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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Pawn and I've been looking this morning for moments to

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Speaker 2: stop and do more traditional prosaic discussions of economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 2: of international invation relations. We can do that with Sarah

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Speaker 2: Wolf at Morgan Stanley Thematic macro investing as well. Sarah,

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Speaker 2: what's your theme into the rest of twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 3: The biggest thing that we're looking at is around multipolar world,

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Speaker 3: and I actually think that the SPACEXIPO fits right into this,

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Speaker 3: where we really are entering a new frontier of this

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Speaker 3: globally fragmented economy where we're seeing intense reshoring, diversification of

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Speaker 3: supply chains, and now we're entering new frontiers such as

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Speaker 3: space where we're competing with the rest of the world

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Speaker 3: on technological innovation and dominating the space atmosphere with satellites.

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Speaker 4: So, Sarah, in the context of a broader discussion of

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Speaker 4: a of inflation, how does AI fit into that is

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Speaker 4: AI inflationary at this point?

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Speaker 3: Well, what we're seeing is that amid all this AI

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Speaker 3: driven demand, we're seeing increasing supply shocks at the same time,

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Speaker 3: and so there's these very fragile choke points that are

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Speaker 3: causing prices to rise for things like GPUs, semiconductors, write,

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Speaker 3: everything that's going into building out empowering AI. The reality is, though,

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Speaker 3: all these things that go into these into these AI

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Speaker 3: models are also a lot of the same things that

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Speaker 3: go into consumer products. So over the last four or

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Speaker 3: five months, we've been seeing this AI story push up

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Speaker 3: producer prices and start to bleed into consumer prices as well.

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Speaker 3: So at a time when the FED is looking at

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Speaker 3: the tariff effects hoping that they're going to be abating

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Speaker 3: soon that oil prices are not going to bleed into

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Speaker 3: core inflation, we also need to be watching the AI effects.

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Speaker 5: On consumer prices.

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Speaker 3: And you know, this AI build out story, eight hundred

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Speaker 3: billion dollars of capex this year over trillion next year,

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Speaker 3: that's likely to be inflation area.

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Speaker 2: Okay, So when you and Ellen Zanner sit down over

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Speaker 2: tea on this and I'm looking, I'm featuring at twelve

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Speaker 2: dollion today the Citadel essay fos Frank Flight that I

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Speaker 2: thought was really a nice sum of this the price

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Speaker 2: theory Sarah wolf of this is basically falling apart. How

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Speaker 2: do you envision the microeconomics, the price discovery, the scarcity dynamic.

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Speaker 2: How will that work out over the next eighteen months.

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Speaker 3: Over the long run, AI is likely to be deflationary,

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Speaker 3: differ inflation.

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Speaker 5: We can all agree on that.

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Speaker 6: Right.

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Speaker 3: Once we get these productivity benefits, it's going to lower

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Speaker 3: the cost of goods and services, increase welfare for people.

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Speaker 3: But our thesis is that AI adoption and real productivity

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Speaker 3: gains are really hard, especially when you look at the

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Speaker 3: micro level and a company by company basis. There's a

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Speaker 3: lot of work and what we call intangible capex that

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Speaker 3: needs to be done at the enterprise level to actually

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Speaker 3: see meaningful adoption and see that disinflation area effect. And

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Speaker 3: I still think we're quite a bit away from that,

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Speaker 3: and over the next eighteen month it's really going to

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Speaker 3: be inflation driven by the AI infrastructure capex story before

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Speaker 3: we get those productivity gains at the company level.

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Speaker 5: Sarah.

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Speaker 4: We're going to get a Federal Reserve meeting next week

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Speaker 4: and we have a new FED reserve share. I know

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Speaker 4: it just popped up on my screen. So what are

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Speaker 4: you going to be looking for from the new fedchair.

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Speaker 3: Wash, Well, we know from the new fedchair that he

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Speaker 3: favors a little bit less communication and there's a lot

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Speaker 3: of concern for markets that it's going to cause more

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Speaker 3: uncertainty and volatility. My view is that it's not necessarily

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Speaker 3: the communication from Kevin Walsh that's going to cause more

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Speaker 3: uncertainty of volatility, but it's really what's happening on the

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Speaker 3: broader FMC. We're seeing a lack of consensus, more dissents

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Speaker 3: on what the future policy paths should be, and that

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Speaker 3: is going to cause more uncertainty. For the Fed meeting itself.

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Speaker 3: We're going to get a summary of economic projections. The

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Speaker 3: last one we got was in March. A lot has

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Speaker 3: changed in the last few months. Growth is coming and stronger,

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Speaker 3: but at the same time, inslation is higher, and what

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Speaker 3: we're seeing among economists and the FMCA is more of

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Speaker 3: a consensus that neutral is higher and so that cut

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Speaker 3: for this year is going to be taken out of

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Speaker 3: the projections, likely a cut or two for next year

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Speaker 3: as well, and we're going to be entering this world

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Speaker 3: of higher for longer. The last thing I'll say is

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Speaker 3: that we do think that that Chair Warsh is going

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Speaker 3: to be focused more on these trimmed inflation mean measure Interesting,

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Speaker 3: so we know core core PCE is above three percent,

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Speaker 3: but if you look at the Dallas trim mean, it's

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Speaker 3: closer to two percent. So that's that's a little bit

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Speaker 3: more favorable for it your easier policy.

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Speaker 5: Okay, I want to get.

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Speaker 2: You in trouble. There's a huge you know, how many

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Speaker 2: people they have working under Ellen Zenner is Sarah's Wolf,

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Speaker 2: It's like forty two people or whatever. In your meeting

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Speaker 2: Sarah Wolf. How disparate is trim mean Cleveland and all

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Speaker 2: the rest from pc E. What's that research paper look

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Speaker 2: like for Monday?

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Speaker 3: Well, when if you look at the trim mean, they're

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Speaker 3: basically trying to pull out outliers that are causing one

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Speaker 3: off pushes in inflation.

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Speaker 5: Right, so you have the oil shock, tear shock rate.

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Speaker 3: These are not seen as inflationary pressures but price shocks,

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Speaker 3: and so these trim means are trying to are trying

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Speaker 3: to push out and clean the data for this more

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Speaker 3: these more volatile categories of inflation Sarah, okay, well.

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Speaker 5: Last please, all right, no please, I'll.

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Speaker 3: Add that for the for the for the f OMC,

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Speaker 3: and for the FED. Here we saw this over the

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Speaker 3: last six years where they like to look at measures

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Speaker 3: of inflation that help reinforce their views. So this could

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Speaker 3: go out of fashion in the next six month if

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Speaker 3: we see the trim mean rise above regular core brilliant.

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Speaker 2: Sarah, Well, thank you, thank you so much for the brief, Paul,

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Speaker 2: thanks for bringing up to FED how quaint on a

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Speaker 2: Friday before the FED meeting. Ms Wolf is with Morgan Stanley.

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Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am, eas Durn, Listen

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Speaker 1: on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: We are advantaged here. There's a side story going on today,

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Speaker 2: which is the gamble over what a barrel of oil

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Speaker 2: can do. Ed Hers, Senior, Fellow, University of Houston. Here

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Speaker 2: in our studios in New York, I see the sharts

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Speaker 2: and the graphs that say we're really, really low in

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Speaker 2: our storage of oil to find. What that means is

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Speaker 2: that like Cushing, Oklahoma, the barrels are almost empty. What

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Speaker 2: does it actually mean?

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Speaker 7: They're getting really worried and Cushing, we're down to about

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Speaker 7: twenty five million barrels in storage. For contrast, when it

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Speaker 7: was seventy million barrels in storage and over the price

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Speaker 7: went to zero. So twenty twenty five is kind of

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Speaker 7: at the bottom of the operating range. We're well past

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Speaker 7: the five year averages on the downside and or outside

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Speaker 7: that band, if you will, and the twenty million. We're

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Speaker 7: moving barrels here there, and we're about to get to

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Speaker 7: a point where it's difficult to mix or match the

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Speaker 7: supplies to the refineries we need.

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Speaker 2: Do you agree with many quotes mid July, first week

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Speaker 2: of July, lest week of July. At some point out there,

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Speaker 2: boom we get higher oil prices.

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Speaker 7: Absolutely. I can't argue with the CEOs of Exon and Chevron.

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Speaker 7: That's a losing game. They don't ever come out and

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Speaker 7: make public announcements like this. You know, it's the physical market.

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Speaker 7: And we've already seen jet fuel at two hundred dollars

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Speaker 7: a barrel in northern Europe. We've seen diesel at one

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Speaker 7: hundred and fifty dollars a barrel. Here in the US,

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Speaker 7: we're really fortunate. We've we've got plenty. We produce about

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Speaker 7: fourteen million barrels a day. We export about four and

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Speaker 7: a half on average. We imported six point two last

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Speaker 7: year at four plus from Canada and that's not going anywhere.

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Speaker 7: You know, from the Straight and Foremos we were only

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Speaker 7: getting about four hundred and ninety thousand barrels a day.

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Speaker 7: You know, we can buy it, but what we're doing

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Speaker 7: is we're selling it. I mean, anyone with a commercial

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Speaker 7: inventory sold it. In the second week, Exxon chartered tankers

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Speaker 7: and started sending gasoline to Asia.

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Speaker 2: Magic day for US in Hydrocarbon's Anne Marie Horden, Paul,

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Speaker 2: It's the Bloomberg Energy Security Executive briefing in Houston in Edharst, Houston.

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Speaker 2: Michael Wurst, Mike Worth, engineer from Colorado, Chevron's CEO, will

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Speaker 2: be with Annry Horden.

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Speaker 5: Look for that eleven o'clock.

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Speaker 4: It peace breaks up today, How long will it take

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Speaker 4: to really get oil flowing? It seems like there's ships

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Speaker 4: on both sides of this straight here. How does that

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Speaker 4: play out logistically?

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Speaker 7: It's not just the ships, but it does take time.

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Speaker 7: The US Navy has said it'll take three months to

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Speaker 7: make sure the Strait is clear of minds, and probably

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Speaker 7: with the way the US has attacked the Iranian mind layers,

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Speaker 7: Iran doesn't know where the mines are. And you know,

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Speaker 7: the intel sources in Washington are saying that Iran has

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Speaker 7: now let the genie out of the bottle, or the

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Speaker 7: US has left the gen out of the bottle and

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Speaker 7: shown that Iran has controlled the straight, the one hundreds

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Speaker 7: of miles along the strait, and they've got drones that

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Speaker 7: you know, we could buy a target at Walmart that

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Speaker 7: they put some explosives on, can fly into the bridge

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Speaker 7: of a ship. There's no way to defend against that.

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Speaker 7: And it's Iran has been stating that they're going to

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Speaker 7: maintain the straight, put a toll on it. That's that's

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Speaker 7: going to be a cost going forward. So at least

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Speaker 7: three months to clear the strait to get back to

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Speaker 7: what may be normal throughput. But Kuwait's got to put

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Speaker 7: its wells back online. Saudi Arabia has had a bunch

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Speaker 7: of well shut in. Remember Cutter has lost its LNG

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Speaker 7: market for now, part of it won't be back for

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Speaker 7: at least three to five years as they rebuild, and

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Speaker 7: that's a big hit on the diesel market because a

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Speaker 7: lot of nations are using diesel in place of the LNG.

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Speaker 7: So the market to get back to pre war types

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Speaker 7: of levels maybe eight months at best. Don't think it's

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Speaker 7: going to get below seventy dollars a barrow.

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Speaker 4: What are the US producers doing? I mean, I feel

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Speaker 4: like I want to run down the Houston and put

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Speaker 4: a hole in the ground and start filling oil. I

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Speaker 4: can make money at ninety dollars a barrel. I watched Landman.

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Speaker 4: I don't know how to do this stuff.

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Speaker 8: How's this going?

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Speaker 5: Landman?

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Speaker 3: Is?

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Speaker 7: The real world is just so much worse than Landman?

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Speaker 5: Okay, really absolutely? Now I'm sitting up interesting discuss. Let's

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Speaker 5: stop the show right here.

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Speaker 2: What does Landman's greed and voracious drama get wrong?

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Speaker 7: You know, go back to the television show Dallas. I

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Speaker 7: mean that was much more like it. The Shenanigans, the

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Speaker 7: double dealing, the things behind the curtain that no one

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Speaker 7: in the real world ever sees. Right now, we're seeing

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Speaker 7: a lot of the smaller independence and especially the royalty

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Speaker 7: funds running for the exits as fast as they can

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Speaker 7: because they played Lucy Goosey with all of their back

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Speaker 7: room data stuff. You know, don't trust a the AI

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Speaker 7: overlays that people are putting on royalty payments, payments to owners.

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Speaker 7: Those aren't lining up, and the accounting companies, the auditors

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Speaker 7: can't catch it. They aren't going back to the paper trails.

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Speaker 2: Is this like lunches at the grove? Like are you

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Speaker 2: at the grove three times a week in Houston?

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Speaker 4: Oh?

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Speaker 7: Gosh no, no, guess I was thinking of the Avalon Diner.

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Speaker 7: That's that's where people go. And you know, so so

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Speaker 7: a lot of the companies, and we saw this with Exon.

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Speaker 7: Exon just dismissed its trader, you know, did what can

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Speaker 7: only be called a bonehead swap at say, seventy dollars

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Speaker 7: a barrel, and so missed out on all the upside.

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Speaker 7: You know, everybody who teaches options trading says, never give

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Speaker 7: away the volatility, and for some reason Exon did that.

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Speaker 7: And the irony is, you know, Lee Raymond just passed away.

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Speaker 7: In a forest cover story, his last cover story before

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Speaker 7: he stepped down, he said, I don't do trading. We

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Speaker 7: don't trade, and hedge at Exon. Why would I need

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Speaker 7: to be an oil company? Would I would just have

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Speaker 7: a couple of traders for the volume, the financial I

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Speaker 7: wouldn't need geologist, I wouldn't need engineers. I wouldn't need

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Speaker 7: finance guys. And so it's really astonishing to see Exon

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Speaker 7: take this huge hit crazy because it's the price has

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Speaker 7: gone up to ninety and one hundred dollars a barrel.

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Speaker 7: Exon hasn't been able to participate in that. Oh, they're

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Speaker 7: still collecting seventy dollars a barrel.

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Speaker 2: You know, Paul, you can go Nuaves's Ranchero's at the

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Speaker 2: Avalon Diner, or you can get the chicken.

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Speaker 5: Fried steak, which I mean, a guy, I love that.

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Speaker 2: This is good, Ess, this is editors recommended.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's quite good. It's quite good.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna do a remote forget about Anne Marie Horden

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Speaker 2: in Houston. We're doing surveillance at the Avalon Diner. Professor Hurst,

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Speaker 2: thank you so much for joining us with serious wisdom

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Speaker 2: here on a gallon of gasoline aparrell of oil.

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Speaker 5: Stay with the US.

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Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Chimpbell Harvey joins us from Duke University. Right now, Cam,

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Speaker 2: congratulations on this work with Rob. Are not you shake

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Speaker 2: to your foundations the core value growth paradigm.

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Speaker 5: If that doesn't work anymore, what does work well?

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Speaker 8: I think we need to look at it differently. And traditionally,

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Speaker 8: what's not a value stock is a growth stock. And indeed,

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Speaker 8: if you look at, for example, the Russell one thousand

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Speaker 8: value and the Russell one thousand growth, and you put

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Speaker 8: a portfolio of those two together, then you get the

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Speaker 8: Russell one thousand, And that means that if the stock

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Speaker 8: is not in the value portfolio, it's in the growth portfolio,

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Speaker 8: which means and this is kind of in a way shocking,

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Speaker 8: that people will be holding expensive and expensive I mean

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Speaker 8: like highpe ratio low growth stocks, and that doesn't make

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Speaker 8: any sense whatsoever. So there's a good reason potentially to

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Speaker 8: hold in like an expensive high growth stock. It's expensive

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Speaker 8: because growth is by but to hold an expensive low

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Speaker 8: growth stock that's baffling. So our paper kind of sketches

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Speaker 8: a new approach where expensive low growth is excluded from

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Speaker 8: any portfolio.

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Speaker 2: What's in storting on one more question than this, because

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Speaker 2: Paul's looking at me, going we got to talk to

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Speaker 2: Kim about SpaceX. But you know, I look Professor Hervey

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Speaker 2: at this and it seems to be a complete shift

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Speaker 2: towards the joke of Stephen Colbert.

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Speaker 8: Growthiness is value dead, No, not at all. So what's

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Speaker 8: dead is investing in expensive low growth stocks in my opinion.

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Speaker 8: But those stocks are losers historically and they should not

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Speaker 8: be in your portfolio. So growth should be measured by

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Speaker 8: growth metrics, sales growth, profitability, growth, R and D growth.

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Speaker 8: Not the stock is expensive, that's not good enough. We

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Speaker 8: need to look at fundamental and that's why our paper

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Speaker 8: is called Fundamental Growth.

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Speaker 5: This is great pity. Just subscribe SpaceX exactly.

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Speaker 4: So Kim, we do have a pretty notable IPO that's

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Speaker 4: going to begin trading today. SpaceX ipo valuation, I think

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Speaker 4: the also tell me is ninety five times revenue. Talk

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Speaker 4: to us about what this kind of deal means to you,

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Speaker 4: and at one of the key issues is what is

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Speaker 4: go to need in the various stock indices out there.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, so this is a stock that is high growth

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Speaker 8: and it will be expensive, and you mentioned one metric.

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Speaker 8: It's expensive, and that often means that the expected return

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Speaker 8: going forward is going to be modest. And indeed, if

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Speaker 8: you look historically at IPOs of large firms and you

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Speaker 8: look at the performance over the next three years, it

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Speaker 8: is essentially flat compared to the market. So the IPO,

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Speaker 8: by the time it gets to IPO, these stocks are

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Speaker 8: often fully priced and all of the action, the explosive

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Speaker 8: growth happened before the IPO when those are so called

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Speaker 8: accredited investors and insiders were transacting in the stock. So

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Speaker 8: what I'm saying is the big upside has already happened.

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Speaker 8: So those that bought the stock for ten dollars or

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Speaker 8: one hundred dollars, they got the explosive growth, and the

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Speaker 8: retail or the average investor is left with the residual,

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Speaker 8: the dregs. They could not buy the stock earlier on

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Speaker 8: because they are not accredited or qualified.

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Speaker 5: Yep.

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Speaker 4: Bloomberg had some reporting yesterday at CAM that the demand

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Speaker 4: from retail investors in the pre market trading exceeded one

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Speaker 4: hundred billion dollars for seventy five billion dollar offering. Here,

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Speaker 4: it sounds like retail nonetheless is going to participate in

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Speaker 4: a big way.

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Speaker 8: So again there's a good reason for that demand. This

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Speaker 8: will be likely the number seven largest stock in the

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Speaker 8: US by total market capitalization. It is reasonable for retail

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Speaker 8: investors to diversify their portfolio, so they want some of

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Speaker 8: the stock. I understand that. So the problem is that

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Speaker 8: they're getting in at a very high price. So SpaceX

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Speaker 8: I'm looking at the drivatives market is one seventy seven already,

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Speaker 8: so and you're not getting in necessarily at the allocation

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Speaker 8: price of one thirty five. You're getting in at the close.

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Speaker 2: I just want to point this out. He has a

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Speaker 2: derivative pricing at Duke. They don't have that at Chapel Hill.

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Speaker 2: They don't have the pricing right now.

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Speaker 5: Event hey, Cam.

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Speaker 4: Another part of this deal, which is really interesting, I think,

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Speaker 4: is just if you're buying stock today in this company,

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Speaker 4: you've bought off on a vision of Elon Musk, of

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Speaker 4: maybe even the cult of Elon Musk, how does that

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Speaker 4: typically play out over time?

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Speaker 8: So it's difficult to draw historical comparisons because this is

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Speaker 8: such a big IPO. Many don't realize that this company

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Speaker 8: is not a new company. It's been around for twenty

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Speaker 8: four years, so it's got of a long track record.

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Speaker 8: People know the company, it's in the news, and it

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Speaker 8: is large. So this IPO is larger than the sum

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Speaker 8: of all the IPOs in twenty twenty five. So it's

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Speaker 8: really hard, given that it's so extraordinary in terms of

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Speaker 8: the size to draw historical comparisons. Many IPOs are small.

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Speaker 8: This is giant. And also there is the possibility that

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Speaker 8: SpaceX will be merged by Tesla to become like a

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Speaker 8: colossal company. So again to draw historical comparisons is difficult.

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Speaker 8: Vision is important, and you are correct that a lot

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Speaker 8: of people are buying the vision. They're buying this vision

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Speaker 8: of extreme growth potential.

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Speaker 2: Yep.

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Speaker 4: And that's ninety five times revenue. Hum, I'm sure you're

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Speaker 4: getting your application this morning.

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Speaker 2: I'm looking for my Okay, it's just not there. Pharaoh

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Speaker 2: God is eight thousand shares as always, Professor Harvey, just

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Speaker 2: for all of us of the Safe Institute, Congratulations to

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Speaker 2: you and your team on this research report.

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Speaker 5: Stay with us.

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Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live

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00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:51,760
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:55,280
Speaker 1: Apple Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube here.

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Speaker 2: The privileges that you to work for Alan Span and

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Speaker 2: far more than that with wonderful academics. Jake Schneider with

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Speaker 2: Atlas Analytics carried on with Chairman green Span the Earth

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Speaker 2: Resource satellite, which was an act of God coming out

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Speaker 2: of Apollo, mostly coming out of the Dakotas. It was

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Speaker 2: a part of my family heritage and we're thrilled to

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Speaker 2: have Jake in here today. We're still using satellites to

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Speaker 2: look at stuff, right.

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Speaker 5: We absolutely are. Well.

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Speaker 6: First, let me say I'm delighted to be here, thank

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Speaker 6: you for having me. My name is Jake Schneider. I

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Speaker 6: am the founder of Atlas Analytics, where we use satellite

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Speaker 6: imagery to predict GDP in real time. So, as you know,

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Speaker 6: and as probably our viewers know, satellite imagery can be

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Speaker 6: the I'm sorry, macroeconomic data comes out with a lag.

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Speaker 6: It was medieval where it's Renaissance.

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Speaker 2: What's to say about our farm farmers flat on their

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Speaker 2: back this summer.

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Speaker 6: Well, let me look into that for you, Tom, I

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Speaker 6: want to come back next time. For now and I'd

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Speaker 6: like to say is that we are forecasting GDP for

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Speaker 6: Q two. That number won't be out for first release

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Speaker 6: until the end of July and final number until the

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Speaker 6: end of September. At about two point five percent. It's

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Speaker 6: doing quite strong. We have our own taxonomy where we

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Speaker 6: use the expenditure approach to GDP to break it into

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Speaker 6: three components, private inventories and net exports and core GDP.

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Speaker 6: Core GDP is looking strong the Federal Reserve.

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Speaker 4: A lot of folks are critical of the Fed, including

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Speaker 4: Cam Harvey from Duke University who we just spoke to

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Speaker 4: this morning. That defend uses I guess real backward looking

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Speaker 4: data as opposed to real time data, which is something

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Speaker 4: that you guys play in. Talk to us about how

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Speaker 4: you think about that real time data versus some of

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Speaker 4: the stuff the government relies on.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, So this is the core crux of the issue

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Speaker 6: with macroeconomic forecasting with macroeconomic data today. When Simon Kusen

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Speaker 6: has created the GDP National Income and Product Accounts in

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Speaker 6: nineteen three four and presented to Congress in nineteen thirty seven.

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Speaker 5: It was a great leap forward. We like to believe that.

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Speaker 6: We have also created a leapboard by using real time

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Speaker 6: imagery from satellites that orbit Earth every ninety minutes and

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Speaker 6: have revisit on same location of five days. We're able

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Speaker 6: to ingest these satellite imageries for the last fifty years,

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Speaker 6: take that data and extract a signal that we use

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Speaker 6: in combination with machine learning, computer vision, and AI to

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Speaker 6: make a forecast a gdpicial time.

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Speaker 2: It sounds really spacey. Give us one example of what

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Speaker 2: you do with that, like where I eighty crosses whatever

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Speaker 2: the eye is out in western Nebraska. Give us one

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Speaker 2: concrete example of how you do that.

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Speaker 6: Well, I loved the idea that you're using concrete and

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Speaker 6: you said concrete as an example. That is what we're

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Speaker 6: looking at. We are looking at four things, the expansion

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Speaker 6: of a built environment, land use, vegetation, and port activity.

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Speaker 6: And it turns out that you can use these real

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Speaker 6: time signals and extra data from it using AI and

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Speaker 6: machine learning to make inference about what's happening in real time.

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Speaker 4: How is your data different from kind of what we

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Speaker 4: do see out of the government.

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Speaker 5: Are your GDP numbers in.

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Speaker 4: Line with what the government ultimately reports. Are they are

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Speaker 4: they different?

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Speaker 5: How does that you're asking about accuracy?

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Speaker 6: So we benchmark against the actual data that comes out GDP,

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Speaker 6: as we know as a quarterly stist that comes out

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Speaker 6: four times a year. I'm going to see your question

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Speaker 6: and raise you a question, which is do you remember

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Speaker 6: what GDP was for Q one first release?

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Speaker 5: No, it was two point zero percent.

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Speaker 6: Okay, we predicted on our YouTube atless Analytics dot info,

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Speaker 6: our YouTube, our substack, and our website two percent two

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Speaker 6: weeks before and it's live time stamped on our YouTube,

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00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:47,120
Speaker 6: so you can see that it was obviously revised down

439
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 6: to one point six, but I think the story still stands.

440
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:54,159
Speaker 6: We are accurate, and we are timely, and we can

441
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 6: give you a real time forecast. So what's happening in

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00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 6: economic activities so that traders and policy makers can have

443
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 6: actual insights ahead of the competition.

444
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:07,200
Speaker 4: What's what's the most predictive I guess flows or information

445
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:09,400
Speaker 4: that you guys track, What's what's best for you guys?

446
00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:10,359
Speaker 5: What works best?

447
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 4: Is it just ships and ports and doing that kind

448
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:13,360
Speaker 4: of thing.

449
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 5: So that actually is a great one.

450
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:20,199
Speaker 6: We do you our second algorithm, Jack joint algorithm.

451
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:21,399
Speaker 5: For containerized knowledge. You don't know.

452
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:26,440
Speaker 6: Jack actually uses satellite imagery is trained with satellites over

453
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 6: the ports and we're looking at TEUs twenty foot equivalent

454
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:32,760
Speaker 6: units coming in and off of the tankers to measure

455
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 6: and map onto what is happening with real time trade floats.

456
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 5: So what's the what's.

457
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:42,359
Speaker 4: Your data telling you today? Because it feels like the

458
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 4: economy is doing pretty darn well, what's what's your data

459
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:46,199
Speaker 4: telling it?

460
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 5: That's exactly what we're seeing.

461
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,639
Speaker 6: So we see core GDP, which in the expenditure approach

462
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:55,000
Speaker 6: of GDP is consumption, government expenditure and fixed investment core GDP.

463
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 6: The core of the economy is at about three percent.

464
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 6: We're subtracting about zero point six percentage points for net

465
00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:06,719
Speaker 6: exports and adding another zero point three So between two

466
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,720
Speaker 6: point five and two point seven headline is what we're seeing.

467
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:13,359
Speaker 6: You might say to me, Tom and go ahead, Well, I'm.

468
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:14,880
Speaker 2: Gonna have to leave it there. We got breaking news

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00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:17,160
Speaker 2: happening right now, Jake, Thank you so much. Jack Scheider

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00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:22,120
Speaker 2: with us. So that was Atalytics today on Satellite at Technology.

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