1 00:00:02,040 --> 00:00:07,080 Speaker 1: Welcome to brain Stuff from How Stuff Works, Hey, brain Stuff, 2 00:00:07,120 --> 00:00:11,720 Speaker 1: Lauren vogelbamb here. Voting is the ultimate popularity contest in 3 00:00:11,760 --> 00:00:14,680 Speaker 1: the United States. Voters have the opportunity at least every 4 00:00:14,680 --> 00:00:18,200 Speaker 1: two years to cast ballots in federal elections, either filling 5 00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:21,000 Speaker 1: seats in the U. S. House of Representatives, the U. S. Senate, 6 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:24,680 Speaker 1: or the White House, but operating non stop between those 7 00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 1: elections is a political prognostication machine designed to predict the 8 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 1: next batch of winners. There are at least a dozen 9 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:34,680 Speaker 1: major polling organizations who quiz Americans on a daily basis 10 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:38,519 Speaker 1: about their approval or disapproval of current officials, their opinion 11 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 1: on the latest hot button political issues, and whether or 12 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:43,960 Speaker 1: not the nation is on track or off the rails. 13 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:47,479 Speaker 1: There's a lot at stake in these polls. Political donors 14 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 1: use them to decide which candidates and political issues to bankroll, 15 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:54,360 Speaker 1: and savvy congressional representatives consult them to calculate the political 16 00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:57,040 Speaker 1: risk of backing or splitting with the White House on 17 00:00:57,120 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 1: its legislative agenda. But the polling number that grabs the 18 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:04,480 Speaker 1: most headlines is the president's job approval rating. For example, 19 00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 1: back in March, President Donald Trump tweeted about being proud 20 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:10,640 Speaker 1: of having, according to Rasmusen reports, a job approval rating 21 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:14,480 Speaker 1: of around even though russ Musen's approval members on that 22 00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:18,480 Speaker 1: particular day were only for The reason the president was 23 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 1: tweeting in March about his rounded up approval ratings and 24 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:25,080 Speaker 1: the reason that democratic political pundits rushed to correct him 25 00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:27,280 Speaker 1: is that job approval ratings are about more than just 26 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:30,920 Speaker 1: stoking or bashing the president's ego. They are perhaps the 27 00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:34,360 Speaker 1: best single predictor of who will win the mid term 28 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 1: elections in November. Midterm elections happen exactly two years after 29 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:43,200 Speaker 1: each presidential election and almost always pose a serious challenge 30 00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:45,880 Speaker 1: for the party in the White House. The president's political 31 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 1: party has lost seats in the House of Representatives and 32 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 1: all but two midterm elections since World War Two. The 33 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:55,320 Speaker 1: exceptions were Bill Clinton and George W. Bush in two 34 00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:58,760 Speaker 1: thousand two. What's interesting is that the severity of the 35 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:01,760 Speaker 1: mid term losses appears to be directly related to the 36 00:02:01,800 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 1: popularity of the president. Gallup reported in that when post 37 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:09,640 Speaker 1: war presidents had approval ratings of fifty percent or above 38 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 1: at the time of a midterm election, their party only 39 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:15,520 Speaker 1: lost an average of fourteen seats in the House, but 40 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:17,919 Speaker 1: if they had an approval rating of forty nine percent 41 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:21,960 Speaker 1: or lower, the average loss was thirty six seats. Using 42 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 1: more recent data from nineteen seventy fourteen, Bloomberg put the 43 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:28,680 Speaker 1: average loss at just thirty three seats for presidents with 44 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 1: approval ratings under fifty percent. But either way you slice it, 45 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 1: that's significant. There have been some exceptions, however. Ronald Reagan 46 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:39,519 Speaker 1: had an approval rating of sixty three percent in nineteen 47 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 1: eighty six and his party still lost five seats in 48 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:44,919 Speaker 1: the mid terms. And on the other side of the aisle, 49 00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:47,799 Speaker 1: John F. Kennedy had a sixty one percent approval rating 50 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:51,920 Speaker 1: in nineteen sixty two and still lost four seats. The 51 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:55,680 Speaker 1: connection between presidential job approval and midterm elections is particularly 52 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 1: strong during the first midterm election after a new president 53 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 1: takes the White House. Punditcy those first mid terms largely 54 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 1: as a referendum on the president's job performance. That's why 55 00:03:06,080 --> 00:03:08,880 Speaker 1: Democrats made such a big deal about the March thirteenth 56 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:12,240 Speaker 1: special election in Pennsylvania, where their candidate won by the 57 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 1: slimmest of margins in a region that went heavily Republican. 58 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:18,000 Speaker 1: In twenty sixteen. They point to it as a sign 59 00:03:18,040 --> 00:03:21,200 Speaker 1: that Trump's poor job performance and low approval ratings will 60 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:24,120 Speaker 1: lead to a blue wave of Democratic victories later in 61 00:03:24,160 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 1: twenty eighteen. But what about presidential elections. Does it incumbent's 62 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:31,520 Speaker 1: job approval rating make or break his chances of winning 63 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:35,800 Speaker 1: re election? The short answer yes. Since World War Two, 64 00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:39,280 Speaker 1: not a single incumbent presidential candidate has won re election 65 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:43,320 Speaker 1: with a job approval rating below fift Barack Obama almost 66 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:46,280 Speaker 1: became the exception in twenty twelve, with an approval rating 67 00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 1: in the mid forties a few months before election day, 68 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 1: though by November it had cleared the hurdle at fifty 69 00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:55,560 Speaker 1: one percent. But does that mean that if Trump's approval 70 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 1: rating continues to languish below fifty over the next two 71 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 1: years that he will deafly lose the reelection? In absolutely 72 00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:07,200 Speaker 1: not Many things about the Trump presidency to phi president. 73 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 1: For example, Trump was elected in ten despite being the 74 00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 1: least liked major party presidential candidate of all time. His 75 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:21,039 Speaker 1: unfavorability rating on election day was a whopping However, his 76 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 1: primary opponent, Hillary Clinton, had the second highest unfavorability rating 77 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:30,480 Speaker 1: in history. At further Complicating matters is that not every 78 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 1: job approval poll comes up with these same numbers. That's 79 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:38,520 Speaker 1: because each polling organization uses a slightly different methodology. Some posters, 80 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:41,640 Speaker 1: like Gallop call up a representative sample of Americans over 81 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:44,000 Speaker 1: the age of eighteen and simply ask them if they 82 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:47,960 Speaker 1: approve or disapprove of the president's job performance. In Trump's case, 83 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:51,839 Speaker 1: those polls result in lower approval and higher disapproval numbers. 84 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:55,960 Speaker 1: But rasp Musin reports only counts answers from likely voters, 85 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:58,160 Speaker 1: or people who say that they're likely to vote in 86 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:01,160 Speaker 1: the next election. Rest Music and is also the only 87 00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:04,520 Speaker 1: company pulling people on a daily basis, and they give 88 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 1: respondents for options strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, and 89 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:13,839 Speaker 1: strongly disapprove. In Trump's case, the inclusion of somewhat approved 90 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:16,719 Speaker 1: seems to be enough to lift his rasp Musin approval 91 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:19,800 Speaker 1: numbers as many as ten points higher than other major 92 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:28,159 Speaker 1: national pollsters. Today's episode was written by Dave Ruse and 93 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 1: produced by Tyler Clang. For more on this and lots 94 00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:33,719 Speaker 1: of other popular topics, visit our home planet, how Stuff 95 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:46,039 Speaker 1: Works dot com.