Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.
Speaker 1: It is NFL Week four and we are getting ready
Speaker 1: for the weekends late, which means it is time for
Speaker 1: us to break down some of our favorite games. Joining
Speaker 1: me to do just that as always none other than
Speaker 1: Matt f the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman, and today are
Speaker 1: very special guest, Colin Davey of bet Scope is going
Speaker 1: to be walking us through some fantastic tools that can
Speaker 1: help you guys when it comes to making your picks. Colin,
Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us today. How are
Speaker 1: you doing?
Speaker 2: I feel like I got to give a pre apology
Speaker 2: because the last time Freeman and I were on a
Speaker 2: mic together, we're doing golf stuff. So just on a
Speaker 2: sheer habit, I may be getting giving my opinions on
Speaker 2: Headecki Maasa Yama, but that is from a distant life
Speaker 2: to say.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that's a long time ago. What was what
Speaker 3: was the metric? It was adjusted?
Speaker 4: What's the metrics? Something like adjusted strokes?
Speaker 3: Yeah, justice strokes gained.
Speaker 2: It was not strokes games. Remember I didn't like strokes
Speaker 2: game back.
Speaker 3: Right, But it was adjusted. It was adjusted strokes something.
Speaker 3: But maybe it's a Justice Strow anyway. Yeah, the fut right, yes, yeah,
Speaker 3: the Fantasy Labs days, those were those were good days.
Speaker 3: And uh yeah, I mean you were a monster with
Speaker 3: the projections and so Tom, I don't know if you
Speaker 3: know this about Colin and calling correct me where I'm wrong.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 3: He twice won the Sloan mi I t hackethon and
Speaker 3: he won on Jeopardy.
Speaker 1: Wow. I did know that about Jeopardy as a matter
Speaker 1: of fact.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but the Sloan Hackathon thing, and you were the
Speaker 3: original winner of the hackathon right.
Speaker 2: It was the first two years that they did the competition.
Speaker 2: I won both of them. Decided I have nothing left
Speaker 2: to prove, hung my hat up. Call me when they
Speaker 2: do the Tournament of Champions. I am out of the
Speaker 2: hackathon game for the time being.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that is it's a real like dunk on everyone
Speaker 3: to win the second year and then just be like,
Speaker 3: you know what, I gotta retire. It's not fair to
Speaker 3: all of the other merror mortals out there for me
Speaker 3: to do this three times in a row.
Speaker 4: Hey, your words, not mine.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can very much relate to this. With the
Speaker 1: town third grade spelling be back in my hometown, I
Speaker 1: know exactly where you're coming from here.
Speaker 3: All right, guys, we have a lot.
Speaker 1: To get to today, but before we do that real quick,
Speaker 1: I just want to announce the winner of the autograph
Speaker 1: Joe Mixon jersey that we have for you courtesy of
Speaker 1: Pristineauction dot Com is none other than Matthew Dikett. Please
Speaker 1: get in touch with our customer support agents at info
Speaker 1: at Bettingpros dot com with your mailing address and proof
Speaker 1: of your subscription to the Betting Pros YouTube channel, and
Speaker 1: we will get that jersey shipped out to you post taste.
Speaker 1: Maybe not for this weekend, but hey, if you're quick enough,
Speaker 1: maybe you have it for well next week because the
Speaker 1: Dolphins and the Bengals play each other well before this
Speaker 1: podcast is actually going new air. But again, the winner
Speaker 1: is Matthew Dikett. Congrats, and now guys, let's get into
Speaker 1: it focusing on some of these weekend games.
Speaker 4: Matt, We're going to start off basically here.
Speaker 1: The plan is we're going to talk about your lines,
Speaker 1: and then Colin is gonna come through and completely berate
Speaker 1: you using his tools to find a better bet. That
Speaker 1: sound like a plan to.
Speaker 4: You, Colin, That sounds like a plan to me. Well,
Speaker 4: the first.
Speaker 1: Game that you got up. Okay, Matt, you want a word.
Speaker 3: In edgewise now, no, just it's already like old times.
Speaker 1: Yeah, a lot of blasts from the past for you
Speaker 1: on the last couple episodes here, But your line in
Speaker 1: this game, we're going Bears at Giants. You've got three
Speaker 1: and a half here, and it looks like that is
Speaker 1: still indeed pretty much the number. The Bears have moved
Speaker 1: to three and even two and a half in some spots.
Speaker 1: Do you still like them without the hook?
Speaker 3: Yeah? So when I wrote this up, it was three
Speaker 3: and a half consensus. Now I'm looking at the betting
Speaker 3: pros odds page, seems to be around three. I have
Speaker 3: this projected out at one and a half, So I
Speaker 3: still think that there's value landing on three. Obviously would
Speaker 3: have liked to have been able to get it closer
Speaker 3: to kickoff at three and a half. But I still
Speaker 3: have value on this. And you know, some of it
Speaker 3: is that I don't think the Bears are quite as
Speaker 3: bad as they've looked, and I do think the Giants
Speaker 3: are worse than they've looked. Specifically, like you look at
Speaker 3: some of the trends. I mean, Daniel Jones one and
Speaker 3: four against the spread as a home favorite, Like, he's
Speaker 3: just that is not the spot in which you want
Speaker 3: to bet on him as a road dog. Love Daniel
Speaker 3: Jones as a home favorite. He's absolutely horrible. And I
Speaker 3: think a lot of this game for me comes down
Speaker 3: to the Bears rush offense against the Giants rush defense.
Speaker 3: So David Montgomery number one running back for the Bears,
Speaker 3: I honestly don't even care if he plays. There's a
Speaker 3: chance that he plays, but probably won't even so it
Speaker 3: doesn't matter because his backup Khalil Herbert has been fantastic
Speaker 3: playing and places in Montgomery. You know, had twenty carries,
Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty seven yards, two touchdowns last week.
Speaker 3: Last year in four games as to fill in, he
Speaker 3: had three hundred and forty four yards rushing in a
Speaker 3: touchdown on seventy eight carries. And then quarterback Justin Fields
Speaker 3: is always a rushing threat, has twenty seven carries this year.
Speaker 3: The Bears are top twelve and like all the different
Speaker 3: key rushing efficiency metrics that you might look at, you know,
Speaker 3: epa success rate, and then the Giants defense is outside
Speaker 3: the top twenty in those metrics, and there's a pretty
Speaker 3: good chance they're going to be without defensive lineman Leonard
Speaker 3: Williams and also edge jahad Ward. And so I think
Speaker 3: the Bears control the game for a chunk of it
Speaker 3: with their running attack, and I think that keeps this close.
Speaker 1: I want to know the total, not on the score,
Speaker 1: which frankly you could set it too, and I might
Speaker 1: take the under in this game, But total on pass
Speaker 1: is thrown here because on the one hand, you have
Speaker 1: Justin Fields, who's thrown the ball forty five times through
Speaker 1: three games this season. Joe Flackel, I'm pretty sure is
Speaker 1: averaging more throws than he than he has all year.
Speaker 1: But then on the other side, with the Giant, all
Speaker 1: of your receivers are either injured or Kenny Galladay, and
Speaker 1: that might even be worse. It's a battle of two
Speaker 1: completely stoppable run defenses. You talked about the Giants there
Speaker 1: twenty eighth and Dboa the Bears are twenty second. But Colin,
Speaker 1: what are you thinking here? Let's bring up bet scope
Speaker 1: and talk about what you're seeing in this game.
Speaker 2: Absolutely so to give a little bit of context of
Speaker 2: what we're looking here at here. Bet Scope is basically
Speaker 2: a series of betting tools designed to help you match
Speaker 2: your beliefs and what you think will happen with the
Speaker 2: game with the most appropriate market that you should be
Speaker 2: getting your money down. So over here we have a
Speaker 2: combination on screen where this is basically of all a
Speaker 2: different markets currently available. As we get closer to game time,
Speaker 2: we expect more props to be available around things like
Speaker 2: bears and giants, running backs, giants wide receivers as they
Speaker 2: come in. But we can kind of take a look
Speaker 2: at all the different price is at all the different
Speaker 2: markets that we're looking at with a kind of.
Speaker 4: Easy click of the button.
Speaker 2: Now, one of the other things that we can do
Speaker 2: with this is basically try to discover all of the
Speaker 2: markets that match your betting thesis. And so, Freedman, what
Speaker 2: I'd like to go back to you is like, let's
Speaker 2: explore your I guess quote unquote investment thesis for lack
Speaker 2: of a better term, and all the things.
Speaker 4: You just described.
Speaker 2: I heard a lot of potentially legitimate reasons, like why
Speaker 2: you might like the bears here and bears plus two
Speaker 2: plus two and a half depending on you know where
Speaker 2: we're getting the they're even still at plus three at
Speaker 2: some places is a perfectly great way to get your
Speaker 2: money down. But everything you describe is and I'll ask
Speaker 2: you a little bit of a devil's advocate question, Why
Speaker 2: did you not settle on Daniel Jones under on the
Speaker 2: pass props. Why did you not settle on Justin Fields
Speaker 2: over on his rushing yards? Why are you not necessarily
Speaker 2: looking at the alternate spread markets to see if there's
Speaker 2: a slightly better price that captures the same general direction
Speaker 2: of where you think the game is going to go.
Speaker 2: So how did you settle on just your stock bears
Speaker 2: plus three or plus two and a half?
Speaker 4: Yes, this is a very loaded question, as you might gather.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so it is a good question, I would say.
Speaker 3: Closer to kickoff, I think it makes sense to expound
Speaker 3: on your thesis, your investment thesis, and look to get
Speaker 3: action in the alternative markets earlier in the week, which
Speaker 3: is when I tend to do a lot of my
Speaker 3: research and establish some of my positions. Really, the best
Speaker 3: way to do that, or sometimes the only way to
Speaker 3: do that, is by attacking the spread market before those
Speaker 3: lines kind of get bet into place. And so that
Speaker 3: is the reason why I would go with the traditional spread.
Speaker 3: But obviously, as props come out as more alternative lines
Speaker 3: are released, it creates more opportunities in the market, and
Speaker 3: it would make sense to try to exploit those.
Speaker 2: It absolutely does, and I think we're all in a
Speaker 2: consensus that this is the way that lines get hammered
Speaker 2: into shape. You start with the first available spreads and
Speaker 2: totals if you feel like your edge is bigger there.
Speaker 2: It is basically the only market that you can get
Speaker 2: down in. As you get closer to kickoff and these
Speaker 2: new markets spring up, it absolutely behooves you to go
Speaker 2: through every single one, examine all the prices, and figure
Speaker 2: out which of the markets most closely match your investment thesis.
Speaker 2: As we all know, it is incredibly cumbersome to go
Speaker 2: through potentially eighty different markets at seven different sports books.
Speaker 2: The permutations can get pretty overwhelming, and for most of
Speaker 2: us it's just not feasible to go an odds shop
Speaker 2: and every single one of those. Combine it with the
Speaker 2: fact that some of these favorable prices are only available
Speaker 2: during short windows, and you have to be able to
Speaker 2: capitalize on a very short timeframe window, and so what
Speaker 2: we've developed a BET scope, is a way to basically
Speaker 2: scan the entire market and surface those most favorable bets
Speaker 2: at a click of a button and all we need
Speaker 2: for that. But process is a single belief. So let's
Speaker 2: go back to your original thesis. You basically have this
Speaker 2: projected at fair price. Is Giants minus one and a
Speaker 2: half is the fair line in your view?
Speaker 4: Correct?
Speaker 2: So what we can do is we can go over
Speaker 2: to the spread box here and instead of you know,
Speaker 2: the consensus is around something, just over you know, minus two.
Speaker 2: As a side note, the spread consensus is slightly different
Speaker 2: than an average scoring differential. There's a lot of complicated
Speaker 2: distribution math that is an explainer for why you might
Speaker 2: see a slightly different number in the average spread your
Speaker 2: scoring differential versus the spread numbers that are up there.
Speaker 4: But that is a subject for another day. But let's
Speaker 4: approximate it to say, on.
Speaker 2: Average, you think the Giants are going to win by
Speaker 2: one and a half instead of the you know two
Speaker 2: two and a half they're projected.
Speaker 4: What we can do is we can.
Speaker 2: Update that spread number and run it through our correlations
Speaker 2: engine and bet calculator. And what that will do is say,
Speaker 2: in a world in which you're correct and that is
Speaker 2: the true line, there are a lot of other bets
Speaker 2: that also need to be adjusted, because in a world
Speaker 2: where that is true, we will need to adjust all
Speaker 2: of other numbers accordingly. So I look here, and there
Speaker 2: don't seem to be any particularly special markets that show
Speaker 2: any kind of huge price discrepancies.
Speaker 4: I think there's all.
Speaker 2: If we don't see any particular juicy opportunities, we can
Speaker 2: kind of stick to our standard stock, you know, bears
Speaker 2: plus two plus two and a half plus three. But
Speaker 2: normally the way that we want to get down on
Speaker 2: this is identifying markets with significant enough price discrepancies that
Speaker 2: are correlated to the markets that were their original kind
Speaker 2: of investment thesis. As of game time or as of
Speaker 2: you know, Thursday. Right now, I don't see any particular
Speaker 2: markets that are worth like especially worth attacking beyond I'm
Speaker 2: sure to check, you know, closer to kickoff, as these
Speaker 2: markets have a little bit more fluctuations. So I like,
Speaker 2: as of now, I like your original bet.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: I would say. One thing to keep in mind is
Speaker 3: that because of the running back uncertainty with Montgomery, we
Speaker 3: don't have a prop for him or Khalil Herbert in
Speaker 3: the market yet, and I think the running backs would
Speaker 3: probably be the likeliest the likeliest exploitable opportunities given the thesis,
Speaker 3: because you know, like Justin Fields, he already has a
Speaker 3: really low passing prop. The same with Daniel Jones. So
Speaker 3: you know, moving from two point one as the general
Speaker 3: consensus line down to one point five, I don't think
Speaker 3: it would impact their lines all that much. The guys
Speaker 3: who would probably impact the most don't have odds yet
Speaker 3: in the prop market.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think that what you just described is
Speaker 2: a process that everyone should really go through. Once you
Speaker 2: have your investment thesis, you should be really mindful of
Speaker 2: exactly which Marcus you're choosing to attack that thesis, because
Speaker 2: there are too many people that just go through the
Speaker 2: stock spread and don't really look for any other opportunities
Speaker 2: in other markets. And the way to really capitalize on
Speaker 2: Supercharger ROI is to have total awareness of all those markets.
Speaker 4: At all times.
Speaker 2: That is far easier to do with a market scanning
Speaker 2: tool like Betscope that will surface those opportunities automatically given
Speaker 2: a single input.
Speaker 1: So what for this game? Then you talk about that
Speaker 1: in minus one and a half points here, if you
Speaker 1: were to try and find something for that market, what
Speaker 1: would you be looking at, Matt.
Speaker 2: If I look at you at what markets have special
Speaker 2: opportunities capitalized. We do see kind of the green highlight
Speaker 2: around the money line for here, and we do see
Speaker 2: that there is pretty low synthetic hold. If you're curious
Speaker 2: on what all of these colors mean as the color
Speaker 2: as the boxes and different bets are highlighted using different colors,
Speaker 2: we do have an explainer up here and kind of
Speaker 2: a little help box over here that indicates what all
Speaker 2: these colors mean. In the case of the green box,
Speaker 2: we see that the synthetic hold, meaning you know, you
Speaker 2: if to take the overall hold or the juice like
Speaker 2: when you take the best obs available across all sports books,
Speaker 2: this is a market that does have low synthetic hold,
Speaker 2: and so I think if you really wanted to capitalize
Speaker 2: on that, the best opportunity that's kind of slightly off
Speaker 2: market from everyone else is the money line at FanDuel,
Speaker 2: where you know, this is a pretty standard at this point,
Speaker 2: just a standard line shopping exercise where you can probably
Speaker 2: squeak out a little bit more ROI capitalizing on Bear's
Speaker 2: money line at plus one thirty six, You're going to
Speaker 2: get a little bit of better price there, and you
Speaker 2: can see when you compare it to DraftKings, Like, let's say,
Speaker 2: like your thesis is Fade Freeman at all times because
Speaker 2: he's a hack and you know you don't really want
Speaker 2: to pay attention to him. The best way that I
Speaker 2: would do that would be to capitalize and bet on
Speaker 2: the Giants money line at DraftKings, because you can see
Speaker 2: how clearly off market it is from everywhere else.
Speaker 4: And we'll go out of our way, out of.
Speaker 2: Our way to highlight those markets that have those either
Speaker 2: really low holes, split markets, arbitrage opportunities.
Speaker 4: We will go out of our way to.
Speaker 2: Highlight the markets that haven think a price discrepancies that
Speaker 2: are indicative of that's maybe the attack factor that you
Speaker 2: want to go in on for your investment thesis.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know, to follow up on what Colin
Speaker 3: said there, and I would say, in all fairness, if
Speaker 3: you are on the bears in this spot, it probably
Speaker 3: does make more sense to bet the money line versus
Speaker 3: the We'll say, like to the two that you're getting
Speaker 3: in the market, because if they're going to if they're
Speaker 3: going to have a good game, if they're going to dominate,
Speaker 3: they're probably not winning by one or two points. It's
Speaker 3: probably more like three, so I don't know. I prefer.
Speaker 3: I actually do prefer in general the money line in
Speaker 3: this spot to this bread.
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Speaker 4: Now, how about this next.
Speaker 1: Game that we have up here, gentlemen, We're gonna be
Speaker 1: looking at the Cardinals going up against the Panthers. Matt,
Speaker 1: you have the Cardinals plus one and a half, which
Speaker 1: is still the line that you're going to be getting
Speaker 1: pretty much anywhere in this one. And what are you
Speaker 1: thinking in this game?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 3: I have the Cardinals as one point seventy five favorites
Speaker 3: in this game. Like I do not think there is
Speaker 3: a world in which Carolina should be favored. Like say that, Yeah,
Speaker 3: I just I do not see it. You know, I'm
Speaker 3: looking at these teams, looking at what they've done, and
Speaker 3: given the priors that I had entering the season, I
Speaker 3: don't think we've seen enough out of Carolina to move
Speaker 3: the number in this direction, and Cliff Kingsbury trash. His
Speaker 3: scheme is so bad. He doesn't have a scheme. It's
Speaker 3: just Kyler. Please go bail me out. But that said,
Speaker 3: he's actually been a I would say he's even been
Speaker 3: a good coach, but he's been a beneficiary of incorrect
Speaker 3: line when he has been in certain spots. On the road,
Speaker 3: he's eighteen six and two against the spread. As an underdog,
Speaker 3: he's nineteen nine and two against the spread, and as
Speaker 3: a road dog he is an outrageous fourteen three and
Speaker 3: two against the spread. On the money line as a
Speaker 3: road dog, twelve and seven. And then you look at
Speaker 3: Matt Ruhle, who is the exact opposite of that. At home,
Speaker 3: he's five and thirteen against the spread. As a favorite,
Speaker 3: he is three and ten against the spread, and as
Speaker 3: a home favorite against the spread and on the money
Speaker 3: line he is one and seven, absolutely horrible. So you
Speaker 3: have like these two coaches lining up perfectly in the
Speaker 3: exact spots where you should be betting on one and
Speaker 3: betting against the other. And look you have Kyler Murray
Speaker 3: versus Baker Mayfield, and Baker Mayfield is somehow a favorite.
Speaker 3: I feel like that pretty much says it all. You know,
Speaker 3: both of these teams have similar advantages in the running game.
Speaker 3: The Cardinals offense is number two in rush success rate,
Speaker 3: the Payanther's defense is number fifteen in that metric, and
Speaker 3: then the Panthers offense is number two in rush EPA.
Speaker 3: The Cardinals defense is number fifteen in that metric. I
Speaker 3: think both teams want to lean on the ground game,
Speaker 3: But when the Cardinals choose to pass, they have Kyler
Speaker 3: Murray and he has a massive edge relative to Baker
Speaker 3: Mayfield and a direct edge against the Panthers defense and
Speaker 3: the secondary. You know, just kind of looking at our
Speaker 3: Fantasy pros unit power rankings, we have Kyler Murray's the
Speaker 3: number nine quarterback in the league. The defense for the
Speaker 3: Panthers is number nineteen. And as bad as we might
Speaker 3: think the Cardinals offensive line is, it's no worse than
Speaker 3: the Panthers defensive line. Like we have the Cardinals with
Speaker 3: the number twenty four offensive line the Panthers with the
Speaker 3: number twenty four defensive line. So I think, you know,
Speaker 3: per usual, Murray is the difference in this game and
Speaker 3: in the offseason market this number was Cardinals minus two
Speaker 3: and now it is Cardinals plus one and a half
Speaker 3: plus two at some spots. I just I can't imagine
Speaker 3: that we have seen enough in three games to move
Speaker 3: this number that much. So I will be taking Cardinals
Speaker 3: as dogs on the road, very very lustily. I will
Speaker 3: take them in the spot.
Speaker 1: Well, you know the best way that you can do
Speaker 1: that right now, the best odds you're getting. You've got
Speaker 1: bet MGM at plus two on the Cardinals, still hanging
Speaker 1: that number right now, And if you wanted to take
Speaker 1: advantage of a great offer to bet that at bet mgm,
Speaker 1: you should sign up for an account today and use
Speaker 1: the promo code betting pros for one thousand dollars risk
Speaker 1: free bet right off the bat. Maybe you use that
Speaker 1: on this Cardinals plus two line, just saying there's some
Speaker 1: potential there. But Colin, where would you be looking, given
Speaker 1: all of the tools at bet Scope, what is that
Speaker 1: telling you is the best play here in Cardinals versus Panthers.
Speaker 2: So coaching driven investment, THESS or lines or angles whatever
Speaker 2: you want to take, are usually pretty tougher to diagnose
Speaker 2: because you know, normally when we're talking about how we
Speaker 2: think the game is going to go slightly different than
Speaker 2: the market we can key it in on you know,
Speaker 2: specific player matchups, I think coaching tendencies and how they
Speaker 2: affect and all those trends and things like that are real,
Speaker 2: but it's really tougher to transmute that into something like
Speaker 2: the prop market, where you have a clear cut like
Speaker 2: this will influence like this particular player will play by
Speaker 2: it or worse than usual, And so I tend to
Speaker 2: lean into just you know, you can stick with the
Speaker 2: standard spreads and total stock markets, but usually there is
Speaker 2: some value to be found in the alternate markets as well.
Speaker 2: So one thing we also highlight here is all of
Speaker 2: these alternate spread markets. And what we see is interesting
Speaker 2: is there's already there's already been some pretty significant price
Speaker 2: movement in the meantime, because there was a moment here
Speaker 2: where we did see at some point Arizona plus seven
Speaker 2: was getting a pretty favorable price from barstool only at
Speaker 2: around minus three ten. Since then it's moved to minus
Speaker 2: three eighty five. So there are clearly other people patrolling
Speaker 2: these same markets. This is an interesting problem to solve
Speaker 2: because you know, Friedman, I could ask you, like, great,
Speaker 2: if you like Arizona at you know, minus one, you
Speaker 2: think you know the true line for this game should
Speaker 2: be plus one over here by transitive property. If you
Speaker 2: like Arizona plus one, you probably also like Arizona plus
Speaker 2: seven as well, Like you think that's more likely to
Speaker 2: hit than the quote unquote consensus market price.
Speaker 4: Correct.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so Arizona, I guess they're plus one, and so yeah,
Speaker 3: if I like Arizona plus one, I like Arizona plus seven,
Speaker 3: just depending on what the juice is exactly.
Speaker 4: So that is the trickiest question, depending on what the
Speaker 4: juice is.
Speaker 2: And so if I were to put you on the spot,
Speaker 2: which I guess I am right now, if you like
Speaker 2: Arizona plus one at minus one ten, at what price
Speaker 2: would you bet Arizona plus seven? I'm going to stop
Speaker 2: you there, because I think that is honestly a difficult
Speaker 2: question to ask unless you're kind of knee deep in knowing,
Speaker 2: like what the value is of six points, Like we're
Speaker 2: all like, we all know, like a value of point
Speaker 2: maybe half a point and stuff like that. Like, but
Speaker 2: unless like your knee deep in distributions, that may not
Speaker 2: be something you can answer, you know, in five seconds.
Speaker 3: Well, that is absolutely some Well let me think about
Speaker 3: this a little bit, uh, I would say maybe plus sorry, Uh,
Speaker 3: it's okay, So maybe minus two fifty two seventy five.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Thomas gonna take a crack at it.
Speaker 1: Well, plus one at minus one ten is equal to
Speaker 1: plus seven at minus three hundred.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's I mean, it's about It depends on what
Speaker 2: your view of the distribution of outcomes is in that game.
Speaker 2: And so we all have standard calculators. You know, we
Speaker 2: can kind of look up and kind of make those inferences.
Speaker 2: It's very difficult to do on the fly. If you
Speaker 2: notice that there is a window of opportunity, uh, to
Speaker 2: get those to lock in those good prices and do
Speaker 2: that math.
Speaker 4: We can do it.
Speaker 2: But one of the things we pride ourselves on Betscope
Speaker 2: is having that math integrate under the hood, where if
Speaker 2: you can just put in your original thesis, we will
Speaker 2: do all of that distribution math for you and tell
Speaker 2: you whether or not it is a positive expectation bet
Speaker 2: or not. Now I see here that that price is
Speaker 2: no longer available barstool. It used to be at minus
Speaker 2: three ten and has since moved to three eighty five.
Speaker 2: It's unfortunate that we can't get that price anymore. But
Speaker 2: all the same, we can change our stats accordingly, run
Speaker 2: it through the calculator, and see if there's any additional
Speaker 2: opportunities as of the quick assessment here as a reminder
Speaker 2: of like what I'm looking at when all of these
Speaker 2: dots are here and our games dropped down menu, that
Speaker 2: will tell you how many markets there are of each
Speaker 2: of each price discrepancy type, whether it's low hold, whether
Speaker 2: it's split market, whether or that's arbitrage. As of filming time,
Speaker 2: I don't see anything available for Cardinals Panthers. But we'll
Speaker 2: also notice that we only really only have quarterback props up,
Speaker 2: and so it's not particularly surprising that given that there
Speaker 2: are no prop markets, there aren't potentially many available BETE
Speaker 2: markets with prices creptancy opportunities. So similar to the last game,
Speaker 2: I would check this closer to kickoff as more of
Speaker 2: these markets come online and we can kind of see,
Speaker 2: is there, you know, price movement in all of these
Speaker 2: different areas.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's a game in which both starting running
Speaker 3: backs are dealing with injuries, and so props haven't been
Speaker 3: released for them, and you know, the wide receiver units
Speaker 3: for both teams they're pretty mediocre, and so you know
Speaker 3: there might not be a robust prop market for this game.
Speaker 3: Even as we get closer to kickoff, there will be
Speaker 3: more props released, but you know, we might not have
Speaker 3: the full menu that we otherwise would if these teams
Speaker 3: were actually functional.
Speaker 1: You're not kidding about the mediocrity of the passing offense.
Speaker 1: Is the Massy Peabody unit grade for the passing offense
Speaker 1: for the Cardinals this year, this week or it's on
Speaker 1: a scale of one hundred.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's amazing, honestly, like surprising to me.
Speaker 1: But how does this number change? Because the spread right
Speaker 1: now isn't one, it's one and a half. How does
Speaker 1: that have if we to change it to one and
Speaker 1: a half. How does that affect your calculations? Does it
Speaker 1: bring up anything for us there?
Speaker 2: I think that just given the lack of markets and
Speaker 2: just like kind of the low maybe liquidity is not
Speaker 2: the right term, but just given the lack of like
Speaker 2: attack vectors, I don't think it's going to change much
Speaker 2: because you know, when you're really looking for opportunities, sometimes
Speaker 2: it's kind of the classic like you can only play
Speaker 2: against once the defense. What the defense gives you. The
Speaker 2: analogy here is if there just aren't a lot of
Speaker 2: markets to get down on. There's probably not going to
Speaker 2: be as much opportunities, so you kind of are limited
Speaker 2: by what the books offer. That's why it behooves you
Speaker 2: to stay patients, to monitor the odds as the week progresses,
Speaker 2: and just monitor tools like these to see, you know,
Speaker 2: when the opportunities arise. You will see it in the
Speaker 2: notifications of whatever opportunities we're surfacing here. It kind of
Speaker 2: alert you to you know, like the at least the
Speaker 2: presence of certain markets that you should be attacking.
Speaker 1: Well, let's see if there's anything better to attack in
Speaker 1: our next game. Up here, we've got the Denver Broncos
Speaker 1: and the Las Vegas Raiders Denver heads to love Vegas
Speaker 1: as two and a half point dogs in this one,
Speaker 1: And Matt, I already know your answer because you have
Speaker 1: been so low on the Raiders all year, and in
Speaker 1: all fairness, it's kind of working out as they do
Speaker 1: sit at zero to three here in this one right now,
Speaker 1: so I can't really poke holes in your theory. But
Speaker 1: that being said, I'm on the opposite side of you
Speaker 1: in this game here you're going with the Broncos.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have Denver as a slight favorite point two
Speaker 3: five points, I think they should be favored, and so
Speaker 3: at you know, plus two and a half, I'm seeing,
Speaker 3: you know, pretty significant value there. And you know, there
Speaker 3: are a number of I think ways in which you
Speaker 3: could look at this and say I just don't I
Speaker 3: just don't buy it, you know, Like one, you could
Speaker 3: just look at the Raiders record for one, but you
Speaker 3: know we will dive deeper than that. But I also say,
Speaker 3: Derek Carr, it's not that he should never be favored, okay,
Speaker 3: but he's thirteen twenty five and one against the spread
Speaker 3: as a favorite like that clearly has not been a
Speaker 3: historical spot for betting on him. And Russell Wilson twenty
Speaker 3: seven to thirteen and two against the spread as an
Speaker 3: underdog for his career. So we are getting both of
Speaker 3: these guys in kind of their sweet spot. And Divisional
Speaker 3: road underdogs have been especially good in the first month
Speaker 3: of the season historically one hundred and thirty to ninety
Speaker 3: five to eight against the spread, good for a twelve
Speaker 3: point six return on investment for the Divisional Road underdogs.
Speaker 3: And I think this game really comes down to Russell
Speaker 3: Wilson against the Raiders pass defense. The Raiders have no
Speaker 3: offensive edge in this game. But the Broncos have a
Speaker 3: big one and that they have Russell Wilson. And it's
Speaker 3: not as if he's been great this year, but the
Speaker 3: Raiders have been very subpart in pass defense. They rank
Speaker 3: bottom six in both drop back EPA and success rate,
Speaker 3: and that strong edge duo of Max Crosby and Chandler
Speaker 3: Jones has managed just two sacks. Even let me rephrase that,
Speaker 3: even with them, it's not that those two guys have
Speaker 3: two sacks. The entire defense has just two sacks on
Speaker 3: the year. And so they let you know, quarterback Justin
Speaker 3: Herbert walk all over them in week one, they let
Speaker 3: Kyler Murray come back from a twenty to zero halftime deficit.
Speaker 3: In Week two, they let Ryan Tannehill save his jaw
Speaker 3: and maybe the Titan season. In Week three, and they're injured.
Speaker 3: They've already lost number two cornerback Anthony Averett. They might
Speaker 3: be without number three cornerback Nate Hobbs, and even number
Speaker 3: one cornerback Rakya Sin He was on the injury report
Speaker 3: with a knee injury. I bet he plays, but still
Speaker 3: like they are not, They're nowhere close to full health
Speaker 3: at cornerback, safety for Von morg has been out the
Speaker 3: past two weeks with the hip injury, and their main
Speaker 3: off ball coverage linebacker Denzel Perryman, he's been out the
Speaker 3: past two weeks with an ankle injury. No guarantee that
Speaker 3: those guys come back this week. One of them might,
Speaker 3: maybe both of them will, but they probably won't be
Speaker 3: one hundred percent healthy. And so it's just a Raiders
Speaker 3: defense that is very exploitable, and I think we see
Speaker 3: Russell Wilson have his Broncos breakout against that very weak unit.
Speaker 3: This line was a pick them, a pick them in
Speaker 3: the offseason, and maybe the Broncos aren't as good as
Speaker 3: the market anticipated they would be months ago, but that's
Speaker 3: definitely true for the Raiders too. So I still think
Speaker 3: the Broncos should be the slightest of favorites in this game.
Speaker 3: And so at two and a half, I really like
Speaker 3: the value that I'm seeing in the market.
Speaker 1: My problem is just.
Speaker 3: Who have you played?
Speaker 1: And for me with Denver, you've played three teams that
Speaker 1: I do not think highly of at all. You got
Speaker 1: Seattle and you could only score sixteen points against them. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they were the two goal line fumbles and that game
Speaker 1: should have gone differently, like this team should be three
Speaker 1: to zero, but even then you got Houston. After that
Speaker 1: you can only put sixteen points up against that defense.
Speaker 1: And then you got the forty nine Ers. Okay, the
Speaker 1: defense is good, but team overall, you got Jimmy Gett quarterback.
Speaker 1: And it's an eleven to ten game that sets football
Speaker 1: back about seventy years in my mind. The Raiders hung
Speaker 1: tough in there with the Chargers in Week one, and
Speaker 1: then in week two you have the collapse against Arizona,
Speaker 1: and then in week three you have another tough game
Speaker 1: against Tennessee. Honestly, even at oh and three, I think
Speaker 1: this team has put up better performances so far than
Speaker 1: we've seen out of Denver. And I also think it's
Speaker 1: that division rivalry aspect to it, Like it's not something
Speaker 1: that you normally want to bet on, but the Raiders
Speaker 1: always get up for the Denver game and I don't
Speaker 1: see them falling to oh and four in this spot
Speaker 1: against Broncos country Let's Ride and his psychopathic sandwich commercials.
Speaker 3: I will say I did look in bet labs to
Speaker 3: see if there were any trends on teams that were
Speaker 3: oh and three, and there are trends that normally those
Speaker 3: teams actually do very well against the spread. However, the
Speaker 3: teams that are home favorites don't. They're just break even.
Speaker 3: So I don't really think there's I'm not gonna put
Speaker 3: too much in the the oh and three thing.
Speaker 4: For me.
Speaker 1: It's also I think that Darren Waller and DeVante Adams
Speaker 1: are just better than any weapons that they've had to
Speaker 1: deal with so far. Deebo Samuel nullified by the whole
Speaker 1: fact that Jimmy G's your quarterback. But Colin, what are
Speaker 1: you looking at in this game?
Speaker 2: I'm looking at the lack of prop markets for the Raiders.
Speaker 2: Yet again, I feel like a broken record. I mean,
Speaker 2: like that being said, like it's you know, it's always
Speaker 2: like relevant to you know, keep in mind when market's open.
Speaker 2: But in terms of the you know, the markets the
Speaker 2: best scope has identified for things you might want to
Speaker 2: attack and the alternate spreads, Raiders minus three and a
Speaker 2: half has a little bit of price discrepancies here on
Speaker 2: both sides. By extension, if you like, you know Denver
Speaker 2: plus two, you'll also like Denver plus three and a
Speaker 2: half and what it's able to detect.
Speaker 4: With the way that it runs its distributions.
Speaker 2: Under the hood is sometimes people will miss do critical
Speaker 2: mispricing things like make the hook a little bit too cheap.
Speaker 2: I think Denver plus three and a half. Like we
Speaker 2: all know the value of the hook. We don't need to,
Speaker 2: you know, like expound on that a lot. But you
Speaker 2: can see all the other books have kind of priced
Speaker 2: it accordingly or in a high minus one thirty. Sometimes
Speaker 2: in the minus one forty. Barstool only has it at
Speaker 2: minus one thirty. So we're identifying an opportunity where they've
Speaker 2: probably mispriced the hook.
Speaker 4: A little bit, made it a little bit too cheap.
Speaker 2: The payout is a little bit less, but you know,
Speaker 2: if it comes down to maybe it's within a field goal,
Speaker 2: that hook is going to give you.
Speaker 4: The extra range of outcomes that you need.
Speaker 2: So I think there's opportunity to take the hook at
Speaker 2: Barstool because I think it made it a little bit
Speaker 2: too cheap.
Speaker 4: In the alternate spreads market.
Speaker 1: They're offering three and a half minus one thirty right now. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: you got to jump on that number.
Speaker 2: That eight. We have it set up also as well,
Speaker 2: so you can just click on it and it I'll
Speaker 2: take you right to the game.
Speaker 4: Page.
Speaker 2: One of the critical things, and it's really underrated when
Speaker 2: you're trying to get down is as these opportunities are,
Speaker 2: you know, sometimes fleeting only in minutes, the less friction
Speaker 2: that you can reduce between identifying opportunities and just getting
Speaker 2: to the page. We take pains to make sure that
Speaker 2: we are going to get you with all of our
Speaker 2: vetted links to that page and to that exact bet
Speaker 2: as quickly as possible, because at some point this is
Speaker 2: a timing question, not a ability to identify the edge question.
Speaker 2: So you really have to utilize every tool at your
Speaker 2: disposal to make sure that you're capitalizing on these mispricings.
Speaker 3: Man, that's that is a great bet because normally I
Speaker 3: think it doesn't make a lot of sense, because this
Speaker 3: is just sort of like an extended version of like
Speaker 3: buying points, you know, and I think normally it doesn't
Speaker 3: make a lot of sense to buy points. But if
Speaker 3: you're you know, looking at the total market and seeing
Speaker 3: the one area where there has been some mispricing, yeah,
Speaker 3: to be able to get the hook to go from
Speaker 3: two and a half to three and a half, to
Speaker 3: go all the way through the key number to get
Speaker 3: to three and a half, and to have only minus
Speaker 3: one thirty right to pay twenty cents there through the
Speaker 3: key number for that entire point. That is I think
Speaker 3: very good value.
Speaker 2: Absolutely. And this this is where tools like Beths Scope
Speaker 2: really shine. It's automatically figuring that out under the hood
Speaker 2: and surfacing it for you. You can imagine how painstaking
Speaker 2: and laborious it would be to evaluate all those key
Speaker 2: numbers on the fly, refresh every minute and kind of
Speaker 2: do that math yourself. This is this should be the
Speaker 2: domain of a tool to identify places where they've mispriced
Speaker 2: the hook and just directing towards it as soon as possible.
Speaker 1: Now, the next game that you've got up here, Matt,
Speaker 1: you are looking at the Buccaneers versus the Chiefs. The
Speaker 1: Bucks getting two points, that's what you're looking at. Here,
Speaker 1: you're looking at bus two.
Speaker 4: I think this numbers might move. This is moved.
Speaker 3: It's now Buccaneers favored by one. Yeah.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so like it?
Speaker 3: No, I'm I mean, if anything, I so let me
Speaker 3: see here. If anything, I now like Kansas City a
Speaker 3: little bit, but we're all in that realm of like
Speaker 3: pick them. I originally had this when I was projecting
Speaker 3: it as a pick them, and I first bet on
Speaker 3: this was Tampa Bay plus three when the early line
Speaker 3: was released, and that has moved down obviously. Now I
Speaker 3: have Kansas City favored by point five and and so
Speaker 3: I'm showing like one and a half points of value.
Speaker 3: But given where we are in the market, I'm probably
Speaker 3: honestly not betting this at this point because I, you know,
Speaker 3: like we're within the realm of it's like it's past
Speaker 3: my limits, you know.
Speaker 1: I but you talked about now maybe like Kansas City
Speaker 1: a little bit. For me, I'm still worried about these
Speaker 1: in this injury front for the for the Bucks right now.
Speaker 1: They they've still got a lot of guys banged up
Speaker 1: that are supposed to be coming back for this game.
Speaker 1: But do you think the Brady's gonna have his full
Speaker 1: compliment of weapons?
Speaker 3: Not the full compliment, But you know, Mike Evans is returning.
Speaker 3: It looks like Julio Jones is going to play. Russell
Speaker 3: Gage has been playing through his hamstring injury, so like,
Speaker 3: I don't think we should expect him not to play.
Speaker 3: Chris Godwin, who knows left tackle Donovan Smith, We really
Speaker 3: don't know, but he is starting to get some of
Speaker 3: his players back, So I think that in part is
Speaker 3: why the line has moved. Also, like I will say,
Speaker 3: I don't know about the the venue situation for Tampa Bay,
Speaker 3: Like I don't know if the market was expecting. I
Speaker 3: would just say it's weird to me that the line
Speaker 3: has moved in this direction with the knowledge that the
Speaker 3: Buccaneers might not be playing this game at home, unless
Speaker 3: there actually has been clarification that they will be playing
Speaker 3: in Tampa Bay.
Speaker 1: As far as I know, I saw. I can look
Speaker 1: it up again, but I definitely saw a notification that
Speaker 1: they're going to play this game in Tampa Bay.
Speaker 3: Okay, So I think that explains then at least a
Speaker 3: part of this line move. But yeah, like I now,
Speaker 3: at Tampa Bay minus one, I do see some value
Speaker 3: on Camp the City. Again, I don't think that's anything
Speaker 3: I would be betting at this point, but you know,
Speaker 3: maybe callin with Betscope is able to find bets that
Speaker 3: have even more value on Kansas City, and that would
Speaker 3: be a way to navigate the market.
Speaker 2: Indeed, Colin, I'm actually going to flip it on you,
Speaker 2: so I know you're asking about the spreads the whole time,
Speaker 2: but one of the ways that I also use bet
Speaker 2: scope is actually not to start with my investment thesis first,
Speaker 2: but to identify the markets with the biggest discrepancies and
Speaker 2: see if there's a reason to essentially not bet them. So,
Speaker 2: I know we've been talking about the size of the
Speaker 2: whole time, but let me flip it on you and
Speaker 2: just say, like, do you either of you have opinions
Speaker 2: on the.
Speaker 4: Totals either way?
Speaker 2: I asked because we scroll through in these alternate totals
Speaker 2: market and we can see two books here points bet
Speaker 2: and FanDuel that are on the verge of a straight
Speaker 2: up arbitrage situation where you could bet both sides of
Speaker 2: these things if you just feel like fun and basically
Speaker 2: guarantee a zero percent return. Usually when that's the case,
Speaker 2: then if we have even the slightest inclination of directionally
Speaker 2: do we think the total is going to go over
Speaker 2: or under? We can capitalize on one of these And
Speaker 2: I looking at it, these are so far apart on
Speaker 2: either side of it. I'm indifferent on which side we have.
Speaker 2: But even if we have the slightest bit of intuition
Speaker 2: on the totals, this is a market that we should
Speaker 2: be targeting because the synthetic cold is essentially zero, and
Speaker 2: so once you're betting into a zero hold market, you're
Speaker 2: essentially free rolling it over the long term. So either
Speaker 2: of you have any opinions on the totals. I do.
Speaker 3: I have a position on under forty seven. The line
Speaker 3: is now forty five and a half, but I haven't
Speaker 3: projected at forty three point seven, so I still think
Speaker 3: that there's pretty decent value to the under. And I
Speaker 3: mean the thesis is these teams are going to run,
Speaker 3: you know, I mean the Buccaneers they have been a
Speaker 3: run heavy team and the and then when they have
Speaker 3: been trying to throw, they haven't been doing it all
Speaker 3: that efficiently. And then on the other side you have
Speaker 3: Kansas City, which is running more than they have previously.
Speaker 3: They don't have the explosive pass offense that they used
Speaker 3: to have, and they're going against the secondary that is
Speaker 3: probably the best in the league, if not the best,
Speaker 3: certainly top three. So this feels like a smash spot
Speaker 3: for the under.
Speaker 4: Absolutely.
Speaker 2: I mean, that's a perfectly good investment thesis right there.
Speaker 2: As you can see what we did with bet scope
Speaker 2: is we can punch in your projected total of forty
Speaker 2: three point seven, run it see how that affects all
Speaker 2: the other props and all the other markets, and updates
Speaker 2: the numbers accordingly, and we have our spit out recommended
Speaker 2: bet here.
Speaker 4: If you like under forty three three point seven, and
Speaker 4: by extension.
Speaker 2: You know, like you know you like the under on
Speaker 2: forty six and a half, you also like the under
Speaker 2: of thirty eight and a half, taking on a little
Speaker 2: bit more risk for a little bit more payout. As
Speaker 2: we saw in that previous prop tool comparison, FanDuel has
Speaker 2: the under thirty eight and a half with a pretty
Speaker 2: significantly higher payout than the rest of market consensus. If
Speaker 2: I want to target the under, I feel like this
Speaker 2: line at this payout at FanDuel is the best way
Speaker 2: to target it. And again that's where things like distribution
Speaker 2: shine and all of the math. We have the under
Speaker 2: the hood that basically does that full range of outcomes
Speaker 2: for you. We will surface those opportunities where if you
Speaker 2: like the under in general, let's figure out the exact
Speaker 2: totals and the exact payouts that will maximize your return
Speaker 2: and just give you kind of a pre selective sort
Speaker 2: order of exactly where you should be going to get
Speaker 2: that down.
Speaker 3: Yeah, thirty eight and a half. That is interesting. I mean,
Speaker 3: it's not all that far from forty three point seven,
Speaker 3: and you're still you're still with the key number of
Speaker 3: thirty eight there, So I actually, I do, I do
Speaker 3: find that one interesting, especially you said plus two fifty
Speaker 3: that's pretty significant.
Speaker 4: Two point fifty is large, even just comparing to other books.
Speaker 4: It is large.
Speaker 2: That is like a spot where you maybe want to
Speaker 2: take on a little bit more risk because the higher
Speaker 2: payout is in fact worth it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, now, how.
Speaker 1: About one more game here for you, Matt. We've got
Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers and the Rams on Monday Night Football,
Speaker 1: because for some reason, our primetime matches continue to be
Speaker 1: the NFL wanting us to suffer. We got the forty
Speaker 1: nine ers last week, we get them again this week.
Speaker 1: The Rams are getting two and a half points in
Speaker 1: Santa Clara.
Speaker 4: Here.
Speaker 1: I don't care about the historical trend of the forty
Speaker 1: nine ers having the Rams number. I'm all aboard the
Speaker 1: Los Angeles train in this one with the two and
Speaker 1: a half. Where are you going?
Speaker 3: Yeah? So looking now, I did bet this first to
Speaker 3: two and a half. I believe it's now one and
Speaker 3: a half across the market and that I would still
Speaker 3: bet it at one and a half, but that is
Speaker 3: that is the limit I have it projected for a picklem,
Speaker 3: so I think one and a half is probably right
Speaker 3: there at the limit. You look at some of the
Speaker 3: historic you had mentioned, Yeah, there is the historical trend
Speaker 3: of Kyle Shanahan just absolutely owning Sean McVay eight and
Speaker 3: three against the spread. It includes the postseason, but you
Speaker 3: know McVeigh has been good in primetime, fifteen ten and
Speaker 3: one against the spread in primetime, good on the road,
Speaker 3: twenty four and eighteen on the road as a road dog,
Speaker 3: eight and three against the spread, and eighteen twelve and
Speaker 3: one against the spread in division. And then Kyle Shanahan, Tom,
Speaker 3: you know exactly what I'm going to say. Shanahan as
Speaker 3: a home favorite is absolutely someone to bet against at home.
Speaker 3: He's fifteen twenty two and one against the spread as
Speaker 3: a favorite, seventeen twenty six and one against the spread,
Speaker 3: and as a home favorite seven fifteen and one against
Speaker 3: the spread on the money line, eleven eleven and twelve
Speaker 3: as a home favorite, which is good for a fifty
Speaker 3: percent return on investment per per bet Labs. And for me,
Speaker 3: this game comes down in the x's and o's. It
Speaker 3: comes down to the Rams defensive line against the forty
Speaker 3: nine Ers offensive line. That offensive line is in a
Speaker 3: really bad spot. Left tackle Trent Williams is almost certainly
Speaker 3: out for the game with an ankle injury. Center Daniel
Speaker 3: Brun's Goal is yet to play this year with a
Speaker 3: hamstring injury. He didn't even practice last week, so I
Speaker 3: don't think he's close to suiting up. So with the
Speaker 3: forty nine Ers missing their two most important offensive linemen,
Speaker 3: I think that puts him in a really bad spot
Speaker 3: against defensive tackle Aaron Donald, who I think could just destroy.
Speaker 3: And the forty nine Ers offense is built around their
Speaker 3: running game, right they're number three in the league with
Speaker 3: a fifty three point four percent rush rate, but the
Speaker 3: Rams defense is number one in rush EPA like, I
Speaker 3: don't think the forty nine Ers are going to be
Speaker 3: able to run the way that they want to run
Speaker 3: against the Rams front, and they could struggle in pass
Speaker 3: protection too without their two top offensive linemen. So given
Speaker 3: how good he is as a blocker, we might see
Speaker 3: tight end George Kittle stay in a little bit more
Speaker 3: to pass protect, which, like in theory, that's good, but
Speaker 3: in reality, that means one of your best receivers isn't
Speaker 3: out there running routes, and that's a bad thing overall.
Speaker 3: So I think the Rams have a significant edge over
Speaker 3: the forty nine ers in the trench matchup. We have
Speaker 3: them as the number two defensive line. The offensive line
Speaker 3: for the forty nine Ers ranked number eighteen. So if
Speaker 3: the forty nine Ers can't run and if they struggle
Speaker 3: to pass protect for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, they have basically
Speaker 3: nothing going for them on offense. And we saw what
Speaker 3: that looked like last week, right when they scored just
Speaker 3: ten points against the Broncos on Sunday Night Football. This
Speaker 3: line was Rams point five in the offseason, and I
Speaker 3: still think that if they shouldn't be favored at worse,
Speaker 3: this should be a pick them. I don't think we've
Speaker 3: seen enough in the past three weeks to justify the
Speaker 3: move from point five to plus two and a half.
Speaker 1: I'm fully with you on this one. I am all
Speaker 1: boy the Rams train, as I said, But Colin, I
Speaker 1: know there aren't too many props out for this one
Speaker 1: just yet. But is there any way that you're looking
Speaker 1: at to attack this game?
Speaker 2: I mean, that's why I always run it through the
Speaker 2: simulation engine first and then see there's any opportunities.
Speaker 4: I'm guessing it won't find.
Speaker 2: Like I mean, given where the line is at now,
Speaker 2: it probably won't identify any slam dunk markets to attack.
Speaker 2: As stated previously, that's just because there aren't many markets
Speaker 2: available in general, and so this is going to be
Speaker 2: one where as we get closer to Sunday night, as
Speaker 2: more markets come online, I'm going to be checking that
Speaker 2: far more often to see if there's any kind of
Speaker 2: misalignment in any of the prices where I can get
Speaker 2: down on exactly.
Speaker 4: Everything that you've just described.
Speaker 2: One of the other virtues that are worthwhile is sometimes
Speaker 2: it is worth it to be a little bit more patient,
Speaker 2: and if you have a thesis, you don't need to
Speaker 2: bet it immediately. It often behooves you to wait until
Speaker 2: more markets open up and you can identify those mispricings.
Speaker 2: So don't feel like you have to be compelled to
Speaker 2: bet it immediately. You can benefit from a little bit
Speaker 2: of patients and wait for some of these additional markets
Speaker 2: to come online, kind of like a snake in the
Speaker 2: grass waiting to stray.
Speaker 3: I'm going to not push back to what Colin just said,
Speaker 3: but like add to it, like supplement it to where
Speaker 3: I think there can be sort of the tiered approach
Speaker 3: where the markets that like, the best time to bet
Speaker 3: a market, generally speaking is when it first comes open,
Speaker 3: like that is when it will be the softest, and so, uh,
Speaker 3: if you like betting on spread total money line, I
Speaker 3: think it's earlier, Like earlier is better for betting on
Speaker 3: that if you if you actually have an edge there,
Speaker 3: and then as other markets come open, you can continue
Speaker 3: to employ your thesis in attacking the other markets. So
Speaker 3: and I will say, you know, like if you this
Speaker 3: is sort of like getting into like the practicality of
Speaker 3: like how you sports bet. If you attack only the
Speaker 3: alternative markets, like that will flag pretty quickly to a
Speaker 3: sports book that like not necessarily that you are sharp,
Speaker 3: but that like you are not square, that like you
Speaker 3: are looking at things outside of what the ordinary better
Speaker 3: looks at, and so like you will need to have
Speaker 3: some spreads and totals and money lines in there. It
Speaker 3: can't be all props and all alternate lines, or they
Speaker 3: might limit you or just shut you down entirely. So
Speaker 3: I think it's probably like the tiered approach of betting
Speaker 3: throughout the week as the value presents itself in various markets.
Speaker 1: There's the other factor there with betting the market early,
Speaker 1: as it's wing into the softest you get the advantage
Speaker 1: of the softest market, but the disadvantage of the least
Speaker 1: amount of information. Right there's anything that can happen between
Speaker 1: Sunday night and the next week, Guys getting hurt in practice,
Speaker 1: injury reports coming out from guys that we are waiting on,
Speaker 1: and obviously, you know, if you're waiting for the Thursday
Speaker 1: night game with Tua and it looks like he just
Speaker 1: left the game with the concussion, you're not gonna go
Speaker 1: ahead and bet that Thursday night line before you get
Speaker 1: that information. But with eyes and things that can happen
Speaker 1: over the course of the week, it is that drawback
Speaker 1: and you have to make that balance where you want
Speaker 1: to do it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think I think that's right. I
Speaker 3: would say that, Yeah, the information, there's like the wide
Speaker 3: range right to where if there's not much information that
Speaker 3: you are waiting on for a game, then it probably
Speaker 3: makes sense to bet it early. If there is a
Speaker 3: lot of information that you're waiting on, you still might
Speaker 3: be able to bet it early, but you might still
Speaker 3: want to think about the way in which you're doing
Speaker 3: it to try to leverage the uncertainty that is in
Speaker 3: that market.
Speaker 1: Indeed, and also the big thing that has changed from
Speaker 1: betting over the last two years to betting now. Of course,
Speaker 1: the last two years it was really hard to bet
Speaker 1: early because you never knew what was going to happen
Speaker 1: on Saturday night when it came to guys being out
Speaker 1: with the rona for the week. And that's finally behind this.
Speaker 1: Now I do not miss those betting days.
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, Now it just gets marked as illness YEP,
Speaker 3: injury report.
Speaker 1: Yeah all right, but that is going to do it
Speaker 1: for us here, guys, Colin, thank you so much for
Speaker 1: coming on today one more time. For everybody. Where can
Speaker 1: they find you in the great work that you're doing
Speaker 1: around the internet.
Speaker 2: You can find you can find me on Twitter at
Speaker 2: the handle of adj baseline. And then if you want
Speaker 2: to take a look at the tool yourself, which is
Speaker 2: currently free to use, you can go to betscope dot
Speaker 2: io and I run all of your thess and through
Speaker 2: our recommendation engine to surface the best markets.
Speaker 4: That you should be attacking for all of your best.
Speaker 1: Thank you once again so much for coming on today.
Speaker 1: The Betscope tool was very fascinating. I am excited to
Speaker 1: put it to good use in my betting, but for now,
Speaker 1: for Colin, Matt and myself, Tom, that is going to
Speaker 1: do it for us. Best of luck this weekend, guys,
Speaker 1: don't forget. If you want to bet, go to BETMGM
Speaker 1: dot com, sign up for an account today. Use the
Speaker 1: promo code Betting Pros when you sign up and you'll
Speaker 1: get a one thousand dollars risk free bet. And once again,
Speaker 1: thanks and congratulations to Matthew Derek on winning our signed
Speaker 1: Joe mix in Jersey. That's gonna do it for us, folks,
Speaker 1: and we will see you next episode.
Speaker 4: H m
Speaker 1: Hm hm