WEBVTT - Bonus Episode: Tesla, Meta and Microsoft Earnings 

0:00:00.960 --> 0:00:04.840
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Tim

0:00:04.880 --> 0:00:06.920
<v Speaker 1>Stenevek on Bloomberg Radio.

0:00:08.160 --> 0:00:12.560
<v Speaker 2>It is Bloomberg BusinessWeek. I'm Tim Stenevek. That is Carol Masser,

0:00:12.840 --> 0:00:15.080
<v Speaker 2>and we are following what's going on with all the

0:00:15.080 --> 0:00:17.840
<v Speaker 2>companies that are reporting right now so far. In terms

0:00:17.880 --> 0:00:20.160
<v Speaker 2>of the big companies that we're following this afternoon, Carol,

0:00:20.239 --> 0:00:23.000
<v Speaker 2>we're looking at shares of Tesla, which are lower in

0:00:23.040 --> 0:00:26.040
<v Speaker 2>the after hours. In addition to that, we're also looking

0:00:26.040 --> 0:00:28.840
<v Speaker 2>at shares of Microsoft, which are following after their report.

0:00:29.040 --> 0:00:32.760
<v Speaker 3>Yeah. Absolutely, we've got Microsoft down almost four percent here

0:00:32.800 --> 0:00:36.000
<v Speaker 3>in the aftermarket. As we said, some disappointment over maybe

0:00:36.040 --> 0:00:39.920
<v Speaker 3>some of the numbers in the second quarter revenue sixty

0:00:40.000 --> 0:00:43.720
<v Speaker 3>nine point sixty three billion estimate, estimate was sixty eight

0:00:43.720 --> 0:00:44.279
<v Speaker 3>point nine two.

0:00:44.320 --> 0:00:45.040
<v Speaker 4>That's actually better.

0:00:45.080 --> 0:00:48.280
<v Speaker 3>Second quarter Azure revenue was at thirty one percent. The

0:00:48.400 --> 0:00:50.800
<v Speaker 3>estimate was for gain of thirty one point eight percent.

0:00:51.760 --> 0:00:55.400
<v Speaker 3>But the second quarter cloud revenue that missed estimate, and

0:00:55.440 --> 0:00:59.360
<v Speaker 3>so that second quarter intelligent cloud revenue twenty five point

0:00:59.440 --> 0:01:02.600
<v Speaker 3>fifty four billion dollars, the estimate was just a tad

0:01:03.000 --> 0:01:06.400
<v Speaker 3>above that at twenty five point eighty nine billion. So again,

0:01:06.440 --> 0:01:09.920
<v Speaker 3>maybe some concerns over that and expectations are high right now.

0:01:10.040 --> 0:01:13.640
<v Speaker 2>Okay, he doesn't ignore it, but he doesn't cover it

0:01:13.920 --> 0:01:15.960
<v Speaker 2>like some of his colleagues. Man keep seeing his Bloomberg

0:01:15.959 --> 0:01:20.360
<v Speaker 2>Intelligence senior technology analyst as we await meta earnings to cross.

0:01:20.600 --> 0:01:22.000
<v Speaker 2>We're going to make him go a little out of

0:01:22.000 --> 0:01:25.520
<v Speaker 2>his element and speak to Microsoft, because you can't ignore

0:01:25.680 --> 0:01:29.320
<v Speaker 2>what's going on with Microsoft. Man, deep, give us an

0:01:29.360 --> 0:01:31.480
<v Speaker 2>idea of what sticks out to you from this company.

0:01:31.800 --> 0:01:35.280
<v Speaker 5>I mean, look, the Intelligent Cloud number missed. Probably that

0:01:35.400 --> 0:01:37.920
<v Speaker 5>has to do with, you know, a lower adoption of

0:01:38.600 --> 0:01:42.080
<v Speaker 5>three sixty five co pilots. They've been touting that and

0:01:42.680 --> 0:01:45.680
<v Speaker 5>the expectations had gone up. And look, it's one of

0:01:45.720 --> 0:01:50.680
<v Speaker 5>those products where the ROI so far hasn't been there.

0:01:50.800 --> 0:01:54.320
<v Speaker 5>The promise is there, and that's why they are emphasizing

0:01:54.360 --> 0:01:57.000
<v Speaker 5>the Azure number. The thirteen billion dollar rund rate, one

0:01:57.040 --> 0:02:00.360
<v Speaker 5>hundred and seventy five percent growth. Look, it's stellar by

0:02:00.520 --> 0:02:05.240
<v Speaker 5>any comparisons. And from that perspective, the infrastructure side looks

0:02:05.240 --> 0:02:09.480
<v Speaker 5>solid right now. It's the copilots and the application side

0:02:09.720 --> 0:02:14.240
<v Speaker 5>where you're seeing some hesitation. And look, I think the

0:02:14.320 --> 0:02:18.120
<v Speaker 5>native integration with open AI as long as it's there,

0:02:18.160 --> 0:02:21.079
<v Speaker 5>it should help all their products. But there's more competition.

0:02:21.120 --> 0:02:24.519
<v Speaker 5>I mean, Salesforce has been launching their agent so there

0:02:24.639 --> 0:02:27.520
<v Speaker 5>is more competition in the application there now than there

0:02:27.520 --> 0:02:27.919
<v Speaker 5>was before.

0:02:28.000 --> 0:02:29.600
<v Speaker 3>And the point is you will build it, but will

0:02:29.600 --> 0:02:31.560
<v Speaker 3>they come? And that's what it's kind of like what

0:02:31.600 --> 0:02:32.320
<v Speaker 3>they're waiting for.

0:02:32.400 --> 0:02:37.120
<v Speaker 5>Correct, Well, if you're asking enterprises to pay thirty dollars

0:02:37.200 --> 0:02:40.800
<v Speaker 5>extra per user for that copilot feature, it better be good.

0:02:41.320 --> 0:02:44.120
<v Speaker 5>I mean, that's the you know, the key takeaway is like,

0:02:44.200 --> 0:02:47.119
<v Speaker 5>if you want to upsell such an expensive product has

0:02:47.160 --> 0:02:48.720
<v Speaker 5>to have some level of productivity.

0:02:48.840 --> 0:02:54.040
<v Speaker 2>So remind everybody where Microsoft stands in terms of the lms,

0:02:54.680 --> 0:02:56.800
<v Speaker 2>because you mentioned a company like Salesforce. Is a company

0:02:56.840 --> 0:02:59.640
<v Speaker 2>like Salesforce building its own LLLM or they building an

0:02:59.639 --> 0:03:02.880
<v Speaker 2>agent on top now an existing LLLM, maybe from Microsoft,

0:03:02.919 --> 0:03:06.240
<v Speaker 2>maybe Lama from Meta, maybe chat GPT from open Ai

0:03:06.440 --> 0:03:07.320
<v Speaker 2>or claud from.

0:03:07.200 --> 0:03:10.040
<v Speaker 5>mPire exactly, So they are not building their own LLLM.

0:03:10.160 --> 0:03:12.880
<v Speaker 5>At the same time, they have gone big in their

0:03:13.000 --> 0:03:16.560
<v Speaker 5>agent force concepts and they're saying AI agency is where

0:03:16.960 --> 0:03:19.640
<v Speaker 5>they are doubling down on and they don't need to

0:03:19.639 --> 0:03:22.040
<v Speaker 5>own an LLLM. So that's where I think with the

0:03:22.120 --> 0:03:24.560
<v Speaker 5>open source saying, you know of deep seek and the

0:03:24.639 --> 0:03:28.280
<v Speaker 5>fact that pricing is coming down, all that is positive

0:03:28.320 --> 0:03:31.839
<v Speaker 5>for every application software provider, not just Salesforce, even word

0:03:31.919 --> 0:03:36.320
<v Speaker 5>Day or SAP. They can integrate LLLM functionality now and we.

0:03:36.320 --> 0:03:39.120
<v Speaker 3>Saw software names certainly rally this week. Having said that,

0:03:39.200 --> 0:03:42.760
<v Speaker 3>Microsoft has a specially unique exposure to open AI and

0:03:42.840 --> 0:03:45.440
<v Speaker 3>chat Gypt in terms of the what thirteen fourteen.

0:03:45.160 --> 0:03:47.920
<v Speaker 4>Billion dollars or so that they have invested.

0:03:48.000 --> 0:03:50.360
<v Speaker 3>So does that put them on a certain level of

0:03:50.440 --> 0:03:52.080
<v Speaker 3>vulnerability Perhaps, No.

0:03:52.240 --> 0:03:56.360
<v Speaker 5>Because they are benefiting from the infrastructure revenue that thirteen

0:03:56.400 --> 0:04:00.320
<v Speaker 5>billion dollar rund rate. It's all Azure cloud consumption, nothing

0:04:00.360 --> 0:04:03.280
<v Speaker 5>to do with the co pilots, just companies that are

0:04:03.360 --> 0:04:08.440
<v Speaker 5>leveraging their infrastructure to run their cloud operations or deploy

0:04:08.480 --> 0:04:12.440
<v Speaker 5>their applications. So that meter is still running, and it's

0:04:12.520 --> 0:04:14.520
<v Speaker 5>running very fast. I mean, one hundred and seventy five

0:04:14.560 --> 0:04:17.880
<v Speaker 5>percent growth just on infrastructure is very impressive. It's just

0:04:17.960 --> 0:04:20.480
<v Speaker 5>the application side, the lift from copilot.

0:04:20.920 --> 0:04:21.880
<v Speaker 2>I think that's.

0:04:21.800 --> 0:04:26.040
<v Speaker 5>Where they'll probably see more competition and probably expectations were

0:04:26.040 --> 0:04:26.400
<v Speaker 5>too high.

0:04:26.520 --> 0:04:29.880
<v Speaker 2>Well, speaking of expectations, we're expecting Meta platform shares with

0:04:30.000 --> 0:04:32.800
<v Speaker 2>platforms earnings across very soon. We have no idea what

0:04:32.800 --> 0:04:34.480
<v Speaker 2>those shares are going to do in the after hours

0:04:35.080 --> 0:04:38.160
<v Speaker 2>revenue estimate coming in at close to forty seven billion dollars,

0:04:38.480 --> 0:04:41.719
<v Speaker 2>what's the most important line item that you're looking at here?

0:04:42.120 --> 0:04:45.800
<v Speaker 5>So big Meta raised its capex right before we had

0:04:45.839 --> 0:04:47.880
<v Speaker 5>this deep sixty five billion dollars.

0:04:48.279 --> 0:04:50.560
<v Speaker 2>Okay, was that before? Because that had to be on

0:04:50.560 --> 0:04:51.640
<v Speaker 2>Mark Zuckerberger's radar.

0:04:51.760 --> 0:04:54.560
<v Speaker 5>It was, but still they chose to do it. Now

0:04:54.839 --> 0:04:57.960
<v Speaker 5>the fact that this is really a positive development for

0:04:58.120 --> 0:05:01.760
<v Speaker 5>open source, everyone is thinking Meta won't have to spend

0:05:01.800 --> 0:05:04.119
<v Speaker 5>sixty to sixty five and they will take it back.

0:05:04.680 --> 0:05:07.520
<v Speaker 5>So that capex number is still the key for me

0:05:07.640 --> 0:05:11.039
<v Speaker 5>because Meta has been known for spending spending big on

0:05:11.120 --> 0:05:14.440
<v Speaker 5>reality labs and now you know, building data centers.

0:05:14.560 --> 0:05:16.479
<v Speaker 2>Are you saying that there's a chance we could hear

0:05:16.800 --> 0:05:19.480
<v Speaker 2>a pullback in that capex number and investors might cheer

0:05:19.480 --> 0:05:22.560
<v Speaker 2>that Investors cheered the investment number on Friday. I was

0:05:22.560 --> 0:05:23.480
<v Speaker 2>surprised to see that.

0:05:23.880 --> 0:05:27.200
<v Speaker 5>Not so soon, I think with the deep seek, the

0:05:27.279 --> 0:05:30.159
<v Speaker 5>fact that you know, everyone is very excited about open

0:05:30.200 --> 0:05:34.480
<v Speaker 5>source Meta coming out and saying we can monetize lama

0:05:34.600 --> 0:05:37.080
<v Speaker 5>our model, which really no one will sure how are

0:05:37.080 --> 0:05:40.039
<v Speaker 5>they going to monetize it? Suddenly, I think that's that

0:05:40.200 --> 0:05:44.560
<v Speaker 5>becomes a very valuable proposition. And I think just his

0:05:44.800 --> 0:05:48.920
<v Speaker 5>plans around how do they plan to monetize AI and

0:05:49.000 --> 0:05:52.520
<v Speaker 5>really not going above sixty five billion, that's the other

0:05:52.600 --> 0:05:55.080
<v Speaker 5>rest because you know, you could revise it further upward.

0:05:55.440 --> 0:05:58.279
<v Speaker 5>At least, I think those fears have gone away, that

0:05:58.320 --> 0:05:59.919
<v Speaker 5>they're sixty five is a cap.

0:06:00.839 --> 0:06:02.200
<v Speaker 4>We talk so much about AI.

0:06:02.640 --> 0:06:07.240
<v Speaker 3>I mean for Meta, it's still though, advertising, like something.

0:06:06.960 --> 0:06:10.320
<v Speaker 4>As simple as that is still such an important indicator.

0:06:10.440 --> 0:06:11.120
<v Speaker 4>That's their business.

0:06:11.200 --> 0:06:13.920
<v Speaker 2>I mean, forty five point six of the forty seven

0:06:14.000 --> 0:06:17.520
<v Speaker 2>billion dollars Carrol that's expected to be reported advertising, And.

0:06:17.520 --> 0:06:20.320
<v Speaker 4>I understand it all plays together, but still that's the metric.

0:06:20.360 --> 0:06:23.320
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, And the best way to compare is compare Google

0:06:23.440 --> 0:06:28.800
<v Speaker 5>search revenue growth with Meta's you know, social media ad

0:06:28.839 --> 0:06:32.799
<v Speaker 5>revenue growth. So Google Search is a two hundred billion

0:06:32.839 --> 0:06:36.000
<v Speaker 5>dollar business growing at high single they did at best.

0:06:36.560 --> 0:06:39.679
<v Speaker 5>Meta is close to one hundred and sixty billion, growing

0:06:39.720 --> 0:06:40.480
<v Speaker 5>eighteen percent.

0:06:41.000 --> 0:06:45.400
<v Speaker 2>How does reality Labs how do Reality Labs products help

0:06:46.839 --> 0:06:50.640
<v Speaker 2>meta platforms sell advertising better? Well?

0:06:50.680 --> 0:06:53.680
<v Speaker 5>So their bed is on that Meta AI, which for

0:06:53.760 --> 0:06:56.280
<v Speaker 5>which they have six hundred million users now. And the

0:06:56.320 --> 0:06:59.520
<v Speaker 5>form factor, their own form factor is the glasses that

0:06:59.560 --> 0:07:02.479
<v Speaker 5>you can distill a model. And everyone is talking about

0:07:02.480 --> 0:07:05.800
<v Speaker 5>distillation right now because that's what deep Seek showed us.

0:07:05.800 --> 0:07:08.719
<v Speaker 5>That you can distill a larger model into a smaller model.

0:07:09.000 --> 0:07:10.960
<v Speaker 5>Maybe that model can run on your glasses.

0:07:11.040 --> 0:07:13.480
<v Speaker 2>Okay, how does that help me sell it more ads?

0:07:13.520 --> 0:07:16.680
<v Speaker 5>Well, they will learn so much more about you as

0:07:16.720 --> 0:07:19.320
<v Speaker 5>a person that they can show you a more personalized

0:07:19.360 --> 0:07:22.200
<v Speaker 5>ad when you go to Instagram or Facebook. And that's

0:07:22.200 --> 0:07:24.680
<v Speaker 5>where you know. Meta strength has always been the quality

0:07:24.720 --> 0:07:25.240
<v Speaker 5>of their ads.

0:07:25.320 --> 0:07:26.480
<v Speaker 2>So still, at the end of the day, that's what

0:07:26.520 --> 0:07:27.080
<v Speaker 2>it's all about.

0:07:27.280 --> 0:07:28.520
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, at least for now.

0:07:28.360 --> 0:07:30.000
<v Speaker 3>I just want to remind everybody. I'm looking at our

0:07:30.040 --> 0:07:33.000
<v Speaker 3>live blog, which is waiting for Meta's fourth quarter earnings.

0:07:33.440 --> 0:07:35.720
<v Speaker 3>Our Kurt Wagner says they usually drop a few minutes

0:07:35.760 --> 0:07:37.920
<v Speaker 3>after the market close at four pm New York time.

0:07:38.560 --> 0:07:41.080
<v Speaker 3>Still waiting on them, they say, He says, it's a

0:07:41.120 --> 0:07:43.760
<v Speaker 3>bit of a rare delay. We usually have them, like

0:07:43.800 --> 0:07:47.400
<v Speaker 3>we said, right after the market close, so we're waiting them.

0:07:47.520 --> 0:07:49.000
<v Speaker 3>As soon as they come across. We're going to have

0:07:49.000 --> 0:07:51.520
<v Speaker 3>men deep break them down. Also in studio is our

0:07:51.560 --> 0:07:54.120
<v Speaker 3>own Caroline Hyde, who's co host of Bloomberg Technology on

0:07:54.120 --> 0:07:57.440
<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg Television. And Caroline, we've also had Tesla earnings. We've

0:07:57.440 --> 0:07:59.720
<v Speaker 3>been talking with Man Deep about Microsoft as we await

0:07:59.760 --> 0:08:02.920
<v Speaker 3>Meta go where you are because it just feels like

0:08:02.960 --> 0:08:04.920
<v Speaker 3>both Microsoft and Tests I've seen some pressure here in

0:08:04.960 --> 0:08:05.240
<v Speaker 3>the act.

0:08:05.360 --> 0:08:07.760
<v Speaker 1>And also I don't know if you've broken down Service Now,

0:08:07.840 --> 0:08:11.760
<v Speaker 1>but suddenly software became quite the thing of this week

0:08:11.840 --> 0:08:14.960
<v Speaker 1>because we all suddenly freaked out about AI infrastructure and hardware.

0:08:14.960 --> 0:08:17.120
<v Speaker 1>But with software going to be gaining from these Deep

0:08:17.160 --> 0:08:20.640
<v Speaker 1>Seek revelations, Service now actually looking pretty lackluster. Outlook on

0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:23.360
<v Speaker 1>the slower than have been anticipated. We were thinking AI

0:08:23.480 --> 0:08:25.680
<v Speaker 1>was going to give it this massive bump. Overall fiscal

0:08:25.760 --> 0:08:29.560
<v Speaker 1>year sales outlook fell short of those expectations. Subscription revenue

0:08:29.640 --> 0:08:31.880
<v Speaker 1>going to be twelve point seven billion dollars twenty twenty five.

0:08:32.080 --> 0:08:34.480
<v Speaker 1>Market want to see more, so their shares are dropping hard,

0:08:34.760 --> 0:08:36.040
<v Speaker 1>and I think this is where we're going to have

0:08:36.080 --> 0:08:38.920
<v Speaker 1>to hear more from Microsoft as well. Is the Open

0:08:38.960 --> 0:08:42.040
<v Speaker 1>AI integrated offering not selling at the pace that they

0:08:42.120 --> 0:08:44.960
<v Speaker 1>previoubly expected. I've heard from experts out there saying it's

0:08:44.960 --> 0:08:48.240
<v Speaker 1>priced too high. Ultimately, at the moment, will Deep seek

0:08:48.480 --> 0:08:52.480
<v Speaker 1>force open AI's own offering to get cheaper, Microsoft's offering

0:08:52.520 --> 0:08:54.800
<v Speaker 1>to get cheaper, and therefore it becomes more ubiquitous.

0:08:54.800 --> 0:08:56.880
<v Speaker 6>We will start using it more. But ultimately they get

0:08:56.880 --> 0:08:58.040
<v Speaker 6>more bang for the back in the long term.

0:08:58.040 --> 0:09:00.120
<v Speaker 2>Doesn't mean that these companies could potentially pull back some

0:09:00.200 --> 0:09:01.800
<v Speaker 2>of the capeck they've already announced this year.

0:09:02.480 --> 0:09:04.640
<v Speaker 1>I think that was interesting in the and we talked

0:09:04.679 --> 0:09:08.199
<v Speaker 1>about it when the numbers dropped. Amy Hoard the CFOs

0:09:08.320 --> 0:09:09.719
<v Speaker 1>talking about the discipline.

0:09:09.960 --> 0:09:12.400
<v Speaker 6>Now, last year we were not talking about discipline. We

0:09:12.400 --> 0:09:13.079
<v Speaker 6>were talking like.

0:09:13.120 --> 0:09:15.480
<v Speaker 1>Let's throw eighty billion dollars at this. We just heard

0:09:15.520 --> 0:09:18.160
<v Speaker 1>another half a trillion being thrown at it from Oracle

0:09:18.240 --> 0:09:20.600
<v Speaker 1>Soft Bank and open Ai. I think you'll start to

0:09:20.600 --> 0:09:22.920
<v Speaker 1>hear this. This is why spending. This is return on

0:09:22.960 --> 0:09:23.640
<v Speaker 1>AI spending.

0:09:23.880 --> 0:09:25.880
<v Speaker 2>Not quite a year of efficiency like we saw in

0:09:25.920 --> 0:09:28.800
<v Speaker 2>you know, twenty twenty three, but now discipline spending.

0:09:29.000 --> 0:09:30.760
<v Speaker 6>When it comes to com we're just spending wisely on

0:09:30.800 --> 0:09:31.160
<v Speaker 6>your data.

0:09:31.280 --> 0:09:32.640
<v Speaker 4>Just because you say it doesn't mean you're going to

0:09:32.640 --> 0:09:33.560
<v Speaker 4>spend it ultimately too.

0:09:33.640 --> 0:09:35.280
<v Speaker 3>I do want to point out service now reports an

0:09:35.320 --> 0:09:38.160
<v Speaker 3>additional three billion dollars for share a buyback with the stuff.

0:09:38.360 --> 0:09:40.120
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, but it's still down about nine percent here in

0:09:40.120 --> 0:09:41.880
<v Speaker 4>the aftermarket. But men Deep come.

0:09:41.800 --> 0:09:44.400
<v Speaker 3>Back in because we were talking about, you know, the

0:09:44.440 --> 0:09:46.439
<v Speaker 3>news we got this week from deep seek that the

0:09:46.480 --> 0:09:50.240
<v Speaker 3>beneficiary seemed to be the software software providers. Not every

0:09:50.240 --> 0:09:52.760
<v Speaker 3>software provider though, is the same, correct.

0:09:52.600 --> 0:09:55.720
<v Speaker 5>Well, I mean a company like Service now in theory,

0:09:55.840 --> 0:09:59.440
<v Speaker 5>should benefit from lower LLM costs. I mean, all the

0:09:59.520 --> 0:10:03.800
<v Speaker 5>software companies could arbitrage against the LM providers and say,

0:10:04.040 --> 0:10:06.560
<v Speaker 5>if I have a cheaper open source option, I'm going

0:10:06.600 --> 0:10:08.960
<v Speaker 5>to go with that because the quality of responses are

0:10:09.040 --> 0:10:11.839
<v Speaker 5>very similar. So from that perspective, I mean, the news

0:10:11.920 --> 0:10:15.520
<v Speaker 5>just came out, so obviously they didn't embrace open source before.

0:10:15.880 --> 0:10:17.880
<v Speaker 5>And now a lot will change in the next three

0:10:17.920 --> 0:10:20.840
<v Speaker 5>to six months, But for now, I think expectator to

0:10:20.880 --> 0:10:25.600
<v Speaker 5>Caroline's point, expectations are high this quarter and a lot

0:10:25.640 --> 0:10:29.120
<v Speaker 5>of these companies have touted AI agents in a big way,

0:10:29.520 --> 0:10:32.080
<v Speaker 5>so the street wants to see their revenue and probably

0:10:32.120 --> 0:10:33.920
<v Speaker 5>it's not showing up right now.

0:10:34.000 --> 0:10:36.160
<v Speaker 1>And I had a really interesting conversation with that expert

0:10:36.160 --> 0:10:40.480
<v Speaker 1>who's helping integrate generative AI into enterprise offerings.

0:10:40.840 --> 0:10:42.040
<v Speaker 6>And here's the gap.

0:10:42.200 --> 0:10:42.360
<v Speaker 7>Right.

0:10:42.400 --> 0:10:43.559
<v Speaker 6>We've been talking.

0:10:43.440 --> 0:10:46.520
<v Speaker 1>Deeply, exuberantly about how it's going to make our productivity

0:10:46.600 --> 0:10:49.040
<v Speaker 1>so much better. Ultimately, enterprises need to know that their

0:10:49.080 --> 0:10:51.600
<v Speaker 1>models work and they need to stress test them. They

0:10:51.600 --> 0:10:54.040
<v Speaker 1>need to have the right companies in there ensuring that well,

0:10:54.080 --> 0:10:55.640
<v Speaker 1>when you're saying it's going to get you a better

0:10:55.640 --> 0:10:58.520
<v Speaker 1>mortgage outcome, when you're looking at insurance inquiries, you're actually

0:10:58.520 --> 0:10:59.320
<v Speaker 1>getting the right output.

0:10:59.559 --> 0:11:00.800
<v Speaker 6>Companies are trying.

0:11:00.520 --> 0:11:02.200
<v Speaker 1>To integrate it, but they've got to do this with

0:11:02.280 --> 0:11:03.719
<v Speaker 1>some rules of the road, so it actually takes a

0:11:03.720 --> 0:11:04.160
<v Speaker 1>bit of time.

0:11:04.280 --> 0:11:05.959
<v Speaker 2>Okay, speaking of rules to the road, perhaps a good

0:11:05.960 --> 0:11:08.480
<v Speaker 2>segue to get to Tesla because shares are down about

0:11:08.480 --> 0:11:12.560
<v Speaker 2>two point seven percent right now. It seems, Caroline like

0:11:12.760 --> 0:11:16.120
<v Speaker 2>it was the adjusted EPs that came in shy of

0:11:16.240 --> 0:11:18.800
<v Speaker 2>estimates seventy three cents per share versus estimates of seventy

0:11:18.800 --> 0:11:21.120
<v Speaker 2>five cents per share. Is it about a lack of

0:11:21.160 --> 0:11:24.080
<v Speaker 2>efficiency on the supply chain, on the product line? What

0:11:24.200 --> 0:11:24.400
<v Speaker 2>is it?

0:11:24.440 --> 0:11:26.800
<v Speaker 1>Am they're saying they're not getting the manufacturing savings that

0:11:26.840 --> 0:11:29.120
<v Speaker 1>they wanted to see efficiency.

0:11:29.240 --> 0:11:30.319
<v Speaker 2>Have they tried the blockchain?

0:11:30.559 --> 0:11:30.760
<v Speaker 7>Yeah?

0:11:30.760 --> 0:11:31.680
<v Speaker 6>Have they tried a blockchain.

0:11:32.440 --> 0:11:35.760
<v Speaker 1>Have they tried just making everyone have to come back

0:11:35.760 --> 0:11:39.000
<v Speaker 1>into the office, but more I mean, you know it's

0:11:39.040 --> 0:11:40.040
<v Speaker 1>been on that for a long time.

0:11:40.040 --> 0:11:42.120
<v Speaker 6>But more affordable models is where it's at.

0:11:42.200 --> 0:11:44.240
<v Speaker 1>This is a company that is having to compete from

0:11:44.280 --> 0:11:47.120
<v Speaker 1>a price perspective in China in a big way. And look,

0:11:47.160 --> 0:11:50.160
<v Speaker 1>we saw deliveries did not live up to expectations. So

0:11:50.240 --> 0:11:52.440
<v Speaker 1>already they're not selling as money, they're having to reduce

0:11:52.480 --> 0:11:55.200
<v Speaker 1>the costs. It's interesting they're seeing the automotive gross margin

0:11:55.240 --> 0:11:57.679
<v Speaker 1>ex regulatory credits still at thirteen point six percent. This

0:11:57.720 --> 0:11:59.360
<v Speaker 1>is a company that basically makes an awful lot of

0:11:59.400 --> 0:12:03.520
<v Speaker 1>money that because other car manufacturers can't get the climate

0:12:03.559 --> 0:12:04.920
<v Speaker 1>initiatives out there quickly enough.

0:12:04.920 --> 0:12:06.240
<v Speaker 6>I wonder if that'll dial back.

0:12:06.559 --> 0:12:09.520
<v Speaker 1>But ultimately they did say they achieved record deliveries in

0:12:09.600 --> 0:12:12.040
<v Speaker 1>China in fourth quarter. I wonder how they manage to

0:12:12.080 --> 0:12:14.280
<v Speaker 1>be able to just keep on competing there.

0:12:14.600 --> 0:12:17.040
<v Speaker 5>And no mention of robot taxis. I mean, the big

0:12:17.080 --> 0:12:21.520
<v Speaker 5>bet was this administration should help expedite the rollout of

0:12:21.559 --> 0:12:24.040
<v Speaker 5>Tesla robot taxis that's what investors are betting.

0:12:24.200 --> 0:12:25.760
<v Speaker 2>The letter they did say this is going to be

0:12:25.840 --> 0:12:29.400
<v Speaker 2>the year of supervised fully self driving, but we're still

0:12:29.400 --> 0:12:31.679
<v Speaker 2>waiting to see what the guidances from the federal government.

0:12:31.720 --> 0:12:35.400
<v Speaker 1>The cybercab is on track for twenty twenty six, so

0:12:36.240 --> 0:12:39.120
<v Speaker 1>ultimately they're talking about still being wanting to.

0:12:39.040 --> 0:12:43.000
<v Speaker 6>Get that cybercab out there. In the meanwhile, we're having

0:12:43.000 --> 0:12:43.480
<v Speaker 6>to see.

0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:46.880
<v Speaker 1>Whether or that cheaper price point new vehicle will happen.

0:12:46.920 --> 0:12:49.439
<v Speaker 1>He's saying, new vehicles remain on track for the output

0:12:49.480 --> 0:12:50.600
<v Speaker 1>start in the first half.

0:12:51.160 --> 0:12:52.600
<v Speaker 6>When where how I.

0:12:52.600 --> 0:12:53.400
<v Speaker 4>Just want to update.

0:12:53.720 --> 0:12:55.960
<v Speaker 3>Meta shares are just down about five tenths in the

0:12:56.440 --> 0:12:58.000
<v Speaker 3>after hours, five tens of one percent.

0:12:58.040 --> 0:12:58.800
<v Speaker 4>Our Kurt Wagner and.

0:12:58.800 --> 0:13:01.920
<v Speaker 3>Our live blog says, the latest Meta or Facebook they

0:13:02.000 --> 0:13:04.439
<v Speaker 3>ever posted earnings is for sixteen pm. We have now

0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:07.120
<v Speaker 3>a new record because it's for twenty pm here on

0:13:07.320 --> 0:13:10.400
<v Speaker 3>this Wednesday. He says, in all seriousness, this is definitely unusual.

0:13:10.440 --> 0:13:12.680
<v Speaker 3>I've asked the company what is going on? Will report

0:13:12.720 --> 0:13:14.839
<v Speaker 3>back if I get any news. I was trying to

0:13:14.840 --> 0:13:16.720
<v Speaker 3>see if there was any interesting activity here in the

0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:20.360
<v Speaker 3>aftermarket ahead of the actual results. But again it's just

0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:22.280
<v Speaker 3>down a hair down about four tens of a percent,

0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:24.280
<v Speaker 3>but still waiting on Meta's results.

0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:26.400
<v Speaker 4>I don't know manty if you follow them, right, they're

0:13:26.480 --> 0:13:27.840
<v Speaker 4>usually up by now.

0:13:28.120 --> 0:13:30.920
<v Speaker 5>I mean it reminds me on when Nvidia, I think

0:13:30.960 --> 0:13:33.560
<v Speaker 5>it was a few quarters back they were delayed and

0:13:33.600 --> 0:13:36.920
<v Speaker 5>everyone was like, what's going on? And sometimes I think

0:13:37.480 --> 0:13:41.200
<v Speaker 5>it's one of those situations where yeah, there isn't much

0:13:41.240 --> 0:13:41.559
<v Speaker 5>to it.

0:13:41.559 --> 0:13:44.760
<v Speaker 2>It's just there is a delay and you just wait

0:13:44.840 --> 0:13:45.160
<v Speaker 2>it out.

0:13:45.160 --> 0:13:48.400
<v Speaker 5>But look, I think in the case of Meta, I mean,

0:13:48.840 --> 0:13:52.800
<v Speaker 5>there's so many things that I think investors are looking

0:13:52.840 --> 0:13:56.480
<v Speaker 5>forward to. Especially there was a number around Reality Laps

0:13:56.520 --> 0:13:59.319
<v Speaker 5>growing forty percent for twenty twenty four, right, I mean

0:13:59.320 --> 0:14:02.720
<v Speaker 5>you look at the census expectations for this quarter, it's

0:14:02.760 --> 0:14:05.320
<v Speaker 5>like three percent growth. Yeah, so I don't know how

0:14:05.360 --> 0:14:07.240
<v Speaker 5>they grew forty percent for the full year.

0:14:08.559 --> 0:14:10.800
<v Speaker 2>Caroline, come on in here. Is that? Is that because

0:14:10.920 --> 0:14:14.679
<v Speaker 2>the I don't know, the glasses exceeded expectations. Again, we're

0:14:14.679 --> 0:14:17.720
<v Speaker 2>still waiting for these numbers across Reality Lads a tiny,

0:14:17.880 --> 0:14:21.320
<v Speaker 2>tiny portion of the company's full revenue. I mean of

0:14:21.400 --> 0:14:24.680
<v Speaker 2>tiny fraction, but an area where they're investing a lot

0:14:24.720 --> 0:14:26.440
<v Speaker 2>and where they think there's a real future.

0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:27.880
<v Speaker 6>And people got very excited about the product. Did you

0:14:27.920 --> 0:14:30.720
<v Speaker 6>see how often Ed Ludlow has been wearing hiss. I've

0:14:30.760 --> 0:14:33.240
<v Speaker 6>heard they really did.

0:14:33.120 --> 0:14:35.760
<v Speaker 1>Blow people's minds as to how exciting the future could

0:14:35.800 --> 0:14:38.840
<v Speaker 1>be of just the integration within your everyday where suddenly,

0:14:38.880 --> 0:14:41.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, smart glasses became cool and thanks Raybound and

0:14:41.680 --> 0:14:42.440
<v Speaker 1>a large part of that.

0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:45.520
<v Speaker 2>But Google glasses calling. They're saying, hey, we had this

0:14:45.600 --> 0:14:48.680
<v Speaker 2>ten years ago, but it didn't stick, and what you want.

0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:49.680
<v Speaker 6>Is the zeitgeist.

0:14:49.800 --> 0:14:52.240
<v Speaker 1>Right, Sure, people might not buy that iteration, what about

0:14:52.240 --> 0:14:54.160
<v Speaker 1>the next iteration. What about the fact that this is

0:14:54.200 --> 0:14:56.520
<v Speaker 1>going to in some way be infused within your work

0:14:56.560 --> 0:14:59.040
<v Speaker 1>life environment as well, and suddenly you'll be able to

0:14:59.080 --> 0:15:02.920
<v Speaker 1>have forced meanes wherever you are, not just to I

0:15:02.960 --> 0:15:06.040
<v Speaker 1>think it suddenly just showed the power more than anything

0:15:06.120 --> 0:15:09.120
<v Speaker 1>of Mark Zuckerberg to interlace General to Bai everywhere. For me,

0:15:09.200 --> 0:15:11.320
<v Speaker 1>the big standout has been the fact that I do

0:15:11.480 --> 0:15:13.560
<v Speaker 1>use General to Bai within my Instagram.

0:15:14.240 --> 0:15:16.600
<v Speaker 2>What you do just out of curiosity my metter.

0:15:16.400 --> 0:15:19.160
<v Speaker 1>Ai psidekick and I ask it questions. I get it

0:15:19.200 --> 0:15:21.760
<v Speaker 1>to like design what one should wear for an event.

0:15:21.880 --> 0:15:23.600
<v Speaker 1>I give it pictures of my fridge and get it

0:15:23.640 --> 0:15:24.840
<v Speaker 1>to recommend what I should be.

0:15:25.240 --> 0:15:25.960
<v Speaker 6>Do you follow it?

0:15:26.040 --> 0:15:27.600
<v Speaker 4>Do you use it? I mean, do you like, take

0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:28.720
<v Speaker 4>these things and actually do something.

0:15:28.800 --> 0:15:32.240
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah, yeah, definitely what they should cook sometimes the

0:15:32.240 --> 0:15:33.920
<v Speaker 1>fashion sense, I like, take a little.

0:15:33.800 --> 0:15:35.960
<v Speaker 2>But to be clear, you could also use chat gpt

0:15:36.080 --> 0:15:39.080
<v Speaker 2>from open Ai to do that or that.

0:15:40.640 --> 0:15:43.320
<v Speaker 1>I use what'sapp every day of my life to talk

0:15:43.360 --> 0:15:44.080
<v Speaker 1>with my family.

0:15:43.840 --> 0:15:46.720
<v Speaker 2>So I don't subscribe to the expensive versions of I

0:15:46.920 --> 0:15:50.560
<v Speaker 2>take the free version of not not for my personal

0:15:50.640 --> 0:15:53.280
<v Speaker 2>agent to you know, to get me a flight to wherever,

0:15:53.920 --> 0:15:55.560
<v Speaker 2>which I think is a really cool idea. And I

0:15:55.560 --> 0:15:57.640
<v Speaker 2>think that shows the promise of agents. And you know,

0:15:57.680 --> 0:15:59.640
<v Speaker 2>we hear salesforce talking about the promise of agents and

0:15:59.640 --> 0:16:03.960
<v Speaker 2>stuff like that. But are you able to do for

0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:07.280
<v Speaker 2>free with Lama what you could pay chat gpt to do?

0:16:07.400 --> 0:16:08.200
<v Speaker 2>Is that an issue?

0:16:08.320 --> 0:16:10.320
<v Speaker 1>I have to say personally, I'm not running the two

0:16:10.320 --> 0:16:14.000
<v Speaker 1>against each other, and I use chatchipt for other things.

0:16:14.040 --> 0:16:18.120
<v Speaker 1>I'm using chatchipt to articulate what my O pair because

0:16:18.120 --> 0:16:20.320
<v Speaker 1>we will have to rely while I'm at work on

0:16:20.600 --> 0:16:23.360
<v Speaker 1>wonderful people looking after your children, how her weak should look, and.

0:16:23.320 --> 0:16:24.600
<v Speaker 6>I just speak into it dictated.

0:16:24.640 --> 0:16:26.760
<v Speaker 1>So I'm using different things at different points, but for me,

0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:28.760
<v Speaker 1>I actually end up going towards the metal offerings A

0:16:28.800 --> 0:16:29.280
<v Speaker 1>bit more.

0:16:29.160 --> 0:16:30.200
<v Speaker 6>Just because they are here.

0:16:30.280 --> 0:16:34.000
<v Speaker 1>We're seeing interesting an agreement from the Wall Street Journal

0:16:34.040 --> 0:16:36.520
<v Speaker 1>talking about some Trump signing an agreement calling for Meta

0:16:36.560 --> 0:16:38.520
<v Speaker 1>to pay some element to settle a suit.

0:16:38.600 --> 0:16:40.400
<v Speaker 6>So maybe there's some breaking.

0:16:40.080 --> 0:16:43.520
<v Speaker 1>News there, But I am I am using Meta AI

0:16:43.680 --> 0:16:46.240
<v Speaker 1>just because it's already an app that I'm using when it's.

0:16:45.920 --> 0:16:47.720
<v Speaker 3>I just want to mention Microsoft is not down as

0:16:47.800 --> 0:16:50.480
<v Speaker 3>much as it was earlier. It's now down about three

0:16:50.560 --> 0:16:53.240
<v Speaker 3>quarters of one percentage point. Tesla is now down only

0:16:53.280 --> 0:16:55.320
<v Speaker 3>about nine tens of a percentage point. I want to

0:16:55.320 --> 0:16:58.560
<v Speaker 3>mention IBM because we are seeing this one rally in

0:16:58.600 --> 0:17:01.640
<v Speaker 3>the aftermarket following its earnings. This one's up about eight

0:17:01.720 --> 0:17:04.960
<v Speaker 3>percent here. IBM coming out with results kind of older tech,

0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:07.320
<v Speaker 3>if you will, but jumping after fiscal year revenue growth

0:17:07.359 --> 0:17:11.520
<v Speaker 3>outlook tops estimates. We mentioned service now, and we are

0:17:11.600 --> 0:17:14.120
<v Speaker 3>seeing that one move in a big way. We've seen

0:17:14.119 --> 0:17:17.399
<v Speaker 3>that move to the downside. Some concerns there. We do have,

0:17:17.560 --> 0:17:21.160
<v Speaker 3>as you said, that headline crossing from the Wall Street Journal,

0:17:21.200 --> 0:17:23.280
<v Speaker 3>Trump signs of settlement for Meta to pay twenty five

0:17:23.320 --> 0:17:26.359
<v Speaker 3>million dollars to settle a suit. So perhaps that is

0:17:26.480 --> 0:17:30.280
<v Speaker 3>why we might be waiting ultimately for Meta's results. Meta

0:17:30.359 --> 0:17:32.800
<v Speaker 3>in the aftermarket right now is just down about one

0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:35.520
<v Speaker 3>quarter of one percent. And I've been also looking at

0:17:35.520 --> 0:17:38.320
<v Speaker 3>the Nasdaq E Mini one hundred, Nasdaq one hundred E

0:17:38.359 --> 0:17:41.199
<v Speaker 3>mini futures pretty flat in the after market, and S

0:17:41.280 --> 0:17:43.800
<v Speaker 3>and P five hundred e mini futures they're down about

0:17:43.800 --> 0:17:46.280
<v Speaker 3>four tens of a percent, So just kind of rolling

0:17:46.320 --> 0:17:48.560
<v Speaker 3>everything together to see kind of market reaction.

0:17:48.680 --> 0:17:50.919
<v Speaker 2>In Tesla though, hire now by about one percent.

0:17:50.920 --> 0:17:52.920
<v Speaker 3>That's why I'm saying, it's like kind of fascinating to

0:17:52.960 --> 0:17:55.119
<v Speaker 3>see the bump up. You're right now up about one percent.

0:17:55.200 --> 0:17:57.160
<v Speaker 1>And I think what's interesting is remember in video you're

0:17:57.160 --> 0:18:00.159
<v Speaker 1>talking tim earlier about the hit and video took the

0:18:00.200 --> 0:18:02.800
<v Speaker 1>chairs a climbing now after hours because of Microsoft's long

0:18:02.880 --> 0:18:05.960
<v Speaker 1>term CAPEX commitment. So maybe even though we don't get

0:18:05.960 --> 0:18:08.960
<v Speaker 1>in video numbers until February the twenty sixth, Microsoft's already

0:18:09.000 --> 0:18:11.879
<v Speaker 1>coming out standing by its capital expenditure commitment. If we

0:18:11.920 --> 0:18:14.440
<v Speaker 1>get Meta committing to that sixty five billion dollars once

0:18:14.440 --> 0:18:16.520
<v Speaker 1>and again, maybe we do start to see in video

0:18:17.080 --> 0:18:18.800
<v Speaker 1>clowing back some of the loss that we've seen.

0:18:18.960 --> 0:18:20.520
<v Speaker 2>And a good reminder too that we still have a

0:18:20.560 --> 0:18:23.080
<v Speaker 2>lot of details that we're waiting on about deep Seek

0:18:23.160 --> 0:18:24.919
<v Speaker 2>and what exactly they were able to do with what.

0:18:25.920 --> 0:18:27.439
<v Speaker 6>So some investigations going on.

0:18:27.440 --> 0:18:28.000
<v Speaker 2>The investigation.

0:18:28.119 --> 0:18:30.240
<v Speaker 1>Microsoft got their ownings out on time and we're doing

0:18:30.480 --> 0:18:31.600
<v Speaker 1>an investigation.

0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:34.720
<v Speaker 2>Room of engineers reportedly, so I want to bring you

0:18:34.760 --> 0:18:35.200
<v Speaker 2>back in there.

0:18:35.240 --> 0:18:37.359
<v Speaker 3>Could it possibly be that there's a delay because of

0:18:37.400 --> 0:18:40.240
<v Speaker 3>this settlement and they want to kind of like roll

0:18:40.280 --> 0:18:40.919
<v Speaker 3>it all together.

0:18:41.200 --> 0:18:43.119
<v Speaker 5>That mountain looks too small to matter.

0:18:43.240 --> 0:18:44.080
<v Speaker 4>It doesn't matter.

0:18:45.480 --> 0:18:47.560
<v Speaker 2>Five million for Meta, it's like.

0:18:47.640 --> 0:18:50.520
<v Speaker 1>And that was under the over the Trump suspension to

0:18:50.800 --> 0:18:53.639
<v Speaker 1>the use of Facebook and its family of apps.

0:18:53.960 --> 0:18:55.879
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I just think about the stories we've been putting out.

0:18:56.040 --> 0:18:58.639
<v Speaker 5>They're paying billion dollar fines in the EU, so this

0:18:58.840 --> 0:18:59.680
<v Speaker 5>is like a drop.

0:19:00.080 --> 0:19:00.720
<v Speaker 4>This is nothing.

0:19:01.119 --> 0:19:04.159
<v Speaker 3>I mean, it's kind of fascinating that to see that

0:19:04.200 --> 0:19:05.119
<v Speaker 3>we're just kind of waiting for.

0:19:05.440 --> 0:19:09.080
<v Speaker 1>Tesla's on time, on time, better is late what a

0:19:09.119 --> 0:19:11.000
<v Speaker 1>turnaround for and Test is now up.

0:19:10.920 --> 0:19:13.480
<v Speaker 3>About two point six percent in the aftermarket, So quite

0:19:13.520 --> 0:19:15.439
<v Speaker 3>a turn around here, wow.

0:19:15.720 --> 0:19:19.119
<v Speaker 1>I Yeah, it is notable metas delay and we have

0:19:19.240 --> 0:19:22.919
<v Speaker 1>got requests out for comment on what might be holding

0:19:22.920 --> 0:19:25.560
<v Speaker 1>them up. But this is I feel there's going to

0:19:25.600 --> 0:19:29.280
<v Speaker 1>be a lot of redrafting of messaging going on since Monday,

0:19:29.359 --> 0:19:31.439
<v Speaker 1>And look what of very difficult the week to have

0:19:31.720 --> 0:19:34.320
<v Speaker 1>your earnings on when you're trying to understand the competitive

0:19:34.359 --> 0:19:36.920
<v Speaker 1>threat of deep Seek to Alarma model, which are both

0:19:36.960 --> 0:19:38.520
<v Speaker 1>open source, but at the same time the way in

0:19:38.520 --> 0:19:41.400
<v Speaker 1>which it could enhance their products. Everyone read deep Seek

0:19:41.480 --> 0:19:44.359
<v Speaker 1>as a good thing for LLM, for Lama and open

0:19:44.359 --> 0:19:47.080
<v Speaker 1>source lms, but maybe there is a question of ultimately,

0:19:47.080 --> 0:19:50.360
<v Speaker 1>why should you be backing AI homegrown, open source versus

0:19:51.080 --> 0:19:52.120
<v Speaker 1>competing versus China.

0:19:52.119 --> 0:19:54.080
<v Speaker 3>I mean, men, Deep do you think that the narrative

0:19:54.240 --> 0:19:57.160
<v Speaker 3>like substantially should be different because of what we got

0:19:57.200 --> 0:19:59.760
<v Speaker 3>on Monday from deep Seek, Like the conversation that we

0:19:59.840 --> 0:20:02.320
<v Speaker 3>are having around AI in terms of the spend. Was

0:20:02.320 --> 0:20:03.639
<v Speaker 3>it smart for us to kind of all of a

0:20:03.680 --> 0:20:06.120
<v Speaker 3>sudden shift It felt like the narrative or time will

0:20:06.160 --> 0:20:08.840
<v Speaker 3>tell whether again with there's so many questions still about

0:20:08.840 --> 0:20:10.040
<v Speaker 3>the reality of what they did.

0:20:10.320 --> 0:20:12.800
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I mean, look, last six months you've been talking

0:20:12.840 --> 0:20:16.639
<v Speaker 5>about scaling laws non stop. It's like everything is how

0:20:17.080 --> 0:20:19.200
<v Speaker 5>big are the data center is going to get? How

0:20:19.240 --> 0:20:23.040
<v Speaker 5>long will the scaling laws hold? So from that perspective,

0:20:23.119 --> 0:20:26.760
<v Speaker 5>I think this does put a question mark around the

0:20:26.800 --> 0:20:29.880
<v Speaker 5>scaling laws. You know, how big does the LLM need

0:20:29.920 --> 0:20:33.600
<v Speaker 5>to get to improve its reasoning? Well, a smaller LLM

0:20:33.680 --> 0:20:38.320
<v Speaker 5>can give you a similar reasoning as open AIE latest model.

0:20:38.400 --> 0:20:43.160
<v Speaker 5>And look, I think with llms, because it's so hard

0:20:43.200 --> 0:20:47.399
<v Speaker 5>to understand everything about how these llms are trained, the

0:20:47.520 --> 0:20:52.399
<v Speaker 5>data sources, the algorithmic improvements, it's still a black box.

0:20:52.440 --> 0:20:55.399
<v Speaker 5>I mean, things are getting better in terms of the transparency,

0:20:55.800 --> 0:20:59.640
<v Speaker 5>but in the end common people cannot interpret what's going

0:20:59.680 --> 0:21:02.879
<v Speaker 5>on in terms of building these llms, and it's really

0:21:02.960 --> 0:21:06.920
<v Speaker 5>hard to explain it to someone why an llm's quality

0:21:07.119 --> 0:21:11.080
<v Speaker 5>is better than the competing LLM. It's just almost impossible

0:21:11.119 --> 0:21:13.080
<v Speaker 5>because it's all vectorized map.

0:21:13.160 --> 0:21:15.840
<v Speaker 2>At the end of the day, do they become commodities?

0:21:15.880 --> 0:21:19.240
<v Speaker 6>Caroline, I think that has been the question for a while.

0:21:19.359 --> 0:21:24.600
<v Speaker 1>That will ultimately just move toggle between CHATCHBT, your meta offering,

0:21:24.640 --> 0:21:27.040
<v Speaker 1>what Anthropic has been up to. That doesn't mean that

0:21:27.080 --> 0:21:30.040
<v Speaker 1>you can't still see an awful lot of money having

0:21:30.080 --> 0:21:33.400
<v Speaker 1>to be invested in these latest and greatest underlying foundational models.

0:21:33.640 --> 0:21:37.560
<v Speaker 1>Whether eventually the money will accrue to the application layers,

0:21:37.600 --> 0:21:38.840
<v Speaker 1>to the software layer.

0:21:38.720 --> 0:21:40.520
<v Speaker 2>Well, I do think there's a compelling case for Google

0:21:40.520 --> 0:21:43.120
<v Speaker 2>to make that behind the scenes. If you're using an

0:21:43.119 --> 0:21:45.520
<v Speaker 2>AI agent and you ask it to do something complicated,

0:21:45.840 --> 0:21:48.800
<v Speaker 2>Google and actually Microsoft too with being has that search

0:21:48.880 --> 0:21:52.479
<v Speaker 2>engine built in that can actually do that stuff, and

0:21:52.600 --> 0:21:54.240
<v Speaker 2>perhaps they make money more.

0:21:54.160 --> 0:21:56.760
<v Speaker 6>Of integrated offering as well.

0:21:56.760 --> 0:21:58.760
<v Speaker 1>They have to have the foundational layer to then sell

0:21:58.800 --> 0:22:01.560
<v Speaker 1>you the software application as well. But would you rather

0:22:01.640 --> 0:22:04.280
<v Speaker 1>be a service now that just has the software margins

0:22:04.440 --> 0:22:07.080
<v Speaker 1>rather than having to do the underlying investment. What's been

0:22:07.080 --> 0:22:09.200
<v Speaker 1>so interesting has been that shift as well from investment

0:22:09.520 --> 0:22:11.440
<v Speaker 1>coming ultimately from private sources.

0:22:11.520 --> 0:22:14.080
<v Speaker 6>What we've seen with the announcement.

0:22:13.600 --> 0:22:16.760
<v Speaker 1>Of AI infrastructure money coming to the US is high

0:22:16.800 --> 0:22:20.240
<v Speaker 1>soft bank Oh thanks Ale, and the chips at like

0:22:20.240 --> 0:22:22.640
<v Speaker 1>nowhere to be seen for the last few weeks of late.

0:22:23.080 --> 0:22:25.879
<v Speaker 5>Now what happens to projects targeate, I mean the whole

0:22:26.000 --> 0:22:30.240
<v Speaker 5>timing of it, Meta raising their CAPEX projects target announcement

0:22:30.640 --> 0:22:32.679
<v Speaker 5>and then deep Sea coming out. Just think of the

0:22:32.720 --> 0:22:36.480
<v Speaker 5>sequence of events and they're not in sync with each other.

0:22:36.640 --> 0:22:39.760
<v Speaker 5>So that's where you know, if you're trying to follow

0:22:39.800 --> 0:22:42.320
<v Speaker 5>the big trend, it's not very clear what the big

0:22:42.320 --> 0:22:45.680
<v Speaker 5>trend is right now in terms of scaling versus you know,

0:22:45.800 --> 0:22:49.600
<v Speaker 5>how do you go about data center investments medium to

0:22:49.640 --> 0:22:50.240
<v Speaker 5>long term?

0:22:50.280 --> 0:22:54.560
<v Speaker 1>And do you buy the inference argument though that was

0:22:54.600 --> 0:22:56.920
<v Speaker 1>the argument of videos. You're still going to need all

0:22:56.920 --> 0:22:59.920
<v Speaker 1>of our very expensive GPUs for inference, and we're still

0:23:00.320 --> 0:23:04.480
<v Speaker 1>all ubiquitously using gender to AI more and more and more. Well,

0:23:04.560 --> 0:23:07.080
<v Speaker 1>that's when the Jevins paradox comes in that Satia wants

0:23:07.080 --> 0:23:09.560
<v Speaker 1>to learn to you more than the data centers with cloud.

0:23:09.400 --> 0:23:13.119
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, more than that. I think compute inherently is fungible.

0:23:13.400 --> 0:23:16.920
<v Speaker 5>So if I'm using you know, certain chips for training

0:23:16.960 --> 0:23:19.800
<v Speaker 5>now and I don't need to build a you know,

0:23:19.920 --> 0:23:23.520
<v Speaker 5>million chip cluster, then I can use some of that

0:23:23.600 --> 0:23:27.399
<v Speaker 5>compute for inferencing because it's the same GPU. So from

0:23:27.440 --> 0:23:30.679
<v Speaker 5>that perspective, I do buy that argument that if AI

0:23:30.880 --> 0:23:34.240
<v Speaker 5>is more pervasive and accessible, then I'll use more of

0:23:34.280 --> 0:23:37.679
<v Speaker 5>that chip capacity for inferencing because everyone realizes there is

0:23:37.880 --> 0:23:40.760
<v Speaker 5>ROI and you know, deploying the generator of AI.

0:23:40.880 --> 0:23:42.960
<v Speaker 3>I mean, this is the technological cycle at work, right,

0:23:43.000 --> 0:23:44.720
<v Speaker 3>I mean, stuff comes out of the gate initially, it

0:23:44.760 --> 0:23:47.160
<v Speaker 3>catches all of our tension. We've been obsessed with really

0:23:47.240 --> 0:23:49.600
<v Speaker 3>kind of a very few companies over the last couple

0:23:49.640 --> 0:23:51.560
<v Speaker 3>of years here. We are more than two years in

0:23:51.640 --> 0:23:55.040
<v Speaker 3>on this right, it makes sense, you guys, Caroline Mande,

0:23:55.160 --> 0:23:57.840
<v Speaker 3>that we're going to start seeing other companies come to

0:23:57.880 --> 0:23:58.400
<v Speaker 3>the forefront.

0:23:58.440 --> 0:24:00.439
<v Speaker 4>There's going to be some competition. The model might be

0:24:01.040 --> 0:24:02.200
<v Speaker 4>tweaked a little bit here.

0:24:02.280 --> 0:24:05.880
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I mean, and look the commoditization. I do think

0:24:05.960 --> 0:24:10.119
<v Speaker 5>you know the modes around, Oh, you've used this LLLM

0:24:10.160 --> 0:24:13.680
<v Speaker 5>and you can never get out of that. It's so sticky.

0:24:14.280 --> 0:24:16.680
<v Speaker 5>I think that is going away because now you can

0:24:16.840 --> 0:24:20.760
<v Speaker 5>swap you know, API from one LLLM to another, and

0:24:20.840 --> 0:24:24.480
<v Speaker 5>that should be doable. And companies will arbitrage, you know,

0:24:24.600 --> 0:24:28.400
<v Speaker 5>against which is the cheapest model provider because it impacts

0:24:28.400 --> 0:24:30.600
<v Speaker 5>your margins. I mean, look at the scale of some

0:24:30.640 --> 0:24:34.320
<v Speaker 5>of these LM deployments. We're talking about billion users, so

0:24:34.440 --> 0:24:38.200
<v Speaker 5>billion users are using a generative AI query. That's all

0:24:38.280 --> 0:24:40.840
<v Speaker 5>API revenue that these companies are getting. And if I'm

0:24:40.840 --> 0:24:44.080
<v Speaker 5>paying the highest price per API, that's going to hurt

0:24:44.080 --> 0:24:45.960
<v Speaker 5>my margins. So I'm going to go with the cheapest

0:24:45.960 --> 0:24:46.960
<v Speaker 5>option that's out there.

0:24:47.400 --> 0:24:49.480
<v Speaker 3>I mean, Caroline, when you think about like the conversations

0:24:49.480 --> 0:24:51.680
<v Speaker 3>you have over and over, what changed so dramatically this week?

0:24:51.840 --> 0:24:53.680
<v Speaker 3>Is it just kind of a rethink of these long

0:24:54.000 --> 0:24:55.359
<v Speaker 3>held beliefs about AI.

0:24:55.280 --> 0:24:57.719
<v Speaker 1>And I think for lots of people it was felt

0:24:57.760 --> 0:25:01.640
<v Speaker 1>that people acted before or they really knew, so it's

0:25:01.800 --> 0:25:02.359
<v Speaker 1>just sell.

0:25:02.720 --> 0:25:03.840
<v Speaker 6>I've seen this headline.

0:25:03.920 --> 0:25:06.280
<v Speaker 1>I'm worried about the valuations of these companies anyway, and

0:25:06.359 --> 0:25:08.919
<v Speaker 1>video was trading at forty one times. We see generally

0:25:08.960 --> 0:25:12.479
<v Speaker 1>everyone elevated versus the Nasdaq get out then ask our questions.

0:25:12.600 --> 0:25:14.640
<v Speaker 1>People started to come back to software after they asked

0:25:14.680 --> 0:25:16.919
<v Speaker 1>those questions, and I thought, oh, maybe this could actually

0:25:17.200 --> 0:25:19.840
<v Speaker 1>change the game and make things even more margin rich

0:25:19.920 --> 0:25:22.320
<v Speaker 1>for these types of companies. But I think the question

0:25:22.440 --> 0:25:25.040
<v Speaker 1>is still out of ultimately, what access did they have

0:25:25.119 --> 0:25:28.879
<v Speaker 1>to end? In video, GPUs were ultimately they say that

0:25:28.880 --> 0:25:32.000
<v Speaker 1>they got them totally legitimately, and in video would say

0:25:32.000 --> 0:25:35.560
<v Speaker 1>the same. How much it is ultimately spark inferences the

0:25:35.640 --> 0:25:38.200
<v Speaker 1>use and what does it mean in terms of ultimate

0:25:38.240 --> 0:25:40.840
<v Speaker 1>and infrastructure investment. I think people for the short term,

0:25:40.880 --> 0:25:43.160
<v Speaker 1>most analysts I speak to say, we're misticking by it,

0:25:43.280 --> 0:25:44.760
<v Speaker 1>like we're not going to see a cap it's pulled

0:25:44.800 --> 0:25:45.760
<v Speaker 1>back anytime soon.

0:25:46.320 --> 0:25:48.160
<v Speaker 2>Interesting stuff. We're gonna have to wait also to hear

0:25:48.240 --> 0:25:51.639
<v Speaker 2>what David Sachs the ais are for the Trump administration

0:25:51.720 --> 0:25:52.680
<v Speaker 2>has to say, all.

0:25:52.640 --> 0:25:53.840
<v Speaker 4>Right, I think we're going to let you go.

0:25:54.000 --> 0:25:56.040
<v Speaker 3>I'm really fearful to do that in both of you,

0:25:56.160 --> 0:25:57.919
<v Speaker 3>because I know the minute you get out of your

0:25:58.000 --> 0:26:01.840
<v Speaker 3>chair and walk it out in our studio. All right,

0:26:01.840 --> 0:26:03.680
<v Speaker 3>But Mandy, we're going to let you go, and hopefully

0:26:03.720 --> 0:26:05.480
<v Speaker 3>we'll maybe even bring you back a little bit later on.

0:26:05.520 --> 0:26:09.240
<v Speaker 3>Mandy Seeing, of course, a key member of our technology

0:26:09.280 --> 0:26:11.680
<v Speaker 3>team at our Bloomberg Intelligence unit we.

0:26:11.680 --> 0:26:14.040
<v Speaker 4>Are waiting Meta results.

0:26:14.600 --> 0:26:16.399
<v Speaker 3>Also a key member of our technology team here at

0:26:16.400 --> 0:26:18.720
<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg News, of course, Caroline High So lucky for us,

0:26:18.960 --> 0:26:20.639
<v Speaker 3>she's going to stick around. One of the co hosts

0:26:20.920 --> 0:26:23.119
<v Speaker 3>of Bloomberg Technology. We do have another guest so that

0:26:23.119 --> 0:26:25.679
<v Speaker 3>we want to bring into the conversation who really follows

0:26:25.680 --> 0:26:27.720
<v Speaker 3>the tech sector very closely and invests in it.

0:26:27.920 --> 0:26:30.000
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I want to bring in James Chalkmack. He's technology

0:26:30.000 --> 0:26:33.920
<v Speaker 2>analyst at Clockwise Capital. Clockwise Capital is the Core Equity

0:26:33.960 --> 0:26:37.320
<v Speaker 2>and Innovation ETF. The ticker is time. Biggest holdings are

0:26:37.320 --> 0:26:41.000
<v Speaker 2>the companies we're talking about Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple,

0:26:41.200 --> 0:26:44.480
<v Speaker 2>along with smaller companies including Palanteer, Spotify, and Netflix. The

0:26:44.520 --> 0:26:47.520
<v Speaker 2>ETF up about thirty five percent over the last year,

0:26:47.560 --> 0:26:49.879
<v Speaker 2>four percent year to date. So let's go through it

0:26:50.080 --> 0:26:53.240
<v Speaker 2>and bring in James. He joins us from Miami this afternoon. James,

0:26:53.320 --> 0:26:55.360
<v Speaker 2>good to have you as always with us. I want

0:26:55.359 --> 0:26:58.480
<v Speaker 2>to start with your impression of Microsoft shares following after

0:26:58.520 --> 0:27:01.280
<v Speaker 2>reporting slow in growth in the cloud unit. What sticks

0:27:01.320 --> 0:27:01.760
<v Speaker 2>out to you?

0:27:03.480 --> 0:27:05.560
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, the big thing there with Microsoft is that the

0:27:05.640 --> 0:27:07.800
<v Speaker 7>bogie was a couple of points higher than where they

0:27:07.840 --> 0:27:11.359
<v Speaker 7>reported on Azure. The street was looking for around thirty

0:27:11.359 --> 0:27:13.800
<v Speaker 7>three thirty four percent growth to keep the momentum in

0:27:13.800 --> 0:27:16.680
<v Speaker 7>the stock going. They posted around thirty one thirty two,

0:27:17.359 --> 0:27:19.480
<v Speaker 7>so it was a couple of points light. But the

0:27:19.520 --> 0:27:22.600
<v Speaker 7>main thing is that the undercurrent the trends that you're

0:27:22.600 --> 0:27:25.879
<v Speaker 7>seeing in productivity and the shift to the cloud and

0:27:25.920 --> 0:27:30.240
<v Speaker 7>AI offerings continues. You know, you're still talking about three

0:27:30.280 --> 0:27:33.639
<v Speaker 7>handle on that growth rate. So we'll see what they

0:27:33.680 --> 0:27:36.000
<v Speaker 7>say on the call. As far as Capex is concerned,

0:27:36.040 --> 0:27:37.960
<v Speaker 7>we do think that's going to start to come down

0:27:37.960 --> 0:27:42.040
<v Speaker 7>here as we look into twenty twenty five. So I

0:27:42.119 --> 0:27:44.159
<v Speaker 7>think I think it's gonna be all right. You know,

0:27:44.200 --> 0:27:47.080
<v Speaker 7>we hold a position in it. We are underweight relative

0:27:47.080 --> 0:27:50.560
<v Speaker 7>to the index for this very reason because though the

0:27:50.720 --> 0:27:54.160
<v Speaker 7>run up, but overall, I think everything's okay with Microsoft.

0:27:54.240 --> 0:27:56.080
<v Speaker 1>I'm going to jump in because we are getting Amy

0:27:56.080 --> 0:27:58.760
<v Speaker 1>Hood the CFO giving an interview with our own Bloomberg

0:27:58.800 --> 0:28:00.639
<v Speaker 1>reporters saying that they.

0:28:00.240 --> 0:28:02.360
<v Speaker 6>Constrained in cloud capacity.

0:28:02.480 --> 0:28:05.359
<v Speaker 1>Remember we got that sort of shop move that open

0:28:05.400 --> 0:28:08.040
<v Speaker 1>ai is going to be building out AI infrastructure with Oracle.

0:28:08.080 --> 0:28:09.720
<v Speaker 1>Of course, they signed a deal with Oracle in the

0:28:09.760 --> 0:28:13.120
<v Speaker 1>summer because Microsoft just can't build them quickly enough. Talking

0:28:13.160 --> 0:28:16.280
<v Speaker 1>about the bookings rising sixty seven percent partly due to

0:28:16.320 --> 0:28:19.439
<v Speaker 1>the open Ai commitments and commercial bookings were better than

0:28:19.440 --> 0:28:21.480
<v Speaker 1>they forecast, they're still trying to talk about how much

0:28:21.680 --> 0:28:24.640
<v Speaker 1>more percentage point add ai is giving.

0:28:24.400 --> 0:28:26.520
<v Speaker 6>Them to as you're more broadly.

0:28:26.280 --> 0:28:29.639
<v Speaker 3>All right, so James so remains constrained in cloud capacity

0:28:29.720 --> 0:28:31.320
<v Speaker 3>from the Microsoft CEO.

0:28:31.520 --> 0:28:32.359
<v Speaker 4>What's your read on that?

0:28:34.480 --> 0:28:36.280
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, I mean they're going to have to keep building.

0:28:36.560 --> 0:28:40.080
<v Speaker 7>I'm not suggesting that capex needs to stop. It's more

0:28:40.240 --> 0:28:42.880
<v Speaker 7>just what is the growth rate of that spent. You know,

0:28:42.920 --> 0:28:45.960
<v Speaker 7>you saw a massive investment tiers in twenty twenty three,

0:28:46.080 --> 0:28:49.920
<v Speaker 7>twenty twenty four, and we think that that sprend will

0:28:49.960 --> 0:28:51.800
<v Speaker 7>be growing at a slower clip.

0:28:52.160 --> 0:28:55.040
<v Speaker 2>Do you change in turn will help. Sorry, James, do

0:28:55.400 --> 0:28:58.200
<v Speaker 2>you change your your holdings? Do you sell Microsoft?

0:29:00.040 --> 0:29:04.400
<v Speaker 7>Actually trimmed Microsoft into the quarter today. You know, we're

0:29:04.440 --> 0:29:06.800
<v Speaker 7>now at three percent weight. It's around eight percent in

0:29:06.840 --> 0:29:11.000
<v Speaker 7>the in the NAVASDAK, so we are underweight there. But

0:29:11.440 --> 0:29:13.560
<v Speaker 7>I would say, you know, we.

0:29:13.600 --> 0:29:14.480
<v Speaker 2>Still want to hold it.

0:29:14.520 --> 0:29:16.240
<v Speaker 7>You know, you still want to be there. The company

0:29:16.320 --> 0:29:19.240
<v Speaker 7>is incredibly important, but at the same time, we think

0:29:19.240 --> 0:29:22.600
<v Speaker 7>that there's better opportunity elsewhere with companies that offer and

0:29:22.640 --> 0:29:24.080
<v Speaker 7>stocks that offer better convexity.

0:29:24.160 --> 0:29:25.920
<v Speaker 2>Okay, so where does that money go? You trimmed your

0:29:25.920 --> 0:29:28.080
<v Speaker 2>holding in Microsoft, where are you spending it? What are

0:29:28.080 --> 0:29:29.480
<v Speaker 2>you buying?

0:29:30.400 --> 0:29:33.120
<v Speaker 7>So we're looking at a lot of software names right now.

0:29:33.240 --> 0:29:35.800
<v Speaker 7>You know, with the disruption in the market that was

0:29:35.840 --> 0:29:37.600
<v Speaker 7>caused by deep Seek, I don't think you can take

0:29:37.640 --> 0:29:40.800
<v Speaker 7>that lightly. I think that you have to re examine

0:29:41.280 --> 0:29:45.560
<v Speaker 7>kind of all of your assumptions top down. You know,

0:29:45.680 --> 0:29:48.760
<v Speaker 7>from that, we we did cut Nividia before the market

0:29:48.800 --> 0:29:52.480
<v Speaker 7>opened on Monday and cut that exposure, and we've been

0:29:52.560 --> 0:29:56.720
<v Speaker 7>rotating to software names. We picked up Data Dog for example.

0:29:57.840 --> 0:30:00.480
<v Speaker 7>You know, we think that race will continue to uh

0:30:00.760 --> 0:30:01.440
<v Speaker 7>trend lower.

0:30:02.640 --> 0:30:02.800
<v Speaker 3>Uh.

0:30:02.920 --> 0:30:05.640
<v Speaker 7>You know this year obviously two estimates baked in, but

0:30:05.760 --> 0:30:08.160
<v Speaker 7>I think that that trend will help a company like

0:30:08.560 --> 0:30:12.360
<v Speaker 7>an I'll start, you know, we continue to like Spotify.

0:30:13.080 --> 0:30:16.000
<v Speaker 7>We actually grossed up our metaposition heading into the quarter,

0:30:17.080 --> 0:30:18.680
<v Speaker 7>so we'll see how that plays out. I don't know

0:30:18.680 --> 0:30:19.880
<v Speaker 7>if the numbers are out yet.

0:30:20.080 --> 0:30:22.240
<v Speaker 4>No, we're still we're still awaiting meta.

0:30:22.280 --> 0:30:25.520
<v Speaker 3>I want to ask you something though, from our BI team,

0:30:25.560 --> 0:30:29.000
<v Speaker 3>our Ana Agrana writing about Microsoft and says Microsoft's close

0:30:29.040 --> 0:30:32.520
<v Speaker 3>relationship with open AI makes it better position than most

0:30:32.560 --> 0:30:36.360
<v Speaker 3>of its software arrivals to capitalize that increased generative AI spending.

0:30:37.320 --> 0:30:38.040
<v Speaker 4>You agree with that.

0:30:38.200 --> 0:30:39.680
<v Speaker 3>I mean they're you know, they know a little bit

0:30:40.080 --> 0:30:41.880
<v Speaker 3>about software certainly Microsoft.

0:30:42.080 --> 0:30:45.760
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, I'm not sure about the health of that relationship.

0:30:45.840 --> 0:30:46.640
<v Speaker 7>To be honest with you.

0:30:47.280 --> 0:30:48.240
<v Speaker 2>Why so.

0:30:50.280 --> 0:30:53.920
<v Speaker 7>Well, I think that you know, deep seek certainly changes

0:30:53.920 --> 0:30:56.280
<v Speaker 7>the game a little bit. I think that they'll increasingly

0:30:56.320 --> 0:31:01.360
<v Speaker 7>have less reliance on on open AI and and as

0:31:01.400 --> 0:31:03.600
<v Speaker 7>their costs come down, they'll continue to be able to

0:31:04.360 --> 0:31:08.160
<v Speaker 7>you know, drive the inference and all the AI tools

0:31:08.200 --> 0:31:14.040
<v Speaker 7>for their customers. So I'm not sure exactly how healthy

0:31:14.080 --> 0:31:17.120
<v Speaker 7>that relationship is or how it will lay out. But

0:31:17.240 --> 0:31:20.280
<v Speaker 7>at the end of the day, you know, Microsoft continues

0:31:20.320 --> 0:31:24.160
<v Speaker 7>to be well positioned exsllically, I would say following Deep Seek,

0:31:24.160 --> 0:31:29.560
<v Speaker 7>we came away in incrementally positive on meta on Microsoft

0:31:30.360 --> 0:31:34.520
<v Speaker 7>and Amazon. So those are the three that we like

0:31:34.720 --> 0:31:38.000
<v Speaker 7>following that news, and then we became incrementally negative on Nividia.

0:31:38.040 --> 0:31:39.000
<v Speaker 4>All right, hang on for a second.

0:31:39.000 --> 0:31:41.320
<v Speaker 3>We're talking with James CHOCKMOG partner and tech analyst Everrett

0:31:41.360 --> 0:31:44.480
<v Speaker 3>clockwise Capital Caroline Hyde, co host of Bloomberg Technology, also

0:31:44.480 --> 0:31:47.160
<v Speaker 3>in studio with us and just walking in our own

0:31:47.000 --> 0:31:49.719
<v Speaker 3>anarag Rana. He is with our technology team with our

0:31:49.720 --> 0:31:54.360
<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg Intelligence unit. He's a senior industry analyst writing. I

0:31:54.400 --> 0:31:57.480
<v Speaker 3>am reading from the research he just put out on Microsoft.

0:31:58.120 --> 0:32:00.680
<v Speaker 3>Microsoft now on AROG just down that eight tons of

0:32:00.680 --> 0:32:02.760
<v Speaker 3>a percent, so it's definitely come off the lows that

0:32:02.800 --> 0:32:04.360
<v Speaker 3>we saw earlier in the aftermarket.

0:32:04.440 --> 0:32:06.440
<v Speaker 4>So far tell us what we need to know.

0:32:06.960 --> 0:32:09.240
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, it's all the guidance on the conference call. We

0:32:09.280 --> 0:32:12.239
<v Speaker 8>want to hear that that AZ your growth is going

0:32:12.280 --> 0:32:14.800
<v Speaker 8>to pick up over the next twelve months. And I

0:32:14.800 --> 0:32:17.520
<v Speaker 8>think that's really the biggest thing that we see now,

0:32:17.520 --> 0:32:20.400
<v Speaker 8>that's assuming all the investments they have made in the

0:32:20.920 --> 0:32:23.960
<v Speaker 8>data center side. Is picking up because I just saw

0:32:23.960 --> 0:32:26.280
<v Speaker 8>the news go by what the CFO is saying that

0:32:26.320 --> 0:32:30.040
<v Speaker 8>they're still supply constrained. Now, the supply constraint doesn't mean

0:32:30.080 --> 0:32:32.920
<v Speaker 8>it had an impact on the current quarter growth, which is,

0:32:33.160 --> 0:32:35.320
<v Speaker 8>you know, which was below the thirty one thirty two

0:32:35.360 --> 0:32:37.800
<v Speaker 8>that they gave, or will it impact in the next quarter.

0:32:37.840 --> 0:32:39.680
<v Speaker 8>I think that's the single biggest question right now.

0:32:39.760 --> 0:32:43.280
<v Speaker 2>So is it fair to say this is totally supply side.

0:32:43.000 --> 0:32:46.560
<v Speaker 1>And japin because we do have meta finalite please, And

0:32:46.600 --> 0:32:49.480
<v Speaker 1>the fourth quarter revenue is beating expectations. Forty eight point

0:32:49.520 --> 0:32:52.440
<v Speaker 1>three to nine billion is coming for fourth quarter, it

0:32:52.480 --> 0:32:54.760
<v Speaker 1>was expected to be forty six point nine to eight billion,

0:32:54.760 --> 0:32:56.400
<v Speaker 1>and they're pushing us forward to a guide of the

0:32:56.400 --> 0:32:58.120
<v Speaker 1>first quarter to be thirty nine and a half to

0:32:58.160 --> 0:33:01.800
<v Speaker 1>forty one point eight billion. That slightly shy of the

0:33:01.840 --> 0:33:05.080
<v Speaker 1>midpoint where the expectations were for forty one point six billion.

0:33:05.160 --> 0:33:06.600
<v Speaker 6>So forecast a little bit light.

0:33:06.920 --> 0:33:09.680
<v Speaker 1>Fourth quarter at beats on Family of App revenue doing well.

0:33:09.800 --> 0:33:13.920
<v Speaker 1>They're seeing Reality Labs operating loss of almost five billion,

0:33:13.960 --> 0:33:16.080
<v Speaker 1>but the estimate was free for more than that, so

0:33:16.120 --> 0:33:18.480
<v Speaker 1>I think you are seeing perhaps a slightly shy forecast,

0:33:18.480 --> 0:33:20.880
<v Speaker 1>but they're seeing first quarter revenue of thirty nine and

0:33:20.920 --> 0:33:22.680
<v Speaker 1>a half to forty one point eight billion, and the

0:33:22.720 --> 0:33:24.760
<v Speaker 1>market wanted forty one point seven billion.

0:33:24.800 --> 0:33:25.680
<v Speaker 4>Stack bouncing around.

0:33:25.720 --> 0:33:27.840
<v Speaker 3>It was down five percent, it's now down about three

0:33:27.880 --> 0:33:29.960
<v Speaker 3>point eight percent. Now it's down about five percent. It

0:33:30.000 --> 0:33:33.520
<v Speaker 3>is bouncing around. Also some commentary in terms of the capex.

0:33:33.560 --> 0:33:36.800
<v Speaker 3>We anticipate our full year twenty twenty five capital expenditures

0:33:36.800 --> 0:33:39.120
<v Speaker 3>will be in the range of sixty to sixty five

0:33:39.160 --> 0:33:42.000
<v Speaker 3>billion dollars, So a little bit more about that, which

0:33:42.000 --> 0:33:43.560
<v Speaker 3>we just got news last week.

0:33:43.680 --> 0:33:45.800
<v Speaker 2>The company also says we're not providing a full year

0:33:45.800 --> 0:33:49.040
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty five revenue outlook. Is that a surprise to you, Caroline.

0:33:49.120 --> 0:33:51.360
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, Usually they are able to give clarity, And it's

0:33:51.400 --> 0:33:54.480
<v Speaker 1>interesting that they're giving so much clarity on their capital expenditure,

0:33:54.760 --> 0:33:58.120
<v Speaker 1>perhaps not clarity on forward revenue at the moment. Is

0:33:58.160 --> 0:33:59.640
<v Speaker 1>that because they think it's just going to go through

0:33:59.680 --> 0:34:02.680
<v Speaker 1>the room. Is that because they do feel that they

0:34:02.720 --> 0:34:06.520
<v Speaker 1>can't give as much forward looking guidance at the moment.

0:34:06.960 --> 0:34:08.200
<v Speaker 6>But whether it's an.

0:34:08.160 --> 0:34:11.120
<v Speaker 1>FX perspective, cost and expenses, they're still dictating. But I'm

0:34:11.200 --> 0:34:13.920
<v Speaker 1>just scrolling through the CFO and they expect first call

0:34:13.960 --> 0:34:17.040
<v Speaker 1>to twenty five total revenue to be in that range,

0:34:17.120 --> 0:34:20.360
<v Speaker 1>which reflects eight to fifteen percent year over year growth

0:34:20.600 --> 0:34:23.480
<v Speaker 1>or eleven to eighteen percent on a constant currency basis.

0:34:23.480 --> 0:34:25.759
<v Speaker 1>But we are not providing fully a twenty twenty five

0:34:25.840 --> 0:34:28.359
<v Speaker 1>revenue outlook. We expect the investments we are making in

0:34:28.400 --> 0:34:31.080
<v Speaker 1>our core business this year will give us an opportunity

0:34:31.120 --> 0:34:34.640
<v Speaker 1>to continue delivering strong revenue growth through twenty twenty five.

0:34:34.600 --> 0:34:37.520
<v Speaker 3>Also saying the regulatory landscape in the European Union the

0:34:37.600 --> 0:34:39.960
<v Speaker 3>United States could impact business. We do see the stock

0:34:40.320 --> 0:34:43.160
<v Speaker 3>now just down about one percent. Again, the key that

0:34:43.200 --> 0:34:45.680
<v Speaker 3>everybody seems to be focusing on is that first quarter

0:34:45.680 --> 0:34:49.040
<v Speaker 3>sales forecast trailing at the midpoint, also saying fiscal year

0:34:49.080 --> 0:34:53.120
<v Speaker 3>depreciation expends about two point nine billion dollars less than before,

0:34:53.360 --> 0:34:55.719
<v Speaker 3>again bouncing around big time in the aftermark.

0:34:55.840 --> 0:34:57.640
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I want to draw your attention to what's going

0:34:57.680 --> 0:35:01.000
<v Speaker 2>on with Reality Labs, the company, saying that revenue coming

0:35:01.040 --> 0:35:03.160
<v Speaker 2>in at one point oh eight billion dollars, shy of

0:35:03.239 --> 0:35:06.000
<v Speaker 2>estimates of one point one to one billion dollars. I

0:35:06.040 --> 0:35:07.719
<v Speaker 2>don't want to say there was a whisper number ahead

0:35:07.719 --> 0:35:11.080
<v Speaker 2>of this Caroline, but folks were bullish on Reality Labs

0:35:11.120 --> 0:35:13.040
<v Speaker 2>going into this. There was that report from Insider that

0:35:13.080 --> 0:35:15.960
<v Speaker 2>came out earlier this week that talked about growth at

0:35:15.960 --> 0:35:18.439
<v Speaker 2>growth in that unit. How are you, again, a very

0:35:18.480 --> 0:35:21.640
<v Speaker 2>small portion but a very important part of the company,

0:35:21.880 --> 0:35:23.120
<v Speaker 2>How are you looking into that number?

0:35:23.560 --> 0:35:27.280
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I do think that overall the losses are big.

0:35:28.160 --> 0:35:29.440
<v Speaker 2>So you think the losses should be more of a

0:35:29.440 --> 0:35:30.480
<v Speaker 2>focus than the revenue.

0:35:30.680 --> 0:35:34.160
<v Speaker 1>Well, I think revenue one point zero eight is slightly

0:35:34.239 --> 0:35:36.759
<v Speaker 1>less than anticipated, but at least their operating loss is

0:35:36.760 --> 0:35:39.120
<v Speaker 1>slightly less than expected. But I think there's going to

0:35:39.120 --> 0:35:41.960
<v Speaker 1>be a lot of digestion of restructuring that's currently going

0:35:42.000 --> 0:35:43.760
<v Speaker 1>on in that business, and the fact that they're shifting

0:35:44.000 --> 0:35:46.160
<v Speaker 1>over to the overall unit COO and they're putting up

0:35:46.200 --> 0:35:49.520
<v Speaker 1>some operational changes at play. But how much is Mark

0:35:49.680 --> 0:35:52.000
<v Speaker 1>Zuckerberg going to speak to his commitment to this part

0:35:52.040 --> 0:35:54.000
<v Speaker 1>of the business, how much he wants to invest in

0:35:54.040 --> 0:35:57.279
<v Speaker 1>Reality Labs, how much of that sixty five billion dollar

0:35:57.400 --> 0:36:00.319
<v Speaker 1>up to capex in AI is ultimately going to today

0:36:00.400 --> 0:36:01.359
<v Speaker 1>it's a products.

0:36:01.000 --> 0:36:03.480
<v Speaker 4>All right, We're going to keep watching and reporting on Meta.

0:36:03.520 --> 0:36:06.960
<v Speaker 3>As we mentioned, stock is bopping around here in the aftermarkets,

0:36:07.680 --> 0:36:10.600
<v Speaker 3>really a focus on the outlook. But it's right now

0:36:10.640 --> 0:36:13.000
<v Speaker 3>we're looking at just a slight move to the upside

0:36:13.040 --> 0:36:14.920
<v Speaker 3>of about one quarter one percent. I want to go

0:36:15.000 --> 0:36:17.799
<v Speaker 3>back to Microsoft for just a moment because we have

0:36:17.800 --> 0:36:20.319
<v Speaker 3>Anna rag Rana in here, another big one after the

0:36:20.360 --> 0:36:22.560
<v Speaker 3>close which has been bouncing around to you, it's now

0:36:22.560 --> 0:36:23.560
<v Speaker 3>only down about eight.

0:36:23.400 --> 0:36:24.600
<v Speaker 4>Tens of one percent.

0:36:24.880 --> 0:36:28.080
<v Speaker 3>The Bloomberg audience thinking about these earnings, the crazy week

0:36:28.120 --> 0:36:30.439
<v Speaker 3>that's been in the tech community around AI.

0:36:31.480 --> 0:36:33.319
<v Speaker 4>What to be top of mind was top of mind

0:36:33.320 --> 0:36:33.640
<v Speaker 4>for you?

0:36:34.200 --> 0:36:36.960
<v Speaker 8>I think the biggest question is, you know, they have

0:36:37.000 --> 0:36:40.040
<v Speaker 8>a commercial booking number that just you know, was absolutely

0:36:40.080 --> 0:36:44.000
<v Speaker 8>spectacular and it was driven by Azure commitments and the

0:36:44.040 --> 0:36:46.320
<v Speaker 8>opening eye work that they are getting. But the question

0:36:46.440 --> 0:36:48.359
<v Speaker 8>is do you can you fulfill that demand or you're

0:36:48.360 --> 0:36:50.640
<v Speaker 8>going to go to third party providers to take care

0:36:50.680 --> 0:36:53.080
<v Speaker 8>of it? And that's really what it is. I mean, frankly,

0:36:53.160 --> 0:36:56.200
<v Speaker 8>at this point, more color in that, you know, the

0:36:56.200 --> 0:36:59.680
<v Speaker 8>big commercial booking number would be helpful. And also about

0:36:59.760 --> 0:37:03.440
<v Speaker 8>what what does Microsoft CEO think about all the things

0:37:03.440 --> 0:37:06.600
<v Speaker 8>that are happening with deep seek, because he did tweet

0:37:06.680 --> 0:37:09.120
<v Speaker 8>something very interesting that you know, if the costco goes down,

0:37:09.160 --> 0:37:12.000
<v Speaker 8>the adoption rate improves, which is good. But at the

0:37:12.040 --> 0:37:15.600
<v Speaker 8>same time, you know he has a very strong partnership

0:37:15.600 --> 0:37:18.719
<v Speaker 8>with Opening Eye right another, So there's a lot. I

0:37:18.760 --> 0:37:23.000
<v Speaker 8>think we will learn about the tech landscape in general

0:37:23.040 --> 0:37:26.920
<v Speaker 8>from him, not just about Microsoft's clouds numbers. Now, frankly speaking,

0:37:27.160 --> 0:37:29.440
<v Speaker 8>let's say, for the sake of argument, that they do

0:37:29.560 --> 0:37:32.640
<v Speaker 8>misguidance for three Q. I think people will still give

0:37:32.680 --> 0:37:34.560
<v Speaker 8>them a pass over the next several days. May not

0:37:34.560 --> 0:37:37.120
<v Speaker 8>give them a pass tomorrow because the bookings number is

0:37:37.160 --> 0:37:37.640
<v Speaker 8>so strong.

0:37:37.920 --> 0:37:40.960
<v Speaker 3>Another headline of Microsoft to add jobs and infrastructure, jen

0:37:41.000 --> 0:37:42.320
<v Speaker 3>Ai and reality labs.

0:37:42.360 --> 0:37:43.480
<v Speaker 2>So that's matter right.

0:37:43.560 --> 0:37:47.719
<v Speaker 3>Oh did I say, oh Microsoft, they must have made

0:37:47.719 --> 0:37:48.200
<v Speaker 3>a mistake.

0:37:48.400 --> 0:37:49.920
<v Speaker 4>Okay, so there is a headline.

0:37:50.040 --> 0:37:53.319
<v Speaker 2>We will we are going to keep covering that this

0:37:53.400 --> 0:37:56.480
<v Speaker 2>is coming fast and furious. I do want to do

0:37:56.560 --> 0:37:58.759
<v Speaker 2>a big thank you to Anna rog Rana for joining us.

0:37:58.880 --> 0:38:01.239
<v Speaker 2>He is going to go off and listen to more

0:38:01.280 --> 0:38:03.879
<v Speaker 2>of the call and as well as have more notes

0:38:03.880 --> 0:38:06.600
<v Speaker 2>out for Bloomberg Intelligence. I'm putting pressure on you, unfortunately,

0:38:06.640 --> 0:38:09.320
<v Speaker 2>I'm sorry. Thank you for stopping by usually in Chicago

0:38:09.560 --> 0:38:10.960
<v Speaker 2>joining us here. I do want to get back to

0:38:11.000 --> 0:38:13.360
<v Speaker 2>James Chockmack he's technology correction.

0:38:13.040 --> 0:38:14.960
<v Speaker 4>META, which makes sense because of Reality Lab.

0:38:14.880 --> 0:38:18.400
<v Speaker 2>Technology analyst at Clockwise Capital. We gave you a little break, James,

0:38:18.400 --> 0:38:21.839
<v Speaker 2>to jump in and look at those META numbers as

0:38:21.840 --> 0:38:25.240
<v Speaker 2>they were breaking just past four thirty five. What sticks

0:38:25.239 --> 0:38:25.640
<v Speaker 2>out to you?

0:38:27.280 --> 0:38:28.799
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, I mean the big thing is the first quarter

0:38:28.920 --> 0:38:31.560
<v Speaker 7>guide coming in a touch light. But the fourth quarter

0:38:31.600 --> 0:38:35.839
<v Speaker 7>itself was solid pretty much across the board. So we'll

0:38:35.840 --> 0:38:39.520
<v Speaker 7>have to decipher what exactly is going on in the

0:38:39.560 --> 0:38:44.400
<v Speaker 7>first quarter guide on the call. But as it stands,

0:38:44.440 --> 0:38:46.640
<v Speaker 7>if you look at four Q in a vacuum, you know,

0:38:46.680 --> 0:38:50.520
<v Speaker 7>it seems like it's all systems go. But I just

0:38:50.520 --> 0:38:51.239
<v Speaker 7>got to drill down.

0:38:51.120 --> 0:38:53.040
<v Speaker 4>A little bit more, all right, we want to get.

0:38:53.080 --> 0:38:55.200
<v Speaker 7>Why I think this stock is bouncing around so much.

0:38:55.320 --> 0:38:56.680
<v Speaker 7>Down five to three.

0:38:56.840 --> 0:38:57.759
<v Speaker 4>Everything's bouncing around.

0:38:57.840 --> 0:38:59.600
<v Speaker 3>Meta is now down about two tents of a verse.

0:38:59.640 --> 0:39:01.839
<v Speaker 3>That man keep saying, who follows metaphor us here at

0:39:01.840 --> 0:39:02.720
<v Speaker 3>our Bloomberg.

0:39:02.280 --> 0:39:03.800
<v Speaker 2>Intelligence giving them a workout today.

0:39:04.719 --> 0:39:07.359
<v Speaker 4>Get your steps in, buddy, get your steps in. What's

0:39:07.400 --> 0:39:08.840
<v Speaker 4>your reaction to the results?

0:39:08.960 --> 0:39:11.920
<v Speaker 5>Well, so one is obviously the guide for one Q

0:39:12.680 --> 0:39:16.000
<v Speaker 5>is lower than consensus. The big number that sticks out

0:39:16.040 --> 0:39:19.000
<v Speaker 5>to me is the total expense guide of one hundred

0:39:19.080 --> 0:39:22.760
<v Speaker 5>and fourteen two hundred and nineteen billion. That is almost

0:39:22.920 --> 0:39:27.439
<v Speaker 5>you know, eight billion higher than the consensus. So what

0:39:27.480 --> 0:39:30.759
<v Speaker 5>that tells you is the gross margins are going down

0:39:31.560 --> 0:39:35.880
<v Speaker 5>and plus the depreciation costs, the costs that they are

0:39:35.920 --> 0:39:39.279
<v Speaker 5>spending on data centers, they have to depreciate those servers, right,

0:39:39.719 --> 0:39:41.719
<v Speaker 5>that's going to eat into the margins. So we are

0:39:41.760 --> 0:39:45.360
<v Speaker 5>talking about at least a four to five percent margin

0:39:45.480 --> 0:39:50.040
<v Speaker 5>impact for twenty twenty five just from the data center costs,

0:39:50.120 --> 0:39:53.280
<v Speaker 5>the depreciation costs, and so clearly there is a gross

0:39:53.320 --> 0:39:59.360
<v Speaker 5>margin degradation happening here and the revenue growth is decelerating,

0:39:59.560 --> 0:40:01.800
<v Speaker 5>which is what we are seeing in one queue. The

0:40:01.880 --> 0:40:04.840
<v Speaker 5>Kapex guide is what they gave you know, on Friday,

0:40:05.000 --> 0:40:08.000
<v Speaker 5>so no change in that, but clearly the data center

0:40:08.040 --> 0:40:09.719
<v Speaker 5>expenses are eating into the.

0:40:09.680 --> 0:40:12.000
<v Speaker 3>Margins, which is something Gina Martin Adams has said, watch

0:40:12.040 --> 0:40:14.160
<v Speaker 3>with all of the companies reporting, but the tech guys

0:40:14.880 --> 0:40:17.560
<v Speaker 3>as well in terms of margins and seeing some pressure

0:40:17.600 --> 0:40:18.000
<v Speaker 3>on margins.

0:40:18.280 --> 0:40:20.759
<v Speaker 5>We seem to be the case with Microsoft there. So

0:40:20.880 --> 0:40:25.040
<v Speaker 5>that's the surprise here that Microsoft didn't call out, you know,

0:40:25.200 --> 0:40:29.040
<v Speaker 5>that kind of a margin impact from depreciation expenses in

0:40:29.080 --> 0:40:31.720
<v Speaker 5>their quarter, at least from the print that I saw,

0:40:32.360 --> 0:40:34.640
<v Speaker 5>But clearly it is having an impact on matter.

0:40:34.680 --> 0:40:38.120
<v Speaker 1>When you dig into what the CFO has been saying

0:40:38.200 --> 0:40:41.640
<v Speaker 1>as well, and ultimately she's talking about how the single

0:40:41.719 --> 0:40:43.960
<v Speaker 1>largest driver of their expense growth that you speak to

0:40:44.080 --> 0:40:46.760
<v Speaker 1>is going to be infrastructure costs. They say, hire operating

0:40:46.800 --> 0:40:50.040
<v Speaker 1>expenses depreciation as well of those assets or those data

0:40:50.040 --> 0:40:51.879
<v Speaker 1>centers more broadly, of the chips they have to keep

0:40:51.880 --> 0:40:54.920
<v Speaker 1>buying again. But then they say, employee conversations with the

0:40:54.960 --> 0:40:58.360
<v Speaker 1>second largest factor, as we add technical talent.

0:40:58.520 --> 0:41:01.759
<v Speaker 2>It's a good time priority that technical talent, right it.

0:41:01.719 --> 0:41:03.239
<v Speaker 6>Is you can go in charge a pretty penny if

0:41:03.280 --> 0:41:04.040
<v Speaker 6>you've got a nice computer.

0:41:04.320 --> 0:41:05.520
<v Speaker 2>So what is that? How do you read into that?

0:41:05.560 --> 0:41:08.120
<v Speaker 2>Does that mean that the folks who are the engineers

0:41:08.400 --> 0:41:13.120
<v Speaker 2>doing the AI stuff? Yeah, say the helpful demand, who.

0:41:13.120 --> 0:41:18.200
<v Speaker 1>Is that areas of infrastructure monetization, So interestingly obviously monetizing

0:41:18.200 --> 0:41:21.960
<v Speaker 1>their referable business reality labs, generative artificial intelligence as well

0:41:22.000 --> 0:41:26.720
<v Speaker 1>as regulation and compliance. They are the hr GO gets

0:41:26.880 --> 0:41:29.560
<v Speaker 1>for this particular year, and they are actually overall saying

0:41:29.600 --> 0:41:32.840
<v Speaker 1>that headcount has ticked high at ten percent year of

0:41:32.840 --> 0:41:35.200
<v Speaker 1>a year. Despite this efficiency mode they've been in.

0:41:35.400 --> 0:41:37.919
<v Speaker 2>There's also this note the majority of twenty twenty five

0:41:37.960 --> 0:41:41.560
<v Speaker 2>capex to be directed to core business. What's the definition

0:41:41.600 --> 0:41:44.320
<v Speaker 2>of metas core business? Is it the family of apps?

0:41:44.920 --> 0:41:47.399
<v Speaker 2>The Instagrams and the WhatsApp And to say, okay, we're

0:41:47.400 --> 0:41:51.399
<v Speaker 2>going to invest in that, so don't worry investors, We're

0:41:51.440 --> 0:41:53.359
<v Speaker 2>spending money on the company, on the parts of our

0:41:53.400 --> 0:41:55.319
<v Speaker 2>business that make money. Is that the message there?

0:41:55.560 --> 0:41:57.880
<v Speaker 6>I mean, Mandeep is your man to ask what's a

0:41:57.920 --> 0:41:58.440
<v Speaker 6>core business?

0:41:58.480 --> 0:42:01.520
<v Speaker 1>But I'd say Reality Labs isn't it even though their

0:42:01.560 --> 0:42:02.720
<v Speaker 1>company name is Meta.

0:42:03.360 --> 0:42:06.480
<v Speaker 5>Yeah. Look, I think overall they will be prudent when

0:42:06.520 --> 0:42:09.120
<v Speaker 5>it comes to headcom growth. They may have to pay

0:42:09.160 --> 0:42:11.920
<v Speaker 5>more for the AI talent, that's what they are alluding to.

0:42:12.400 --> 0:42:15.200
<v Speaker 5>But at the same time they are continuing to lose

0:42:15.239 --> 0:42:18.160
<v Speaker 5>money on Reality Labs. I would have expected, you know,

0:42:18.239 --> 0:42:21.680
<v Speaker 5>that will be your offset. If you see margin degradation,

0:42:22.360 --> 0:42:24.920
<v Speaker 5>you offset it in terms of Reality Labs losses.

0:42:25.000 --> 0:42:27.120
<v Speaker 2>You're not seeing that, So James chalk mark, this is

0:42:27.160 --> 0:42:32.080
<v Speaker 2>still a company that you know to The message to

0:42:32.120 --> 0:42:34.120
<v Speaker 2>investors is this is this is a company that makes

0:42:34.160 --> 0:42:38.800
<v Speaker 2>money because we're opening Instagram and we're using reels and

0:42:38.920 --> 0:42:41.919
<v Speaker 2>we're using the family of apps the core business. Right,

0:42:42.520 --> 0:42:44.680
<v Speaker 2>that's their message. They don't want people to get worried

0:42:44.719 --> 0:42:48.279
<v Speaker 2>that this is another you know, meta a foray into

0:42:48.280 --> 0:42:48.840
<v Speaker 2>the metaverse.

0:42:50.719 --> 0:42:53.560
<v Speaker 7>No, I mean, I think the metaverse continues to be

0:42:53.920 --> 0:42:56.200
<v Speaker 7>a long term vision for the company. But you know,

0:42:56.640 --> 0:42:59.440
<v Speaker 7>in this kind of market, you can't be looking at things,

0:43:00.120 --> 0:43:03.680
<v Speaker 7>you know, on a moonshots. Yeah, you have to be

0:43:03.719 --> 0:43:06.759
<v Speaker 7>able to just focus on the quarter and focus on

0:43:06.800 --> 0:43:09.200
<v Speaker 7>the year, and then most of some cases, you know,

0:43:09.239 --> 0:43:13.239
<v Speaker 7>even just focus on the week. So you know, the

0:43:13.320 --> 0:43:15.920
<v Speaker 7>duration that you evaluate these companies is becoming a lot

0:43:15.960 --> 0:43:19.640
<v Speaker 7>shorter and shorter, so as a volatility increase is given

0:43:19.680 --> 0:43:23.520
<v Speaker 7>the increase in uncertainty. So that being said, you know,

0:43:23.560 --> 0:43:26.480
<v Speaker 7>for a company like Meta, yeah, that's exactly how I

0:43:26.760 --> 0:43:30.759
<v Speaker 7>describe it and think about it. And those moonshots you

0:43:30.800 --> 0:43:33.759
<v Speaker 7>know as a TVD but not part of the calculus

0:43:33.800 --> 0:43:34.560
<v Speaker 7>as it stands today.

0:43:34.600 --> 0:43:36.920
<v Speaker 3>Hey, for those who care, and videos up about two

0:43:36.960 --> 0:43:39.160
<v Speaker 3>point one percent here in the aftermarket, so we're seeing

0:43:39.160 --> 0:43:39.879
<v Speaker 3>some movement there.

0:43:40.960 --> 0:43:43.880
<v Speaker 4>Meta not giving a full year.

0:43:43.760 --> 0:43:46.560
<v Speaker 3>Twenty twenty five revenue outlook mandep is that significant?

0:43:47.520 --> 0:43:50.120
<v Speaker 5>No, I think based on the one Q guide you

0:43:50.160 --> 0:43:52.480
<v Speaker 5>can see currency as a headmin In fact, it's a

0:43:52.520 --> 0:43:55.640
<v Speaker 5>three percent headmind, so quite significant. And the other thing

0:43:55.680 --> 0:43:59.520
<v Speaker 5>I can point out in the print is six percent

0:43:59.600 --> 0:44:02.839
<v Speaker 5>in pressure growth. That's the weakest they have had. So

0:44:02.880 --> 0:44:06.320
<v Speaker 5>fourteen percent pricing growth that's a result of AI, so

0:44:06.400 --> 0:44:10.120
<v Speaker 5>it's paying off in ad pricing, but six percent impressions growth.

0:44:10.400 --> 0:44:14.160
<v Speaker 5>There are two reasons why it's decelerating. One is they're

0:44:14.200 --> 0:44:17.320
<v Speaker 5>showing you less ads and to make a better experience.

0:44:17.400 --> 0:44:20.120
<v Speaker 5>Other is people are spending less time. I mean, it's

0:44:20.160 --> 0:44:23.600
<v Speaker 5>still the you know, they have three billion family users

0:44:23.600 --> 0:44:27.600
<v Speaker 5>across their family of apps, but incrementally there that engagement

0:44:27.640 --> 0:44:30.880
<v Speaker 5>growth is slowing down because they're not showing those ads

0:44:30.880 --> 0:44:32.200
<v Speaker 5>on elections over election.

0:44:32.280 --> 0:44:33.000
<v Speaker 4>No, I'm just kidding.

0:44:33.640 --> 0:44:36.280
<v Speaker 5>It could very well be, you know, a slew of factors,

0:44:36.320 --> 0:44:40.239
<v Speaker 5>but engagement growth is how impressions grow, and so six

0:44:40.280 --> 0:44:42.440
<v Speaker 5>percent is the weakest they've had for a while.

0:44:42.600 --> 0:44:45.360
<v Speaker 2>Well, Caroline, our own Kurt Wagner pointing out that Meta's

0:44:45.400 --> 0:44:48.960
<v Speaker 2>average price per ad increased by fourteen percent year over year.

0:44:49.000 --> 0:44:50.879
<v Speaker 2>It increased ten percent year over year for the full

0:44:50.920 --> 0:44:54.320
<v Speaker 2>year of twenty twenty four. Is it because the AI

0:44:54.840 --> 0:44:57.839
<v Speaker 2>that they've the AA investments they've made are making those

0:44:57.920 --> 0:45:01.440
<v Speaker 2>ads so much more targeted, better targeted, or.

0:45:01.400 --> 0:45:04.080
<v Speaker 1>Whether people just know that if you're going to be

0:45:04.120 --> 0:45:06.759
<v Speaker 1>committing any capital anywhere in terms of marketing, it's a

0:45:06.840 --> 0:45:08.920
<v Speaker 1>very good bet to be doing it on the Family

0:45:08.920 --> 0:45:11.359
<v Speaker 1>of Apps. That met her off as it's interesting, We've

0:45:11.360 --> 0:45:14.680
<v Speaker 1>had Mick Mac on the show, which is a company

0:45:14.719 --> 0:45:18.480
<v Speaker 1>the tracks digital spend in particular and efficacy, and she

0:45:18.600 --> 0:45:19.080
<v Speaker 1>came on and.

0:45:19.000 --> 0:45:20.280
<v Speaker 6>Said ash biograph.

0:45:20.640 --> 0:45:22.840
<v Speaker 1>Rachel came on and said, the beginning of this year,

0:45:23.440 --> 0:45:25.400
<v Speaker 1>we have seen a big dive in the amount of

0:45:25.440 --> 0:45:28.920
<v Speaker 1>money and marketing being committed to the likes of metas

0:45:29.040 --> 0:45:31.399
<v Speaker 1>Family of Apps was her take, and the data which

0:45:31.440 --> 0:45:33.439
<v Speaker 1>she was seeing in her theory was on the back

0:45:33.480 --> 0:45:36.879
<v Speaker 1>of some of the politicization of Mark Zuckerberg of late,

0:45:37.160 --> 0:45:41.719
<v Speaker 1>and indeed, therefore, without the assessment of some of the

0:45:41.760 --> 0:45:44.680
<v Speaker 1>content and some of the fact checkers that are there anymore,

0:45:44.800 --> 0:45:48.120
<v Speaker 1>people have started to shy away from committing their brands.

0:45:47.760 --> 0:45:48.440
<v Speaker 6>Onto that company.

0:45:48.520 --> 0:45:50.759
<v Speaker 1>Now that is Mick Mac's perspective, and we'll have to

0:45:50.760 --> 0:45:52.480
<v Speaker 1>see whether it's be indicated through what is said on

0:45:52.480 --> 0:45:54.239
<v Speaker 1>this particular part of the business. But as you say,

0:45:54.280 --> 0:45:56.360
<v Speaker 1>if there's a slight pulling back in impressions, but the

0:45:56.400 --> 0:45:58.719
<v Speaker 1>average prices are managing to go up. They're managing to

0:45:58.760 --> 0:46:01.600
<v Speaker 1>remain incredibly important to the brands that do remain committed

0:46:01.640 --> 0:46:02.600
<v Speaker 1>and charge more for it.

0:46:02.719 --> 0:46:04.719
<v Speaker 3>Going back to Meta and the business, and I think

0:46:04.760 --> 0:46:08.080
<v Speaker 3>it's interesting coming off of a FED meeting today where

0:46:08.760 --> 0:46:11.080
<v Speaker 3>certainly the FED chair was asked about policies coming out

0:46:11.120 --> 0:46:14.960
<v Speaker 3>of the administration, regulatory or others. A little warning from

0:46:15.360 --> 0:46:19.120
<v Speaker 3>our live blog when it comes to Meta metas CFO

0:46:19.320 --> 0:46:21.720
<v Speaker 3>in the release, saying, in addition, we continue to monitor

0:46:22.120 --> 0:46:25.719
<v Speaker 3>an active regulatory landscape, including legal and regulatory headwinds in

0:46:25.760 --> 0:46:28.400
<v Speaker 3>the EEU and the US that could significantly impact our

0:46:28.440 --> 0:46:31.560
<v Speaker 3>business and our financial results. James Chacmat, come on back in.

0:46:31.640 --> 0:46:34.040
<v Speaker 3>I mean, let's not forget there are things that are

0:46:34.080 --> 0:46:36.400
<v Speaker 3>overhanging some of these big tech companies like a Meta.

0:46:38.760 --> 0:46:41.920
<v Speaker 7>Yes, that's true, but that's the case always. You know,

0:46:42.520 --> 0:46:45.719
<v Speaker 7>all of these companies constantly face regular stories scrutiny both

0:46:45.800 --> 0:46:48.879
<v Speaker 7>here and abroad. But I think with the change in administration,

0:46:49.120 --> 0:46:53.680
<v Speaker 7>some of that may alleviate here at least the state side.

0:46:53.920 --> 0:46:57.480
<v Speaker 7>We'll see what happens overseas, but overall, I mean that's

0:46:57.480 --> 0:46:59.920
<v Speaker 7>an overhang I think you constantly have to grapple with,

0:47:01.200 --> 0:47:04.239
<v Speaker 7>so you know, it's it's something that kind of been

0:47:04.280 --> 0:47:04.959
<v Speaker 7>meal into at.

0:47:04.840 --> 0:47:07.440
<v Speaker 2>This point, Caroline. Is the regulatory landscape in the US

0:47:07.719 --> 0:47:11.239
<v Speaker 2>less worrisome for meta platforms now than it was a

0:47:11.280 --> 0:47:15.640
<v Speaker 2>year ago? Given Mark Zuckerberg's relationship with Donald Trump, his

0:47:15.760 --> 0:47:18.279
<v Speaker 2>visit Tomorrow Lago, his trip to Washington, d C. What

0:47:18.440 --> 0:47:21.160
<v Speaker 2>he's saign the Joe Rogues podcast, great point, Dana White

0:47:21.160 --> 0:47:21.640
<v Speaker 2>on the board.

0:47:22.320 --> 0:47:24.400
<v Speaker 1>I mean, they've just settled twenty five million dollars for

0:47:24.600 --> 0:47:27.879
<v Speaker 1>kicking Trump off their family of apps previously, So maybe

0:47:27.880 --> 0:47:31.480
<v Speaker 1>we'll see some culmination of what that previously no love

0:47:31.520 --> 0:47:34.440
<v Speaker 1>lost will currently end up being. I think people had

0:47:34.440 --> 0:47:38.840
<v Speaker 1>felt actually the realignment of Zuckerberg, whether that's from a

0:47:38.840 --> 0:47:42.000
<v Speaker 1>fiduciary duty perspective or whether that's just actually where he

0:47:42.080 --> 0:47:46.719
<v Speaker 1>feels in terms of personal persuasion, have ultimately will bear

0:47:46.760 --> 0:47:48.719
<v Speaker 1>fruit when it comes to doing business. Look, we've seen

0:47:49.120 --> 0:47:53.080
<v Speaker 1>from Oracle, from open Ai, from SoftBank, from you name it, Dubai,

0:47:53.520 --> 0:47:57.319
<v Speaker 1>wealth magnates and real estate billionaires.

0:47:57.480 --> 0:48:00.120
<v Speaker 6>How do you do business in America? Now?

0:48:00.640 --> 0:48:03.200
<v Speaker 1>You go visit mar A Lago, you pay some money

0:48:03.200 --> 0:48:06.720
<v Speaker 1>to attend ultimately the inauguration, and you see what deals

0:48:06.719 --> 0:48:08.480
<v Speaker 1>can be done. And I think many would say that

0:48:08.520 --> 0:48:10.759
<v Speaker 1>what Zuckoworg's been doing is in line with that.

0:48:10.880 --> 0:48:13.200
<v Speaker 6>I think the regulatory landscape from an M and.

0:48:13.160 --> 0:48:17.080
<v Speaker 1>A perspective becomes different with a new FTC, new ultimate

0:48:17.800 --> 0:48:19.640
<v Speaker 1>overseeing of what happens with the SEC.

0:48:20.200 --> 0:48:23.000
<v Speaker 6>But I'm sure there's still some.

0:48:22.920 --> 0:48:24.640
<v Speaker 1>He's got some way to go to make up for

0:48:25.160 --> 0:48:26.840
<v Speaker 1>some of the lines that were said last year of

0:48:26.840 --> 0:48:30.000
<v Speaker 1>maybe he'll end up in jail because of Trump's irritation

0:48:30.280 --> 0:48:32.000
<v Speaker 1>with past misdemeanors.

0:48:32.080 --> 0:48:34.359
<v Speaker 3>I'm only going to mention some of them because there's

0:48:34.400 --> 0:48:36.080
<v Speaker 3>a ton of earnings out here after the close, But

0:48:36.200 --> 0:48:38.800
<v Speaker 3>just to rehash, Microsoft down about one point six percently

0:48:38.840 --> 0:48:42.200
<v Speaker 3>after markets, certainly off its loads of the earlier trade

0:48:42.239 --> 0:48:45.560
<v Speaker 3>right after earnings. Tusla now up about three point four percent.

0:48:45.600 --> 0:48:48.240
<v Speaker 3>It had been down about four or five percent.

0:48:48.320 --> 0:48:48.480
<v Speaker 4>Here.

0:48:48.600 --> 0:48:52.279
<v Speaker 3>IBM has rallied about eight percent after its earnings. We've

0:48:52.280 --> 0:48:54.520
<v Speaker 3>been talking about Meta, it is up about one percent,

0:48:54.520 --> 0:48:58.160
<v Speaker 3>and Nvidia, which doesn't report until late February, is up

0:48:58.200 --> 0:49:01.879
<v Speaker 3>almost two percent in today's trade here in the aftermarket.

0:49:02.160 --> 0:49:03.640
<v Speaker 3>James CHOCKMK it's been.

0:49:03.520 --> 0:49:04.160
<v Speaker 4>Quite a week.

0:49:04.880 --> 0:49:05.080
<v Speaker 5>You know.

0:49:05.120 --> 0:49:06.799
<v Speaker 3>One of the things when I think about big tech

0:49:06.840 --> 0:49:10.759
<v Speaker 3>in particular is the environment for rates. And we had

0:49:10.760 --> 0:49:13.520
<v Speaker 3>a FED decision, right and it seems like FED rate

0:49:14.080 --> 0:49:17.120
<v Speaker 3>moves to the downside cuts seem to be putting off

0:49:17.600 --> 0:49:20.080
<v Speaker 3>more and more this year here in twenty twenty five.

0:49:20.400 --> 0:49:23.920
<v Speaker 3>How are you thinking about valuations and the rate environment

0:49:23.960 --> 0:49:26.080
<v Speaker 3>and what that potentially needs for some of these names

0:49:26.160 --> 0:49:28.879
<v Speaker 3>or is that not as important versus maybe hearing about

0:49:28.920 --> 0:49:31.280
<v Speaker 3>their AI spend or other things.

0:49:32.360 --> 0:49:35.640
<v Speaker 7>Valuation is certainly a factor, you know, when it comes

0:49:35.680 --> 0:49:37.920
<v Speaker 7>to rates. Now it's a big picture. When it comes

0:49:38.000 --> 0:49:40.640
<v Speaker 7>to rates, we do think, you know, we perhaps have

0:49:40.680 --> 0:49:45.399
<v Speaker 7>a more slightly more dobbish stance than some of the market. Well,

0:49:45.440 --> 0:49:48.359
<v Speaker 7>we do kind of agree with Powell that the rates

0:49:48.400 --> 0:49:52.880
<v Speaker 7>are likely trending towards zero, not zero, towards two percent

0:49:53.640 --> 0:49:57.720
<v Speaker 7>inflation rates. So you know, we think that the market's

0:49:57.719 --> 0:50:00.920
<v Speaker 7>currently expecting two rate cuts this year June and December.

0:50:00.960 --> 0:50:04.200
<v Speaker 7>That's pretty probable scenario.

0:50:04.800 --> 0:50:05.479
<v Speaker 2>So that's good.

0:50:06.600 --> 0:50:10.040
<v Speaker 7>That being said, the stocks that were primarily focused on

0:50:10.160 --> 0:50:13.680
<v Speaker 7>and weigh leaning into are the ones that have not

0:50:13.719 --> 0:50:17.840
<v Speaker 7>only upside to estimates but also upside to their valuation.

0:50:18.000 --> 0:50:22.400
<v Speaker 7>Multiple now across the big tax tech space, there's not

0:50:22.440 --> 0:50:25.000
<v Speaker 7>that many of those, I'd say, with the exception of

0:50:25.440 --> 0:50:28.719
<v Speaker 7>Meta really and to a certain extent Google or Alphabet.

0:50:29.400 --> 0:50:33.480
<v Speaker 7>The other ones are pretty much in. Apple's up there,

0:50:33.520 --> 0:50:38.759
<v Speaker 7>Microsoft's up there. You know, Tesla's certainly not cheap. So yeah,

0:50:39.280 --> 0:50:41.200
<v Speaker 7>it's something that we have to be mindful of. We're

0:50:41.239 --> 0:50:44.080
<v Speaker 7>there because you know, you have to benchmark yourself to

0:50:44.120 --> 0:50:47.360
<v Speaker 7>a certain extent on the top ten names in the Nasdaq.

0:50:47.440 --> 0:50:50.080
<v Speaker 7>But that's certainly not our oversize and we've.

0:50:49.920 --> 0:50:51.400
<v Speaker 4>Only got about a minute left here.

0:50:51.920 --> 0:50:54.920
<v Speaker 1>Does TikTok matter to the revenue guide for the future

0:50:54.920 --> 0:50:57.040
<v Speaker 1>of Meta and just quickly.

0:50:57.600 --> 0:50:59.320
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, I mean I think TikTok matters to all of

0:50:59.360 --> 0:51:04.240
<v Speaker 7>these companies. We'll see what happens, but it's certainly something

0:51:04.280 --> 0:51:08.440
<v Speaker 7>to be mindful of, cognizant and follow extremely closely. You know,

0:51:08.480 --> 0:51:11.680
<v Speaker 7>if it does come in two domestic hands, you know,

0:51:11.719 --> 0:51:14.200
<v Speaker 7>that could change the calculus to a certain extent. So

0:51:14.960 --> 0:51:17.240
<v Speaker 7>I think Meta will be fine regardless. You know, TikTok

0:51:17.280 --> 0:51:20.719
<v Speaker 7>is obviously already here, but you know, what does that

0:51:20.719 --> 0:51:24.759
<v Speaker 7>mean for the valuations and and whatnot? So my mind

0:51:24.760 --> 0:51:27.840
<v Speaker 7>full of it, not worried about it right now, but

0:51:28.280 --> 0:51:29.600
<v Speaker 7>definitely keeping an eye all.

0:51:29.560 --> 0:51:31.359
<v Speaker 3>Right, Well, we are keeping an eye on a lot

0:51:31.360 --> 0:51:33.160
<v Speaker 3>of stuff, and we ain't done yet because it's still

0:51:33.200 --> 0:51:35.359
<v Speaker 3>got We've got more stuff to come this week. Our

0:51:35.400 --> 0:51:38.520
<v Speaker 3>thanks to our external guests and also of course our

0:51:38.560 --> 0:51:41.880
<v Speaker 3>incredible in house team James Chackmok, thank you, first partner

0:51:41.920 --> 0:51:43.800
<v Speaker 3>and technology Analystic Clockwise Capital.

0:51:44.280 --> 0:51:45.040
<v Speaker 4>They're in Miami.

0:51:45.120 --> 0:51:50.200
<v Speaker 3>Caroline Hyde, you rock covering so much about the tech community,

0:51:50.280 --> 0:51:52.759
<v Speaker 3>and be sure to check her out on Bloomberg Technology

0:51:52.760 --> 0:51:55.200
<v Speaker 3>on Bloomberg TV at eleven am Wall Street Time. She

0:51:55.360 --> 0:51:57.480
<v Speaker 3>is one of the co hosts of Bloomberg Technology.

0:51:58.520 --> 0:52:01.000
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, just a big thank you to our Bloomberg Intelligence

0:52:01.000 --> 0:52:03.479
<v Speaker 2>team too, both here in the studio today, Man Deep

0:52:03.520 --> 0:52:06.920
<v Speaker 2>Saying covering all things Meta and Moran anurad Rana on Microsoft.

0:52:07.040 --> 0:52:10.120
<v Speaker 2>Check out their notes. They're out now on the Bloomberg.

0:52:09.680 --> 0:52:11.600
<v Speaker 3>Terminal, and be sure to check out all of the

0:52:11.880 --> 0:52:14.640
<v Speaker 3>write throughs on the stories and on the names that

0:52:14.680 --> 0:52:17.160
<v Speaker 3>have been reporting here because they are moving in the aftermarket.

0:52:17.160 --> 0:52:18.279
<v Speaker 4>That's going to do it for Tim And we have

0:52:18.320 --> 0:52:19.240
<v Speaker 4>a good and safe evening.