WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: April 24th, 2026 0:00:00.040 --> 0:00:06.720 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:15.440 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:18.680 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.280 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.840 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.280 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.919 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:37.000 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin this out 0:00:37.000 --> 0:00:39.680 with tech earnings helping to offset cycnical threats building the 0:00:39.760 --> 0:00:42.800 energy market as US around tensions continue to simm up. 0:00:42.960 --> 0:00:45.839 Bitter chairb Academy securities right in. My best case is 0:00:45.840 --> 0:00:48.479 that the chatter from last week of an impending and 0:00:48.600 --> 0:00:51.360 very strong deal for the US comes to fruition. Pete 0:00:51.400 --> 0:00:53.479 joins us now for more. Pete and Monic Warrick. That's 0:00:53.479 --> 0:00:55.000 your best case. What's your base case? 0:00:55.840 --> 0:00:56.360 Bias case? 0:00:56.400 --> 0:00:58.400 I think is that this continues to struggle and it 0:00:58.400 --> 0:01:00.160 starts weighing a little bit more on the economy. You 0:01:00.160 --> 0:01:02.080 just pointed out We've been looking longer day to futures 0:01:02.120 --> 0:01:05.400 contracts and you're out to eighty dollars in WTI out 0:01:05.440 --> 0:01:08.240 to November now, so that's different, and you're starting in 0:01:08.280 --> 0:01:11.120 those longer months September, October, November, you're actually at the 0:01:11.160 --> 0:01:14.080 highs of the whole cycle. So unlike the front contract, 0:01:14.080 --> 0:01:16.600 which we're still below kind of those spikes, we're seeing 0:01:16.600 --> 0:01:18.920 this kind of push out and it's really hard to 0:01:18.920 --> 0:01:20.960 figure out who's in charge in Iran. So I think 0:01:21.000 --> 0:01:23.480 that's a big issue, and it's really figure out who's 0:01:23.480 --> 0:01:25.200 willing to make that first move. I think when we 0:01:25.200 --> 0:01:28.760 talk to our Geopolitical intelligence group, the consensus view is 0:01:28.800 --> 0:01:31.280 that we will probably to end this war, have to 0:01:31.400 --> 0:01:33.720 escalate once more. To actually win that we will have 0:01:33.760 --> 0:01:35.560 to go in that, we will have to fight, and 0:01:35.600 --> 0:01:38.559 we will have to put pressure on Iran. Trump sometime's 0:01:38.600 --> 0:01:40.839 reluctant to do that right now, but we don't really 0:01:40.840 --> 0:01:42.320 see winning any other way right now. 0:01:42.440 --> 0:01:44.280 Right now, we're not tried in the economy. We're tried 0:01:44.319 --> 0:01:46.880 in the market, and there's slightly different things. The economy 0:01:46.959 --> 0:01:49.000 is not great in Asia, in Europe, there's a real threat. 0:01:49.040 --> 0:01:51.760 In the US, things are okay, but they're better than good. 0:01:52.080 --> 0:01:53.760 If you look at a US tech story and the 0:01:53.800 --> 0:01:56.320 earnings profile of some of the chip makers at the moment, 0:01:56.400 --> 0:01:58.320 what's your best bet in the market, how are you 0:01:58.360 --> 0:02:00.960 allocating capital? What are about have to full well? 0:02:00.960 --> 0:02:03.040 As you know, we've been talking about this production for security, 0:02:03.080 --> 0:02:04.840 so we love that. And Intel was actually one of 0:02:04.840 --> 0:02:06.400 our names we've expect because we did think that the 0:02:06.480 --> 0:02:09.799 US had to grow chip business organically, domestically. I think 0:02:09.840 --> 0:02:12.480 now that's almost I've got to admit I started selling 0:02:12.480 --> 0:02:13.920 a little bit a header earning as I'm probably going 0:02:13.919 --> 0:02:15.480 to be closed a bit more. It's better lucky than 0:02:15.520 --> 0:02:17.959 smart sometimes, but you know, we've had that great play. 0:02:18.120 --> 0:02:19.960 I think you have to start really looking tune out 0:02:19.960 --> 0:02:22.120 of Europe and thinking that Europe is finally going to 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:25.120 get the joke that you have to invest in heavy industry. 0:02:25.320 --> 0:02:27.920 You have to invest in your own electricity production. You 0:02:28.000 --> 0:02:31.079 have to let BP, Shell Totel do what they're good 0:02:31.080 --> 0:02:33.560 at and not so worry. You know, don't worry as 0:02:33.600 --> 0:02:37.200 much about carbon in one degree temperature change is five 0:02:37.280 --> 0:02:39.760 years from now, when the reality is you need electricity, 0:02:39.840 --> 0:02:42.520 need energy. I think they start unleashing some of this. 0:02:42.720 --> 0:02:44.480 They're getting a little bit more creative. I think they're 0:02:44.480 --> 0:02:46.760 getting a little bit more organized, partly because they're getting 0:02:46.760 --> 0:02:48.359 a little bit more desperate. You know, it kind of 0:02:48.360 --> 0:02:50.200 takes them years to figure anything out. They got kicked 0:02:50.200 --> 0:02:52.600 by Russia. Now they're getting kicked by iron. I think 0:02:52.639 --> 0:02:54.400 that's going to be really interesting. So I want to 0:02:54.440 --> 0:02:56.640 own the energy plays. I want to own kind of 0:02:56.639 --> 0:02:59.000 that production for security, not just now in the US, 0:02:59.040 --> 0:03:00.000 but really heavily into US. 0:03:00.320 --> 0:03:02.079 They so we mentioned it briefly. You see the pressure 0:03:02.080 --> 0:03:04.400 on the Europeans and the economy in the PMI data. 0:03:04.560 --> 0:03:05.799 You see it in the markets too. I think the 0:03:05.840 --> 0:03:08.000 euro stocks fifty so far this week is down some 0:03:08.120 --> 0:03:08.680 three percent. 0:03:08.840 --> 0:03:10.560 They are hit in both ways. 0:03:10.639 --> 0:03:12.600 Number one, their energy importers, but they also don't have 0:03:12.600 --> 0:03:14.400 the techt story, And the tech story seems to be 0:03:14.440 --> 0:03:17.119 supporting the market in two ways. On one hand, you've got, 0:03:17.160 --> 0:03:20.079 of course, just the idea that there's upside surprise and 0:03:20.080 --> 0:03:22.760 the equities, but also the investment the capex, which seems 0:03:22.760 --> 0:03:24.600 to be supporting the picks and shovels that we see 0:03:24.680 --> 0:03:27.120 with the semiconductors and the energy stocks in the US. 0:03:27.320 --> 0:03:30.400 And that's been a huge support because that is existential spending. 0:03:30.520 --> 0:03:34.120 It isn't necessarily something that's coming from an obvious use case. 0:03:34.160 --> 0:03:36.680 It takes us the next week. So next week, next Wednesday, 0:03:36.840 --> 0:03:40.640 we get some big earnings from Microsoft, from Meta, from Alphabet. 0:03:40.960 --> 0:03:43.160 They are the big spenders, and some of them are 0:03:43.200 --> 0:03:46.080 also cunning jobs to support that spending. To Lisa's point, 0:03:46.120 --> 0:03:48.440 when they feel like it's existential and they've got the 0:03:48.440 --> 0:03:50.800 balance sheet to carry on spending at least trades, you 0:03:50.840 --> 0:03:52.240 want to be on the wrong side of to get 0:03:52.240 --> 0:03:52.960 on the other side of. 0:03:53.080 --> 0:03:54.640 At the moment, I think we're all kind of waiting 0:03:54.640 --> 0:03:57.000 to see if software can really turn around. So the 0:03:57.040 --> 0:03:59.040 Microsoft story, I think will be really interesting, right can 0:03:59.040 --> 0:04:02.040 we get this turnaround software? And you know I'm him tempted. 0:04:02.040 --> 0:04:03.480 I don't think I'll get to the point this weekend, 0:04:03.520 --> 0:04:05.160 but I want to write the note, like you know, 0:04:05.520 --> 0:04:08.720 your costs or someone else's customers. And I'm getting a 0:04:08.720 --> 0:04:10.800 little bit worried about the job situation. Right we kind 0:04:10.800 --> 0:04:13.720 of have this working poor situation. We have affordability that's 0:04:13.920 --> 0:04:15.840 doing nothing but getting worse right now, and I know 0:04:15.880 --> 0:04:17.599 we kind of focus so much at gas. 0:04:17.480 --> 0:04:17.960 At the pump. 0:04:18.120 --> 0:04:20.040 I'm getting increasingly worried about what's going to happen to 0:04:20.080 --> 0:04:22.159 fuel costs? Right, Diesel is such a big component of 0:04:22.160 --> 0:04:24.680 fuel costs. We haven't even started feeling the impact of 0:04:24.720 --> 0:04:27.839 higher fertilizer prices on food costs. I feel this affordability 0:04:27.839 --> 0:04:29.920 like this working poor and people who are not able 0:04:29.920 --> 0:04:32.719 to make ends meet the way they thought. That income 0:04:32.760 --> 0:04:35.120 line keeps creeping higher and higher. Now you're starting to 0:04:35.200 --> 0:04:37.279 lay off some people, you know, very nice jobs in 0:04:37.320 --> 0:04:39.400 many of these cases. I'm a little bit worried that 0:04:39.440 --> 0:04:42.480 there is a subtext of this economy that's worse and 0:04:42.520 --> 0:04:44.360 that the one thing we're not I'm still trying to 0:04:44.360 --> 0:04:46.719 figure out how to pick this up myself, but I 0:04:46.760 --> 0:04:49.200 feel like we are very good at identifying job loss 0:04:49.320 --> 0:04:51.279 lead recessions. Right we see the job loss, we start 0:04:51.279 --> 0:04:53.279 figuring out we know how to deal with that. I'm 0:04:53.279 --> 0:04:56.440 not sure we've had an affordability led recession, And despite 0:04:56.480 --> 0:04:58.119 the fact that chips and things are doing so well, 0:04:58.240 --> 0:05:01.000 I'm increasingly worried that you're seeing pressure on the consumer 0:05:01.120 --> 0:05:03.320 ways their make hands meet, their make hands meat. 0:05:03.320 --> 0:05:04.320 We got the bump from you know. 0:05:04.279 --> 0:05:06.960 The tax relief and things, where are they two months 0:05:07.000 --> 0:05:07.360 from now? 0:05:07.440 --> 0:05:09.039 So a lot of people will be nodding along and 0:05:09.040 --> 0:05:10.440 they'll be saying, we see this in the data, we 0:05:10.480 --> 0:05:12.520 see this in the sentiment that we have, of course 0:05:12.560 --> 0:05:16.080 coming out through all the surveys that indicate this fear 0:05:16.120 --> 0:05:17.160 about affordability. 0:05:17.680 --> 0:05:19.160 But then stocks. 0:05:18.800 --> 0:05:21.000 Get rewarded for cutting staff and saying that they're going 0:05:21.040 --> 0:05:22.320 to invest in AI instead. 0:05:22.920 --> 0:05:23.640 How awkward is that? 0:05:23.640 --> 0:05:25.080 I mean, do you think that that's going to be 0:05:25.240 --> 0:05:28.440 the theme going forward? That if companies cut a staff 0:05:28.480 --> 0:05:30.960 wholesale and say we're going to invest in AI. That's 0:05:31.000 --> 0:05:32.159 a by the stock moment. 0:05:32.640 --> 0:05:34.640 I think at some point people start getting worried about 0:05:34.640 --> 0:05:38.080 the job losses, and not at that individual company level, 0:05:38.080 --> 0:05:40.279 but at the national level, and say where are we 0:05:40.360 --> 0:05:41.840 And you know it was just what two months ago 0:05:41.920 --> 0:05:43.480 we were going to have the AI took over all 0:05:43.480 --> 0:05:45.920 the jobs, and that kind of narrative disappeared. 0:05:46.240 --> 0:05:47.520 I think that starts coming back right. 0:05:47.520 --> 0:05:49.000 This is a little bit concerning if you're going to 0:05:49.040 --> 0:05:51.440 lose these jobs, who's going to take those jobs? The 0:05:51.440 --> 0:05:53.600 same time, you know, continue to use AI. You hear 0:05:53.600 --> 0:05:55.680 about AI slop and people having to redo work. I 0:05:55.680 --> 0:05:57.560 believe with big law firm just have to make some 0:05:57.600 --> 0:05:59.560 announcement that they'd included some hallucination. 0:05:59.720 --> 0:06:01.960 So this is not yet perfect and we're treating it 0:06:02.000 --> 0:06:04.120 that way. So thanks, you don't want to read it 0:06:04.120 --> 0:06:05.120 for your love and again. 0:06:05.000 --> 0:06:06.680 Yeah, I keep for you looking at the fire side 0:06:06.720 --> 0:06:09.760 and you you might be the only species that extincts ourselves. 0:06:09.800 --> 0:06:11.640 It's like we're sitting there and going out over our week. 0:06:11.720 --> 0:06:13.679 The market's encouraging it. And this is the key point 0:06:13.720 --> 0:06:16.560 Lisa makes it. This was interest Citerni research a number 0:06:16.600 --> 0:06:18.400 of months ago, and I thought it was the most 0:06:18.440 --> 0:06:20.919 important point in that research piece, Lisa was that you 0:06:21.000 --> 0:06:24.000 replace the operation expenses the op X, with the capex, 0:06:24.040 --> 0:06:26.039 and the market rewards you for it. So then you 0:06:26.120 --> 0:06:28.000 drop the opex again, you boost the capex, and the 0:06:28.000 --> 0:06:30.240 market rewards you for it, and that's the labor market 0:06:30.240 --> 0:06:32.120 doom loom, and you end up in this really, really 0:06:32.160 --> 0:06:35.120 bad situation where the market's doing well and rewarding that 0:06:35.200 --> 0:06:37.840 kind of behavior, and unemployment starts to climb. Now, I'm 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:39.479 not saying that's the base case for you, the base 0:06:39.520 --> 0:06:41.159 case for you, or the base case for me. I'm 0:06:41.160 --> 0:06:43.279 just saying that's the fear. That's the fear of what 0:06:43.279 --> 0:06:44.800 could happen in the next several years well. 0:06:44.800 --> 0:06:47.400 And essentially if you start to see companies have to 0:06:47.600 --> 0:06:52.120 justify their expense in capex tied to AI by cutting 0:06:52.120 --> 0:06:54.919 staff for efficiencies, then what does that set us up for? 0:06:55.000 --> 0:06:57.320 I mean, is that essentially what you see going forward, Pete, 0:06:57.360 --> 0:06:59.800 that there's going to be a sense that companies have 0:06:59.839 --> 0:07:02.839 to cut somewhere in order to keep spending on AI 0:07:02.960 --> 0:07:04.240 at the speed that they have been. 0:07:04.360 --> 0:07:06.240 There's certainly some of that sense right now. And again 0:07:06.279 --> 0:07:07.960 I think they're going to get more and more investment 0:07:08.000 --> 0:07:10.880 in the semiconductor industry, right I think that's just one A. 0:07:11.040 --> 0:07:12.120 You've got these companies. B. 0:07:12.320 --> 0:07:14.680 You can start looking at places like Nokia ericson what 0:07:14.760 --> 0:07:16.920 in Europe might benefit if Europe can kind of get 0:07:16.960 --> 0:07:19.720 serious about AI. You've seen some smaller companies. You know 0:07:19.760 --> 0:07:21.720 that Blackbeer I think is a company I own a 0:07:21.760 --> 0:07:23.840 small bit of. All of a sudden, that's interesting because 0:07:23.840 --> 0:07:26.560 they're doing something in the space. So you're seeing kind 0:07:26.600 --> 0:07:28.480 of every and I think, look to okay, what else 0:07:28.480 --> 0:07:30.520 can benefit. I think that's going to drive that part 0:07:30.560 --> 0:07:32.720 of the market. I think it continues to do pretty well. 0:07:33.200 --> 0:07:35.600 Can I just get funn of word on government intervention? 0:07:36.000 --> 0:07:38.080 Intel talked a lot about spirit and what's going to happen. 0:07:38.080 --> 0:07:40.960 There was save that conversation for later this morning. Intel. 0:07:41.240 --> 0:07:43.880 I don't want to downplay the real developments taking place 0:07:43.880 --> 0:07:45.680 of this company, but how many companies do you think 0:07:45.680 --> 0:07:48.640 of re engaging with Intel because of the government involvement 0:07:48.720 --> 0:07:51.040 and the halo that offers, and maybe they want to 0:07:51.040 --> 0:07:51.680 play some people. 0:07:51.960 --> 0:07:53.840 I think when that was part of why we had 0:07:53.840 --> 0:07:56.600 the prosac right and we concluded Intel because of the 0:07:56.600 --> 0:07:58.880 ten percent government stake. And part of my thesis had 0:07:58.880 --> 0:08:01.480 been Trump likes to win. Trump owns this on behalf 0:08:01.480 --> 0:08:03.560 of the American people, So the American people are winning, 0:08:03.880 --> 0:08:06.200 but people are going to do business with this company 0:08:06.440 --> 0:08:08.119 because you want to be on the right side of Trump. 0:08:08.200 --> 0:08:09.960 So I think that was part of my thesis. I 0:08:10.000 --> 0:08:12.440 think that's probably played out very well, for better or 0:08:12.440 --> 0:08:15.000 for worse. I do wish that when we're making these investments, 0:08:15.040 --> 0:08:17.480 whether it's in that there were some guidelines set up 0:08:17.640 --> 0:08:19.360 and that we had some group that actually does this 0:08:19.440 --> 0:08:22.280 and was well organized. That's not how this administration works, 0:08:22.360 --> 0:08:24.920 and fighting how this administration works isn't a good way 0:08:24.960 --> 0:08:27.480 to make money. Figuring out how the administration works and 0:08:27.960 --> 0:08:29.400 taking advantage or following it. 0:08:29.440 --> 0:08:30.960 I think is Ben's nice. 0:08:30.800 --> 0:08:33.080 Defense contract is Flying Spirit because that was going to 0:08:33.080 --> 0:08:34.120 happen next Now. 0:08:34.160 --> 0:08:36.560 I do think I'm looking for, you know, anything in 0:08:36.559 --> 0:08:38.280 the drone space. The drone space is just going to 0:08:38.280 --> 0:08:39.679 continue to take off. I think a lot of those 0:08:39.679 --> 0:08:41.760 companies are private, though I'd expect a lot of IPOs. 0:08:41.880 --> 0:08:43.559 As we were talking offline, you know, there's going to 0:08:43.600 --> 0:08:45.320 be IPOs and everything. I think you're going to see that. 0:08:45.440 --> 0:08:47.760 And I think surface drones have not get enough attention. 0:08:47.880 --> 0:08:50.160 That's you know, boats basically, So you can look at 0:08:50.200 --> 0:08:53.240 companies again, I think the shipbuilding industry, which is allegedly 0:08:53.280 --> 0:08:56.840 why the Secretary of the Navy was let go as 0:08:56.880 --> 0:08:59.079 he was not focusing enough on shipbuilding. That's an area 0:08:59.120 --> 0:09:00.680 I think is going to gain inten I look at 0:09:00.720 --> 0:09:03.160 Brunswick for example. They make small boats, you know, not 0:09:03.240 --> 0:09:05.160 military or anything like that, but why don't they get 0:09:05.160 --> 0:09:05.680 involved in this. 0:09:05.760 --> 0:09:07.640 I think you're going to see that this. 0:09:07.840 --> 0:09:10.760 Drone space explode, and I think shipbuilding really is a 0:09:10.800 --> 0:09:13.320 big focus that we need to do. So that's if 0:09:13.360 --> 0:09:15.679 I'm bathing right now, I'm shifting some money out of 0:09:15.720 --> 0:09:17.840 maybe the semis that have done so well, I'm looking 0:09:17.840 --> 0:09:18.480 for other things. 0:09:19.080 --> 0:09:31.920 Stay with US Mulblindberg surveillance coming up after this. So 0:09:31.960 --> 0:09:35.480 here's the latest this morning, a US soldier facing charges 0:09:35.520 --> 0:09:39.880 for allegedly using classified intel to rake in over four 0:09:39.960 --> 0:09:42.720 hundred thousand on polymarket betting on the timing of the 0:09:42.720 --> 0:09:45.880 capture of Venezuela's then president Nicholas Maduro. With the latest 0:09:45.920 --> 0:09:49.520 in Washington, Amory has more Montinggomery, Good. 0:09:49.280 --> 0:09:51.840 Morning, John, And it's not just what's happening in terms 0:09:51.920 --> 0:09:56.880 of this criminal investigation, but also the CFTC is lodging 0:09:56.920 --> 0:10:00.000 its very own in parallel civil investigation into this soul. 0:10:00.400 --> 0:10:02.640 And this marks the first time we see that regular 0:10:02.840 --> 0:10:05.960 take that step when it comes to prediction markets. It 0:10:06.040 --> 0:10:08.560 also comes to this own White House sent out a 0:10:08.600 --> 0:10:10.880 memo to staff a few weeks ago to make sure 0:10:10.920 --> 0:10:14.120 that they are not making these kinds of bets, especially 0:10:14.160 --> 0:10:17.599 given they have access to information. And we've seen a 0:10:17.679 --> 0:10:20.320 number of sizable trades, not just when it comes to 0:10:20.640 --> 0:10:24.360 trading platforms online like Caushee and Polymarket, but also in 0:10:24.400 --> 0:10:27.560 our own financial markets, especially when it comes to massive 0:10:27.720 --> 0:10:30.960 oil positions put on in a timely fashion before the 0:10:31.000 --> 0:10:33.760 President comes out with a truth social post and for 0:10:33.840 --> 0:10:35.640 more of this. I'm very glad to be joined by 0:10:35.679 --> 0:10:38.280 John Lieber of your Asia group or friend of the show. John, 0:10:38.280 --> 0:10:40.520 thank you so much for joining joining me. So the 0:10:40.559 --> 0:10:43.480 CFTC is also joining in on this in a parallel suit. 0:10:43.920 --> 0:10:46.440 Are we going to see more of these kinds of lawsuits? 0:10:46.640 --> 0:10:47.440 I hope so. 0:10:47.600 --> 0:10:49.280 I mean, I think this is actually a pretty major 0:10:49.320 --> 0:10:51.880 issue where you've got government officials who are using their 0:10:51.880 --> 0:10:55.520 position to profit and the proliferation of new markets that 0:10:55.600 --> 0:10:58.240 allow that to happen with very little oversight and very 0:10:58.240 --> 0:11:00.440 little regulation means we're going to see more of it. 0:11:00.480 --> 0:11:03.040 So I'm actually surprised the CFTC has gotten in on this. 0:11:03.440 --> 0:11:07.480 The oil investigation that they're launching about Trump's Aron attacks, 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:09.760 who knows where that thing leads. I mean, these could 0:11:09.800 --> 0:11:14.560 be some very politically sensitive investigations, and I think that 0:11:14.640 --> 0:11:16.920 as these things proliferate, you're going to see more of this. 0:11:17.240 --> 0:11:17.400 Rep. 0:11:17.520 --> 0:11:20.400 Luna yesterday took to Twitter and said, less the DOJ 0:11:20.600 --> 0:11:23.040 plans on going after all the crooks in Congress currently 0:11:23.120 --> 0:11:23.839 insider trading. 0:11:23.880 --> 0:11:26.160 This is simply skewed justice. Will there be. 0:11:26.120 --> 0:11:31.040 More pressure on Congress to also make sure that Congressional lawmakers, senators, 0:11:31.120 --> 0:11:32.320 staffers cannot trade. 0:11:32.400 --> 0:11:35.240 Yeah, there's been pressure on Congress to stop getting rich 0:11:35.280 --> 0:11:37.960 off of inside information for decades now, and it seems 0:11:37.960 --> 0:11:39.960 like members of Congress somehow find a way to keep 0:11:40.080 --> 0:11:43.520 getting wealthier. So I doubt there will be any serious enforcement. 0:11:43.559 --> 0:11:46.360 The Stock Act was passed over a decade ago, and 0:11:46.480 --> 0:11:50.400 there haven't been that many prosecutions, meaningful prosecutions brought under it. 0:11:51.040 --> 0:11:53.839 I think that probably Congressional staff are certainly scared about this. 0:11:54.160 --> 0:11:57.160 Members of Congress are right now more or less above 0:11:57.160 --> 0:11:57.600 the law. 0:11:57.480 --> 0:11:58.920 Here when it comes to Congress and the War and 0:11:58.960 --> 0:12:00.760 Iron there's an important deay line coming up when it 0:12:00.800 --> 0:12:01.920 comes to the War Powers Act. 0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:03.240 Does it matter to this White House? 0:12:03.480 --> 0:12:04.280 No, I don't think so. 0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:06.800 I think the War Powers Act, which was passed decades 0:12:06.840 --> 0:12:08.800 ago in order to be a check on the president's 0:12:08.840 --> 0:12:11.040 power to do exactly what Trump is doing in Irun 0:12:11.160 --> 0:12:13.600 right now, is more or less defunct as long as 0:12:13.600 --> 0:12:16.840 Congress is not willing to enforce it. And unfortunately, the 0:12:16.840 --> 0:12:19.320 only enforcement mechanism they have is impeachment, and we know 0:12:19.360 --> 0:12:21.240 they're not going to impeach Trump, So what are they 0:12:21.240 --> 0:12:21.880 going to do here? 0:12:21.960 --> 0:12:24.800 Does this change though potentially after the Metrum elections, if 0:12:24.840 --> 0:12:27.520 we do see a changing of power, whether that's in 0:12:27.520 --> 0:12:28.600 the House or the Senate, it. 0:12:28.559 --> 0:12:30.880 Could I mean, the Democrats would certainly control the House 0:12:30.920 --> 0:12:34.600 and maybe the Senate. But you still have the enforcement here, 0:12:34.640 --> 0:12:37.000 which is you know, it doesn't it isn't really there's 0:12:37.000 --> 0:12:39.800 no real enforcement channel. And I think President Trump, who 0:12:39.800 --> 0:12:42.720 in his first term disputed the legality of the War 0:12:42.760 --> 0:12:46.559 Powers Act as an unconstitutional check on his ability to 0:12:46.800 --> 0:12:50.640 conduct foreign affairs, I think probably continues to just ignore this. 0:12:50.800 --> 0:12:51.000 Well. 0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:52.960 Obama sort of ignored it as well when it comes 0:12:53.000 --> 0:12:54.040 to Libby's So we've seen. 0:12:53.920 --> 0:12:58.200 This simple circumstantial legality, right, circumstantial rule of law, where 0:12:58.240 --> 0:12:59.760 you care about it when it's your side, and you 0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:01.760 don't care about it when it's preventing you from doing 0:13:01.760 --> 0:13:02.280 what you want. 0:13:02.480 --> 0:13:04.400 When it comes to the war in Iran, where's your 0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:07.160 rasure right now? In terms of this potential off ramp 0:13:07.320 --> 0:13:09.840 talks that are happening. There was a cease fire announced 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:12.360 yesterday by the President. When it comes to Israel Lebanon, 0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:14.400 does that help the United States when it comes to 0:13:14.400 --> 0:13:16.240 trying to get the Iranians back at the table. 0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:18.120 So if you look at where the two sides are 0:13:18.200 --> 0:13:21.520 right now. The Iranians look pretty dug in. They've got 0:13:21.559 --> 0:13:24.040 a flow of oil moving out. They've got oil revenues 0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:26.480 that are much higher than what they originally budgeted for 0:13:26.800 --> 0:13:29.720 this year, with two million barrels a day on average 0:13:29.720 --> 0:13:32.400 going out over the last month or so. That probably 0:13:32.480 --> 0:13:37.800 drops significantly under the US barricade that's happening, but the 0:13:37.920 --> 0:13:41.200 US is quickly backpedaling off of its position. We don't 0:13:41.200 --> 0:13:43.720 think Trump is able to go back in in any 0:13:43.760 --> 0:13:46.520 meaningful way because of the political constraints that are on 0:13:46.600 --> 0:13:48.880 him in the United States, and the Iranians know this. 0:13:49.040 --> 0:13:51.679 So I think the negotiations that are happening right now 0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:54.360 eventually do lead to some kind of a deal that 0:13:54.400 --> 0:13:56.880 reopens the strait, let's say, by the end of May, 0:13:57.520 --> 0:13:59.040 and I think this weekend is going to be a 0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:02.880 key times two sides are exchanging ideas about what exactly 0:14:02.920 --> 0:14:05.559 the Iranians are going to do. Probably they stop, are 0:14:05.559 --> 0:14:08.480 forced to stop enriching uranium. They probably get some pause 0:14:08.520 --> 0:14:11.640 over some period of time, and the US probably ends 0:14:11.720 --> 0:14:14.120 up lifting some of these sanctions, which looks a lot 0:14:14.200 --> 0:14:17.080 like the JCPOA that President Obama. 0:14:16.600 --> 0:14:18.760 As you're saying this, I'm like, Okay, I've seen this 0:14:18.840 --> 0:14:21.080 deal before that the President then ripped up and Trump 0:14:21.120 --> 0:14:24.360 want Is Trump willing to take a deal that he 0:14:24.880 --> 0:14:29.160 in his prior term would say that it is not efficient? 0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:31.520 So if o're betting on poly market, I would have 0:14:31.520 --> 0:14:33.280 lost a lot of money betting on Trump right now. 0:14:33.360 --> 0:14:35.360 So who knows what he's going to do. But right now, 0:14:35.480 --> 0:14:37.400 the signals that the White House are sending or that 0:14:37.440 --> 0:14:40.000 they are backing off of their heat demands and they 0:14:40.080 --> 0:14:42.280 want to get a deal to make this thing go away. 0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:45.120 And that's at least the direction of travel right now. 0:14:45.280 --> 0:14:47.360 Trump of course can change his mind at any time 0:14:47.440 --> 0:14:50.680 for any reason, but that's what it looks like right now. 0:14:50.840 --> 0:14:54.360 I spoke to the former Centcom commander Motel yesterday as 0:14:54.400 --> 0:14:57.840 well as a six time CIA station chief, and they 0:14:57.880 --> 0:14:59.160 said nine to twelve. 0:14:58.840 --> 0:15:01.560 Months straight is open again until things. 0:15:01.360 --> 0:15:01.920 Are back to normal. 0:15:02.000 --> 0:15:02.840 Potentially we have a deal. 0:15:03.000 --> 0:15:04.760 Yeah, I think, well, I mean I think there's going 0:15:04.840 --> 0:15:06.440 to be. There's kind of two levels of a deal. 0:15:06.480 --> 0:15:09.560 There's like the memorandum of understanding that allows the blockades 0:15:09.600 --> 0:15:11.800 to go away and the Iranians can open the strait 0:15:11.840 --> 0:15:14.400 once again. And then there's a deal, which is, you know, 0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:17.360 you move uranium out of the country, we get inspectors in. 0:15:17.480 --> 0:15:19.720 Here's some cash. So I think that the deal part 0:15:19.720 --> 0:15:21.960 of it might take a little longer. But right now 0:15:22.000 --> 0:15:24.280 we think they are headed towards some kind of memorandum 0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:26.920 of understanding that would sketch out the parameters of a 0:15:26.960 --> 0:15:29.200 deal without even if something's not written. But I do 0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:32.160 agree that the disruptions we're living with right now are 0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:33.840 going to be with us for a while, and the 0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:36.160 strait's not going to be fully open till at least 0:15:36.240 --> 0:15:37.760 the middle of the summer, if not beyond that. 0:15:37.880 --> 0:15:40.360 Right Actually, I said yesterday that they were laying more minds. 0:15:41.200 --> 0:15:43.720 Doesn't the Iranians want to make this as complicated for 0:15:43.760 --> 0:15:45.080 the president before the Metrum election? 0:15:45.320 --> 0:15:47.160 Certainly that's what it looks like right now. There's been 0:15:47.200 --> 0:15:51.160 a lot of reporting about how Trump's tweeting is disrupting 0:15:51.200 --> 0:15:55.440 the negotiations and the Iranians, I think, think they're playing 0:15:55.440 --> 0:15:57.600 a stronger hand, and I think they're playing a stronger 0:15:57.640 --> 0:16:00.120 hand too, So I think that puts the Americans at 0:16:00.160 --> 0:16:02.560 a very difficult position in the negotiation here. 0:16:02.600 --> 0:16:04.720 If we think they're winning, then why would they back off. 0:16:05.200 --> 0:16:06.440 They want it to be I mean, I think everyone 0:16:06.440 --> 0:16:08.760 wants us to be over, for LEFE to return to normal. 0:16:09.080 --> 0:16:12.600 Stay with us. More Blindberg surveillance coming up after this. 0:16:21.720 --> 0:16:25.000 If Veronica Klankov SETI writing this on the Fed's next move, 0:16:25.040 --> 0:16:27.920 we expect a combination of self decoor inflation and loosening 0:16:27.960 --> 0:16:30.320