WEBVTT - When Do Presidential Approval Ratings Really Matter?

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to brain Stuff from How Stuff Works, Hey, brain Stuff,

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<v Speaker 1>Lauren vogelbamb here. Voting is the ultimate popularity contest in

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<v Speaker 1>the United States. Voters have the opportunity at least every

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<v Speaker 1>two years to cast ballots in federal elections, either filling

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<v Speaker 1>seats in the U. S. House of Representatives, the U. S. Senate,

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<v Speaker 1>or the White House, but operating non stop between those

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<v Speaker 1>elections is a political prognostication machine designed to predict the

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<v Speaker 1>next batch of winners. There are at least a dozen

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<v Speaker 1>major polling organizations who quiz Americans on a daily basis

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<v Speaker 1>about their approval or disapproval of current officials, their opinion

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<v Speaker 1>on the latest hot button political issues, and whether or

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<v Speaker 1>not the nation is on track or off the rails.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a lot at stake in these polls. Political donors

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<v Speaker 1>use them to decide which candidates and political issues to bankroll,

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<v Speaker 1>and savvy congressional representatives consult them to calculate the political

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<v Speaker 1>risk of backing or splitting with the White House on

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<v Speaker 1>its legislative agenda. But the polling number that grabs the

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<v Speaker 1>most headlines is the president's job approval rating. For example,

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<v Speaker 1>back in March, President Donald Trump tweeted about being proud

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<v Speaker 1>of having, according to Rasmusen reports, a job approval rating

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<v Speaker 1>of around even though russ Musen's approval members on that

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<v Speaker 1>particular day were only for The reason the president was

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<v Speaker 1>tweeting in March about his rounded up approval ratings and

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<v Speaker 1>the reason that democratic political pundits rushed to correct him

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<v Speaker 1>is that job approval ratings are about more than just

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<v Speaker 1>stoking or bashing the president's ego. They are perhaps the

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<v Speaker 1>best single predictor of who will win the mid term

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<v Speaker 1>elections in November. Midterm elections happen exactly two years after

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<v Speaker 1>each presidential election and almost always pose a serious challenge

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<v Speaker 1>for the party in the White House. The president's political

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<v Speaker 1>party has lost seats in the House of Representatives and

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<v Speaker 1>all but two midterm elections since World War Two. The

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<v Speaker 1>exceptions were Bill Clinton and George W. Bush in two

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<v Speaker 1>thousand two. What's interesting is that the severity of the

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<v Speaker 1>mid term losses appears to be directly related to the

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<v Speaker 1>popularity of the president. Gallup reported in that when post

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<v Speaker 1>war presidents had approval ratings of fifty percent or above

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<v Speaker 1>at the time of a midterm election, their party only

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<v Speaker 1>lost an average of fourteen seats in the House, but

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<v Speaker 1>if they had an approval rating of forty nine percent

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<v Speaker 1>or lower, the average loss was thirty six seats. Using

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<v Speaker 1>more recent data from nineteen seventy fourteen, Bloomberg put the

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<v Speaker 1>average loss at just thirty three seats for presidents with

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<v Speaker 1>approval ratings under fifty percent. But either way you slice it,

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<v Speaker 1>that's significant. There have been some exceptions, however. Ronald Reagan

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<v Speaker 1>had an approval rating of sixty three percent in nineteen

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<v Speaker 1>eighty six and his party still lost five seats in

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<v Speaker 1>the mid terms. And on the other side of the aisle,

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<v Speaker 1>John F. Kennedy had a sixty one percent approval rating

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<v Speaker 1>in nineteen sixty two and still lost four seats. The

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<v Speaker 1>connection between presidential job approval and midterm elections is particularly

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<v Speaker 1>strong during the first midterm election after a new president

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<v Speaker 1>takes the White House. Punditcy those first mid terms largely

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<v Speaker 1>as a referendum on the president's job performance. That's why

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<v Speaker 1>Democrats made such a big deal about the March thirteenth

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<v Speaker 1>special election in Pennsylvania, where their candidate won by the

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<v Speaker 1>slimmest of margins in a region that went heavily Republican.

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<v Speaker 1>In twenty sixteen. They point to it as a sign

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<v Speaker 1>that Trump's poor job performance and low approval ratings will

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<v Speaker 1>lead to a blue wave of Democratic victories later in

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<v Speaker 1>twenty eighteen. But what about presidential elections. Does it incumbent's

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<v Speaker 1>job approval rating make or break his chances of winning

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<v Speaker 1>re election? The short answer yes. Since World War Two,

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<v Speaker 1>not a single incumbent presidential candidate has won re election

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<v Speaker 1>with a job approval rating below fift Barack Obama almost

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<v Speaker 1>became the exception in twenty twelve, with an approval rating

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<v Speaker 1>in the mid forties a few months before election day,

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<v Speaker 1>though by November it had cleared the hurdle at fifty

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<v Speaker 1>one percent. But does that mean that if Trump's approval

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<v Speaker 1>rating continues to languish below fifty over the next two

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<v Speaker 1>years that he will deafly lose the reelection? In absolutely

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<v Speaker 1>not Many things about the Trump presidency to phi president.

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<v Speaker 1>For example, Trump was elected in ten despite being the

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<v Speaker 1>least liked major party presidential candidate of all time. His

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<v Speaker 1>unfavorability rating on election day was a whopping However, his

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<v Speaker 1>primary opponent, Hillary Clinton, had the second highest unfavorability rating

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<v Speaker 1>in history. At further Complicating matters is that not every

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<v Speaker 1>job approval poll comes up with these same numbers. That's

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<v Speaker 1>because each polling organization uses a slightly different methodology. Some posters,

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<v Speaker 1>like Gallop call up a representative sample of Americans over

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<v Speaker 1>the age of eighteen and simply ask them if they

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<v Speaker 1>approve or disapprove of the president's job performance. In Trump's case,

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<v Speaker 1>those polls result in lower approval and higher disapproval numbers.

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<v Speaker 1>But rasp Musin reports only counts answers from likely voters,

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<v Speaker 1>or people who say that they're likely to vote in

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<v Speaker 1>the next election. Rest Music and is also the only

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<v Speaker 1>company pulling people on a daily basis, and they give

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<v Speaker 1>respondents for options strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, and

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<v Speaker 1>strongly disapprove. In Trump's case, the inclusion of somewhat approved

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<v Speaker 1>seems to be enough to lift his rasp Musin approval

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<v Speaker 1>numbers as many as ten points higher than other major

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<v Speaker 1>national pollsters. Today's episode was written by Dave Ruse and

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<v Speaker 1>produced by Tyler Clang. For more on this and lots

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<v Speaker 1>of other popular topics, visit our home planet, how Stuff

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<v Speaker 1>Works dot com.