WEBVTT - Are We Doomed? with Ben Bradford 0:00:03.040 --> 0:00:06.800 Welcome to Stuff to Blow Your Mind, production of iHeartRadio. 0:00:13.039 --> 0:00:15.160 Hey, welcome to Stuff to Blow Your Mind. My name 0:00:15.200 --> 0:00:18.279 is Robert Lamb. Today's episode is an interview with podcaster 0:00:18.400 --> 0:00:22.360 Ben Bradford about his new NPR Network show Are We Doomed. 0:00:23.079 --> 0:00:25.840 When this interview opportunity came up, I have to admit 0:00:25.880 --> 0:00:28.840 that my initial response was I don't know if I 0:00:28.840 --> 0:00:31.120 really want to do that right now. I wasn't sure 0:00:31.160 --> 0:00:32.560 if it was going to be good for my state 0:00:32.600 --> 0:00:35.159 of mind, because, you know, listeners, you know me to 0:00:35.159 --> 0:00:38.120 some extent, I've always been drawn to topics that circle 0:00:38.200 --> 0:00:41.240 around the doomy. I love apocalyptic media of all sorts. 0:00:41.280 --> 0:00:44.440 I listened to doomy music. But I also, especially over 0:00:44.440 --> 0:00:47.320 the past decade or so, have certainly found myself prone 0:00:47.479 --> 0:00:51.120 to spiral over some of the more pressing existential threats 0:00:51.120 --> 0:00:54.200 facing humanity today. And I just wasn't sure I wanted 0:00:54.200 --> 0:00:56.560 to lean in to cover it all right now on 0:00:56.600 --> 0:01:00.080 the podcast. However, I want to stress the listeners that 0:01:00.240 --> 0:01:03.400 Are We Doomed is not merely a teeth gnashing self 0:01:03.400 --> 0:01:06.960 injection of darkness and anxiety, and that's why I'm excited 0:01:06.959 --> 0:01:10.040 to chat with Ben Bradford here today about it is. 0:01:10.400 --> 0:01:14.880 It is a podcast that takes a very even keel 0:01:15.160 --> 0:01:19.360 journalistic approach to these topics, and I found myself at 0:01:19.400 --> 0:01:23.920 the end of the episodes feeling in ways more hopeful, 0:01:23.959 --> 0:01:27.399 but certainly more grounded. So let's go ahead and jump 0:01:27.480 --> 0:01:29.640 right into it. This was a really fun chat and 0:01:29.800 --> 0:01:35.080 I'm excited to share it with you. Hi, Ben, thanks 0:01:35.080 --> 0:01:35.839 for coming on the show. 0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:37.160 Great to be here. 0:01:38.160 --> 0:01:41.840 As you mentioned on Are We Doomed, many, if not 0:01:41.920 --> 0:01:44.959 most of us have grown up in the shadows of 0:01:45.280 --> 0:01:49.840 certain looming apocalyptic possibilities, certainly the specter of nuclear war 0:01:50.240 --> 0:01:54.640 for many listeners, climate change, and these fears just permeate 0:01:54.720 --> 0:01:57.840 our media, our novels, our music, our video games, our 0:01:57.840 --> 0:02:01.960 TV shows. What have been some touchedone examples of apocalyptic 0:02:02.040 --> 0:02:03.440 media in your own life? 0:02:03.800 --> 0:02:07.000 You know, when you say it, I immediately think Mad Max. 0:02:07.360 --> 0:02:12.520 I think Sandy Wasteland. I think about the disastrous attempt 0:02:12.520 --> 0:02:17.720 to do that on Water Water World. I think about 0:02:18.480 --> 0:02:22.080 you know that the show Fallout the Road. I think 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:27.600 as a more grounded, gritty version of that in a 0:02:27.680 --> 0:02:30.119 lot of ways, right, but those are our tropes. Is 0:02:30.200 --> 0:02:34.839 the the sand, the desert, the people, are out there 0:02:34.840 --> 0:02:40.000 for out there to get you, and so yeah, like 0:02:40.040 --> 0:02:41.919 they all kind of bleed from that Mad Max thing. 0:02:41.919 --> 0:02:44.840 I feel like, what do you think it says about 0:02:44.919 --> 0:02:48.160 some of our worst fears about reality and some of 0:02:48.200 --> 0:02:52.520 our favorite distractions, that they're both sort of couched in 0:02:52.560 --> 0:02:54.880 apocalyptic vision. You know, that we might flee from a 0:02:54.919 --> 0:02:58.680 news report about nuclear proliferation into the arms of say 0:02:59.080 --> 0:03:02.080 a Fallout video game or the latest Hunger game series. 0:03:02.520 --> 0:03:06.560 Yeah, it's interesting, isn't it? Because on one hand, I 0:03:06.560 --> 0:03:09.760 think we do spend all this time not thinking about 0:03:10.560 --> 0:03:13.799 in particular nuclear war, and some of these other ones 0:03:13.800 --> 0:03:16.400 I think are are maybe lesser known, lesser reflected on 0:03:16.720 --> 0:03:23.440 as well. And then it's like we love post apocalypse 0:03:23.520 --> 0:03:25.920 and apocalyptic media. I just saw The Odyssey and you 0:03:25.919 --> 0:03:28.400 know there's trailers. Two of the trailers are like post 0:03:28.400 --> 0:03:32.280 apocalypse movies and those same tropes. You know, really, Scott's 0:03:32.280 --> 0:03:36.360 got a new one coming out and it's so amazing. 0:03:36.560 --> 0:03:40.160 But I think that part of it is that, like 0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:45.440 the post apocalypse movie, post apocalypse media is a power fantasy, 0:03:46.120 --> 0:03:49.000 and it is like fantasy is the key word, right, 0:03:49.040 --> 0:03:52.800 because you also are creating this world that it has 0:03:52.920 --> 0:03:55.800 recognizable touchstones to us. You know, it's the plan of 0:03:55.800 --> 0:03:58.000 the Apes thing where at the very end you see 0:03:58.040 --> 0:04:00.400 the statue of Liberty buried in sand. There's an emotional 0:04:00.440 --> 0:04:04.160 resonance to that. And I think that when you create 0:04:04.200 --> 0:04:07.560 a post apocalypse, you get to wipe the slate clean, 0:04:08.160 --> 0:04:13.480 imagine society doing whatever, terrible but exciting things. You know, 0:04:13.560 --> 0:04:16.760 the rules are off, but it's still us. You know, 0:04:16.839 --> 0:04:23.200 it's not Game of Thrones, where it's an interesting, political, 0:04:23.480 --> 0:04:28.479 complicated world, but we don't have dragons, we don't have 0:04:30.000 --> 0:04:32.800 those those medieval things. And so there's a way in 0:04:32.839 --> 0:04:36.479 that post apocalypse film of connecting us to where we 0:04:36.480 --> 0:04:39.279 can really kind of envision ourselves in those shoes, or 0:04:39.279 --> 0:04:42.400 we think about who would we be in it? I 0:04:42.400 --> 0:04:44.280 think that might be why, but I don't know. 0:04:45.080 --> 0:04:47.040 Yeah, it's I mean clearly it's it's one of those 0:04:47.120 --> 0:04:49.640 questions we can really go down the rabbit hole thinking about. 0:04:51.360 --> 0:04:53.719 Sometimes when down the rabbit hole, what do you think? 0:04:53.760 --> 0:04:57.320 Oh yeah, yeah, sure. I mean one one thing that 0:04:57.360 --> 0:04:59.400 I keep thinking about in all of this because I 0:04:59.720 --> 0:05:04.719 reckon iognize. So on one hand, I absolutely have this feeling, 0:05:04.720 --> 0:05:07.719 you know where it's like I'll be reading Reuters or something. 0:05:07.760 --> 0:05:10.279 I'll be kind of like scrolling and doom scrolling on routers, 0:05:10.480 --> 0:05:12.159 and then I'll need an escape from that, and whatever 0:05:12.200 --> 0:05:15.039 I end up running into also has these touches of 0:05:15.040 --> 0:05:18.280 apocalypse to it, you know, and I'll maybe reflect on that. 0:05:20.000 --> 0:05:23.920 I've sometimes come back to this particular line from jam 0:05:24.000 --> 0:05:29.120 Cootsies Waiting for the Barbarians about the mind of empire. 0:05:29.560 --> 0:05:31.599 And on one hand, like, you know, empire is just 0:05:31.640 --> 0:05:35.640 always doing everything it cannot to die and pursuing its enemies, 0:05:35.920 --> 0:05:39.320 and then quote by night, it feeds on images of disaster, 0:05:39.520 --> 0:05:43.320 the sack of cities, the rape of populations, pyramids of bones, 0:05:43.800 --> 0:05:46.520 acres of desolation. And when I think about that, it 0:05:46.640 --> 0:05:48.719 makes me wonder, like, Okay, are we the night in 0:05:48.760 --> 0:05:51.960 that scenario? You know, each of us, as we engage 0:05:52.080 --> 0:05:55.440 in this type of media, is our media obsession with 0:05:55.520 --> 0:05:58.240 apocalypse kind of a symptom of our role in empire. 0:05:59.040 --> 0:06:03.599 That's interesting. I've never heard that before. Maybe overthinking a bit, No, 0:06:03.720 --> 0:06:06.520 I think that's that's fascinating, And so that carries back too. 0:06:06.560 --> 0:06:10.600 Then you one would think to other other ages and 0:06:11.600 --> 0:06:14.680 other empires. And you know, a thing that's interesting is 0:06:15.080 --> 0:06:18.760 speaking of using the word empire is we have another 0:06:18.920 --> 0:06:20.760 episode that we look at, you know, what does it 0:06:20.839 --> 0:06:23.000 take for a civilization to collapse? Does it take for 0:06:23.000 --> 0:06:25.960 a society to collapse? And that episode is pisfly titled 0:06:26.000 --> 0:06:28.480 are we going the Way at the Roman Empire? Specifically 0:06:28.480 --> 0:06:31.040 because my father is always grumbling that. But one of 0:06:31.080 --> 0:06:34.120 the things that we heard from an expert who studies 0:06:34.760 --> 0:06:37.400 not just Rome but other civilizations that have collapsed, was that, 0:06:37.520 --> 0:06:40.600 you know that there was sort of this mixed thing 0:06:40.760 --> 0:06:44.440 happening right where Rome. They would say Roma eterna right, 0:06:44.560 --> 0:06:46.800 eternal Rome. They thought they'd done it, They thought they'd 0:06:46.800 --> 0:06:50.600 cracked society. They thought they were post history, and of 0:06:50.600 --> 0:06:52.719 course they're not. And that that quote reminds me of that. 0:06:52.760 --> 0:06:56.240 I guess, yeah, yeah, I think very much a meditation 0:06:56.480 --> 0:07:00.640 on that. We'll come back to I guess empire here 0:07:00.640 --> 0:07:03.400 in a minute, But I wanted to ask you specifically 0:07:03.480 --> 0:07:07.240 about the first episode in your show, How to Start 0:07:07.279 --> 0:07:12.240 a Nuclear War? And on one level, obviously that's a doozy. Yeah, 0:07:12.520 --> 0:07:15.440 it ties right into some of my own worst fears, 0:07:15.800 --> 0:07:19.120 and yet listening to the episode in full, I left 0:07:19.160 --> 0:07:22.280 it maybe more even tempered, you know, in a way 0:07:22.400 --> 0:07:25.280 it reminded me the experience of listening to the episode 0:07:25.520 --> 0:07:28.840 was kind of like a therapy exercise where we confront 0:07:29.040 --> 0:07:32.360 fearful thoughts or worst case expectations and kind of put 0:07:32.360 --> 0:07:34.960 them on trial. And in your case, you speak with 0:07:35.040 --> 0:07:38.160 experts who walk you through it. So tell me your 0:07:38.160 --> 0:07:42.000 thoughts going into that episode, like what that episode sets 0:07:42.000 --> 0:07:45.280 out to do and what you think it ultimately accomplishes. 0:07:46.440 --> 0:07:49.160 Yeah, so it's our first episode, and I think when 0:07:49.240 --> 0:07:53.240 there's sort of two tracks here. One is the journalism 0:07:53.320 --> 0:07:56.520 track of what are we going to cover in terms 0:07:56.560 --> 0:07:58.280 of this issue, what are we going to bring to 0:07:58.320 --> 0:08:01.880 people that's new, how do we make sure that it's 0:08:01.880 --> 0:08:05.560 a well rounded conversation that is enlightening. And then there's 0:08:05.600 --> 0:08:09.080 sort of the we're starting a new show, and what 0:08:09.120 --> 0:08:11.680 do we want in the broad spectrum of everything that 0:08:11.720 --> 0:08:13.720 we can talk about, what do we want to cover? 0:08:14.560 --> 0:08:16.920 And I decided that I wanted to cover, you know, 0:08:17.040 --> 0:08:20.120 a big one in if we're covering dooms, we're covering 0:08:20.840 --> 0:08:25.000 potential and the world scenarios and related things. Let's take 0:08:25.720 --> 0:08:29.680 the biggest and most well known and let's take a 0:08:29.680 --> 0:08:31.600 piece of that, and what piece we want to take 0:08:31.760 --> 0:08:33.560 and also how do we want to cover it? And 0:08:33.600 --> 0:08:35.000 one of the things that we want to make sure 0:08:35.000 --> 0:08:39.360 that we do is do the doom without the gloom? 0:08:39.960 --> 0:08:44.000 So how do we approach this with curiosity? How do 0:08:44.040 --> 0:08:47.360 we have fun? How do we marry the journalism with that? 0:08:47.920 --> 0:08:53.000 And so ultimately I think that I wanted to get 0:08:53.480 --> 0:08:59.720 expert views of one is what I know about nuclear 0:08:59.679 --> 0:09:02.360 war or and what I've kind of grown up with 0:09:02.640 --> 0:09:07.440 and the system of that is that right? What is 0:09:07.480 --> 0:09:11.600 the paradigm today, how has it changed over years? Is 0:09:11.640 --> 0:09:13.640 it really how likely? 0:09:13.760 --> 0:09:14.560 Is it right? 0:09:14.600 --> 0:09:15.640 I mean, one of the things that we want to 0:09:15.640 --> 0:09:17.679 do in the show is kind of gauge where our 0:09:17.720 --> 0:09:22.719 threats stand, but also what can we do? And there 0:09:22.760 --> 0:09:27.800 is something very fun and interesting about asking experts solve it? 0:09:28.640 --> 0:09:33.120 Just if you could solve nuclear war, this thorny, complicated, 0:09:33.280 --> 0:09:36.760 in some ways seemingly unsolvable thing, how would you do it? 0:09:37.160 --> 0:09:38.679 And the thing that I found you mentioned is sort 0:09:38.679 --> 0:09:42.360 of a therapy exercise. And it's funny because I didn't 0:09:42.400 --> 0:09:45.680 look at it that way, but I have very much 0:09:45.720 --> 0:09:50.319 had that experience working on this show, where it kind 0:09:50.320 --> 0:09:53.320 of feels like, you know, when you start writing a 0:09:53.400 --> 0:09:56.640 story for anyone who's had this experience in any medium. 0:09:56.679 --> 0:09:58.520 You start writing a story and the page is blank, 0:09:59.000 --> 0:10:01.920 and it is a full panic. When the page is blank, 0:10:02.440 --> 0:10:03.680 you don't know what's going to be on there, and 0:10:03.720 --> 0:10:06.200 it feels impossible. And then you start digging into it 0:10:06.240 --> 0:10:09.000 and you start typing in some sentences and it just 0:10:09.040 --> 0:10:12.520 sort of becomes less daunting. And I think that the 0:10:12.559 --> 0:10:15.920 same thing is true of almost any challenge. Right You're 0:10:16.760 --> 0:10:20.040 trying to fix your car and it's broken. You don't 0:10:20.040 --> 0:10:21.840 even know where to start, and then you kind of 0:10:21.880 --> 0:10:24.360 identify the area and you identify, Okay, what do I 0:10:24.400 --> 0:10:25.800 need to do, and one step at a time you 0:10:25.840 --> 0:10:28.959 can kind of see the pathway to fixing it. Nuclear 0:10:29.000 --> 0:10:32.320 war is not a broken car, but I think that 0:10:32.400 --> 0:10:35.760 there is something about that that is also true, where 0:10:35.880 --> 0:10:39.640 when you start asking people who do think about this deeply, well, 0:10:40.400 --> 0:10:43.480 what is a pathway by which we could not have 0:10:43.600 --> 0:10:45.920 all these weapons pointed at each other or we can 0:10:46.480 --> 0:10:49.280 ensure that we do not fire them, you start to 0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:52.160 hear solutions that maybe don't take it off the table. 0:10:52.200 --> 0:10:56.880 It is a big, crazy, scary thing, but that do 0:10:57.000 --> 0:10:59.400 make it feel like there are solutions that are more 0:10:59.400 --> 0:11:01.600 achievable that can make the fingers go away from the 0:11:01.600 --> 0:11:05.640 buttons and rob. The other part of this is that 0:11:06.120 --> 0:11:07.560 it's not so much in that episode, but we have 0:11:07.559 --> 0:11:09.360 an episode a couple down the line that are about 0:11:10.640 --> 0:11:14.360 past dooms that didn't come true. We look back at 0:11:14.360 --> 0:11:16.280 the times people thought they were doomed in the past, 0:11:16.920 --> 0:11:22.160 and what you see when you do that is basically 0:11:22.200 --> 0:11:25.600 that this feeling that we have, I think is really omnipresent, 0:11:26.040 --> 0:11:28.760 not just in our current era, but also for nuclear 0:11:28.800 --> 0:11:31.280 war in particular. There have been predictions of a nuclear 0:11:31.320 --> 0:11:38.240 war since two nations first got the bombs, and the 0:11:38.559 --> 0:11:40.480 fact that it hasn't happened. I don't think should make 0:11:40.559 --> 0:11:43.079 us say, oh, well it can't happen, or oh well 0:11:43.120 --> 0:11:45.760 they were wrong. But what it does is it does 0:11:45.840 --> 0:11:48.840 show that with work and you can look at why 0:11:48.880 --> 0:11:51.320 they were wrong, why these predictions didn't come true. And 0:11:51.360 --> 0:11:54.800 it's actually a very optimistic story of work and diplomacy 0:11:54.960 --> 0:12:00.160 and thoughtful effort that I find really inspiring. So I 0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:02.760 think that, like both in that first episode and kind 0:12:02.760 --> 0:12:04.640 of throughout the series, I try to hold on to 0:12:04.760 --> 0:12:09.480 that because otherwise I will need therapy for the show. 0:12:12.160 --> 0:12:14.079 Yeah. Yeah, that like again this is this is something 0:12:14.240 --> 0:12:16.319 I love about what you've put together here, is that 0:12:16.679 --> 0:12:20.480 you mentioned like the the terror of the white page, 0:12:20.960 --> 0:12:22.760 and I think that does line up with the way 0:12:22.800 --> 0:12:26.560 we sort of abstractly think about some of these threats, 0:12:26.800 --> 0:12:30.199 because we'll, you know, we'll think about nuclear war, for example, 0:12:30.480 --> 0:12:35.600 in its worst possible, most cinematic scenarios, and and then 0:12:35.760 --> 0:12:37.679 you know, we don't want to then do homework on that, 0:12:37.760 --> 0:12:39.920 and we don't want to necessarily even seek out any 0:12:40.640 --> 0:12:42.680 any journalism on that. You know, we just want to 0:12:42.679 --> 0:12:45.280 get away from it and run into a distraction. And 0:12:45.440 --> 0:12:46.600 you know, what you do in the show is like 0:12:46.640 --> 0:12:48.480 we'll break it down, like, well, okay, what are the ways, 0:12:49.280 --> 0:12:52.720 you know, how how can a nuclear war happen? What 0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:54.520 are the ways that that it could occur? And some 0:12:54.559 --> 0:12:57.439 of those are still really terrifying. Again, just the idea 0:12:57.480 --> 0:12:59.760 that you get into that, you know, one person can 0:12:59.800 --> 0:13:02.600 just side that it's it's nuclear wartime, and then it 0:13:02.679 --> 0:13:08.760 is that is that is terrifying and it feels entirely broken. Yeah, 0:13:08.800 --> 0:13:11.120 but then yeah, you touch on all these efforts that 0:13:11.160 --> 0:13:13.080 have taken place and are continuing to take place to 0:13:13.120 --> 0:13:15.880 also reduce that risk and prevent it from happening. Yeah, 0:13:15.960 --> 0:13:20.080 I mean I think that pretty early on my take, 0:13:20.200 --> 0:13:23.840 and I is, the nuclear war is pretty embarrassing. You know, 0:13:23.880 --> 0:13:26.319 we're going to be looking throughout this series all these 0:13:26.320 --> 0:13:30.280 different ways that all these different threats. Some of them 0:13:30.280 --> 0:13:33.160 are real, some of them are hype. Some of them 0:13:33.200 --> 0:13:35.160 there are a couple that I had not heard of before, 0:13:35.200 --> 0:13:35.560 and now. 0:13:35.480 --> 0:13:40.360 I'm like, oh, I do love that. But for nuclear war, 0:13:40.840 --> 0:13:45.400 it really is one that we built, and we have 0:13:45.480 --> 0:13:48.280 created this system. It is a system for your own protection, 0:13:48.760 --> 0:13:51.640 and that system is worldwide destruction. And you got to 0:13:51.640 --> 0:13:53.560 be like, really, good job, humanity. I mean, there's something 0:13:53.640 --> 0:13:57.640 very human about creating that system, and I think through 0:13:57.679 --> 0:14:00.240 that lens it also takes some of the majesty away 0:14:00.280 --> 0:14:03.439 from it, and it also allows you to hear some 0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:05.720 kind of fun I find in a lot of this stuff. 0:14:05.800 --> 0:14:10.600 There is there are fun and ridiculous stories. 0:14:12.960 --> 0:14:13.200 You know. 0:14:13.280 --> 0:14:18.080 We're doing one about food and the food supply, and 0:14:18.840 --> 0:14:21.640 which is I think you know both it's both fragile 0:14:21.640 --> 0:14:22.360 and resilient. 0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:22.760 Right. 0:14:22.880 --> 0:14:25.200 The slightest thing that you might not think of can 0:14:25.320 --> 0:14:28.640 can spike food prices and can cause problems in various 0:14:28.640 --> 0:14:30.880 parts of the world. On the other hand, we're feeding 0:14:31.520 --> 0:14:34.440 far more people than the world has ever fed before 0:14:34.520 --> 0:14:39.800 and and and generally doing that quite successfully with some caveats. 0:14:40.920 --> 0:14:43.200 I was talking to an expert about this and he's like, 0:14:43.240 --> 0:14:46.160 you know, the thing that I find ridiculous is that 0:14:47.160 --> 0:14:49.160 we grow all of this corn, and most of it 0:14:49.200 --> 0:14:51.240 we just grow it and then we burn it. Like 0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:53.480 we grow the corn and then we turn into ethanol, 0:14:53.520 --> 0:14:55.640 and then we burn the ethanol. And that's what we're 0:14:55.680 --> 0:14:58.200 doing with this corn. And it's like, oh yeah, And 0:14:58.240 --> 0:15:00.520 when you think about it that way, it's not to 0:15:00.520 --> 0:15:02.160 say there aren't reasons for doing that, not to say 0:15:02.160 --> 0:15:05.440 that that's not you know, we'll investigate that and explore it. 0:15:05.840 --> 0:15:08.200 But you're like, yeah, it's a it's a weird thing. 0:15:08.320 --> 0:15:10.760 Humanity is weird. We do weird stuff, and when you're 0:15:10.800 --> 0:15:14.440 looking at these kind of global scales, it gets pretty weird. 0:15:14.440 --> 0:15:19.760 A nuclear war is on there where nobody has an 0:15:19.760 --> 0:15:23.920 incentive to start a nuclear war with a couple of 0:15:23.920 --> 0:15:28.160 caveats that we get into, and yet it seems like 0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:32.120 or you know, there's a reason that it's on the list. 0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:34.880 I love one example of that, you that you're a 0:15:34.880 --> 0:15:37.480 guest in that episode brought up, and not just because 0:15:37.520 --> 0:15:39.800 it would be a great gimmick for a John Carpenter movie, 0:15:40.120 --> 0:15:42.720 but the idea that the nuclear football that a US 0:15:42.840 --> 0:15:45.560 president turns to in the event of a possible nuclear 0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:49.480 exchange should be surgically implanted in a person's chest, so 0:15:49.480 --> 0:15:51.560 you'd have to kill somebody to get it out of it, 0:15:51.600 --> 0:15:54.560 you know, to really drive home the stakes of the decision. 0:15:56.240 --> 0:15:58.120 I don't even have a question about that, but I 0:15:58.160 --> 0:15:59.160 just wanted to bring that up. 0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:02.760 No, I appreciate you mentioning it to me. That was 0:16:02.800 --> 0:16:06.440 actually a real moment. So we have this expert, Sharon Winer, 0:16:06.600 --> 0:16:09.920 who is at American University. But the reason I sought 0:16:09.920 --> 0:16:12.040 her out was because she's also done work for the Pentagon, 0:16:12.120 --> 0:16:16.640 She's done work for the Armed Services Committee in Congress, 0:16:16.680 --> 0:16:21.120 and you know, really has an almost encyclopedic knowledge of 0:16:21.560 --> 0:16:24.720 the issue. And so I was like, Okay, I want 0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:26.280 somebody who's well rounded. I mean, again, when we talk 0:16:26.280 --> 0:16:28.400 about how are we going to approach this thing? And 0:16:28.440 --> 0:16:33.800 then I didn't know her particular take on what we 0:16:33.840 --> 0:16:36.240 should do, and you can hear in the episode me 0:16:36.360 --> 0:16:41.360 being kind of surprised where she lands on what she 0:16:41.360 --> 0:16:44.080 would like to see happen. But one of the things 0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:47.880 that she studies that is really interesting is decision making 0:16:48.040 --> 0:16:52.000 and the decision making process that could put us more 0:16:52.040 --> 0:16:54.800 at risk. And I thought this was really interesting because 0:16:54.800 --> 0:16:57.160 again we talked about the things that you know, could 0:16:57.160 --> 0:17:00.080 make nuclear war less likely and also the things that 0:17:00.120 --> 0:17:04.480 are ridiculous. It's like, her contention is that we have 0:17:04.600 --> 0:17:08.240 built this very very short window a huge amount of pressure, 0:17:08.359 --> 0:17:10.760 put it all on one person in the United States 0:17:10.760 --> 0:17:14.360 in this case, the president, to decide whether to launch 0:17:14.680 --> 0:17:17.200 these weapons, whether to start a war, and that everything 0:17:17.240 --> 0:17:19.560 that we know about the way we've created this is 0:17:19.600 --> 0:17:21.840 like this is a bad meeting. Like you have created 0:17:21.880 --> 0:17:24.680 a bad meeting that leads to bad decision making because 0:17:24.680 --> 0:17:27.920 people don't react well under pressure. And so a lot 0:17:27.920 --> 0:17:31.200 of what we're talking about in that moment is sort 0:17:31.200 --> 0:17:33.680 of the decision making process and how do you make 0:17:33.720 --> 0:17:41.280 sure that if somebody is deciding whether or not to launch, 0:17:42.600 --> 0:17:46.119 that they're doing it as informed as possible, with the 0:17:46.200 --> 0:17:48.840 understanding of the consequences as possible. And one of the 0:17:48.920 --> 0:17:51.040 things that she said, and I was like, wait, I'm sorry, 0:17:51.080 --> 0:17:53.680 what is She's like, you know, you just put the 0:17:53.760 --> 0:17:55.840 launch codes in someone's chest cavity, and they've got to 0:17:55.920 --> 0:17:58.800 kill that person to get them out. And yeah, and 0:17:58.880 --> 0:18:01.760 for her, her point was that if you're going to 0:18:01.840 --> 0:18:04.320 fire those nuclear weapons, you're gonna kill a whole lot 0:18:04.320 --> 0:18:09.440 of people. And it's the you know, it's the statistics phrase, right, 0:18:09.480 --> 0:18:12.040 that one person's death is a tragedy, a million deaths 0:18:12.160 --> 0:18:14.800 is a statistic, And that's absolutely right. You know, these 0:18:14.800 --> 0:18:16.440 are gonna be faceless people. These are people that you're 0:18:16.440 --> 0:18:18.560 not seeing, You're not going to see the direct consequences. 0:18:18.680 --> 0:18:21.359 But how many people would actually pull that knife on 0:18:21.400 --> 0:18:23.800 that one person to you know, do the bloody work 0:18:23.840 --> 0:18:26.080 of getting that launch code, getting those launch codes out? 0:18:26.800 --> 0:18:29.000 So it's not a real proposal. I don't think she's 0:18:29.080 --> 0:18:32.960 like thinking that someone has to undergo the surgery, but 0:18:33.640 --> 0:18:36.920 I do think it drives home what we're talking about here, 0:18:36.960 --> 0:18:39.360 and I thought it was a fascinating example. 0:18:40.640 --> 0:18:45.280 Yeah, absolutely so Yeah, again, I highly recommend, yeah, starting 0:18:45.280 --> 0:18:47.880 with that first episode for anyone out there who wants 0:18:47.920 --> 0:19:01.120 to give the show a go. Now, you know earlier 0:19:01.119 --> 0:19:03.919 that they're there are these threats that we've grown up 0:19:03.960 --> 0:19:06.480 with our entire lives. You know, for many of us 0:19:06.520 --> 0:19:08.560 we've grown up in the in the shadow of the 0:19:08.600 --> 0:19:11.320 mushroom mushroom clouds, as Queen put it, or you know, 0:19:11.359 --> 0:19:14.720 we've we've grown up knowing about the dangers of global 0:19:15.080 --> 0:19:20.200 warming and climate change, uh others. You know, on one level, AI, 0:19:20.800 --> 0:19:24.080 you know, certainly we've grown up watching Terminator, we've grown 0:19:24.160 --> 0:19:27.800 up engaged in with sci fi. But this is also 0:19:27.880 --> 0:19:31.640 one that certainly we've seen the changes happen so rapidly, 0:19:31.720 --> 0:19:34.760 and they're still happening so rapidly. Was this was this 0:19:34.800 --> 0:19:37.439 a tougher one to navigate? What was your approach to 0:19:37.480 --> 0:19:40.439 handling AI on the show? So here's what I thought. 0:19:40.840 --> 0:19:44.320 I thought, Okay, the first episode is about nuclear war 0:19:44.960 --> 0:19:48.879 grounded practical, you know, this is this is one we 0:19:48.920 --> 0:19:50.800 got to worry about. And now this show it's like 0:19:50.840 --> 0:19:54.040 a mixtape, you know. So we have episodes that are 0:19:54.400 --> 0:19:56.920 about the big stuff, and we have episode about stuff 0:19:56.920 --> 0:20:00.119 that's hype, and we have you know, our recent We 0:20:00.119 --> 0:20:02.240 have an episode that's about how we are losing the 0:20:02.280 --> 0:20:04.600 moon because the moon is drifting away, which is true 0:20:04.960 --> 0:20:07.840 but not really a big deal for any of us 0:20:07.920 --> 0:20:10.119 unless you're plan to live for about five hundred million years. 0:20:11.480 --> 0:20:16.560 And so I wanted to be a mixtape, and I thought, well, 0:20:16.560 --> 0:20:20.360 the second episode, let's look at AI. AI is now 0:20:20.480 --> 0:20:23.280 on the list at a lot of very credible places 0:20:23.320 --> 0:20:27.080 that track what's called existential risk or global catastrophic risk. 0:20:27.160 --> 0:20:32.160 These are the academic terms for doom stuff. And so 0:20:32.200 --> 0:20:35.119 you want to ask why. And so I was like, well, 0:20:35.200 --> 0:20:39.040 let's design the AI that goes rogue and kills us 0:20:39.040 --> 0:20:43.920 all this big galaxy brained thing. What would that take? 0:20:45.000 --> 0:20:47.879 And the problem is that when I did that episode, 0:20:48.840 --> 0:20:52.200 it's like a magic trick. I just it's like, you 0:20:53.000 --> 0:20:56.200 take the ingredients that you need for this thing to happen, 0:20:57.040 --> 0:21:01.040 and all of a sudden, for me at least, it 0:21:01.200 --> 0:21:08.240 feels so much less science fiction. So I had initially thought, 0:21:08.400 --> 0:21:11.639 and I do like to let this show be guided 0:21:11.720 --> 0:21:13.679 in some to some degree by my curiosity. 0:21:14.320 --> 0:21:14.480 You know. 0:21:14.520 --> 0:21:17.160 The episode after that is about super volcanoes and super volcanos. 0:21:17.160 --> 0:21:18.760 Was like, Oh, I've heard about super volcanos. I wonder 0:21:18.800 --> 0:21:23.800 what their deal is For the AI one. I started 0:21:23.840 --> 0:21:25.360 off thinking, Oh, this will be a lark, this will 0:21:25.359 --> 0:21:26.960 be fun, this will be a nice, you know, kind 0:21:26.960 --> 0:21:32.400 of more ridiculous, more sci fi ish second episode, and 0:21:32.920 --> 0:21:36.560 instead I left being like, oh boy, and we have 0:21:36.600 --> 0:21:38.320 a couple of AI episodes I don't want to get 0:21:38.520 --> 0:21:40.680 you know, I'm trying to again parcel these things out. 0:21:40.720 --> 0:21:43.840 I think we're so inundated with AI, and I think 0:21:43.840 --> 0:21:45.840 our episodes are fun and different kind of bites on them. 0:21:46.000 --> 0:21:51.040 But that was very much my feeling of it. It 0:21:51.720 --> 0:21:55.439 I don't love it. I don't love the existential possibilities 0:21:56.200 --> 0:21:59.159 of it. It doesn't mean that they will happen. It 0:21:59.200 --> 0:22:02.520 doesn't mean that they couldn't be snake oil, it doesn't 0:22:02.560 --> 0:22:06.080 mean that it couldn't all work out really really well. 0:22:07.800 --> 0:22:10.880 But I think that what I found in that episode, 0:22:10.880 --> 0:22:12.960 and I can drill down more specifically if you would like, 0:22:13.280 --> 0:22:16.479 But I just that's how I desired to approach it, 0:22:16.680 --> 0:22:18.720 and I did not land where I expected to land. 0:22:19.400 --> 0:22:24.560 So I'm always interested in how journalists podcasters pick their sources, 0:22:24.680 --> 0:22:28.119 pick their their interview subjects for topics like this, What 0:22:28.119 --> 0:22:31.560