1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:13,840 Speaker 2: This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg, Instant reaction 3 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:17,959 Speaker 2: and analysis from our three thousand journalists and analysts around 4 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:22,840 Speaker 2: the world. Welcome to the program. Equities recovering. There was 5 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 2: a drop off as soon as Chairman Power started to speak. 6 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 2: We're back to about negative zero point two percent on 7 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 2: the S and P, the bigger losses on the Russell, 8 00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:32,159 Speaker 2: the small camps down by zero point eight in the 9 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 2: bond market off the back of these comments from Chairman 10 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:36,360 Speaker 2: pow Bonyota at the front end of the curve by 11 00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:39,680 Speaker 2: nine to ten basis points, a twenty five basis point 12 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 2: reduction from the Federal Reserve two way descent, the limited 13 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:46,000 Speaker 2: ability to guide from here and these comments from the 14 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:48,520 Speaker 2: Chairman of the Federal Reserve take a listen. 15 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:52,360 Speaker 3: A further reduction to policy. Read of December meeting is 16 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 3: not a foregone conclusion yet a time when we have 17 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 3: tension between our two goals. We have, you know, strong 18 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 3: views across us the committee, and as I mentioned, there 19 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:05,640 Speaker 3: were strongly different views today and the takeaway from that 20 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 3: is that we haven't made a decision about December, and 21 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:10,080 Speaker 3: you know we're going to be looking at the data 22 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:12,760 Speaker 3: that we have how that affects the outlook and the 23 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 3: balance of risks. And I'll just say. 24 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 2: That a December rite cut is far from a folk 25 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:22,479 Speaker 2: on conclusion. That was a prepared remark. It was scripted TK. 26 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:23,959 Speaker 2: It was heavy with intense. 27 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:25,920 Speaker 1: I love when they looked down at the script. I 28 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:28,320 Speaker 1: mean you wonder what percentage of the press conferences. 29 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:31,840 Speaker 2: Thanks, It gave you extra menic that would be intent 30 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 2: to come into this room and sound everybody, including wool Street. 31 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:36,480 Speaker 2: We're not making a cool come down. 32 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:38,680 Speaker 1: We're way down. And when we get the tourists this lock, 33 00:01:38,760 --> 00:01:40,840 Speaker 1: I want to really dive into that. I need to 34 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 1: frame this, Johnathan. It's so important. We've had this spectacular 35 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 1: move lower in the ten year yield down to three 36 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:50,280 Speaker 1: point nine whatever. Oh mg, we've come back four point 37 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:53,480 Speaker 1: zero five percent at seven eight beeps move. It's only 38 00:01:53,640 --> 00:02:00,920 Speaker 1: center tendency on two standard deviations were by no means price. Rather, 39 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:03,960 Speaker 1: price has not cratered in the last twenty minutes. 40 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 2: Low endered arrange for years still type with you. Bond 41 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:09,680 Speaker 2: market's been super well behaved. When the FED last mat 42 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:12,519 Speaker 2: back in September twos we're near three fifty tens to 43 00:02:12,520 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 2: were near four percent right now, TK twos near three 44 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:16,960 Speaker 2: sixty tens near four percent. 45 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 1: There's gonna be a lot of hyperventilation about this tomorrow. 46 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:21,679 Speaker 1: I'm also looking at the currency market, which I think 47 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:25,520 Speaker 1: is extraordinary into the Trump g meeting, and you know, 48 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:27,520 Speaker 1: it's a side story. I get it. It's not the 49 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 1: Fed decides, it's maybe the president's decides on trade. But 50 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:33,639 Speaker 1: it's a backstory to this. It will be interesting in 51 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 1: the next couple days. 52 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 2: Got a strength this afternoon euro dollar one fifteen eighty two, 53 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 2: euro dollar down by zero point six percent. TK mentioned 54 00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:43,800 Speaker 2: it Tilston's block of Apollo with us around the table, Tilston, 55 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 2: good afternoon, going to see you. What's the big takeaway 56 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:47,480 Speaker 2: for you from that, Well. 57 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 4: That they do have clarity on the CPI on the 58 00:02:49,480 --> 00:02:52,240 Speaker 4: infliction side, but there was a lot of questions about 59 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:54,520 Speaker 4: the level market. And it was very clear that he 60 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 4: came into this saying the legal market is still chugging along, 61 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 4: moving sideways, slightly cooling, and he didn't mention any of 62 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 4: the private sector indicators. So he did basically say, we 63 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:09,320 Speaker 4: don't quite know exactly what's happening in label market, but 64 00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:11,400 Speaker 4: we still feel quite good about it. So that's why 65 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:13,680 Speaker 4: he came to the conclusion inflation is too high. The 66 00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 4: label market is still okay. Therefore, there is no foregone 67 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:17,640 Speaker 4: conclusion about December. 68 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:20,240 Speaker 2: How difficult is it to carry on kind of interest rates? 69 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 1: It is very. 70 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:23,639 Speaker 4: Difficult because the label market does have a number of 71 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:26,200 Speaker 4: indicators that are very important for this discussion. There is 72 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:29,320 Speaker 4: of course ADP, which we just got and thankfully now 73 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:32,079 Speaker 4: it's weekly. If you just think about the number fourteen 74 00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 4: thousand was the average weekly number for the last four weeks. 75 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 4: If you multiply that by FOAR, you get some estimate 76 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:39,880 Speaker 4: of what that means on a monthly basis. That means 77 00:03:39,880 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 4: that monthly job growth at the moment is in round 78 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:44,680 Speaker 4: numbers around fifty thousand. We just got a FED paper 79 00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 4: a few weeks ago saying that the new equilibrium rate 80 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:49,960 Speaker 4: for nonfound pay roads is thirty thousand. So by that measure, 81 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 4: the label market is actually strong. You know, the words 82 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:55,680 Speaker 4: job growth is stronger than what the FED itself thinks 83 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 4: that it should be in the long run, because fifty 84 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 4: is higher than thirty. And the conclusion therefore, now you 85 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 4: suddenly have that both the label marget is actually doing 86 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 4: a little bit better than expected, and inflation is still 87 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 4: a three, which of course makes it very difficult for 88 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:09,920 Speaker 4: them to begin cutting again in December. 89 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 1: You let me follow up on that though. Is that 90 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:16,479 Speaker 1: politically acceptable to have a mid one hundred thousand number 91 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 1: thirty forty fifty thousand. There's no way that plays in Washington. 92 00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:23,560 Speaker 4: Well, at least the Dallas Fed who produced the number 93 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 4: had some very good arguments for that. There were two 94 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:28,080 Speaker 4: reasons why they Equilibri and RADA gone down from two 95 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:31,120 Speaker 4: hundred thousand last year to only thirty thousand today, which 96 00:04:31,279 --> 00:04:34,360 Speaker 4: was immigration has been slowing down significantly and the demographic 97 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:36,440 Speaker 4: hit wins also weighing on the road. 98 00:04:36,520 --> 00:04:38,720 Speaker 1: This is so important with your heritage. I think it 99 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:41,520 Speaker 1: really works out. What is the level or the new 100 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 1: new of their ex post right now? To me, they're 101 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:49,719 Speaker 1: almost redefining away. Did you hear forward guidance in the 102 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 1: press conference? I don't think what, God, I'll take that. 103 00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:57,400 Speaker 1: Maybe backward guidance is the new phrase. Paint the character 104 00:04:57,880 --> 00:05:01,919 Speaker 1: doctor slock of our X post nature now. 105 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:03,919 Speaker 4: Well, the challenge also is not only did they not 106 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:06,159 Speaker 4: only mention forward guidance, but also he didn't talk about 107 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:08,840 Speaker 4: data dependent because there is not much data. And if 108 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:10,600 Speaker 4: you say data dependent, that means that they're putting a 109 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 4: lot of data on the private sector data. And he 110 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:15,159 Speaker 4: didn't mention some of the private sector data. That asking 111 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:17,279 Speaker 4: is very important for the label market, not only ADP. 112 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:20,000 Speaker 4: That's also the of course challenge are great and Christmas 113 00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 4: job cut announcements. There's also a new data from macro 114 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:23,960 Speaker 4: itch that also. 115 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:25,760 Speaker 1: Looks like you love ism. 116 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:28,200 Speaker 4: There is also the ism data that it still says 117 00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:30,440 Speaker 4: that the label market is okay. There's also link up 118 00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 4: job openings. There's also indeed job openings. There's also paychecks 119 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:37,280 Speaker 4: which is also looking at employment. All these indicators combined 120 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:39,760 Speaker 4: still tell a story of the label market actually still 121 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:41,840 Speaker 4: hanging in there. So it's not the case that the 122 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:44,520 Speaker 4: label market is falling out of bed. It's still the 123 00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:46,919 Speaker 4: case that the label market is okay. And combined with 124 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 4: inflation at three, remember the FETs target is two, so 125 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:53,440 Speaker 4: inflation is still way above the FET target, there is 126 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:55,720 Speaker 4: just not room to cut rates more. In particular, not 127 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 4: as he also talked about, if you begin to worry 128 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:00,600 Speaker 4: about if inflation expectations begin to become interan. 129 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 2: Tell us them what you're saying, begs an obvious question. 130 00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:04,719 Speaker 2: What I'm hearing from you is we've seen a step 131 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:07,560 Speaker 2: down in payrolls growth. We haven't seen an increase in 132 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:11,440 Speaker 2: labor market slack. Inflation is running at three unemployment still 133 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:14,359 Speaker 2: close to four GDPs tracking around three percent at the 134 00:06:14,360 --> 00:06:17,160 Speaker 2: moment in this country. If that's the case, why did 135 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:18,400 Speaker 2: they just cut interest rates? 136 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:22,160 Speaker 4: Well, his argument was also very very carefully articulated, namely 137 00:06:22,240 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 4: that we are trying to get closer to our star. 138 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:28,360 Speaker 4: So it's back to this excuse me, peculiar interest in 139 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:30,919 Speaker 4: that there is some very academic calman field that you 140 00:06:30,960 --> 00:06:33,040 Speaker 4: can do and figure out whereas the level of interest 141 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:35,960 Speaker 4: rates where we should be, and say this was recalibrating 142 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:38,520 Speaker 4: monetary policy to that level. It really is a very 143 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:42,240 Speaker 4: excuse me, unwaving academic discussion relative to what the actual 144 00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:44,080 Speaker 4: data that you just listed. And if you add also 145 00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:47,719 Speaker 4: the Elena FLGDP now almost four percent for the last quarter, 146 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:50,120 Speaker 4: where are we in terms of thinking about this slowdown? 147 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:52,240 Speaker 4: There is just not much sign of a slowdown when 148 00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 4: it comes to the real. 149 00:06:53,120 --> 00:06:55,320 Speaker 2: Please forgive the snark, but the way they talk about 150 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:57,840 Speaker 2: things like neutral in our star, do these lights start 151 00:06:57,880 --> 00:07:00,480 Speaker 2: flashing off in the FMC room and the order him 152 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:02,400 Speaker 2: at the federal surf. You've hit it. Well done, guys, 153 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:04,719 Speaker 2: stop right there. What are they actually looking at to 154 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:05,600 Speaker 2: guide that decision? 155 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 4: Well, I do think that there is an intellectual camaraderie 156 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:11,520 Speaker 4: around our styles saying yeah, I know what you mean 157 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 4: when you talk about our style, and of course we've 158 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 4: got to get down to our style. But the interesting 159 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 4: thing of bottles with also this is that if you 160 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:19,520 Speaker 4: really are saying at the Dallas fit that there is 161 00:07:19,560 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 4: now a thirty thousand non found payroll level, that actually 162 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:23,520 Speaker 4: means that USTA it's actually low. 163 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:27,800 Speaker 1: One j Greg Hip has been wonderful about this. We're 164 00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 1: in God's name. Is the output gap right now with 165 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 1: meta here in twenty five thirty five minutes at Google? 166 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:40,400 Speaker 1: What we see tomorrow with Apple? Microsoft? The speech that 167 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 1: in video gave the other day, Are you kidding me? 168 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:45,800 Speaker 1: We have no clue for the American output gap? 169 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:48,160 Speaker 4: Well, and that's why from a monetary policy perspective, it 170 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:51,000 Speaker 4: is really interesting because if you look at the Magnificent seven, 171 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:53,760 Speaker 4: they all finance by equity prices being high. They're not 172 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 4: sensitive to the fitfunds rate, whereas the S and P 173 00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:59,120 Speaker 4: four ninety three is very sensitive to the fitfunds rate 174 00:07:59,200 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 4: is a. 175 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:02,240 Speaker 1: Poll of globle management. Part of the magnificence of it. 176 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:05,280 Speaker 2: They should be, they should be. Mike McKay was in 177 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 2: the room. He was in the news conference, and Mike McKay, 178 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:11,400 Speaker 2: thank you for asking about financial conditions and financial markets. 179 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:13,480 Speaker 2: Mike McKay, what was the takeaway for you? Set? 180 00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:16,560 Speaker 5: I think the absolute takeaway is that the FED is 181 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:19,080 Speaker 5: probably going to pause in December unless there's some data 182 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 5: that forces them to do another cut. There was a 183 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:27,640 Speaker 5: sort of almost Freudian slipped by the chairman close to 184 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:30,480 Speaker 5: the end of the news conference when he said if 185 00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:33,320 Speaker 5: we cut again, and then he quickly. 186 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:35,240 Speaker 2: Backcrapped and said we will at some point. 187 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:37,959 Speaker 5: But I think that the mood of the committee now 188 00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 5: is we've done enough. Let's sit back and see what happens, 189 00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:43,960 Speaker 5: especially without any data, and given the fact that inflation 190 00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:47,040 Speaker 5: is still rising. You know that at the beginning when 191 00:08:47,080 --> 00:08:50,280 Speaker 5: he was giving us the rundown of the economy, he said, 192 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 5: extrapolating the CPI into PCEE suggests that it rose at 193 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:57,320 Speaker 5: two point eight percent. Well, it was two point seven 194 00:08:57,360 --> 00:09:00,320 Speaker 5: percent in the prior reading, so it just showed you 195 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:03,720 Speaker 5: that inflation is still rising at a time when he 196 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 5: had a hard time making a case that unemployment is 197 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 5: a real problem. So I think the takeaway is don't 198 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:13,800 Speaker 5: expect much from the Fed in December unless the government 199 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:15,640 Speaker 5: gets back to work and we get some data that 200 00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:16,440 Speaker 5: changed their mind. 201 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:20,120 Speaker 2: Michael McKay, you have covered the Federals for decades. Volka 202 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:24,640 Speaker 2: through green Span, Bananke, Yellen, the likes of Cham and 203 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:29,400 Speaker 2: Pow Mike is the era of almighty Fed, Chad dominance 204 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:31,480 Speaker 2: and power on the committze. Has it come to a close? 205 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:34,520 Speaker 5: Well, I think that's another way of saying that I'm 206 00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 5: old John, But I don't think it's come to a close. 207 00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:41,360 Speaker 5: It's just changed a lot. When you had Paul Vulker, 208 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 5: he was very firm in what he wanted to do, 209 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:45,880 Speaker 5: but he came in during a crisis, so he was 210 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:48,719 Speaker 5: able to marshal the troops to do that, and then 211 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:51,560 Speaker 5: they rebelled against him. Green Span did it differently. 212 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 2: He ran the FED as. 213 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 5: If it were his own and they did what basically 214 00:09:56,520 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 5: he wanted them to do. But starting with Ben Bernanki 215 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:01,760 Speaker 5: and following with Jennet Yell and j Pollo, it's become 216 00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:05,280 Speaker 5: much more collegial, and the chair now is more in 217 00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:08,440 Speaker 5: a situation where they are taking the temperature of everyone 218 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:11,479 Speaker 5: there and trying to figure out what the best consensus 219 00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:16,200 Speaker 5: move would be. And I suspect that that's what members 220 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 5: of the Board and the Open Market Committee would like 221 00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:22,320 Speaker 5: to see happen going forward. Don't know, given the names 222 00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 5: of various people who are among the finalists to replace J. Powell, 223 00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 5: whether we would have an attempt to go back to 224 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:32,439 Speaker 5: this strong chairman view or whether we would still continue 225 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:33,360 Speaker 5: with consensus. 226 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:36,439 Speaker 2: Can they wrestle control from that committee? Thank you so 227 00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:39,319 Speaker 2: fantastic work. You know. Oh you're brilliant, Mike McKay that 228 00:10:39,640 --> 00:10:42,320 Speaker 2: in Washington, d C appreciate it. You're brilliant too. 229 00:10:42,400 --> 00:10:42,679 Speaker 1: TK. 230 00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:44,280 Speaker 2: You know this love come on, this is far enough 231 00:10:44,320 --> 00:10:46,480 Speaker 2: love to go. But yes, it might be a little 232 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:49,200 Speaker 2: bit more than me. Tilston, you're still with us Tauson's 233 00:10:49,280 --> 00:10:50,800 Speaker 2: luck of Apollo. By the way, if you're just joining 234 00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:53,080 Speaker 2: guest Tustin, Bob Michael of JP. Malcolm is on the 235 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:55,800 Speaker 2: program with me and TK earlier on this Southternoon and 236 00:10:55,880 --> 00:10:58,160 Speaker 2: he made the case after this decision dropped and we 237 00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:01,120 Speaker 2: saw the two way descent that the Chairlesing Grip of 238 00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:03,719 Speaker 2: this committee. What's your tak on that, Well, it. 239 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:06,320 Speaker 4: Is a very unusual situation to have someone in the 240 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:08,439 Speaker 4: committee the things that raids should have been on hold, 241 00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 4: meaning that could other direction than other members here in 242 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 4: this case Deve Miran who thought that she should have 243 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:16,120 Speaker 4: been cutting. So it is a very challenging environment. Of course, 244 00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:18,200 Speaker 4: Well whoever is the FET chair and whoever walks in 245 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:20,559 Speaker 4: to be the next FET chair to try to get 246 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:23,679 Speaker 4: a consensus on the committee. There is so much work 247 00:11:23,800 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 4: that goes into from the chair whoever it is, to 248 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:29,440 Speaker 4: try to get a decision that is unanimous and that 249 00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:32,000 Speaker 4: is a common ground and saying this is the way 250 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:34,839 Speaker 4: we're walking, and this is the direction we're traveling. Now 251 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:37,600 Speaker 4: that there's more uncertainty about this. One reason why raids 252 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:40,440 Speaker 4: are going up is also because well maybe now Smith 253 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:42,080 Speaker 4: is not the only dest and maybe there are others 254 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:43,720 Speaker 4: that come around next time and say, well maybe we 255 00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:45,920 Speaker 4: shouldn't be cutting, or maybe there might maybe someone said 256 00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:47,760 Speaker 4: maybe we should be hiking. So that's why I do 257 00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:49,600 Speaker 4: think there was already a dot in the dot pat 258 00:11:49,679 --> 00:11:51,360 Speaker 4: last time that said that Rich should be going higher 259 00:11:51,360 --> 00:11:53,800 Speaker 4: in December. I think that now We know that that 260 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:55,800 Speaker 4: was Smid from the Kansas City Fed. So yes, it 261 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 4: is getting becoming a much more challenging exercise. Normally we 262 00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:01,959 Speaker 4: just talk about inflation unemployment, but this is no longer 263 00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:02,800 Speaker 4: just about invasions. 264 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:04,640 Speaker 1: The heart of this we're gonna get the Rosenberg. But 265 00:12:04,679 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 1: the heart of this, John is he's lane duck. That's 266 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:11,920 Speaker 1: all there is to it. Great, it's it's October. He's 267 00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:13,719 Speaker 1: supposed to begin to be lame duck. 268 00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:16,520 Speaker 2: So let's fast forward to December. Just think about for 269 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:19,840 Speaker 2: a moment, how much honey message put out forecasts probably 270 00:12:19,880 --> 00:12:22,200 Speaker 2: know who the new FED chair is? How much past 271 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:24,480 Speaker 2: chair and power? Can I have a December meeting knowing 272 00:12:24,520 --> 00:12:27,679 Speaker 2: who is replacement is potentially once we come around to May, 273 00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 2: I agree. 274 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:31,120 Speaker 1: And of course, as we've said three or four times today, 275 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:34,440 Speaker 1: you know, not me, but others are saying the Secretary 276 00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 1: of Treasury could be involved as well. 277 00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:39,280 Speaker 2: Jeff Rosenberg of Black Rocks Running, Jeff, welcome to the program. 278 00:12:39,320 --> 00:12:41,559 Speaker 2: I won't mention Rick, We'll leave that to one side. 279 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:44,000 Speaker 2: We'll keep you in you know a company. Why not 280 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 2: keep you out of trouble? What about it? No, Jeff, seriously, 281 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:49,400 Speaker 2: Jeff Rosenberg number one take away from that decision this 282 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 2: afternoon and that news conference too. 283 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:55,320 Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean the number one takeaway is the is 284 00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:58,520 Speaker 6: the comments on December, the comment on slow down when 285 00:12:58,520 --> 00:13:00,920 Speaker 6: you're driving in the fog. You know, you know, it's 286 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 6: interesting you guys were picking up on him reading in 287 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:06,520 Speaker 6: the notes and whether that was very much pre planned. 288 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:10,760 Speaker 6: I think what you see here is a repricing of 289 00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:13,959 Speaker 6: market pricing to December. You know, going into this meeting, 290 00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:16,760 Speaker 6: it was basically a foregone conclusion. It was one hundred percent. 291 00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:18,560 Speaker 6: When you come out of the meeting and you see 292 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:21,959 Speaker 6: the descents on both sides and you recall the division 293 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:25,120 Speaker 6: within the committee, you could say that that is an 294 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:30,600 Speaker 6: appropriate repricing to the really realization that there's more two 295 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:33,719 Speaker 6: sided risks to the Fed's decision than the market was 296 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:37,599 Speaker 6: pricing in it. And perhaps that comment was engineered to 297 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:40,679 Speaker 6: kind of push that forward. Maybe it wasn't, but the 298 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:42,959 Speaker 6: reality is that's what the market reaction is, and you 299 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:45,439 Speaker 6: can see that that's, you know, a very reasonable reaction 300 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:47,400 Speaker 6: to what we saw from the committee today. 301 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:49,800 Speaker 1: Owned an audible here, we got Tourston Slock and Jeffrey 302 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:52,000 Speaker 1: Rosenberg with us, and that is good and wonderful with 303 00:13:52,120 --> 00:13:55,040 Speaker 1: their financial and economic Now it's Turston. You have a 304 00:13:55,160 --> 00:14:00,440 Speaker 1: blistering sentence in your note of your concerns over private credit. 305 00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:03,560 Speaker 1: I would suggest for Global Wall Street into the next 306 00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:07,160 Speaker 1: FED meeting and beyond, there's going to be further challenges 307 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:11,080 Speaker 1: here about the opaqueness in private credit. With you, with 308 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:15,319 Speaker 1: all of your resources that apollow global management. How blind 309 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:17,840 Speaker 1: are we to where we're heading in the pricing of 310 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:18,560 Speaker 1: private credit? 311 00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:22,320 Speaker 4: That discussion is totally misguided. In public markets, I can 312 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:24,880 Speaker 4: get something that's safe, I can get something that's risky. 313 00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 4: In private markets, I can get something that's safe, I 314 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:30,040 Speaker 4: can get something that's risky. So there is no difference. 315 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:33,040 Speaker 4: It really is all about do you want a risky investment? 316 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:35,360 Speaker 4: Do you want a safe investment? Something in the public 317 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:38,400 Speaker 4: market is investment grade, something that private market is investment great. 318 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 4: So this discussion around what's happening in the last few weeks, yes, 319 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:44,080 Speaker 4: there might be a few cockroaches in the sense that 320 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:46,840 Speaker 4: there have certainly been some things that have been going on, 321 00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 4: but interestingly enough, those were basically all broad the syndicated loans, 322 00:14:50,960 --> 00:14:53,040 Speaker 4: meaning this were things that we're trading tick by tick, 323 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:56,120 Speaker 4: minute by minute in the public market. So why is 324 00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:58,680 Speaker 4: the discussion about what's happening in private credit relevant for this? 325 00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 4: These were cockroach in the public market that showed up 326 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 4: in public maalge Jeff Rosenberg. 327 00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:05,600 Speaker 1: Will this effect the Fed? I mean it's just as 328 00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:08,160 Speaker 1: simple as that. If we have Wall Street instability and 329 00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:11,080 Speaker 1: fear about this with all your work at Carnegie Mellon, 330 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:13,520 Speaker 1: can they ignore those cockroaches? 331 00:15:15,560 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 6: Well, it gets back to some of the earlier comments 332 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:21,320 Speaker 6: about you know, the questions that he got on financial conditions, 333 00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:24,160 Speaker 6: and you know, to what extent does financial conditions sort 334 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:26,440 Speaker 6: of factor into the Fed's decision? And I think what 335 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:29,600 Speaker 6: we see as an asymmetry here that financial conditions aren't 336 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:34,359 Speaker 6: really factoring into their decisions to cut rates here financial conditions. 337 00:15:34,560 --> 00:15:38,000 Speaker 6: You saw him parry the questions around interest rates and 338 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:41,640 Speaker 6: AI basically you know, brushing them aside, saying AI financing 339 00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:43,960 Speaker 6: has nothing to do with rates, which is true on 340 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:46,160 Speaker 6: a first order effect, but not necessarily on the second 341 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:49,920 Speaker 6: order effect, to the extent that interest rates broadly are 342 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 6: creating very easy financial conditions, and they're contributing to the 343 00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:58,840 Speaker 6: increase in financial conditions easing especially that we saw since 344 00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 6: the FED. It did you know, to the labor market 345 00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:05,400 Speaker 6: slow down that took us from you know, measurements that 346 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:08,640 Speaker 6: were sort of more optimistic to measurements that were kind 347 00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:10,880 Speaker 6: of more on the euphoria side. But I think the 348 00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 6: asymmetry here is that the FED will respond to tightening 349 00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:18,600 Speaker 6: financial conditions after they're realized to the earlier you know, 350 00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:22,080 Speaker 6: interchange on you know, X post and data dependence. This 351 00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:24,600 Speaker 6: is a FED that will be reactive. And I think 352 00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:26,920 Speaker 6: what's very clear is the Fed's not really paying a 353 00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:31,080 Speaker 6: lot of attentions to financial conditions going into this cycle, 354 00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:34,440 Speaker 6: but they will, as they have been, you know, ever 355 00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:40,360 Speaker 6: since the GSC GF GF GFC, that they'll be very 356 00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 6: responsive financial conditions for things that have nothing to do 357 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:47,440 Speaker 6: with the FED end up tightening, the FED will react 358 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:50,160 Speaker 6: into that with with with a massive cut in interest 359 00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:54,800 Speaker 6: rates or restoration of zero interest rates, the forward guidance 360 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:57,600 Speaker 6: that you just talked about, balance sheet, all the tools 361 00:16:57,640 --> 00:17:01,000 Speaker 6: that you know were once thought as kind of you know, 362 00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:04,240 Speaker 6: not normal are part of the normal playbook. But they'll 363 00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:08,920 Speaker 6: be in reaction to something that is outside the Fed's 364 00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:11,840 Speaker 6: control here in a tightening. 365 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 2: Of financial condition Jeff, is that still a green light 366 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:15,800 Speaker 2: then a bright green light just a state lung risk, 367 00:17:16,040 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 2: state lung aquacies. 368 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:23,280 Speaker 6: Well, it's a light that says you can't really predict 369 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:26,720 Speaker 6: that on a directional basis. The FED is supportive here. 370 00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:27,800 Speaker 1: That's part of. 371 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:30,280 Speaker 6: Again what we saw and kind of the movement in 372 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 6: the metrics from optimism to euphoria around August September, and 373 00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 6: the Fed's continuing to send that signal with market pricing 374 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:42,159 Speaker 6: coming down a bit, but basically pricing to normalization of 375 00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:47,160 Speaker 6: three percent and the expectation that under any circumstance where 376 00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:50,280 Speaker 6: the FED is faced with an outsize and you heard 377 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:52,919 Speaker 6: in that last question right at the end, you know 378 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:57,920 Speaker 6: the Fed talking about the impact on consumption. This is understated. 379 00:17:57,920 --> 00:17:59,560 Speaker 6: I mean he said it in a very small way, 380 00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:04,120 Speaker 6: but a large shock downward has a significant effect on consumption. 381 00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:06,720 Speaker 6: And what was a little bit understated here is that 382 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:10,560 Speaker 6: the large increase in the wealth effect has been the 383 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 6: support for consumption. It is why we're surprisingly strong in 384 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 6: addition to the lagged implementation and tariff inflation not being 385 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:21,919 Speaker 6: as worrisome. It was really the surge in the wealth 386 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:25,359 Speaker 6: effect and consumption that's leading to the upside surprise. But 387 00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:29,400 Speaker 6: that has a double edged sword. To a larger decline, 388 00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:32,080 Speaker 6: and that's I think the concern around financial conditions tightening. 389 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:34,439 Speaker 2: Jeff, before you go, I promised I wouldn't mentioned Rick, 390 00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:36,560 Speaker 2: but I think it's worth it. You know, I've known 391 00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:38,600 Speaker 2: Rick a long time, You've worked with him a long time. 392 00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:41,000 Speaker 2: Can we just spend a second or something just how 393 00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:43,639 Speaker 2: cool is it that Rick Reader's name is associated with 394 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:44,640 Speaker 2: the Fetchamp position. 395 00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:51,199 Speaker 6: It is very good for you to talk about that, 396 00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:54,240 Speaker 6: and I look forward to hearing more from you on 397 00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:54,840 Speaker 6: that subject. 398 00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:57,879 Speaker 2: Jonathan Okay, Jeff Rosenberg of Black Rook, you avoid it, Jeff, 399 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 2: you avoid it. I think it's fantastic to have someone 400 00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:05,359 Speaker 2: like that. Absolutely just makes the process all the more credible, 401 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:07,960 Speaker 2: which I imagine was the objective of the Treasury Secretary. 402 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:11,200 Speaker 1: Mister Reader brings an entrepreneurial sense here that you don't 403 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:13,320 Speaker 1: get from grizzled economists. 404 00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 2: Understand, this president needs to be. 405 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:18,440 Speaker 1: Hugely lauded for that with the secretary. Can I point 406 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,119 Speaker 1: out in the time we've got left something back to 407 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:24,280 Speaker 1: the late July meeting, So Google, who we're going to 408 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 1: hear from in forty five minutes is up forty two. 409 00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:30,919 Speaker 1: You have to remember, you know, I'm talking about the 410 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:34,840 Speaker 1: food lines in Chicago with Diane Swank. The roulette wheel 411 00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:36,600 Speaker 1: is in full spin right now. 412 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:39,760 Speaker 2: We've got about sixty seconds left. Programs like these traditionally 413 00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:42,239 Speaker 2: obsessed over what can go wrong? Toss and Slot, can 414 00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:44,280 Speaker 2: we finish on what can go right? You put out 415 00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:46,880 Speaker 2: a fantastic note in the last month about the economics 416 00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:48,600 Speaker 2: profession needing to take a long, hard look in the 417 00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:51,080 Speaker 2: mirror and just think about where we are compared to 418 00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 2: where they thought we would be, which is a much 419 00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:53,639 Speaker 2: worse place. 420 00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:56,919 Speaker 4: Absolutely, So the key issue was that Liberation Day is 421 00:19:56,960 --> 00:20:00,639 Speaker 4: now seven months ago and we are still having a 422 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:03,879 Speaker 4: fitchair that talks about delib market is actually doing quite well, 423 00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:06,960 Speaker 4: and we still have inflation above the target. I think 424 00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:09,240 Speaker 4: that we have all been surprised, and of course the 425 00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:11,879 Speaker 4: market has been surprised, and the economics profession has definitely 426 00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:14,680 Speaker 4: been very surprised that the textbook would have predicted a 427 00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:18,160 Speaker 4: much more staflictionary shock, much more upside pressure on inflation, 428 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:21,400 Speaker 4: much more downside pressure on GDP. We have not seen that, 429 00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:24,680 Speaker 4: and some would say yet, but this is the discussion, namely, 430 00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:26,480 Speaker 4: do we still have that, as you just said, as 431 00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:28,639 Speaker 4: a lack of effect in front of us, or is 432 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:30,679 Speaker 4: this it? And then things are only getting availble for here. 433 00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:32,800 Speaker 4: And this is why what the Fed was doing today 434 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:35,040 Speaker 4: was exactly to say, so far we have not seen 435 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:39,160 Speaker 4: that staclationary shock that we expected in April after debriation TK. 436 00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 2: We've been saying yet it's not happened yet for a 437 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 2: long time now, a number of years. 438 00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:47,000 Speaker 1: We're going to get to shut down finished so we 439 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:49,200 Speaker 1: can get the data because we're all blind. 440 00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:52,440 Speaker 2: That's the number one thing right now. We're waiting for earnings. 441 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:54,840 Speaker 2: An interesting mating in the last hour or so Toilston's 442 00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:57,480 Speaker 2: slock of Apollo Taston, thank you sir. The Federal Reserve 443 00:20:57,480 --> 00:21:01,320 Speaker 2: producing interest rates by twenty five bases points descent to 444 00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:04,960 Speaker 2: both sides, and a very very limited ability to guide 445 00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:08,919 Speaker 2: beyond this meeting into December. Equities attempted to turn around 446 00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:12,000 Speaker 2: the opening bow behind us, the closing bow fifteen minutes 447 00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:13,960 Speaker 2: away at a ton of earning still to come. From 448 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:15,520 Speaker 2: New York City. Good afternoon,