00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:38,200
Speaker 2: a generational thing. So for Kamala and for a lot

472
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:41,160
Speaker 2: of her advisors, they are in. The other thing is too,

473
00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:44,520
Speaker 2: is that the Democrats, and Obama was the chief of this.

474
00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:47,080
Speaker 2: Obama had a deep disdain for the media. People don't

475
00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 2: realize this because he privately both would talk with his

476
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:52,720
Speaker 2: advisors and he was like, why do I have to

477
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:55,040
Speaker 2: give these people anything. They're gonna basically support me no

478
00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:57,800
Speaker 2: matter what. They hate the Republicans, and why should I

479
00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:01,360
Speaker 2: subject myself to fake scrutinies. So he would do He

480
00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:04,560
Speaker 2: actually pioneered, you know, the modern influenced presidency. Remember his

481
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:07,480
Speaker 2: videos with BuzzFeed or he was the first person to

482
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:10,679
Speaker 2: do a Vox interview he actually made history in his

483
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:13,399
Speaker 2: first question as President of the United States was not

484
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 2: to the New York Times or the Associated Press. It

485
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:17,960
Speaker 2: was to the Huffington Post. And that was a very

486
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:20,919
Speaker 2: clear signal. He was like, Hey, the rest of you,

487
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:23,439
Speaker 2: I got options now. Yeah, and that I mean that

488
00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:25,960
Speaker 2: was two thousand and eight or two thousand and nine, Yeah,

489
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:27,440
Speaker 2: the day that happened. To think about how long it's

490
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:30,119
Speaker 2: been since that. So, Pamla, look at the DNC, you

491
00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:32,240
Speaker 2: had the Creator Lounge and all on that. That is

492
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:34,680
Speaker 2: a proto of what is to come. That's not necessarily

493
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:38,119
Speaker 2: a good thing, but you're right in terms of you know,

494
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:41,480
Speaker 2: partisan distrusted media is at a point right now where

495
00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:43,800
Speaker 2: and the Quentin Tarantino was the perfect thing where he's like,

496
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:45,159
Speaker 2: why shouldn't you do an interview? He's like, I'm going

497
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:46,960
Speaker 2: to vote for you no matter what you say. There's

498
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:49,440
Speaker 2: a lot of a lot of people who actually.

499
00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:51,440
Speaker 3: Think that, and they think that about Trump as a wall. True.

500
00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:56,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, Trump has some elements of this strategy too. He

501
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:58,199
Speaker 1: is really leaning into and you see this with the

502
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:02,159
Speaker 1: Tulsi and the RFK junior picks. He's really leaning into

503
00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 1: the sort of like you know, online anti establishment podcast Realm.

504
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 1: He's doing an interview with Lex Friedman apparently coming up

505
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:13,919
Speaker 1: as an example of that and betting that that's like

506
00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:17,120
Speaker 1: a significant enough force now in American politics to make

507
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 1: a difference from him. So interesting experiment that he's running there.

508
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:24,919
Speaker 1: But but yeah, I mean the previous norms of sitting

509
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,600
Speaker 1: for these interviews and feeling responsibility to do them, and

510
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:30,560
Speaker 1: like the main networks, you know, getting these interviews regular,

511
00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:36,680
Speaker 1: it's basically over. And so this is this pressure resulting

512
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 1: in her sitting down and doing this interview with Dana

513
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:41,920
Speaker 1: Bash is kind of a last gasp of the old

514
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,639
Speaker 1: way of doing things for better and mostly for worse.

515
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,119
Speaker 1: Let's go and move on to the polling here that

516
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 1: we have. It's been you know, a while now since

517
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,000
Speaker 1: the DNC wrapped, and we haven't had a lot of

518
00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:58,640
Speaker 1: especially high quality polling. We finally got some Fox News

519
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:01,280
Speaker 1: polls and this is they are quality polster out of

520
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 1: several battleground states.

521
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:04,240
Speaker 4: Let's go and put this up on the screen.

522
00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:06,439
Speaker 1: These are really interesting and I'll tell you why in

523
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:10,480
Speaker 1: just a second. So we've got Arizona Harris fifty Trump

524
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 1: forty nine, so one point difference there Georgia Harris fifty

525
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 1: Trump forty eight, Nevada Harris fifty Trump forty eight, and

526
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 1: North Carolina is the one where Trump has a one

527
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:23,200
Speaker 1: point lead.

528
00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,680
Speaker 4: And part of what this really.

529
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:29,360
Speaker 1: Grabbed a lot of attention saga is that these numbers

530
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 1: are almost exactly the twenty twenty Biden Trump actual election numbers,

531
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:40,200
Speaker 1: So a lot of twenty twenty vibes coming out of

532
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:44,359
Speaker 1: these polls. These were taken post DNC and also just

533
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:46,360
Speaker 1: after the RFK dropout.

534
00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 4: So they should in theory.

535
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,040
Speaker 1: Although sometimes it takes time for news to know leak

536
00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 1: out people to really get a sort of wrap their

537
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 1: heads around changing dynamics, et cetera, but they should reflect

538
00:24:56,920 --> 00:25:01,280
Speaker 1: both a potential post DNC bounce and a potential impact

539
00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 1: of RFK dropping out and endorsing Trump.

540
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:04,560
Speaker 3: Yeah.

541
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:07,399
Speaker 2: I mean that is really interesting battleground polling. And you

542
00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 2: can take it two different ways. You can say, wow,

543
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 2: that's accurate, it's just like twenty twenty, or you can

544
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 2: point to the fact that it's so ambiguous and within

545
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 2: the margin of error it effectively just says, well, we'll

546
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:19,240
Speaker 2: always stay on the show. It's like coin flip. If

547
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:23,040
Speaker 2: I look at the Nate Silver projection. His last projection

548
00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 2: that came out after RFK dropped out of the race,

549
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:29,040
Speaker 2: is not in terms of the national polling, but he

550
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:32,440
Speaker 2: has in his forecast Harris at a fifty point four

551
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:34,919
Speaker 2: percent and Trump at forty eight point four And that's.

552
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 3: As close as you could possibly get for the tie.

553
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 2: I looked at Polymarket just this morning, the biggest betting

554
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:44,639
Speaker 2: market site right now, it's about Trump fifty percent t

555
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:48,200
Speaker 2: Kamala forty nine percent. Same thing, And so I think

556
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:50,680
Speaker 2: a lot of it will come down to both polling error,

557
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 2: but a lot of it is also enthusiasm. And enthusiasm

558
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:57,920
Speaker 2: though is with the Democrats. So right now, the brand

559
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 2: new gallop Gallop pulling out this morning, US respondents enthusiasm

560
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 2: about voting compared to different presidential elections is at the

561
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 2: highest level since nineteen ninety six. Actually, Democratic excitement about

562
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:16,160
Speaker 2: voting is now surging to two thousand and eight levels. Now,

563
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:18,719
Speaker 2: that said, one of the reasons why this is very

564
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:21,200
Speaker 2: different from two thousand and eight is that Republicans were

565
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 2: not enthusiastic to vote No. Eight while Democrats were, whereas

566
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:26,240
Speaker 2: this time around, Republicans are actually quite enthusiastic.

567
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:28,919
Speaker 3: So you actually have the battle of excitement.

568
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:32,439
Speaker 2: You could say previously it was trending in the direction

569
00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 2: of a lower turnout election of twenty twenty. I don't

570
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:36,919
Speaker 2: think that's going to be the case this time. It

571
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 2: may even be higher or matching. And remember twenty twenty

572
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 2: was the highest level a voter participation that we've had

573
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:42,840
Speaker 2: in decades.

574
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:44,919
Speaker 3: So actually, quite a lot of this is actually.

575
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 2: Going to come down to turning out your own side

576
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,440
Speaker 2: and the traditional coalition. If you're Harris, that's a good thing.

577
00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:52,879
Speaker 2: You're Trump, it's also a good thing. So it really

578
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:55,919
Speaker 2: puts you in a fighting chance on both sides of that.

579
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 3: I mean, if I were Trump.

580
00:26:57,359 --> 00:26:59,120
Speaker 2: This is why, you know, with the podcast thing, it's

581
00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 2: easy to cringe all that, but it's one of those

582
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:02,639
Speaker 2: where is it going to be the you know, is

583
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:04,960
Speaker 2: it going to be the main reason you win? Absolutely not.

584
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 2: But in a game of inches, basically everything matters. And

585
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:11,000
Speaker 2: that's why, you know, RFK is really what brought me

586
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 2: back to totally Trump fifty to fifty, because yes, he's

587
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 2: still going to be on the ballot, but you know,

588
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:17,960
Speaker 2: if he's going to be stumping out there on the

589
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:20,720
Speaker 2: campaign trail for Trump, and same with Tulsi like listen,

590
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:23,399
Speaker 2: one percent. That's the difference. That's literally the margin in

591
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:24,240
Speaker 2: half of these states.

592
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,879
Speaker 1: See, I just I give I actually don't think that

593
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,880
Speaker 1: it is a smart strategy leaning into the Tulsi Gabbard

594
00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 1: RFK junior strategy.

595
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:34,600
Speaker 3: Well about podcast more, Yeah, I mean.

596
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 4: The podcasting is interesting. We'll see.

597
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:40,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, a lot of these a lot of the podcast

598
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:42,400
Speaker 1: is going on. The people that are listening to them,

599
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:46,240
Speaker 1: are are you supporting him? But let me go ahead

600
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:48,879
Speaker 1: and cueue up this this next sound by, because to

601
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:52,399
Speaker 1: be honest with you, this is more persuasive to me

602
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 1: than frankly, any of the poles that I've seen because polls,

603
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:57,200
Speaker 1: we've seen them be all over the place, and I

604
00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 1: don't know what to make of them at this point.

605
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 1: Are they understanding Trump or the over stating Trump? You

606
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 1: can look at twenty twenty and say they're understating. You

607
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 1: can look at twenty twenty two and say they're oversaying.

608
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:11,200
Speaker 1: Hard to say, right, But there's this data analytics firm.

609
00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 1: Now it is a democratic firm, so keep that in mind.

610
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:16,960
Speaker 1: But they're just looking at the numbers and crunching the

611
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:21,160
Speaker 1: numbers around voter registration and who is registering to vote.

612
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:23,240
Speaker 1: So this is not like, oh, I've got to do

613
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 1: a likely voter sample and can I get people on

614
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 1: the phone, et cetera. No, these are the hard, factual

615
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:32,000
Speaker 1: numbers based on what different states are reporting in terms

616
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:35,240
Speaker 1: of who is registering to vote now. The firm is

617
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 1: called Target Smart. They are one of the only outlets

618
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 1: that successfully predicted that twenty twenty two was not going

619
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 1: to be a red wave, and the reason they saw

620
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:45,720
Speaker 1: it coming is because they were looking at this voter

621
00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:50,760
Speaker 1: registration data and saying, listen, this just doesn't fit with

622
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 1: the metrics of a red wave type of election. So

623
00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 1: the Tom Bonier is the name of the guy you're

624
00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:02,160
Speaker 1: about to listen to. He has new numbers reflecting since

625
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 1: Biden dropped out and Kamala got in a massive surge

626
00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 1: in Democratic Party registration, but specifically among key demographic groups

627
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 1: that you would expect to be enthusiastic about Kamala Harris

628
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 1: and aligned with her and looking to vote for her

629
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 1: in the fall. Let's take a listen to how he

630
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 1: breaks down.

631
00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:24,480
Speaker 12: We're tracking something really interesting going on right now. It's

632
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:27,680
Speaker 12: a surge in voter registration in key groups ahead of

633
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:31,840
Speaker 12: the November election among young Black women, registration is up

634
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:35,680
Speaker 12: more than one hundred seventy five percent. You heard that right,

635
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:39,479
Speaker 12: more than one hundred and seventy five percent in thirteen states.

636
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:43,360
Speaker 12: That's compared to the same time in twenty twenty. This,

637
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:47,520
Speaker 12: according to the data firm Target Smart, registration has also

638
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 12: increased among young Latinas and Black Americans one hundred and

639
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 12: seventy five percent. Can that possibly be right? If you

640
00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 12: must have triple checked this or many more times than.

641
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 13: That, You're right to repeat the number, because I have

642
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:01,600
Speaker 13: more than triple checked it. It's in incredibly unusual to

643
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:05,320
Speaker 13: see changes in voter registration that are anywhere close to this.

644
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:06,920
Speaker 13: I mean to remind people, one hundred and seventy five

645
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 13: percent is almost tripling of registration rates among this specific group.

646
00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:15,160
Speaker 13: You just don't see that sort of thing happen in

647
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:16,200
Speaker 13: elections normally.

648
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:19,000
Speaker 1: Let's go and put the charts back up on the screen.

649
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 1: The next element that we have here, just so people

650
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:23,440
Speaker 1: can be taking a look at this. This is a

651
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:26,640
Speaker 1: tweet from the same individual, senior advisor to Target Smart,

652
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 1: Tom Bonnier. He says the Harris effect in the thirteen

653
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 1: states that have updated voter files since July twenty First,

654
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:34,959
Speaker 1: that's when Biden dropped down. We are seeing incredible surges

655
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:37,520
Speaker 1: in voter registration relative the same time period in twenty

656
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:41,120
Speaker 1: twenty four, driven by women, voters of color, and young voters.

657
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 4: So if you look across this.

658
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 1: Graph all the way on the left, the smallest surge

659
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 1: was among Republicans, the next smallest surge was among men.

660
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 1: And the more you get to the right and the

661
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:58,080
Speaker 1: greater surge that you see, the more these groups typically.

662
00:30:57,760 --> 00:30:58,720
Speaker 4: Vote for Democrats.

663
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:01,680
Speaker 1: And in fact they you know, they not only look

664
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:03,920
Speaker 1: at states where you have to register as a Democrat

665
00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 1: or Republican, but they also model whether a particular voter

666
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:10,000
Speaker 1: is likely to be a Democrat or Republican, which sadly

667
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 1: is actually quite easy to do. We're all very predictable, apparently,

668
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 1: And fifty one percent surge an increase in registration for

669
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 1: Democrats post July twenty one, when Biden dropped down, And

670
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:24,080
Speaker 1: like I said to me, this is perhaps the most

671
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 1: persuasive data that I've seen that it is possible the

672
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 1: polls are actually undercounting Kamala Harris support because they are

673
00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 1: very unlikely to pick up new voters. And another point

674
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 1: he made which was interesting to me. New voters are

675
00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:41,880
Speaker 1: actually more likely to turn out and vote. So first

676
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 1: time voters are more likely to turn out and vote

677
00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 1: than people who have been registered for a long time.

678
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 1: So Saga, wondering what you made of this and how

679
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:53,040
Speaker 1: much significance The other side of the equation would be.

680
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 1: You know, these groups were so depressed under Biden that

681
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 1: there's this like just pent up you know, they rather

682
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 1: than kind of actually registering all the way along like

683
00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 1: you would have expected, there was this pent up demand

684
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:06,960
Speaker 1: and once Kama comes in and people they would have

685
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 1: been the ones that registered before under Biden, but they

686
00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 1: were so depressed by him, and so this doesn't reflect

687
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 1: anything majorly different.

688
00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 4: But to me, these numbers are pretty extraordinary.

689
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 2: I know there are extraordinary and also because they're real,

690
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 2: and I mean, the cope if you were a Trump

691
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 2: person would be, hey, listen, the electric's actually changed.

692
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 3: You can't necessarily bank.

693
00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:25,480
Speaker 2: On the fact that all young voters are going to

694
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 2: go for Pa Kamala or for black voters.

695
00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:30,480
Speaker 4: I mean, I saw young black women seeming pretty safe

696
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 4: that young.

697
00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:33,080
Speaker 3: Black women aby, yeah, but young black men.

698
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:35,680
Speaker 2: I mean, listen, the last Fox News poll, that's one

699
00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:38,640
Speaker 2: that we showed actually had Trump tripling his black support

700
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:39,680
Speaker 2: from seven to nineteen.

701
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 3: I mean, that's pretty crisy.

702
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:44,120
Speaker 4: But that's not by I launched the group that's ludging here. Yeah.

703
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:46,120
Speaker 2: Now again, I'm just saying, like the cope would be

704
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 2: that the shift in the electorate has dramatically changed. One

705
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 2: case for why a lot of this you know, polling

706
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 2: stuff is Ryan Grodski recently wrote a post about the

707
00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 2: liberal poll response bias. This is not an unskewed in terms. No, no, no,

708
00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 2: it's not about it's about everything. Yeah, I mean, and

709
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 2: it was accurate in twenty twenty. Is that a bunch

710
00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 2: of older white Liberals were home and they were the

711
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 2: only ones who were answering in the phone, and that

712
00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 2: was part of the reason that they were off so much. So,

713
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:12,840
Speaker 2: I mean, I see compelling reason as to why that

714
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:16,479
Speaker 2: wouldn't replicate itself. I don't see how necessarily they might

715
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:18,480
Speaker 2: have been able to change it. I'm not saying that

716
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:20,920
Speaker 2: it isn't tight, or that Trump is winning or losing.

717
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:23,640
Speaker 2: It's that this voter registration data is very compelling.

718
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:25,520
Speaker 3: Yeah. I do know that the.

719
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:27,680
Speaker 2: Republicans have some of their own answer and I've been

720
00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 2: doing this now for two years. There's groups like Charlie

721
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:33,720
Speaker 2: Kirks and the Scott Presler who have been out there

722
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 2: for almost two and a half years now just registering

723
00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 2: the shit out of a lot of Republican voters. So

724
00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 2: there was a basically there was a huge recognition post

725
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:43,320
Speaker 2: twenty twenty. They're like, all right, we got met, we

726
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:45,840
Speaker 2: got destroyed on mail in voting, and then they were like,

727
00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:48,120
Speaker 2: well we'll try and beat them and you know, win

728
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:49,920
Speaker 2: a midterm and then you get killed in the midterms,

729
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:51,760
Speaker 2: Like okay, well we're going to go to war with

730
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:53,880
Speaker 2: the army that we have under the current rules, and

731
00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 2: so they're trying to register as many seniors as possible,

732
00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:01,760
Speaker 2: you know, have mail in voting, of target targeting with mail, etc.

733
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:04,520
Speaker 2: I think that the case would be that, you know,

734
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 2: the Republican turnout machine is not as ideologically against the

735
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:10,360
Speaker 2: current voting system, and so that's one of where the

736
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:12,719
Speaker 2: corrective could be as well. So anyway, I mean, look,

737
00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 2: in general, voting participation is good, so I'm haster I

738
00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 2: want people to be more registered to vote.

739
00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 1: So, to be honest with you, I was thinking about

740
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:23,360
Speaker 1: this if I put the polls aside, right, because it

741
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:26,879
Speaker 1: Like I said before, which direction are they off at

742
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:29,719
Speaker 1: this point? No one can sell right, No one knows.

743
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:32,440
Speaker 1: If I put the polls aside and I look at

744
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:36,400
Speaker 1: the fundamentals, the race actually looks pretty simple. Kamala Harris

745
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 1: is more popular than Donald Trump. Tim Walls is more

746
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 1: popular than jd Vance. The issue set she's running on.

747
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:43,719
Speaker 1: We're going to talk about more about this with the

748
00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:47,600
Speaker 1: Trump economic block. The issue set she's running on is

749
00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:52,280
Speaker 1: more popular, including her economic plans and leaning into abortion.

750
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 1: He's old, she's young. And the big advantage that he's

751
00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 1: always had on the economy, which he maintained against Joe Biden,

752
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 1: and Joe Biden was able to overcome that advantage is

753
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:09,520
Speaker 1: basically gone. She's neutralized it. So the more I look

754
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:12,760
Speaker 1: at the fundamentals, the more I feel like the only

755
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:14,560
Speaker 1: reason that I'm you know.

756
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 4: So reluctant to be like, it looks.

757
00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:18,960
Speaker 1: Like she's in the lead and she's you know, has

758
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:20,640
Speaker 1: the edge in terms of winning, is just because it's

759
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 1: Donald Trump and who the hell knows what's going to happen.

760
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:25,120
Speaker 1: But to be honest with you, we may be over

761
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:28,280
Speaker 1: complicating this because when you look at all those factors

762
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:31,759
Speaker 1: lined up she When you test, you know, all the

763
00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:35,280
Speaker 1: different presidential characteristics that people want to see in a leader,

764
00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:38,120
Speaker 1: she wins on almost all of them. The one where

765
00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 1: he usually gets her as like strong leader, but on

766
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:43,080
Speaker 1: all of the other ones she outperforms him.

767
00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:45,480
Speaker 4: So this is someone who people like more.

768
00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:48,840
Speaker 1: They like her policies more, she's more useful.

769
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:50,560
Speaker 4: She's captured that.

770
00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:53,759
Speaker 1: Like we want change spirit, even as she is in

771
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:56,280
Speaker 1: some ways an emblem of the status quo, She's captured

772
00:35:56,280 --> 00:36:00,480
Speaker 1: that like change spirit. And so looking at those voter

773
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:04,560
Speaker 1: registration numbers, it gave me more of a sense that

774
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:07,240
Speaker 1: those fundamentals actually do reflect reality.

775
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:09,160
Speaker 2: You could be right, I mean, the counter would be,

776
00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:11,840
Speaker 2: you know, the immigration situation is crazy. We're going to

777
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:14,640
Speaker 2: talk about the polling later with Trump, that has been

778
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:16,360
Speaker 2: a massive change. The other thing is we live in

779
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 2: a way more divided country than it ever before, where

780
00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:21,160
Speaker 2: a lot of those fundamentals don't actually matter all that

781
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:24,480
Speaker 2: much sometimes for partisan people whenever they go to vote.

782
00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 2: And you know, look at the way that people even

783
00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:29,480
Speaker 2: perceive the economy depending on who the president is in power.

784
00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:31,840
Speaker 2: The economy situation over the last three years still was

785
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:34,200
Speaker 2: not good. So she may be running on something, but

786
00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 2: she's got the Biden baggage, and if Trump could successfully

787
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:39,040
Speaker 2: tie her, then you don't even need to win the

788
00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:41,360
Speaker 2: popular vote. You only need to win by one vote

789
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:44,160
Speaker 2: in all these three states. So that's one where I

790
00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:46,719
Speaker 2: still see, you know, a major electoral college advantage that

791
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:51,640
Speaker 2: Donald Trump has Pennsylvania in particular. The Senate races are

792
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:55,759
Speaker 2: actually narrowing in some respects lately, depending on where you

793
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 2: look at. And so I see three scenarios. I see

794
00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:03,720
Speaker 2: dem out. I see like extremely tight and narrow where

795
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:06,600
Speaker 2: whoever wins only wins by you know, two to five

796
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:10,160
Speaker 2: electoral votes. But I could also see a major Republican

797
00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:14,320
Speaker 2: of victory as well, where there was a significant underestimating

798
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:17,880
Speaker 2: of a lot of this discontent a La twenty and sixteen,

799
00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:21,799
Speaker 2: just because you know, polling as we know, doesn't necessarily

800
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:23,799
Speaker 2: capture a lot of stuff. And Trump is such a

801
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 2: unique and dynamic figure that he is so able to

802
00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:30,040
Speaker 2: always defy expectations at the ballot box. I mean again,

803
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 2: though we don't have a lot of data. That's part

804
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 2: of the issue with elections. It only happens every four years,

805
00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:36,480
Speaker 2: so you can you can conjure a narrative like I

806
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:38,920
Speaker 2: just did out of two freaking elections. It's just not

807
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 2: a lot, you know, for us to make any sense

808
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:42,000
Speaker 2: of you know.

809
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:44,200
Speaker 1: The one thing though that the Trump people, and you

810
00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 1: always point this out in twenty twenty, would point to

811
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:48,759
Speaker 1: when we come on, when they come on rising, it

812
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:51,880
Speaker 1: was the economy. Yeah, they'd be like, he still vastly

813
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:54,279
Speaker 1: outperforms Joe Biden on the economy. And we were sort

814
00:37:54,320 --> 00:37:58,400
Speaker 1: of like whatever, because the polls were so clear at that,

815
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:01,800
Speaker 1: I mean, Biden was winning by nine points, ten points whatever.

816
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:04,920
Speaker 1: COVID was a catastrophe. Were like, it's over for your cannon.

817
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, But actually they were right. I mean they

818
00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:12,000
Speaker 1: still lost, ye, but the economic numbers were one of

819
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:13,440
Speaker 1: the things that kept him in the game.

820
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:17,520
Speaker 4: So when I see and actually we can put yeah, it's.

821
00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:20,520
Speaker 1: A nine the last element in this black eyes throw

822
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 1: this up on the screen. When I see and this

823
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 1: isn't the only poll that reflects this, When I see

824
00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:30,400
Speaker 1: her pulling close or even or even or on that

825
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:33,000
Speaker 1: question of who would be better on getting prices down,

826
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:35,960
Speaker 1: she pulls a little bit ahead. When I see that,

827
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:40,560
Speaker 1: I feel like that is maybe as consequential a poll

828
00:38:40,640 --> 00:38:43,680
Speaker 1: number as I have seen because that was the one

829
00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:45,919
Speaker 1: thing that they were like, No, but people care about

830
00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 1: the economy. It's always the number one issue, and they

831
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:51,720
Speaker 1: still like Trump on the economy. That she has managed

832
00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:56,040
Speaker 1: to neutralize his advantage on what has always been his

833
00:38:56,120 --> 00:39:01,319
Speaker 1: strongest issue, I think is quite remarkable. And you know,

834
00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 1: with regard to immigration, no doubt that's her weakest issue.

835
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 1: They know that's her weakest issue. I think they're handling

836
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:08,640
Speaker 1: it very poorly. We'll talk more about that in a

837
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:14,319
Speaker 1: later block. However, I just don't see evidence that this

838
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 1: is a big issue for swing voters. I think abortion

839
00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:19,759
Speaker 1: is a much larger, more consequential issue in terms of

840
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:24,200
Speaker 1: driving enthusiasm and in terms of swing voters, especially given

841
00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:26,920
Speaker 1: the fact that the immigration you know, the border numbers

842
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:28,400
Speaker 1: are down at this point.

843
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:30,920
Speaker 4: You don't have you know, there was a peak.

844
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:32,960
Speaker 1: Of concern previously when there were all these buses go

845
00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 1: into blue cities and there was a real you know,

846
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:38,279
Speaker 1: there's a real concern and frenzy about that, and understandably

847
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:43,400
Speaker 1: so I think that has peaked. And again, the most

848
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 1: hawkish immigration voters are already voting for Donald Trump. So, yes,

849
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:50,640
Speaker 1: it's her weakest issue. Yes, it's a problem for her.

850
00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:53,200
Speaker 1: I just don't see it as being as consequential as

851
00:39:53,239 --> 00:39:54,120
Speaker 1: Republicans hope it will be.

852
00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:55,960
Speaker 2: It's like I said, if it's an abortion election, the

853
00:39:55,960 --> 00:39:57,719
Speaker 2: Democrats are going to win. This's just no question in

854
00:39:57,719 --> 00:40:00,239
Speaker 2: my mind, considering every state data that we know at

855
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:01,400
Speaker 2: this point, the super majority.

856
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:03,360
Speaker 3: If it's an immigration election, I think Trump is gonna win.

857
00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:06,400
Speaker 3: If it's an economy election, it's very down the middle,

858
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 3: and I could see it. Yeah. I mean, look, there's.

859
00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:10,920
Speaker 2: No question that Kama is a way better Canada than Biden,

860
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:13,680
Speaker 2: and that's why the GOP should be more afraid. They

861
00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 2: shouldn't be doing. It's like vice versa. They should just

862
00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:19,839
Speaker 2: not talk about abortion period as much as they possibly could,

863
00:40:20,040 --> 00:40:21,480
Speaker 2: like what do you mean? Oh did you say immigration?

864
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:23,720
Speaker 2: Was that what you meant? And then vice versa. If

865
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:26,520
Speaker 2: I were the Democrats, I wouldn't even try to compete

866
00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:29,080
Speaker 2: unless you're a Ruben Gego because that guy is what

867
00:40:29,160 --> 00:40:31,280
Speaker 2: a unique race we should talk about it at some point,

868
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:35,520
Speaker 2: the only candidate where what was it? The Arizona Police

869
00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 2: Association is endorsing Trump and Ruben Gyego Lake, and he

870
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 2: put out an ad in Spanish talking about hiring more

871
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:45,399
Speaker 2: border agents I mean, I couldn't love that more from

872
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:48,440
Speaker 2: a realignment perspective, but it does show you why, to.

873
00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:49,960
Speaker 4: Say, Arizona politics, that's.

874
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:52,480
Speaker 2: Why is up eleven points, up eleven points in the

875
00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:55,680
Speaker 2: state of Arizona, while Trump is basically tied with Kamala Harris.

876
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:58,000
Speaker 2: I mean, that's shocking, you know, just to behold some

877
00:40:58,080 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 2: of what that looks like. And there's a case that

878
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:03,560
Speaker 2: performance by Diego would actually help Kamala Harris by. So

879
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:05,479
Speaker 2: you know, this is where a strong or a week

880
00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:09,400
Speaker 2: Senate candidate can really be. It could make the deciding

881
00:41:09,640 --> 00:41:12,719
Speaker 2: factor just because split ticket voting in a presidential year.

882
00:41:13,120 --> 00:41:15,399
Speaker 2: Not saying it can't happen, but you know it's it's

883
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:18,960
Speaker 2: relatively rare. So listen, I wouldn't I wouldn't deny you

884
00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:21,920
Speaker 2: know that there are some fundamentals on the Democratic side.

885
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:24,680
Speaker 2: I just am always very very cautious. I mean, you know,

886
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:27,800
Speaker 2: we live through twenty sixteen, we live through twenty twenty,

887
00:41:27,840 --> 00:41:29,920
Speaker 2: and you know, getting the pulse in the mood of

888
00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:33,560
Speaker 2: the country, foreseeing those Latino shifts in South Texas and

889
00:41:33,640 --> 00:41:35,960
Speaker 2: all of that, or foreseeing the white liberal wave in

890
00:41:36,000 --> 00:41:39,200
Speaker 2: twenty twenty twenty two, we're so so unexpected with so

891
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:41,839
Speaker 2: tiny little bits of data to be able to point

892
00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:45,360
Speaker 2: to it is. It's more about like, let's just see,

893
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:46,560
Speaker 2: I guess where the chips fall.

894
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:48,040
Speaker 3: That that's really all we can do.

895
00:41:48,160 --> 00:41:50,600
Speaker 2: We can do Yeah, difficult, right, difficult for people like

896
00:41:50,640 --> 00:41:55,040
Speaker 2: us especially all right, let's go to the next part

897
00:41:55,040 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 2: on the economy. This was actually could be consequential as well.

898
00:41:58,600 --> 00:42:00,720
Speaker 2: This is another reason actually to really to our previous

899
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:04,279
Speaker 2: discussion about while I'm always just a little bit skeptical

900
00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:07,799
Speaker 2: about counting all these fundamentals for the Democrats, let's put

901
00:42:07,800 --> 00:42:09,799
Speaker 2: this up there please on the screen. There is an

902
00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 2: overwhelming amount of discontent within the American public right now

903
00:42:14,080 --> 00:42:18,160
Speaker 2: about quote the American dream feels out of reach for most.

904
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:21,919
Speaker 2: And what is really interesting to me is both about

905
00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:24,040
Speaker 2: how people define the American dream and I think.

906
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:25,799
Speaker 3: We're basically talking about the most basic things here.

907
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:28,279
Speaker 2: So, for example, when it comes to achieving your own

908
00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:30,799
Speaker 2: vision of the American dream, how is important is each

909
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:34,680
Speaker 2: of the following? So nearly one hundred percent, say financial

910
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:40,800
Speaker 2: security is essential or important, but is essential and or important?

911
00:42:40,840 --> 00:42:44,400
Speaker 2: Comfortable retirement almost one hundred percent, home ownership almost one

912
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:49,000
Speaker 2: hundred percent, annual vacation something like eighty percent. Things go

913
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:51,280
Speaker 2: down a little bit more whenever it terms to talking

914
00:42:51,360 --> 00:42:55,800
Speaker 2: kids and or having marriage, but financial security, retirement, home ownership,

915
00:42:55,960 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 2: annual vacation. So basically like decent life, quality of life,

916
00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:01,640
Speaker 2: those the things, and then the ability to support a

917
00:43:01,680 --> 00:43:05,319
Speaker 2: family is somewhat less. So that's what people define as

918
00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:08,439
Speaker 2: the American dream. Now, do you think the American dream

919
00:43:08,480 --> 00:43:10,840
Speaker 2: that if you work hard you'll get ahead still holds true?

920
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:14,799
Speaker 2: The precipitous drop in numbers really, I think feeds the

921
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:17,799
Speaker 2: anti establishment sentiment that I can't let go of. So,

922
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:21,120
Speaker 2: for example, in twenty and twelve, the first time that

923
00:43:21,160 --> 00:43:24,680
Speaker 2: they asked this question, fifty three percent of Americans said

924
00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:29,160
Speaker 2: that the American dream quote still holds true. About forty

925
00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:32,239
Speaker 2: two percent said once held true, but not anymore, and

926
00:43:32,600 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 2: never held true was four percent. Well, now, if we

927
00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:38,759
Speaker 2: look at twenty twenty four numbers, forty nine percent, so

928
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 2: the majority actual or the plurality here say it once

929
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:45,880
Speaker 2: held true but not anymore. Only thirty four say that

930
00:43:46,000 --> 00:43:49,480
Speaker 2: quote it is still holds true, and some seventeen percent

931
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:53,240
Speaker 2: say it never held true. So the nihilism is very high,

932
00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:56,799
Speaker 2: but probably even worse than nihilism is once held true,

933
00:43:56,800 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 2: but not anymore. And that is where you know, I

934
00:43:59,040 --> 00:44:01,400
Speaker 2: could just see that make Up America Great Again messaging

935
00:44:01,600 --> 00:44:04,759
Speaker 2: as it did in twenty sixteen, resonating just enough with

936
00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:07,719
Speaker 2: people who have been priced out of the American dream.

937
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:11,160
Speaker 2: Don't forget that the mortgage rate continues to remain high. Yes,

938
00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:13,799
Speaker 2: an interest rate cut is coming, but that doesn't mean

939
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:16,920
Speaker 2: that the prices changes or anything or that will be

940
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:20,360
Speaker 2: in the foreseeable future. Home prices have either stabilized or

941
00:44:20,360 --> 00:44:23,440
Speaker 2: have gone up. Grocery prices and all the inflation whenever

942
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:26,520
Speaker 2: we peg two four years ago is not good. Up

943
00:44:26,560 --> 00:44:30,040
Speaker 2: almost twenty five thirty percent. The fundamentals of a lot

944
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:33,520
Speaker 2: of where people see in life is still high, to

945
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:35,160
Speaker 2: the point where they feel discontent.

946
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:35,399
Speaker 3: Now.

947
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:38,600
Speaker 2: The problem for Trump is that Biden was so tied

948
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:41,279
Speaker 2: to the twenty twenty status quo, but he was such

949
00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:44,200
Speaker 2: a winner on change, where Kamala has a chance to

950
00:44:44,320 --> 00:44:47,359
Speaker 2: compete on change here and make it a little bit

951
00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:49,879
Speaker 2: more of a contest. But in general, this is why

952
00:44:49,920 --> 00:44:53,040
Speaker 2: I never count out Trump and the discontent feeling of

953
00:44:53,440 --> 00:44:54,759
Speaker 2: actually building something new.

954
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:58,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean this is like on a long term decline,

955
00:44:59,000 --> 00:45:04,240
Speaker 1: right and I think it's obviously there's the reality of

956
00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:08,480
Speaker 1: housing has never been more unaffordable. Right, All of the

957
00:45:08,520 --> 00:45:11,560
Speaker 1: things that we think of as the bedrock of a

958
00:45:11,719 --> 00:45:15,360
Speaker 1: stable middle class life have become more and more and

959
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:16,960
Speaker 1: more and more and more and more.

960
00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:18,880
Speaker 4: Expensive over decades.

961
00:45:19,120 --> 00:45:19,319
Speaker 3: Right.

962
00:45:19,760 --> 00:45:23,759
Speaker 1: So, yes, we have this very important inflation conversation about

963
00:45:23,760 --> 00:45:25,359
Speaker 1: what you're paying at the grocery store, what you're paying

964
00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:26,839
Speaker 1: at the pump. These are things that are in your

965
00:45:26,840 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 1: face every single day and impact your budget every single month.

966
00:45:30,719 --> 00:45:35,120
Speaker 1: But we've missed the inflation conversation that has led, I

967
00:45:35,160 --> 00:45:39,760
Speaker 1: think to this chart, which is Number one, no retirement security,

968
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:43,400
Speaker 1: right the end of the guaranteed pension, you know, effective

969
00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:45,600
Speaker 1: end of the guaranteed pension, where now it's like you

970
00:45:45,680 --> 00:45:47,520
Speaker 1: got to be out there, save in on your own

971
00:45:47,560 --> 00:45:49,439
Speaker 1: and hope for the market to work out for you.

972
00:45:49,640 --> 00:45:53,359
Speaker 1: And there's just an amazing level of precarity that comes

973
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:59,600
Speaker 1: with that. Number Two healthcare so expensive and not a

974
00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:02,160
Speaker 1: prayer that either one of these candidates have any interest

975
00:46:02,200 --> 00:46:07,200
Speaker 1: in really fixing it. Kamala Harris wants to extend the

976
00:46:07,200 --> 00:46:10,600
Speaker 1: Obamacare subsidies that were part of the covid era package,

977
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:13,840
Speaker 1: and you know, Trump last time around, tried.

978
00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:15,200
Speaker 4: To repeal the Affordable Care Act.

979
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:17,080
Speaker 1: They're trying to say this time maybe he won't do that.

980
00:46:17,160 --> 00:46:19,759
Speaker 1: We don't really freakin now, but there's no plan to

981
00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:23,400
Speaker 1: actually fix the situation. I think that's pretty clear on

982
00:46:23,480 --> 00:46:26,399
Speaker 1: both regards. And as I said, over decades, healthcare has

983
00:46:26,440 --> 00:46:30,480
Speaker 1: just gone wildly expensive. You think about a college education,

984
00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:34,800
Speaker 1: you know, what could be more associated with the like neoliberal.

985
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:37,680
Speaker 4: Era of the achievement oriented good.

986
00:46:37,480 --> 00:46:41,040
Speaker 1: Life is you work hard, you go to college, get

987
00:46:41,080 --> 00:46:44,120
Speaker 1: that white collar job, you're able to, you know, achieve

988
00:46:44,200 --> 00:46:48,000
Speaker 1: that middle class or upper middle class even prosperity. College

989
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:54,920
Speaker 1: education so unaffordable, so expensive, and then maybe the most

990
00:46:55,560 --> 00:46:59,839
Speaker 1: egregious rub. At this point, it's obviously more than a rub.

991
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:03,719
Speaker 1: Housing costs, you know, rent is so expensive to try

992
00:47:03,760 --> 00:47:06,000
Speaker 1: to become a homeowner, which is really.

993
00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:06,879
Speaker 4: The bedrock of that.

994
00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:09,279
Speaker 1: I've got my nest egg, I'm going to be able

995
00:47:09,320 --> 00:47:11,360
Speaker 1: to hand something down to my kids. I'm going to

996
00:47:11,440 --> 00:47:14,319
Speaker 1: be okay through good times in bad. You know, it's

997
00:47:14,520 --> 00:47:19,480
Speaker 1: just become so impossible to be able to put your

998
00:47:19,480 --> 00:47:21,719
Speaker 1: foot on that ladder of home ownership.

999
00:47:21,880 --> 00:47:22,840
Speaker 4: So who can blame?

1000
00:47:22,880 --> 00:47:26,080
Speaker 1: I mean, they're right, right, they are correct that it

1001
00:47:26,200 --> 00:47:29,760
Speaker 1: is very possible now to work hard, play by the rules,

1002
00:47:30,040 --> 00:47:32,400
Speaker 1: go to college, and then what then You're saddled with

1003
00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:35,560
Speaker 1: a mountain of debt and your dreams of home ownership

1004
00:47:35,600 --> 00:47:38,600
Speaker 1: are only getting further and further and further away as

1005
00:47:38,719 --> 00:47:42,360
Speaker 1: the housing prices go up year after year after year.

1006
00:47:42,880 --> 00:47:46,239
Speaker 1: So there is a you know, we're we're and then

1007
00:47:46,280 --> 00:47:50,439
Speaker 1: you couple on top of that reality just this, you know,

1008
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:54,400
Speaker 1: the vibes that we're in a declining empire and our

1009
00:47:54,400 --> 00:47:57,120
Speaker 1: best days are behind us, yea, And that's where how

1010
00:47:57,160 --> 00:47:59,560
Speaker 1: you end up with a chart like this now to me,

1011
00:47:59,719 --> 00:48:01,840
Speaker 1: just to to touch on the political point that you

1012
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:07,440
Speaker 1: were making, this is an undersold part everyone talks about. Obviously,

1013
00:48:07,560 --> 00:48:10,000
Speaker 1: Joe Biden is so old, and the debate and there's

1014
00:48:10,080 --> 00:48:14,040
Speaker 1: disaster and feeble all that is really the most important part.

1015
00:48:14,400 --> 00:48:17,560
Speaker 1: But this is I think an undersold part of why

1016
00:48:17,640 --> 00:48:21,800
Speaker 1: it was so beneficial to ditch Joe Biden and pick

1017
00:48:21,920 --> 00:48:26,840
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris because she has not shouldered the blame of,

1018
00:48:27,160 --> 00:48:31,160
Speaker 1: you know, the of incumbency, so she has the benefits

1019
00:48:31,239 --> 00:48:33,680
Speaker 1: of people being able to see her in the role

1020
00:48:34,160 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 1: and the confidence she appears to have gained on the

1021
00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:42,920
Speaker 1: job without being saddled with the status quo, unhappy legacy

1022
00:48:43,560 --> 00:48:46,560
Speaker 1: of you know, Joe Biden or whoever the incombent president

1023
00:48:46,600 --> 00:48:48,719
Speaker 1: would be at this point. And I think that is

1024
00:48:48,719 --> 00:48:53,400
Speaker 1: an undersold advantage for her because she does have the

1025
00:48:53,440 --> 00:48:56,920
Speaker 1: ability and I think has successfully claimed the mantle of

1026
00:48:57,120 --> 00:49:01,040
Speaker 1: the change candidate from Donald Trump. And part of her

1027
00:49:01,080 --> 00:49:03,520
Speaker 1: campaign theme is like, we're not going back to that,

1028
00:49:03,680 --> 00:49:05,640
Speaker 1: you know, the ugliness of the Trump era and all

1029
00:49:05,719 --> 00:49:07,960
Speaker 1: that crap that, you know, this era of politics that

1030
00:49:08,040 --> 00:49:10,000
Speaker 1: many of us want to be done with. We're not

1031
00:49:10,080 --> 00:49:13,400
Speaker 1: going back to that. So, you know, in a certain sense,

1032
00:49:13,600 --> 00:49:18,239
Speaker 1: she's sort of ideally positioned by having been able to

1033
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:19,560
Speaker 1: be in the role and people be able to see

1034
00:49:19,600 --> 00:49:21,799
Speaker 1: her in the role but not being saddled with the

1035
00:49:21,840 --> 00:49:25,560
Speaker 1: burden of actually inhabiting the presidential office.

1036
00:49:25,560 --> 00:49:27,280
Speaker 3: That's the only way she has a fighting chance, period.

1037
00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:29,840
Speaker 2: And if I Trump wins or if Kamalo wins, ironically,

1038
00:49:29,880 --> 00:49:31,279
Speaker 2: a lot of it will actually come down to this,

1039
00:49:31,440 --> 00:49:33,719
Speaker 2: because it will be whether people see Trump as a

1040
00:49:33,760 --> 00:49:36,080
Speaker 2: change candidate or if people see Trump as a status

1041
00:49:36,160 --> 00:49:37,799
Speaker 2: quo chaos candidate and one.

1042
00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:39,400
Speaker 4: Of his status quo and chaos.

1043
00:49:39,480 --> 00:49:41,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean that is a choice.

1044
00:49:41,239 --> 00:49:43,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, part of the whole Trump case under

1045
00:49:43,120 --> 00:49:45,680
Speaker 2: the Biden era was what, oh mean, all you had

1046
00:49:45,719 --> 00:49:47,640
Speaker 2: to worry about was mean tweets. And there's something to

1047
00:49:47,719 --> 00:49:49,520
Speaker 2: that which is like all you had to worry about

1048
00:49:49,840 --> 00:49:53,080
Speaker 2: was some dumb ass media controversy or like the current

1049
00:49:53,160 --> 00:49:57,240
Speaker 2: parsing of like was he allowed a camera at the Arlington.

1050
00:49:56,840 --> 00:49:57,719
Speaker 3: Cemetery or not.

1051
00:49:58,040 --> 00:50:00,400
Speaker 2: I'm like, I don't know, maybe, but the whole point

1052
00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:04,160
Speaker 2: is like parsing all of those details as opposed to, hey,

1053
00:50:04,160 --> 00:50:07,200
Speaker 2: what was the housing price, what was the inflation, stock market, etc.

1054
00:50:07,719 --> 00:50:11,719
Speaker 2: Whereas nowadays the Kamala people, which is interesting. You know,

1055
00:50:11,840 --> 00:50:15,720
Speaker 2: under Biden, this the Arlington thing is a good example,

1056
00:50:15,800 --> 00:50:18,720
Speaker 2: they would have been obsessed with this. You know, Biden

1057
00:50:18,800 --> 00:50:22,440
Speaker 2: himself was obsessed with that my opinion, bs Atlantic story

1058
00:50:22,680 --> 00:50:27,120
Speaker 2: about the whole suckers and losers or whatever you know,

1059
00:50:27,200 --> 00:50:29,759
Speaker 2: based on the word of John Kelly or somebody else

1060
00:50:29,960 --> 00:50:32,680
Speaker 2: like that, and they made it a cornerstone of a

1061
00:50:32,760 --> 00:50:36,759
Speaker 2: Hilary esque decency our children are watching now. Don't get

1062
00:50:36,760 --> 00:50:39,440
Speaker 2: me wrong, there is a flavor of that to Kamala

1063
00:50:39,480 --> 00:50:42,640
Speaker 2: Harris whenever she gives it. Whenever she gave her speech

1064
00:50:43,160 --> 00:50:46,600
Speaker 2: for example, or sometimes in terms of democratic media. But

1065
00:50:46,719 --> 00:50:49,920
Speaker 2: the general vibe I have seen from her is to

1066
00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:52,120
Speaker 2: like roll your eyes at a lot of the Trump

1067
00:50:52,200 --> 00:50:55,520
Speaker 2: era controversies and other things like that of the past,

1068
00:50:55,560 --> 00:50:57,239
Speaker 2: and just say, Okay, we're not going to focus on

1069
00:50:57,280 --> 00:51:00,400
Speaker 2: that this whole quote, We're not going back. And you know,

1070
00:51:00,440 --> 00:51:03,120
Speaker 2: this is also where Biden being on vacation is so helpful.

1071
00:51:03,880 --> 00:51:05,560
Speaker 2: By the way, if anyone wants to check in on

1072
00:51:05,600 --> 00:51:08,000
Speaker 2: the president, he's actually on the beach right now in Rehoboth.

1073
00:51:08,360 --> 00:51:10,319
Speaker 3: Must be a nice job. It was on vacation in

1074
00:51:10,320 --> 00:51:10,960
Speaker 3: Santa Clara.

1075
00:51:11,080 --> 00:51:13,240
Speaker 2: There's a photo of him yesterday hanging out with Jill's

1076
00:51:13,239 --> 00:51:15,560
Speaker 2: friends on the beach. I'm like, yeah, if you weren't

1077
00:51:15,600 --> 00:51:17,360
Speaker 2: the president, that would be fine. That's probably what you

1078
00:51:17,400 --> 00:51:20,840
Speaker 2: should have been doing this entire time. But Biden's literally

1079
00:51:20,880 --> 00:51:25,200
Speaker 2: just sitting there doing nothing. He will apparently be on

1080
00:51:25,239 --> 00:51:28,279
Speaker 2: the campaign trail, I think with Kama in the state

1081
00:51:28,320 --> 00:51:31,879
Speaker 2: of Pennsylvania, I believe next week. But that's the only

1082
00:51:32,040 --> 00:51:34,719
Speaker 2: joint of campaign appearance that they have scheduled right now

1083
00:51:34,760 --> 00:51:35,160
Speaker 2: so far.

1084
00:51:35,680 --> 00:51:39,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean, I listen, Like I said before,

1085
00:51:39,719 --> 00:51:43,239
Speaker 1: I'm beginning to become convinced that actually the election may

1086
00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:48,280
Speaker 1: be more straightforward then I've been portraying at this point,

1087
00:51:48,320 --> 00:51:50,439
Speaker 1: but there's a lot of twist and turns to come.

1088
00:51:50,520 --> 00:51:53,600
Speaker 1: And this data is certainly like, you know, this hangs

1089
00:51:53,640 --> 00:51:57,040
Speaker 1: over it in a very profound way that people are

1090
00:51:57,080 --> 00:51:59,800
Speaker 1: just generally unhappy with the direction of the country. And

1091
00:52:01,239 --> 00:52:03,600
Speaker 1: the Trump campaign will be spending a lot of money

1092
00:52:03,800 --> 00:52:07,719
Speaker 1: to persuade voters that they should saddle Kamway Harris with

1093
00:52:07,840 --> 00:52:09,960
Speaker 1: the way they felt about the Joe Biden presidency.

1094
00:52:10,080 --> 00:52:11,680
Speaker 4: And you know, there's a chance that could work.

1095
00:52:11,680 --> 00:52:14,200
Speaker 2: I think so credit card debt all time high, household

1096
00:52:14,200 --> 00:52:17,399
Speaker 2: bendattes sheet is all time high. Costs are very very high.

1097
00:52:17,400 --> 00:52:20,200
Speaker 2: The home ownership piece is very very difficult.

1098
00:52:21,000 --> 00:52:21,200
Speaker 3: You know.

1099
00:52:21,280 --> 00:52:23,759
Speaker 2: The interesting thing that overlays all of this is kind

1100
00:52:23,760 --> 00:52:27,239
Speaker 2: of the social conversation because that's where we saw I mean,

1101
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:29,759
Speaker 2: if anything, it was way worse than twenty twenty two,

1102
00:52:29,840 --> 00:52:32,160
Speaker 2: because that's where Biden was the president. There was not

1103
00:52:32,360 --> 00:52:35,560
Speaker 2: I mean, it was the inflation was so in your

1104
00:52:35,600 --> 00:52:40,239
Speaker 2: face and so skyrocketing. Immigration situation I was, you know,

1105
00:52:40,400 --> 00:52:43,560
Speaker 2: just as bad then, but even more like like.

1106
00:52:43,680 --> 00:52:46,040
Speaker 4: There were more numbers of the numbers.

1107
00:52:45,719 --> 00:52:49,279
Speaker 2: That were both more in real time, but Also, it

1108
00:52:49,320 --> 00:52:52,919
Speaker 2: was a very shocking difference compared to just the last year.

1109
00:52:53,000 --> 00:52:55,120
Speaker 2: And that was also the mid the whole like blue

1110
00:52:55,160 --> 00:52:58,879
Speaker 2: state freak out amongst migrants being flown in fust here.

1111
00:52:59,000 --> 00:53:00,399
Speaker 3: But anyway, I mean, what we.

1112
00:53:00,360 --> 00:53:05,560
Speaker 2: Saw is that social issues can trump these economic issues.

1113
00:53:05,600 --> 00:53:07,360
Speaker 2: And that's why I just come down to I'm like,

1114
00:53:07,440 --> 00:53:09,920
Speaker 2: I really wonder what people are going to prioritize at

1115
00:53:09,920 --> 00:53:12,520
Speaker 2: the ballot box, but I know when abortion is there,

1116
00:53:12,600 --> 00:53:15,200
Speaker 2: it's a problem. That's actually one thing that a lot

1117
00:53:15,239 --> 00:53:18,279
Speaker 2: of us are discounting is this Florida amendment which is

1118
00:53:18,320 --> 00:53:20,680
Speaker 2: on the books. So now, do I think Democrats are

1119
00:53:20,680 --> 00:53:24,320
Speaker 2: going to win Florida. No, But DeSantis wanted by twenty

1120
00:53:24,360 --> 00:53:26,879
Speaker 2: points or something like that. I mean, if Trump only

1121
00:53:26,920 --> 00:53:28,480
Speaker 2: wins by three or four.

1122
00:53:28,480 --> 00:53:30,279
Speaker 4: But I think this last time Trump did only win

1123
00:53:30,320 --> 00:53:30,759
Speaker 4: by three or.

1124
00:53:30,719 --> 00:53:32,319
Speaker 3: Fo you know he did, I'm saying this time right.

1125
00:53:32,320 --> 00:53:35,239
Speaker 2: Oh, So, amidst the major realignment that's happened, all the

1126
00:53:35,280 --> 00:53:39,200
Speaker 2: massive inflow, the fact that it's effectively became a red state,

1127
00:53:39,280 --> 00:53:43,080
Speaker 2: but I'm really curious to see what that Florida abortion

1128
00:53:43,320 --> 00:53:47,400
Speaker 2: amendment vote does to overall Democratic turnout in the state

1129
00:53:47,480 --> 00:53:48,040
Speaker 2: of Florida.

1130
00:53:48,080 --> 00:53:53,040
Speaker 1: There's a number of states that have abortion related ballid initiatives.

1131
00:53:53,280 --> 00:53:55,720
Speaker 1: I feel like the Arizona one might have gotten pulled.

1132
00:53:55,760 --> 00:53:58,040
Speaker 1: Actually have to double check. There was some court case

1133
00:53:58,080 --> 00:54:00,760
Speaker 1: about whether or not it actually should be on the ballot,

1134
00:54:00,760 --> 00:54:02,319
Speaker 1: But there are a number of swing states that have

1135
00:54:02,400 --> 00:54:07,239
Speaker 1: abortion initiatives on the ballot, and so but you know,

1136
00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:11,600
Speaker 1: just to go back to the housing thing, I'm surprised

1137
00:54:11,719 --> 00:54:15,120
Speaker 1: how much Kamala Harris has leaned into housing in her

1138
00:54:15,160 --> 00:54:19,080
Speaker 1: messaging as well, because we've been talking about how that

1139
00:54:19,200 --> 00:54:22,440
Speaker 1: lean was wide open and it's such a pain point,

1140
00:54:22,920 --> 00:54:25,200
Speaker 1: and so the fact that she's leaning into that and

1141
00:54:25,200 --> 00:54:27,600
Speaker 1: talking a lot about it in her ads, I think

1142
00:54:27,760 --> 00:54:31,359
Speaker 1: is you know, I think it's intelligent and potentially consequential,

1143
00:54:31,920 --> 00:54:35,560
Speaker 1: understated in terms of the level of pain and just

1144
00:54:35,560 --> 00:54:39,680
Speaker 1: how central that is to people's lives. But as I

1145
00:54:39,719 --> 00:54:42,560
Speaker 1: was saying before, to me, maybe the most astonishing numbers

1146
00:54:42,560 --> 00:54:46,160
Speaker 1: we've seen in the polls are pulling even with Trump

1147
00:54:46,200 --> 00:54:49,520
Speaker 1: in terms of economic who do you trust on the economy,

1148
00:54:49,560 --> 00:54:52,359
Speaker 1: Because even outside of Donald Trump, the businessman, et cetera,

1149
00:54:52,400 --> 00:54:56,800
Speaker 1: et cetera, Republicans typically have an advantage on that number.

1150
00:54:57,320 --> 00:55:00,399
Speaker 1: And so that's, you know, to me, that's that's quite

1151
00:55:00,400 --> 00:55:03,760
Speaker 1: extraordinary that she's even in the ballpark with him, because

1152
00:55:03,760 --> 00:55:07,560
Speaker 1: that's always been his biggest strength. I think that's been

1153
00:55:07,680 --> 00:55:11,520
Speaker 1: a bigger strength than anti immigrant backlash, even back in

1154
00:55:11,520 --> 00:55:13,760
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen when that was obviously a very hot issue

1155
00:55:13,760 --> 00:55:15,880
Speaker 1: as well. I think that you know, he's a businessman,

1156
00:55:15,920 --> 00:55:17,920
Speaker 1: and he's going to be able to deliver from me personally,

1157
00:55:18,239 --> 00:55:20,759
Speaker 1: has been the most compelling part of his pitch.

1158
00:55:21,200 --> 00:55:23,320
Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about that. Let's turn down to immigration.

1159
00:55:26,160 --> 00:55:29,080
Speaker 2: Let's turn out to some interesting analysis just about where

1160
00:55:29,120 --> 00:55:32,439
Speaker 2: Trump stands with some issues that may put him over

1161
00:55:32,440 --> 00:55:34,920
Speaker 2: the edge, or where he stands unpopular. This one in

1162
00:55:34,960 --> 00:55:37,600
Speaker 2: particular caught my eye. Let's put this up there on

1163
00:55:37,800 --> 00:55:42,120
Speaker 2: the screen. This was Vox analysis recent polling quote suggests

1164
00:55:42,160 --> 00:55:45,200
Speaker 2: that American public opinion on immigration has taken a quote

1165
00:55:45,320 --> 00:55:49,040
Speaker 2: quote sharp right word turn in the last four years.

1166
00:55:49,080 --> 00:55:52,920
Speaker 2: So absolutely fascinating to consider this graph. And also I

1167
00:55:52,960 --> 00:55:54,840
Speaker 2: want to we should talk about this, what happened in

1168
00:55:54,920 --> 00:55:56,960
Speaker 2: nineteen nineties, what was going on?

1169
00:55:57,239 --> 00:55:58,480
Speaker 4: Rash Actually don't know.

1170
00:55:58,600 --> 00:56:01,719
Speaker 1: Oh, I think that's when the biggest surge of like

1171
00:56:02,200 --> 00:56:06,320
Speaker 1: Mexican border crossers in the nineteen nineties. I think in

1172
00:56:06,360 --> 00:56:08,759
Speaker 1: the early nineties. I have to look into it.

1173
00:56:09,640 --> 00:56:10,480
Speaker 3: That's my anyway.

1174
00:56:10,840 --> 00:56:12,480
Speaker 2: So for those who are watching, what we have in

1175
00:56:12,480 --> 00:56:14,880
Speaker 2: front of us is a graph that says the percentage

1176
00:56:14,880 --> 00:56:17,640
Speaker 2: of Americans wanting lower immigration rose from forty one percent

1177
00:56:17,719 --> 00:56:20,640
Speaker 2: last year to fifty five percent, which is now a majority.

1178
00:56:20,880 --> 00:56:23,400
Speaker 2: Where things go back is all the way from Gallup

1179
00:56:23,520 --> 00:56:26,360
Speaker 2: that has been pulling on the question from the nineteen

1180
00:56:26,440 --> 00:56:29,480
Speaker 2: sixties onward. Basically nineteen sixty five, the nineteen sixty five

1181
00:56:29,560 --> 00:56:33,520
Speaker 2: Immigration Naturalization Act is what changed American immigration policy and

1182
00:56:33,560 --> 00:56:36,280
Speaker 2: basically set the norms as to where they are today.

1183
00:56:36,520 --> 00:56:39,960
Speaker 2: It was relatively stable throughout the nineteen seventies up until

1184
00:56:40,040 --> 00:56:42,680
Speaker 2: nineteen eighty, but that is when things began to change.

1185
00:56:42,680 --> 00:56:46,080
Speaker 2: So the decreased number, currently standing at fifty five percent

1186
00:56:46,440 --> 00:56:49,239
Speaker 2: is now back two levels that we saw right after

1187
00:56:49,280 --> 00:56:52,239
Speaker 2: two thousand and one nine to eleven, and then actually

1188
00:56:52,480 --> 00:56:55,560
Speaker 2: near the top of where it actually peaked back in

1189
00:56:55,640 --> 00:56:59,319
Speaker 2: the early nineteen nineties. What's even more interesting is that

1190
00:56:59,360 --> 00:57:03,560
Speaker 2: the increase lest number has precipitously dropped since two thousand

1191
00:57:03,600 --> 00:57:06,720
Speaker 2: and twenty, roughly around the time that Trump was president.

1192
00:57:06,920 --> 00:57:09,160
Speaker 2: And then the keep as is those people who were

1193
00:57:09,200 --> 00:57:13,319
Speaker 2: happy with the status quo policy has also dropped pretty significantly.

1194
00:57:13,360 --> 00:57:16,440
Speaker 2: But the main divergence that has happened is from the

1195
00:57:16,440 --> 00:57:20,600
Speaker 2: Biden presidency onward is the exponential dip and increase in

1196
00:57:20,640 --> 00:57:23,360
Speaker 2: the decrease and the increase number. So we have the

1197
00:57:23,400 --> 00:57:27,280
Speaker 2: decreased number there spiking from below thirty percent in back

1198
00:57:27,320 --> 00:57:29,919
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty all the way up to fifty five,

1199
00:57:30,200 --> 00:57:33,800
Speaker 2: and the increased number significantly dropping from above thirty.

1200
00:57:33,520 --> 00:57:36,080
Speaker 3: Percent down to just sixteen percent today.

1201
00:57:36,160 --> 00:57:38,840
Speaker 2: And so this does remain, i mean, probably the single

1202
00:57:39,240 --> 00:57:43,160
Speaker 2: most best issue for Donald Trump, and where the divergence

1203
00:57:43,360 --> 00:57:46,040
Speaker 2: kind of stands and is a reflection both of the

1204
00:57:46,080 --> 00:57:49,240
Speaker 2: Biden presidency of I think of the current I mean

1205
00:57:49,360 --> 00:57:53,600
Speaker 2: obviously different situation in terms of how things are at

1206
00:57:53,600 --> 00:57:54,080
Speaker 2: the border.

1207
00:57:54,280 --> 00:57:55,480
Speaker 3: And it just comes down to.

1208
00:57:55,440 --> 00:58:00,120
Speaker 2: A question of will this issue, you know, will will

1209
00:58:00,160 --> 00:58:03,320
Speaker 2: this issue be able to get Republicans to compete with

1210
00:58:03,400 --> 00:58:06,800
Speaker 2: frankly better numbers for Democrats on abortion? And that that

1211
00:58:06,920 --> 00:58:09,440
Speaker 2: is where I always caution my Republican friends. They're like,

1212
00:58:09,560 --> 00:58:12,280
Speaker 2: guys are winning on immigration by fifty or sixty percent.

1213
00:58:12,320 --> 00:58:14,280
Speaker 2: I go, yo, dude, the dams are winning on abortion

1214
00:58:14,360 --> 00:58:16,880
Speaker 2: by like seventy eight percent. You know, it's like it's

1215
00:58:16,960 --> 00:58:19,600
Speaker 2: like it's not just a majority, it's a super majority

1216
00:58:19,880 --> 00:58:22,680
Speaker 2: where those people stand. But I mean, nonetheless, that's stunning

1217
00:58:22,800 --> 00:58:25,080
Speaker 2: data that's inarguable.

1218
00:58:24,760 --> 00:58:26,680
Speaker 4: We put a backup on the SPA are something kind

1219
00:58:26,680 --> 00:58:28,640
Speaker 4: of funny that I want to point out, which is

1220
00:58:28,680 --> 00:58:33,200
Speaker 4: that so if you look at twenty twenty, that's like

1221
00:58:33,280 --> 00:58:35,280
Speaker 4: the peak of you actually have a.

1222
00:58:35,160 --> 00:58:38,480
Speaker 1: Brief moment there where the line of the number of

1223
00:58:38,480 --> 00:58:42,360
Speaker 1: people who want immigration to increase is higher than the

1224
00:58:42,400 --> 00:58:45,200
Speaker 1: one for you know, people who want it to decrease.

1225
00:58:45,760 --> 00:58:52,160
Speaker 1: So very ironically, Donald Trump made immigrants way more popular

1226
00:58:52,520 --> 00:58:54,520
Speaker 1: and immigration way more popular.

1227
00:58:54,600 --> 00:58:56,240
Speaker 3: Were just in negative polarization.

1228
00:58:56,360 --> 00:59:00,120
Speaker 1: Well, I think that's exactly it actually is. To me,

1229
00:59:00,760 --> 00:59:04,400
Speaker 1: this chart and the dramatic shift reflects two things, one

1230
00:59:04,400 --> 00:59:06,960
Speaker 1: more than the other. One is the reality that there

1231
00:59:06,960 --> 00:59:11,520
Speaker 1: are more border crossers. And I think significantly the fact

1232
00:59:11,520 --> 00:59:13,760
Speaker 1: that you had these you know, the blue state bussing,

1233
00:59:13,800 --> 00:59:16,520
Speaker 1: so that it was in these cities and creating a

1234
00:59:16,600 --> 00:59:18,840
Speaker 1: genuine like you know, in terms of being able to

1235
00:59:18,840 --> 00:59:20,840
Speaker 1: have the services available on them, money that.

1236
00:59:20,800 --> 00:59:21,840
Speaker 4: Needed to be spent, etc.

1237
00:59:22,280 --> 00:59:24,320
Speaker 1: Like it was in people's faces in a way that

1238
00:59:24,520 --> 00:59:28,120
Speaker 1: was that you couldn't look away from right. But I

1239
00:59:28,160 --> 00:59:31,080
Speaker 1: actually think more important to that because a lot of

1240
00:59:31,120 --> 00:59:33,760
Speaker 1: people don't actually think for themselves, they just follow wherever

1241
00:59:33,760 --> 00:59:36,320
Speaker 1: their tribe is going. Is that Back in the Trump era,

1242
00:59:36,520 --> 00:59:40,560
Speaker 1: you had a Democratic Party that was staunchly oppositional to

1243
00:59:40,680 --> 00:59:43,400
Speaker 1: his immigration policy and his whole way of talking about

1244
00:59:43,440 --> 00:59:46,680
Speaker 1: and thinking about immigration as just being a net negative.

1245
00:59:47,080 --> 00:59:48,280
Speaker 4: And now you don't have that.

1246
00:59:48,760 --> 00:59:52,600
Speaker 1: So when you have both Democrats and Republicans agreeing on

1247
00:59:52,680 --> 00:59:56,760
Speaker 1: a hawkish immigration approach, then their partisans are going to

1248
00:59:56,920 --> 00:59:58,960
Speaker 1: agree with their party leaders that we should have a

1249
00:59:59,040 --> 01:00:02,680
Speaker 1: hawkish immigration approach. And so, like I said, I think

1250
01:00:02,720 --> 01:00:07,480
Speaker 1: it's multifaceted. But to me this is very self serving,

1251
01:00:07,640 --> 01:00:09,920
Speaker 1: but it sort of validates the point I've been making

1252
01:00:10,360 --> 01:00:14,240
Speaker 1: of Yeah, when you have the Democratic Party or the

1253
01:00:14,240 --> 01:00:17,800
Speaker 1: center left party just agreeing with the right wing party

1254
01:00:17,840 --> 01:00:21,680
Speaker 1: on immigration, then you increase the power of that of

1255
01:00:21,720 --> 01:00:25,320
Speaker 1: that issue for your opponent, not for yourself, because no

1256
01:00:25,360 --> 01:00:27,640
Speaker 1: one is going no one who thinks, you know, we

1257
01:00:27,680 --> 01:00:29,400
Speaker 1: should be and this is their number one issue. More

1258
01:00:29,440 --> 01:00:31,680
Speaker 1: hawkish on immigration is going to vote for Kamala Harris.

1259
01:00:32,120 --> 01:00:34,800
Speaker 1: So that's what I see going on that chart. They

1260
01:00:35,000 --> 01:00:37,919
Speaker 1: the negative polarization thing I think is a. Really it's

1261
01:00:37,920 --> 01:00:40,040
Speaker 1: not the only thing, but I think it's a very

1262
01:00:40,120 --> 01:00:42,640
Speaker 1: key part of the story of how you end up

1263
01:00:42,680 --> 01:00:45,640
Speaker 1: with those lines dramatically shifting. You have a lot of

1264
01:00:45,640 --> 01:00:47,920
Speaker 1: Democrats than in the Trump era, when the party was

1265
01:00:48,080 --> 01:00:50,040
Speaker 1: you know, doing their high school Spanish on stage and

1266
01:00:50,080 --> 01:00:52,920
Speaker 1: speaking about immigrants and how we needed more immigrants, and

1267
01:00:53,200 --> 01:00:56,440
Speaker 1: you know, and very oppositional to the cruel policies of

1268
01:00:56,480 --> 01:00:58,800
Speaker 1: Trump on the border. They were opposed to that, and

1269
01:00:58,840 --> 01:01:01,240
Speaker 1: they thought more immigrants good for the country. And then

1270
01:01:01,240 --> 01:01:04,560
Speaker 1: when the Democratic Party under Joe Biden flips and now

1271
01:01:04,640 --> 01:01:06,720
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris is like, yes to the border wall, and

1272
01:01:06,760 --> 01:01:09,680
Speaker 1: I want to do you know, a border security package

1273
01:01:09,720 --> 01:01:12,080
Speaker 1: that doesn't include a pathway to citizenship, which is a

1274
01:01:12,200 --> 01:01:15,040
Speaker 1: break in the way that Democrats have always approached this issue.

1275
01:01:15,560 --> 01:01:19,240
Speaker 1: You end up with Democratic partisans, you know, agreeing effectively

1276
01:01:19,280 --> 01:01:21,200
Speaker 1: with the case that Trump has been making for years.

1277
01:01:21,240 --> 01:01:22,680
Speaker 2: You could be right, I mean, I do think the

1278
01:01:22,720 --> 01:01:25,880
Speaker 2: reality is also pretty significant. I mean what's also changed

1279
01:01:25,920 --> 01:01:28,200
Speaker 2: is even on the policy merits. For example, you know,

1280
01:01:28,280 --> 01:01:31,000
Speaker 2: than the same article they have mass deportation is now

1281
01:01:31,120 --> 01:01:34,640
Speaker 2: supported by some sixty two percent of all registered voters.

1282
01:01:34,680 --> 01:01:38,800
Speaker 2: Fifty three percent actually amongst Hispanic registered or yeah, Hispanic

1283
01:01:38,840 --> 01:01:41,760
Speaker 2: registered voters. So and that's mass deportation. That is as

1284
01:01:41,960 --> 01:01:44,800
Speaker 2: you know, hawkish as you could possibly get. The big

1285
01:01:44,840 --> 01:01:47,800
Speaker 2: difference is about the priority, and that is where people

1286
01:01:47,840 --> 01:01:50,640
Speaker 2: who care about immigration by and large, like they are

1287
01:01:50,760 --> 01:01:55,360
Speaker 2: really they are Republicans. So, for example, Republicans are more

1288
01:01:55,480 --> 01:01:59,360
Speaker 2: likely to prioritize immigration by a massive number compared to

1289
01:01:59,400 --> 01:02:00,400
Speaker 2: the rest of the electorate.

1290
01:02:00,440 --> 01:02:02,520
Speaker 3: Refer Republicans, it's a forty eight percent.

1291
01:02:02,600 --> 01:02:05,720
Speaker 2: It's the top issue for independence twenty five, for Democrats

1292
01:02:05,800 --> 01:02:08,120
Speaker 2: just eight. So you can see it's a huge difference

1293
01:02:08,120 --> 01:02:10,280
Speaker 2: in priority. And it's something that we've been talking a

1294
01:02:10,280 --> 01:02:14,320
Speaker 2: lot about throughout this whole show, which is what do like,

1295
01:02:14,400 --> 01:02:16,439
Speaker 2: what are voters, what's going to be at the top

1296
01:02:16,520 --> 01:02:19,160
Speaker 2: of mind. It used to be a genuine rule that

1297
01:02:19,240 --> 01:02:21,200
Speaker 2: economy is the top of the mind. We know that's

1298
01:02:21,240 --> 01:02:23,960
Speaker 2: not true from twenty twenty two, from recent evidence, and

1299
01:02:24,000 --> 01:02:26,720
Speaker 2: in fact, if we think back through history, there have

1300
01:02:26,800 --> 01:02:29,560
Speaker 2: been social elections before. It's just been a very long

1301
01:02:29,600 --> 01:02:32,080
Speaker 2: time since any of us have seen them, just because

1302
01:02:32,120 --> 01:02:35,040
Speaker 2: the parties in general, especially post Row, were really locked

1303
01:02:35,080 --> 01:02:38,880
Speaker 2: into a consensus. Probably the best you know example is

1304
01:02:39,160 --> 01:02:42,240
Speaker 2: going all the way back to the eighteen nineties and

1305
01:02:42,280 --> 01:02:45,400
Speaker 2: to think about all of the massive divide that America

1306
01:02:45,440 --> 01:02:47,640
Speaker 2: had on Jim Crow and basically the treatment of black

1307
01:02:47,680 --> 01:02:50,520
Speaker 2: Americans and how it should look. That's where a lot

1308
01:02:50,520 --> 01:02:53,880
Speaker 2: of Southern populism comes from. A lot of realignment politics

1309
01:02:53,920 --> 01:02:56,280
Speaker 2: happened back in that time and actually at very similar

1310
01:02:56,320 --> 01:02:59,160
Speaker 2: levels of a very high voter engagement, where when people

1311
01:02:59,160 --> 01:03:01,360
Speaker 2: care about social issue, they care a lot and they

1312
01:03:01,360 --> 01:03:03,800
Speaker 2: are willing to basically vote only on that. Not an

1313
01:03:03,840 --> 01:03:06,520
Speaker 2: accident that also coincided with the Gilded Age, when people

1314
01:03:06,560 --> 01:03:09,480
Speaker 2: were very distracted from economic issues. So I think there's

1315
01:03:09,520 --> 01:03:12,880
Speaker 2: a lot of rhyming that's happening there. The immigration issue.

1316
01:03:13,000 --> 01:03:16,840
Speaker 2: It's really interesting just to think about how that will

1317
01:03:16,840 --> 01:03:19,800
Speaker 2: be at the forefront of people's minds on top of

1318
01:03:20,080 --> 01:03:23,520
Speaker 2: some of the economic stuff, because immigration inextricably is obviously

1319
01:03:23,560 --> 01:03:26,440
Speaker 2: is linked from economic policy, but is also divergent in

1320
01:03:26,520 --> 01:03:29,360
Speaker 2: terms of the way that Republicans and Democrats look at it. So,

1321
01:03:29,400 --> 01:03:31,520
Speaker 2: for example, if you ask a lot of Republican voters

1322
01:03:31,560 --> 01:03:34,120
Speaker 2: what the cure to many economic problems is, they actually

1323
01:03:34,120 --> 01:03:36,800
Speaker 2: point to immigration as a number one solution, whereas actually

1324
01:03:36,880 --> 01:03:40,240
Speaker 2: very different when we look at democratic social policy. So

1325
01:03:40,360 --> 01:03:44,720
Speaker 2: actually some of the interesting stuff here doesn't just stay

1326
01:03:44,760 --> 01:03:47,360
Speaker 2: with immigration, also goes to tariff. So let's put this

1327
01:03:47,480 --> 01:03:50,320
Speaker 2: up there for example on the screen. This was an

1328
01:03:50,400 --> 01:03:53,600
Speaker 2: interesting New York Times kind of side by side piece

1329
01:03:54,000 --> 01:03:56,640
Speaker 2: about how Trump inherents have a quote stark parts and

1330
01:03:56,720 --> 01:04:00,919
Speaker 2: divide on fighting poverty. Immigration is obviously a key part

1331
01:04:00,960 --> 01:04:02,720
Speaker 2: of that. But if we look at some of the

1332
01:04:02,800 --> 01:04:05,400
Speaker 2: other issues that we see here, there is a big

1333
01:04:05,520 --> 01:04:08,720
Speaker 2: change in terms of the child tax credit, which we've

1334
01:04:08,720 --> 01:04:10,360
Speaker 2: seen previously. I think we've talked about it a lot

1335
01:04:10,360 --> 01:04:10,959
Speaker 2: here on the show.

1336
01:04:11,080 --> 01:04:11,360
Speaker 3: What is It?

1337
01:04:11,400 --> 01:04:14,000
Speaker 2: Kamala supports a six thousand dollars child tax credit policy.

1338
01:04:14,520 --> 01:04:16,080
Speaker 2: We're not exactly sure where Trump stands.

1339
01:04:16,160 --> 01:04:16,360
Speaker 14: Jd.

1340
01:04:16,480 --> 01:04:18,160
Speaker 2: Vance has been on the record say he supports a

1341
01:04:18,200 --> 01:04:21,400
Speaker 2: five thousand dollars child tax credit policy. Where Republicans stand

1342
01:04:21,440 --> 01:04:23,640
Speaker 2: on this issue, I'll let you guess where that is.

1343
01:04:23,680 --> 01:04:24,800
Speaker 2: I think we can judge.

1344
01:04:24,560 --> 01:04:26,760
Speaker 4: By the record of how they have voted in the Senate,

1345
01:04:26,800 --> 01:04:27,800
Speaker 4: which is against yes.

1346
01:04:27,880 --> 01:04:30,480
Speaker 2: All right, So if we think about if we think

1347
01:04:30,520 --> 01:04:33,760
Speaker 2: about tariffs, that has actually been an interesting one.

1348
01:04:33,800 --> 01:04:35,240
Speaker 3: Do you weigh on any of this Before I get

1349
01:04:35,280 --> 01:04:36,400
Speaker 3: to the tariffstop.

1350
01:04:35,920 --> 01:04:37,360
Speaker 4: Go ahead and talk about tariffs, then I can talk

1351
01:04:37,360 --> 01:04:37,960
Speaker 4: about the whole thing.

1352
01:04:38,000 --> 01:04:41,360
Speaker 2: So, so tariff's actually has been I'm curious to what you

1353
01:04:41,360 --> 01:04:44,560
Speaker 2: think because under the Biden administration a huge portion of

1354
01:04:44,600 --> 01:04:46,640
Speaker 2: the tariffs were kept in place most of the time,

1355
01:04:46,680 --> 01:04:49,400
Speaker 2: which I support. By the way, I'm very supportive of tariffs,

1356
01:04:49,440 --> 01:04:52,360
Speaker 2: but I've seen a retrenchment since Kamala has become the candidate.

1357
01:04:52,600 --> 01:04:56,000
Speaker 2: Everyone's like Trump wants to increase prices because of tariffs.

1358
01:04:56,200 --> 01:05:00,520
Speaker 2: And there was a test exchange here actually between NBC

1359
01:05:00,600 --> 01:05:03,360
Speaker 2: Meet the Press and Jade Vance has been very supportive

1360
01:05:03,360 --> 01:05:06,120
Speaker 2: of tariff's basically a supporter of the Trump policy. Here

1361
01:05:06,200 --> 01:05:07,360
Speaker 2: was the exchange they got into.

1362
01:05:07,600 --> 01:05:10,320
Speaker 14: Now, the estimates vary, But how do you respond to

1363
01:05:10,360 --> 01:05:13,560
Speaker 14: that charge that Trump's tariffs would hurt the middle class?

1364
01:05:13,880 --> 01:05:15,600
Speaker 15: Yeah, so if you step back a little bit Christian,

1365
01:05:15,680 --> 01:05:17,960
Speaker 15: there's this whole thing that Kamala Harris did at the

1366
01:05:18,000 --> 01:05:20,320
Speaker 15: convention where she made a bunch of claims about what

1367
01:05:20,400 --> 01:05:24,320
Speaker 15: would happen and not enough actually reflection on what already happened. Right,

1368
01:05:24,360 --> 01:05:27,440
Speaker 15: because Donald Trump was already president, he used tariffs to

1369
01:05:27,480 --> 01:05:29,840
Speaker 15: bring manufacturing jobs back to our country, and I think

1370
01:05:29,840 --> 01:05:32,080
Speaker 15: he'll do it again, and he did it while keeping

1371
01:05:32,120 --> 01:05:34,480
Speaker 15: prices extremely low. Because if you go back to the

1372
01:05:34,520 --> 01:05:37,760
Speaker 15: Trump presidency, we had twelve thousand factories that were built

1373
01:05:37,800 --> 01:05:41,560
Speaker 15: during Donald Trump's presidency, Inflation never really ticked above two percent.

1374
01:05:41,640 --> 01:05:45,320
Speaker 15: His entire administration, in fact, was sort of around one

1375
01:05:45,320 --> 01:05:46,640
Speaker 15: and a half percent most of the time that he

1376
01:05:46,680 --> 01:05:49,400
Speaker 15: was president. So when Kamala Harris says, if we do

1377
01:05:49,520 --> 01:05:51,440
Speaker 15: the thing that Trump already did, it's going to be

1378
01:05:51,480 --> 01:05:53,280
Speaker 15: way worse than it was last time, I just don't

1379
01:05:53,280 --> 01:05:54,360
Speaker 15: think that makes a lot of sense.

1380
01:05:54,440 --> 01:05:57,800
Speaker 14: Well, let's talk about Trump's record during his first term.

1381
01:05:57,840 --> 01:06:02,080
Speaker 14: He didn't pose rounds of terror and it cost Americans

1382
01:06:02,120 --> 01:06:07,080
Speaker 14: nearly eighty billion dollars in new taxes. Do you acknowledge

1383
01:06:07,280 --> 01:06:11,480
Speaker 14: that imposing more tariffs will ultimately cost consumers?

1384
01:06:11,600 --> 01:06:14,760
Speaker 15: Well, what it really does is it penalizes importers from

1385
01:06:14,760 --> 01:06:17,240
Speaker 15: bringing goods outside the country into the country. And I

1386
01:06:17,280 --> 01:06:19,480
Speaker 15: think that's just a necessary thing. We know that China

1387
01:06:19,520 --> 01:06:22,400
Speaker 15: and a number of other countries are using effectively slave

1388
01:06:22,480 --> 01:06:24,640
Speaker 15: labor to undercut the wages of American workers.

1389
01:06:24,840 --> 01:06:26,400
Speaker 3: Donald Trump thinks that has to stop.

1390
01:06:26,480 --> 01:06:28,440
Speaker 15: And again, and what Kama here is saying, Kristin is

1391
01:06:28,440 --> 01:06:30,480
Speaker 15: that if you do this, you're somehow going to cause

1392
01:06:30,520 --> 01:06:31,560
Speaker 15: skyrocketing inflation.

1393
01:06:31,920 --> 01:06:33,880
Speaker 3: In reality, Donald Trump already did it.

1394
01:06:33,920 --> 01:06:35,680
Speaker 15: He brought a lot of jobs back and it didn't

1395
01:06:35,680 --> 01:06:36,680
Speaker 15: cause inflation.

1396
01:06:36,360 --> 01:06:39,280
Speaker 14: But it caused consumers to pay more. They paid more

1397
01:06:39,280 --> 01:06:42,120
Speaker 14: in taxes eighty billion dollars worth. Do you acknowledge that

1398
01:06:42,200 --> 01:06:46,240
Speaker 14: consumers ultimately will pay more if.

1399
01:06:46,080 --> 01:06:47,160
Speaker 4: There are more tariffs?

1400
01:06:47,400 --> 01:06:49,080
Speaker 14: So economists, you just acknowledge that.

1401
01:06:49,200 --> 01:06:51,480
Speaker 15: No, I don't, Christian, because I think economists really disagree

1402
01:06:51,480 --> 01:06:53,960
Speaker 15: about the effects of teriffs, because there can be a

1403
01:06:54,040 --> 01:06:57,400
Speaker 15: dynamic effect. Right, So what some economists will say is

1404
01:06:57,680 --> 01:06:59,720
Speaker 15: what you just said, that it will actually raise costs

1405
01:06:59,720 --> 01:07:02,160
Speaker 15: for cons But what other people say, and I think

1406
01:07:02,200 --> 01:07:05,520
Speaker 15: the record supports what this other view, is that it

1407
01:07:05,600 --> 01:07:09,160
Speaker 15: causes this dynamic effect where more jobs come into the country.

1408
01:07:09,640 --> 01:07:12,400
Speaker 15: Anything that you lose on the tariff from the perspective

1409
01:07:12,400 --> 01:07:15,160
Speaker 15: of the consumer, you gain in higher wages, so you're

1410
01:07:15,280 --> 01:07:16,560
Speaker 15: ultimately much better off.

1411
01:07:16,880 --> 01:07:19,480
Speaker 2: I have been very interested to see there's been an

1412
01:07:20,240 --> 01:07:24,160
Speaker 2: interesting retrenchment, I guess, on the democratic side of being

1413
01:07:24,200 --> 01:07:26,920
Speaker 2: anti tariff, despite the fact that Biden actually was very

1414
01:07:26,960 --> 01:07:28,880
Speaker 2: supportive of tariffs while he was in office.

1415
01:07:29,040 --> 01:07:31,120
Speaker 4: So here's what I would say.

1416
01:07:31,160 --> 01:07:33,240
Speaker 1: So let me talk about the politics and then we

1417
01:07:33,280 --> 01:07:35,400
Speaker 1: talk about the reality of the policy. So I think

1418
01:07:35,480 --> 01:07:38,600
Speaker 1: tariffs are broadly pretty popular. I just saw some pulling,

1419
01:07:38,840 --> 01:07:42,600
Speaker 1: you know, in general, like having tariffs is associated with

1420
01:07:42,640 --> 01:07:46,000
Speaker 1: the idea of bringing back manufacturing jobs, especially popular in

1421
01:07:46,040 --> 01:07:49,360
Speaker 1: the old industrial Midwestern states. I think it's like a

1422
01:07:49,400 --> 01:07:52,880
Speaker 1: sixty forty issue basically. So the politics of it, I

1423
01:07:52,880 --> 01:07:56,560
Speaker 1: think are fine. What I would say is I was

1424
01:07:56,600 --> 01:08:00,120
Speaker 1: supportive of the tariff trumpet put into place, and I

1425
01:08:00,160 --> 01:08:03,640
Speaker 1: was supportive of Biden keeping and even expanding those tariffs,

1426
01:08:03,640 --> 01:08:06,920
Speaker 1: and of the industrial policy in the Biden era in general.

1427
01:08:06,960 --> 01:08:10,840
Speaker 1: You know, really trying to aggressively bring chips manufacturing here

1428
01:08:10,960 --> 01:08:13,840
Speaker 1: in particular has been a real push. Trying to protect

1429
01:08:13,920 --> 01:08:17,519
Speaker 1: our burgeoning EV industry I also think has been very important.

1430
01:08:18,439 --> 01:08:22,719
Speaker 1: But when you're talking about those policies, what you're talking

1431
01:08:22,760 --> 01:08:26,280
Speaker 1: about is identifying some key industries.

1432
01:08:26,280 --> 01:08:28,519
Speaker 4: Where it is critical that.

1433
01:08:28,400 --> 01:08:32,600
Speaker 1: We have domestic manufacturing capability, or a key industry like

1434
01:08:32,680 --> 01:08:35,400
Speaker 1: EV's where your sense is, Okay, this is where the

1435
01:08:35,400 --> 01:08:37,240
Speaker 1: world is going, and we want to have a piece

1436
01:08:37,240 --> 01:08:41,799
Speaker 1: of it applying and across the board. Ten or twenty

1437
01:08:41,840 --> 01:08:47,479
Speaker 1: percent tariff, I frankly think is insane. Now, it's not

1438
01:08:47,560 --> 01:08:50,519
Speaker 1: the case as the you know, some will argue that

1439
01:08:50,680 --> 01:08:52,439
Speaker 1: all of that cost is going to get pushed on

1440
01:08:52,439 --> 01:08:54,800
Speaker 1: to consumers, but it is the case that some of

1441
01:08:54,840 --> 01:08:58,040
Speaker 1: it definitely will. And when you think about like evs

1442
01:08:58,080 --> 01:09:00,880
Speaker 1: are a good example. For example, a lot of the

1443
01:09:01,240 --> 01:09:04,800
Speaker 1: parts that go into those vehicles come from they come

1444
01:09:04,800 --> 01:09:08,639
Speaker 1: from Canada, they come from overseas, So now you're making

1445
01:09:08,800 --> 01:09:14,000
Speaker 1: inputs on these finished goods much more expensive. And there

1446
01:09:14,040 --> 01:09:16,519
Speaker 1: are also certain things that like, you know, where it's

1447
01:09:16,640 --> 01:09:19,240
Speaker 1: really important we have chips manufacturing here. It would have

1448
01:09:19,280 --> 01:09:21,240
Speaker 1: been really important for us to have you know, the

1449
01:09:21,280 --> 01:09:25,120
Speaker 1: medical supplies during COVID manufactured here. There are other things like,

1450
01:09:25,200 --> 01:09:29,000
Speaker 1: for example, coffee we don't make here, and I don't

1451
01:09:29,000 --> 01:09:31,120
Speaker 1: see any reason for us to grow coffee beans.

1452
01:09:31,160 --> 01:09:34,400
Speaker 4: So we grew coffee and yet in Hawaii, and true that's.

1453
01:09:34,200 --> 01:09:36,479
Speaker 1: Going to be you know, there's going to be an

1454
01:09:36,520 --> 01:09:40,720
Speaker 1: added ten percent import tax on coffee too. So I

1455
01:09:40,760 --> 01:09:44,000
Speaker 1: don't think that it's you know, a disconnect or retrenchment

1456
01:09:44,120 --> 01:09:46,639
Speaker 1: or whatever to say it makes sense to have certain

1457
01:09:46,640 --> 01:09:50,439
Speaker 1: industries that you target. It is insane, especially at this

1458
01:09:50,520 --> 01:09:54,160
Speaker 1: point in time when inflation and cost increase is the

1459
01:09:54,240 --> 01:09:56,479
Speaker 1: number one concern, which is different, by the way, from

1460
01:09:56,479 --> 01:09:58,479
Speaker 1: where they were in twenty sixteen when they were initially

1461
01:09:58,520 --> 01:10:02,479
Speaker 1: pushing this policy. It is insane to just have an

1462
01:10:02,640 --> 01:10:06,519
Speaker 1: across the board tariff policy. And the other thing that

1463
01:10:06,560 --> 01:10:10,120
Speaker 1: I would say is the evidence that JD. Van's is

1464
01:10:10,120 --> 01:10:12,800
Speaker 1: citing that that Trump brought a bunch of manufacturing it's

1465
01:10:13,439 --> 01:10:15,960
Speaker 1: not really true. In fact, Biden has brought more manufacturing

1466
01:10:16,040 --> 01:10:19,080
Speaker 1: jobs back than Trump did. The increase in manufacturing jobs

1467
01:10:19,120 --> 01:10:21,439
Speaker 1: across the Trump era, and I'm just talking about up

1468
01:10:21,439 --> 01:10:23,519
Speaker 1: to COVID, because I don't think it's fair to judge

1469
01:10:23,560 --> 01:10:25,400
Speaker 1: him for like the you know, the loss during COVID,

1470
01:10:25,439 --> 01:10:27,920
Speaker 1: But if you just look up to COVID, it was

1471
01:10:27,960 --> 01:10:30,040
Speaker 1: the same rate of increase that you saw during the

1472
01:10:30,040 --> 01:10:34,840
Speaker 1: Obama administration, and you had eighteen hundred factories that disappeared

1473
01:10:35,120 --> 01:10:38,200
Speaker 1: during the Trump administration. So, like I said, I'm not

1474
01:10:38,240 --> 01:10:40,960
Speaker 1: opposed to tariffs when they're smartly applied, but to do

1475
01:10:41,040 --> 01:10:43,559
Speaker 1: it across the board is going to raise prices at

1476
01:10:43,560 --> 01:10:46,040
Speaker 1: a time when that is the number one issue for potimers.

1477
01:10:46,240 --> 01:10:50,840
Speaker 1: And just one more thing on that. You know, with Trump,

1478
01:10:50,880 --> 01:10:53,519
Speaker 1: it's very hard to know if he means what he says,

1479
01:10:53,760 --> 01:10:54,360
Speaker 1: it's very hard.

1480
01:10:55,120 --> 01:10:55,639
Speaker 4: It's very hard.

1481
01:10:55,720 --> 01:10:57,720
Speaker 1: This is an area where he's most likely means what

1482
01:10:57,760 --> 01:11:01,080
Speaker 1: he says. But like on the mass deportation thing, are

1483
01:11:01,120 --> 01:11:04,040
Speaker 1: you really going to round up twelve fifteen million people

1484
01:11:04,120 --> 01:11:06,479
Speaker 1: and throw them in camps and all the expense and

1485
01:11:06,600 --> 01:11:07,799
Speaker 1: you know everything that.

1486
01:11:07,640 --> 01:11:09,800
Speaker 4: That would entail. Are you really going to do that?

1487
01:11:09,840 --> 01:11:11,280
Speaker 1: But that's what he claims he's going to do, and

1488
01:11:11,320 --> 01:11:14,439
Speaker 1: he claims he's going to reduce legal immigration. That policy

1489
01:11:14,479 --> 01:11:18,120
Speaker 1: is also insane, just in terms to put the morality.

1490
01:11:17,680 --> 01:11:20,360
Speaker 4: Of it aside. Okay, you have something.

1491
01:11:20,080 --> 01:11:24,520
Speaker 1: Like a quarter of the construction industry is undocumented immigrants,

1492
01:11:25,479 --> 01:11:30,200
Speaker 1: half more than half of the agriculture industry is immigrants,

1493
01:11:30,280 --> 01:11:32,479
Speaker 1: and a significant chunk of that I think around thirty

1494
01:11:32,479 --> 01:11:37,599
Speaker 1: percent is undocumented immigrants. So maybe in the fullness of time,

1495
01:11:37,640 --> 01:11:39,920
Speaker 1: Although keep in mind that labor force participation is very

1496
01:11:40,000 --> 01:11:42,120
Speaker 1: high and unemployment is very low, so you don't have

1497
01:11:42,200 --> 01:11:45,679
Speaker 1: a lot of native born workers just sitting around waiting

1498
01:11:45,720 --> 01:11:49,080
Speaker 1: for jobs right now. The impact of that policy also

1499
01:11:49,520 --> 01:11:54,000
Speaker 1: is an insane spike in prices. So you know, again,

1500
01:11:54,040 --> 01:11:56,519
Speaker 1: on the politics of it, I think he's fine. I

1501
01:11:56,520 --> 01:11:59,360
Speaker 1: think he's on perfectly fine ground. With how the public

1502
01:11:59,360 --> 01:12:03,360
Speaker 1: will perceive these policies if you were to actually implement them,

1503
01:12:03,680 --> 01:12:06,479
Speaker 1: I think they would be an utter, incomplete catastrophe, and

1504
01:12:06,520 --> 01:12:10,160
Speaker 1: you would see very significant inflation that people in food

1505
01:12:10,200 --> 01:12:14,080
Speaker 1: prices and an even greater construction slow down and in

1506
01:12:14,120 --> 01:12:16,799
Speaker 1: housing prices. That would be very, very very unpopular.

1507
01:12:16,880 --> 01:12:18,519
Speaker 2: Right, So on the ten percent thing, first of all,

1508
01:12:18,560 --> 01:12:20,680
Speaker 2: it's not going to happen, so it doesn't even necessarily

1509
01:12:20,720 --> 01:12:22,240
Speaker 2: bear you know, like looking at me.

1510
01:12:22,360 --> 01:12:24,120
Speaker 4: So this was the thing that he actually, No, No,

1511
01:12:24,200 --> 01:12:24,639
Speaker 4: I think.

1512
01:12:24,479 --> 01:12:24,960
Speaker 3: He believes it.

1513
01:12:25,000 --> 01:12:26,680
Speaker 2: But yeah, you don't have the legal authority to put

1514
01:12:26,680 --> 01:12:29,400
Speaker 2: a ten percent tariff on everything, although I don't think

1515
01:12:29,439 --> 01:12:31,040
Speaker 2: it would be the worst idea in the world. Now,

1516
01:12:31,240 --> 01:12:35,120
Speaker 2: that's where I've just significantly disagree, because a ten percent

1517
01:12:35,200 --> 01:12:39,160
Speaker 2: tariff already we have a far too globalized economy. Even

1518
01:12:39,240 --> 01:12:41,120
Speaker 2: the vast majority of the imports exports that we have

1519
01:12:41,200 --> 01:12:45,080
Speaker 2: from Mexico and from Canada. Mexico is our largest trading partner,

1520
01:12:45,160 --> 01:12:48,200
Speaker 2: almost entirely because they have cheap labor and because people

1521
01:12:48,360 --> 01:12:50,920
Speaker 2: like to use that as an arbitrage opportunity. Will it

1522
01:12:51,000 --> 01:12:53,160
Speaker 2: lead to higher prices in the short term, I won't

1523
01:12:53,200 --> 01:12:56,160
Speaker 2: deny it. It probably will Now will it lead to

1524
01:12:56,200 --> 01:13:00,160
Speaker 2: better and more manufacturing investment in the United States, Absolutely,

1525
01:13:00,240 --> 01:13:03,080
Speaker 2: and especially if you change things on the tax code

1526
01:13:03,200 --> 01:13:04,720
Speaker 2: with a lot of what Joe Biden did, where you

1527
01:13:04,720 --> 01:13:07,200
Speaker 2: had tariff put in place and then you use tax

1528
01:13:07,240 --> 01:13:10,679
Speaker 2: credits and other strategic investment to actually direct a lot

1529
01:13:10,720 --> 01:13:14,240
Speaker 2: of the revenue into building things here in the United States.

1530
01:13:14,320 --> 01:13:15,800
Speaker 3: So that's one number number one.

1531
01:13:15,880 --> 01:13:18,439
Speaker 2: Like in terms of the actual tariff policy, legally, the

1532
01:13:18,439 --> 01:13:20,280
Speaker 2: way that you're able to put it in place was

1533
01:13:20,280 --> 01:13:22,559
Speaker 2: something called three to ZHO one. That's the way that

1534
01:13:22,640 --> 01:13:24,639
Speaker 2: Donald Trump put it in place. That's what Joe Biden

1535
01:13:25,000 --> 01:13:29,560
Speaker 2: used as well. That's largely going to be national security strategic.

1536
01:13:29,640 --> 01:13:32,559
Speaker 2: That's how they were able to apply it to steal Legally,

1537
01:13:32,600 --> 01:13:34,439
Speaker 2: that's the only way it's ever going to happen because

1538
01:13:34,479 --> 01:13:37,439
Speaker 2: Congress will never you know, apply a quote ten percent tariff,

1539
01:13:37,439 --> 01:13:38,880
Speaker 2: although again, you know, I don't think it would be

1540
01:13:38,960 --> 01:13:41,479
Speaker 2: the worst idea in the world, especially if we were

1541
01:13:41,479 --> 01:13:43,840
Speaker 2: to apply it to let's say, you know, all of

1542
01:13:43,880 --> 01:13:47,120
Speaker 2: the countries where we have a trade deficit. That's another

1543
01:13:47,160 --> 01:13:49,519
Speaker 2: where where look, I understand the economists are going to

1544
01:13:49,520 --> 01:13:52,920
Speaker 2: get upset about this stuff that factory and you know,

1545
01:13:53,040 --> 01:13:56,120
Speaker 2: manufacturing stuff. I don't think it's necessarily fair just because

1546
01:13:56,120 --> 01:13:59,799
Speaker 2: this stuff takes over a decade to materialize. So for example,

1547
01:14:00,200 --> 01:14:03,320
Speaker 2: investment in others can be announced but not even implemented

1548
01:14:03,360 --> 01:14:05,400
Speaker 2: on a five to a ten year period. I mean,

1549
01:14:05,400 --> 01:14:07,479
Speaker 2: for you know, if you look at the Chips Act,

1550
01:14:07,479 --> 01:14:09,240
Speaker 2: if you were to judge the Chips Act on a

1551
01:14:09,280 --> 01:14:11,240
Speaker 2: short term basis, but a failure because there's a ton

1552
01:14:11,280 --> 01:14:13,360
Speaker 2: of money out and there's no new job created. But

1553
01:14:13,760 --> 01:14:15,800
Speaker 2: you know, ten years from now, what are we going

1554
01:14:15,880 --> 01:14:18,040
Speaker 2: to say, probably was a good idea, was a good

1555
01:14:18,040 --> 01:14:20,719
Speaker 2: investment and even though it cost a lot of money

1556
01:14:20,840 --> 01:14:23,200
Speaker 2: in the short term. So that's another area where terriffs

1557
01:14:23,200 --> 01:14:25,200
Speaker 2: makes sense. You know, even on ev and all that,

1558
01:14:25,760 --> 01:14:28,640
Speaker 2: when do we think about Canada and Mexico and the

1559
01:14:28,680 --> 01:14:31,519
Speaker 2: way that they have undermined our auto industry. There's great

1560
01:14:31,560 --> 01:14:35,000
Speaker 2: reason where even if we're not national strategy national security,

1561
01:14:35,640 --> 01:14:38,240
Speaker 2: what is it like we're allies and we're not adversaries,

1562
01:14:38,400 --> 01:14:41,160
Speaker 2: while we still don't necessarily have a strategic interest and

1563
01:14:41,240 --> 01:14:45,240
Speaker 2: having so much of a critical industry be outside of

1564
01:14:45,280 --> 01:14:47,800
Speaker 2: the country. So that's just on the tariff part specifically.

1565
01:14:47,800 --> 01:14:50,840
Speaker 2: Now on immigration. Now again though this just gets to

1566
01:14:50,880 --> 01:14:53,320
Speaker 2: the tariff question, where it's like that is frankly in

1567
01:14:53,320 --> 01:14:55,439
Speaker 2: a very neoliberal argument. It's like, oh, well, prices are

1568
01:14:55,439 --> 01:14:57,040
Speaker 2: going to go up. I'm like, okay, yeah, you're right.

1569
01:14:57,120 --> 01:14:59,479
Speaker 2: I mean, that's true, they will probably go up in

1570
01:14:59,520 --> 01:15:02,519
Speaker 2: the short term. I think most people support that, or

1571
01:15:02,880 --> 01:15:06,080
Speaker 2: most people who support the policy are very understanding of that.

1572
01:15:06,160 --> 01:15:08,519
Speaker 2: Have they grappled with the total reality of what it

1573
01:15:08,520 --> 01:15:12,640
Speaker 2: would look like. No, but people want like an actual

1574
01:15:12,760 --> 01:15:15,240
Speaker 2: process through which people who don't just get to come

1575
01:15:15,280 --> 01:15:17,920
Speaker 2: here and work illegally. I mean, when you tell me

1576
01:15:17,960 --> 01:15:21,759
Speaker 2: there's thirty percent of the agricultural industry is an illegal workforce,

1577
01:15:21,800 --> 01:15:24,559
Speaker 2: that's nuts. And that's obviously just means that illegal immigration

1578
01:15:24,680 --> 01:15:27,519
Speaker 2: is a massive corporate subsidy. And Okay, even on the

1579
01:15:27,560 --> 01:15:30,160
Speaker 2: labor force participation rate, yea, the labor force or petition

1580
01:15:30,240 --> 01:15:32,880
Speaker 2: rate participation rate is still somewhere in the sixties, which

1581
01:15:32,920 --> 01:15:35,360
Speaker 2: means that's a huge percentage of the workforce not working.

1582
01:15:35,560 --> 01:15:38,400
Speaker 2: But then two, if you support a higher wage, this

1583
01:15:38,520 --> 01:15:41,479
Speaker 2: is the easiest way to force these companies like Tyson's,

1584
01:15:41,520 --> 01:15:43,960
Speaker 2: Purdue and all these others to actually have to pay

1585
01:15:44,280 --> 01:15:47,120
Speaker 2: workers a much higher wage. And if you combine it

1586
01:15:47,160 --> 01:15:50,480
Speaker 2: with an industrial policy, which again I support, many Republicans

1587
01:15:50,520 --> 01:15:50,760
Speaker 2: do not.

1588
01:15:51,280 --> 01:15:53,559
Speaker 3: There are a lot of different ways to come out

1589
01:15:53,560 --> 01:15:53,760
Speaker 3: of this.

1590
01:15:54,040 --> 01:15:56,840
Speaker 2: At the same time, on the mass deportation policy, even

1591
01:15:56,920 --> 01:15:58,080
Speaker 2: people like by the.

1592
01:15:58,000 --> 01:15:59,759
Speaker 3: Way, I heavily support mass deportation.

1593
01:16:00,080 --> 01:16:04,120
Speaker 2: But the issue, as I know is most people understand

1594
01:16:04,160 --> 01:16:06,960
Speaker 2: that emotionally and all that it's probably not going to

1595
01:16:06,960 --> 01:16:10,600
Speaker 2: happen in any way. Just for look, Trump buckled on

1596
01:16:10,680 --> 01:16:14,320
Speaker 2: child separation, They buckled on the vast majority of the

1597
01:16:14,360 --> 01:16:17,640
Speaker 2: policy that they put into place. It's more probably a

1598
01:16:17,680 --> 01:16:20,800
Speaker 2: bargaining chip as to trying to get something done in

1599
01:16:20,800 --> 01:16:24,919
Speaker 2: the first place. But philosophically, there is a philosophical understanding

1600
01:16:24,960 --> 01:16:27,639
Speaker 2: that I saw often during the tariff discussion in twenty

1601
01:16:27,680 --> 01:16:28,479
Speaker 2: sixteen seventeen.

1602
01:16:28,640 --> 01:16:30,000
Speaker 3: I remember watching MSNBC.

1603
01:16:30,120 --> 01:16:31,920
Speaker 2: People would go to a Walmart and they were interviewing

1604
01:16:31,920 --> 01:16:33,639
Speaker 2: people about dryers, and they're like, how do you feel

1605
01:16:33,640 --> 01:16:36,000
Speaker 2: about the fact that this dryer is more expensive because

1606
01:16:36,040 --> 01:16:38,040
Speaker 2: of a tariff that Donald Trump put on China?

1607
01:16:38,040 --> 01:16:39,639
Speaker 3: And they're like, that's fine with me. I don't mind

1608
01:16:39,640 --> 01:16:39,920
Speaker 3: at all.

1609
01:16:40,040 --> 01:16:43,639
Speaker 2: But that sentiment is important, like Americans understand what that means.

1610
01:16:43,720 --> 01:16:47,240
Speaker 1: Sure, And so there's a lot to dig into there.

1611
01:16:48,280 --> 01:16:52,280
Speaker 1: It's one thing when you're like, okay, the cost of

1612
01:16:52,360 --> 01:16:56,000
Speaker 1: dryers has gone up, and actually the cost only went

1613
01:16:56,080 --> 01:16:58,280
Speaker 1: up for a short period of time. Yes, okay, so

1614
01:16:58,320 --> 01:17:00,880
Speaker 1: I want to include the full picture. The cost of

1615
01:17:00,880 --> 01:17:03,720
Speaker 1: a dryer has gone up. It's another thing. And by

1616
01:17:03,760 --> 01:17:06,160
Speaker 1: the way, back in twenty sixteen or twenty seventeen, when

1617
01:17:06,200 --> 01:17:09,320
Speaker 1: inflation was low and that wasn't a major concern for Americans.

1618
01:17:09,320 --> 01:17:12,479
Speaker 1: Now it is the number one concern of Americans. It

1619
01:17:12,600 --> 01:17:16,960
Speaker 1: is another thing to say, you're all of your groceries

1620
01:17:17,040 --> 01:17:19,759
Speaker 1: are going every good that you can buy in the store,

1621
01:17:20,080 --> 01:17:22,439
Speaker 1: the price is going up on what do you think

1622
01:17:22,479 --> 01:17:26,519
Speaker 1: about that? And then the other piece, just to reiterate here,

1623
01:17:26,720 --> 01:17:31,760
Speaker 1: is yes, the CHIPS tariffs and the ev tariffs like

1624
01:17:31,960 --> 01:17:37,280
Speaker 1: that makes sense. These are critical industries that are growth

1625
01:17:37,320 --> 01:17:41,960
Speaker 1: industries for the future. If you put a tariff on everything,

1626
01:17:42,439 --> 01:17:44,439
Speaker 1: a lot of what the US does in terms of

1627
01:17:44,439 --> 01:17:47,719
Speaker 1: manufacturing isn't just creating the raw goods like the steel.

1628
01:17:47,960 --> 01:17:50,320
Speaker 1: And by the way, steel traffs also make sense because

1629
01:17:50,360 --> 01:17:52,600
Speaker 1: we should have a domestic steel industry and that is

1630
01:17:52,680 --> 01:17:55,560
Speaker 1: important to do right, But a lot of the manufacturing

1631
01:17:55,600 --> 01:17:56,960
Speaker 1: here is the higher end.

1632
01:17:57,080 --> 01:17:58,880
Speaker 4: We're creating the finished.

1633
01:17:58,560 --> 01:18:02,960
Speaker 1: Product, you put a tariff on everything across the board.

1634
01:18:03,400 --> 01:18:06,639
Speaker 1: That means all of those inputs, the cost of every

1635
01:18:06,760 --> 01:18:13,799
Speaker 1: single one is going up. Now, maybe theoretically in fifty years,

1636
01:18:13,800 --> 01:18:17,639
Speaker 1: maybe that means there's more domestic manufacturing here, or maybe

1637
01:18:17,640 --> 01:18:20,679
Speaker 1: it just means that those automakers or whoever are making

1638
01:18:20,720 --> 01:18:23,880
Speaker 1: those finished goods move to another country where they can

1639
01:18:23,880 --> 01:18:26,200
Speaker 1: get those inputs cheaper, and then you know where it

1640
01:18:26,240 --> 01:18:28,360
Speaker 1: makes sense for them to sell it back into our

1641
01:18:28,360 --> 01:18:32,160
Speaker 1: market rather than making it here. So even if I,

1642
01:18:32,320 --> 01:18:34,800
Speaker 1: you know, I agree that I do think that the

1643
01:18:35,120 --> 01:18:37,479
Speaker 1: Chips Act and these terrors, I do think that over

1644
01:18:37,520 --> 01:18:39,719
Speaker 1: time they will increase manufacturing those sector.

1645
01:18:39,800 --> 01:18:40,960
Speaker 4: I think they're a good idea.

1646
01:18:41,280 --> 01:18:45,080
Speaker 1: I support that sort of targeted tariff, but when you

1647
01:18:45,120 --> 01:18:48,160
Speaker 1: do it across the board, it's not even clear that

1648
01:18:48,240 --> 01:18:50,400
Speaker 1: you end up with the manufacturing gain that you want.

1649
01:18:50,479 --> 01:18:54,160
Speaker 1: And in the meantime, consumers who are already so stretched

1650
01:18:54,160 --> 01:18:58,280
Speaker 1: on inflation, are being asked to pay dramatic, significantly higher

1651
01:18:58,320 --> 01:19:01,519
Speaker 1: prices across the board. And so, like I said, listen,

1652
01:19:01,800 --> 01:19:05,760
Speaker 1: I think politically tariff's popular, but I think if it

1653
01:19:05,880 --> 01:19:09,280
Speaker 1: was actually implemented, which you know, we should take seriously,

1654
01:19:09,360 --> 01:19:11,160
Speaker 1: what even if you say, Okay, Congress can't do it

1655
01:19:11,240 --> 01:19:13,679
Speaker 1: or whatever, whatever, we should take seriously what he says

1656
01:19:13,720 --> 01:19:16,639
Speaker 1: and what his plans are, and you know, like take

1657
01:19:16,680 --> 01:19:17,360
Speaker 1: it to its life.

1658
01:19:17,400 --> 01:19:19,639
Speaker 2: You'll have more tariffs than we have today, most likely

1659
01:19:19,720 --> 01:19:20,800
Speaker 2: under a Trump presidency.

1660
01:19:20,880 --> 01:19:21,519
Speaker 4: I think if you.

1661
01:19:21,520 --> 01:19:24,320
Speaker 1: Did it across the word, I think people would hate it,

1662
01:19:24,320 --> 01:19:25,920
Speaker 1: and I think I think it would be catastrophe.

1663
01:19:26,000 --> 01:19:29,559
Speaker 4: And you know, also I'll just leave it there.

1664
01:19:29,640 --> 01:19:31,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, well, I would say it's not going to happen,

1665
01:19:31,880 --> 01:19:34,240
Speaker 2: first of all, just because I know how the process works.

1666
01:19:34,280 --> 01:19:37,679
Speaker 3: Quite literally, it's just going to be on steel, on.

1667
01:19:37,680 --> 01:19:40,200
Speaker 2: Food, the way that we have the retaliatory tariffs, all

1668
01:19:40,240 --> 01:19:42,360
Speaker 2: of which I'm totally fine with the Chinese.

1669
01:19:42,360 --> 01:19:44,160
Speaker 3: Can you know whatever, your.

1670
01:19:44,080 --> 01:19:46,200
Speaker 4: Best case for a candidate shouldn't be well, they're not

1671
01:19:46,240 --> 01:19:47,479
Speaker 4: actually going to do what they say.

1672
01:19:47,479 --> 01:19:49,479
Speaker 2: They're going to know if we were going to do that,

1673
01:19:49,560 --> 01:19:51,880
Speaker 2: I would defend it, but I'm saying it's not going

1674
01:19:51,920 --> 01:19:54,160
Speaker 2: to happen. So if we actually look at what the

1675
01:19:54,200 --> 01:19:56,960
Speaker 2: reality is with through the executive branch, you have the

1676
01:19:56,960 --> 01:20:01,360
Speaker 2: best legal authority under the Commerce Department or USTR section

1677
01:20:01,920 --> 01:20:04,479
Speaker 2: or the three to zero one of that, you can

1678
01:20:04,600 --> 01:20:07,040
Speaker 2: use like a national security study. You can designate a

1679
01:20:07,080 --> 01:20:10,400
Speaker 2: certain industry critical to US national security. That's why food

1680
01:20:10,720 --> 01:20:11,720
Speaker 2: and what is it?

1681
01:20:11,800 --> 01:20:12,080
Speaker 4: Food?

1682
01:20:12,280 --> 01:20:12,639
Speaker 3: Steel?

1683
01:20:12,880 --> 01:20:15,360
Speaker 2: Those are the two things that obviously make the most sense.

1684
01:20:15,760 --> 01:20:18,120
Speaker 2: The thing is too, though, is that? And in general

1685
01:20:18,200 --> 01:20:20,400
Speaker 2: why the ten percent figure is not as crazy as

1686
01:20:20,439 --> 01:20:22,560
Speaker 2: people think. Go look at the traft policy of the

1687
01:20:22,560 --> 01:20:26,000
Speaker 2: European Union, Go look at terraff policy of South Korea.

1688
01:20:26,120 --> 01:20:28,680
Speaker 2: Go look at the tariff policy of China. And then,

1689
01:20:28,760 --> 01:20:31,000
Speaker 2: by the way, even if they don't have teriffts, the

1690
01:20:31,080 --> 01:20:35,160
Speaker 2: amount of national support that those companies flagships in those

1691
01:20:35,160 --> 01:20:39,599
Speaker 2: countries receive compared to US is crazy. Volkswagen might as

1692
01:20:39,600 --> 01:20:43,639
Speaker 2: well be a part of the government, like Samsung literally

1693
01:20:43,720 --> 01:20:46,080
Speaker 2: might as well be the South Korean state and in

1694
01:20:46,120 --> 01:20:49,360
Speaker 2: some cases Samsung executives they run the country, not actually

1695
01:20:49,360 --> 01:20:52,240
Speaker 2: the people who are in Korea in Japan, toyota what

1696
01:20:52,360 --> 01:20:55,760
Speaker 2: you think? That's not a literal like they're like ambassadors

1697
01:20:55,880 --> 01:20:58,639
Speaker 2: for the country. It's very different from the way things

1698
01:20:58,720 --> 01:21:00,120
Speaker 2: run here in America to.

1699
01:21:00,240 --> 01:21:02,639
Speaker 1: Be more like that in my opinion, But I don't

1700
01:21:02,640 --> 01:21:04,439
Speaker 1: know if I want corporate leaders run I mean, it's

1701
01:21:04,479 --> 01:21:05,160
Speaker 1: an extept today.

1702
01:21:05,280 --> 01:21:06,719
Speaker 4: Are don't at the moment.

1703
01:21:06,840 --> 01:21:07,439
Speaker 3: But it's a.

1704
01:21:07,439 --> 01:21:09,920
Speaker 2: Little bit different because in those countries the power dynamic

1705
01:21:10,080 --> 01:21:12,160
Speaker 2: is very one way, where the government's like, hey, Samsung,

1706
01:21:12,200 --> 01:21:13,600
Speaker 2: this is what you're gonna do, and they're gonna be like,

1707
01:21:13,640 --> 01:21:15,519
Speaker 2: well this isn't there's like yeah, that's cute, but just

1708
01:21:15,520 --> 01:21:16,920
Speaker 2: so you know, like this is what's happening.

1709
01:21:17,280 --> 01:21:18,960
Speaker 3: Same whenever it comes to China.

1710
01:21:19,080 --> 01:21:21,679
Speaker 2: Now we shouldn't have all of that, but there are

1711
01:21:21,720 --> 01:21:25,360
Speaker 2: aspects which are very important for strategic industry and chips

1712
01:21:25,360 --> 01:21:28,160
Speaker 2: and elsewhere where our lase fair attitude puts us out

1713
01:21:28,200 --> 01:21:32,240
Speaker 2: a major strategic disadvantage. I read a history of TSMC.

1714
01:21:32,479 --> 01:21:35,559
Speaker 2: It's incredible it all could have happened here. The guy

1715
01:21:35,680 --> 01:21:39,679
Speaker 2: Morris Chang, he was here, he left America to create

1716
01:21:39,720 --> 01:21:42,800
Speaker 2: TSMC in Taiwan, and it was just because Taiwan was

1717
01:21:42,840 --> 01:21:45,479
Speaker 2: like here's every dollar that you could possibly want. Yeah,

1718
01:21:45,520 --> 01:21:48,479
Speaker 2: and you know, reading that history, it's it's sad because

1719
01:21:48,520 --> 01:21:51,280
Speaker 2: it's one of those where our lase fare system, our

1720
01:21:51,280 --> 01:21:53,360
Speaker 2: government policy and all that has a lot of advantages

1721
01:21:53,439 --> 01:21:55,840
Speaker 2: small businesses like us, you know, the tax code, but

1722
01:21:55,880 --> 01:21:58,720
Speaker 2: for major strategic industry, where are failures completely.

1723
01:21:58,840 --> 01:22:02,120
Speaker 1: I mean, there's nothing that I disagree with it's just

1724
01:22:02,360 --> 01:22:07,760
Speaker 1: what you're talking about are strategically intelligent, targeted applied tariffs

1725
01:22:08,000 --> 01:22:10,160
Speaker 1: in places that make sense. Just to give one more

1726
01:22:10,200 --> 01:22:12,880
Speaker 1: example of what i'm I use the coffee example. Another

1727
01:22:12,960 --> 01:22:18,200
Speaker 1: example potash, Right, potash is critical.

1728
01:22:17,960 --> 01:22:19,200
Speaker 4: Ingredient for fertilizer.

1729
01:22:20,520 --> 01:22:26,120
Speaker 1: We don't have much or any domestic potash production. So

1730
01:22:26,920 --> 01:22:29,360
Speaker 1: now maybe you say, like that's critical, we should we

1731
01:22:29,360 --> 01:22:31,679
Speaker 1: should focus on that over time, et cetera, et cetera.

1732
01:22:31,760 --> 01:22:34,439
Speaker 1: But if you if you put a tariff on the

1733
01:22:34,479 --> 01:22:38,080
Speaker 1: importation of potash, what that means is all of your.

1734
01:22:37,960 --> 01:22:39,680
Speaker 4: Agricultural prices go up.

1735
01:22:39,680 --> 01:22:41,040
Speaker 1: And then of course, you know, if you talk about

1736
01:22:41,040 --> 01:22:45,040
Speaker 1: immigration and deporting all of the undocumented workers and clamping

1737
01:22:45,080 --> 01:22:47,680
Speaker 1: down so you have even less legal migration than previously,

1738
01:22:48,040 --> 01:22:50,960
Speaker 1: then you're talking about an even greater price hike on

1739
01:22:51,200 --> 01:22:55,960
Speaker 1: all of your agricultural goods. So you know, agreed that

1740
01:22:56,040 --> 01:22:59,000
Speaker 1: there's personally in terms of immigration, obviously, I think there

1741
01:22:59,040 --> 01:23:00,960
Speaker 1: should be a past of citizen. I think those under

1742
01:23:01,000 --> 01:23:03,120
Speaker 1: I think you're right about the way they're exploited, and

1743
01:23:03,160 --> 01:23:06,920
Speaker 1: that's outrageous and that can have a wage impact, certainly

1744
01:23:06,960 --> 01:23:09,080
Speaker 1: when people are being paid under the table because they're

1745
01:23:09,080 --> 01:23:12,839
Speaker 1: not earning the minimum wage. They're not, you know, protected

1746
01:23:12,840 --> 01:23:15,639
Speaker 1: by all the labor protections that add additional costs to labor.

1747
01:23:15,680 --> 01:23:18,240
Speaker 1: I do think that's outrageous. My solution is a pathway

1748
01:23:18,240 --> 01:23:20,840
Speaker 1: to citizenship for those individuals. I think we should have

1749
01:23:21,320 --> 01:23:25,639
Speaker 1: more legal immigration, not less, but you know, putting those

1750
01:23:25,640 --> 01:23:29,479
Speaker 1: things aside. The big three planks of Trump's economic plan

1751
01:23:29,560 --> 01:23:33,880
Speaker 1: are number one across the board tariffs, Number two mass deportation,

1752
01:23:34,320 --> 01:23:38,240
Speaker 1: and number three the extension of the Tax Cut and

1753
01:23:38,280 --> 01:23:40,760
Speaker 1: Jobs Acts, which was the tax cuts that largely went

1754
01:23:40,800 --> 01:23:44,760
Speaker 1: to corporate America. And the two in particular, the immigration

1755
01:23:45,000 --> 01:23:49,240
Speaker 1: crackdown and the tariffs. Both of them in the short term,

1756
01:23:49,240 --> 01:23:50,840
Speaker 1: I don't think you would deny this. Both of them

1757
01:23:50,880 --> 01:23:55,200
Speaker 1: in the short term will spike prices some amount. And

1758
01:23:55,520 --> 01:23:58,880
Speaker 1: it was one thing the economic and political climate at

1759
01:23:58,880 --> 01:24:03,360
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen very different than now when Americans say the

1760
01:24:03,600 --> 01:24:06,599
Speaker 1: number one thing they're concerned about are prices. So that's

1761
01:24:06,680 --> 01:24:09,600
Speaker 1: just my sort of summation of how I'm viewing.

1762
01:24:09,360 --> 01:24:09,720
Speaker 4: All of this.

1763
01:24:09,800 --> 01:24:16,160
Speaker 2: Producers are telling us we're talking too much about fine

1764
01:24:16,960 --> 01:24:20,559
Speaker 2: I'd rather talk about terriffs. Yeah, but that's part of

1765
01:24:20,560 --> 01:24:22,240
Speaker 2: what the beauty to do in the show is, isn't it.

1766
01:24:24,960 --> 01:24:28,000
Speaker 2: Let's get to the indictment counter points and cover this yesterday,

1767
01:24:28,000 --> 01:24:30,000
Speaker 2: but still some pretty big news can't take our eye

1768
01:24:30,000 --> 01:24:33,200
Speaker 2: off the legal drama involving Donald Trump. People will remember

1769
01:24:33,280 --> 01:24:36,680
Speaker 2: there was a Supreme Court ruling which effectively vacated some

1770
01:24:36,760 --> 01:24:39,360
Speaker 2: of the Jack Smith indictment against Donald Trump as related

1771
01:24:39,360 --> 01:24:42,559
Speaker 2: to January sixth. So Jack Smith actually convened a new

1772
01:24:42,600 --> 01:24:45,639
Speaker 2: grand jury and has brought new charges against Trump, which

1773
01:24:45,680 --> 01:24:48,200
Speaker 2: he says are in line with that Supreme Court ruling.

1774
01:24:48,240 --> 01:24:50,680
Speaker 2: Let's put this up there on the screen. The new

1775
01:24:50,720 --> 01:24:54,479
Speaker 2: indictment was actually filed on Tuesday. It includes some of

1776
01:24:54,520 --> 01:24:58,320
Speaker 2: the same criminal charges, but actually narrows the allegations quote

1777
01:24:58,520 --> 01:25:01,559
Speaker 2: in an attempt to comply the Supreme Court ruling that

1778
01:25:01,640 --> 01:25:03,920
Speaker 2: former presidents have brought immunity from prosecution.

1779
01:25:04,280 --> 01:25:06,200
Speaker 3: So in the new indictment, one of.

1780
01:25:06,200 --> 01:25:08,280
Speaker 2: The reasons they had to set do it was because

1781
01:25:08,360 --> 01:25:11,880
Speaker 2: the Supreme Court rule that former presidents quote, are absolutely

1782
01:25:11,920 --> 01:25:16,040
Speaker 2: immune from prosecution for official acts that fall within the

1783
01:25:16,120 --> 01:25:20,599
Speaker 2: exclusive sphere of constitutional authority. So all of the charges

1784
01:25:20,760 --> 01:25:22,680
Speaker 2: have to come from a place where it is not

1785
01:25:22,720 --> 01:25:26,200
Speaker 2: a quote, official act of the presidency. The new indictment

1786
01:25:26,439 --> 01:25:30,200
Speaker 2: does away quote with any reference to Donald Trump's interactions

1787
01:25:30,240 --> 01:25:33,360
Speaker 2: with the Justice Department, whom prosecutors alleged he that he

1788
01:25:33,400 --> 01:25:35,639
Speaker 2: was trying to enlist in his effort to under the election.

1789
01:25:36,000 --> 01:25:38,360
Speaker 2: By doing that, they take it outside the realm of

1790
01:25:38,400 --> 01:25:40,880
Speaker 2: the so called official act and try to kick it

1791
01:25:41,200 --> 01:25:44,679
Speaker 2: into the realm of the political when they were talking

1792
01:25:44,760 --> 01:25:48,000
Speaker 2: both about language, about coercion and about some of the

1793
01:25:48,040 --> 01:25:51,439
Speaker 2: false elector's stuff that was happening under the purview of

1794
01:25:51,479 --> 01:25:55,240
Speaker 2: the campaign. So, for example, the first page of the

1795
01:25:55,320 --> 01:25:58,479
Speaker 2: old indictment refers to Trump as the forty fifth US president.

1796
01:25:58,600 --> 01:26:01,040
Speaker 2: The new indictment only referred to Trump as quote, a

1797
01:26:01,080 --> 01:26:03,799
Speaker 2: candidate for president of the United States in twenty twenty.

1798
01:26:03,960 --> 01:26:07,360
Speaker 2: It also quote deletes all references to any Trump's statement

1799
01:26:07,520 --> 01:26:10,360
Speaker 2: made from the White House, so for example, that January

1800
01:26:10,360 --> 01:26:14,240
Speaker 2: sixth message that was made on Twitter and instead focuses

1801
01:26:14,280 --> 01:26:17,559
Speaker 2: in on the campaign speech at a privately funded, privately

1802
01:26:17,640 --> 01:26:21,360
Speaker 2: organized political rally that occurred on that day. What actually

1803
01:26:21,400 --> 01:26:24,879
Speaker 2: stayed the same is four counts. It's substruction of official proceeding,

1804
01:26:25,920 --> 01:26:30,639
Speaker 2: conspiracy to obstruction official proceeding, conspiracy to defraud the United States,

1805
01:26:30,680 --> 01:26:32,360
Speaker 2: and conspiracy against.

1806
01:26:32,000 --> 01:26:32,920
Speaker 3: The right to vote.

1807
01:26:32,920 --> 01:26:36,320
Speaker 2: So all of those charges they say are within the

1808
01:26:36,360 --> 01:26:38,680
Speaker 2: realm of the Supreme Court ruling. Obviously Trump is going

1809
01:26:38,680 --> 01:26:40,519
Speaker 2: to challenge them, and we're probably going to have to

1810
01:26:40,560 --> 01:26:43,000
Speaker 2: get a new ruling or scrutiny or whatever on this.

1811
01:26:43,160 --> 01:26:45,639
Speaker 2: But at the very least, here's what people can say.

1812
01:26:45,680 --> 01:26:48,000
Speaker 2: It's not none of this has happening before the election.

1813
01:26:48,320 --> 01:26:48,760
Speaker 3: One hundred.

1814
01:26:49,040 --> 01:26:51,160
Speaker 1: This is not going to be a short process. I'm

1815
01:26:51,200 --> 01:26:53,240
Speaker 1: sure it will go back up the chain in terms

1816
01:26:53,320 --> 01:26:55,840
Speaker 1: of appeals and challenges, likely end up back at the

1817
01:26:55,840 --> 01:26:58,200
Speaker 1: Supreme Court with them having to weigh in more specifically.

1818
01:26:58,680 --> 01:27:01,519
Speaker 1: One thing that you might recall from the decision that

1819
01:27:01,560 --> 01:27:05,360
Speaker 1: they issued with regard to presidential immunity is that even

1820
01:27:05,439 --> 01:27:09,040
Speaker 1: the conservatives, some of them issued like dissenting concurrences where

1821
01:27:09,120 --> 01:27:12,480
Speaker 1: you know, they had a different opinion about how immunity

1822
01:27:12,840 --> 01:27:16,400
Speaker 1: would be defined, like which things are actually official responsibilities

1823
01:27:16,400 --> 01:27:18,720
Speaker 1: and which are in your personal capacity. So it's not

1824
01:27:18,760 --> 01:27:22,559
Speaker 1: at all clear exactly how they would create that dividing line,

1825
01:27:22,600 --> 01:27:25,320
Speaker 1: And I mean it's a difficult line to draw. So

1826
01:27:25,880 --> 01:27:28,120
Speaker 1: I think it's entirely likely this ends up back at

1827
01:27:28,120 --> 01:27:31,439
Speaker 1: the Supreme Court. But it's the same for charges. You

1828
01:27:31,479 --> 01:27:34,920
Speaker 1: know that hasn't changed. Some of the details, underlying details

1829
01:27:35,200 --> 01:27:39,240
Speaker 1: have changed. Some of the phrasing emphasizing he's a candidate.

1830
01:27:39,479 --> 01:27:41,200
Speaker 1: You know, this was in his role as a candidate,

1831
01:27:41,439 --> 01:27:44,000
Speaker 1: has nothing to do with his official responsibilities. Some of

1832
01:27:44,000 --> 01:27:47,040
Speaker 1: that has changed as well. But you know, this was

1833
01:27:47,520 --> 01:27:50,519
Speaker 1: separate grand jury, a different grand jury than issue the

1834
01:27:50,680 --> 01:27:57,720
Speaker 1: initial indictment that returned this now superseding indictment. And there

1835
01:27:57,760 --> 01:28:00,000
Speaker 1: was an interesting segment on CNN that we want to

1836
01:28:00,400 --> 01:28:02,719
Speaker 1: highlight for you all. So Ty Cobb, who's like a

1837
01:28:02,760 --> 01:28:06,080
Speaker 1: big shot Washington lawyer, US Trump's lawyer, very well known

1838
01:28:06,120 --> 01:28:09,640
Speaker 1: here and was for a time Trump's lawyer when he

1839
01:28:09,720 --> 01:28:12,320
Speaker 1: was in the White House, he was interviewed on CNN

1840
01:28:12,479 --> 01:28:14,640
Speaker 1: and he was like, these charges are very strong and

1841
01:28:14,680 --> 01:28:18,080
Speaker 1: he's likely to face six to nine years in prison

1842
01:28:18,479 --> 01:28:21,519
Speaker 1: as a result just of this particular case. Let's take

1843
01:28:21,560 --> 01:28:22,639
Speaker 1: a listen to what he had to say.

1844
01:28:22,960 --> 01:28:26,120
Speaker 6: Does this indictment make a clean cut case that the

1845
01:28:26,160 --> 01:28:27,160
Speaker 6: acts were personal?

1846
01:28:28,760 --> 01:28:29,439
Speaker 8: I think it does.

1847
01:28:29,600 --> 01:28:32,920
Speaker 16: I think you know, some of the editing you highlighted

1848
01:28:32,920 --> 01:28:37,160
Speaker 16: in your intro is spot on, emphasizing the private nature

1849
01:28:37,200 --> 01:28:40,720
Speaker 16: of many of these acts, the private funding.

1850
01:28:41,880 --> 01:28:47,360
Speaker 17: Of the speech at the before the Capital intrusion, Prince's

1851
01:28:47,360 --> 01:28:53,120
Speaker 17: ceremonial role, the non government roles of the co conspirators,

1852
01:28:53,160 --> 01:28:56,599
Speaker 17: which they can now say categorically, And now that Jeffrey

1853
01:28:56,640 --> 01:28:58,839
Speaker 17: Clark is out because he was the only government official

1854
01:28:58,880 --> 01:29:03,400
Speaker 17: who was actually in the original indicty's no longer in

1855
01:29:03,400 --> 01:29:03,960
Speaker 17: this indictment.

1856
01:29:03,960 --> 01:29:06,360
Speaker 9: You know, whatever the indictment was going to look like

1857
01:29:06,840 --> 01:29:09,760
Speaker 9: after it went through whatever hearings the judge Chuck is

1858
01:29:09,800 --> 01:29:11,280
Speaker 9: going to have and she still will have a hearing

1859
01:29:11,320 --> 01:29:14,719
Speaker 9: on that it was. This indictment, you know, it does

1860
01:29:14,760 --> 01:29:19,000
Speaker 9: have you know, there is an interlocuatory appeal available at

1861
01:29:19,080 --> 01:29:24,720
Speaker 9: least as I read the Supreme Court decision, and that

1862
01:29:24,760 --> 01:29:26,639
Speaker 9: doesn't mean the Supreme Court has to take it if

1863
01:29:26,640 --> 01:29:29,599
Speaker 9: the DC Circuit acts before and they're content with whatever

1864
01:29:29,600 --> 01:29:32,840
Speaker 9: they do. But this is definitely this has never this

1865
01:29:32,880 --> 01:29:36,839
Speaker 9: hasn't been on course to go before the election for months.

1866
01:29:37,520 --> 01:29:39,599
Speaker 16: This was never going to that was never going to happen.

1867
01:29:39,640 --> 01:29:41,439
Speaker 9: But as you point out, I mean, this is a

1868
01:29:41,560 --> 01:29:42,639
Speaker 9: very forceful document.

1869
01:29:42,680 --> 01:29:43,360
Speaker 3: It's pared down.

1870
01:29:43,400 --> 01:29:46,000
Speaker 16: Every sentence is you know, crisply worded.

1871
01:29:46,120 --> 01:29:47,320
Speaker 17: It's a tight narrative.

1872
01:29:48,280 --> 01:29:50,760
Speaker 9: You can't read this and not understand the crimes that

1873
01:29:50,800 --> 01:29:52,880
Speaker 9: Trump actually committed, and you say, as you pointed out,

1874
01:29:53,280 --> 01:29:55,440
Speaker 9: fifty five years is exposure.

1875
01:29:56,040 --> 01:29:57,360
Speaker 3: He's not going to get fifty five years.

1876
01:29:57,400 --> 01:29:58,639
Speaker 9: But he'll get six.

1877
01:29:58,479 --> 01:30:01,320
Speaker 4: To nine on this, I mean, and it's pretty confident there.

1878
01:30:01,360 --> 01:30:03,519
Speaker 4: I don't know, if you know, I don't know, but

1879
01:30:03,640 --> 01:30:06,880
Speaker 4: six to nine is a lie. Is like he's going

1880
01:30:06,920 --> 01:30:07,719
Speaker 4: to get six to nine.

1881
01:30:07,680 --> 01:30:10,600
Speaker 2: Years helped negotiate on the again. I mean, I just

1882
01:30:10,640 --> 01:30:15,519
Speaker 2: see that so massively unlikely. But listen, he's the.

1883
01:30:15,479 --> 01:30:18,280
Speaker 3: Former Trump attorney, so we should at least take it seriously.

1884
01:30:18,520 --> 01:30:20,280
Speaker 1: The other thing he said that was interesting to me

1885
01:30:20,360 --> 01:30:22,160
Speaker 1: is he was like, Trump's not going to take this

1886
01:30:22,200 --> 01:30:25,920
Speaker 1: seriously until it's like the sentencing happens and it's inescapable

1887
01:30:25,960 --> 01:30:27,880
Speaker 1: and he's headed to ber like, he is not going

1888
01:30:27,880 --> 01:30:31,760
Speaker 1: to take this seriously until it's undeniable, which I thought

1889
01:30:31,800 --> 01:30:34,040
Speaker 1: was just having, you know, the fact that he worked

1890
01:30:34,080 --> 01:30:37,040
Speaker 1: closely with Trump, I thought was an interesting like intellectual

1891
01:30:37,040 --> 01:30:39,040
Speaker 1: insight to the way that Trump approaches.

1892
01:30:38,600 --> 01:30:38,960
Speaker 4: All of this.

1893
01:30:39,080 --> 01:30:39,759
Speaker 3: Certainly true.

1894
01:30:39,880 --> 01:30:43,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, the last thing that I'll mention here, it's a

1895
01:30:43,280 --> 01:30:45,799
Speaker 1: little crazy. I mean, the way we thought this election

1896
01:30:45,880 --> 01:30:47,400
Speaker 1: would go and the way it is actually gone have

1897
01:30:47,479 --> 01:30:49,880
Speaker 1: been two very different things. We really thought, and for

1898
01:30:49,960 --> 01:30:53,920
Speaker 1: good reason, that these trials and his you know, indictments

1899
01:30:53,920 --> 01:30:58,479
Speaker 1: and potential convictions whatever, would be so central to the

1900
01:30:58,920 --> 01:31:01,960
Speaker 1: election season, and it really is such a side note.

1901
01:31:02,400 --> 01:31:03,200
Speaker 4: Now, the one.

1902
01:31:04,960 --> 01:31:06,960
Speaker 1: Thing I will say, you know, the discounter to that

1903
01:31:07,640 --> 01:31:10,080
Speaker 1: is he does have a sentencing date coming up in

1904
01:31:10,120 --> 01:31:13,720
Speaker 1: that Alvin Brade case on September eighteenth, which will reinsert

1905
01:31:13,760 --> 01:31:17,400
Speaker 1: this back into the political conversation. So we'll see what

1906
01:31:17,439 --> 01:31:20,400
Speaker 1: happens there and how significant. I think is very unlikely

1907
01:31:20,479 --> 01:31:23,639
Speaker 1: he ends up with this. It's a relatively minor charge

1908
01:31:23,680 --> 01:31:25,599
Speaker 1: that he was found guilty of. I think it's very

1909
01:31:25,680 --> 01:31:28,439
Speaker 1: unlikely that he would end up facing any prison time

1910
01:31:28,560 --> 01:31:30,720
Speaker 1: over it, but I guess you never know. It is

1911
01:31:30,760 --> 01:31:33,479
Speaker 1: theoretically possible. So we'll see how all of that goes down.

1912
01:31:33,560 --> 01:31:36,439
Speaker 1: But that September eighteenth, that we'll have that sentencing date.

1913
01:31:36,680 --> 01:31:39,320
Speaker 1: There was some push to you know, extend that or

1914
01:31:39,320 --> 01:31:41,240
Speaker 1: push it off for a while, but they are going

1915
01:31:41,280 --> 01:31:41,800
Speaker 1: forward with it.

1916
01:31:41,840 --> 01:31:43,959
Speaker 4: So that's next. So significant Trump.

1917
01:31:43,840 --> 01:31:47,360
Speaker 2: Legal Georgia's past the election. Now this is past the election.

1918
01:31:47,400 --> 01:31:49,439
Speaker 2: I mean the main two ones where he was the

1919
01:31:49,479 --> 01:31:52,519
Speaker 2: most in legal jeopardy are now at the very least past. Also,

1920
01:31:52,560 --> 01:31:54,720
Speaker 2: if he does get elected president, there will be so

1921
01:31:54,880 --> 01:31:58,200
Speaker 2: much considering the Supreme Court ruling and that, you know,

1922
01:31:58,280 --> 01:32:01,840
Speaker 2: all of the circus around that being sitting president and

1923
01:32:01,880 --> 01:32:03,840
Speaker 2: facing some of this, it will be you know, so

1924
01:32:03,960 --> 01:32:06,839
Speaker 2: many novel legal constitutional theories will be tested.

1925
01:32:06,920 --> 01:32:10,080
Speaker 1: Well, this one, in particular is a federal case, so

1926
01:32:10,439 --> 01:32:13,120
Speaker 1: you know, he theoretically can just barn himself on that

1927
01:32:13,200 --> 01:32:16,160
Speaker 1: one and not you know, not face. But and then

1928
01:32:16,200 --> 01:32:18,719
Speaker 1: you also have the question of like a sitting president

1929
01:32:18,720 --> 01:32:22,320
Speaker 1: and being prosecuted, and that's typically been seen as a

1930
01:32:22,360 --> 01:32:25,840
Speaker 1: no no. So yeah, I think him getting elected is

1931
01:32:25,880 --> 01:32:28,360
Speaker 1: probably a get out of jail free card for all

1932
01:32:28,400 --> 01:32:33,320
Speaker 1: of these things, which of course heightens the importance of

1933
01:32:33,360 --> 01:32:35,880
Speaker 1: the election, certainly to the person of Donald J. Trump,

1934
01:32:35,880 --> 01:32:37,679
Speaker 1: who I'm sure would prefer not to go to prison

1935
01:32:37,760 --> 01:32:39,840
Speaker 1: big time. All Right, we have a few updates we

1936
01:32:39,840 --> 01:32:42,800
Speaker 1: wanted to bring in with regard to Israel that are consequential.

1937
01:32:43,040 --> 01:32:45,960
Speaker 1: Could put this up on the screen. Channel thirteen, which

1938
01:32:46,000 --> 01:32:49,120
Speaker 1: is a Hebrew language news outlet, reported this and it

1939
01:32:49,280 --> 01:32:53,360
Speaker 1: seems to be correct. Israel has agreed to a sort

1940
01:32:53,400 --> 01:32:57,599
Speaker 1: of kind of temporary humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza to allow

1941
01:32:57,680 --> 01:33:02,439
Speaker 1: the administration a polio vaccines. The next tweet down from this,

1942
01:33:02,479 --> 01:33:04,000
Speaker 1: which we don't have but I'll just read you it says,

1943
01:33:04,000 --> 01:33:07,519
Speaker 1: first report, Israeli's agreed to Tony Blanken's request to implement

1944
01:33:07,520 --> 01:33:10,519
Speaker 1: a ceasefire and specific areas of Gaza so not the

1945
01:33:10,520 --> 01:33:13,000
Speaker 1: whole thing, not as part of negotiations, but for the

1946
01:33:13,040 --> 01:33:16,519
Speaker 1: purpose of vaccinating the population against polio. Decision was made

1947
01:33:16,560 --> 01:33:19,639
Speaker 1: by Nannial in the Security Establishment. Anya Who's office responded,

1948
01:33:19,680 --> 01:33:21,799
Speaker 1: this is not a truce, but a designation of specific

1949
01:33:21,840 --> 01:33:24,479
Speaker 1: areas in the Gaza Strip for vaccination. The matter has

1950
01:33:24,520 --> 01:33:29,120
Speaker 1: been supported by the ministers and Sagar. This is obviously

1951
01:33:30,600 --> 01:33:33,679
Speaker 1: very significant because of the fact that you have already

1952
01:33:33,760 --> 01:33:38,639
Speaker 1: had polio is supposed to be basically eradicated, and you've

1953
01:33:38,680 --> 01:33:42,960
Speaker 1: already had a baby at ten month old, so has

1954
01:33:43,000 --> 01:33:45,679
Speaker 1: really has known no life outside of this war who

1955
01:33:45,840 --> 01:33:49,439
Speaker 1: was born and died because of polio, And they have

1956
01:33:49,520 --> 01:33:53,599
Speaker 1: been picking up polio in the sewage in the Gaza Strip.

1957
01:33:54,200 --> 01:33:56,599
Speaker 1: So you know, I don't think the Israelis are towing

1958
01:33:56,640 --> 01:33:59,560
Speaker 1: the sound of the goodness of their heart. Their soldiers

1959
01:33:59,640 --> 01:34:02,000
Speaker 1: have to be operating in the Gaza Strip and are

1960
01:34:02,040 --> 01:34:06,320
Speaker 1: also probably concerned about the outbreak that is apparently ongoing

1961
01:34:06,360 --> 01:34:10,880
Speaker 1: a polio in Gaza. So that is what we know

1962
01:34:11,000 --> 01:34:15,519
Speaker 1: about this theoretical temporary partial ceasefire. It was not enough

1963
01:34:15,560 --> 01:34:17,400
Speaker 1: of a ceasefire, apparently, and put this up on the

1964
01:34:17,400 --> 01:34:20,560
Speaker 1: screen to keep them from continuing to target AID vehicles.

1965
01:34:21,280 --> 01:34:24,439
Speaker 1: This is the World Food Program run by the UN

1966
01:34:25,160 --> 01:34:29,000
Speaker 1: temporarily suspended activities surround Gaza after one of its vehicles

1967
01:34:29,120 --> 01:34:33,200
Speaker 1: was hit by at least ten bullets. They went on

1968
01:34:33,240 --> 01:34:35,880
Speaker 1: to say, despite the World Food Program's coordination with Israel

1969
01:34:35,920 --> 01:34:39,240
Speaker 1: and Gaza deconfliction and that its vehicle was marked and

1970
01:34:39,320 --> 01:34:43,080
Speaker 1: cleared by Israeli authorities, it was directly hit by Israeli

1971
01:34:43,120 --> 01:34:46,400
Speaker 1: gunfire as it was moving towards an Israeli army checkpoint.

1972
01:34:46,720 --> 01:34:50,519
Speaker 1: This of course recalls that multiple drone strike on the

1973
01:34:50,560 --> 01:34:53,799
Speaker 1: World Central Kitchen vehicles, and of course the fact saga

1974
01:34:53,840 --> 01:34:58,320
Speaker 1: that we've had hundreds, dozens and many more than one

1975
01:34:58,360 --> 01:35:02,040
Speaker 1: hundred AID workers who have been killed by Israel in

1976
01:35:02,080 --> 01:35:04,439
Speaker 1: this conflict. So you know, at a time when, of

1977
01:35:04,479 --> 01:35:09,880
Speaker 1: course the starvation and overall humanitarian conditions for Palestinians are

1978
01:35:10,040 --> 01:35:13,479
Speaker 1: horrific shape, now you have the World Food Program unable

1979
01:35:13,479 --> 01:35:16,240
Speaker 1: to operate because once again one of their vehicles was targeted.

1980
01:35:16,320 --> 01:35:18,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was really it was actually crazy to see

1981
01:35:18,680 --> 01:35:21,799
Speaker 2: Cindy McCain, who I always think it's ironic is the

1982
01:35:21,840 --> 01:35:25,040
Speaker 2: literal head of the World Food Program, especially because their

1983
01:35:25,120 --> 01:35:26,960
Speaker 2: daughter is probably one of the most pro Israel people

1984
01:35:27,200 --> 01:35:30,400
Speaker 2: that's out there. Anyway, she says, this quote is totally unacceptable,

1985
01:35:30,479 --> 01:35:32,640
Speaker 2: the latest in a series of unnecessary security incidents that

1986
01:35:32,800 --> 01:35:36,000
Speaker 2: endangered the lives of the World Food Program team in Gaza.

1987
01:35:36,080 --> 01:35:39,000
Speaker 2: So overall, the situation in Israel is still quite crazy.

1988
01:35:39,040 --> 01:35:42,160
Speaker 2: I mean, Ryan and Emily covered this yesterday. There's this

1989
01:35:42,280 --> 01:35:45,439
Speaker 2: major west Bank operation which is happening there. The government

1990
01:35:45,800 --> 01:35:48,040
Speaker 2: is also, you know, saying all kinds of crazy stuff.

1991
01:35:48,040 --> 01:35:51,920
Speaker 2: We had this major Lebanon situation, the ceasefire talks.

1992
01:35:51,960 --> 01:35:53,360
Speaker 3: I don't even know where we can Where do we

1993
01:35:53,360 --> 01:35:55,160
Speaker 3: currently stand with that? I don't actually know where.

1994
01:35:54,960 --> 01:35:59,720
Speaker 2: As well, even though yeah, literally basically total limbo. Joe

1995
01:35:59,720 --> 01:36:01,599
Speaker 2: Biden and still at the beach though, so don't worry

1996
01:36:01,600 --> 01:36:05,280
Speaker 2: about that in terms of executing anything in American power,

1997
01:36:06,040 --> 01:36:08,200
Speaker 2: I don't know. It feels like there is a level

1998
01:36:08,200 --> 01:36:11,599
Speaker 2: of stasis that things have reached. It is August twenty ninth,

1999
01:36:11,640 --> 01:36:13,160
Speaker 2: and I was thinking about that. I mean, we're coming

2000
01:36:13,200 --> 01:36:15,760
Speaker 2: up on one year you know, since October seventh, which

2001
01:36:15,800 --> 01:36:20,200
Speaker 2: is genuinely stunning and crazy to consider. But and you know,

2002
01:36:20,439 --> 01:36:22,280
Speaker 2: not only all that it's rot there, but in terms

2003
01:36:22,320 --> 01:36:25,280
Speaker 2: of our politics and foreign policy and the change and

2004
01:36:25,320 --> 01:36:27,720
Speaker 2: what all of that has looked like. But in a

2005
01:36:27,760 --> 01:36:30,519
Speaker 2: certain sense, it does feel like things are both calming

2006
01:36:30,600 --> 01:36:33,839
Speaker 2: down in Gaza but now expanding in terms of Lebanon

2007
01:36:33,880 --> 01:36:34,559
Speaker 2: and the West Bank.

2008
01:36:34,840 --> 01:36:36,240
Speaker 3: That's what it really looks like right now.

2009
01:36:36,479 --> 01:36:39,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, just to go back to that World

2010
01:36:39,680 --> 01:36:42,120
Speaker 1: Central Kitchen things. I was thinking about this, you know,

2011
01:36:42,360 --> 01:36:44,439
Speaker 1: at the time, because this was the outfit associated with

2012
01:36:44,479 --> 01:36:45,240
Speaker 1: Jose Andres.

2013
01:36:45,280 --> 01:36:47,519
Speaker 4: There was a hole. This was a big deal here

2014
01:36:47,560 --> 01:36:47,920
Speaker 4: in d C.

2015
01:36:48,240 --> 01:36:51,160
Speaker 1: People know him personally. He was out giving interviews, speaking out.

2016
01:36:51,479 --> 01:36:54,000
Speaker 1: There was a big focus, you call the triple tapped

2017
01:36:54,040 --> 01:36:56,800
Speaker 1: that vehicle convoy and that was clearly marked. They'd gone

2018
01:36:56,840 --> 01:37:01,240
Speaker 1: through the deconfliction and they made sure that everyone was killed.

2019
01:37:01,560 --> 01:37:03,479
Speaker 1: The survivors would move from one vehicle to the next,

2020
01:37:03,520 --> 01:37:06,200
Speaker 1: and then they would target that vehicle. And so there was

2021
01:37:06,520 --> 01:37:11,519
Speaker 1: massive outrage and yet you know, their calculation was we

2022
01:37:11,560 --> 01:37:15,639
Speaker 1: can let that die down, and it served their ultimate

2023
01:37:15,840 --> 01:37:18,760
Speaker 1: interests of and I mean this is very clear from

2024
01:37:18,800 --> 01:37:21,280
Speaker 1: the way that they've operated the entire time and the

2025
01:37:21,320 --> 01:37:26,680
Speaker 1: public pronouncements they've made about effectively starving Gosins. They succeeded

2026
01:37:26,800 --> 01:37:30,360
Speaker 1: in diminishing the number of aid workers who were able

2027
01:37:30,400 --> 01:37:31,840
Speaker 1: to do the job and the amount of aid that.

2028
01:37:31,840 --> 01:37:32,760
Speaker 4: Could be distributed.

2029
01:37:33,160 --> 01:37:35,839
Speaker 1: And so you know, this is just the latest incident

2030
01:37:35,880 --> 01:37:38,920
Speaker 1: and what has been a successful strategy of making it

2031
01:37:38,960 --> 01:37:42,200
Speaker 1: impossible and deadly to try to distribute and even the

2032
01:37:43,280 --> 01:37:47,360
Speaker 1: wildly inadequate amount of aid that gets into the Gaza

2033
01:37:47,400 --> 01:37:51,120
Speaker 1: stroup also just in a sign of again, I think

2034
01:37:51,280 --> 01:37:55,160
Speaker 1: any society can like I don't think that Israelis as

2035
01:37:55,240 --> 01:37:57,759
Speaker 1: human beings are any different than any other people around

2036
01:37:57,760 --> 01:38:00,760
Speaker 1: the world, but this society, in terms of what they

2037
01:38:00,760 --> 01:38:06,040
Speaker 1: have come to accept and embrace a majority of Jewish Israelis,

2038
01:38:06,120 --> 01:38:10,120
Speaker 1: it is profoundly disturbing the dark things that they now

2039
01:38:10,320 --> 01:38:13,920
Speaker 1: accept an embrace, including We've discussed this incident on camera

2040
01:38:14,520 --> 01:38:17,880
Speaker 1: of gang rape of a Palestinian, documented that this has

2041
01:38:17,880 --> 01:38:20,920
Speaker 1: occurred multiple times, and there was a new poll can

2042
01:38:20,920 --> 01:38:25,479
Speaker 1: put this up on the screen asking how Jewish Israelis

2043
01:38:25,520 --> 01:38:30,920
Speaker 1: want to handle those soldiers who gang raped Palestinian detainees

2044
01:38:31,000 --> 01:38:37,559
Speaker 1: at that prison torture facility. Almost two thirds, sixty five

2045
01:38:37,600 --> 01:38:41,680
Speaker 1: percent of Jewish Israelis say there should be no criminal prosecution.

2046
01:38:42,080 --> 01:38:44,880
Speaker 1: They prefer them to be handled in a disciplinary manner.

2047
01:38:45,040 --> 01:38:49,120
Speaker 1: Only only twenty one percent of Jewish Israelis thought that

2048
01:38:49,160 --> 01:38:53,720
Speaker 1: there should be a criminal trial for gang rape. I

2049
01:38:53,720 --> 01:38:56,240
Speaker 1: don't even know what you say about that. You know,

2050
01:38:56,360 --> 01:39:02,160
Speaker 1: the extremes have clearly taken over, and you can see how,

2051
01:39:02,360 --> 01:39:05,320
Speaker 1: you know, in Bibe's actions and the way he's prosecuted

2052
01:39:05,320 --> 01:39:08,080
Speaker 1: the war, and the way he's really you know, leaned

2053
01:39:08,120 --> 01:39:13,439
Speaker 1: into the Bengevie and Smotrich like literal terrorists, their view

2054
01:39:13,560 --> 01:39:18,040
Speaker 1: of how to prosecute this assault on Palaestudians in the

2055
01:39:18,040 --> 01:39:21,559
Speaker 1: Gaza strip. These are the types of numbers he's responding to,

2056
01:39:22,240 --> 01:39:25,720
Speaker 1: and it has been Politically, it has worked out for him.

2057
01:39:26,080 --> 01:39:28,160
Speaker 1: He had two goals. One was to just hold onto

2058
01:39:28,160 --> 01:39:30,519
Speaker 1: power as long as possible. Okay, well he's doing that well.

2059
01:39:30,920 --> 01:39:37,200
Speaker 1: And two, by satiating this desire for just horror and revenge,

2060
01:39:37,920 --> 01:39:40,200
Speaker 1: he was hoping that he could regain his political position.

2061
01:39:40,320 --> 01:39:42,759
Speaker 4: And guess what, it's kind of worked. His poll numbers

2062
01:39:42,760 --> 01:39:44,920
Speaker 4: have come up significantly.

2063
01:39:44,600 --> 01:39:47,800
Speaker 1: From where they were after October seventh, because recall, you know,

2064
01:39:47,880 --> 01:39:51,320
Speaker 1: he was mister Security and it was his entire philosophy

2065
01:39:51,800 --> 01:39:54,759
Speaker 1: that you know, obviously that Hamas is responsible for their actions.

2066
01:39:54,800 --> 01:39:57,639
Speaker 1: I'm not taking away from the horrors that they committed,

2067
01:39:58,040 --> 01:39:59,960
Speaker 1: but in terms of his theory of what would provide

2068
01:40:00,120 --> 01:40:04,320
Speaker 1: security for Israelis, it completely failed and there were massive

2069
01:40:04,360 --> 01:40:07,280
Speaker 1: public recriminations. Plus there was, you know, already this massive

2070
01:40:07,280 --> 01:40:09,639
Speaker 1: backlash over the like judicial coup that he was trying

2071
01:40:09,680 --> 01:40:12,519
Speaker 1: to effectuate that was deeply unpopular as well.

2072
01:40:13,040 --> 01:40:14,519
Speaker 4: His position is recovered quite a bit.

2073
01:40:14,600 --> 01:40:17,679
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, his position is not only recovered, it's largely

2074
01:40:17,720 --> 01:40:21,519
Speaker 2: the strategy is working for him now currently, and there's

2075
01:40:21,560 --> 01:40:23,880
Speaker 2: been you know, we wanted to also put some other

2076
01:40:23,960 --> 01:40:26,240
Speaker 2: troubling precedents in here and to look into.

2077
01:40:26,720 --> 01:40:28,240
Speaker 3: Let's put this up there on the screen.

2078
01:40:28,360 --> 01:40:33,480
Speaker 2: There was a major report that Binance, the cryptocurrency exchange,

2079
01:40:33,760 --> 01:40:38,840
Speaker 2: was quote under scrutiny for seizing Palestinian crypto funds. Now

2080
01:40:39,040 --> 01:40:42,440
Speaker 2: Finance is disputing this, basically saying that they're in compliance

2081
01:40:42,479 --> 01:40:46,720
Speaker 2: with anti money laundering, anti monitoring lot for example, let's

2082
01:40:46,720 --> 01:40:49,920
Speaker 2: go to the next part. Please, They say the Binance

2083
01:40:49,960 --> 01:40:53,800
Speaker 2: CEO dismissed it, said that it was basically only in

2084
01:40:53,840 --> 01:40:58,600
Speaker 2: compliance with anti money laundering funds, saying, quote, only a

2085
01:40:58,640 --> 01:41:01,960
Speaker 2: limited number of users were blocked from transacting. There have

2086
01:41:02,000 --> 01:41:04,479
Speaker 2: been some incorrect statements about this. As a global exchange,

2087
01:41:04,479 --> 01:41:09,200
Speaker 2: we have to comply with internationally accepted money laundering legislation

2088
01:41:09,360 --> 01:41:10,919
Speaker 2: just like any other financial institution.

2089
01:41:11,000 --> 01:41:12,439
Speaker 3: Will continue to educate users.

2090
01:41:12,720 --> 01:41:14,800
Speaker 2: What this is highlighting is just like the power of

2091
01:41:14,760 --> 01:41:17,920
Speaker 2: the Israeli government right now in trying to deny and

2092
01:41:18,080 --> 01:41:21,959
Speaker 2: use its sovereign status in the conflict, not only over Binance,

2093
01:41:22,040 --> 01:41:25,719
Speaker 2: but Elon Musk previously had this issue with Starlink as well,

2094
01:41:26,000 --> 01:41:27,600
Speaker 2: for example, because he was like, Hey, I want to

2095
01:41:27,600 --> 01:41:29,360
Speaker 2: give starlink to Gaza, and they were like, yeah, that's

2096
01:41:29,360 --> 01:41:33,000
Speaker 2: not going to happen unless we give permission basically, And

2097
01:41:33,439 --> 01:41:36,080
Speaker 2: it's one of those where it shows the power of

2098
01:41:36,080 --> 01:41:38,799
Speaker 2: a nation state whenever they want to, you know, whenever

2099
01:41:38,840 --> 01:41:41,240
Speaker 2: they want to act. Yeah, they've done it with Facebook,

2100
01:41:41,280 --> 01:41:43,040
Speaker 2: They've done it with a couple of other places as well.

2101
01:41:43,160 --> 01:41:45,360
Speaker 1: I read the replies by the way to that tweet

2102
01:41:45,360 --> 01:41:46,920
Speaker 1: saying like this is fun and we only did for

2103
01:41:46,960 --> 01:41:49,600
Speaker 1: a few and the people were not buying it for

2104
01:41:49,760 --> 01:41:52,840
Speaker 1: whatever that's worth. The crypto world saw it as quite

2105
01:41:52,840 --> 01:41:56,040
Speaker 1: a betrayal, as they should, because one of the key

2106
01:41:56,160 --> 01:41:59,519
Speaker 1: selling points of crypto is that it would not be

2107
01:41:59,640 --> 01:42:05,200
Speaker 1: that outside of these various nation state pressures. And it's

2108
01:42:05,240 --> 01:42:08,160
Speaker 1: not very clearly way.

2109
01:42:08,280 --> 01:42:09,559
Speaker 3: Like it's just not that simple.

2110
01:42:09,800 --> 01:42:11,000
Speaker 4: Maybe it could be, but it's not.

2111
01:42:11,200 --> 01:42:12,240
Speaker 3: No, I'm saying it can be.

2112
01:42:12,280 --> 01:42:14,040
Speaker 2: Like you got to use it in a VPN like you

2113
01:42:14,120 --> 01:42:16,560
Speaker 2: gotta go to great length listen. In general, if you

2114
01:42:16,600 --> 01:42:18,919
Speaker 2: want to transact when the government doesn't want you to transact,

2115
01:42:19,040 --> 01:42:20,479
Speaker 2: good luck even with crypto.

2116
01:42:20,720 --> 01:42:21,000
Speaker 3: And I do.

2117
01:42:21,200 --> 01:42:23,360
Speaker 2: Look, but you can do it with crypto. I will

2118
01:42:23,400 --> 01:42:25,519
Speaker 2: just say that it's still very difficult. It's not the

2119
01:42:25,520 --> 01:42:27,280
Speaker 2: easiest thing in the world. I'm not going to give

2120
01:42:27,320 --> 01:42:29,880
Speaker 2: away any secrets here on the platform, so the FBI

2121
01:42:29,960 --> 01:42:31,760
Speaker 2: comes at me. But there are definitely ways to get

2122
01:42:31,760 --> 01:42:33,680
Speaker 2: around it if you want to. If you want it

2123
01:42:33,720 --> 01:42:36,040
Speaker 2: to be easy, like with a bank or something, then

2124
01:42:36,160 --> 01:42:39,040
Speaker 2: use the legitimate system. The problem with the legitimate system is, well,

2125
01:42:39,240 --> 01:42:41,400
Speaker 2: you know, the government at any time they want boom,

2126
01:42:41,439 --> 01:42:44,400
Speaker 2: your entire account is completely shut down. And we saw

2127
01:42:44,439 --> 01:42:47,160
Speaker 2: that with Canada the whole freedom protest thing.

2128
01:42:47,240 --> 01:42:47,760
Speaker 3: But you're right.

2129
01:42:47,800 --> 01:42:50,120
Speaker 2: I mean in terms of finance and just the way

2130
01:42:50,120 --> 01:42:53,280
Speaker 2: that a lot of these international exchanges in particular portray themselves.

2131
01:42:53,320 --> 01:42:55,680
Speaker 2: They always say like, we're above government institutions, and they

2132
01:42:55,680 --> 01:42:57,439
Speaker 2: do need to be honest about Listen, if you're trying

2133
01:42:57,439 --> 01:42:59,759
Speaker 2: to evade like the long arm or the law.

2134
01:43:01,080 --> 01:43:04,559
Speaker 1: Process, sanctions or whatever targeting by the Israeli state, who

2135
01:43:04,600 --> 01:43:07,439
Speaker 1: you know, makes up whoever they want to deem as terrorist.

2136
01:43:07,760 --> 01:43:10,920
Speaker 1: Crypto is obviously not. And the other thing is, you know,

2137
01:43:10,960 --> 01:43:12,519
Speaker 1: on the one hand, they want to be like, oh,

2138
01:43:12,600 --> 01:43:14,880
Speaker 1: we're you know, we're outside of the system, et cetera,

2139
01:43:14,880 --> 01:43:18,120
Speaker 1: et cetera. On the other hand, I believe this is correct.

2140
01:43:18,320 --> 01:43:21,320
Speaker 1: No industry has spent more in this election than crypto.

2141
01:43:22,200 --> 01:43:22,960
Speaker 3: I'm not sure that.

2142
01:43:23,320 --> 01:43:23,760
Speaker 4: Look it up.

2143
01:43:23,760 --> 01:43:24,479
Speaker 3: I'd have to look back.

2144
01:43:24,479 --> 01:43:24,920
Speaker 4: Look it up.

2145
01:43:25,560 --> 01:43:29,160
Speaker 1: They've spent, I believe, more than any other industry. And

2146
01:43:29,479 --> 01:43:32,000
Speaker 1: you know they want to They're here with their own

2147
01:43:32,280 --> 01:43:35,960
Speaker 1: lobbyist outfits and play in the same Washington influence game

2148
01:43:36,040 --> 01:43:38,360
Speaker 1: to get their goodies and their perks and their loopholes

2149
01:43:38,400 --> 01:43:39,800
Speaker 1: and whatever is everybody else.

2150
01:43:39,840 --> 01:43:41,679
Speaker 4: So I don't see them as much different.

2151
01:43:41,720 --> 01:43:43,640
Speaker 2: Well the real okay, well, the reason on that is

2152
01:43:43,640 --> 01:43:46,280
Speaker 2: that there's a big divide in crypto also because what

2153
01:43:46,320 --> 01:43:49,040
Speaker 2: you're talking about is the reason that they're spending money

2154
01:43:49,120 --> 01:43:51,599
Speaker 2: is not to transact on crypto.

2155
01:43:51,840 --> 01:43:54,760
Speaker 3: It's specifically for sec.

2156
01:43:54,680 --> 01:43:58,679
Speaker 2: Rulings about how an asset is governed and the ability

2157
01:43:58,720 --> 01:44:02,160
Speaker 2: to tokenize. That is actually really what's more at stake.

2158
01:44:02,400 --> 01:44:04,439
Speaker 2: That's not really crypto per se. This is more like

2159
01:44:04,520 --> 01:44:08,679
Speaker 2: blockchain related tech. And then also the issuance of tokens,

2160
01:44:08,720 --> 01:44:11,679
Speaker 2: which has its history in crypto, but it has much

2161
01:44:11,680 --> 01:44:15,640
Speaker 2: more application to like web based transacting.

2162
01:44:16,000 --> 01:44:18,920
Speaker 3: This is part of the whole like Web three movement. Anyway.

2163
01:44:18,960 --> 01:44:21,240
Speaker 2: I know this is very confusing and in the weeds,

2164
01:44:21,280 --> 01:44:24,040
Speaker 2: but there is a significant difference between that. There's also

2165
01:44:24,080 --> 01:44:27,160
Speaker 2: a big divide in crypto itself between like institutional crypto

2166
01:44:27,400 --> 01:44:30,160
Speaker 2: people like the WINKLEBI and others. I mean, for example,

2167
01:44:30,200 --> 01:44:32,280
Speaker 2: being able to buy like a what is it an

2168
01:44:32,280 --> 01:44:35,680
Speaker 2: ETF that just tracks bitcoin a lot of og bitcoins, Like, hey,

2169
01:44:35,680 --> 01:44:37,559
Speaker 2: we didn't get into this to like have an et

2170
01:44:37,800 --> 01:44:42,559
Speaker 2: step of sec regulated stock market fund just to track bitcoin.

2171
01:44:42,960 --> 01:44:45,280
Speaker 2: This also gets to the differences, and I mean, let's

2172
01:44:45,320 --> 01:44:48,080
Speaker 2: be honest, there's hundreds of billions of dollars now and yeah,

2173
01:44:48,160 --> 01:44:49,760
Speaker 2: so there's a very different stakeholders.

2174
01:44:49,760 --> 01:44:53,040
Speaker 1: It's used much more as just like a thing to

2175
01:44:53,080 --> 01:44:56,240
Speaker 1: bet on than it is as a currency that's just undeniable.

2176
01:44:56,400 --> 01:44:56,479
Speaker 12: No.

2177
01:44:56,560 --> 01:44:59,519
Speaker 1: I found the stat big Crypto now spending more on

2178
01:44:59,640 --> 01:45:02,040
Speaker 1: US elections than any other industry. They funneled some one

2179
01:45:02,120 --> 01:45:05,360
Speaker 1: hundred and nineteen million dollars into federal elections, cording a

2180
01:45:05,360 --> 01:45:08,200
Speaker 1: public citizen from four days ago. So they're big piet

2181
01:45:08,240 --> 01:45:12,080
Speaker 1: players here, and they're winning too. It looks I mean,

2182
01:45:12,120 --> 01:45:16,320
Speaker 1: this is one area Trump has already dropped his opposition to.

2183
01:45:17,160 --> 01:45:18,880
Speaker 1: He's you know, he went and spoke at their conference.

2184
01:45:18,920 --> 01:45:20,880
Speaker 1: He's basically like, whatever you want me to do or believe,

2185
01:45:21,000 --> 01:45:24,240
Speaker 1: I'll you know, do and believe. And it looks like

2186
01:45:24,280 --> 01:45:29,000
Speaker 1: the Harris people are more Crypto favorable than the Biden

2187
01:45:29,000 --> 01:45:29,679
Speaker 1: people have been.

2188
01:45:29,880 --> 01:45:32,639
Speaker 4: So Lenz well spent. Looks like they're winning, all.

2189
01:45:32,560 --> 01:45:33,920
Speaker 3: Right, Chrystal, what are you taking a look at?

2190
01:45:36,479 --> 01:45:40,639
Speaker 1: In the past week, two significant formerly leftish figures decided

2191
01:45:40,680 --> 01:45:43,320
Speaker 1: to throw their lot in with the reigning global symbol

2192
01:45:43,439 --> 01:45:46,840
Speaker 1: of right populous authoritarians, Donald Trump. Now that would be

2193
01:45:46,920 --> 01:45:50,240
Speaker 1: former twenty twenty four presidential candidate RFK Junior and former

2194
01:45:50,240 --> 01:45:54,080
Speaker 1: twenty twenty presidential candidate Tulci Gabbard both appeared to travel

2195
01:45:54,120 --> 01:45:57,240
Speaker 1: a kind of similar journey from dissident left to right wing,

2196
01:45:57,320 --> 01:45:59,360
Speaker 1: and so they sparked a round of online discussion about

2197
01:45:59,400 --> 01:46:03,519
Speaker 1: these supposed Bernie to Trump pipeline. There's a lot, of course,

2198
01:46:03,560 --> 01:46:06,519
Speaker 1: that this formulation leaves out. For one thing, Tulsi's most

2199
01:46:06,600 --> 01:46:09,519
Speaker 1: recent presidential endorsement in twenty twenty, while Bernie was still

2200
01:46:09,560 --> 01:46:12,120
Speaker 1: in the race, went to Joe Biden. Yet there are

2201
01:46:12,160 --> 01:46:14,559
Speaker 1: no thing pieces on the Biden to Trump pipeline, at

2202
01:46:14,600 --> 01:46:16,720
Speaker 1: least one that I've seen. I can actually find a

2203
01:46:16,760 --> 01:46:19,080
Speaker 1: record of who RFK Junior supported in twenty twenty. Someone

2204
01:46:19,120 --> 01:46:20,760
Speaker 1: can message me and let me know, But I know

2205
01:46:20,840 --> 01:46:23,800
Speaker 1: his similarly read pilled vice presidential pick was a Mayor

2206
01:46:23,840 --> 01:46:27,120
Speaker 1: Pete backer, former and never Trump resistance figure. Jade Vance

2207
01:46:27,200 --> 01:46:30,280
Speaker 1: is now literally Trump's VP pick. In other words, there

2208
01:46:30,280 --> 01:46:35,280
Speaker 1: are many ideological and ambition driven paths between the two political.

2209
01:46:34,840 --> 01:46:36,000
Speaker 4: Parties back and forth.

2210
01:46:36,320 --> 01:46:38,799
Speaker 1: I could also point out that by the numbers, actually

2211
01:46:39,320 --> 01:46:43,439
Speaker 1: more Hillary voters, bitter over her loss to Obama defected

2212
01:46:43,439 --> 01:46:46,120
Speaker 1: to McCain in two thousand and eight than angry Bernie

2213
01:46:46,160 --> 01:46:49,640
Speaker 1: Brose defected to Trump in twenty sixteen. In fact, with

2214
01:46:49,720 --> 01:46:53,240
Speaker 1: the new coconut pilled inspired unity, if anything, the problems

2215
01:46:53,280 --> 01:46:55,320
Speaker 1: closer than the one Matt carp identifies, which is that

2216
01:46:55,360 --> 01:46:58,240
Speaker 1: too many online Bernie bros. Are demanding too little from

2217
01:46:58,320 --> 01:47:01,880
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris for their support. All of this is true,

2218
01:47:02,080 --> 01:47:04,000
Speaker 1: and if I was writing this monologue a few years ago,

2219
01:47:04,040 --> 01:47:06,760
Speaker 1: I would have penned a blistering screed filaying these shit

2220
01:47:06,840 --> 01:47:09,639
Speaker 1: libs for their unending animus and bias towards the left.

2221
01:47:10,280 --> 01:47:12,280
Speaker 4: But the truth is, we got a.

2222
01:47:12,240 --> 01:47:14,680
Speaker 1: Few too many examples now, several of which I've been

2223
01:47:14,720 --> 01:47:18,519
Speaker 1: personally burned by, to totally dismiss the Bernie to Trump

2224
01:47:18,520 --> 01:47:21,760
Speaker 1: pipeline as a baseless mainstream media plot. To describe it

2225
01:47:21,840 --> 01:47:24,200
Speaker 1: the left, it pains me to admit it. But the

2226
01:47:24,240 --> 01:47:28,560
Speaker 1: libs are not entirely wrong. There is former Communists, no

2227
01:47:29,080 --> 01:47:32,719
Speaker 1: Trump supporter Russell Brand, There's former TYT progressive host Jimmy

2228
01:47:32,760 --> 01:47:35,080
Speaker 1: Durr's politics now just seem to be centered around hating

2229
01:47:35,120 --> 01:47:38,320
Speaker 1: libs and being anti COVID vacs. There's, however, you want

2230
01:47:38,360 --> 01:47:41,720
Speaker 1: to describe Twitter ubiquitous, Jackson Hinkel, I'm sure you've got

2231
01:47:41,720 --> 01:47:44,000
Speaker 1: your own examples that come to mind. I think the

2232
01:47:44,160 --> 01:47:47,600
Speaker 1: online influencer horseshoe journey is likely more common than the

2233
01:47:47,680 --> 01:47:50,160
Speaker 1: regular person horseshoe journey is best I can tell by

2234
01:47:50,200 --> 01:47:52,840
Speaker 1: the polling data. But it'd be foolish to assume that

2235
01:47:53,040 --> 01:47:56,360
Speaker 1: none of these influencers flock followed them from dissonant left

2236
01:47:56,560 --> 01:47:58,800
Speaker 1: to trumpy and right. Probably some of you listening to

2237
01:47:58,840 --> 01:48:02,040
Speaker 1: me right now. In terms of the horseshoe influencers, most

2238
01:48:02,040 --> 01:48:04,320
Speaker 1: of them would claim that their politics haven't budge ninch.

2239
01:48:04,479 --> 01:48:08,000
Speaker 1: It's that, in fact, the Democratic Party left them just

2240
01:48:08,080 --> 01:48:11,280
Speaker 1: zoming in on RFK and Tulci, these claims are pretty

2241
01:48:11,280 --> 01:48:13,519
Speaker 1: hard to take seriously, especially at this late date and

2242
01:48:13,560 --> 01:48:16,599
Speaker 1: trump Ism, when few if any, real populous elements remain

2243
01:48:17,040 --> 01:48:20,160
Speaker 1: I have instead been replaced by standard Boomer Cohn attacks

2244
01:48:20,200 --> 01:48:23,439
Speaker 1: on imaginary communists. But a quick look at the statements

2245
01:48:23,439 --> 01:48:26,759
Speaker 1: of both RFK and Tulci will leave you pretty convinced

2246
01:48:26,840 --> 01:48:30,080
Speaker 1: that to back Trump, they changed or abandon their principles.

2247
01:48:30,479 --> 01:48:33,160
Speaker 1: I guess it's also possible that they've thoroughly confused themselves

2248
01:48:33,160 --> 01:48:35,479
Speaker 1: about who Donald Trump actually is and what the Republican

2249
01:48:35,520 --> 01:48:39,519
Speaker 1: Party actually stands for. Remember Tulci's most memorable moment of

2250
01:48:39,680 --> 01:48:43,400
Speaker 1: righteous indignation at Kama's expense during the twenty twenty primary.

2251
01:48:43,479 --> 01:48:44,759
Speaker 1: Let's just take a listen to that again.

2252
01:48:44,960 --> 01:48:47,320
Speaker 6: I want to bring the conversation back to the broken

2253
01:48:47,360 --> 01:48:52,439
Speaker 6: criminal justice system that is disproportionately negatively impacting black and

2254
01:48:52,479 --> 01:48:56,280
Speaker 6: brown people all across this country. Today, Senator Harris says

2255
01:48:56,280 --> 01:48:59,080
Speaker 6: she's proud of her record as a prosecutor and that

2256
01:48:59,120 --> 01:49:00,439
Speaker 6: she'll be a prosecutor present.

2257
01:49:00,520 --> 01:49:01,400
Speaker 3: But I'm deeply.

2258
01:49:01,080 --> 01:49:04,840
Speaker 6: Concerned about this record. There are too many examples to cite.

2259
01:49:04,840 --> 01:49:07,360
Speaker 6: But she put over fifteen hundred people in jail for

2260
01:49:07,439 --> 01:49:09,960
Speaker 6: marijuana violations and then laughed about it when she was

2261
01:49:09,960 --> 01:49:12,400
Speaker 6: asked if she ever smoked marijuana.

2262
01:49:12,520 --> 01:49:13,680
Speaker 4: She blocked evidence.

2263
01:49:14,760 --> 01:49:18,439
Speaker 6: She blocked evidence that would have freed an innocent man

2264
01:49:18,479 --> 01:49:21,400
Speaker 6: from death row until the courts forced her to do so.

2265
01:49:21,800 --> 01:49:24,720
Speaker 6: She kept people in prison beyond their sentences to use

2266
01:49:24,760 --> 01:49:27,479
Speaker 6: them as cheap labor for the state of California. And

2267
01:49:27,600 --> 01:49:31,599
Speaker 6: she fought to keep cash fail system in place that

2268
01:49:31,760 --> 01:49:34,240
Speaker 6: impacts poor people in the worst kind of way.

2269
01:49:34,720 --> 01:49:38,000
Speaker 1: It's impossible to imagine Tulci Gabbert critiquing Kamala on criminal

2270
01:49:38,080 --> 01:49:40,880
Speaker 1: justice or much of anything from the left at this

2271
01:49:41,040 --> 01:49:43,479
Speaker 1: point and by endorsing Trump, Tulci signing up with a

2272
01:49:43,479 --> 01:49:46,120
Speaker 1: man who called for the now exonerated Central Park five

2273
01:49:46,200 --> 01:49:49,360
Speaker 1: to be executed and a man who has already threatened

2274
01:49:49,360 --> 01:49:52,320
Speaker 1: to use the Insurrection Act to launch a military crackdown

2275
01:49:52,360 --> 01:49:55,200
Speaker 1: in Chicago and other American cities in response to crime

2276
01:49:55,280 --> 01:49:58,479
Speaker 1: as part of this current presidential bid. With regard to

2277
01:49:58,560 --> 01:50:00,920
Speaker 1: RFK Junior, just a few mon months ago, he was

2278
01:50:01,200 --> 01:50:05,200
Speaker 1: absolutely ripping Trump on a wide variety of fronts, including

2279
01:50:05,240 --> 01:50:07,400
Speaker 1: Trump's militarism and corporatism.

2280
01:50:07,680 --> 01:50:08,280
Speaker 4: Quote.

2281
01:50:08,479 --> 01:50:11,200
Speaker 1: If you think a second Trump term would be any different,

2282
01:50:11,320 --> 01:50:12,680
Speaker 1: you are engaging.

2283
01:50:12,240 --> 01:50:13,160
Speaker 4: In wishful thinking.

2284
01:50:13,520 --> 01:50:17,720
Speaker 1: Well now RFK Junior has flipped from blasting Trump for

2285
01:50:17,800 --> 01:50:20,320
Speaker 1: turning his foreign policy over to the worst warmongers and

2286
01:50:20,400 --> 01:50:24,040
Speaker 1: neocons to absurdly claiming that Trump is anti war. He

2287
01:50:24,120 --> 01:50:28,080
Speaker 1: also claimed that Trump would combat censorship and wild insanely

2288
01:50:28,120 --> 01:50:31,040
Speaker 1: dishonest claim that Kyle did a fantastic job of debunking

2289
01:50:31,080 --> 01:50:34,360
Speaker 1: in reality. Of course, Trump, among other things, wants to

2290
01:50:34,360 --> 01:50:36,919
Speaker 1: punish flag burning with a year in jail. Soon's CNN

2291
01:50:36,920 --> 01:50:38,920
Speaker 1: for four hundred and seventy five million dollars for calling

2292
01:50:38,920 --> 01:50:42,760
Speaker 1: election denihalism the Big Lie soon. Bill Maher over a joke,

2293
01:50:42,880 --> 01:50:45,960
Speaker 1: supports opening up the libel laws, called for jailing journalists

2294
01:50:45,960 --> 01:50:49,160
Speaker 1: who reported on the Scotus abortion ruling once, to deport

2295
01:50:49,200 --> 01:50:50,960
Speaker 1: pro Palestine protesters, etc.

2296
01:50:51,320 --> 01:50:52,800
Speaker 4: Etc. You get the point.

2297
01:50:53,640 --> 01:50:55,400
Speaker 1: So, at least for these two, the claim they're just

2298
01:50:55,439 --> 01:50:59,400
Speaker 1: consistently following their long held principles, it's pretty preposterous. So

2299
01:50:59,479 --> 01:51:02,040
Speaker 1: it's really going on here. Everyone calls everyone a grifter

2300
01:51:02,040 --> 01:51:04,280
Speaker 1: of these days, how we would be naive to overlook

2301
01:51:04,280 --> 01:51:07,400
Speaker 1: the pull of commercial and career incentives since we're talking

2302
01:51:07,400 --> 01:51:11,040
Speaker 1: about a bunch of hyper online influencers. Algorithmic rewards and

2303
01:51:11,120 --> 01:51:14,679
Speaker 1: audience capture are pretty compelling, if not totally complete answers.

2304
01:51:15,000 --> 01:51:17,719
Speaker 4: Look, I'm in this game. I know what clicks.

2305
01:51:17,800 --> 01:51:20,080
Speaker 1: I can see it in our metrics every single day.

2306
01:51:20,360 --> 01:51:24,080
Speaker 4: If I was simply following the anti establishment money, my politics.

2307
01:51:23,640 --> 01:51:26,439
Speaker 1: Would look a lot like Tulsi or RFK Junior or

2308
01:51:26,560 --> 01:51:29,120
Speaker 1: the others. And there are few things more irresistible to

2309
01:51:29,160 --> 01:51:31,720
Speaker 1: the entire right wing universe than a why I left

2310
01:51:31,760 --> 01:51:34,240
Speaker 1: the left narrative arc. That's why the Trump campaign has

2311
01:51:34,240 --> 01:51:36,599
Speaker 1: confused themselves into thinking that our pay Junior, who has

2312
01:51:36,640 --> 01:51:39,080
Speaker 1: a deeply negative approval rating, and a rash of perplexing

2313
01:51:39,120 --> 01:51:41,080
Speaker 1: and horrifying stories about his past, not to mention a

2314
01:51:41,120 --> 01:51:44,840
Speaker 1: set of deeply unpopular ideas and Tulci Gabbard, a former

2315
01:51:44,880 --> 01:51:48,760
Speaker 1: Democrat who garnered a whopping point seven percent of the

2316
01:51:48,760 --> 01:51:52,479
Speaker 1: primary vote, will be powerful campaign additions. Their brains have

2317
01:51:52,479 --> 01:51:54,720
Speaker 1: been cooked by the stew of right wing traditional and

2318
01:51:54,760 --> 01:51:57,840
Speaker 1: social media. Naomi Klein digs a layer deeper into this

2319
01:51:57,920 --> 01:52:00,960
Speaker 1: reward system in her terrific book Doppelgang. In it, she

2320
01:52:01,080 --> 01:52:03,760
Speaker 1: details hey phenomenon in which she is constantly confused with

2321
01:52:03,840 --> 01:52:06,680
Speaker 1: Naomi Wolf led her to think more deeply about what

2322
01:52:06,800 --> 01:52:09,680
Speaker 1: she describes as the quote mirror world that some like

2323
01:52:09,720 --> 01:52:13,320
Speaker 1: Wolfs have tumbled into. Now Naomi Wolf followed that horseshoe

2324
01:52:13,400 --> 01:52:16,719
Speaker 1: arc from Al Gore advisor and leading feminist to Bannon

2325
01:52:16,800 --> 01:52:20,600
Speaker 1: War Room regular and right wing COVID era celebrity influencer.

2326
01:52:21,160 --> 01:52:23,960
Speaker 1: In the book, Naomi Klin describes how during COVID she

2327
01:52:24,080 --> 01:52:28,000
Speaker 1: became somewhat obsessed with the confusion between herself and this doppelganger,

2328
01:52:28,320 --> 01:52:31,240
Speaker 1: and especially obsessed with the journey that that other Naomi

2329
01:52:31,280 --> 01:52:31,879
Speaker 1: had traveled.

2330
01:52:32,160 --> 01:52:34,000
Speaker 4: What happened? How did she justify it?

2331
01:52:34,560 --> 01:52:36,479
Speaker 1: One of the things that Naomi Kline found is that

2332
01:52:36,560 --> 01:52:39,120
Speaker 1: the mirror world or horseshoe or burn you to Trump phenomenon,

2333
01:52:39,200 --> 01:52:42,240
Speaker 1: it's actually not just a US dynamic. Similar movement in

2334
01:52:42,280 --> 01:52:45,800
Speaker 1: Germany labels itself querdenkin, taking a stab at the pronunciation

2335
01:52:45,840 --> 01:52:49,280
Speaker 1: there meaning outside the box or diagonal, and combines neo

2336
01:52:49,320 --> 01:52:52,720
Speaker 1: fascists with hippie type health obsessives. Other similar movements have

2337
01:52:52,800 --> 01:52:55,360
Speaker 1: sprung up throughout Europe as well, As Klein writes in

2338
01:52:55,400 --> 01:52:58,639
Speaker 1: her book, despite claims of postpartisanship, it is right wing,

2339
01:52:58,640 --> 01:53:01,240
Speaker 1: often far right, political party around the world that have

2340
01:53:01,320 --> 01:53:04,880
Speaker 1: managed to absorb the unruly passions and energy of diagonalism,

2341
01:53:05,200 --> 01:53:09,720
Speaker 1: folding its COVID era grievances into pre existing projects, opposing wokeness,

2342
01:53:09,760 --> 01:53:12,920
Speaker 1: and drumming up fears of migrant invasions, alien abductions as

2343
01:53:12,920 --> 01:53:16,639
Speaker 1: well as climate lockdowns. Still, it is important for these

2344
01:53:16,640 --> 01:53:20,280
Speaker 1: movements to present themselves as and to believe themselves to

2345
01:53:20,360 --> 01:53:23,400
Speaker 1: be ruptures with politics as usual, to claim to be

2346
01:53:23,479 --> 01:53:26,639
Speaker 1: something new beyond traditional left right polls, which is why

2347
01:53:26,720 --> 01:53:29,759
Speaker 1: having a few prominent self identified progressives and or liberals

2348
01:53:29,800 --> 01:53:33,200
Speaker 1: involved is so critical. In other words, these movements need

2349
01:53:33,200 --> 01:53:36,559
Speaker 1: former Democrats so they'll scoop up a discredited Naomi Wolf

2350
01:53:36,600 --> 01:53:38,840
Speaker 1: or a failed and scored presidential candidate or two, and

2351
01:53:38,880 --> 01:53:40,759
Speaker 1: embrace them, download their podcasts.

2352
01:53:40,760 --> 01:53:41,919
Speaker 4: They'll push them to stardom.

2353
01:53:42,160 --> 01:53:45,519
Speaker 1: They'll replace the scorn and derision of liberals with the

2354
01:53:45,560 --> 01:53:49,400
Speaker 1: praise and adoration of the right. That's an intoxicating brew

2355
01:53:49,640 --> 01:53:53,680
Speaker 1: for anyone, but may prove completely irresistible depending on a

2356
01:53:53,720 --> 01:53:57,200
Speaker 1: set of life experiences and personality traits. As Naomi Klein

2357
01:53:57,320 --> 01:54:00,120
Speaker 1: rights quote, I could offer a kind of equation for

2358
01:54:00,200 --> 01:54:02,519
Speaker 1: leftists and liberals crossing over to the neo fascism and

2359
01:54:02,560 --> 01:54:07,519
Speaker 1: authoritarian right that goes something like narcissism times grandiosity plus

2360
01:54:07,520 --> 01:54:11,200
Speaker 1: social media addiction plus midlife crisis divided by public shaming

2361
01:54:11,280 --> 01:54:14,479
Speaker 1: equals right wing meltdown. She was joking, but it does

2362
01:54:14,560 --> 01:54:16,680
Speaker 1: ring a little bit true. I want to dwell on

2363
01:54:16,680 --> 01:54:18,839
Speaker 1: that public shaming piece, though, because I think it's important.

2364
01:54:18,920 --> 01:54:20,320
Speaker 1: Gives me an excuse to get back on the more

2365
01:54:20,360 --> 01:54:23,760
Speaker 1: comfortable ground of criticizing liberals. Since the Clinton era, the

2366
01:54:23,920 --> 01:54:26,920
Speaker 1: entire Democratic Party establishment has been dedicated to a project

2367
01:54:26,920 --> 01:54:30,880
Speaker 1: a punching left, deriding anyone who questions the narrow confines

2368
01:54:30,920 --> 01:54:34,120
Speaker 1: of their cramped worldview. As a villain, and this project

2369
01:54:34,120 --> 01:54:37,920
Speaker 1: of derision and excommunication got turned up to eleven. During

2370
01:54:37,920 --> 01:54:41,000
Speaker 1: the Bernie era, we weren't just people who wanted healthcare.

2371
01:54:41,080 --> 01:54:42,560
Speaker 4: We were toxic Bernie bros.

2372
01:54:42,880 --> 01:54:45,440
Speaker 1: Hell bent on electing Donald Trump or turning the country

2373
01:54:45,440 --> 01:54:49,800
Speaker 1: over to Vladimir Putin or whatever. At every opportunity, Democratic

2374
01:54:49,840 --> 01:54:54,720
Speaker 1: Party elites trashed us, personally mocked our priorities, undermined our

2375
01:54:54,800 --> 01:54:57,920
Speaker 1: candidates to the point of outright rigging. It's not an

2376
01:54:57,960 --> 01:55:01,000
Speaker 1: excuse for people to abandon their principles to throw in

2377
01:55:01,080 --> 01:55:05,080
Speaker 1: with Trump, but it is highly predictable that this process

2378
01:55:05,080 --> 01:55:08,720
Speaker 1: of scorn and shaming will in fact lead to some

2379
01:55:08,760 --> 01:55:11,560
Speaker 1: folks embracing the side that is there waiting with open

2380
01:55:11,680 --> 01:55:14,520
Speaker 1: arms to praise and uplift them and their conversion story,

2381
01:55:15,080 --> 01:55:18,720
Speaker 1: not to mention to validate their online battle hardened worldview

2382
01:55:18,800 --> 01:55:22,320
Speaker 1: that liberals were always and forever the root of all evil.

2383
01:55:22,920 --> 01:55:25,360
Speaker 1: On the contrary, in the new Kamala Harn's era, it

2384
01:55:25,360 --> 01:55:29,040
Speaker 1: has taken remarkably little extension of the tiniest bit of

2385
01:55:29,080 --> 01:55:32,520
Speaker 1: goodwill to get many disaffected Bernie type young people and

2386
01:55:32,560 --> 01:55:35,680
Speaker 1: not so young people back on board. I was personally

2387
01:55:35,680 --> 01:55:38,320
Speaker 1: shocked that Kamala picked Tim Walls for VP simply because

2388
01:55:38,360 --> 01:55:40,840
Speaker 1: he was the candidate the left wanted, and typically Democrats

2389
01:55:40,840 --> 01:55:44,160
Speaker 1: make a show of humiliating the left for sport. In addition,

2390
01:55:44,240 --> 01:55:47,800
Speaker 1: after an initially ugly response to pro Palestinian protesters, Kama

2391
01:55:47,920 --> 01:55:50,120
Speaker 1: clearly heard the feedback and adjusted her tone to be

2392
01:55:50,200 --> 01:55:54,040
Speaker 1: more compassionate in future interactions. Now, doi' mistake what I'm

2393
01:55:54,040 --> 01:55:56,560
Speaker 1: saying here. These gestures are far from enough, but that's

2394
01:55:56,640 --> 01:55:58,640
Speaker 1: kind of my point. As the old saying goes, you

2395
01:55:58,760 --> 01:56:00,880
Speaker 1: catch a lot more flies with honey than with vinegar.

2396
01:56:01,240 --> 01:56:04,520
Speaker 1: Kamala is trying the tiniest bit of honey, and judging

2397
01:56:04,560 --> 01:56:06,560
Speaker 1: by the polls and the Democrats that are coming back home,

2398
01:56:06,640 --> 01:56:10,360
Speaker 1: it's actually working like a charm. This monologue already too long.

2399
01:56:10,480 --> 01:56:12,000
Speaker 1: A lot more I could say about the peal of

2400
01:56:12,000 --> 01:56:14,880
Speaker 1: conspiracy and autopsy turvy world, about the particular characters who

2401
01:56:14,880 --> 01:56:16,800
Speaker 1: are involved here, about how Trump and then COVID just

2402
01:56:16,840 --> 01:56:19,040
Speaker 1: really broke a lot of people's brains, But I'm just

2403
01:56:19,080 --> 01:56:21,440
Speaker 1: going to end with this. The COVID era is over,

2404
01:56:22,200 --> 01:56:23,600
Speaker 1: the Bernie versus Hillary era.

2405
01:56:24,160 --> 01:56:25,200
Speaker 4: I think it's actually over.

2406
01:56:25,760 --> 01:56:28,280
Speaker 1: And so while there may still be various pipelines to

2407
01:56:28,320 --> 01:56:32,120
Speaker 1: the right wing TULSI and RFK. They're probably more emblematic

2408
01:56:32,160 --> 01:56:34,880
Speaker 1: of the last gasps of some phenomenon than a new

2409
01:56:34,920 --> 01:56:37,320
Speaker 1: wave of some phenomenon, as evidenced by the fact that

2410
01:56:37,320 --> 01:56:39,720
Speaker 1: anyone excited about their embrace of Trump was really already

2411
01:56:39,760 --> 01:56:40,520
Speaker 1: supporting Trump.

2412
01:56:40,960 --> 01:56:42,120
Speaker 4: We'll have to await what.

2413
01:56:42,240 --> 01:56:46,000
Speaker 1: Strange new political phenomenon our AI algorithmic overlords are going

2414
01:56:46,040 --> 01:56:48,520
Speaker 1: to cook up next. All right, Sager, there was a

2415
01:56:48,560 --> 01:56:51,280
Speaker 1: lot there. But anyway, Bernie to Trump pipeline.

2416
01:56:50,840 --> 01:56:51,320
Speaker 4: Is it real?

2417
01:56:52,360 --> 01:56:55,640
Speaker 2: Yes, to the extent that Bernie is like Trump in

2418
01:56:55,640 --> 01:56:59,120
Speaker 2: his twenty sixteen campaign was a catch all for a

2419
01:56:59,120 --> 01:57:01,880
Speaker 2: lot of different stuff. So some people were there for

2420
01:57:02,400 --> 01:57:05,080
Speaker 2: Medicare for all, some people were there because they hated

2421
01:57:05,120 --> 01:57:07,480
Speaker 2: Hillary Clinton, and some people were there because I hate

2422
01:57:07,480 --> 01:57:09,560
Speaker 2: the left right, the establishment left.

2423
01:57:09,760 --> 01:57:12,120
Speaker 3: And so today, if you hate.

2424
01:57:11,880 --> 01:57:14,480
Speaker 2: The establishment left because they hate liberals, because they hate liberals,

2425
01:57:15,240 --> 01:57:17,680
Speaker 2: you should support Trump, like if that's your number one

2426
01:57:17,680 --> 01:57:18,200
Speaker 2: thing you hate.

2427
01:57:18,240 --> 01:57:20,280
Speaker 1: If your whole politics is just I hate. I mean

2428
01:57:20,280 --> 01:57:21,520
Speaker 1: a lot of people think that a lot of people

2429
01:57:22,040 --> 01:57:22,760
Speaker 1: that is their polity.

2430
01:57:23,040 --> 01:57:27,160
Speaker 2: Yeah and yeah, especially online, like in particular, then that

2431
01:57:27,240 --> 01:57:30,240
Speaker 2: pipeline makes a lot of sense. Trump was a much

2432
01:57:30,280 --> 01:57:33,760
Speaker 2: more marginal figure in twenty sixteen. Bernie obviously was a

2433
01:57:33,840 --> 01:57:37,280
Speaker 2: catch all of the Democratic Party. These were traditionally people

2434
01:57:37,280 --> 01:57:40,160
Speaker 2: who came up hating the Bush Republican Party. It wasn't

2435
01:57:40,200 --> 01:57:42,960
Speaker 2: exactly clear yet that that was going to be demolished.

2436
01:57:43,120 --> 01:57:44,680
Speaker 2: It would make a lot of sense to back a

2437
01:57:44,800 --> 01:57:47,240
Speaker 2: Bernie Sanders. It also would make a lot of sense

2438
01:57:47,280 --> 01:57:49,640
Speaker 2: then to back a Donald Trump in twenty twenty four.

2439
01:57:49,680 --> 01:57:51,120
Speaker 2: And that's the thing. Look, a lot of people don't

2440
01:57:51,160 --> 01:57:53,400
Speaker 2: vote on policy. A lot of people are oriented towards

2441
01:57:53,400 --> 01:57:54,840
Speaker 2: hating the left. So if you hate the left, yeah,

2442
01:57:54,840 --> 01:57:56,960
Speaker 2: you should vote for Trump, I mean honestly. And that's

2443
01:57:57,000 --> 01:58:00,960
Speaker 2: why I actually think the Tulsa and RFK phenomenon does

2444
01:58:01,360 --> 01:58:04,440
Speaker 2: entirely make sense to me, because I never thought any

2445
01:58:04,480 --> 01:58:07,400
Speaker 2: of it really was about criminal.

2446
01:58:07,120 --> 01:58:08,560
Speaker 3: Justice reform or any of that stuff.

2447
01:58:09,080 --> 01:58:12,320
Speaker 2: A lot of it really was just about the establishment

2448
01:58:12,520 --> 01:58:13,680
Speaker 2: being anti establishment.

2449
01:58:13,720 --> 01:58:15,000
Speaker 3: One is sticking it to the man.

2450
01:58:15,400 --> 01:58:18,240
Speaker 2: And like in a realm where we are where Bernie

2451
01:58:18,280 --> 01:58:21,720
Speaker 2: is now endorsed Trump, where like you know, AOC is

2452
01:58:21,760 --> 01:58:24,240
Speaker 2: on the d NC stage, a lot of it does

2453
01:58:24,400 --> 01:58:26,800
Speaker 2: make sense for the figures who were most attracted to them,

2454
01:58:27,040 --> 01:58:29,720
Speaker 2: again not for policy reasons, but for standing up to

2455
01:58:29,840 --> 01:58:32,920
Speaker 2: the establishment left to liberals. Then yeah, for vibes, then

2456
01:58:32,960 --> 01:58:36,880
Speaker 2: you entirely tracks that you should vote for Donald Trump

2457
01:58:37,040 --> 01:58:39,440
Speaker 2: and to support them. So yeah, I mean this is

2458
01:58:39,520 --> 01:58:42,880
Speaker 2: like former this is like former Trump supporters.

2459
01:58:43,640 --> 01:58:44,600
Speaker 3: I'm trying to think about this.

2460
01:58:45,360 --> 01:58:47,520
Speaker 2: It's you know, we make a lot of the phenomenon

2461
01:58:47,760 --> 01:58:51,440
Speaker 2: of like former McCain people who are now Democrats. Everyone's like,

2462
01:58:51,440 --> 01:58:53,400
Speaker 2: how is that possible? Like no, it's entirely like it

2463
01:58:53,800 --> 01:58:54,760
Speaker 2: totally makes sense.

2464
01:58:55,080 --> 01:58:58,040
Speaker 4: Maybe support like the McCain to Harris.

2465
01:58:58,720 --> 01:59:01,000
Speaker 2: There's so many of those people. Stephen's the Lincoln project.

2466
01:59:01,160 --> 01:59:02,600
Speaker 2: I think that is entirely tracks.

2467
01:59:02,880 --> 01:59:05,920
Speaker 1: But part of it is part of it is number

2468
01:59:05,960 --> 01:59:10,560
Speaker 1: one with a lot of those people. Part of what

2469
01:59:10,680 --> 01:59:14,480
Speaker 1: drives it is also an ambition rewards calculus because in

2470
01:59:14,560 --> 01:59:17,040
Speaker 1: the same way, you know, you're fetied if you do

2471
01:59:17,120 --> 01:59:19,440
Speaker 1: the why I left the Left thing and you're suddenly

2472
01:59:19,480 --> 01:59:21,600
Speaker 1: you're you know, you're popular, and you have a podcast

2473
01:59:21,600 --> 01:59:24,560
Speaker 1: that's in the top whatever, and you're getting your presidential

2474
01:59:24,640 --> 01:59:28,560
Speaker 1: endorsement matters Like if Tulci Gabbard and endorsed Kamala Harris,

2475
01:59:28,600 --> 01:59:29,360
Speaker 1: no one would give a shit.

2476
01:59:29,480 --> 01:59:31,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, but that she endorsed Trump.

2477
01:59:32,040 --> 01:59:33,920
Speaker 1: He brings her up and stands a big she's on

2478
01:59:33,960 --> 01:59:36,839
Speaker 1: the transition team, she's a hero, et cetera, et cetera.

2479
01:59:37,040 --> 01:59:42,400
Speaker 1: There's a similar like, yeah, former Republican to resistance figure

2480
01:59:42,960 --> 01:59:45,840
Speaker 1: that's also very profitable and that you know, absolves you

2481
01:59:45,920 --> 01:59:48,160
Speaker 1: of all of your past sins of you know, supporting

2482
01:59:48,240 --> 01:59:50,840
Speaker 1: the Iraq war and justifying it and all of that

2483
01:59:51,040 --> 01:59:53,920
Speaker 1: as well. And so that's certainly a part of it,

2484
01:59:53,960 --> 01:59:56,080
Speaker 1: which is I think part of why you know in

2485
01:59:56,120 --> 01:59:59,760
Speaker 1: the same way that it's not exactly the same because

2486
02:00:00,120 --> 02:00:05,160
Speaker 1: the never Trump phenomenon is we're talking about elite media predominantly,

2487
02:00:05,200 --> 02:00:08,480
Speaker 1: and here we're talking about like online media predominantly. But

2488
02:00:08,960 --> 02:00:12,280
Speaker 1: I do think it is more of a top level

2489
02:00:12,480 --> 02:00:16,280
Speaker 1: influencer phenomenon because of the specific rewards and incentives that

2490
02:00:16,320 --> 02:00:20,760
Speaker 1: are involved in those structures than it is a broader phenomenon.

2491
02:00:21,280 --> 02:00:23,680
Speaker 1: I think it's if you just look at the numbers,

2492
02:00:24,320 --> 02:00:27,840
Speaker 1: far more former Bernie supporters have traveled the path to

2493
02:00:27,920 --> 02:00:32,960
Speaker 1: be like aoc Nancy Pelosi Coconut Hills far more than

2494
02:00:33,200 --> 02:00:37,440
Speaker 1: are like yes with RFK Junior joining Trump and Tulci

2495
02:00:37,480 --> 02:00:39,960
Speaker 1: Gabbert joining Trump. Now that's not to say those people

2496
02:00:40,000 --> 02:00:40,760
Speaker 1: don't exist.

2497
02:00:41,160 --> 02:00:42,120
Speaker 4: But you know, I do go.

2498
02:00:42,120 --> 02:00:44,560
Speaker 1: Back to like part of why I was reluctant to

2499
02:00:44,640 --> 02:00:46,560
Speaker 1: delve into this is because I do think the phenomena

2500
02:00:46,680 --> 02:00:49,760
Speaker 1: is vastly overstated by, you know, people who have an

2501
02:00:49,760 --> 02:00:52,360
Speaker 1: ideological act to grind against the left and have always

2502
02:00:52,360 --> 02:00:55,440
Speaker 1: hated Bernie and Bernie supporters whatever, and I think ignores

2503
02:00:56,360 --> 02:01:00,680
Speaker 1: other like ignores for example, that Tulsi endor Speiden time around,

2504
02:01:00,800 --> 02:01:03,640
Speaker 1: you know, and that many other figures have moved to

2505
02:01:03,680 --> 02:01:05,600
Speaker 1: the right who were not burning people.

2506
02:01:05,640 --> 02:01:07,920
Speaker 2: But there's a quote going around that Tulca actually said

2507
02:01:07,920 --> 02:01:10,480
Speaker 2: to us in twenty nineteen, Oh, really think about Donald Trump.

2508
02:01:10,560 --> 02:01:11,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I see it all the time.

2509
02:01:11,680 --> 02:01:12,280
Speaker 4: Oh what was it?

2510
02:01:12,640 --> 02:01:13,800
Speaker 3: Let me find it?

2511
02:01:13,440 --> 02:01:16,000
Speaker 4: It takes well, well you're looking that up.

2512
02:01:16,000 --> 02:01:18,040
Speaker 1: I'll also tell people The New York Times actually quoted

2513
02:01:18,080 --> 02:01:20,600
Speaker 1: the last interview that you did because I was out,

2514
02:01:20,680 --> 02:01:22,640
Speaker 1: I don't know where. It was, on vacation or something

2515
02:01:23,080 --> 02:01:26,080
Speaker 1: with RK. Junior was apparently the last time he criticized

2516
02:01:26,080 --> 02:01:28,760
Speaker 1: Trump was on our show with you in that interview

2517
02:01:28,800 --> 02:01:30,720
Speaker 1: and he said he was a quote terrible president.

2518
02:01:30,840 --> 02:01:32,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, it wasn't very long ago.

2519
02:01:32,400 --> 02:01:33,720
Speaker 3: Guys, twenty nineteen.

2520
02:01:33,760 --> 02:01:35,640
Speaker 2: Look, there is no question in my mind, Donald Trump

2521
02:01:35,720 --> 02:01:38,000
Speaker 2: is unfit to service president commander of Chiefs. I've said

2522
02:01:38,000 --> 02:01:40,280
Speaker 2: this over and over again, Gabbart told host Crystal Ball

2523
02:01:40,320 --> 02:01:41,120
Speaker 2: at Soccer Jetty.

2524
02:01:41,200 --> 02:01:43,320
Speaker 3: So that was I mean, it was twenty nineteen. So

2525
02:01:43,360 --> 02:01:44,440
Speaker 3: a lot of things have changed.

2526
02:01:44,880 --> 02:01:47,920
Speaker 2: But again, if you look at the reward system and

2527
02:01:48,160 --> 02:01:52,200
Speaker 2: you the same thing that we think about of Nicole

2528
02:01:52,280 --> 02:01:56,320
Speaker 2: Wallace of the bill, Crystal pipeline completely applies the other

2529
02:01:56,360 --> 02:01:58,760
Speaker 2: way around for voting block, I mean, and the same

2530
02:01:58,800 --> 02:02:01,560
Speaker 2: way the voting blocks all so does not follow elite

2531
02:02:01,600 --> 02:02:05,040
Speaker 2: opinion or that type of opinion. Most people who supported

2532
02:02:05,120 --> 02:02:08,920
Speaker 2: McCain support Trump. Now, did he loose some people on

2533
02:02:08,960 --> 02:02:13,440
Speaker 2: the margins, Yeah, but vast majority of Republicans are still Republicans.

2534
02:02:13,800 --> 02:02:17,160
Speaker 2: Vast majority of burning people are mostly still Democrats. So

2535
02:02:17,200 --> 02:02:19,320
Speaker 2: if you look at the voters, it's different. There's another

2536
02:02:19,360 --> 02:02:21,560
Speaker 2: thing too where look, you know, since we're being honest

2537
02:02:21,800 --> 02:02:25,320
Speaker 2: about the open online phenomenon, sometimes, you know, if you

2538
02:02:25,320 --> 02:02:27,560
Speaker 2: want to keep your channel growing, by definition, you have

2539
02:02:27,600 --> 02:02:29,720
Speaker 2: to bring the more people in. And so if you

2540
02:02:29,720 --> 02:02:32,560
Speaker 2: see a drop in left whatever, then what do you do.

2541
02:02:32,680 --> 02:02:35,240
Speaker 2: You kind of chase whatever continues and then you lean

2542
02:02:35,280 --> 02:02:37,840
Speaker 2: into a little bit of that anybody is guilty of it.

2543
02:02:37,880 --> 02:02:39,880
Speaker 2: And you know, obviously, like you said, it'd be very easy,

2544
02:02:40,000 --> 02:02:42,800
Speaker 2: actually be to grow the channel even more to just

2545
02:02:42,920 --> 02:02:45,760
Speaker 2: post about certain subjects. It doesn't take a genius to

2546
02:02:45,840 --> 02:02:47,800
Speaker 2: figure all of that. We resist quite a bit of

2547
02:02:47,800 --> 02:02:49,160
Speaker 2: it here, and.

2548
02:02:49,200 --> 02:02:51,400
Speaker 4: We can because we have insights that you can see

2549
02:02:51,440 --> 02:02:54,760
Speaker 4: so clearly which channels are just yeah, just writing the

2550
02:02:54,760 --> 02:02:55,400
Speaker 4: algorithm right.

2551
02:02:55,480 --> 02:02:56,360
Speaker 3: Yeah.

2552
02:02:56,480 --> 02:02:59,080
Speaker 2: Now, in general, though, the caution is you're probably going

2553
02:02:59,160 --> 02:03:00,560
Speaker 2: to get burned, you know, in the long run. The

2554
02:03:00,600 --> 02:03:02,960
Speaker 2: people who do that, you get burned, and you almost

2555
02:03:03,000 --> 02:03:04,080
Speaker 2: never make it in the.

2556
02:03:04,040 --> 02:03:06,400
Speaker 1: Long because it becomes clear to the audience as well,

2557
02:03:06,440 --> 02:03:08,960
Speaker 1: and you're just become predictable to you know. It's like

2558
02:03:09,040 --> 02:03:11,480
Speaker 1: if you're just always riding the wave of whatever is

2559
02:03:11,520 --> 02:03:15,760
Speaker 1: the popular online thing, then eventually, yeah, it's going to

2560
02:03:15,800 --> 02:03:18,040
Speaker 1: become unsustainable. People are going to get bored with it,

2561
02:03:18,040 --> 02:03:20,520
Speaker 1: they're going to move on whatever. So it is a

2562
02:03:20,640 --> 02:03:22,760
Speaker 1: short term strategy that can be very successful.

2563
02:03:22,880 --> 02:03:24,480
Speaker 4: Long term strategy not I.

2564
02:03:24,400 --> 02:03:26,600
Speaker 2: Don't think it works, but you know, there's been a

2565
02:03:26,640 --> 02:03:28,360
Speaker 2: decent amount of money to be made in the short term.

2566
02:03:28,360 --> 02:03:31,320
Speaker 2: That's usually the analysis that all those people have. We're

2567
02:03:31,360 --> 02:03:33,760
Speaker 2: already running late, so we can cut it here. Everybody

2568
02:03:33,800 --> 02:03:36,800
Speaker 2: have a good Labor Day weekend, Chrystally, you'll have analysis

2569
02:03:36,840 --> 02:03:37,360
Speaker 2: on the common.

2570
02:03:37,320 --> 02:03:39,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm I'm going to react to the interview. Soccer's

2571
02:03:39,560 --> 02:03:41,640
Speaker 1: gonna be out, so it's not that I'm kicking out

2572
02:03:41,640 --> 02:03:44,440
Speaker 1: from responding to, you know, comrade.

2573
02:03:43,960 --> 02:03:45,080
Speaker 3: Harris flying to London.

2574
02:03:45,240 --> 02:03:48,280
Speaker 4: Everybody leave me, but yeah, so I'll react to that.

2575
02:03:48,480 --> 02:03:51,080
Speaker 1: We are going to be off on Mondnday, that's right,

2576
02:03:51,640 --> 02:03:53,040
Speaker 1: So we'll see you back here on Tuesday.

2577
02:03:53,080 --> 02:03:53,720
Speaker 3: See you Tuesday.

2578
02:04:02,640 --> 02:04:03,280
Speaker 11: Inst