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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go, probes growing angular. We're saying

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Speaker 2: it's a cash touch.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to win. My god, that's incredible. Big Banks, I'm

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Speaker 3: all banks, I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabai.

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Speaker 4: Want to.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Hello everyone, Welcome back to the NFL Week sixteen Fantasy

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Speaker 2: Flex on the Action Network Podcast. I'm Matthew Frieman, the

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Speaker 2: editor in chief of Fantasy Labs, and with me for

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Speaker 2: Championship Week as always as Shawn Corner and Chris Raymond.

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Speaker 2: Shawn is our director of predictive Analytics and one of

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Speaker 2: the top end season fantasy football rankers for the past

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Speaker 2: half decade, and Chris is a senior editor and analyst

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Speaker 2: at the Action Network and a co host at the

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Speaker 2: Action Network show on series XM Fantasy Radio. And joining

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Speaker 2: us for his second long form guest appearance this season

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Speaker 2: is Peter Jenning's Akacs Ram eighty eight, a two time

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Speaker 2: DFS World champion and a co founder of Fantasy Laps Pete.

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Speaker 2: Week sixteen, the biggest week of the season. Do you

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Speaker 2: still have some high stakes seasonal teams in the running

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Speaker 2: for number one?

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Speaker 5: Not for number one? Lost one of the most brutal

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Speaker 5: season long beats I've had, which everyone posts screenshots and whatnot,

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Speaker 5: but really, Big League lost by five points with Kenyan Drake.

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Speaker 5: Fourteen team league scored one hundred and fifty five points.

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Speaker 5: The other semi finals was one twenty to one oh one,

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Speaker 5: so that was frustrating. I had like forty some basketball

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Speaker 5: teams on draft get through initially, and I lost all

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Speaker 5: of them the week thirteen, So it's an anti climatic

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Speaker 5: season long league. But luckily we still have DFS and

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Speaker 5: it was a good week at DFS last week, So

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Speaker 5: hoping the chock does well relatively again this week. And yeah,

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Speaker 5: how about you guys. I'm sure you guys are in

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Speaker 5: a lot of championships.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so I'm in the championship match against my d

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Speaker 1: in the league that my dad started back when I

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Speaker 1: was one years old. I don't think we've ever faced

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Speaker 1: each other, so it's it's pretty emotional matchup there. It's

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Speaker 1: not for as much money as my other leagues, but

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Speaker 1: more of a sentimental matchup. So I'm coming for your dad.

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Speaker 2: That's nice.

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Speaker 1: That's it.

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Speaker 2: That's a good one, Raymond, what about you.

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Speaker 4: In one of my big home leagues, I had Kenyan

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Speaker 4: Drake too, so going to the championship in that one.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, no, no, really luck with with best ball

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Speaker 4: this year as much. A bunch of my teams got

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Speaker 4: just killed by all the what was it, Darwin Thompson,

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Speaker 4: Tony Pollard, all those guys.

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Speaker 3: Exposure too little, too late.

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Speaker 4: So trying to win this home league and hopefully I

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Speaker 4: can keep riding Kenyon.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. So there are three three leagues that I kind

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Speaker 2: of care about the most. One is the long long

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Speaker 2: time Dicey League I've had with friends from high school,

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Speaker 2: and I am you know, in the championship game, have

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Speaker 2: a chance to win for the fifth time in eight years,

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Speaker 2: but it would be the first time that it would

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Speaker 2: be back to back, so that will be very very

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Speaker 2: exciting if that works out. And then in another league,

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Speaker 2: Dynasty as well. It's an industry league, and I'm in

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Speaker 2: the championship game facing JJ Zach Gareson, so a good

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Speaker 2: matchup there. And then in the third one, which I

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Speaker 2: co manage with Man's, we are dead last in that league,

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Speaker 2: which is no surprise considering that the two of us

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Speaker 2: are teaming up on that. So anyway, a good week

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Speaker 2: and exciting week and exciting time of the year, So

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Speaker 2: let's get into it. In this episode, we are breaking

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Speaker 2: down the players at the top of our rankings, which

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Speaker 2: are available at actionetwork dot com slash Fantasy. We're discussing

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Speaker 2: the guys who are high and low on and we

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Speaker 2: are speculating on some props. Let's start at the quarterback position.

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Speaker 2: The three guys at the top of our rankings. It's

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Speaker 2: not a surprise Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, and Russell Wilson.

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Speaker 2: Of course, keep in mind that Deshaun Watson is playing

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Speaker 2: on Saturday, so off the main slate, but for everyone

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Speaker 2: who is playing in season log, you will want to

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Speaker 2: think about him. He's got a nice matchup on the

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Speaker 2: road at Tampa Bay Pete. Who are some of the

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Speaker 2: guys that you are relatively high on this week and

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Speaker 2: is there anyone that you would want to include in

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Speaker 2: that top tier at the position?

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Speaker 5: I thank Lamar Jackson's in a tier of his own

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Speaker 5: across the industry. We've just seen it. He's just been

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Speaker 5: so ridiculously good throughout the entire season that I think

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Speaker 5: he's clearly the guy that you want to target. Obviously

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Speaker 5: he's expensive, but Russell Wilson is the X guy for

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Speaker 5: me just in terms of raw projection that I think

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Speaker 5: is a really compelling play and probably he's going to

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Speaker 5: grade out as a better play in DFS given his

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Speaker 5: discount and price. Arizona obviously is a really good matchup,

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Speaker 5: and you know, Russell Wilson have had a really big

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Speaker 5: game last week, just kind of the game flow didn't

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Speaker 5: work in his favor. Start off with a couple touchdown

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Speaker 5: passes to lock of the metcalfs, so we'll see what

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Speaker 5: transpires there and then getting into the cheaper options. I mean,

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Speaker 5: I love this Miami Cincinnati game. So I'm pretty high

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Speaker 5: on Ryan Patrick as well as Andy Dalton, and I

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Speaker 5: think Philip Rivers is interesting. Problem is he just really

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Speaker 5: never has a big ceiling game. That's kind of where

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Speaker 5: I'm looking. Now, what do you guys think?

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Speaker 1: I'm high on Gardner Minshew as a GPP play. He's

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Speaker 1: just off the season long radar. You know, I have

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Speaker 1: him QB eighteen right now, but he has some sneaky

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Speaker 1: upside in this matchup and he's only fifty five hundred.

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Speaker 1: He just mentioned Rivers at fifty seven hundred. I think

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Speaker 1: that's kind of the range I'll be targeting this week.

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Speaker 1: Lamar is just super expensive at eight k. But Gardner

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Speaker 1: should be getting a DJ Chark this back this week.

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Speaker 1: And he's you know, he's rushed for over twenty five

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Speaker 1: yards and I believe five straight games. So he's a

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Speaker 1: guy that's just he's going to be super low owned.

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Speaker 1: He hasn't really done much lately, but he still has

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Speaker 1: that upside. It's it's at Atlanta, this sort of a

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Speaker 1: meaningless game that could actually turn into a shootout. So

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Speaker 1: I kind of like the over on this game as well.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, Gardner Mitschew at fifty five hundred is going

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Speaker 1: to be low owned. And you know, out of all

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Speaker 1: these guys in this price range, I think he has

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Speaker 1: the highest upside.

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Speaker 2: Sean. You mentioned Philip Rivers. He's the who's popping the

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Speaker 2: most in the Friedman model at Fantasy Labs, which I

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Speaker 2: should say I think is the sexiest of our models. Raymond,

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Speaker 2: who are you relatively high on this week?

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Speaker 4: I think Kyler Murray in that Seattle Arizona game, I

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Speaker 4: think that's a really good call from Pete With Russell Wilson,

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Speaker 4: this is just an amazing spot for him.

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Speaker 3: Arizona's defense has been extremely.

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Speaker 4: Bad, and I think that you could kind of create

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Speaker 4: some shootout potential going back the other way with Kyler

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Speaker 4: in that one. So I like him, and then Ryan

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Speaker 4: Tannehill going back to him in a game that could

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Speaker 4: be pretty high scoring with the Saints even though they

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Speaker 4: are on the road. You know, Ryan Tannehill, you pointed

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Speaker 4: it out in your weekly trends piece at Actually Network Friedman,

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Speaker 4: But Ryan Tannehill has every game he's been playing, they've

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Speaker 4: been hitting the over and there's actually a trend that

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Speaker 4: goes back to even when he was in Miami, when

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Speaker 4: he was at home, the over was hitting at about

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Speaker 4: a seventy five percent clip so since twenty sixteen. So

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Speaker 4: I think that after seeing how Drew Brees played on

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Speaker 4: Monday Night and Michael Thomas, you know, no one's going

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Speaker 4: to be able to regard him. I think that you're

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Speaker 4: going to probably see another one of these higher scoring

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Speaker 4: games with Tennessee.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Raybaud, I totally agree. I like a shootout in

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Speaker 2: that game. One guy I'm relatively high on is Jamis Winston.

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Speaker 2: I know he doesn't have Evans, doesn't have Godwin, but

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Speaker 2: he does have the will to throw the ball fifty

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Speaker 2: times per game and to throw it as far as

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Speaker 2: he can. And he has a great matchup going against

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Speaker 2: the Houston Texans. He's at home, so I like this

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Speaker 2: spot for him. Pete, who are you relatively low on?

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Speaker 5: Relatively low on is a good question at this point

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Speaker 5: in time of the week. I guess Rivers would be.

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Speaker 5: I just brought him up just for tournaments. If you

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Speaker 5: look the Rivers game log, he just really never gets

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Speaker 5: like that huge, huge tournament winning spot. And I know

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Speaker 5: this is a great matchup against Oakland, and I actually

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Speaker 5: think he's in consideration for cash, but the lack of

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Speaker 5: ceiling for Philip Rivers is a real concern for me.

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Speaker 5: You know, another guy I think might start getting a

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Speaker 5: lot of you know, pub would be someone like Dak Prescott,

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Speaker 5: who I've been high on throughout the year. I think

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Speaker 5: I'd rather pay up to Russell Wilson relative to Dak.

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Speaker 5: You know, going into Philadelphia, I still have respect for

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Speaker 5: their defense, even though they've been you know, getting torched

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Speaker 5: by the pass. So it's tough to figure out who

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Speaker 5: I'm really short on early in the week, but I

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Speaker 5: think Rivers for tournaments to be the one I had

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Speaker 5: the most conviction on. I hate to say the bad

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Speaker 5: things about Dak because I'm a big Dak, a Mauri

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Speaker 5: Gallup guy, but second divisional game obviously really important. I

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Speaker 5: do think it's more important to pay up for someone

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Speaker 5: like Russell Wilson.

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Speaker 2: Sean what do you think you are? You relatively low on.

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Speaker 1: So this guy's on the main slate, so this is

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Speaker 1: more for season long. But Jared Goff, I'm low on

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Speaker 1: him again this week. Last week I mentioned it's pretty

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Speaker 1: easy to spot when he's gonna have a good game

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Speaker 1: or struggle. It's usually, you know, teams that are able

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Speaker 1: to generate pressure, that's when he's guaranteed to struggle, and

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Speaker 1: teams that don't generate pressure usually goes off. And you know,

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Speaker 1: the first fifty sevens of the game, he was probably

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Speaker 1: sub top twenty five QB numbers and then just managed

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Speaker 1: to have some great garbage time stats. I think he

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Speaker 1: ended up in the top fifteen. But this week at

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Speaker 1: San Francisco, you know, the third most pressure team in

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Speaker 1: the league, He's going to struggle and I don't think

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Speaker 1: we're going to get that garbage time at the very end.

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Speaker 1: So he's I haven't ranked as my QB twenty two

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Speaker 1: right now. So despite you know, managing to put up

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Speaker 1: a decent score last week, I think you have to

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Speaker 1: fade him in your championship games this week and look elsewhere.

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Speaker 2: Raybon, what about you?

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Speaker 4: Aaron Rodgers For me, and that's been kind of a

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Speaker 4: consistent theme for me all year. Unless he's in one

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Speaker 4: of these really smashed matchups, I just don't think the

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Speaker 4: Packers have any interest in really getting in shootout type

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Speaker 4: of game flows nowadays.

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Speaker 3: They also tend to put.

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Speaker 4: Up points early in the game in the first quarter maybe,

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Speaker 4: but they they kind of slow down and go quiet

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Speaker 4: for long stretches and they're just an inconsistent offense that

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Speaker 4: I think for the first time career, he really has

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Speaker 4: a running back that is taking what normally would be

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Speaker 4: touchdown passes, because remember Aaron Rodgers under McCarthy, they were

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Speaker 4: passing inside the five, but I think the highest clip

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Speaker 4: in the league for like every year, year in year out,

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Speaker 4: and Aaron Rodgers was connecting on those touchdown throws at

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Speaker 4: the highest rate in the league. And now you're seeing

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Speaker 4: Aaron Jones with all these multiple touchdown games and a

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Speaker 4: lot of times there's not much else with that offense.

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Speaker 4: So you know, Minnesota, you know Mike zimmer defense, you know,

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Speaker 4: going to be a competitive game.

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Speaker 3: Division games usually go under late in the year.

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Speaker 4: I just don't like the spot for Rogers, so I

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Speaker 4: have him at QB eighteen right now.

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Speaker 2: All right, one guy, I'm low on. This is probably

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Speaker 2: low hanging fruit, but Jacoby Brissette. The showing on Monday

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Speaker 2: Night Football in week fifteen was absolutely atrocious, and playing

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Speaker 2: against Carolina, I just don't think it's the right matchup.

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Speaker 2: Carolina is really exploitable via the running game, and so

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Speaker 2: the Colts tend to lean towards the running game anyway.

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Speaker 2: So even if offensively they have success, and I don't

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Speaker 2: even think that's a given, but even if they do

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Speaker 2: have success, I think it will be more on the

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Speaker 2: ground and through the running backs than through Jacoby Brissett.

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Speaker 2: So I think it's pretty easy to get away from him.

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Speaker 2: This week, Sean, I want to kick it to you

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Speaker 2: for our quarterback prop of the week. By the way,

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Speaker 2: everyone should be sure to check out the Fantasy Lapse

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Speaker 2: prop tool the bets for the props that have a

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Speaker 2: bet quality of ten going back to last season have

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Speaker 2: a sixty percent hit rate, so pretty pretty good tool, Sean.

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Speaker 1: So you just mentioned him, but I'm going to go

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Speaker 1: Jameis Winston total passing yards at home against the Texans,

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Speaker 1: likely without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. So this is

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Speaker 1: a really tricky projection, and I took him at the

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Speaker 1: beginning of the year at eleven to one. I think

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Speaker 1: it was to have the most passing yards. The only

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Speaker 1: guy that can catch him right now is Dak so

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Speaker 1: I need him to keep this up. But first QB

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Speaker 1: ever to have back to back four hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: yard games through the air. So I mean, I'm just

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Speaker 1: gonna throw it out there. I have him at three

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Speaker 1: h two and a half right now.

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Speaker 2: I'll take the over. I like the matchup, and I

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Speaker 2: have him at I believe, yeah, looking at it, just

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Speaker 2: a little under three twelve, so we're not all that

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Speaker 2: far off, but I'll take the over.

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Speaker 5: I'll take the over too. Give them the matchup against

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Speaker 5: Houston and scheams should have a lot of passing in general,

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Speaker 5: so that suits both offense as well and should be

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Speaker 5: really fantasy friendly obviously, the Godwin and Evans injury's hurt.

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Speaker 5: But I still think Jamis is going to throw out

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Speaker 5: a ton and for your sake, Sean, hopefully he keeps putting.

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Speaker 3: Up the art, I'll bounce it out and take the under.

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Speaker 4: I think we've seen this out of Jamis before, where

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Speaker 4: he just goes off and then he.

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Speaker 3: Could have an ugly game.

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Speaker 4: So we also don't know exactly how Tampa Bay's going

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Speaker 4: to play this now with two of these guys out,

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Speaker 4: they could.

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Speaker 3: Be a little more run oriented. Houston is not really.

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Speaker 4: Good at a stopping the run either, so I have

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Speaker 4: him a little bit under, a little bit under three

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Speaker 4: hundred conservatively for now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, do you think they'll just do more

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Speaker 1: too tight end sets. I could see Howard and Brake

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Speaker 1: having big games. He sells Perryman. I think they still

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Speaker 1: have weapons for him to not not take too big

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Speaker 1: of a step back. But it's a tricky projection.

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Speaker 4: It's the tough thing is let's say they go with

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Speaker 4: more Howard because Bray did run I think it was

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Speaker 4: the fifth most or fourth most routes last week. And

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Speaker 4: if they go more Howard, more Brat or there's more

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Speaker 4: targets going to the running backs, like the past attempts

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Speaker 4: can stay the same. But it like those air yards

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Speaker 4: that Evans and Godwin were kind of eating up.

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Speaker 3: If he doesn't get those back.

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Speaker 4: With like a paraman who's been, you know, very volatile,

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Speaker 4: it'll be tough, I think to hit it. So's it's

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Speaker 4: like a super high volatility projection.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that's really fair. To Raybond's point, Evans was

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Speaker 2: like one of the top air yards receivers in the

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Speaker 2: league and Godwin was one of the top yards after

292
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Speaker 2: the catch receivers. So like without both of those guys,

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Speaker 2: his passing projection could take a hit there. So good point.

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Speaker 2: Let's get to running backs. We have at the top

295
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Speaker 2: of our rankings Christian McCaffrey, Chris Carson, and Ezekiel Elliott.

296
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Speaker 2: A pretty good triumvirate of runners there. One guy to

297
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Speaker 2: keep an eye on is Dalvin Cook. We are recording

298
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Speaker 2: this earlier in the week, so his injury issues haven't

299
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Speaker 2: really been settled yet. If he plays this week, I

300
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Speaker 2: imagine he will be at least in our top five,

301
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Speaker 2: but you know, maybe maybe top three even So be

302
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Speaker 2: sure to keep an eye on him and remember that

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Speaker 2: these rankings can change. And will change as the week progresses. Pete,

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Speaker 2: who are you looking at this week? Guys who relatively

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Speaker 2: high on anyone you would want to include in the

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Speaker 2: top tier at the position.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm absolutely in love with Joe Mixon this week,

308
00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:41,720
Speaker 5: who has been trending completely in the right direction now

309
00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:45,160
Speaker 5: gets a dream matchup against the Dolphins, and I love

310
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Speaker 5: his involvement both in the running game, where he's gotten

311
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Speaker 5: twenty three and twenty five attempts the last two weeks

312
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Speaker 5: and last three weeks he's been seeing more targets as well,

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Speaker 5: which is really encouraging. He's been low owned all year.

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Speaker 5: I think he's a really, really talented player. I don't

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Speaker 5: think Miami wants anything to do with winning this game,

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Speaker 5: given that you know all the tanking that they've done

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Speaker 5: and the players are thrown out there. So I love mixing.

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Speaker 5: It's a great bet on talent. Obviously, the Bengals have

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Speaker 5: been just pitiful all year, but uh, this is as

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Speaker 5: good of a matchup as you're gonna see. So he's

321
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Speaker 5: one of my favorite plays overall. You know, I think

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Speaker 5: you can make compelling arguments for a lot of guys

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Speaker 5: at the very top, just in terms of raw projection. Obviously,

324
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Speaker 5: Christian McCaffrey is going to be the top guy, but

325
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Speaker 5: after that, you know, Zeke Carson, Saquon I think are

326
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Speaker 5: all on consideration, and one guy who's rating pretty well,

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Speaker 5: I'm actually quite low on that. We'll get to here

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Speaker 5: in a bit.

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Speaker 2: Sean, who are you relatively high on?

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Speaker 1: I'm pretty high on Adrian Peterson this week. It's a

331
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Speaker 1: rare time where we get the Redskins as favorites, so

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Speaker 1: that you know, that always helps Adrian Peterson's outlook. You know,

333
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Speaker 1: he has a touchdown three straight and with Darius Guy's gone,

334
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Speaker 1: he actually sort of absorbed his role and he his

335
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Speaker 1: routs run per drop back shut up to thirty five

336
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Speaker 1: percent last week, and Chris Thompson stayed the same right

337
00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:06,080
Speaker 1: right in the mid forties. So he actually matched Chris

338
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Speaker 1: Thompson with three three targets and three catches. And you know,

339
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Speaker 1: typically Adrian Puston's a liability in a full PPR format

340
00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:15,280
Speaker 1: like DraftKings, but you know, if we can bank on

341
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Speaker 1: two to four receptions this week and possibly twenty or

342
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Speaker 1: more carries, he's in a smash spot at five K.

343
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Speaker 1: So I'm pretty high on AP this week and Leonard Fournette.

344
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Speaker 1: As always, I think he's pretty overlooked at the low

345
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Speaker 1: seven k range at Atlanta. He's coming off a season

346
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Speaker 1: high eighty nine percent of routes run. He always has

347
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Speaker 1: the potential for you know, six or more catches, but

348
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Speaker 1: for some reason, Garnerment she doesn't like to dump it

349
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Speaker 1: off as much as Nick Foles. But he has that

350
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Speaker 1: potential this week, and he's due for touchdown aggression. You know,

351
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Speaker 1: unlike Alvin Kamara who has to deal with Latavius Murray,

352
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Speaker 1: Drew Brees sneaking in from the one and Taysom Hill

353
00:16:50,640 --> 00:16:53,960
Speaker 1: bullshit around the goal line. You know, Landa Fournette's is

354
00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:56,600
Speaker 1: the main guy. He's going to get every touch inside

355
00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:59,240
Speaker 1: the red zone. So only three touchdowns on the air

356
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Speaker 1: is a bit outlier. So I think he's due for

357
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Speaker 1: touchdown aggression and I'm looking for him to score this week.

358
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Speaker 1: So at seventy two hundred, I'll have a ton of

359
00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:09,959
Speaker 1: exposure on for Nette Raymond.

360
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Speaker 2: Who do you like.

361
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Speaker 3: Going back to the Stea Hawk Cardinal game.

362
00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:16,240
Speaker 4: I think I think that game is going to be

363
00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:19,639
Speaker 4: a pretty high scoring game. I also like Kenyan Drake

364
00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:23,359
Speaker 4: again this week. Now he didn't he didn't catch it

365
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Speaker 4: pass last week. He obviously got the four rushing touchdowns,

366
00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:28,800
Speaker 4: but he was running a route right on about fifty

367
00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:32,800
Speaker 4: percent of the dropbacks, which he's been in in the

368
00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:35,400
Speaker 4: forty to sixty range over the last three games. So

369
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Speaker 4: I think if this game kind of goes, you know,

370
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Speaker 4: with Arizona down, he'll get more involved in the passing game.

371
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Speaker 4: And Seattle's also been a below average run defense. And

372
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Speaker 4: as far as like on the ground, Drake is getting

373
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Speaker 4: a pretty huge share of the running back carries. David

374
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Speaker 4: Johnson's not mixing in at all that He's got three

375
00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:53,040
Speaker 4: carries last.

376
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Speaker 3: Game, three carries the game before for the game before that.

377
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Speaker 4: So Kenyan Drake eighty three percent of the of the

378
00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:01,960
Speaker 4: cap over the last two weeks, eighty one percent over

379
00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:04,880
Speaker 4: the last three weeks. I think he's going to kind

380
00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:07,640
Speaker 4: of be their main means of offense over these last

381
00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:11,359
Speaker 4: couple of games of the season. You know, he's going

382
00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:12,720
Speaker 4: to kind of be that focal point that we saw

383
00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:15,159
Speaker 4: against San Francisco and Murray in the past game.

384
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Speaker 3: We're going to kind of feed off that, all right.

385
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Speaker 2: So there are two guys I like a decent amount

386
00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:22,040
Speaker 2: and yeah, Joe Mixon. I'm with Pete on that one.

387
00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:24,760
Speaker 2: For a guy who's having what feels like a total

388
00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:27,760
Speaker 2: shit burger of a season, he's still like pacing for

389
00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:31,199
Speaker 2: around like fourteen hundred scrimmage yards, which is, you know,

390
00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:34,320
Speaker 2: basically what he did last year, and you know he's

391
00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:37,600
Speaker 2: doing it in far worse circumstances. So like his situation

392
00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:41,959
Speaker 2: and then mark Ingram, I think people are just relatively

393
00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:45,000
Speaker 2: low on him in general because he's a decent pass catcher,

394
00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:47,920
Speaker 2: but he's not getting pass catching opportunities in his offense

395
00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:51,359
Speaker 2: this year, and he's you know, being vultured with a

396
00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:54,520
Speaker 2: lot of rushing production by Lamar Jackson. But he's still

397
00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:57,280
Speaker 2: getting a ton of goal line carries and also some

398
00:18:57,359 --> 00:19:01,120
Speaker 2: red zone targets too, So I mean, how many more

399
00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:03,480
Speaker 2: touchdowns does this guy need to score before you know,

400
00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:06,160
Speaker 2: he starts getting some respect. But you know, I think

401
00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:10,440
Speaker 2: a good matchup against Cleveland. Cleveland I believe ranks number

402
00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:14,920
Speaker 2: twenty eight in PFF rush grade on defense, and the

403
00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:18,360
Speaker 2: Ravens are obviously prolific running the ball. They run more

404
00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:21,320
Speaker 2: than any other team, and they run more efficiently than

405
00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:23,639
Speaker 2: any other team. So a lot to like about the

406
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Speaker 2: matchup for Ingram on the low end. Peter, you kind

407
00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:29,399
Speaker 2: of tease it earlier in the show. Who are you

408
00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:31,359
Speaker 2: looking to fade? Yeah?

409
00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:35,280
Speaker 5: I think Alvin Kamara is a clear fade at this point,

410
00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:38,320
Speaker 5: and maybe not clear. I have played him a ton

411
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:41,639
Speaker 5: this year, but some pretty compelling evidence against him, and

412
00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:44,000
Speaker 5: we just saw it again on Monday night, ninety seventy

413
00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:47,760
Speaker 5: five hundred. Since that high ankle sprain, he just has

414
00:19:47,800 --> 00:19:50,879
Speaker 5: not been the same player, and obviously a long stretch

415
00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:55,119
Speaker 5: without touchdowns, but yeah, it's seventy five hundred. I think

416
00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:58,360
Speaker 5: there's more compelling options, and I love Alvin Kamara as

417
00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:01,160
Speaker 5: a player. I think you know, once he gets right,

418
00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:03,199
Speaker 5: he's still going to be that same electric back, but

419
00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:05,720
Speaker 5: we just haven't seen that burst and just the eye

420
00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:09,440
Speaker 5: test last night on Monday was was not good for

421
00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:12,680
Speaker 5: Alvin Kamarrow. So I think I'm comfortable fading him even

422
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:14,679
Speaker 5: with his workload. I know he's rating well and we

423
00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:16,920
Speaker 5: have a high projection on him, but yeah, I think

424
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:18,160
Speaker 5: he's a pretty clear fate.

425
00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:21,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, Pete, I'm with you there. My notes, so Kamara

426
00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:23,560
Speaker 2: is the guy that I wrote in the outline that

427
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:26,160
Speaker 2: I wanted to fade, and my notes are twenty seventeen

428
00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:29,600
Speaker 2: and eighteen isn't walking through that door, which you know

429
00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:33,760
Speaker 2: it seems fairly obvious at this point, but yeah, Kamara

430
00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:37,160
Speaker 2: has really underwhelmed, and especially if you think of him

431
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,560
Speaker 2: relative like even in season long leagu's relative to what

432
00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:41,760
Speaker 2: you would have had to invest in him. You know,

433
00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:44,879
Speaker 2: you took him instead of Christian McCaffrey, instead of Takuon Barkley,

434
00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:49,480
Speaker 2: instead of Zeke It hasn't worked out for Kamara investors.

435
00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:53,280
Speaker 5: His elusiveness and his mistackles is just way down since

436
00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:55,760
Speaker 5: the high ankle spring. But we've seen that as well

437
00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:58,879
Speaker 5: from Saquon Barkley. I mean, obviously he finally did it

438
00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:02,119
Speaker 5: against the Dolphins, but that's been an injury that I

439
00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 5: think just people. Obviously the players come back a little

440
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:07,600
Speaker 5: earlier than we anticipate, but it's one of those things

441
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:10,239
Speaker 5: that's really tough. And here it is Alvin Kamarapper Pro

442
00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:13,360
Speaker 5: Football Focus. Before the ankle injury is avoided tackle rate

443
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:15,560
Speaker 5: on runs with thirty four percent. His avoided tackle rate

444
00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:18,040
Speaker 5: on catches was twenty seven percent, and then after the

445
00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:21,159
Speaker 5: ankle injury, his avoided tackle rate on runs thirteen percent

446
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:23,479
Speaker 5: versus thirty four which is way down. Avoided tackle rate

447
00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:25,920
Speaker 5: on catch is fourteen percent. That doesn't include the Monday

448
00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:28,359
Speaker 5: night football game either, So there's so many things that

449
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:31,400
Speaker 5: are pointing to him just not being himself and Hinkles

450
00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:33,000
Speaker 5: brains are just really tough to come back from.

451
00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:35,359
Speaker 1: He's pretty high on our models. I haven't updated yet

452
00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:38,040
Speaker 1: after the Monday night game, so after this I'll be updating,

453
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:41,199
Speaker 1: and I'm sure he will see a significant drop everything

454
00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:43,080
Speaker 1: you guys mentioned, And like I said, you know, he

455
00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:45,960
Speaker 1: has some pretty stiff competition around the goal line, so

456
00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:49,159
Speaker 1: that's that's why his touchdowns have been pretty low. The

457
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:51,760
Speaker 1: guy I'm low on this week is Josh Jacobs at

458
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:55,160
Speaker 1: sixty seven hundred at LA and you know he saw

459
00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:58,040
Speaker 1: twenty six touches last week playing through that Andrew shoulder.

460
00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:00,080
Speaker 1: I thought that was you know, showed a lot of

461
00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:03,520
Speaker 1: courage by him. It seems like a pretty painful injury,

462
00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 1: and you figure it was because of the last game

463
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:09,520
Speaker 1: in Oakland. That narrative had something to do with it.

464
00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:11,399
Speaker 1: They had a lead for most of the game, but

465
00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:14,080
Speaker 1: you know, with their playoff chances all but gone, I

466
00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:15,960
Speaker 1: feel like they're going to just take it easy on him.

467
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:18,680
Speaker 1: There's no reason to give him over twenty touches here,

468
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:21,040
Speaker 1: and you know they're five and a half point road dogs.

469
00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:23,359
Speaker 1: This isn't really a game script where you'd want to

470
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:27,280
Speaker 1: play Josh Jacobs. He doesn't have more than three receptions

471
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:29,240
Speaker 1: in any game this year. I don't think that's changing

472
00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:31,639
Speaker 1: this week. So at sixty seven hundred, I'm going to

473
00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:34,080
Speaker 1: be off of Josh Jacobs this week in.

474
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 2: Raybon, what about you?

475
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:39,679
Speaker 3: For me, it's James Connor sixty five hundred. That's just

476
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:40,639
Speaker 3: a little too much for me.

477
00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:45,240
Speaker 4: With Pittsburgh still working in four backs into the rotation,

478
00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:48,080
Speaker 4: you never know how the game script could kind of

479
00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:50,560
Speaker 4: turn out or exactly how they're going to use those guys.

480
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:54,280
Speaker 4: Benny Snail took a couple of goal line snaps last week,

481
00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 4: nothing to show for it, But I think it's kind

482
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:00,720
Speaker 4: of a slippery slope with Connor over that that that

483
00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:02,879
Speaker 4: six k mark, and he's.

484
00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:04,680
Speaker 3: In a pretty substantial committee.

485
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:06,800
Speaker 4: And then you have the Jets, who they're banged up

486
00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:10,919
Speaker 4: on defense, but the Steelers they're not the Ravens as

487
00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:13,440
Speaker 4: far as running the football, and the Jets still ranked

488
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 4: number two in in run defense DVOA. So I think

489
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 4: it's a it's a tougher matchup than I want at

490
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:23,119
Speaker 4: that price, and four backs working in they're just like

491
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:26,720
Speaker 4: a lot of volatility. Excuse me that, I think something

492
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 4: could go wrong where Connor you know, misses out on

493
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:31,919
Speaker 4: a touchdown or something like that, or just gets scripted

494
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:33,919
Speaker 4: out of the game, or they're using Benny Snow to

495
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:35,720
Speaker 4: kill Quack or so. And he's also been an in

496
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 4: game injury as so fading him at sixty five.

497
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:41,520
Speaker 2: All right, Sean, give us the running back prop.

498
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:44,639
Speaker 1: So we're gonna go with Kenny on Drake total rushing

499
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:50,200
Speaker 1: and receiving yards at Seattle. I have it over under man.

500
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,359
Speaker 1: This is a tough one seventy six and a half

501
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:55,480
Speaker 1: and it's I mean, it's pretty incredible that DJ's he

502
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 1: seems to be relatively healthy and just you know, two

503
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:00,760
Speaker 1: three touches the game kind of guy. When's the last

504
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:05,119
Speaker 1: time we've seen a top five pick just get you know,

505
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:06,160
Speaker 1: demoted like this?

506
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 2: Larry Johnson, Yeah, Larry Johnson with uh it was Jamal Charles, Oh.

507
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:13,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

508
00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:15,320
Speaker 1: That was back when you would just you would just

509
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 1: be drafting the Chiefs running back. It didn't really matter

510
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 1: what it was.

511
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, so.

512
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:23,520
Speaker 5: That was what twenty years ago. A great question on

513
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:25,600
Speaker 5: the prop. I think Drake's a good one. I need

514
00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 5: to look into Seattle's injuries. They had a lot of

515
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:30,160
Speaker 5: guys on defense out last week, and I also saw

516
00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:33,359
Speaker 5: Bobby Wagner on the ground. I don't Oh yeah, if

517
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:36,119
Speaker 5: that's something you know that I really want to dig into.

518
00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 5: So I'll take over. I guess given all the potential entries,

519
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:42,800
Speaker 5: but I would love to take under if I knew

520
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 5: Seattle's defense was getting healthier. But that's something a monitor

521
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:47,879
Speaker 5: like Bobby Wagner would be a huge impact.

522
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:51,199
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're saying his ankle injury is not considered serious.

523
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 5: Reverse.

524
00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:57,520
Speaker 2: I'll take the under, but just barely.

525
00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:00,399
Speaker 4: And I'm going over. I think this is be a

526
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:03,480
Speaker 4: back and forth, high scoring game. The over tends to

527
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 4: hit when Seattle's at home a lot more. I think

528
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:09,560
Speaker 4: this is one where you know, it's just going to

529
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 4: be a game where Seattle was going to be able

530
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:12,640
Speaker 4: to put up points in Arizona.

531
00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 3: It's going to be an uptempo game. And Drake has

532
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:15,880
Speaker 3: looked like their best.

533
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:18,159
Speaker 4: Back since the moment he came to the team, and

534
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:20,920
Speaker 4: I think, especially after this game, they're just going to

535
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 4: keep feeding him twenty two carries out of the twenty

536
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,840
Speaker 4: five backfield carrieres and he's still running around half the

537
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:28,159
Speaker 4: backfield routes and probably would run more if there was

538
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 4: a heavier passing script as well.

539
00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:32,880
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about the wide receivers. The guys

540
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:36,120
Speaker 2: at the top of our rankings, Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins

541
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:39,920
Speaker 2: again playing on Saturday, and then Julio Jones going against

542
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:44,119
Speaker 2: the Jacksonville Jaguars. Pete, who are you relatively high on?

543
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 5: He just talked about Julio Jones really encouraging week last

544
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 5: week with Calvin Ridley obviously out, and this Jacksonville team

545
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:53,920
Speaker 5: has just been atrocious. So I did mention Devonte Freeman either.

546
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:57,200
Speaker 5: I think basically all the Falcons are really really strong plays.

547
00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 5: This Jacksonville team has just been so so bad. And

548
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 5: now I don't know if you guys saw that story

549
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:05,080
Speaker 5: that came out there how they were requiring people to

550
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:06,679
Speaker 5: do all their medical stuff with the team and that

551
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:09,680
Speaker 5: was against the CBA rules. And there's just a million

552
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 5: red flags with this Jacksonville team. So I'm high on

553
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 5: all the Falcons, and I think Julio sets up extremely

554
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:19,160
Speaker 5: well Obviously, his price tag came up after a really

555
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 5: big game, but really encouraging just spot for him last week,

556
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 5: specifically the twenty targets. I mean that is vintage Julio Jones,

557
00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:31,400
Speaker 5: and I think Atlanta will do their best to get

558
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 5: him involved again as well. Obviously, of Michael Thomas, he's

559
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,120
Speaker 5: really expensive, but I think he's fine. The one guy

560
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:40,199
Speaker 5: I am willing to invest in in the Chargers offense

561
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,800
Speaker 5: is Keenan Allen. I think he's really a nice price

562
00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:46,960
Speaker 5: tag and saw ten targets, gotten eyeballs for ninety nine yards,

563
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:49,240
Speaker 5: so on DraftKings, you know, he goes for eighteen point

564
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 5: nine points, but it was so close to just a

565
00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 5: really really big game. If I'm going cheaper, I like

566
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 5: Mike Williams as well. And then someone that I'm targeting

567
00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 5: that I think might be a slight pay up to

568
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 5: be conturing spot than Draft Kings is Terry McLaurin against

569
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:05,919
Speaker 5: the Giants. Obviously, the Giants have been tanking and releasing guys,

570
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:09,199
Speaker 5: and McLaurin has as much upside as any player. He's

571
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:11,640
Speaker 5: probably top ten upside receiver in the NFL right now

572
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:15,240
Speaker 5: for me, so he's someone I'm also targeting in tournaments.

573
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:16,160
Speaker 2: Sean, what about you?

574
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:18,640
Speaker 1: So you know last week I was I was high

575
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 1: on Coral and Sutton this time last week, but once

576
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:23,199
Speaker 1: I saw how much snow there was gonna be, I

577
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:25,480
Speaker 1: backed off a bit, but he still managed to put

578
00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:28,119
Speaker 1: up a pretty solid game. Four catches, seventy nine yards

579
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:30,919
Speaker 1: in the snow. This week, he's had home against the

580
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:34,920
Speaker 1: Lions sixty two hundred. They've been torched by number one

581
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:38,320
Speaker 1: wide receivers lately, so I'm gonna have a ton of him.

582
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 1: He's my wide receiver ten to start the week, and

583
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:44,119
Speaker 1: he's he's only the twelfth most expensive white out on

584
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 1: the main slite and there's you know, a ton of

585
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:48,960
Speaker 1: wide receivers not on the main slight, so he's pretty

586
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:50,639
Speaker 1: cheap there. I think we could see a ceiling game

587
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 1: from him this week, and the other just GPP dart through.

588
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:57,200
Speaker 1: I'm gonna make is John Ross at Miami at forty

589
00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 1: two hundred. Of My medium projections him are pretty low

590
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:03,200
Speaker 1: right now. You know, three catches for forty yards. He's

591
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:06,880
Speaker 1: not a recommended season long start or anything, but he's

592
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:10,360
Speaker 1: great for GVPS. We saw him ease back in two

593
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:12,440
Speaker 1: weeks ago at thirty eight percent of routes run and

594
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 1: last week is up to fifty eight. So if you

595
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 1: could get anywhere near the eighty percent we saw before

596
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:20,040
Speaker 1: he was placed on the IR, I mean, he has

597
00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 1: massive potential in this matchup at Miami. So I'll have

598
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 1: a few flyers on him at forty two hundred.

599
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 5: That's a great call. Sorry to interject, I just wanted

600
00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 5: to talk because I was actually gonna ask you guys

601
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:31,479
Speaker 5: about John Ross. I saw the routes run went up,

602
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:34,080
Speaker 5: but the snap count went down. Any concerns with that, Sean.

603
00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:37,200
Speaker 5: I know that obviously they ran the ball effectively, but

604
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 5: I was a little concerned to see the snaps come down.

605
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 5: Maybe they once they're out of the game. He wasn't

606
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 5: on the field as much. I'm not sure.

607
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll have to see. I'll have to look into that.

608
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:47,720
Speaker 1: If you know, he played less later in the game.

609
00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:49,840
Speaker 1: But I mean, I'm assuming they just have him in

610
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:52,880
Speaker 1: passing situations as all, which is all we care about.

611
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 1: We don't need him run blocking or anything. So maybe

612
00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:58,080
Speaker 1: they're just saving him for passing plays, which is even better.

613
00:28:58,120 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 1: But like I said, I mean, he was running eight

614
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:02,760
Speaker 1: percent of routes early in the season, so you have

615
00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 1: to figure it's just going to keep trending up to

616
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 1: close out the season. Yeah.

617
00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 5: I love that call. Fastest guy in the field, massive up.

618
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I totally agree there with John Ross Raymond. Who

619
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 2: do you like this week?

620
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 4: I think there's only one answer to this question, and

621
00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:16,880
Speaker 4: that's Devonte Parker.

622
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 3: It's it's it's every week with this guy.

623
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 4: The one week he didn't put up double digit DraftKings

624
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:25,800
Speaker 4: points he got hurt, he's done it every week since

625
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 4: week number four he's got He's gotten the double digits.

626
00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:32,240
Speaker 4: He's had upside ceiling games, he's had multiple touchdown games,

627
00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 4: double digit targets in you know, four of his last

628
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 4: six games, really four of his last five if you

629
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 4: take out the one he got hurt in. It's it's

630
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 4: been every week since since Preston Williams went out, Especially

631
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 4: his target share, it's been twenty two percent or more

632
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:51,000
Speaker 4: in every week except the one he got taken out

633
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:53,680
Speaker 4: by until last and last week, So four of the

634
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 4: last six he's over twenty percent and twenty two p

635
00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 4: and Yeah, double digit Draftings points every week.

636
00:29:59,400 --> 00:29:59,760
Speaker 3: Bengals.

637
00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:04,040
Speaker 4: The Ryan Fitzpatrick highly correlated with Parker because that's the

638
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:06,480
Speaker 4: guy he's thrown downfield air yards to a lot of

639
00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 4: the other guys. Albert Wilson more of a underneath gadget

640
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 4: guy where they throw their running.

641
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:15,240
Speaker 3: Backs a lot, So love Parker this week for another smash.

642
00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 1: Is there any coincidence that three Adam Gase alumni are

643
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 1: tearing up right now? Ryan Tannehill, Devonte Parker and Kenny

644
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 1: on Drake and Le'Veon Bell sucks. I don't know, man,

645
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:27,960
Speaker 1: that's a.

646
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:30,440
Speaker 5: Great tweet, but I love it out there when viral

647
00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 5: just about those exact guys. Oh yeah, yeah, that was

648
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 5: I agree with you one hundred percent on great Minds

649
00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 5: think alike.

650
00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:40,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, no kidding credits a love it town, I didn't

651
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:42,000
Speaker 1: see that, but a good call of it.

652
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:44,640
Speaker 5: It's funny both brought.

653
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 2: Up great all right. One guy I'm relatively high on

654
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 2: is Julian Edelman. I know he's dealing with injuries and

655
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:53,080
Speaker 2: coming off a bad performance last week, but in the

656
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:56,240
Speaker 2: post Josh Gordon era, he's just been getting a ton

657
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 2: of targets, been a top five wide receiver, and most

658
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:03,160
Speaker 2: importantly this week, he avoids t Davius White, who rarely

659
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 2: goes into the slot. So I think it's still a

660
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:10,560
Speaker 2: good situation for Edelman and looking for him to bounce back. Pete,

661
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:12,080
Speaker 2: who are you relatively low on?

662
00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, going back to the Dallas guys, I think I

663
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:17,800
Speaker 5: like galloped the most and Amri is certainly an interesting

664
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 5: price tie. But the splits for Dak and Amaris at

665
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:25,120
Speaker 5: home is massive. So going on the road here, I

666
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 5: hate to speak badly about my boy a Mari, but

667
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:31,680
Speaker 5: I think he's probably a fade for me. I think

668
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 5: there's some other spots here just in general. We'll see

669
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 5: how the markets move. But you know, I love the

670
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 5: Courtland Sutton call. I was really disappointed to see Kenny

671
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 5: Galladay have a bad game last week. I'd be curious

672
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:47,320
Speaker 5: to see how Chris Harris plays in that game. So Galladay,

673
00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 5: someone I'm normally really high on, I might be a

674
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 5: little bit lower on the market right now on him.

675
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:54,400
Speaker 5: And then one guy I want to get your guys

676
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:58,000
Speaker 5: opinion on that is really interesting to project for me

677
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 5: right now is aj Brown, who it's getting really really

678
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:04,640
Speaker 5: expensive and after the performance by the Saints, I'm a

679
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:06,880
Speaker 5: little nervous about him. I puted him a ton last week,

680
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:09,479
Speaker 5: which is great, but this week he might be a

681
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 5: fade for me. Those are three players that are really talented.

682
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 5: I normally like to play am I crazy on any

683
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 5: one of those guys.

684
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:20,320
Speaker 2: Sean, One, what are your thoughts on AJ Brown? And

685
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:23,320
Speaker 2: then two? Because Pete is off of Amari? Is this

686
00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:24,880
Speaker 2: the week that he goes off for?

687
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 1: Right? I mean the Eagles are a past final defense,

688
00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:32,320
Speaker 1: but you know, I consider Repete the Amari Truther, so

689
00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 1: I'll just fade along with them. But yeah, I agree

690
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 1: with AJ Brown call as well. He's seven K, now,

691
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:41,160
Speaker 1: so he's up there, and you know, like we saw

692
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 1: last night, the Saints defense is for real. I mean

693
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 1: it's tough, but I'm sure AJ Brown would be over

694
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 1: owned at seven kN. There's plenty of guys just under

695
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 1: seven K that I like more of this week. So

696
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:53,600
Speaker 1: he's He's a pretty easy fade for me this week,

697
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 1: even though he does look like the real deal. I

698
00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 1: mean next year he could be wide receiver one heading

699
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:01,959
Speaker 1: into drafts. So love the help with this matchup' I'll

700
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 1: be fading him.

701
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:06,040
Speaker 2: As well, all right, Sean, who are you relatively low on?

702
00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 1: I'm pretty low on well, I wouldn't say low on,

703
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 1: but Tyler Lockett at seventy six hundred at home against

704
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:16,400
Speaker 1: the Cardinals. I mean it's a great matchup. He's coming

705
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:18,800
Speaker 1: off a massive game. But you know, he's a high

706
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 1: variance player where we kind of expect these bike games.

707
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 1: And looking back to last year, he's had three games

708
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:27,440
Speaker 1: over twenty DK points and he's averaged almost six points

709
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 1: less than his average the next game. So he's just

710
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 1: the guy where you just want to sell high. There's

711
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 1: better guys, like I said, in the sub seven K range,

712
00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:39,479
Speaker 1: Like I rather have a Dj Moore, DeVante Parker, Courtland Sutton,

713
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:42,480
Speaker 1: those types of players, So I won't be spinning up

714
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 1: to get Tyer Lockett's regression game. I think he'll be

715
00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 1: pretty highly on this week because of the matchup and

716
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:51,760
Speaker 1: last week he just tore it up, So he's a

717
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 1: sell high guy for me this week. Way too expensive

718
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:54,720
Speaker 1: seventy six hundred.

719
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:55,760
Speaker 2: What about you?

720
00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 4: I think AJ Brown definitely is a fade at Marshall Lattimore.

721
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 3: We've seen some of these shadow matchups just turn out

722
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:02,280
Speaker 3: really poorly.

723
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 4: Uh lately, you know Amari with with Jaywin Ramsey last

724
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:08,759
Speaker 4: week and uh and Marshall, t Y Hilton, Marshawn Lattimore.

725
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:11,080
Speaker 4: You know they said Hilton was healthy, and I think

726
00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 4: part of the reason he struggled was just you know,

727
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:14,359
Speaker 4: getting caught up.

728
00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:16,880
Speaker 3: So do not like those those guys.

729
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 4: Odell Beckham is another guy really the the all the

730
00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 4: Browns wide receivers going up against the Ravens. Ravens have

731
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 4: three really good cornerbacks and Jimmy Smith, Marlon Humphrey and

732
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:32,480
Speaker 4: uh and Marcus Peters. Now, so this could be a

733
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:36,480
Speaker 4: game where we see a ton of Kareem Hunt and

734
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:38,360
Speaker 4: and Nick Chubb getting a little more involved in the

735
00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:40,840
Speaker 4: passing game. His his targets have been going down lately,

736
00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:44,319
Speaker 4: but this this Baltimore team can cover. So I don't

737
00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 4: really want any part of any of the Browns offense

738
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:47,760
Speaker 4: in this one.

739
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:49,959
Speaker 2: All right, One guy I am looking to stay away

740
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:52,879
Speaker 2: from off of the main slate, Bershaw Perryman. I mean

741
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:56,040
Speaker 2: it's it's maybe like talking out of the other side

742
00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:57,480
Speaker 2: of my mouth and that I say. I really like

743
00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 2: Jamis Winston this week, but you know, saw Perry have

744
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 2: to admit, great matchup, great offense, but an inconsistent producer

745
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:07,760
Speaker 2: for the past half decade, and especially on a shorter

746
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:12,080
Speaker 2: slate for the Saturday games. I'm imagining he will have

747
00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:14,560
Speaker 2: a lot of ownership, so he would be someone I

748
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:18,239
Speaker 2: might be looking to stay away from. Sean give us

749
00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:19,279
Speaker 2: the wide receiver prop.

750
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:23,360
Speaker 1: So I was taking some notes when Pete Mencham earlier.

751
00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 1: He likes him. But Terry McLaurin receiving yards at home

752
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 1: against the Giants. He's always a trie guy to project

753
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:33,680
Speaker 1: because you know Haskins has been so brutal, But you

754
00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:36,239
Speaker 1: know Haskins, he broke out Laws game. He looked pretty good.

755
00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:40,000
Speaker 1: So I'm trying to get too high on McLaurin, but

756
00:35:40,120 --> 00:35:42,360
Speaker 1: I have him at fifty nine and a half receiving yards.

757
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:44,960
Speaker 1: So where do you guys stand on that?

758
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:48,759
Speaker 5: Pound the over? Absolutely pound the over, and he is

759
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:51,440
Speaker 5: a bad his means going to be higher than his medians,

760
00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 5: So in a lot of ways I should be taking under,

761
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:56,279
Speaker 5: but I was more impressed to at Haskins. I think

762
00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:59,239
Speaker 5: this is a really really good matchup and McLaurin is

763
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:02,439
Speaker 5: just so tight. I mean, he really just needs one

764
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 5: one catch to bust that. But that's probably a really

765
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:09,800
Speaker 5: donkey take and why I've dusted it off with Shawn's props.

766
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:12,920
Speaker 5: In general, that's a classic mean versus medium. I think

767
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:16,480
Speaker 5: his means much higher, but his median is probably his lower.

768
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:19,000
Speaker 5: So I'll be a fish and go over to love

769
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:21,400
Speaker 5: them as the tournament play this week. But good, good number.

770
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:23,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have him all over. I have him at

771
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:24,840
Speaker 3: at sixty six.

772
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 4: And when you look at the Redskins, they really, you know,

773
00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:31,160
Speaker 4: to who's a trade Quinn and Paul richardsonner out for

774
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:33,120
Speaker 4: the year. You don't really have a tight end that

775
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:35,760
Speaker 4: catches passes because Jeremy Sprinkle he gets like two targets

776
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:39,240
Speaker 4: a game. And now you have Adrian Peterson, as you mentioned,

777
00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:41,600
Speaker 4: Sean running a lot of the pass routes, and he's

778
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 4: not a guy that I think is going to like

779
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 4: command an above average targets share, so you have the

780
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:49,040
Speaker 4: situation where targets kind of just get funneled to McLaurin.

781
00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:51,439
Speaker 4: And I believe he entered last week leading the league

782
00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 4: in air yards. I got to check if he still does.

783
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:56,719
Speaker 4: But you know, like Pete said, he all he needs

784
00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 4: is one catch. And when you lead the league in

785
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:01,800
Speaker 4: are yards, you have about forty percent. And the Giants

786
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 4: they don't have Janol Rick Jenkins anymore, so they don't

787
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 4: really have anyone that could cover.

788
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:08,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, Raymond, I am right, there with you exactly. I

789
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:11,480
Speaker 2: have him for sixty six point two yards. I mean,

790
00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:13,800
Speaker 2: the thing is so yeah, they touch an Orris Jenkins,

791
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 2: but it's not like he was playing all that well

792
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:18,960
Speaker 2: this season anyway. And I mean the three cornerbacks that

793
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:22,000
Speaker 2: they have left, DeAndre Baker, a rookie who is just

794
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:26,920
Speaker 2: getting flamed, Sam Bill a second year supplemental draft pick

795
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 2: who got no action last year and has been really

796
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:32,520
Speaker 2: inconsistent this year, and then Corey Ballentine playing in the

797
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:36,279
Speaker 2: slot as a fill in who's just been flamed repeatedly.

798
00:37:36,600 --> 00:37:39,000
Speaker 2: Like this, this is the worst secondary, or at least

799
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:42,200
Speaker 2: the worst trio of cornerbacks in the league right now.

800
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:45,360
Speaker 2: And that's including the travesty that is trotted out in

801
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 2: Miami every week. Like these guys somehow are worse than

802
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:54,200
Speaker 2: what Miami is doing. So I definitely like the matchup

803
00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 2: for Terry McLaurin.

804
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:58,200
Speaker 5: Just on that. I was just looking at his game log,

805
00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:00,920
Speaker 5: so six out of fourteen times gone over that number

806
00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 5: one he was just right short. But he's at eight

807
00:38:03,239 --> 00:38:07,600
Speaker 5: hundred and thirty three yards in fourteen games. So it's this,

808
00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 5: This is like the epitome of the mean Verus Median

809
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:15,080
Speaker 5: averaging fifty nine sixty yards a game, but his median

810
00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:17,960
Speaker 5: outcome has actually been worse. So really sharp line, Sean

811
00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 5: and those of you betting props and thinking about this stuff,

812
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:22,919
Speaker 5: it's really important to distinguish those two things.

813
00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:26,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, last night I did my player prop was ted

814
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 1: gain under twenty nine and a half yards, and I go

815
00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:32,240
Speaker 1: in depth on exactly what you said. The median projection

816
00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 1: room was like thirty one and the median I simmed

817
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:38,120
Speaker 1: it out was like twenty five. So yeah, well, hopefully

818
00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:40,640
Speaker 1: we can do more pieces on that going forward. But

819
00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:43,480
Speaker 1: great point. The mean Verus median is definitely in play

820
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:44,760
Speaker 1: with a guy like mccorn.

821
00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:47,880
Speaker 2: All right, let's look at the tight ends. The big

822
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:51,520
Speaker 2: three at the top of our rankings. No surprise, Kelsey,

823
00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:54,720
Speaker 2: Kittle and Ertz. Of course, Kelsey is playing on Sunday

824
00:38:54,800 --> 00:38:58,200
Speaker 2: Night football, Kittle is playing on Saturday night. So Ertz

825
00:38:58,239 --> 00:39:01,040
Speaker 2: is the only one of those three on the main slate. Pete,

826
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:04,000
Speaker 2: is there another guy that you would want to include

827
00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:05,800
Speaker 2: in the top tier of Titans this week?

828
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 5: I think in terms of points per dollar, there's a

829
00:39:08,239 --> 00:39:10,920
Speaker 5: clear standout and he's been in that tier all year,

830
00:39:11,239 --> 00:39:13,880
Speaker 5: and that's Austin Hooper. Obviously it was hurt, but I

831
00:39:13,920 --> 00:39:16,759
Speaker 5: do think he's someone we can look to. You know,

832
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 5: the targets have been down since coming out the entry.

833
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:21,120
Speaker 5: Julio soaked up so much target share, but man, this

834
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:24,759
Speaker 5: Jacksonville team is really really bad. Darren Waller also in

835
00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:28,160
Speaker 5: that same kind of tier. I've been so high all

836
00:39:28,200 --> 00:39:30,479
Speaker 5: three of those guys that worked out really well last year.

837
00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:34,560
Speaker 5: This year it's worked out decently. I think people it

838
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:38,000
Speaker 5: wasn't working out initially, but the recent surge by Kelsey

839
00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:40,880
Speaker 5: and Kittle has been pretty nice, especially in like the

840
00:39:40,920 --> 00:39:45,000
Speaker 5: shorter drafts given Kamara has been kind of a bust

841
00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:48,640
Speaker 5: and sat Quan hasn't had a great year. So in dfs,

842
00:39:48,719 --> 00:39:50,760
Speaker 5: you know, I think it's site specific. We've been loading

843
00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:53,799
Speaker 5: up on the top tight ends, on Fandel and then

844
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:56,640
Speaker 5: on draftings it's been really about nailing the value guys.

845
00:39:56,680 --> 00:40:00,040
Speaker 5: So this week specifically, I think Cooper is the the

846
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:02,719
Speaker 5: best point for dollar playing the guy I'm highest on relatively.

847
00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:05,560
Speaker 5: But yeah, there's a lot of compelling options and tight

848
00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:07,319
Speaker 5: end has been a good position down the stretch here

849
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 5: this cupical season.

850
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:09,279
Speaker 2: Sean, who do you like?

851
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:11,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm right along Pete on Hooper, I mean when

852
00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 1: I saw he was forty four hundred, that was Christmas,

853
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:17,000
Speaker 1: you know, a week early for me. You know, he's

854
00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 1: in my top three, and yet he's priced. I think

855
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:22,839
Speaker 1: he's like the sixth or seventh most expensive tight end.

856
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:25,080
Speaker 1: You know, he was eased back in a bit two

857
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:27,439
Speaker 1: weeks ago at sixty nine percent of routes, and last

858
00:40:27,480 --> 00:40:29,440
Speaker 1: week he jumped back up to seventy eight, which is

859
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:32,880
Speaker 1: pretty much in line his rate you know, earlier in

860
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:34,759
Speaker 1: the season when he was healthy. So I think we

861
00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:37,279
Speaker 1: can expect Hooper to you know, aggress to what we

862
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:39,520
Speaker 1: saw early in the season. And at the very end

863
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:41,879
Speaker 1: of that game, you know, Julio Jones got that game

864
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:44,439
Speaker 1: wing touchdown, but it's actually Hooper who made a shoe

865
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 1: string catch that they actually overturned. But if they let

866
00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:50,120
Speaker 1: him let that touchdown stand, I think his price would

867
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:52,839
Speaker 1: be five hundred dollars more expensive. So that's a case

868
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:55,880
Speaker 1: of I think people overlooking you know, touchdown luck. So

869
00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:59,520
Speaker 1: especially at home against the Jaguars, they've been pretty bruel

870
00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:02,120
Speaker 1: against tight end slightly, so love Hooper at forty four

871
00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:04,840
Speaker 1: hundred this week. I mean, I'm going to have maximum

872
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:08,040
Speaker 1: exposure on at that price, there really isn't much reason

873
00:41:08,120 --> 00:41:11,920
Speaker 1: to explore other options when he's that cheap Raybond.

874
00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:12,840
Speaker 2: Who do you have your eye on?

875
00:41:13,239 --> 00:41:15,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love I love Hooper and I love the

876
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 3: guy right under him.

877
00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:19,399
Speaker 4: More of a kind of pivot in GPPs, I think,

878
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:22,719
Speaker 4: because obviously Hooper, you know, at only two hundred dollars

879
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:24,160
Speaker 4: more than Jacob Hollister.

880
00:41:24,080 --> 00:41:25,520
Speaker 3: Is the play.

881
00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:28,560
Speaker 4: But I also think Hollis there is in a pretty

882
00:41:28,560 --> 00:41:30,759
Speaker 4: big spot. You know, if you look at you know,

883
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:33,880
Speaker 4: the Cardinals against tight ends, right back to it with

884
00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:37,960
Speaker 4: Ricky Seals Jones, you know, catching catching one last week.

885
00:41:37,960 --> 00:41:41,480
Speaker 5: Hashtag revenge, hashtag narrative, street float.

886
00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:45,359
Speaker 4: Hashtag flow chart, just everything possible. Really, the only tight

887
00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:48,359
Speaker 4: ends that haven't hit against Arizona are these like washed

888
00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:52,160
Speaker 4: up guys like Tyler Eiffert in sad to say vance McDonald,

889
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:54,960
Speaker 4: I don't I don't know if he's I don't know

890
00:41:55,000 --> 00:41:58,320
Speaker 4: what's wrong with him, But yeah, howis there is essentially

891
00:41:58,600 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 4: no worse than the fourth option on Seattle Carson. You

892
00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:04,640
Speaker 4: could kind of consider him the third depending on the game,

893
00:42:04,680 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 4: but I think in this spot you're going to see

894
00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 4: Russell Wilson target Hollister because and he's targeted Hollister a

895
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:14,719
Speaker 4: lot in he's we's twelve point five percent since he

896
00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 4: took over as a starting tight end. And we also

897
00:42:17,200 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 4: remember Will Disley was you know, outperforming expectations in essentially

898
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:24,160
Speaker 4: their number three option when he was healthy as well.

899
00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:27,760
Speaker 4: So I think that this is a good spot for Hollister.

900
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:29,840
Speaker 4: But again, he's not as good a value as Hooper.

901
00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:31,799
Speaker 4: But I think Hooper will still get a lot more

902
00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:34,560
Speaker 4: ownership just because there's no way he should be priced

903
00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:36,560
Speaker 4: under Jack Doyle, Like I don't I don't even know

904
00:42:36,560 --> 00:42:37,200
Speaker 4: how that happens.

905
00:42:37,360 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 2: Right. One guy I'm relatively high on is Ertz, and

906
00:42:40,040 --> 00:42:42,200
Speaker 2: I mean, I know we have him in the top three,

907
00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 2: but it's it's my ranking that I think, Like I

908
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:47,279
Speaker 2: have him number three, and I honestly might move him

909
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:49,359
Speaker 2: up to number two, Like I need to think about

910
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:51,759
Speaker 2: this more and kind of crush numbers. But in his

911
00:42:52,200 --> 00:42:56,399
Speaker 2: six games without al Sean or the like, including games

912
00:42:56,400 --> 00:43:01,840
Speaker 2: to which Alshon played but left early, Ertz has had sixteen, seven, eleven, fourteen,

913
00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:05,319
Speaker 2: thirteen and ten targets, Like he's just getting so much

914
00:43:05,480 --> 00:43:08,000
Speaker 2: usage when al Sean is not on the field. And

915
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:10,960
Speaker 2: then he's going against the Cowboys who are pretty poor

916
00:43:11,160 --> 00:43:15,080
Speaker 2: in tight end defense. So I like Ertz quite a

917
00:43:15,080 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 2: bit this week, Peter, who are you relatively long?

918
00:43:18,840 --> 00:43:20,840
Speaker 5: When you start going through some of the guys just

919
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:24,399
Speaker 5: in terms of raw projections and their price. You know,

920
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:28,000
Speaker 5: Jack Doyle coming off a bad performance might be someone

921
00:43:28,080 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 5: just because he's right next to us and Hooper. Mark

922
00:43:31,080 --> 00:43:34,200
Speaker 5: Andrews is a really expensive tag. I know, it's you know,

923
00:43:34,239 --> 00:43:37,040
Speaker 5: a decent matchup and he's been efficient. It's tough. I mean,

924
00:43:37,200 --> 00:43:40,400
Speaker 5: I think you want to prioritize someone like Hooper and

925
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:43,680
Speaker 5: the guys we just talked about. And really, the one

926
00:43:43,680 --> 00:43:45,840
Speaker 5: thing that I think would be a huge mistake this

927
00:43:45,880 --> 00:43:48,879
Speaker 5: week that we've seen some of the recreational guys make

928
00:43:49,040 --> 00:43:52,319
Speaker 5: is just absolutely punting at tight end with guys who

929
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:54,359
Speaker 5: aren't going to see the volume. We have a ton

930
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:57,480
Speaker 5: of compelling options. There's like ten to fifteen players that

931
00:43:57,520 --> 00:43:59,520
Speaker 5: we know are going to see a lot of volumes.

932
00:43:59,600 --> 00:44:02,040
Speaker 5: So the big mistake would be, you know, paying down

933
00:44:02,120 --> 00:44:04,480
Speaker 5: for like you know, the nick Finettes of the world

934
00:44:04,920 --> 00:44:05,480
Speaker 5: on the main.

935
00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 2: Slid Sean, who are you looking to fade? Yeah?

936
00:44:09,280 --> 00:44:12,319
Speaker 1: Pet mentioned but Mark Andrews at fifty nine hundred is

937
00:44:12,320 --> 00:44:15,600
Speaker 1: just way too expensive. Obviously he has, you know, the

938
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:18,439
Speaker 1: ceiling to warrant that price, but we haven't really seen

939
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:21,319
Speaker 1: that much lately, and last week it was positive to

940
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:23,359
Speaker 1: see he ran. I think it was a season high

941
00:44:23,440 --> 00:44:26,960
Speaker 1: sixty seven percent of routes run per dropback. Nick Boyle

942
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:29,319
Speaker 1: stayed in block. He didn't run a single route on

943
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:31,680
Speaker 1: THURSDA Night Football. I think that was just more of

944
00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:34,879
Speaker 1: a one game, just a game plan thing. And it's

945
00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:37,440
Speaker 1: going to return to the three headed monster, which you

946
00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:40,279
Speaker 1: know that that SAPs Mark Andrews upside, just the fact

947
00:44:40,320 --> 00:44:43,319
Speaker 1: that they rotate in all three tight ends. So at

948
00:44:43,320 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 1: fifty nine hundred, it's just just way too expensive. There's

949
00:44:46,040 --> 00:44:48,719
Speaker 1: there's a ton of cheap or you know, options in

950
00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:51,040
Speaker 1: the four k range that he mentioned are getting a

951
00:44:51,080 --> 00:44:53,120
Speaker 1: ton of usage, and just there's no reason to spend

952
00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:54,400
Speaker 1: up to get Andrews.

953
00:44:55,239 --> 00:44:57,080
Speaker 2: Ramon, who are you looking to stay away from?

954
00:44:57,680 --> 00:44:59,719
Speaker 4: I think you know, kind of hit on him before

955
00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:02,320
Speaker 4: Jack Doyle. There's no way he should be more expensive

956
00:45:02,320 --> 00:45:04,400
Speaker 4: than Austin Hooper, and I don't think he should be

957
00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:07,839
Speaker 4: more expensive than Hollister, probably not Dallas Goddard either. At

958
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:10,480
Speaker 4: this point, Doyle has always been a very low average

959
00:45:10,520 --> 00:45:12,480
Speaker 4: up to target guy, and now it looks like t

960
00:45:12,640 --> 00:45:15,560
Speaker 4: Y Hilton's going to remain in the lineup. So I'm

961
00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:19,440
Speaker 4: out there pretty late in the Monday night game Carolina.

962
00:45:20,120 --> 00:45:23,440
Speaker 4: As you mentioned, Friedman, they're exploitable on the ground. The

963
00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:26,280
Speaker 4: coach just coming off a game where they got blown

964
00:45:26,320 --> 00:45:28,879
Speaker 4: out and they couldn't really make any hay running the ball.

965
00:45:28,880 --> 00:45:30,880
Speaker 4: Because the Saints have one of the better run defenses,

966
00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:32,960
Speaker 4: I think they're going to kind of relish in the

967
00:45:33,000 --> 00:45:36,160
Speaker 4: opportunity to get back to running the ball home favorite

968
00:45:36,200 --> 00:45:40,359
Speaker 4: against a quarterback making his first start. So fading Jack

969
00:45:40,400 --> 00:45:41,880
Speaker 4: Doyle at forty five hundred.

970
00:45:42,200 --> 00:45:45,000
Speaker 2: All right, Sean, let's close this out with the tight

971
00:45:45,080 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 2: end prop.

972
00:45:46,000 --> 00:45:49,560
Speaker 1: Let's go with Tyler Higbee at San Francisco total receiving

973
00:45:49,640 --> 00:45:54,080
Speaker 1: yards and this is assuming Gerald Ever is out, but

974
00:45:54,160 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 1: I have him at fifty three and a half.

975
00:45:56,520 --> 00:45:59,560
Speaker 2: I'll take the over. And this actually has less to

976
00:45:59,560 --> 00:46:02,320
Speaker 2: do with Gerald Everett and more to do with a

977
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:05,520
Speaker 2: Quiskey Tart, who I think is probably still going to

978
00:46:05,560 --> 00:46:08,920
Speaker 2: be out as of recording. He still hasn't returned to

979
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:12,120
Speaker 2: practice yet and he's the main tight end defender for

980
00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:14,760
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers, and so even though they should

981
00:46:14,760 --> 00:46:18,080
Speaker 2: be getting back Richard Sherman, maybe they will also be

982
00:46:18,120 --> 00:46:20,680
Speaker 2: getting back Kwan Williams in the slot. I don't think

983
00:46:20,680 --> 00:46:22,919
Speaker 2: they're going to get too Quiskey Tart back, so they're

984
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:25,919
Speaker 2: still even though for the season they have been very

985
00:46:26,000 --> 00:46:29,120
Speaker 2: staunch against the tight ends, this week, I think they're

986
00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:32,920
Speaker 2: going to be relatively exploitable. And Higby's just been so

987
00:46:33,120 --> 00:46:36,719
Speaker 2: fantastic without Everett that even if Everett returns, I think

988
00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:40,040
Speaker 2: Higbee is going to be the guy who still ends

989
00:46:40,120 --> 00:46:42,520
Speaker 2: up getting more of the workload. There could be totally

990
00:46:42,600 --> 00:46:45,480
Speaker 2: wrong about that because they've alternated back and forth between

991
00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:47,279
Speaker 2: the titands so hard to know, but I'll take the over.

992
00:46:47,920 --> 00:46:49,120
Speaker 3: So that's a sharp line.

993
00:46:49,120 --> 00:46:52,759
Speaker 4: I actually have it at fifty two aside under and

994
00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:56,120
Speaker 4: the reason I think there's a little more volatility involved

995
00:46:56,160 --> 00:46:58,880
Speaker 4: in this matchup in the last couple so you had

996
00:46:58,920 --> 00:47:02,560
Speaker 4: a matchup against Seattle, who doesn't really get pressure drops

997
00:47:02,560 --> 00:47:04,480
Speaker 4: into like that three deep zone, and you got a

998
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:08,279
Speaker 4: matchup against Dallas who they do get pressure, but at

999
00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:11,160
Speaker 4: the end of the day, they're getting pressure with four

1000
00:47:11,239 --> 00:47:13,880
Speaker 4: more often than not, so they're also kind of dropping

1001
00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:14,759
Speaker 4: back into this zone.

1002
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:17,600
Speaker 3: That you can exploit. The forty nine ers, they.

1003
00:47:17,440 --> 00:47:20,480
Speaker 4: Play a lot, a lot more multiple and they just

1004
00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:24,120
Speaker 4: get a ton of pressure with their D line up front,

1005
00:47:24,200 --> 00:47:26,720
Speaker 4: and so you know that could cause you know, perhaps

1006
00:47:26,800 --> 00:47:29,480
Speaker 4: Higgsby has to stay into block to chip, you know,

1007
00:47:29,520 --> 00:47:31,080
Speaker 4: things that could kind of throw them off his route.

1008
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:33,600
Speaker 4: Perhaps they want to, you know, use him as kind

1009
00:47:33,640 --> 00:47:35,919
Speaker 4: of a decoy after three straight one hundred yard games

1010
00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:36,719
Speaker 4: to kind of free.

1011
00:47:36,560 --> 00:47:39,240
Speaker 3: Up cup Woods or Cooks.

1012
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:43,120
Speaker 4: I just think there's a lot of volatility to it,

1013
00:47:43,200 --> 00:47:46,040
Speaker 4: and this is probably the game where he finally has

1014
00:47:46,080 --> 00:47:48,120
Speaker 4: a little bit of a down game, because even Jared

1015
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:51,000
Speaker 4: Cook going off on San Francisco without Tart, Jared cooks

1016
00:47:51,080 --> 00:47:55,120
Speaker 4: essentially like a He's like a wide receiver almost. I

1017
00:47:55,120 --> 00:47:58,720
Speaker 4: don't think Higby's quite that kind of player. So little

1018
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:00,960
Speaker 4: concerned about the matchup, I'll go.

1019
00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:05,359
Speaker 5: Under as well, no detailed analysis other than Jared Goff

1020
00:48:05,440 --> 00:48:08,400
Speaker 5: on the road is just much worse divisional game, tough opponent.

1021
00:48:09,760 --> 00:48:10,880
Speaker 1: You know, it been great.

1022
00:48:10,960 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 5: We got to ride the cheap price tag and shout

1023
00:48:14,040 --> 00:48:17,000
Speaker 5: out to Sean for that week we I went was

1024
00:48:17,640 --> 00:48:19,440
Speaker 5: very confident in the top three tight ends he'd be

1025
00:48:19,480 --> 00:48:22,480
Speaker 5: ended to be in the top score, which you us

1026
00:48:22,760 --> 00:48:25,600
Speaker 5: that was a legendary call, and uh, I think.

1027
00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:27,560
Speaker 1: I called two. I called two touchdowns though he did

1028
00:48:27,600 --> 00:48:31,240
Speaker 1: it all on you know, receptions and yards being tougher

1029
00:48:31,280 --> 00:48:33,600
Speaker 1: to predict. But I was just joking with that.

1030
00:48:33,719 --> 00:48:38,840
Speaker 5: Got lucky, well humble as always and I'm off hegbeing

1031
00:48:38,920 --> 00:48:42,200
Speaker 5: the RAMS offense. I think on that slate specifically, I'll

1032
00:48:42,560 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 5: burn some more money on OJ Howard.

1033
00:48:45,680 --> 00:48:47,920
Speaker 2: All right. You can follow Sean, Chris, Peter, and me

1034
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:50,680
Speaker 2: in the Action Network app at the Underscore odds maker

1035
00:48:50,760 --> 00:48:53,279
Speaker 2: Chris Raymond, CSU RAM eighty eight and Matt f the

1036
00:48:53,360 --> 00:48:55,520
Speaker 2: Oracle use the app to get real time odds and

1037
00:48:55,560 --> 00:48:57,840
Speaker 2: track your bets for free. That was going to do

1038
00:48:57,880 --> 00:49:00,640
Speaker 2: it for this episode of the Action Network podcast. Check

1039
00:49:00,640 --> 00:49:02,720
Speaker 2: out the rest of our episodes and live shows this week,

1040
00:49:02,840 --> 00:49:05,040
Speaker 2: and please subscribe to and rate and review the show

1041
00:49:05,040 --> 00:49:08,279
Speaker 2: on Apple podcasts, radio dot com or wherever you get

1042
00:49:08,280 --> 00:49:15,239
Speaker 2: your podcast. See you again next episode.

1043
00:49:19,680 --> 00:49:20,720
Speaker 5: We're finished talking