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Speaker 2: This is a rat A lesson hob the trackleshit one.

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Speaker 3: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable.

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Speaker 4: Humans need fantasy to be human?

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Speaker 1: My goodness, mine prone, bests, relentless, refusing to give up.

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Speaker 1: All right, hit that horn, very bless everybody. Welcome to

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Speaker 1: the Fans Flex podcast from the Action Network and Fantasy

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Speaker 1: webs I'm your host, Chris Raybon, and this is your

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Speaker 1: NFL Week twelve Player Projections episode. Who better to join

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Speaker 1: me to talk NFL player projections than one of the greatest,

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Speaker 1: if not the greatest, to ever do it, They adds

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Speaker 1: maker Sean Kerner.

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Speaker 3: Sean, how's it going pretty good? There's six teams by

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Speaker 3: this week, which I absolutely love. I always talk about

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Speaker 3: like these heavy bye weeks helping us out because there's

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Speaker 3: three fewer matchups to project this week, which just allows

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Speaker 3: us more time to dive into each matchup. I always

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Speaker 3: feel like there isn't enough time every week to die

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Speaker 3: all the matchups, so when we have like this many

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Speaker 3: teams on by I feel like it's easier like dive

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Speaker 3: in the matchups. Plus with like season long DFF, we

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Speaker 3: have to dive deeper in the player pool, which I love.

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Speaker 3: I think we've thrived in that. So I love that

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Speaker 3: it's sixteen by week this week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the same reason I know you like Thursday

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Speaker 1: Night Football, Like, that's the same reason I don't like

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Speaker 1: Thursday Night Football is because I was like, man, I

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Speaker 1: wish I told a little more time. Like last week,

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Speaker 1: if I had a little more time to actually bet

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Speaker 1: some of the things I was projecting, I would have

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Speaker 1: just taken all of the Commander receiver unders. But I

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Speaker 1: was kind of like, all right, well, I gotta project

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Speaker 1: the rest of these things. So yeah, it's tough, but

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Speaker 1: we are going to go through our top fifty's position.

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Speaker 1: Hi guys were high and lo on of course, and

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Speaker 1: then we'll throw out a prop. And last week we

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Speaker 1: had some fun ones. Jared Goff with our quarterback yard

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Speaker 1: is proper. He doubled it, So yeah, stay tuned for that.

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Speaker 1: And before we get started here and talk all things NFL,

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Speaker 1: a reminder that Sewan and I have teamed up with DraftKings,

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Speaker 1: and they have a new way to play fantasy basketball

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Speaker 1: and win some serious cash prizes. It's called DraftKings Pick six. Sean,

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Speaker 1: you and I both love watching the NBA when we

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Speaker 1: have the time during the NFL's evening even but you

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Speaker 1: know it really picks up around Christmas time for us.

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Speaker 1: But we are already playing pick six on DraftKings for

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Speaker 1: the NBA and for anyone that's interested in playing too.

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Speaker 2: Here's how it works.

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Speaker 1: You pick two to six NBA players and choose if

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Speaker 1: they'll have more then or less than of a stat

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Speaker 1: stuff like points, rebounds, assists, points, rebounds and assists points

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Speaker 1: and assists you know, on the combinations. It's peer to peer.

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Speaker 1: You lock in a lineup and you compete against your

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Speaker 1: opponents to win huge cash prizes. And Sean, one of

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Speaker 1: my favorite strategies is to go with point, rebound and

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Speaker 1: assist less than for guys that I think are going

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Speaker 1: to get in bout trouble.

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Speaker 3: How about you, that's a good one. I love attacking

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Speaker 3: the assists ones, specifically looking at their recent you know,

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Speaker 3: potential assists to assist conversion rate. So I like to

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Speaker 3: buy low or sell high end players based on that.

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Speaker 3: So if a player has converted twelve of the last

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Speaker 3: twelve potential assists, you know, that's just their teammates bailing

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Speaker 3: them out making every single shot. I might look for

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Speaker 3: them to go less than their assists the next game. Plus,

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Speaker 3: that's a situation where the market will probably be all

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Speaker 3: over there more than anyway. So it's a great way

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Speaker 3: to kind of buy low, sell high on players and

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Speaker 3: also get leverage against everyone else playing.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I really like the market aspect of it. DraftKings

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Speaker 1: sign up on the DraftKings Pick six at all. Right,

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Speaker 1: let's get into our Week twelve player projections. To start

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Speaker 1: with the quarter back position, Who do you have in

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Speaker 1: your top five?

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Speaker 2: Sean Kerner for week number twelve, I've got.

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Speaker 3: Jalen hurts Lamar Jackson, Jaden Daniels, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I got.

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Speaker 1: Lamar Hurts, Daniels, Herbert, and Anthony Richardson baby Oh. Yet

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Speaker 1: here he was pretty much drafted like it. You know,

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Speaker 1: we talked about on our waiver pot, drafted as the

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Speaker 1: QB six for much of the summer. But I really

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Speaker 1: like this matchup indoors and remember a few outdoor games

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Speaker 1: this week with some weather, so that is something you

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Speaker 1: want to take into consideration, especially in tiebreaker situations. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: Sean and I are factoring all that into our projections

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Speaker 1: and rankings as is, so be sure to check those out.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, who are you high in i QB this week?

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Speaker 3: I'm high on Justin Herbert again. He's my QB four

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Speaker 3: was high on him last week, and he went off

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Speaker 3: again for almost three hundred yards two touchdowns in sixty

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Speaker 3: five rushing yards. Again, he's been tapping in his rushing

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Speaker 3: upside a lot more now that he's finally a healthy

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Speaker 3: He was dealing with injury after injury, it seemed like

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Speaker 3: at the beginning of the season. So he's rushed for

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Speaker 3: thirty more yards in three the last four games. Has

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Speaker 3: also thrown for over two hundred and seventy five yards

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Speaker 3: and multiple touchdowns and three the last four. And this

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Speaker 3: is just a great matchup here against the Ravens where

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Speaker 3: you know he's probably going to be asked to drop

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Speaker 3: back even more and it's a pass funnel matchup. So again,

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Speaker 3: he's a top five option this week and going forward,

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Speaker 3: you know, with him tapping his rushing upside, you know,

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Speaker 3: he's back in the QB one mix, which it seemed

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Speaker 3: like for the longest time he was outside of, you know,

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Speaker 3: the top twenty, kind of an afterthought, but lately he's

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Speaker 3: back to being, you know, the top five sort of

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Speaker 3: upside quarterback he's always been.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And on our Waiver Wire Pod four Week twelve,

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Speaker 1: which is out now, we were talking about how every

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Speaker 1: year around this time, most guys are banged up and

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Speaker 1: some guys just look like menimum boys out there just

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Speaker 1: athletically speaking, and I think Herbert you have to add

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Speaker 1: him to that list for the way he's scrambling.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we didn't see this pretty much his entire career.

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Speaker 1: We knew he could do it, but he's legitimately breaking

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Speaker 1: ankles out there with some of these runs over these

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Speaker 1: last couple of weeks and he's putting up, you know,

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Speaker 1: with Lamar Jackson totals on the ground. Now you get

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Speaker 1: to you know, you get past you know, thirty yards

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Speaker 1: and you're starting to do something with your legs as

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Speaker 1: the quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, he's not missing much with the arm either.

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Speaker 1: So it's been a long time coming, but it looks

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Speaker 1: like we're finally back. And shouts to shouted Greg Roman

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Speaker 1: for realizing what he had there and and kind of

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Speaker 1: adjusting his game, because that's something you I think we

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Speaker 1: were all worried about it in the fancy community. Just

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Speaker 1: was was justin Herbert going to kind of be trapped

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Speaker 1: in his Roman offense, and he was for a couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks, but I think it had more to do

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Speaker 1: with just everyone's health and whatnot. And now that guys

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Speaker 1: are clicking, it looks really good. And speaking of guys

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Speaker 1: who you know, long time coming, I already mentioned it

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Speaker 1: Anthony Richardson, but I'll go deeper into why I'm high

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Speaker 1: on him this week against the Detroit Lions. So you've

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Speaker 1: seen quarterbacks take a little bit of time off, come

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Speaker 1: back and just look a lot better. I mean Bryce

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Speaker 1: Young is like the most recent example now He's no

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Speaker 1: like Richardson is so much better than Young. But Young

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Speaker 1: looked competent, and he didn't look competent before, and Richardson

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Speaker 1: he looked excellent. You know, after that little hiatus where

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Speaker 1: he got benched against the Jets. Twenty of thirty two

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Speaker 1: hundred and seventy two passing yards and no issues with

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Speaker 1: the completion percentage, no issues with turnovers, touchdown, no picks,

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Speaker 1: and a couple on the ground, including the game winner.

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Speaker 1: He had an eighty eight percent on target throw rate,

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Speaker 1: which is top ten percentile among all quarterbacks starts this season.

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Speaker 1: I thought that he was making great decisions in terms

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Speaker 1: of okay, am I going to scramble.

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Speaker 2: I don't think he scrambled once.

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Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, he got the ball out

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Speaker 1: where it needed to go, read the field. I thought

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Speaker 1: the play calling was good. You start to see, you know,

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Speaker 1: easy completions. You still had his signature deep completions. He's

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Speaker 1: still giving you the rushing upside. And now he has

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Speaker 1: to go do it against a team that can actually

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Speaker 1: get a first down before there's three minutes left in

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Speaker 1: the second half. In the first excuse me, in the

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Speaker 1: second quarter, because the Lions are not going to be

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Speaker 1: like the Jets, who just kind of took half the

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Speaker 1: game off on offense. So this could be a massive shootout.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the Lions could put up forty or fifty.

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Speaker 1: This is an indoor game, and Richinson did all this

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Speaker 1: last week without his left tackle Bernard Raymond, with Johnathan

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Speaker 1: Taylor really providing nothing.

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Speaker 2: In terms of efficiency.

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Speaker 1: Twenty four carriers fifty seven yards, so this is a

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Speaker 1: pretty high upside spot.

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Speaker 2: Even though Detroit has been good in past fence.

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Speaker 1: I love some of the guys they got back there,

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Speaker 1: like Branch and whatnot, but.

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Speaker 2: This is kind of how you have to, you know,

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Speaker 2: beat Detroit.

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Speaker 1: You're not going to really be able to run on

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Speaker 1: them with the traditional run game. But five quarterbacks that

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Speaker 1: are faced Detroit have gone for at least twenty nine

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Speaker 1: rushing yards. Four of those five over thirty four rushing yards.

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Speaker 1: So this and then the explosives because you know the

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Speaker 1: Lions are gonna be able to match you on the

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Speaker 1: other side, So this is this could be a big shootout.

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Speaker 1: The totals over fifty, which is rare in twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 1: especially for a non primetime game because you know it's

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Speaker 1: less public money. And whatnot. So this is a pretty

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Speaker 1: pretty decent bet for a shootout. Love that we are

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Speaker 1: going to finally get some Anthony Richardson in the top

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Speaker 1: you know, five or six quarterbacks, even though he didn't

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Speaker 1: live up to his draft capital. All right, what about

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Speaker 1: quarterback that you're low on for Week twelve.

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Speaker 3: I'm the lower on brought Purty this week at Green

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Speaker 3: Bay and last year, I feel like I talked about

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Speaker 3: a few times just how sninky his rushing upside is.

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Speaker 3: He just didn't really tap into that his first couple

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Speaker 3: of seasons, but we've seen that this year. Had another

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Speaker 3: solid forty yards and a touchdown with his legs last week.

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Speaker 3: So that's four rushing touchdowns and twenty five or more

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Speaker 3: rushing yards in three of the last four games. But

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Speaker 3: I think he's gonna start to dial back on that

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Speaker 3: a little bit. With Christian McCaffrey back, I feel like

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Speaker 3: one of the reasons he was scrambling more is he

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Speaker 3: didn't have his safety valve and just dumping it off

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Speaker 3: to Christian McCaffrey. Plus, you know, Perty's dealing with his

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Speaker 3: shoulder injury. Can't trust a thing, Shanahan says. So we're

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Speaker 3: gonna have to just monitor this closely. Hopefully he's okay,

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Speaker 3: but probably another reason for him to take it a

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Speaker 3: little bit easier and stay in the pocket more this week. Plus,

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Speaker 3: Christian McCaffrey doesn't have a touchdown yet this year, but

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Speaker 3: they're going to come over these less next several weeks

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Speaker 3: and that's going to start to take away from Party's

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Speaker 3: touch on upside. So a lot of different little things.

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Speaker 3: Why I'm a little bit lower on Party this week.

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Speaker 3: So he's my QB thirteen, more of a high end

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Speaker 3: QB two option this week than you know, QB one.

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Speaker 1: We've seen Christian McCaffrey play quarterback before, Parties looked like

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Speaker 1: the better runner than McCaffrey. Maybe they should just switch

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Speaker 1: it up, just switch yeah, yeah to QB and then

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Speaker 1: Party be the safety valve, you know, hey, I.

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Speaker 2: Mean Wat Jennings. What's better than Deebo Samuel too?

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Speaker 1: Right, everything's kind of switched up on the nine this year,

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Speaker 1: so and who knows it could work, But yeah, I'm

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Speaker 1: Party is my QB. I think it's eleven, so I'm

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Speaker 1: kind of right there with you. Usually he's in my

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Speaker 1: top five or six. Yeah, yeah, no, he's my QB thirteen,

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Speaker 1: So yeah, right there with you, right, and there could

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Speaker 1: be some weather in that game too again, yeah right, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: we're up to week twelve, so you got to start

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Speaker 1: checking those weather for orcaster outdoor games. And it's not

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Speaker 1: just like what a precipitation is not going to be

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Speaker 1: a major issue, but it's when it starts combining with

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Speaker 1: wind or even just wind alone. And you know you

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Speaker 1: have kickers in this game, but the win can also

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Speaker 1: affect the deep passing game. And both of the quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: in this game do rely quite a bit on the

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Speaker 1: deep passing game in Jordan Love and Brock Purty. So

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Speaker 1: definitely something to monitor the weather in Green Bay, Wisconsin

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Speaker 1: for the Niner and Packer matchup. I'm well on another

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Speaker 1: game that another quarterback in another game that could have

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Speaker 1: some weather. That's Russell Wilson. He's the ECR QB fifteen

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Speaker 1: and he's just outside my top twenty.

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Speaker 2: I think I.

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Speaker 1: Don't think you want to go to the well with

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Speaker 1: him this week. You know, he had a pretty underwhelming

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Speaker 1: performance against the Ravens from fancy purposes, obviously, from real

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Speaker 1: life purposes, it's just another win for those Steelers. It's

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Speaker 1: the dog against the Baltimore Ravens. However, short turnaround, potential

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Speaker 1: gusts of wind up to thirty to forty miles per

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Speaker 1: hour in Cleveland on Thursday.

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Speaker 2: Night this week.

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Speaker 1: Also, you're just not going to kind of know about

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Speaker 1: the status and some other potential streaming quarterbacks or you

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Speaker 1: know guys on the French SID. I just don't think

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Speaker 1: you want to lock Wilson in you know tier lineup

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Speaker 1: on a Thursday and a bad weather spot.

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Speaker 2: Total is thirty six.

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Speaker 1: It's a divisional matchup and very unlikely to shoot out.

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Speaker 1: I think even even with you know Jamis on the

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Speaker 1: other side, I still think it's a it's.

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Speaker 2: A low probability shootout.

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Speaker 1: If we know how these Steelers tend to play on

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Speaker 1: the road With Tomlin, the Unders has been pretty profitable

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Speaker 1: ever since he became their coach, and Russ has been

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Speaker 1: under thirty pass attempts in three or four starts with

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Speaker 1: the Steelers. He's been efficient, but he's also been getting

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Speaker 1: into some lucky spots like that Mike Williams touchdown. For example,

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Speaker 1: That's Javin Warren should have had a touchdown on the

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Speaker 1: previous possession, but he fumbles at the one yard line.

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Speaker 2: Until now the steeers got to come back.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't think Wilson should be near fantasy

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Speaker 1: lineups this week. He's averaging two hundred and thirty three

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Speaker 1: and a half passing yards, just three and a half

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Speaker 1: rushing yards, and now they're talking about potentially working in

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Speaker 1: justin fields more. We saw that at the end of

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Speaker 1: the game in Pittsburgh. You know, he ran like a

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Speaker 1: little option kind of play around the end to seal

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Speaker 1: the game. But I think he might be involved even

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Speaker 1: you know, more than that this week, or at least

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Speaker 1: that's that's the danger based on what we're hearing from

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Speaker 1: the coaches. So a lot of reasons to fade Russ

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Speaker 1: this week in my opinion. All Right, quarterback prop last week,

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Speaker 1: I think it was goff over two twenty four and

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Speaker 1: a half and.

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Speaker 2: Almost doubled it.

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Speaker 1: So let's see if we can get somebody to double

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Speaker 1: or do something interesting this week.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna go. Let's see, let's go with CJ.

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Speaker 1: Stroud got that long touchdown called back because of course

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Speaker 1: he did. Last Week's had a very odd season because

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Speaker 1: sometimes he looks great and sometimes he looks like he's

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Speaker 1: just overthinking it out there in the pocket, so and

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Speaker 1: the numbers really haven't been there for him, So I'm

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Speaker 1: going to go with overall quarterback fantasy finish this week.

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Speaker 1: Let's go over under fourteen and a half.

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Speaker 3: Let's see, I'll go I guess inside the top fourteen,

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Speaker 3: so under fourteen and a half, just with sixteen's on

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Speaker 3: by Where do you have Tommy? I'm curious and Tommy

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Speaker 3: cutlets now Starry, I have him twelve. Where do you

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Speaker 3: have him ranked?

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Speaker 1: I'm fifteenth, So it's kind of on that fringe. I

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Speaker 1: have Jordan Love, Rock, Perdy, Gino Smith, c J. Stroud,

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Speaker 1: Sam Darnold from twelve to sixteen, and I feel like

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Speaker 1: all of those guys have massive upside but also kind

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Speaker 1: of like question marks, So it's a tough tier in

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Speaker 1: my opinion, to sort out. So I'm just kind of

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Speaker 1: curious as to what you're doing with the crowd because

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Speaker 1: he's been disappointing. But again, everyone saw him get that

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Speaker 1: touchdown call back as well, so it's.

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Speaker 3: Like, yep, yeah, that's it's a good line. But again,

338
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Speaker 3: there's six teams on by Tommy. DeVito's now starting Russell Wilson,

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Speaker 3: like you mentioned with that, you know, potential weather He

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Speaker 3: and Winston, it might be tougher for them to crack

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Speaker 3: the top fourteen. Cooper Rush again. You mentioned we might

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Speaker 3: see Trey Lance Gardner Minshew might get benched for the

343
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Speaker 3: fourth time this year. I'm still waiting up to get

344
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Speaker 3: benched for just two more games to help me out

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Speaker 3: on that season long prop.

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Speaker 2: But there's just some shaky guys below.

347
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Speaker 3: But I agree. I'm a lower on Stroud as well,

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Speaker 3: so I'm not like super confident about this, but I'll

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Speaker 3: take inside the top fourteen for this week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm and to be clear, I'm I love C. J. Stohn.

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Speaker 1: It's just more I'm having a tough time projecting him

352
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Speaker 1: because it's it.

353
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Speaker 2: And also the Titans defense is.

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Speaker 1: Kind of hard to get a read on too, because

355
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Speaker 1: I think they've outperformed expectations, but they're getting more and

356
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Speaker 1: more banged up each and every week.

357
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Speaker 2: So it's just just the odd spot all around this.

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Speaker 1: This this Titan Texans game gonna that's what I really

359
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Speaker 1: you know, you talk about we have extra time, That's

360
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Speaker 1: what I'm really looking forward to digging, digging into because

361
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Speaker 1: already some interesting things I see there.

362
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Speaker 2: You know, Gibbons is going to be out for the Titans.

363
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Speaker 1: Bryce Oliver is a guy who's every time he's on

364
00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:41,720
Speaker 1: the field, he makes a catch Westbrook a Keena keeps

365
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Speaker 1: rolling getting on a tangent here. But uh, I say

366
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Speaker 1: that to say, you got CJ. Stroud inside the top

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Speaker 1: fourteen this week.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I lost on his passing our prop last night

369
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Speaker 3: I had the under two forty. I had a parlay

370
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Speaker 3: where I had and again I said, I'm not betting

371
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Speaker 3: against c J. Stroud, I'm just betting against Cooper Rush

372
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Speaker 3: going off, and that's kind of what led to it.

373
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Speaker 3: But I had a parlay on our new parlay express

374
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Speaker 3: account of Texans defensive score Joe Mixon over his rushing yards.

375
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Speaker 3: I almost made that like an a like one hundred

376
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Speaker 3: and ten yards in CJ. Stroud's under passing yards. Unfortunately,

377
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Speaker 3: got the the fumble six way later in the game,

378
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Speaker 3: after CJ. Stroud had already cleared it. But if that

379
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Speaker 3: happened a little bit earlier, I would have had a

380
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Speaker 3: shot there. But I mean Slowik ran a air raid

381
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Speaker 3: offense for the first three and a half quarters of

382
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Speaker 3: that game, which was nice to see finally, but not

383
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Speaker 3: good for my problem.

384
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you actually mentioned that he was like, Yeah,

385
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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna have to cut it loose. So that's

386
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Speaker 1: another thing that's interesting about it, this match up with

387
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Speaker 1: the Titans. I think it go a lot of ways.

388
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Speaker 1: And you know, it's almost like a post hype kind

389
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Speaker 1: of situation now because I think, you know, now it's

390
00:20:57,080 --> 00:21:00,840
Speaker 1: not even Nico's first game back anymore. So Yeah, really

391
00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:04,960
Speaker 1: really interesting spot. Yeah, we check you out to see

392
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Speaker 1: if you have any more picks or I do on

393
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Speaker 1: that Parling Express account as well. But let's get into

394
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Speaker 1: a running back Top five twelve.

395
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Speaker 3: We got Christian McCaffrey, Devon A Chan, Joe Mixon, Saquon Barkley,

396
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:21,359
Speaker 3: and Kyn Williams.

397
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Speaker 1: I got Mixon, McCaffrey, Barkley, a Chan, and King Henry Nice.

398
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:31,680
Speaker 2: Who are you hi on?

399
00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:37,399
Speaker 3: I'm high on Naji Harris this week at Cleveland. Like

400
00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 3: we mentioned, we could see some snow here for Thursday

401
00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:43,840
Speaker 3: night football, and which means we could see a big

402
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:47,080
Speaker 3: workload for Nause. It was at the end of their

403
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Speaker 3: Week eighteen win last year. Mike Tollman said that they

404
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,639
Speaker 3: love to feed Nause when there's bad weather. Well, there

405
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 3: might be bad weather here, so what better time than

406
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 3: to feed Naji Harris. We're getting late in the season.

407
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:04,320
Speaker 3: You mentioned, you know, teams are banged up. He is

408
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:07,440
Speaker 3: the most durable running back in the league. I would

409
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:10,240
Speaker 3: say so, even if he's dealing with ailments, he's still

410
00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 3: healthier than everybody out there. Plus, you know Jalen Warren,

411
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:17,119
Speaker 3: he was iffy last week with that back injury. He

412
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Speaker 3: still played, played well, had you know, a lot of touches,

413
00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:24,359
Speaker 3: but they had elevated Jonathan Ward before the game, which

414
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:26,520
Speaker 3: you know was a hint that maybe they weren't so

415
00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:28,359
Speaker 3: confident that Warren was gonna be able to suit up.

416
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Speaker 3: So it's a short week Thursday night, it's gonna be

417
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:34,120
Speaker 3: freezing cold. He's dealing with a back injury. Might not

418
00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 3: make sense to have him rotating in and out as much.

419
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Speaker 3: So I think we could just see nause heavy like

420
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:42,879
Speaker 3: entire drives here. So this is a week if you

421
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Speaker 3: have Nasee Hares fire him up. You know he's up

422
00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 3: mid range RB two. But I think even for like

423
00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:51,160
Speaker 3: props things like that, he's somebody I'm gonna be looking

424
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Speaker 3: to attack here.

425
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think what really helps nause is I mean

426
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Speaker 1: you said Jamon Warren played well.

427
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Speaker 2: That might have been one of.

428
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Speaker 1: The first time so a year that he played well.

429
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,640
Speaker 1: Nagi's not playing him this year, and I think going

430
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:04,960
Speaker 1: into the year a lot of people were kind of

431
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,400
Speaker 1: down on Naje felt like Warren could even overtake him,

432
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:09,480
Speaker 1: and that, I mean probably has a lot to do

433
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:12,639
Speaker 1: with Warren's injuries too, but hasn't come to fruition. Nase

434
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:15,920
Speaker 1: always gets better this time of year. They not even

435
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:17,720
Speaker 1: just weather. They just tend to feed him at this

436
00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:19,520
Speaker 1: time of the year when guys, you know, the rest

437
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:21,639
Speaker 1: of the Weekue is banged up and you're just getting

438
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 1: this you know, monster coming at you each and every place.

439
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 1: So I could see a Nase you know run to

440
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:29,919
Speaker 1: kind of close out the season. So I like that

441
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:33,760
Speaker 1: you're getting ahead of this on a Thursday night matchup

442
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 1: that could just have a lot more running period than

443
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:40,399
Speaker 1: the Steers, even though they haven't been super pass heavy

444
00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:43,879
Speaker 1: by any stretch. With Russell Wilson, we know they they

445
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:47,680
Speaker 1: don't mind going forty forty five runs if they can,

446
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 1: and I don't think they're gonna get, you know, much

447
00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:53,000
Speaker 1: resistance on the from the Browns offense to keep up

448
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 1: against that Steeler d So yeah, like Nase as well,

449
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:01,280
Speaker 1: and kind of low on lower on lower, let's see,

450
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:05,320
Speaker 1: and kind of lower on Jalen Warren as well. I

451
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:07,240
Speaker 1: just don't think he's looked great most of the year,

452
00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:11,040
Speaker 1: and I think now that Patterson's back kind of complicates

453
00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:13,520
Speaker 1: things for Warren a little bit more than it does

454
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,280
Speaker 1: for Nausey. And I don't think that goal on fumble

455
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:19,879
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago helped quite honestly, all right,

456
00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:24,399
Speaker 1: I am high on Brian Robinson Junior this week, big

457
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:30,440
Speaker 1: home favorite minus ten Washington long layoff after playing on Thursday,

458
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 1: which is important for a guy like Robinson Junior who

459
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:35,959
Speaker 1: was coming off an injury. Really has been on and

460
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:38,359
Speaker 1: off the injury report for which seems like the past

461
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 1: six or seven weeks. So I think this is a

462
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 1: good spot for him extended rest. And Washington has been

463
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:51,000
Speaker 1: struggling for the past few games. You know, probably part

464
00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 1: of it is Jay and Daniels rib injury, part of

465
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:56,159
Speaker 1: it is some tougher matchups, but now you're back in

466
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:59,359
Speaker 1: a familiar spot. Is a big favorite. So this is

467
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:04,119
Speaker 1: a game script that favors Robinson Junior over Austin Eckler,

468
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:07,480
Speaker 1: who's more of the pass catching back and this Dallas

469
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 1: defense has just been getting shredded on the ground. You know,

470
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:13,760
Speaker 1: even though they got Micah Parson's back, teams aren't really

471
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:17,159
Speaker 1: needing to get into these must pass situations. Dallas is

472
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:20,680
Speaker 1: not a big threat to get out to a huge

473
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 1: lead and put you in those situations. So I think

474
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:26,720
Speaker 1: this is a pretty high floor, high ceiling spot for

475
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:29,879
Speaker 1: Brian Robinson Junior. And every time this guy steps on

476
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 1: the field seems like he scores a touchdown for these

477
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:34,159
Speaker 1: Washington Commanders.

478
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:36,040
Speaker 2: So I really like him.

479
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:38,199
Speaker 1: And he's been playing well in the passing game too,

480
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:40,960
Speaker 1: when he gets the opportunity. I just think he's playing

481
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 1: well overall. And this big, physical guy who finally getting

482
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:48,639
Speaker 1: healthy on a team that you know could dominate in

483
00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:51,159
Speaker 1: some areas, I think he might be another guy that

484
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 1: we start looking at, like, oh man, he's starting to

485
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 1: look really good out there, because he's looked pretty good

486
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:56,119
Speaker 1: most of the year and he's been bagged up. So

487
00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 1: I think this is a good time to get Brian

488
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:01,400
Speaker 1: Robinson back in lineups.

489
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:04,040
Speaker 2: He was kind of on that fringe the last few weeks,

490
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:06,120
Speaker 2: more of an RB two.

491
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 1: Flex in the mid twenties, but this week he is

492
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 1: my RB number twelve to open the week Dallas twenty

493
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:16,720
Speaker 1: seventh in DVOA against the Run.

494
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:18,960
Speaker 3: All right, who you loan?

495
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 2: Are running back Sean Cream Hunt?

496
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:25,960
Speaker 3: But it's complicated. Last week I mentioned in my tears

497
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:27,760
Speaker 3: he said it might be a good time to sell

498
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:31,680
Speaker 3: high on Hunt if you can, obviously, because Isaiah Pachecka

499
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:34,680
Speaker 3: could return as soon as this week. Even if Pacheka

500
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:38,399
Speaker 3: returns this week, he's probably gonna get eased back in.

501
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 3: So with this matchup against Panthers, you know, Hunt may

502
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:44,800
Speaker 3: still be able to provide RB three flex value or

503
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 3: even more in a great spot. And if Pachecko ends

504
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,080
Speaker 3: up getting ruled out, which could still happen, Hunt's going

505
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 3: to be an RB one option. So this is a

506
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 3: mixed bag here, but just be on the lookout if

507
00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 3: you've been banking on Cream Hunt like I have been

508
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 3: in a couple of leagues the past few weeks, that

509
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 3: could be coming to an end with Pacheco's return looming

510
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:07,880
Speaker 3: as soon as you know this week. Potentially. The other

511
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 3: guy down on is DeAndre Swift. Tough matchup here against

512
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 3: the Vikings, but he's been trending down subtly the past

513
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 3: few weeks just because he hasn't been as efficient in

514
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 3: some easier matchups of late. Plus his receiving usage is

515
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:27,959
Speaker 3: also you know, trending down. But last week Roshawn Johnson

516
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 3: was mixing in on short yardage even goal line situations,

517
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 3: which is obviously going to eat into swi's touchdown upside.

518
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:38,280
Speaker 3: So he has all these little subtle factors going against him,

519
00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:41,359
Speaker 3: and now he has a really tough matchup against the Vikings.

520
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:43,879
Speaker 3: So this is a week where he's you know, a

521
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:46,440
Speaker 3: low round RB two. But again we have six teams

522
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 3: on a buy this week, so that's a pretty low

523
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:50,960
Speaker 3: rank for him. You know, he was able to cash

524
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:52,960
Speaker 3: in with a you know, a touchdown last week, but

525
00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 3: very concerning trend for him recently with the tough matchup.

526
00:27:57,640 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 3: Who knows, maybe you have some better options this week.

527
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:01,879
Speaker 3: Maybe not because so many teams are on by, but

528
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:03,720
Speaker 3: he's the guy that's been kind of moving down my

529
00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:04,800
Speaker 3: rinks week to week.

530
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 2: Here.

531
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's more of a in that fringe RB two

532
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 1: spot I think this week because of like you mentioned,

533
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:14,600
Speaker 1: just Johnson getting a lot of the goal line looks

534
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:17,879
Speaker 1: that could eat into his value because he's not always

535
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:19,640
Speaker 1: going to be able to rush for a long touchdown.

536
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:22,120
Speaker 1: Now you want guys in yourn and who can't do that, obviously,

537
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 1: but Minnesota has also been really tough a matchup against

538
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 1: the run. Number one in defensive DVOA against the run,

539
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:33,160
Speaker 1: So this is the toughest matchup. So yeah, I think

540
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 1: it's time to maybe get off the swift train for

541
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 1: at least this week until we see how the short

542
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:41,800
Speaker 1: yards goal line kind of sorts itself out as well

543
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 1: as the passing game.

544
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 2: I'm go with Gus Edwards.

545
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 1: He is the RB thirty four in ECR, which surprised

546
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 1: me a little bit because I know he had the

547
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 1: game where he came back against the Titans and for

548
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 1: the first about three and a half quarters he was

549
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 1: the Chargers lead back. It was until the last two

550
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 1: drives of the game, which were essentially garbage time, where

551
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:08,120
Speaker 1: Dobbins overtook him and ended with a five carry lead,

552
00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 1: but Edwards still got ten carries. And then he goes

553
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 1: into the Cincinnati matchup and he plays eleven snaps. I

554
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 1: just don't think it's gonna happen for Edwards because he's

555
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:23,280
Speaker 1: not getting the thing that I think was really key

556
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 1: for him, and because he had played with Greg Roman before,

557
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:29,680
Speaker 1: so you assume that some of that touchdown equity, that

558
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 1: goal line usage was gonna carry over, but they keep

559
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:34,880
Speaker 1: taking him out of the game. He doesn't have a

560
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 1: carry inside the five all a year. Hassan Haskins has

561
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 1: been the alternate short yardage back if it's not JK.

562
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 2: Dobbins staying in the game.

563
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 1: So both of those guys, Dobbins and Haskins have four

564
00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 1: carries inside the five. Last week saw Edwards take it

565
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 1: to the from the seventeen to the eight, the eight

566
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:52,720
Speaker 1: to the four.

567
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:54,520
Speaker 2: Then Haskins comes and takes it to.

568
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 1: The one, gets stuffed, so he gets two carries in

569
00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,200
Speaker 1: a row, and then Dobbins comes in at ten and

570
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:01,720
Speaker 1: it's going to the Touchdow. Yeah, I don't know what's

571
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:04,320
Speaker 1: going on, but that's not good for Gus Edwards. It's

572
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:08,360
Speaker 1: like ever since Todd Munkin decided not to hand him

573
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 1: the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs and the playoffs

574
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 1: when their run defense was their weakest link, Gus Evers

575
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 1: has never recovered from that, and he's missed time.

576
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 2: They tried to make up a thing.

577
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:22,640
Speaker 1: At the beginning of the year, two games in a

578
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 1: row he was the lead back and then kind of

579
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 1: got hurt. Dobbins jumps him and they try to do

580
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,400
Speaker 1: it again, and I was kind of surprised against the

581
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 1: Titans that he was as involved as he was.

582
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:36,200
Speaker 2: But he just hasn't all great.

583
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:41,000
Speaker 1: He's his career low in yards after contact by a mile,

584
00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:46,800
Speaker 1: a career low in yards per carry, fifty four carries already,

585
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 1: none longer than eleven yards. So just a guy that

586
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:54,200
Speaker 1: I don't want even in a flex spot. I think

587
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 1: there are better options because he's also averaging point zero

588
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,000
Speaker 1: two yards per round.

589
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:03,320
Speaker 2: Not point two point zero, and that's that's kind of

590
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 2: his forte.

591
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:06,960
Speaker 1: He's never really been a big pass catcher out of

592
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 1: the backfield, but this could be a situation where it

593
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:13,959
Speaker 1: just continues to kind of fade out because he's going

594
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 1: to be thirty next April. So even if he gets

595
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 1: another game with double digit carries, he's a guy I'm

596
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 1: going to try to just avoid because I just I'm

597
00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 1: not seeing anything that's making me confident in him, you know,

598
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 1: being consistent in any type of way in his batfield

599
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 1: at this point.

600
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:32,360
Speaker 2: All right, what are you doing for the running.

601
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:36,280
Speaker 3: Back PROPLEM, Well, let's stick with this Chargers backfield. JK.

602
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:41,480
Speaker 3: Dobbins total rushing yards just continues to play well, exceed

603
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:44,800
Speaker 3: expectations weekend week out. But this is a tough spot

604
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 3: against his former team. So it's a revenge game, but

605
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 3: this is a tough matchup for him on the ground.

606
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:52,200
Speaker 3: Curious where you have him projected, but I'm going to

607
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:55,720
Speaker 3: set his line at fifty and a half rushing yards here.

608
00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 2: That sounds let's see, I think I have it right

609
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:00,720
Speaker 2: around there. Go under that.

610
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:04,600
Speaker 1: I actually have it about twelve for about eleven and

611
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 1: a half carries eleven to twelve carries about forty five

612
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 1: rushing yards. Because his efficiency against Baltimore, I have it,

613
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:14,040
Speaker 1: you know, he's like not not even at four or

614
00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 1: for per carry, I don't think.

615
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 3: So.

616
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:16,720
Speaker 2: He had tough matchup.

617
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:19,680
Speaker 1: He has been getting by in some explosive so he's

618
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:23,040
Speaker 1: in another candidate for aggression, especially with the Chargers being

619
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:26,000
Speaker 1: more willing and just healthier to throw throw it around

620
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 1: the yard now and Herbert picking up some of the

621
00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:30,960
Speaker 1: slack you know with his legs as well. So both

622
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 1: Charger running backs trending down. But I would much rather

623
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 1: roll with Dobbins for any revenge related narrative. DFS plays props,

624
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 1: whatever it may be. I just think he's he looks

625
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 1: a lot better out there, and I mean that could

626
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 1: end at any time. You know, he's had terrible fuck

627
00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:51,720
Speaker 1: with injury, but yeah, God, at least he's still, you

628
00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 1: know it, technically more close to his athletic prime where

629
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:58,720
Speaker 1: his gust as I mentioned, he'll be thirty. So I

630
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 1: think Dobbins, if anything, could separate more from Gus in

631
00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:05,400
Speaker 1: the coming weeks, and because he could potentially be a

632
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:08,480
Speaker 1: league winner because he's kind of been in those twenties

633
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 1: lately too and in the ranks, hasn't been up a ton,

634
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 1: but he's been playing pretty well or I was putting

635
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:15,960
Speaker 1: up pretty good numbers at the end of the day.

636
00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:19,320
Speaker 1: Looking for weekly projections from me and Sean Kerner, the

637
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 1: only place you'll find them is at Fantasy labs dot com.

638
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 1: You'll get our weekly player projections every week, plus access

639
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 1: to a suite of tools, including our lineup optimizer and

640
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:34,320
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641
00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:37,960
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642
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:42,240
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643
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644
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646
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:57,840
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647
00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:02,360
Speaker 1: Who you got in the five for Week twelve?

648
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 2: At wide out?

649
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 3: I got j Justin, Jefferson, Cooper Cup, Aman Ross, Saint Brown,

650
00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:09,479
Speaker 3: Pooka Nakua, and AJ Brown.

651
00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:12,440
Speaker 1: I got Aman Ross Saint Brown number one, Jefferson two,

652
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:14,720
Speaker 1: AJ three, Tyreek, Ko.

653
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 3: And Uh and Cooper Cup Nice.

654
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 2: Who are you high on at wide receiver?

655
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 3: I'm high on Jackson Smith Nijigba. He's my wide receiver

656
00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:29,080
Speaker 3: like around fifteen by now. I know everybody that has

657
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:30,839
Speaker 3: them knows you got to start him at this point.

658
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:33,239
Speaker 3: But I had mentioned a couple weeks ago that I

659
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:35,960
Speaker 3: think we're actually witnessing his true breakout right now, and

660
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:40,319
Speaker 3: I might comp for him. Last year was Aman Ross

661
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 3: Saint Brown. I think that's sort of his upside, that's

662
00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:46,360
Speaker 3: kind of his skill set. And landing with the Seahawks

663
00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:49,880
Speaker 3: was tough because they already have DK Metcalf and Tyl Lockett.

664
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:53,400
Speaker 3: But even though DK Metcalf is back and looked excellent

665
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 3: last week Tyler Lockett's usage has really fallen off these

666
00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:01,240
Speaker 3: past few weeks. It's kind of helped fuel or maybe

667
00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:04,279
Speaker 3: because of it's kind of like a chicken and egg thing,

668
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 3: but Tyler Lockett has seen less than a ten percent

669
00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 3: target rate in three straight games, so that's that's been

670
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 3: kind of what's fueling this breakout for JSN. And he's

671
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:19,400
Speaker 3: just really good. So back to back game massive games.

672
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:24,000
Speaker 3: You know, last week he saw eleven targets, ten catches

673
00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:26,239
Speaker 3: for one hundred and ten yards. They're finally giving him

674
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:29,120
Speaker 3: some design rush attempts, so that's good to see as well.

675
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:31,880
Speaker 3: But I think he's ready for takeoff. He's you know,

676
00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 3: a mid range wide receiver two right now and going forward,

677
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:38,839
Speaker 3: so just you know, I finally we get to see

678
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 3: him have his true breakout I felt was coming for

679
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:44,319
Speaker 3: some time now. And the other guy I'm high on

680
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:49,520
Speaker 3: is Jaden Reid. He's my wide receiver twelve to open

681
00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:53,200
Speaker 3: the week, coming off a pretty down week at least

682
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:56,319
Speaker 3: usage wise. He's still kind of touchdown, but only two

683
00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:59,800
Speaker 3: catches for twenty three yards, had a season low sixty

684
00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:03,000
Speaker 3: routes run rate, which is really the knock with Red.

685
00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:06,840
Speaker 3: He's never really going to be a full time player. Plus,

686
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:09,160
Speaker 3: you know the Packers all the wide receivers are healthy

687
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:11,440
Speaker 3: right now, so probably going to see a little bit

688
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:14,360
Speaker 3: less playing time than usual from him. But when it

689
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:16,640
Speaker 3: comes to these games where the Packers could be in

690
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:19,520
Speaker 3: a trailing game script or losing game script, that's really

691
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:21,239
Speaker 3: when Reed thrives. That's when he's going to see the

692
00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:24,399
Speaker 3: most playing time, the most targets. So in all three

693
00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:28,080
Speaker 3: losses this year for the Packers, he's cleared one hundred

694
00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 3: and ten receiving yards. So the fact that you know,

695
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:34,719
Speaker 3: the Packers are five point dogs right now bodes well

696
00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:36,640
Speaker 3: for his upside. So I think he's a player where,

697
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:38,600
Speaker 3: you know, you might be kind of disappointing his week

698
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:40,960
Speaker 3: last week, but I am treating him like a low

699
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:42,799
Speaker 3: end wide receiver one this week. I think he's going

700
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:44,839
Speaker 3: to bounce back with a big game here.

701
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:47,759
Speaker 2: But the Packers are five point dogs. I thought they're

702
00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:50,600
Speaker 2: two and a half point favorites. Yeah, it's favored by

703
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 2: two and a half. Bro they're purty is questionable. Yeah,

704
00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 2: I mean I think he's play but yeah, the Packers

705
00:36:58,200 --> 00:36:58,839
Speaker 2: are at home too.

706
00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:02,279
Speaker 3: What I was looking there, This is a game where

707
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:06,920
Speaker 3: you know, if you know they get trailing, that'll help.

708
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:10,359
Speaker 3: So I was looking at something different either way. Yeah,

709
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:13,640
Speaker 3: barn Arras are a good opponent that will push Jane

710
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:15,920
Speaker 3: Reed into more playing time in my opinion.

711
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:18,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, he plays an all one to one personnel.

712
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:22,479
Speaker 1: It's just some weeks if you're in a certain type

713
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:25,399
Speaker 1: of situation where you're going with the two tight ends.

714
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:28,719
Speaker 1: But even that's not as likely because you don't have

715
00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:31,480
Speaker 1: musk Grave. It doesn't look like he's coming back anytime soon,

716
00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:34,319
Speaker 1: so you still have Ben Simms as the number two

717
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 1: tight end. I think last week was just kind of

718
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 1: an odd week because Christian Watson had so many big

719
00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 1: plays that they didn't need to throw them much. So

720
00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:45,080
Speaker 1: Jordan Love only had But you have like seventeen attempts

721
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 1: or something like that Jared Gofflin stat line there. So

722
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 1: if you only have so many plays, it's gonna distort

723
00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:54,160
Speaker 1: the numbers a little bit. So, yes, he had a

724
00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:56,160
Speaker 1: sixty percent routes run rate, but that's not the same

725
00:37:56,200 --> 00:37:58,960
Speaker 1: as the sixty percent routes run rate. You have like

726
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:02,879
Speaker 1: seventy eight plays and you just were not getting put

727
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:04,719
Speaker 1: on the field in one one person out that that

728
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 1: would be different. But he's playing the snaps that we

729
00:38:08,120 --> 00:38:10,480
Speaker 1: need him to play. So I think he's in Uh,

730
00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:12,040
Speaker 1: he's in a good spot each and every week because

731
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:14,600
Speaker 1: he's he's explosive and he's getting deep targets. Kind of

732
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:17,719
Speaker 1: reminds me of when Victor Cruz used to play in

733
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:19,759
Speaker 1: the slot for the Giants, but he used to get

734
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:22,839
Speaker 1: a few deep targets every game. Like, Uh, Jayden Reid

735
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:25,440
Speaker 1: is getting a ton of deep targets. He's near the

736
00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:28,880
Speaker 1: league lead in that category, So that that always helps

737
00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:32,480
Speaker 1: with if you're gonna not be a completely full time player.

738
00:38:33,600 --> 00:38:38,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was looking at the Vikings Bears spread my

739
00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:45,600
Speaker 3: last week and yeah, yeah, this time I tweeted out

740
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:52,480
Speaker 3: because I had that Texans defensive touchdown uh in my parlay,

741
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:54,319
Speaker 3: and I kept calling it a pick six all day

742
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 3: and it was a fumble recovered sex I just call

743
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:01,759
Speaker 3: when someone was economy. I'm like, look, my brain is

744
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:04,879
Speaker 3: fright right now. I was calling defensive touchdown pick six

745
00:39:04,920 --> 00:39:08,600
Speaker 3: all day, just short term, So I apologize, But yeah, yeah,

746
00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:11,560
Speaker 3: the Packers are obviously favored by a couple points at

747
00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:14,719
Speaker 3: home against the and Anders, but but I do haven't

748
00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:17,680
Speaker 3: projected to trail at a seven percent higher rate than

749
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:19,680
Speaker 3: expected on the season. So that's kind of what I

750
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 3: was getting at with more likely a trailing game script

751
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:24,880
Speaker 3: than not from what they're used to.

752
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, because the forty.

753
00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:31,400
Speaker 1: Nine ers are a competent offense and Jordan Love pretty

754
00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 1: much gives away seven points every week. Somehow every seems

755
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:37,960
Speaker 1: like he's drowing to turning it over in some new

756
00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:42,920
Speaker 1: crazy way. But uh, I like Lad mcconkeye this week

757
00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:46,759
Speaker 1: by at wide receiver coming off the big game one

758
00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:50,720
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty three yards against the Cincinnati Bengals, another

759
00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:56,280
Speaker 1: primetime spot form against Baltimore. Baltimore defense allowing the most yards,

760
00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:59,959
Speaker 1: most touchdowns, and most fantasy points too, opposing wide receive

761
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:04,839
Speaker 1: mentioned justin Herbert and the Charges throwing more. Their pass

762
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:08,759
Speaker 1: rate above expectation is way up really since about week

763
00:40:09,320 --> 00:40:11,960
Speaker 1: coming off that bye and week I think it was

764
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:16,239
Speaker 1: five or six, So this is a great spot for him.

765
00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:19,319
Speaker 1: Baltimore does like to play some man covers. They got

766
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 1: some talented guys, but they've still been giving up numbers.

767
00:40:21,719 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 1: But even if he finds a Marlon humph for Autum

768
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:30,080
Speaker 1: or Hamilton, in terms of yards per route against man coverage,

769
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:36,400
Speaker 1: there are a j Brown Cohoga Akua, Justin Jefferson, and

770
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:38,920
Speaker 1: the Ladi McConkie at number four in yards per route.

771
00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:41,399
Speaker 1: Those four guys are the only four that averaged over

772
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:46,160
Speaker 1: four yards per route according to PFF. So Ladi McConkie

773
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:50,520
Speaker 1: already in the midst of his breakout this year. I

774
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:53,120
Speaker 1: know we both liked him before the season starts as

775
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 1: kind of the Charger receiver to own over for the

776
00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:58,960
Speaker 1: long term, and he's paid that off very well over

777
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:02,280
Speaker 1: his last seven games, averaging four point seven catches seventy

778
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:05,960
Speaker 1: two yards. He scored three touchdowns his last five games.

779
00:41:06,239 --> 00:41:09,080
Speaker 1: He's got five or more receptions in four of those

780
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:12,279
Speaker 1: five games, so he's getting a lot of volume in

781
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 1: This is a spot where, unlike pretty much every Charger

782
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:19,840
Speaker 1: game except the Bengals last week, this is a game

783
00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:23,640
Speaker 1: where you expect the Chargers to have to throw, not

784
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:26,279
Speaker 1: just do it because they want to up there, pass eight,

785
00:41:26,360 --> 00:41:28,799
Speaker 1: because guys are healthy. This is a game with this

786
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:33,000
Speaker 1: Baltimore offense. They've been putting up points every single week,

787
00:41:33,120 --> 00:41:36,080
Speaker 1: except you know, against the Steelers, which kind of expected

788
00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:40,080
Speaker 1: if you follow that series. Just going back to divisional matchup,

789
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:43,279
Speaker 1: it's always low scoring and close between those two. But

790
00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:46,319
Speaker 1: this Baltimore offense still top of the league, and it's

791
00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:49,879
Speaker 1: Baltimore pass defense still bottom of the league. So I

792
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:52,279
Speaker 1: love some lad McConkey. This week, he is my wide

793
00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:56,600
Speaker 1: receiver eleven. He's wide receiver twenty two, So peresson that's

794
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:59,040
Speaker 1: going to go up, but he is. He's a wide

795
00:41:59,040 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 1: receiver one this week.

796
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:02,719
Speaker 3: Yep, I'm with you. He's my wide receiver nine. E

797
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:06,160
Speaker 3: cr is crazy right now? All right? Who you low on?

798
00:42:06,360 --> 00:42:09,040
Speaker 1: I mentioned, I think to you in another pod that

799
00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:11,040
Speaker 1: you know last week I ended up loan all the

800
00:42:11,840 --> 00:42:13,680
Speaker 1: Commander receivers.

801
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:15,239
Speaker 2: I think you're going to keep that going.

802
00:42:15,840 --> 00:42:18,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, same, I was low on Terry McLaurin. I thought

803
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:21,640
Speaker 3: about bringing him up on our pod last week. I

804
00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:25,840
Speaker 3: decided not to because he had either ninety five yards

805
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:28,719
Speaker 3: or two touchdowns in six straight games. So I didn't

806
00:42:28,719 --> 00:42:32,280
Speaker 3: want to reason to bring him up, right, No, sure enough,

807
00:42:32,520 --> 00:42:36,319
Speaker 3: sure enough one catch for ten yards obviously, you know,

808
00:42:36,320 --> 00:42:38,360
Speaker 3: I think he's gonna bounce back here with a squeaky

809
00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 3: wheel game. They don't want to get him, you know,

810
00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:44,320
Speaker 3: pissed off and have another dot here, but his Easers

811
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:47,840
Speaker 3: wide receiver eight. I just can't get there unless you

812
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:50,279
Speaker 3: just mainly give him, you know, five catches for six

813
00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:53,360
Speaker 3: yards and a touchdown. But I don't do that. So

814
00:42:54,520 --> 00:42:56,640
Speaker 3: you know, this is a game against the Cowboys where

815
00:42:56,680 --> 00:42:59,480
Speaker 3: if he doesn't get his early, he might not get it.

816
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:01,800
Speaker 3: I agree with you. I'm high on Brian Robinson junior.

817
00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 3: I think this is going to be a big Brian

818
00:43:04,080 --> 00:43:06,480
Speaker 3: Robinson junior game. Maybe I don't know. We see Jad

819
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:09,839
Speaker 3: and Daniel start to run again, that's going to take

820
00:43:09,840 --> 00:43:12,120
Speaker 3: away from Terry. So this is a game where he

821
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:14,080
Speaker 3: just might not see a ton of volume. He could

822
00:43:14,160 --> 00:43:16,880
Speaker 3: still you know, post big numbers with just a few targets.

823
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:22,080
Speaker 3: But you know, as I mentioned, Cliff Kingsbury offensive has

824
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:24,640
Speaker 3: typically trended down this time of year, So I don't

825
00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:27,719
Speaker 3: know if it's just the scheme, you know, posing defenses

826
00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 3: can just like pick it apart this time. Hear what's

827
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:33,120
Speaker 3: going on. But it's definitely a concern, and I would

828
00:43:33,160 --> 00:43:36,040
Speaker 3: say Terry's still a must start this week. I'm a

829
00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:37,919
Speaker 3: bet lower on him. He's like a low end wide

830
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:40,560
Speaker 3: receiver two and we really haven't seen a dud from

831
00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:42,920
Speaker 3: him all season. But I think I wouldn't be shocked

832
00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:44,960
Speaker 3: if we do see you know, one or two more

833
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:47,920
Speaker 3: duds the rest of the way, at least more than

834
00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:49,239
Speaker 3: we've seen a date. So I just think he has

835
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:52,319
Speaker 3: a wide range of outcomes than people realize. Still think

836
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:54,000
Speaker 3: he has a massive ceiling. But I'm just a little

837
00:43:54,000 --> 00:43:57,200
Speaker 3: bit lower on him than ECR again this week.

838
00:43:57,760 --> 00:43:59,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, you have to say you have him with a

839
00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:00,359
Speaker 2: low end widercon two.

840
00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:03,120
Speaker 1: I have him wide receiver thirteen, so I'm not at

841
00:44:03,160 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 1: wide receiver eight, but I'm right there kind of a

842
00:44:06,760 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 1: What I'm hearing is that they want to get Daniels

843
00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:11,800
Speaker 1: going this week too, So like I think they'll build

844
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:15,000
Speaker 1: the lead with Daniels and then you know, Robinson will

845
00:44:15,040 --> 00:44:17,319
Speaker 1: kind of be the guy. You'll probably see some McNichols

846
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:18,880
Speaker 1: like Eckwer's kind of the guy would.

847
00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:21,720
Speaker 2: Worry about the most. But I'd be a little.

848
00:44:21,520 --> 00:44:24,759
Speaker 1: Worried about fading Terry just because he is so obviously

849
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:27,719
Speaker 1: like the face of his UH pass offense outside of

850
00:44:27,800 --> 00:44:30,160
Speaker 1: Daniels that like, I don't I don't think, for example,

851
00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:31,759
Speaker 1: that they're looking to say, oh, we gotta get Noah

852
00:44:31,800 --> 00:44:35,080
Speaker 1: Brown going, you know, so if they're the guy that

853
00:44:35,120 --> 00:44:37,440
Speaker 1: they get going is gonna be Terry, So he'll probably

854
00:44:37,480 --> 00:44:40,239
Speaker 1: find a way to catch like six balls on like

855
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:41,160
Speaker 1: a sixty.

856
00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:41,759
Speaker 2: Three percent route rate.

857
00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:45,840
Speaker 1: Like you know, the years the years round, his snaps

858
00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:49,919
Speaker 1: haven't been that consistent wide receiver one level either. He's

859
00:44:49,920 --> 00:44:53,799
Speaker 1: been around in the seventy percent in snap rates most

860
00:44:53,840 --> 00:44:55,439
Speaker 1: week as well. So there are a lot of things

861
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:57,520
Speaker 1: projection wise that give him.

862
00:44:57,560 --> 00:44:58,440
Speaker 2: A lower floor.

863
00:44:58,520 --> 00:45:00,600
Speaker 1: So I do see where you're coming from, though, But yeah,

864
00:45:00,920 --> 00:45:03,480
Speaker 1: I just have no faith in his Dallas defense at

865
00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:03,759
Speaker 1: this point.

866
00:45:03,760 --> 00:45:05,440
Speaker 2: I just think he've given up.

867
00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:08,600
Speaker 3: You're right, That's why fades fades a strong word. He's

868
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:10,439
Speaker 3: still got a plan if you have him, But don't

869
00:45:10,480 --> 00:45:13,560
Speaker 3: be shocked if he has a lower floor than he's

870
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:16,560
Speaker 3: shown so far. And I wouldn't fade him in receiving yards,

871
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:19,480
Speaker 3: but if they offer like a four and a half

872
00:45:19,600 --> 00:45:22,719
Speaker 3: reception prop that's the area I think I would fade him.

873
00:45:22,719 --> 00:45:24,960
Speaker 3: I could see him having you know, four catches for

874
00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:28,600
Speaker 3: eighty yards something like that. But just you know, it's

875
00:45:28,360 --> 00:45:30,880
Speaker 3: hard to see too much volume in this matchup.

876
00:45:31,120 --> 00:45:32,120
Speaker 2: All right, let's go.

877
00:45:32,080 --> 00:45:36,239
Speaker 1: To the guy on one one and that's another guy

878
00:45:36,239 --> 00:45:39,160
Speaker 1: in this Pittsburgh Cleveland game. Now, this one is not

879
00:45:40,040 --> 00:45:42,439
Speaker 1: is much about just the weather, is I just think

880
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:45,919
Speaker 1: the whole situation was bound for some regression. We're starting

881
00:45:45,920 --> 00:45:48,480
Speaker 1: to see it already. That's Cedric Tillman going up against

882
00:45:48,480 --> 00:45:52,120
Speaker 1: the Steelers. So he cooled off last week with a

883
00:45:52,200 --> 00:45:55,800
Speaker 1: three catch forty seven yard game, which you know, compared

884
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:58,440
Speaker 1: to what Judy did, compared to what Elijah Moore did.

885
00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:00,680
Speaker 2: And even to Djoku it much.

886
00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:05,600
Speaker 1: But you look at Pittsburgh and they are number two

887
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:09,640
Speaker 1: in DVA defending passes to the offensive left, which is

888
00:46:09,640 --> 00:46:12,080
Speaker 1: where Tilman lines up on the majority of his routes,

889
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:16,479
Speaker 1: usually where you see Joey Porter Junior, Minka Fitzpatrick over there.

890
00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:18,560
Speaker 1: So this is a tough matchup, and then the weather

891
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:21,160
Speaker 1: just kind of compounds it because it might not be

892
00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:24,359
Speaker 1: as you know, kind of shootout atmosphere like they had

893
00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 1: indoors against the Saints last week. This is an outdoor game.

894
00:46:27,200 --> 00:46:31,040
Speaker 1: The Steelers pride themselves on defense. They're probably not going

895
00:46:31,120 --> 00:46:33,319
Speaker 1: to give up a huge number and probably not going

896
00:46:33,360 --> 00:46:35,640
Speaker 1: to score a huge number either. I can see this

897
00:46:35,760 --> 00:46:40,200
Speaker 1: game script going a lot like the Ravens Steelers game

898
00:46:40,280 --> 00:46:43,040
Speaker 1: last week, where the Ravens were on this roll, going

899
00:46:43,080 --> 00:46:46,839
Speaker 1: over every total, and then it's just an eighteen to

900
00:46:46,920 --> 00:46:49,719
Speaker 1: sixteen game or whatever. The kind of score wasn't that one?

901
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:52,680
Speaker 1: So I think you know, Tilman got people a bunch

902
00:46:52,680 --> 00:46:55,919
Speaker 1: of good weeks with Jamis. He may have some more

903
00:46:56,239 --> 00:47:00,399
Speaker 1: going forward, but against the Steelers in divisional matchup, it's

904
00:47:00,440 --> 00:47:02,920
Speaker 1: just not the time you want to be rostering opposing

905
00:47:02,960 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 1: wide receivers, especially on a Thursday night game with the

906
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:10,120
Speaker 1: total of thirty six. So don't not really feeling the

907
00:47:10,160 --> 00:47:12,760
Speaker 1: passing games, but don't like the matchup either for Tilban.

908
00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:14,160
Speaker 2: So he's he's inside.

909
00:47:14,160 --> 00:47:17,400
Speaker 1: He's an ECR wide receiver twenty six, which you know

910
00:47:17,440 --> 00:47:20,040
Speaker 1: I get because that's kind of he's popped up to

911
00:47:20,080 --> 00:47:22,960
Speaker 1: that point based on a couple of big weeks. But

912
00:47:23,120 --> 00:47:26,000
Speaker 1: he's my wide receiver thirty nine. He's barely cracking the

913
00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:30,600
Speaker 1: top forty for this matchup. All right, to see where are.

914
00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:33,640
Speaker 2: We going for the prop.

915
00:47:34,600 --> 00:47:37,840
Speaker 1: Let's go with a guy that I always have trouble projecting.

916
00:47:38,520 --> 00:47:39,640
Speaker 2: We've talked about him.

917
00:47:39,680 --> 00:47:45,719
Speaker 1: I know he's probably still in a lot of people's

918
00:47:45,880 --> 00:47:51,600
Speaker 1: start sit conundrums. That's Calvin Ridley. He's been just a

919
00:47:51,680 --> 00:47:54,760
Speaker 1: maddening player all year. Then he kind of gave us,

920
00:47:55,080 --> 00:47:57,680
Speaker 1: gave us some hope with a two touchdown game a

921
00:47:57,719 --> 00:48:01,000
Speaker 1: couple of weeks a couple of weeks ago, but I'm

922
00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:05,000
Speaker 1: pretty low on him again again this week. So I'm

923
00:48:05,040 --> 00:48:09,120
Speaker 1: curious to see where you have him against the Uston Texans,

924
00:48:09,120 --> 00:48:12,160
Speaker 1: which I gave up a pretty good game to see

925
00:48:12,200 --> 00:48:15,880
Speaker 1: thee Lamb coming over an injury. So it's definitely some

926
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:20,000
Speaker 1: potential here. But Nick Westbrook, Akina can't go for a

927
00:48:20,120 --> 00:48:23,800
Speaker 1: ninety eight yard touchdown if he wants to kind of

928
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:28,960
Speaker 1: maximize it. I'm gonna say it is receiving yardage line

929
00:48:30,040 --> 00:48:32,200
Speaker 1: at sixty and a half.

930
00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:35,680
Speaker 3: That's a good line. He did have that fifty yard

931
00:48:35,680 --> 00:48:41,040
Speaker 3: touchdown called back, and yeah, I mean the Texans defense

932
00:48:41,080 --> 00:48:43,520
Speaker 3: did give up a ton of yards, but typically they're

933
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:48,840
Speaker 3: very good at, you know, preventing separation completion percentage. So

934
00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:53,000
Speaker 3: this is a tough matchup where I would take Ridley's

935
00:48:53,080 --> 00:48:56,319
Speaker 3: under his receptions, but yards is always tougher. So I

936
00:48:56,360 --> 00:48:59,040
Speaker 3: agree it's a good line. I'm gonna I'm gonna have

937
00:48:59,080 --> 00:48:59,839
Speaker 3: to go under here.

938
00:49:01,280 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 2: Yeah it is.

939
00:49:02,239 --> 00:49:04,080
Speaker 1: It is higher than I would have said it, like,

940
00:49:04,160 --> 00:49:06,720
Speaker 1: just like I have it, yeah, in the mid fifties,

941
00:49:06,760 --> 00:49:09,600
Speaker 1: but I figured I think it'd be a little higher

942
00:49:09,560 --> 00:49:11,799
Speaker 1: on them because you knew you got a touchdown going

943
00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:15,680
Speaker 1: back and everything, but it's been a frustrating year if

944
00:49:15,719 --> 00:49:17,960
Speaker 1: you have Calvin really on your fantasy team and you

945
00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:19,880
Speaker 1: just never know what you're getting out of the quarterback position,

946
00:49:20,040 --> 00:49:21,719
Speaker 1: and it's just been up and down.

947
00:49:22,040 --> 00:49:24,520
Speaker 2: And before we move on, here a quick announcement.

948
00:49:25,000 --> 00:49:28,839
Speaker 1: Action Network is running back our annual Black Friday sale,

949
00:49:29,000 --> 00:49:32,080
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950
00:49:32,280 --> 00:49:37,160
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951
00:49:37,320 --> 00:49:41,200
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952
00:49:41,200 --> 00:49:45,120
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953
00:49:45,239 --> 00:49:48,200
Speaker 1: access to all of the picks and projections for myself,

954
00:49:48,520 --> 00:49:53,480
Speaker 1: Sean Kerner, Stucky and the whole Action Network squad. It's

955
00:49:53,560 --> 00:49:57,880
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956
00:49:58,400 --> 00:49:59,920
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957
00:50:00,480 --> 00:50:03,160
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to tight.

958
00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:09,120
Speaker 1: End and no Taysom Hill this week, unfortunately for everyone

959
00:50:09,160 --> 00:50:14,200
Speaker 1: who picked him up, but we do have twenty six

960
00:50:14,239 --> 00:50:14,880
Speaker 1: teams playing.

961
00:50:15,000 --> 00:50:16,880
Speaker 2: So who are your top five for Week twelve?

962
00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:22,040
Speaker 3: I got Travis Kelce, brought Bauers, Kate Aughton, Trey McBride,

963
00:50:22,120 --> 00:50:23,400
Speaker 3: and George Kittle.

964
00:50:24,040 --> 00:50:26,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, same guys, for me, just slightly different what I

965
00:50:26,840 --> 00:50:32,759
Speaker 1: got Kelsey Bauers with Bride Kittle. Obviously monitor Kittle's status.

966
00:50:33,080 --> 00:50:37,440
Speaker 1: He missed last week but is expected to return this week.

967
00:50:37,840 --> 00:50:41,279
Speaker 1: I believe he's slated to practice on Wednesday, so it

968
00:50:41,280 --> 00:50:42,120
Speaker 1: should be good to go.

969
00:50:42,160 --> 00:50:44,480
Speaker 2: But like you said, Kyle Shanahan, you.

970
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:47,320
Speaker 1: Never know with some of these, with some of the injuries,

971
00:50:47,360 --> 00:50:50,080
Speaker 1: so to monitor that one. But who are you high

972
00:50:50,120 --> 00:50:51,440
Speaker 1: on Kerner at tight end?

973
00:50:51,520 --> 00:50:52,120
Speaker 2: For me twelve?

974
00:50:52,400 --> 00:50:58,120
Speaker 3: Maybe they should ask Jordan Mason if right? Thanks your report. Well,

975
00:50:58,160 --> 00:51:00,799
Speaker 3: the guy that just missed my top five, John new

976
00:51:00,880 --> 00:51:04,600
Speaker 3: Smith is who I'm high on. He's my tight end six.

977
00:51:06,360 --> 00:51:10,360
Speaker 3: Just he's had really good, you know, underlying usage lately,

978
00:51:10,400 --> 00:51:13,120
Speaker 3: he's looked great. You talked about that on the Waivers

979
00:51:13,160 --> 00:51:16,680
Speaker 3: Pod last week. Six catches, one hundred and two yards,

980
00:51:16,680 --> 00:51:20,839
Speaker 3: two touchdowns. Almost as importantly, a season high ninety two

981
00:51:21,840 --> 00:51:24,680
Speaker 3: routes run rate. He's now seen a twenty percent or

982
00:51:24,719 --> 00:51:28,600
Speaker 3: higher target rate in seven straight games. You know, everyone's

983
00:51:28,640 --> 00:51:30,600
Speaker 3: trying to figure out why, you know, Tired Kill and

984
00:51:30,680 --> 00:51:34,640
Speaker 3: Jaylen Waddle continue to underperform. It's because there's a legit

985
00:51:34,760 --> 00:51:37,840
Speaker 3: number three target in this offense in John new Smith

986
00:51:37,880 --> 00:51:41,000
Speaker 3: and you know, Devon a Chan's getting his his targets

987
00:51:41,040 --> 00:51:43,440
Speaker 3: as well, so it's just a more spread out offense.

988
00:51:43,480 --> 00:51:47,040
Speaker 3: And John new Smith has looked really good. He's thriving

989
00:51:47,120 --> 00:51:51,440
Speaker 3: this offense. So assuming you know, this utage sticks and

990
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:53,279
Speaker 3: to us stays healthy, he's going to be a tight

991
00:51:53,360 --> 00:51:56,759
Speaker 3: end one the rest of the way. But this week specifically,

992
00:51:57,200 --> 00:51:59,319
Speaker 3: he's in the mid range tight end one discussion, and

993
00:51:59,440 --> 00:52:01,520
Speaker 3: you know it's a revenge game against the Patriots, so

994
00:52:01,960 --> 00:52:03,600
Speaker 3: I think he's going to keep it rolling this week.

995
00:52:03,640 --> 00:52:05,680
Speaker 3: And you know, kudos if you're able to pick him

996
00:52:05,760 --> 00:52:07,040
Speaker 3: up last week or a few weeks ago.

997
00:52:07,520 --> 00:52:10,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's looking excellent out there, and he's one of

998
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:13,840
Speaker 1: the few tight ends that's capable of doing wide receiver

999
00:52:13,960 --> 00:52:17,640
Speaker 1: things and he's you know, like MIKEASICKI I think it

1000
00:52:17,680 --> 00:52:19,200
Speaker 1: was more of a flash in the pan while t

1001
00:52:19,320 --> 00:52:20,080
Speaker 1: Higgins was out.

1002
00:52:20,280 --> 00:52:21,759
Speaker 2: They were just using him in a different way.

1003
00:52:21,760 --> 00:52:24,480
Speaker 1: But the fact that John new Smith has been able

1004
00:52:24,520 --> 00:52:27,360
Speaker 1: to maintain a high target per route rate and be

1005
00:52:27,560 --> 00:52:29,680
Speaker 1: as productive as he has with the kind of ceiling

1006
00:52:29,680 --> 00:52:32,440
Speaker 1: games that he's had with Tyreek Hill on the field

1007
00:52:32,640 --> 00:52:36,120
Speaker 1: and with Jaylen Watto on the field, And we gave

1008
00:52:36,160 --> 00:52:39,279
Speaker 1: it Devon e Chan on the field that is promising

1009
00:52:40,000 --> 00:52:43,160
Speaker 1: for him to keep it up compared to a guy

1010
00:52:43,239 --> 00:52:44,800
Speaker 1: like Kasiki, who I think you know, now that T

1011
00:52:44,960 --> 00:52:47,640
Speaker 1: Higgins is back, you're not really gonna hear too much

1012
00:52:48,440 --> 00:52:51,200
Speaker 1: you know about him because his role just completely changes.

1013
00:52:51,280 --> 00:52:55,360
Speaker 1: So yeah, like like John dow a lot just going

1014
00:52:55,400 --> 00:52:58,440
Speaker 1: forward for the rest of the season at this point.

1015
00:52:59,160 --> 00:53:02,920
Speaker 1: For me, couple of guys, I'll mention, it's kind of

1016
00:53:02,920 --> 00:53:05,480
Speaker 1: a weird week after the top five again kind of

1017
00:53:05,480 --> 00:53:09,080
Speaker 1: feels like there's no one you have like true confidence

1018
00:53:09,080 --> 00:53:12,359
Speaker 1: in in the six through twelve range, but there's all

1019
00:53:12,360 --> 00:53:15,719
Speaker 1: these guys that there are the kind of more like

1020
00:53:15,840 --> 00:53:17,080
Speaker 1: low end tight end ones.

1021
00:53:17,280 --> 00:53:19,080
Speaker 2: But it's a it's a weird week.

1022
00:53:19,200 --> 00:53:22,319
Speaker 1: So my tight end seven and eight Hunter Henry and

1023
00:53:22,440 --> 00:53:26,799
Speaker 1: Dallas Goddard Henry is going against the Miami defense that

1024
00:53:27,320 --> 00:53:32,080
Speaker 1: is dead last in DVLA to tight ends.

1025
00:53:32,640 --> 00:53:33,880
Speaker 2: They have given.

1026
00:53:33,719 --> 00:53:37,640
Speaker 1: Up just massive numbers to the last few tight ends

1027
00:53:37,640 --> 00:53:41,239
Speaker 1: they faced. Of course, you know, Bowers set the the

1028
00:53:41,280 --> 00:53:43,799
Speaker 1: tight end catch record last week against them, but they've

1029
00:53:43,840 --> 00:53:49,840
Speaker 1: just been given up catches, yards, touchdowns overall, thirty six

1030
00:53:50,520 --> 00:53:55,000
Speaker 1: catches for three hundred forty one yards, two touchdowns, in

1031
00:53:55,040 --> 00:53:58,040
Speaker 1: their last four games alone to opposing tight end, So

1032
00:53:59,160 --> 00:54:03,240
Speaker 1: like the matchup for him and then got it against

1033
00:54:03,239 --> 00:54:07,160
Speaker 1: the Rams. This is a team that is number twenty

1034
00:54:07,239 --> 00:54:10,279
Speaker 1: four in DVOA against the tight end the zone heavy, so.

1035
00:54:10,520 --> 00:54:11,760
Speaker 2: Should be a good matchup.

1036
00:54:12,080 --> 00:54:17,080
Speaker 1: Now a little riskier only because Philadelphia is gonna first

1037
00:54:17,080 --> 00:54:19,960
Speaker 1: and foremost try to run the ball, but got her

1038
00:54:20,200 --> 00:54:22,359
Speaker 1: when they do pass. He pass bots just one point

1039
00:54:22,440 --> 00:54:25,719
Speaker 1: six percent of the time. He was a little banged up,

1040
00:54:25,760 --> 00:54:28,760
Speaker 1: so the long layoffs should help him approach one hundred

1041
00:54:28,760 --> 00:54:32,399
Speaker 1: percent snap rate, which usually translates to a route run

1042
00:54:32,440 --> 00:54:34,719
Speaker 1: about eighty five to ninety percent of the time. He's

1043
00:54:34,719 --> 00:54:38,040
Speaker 1: been more in that seventy percent range over the last

1044
00:54:38,080 --> 00:54:42,080
Speaker 1: couple of games, and he's averaging almost at his career

1045
00:54:42,160 --> 00:54:44,920
Speaker 1: high in yards per route two point two this season,

1046
00:54:44,920 --> 00:54:46,160
Speaker 1: couple tenths of a point off.

1047
00:54:46,160 --> 00:54:47,120
Speaker 2: It's only don't be.

1048
00:54:47,080 --> 00:54:50,960
Speaker 1: Only the second time he averaged over two in a season,

1049
00:54:51,239 --> 00:54:55,279
Speaker 1: and in his last four non injured games, averaging six

1050
00:54:55,480 --> 00:54:57,920
Speaker 1: catches for seventy nine and a half yards.

1051
00:54:58,320 --> 00:55:01,320
Speaker 2: He's gotten to the end zone as well, and some.

1052
00:55:01,239 --> 00:55:04,640
Speaker 1: Of it was due to maybe uh there were got

1053
00:55:04,760 --> 00:55:07,800
Speaker 1: like Devonte Smith was missing some time and a J.

1054
00:55:07,920 --> 00:55:08,840
Speaker 2: Brown was missing sometimes.

1055
00:55:08,840 --> 00:55:11,040
Speaker 1: But also you gotta remember this is a new scheme,

1056
00:55:11,440 --> 00:55:14,080
Speaker 1: so it's not I don't think it was just those

1057
00:55:14,200 --> 00:55:16,960
Speaker 1: those factors kind of contributing to Goddard putting up some

1058
00:55:17,000 --> 00:55:17,640
Speaker 1: good numbers.

1059
00:55:17,960 --> 00:55:20,719
Speaker 2: I think the scheme change has done him some good.

1060
00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:22,759
Speaker 1: And you know, Jalen Hurts is able to find no

1061
00:55:22,880 --> 00:55:25,600
Speaker 1: more uh and you know through his progressions and whatnot.

1062
00:55:25,640 --> 00:55:28,440
Speaker 1: So I like Goddard is a kind of an underrated

1063
00:55:29,080 --> 00:55:32,520
Speaker 1: h tight end with a massive ceiling in this spot

1064
00:55:32,560 --> 00:55:35,080
Speaker 1: because the Rams have been shaking against tight ends. This

1065
00:55:35,120 --> 00:55:38,360
Speaker 1: is another high high total game. And we always expect

1066
00:55:38,440 --> 00:55:40,359
Speaker 1: jal When Hurts to get like those two touch push

1067
00:55:40,400 --> 00:55:42,799
Speaker 1: touchdowns every game, but there's some variance to that.

1068
00:55:42,880 --> 00:55:44,439
Speaker 2: Anytime he doesn't get one, it kind.

1069
00:55:44,320 --> 00:55:46,799
Speaker 1: Of opens it up for uh, you know, all these

1070
00:55:46,840 --> 00:55:48,719
Speaker 1: receivers that you kind of overlook a little bit because

1071
00:55:48,719 --> 00:55:49,719
Speaker 1: you also got you know.

1072
00:55:50,120 --> 00:55:50,680
Speaker 3: Uh a J.

1073
00:55:50,840 --> 00:55:54,000
Speaker 1: Brown always in the top five, and then your mind

1074
00:55:54,000 --> 00:55:55,359
Speaker 1: goes to Davante Smith next.

1075
00:55:55,360 --> 00:55:57,600
Speaker 2: So I think Goddard is a guy who's really overlooked.

1076
00:55:57,640 --> 00:55:59,920
Speaker 1: But what helps him a lot too is John Dodson

1077
00:56:00,400 --> 00:56:03,000
Speaker 1: pretty much out there running wind sprints. Is the as

1078
00:56:03,040 --> 00:56:05,560
Speaker 1: a third wide receiver when he's out there, so it

1079
00:56:05,640 --> 00:56:10,120
Speaker 1: kind of condenses it the target share, uh to to

1080
00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:12,880
Speaker 1: you know, their their top options, in which Gottard is

1081
00:56:12,920 --> 00:56:13,160
Speaker 1: one of.

1082
00:56:13,840 --> 00:56:15,840
Speaker 2: All Right, who a you long at tight end for

1083
00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:16,320
Speaker 2: me twelve?

1084
00:56:17,080 --> 00:56:19,640
Speaker 3: I'm low on TJ. Howkinson. He opens up as my

1085
00:56:19,880 --> 00:56:23,440
Speaker 3: tight end twelve. And I thought, you know, last week

1086
00:56:24,320 --> 00:56:26,879
Speaker 3: his playing time would only ramp up going forward as

1087
00:56:26,920 --> 00:56:30,160
Speaker 3: he's you know, getting healthier, but actually came back down

1088
00:56:30,239 --> 00:56:32,600
Speaker 3: last week. So it looks like, you know, the Vikings

1089
00:56:32,600 --> 00:56:35,960
Speaker 3: are still being pretty careful with him and limiting his

1090
00:56:35,960 --> 00:56:39,759
Speaker 3: his snaps for now, and Josh Oliver continued to have

1091
00:56:39,800 --> 00:56:43,200
Speaker 3: a pretty big role. However, you know, Oliver did pick

1092
00:56:43,280 --> 00:56:46,120
Speaker 3: up an ankle injury, so you know, his status this

1093
00:56:46,200 --> 00:56:48,720
Speaker 3: week is unclear. Right now. I'm projecting him to play,

1094
00:56:49,200 --> 00:56:51,279
Speaker 3: but if he's out. Even if he's out, I think that,

1095
00:56:51,480 --> 00:56:55,120
Speaker 3: you know, the Vikings probably still want to limit Hawkinson's workload,

1096
00:56:55,200 --> 00:56:58,000
Speaker 3: so I don't know if Oliver's status will impact that

1097
00:56:59,440 --> 00:57:01,799
Speaker 3: either way. He's still just gonna be more of a

1098
00:57:01,840 --> 00:57:04,080
Speaker 3: low end tight end one until we really do see

1099
00:57:04,120 --> 00:57:07,960
Speaker 3: him maintain that seventy eighty percent routes run rate that

1100
00:57:08,120 --> 00:57:10,399
Speaker 3: you know he's capable of that's when I think he'll

1101
00:57:10,560 --> 00:57:15,640
Speaker 3: return to you know, top six, you know discussion. But

1102
00:57:15,760 --> 00:57:17,200
Speaker 3: as of now, we just kind of have to wait

1103
00:57:17,240 --> 00:57:19,880
Speaker 3: and see. Maybe we get more you know reporting on

1104
00:57:20,000 --> 00:57:22,560
Speaker 3: like why that is, and maybe they say, Okay, we're

1105
00:57:22,560 --> 00:57:25,640
Speaker 3: gonna unleash this week and I'll move up his rank.

1106
00:57:25,680 --> 00:57:27,840
Speaker 3: But as of now, like you said, there's just some

1107
00:57:27,920 --> 00:57:31,800
Speaker 3: really good options with John new Smith, Hunter, Henry Dallas

1108
00:57:31,800 --> 00:57:34,760
Speaker 3: Goddard just ranked above him, So as of now, he's

1109
00:57:34,840 --> 00:57:36,720
Speaker 3: opening up the week as my tight end twelve.

1110
00:57:37,160 --> 00:57:40,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's just a lot of uncertainty there. My feel

1111
00:57:40,280 --> 00:57:42,880
Speaker 1: for it is that last week just ended up being

1112
00:57:42,880 --> 00:57:46,920
Speaker 1: one of those weeks where when Oliver went down, they

1113
00:57:46,920 --> 00:57:49,680
Speaker 1: were at a point where they were running more so

1114
00:57:50,000 --> 00:57:54,240
Speaker 1: they aid in mind having Johnny Mint in for those snabs.

1115
00:57:54,480 --> 00:57:56,760
Speaker 1: But we did see Ali excuse me, we did see

1116
00:57:56,800 --> 00:57:59,560
Speaker 1: Hockinson get to a seventy percent route rate. I think

1117
00:57:59,560 --> 00:58:02,000
Speaker 1: it was the game before, So I don't I don't

1118
00:58:02,040 --> 00:58:05,960
Speaker 1: exactly know if they're like there's any like they're trying

1119
00:58:06,040 --> 00:58:08,040
Speaker 1: to limit him or they you know, they wouldn't just

1120
00:58:08,200 --> 00:58:10,160
Speaker 1: play them if they needed to, which if like Oliver

1121
00:58:10,320 --> 00:58:12,760
Speaker 1: was out for example, So I'm kind of I'm kind

1122
00:58:12,760 --> 00:58:15,880
Speaker 1: of torn as well. And then it complicates things because

1123
00:58:15,920 --> 00:58:18,120
Speaker 1: there's a lot of guys like that who have like

1124
00:58:18,160 --> 00:58:19,960
Speaker 1: there's either new guys that you're like, I don't know

1125
00:58:20,000 --> 00:58:21,960
Speaker 1: if I should rank like a John who.

1126
00:58:22,000 --> 00:58:24,479
Speaker 2: In additional, these guys like flat out above them.

1127
00:58:24,960 --> 00:58:26,760
Speaker 1: And then there's like the Mark andrews Is who we

1128
00:58:26,840 --> 00:58:29,240
Speaker 1: have been good in the past, but now their situation

1129
00:58:29,320 --> 00:58:31,960
Speaker 1: is complicated like Likely's return and.

1130
00:58:31,800 --> 00:58:33,000
Speaker 2: You know, the wide receivers.

1131
00:58:33,040 --> 00:58:34,800
Speaker 1: So there's just so many guys that I wish I

1132
00:58:34,840 --> 00:58:38,160
Speaker 1: could rank like tight End twelve that like some of them,

1133
00:58:38,160 --> 00:58:40,240
Speaker 1: one of them has to be like the Tighten seven eight,

1134
00:58:40,480 --> 00:58:43,360
Speaker 1: But I agree there are a number of guys that

1135
00:58:43,600 --> 00:58:47,280
Speaker 1: I feel more confident in the Hockinson. This also sets

1136
00:58:47,320 --> 00:58:51,400
Speaker 1: up as a run funnel matchup. Chicago is number thirty

1137
00:58:51,440 --> 00:58:55,840
Speaker 1: one in DVOA against the run, but they're pretty good

1138
00:58:55,840 --> 00:58:58,960
Speaker 1: against the past the I guess the only concern would be,

1139
00:58:59,600 --> 00:59:01,840
Speaker 1: you know, if it was indeed like if Oliver sits,

1140
00:59:01,840 --> 00:59:03,480
Speaker 1: and then it was just something to.

1141
00:59:03,440 --> 00:59:07,520
Speaker 2: Do with the you know, the running game, and now they.

1142
00:59:07,320 --> 00:59:09,600
Speaker 1: Have Hockinson in it, and when he's in they're just

1143
00:59:09,640 --> 00:59:12,240
Speaker 1: like targeting him at a high rate because Addison is

1144
00:59:12,240 --> 00:59:14,920
Speaker 1: also banged up, so I don't know if he's gonna

1145
00:59:14,960 --> 00:59:17,560
Speaker 1: be one hundred percent in this one. So there's a

1146
00:59:17,560 --> 00:59:19,960
Speaker 1: lot of things. So yeah, you gotta for everyone listening

1147
00:59:20,280 --> 00:59:23,160
Speaker 1: keep you know, check out our ranks later in the

1148
00:59:23,200 --> 00:59:26,120
Speaker 1: week because this one it's kind of touch and go

1149
00:59:26,280 --> 00:59:26,680
Speaker 1: right now.

1150
00:59:26,720 --> 00:59:29,200
Speaker 2: But yeah, I'm at tight end eleven for t J. Hockinson.

1151
00:59:29,480 --> 00:59:31,360
Speaker 2: I'm right there with you. I think he's right.

1152
00:59:31,160 --> 00:59:33,680
Speaker 1: Outside that top ten until we get uh, you know,

1153
00:59:33,920 --> 00:59:36,640
Speaker 1: kind of more clarity on number one whether Oliver's playing,

1154
00:59:36,640 --> 00:59:38,880
Speaker 1: because he's actually been playing well, and I think it's

1155
00:59:38,920 --> 00:59:42,040
Speaker 1: a bigger reason why they haven't felt the need essentially

1156
00:59:42,360 --> 00:59:45,040
Speaker 1: to uh you know, push Hockinson.

1157
00:59:45,160 --> 00:59:46,720
Speaker 2: So if he's out, I.

1158
00:59:46,760 --> 00:59:49,560
Speaker 1: Think it helps, and then it's just a matter of

1159
00:59:49,600 --> 00:59:53,760
Speaker 1: seeing if O'Connell answers anything about his his role or

1160
00:59:53,840 --> 00:59:56,040
Speaker 1: that you know, might was doing more to the run

1161
00:59:56,080 --> 01:00:00,640
Speaker 1: back run run blocking kind of situation. But that is

1162
01:00:00,680 --> 01:00:04,560
Speaker 1: gonna lead us to our tight end prop.

1163
01:00:05,200 --> 01:00:06,280
Speaker 2: What do you got, Turner?

1164
01:00:07,080 --> 01:00:10,600
Speaker 3: We gotta go brock Bauers. You know, I mentioned in

1165
01:00:10,680 --> 01:00:13,640
Speaker 3: our League Winterer episode that he had league winning upside,

1166
01:00:13,640 --> 01:00:16,960
Speaker 3: but this is ridiculous. He's having like a hybrid of

1167
01:00:17,240 --> 01:00:21,560
Speaker 3: Puka Nakua and Sam Laporta rookie seasons. This year just

1168
01:00:21,600 --> 01:00:25,680
Speaker 3: everything's lined up for him. Thirteen catches, one hundred and

1169
01:00:25,720 --> 01:00:32,200
Speaker 3: twenty six yards and a touchdown got me feeling icy. God,

1170
01:00:32,240 --> 01:00:33,920
Speaker 3: I don't even know how to set his prop for

1171
01:00:34,040 --> 01:00:35,640
Speaker 3: you right now. I don't know if I could set

1172
01:00:35,680 --> 01:00:38,480
Speaker 3: it high enough. But I'll go, I'll go sixty one

1173
01:00:38,520 --> 01:00:41,560
Speaker 3: and a half yards. What do you got? Ooh?

1174
01:00:42,280 --> 01:00:44,440
Speaker 1: I hope I am over because I really don't want

1175
01:00:44,480 --> 01:00:47,880
Speaker 1: to be on a Bowers under that is, I want

1176
01:00:47,960 --> 01:00:48,320
Speaker 1: you to.

1177
01:00:48,280 --> 01:00:50,200
Speaker 3: Be on the over. I want the I want the over.

1178
01:00:50,320 --> 01:00:54,080
Speaker 3: But yeah, sixty one and a half against the Broncos.

1179
01:00:54,560 --> 01:00:55,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, who a.

1180
01:00:55,720 --> 01:00:58,320
Speaker 1: Little bit of a different matchupan and a tough matchup,

1181
01:00:58,880 --> 01:01:02,520
Speaker 1: but we saw him beat we saw him beat them

1182
01:01:03,920 --> 01:01:05,600
Speaker 1: in that first one. I think he got a little lucky,

1183
01:01:05,680 --> 01:01:06,640
Speaker 1: wasn't it like a kit ball?

1184
01:01:06,680 --> 01:01:07,840
Speaker 2: He got a big play on.

1185
01:01:07,800 --> 01:01:11,320
Speaker 1: And effort, something something crazy happened, I remember, Yeah, but

1186
01:01:12,720 --> 01:01:13,920
Speaker 1: he I think.

1187
01:01:13,760 --> 01:01:16,720
Speaker 3: He catches ninety seven a touchdown, I.

1188
01:01:16,680 --> 01:01:18,439
Speaker 1: Think the touchdown think and he almost got a second

1189
01:01:18,520 --> 01:01:20,439
Speaker 1: touchdown but Minshaw got picked six.

1190
01:01:20,520 --> 01:01:21,120
Speaker 2: So that's all.

1191
01:01:21,640 --> 01:01:24,080
Speaker 3: That's also something to keep it original benching.

1192
01:01:24,680 --> 01:01:25,480
Speaker 2: Yep, that was the.

1193
01:01:27,320 --> 01:01:30,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go wonder though unfortunately I have him at

1194
01:01:31,160 --> 01:01:36,240
Speaker 1: fifty eight. So I have him, like his catches are

1195
01:01:36,400 --> 01:01:38,640
Speaker 1: high in this spot, but because the Broncos defense is good,

1196
01:01:38,640 --> 01:01:41,000
Speaker 1: it's like I project him to be a little less efficient,

1197
01:01:41,320 --> 01:01:43,160
Speaker 1: you know, so and like the whole passing the whole

1198
01:01:43,240 --> 01:01:45,480
Speaker 1: raider passing offense, so a lot of times that ends

1199
01:01:45,520 --> 01:01:48,760
Speaker 1: up raising their receptions with their yardage, it might lower

1200
01:01:48,800 --> 01:01:49,240
Speaker 1: it a little.

1201
01:01:49,280 --> 01:01:50,560
Speaker 2: So yeah, I have him.

1202
01:01:50,640 --> 01:01:52,959
Speaker 1: I have him still as he tight end two this week.

1203
01:01:53,200 --> 01:01:55,840
Speaker 1: He may even be the tight end one depending on

1204
01:01:56,520 --> 01:01:59,800
Speaker 1: how you know, if I think there's gonna be a

1205
01:02:00,000 --> 01:02:03,760
Speaker 1: magnificant risk of the Chiefs not taking that gear against

1206
01:02:03,760 --> 01:02:06,600
Speaker 1: the Panthers too seriously, because Kelsey did see it a

1207
01:02:06,640 --> 01:02:09,320
Speaker 1: little bit of a reduction last week. But either way, yeah,

1208
01:02:09,360 --> 01:02:11,600
Speaker 1: I gotta go under. I hate to do it, but

1209
01:02:11,800 --> 01:02:12,800
Speaker 1: that was a good line.

1210
01:02:13,840 --> 01:02:18,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, Like I should have made it rushing and receiving yards, right,

1211
01:02:18,160 --> 01:02:21,640
Speaker 3: I mean, he gets carries last week minus three yards.

1212
01:02:21,640 --> 01:02:23,960
Speaker 3: But I wonder what the hell are they gonna do

1213
01:02:23,960 --> 01:02:27,080
Speaker 3: if Madison end Zameir White or out, like he could

1214
01:02:27,120 --> 01:02:29,800
Speaker 3: see a couple of rush attempts. Maybe they pass more.

1215
01:02:30,080 --> 01:02:32,320
Speaker 3: There's a lot of wrinkles here where he could get

1216
01:02:32,360 --> 01:02:34,240
Speaker 3: even more usage. If that's even possible.

1217
01:02:34,720 --> 01:02:37,880
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, he's gonna be. He's gonna be the focal point.

1218
01:02:38,200 --> 01:02:41,680
Speaker 1: I'm just going strictly based on the numbers I can

1219
01:02:41,720 --> 01:02:45,040
Speaker 1: see him. You know, like a six catch, fifty two yard,

1220
01:02:45,160 --> 01:02:49,720
Speaker 1: two touchdowns type of game. Yeah, Ron goes win twenty

1221
01:02:49,760 --> 01:02:51,320
Speaker 1: seven to fourteen or something like that.

1222
01:02:51,440 --> 01:02:53,760
Speaker 3: So that happened a lot of times. People.

1223
01:02:53,840 --> 01:02:56,000
Speaker 2: We should mention that because you kind of alluded to it.

1224
01:02:56,040 --> 01:02:59,120
Speaker 1: But if you like a guy or don't like a

1225
01:02:59,120 --> 01:03:02,960
Speaker 1: guy going over under, receptions and yards are not the

1226
01:03:03,000 --> 01:03:03,520
Speaker 1: same thing.

1227
01:03:04,080 --> 01:03:05,520
Speaker 2: Like if a guy like you.

1228
01:03:05,480 --> 01:03:10,240
Speaker 1: Mentioned with Terry McLaurin, he could if he goes over yards,

1229
01:03:10,240 --> 01:03:13,640
Speaker 1: he's probably likely to go under receptions because that means

1230
01:03:13,640 --> 01:03:17,560
Speaker 1: he's more efficient he needs fewer receptions to get more yards,

1231
01:03:17,560 --> 01:03:20,600
Speaker 1: and vice versus. So if you like or want to

1232
01:03:20,640 --> 01:03:25,040
Speaker 1: fade a certain player, that doesn't necessarily mean that you

1233
01:03:25,200 --> 01:03:28,240
Speaker 1: just bang the under on all of his props like

1234
01:03:28,480 --> 01:03:30,880
Speaker 1: you with receptions in yards. There's a reason that the

1235
01:03:30,920 --> 01:03:33,720
Speaker 1: books kind of put those both out, and it's because

1236
01:03:33,760 --> 01:03:36,640
Speaker 1: there is some inverse correlation there. It's not it's not

1237
01:03:36,840 --> 01:03:39,120
Speaker 1: just you know, correlation with the game scripts or the

1238
01:03:39,160 --> 01:03:42,520
Speaker 1: different receivers you know that they're competing against in their

1239
01:03:42,560 --> 01:03:46,040
Speaker 1: own team. Like there's literally, all right, if Alec Pierce

1240
01:03:46,720 --> 01:03:49,800
Speaker 1: catches an eighty yard touchdown, he's less likely to go

1241
01:03:49,880 --> 01:03:52,800
Speaker 1: over two and a half receptions because he's got eighty yards.

1242
01:03:52,680 --> 01:03:55,880
Speaker 2: And that drives over Now, so that's only keep in

1243
01:03:55,960 --> 01:03:56,640
Speaker 2: mind that I think.

1244
01:03:59,200 --> 01:04:01,800
Speaker 3: It's helping the game script more run heavy kind of

1245
01:04:01,840 --> 01:04:02,520
Speaker 3: thing exactly.

1246
01:04:02,560 --> 01:04:04,640
Speaker 1: So that's something I thought I should mention because I

1247
01:04:04,680 --> 01:04:06,440
Speaker 1: thought that was a good point that you brought up earlier,

1248
01:04:06,480 --> 01:04:09,360
Speaker 1: that maybe if you're a little newer to betting props

1249
01:04:09,640 --> 01:04:12,760
Speaker 1: or you know, making projections in general, you might not realize.

1250
01:04:12,760 --> 01:04:14,880
Speaker 1: But that's when I think that always kind of gets

1251
01:04:14,920 --> 01:04:17,560
Speaker 1: people in the same game parlays and stuff like that.

1252
01:04:17,560 --> 01:04:20,000
Speaker 1: That is gonna do it for us Here on the

1253
01:04:20,320 --> 01:04:24,840
Speaker 1: Player Projections Pod for week number twelve on the Fantasy Flex,

1254
01:04:25,480 --> 01:04:28,280
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