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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: You campaign for it, you've fought for it, you've voted

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Speaker 2: for it, and now it has arrived.

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Speaker 3: Change begins.

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Speaker 4: Now welcome to another special edition of the voter Nomics podcast,

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Speaker 4: where politics and markets collide. I'm Stephanie Flanders, head of

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Speaker 4: Economics and Government at Bloomberg, and I'm in Whitehall in

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Speaker 4: the Old War Office, just a stone's throw from ten

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Speaker 4: Downing Street. If you're much better at throwing stones than

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Speaker 4: i am. The Conservatives just a review have been turfed

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Speaker 4: out in a seismic changing of the guard in Westminster

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Speaker 4: and across constituencies up and down the land, with Prime

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Speaker 4: Minister of Is She's Sunak presiding over a record loss

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Speaker 4: of around two hundred and fifty Conservative seats, Labor with

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Speaker 4: a majority just shy of Tony Blair's landslide victory of

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Speaker 4: nineteen ninety seven, and there will be a lot of

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Speaker 4: other new faces joining him in Parliament, including many more

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Speaker 4: Liberal Democrats, a clutch of reform and Green MPs will

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Speaker 4: be very interested in five years time to see what

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Speaker 4: the opposition, what kind of opposition the Labor Party is facing.

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Speaker 4: But I think it's fair to say, for the first

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Speaker 4: time in a long time, the world here in that

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Speaker 4: the financial markets and in London but also around the

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Speaker 4: world doesn't have to pay that much attention to the

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Speaker 4: Conservative Party's travails, at least for a while, any more

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Speaker 4: than they ever care about a weak opposition party at

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Speaker 4: the start of a new government with a massive majority.

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Speaker 4: So instead we'll be focusing here on Labor and markets

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Speaker 4: haven't reacted this morning. You'll probably have seen, and I

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Speaker 4: think con mentioned there's been no big change in the

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Speaker 4: pound foot seats up slightly when it opened a few

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Speaker 4: minutes ago, and that's obviously because it wasn't a surprise

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Speaker 4: that the Labor Party had won. But I think you

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Speaker 4: know they've been so cagey and so careful in the

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Speaker 4: lead up to this, with their huge lead in the

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Speaker 4: polls that they didn't want to lose. Then I think

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Speaker 4: there will be plenty in the months to come that

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Speaker 4: will be a surprise for investors and for the business

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Speaker 4: community and for all of.

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Speaker 5: Us here up on the stage.

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Speaker 4: I have to help me thinking about this, think about

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Speaker 4: this for the next few minutes. Bloomberg's editor in chief

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Speaker 4: John Mikolfwaite and Sir Nigel Wilson, who was the chief

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Speaker 4: executive of the insurer Legal in General for a decade

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Speaker 4: before standing down last year, and has recently been appointed

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Speaker 4: group chairman of Canary Wharf Group. So Nigel, let me

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Speaker 4: come to you, because along with your business career, you've

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Speaker 4: been quite public over the years about the factors holding

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Speaker 4: back the UK economy and the shortcomings in government policy

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Speaker 4: over this period. Do you seriously expect now that lay

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Speaker 4: But will change things and what kind of advice would

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Speaker 4: you give them.

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Speaker 6: I'm very excited because I think Kids done an amazing

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Speaker 6: job to transform the party and win the election, and

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Speaker 6: he's now got a wonderful opportunity because as I've always said,

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Speaker 6: we've got an amazing amount of capital in the UK.

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Speaker 6: We've got six trillion pounds of long term capital which

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Speaker 6: has been hopelessly misallocated for the last twenty or thirty years.

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Speaker 6: So they've got the capital already sitting in the UK

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Speaker 6: to do all the necessary changes. Because we're always bottom

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Speaker 6: of the G seven table in terms of the percentage

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Speaker 6: of investment as a proportion of GDP, we could now

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Speaker 6: move to near the top of it if we want

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Speaker 6: to do that, And they put the policy and regulation

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Speaker 6: in place, to drive growth in housing, to drive growth

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Speaker 6: in sort out the water industry, their massive transformation on energy,

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Speaker 6: and to build a world class venture capital and scale

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Speaker 6: up businesses in the UK. So I'm very excited about

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Speaker 6: the prospects because kids done a great job in Phase one,

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Speaker 6: which I think is the easiest.

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Speaker 1: One, is winning the election.

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Speaker 6: Verse two is actually coming forward with some not KG policies,

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Speaker 6: but some real credible policies about how we're really going

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Speaker 6: to grow the economy and use.

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Speaker 1: All the private capital and all the.

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Speaker 6: Private expertise to drive that growth, and then be very

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Speaker 6: supportive next year in actually making sure that capital gets

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Speaker 6: spent and the government acts in a very bald and

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Speaker 6: aggressive way that they haven't done for a very long

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Speaker 6: period of time to really drive change. Don't just talk

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Speaker 6: about change, You've got to make change happen. So I

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Speaker 6: think they are listening. I've had lots of indeed some

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Speaker 6: private sessions with kir on this, and I think they're

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Speaker 6: up for doing this. This could be nineteen forty five,

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Speaker 6: a transformation of the economy going forward, a modernization of

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Speaker 6: the economy going forward, and really really delivering and making

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Speaker 6: people happy again about the terrible lack of growth that

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Speaker 6: we've seen since two thousand and seven. How far behind

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Speaker 6: we've fallen against the best amount of competitors.

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Speaker 4: Well, just to follow up on that, I mean, I

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Speaker 4: think you know people would often people outside the world

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Speaker 4: are surprised that we have a world leading financial sector,

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Speaker 4: that it's so good at deploying capital, But historically, for

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Speaker 4: more than a century it has been bad deploying it

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Speaker 4: in its own country. We just haven't we haven't seen

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Speaker 4: it go into the kind of private investment. And as

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Speaker 4: you mentioned, twenty four of the last thirty years we've

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Speaker 4: had the lowest rate of investment in the Group of Seven,

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Speaker 4: and we're about twenty eighth out of thirty one countries

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Speaker 4: in the OECD.

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Speaker 5: So when you talk.

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Speaker 4: About Takirstama, the incoming prime minister knows what's at stake

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Speaker 4: and knows some of the key leavers to pull.

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Speaker 5: What are you.

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Speaker 4: Focused on on planning restrictions on house building? Where would

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Speaker 4: you see it?

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Speaker 6: I think all of these things are integrated together, because

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Speaker 6: I think once you start delivering change and people seeing

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Speaker 6: things happen, then you create that immersing positive momentum. They've

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Speaker 6: done it in the election. I think they can do

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Speaker 6: it in the economy as well, because the numbers that

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Speaker 6: you caught are often the ones that I qued as well.

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Speaker 6: We have this massive potential. There's six trillion pounds of

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Speaker 6: long term capital. There's three trillion in the pension fund industry,

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Speaker 6: there's one and a half trillion in the insurance industry,

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Speaker 6: seven and fifty billion sitting in various serving schemes, and

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Speaker 6: isis have seven and fifty billion as well. That's six

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Speaker 6: trillion hopelessly deployed. And we got some of the cleverest,

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Speaker 6: best bankers in the world, and as you said, they're

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Speaker 6: world leading. We now have to get them working with

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Speaker 6: industry and actually under the sponsorship and leadership of the

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Speaker 6: government to really make a difference and planning. Initially, they've

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Speaker 6: got to use the powers they already have, compulsory purchase orders,

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Speaker 6: call in rights, and then put in place legislation which

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Speaker 6: allows them to really drive growth in the energy industry

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Speaker 6: and the housing industry, in the water industry, but also

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Speaker 6: in all these amazing scale up businesses that we have

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Speaker 6: across the UK. So they actually do scale up. They

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Speaker 6: do ip R here in the UK, and we look

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Speaker 6: in two or three years time and say, wow, all

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Speaker 6: these amazing things have happened here in the UK.

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Speaker 2: I think is that we all know planning is one

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Speaker 2: huge area where things could change dramatically. The other gigantic

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Speaker 2: one is Europe, which you didn't mention that bit like

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Speaker 2: Karma is not mentioned or he's tried not to mention it.

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Speaker 2: But if you were looking just from a straightforward economists

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Speaker 2: point of view about how to grow the British economy,

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Speaker 2: a new deal with Europe and one which went perhaps

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Speaker 2: quite close to a customs union, perhaps is that the

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Speaker 2: other the other lever he.

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Speaker 3: Could pull in order to get these things happening.

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Speaker 6: Yes, I think that's an excellent question, and I would

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Speaker 6: agree with everything you said that John, that it's something

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Speaker 6: we should be doing. There's a bit of chills in

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Speaker 6: Europe at the moment, and we've got these domestic priorities

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Speaker 6: where we can actually deliver on them without wasting too

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Speaker 6: much time literally next week they.

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Speaker 2: In order to get the most growth out of Europe

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Speaker 2: to start.

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Speaker 6: I mean, I would be in favor of a customs union,

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Speaker 6: but clearly that's not the position that here and the

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Speaker 6: rest of the team have right now. But actually the

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Speaker 6: get momentum in the domestic economy that will create confidence

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Speaker 6: and actually going forward and developing a much firmer and

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Speaker 6: better relationship with Europe, which I think we would all

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Speaker 6: cheer for.

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Speaker 4: I guess the pushback to some of this optimism, although

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Speaker 4: obviously it is exciting and it's great to hear the

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Speaker 4: kind of confidence and the optimism in your voice, Nigel.

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Speaker 4: The just two things that we've identified that could make

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Speaker 4: a difference. Are there just two things that have caused

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Speaker 4: the most problem for you successive UK governments? Pushing through

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Speaker 4: difficult investment projects or big infrastructure investment. Redeploying capital in

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Speaker 4: the in the savings industry. I mean, people have been

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Speaker 4: trying to do this for many years, many including Jeremy Hunt,

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Speaker 4: have talked about it, and equally Europe has has just

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Speaker 4: sucked so much time and political capital over the years

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Speaker 4: without necessarily you know, it's going to would take quite

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Speaker 4: a lot for this incoming government decide to deploy it there.

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Speaker 4: So isn't that the chat. The two things that we've

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Speaker 4: talked about are actually incredibly hard and they could look

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Speaker 4: very bogged down very quickly.

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Speaker 6: I think that's not going to be the case, because

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Speaker 6: certainly I'm I'm very pleased by the way that Jeremy

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Speaker 6: kept his seat because he did a lot of work

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Speaker 6: on pension reform. He's a really good person and he

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Speaker 6: stood up when we really needed somebody to stand up.

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Speaker 6: And I think Rachel's going to be the same is

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Speaker 6: that she's going to try to make things happen and

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Speaker 6: at pace. And so we know what the past look like,

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Speaker 6: we don't want to repeat of that. Therefore, we've got

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Speaker 6: to really drive change through very very quickly. And there

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Speaker 6: are so many easy wins. You know, there's a stock

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Speaker 6: of housing projects just stuck in planning, and you can

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Speaker 6: accelerate that. It's a choice you can select whether do

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Speaker 6: we go faster U s law. We all want to

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Speaker 6: go faster on things like that. And once that starts happening,

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Speaker 6: doors lead to doors, and we'll see more good things

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Speaker 6: happening right now because there's there's a good will towards

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Speaker 6: the party.

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Speaker 4: Are you so confident these things are going to happen

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Speaker 4: because you're going to be in charge of doing them.

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Speaker 5: You have been talked about as.

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Speaker 6: I'm certainly very close to lots of the mayors across

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Speaker 6: the Believer and Devolution, and indeed I'd already set up

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Speaker 6: some meetings post the election to talk to them about

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Speaker 6: what else we can do to accelerate the growth, be

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Speaker 6: that in Newcastle or Sunderland.

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Speaker 4: But if Takia calls up in a few hours, I said,

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Speaker 4: you know what, I.

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Speaker 6: Think he's got bigger issues to worry about than what

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Speaker 6: I'm going to do for the next few months. But

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Speaker 6: he's going to He's got a good team around him,

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Speaker 6: and that team's talked up their capability. Now they have

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Speaker 6: to deliver on that capability. And they've got the money.

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Speaker 6: And as you're right you said, we've got a brilliant

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Speaker 6: financial services sector, almost the envy of the world. We're

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Speaker 6: brilliant in Pe, We're brilliant in VC. We've got tons

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Speaker 6: of savings, We've got masses of great banks here in

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Speaker 6: the City of London. We've got huge underinvestment. As you

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Speaker 6: pointed out, for the last thirty years, there's so many

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Speaker 6: easy wins make them happen.

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Speaker 2: If I was you imagine you did get that job,

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Speaker 2: I would be rather worried by some of the seats.

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Speaker 3: That labor is just one.

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Speaker 2: You know, all these things like Uldershot, These are all

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Speaker 2: the places where the Tories have faced endless problems over

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Speaker 2: planning because people object to it.

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Speaker 3: They don't like it.

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Speaker 2: There's that film studio in Theiamalow which even people like

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Speaker 2: Georgie Osporan say it's insane not to build it, the

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Speaker 2: three thousand jobs, two hundred acres, but because it's just

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Speaker 2: on the edge of the green belt, people don't want it.

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Speaker 2: You are now going to have in Labor a group

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Speaker 2: of MPs which never had before, who, after a few

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Speaker 2: hours of self congratulation, they're stunning and face to the prospect.

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Speaker 2: They've got constituents who don't like new houses. There could

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Speaker 2: be another wing of the Labor Party which actually makes

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Speaker 2: life more difficult than easy for all the things you

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Speaker 2: want to do.

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Speaker 1: I think that's a possibility.

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Speaker 6: But you know, when I was at Legal in General,

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Speaker 6: we did the sky studios at Elstree, which is in

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Speaker 6: a not quite the green belt, but in an area

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Speaker 6: that was difficult to achieve planning on. But once people

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Speaker 6: see these things and they become up and running, and

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Speaker 6: you can take people across the country and say, look,

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Speaker 6: this is what happened here. This is the outcome. Don't

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Speaker 6: be fearful about it. This is the rights of our

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Speaker 6: children to have housing. You know, our generations stolen from

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Speaker 6: our children by not giving them their housing, by charging

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Speaker 6: for god to universities, by not giving them good pensions,

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Speaker 6: all the things that we took for granted. We have

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Speaker 6: to replace them by doing a better job for them

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Speaker 6: going forward in educations on that list as well, which

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Speaker 6: I know you feel very strong.

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Speaker 4: In a minute, I want to get onto sort of

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Speaker 4: pulling back of the lens in terms of where this victory,

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Speaker 4: what it looks like in a global context, and what

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Speaker 4: that means for kirs Arma as a new prime minister.

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Speaker 4: But I guess you know, for the audience that is

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Speaker 4: the business community, for investors around the world, very important

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Speaker 4: to get stability, and I think that is why there

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Speaker 4: was confidence around this. There was a positive reaction to this,

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Speaker 4: just the prospect of a five years stable majority government,

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Speaker 4: the good things that they might do that we've talked

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Speaker 4: about to unlock investment and growth. But of course with

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Speaker 4: any labor government, you also have the question of what bad.

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Speaker 5: Things are we hoping they don't do?

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Speaker 4: And you know, one query has been given that they're

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Speaker 4: not going to have very much money to play with.

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Speaker 4: What often then happens is that you change laws instead

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Speaker 4: of spending money, because you can do sweeping things by changing,

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Speaker 4: for example, employment law, maybe eating away a bit at

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Speaker 4: the sort of flexible hire and fire structure of the

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Speaker 4: UK in ways that have unexpectedly quite negative effects for

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Speaker 4: growth and for business confidence. So how worried should people

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Speaker 4: be about that? Because that was where there was a

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Speaker 4: bit of detail in the manifesto.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I agree with that, and I think that's what's

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Speaker 6: happened over the last thirty years. We made all these

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Speaker 6: marginal decisions which look when you're making them as though

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Speaker 6: they're positive, but actually when you look at the second

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Speaker 6: order effects and the unintended consequences have been very negative

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Speaker 6: for the overall economy and people's thinking about what a

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Speaker 6: great place the UK is to invest.

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Speaker 1: That's why they have to have some wins on the

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Speaker 1: positive growth story.

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Speaker 6: So they're definitely changing the narrative, but not spending all

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Speaker 6: of their time causing things which are a problem for business.

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Speaker 4: Is there anything in that manifesto on that front that

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Speaker 4: you would worry about?

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Speaker 1: Well?

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Speaker 4: I think everyone, Yeah, I forget.

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Speaker 6: The worker's rights issues are going to are going to

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Speaker 6: be an issue that people are going to have to

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Speaker 6: be concerned concerned about, you know, and it's not going

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Speaker 6: to be plain sailing giving the composition of the of

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Speaker 6: the Labor Party, and that is a risk, that is

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Speaker 6: definitely a risk. So you're right to highlight that as

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Speaker 6: a as a risk. And I've been on the other

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Speaker 6: side of that where I've been overly optimistic about things

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Speaker 6: and then got just really let me down again.

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Speaker 1: And that's happened so much in the so much in

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Speaker 1: the past.

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Speaker 6: But I think the towns and the cities across the

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Speaker 6: UK have very capable people.

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Speaker 1: In them now as well.

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Speaker 6: The banks themselves have moved to Birmingham, to Leeds, to Manchester,

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Speaker 6: to Newcastle, and that's having a difference because suddenly capital

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Speaker 6: is on tap, ambitions on tap. The mayors themselves are

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Speaker 6: very ambitious people and very capable people.

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Speaker 5: That is clearly going to be the ultimate test.

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Speaker 4: They've talked a lot about decentralizing, and I certainly with

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Speaker 4: someone who thinks, I agree with you that it's the

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Speaker 4: best way now given where we are to make things happen,

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Speaker 4: is to be devolving more power to regions and to

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Speaker 4: cities in particular. But whether you know, so many governments

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Speaker 4: say that and then they get power they don't want

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Speaker 4: to relinquish it, so we'll see what happens. John, I think,

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Speaker 4: you know, you're someone who is flitting around the world

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Speaker 4: quite a lot while we do all the work, she says,

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Speaker 4: And I flicked It was not a surprise in the

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Speaker 4: UK context at all, and it comes after fourteen years

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Speaker 4: of conservative rule. But in a global context this is

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Speaker 4: completely out of step.

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Speaker 2: I think this is a big deal globally. I think

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Speaker 2: that if you step back spect those of us who

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Speaker 2: deal with America a lot, we'll get a lot of calls.

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Speaker 2: Later next week, You've got the summit where star War

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Speaker 2: will go there, and suddenly this man who is describing

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Speaker 2: was was you know, rather it seemed like a rather

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Speaker 2: marginal figure in world politics, will suddenly be one of

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Speaker 2: the most powerful people, notwithstanding the fact the kind of

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Speaker 2: basket case nature of Britain in many ways. He will

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Speaker 2: appear and he is the one person next week who

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Speaker 2: will be able to say, look, I'm here for the

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Speaker 2: next five years. You look around the rest of the world.

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Speaker 2: You've got Joe Biden, for whom the weekend maybe a

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Speaker 2: long time.

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Speaker 3: You have.

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Speaker 2: Macron, who is in severe trouble. I love Schultz has

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Speaker 2: also got issues. And from that perspective, you've got Keir Starmer,

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Speaker 2: a very good Greek prime minister, good Italian primi or

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Speaker 2: Italian prime minis who's doing quite well. That Starmo is

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Speaker 2: going to be right at the very center of things

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Speaker 2: with a degree of longevity, and I think that is

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Speaker 2: actually really quite a big thing, and especially in the

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Speaker 2: context of what's happening in other countries, and that degree

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Speaker 2: of permanence is a very strange thing. And then secondly,

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Speaker 2: he will be able to say, look, I'm the person

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Speaker 2: who's managed to resist or at least in theory, I've

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Speaker 2: managed to resist these sort of nationalist currents which are

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Speaker 2: happening elsewhere. And yes, people will come back at him

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Speaker 2: and say we'll reform did well that that is not

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Speaker 2: the same as what's happening in Paris. It's not the

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Speaker 2: same as what's happening in Germany. And if you factor

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump, and it's not not the same as what's

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Speaker 2: happening in America. So there will be I think, amongst

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Speaker 2: what might have describe the center ground of politics, there

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Speaker 2: will also be a degree of Starmerism. So I completely

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Speaker 2: agree as I indicated, but that with the massive problems.

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Speaker 2: Starmer's got here, but actually in a weird way, you know,

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Speaker 2: he's on the international stage. I think he is the

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Speaker 2: first person since kind of Cameron or possibly Blair to

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Speaker 2: have that degree of clout when it comes to the

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Speaker 2: it comes to the world politics.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I guess we don't know what's going to

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Speaker 4: happen in France, will find out on Sunday night. But

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Speaker 4: to the extent as you say, we have the German Chancellor,

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Speaker 4: French President Macron very much on the back foot, potentially

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Speaker 4: President Biden as well. I guess there is danger though

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Speaker 4: that they've invested all this time in roose relationships that

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Speaker 4: are not really going to be worth very much and

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Speaker 4: they're not going to be able to provide things that

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Speaker 4: labor or that the UK needs. So is that that

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Speaker 4: that's the downside?

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Speaker 3: I think there is.

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Speaker 2: I think one of the problems which Nigel alluded to

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Speaker 2: is that the obvious thing. I think if all three

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Speaker 2: of us, to make a terrible presumption, were put into

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Speaker 2: Downing Street, I think redoing the relationship with Europe would

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Speaker 2: be that is the simple, easiest way to get the

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Speaker 2: growth that Britain needs, and that nothing none of the

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Speaker 2: wonderful things that you may not be wonderful to everybody.

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Speaker 3: The things that labor wants to do are going to be.

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Speaker 2: Really possible without growth because you have the guilts market

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Speaker 2: sitting there looking at government spending. But the problem is

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Speaker 2: you go to Europe and it's a mess, and so

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Speaker 2: the idea that you know, Starma can immediately get some.

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Speaker 3: Degree of deal there.

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Speaker 2: I think, you know, if I was Starmer, I would

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Speaker 2: still try and do that rapidly because I think it

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Speaker 2: has two amazing effects for Starmer.

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Speaker 3: Number one is it increases British growth.

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Speaker 2: Secondly, it really skewers the Tories because it probably pushes

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Speaker 2: the Tories into a position where they oppose no matter

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Speaker 2: what happens, whatever deal he does come up with, And

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Speaker 2: I think when he does, if they do that, I

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Speaker 2: think I'll make a terrible presumption again about the nature

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Speaker 2: of the people in this room. But I think the

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Speaker 2: commercial classes in Britain, if the Tories again push themselves

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Speaker 2: into a thing where they really limit growth, I think

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Speaker 2: that would be a very serious thing for the future

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Speaker 2: of the Conservative Party.

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Speaker 5: I mean, if you look sorry, and I.

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Speaker 1: Think we can change investor perception.

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Speaker 6: That's the other thing One of the points that John's

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Speaker 6: just made is that because this will have financial and

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Speaker 6: political stability for the next five years, this is a.

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Speaker 1: You know, I've got a conscious buiers.

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Speaker 6: I think London's the best city in the world in

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Speaker 6: the UK is an amazing class to invest and we've

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Speaker 6: just underinvested it in it for such a long time.

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Speaker 6: Investor perception is going to change. The Conservatives did a

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Speaker 6: really poor job of country management across the across the world.

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Speaker 6: We have an opportunity to put a lot of that

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Speaker 6: ride right now, and there's tons of money elsewhere looking

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Speaker 6: for homes the world to wash with cash and capital

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Speaker 6: at the moment, and we should be telling people this

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Speaker 6: is a great place to come and invest that money

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Speaker 6: because you're going to have the political stability and economic

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Speaker 6: growth agenda here very poor business and these are great

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Speaker 6: cities and towns to live in.

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Speaker 4: We're going to run out of time in a minute,

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Speaker 4: but I guess I had had two more words to

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Speaker 4: ask you what your feelings were. Industrial policy, you know,

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Speaker 4: we've had that's one of the ways in which the

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Speaker 4: world has actually moved left in recent years in terms

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Speaker 4: of economic policy, much more interventionism. Rachel Reeves has talked

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Speaker 4: about Bidenomics without the money, or I guess she's not

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Speaker 4: talked about it, but what she said has implied Bidenomics

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Speaker 4: without the money because we don't have the kind of

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Speaker 4: scale of trillions that the Biden administration has been able

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Speaker 4: to put into things like the Inflation Reduction Act and

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Speaker 4: Infrastructure program. But we may have bidnomics without President Biden

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Speaker 4: as well. But that's a whole other issue. But do

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Speaker 4: you kind of have a natural kind of watch your

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Speaker 4: wallet response when you start hearing about industrial policy? Do

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Speaker 4: you worry about competition in that context?

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Speaker 5: How do you? How should one should one welcome that?

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Speaker 6: I think we should welcome it because that's I think

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Speaker 6: there's going to be an engagement around what the industrial

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Speaker 6: policy should be because they've been actively listening for us

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Speaker 6: for a very long time time and that's been very,

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Speaker 6: very positive.

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Speaker 1: And there is just just this huge gap and we

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Speaker 1: have the capital.

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Speaker 6: You know, as John mentioned, public finances are very constrained

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Speaker 6: and will find out just how constrained there is when

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Speaker 6: they do their due diligence starting next week.

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Speaker 1: Private sector capital is huge.

443
00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:45,440
Speaker 6: The personal financial sector in the UK has a very strong,

444
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:48,760
Speaker 6: massive excess service, really good shape. The SME is in

445
00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:51,879
Speaker 6: Britain one hundred and ninety billion of borrowings two hundred

446
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,840
Speaker 6: and fifty billion of deposits right now. So there's huge

447
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 6: headroom for growth in the UK, but you have to

448
00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:00,520
Speaker 6: have that confidence to invest, and I don't. We've had

449
00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:04,480
Speaker 6: either the planning, the regulation, the policy, the tax situation

450
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:07,200
Speaker 6: which is really encouraged investment. I was talking to the

451
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:11,720
Speaker 6: Tartar Group about their investment in their the battery factory

452
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:15,160
Speaker 6: yesterday and Chandra is one of the most visionary leaders

453
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:18,239
Speaker 6: in the in the world and they're going to make

454
00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 6: that happen and seeing is believing. The envision one up

455
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:24,880
Speaker 6: in Sunderland is absolutely fantastic and if people get out

456
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:26,520
Speaker 6: and see what's happening.

457
00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:28,639
Speaker 1: And that, you know, the early green shoes.

458
00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:31,440
Speaker 5: Per job is extraordinarily high.

459
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:33,760
Speaker 6: Though I think that's a short term view and I

460
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:37,240
Speaker 6: think the doors lead to doors, and we filled when

461
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:40,199
Speaker 6: we built the original nissunfactory. We haven't really done very

462
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:44,040
Speaker 6: much since to build the supply chain. We have to

463
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,520
Speaker 6: build supply chains in the in the UK in part

464
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 6: to trade bede.

465
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:50,080
Speaker 2: Here we face this fundamental problem is that we decided

466
00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:52,920
Speaker 2: I'm not exit is not the main issue, but the

467
00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 2: basic factor is just at the moment when the world

468
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:58,959
Speaker 2: stopped being global, when it went to regional trade blocks,

469
00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:01,120
Speaker 2: we are the people outside. And when you talk about

470
00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 2: industrial policy that the comment about you know, Bidenomics without

471
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:07,800
Speaker 2: without the money is you sit in anything and you

472
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,560
Speaker 2: look at Biden spends a trillion on green industry, and

473
00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:13,200
Speaker 2: if we get twenty million, we think we're doing really well.

474
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:17,199
Speaker 6: It's we could do over one hundred billion pounds of

475
00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:20,080
Speaker 6: investment per year for the next ten years just with

476
00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:23,159
Speaker 6: the private sector money and now absolute confidence that all

477
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 6: the projects are there, absolute confidence in the financial services

478
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 6: sector to actually deliver, deliver, deliver that capital, and the

479
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 6: economic growth that we'd get out of that would actually

480
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:35,160
Speaker 6: in five years sort out the public finance problem.

481
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:37,280
Speaker 2: Isn't that interesting though, that your version of labor, which

482
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:39,640
Speaker 2: I think most people in this room would definitely support,

483
00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 2: that could end up being a more free market version

484
00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:46,000
Speaker 2: of the left broadly than what's happening in America, what's

485
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 2: happening in other places.

486
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:48,760
Speaker 4: We're going to end, but I want to just grasp

487
00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 4: both of you just one sort of simple question that

488
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 4: comes out of the way. This majority was one and

489
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,840
Speaker 4: actually it's a historically very small share of the vote

490
00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:01,720
Speaker 4: for an extraordinary majority. I think it's the lowest ever

491
00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:05,639
Speaker 4: share of the vote for the highest ever majority. So

492
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:09,520
Speaker 4: there's been a very sort of softly softly approach leading

493
00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 4: up to this, and even with this symphatic win, maybe

494
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 4: some nervousness about how solid some of these seats are.

495
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:17,560
Speaker 4: Do you think Kirs Starmer both of you, do you

496
00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:21,200
Speaker 4: think Kirs Starmer is brave enough to really move the

497
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:23,440
Speaker 4: dar over the next few years and then the next

498
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 4: few months.

499
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 1: I think he is definitely brave enough to do it.

500
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:29,359
Speaker 6: He needs his other members of the cabinet to be

501
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 6: bald and brave and he actually use the powers that

502
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 6: they have to really start to build momentum around economic growth,

503
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 6: because whilst public finances appear, as John mentioned, the rest

504
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:42,120
Speaker 6: of the economy is in pretty good share, and we.

505
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 1: Have a lot of a lot of really good capable

506
00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 1: people who are now in positions rather like you.

507
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 6: I think devolution is a great idea and we should

508
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 6: be doing more of it rather than let less of it,

509
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:54,679
Speaker 6: and really really build up that our great cities outside

510
00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 6: of London as well.

511
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 2: I think intellectually Starmer is in the right place in

512
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:01,919
Speaker 2: terms of the things you're talking. I think the emotional

513
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 2: side of it. The bit I worry about is that

514
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 2: his whole record is one of on the whole is gradualism.

515
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,320
Speaker 2: You know, he comes in, he changes things. Look at

516
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 2: what he's done to labor. It's an amazing feat. But

517
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:15,119
Speaker 2: he didn't do it all on day one. And the

518
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,200
Speaker 2: slight problem is when you when you go into government,

519
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:20,440
Speaker 2: that is, as you know, it's a different challenge. You

520
00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:22,480
Speaker 2: suddenly get thrown things. So you have to make big

521
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:24,440
Speaker 2: decisions and you have to try to do them as

522
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 2: early as possible because political capital.

523
00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:29,399
Speaker 3: Is a bit as George W. Bush what said, it

524
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 3: is like an iceberg in the desert. It it evaporates.

525
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:36,879
Speaker 2: And I think the more stuff that Starma does early,

526
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:40,160
Speaker 2: you know, Blair tragic, lamb old enough to remember that

527
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 2: Blair came in and he did a lot of things

528
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 2: straight away. And that's where we're getting very good indication

529
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:49,040
Speaker 2: of how bold Starma really is.

530
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:50,960
Speaker 3: I think quite soon watch this space.

531
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:53,960
Speaker 4: Well, we have managed to talk all this time without

532
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:57,440
Speaker 4: talking about really talking about the public finances or where

533
00:25:57,480 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 4: the money is going to come from. But we spent

534
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:01,160
Speaker 4: so much time talking about that over the last few weeks,

535
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:03,199
Speaker 4: and I know there'll be plenty more discussions around that,

536
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:06,400
Speaker 4: so I'm very happy to have had this quite optimistic

537
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:12,919
Speaker 4: and quite detailed micro look at the challenges ahead for

538
00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:14,480
Speaker 4: this government and whether they're.

539
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 2: Up to them.

540
00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:17,360
Speaker 4: Thank you for being here for our recording of Voter

541
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:21,160
Speaker 4: Nomics from the Old War Office in Whitehall as part

542
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:23,879
Speaker 4: of this bloomberg UK election of twenty twenty four.

543
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:24,840
Speaker 5: The debrief.

544
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:28,640
Speaker 4: Thank you to our guest John Miiklfwaite and Sir Nigel Wilson,

545
00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 4: and all of you listening and sitting here. Please do

546
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:36,000
Speaker 4: subscribe to voter Nomics wherever you listen to podcasts or

547
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:38,040
Speaker 4: indeed listening to panels like this one.

548
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:38,880
Speaker 5: Thank you very much