WEBVTT - Week 4 Best Bets with Colin Davey (Ep 210) 0:00:00.440 --> 0:00:04.120 Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast. 0:00:04.240 --> 0:00:06.520 It is NFL Week four and we are getting ready 0:00:06.559 --> 0:00:09.440 for the weekends late, which means it is time for 0:00:09.560 --> 0:00:12.479 us to break down some of our favorite games. Joining 0:00:12.520 --> 0:00:15.280 me to do just that as always none other than 0:00:15.360 --> 0:00:19.560 Matt f the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman, and today are 0:00:19.760 --> 0:00:23.400 very special guest, Colin Davey of bet Scope is going 0:00:23.440 --> 0:00:26.640 to be walking us through some fantastic tools that can 0:00:26.640 --> 0:00:29.520 help you guys when it comes to making your picks. Colin, 0:00:29.600 --> 0:00:31.440 thank you so much for joining us today. How are 0:00:31.480 --> 0:00:31.800 you doing? 0:00:32.440 --> 0:00:34.680 I feel like I got to give a pre apology 0:00:34.720 --> 0:00:36.879 because the last time Freeman and I were on a 0:00:36.920 --> 0:00:39.479 mic together, we're doing golf stuff. So just on a 0:00:39.479 --> 0:00:42.640 sheer habit, I may be getting giving my opinions on 0:00:42.720 --> 0:00:46.280 Headecki Maasa Yama, but that is from a distant life 0:00:46.360 --> 0:00:47.599 to say. 0:00:47.120 --> 0:00:49.800 Yeah, that's that's a long time ago. What was what 0:00:49.880 --> 0:00:51.600 was the metric? It was adjusted? 0:00:52.479 --> 0:00:56.360 What's the metrics? Something like adjusted strokes? 0:00:57.160 --> 0:00:58.800 Yeah, justice strokes gained. 0:00:59.160 --> 0:01:02.000 It was not strokes games. Remember I didn't like strokes 0:01:02.000 --> 0:01:02.640 game back. 0:01:02.480 --> 0:01:06.160 Right, But it was adjusted. It was adjusted strokes something. 0:01:06.280 --> 0:01:12.200 But maybe it's a Justice Strow anyway. Yeah, the fut right, yes, yeah, 0:01:12.240 --> 0:01:15.000 the Fantasy Labs days, those were those were good days. 0:01:15.160 --> 0:01:17.560 And uh yeah, I mean you were a monster with 0:01:17.600 --> 0:01:20.600 the projections and so Tom, I don't know if you 0:01:20.880 --> 0:01:23.640 know this about Colin and calling correct me where I'm wrong. 0:01:24.200 --> 0:01:24.320 Uh. 0:01:24.920 --> 0:01:29.560 He twice won the Sloan mi I t hackethon and 0:01:29.720 --> 0:01:32.000 he won on Jeopardy. 0:01:32.280 --> 0:01:35.119 Wow. I did know that about Jeopardy as a matter 0:01:35.160 --> 0:01:35.520 of fact. 0:01:36.360 --> 0:01:39.360 Yeah, but the Sloan Hackathon thing, and you were the 0:01:39.400 --> 0:01:41.560 original winner of the hackathon right. 0:01:41.760 --> 0:01:44.360 It was the first two years that they did the competition. 0:01:44.440 --> 0:01:47.400 I won both of them. Decided I have nothing left 0:01:47.440 --> 0:01:49.680 to prove, hung my hat up. Call me when they 0:01:49.680 --> 0:01:52.600 do the Tournament of Champions. I am out of the 0:01:52.640 --> 0:01:54.320 hackathon game for the time being. 0:01:54.480 --> 0:01:57.520 Yeah, that is it's a real like dunk on everyone 0:01:57.720 --> 0:02:00.160 to win the second year and then just be like, 0:02:00.200 --> 0:02:02.280 you know what, I gotta retire. It's not fair to 0:02:02.400 --> 0:02:04.320 all of the other merror mortals out there for me 0:02:04.360 --> 0:02:05.840 to do this three times in a row. 0:02:06.240 --> 0:02:07.880 Hey, your words, not mine. 0:02:08.000 --> 0:02:10.720 Yeah, I can very much relate to this. With the 0:02:10.720 --> 0:02:13.560 town third grade spelling be back in my hometown, I 0:02:13.639 --> 0:02:15.160 know exactly where you're coming from here. 0:02:17.000 --> 0:02:19.520 All right, guys, we have a lot. 0:02:19.360 --> 0:02:22.360 To get to today, but before we do that real quick, 0:02:22.440 --> 0:02:25.360 I just want to announce the winner of the autograph 0:02:25.520 --> 0:02:28.320 Joe Mixon jersey that we have for you courtesy of 0:02:28.440 --> 0:02:33.680 Pristineauction dot Com is none other than Matthew Dikett. Please 0:02:33.720 --> 0:02:36.359 get in touch with our customer support agents at info 0:02:36.480 --> 0:02:39.800 at Bettingpros dot com with your mailing address and proof 0:02:39.840 --> 0:02:42.480 of your subscription to the Betting Pros YouTube channel, and 0:02:42.480 --> 0:02:45.760 we will get that jersey shipped out to you post taste. 0:02:46.160 --> 0:02:48.880 Maybe not for this weekend, but hey, if you're quick enough, 0:02:49.080 --> 0:02:52.200 maybe you have it for well next week because the 0:02:52.280 --> 0:02:55.160 Dolphins and the Bengals play each other well before this 0:02:55.200 --> 0:02:57.919 podcast is actually going new air. But again, the winner 0:02:58.000 --> 0:03:02.920 is Matthew Dikett. Congrats, and now guys, let's get into 0:03:02.960 --> 0:03:06.160 it focusing on some of these weekend games. 0:03:06.200 --> 0:03:08.280 Matt, We're going to start off basically here. 0:03:08.360 --> 0:03:10.680 The plan is we're going to talk about your lines, 0:03:10.960 --> 0:03:13.600 and then Colin is gonna come through and completely berate 0:03:13.720 --> 0:03:16.160 you using his tools to find a better bet. That 0:03:16.240 --> 0:03:17.040 sound like a plan to. 0:03:17.040 --> 0:03:20.280 You, Colin, That sounds like a plan to me. Well, 0:03:20.440 --> 0:03:21.200 the first. 0:03:20.919 --> 0:03:23.160 Game that you got up. Okay, Matt, you want a word. 0:03:23.040 --> 0:03:26.680 In edgewise now, no, just it's already like old times. 0:03:26.960 --> 0:03:30.200 Yeah, a lot of blasts from the past for you 0:03:30.240 --> 0:03:32.760 on the last couple episodes here, But your line in 0:03:32.840 --> 0:03:37.120 this game, we're going Bears at Giants. You've got three 0:03:37.160 --> 0:03:40.720 and a half here, and it looks like that is 0:03:40.720 --> 0:03:43.560 still indeed pretty much the number. The Bears have moved 0:03:43.560 --> 0:03:46.520 to three and even two and a half in some spots. 0:03:46.720 --> 0:03:48.200 Do you still like them without the hook? 0:03:48.880 --> 0:03:50.920 Yeah? So when I wrote this up, it was three 0:03:50.920 --> 0:03:53.400 and a half consensus. Now I'm looking at the betting 0:03:53.440 --> 0:03:57.000 pros odds page, seems to be around three. I have 0:03:57.120 --> 0:04:01.240 this projected out at one and a half, So I 0:04:01.280 --> 0:04:05.160 still think that there's value landing on three. Obviously would 0:04:05.160 --> 0:04:09.000 have liked to have been able to get it closer 0:04:09.000 --> 0:04:10.680 to kickoff at three and a half. But I still 0:04:10.720 --> 0:04:14.120 have value on this. And you know, some of it 0:04:14.160 --> 0:04:16.640 is that I don't think the Bears are quite as 0:04:16.680 --> 0:04:18.839 bad as they've looked, and I do think the Giants 0:04:18.920 --> 0:04:21.919 are worse than they've looked. Specifically, like you look at 0:04:21.960 --> 0:04:24.080 some of the trends. I mean, Daniel Jones one and 0:04:24.160 --> 0:04:26.680 four against the spread as a home favorite, Like, he's 0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:28.680 just that is not the spot in which you want 0:04:28.680 --> 0:04:31.239 to bet on him as a road dog. Love Daniel 0:04:31.320 --> 0:04:35.440 Jones as a home favorite. He's absolutely horrible. And I 0:04:35.480 --> 0:04:37.600 think a lot of this game for me comes down 0:04:37.640 --> 0:04:40.839 to the Bears rush offense against the Giants rush defense. 0:04:40.880 --> 0:04:43.560 So David Montgomery number one running back for the Bears, 0:04:43.960 --> 0:04:46.479 I honestly don't even care if he plays. There's a 0:04:46.560 --> 0:04:49.960 chance that he plays, but probably won't even so it 0:04:50.000 --> 0:04:53.160 doesn't matter because his backup Khalil Herbert has been fantastic 0:04:53.440 --> 0:04:55.839 playing and places in Montgomery. You know, had twenty carries, 0:04:55.839 --> 0:04:58.320 one hundred and fifty seven yards, two touchdowns last week. 0:04:58.680 --> 0:05:00.840 Last year in four games as to fill in, he 0:05:00.880 --> 0:05:03.000 had three hundred and forty four yards rushing in a 0:05:03.080 --> 0:05:06.200 touchdown on seventy eight carries. And then quarterback Justin Fields 0:05:06.279 --> 0:05:09.279 is always a rushing threat, has twenty seven carries this year. 0:05:09.600 --> 0:05:12.719 The Bears are top twelve and like all the different 0:05:12.800 --> 0:05:17.440 key rushing efficiency metrics that you might look at, you know, 0:05:17.600 --> 0:05:21.599 epa success rate, and then the Giants defense is outside 0:05:21.640 --> 0:05:24.200 the top twenty in those metrics, and there's a pretty 0:05:24.200 --> 0:05:26.839 good chance they're going to be without defensive lineman Leonard 0:05:26.880 --> 0:05:30.760 Williams and also edge jahad Ward. And so I think 0:05:30.800 --> 0:05:34.960 the Bears control the game for a chunk of it 0:05:35.200 --> 0:05:38.080 with their running attack, and I think that keeps this close. 0:05:39.120 --> 0:05:41.440 I want to know the total, not on the score, 0:05:41.480 --> 0:05:43.360 which frankly you could set it too, and I might 0:05:43.440 --> 0:05:46.680 take the under in this game, But total on pass 0:05:46.800 --> 0:05:48.640 is thrown here because on the one hand, you have 0:05:48.839 --> 0:05:51.839 Justin Fields, who's thrown the ball forty five times through 0:05:51.960 --> 0:05:54.560 three games this season. Joe Flackel, I'm pretty sure is 0:05:54.600 --> 0:05:57.479 averaging more throws than he than he has all year. 0:05:57.960 --> 0:06:00.440 But then on the other side, with the Giant, all 0:06:00.480 --> 0:06:03.600 of your receivers are either injured or Kenny Galladay, and 0:06:03.640 --> 0:06:07.719 that might even be worse. It's a battle of two 0:06:07.920 --> 0:06:10.560 completely stoppable run defenses. You talked about the Giants there 0:06:10.600 --> 0:06:16.120 twenty eighth and Dboa the Bears are twenty second. But Colin, 0:06:16.240 --> 0:06:19.680 what are you thinking here? Let's bring up bet scope 0:06:19.920 --> 0:06:22.360 and talk about what you're seeing in this game. 0:06:22.920 --> 0:06:25.400 Absolutely so to give a little bit of context of 0:06:25.440 --> 0:06:29.400 what we're looking here at here. Bet Scope is basically 0:06:29.440 --> 0:06:32.240 a series of betting tools designed to help you match 0:06:32.279 --> 0:06:34.320 your beliefs and what you think will happen with the 0:06:34.360 --> 0:06:37.640 game with the most appropriate market that you should be 0:06:37.680 --> 0:06:41.000 getting your money down. So over here we have a 0:06:41.040 --> 0:06:46.560 combination on screen where this is basically of all a 0:06:46.680 --> 0:06:50.559 different markets currently available. As we get closer to game time, 0:06:50.839 --> 0:06:53.640 we expect more props to be available around things like 0:06:53.960 --> 0:06:57.040 bears and giants, running backs, giants wide receivers as they 0:06:57.040 --> 0:06:58.920 come in. But we can kind of take a look 0:06:58.920 --> 0:07:01.480 at all the different price is at all the different 0:07:01.520 --> 0:07:03.600 markets that we're looking at with a kind of. 0:07:03.560 --> 0:07:04.640 Easy click of the button. 0:07:05.120 --> 0:07:06.919 Now, one of the other things that we can do 0:07:07.040 --> 0:07:10.720 with this is basically try to discover all of the 0:07:10.760 --> 0:07:13.720 markets that match your betting thesis. And so, Freedman, what 0:07:13.760 --> 0:07:15.680 I'd like to go back to you is like, let's 0:07:15.720 --> 0:07:19.560 explore your I guess quote unquote investment thesis for lack 0:07:19.560 --> 0:07:21.240 of a better term, and all the things. 0:07:21.040 --> 0:07:21.920 You just described. 0:07:22.360 --> 0:07:25.560 I heard a lot of potentially legitimate reasons, like why 0:07:25.600 --> 0:07:28.640 you might like the bears here and bears plus two 0:07:28.800 --> 0:07:30.960 plus two and a half depending on you know where 0:07:31.000 --> 0:07:33.400 we're getting the they're even still at plus three at 0:07:33.400 --> 0:07:36.480 some places is a perfectly great way to get your 0:07:36.480 --> 0:07:39.640 money down. But everything you describe is and I'll ask 0:07:39.680 --> 0:07:42.280 you a little bit of a devil's advocate question, Why 0:07:42.320 --> 0:07:45.080 did you not settle on Daniel Jones under on the 0:07:45.120 --> 0:07:48.360 pass props. Why did you not settle on Justin Fields 0:07:48.400 --> 0:07:51.560 over on his rushing yards? Why are you not necessarily 0:07:51.600 --> 0:07:54.640 looking at the alternate spread markets to see if there's 0:07:54.720 --> 0:07:58.280 a slightly better price that captures the same general direction 0:07:58.520 --> 0:07:59.960 of where you think the game is going to go. 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:03.040 So how did you settle on just your stock bears 0:08:03.720 --> 0:08:05.480 plus three or plus two and a half? 0:08:05.960 --> 0:08:09.440 Yes, this is a very loaded question, as you might gather. 0:08:10.640 --> 0:08:13.920 Yeah, so it is a good question, I would say. 0:08:14.000 --> 0:08:18.920 Closer to kickoff, I think it makes sense to expound 0:08:20.240 --> 0:08:23.680 on your thesis, your investment thesis, and look to get 0:08:23.720 --> 0:08:27.080 action in the alternative markets earlier in the week, which 0:08:27.120 --> 0:08:28.520 is when I tend to do a lot of my 0:08:28.640 --> 0:08:32.520 research and establish some of my positions. Really, the best 0:08:32.559 --> 0:08:34.360 way to do that, or sometimes the only way to 0:08:34.400 --> 0:08:38.120 do that, is by attacking the spread market before those 0:08:38.200 --> 0:08:42.080 lines kind of get bet into place. And so that 0:08:42.280 --> 0:08:45.640 is the reason why I would go with the traditional spread. 0:08:45.800 --> 0:08:50.079 But obviously, as props come out as more alternative lines 0:08:50.080 --> 0:08:53.760 are released, it creates more opportunities in the market, and 0:08:53.880 --> 0:08:55.760 it would make sense to try to exploit those. 0:08:56.400 --> 0:08:58.720 It absolutely does, and I think we're all in a 0:08:58.720 --> 0:09:01.800 consensus that this is the way that lines get hammered 0:09:01.840 --> 0:09:04.640 into shape. You start with the first available spreads and 0:09:04.679 --> 0:09:07.040 totals if you feel like your edge is bigger there. 0:09:07.360 --> 0:09:09.520 It is basically the only market that you can get 0:09:09.559 --> 0:09:12.720 down in. As you get closer to kickoff and these 0:09:12.760 --> 0:09:16.559 new markets spring up, it absolutely behooves you to go 0:09:16.600 --> 0:09:19.560 through every single one, examine all the prices, and figure 0:09:19.559 --> 0:09:23.200 out which of the markets most closely match your investment thesis. 0:09:23.600 --> 0:09:27.200 As we all know, it is incredibly cumbersome to go 0:09:27.320 --> 0:09:32.040 through potentially eighty different markets at seven different sports books. 0:09:32.280 --> 0:09:36.120 The permutations can get pretty overwhelming, and for most of 0:09:36.160 --> 0:09:39.120 us it's just not feasible to go an odds shop 0:09:39.200 --> 0:09:41.560 and every single one of those. Combine it with the 0:09:41.559 --> 0:09:44.760 fact that some of these favorable prices are only available 0:09:44.840 --> 0:09:46.960 during short windows, and you have to be able to 0:09:46.960 --> 0:09:50.440 capitalize on a very short timeframe window, and so what 0:09:50.480 --> 0:09:53.319 we've developed a BET scope, is a way to basically 0:09:53.360 --> 0:09:57.040 scan the entire market and surface those most favorable bets 0:09:57.080 --> 0:09:59.480 at a click of a button and all we need 0:09:59.520 --> 0:10:02.839 for that. But process is a single belief. So let's 0:10:02.880 --> 0:10:05.280 go back to your original thesis. You basically have this 0:10:05.360 --> 0:10:08.959 projected at fair price. Is Giants minus one and a 0:10:09.000 --> 0:10:11.480 half is the fair line in your view? 0:10:11.520 --> 0:10:11.920 Correct? 0:10:12.840 --> 0:10:15.000 So what we can do is we can go over 0:10:15.320 --> 0:10:17.600 to the spread box here and instead of you know, 0:10:17.679 --> 0:10:21.200 the consensus is around something, just over you know, minus two. 0:10:22.160 --> 0:10:27.000 As a side note, the spread consensus is slightly different 0:10:27.040 --> 0:10:30.840 than an average scoring differential. There's a lot of complicated 0:10:30.880 --> 0:10:33.920 distribution math that is an explainer for why you might 0:10:33.960 --> 0:10:36.920 see a slightly different number in the average spread your 0:10:36.960 --> 0:10:39.680 scoring differential versus the spread numbers that are up there. 0:10:39.720 --> 0:10:42.400 But that is a subject for another day. But let's 0:10:42.400 --> 0:10:43.719 approximate it to say, on. 0:10:43.760 --> 0:10:45.600 Average, you think the Giants are going to win by 0:10:45.679 --> 0:10:48.040 one and a half instead of the you know two 0:10:48.120 --> 0:10:49.360 two and a half they're projected. 0:10:49.760 --> 0:10:51.840 What we can do is we can. 0:10:51.760 --> 0:10:56.359 Update that spread number and run it through our correlations 0:10:56.400 --> 0:11:00.360 engine and bet calculator. And what that will do is say, 0:11:00.480 --> 0:11:02.720 in a world in which you're correct and that is 0:11:02.720 --> 0:11:06.120 the true line, there are a lot of other bets 0:11:06.240 --> 0:11:08.360 that also need to be adjusted, because in a world 0:11:08.400 --> 0:11:11.280 where that is true, we will need to adjust all 0:11:11.320 --> 0:11:15.600 of other numbers accordingly. So I look here, and there 0:11:15.640 --> 0:11:19.360 don't seem to be any particularly special markets that show 0:11:19.440 --> 0:11:21.600 any kind of huge price discrepancies. 0:11:22.559 --> 0:11:23.720 I think there's all. 0:11:23.760 --> 0:11:26.480 If we don't see any particular juicy opportunities, we can 0:11:26.559 --> 0:11:29.560 kind of stick to our standard stock, you know, bears 0:11:29.600 --> 0:11:32.520 plus two plus two and a half plus three. But 0:11:32.880 --> 0:11:34.960 normally the way that we want to get down on 0:11:35.000 --> 0:11:39.200 this is identifying markets with significant enough price discrepancies that 0:11:39.240 --> 0:11:42.520 are correlated to the markets that were their original kind 0:11:42.559 --> 0:11:45.360 of investment thesis. As of game time or as of 0:11:45.640 --> 0:11:48.720 you know, Thursday. Right now, I don't see any particular 0:11:48.760 --> 0:11:53.480 markets that are worth like especially worth attacking beyond I'm 0:11:53.520 --> 0:11:56.720 sure to check, you know, closer to kickoff, as these 0:11:56.760 --> 0:11:59.760 markets have a little bit more fluctuations. So I like, 0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:01.840 as of now, I like your original bet. 0:12:02.040 --> 0:12:02.240 Yeah. 0:12:02.240 --> 0:12:04.280 I would say. One thing to keep in mind is 0:12:04.320 --> 0:12:07.800 that because of the running back uncertainty with Montgomery, we 0:12:07.880 --> 0:12:11.400 don't have a prop for him or Khalil Herbert in 0:12:11.440 --> 0:12:13.760 the market yet, and I think the running backs would 0:12:13.800 --> 0:12:20.199 probably be the likeliest the likeliest exploitable opportunities given the thesis, 0:12:20.600 --> 0:12:22.959 because you know, like Justin Fields, he already has a 0:12:23.000 --> 0:12:26.080 really low passing prop. The same with Daniel Jones. So 0:12:26.559 --> 0:12:30.440 you know, moving from two point one as the general 0:12:30.520 --> 0:12:33.400 consensus line down to one point five, I don't think 0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:36.120 it would impact their lines all that much. The guys 0:12:36.120 --> 0:12:39.480 who would probably impact the most don't have odds yet 0:12:39.520 --> 0:12:40.400 in the prop market. 0:12:41.000 --> 0:12:43.400 Yeah, and I think that what you just described is 0:12:43.440 --> 0:12:47.000 a process that everyone should really go through. Once you 0:12:47.080 --> 0:12:51.000 have your investment thesis, you should be really mindful of 0:12:51.080 --> 0:12:54.960 exactly which Marcus you're choosing to attack that thesis, because 0:12:55.000 --> 0:12:57.360 there are too many people that just go through the 0:12:57.400 --> 0:13:00.640 stock spread and don't really look for any other opportunities 0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:04.040 in other markets. And the way to really capitalize on 0:13:04.160 --> 0:13:08.839 Supercharger ROI is to have total awareness of all those markets. 0:13:08.480 --> 0:13:09.320 At all times. 0:13:09.520 --> 0:13:12.720 That is far easier to do with a market scanning 0:13:12.760 --> 0:13:16.720 tool like Betscope that will surface those opportunities automatically given 0:13:16.720 --> 0:13:17.480 a single input. 0:13:18.840 --> 0:13:21.480 So what for this game? Then you talk about that 0:13:21.520 --> 0:13:24.680 in minus one and a half points here, if you 0:13:24.800 --> 0:13:28.120 were to try and find something for that market, what 0:13:28.120 --> 0:13:29.320 would you be looking at, Matt. 0:13:29.840 --> 0:13:33.199 If I look at you at what markets have special 0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:37.199 opportunities capitalized. We do see kind of the green highlight 0:13:37.320 --> 0:13:39.800 around the money line for here, and we do see 0:13:39.840 --> 0:13:42.640 that there is pretty low synthetic hold. If you're curious 0:13:42.640 --> 0:13:45.800 on what all of these colors mean as the color 0:13:45.840 --> 0:13:48.959 as the boxes and different bets are highlighted using different colors, 0:13:49.240 --> 0:13:51.520 we do have an explainer up here and kind of 0:13:51.520 --> 0:13:54.400 a little help box over here that indicates what all 0:13:54.440 --> 0:13:57.080 these colors mean. In the case of the green box, 0:13:57.120 --> 0:14:00.319 we see that the synthetic hold, meaning you know, you 0:14:00.320 --> 0:14:02.280 if to take the overall hold or the juice like 0:14:02.320 --> 0:14:05.120 when you take the best obs available across all sports books, 0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:08.000 this is a market that does have low synthetic hold, 0:14:08.120 --> 0:14:10.839 and so I think if you really wanted to capitalize 0:14:10.880 --> 0:14:14.520 on that, the best opportunity that's kind of slightly off 0:14:14.559 --> 0:14:17.240 market from everyone else is the money line at FanDuel, 0:14:17.400 --> 0:14:19.880 where you know, this is a pretty standard at this point, 0:14:19.920 --> 0:14:23.240 just a standard line shopping exercise where you can probably 0:14:23.280 --> 0:14:27.320 squeak out a little bit more ROI capitalizing on Bear's 0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:29.480 money line at plus one thirty six, You're going to 0:14:29.520 --> 0:14:31.520 get a little bit of better price there, and you 0:14:31.560 --> 0:14:33.760 can see when you compare it to DraftKings, Like, let's say, 0:14:34.000 --> 0:14:36.720 like your thesis is Fade Freeman at all times because 0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:38.240 he's a hack and you know you don't really want 0:14:38.240 --> 0:14:40.360 to pay attention to him. The best way that I 0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:43.120 would do that would be to capitalize and bet on 0:14:43.160 --> 0:14:45.760 the Giants money line at DraftKings, because you can see 0:14:46.000 --> 0:14:48.400 how clearly off market it is from everywhere else. 0:14:48.440 --> 0:14:50.080 And we'll go out of our way, out of. 0:14:50.000 --> 0:14:53.080 Our way to highlight those markets that have those either 0:14:53.320 --> 0:14:56.440 really low holes, split markets, arbitrage opportunities. 0:14:56.680 --> 0:14:58.240 We will go out of our way to. 0:14:58.280 --> 0:15:01.560 Highlight the markets that haven think a price discrepancies that 0:15:01.600 --> 0:15:04.320 are indicative of that's maybe the attack factor that you 0:15:04.360 --> 0:15:06.320 want to go in on for your investment thesis. 0:15:06.600 --> 0:15:08.200 Yeah, and you know, to follow up on what Colin 0:15:08.240 --> 0:15:10.480 said there, and I would say, in all fairness, if 0:15:10.520 --> 0:15:13.920 you are on the bears in this spot, it probably 0:15:13.960 --> 0:15:16.760 does make more sense to bet the money line versus 0:15:16.960 --> 0:15:20.960 the We'll say, like to the two that you're getting 0:15:21.000 --> 0:15:23.720 in the market, because if they're going to if they're 0:15:23.760 --> 0:15:25.880 going to have a good game, if they're going to dominate, 0:15:25.920 --> 0:15:28.480 they're probably not winning by one or two points. It's 0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:33.560 probably more like three, so I don't know. I prefer. 0:15:34.000 --> 0:15:37.000 I actually do prefer in general the money line in 0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:38.400 this spot to this bread. 0:15:39.120 --> 0:15:41.320 Guys, real quick, I want to talk to you about Sleeper. 0:15:41.600 --> 0:15:44.720 Sleeper is the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions 0:15:44.720 --> 0:15:47.560 of players. You probably already have a fantasy league on there. 0:15:47.800 --> 0:15:49.840 My friends and I changed over this year and I 0:15:49.920 --> 0:15:53.520 absolutely love it. It's a game changing product unlike anything 0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:56.520 else in the industry, and now you can win on 0:15:56.680 --> 0:16:00.960 Sleeper by playing their new over undergame. It's super simple. 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Along with over under integrated into the fantasy experience, itself. 0:16:31.960 --> 0:16:34.600 It's insanely fun to ride it out together. So stop 0:16:34.600 --> 0:16:37.200 what you're doing and download Sleeper now to play their 0:16:37.240 --> 0:16:40.440 new over undergame. Have fun with your friends and make 0:16:40.520 --> 0:16:43.120 some money. Use the promo code Betting Pros when you 0:16:43.160 --> 0:16:45.320 sign up for a Sleeper account today, and Sleeper will 0:16:45.360 --> 0:16:49.320 automatically credit your account one hundred dollars to get you started. 0:16:49.600 --> 0:16:52.320 In terms of conditions apply, see Sleeper dot com forty tilS. 0:16:53.560 --> 0:16:54.840 Now, how about this next. 0:16:54.640 --> 0:16:57.840 Game that we have up here, gentlemen, We're gonna be 0:16:57.960 --> 0:17:02.160 looking at the Cardinals going up against the Panthers. Matt, 0:17:02.240 --> 0:17:04.600 you have the Cardinals plus one and a half, which 0:17:04.720 --> 0:17:06.720 is still the line that you're going to be getting 0:17:06.720 --> 0:17:09.960 pretty much anywhere in this one. And what are you 0:17:10.000 --> 0:17:10.760 thinking in this game? 0:17:11.560 --> 0:17:11.760 Yeah? 0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:16.440 I have the Cardinals as one point seventy five favorites 0:17:16.800 --> 0:17:19.520 in this game. Like I do not think there is 0:17:19.600 --> 0:17:23.920 a world in which Carolina should be favored. Like say that, Yeah, 0:17:24.440 --> 0:17:28.120 I just I do not see it. You know, I'm 0:17:28.440 --> 0:17:32.520 looking at these teams, looking at what they've done, and 0:17:33.080 --> 0:17:36.280 given the priors that I had entering the season, I 0:17:37.119 --> 0:17:40.640 don't think we've seen enough out of Carolina to move 0:17:40.720 --> 0:17:45.720 the number in this direction, and Cliff Kingsbury trash. His 0:17:46.160 --> 0:17:49.200 scheme is so bad. He doesn't have a scheme. It's 0:17:49.240 --> 0:17:52.400 just Kyler. Please go bail me out. But that said, 0:17:53.080 --> 0:17:56.439 he's actually been a I would say he's even been 0:17:56.480 --> 0:17:59.480 a good coach, but he's been a beneficiary of incorrect 0:17:59.600 --> 0:18:02.960 line when he has been in certain spots. On the road, 0:18:03.040 --> 0:18:06.640 he's eighteen six and two against the spread. As an underdog, 0:18:06.760 --> 0:18:09.960 he's nineteen nine and two against the spread, and as 0:18:10.000 --> 0:18:14.000 a road dog he is an outrageous fourteen three and 0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:17.119 two against the spread. On the money line as a 0:18:17.240 --> 0:18:19.639 road dog, twelve and seven. And then you look at 0:18:19.680 --> 0:18:23.760 Matt Ruhle, who is the exact opposite of that. At home, 0:18:24.000 --> 0:18:26.960 he's five and thirteen against the spread. As a favorite, 0:18:27.160 --> 0:18:30.040 he is three and ten against the spread, and as 0:18:30.080 --> 0:18:32.840 a home favorite against the spread and on the money 0:18:32.920 --> 0:18:36.920 line he is one and seven, absolutely horrible. So you 0:18:37.080 --> 0:18:40.960 have like these two coaches lining up perfectly in the 0:18:41.040 --> 0:18:43.480 exact spots where you should be betting on one and 0:18:43.600 --> 0:18:47.840 betting against the other. And look you have Kyler Murray 0:18:48.040 --> 0:18:51.520 versus Baker Mayfield, and Baker Mayfield is somehow a favorite. 0:18:51.760 --> 0:18:54.520 I feel like that pretty much says it all. You know, 0:18:54.560 --> 0:18:57.040 both of these teams have similar advantages in the running game. 0:18:57.359 --> 0:18:59.719 The Cardinals offense is number two in rush success rate, 0:18:59.720 --> 0:19:02.920 the Payanther's defense is number fifteen in that metric, and 0:19:03.000 --> 0:19:05.679 then the Panthers offense is number two in rush EPA. 0:19:06.080 --> 0:19:08.879 The Cardinals defense is number fifteen in that metric. I 0:19:08.920 --> 0:19:11.040 think both teams want to lean on the ground game, 0:19:11.280 --> 0:19:14.240 But when the Cardinals choose to pass, they have Kyler 0:19:14.359 --> 0:19:16.920 Murray and he has a massive edge relative to Baker 0:19:16.960 --> 0:19:20.040 Mayfield and a direct edge against the Panthers defense and 0:19:20.200 --> 0:19:22.399 the secondary. You know, just kind of looking at our 0:19:22.480 --> 0:19:25.320 Fantasy pros unit power rankings, we have Kyler Murray's the 0:19:25.400 --> 0:19:28.760 number nine quarterback in the league. The defense for the 0:19:28.840 --> 0:19:31.479 Panthers is number nineteen. And as bad as we might 0:19:31.520 --> 0:19:34.000 think the Cardinals offensive line is, it's no worse than 0:19:34.040 --> 0:19:37.000 the Panthers defensive line. Like we have the Cardinals with 0:19:37.080 --> 0:19:39.560 the number twenty four offensive line the Panthers with the 0:19:39.640 --> 0:19:42.560 number twenty four defensive line. So I think, you know, 0:19:42.720 --> 0:19:46.000 per usual, Murray is the difference in this game and 0:19:46.119 --> 0:19:49.800 in the offseason market this number was Cardinals minus two 0:19:50.400 --> 0:19:52.960 and now it is Cardinals plus one and a half 0:19:53.240 --> 0:19:57.359 plus two at some spots. I just I can't imagine 0:19:57.600 --> 0:20:00.880 that we have seen enough in three games to move 0:20:01.000 --> 0:20:05.440 this number that much. So I will be taking Cardinals 0:20:06.000 --> 0:20:10.600 as dogs on the road, very very lustily. I will 0:20:10.640 --> 0:20:11.639 take them in the spot. 0:20:12.240 --> 0:20:13.800 Well, you know the best way that you can do 0:20:13.960 --> 0:20:16.000 that right now, the best odds you're getting. You've got 0:20:16.080 --> 0:20:19.760 bet MGM at plus two on the Cardinals, still hanging 0:20:19.800 --> 0:20:22.919 that number right now, And if you wanted to take 0:20:22.960 --> 0:20:25.960 advantage of a great offer to bet that at bet mgm, 0:20:26.240 --> 0:20:27.959 you should sign up for an account today and use 0:20:28.000 --> 0:20:31.000 the promo code betting pros for one thousand dollars risk 0:20:31.119 --> 0:20:33.480 free bet right off the bat. Maybe you use that 0:20:33.640 --> 0:20:37.200 on this Cardinals plus two line, just saying there's some 0:20:37.359 --> 0:20:41.879 potential there. But Colin, where would you be looking, given 0:20:42.080 --> 0:20:44.080 all of the tools at bet Scope, what is that 0:20:44.280 --> 0:20:47.640 telling you is the best play here in Cardinals versus Panthers. 0:20:48.400 --> 0:20:53.160 So coaching driven investment, THESS or lines or angles whatever 0:20:53.200 --> 0:20:56.240 you want to take, are usually pretty tougher to diagnose 0:20:56.359 --> 0:20:58.560 because you know, normally when we're talking about how we 0:20:58.600 --> 0:21:00.439 think the game is going to go slightly different than 0:21:00.520 --> 0:21:02.639 the market we can key it in on you know, 0:21:02.760 --> 0:21:06.600 specific player matchups, I think coaching tendencies and how they 0:21:06.640 --> 0:21:09.360 affect and all those trends and things like that are real, 0:21:09.520 --> 0:21:12.800 but it's really tougher to transmute that into something like 0:21:12.880 --> 0:21:15.320 the prop market, where you have a clear cut like 0:21:15.520 --> 0:21:19.199 this will influence like this particular player will play by 0:21:19.200 --> 0:21:22.000 it or worse than usual, And so I tend to 0:21:22.160 --> 0:21:25.000 lean into just you know, you can stick with the 0:21:25.040 --> 0:21:28.359 standard spreads and total stock markets, but usually there is 0:21:28.440 --> 0:21:31.120 some value to be found in the alternate markets as well. 0:21:31.640 --> 0:21:34.840 So one thing we also highlight here is all of 0:21:34.920 --> 0:21:37.760 these alternate spread markets. And what we see is interesting 0:21:38.359 --> 0:21:41.720 is there's already there's already been some pretty significant price 0:21:41.800 --> 0:21:44.280 movement in the meantime, because there was a moment here 0:21:44.400 --> 0:21:47.520 where we did see at some point Arizona plus seven 0:21:48.040 --> 0:21:51.280 was getting a pretty favorable price from barstool only at 0:21:51.280 --> 0:21:55.040 around minus three ten. Since then it's moved to minus 0:21:55.119 --> 0:21:58.400 three eighty five. So there are clearly other people patrolling 0:21:58.480 --> 0:22:02.560 these same markets. This is an interesting problem to solve 0:22:02.680 --> 0:22:05.120 because you know, Friedman, I could ask you, like, great, 0:22:05.240 --> 0:22:08.960 if you like Arizona at you know, minus one, you 0:22:09.000 --> 0:22:10.760 think you know the true line for this game should 0:22:10.760 --> 0:22:14.200 be plus one over here by transitive property. If you 0:22:14.320 --> 0:22:17.720 like Arizona plus one, you probably also like Arizona plus 0:22:17.800 --> 0:22:20.159 seven as well, Like you think that's more likely to 0:22:20.280 --> 0:22:22.879 hit than the quote unquote consensus market price. 0:22:23.000 --> 0:22:23.320 Correct. 0:22:24.320 --> 0:22:28.160 Yeah, so Arizona, I guess they're plus one, and so yeah, 0:22:28.200 --> 0:22:31.480 if I like Arizona plus one, I like Arizona plus seven, 0:22:31.720 --> 0:22:34.120 just depending on what the juice is exactly. 0:22:34.320 --> 0:22:37.280 So that is the trickiest question, depending on what the 0:22:37.400 --> 0:22:37.840 juice is. 0:22:38.080 --> 0:22:39.639 And so if I were to put you on the spot, 0:22:39.720 --> 0:22:42.040 which I guess I am right now, if you like 0:22:42.160 --> 0:22:45.280 Arizona plus one at minus one ten, at what price 0:22:45.400 --> 0:22:48.800 would you bet Arizona plus seven? I'm going to stop 0:22:48.880 --> 0:22:51.400 you there, because I think that is honestly a difficult 0:22:51.520 --> 0:22:55.680 question to ask unless you're kind of knee deep in knowing, 0:22:55.840 --> 0:22:58.440 like what the value is of six points, Like we're 0:22:58.440 --> 0:23:00.359 all like, we all know, like a value of point 0:23:00.480 --> 0:23:03.440 maybe half a point and stuff like that. Like, but 0:23:04.359 --> 0:23:07.159 unless like your knee deep in distributions, that may not 0:23:07.280 --> 0:23:10.480 be something you can answer, you know, in five seconds. 0:23:11.320 --> 0:23:14.240 Well, that is absolutely some Well let me think about 0:23:14.280 --> 0:23:19.159 this a little bit, uh, I would say maybe plus sorry, Uh, 0:23:19.400 --> 0:23:23.680 it's okay, So maybe minus two fifty two seventy five. 0:23:25.359 --> 0:23:27.240 Yeah, Thomas gonna take a crack at it. 0:23:29.200 --> 0:23:31.920 Well, plus one at minus one ten is equal to 0:23:31.960 --> 0:23:33.879 plus seven at minus three hundred. 0:23:35.000 --> 0:23:37.040 Yeah, it's I mean, it's about It depends on what 0:23:37.160 --> 0:23:40.440 your view of the distribution of outcomes is in that game. 0:23:40.720 --> 0:23:42.879 And so we all have standard calculators. You know, we 0:23:42.960 --> 0:23:45.480 can kind of look up and kind of make those inferences. 0:23:46.000 --> 0:23:48.399 It's very difficult to do on the fly. If you 0:23:48.560 --> 0:23:52.040 notice that there is a window of opportunity, uh, to 0:23:52.160 --> 0:23:54.119 get those to lock in those good prices and do 0:23:54.240 --> 0:23:54.680 that math. 0:23:54.920 --> 0:23:55.639 We can do it. 0:23:55.720 --> 0:23:58.080 But one of the things we pride ourselves on Betscope 0:23:58.440 --> 0:24:01.720 is having that math integrate under the hood, where if 0:24:01.800 --> 0:24:04.600 you can just put in your original thesis, we will 0:24:04.680 --> 0:24:07.240 do all of that distribution math for you and tell 0:24:07.320 --> 0:24:09.800 you whether or not it is a positive expectation bet 0:24:09.920 --> 0:24:12.359 or not. Now I see here that that price is 0:24:12.440 --> 0:24:16.320 no longer available barstool. It used to be at minus 0:24:16.359 --> 0:24:18.280 three ten and has since moved to three eighty five. 0:24:18.680 --> 0:24:21.480 It's unfortunate that we can't get that price anymore. But 0:24:21.760 --> 0:24:24.440 all the same, we can change our stats accordingly, run 0:24:24.480 --> 0:24:26.800 it through the calculator, and see if there's any additional 0:24:26.840 --> 0:24:30.680 opportunities as of the quick assessment here as a reminder 0:24:30.720 --> 0:24:32.600 of like what I'm looking at when all of these 0:24:32.680 --> 0:24:35.320 dots are here and our games dropped down menu, that 0:24:35.440 --> 0:24:38.360 will tell you how many markets there are of each 0:24:38.920 --> 0:24:42.000 of each price discrepancy type, whether it's low hold, whether 0:24:42.000 --> 0:24:45.360 it's split market, whether or that's arbitrage. As of filming time, 0:24:45.520 --> 0:24:48.760 I don't see anything available for Cardinals Panthers. But we'll 0:24:48.800 --> 0:24:52.040 also notice that we only really only have quarterback props up, 0:24:52.320 --> 0:24:55.440 and so it's not particularly surprising that given that there 0:24:55.440 --> 0:24:59.920 are no prop markets, there aren't potentially many available BETE 0:25:00.119 --> 0:25:04.040 markets with prices creptancy opportunities. So similar to the last game, 0:25:04.480 --> 0:25:06.639 I would check this closer to kickoff as more of 0:25:06.680 --> 0:25:08.760 these markets come online and we can kind of see, 0:25:08.960 --> 0:25:10.719 is there, you know, price movement in all of these 0:25:10.760 --> 0:25:11.600 different areas. 0:25:12.160 --> 0:25:14.680 Yeah, it's it's a game in which both starting running 0:25:14.760 --> 0:25:18.320 backs are dealing with injuries, and so props haven't been 0:25:18.400 --> 0:25:21.800 released for them, and you know, the wide receiver units 0:25:21.840 --> 0:25:25.480 for both teams they're pretty mediocre, and so you know 0:25:25.920 --> 0:25:29.040 there might not be a robust prop market for this game. 0:25:29.480 --> 0:25:31.600 Even as we get closer to kickoff, there will be 0:25:31.680 --> 0:25:33.800 more props released, but you know, we might not have 0:25:33.920 --> 0:25:36.720 the full menu that we otherwise would if these teams 0:25:36.760 --> 0:25:38.080 were actually functional. 0:25:38.760 --> 0:25:41.520 You're not kidding about the mediocrity of the passing offense. 0:25:41.600 --> 0:25:44.199 Is the Massy Peabody unit grade for the passing offense 0:25:44.240 --> 0:25:47.600 for the Cardinals this year, this week or it's on 0:25:47.640 --> 0:25:48.880 a scale of one hundred. 0:25:50.600 --> 0:25:53.760 Yeah, that's amazing, honestly, like surprising to me. 0:25:53.840 --> 0:25:55.679 But how does this number change? Because the spread right 0:25:55.720 --> 0:25:58.199 now isn't one, it's one and a half. How does 0:25:58.280 --> 0:26:00.920 that have if we to change it to one and 0:26:00.920 --> 0:26:03.000 a half. How does that affect your calculations? Does it 0:26:03.080 --> 0:26:04.160 bring up anything for us there? 0:26:04.960 --> 0:26:07.720 I think that just given the lack of markets and 0:26:07.920 --> 0:26:10.320 just like kind of the low maybe liquidity is not 0:26:10.440 --> 0:26:12.560 the right term, but just given the lack of like 0:26:12.680 --> 0:26:15.320 attack vectors, I don't think it's going to change much 0:26:15.440 --> 0:26:18.200 because you know, when you're really looking for opportunities, sometimes 0:26:18.280 --> 0:26:20.840 it's kind of the classic like you can only play 0:26:20.880 --> 0:26:23.560 against once the defense. What the defense gives you. The 0:26:23.640 --> 0:26:25.639 analogy here is if there just aren't a lot of 0:26:25.680 --> 0:26:28.119 markets to get down on. There's probably not going to 0:26:28.160 --> 0:26:30.600 be as much opportunities, so you kind of are limited 0:26:30.680 --> 0:26:33.119 by what the books offer. That's why it behooves you 0:26:33.240 --> 0:26:36.520 to stay patients, to monitor the odds as the week progresses, 0:26:36.920 --> 0:26:39.440 and just monitor tools like these to see, you know, 0:26:39.600 --> 0:26:42.800 when the opportunities arise. You will see it in the 0:26:42.880 --> 0:26:45.920 notifications of whatever opportunities we're surfacing here. It kind of 0:26:45.960 --> 0:26:48.240 alert you to you know, like the at least the 0:26:48.320 --> 0:26:50.560 presence of certain markets that you should be attacking. 0:26:51.560 --> 0:26:53.600 Well, let's see if there's anything better to attack in 0:26:53.680 --> 0:26:56.359 our next game. Up here, we've got the Denver Broncos 0:26:56.480 --> 0:27:00.520 and the Las Vegas Raiders Denver heads to love Vegas 0:27:00.560 --> 0:27:02.920 as two and a half point dogs in this one, 0:27:03.560 --> 0:27:05.560 And Matt, I already know your answer because you have 0:27:05.680 --> 0:27:08.359 been so low on the Raiders all year, and in 0:27:08.440 --> 0:27:10.760 all fairness, it's kind of working out as they do 0:27:10.920 --> 0:27:13.399 sit at zero to three here in this one right now, 0:27:13.480 --> 0:27:16.520 so I can't really poke holes in your theory. But 0:27:16.640 --> 0:27:18.200 that being said, I'm on the opposite side of you 0:27:18.280 --> 0:27:20.800 in this game here you're going with the Broncos. 0:27:21.359 --> 0:27:24.880 Yeah, I have Denver as a slight favorite point two 0:27:25.000 --> 0:27:28.280 five points, I think they should be favored, and so 0:27:28.560 --> 0:27:30.720 at you know, plus two and a half, I'm seeing, 0:27:31.000 --> 0:27:35.119 you know, pretty significant value there. And you know, there 0:27:35.160 --> 0:27:37.320 are a number of I think ways in which you 0:27:37.359 --> 0:27:40.000 could look at this and say I just don't I 0:27:40.160 --> 0:27:42.200 just don't buy it, you know, Like one, you could 0:27:42.200 --> 0:27:45.800 just look at the Raiders record for one, but you 0:27:45.880 --> 0:27:48.960 know we will dive deeper than that. But I also say, 0:27:49.040 --> 0:27:52.119 Derek Carr, it's not that he should never be favored, okay, 0:27:52.359 --> 0:27:54.800 but he's thirteen twenty five and one against the spread 0:27:54.920 --> 0:27:57.359 as a favorite like that clearly has not been a 0:27:57.640 --> 0:28:01.359 historical spot for betting on him. And Russell Wilson twenty 0:28:01.440 --> 0:28:03.959 seven to thirteen and two against the spread as an 0:28:04.080 --> 0:28:07.200 underdog for his career. So we are getting both of 0:28:07.280 --> 0:28:10.280 these guys in kind of their sweet spot. And Divisional 0:28:10.400 --> 0:28:13.720 road underdogs have been especially good in the first month 0:28:13.760 --> 0:28:16.760 of the season historically one hundred and thirty to ninety 0:28:16.840 --> 0:28:20.040 five to eight against the spread, good for a twelve 0:28:20.080 --> 0:28:25.119 point six return on investment for the Divisional Road underdogs. 0:28:26.000 --> 0:28:29.440 And I think this game really comes down to Russell 0:28:29.480 --> 0:28:32.879 Wilson against the Raiders pass defense. The Raiders have no 0:28:33.080 --> 0:28:35.280 offensive edge in this game. But the Broncos have a 0:28:35.359 --> 0:28:37.400 big one and that they have Russell Wilson. And it's 0:28:37.400 --> 0:28:39.320 not as if he's been great this year, but the 0:28:39.400 --> 0:28:41.840 Raiders have been very subpart in pass defense. They rank 0:28:41.920 --> 0:28:44.840 bottom six in both drop back EPA and success rate, 0:28:45.320 --> 0:28:48.360 and that strong edge duo of Max Crosby and Chandler 0:28:48.440 --> 0:28:52.640 Jones has managed just two sacks. Even let me rephrase that, 0:28:52.960 --> 0:28:55.240 even with them, it's not that those two guys have 0:28:55.320 --> 0:28:59.720 two sacks. The entire defense has just two sacks on 0:28:59.800 --> 0:29:02.600 the year. And so they let you know, quarterback Justin 0:29:02.680 --> 0:29:05.320 Herbert walk all over them in week one, they let 0:29:05.440 --> 0:29:08.840 Kyler Murray come back from a twenty to zero halftime deficit. 0:29:08.960 --> 0:29:12.320 In Week two, they let Ryan Tannehill save his jaw 0:29:12.760 --> 0:29:16.800 and maybe the Titan season. In Week three, and they're injured. 0:29:17.240 --> 0:29:20.840 They've already lost number two cornerback Anthony Averett. They might 0:29:20.920 --> 0:29:24.840 be without number three cornerback Nate Hobbs, and even number 0:29:24.880 --> 0:29:28.600 one cornerback Rakya Sin He was on the injury report 0:29:28.680 --> 0:29:31.200 with a knee injury. I bet he plays, but still 0:29:31.440 --> 0:29:33.880 like they are not, They're nowhere close to full health 0:29:34.120 --> 0:29:37.080 at cornerback, safety for Von morg has been out the 0:29:37.120 --> 0:29:39.600 past two weeks with the hip injury, and their main 0:29:39.760 --> 0:29:42.880 off ball coverage linebacker Denzel Perryman, he's been out the 0:29:42.920 --> 0:29:46.000 past two weeks with an ankle injury. No guarantee that 0:29:46.080 --> 0:29:48.960 those guys come back this week. One of them might, 0:29:49.040 --> 0:29:50.720 maybe both of them will, but they probably won't be 0:29:50.720 --> 0:29:54.000 one hundred percent healthy. And so it's just a Raiders 0:29:54.080 --> 0:29:57.400 defense that is very exploitable, and I think we see 0:29:57.480 --> 0:30:01.520 Russell Wilson have his Broncos breakout against that very weak unit. 0:30:02.160 --> 0:30:04.000 This line was a pick them, a pick them in 0:30:04.080 --> 0:30:07.000 the offseason, and maybe the Broncos aren't as good as 0:30:07.040 --> 0:30:10.120 the market anticipated they would be months ago, but that's 0:30:10.240 --> 0:30:13.680 definitely true for the Raiders too. So I still think 0:30:13.720 --> 0:30:17.040 the Broncos should be the slightest of favorites in this game. 0:30:17.360 --> 0:30:19.120 And so at two and a half, I really like 0:30:19.200 --> 0:30:20.760 the value that I'm seeing in the market. 0:30:21.840 --> 0:30:22.760 My problem is just. 0:30:23.840 --> 0:30:24.600 Who have you played? 0:30:24.920 --> 0:30:27.280 And for me with Denver, you've played three teams that 0:30:27.360 --> 0:30:29.080 I do not think highly of at all. You got 0:30:29.280 --> 0:30:33.600 Seattle and you could only score sixteen points against them. Yeah, 0:30:33.640 --> 0:30:35.480 they were the two goal line fumbles and that game 0:30:35.520 --> 0:30:37.479 should have gone differently, like this team should be three 0:30:37.560 --> 0:30:40.520 to zero, but even then you got Houston. After that 0:30:40.640 --> 0:30:43.120 you can only put sixteen points up against that defense. 0:30:43.600 --> 0:30:45.280 And then you got the forty nine Ers. Okay, the 0:30:45.360 --> 0:30:49.440 defense is good, but team overall, you got Jimmy Gett quarterback. 0:30:49.760 --> 0:30:52.000 And it's an eleven to ten game that sets football 0:30:52.080 --> 0:30:56.080 back about seventy years in my mind. The Raiders hung 0:30:56.200 --> 0:30:59.040 tough in there with the Chargers in Week one, and 0:30:59.160 --> 0:31:02.680 then in week two you have the collapse against Arizona, 0:31:03.520 --> 0:31:05.680 and then in week three you have another tough game 0:31:05.720 --> 0:31:08.120 against Tennessee. Honestly, even at oh and three, I think 0:31:08.200 --> 0:31:11.600 this team has put up better performances so far than 0:31:11.640 --> 0:31:14.360 we've seen out of Denver. And I also think it's 0:31:14.440 --> 0:31:18.360 that division rivalry aspect to it, Like it's not something 0:31:18.400 --> 0:31:20.480 that you normally want to bet on, but the Raiders 0:31:20.480 --> 0:31:22.680 always get up for the Denver game and I don't 0:31:22.760 --> 0:31:24.680 see them falling to oh and four in this spot 0:31:25.120 --> 0:31:29.360 against Broncos country Let's Ride and his psychopathic sandwich commercials. 0:31:31.760 --> 0:31:37.960 I will say I did look in bet labs to 0:31:38.240 --> 0:31:40.120 see if there were any trends on teams that were 0:31:40.200 --> 0:31:43.400 oh and three, and there are trends that normally those 0:31:43.480 --> 0:31:48.760 teams actually do very well against the spread. However, the 0:31:48.880 --> 0:31:53.040 teams that are home favorites don't. They're just break even. 0:31:53.520 --> 0:31:56.360 So I don't really think there's I'm not gonna put 0:31:56.400 --> 0:31:58.080 too much in the the oh and three thing. 0:32:00.160 --> 0:32:00.360 For me. 0:32:00.480 --> 0:32:03.200 It's also I think that Darren Waller and DeVante Adams 0:32:03.240 --> 0:32:05.040 are just better than any weapons that they've had to 0:32:05.080 --> 0:32:08.120 deal with so far. Deebo Samuel nullified by the whole 0:32:08.160 --> 0:32:10.680 fact that Jimmy G's your quarterback. But Colin, what are 0:32:10.680 --> 0:32:11.720 you looking at in this game? 0:32:12.160 --> 0:32:14.520 I'm looking at the lack of prop markets for the Raiders. 0:32:14.640 --> 0:32:16.920 Yet again, I feel like a broken record. I mean, 0:32:17.240 --> 0:32:21.360 like that being said, like it's you know, it's always 0:32:21.600 --> 0:32:24.440 like relevant to you know, keep in mind when market's open. 0:32:24.600 --> 0:32:27.240 But in terms of the you know, the markets the 0:32:27.640 --> 0:32:29.800 best scope has identified for things you might want to 0:32:29.840 --> 0:32:33.600 attack and the alternate spreads, Raiders minus three and a 0:32:33.640 --> 0:32:35.960 half has a little bit of price discrepancies here on 0:32:36.040 --> 0:32:39.240 both sides. By extension, if you like, you know Denver 0:32:39.360 --> 0:32:41.600 plus two, you'll also like Denver plus three and a 0:32:41.640 --> 0:32:43.960 half and what it's able to detect. 0:32:43.680 --> 0:32:45.680 With the way that it runs its distributions. 0:32:45.720 --> 0:32:49.000 Under the hood is sometimes people will miss do critical 0:32:49.080 --> 0:32:51.800 mispricing things like make the hook a little bit too cheap. 0:32:52.160 --> 0:32:54.760 I think Denver plus three and a half. Like we 0:32:54.840 --> 0:32:56.920 all know the value of the hook. We don't need to, 0:32:57.280 --> 0:33:00.280 you know, like expound on that a lot. But you 0:33:00.320 --> 0:33:02.240 can see all the other books have kind of priced 0:33:02.240 --> 0:33:04.840 it accordingly or in a high minus one thirty. Sometimes 0:33:04.920 --> 0:33:07.800 in the minus one forty. Barstool only has it at 0:33:07.880 --> 0:33:11.720 minus one thirty. So we're identifying an opportunity where they've 0:33:11.760 --> 0:33:13.080 probably mispriced the hook. 0:33:12.920 --> 0:33:14.680 A little bit, made it a little bit too cheap. 0:33:15.680 --> 0:33:17.800 The payout is a little bit less, but you know, 0:33:17.920 --> 0:33:20.760 if it comes down to maybe it's within a field goal, 0:33:21.040 --> 0:33:22.200 that hook is going to give you. 0:33:22.280 --> 0:33:23.880 The extra range of outcomes that you need. 0:33:24.120 --> 0:33:27.080 So I think there's opportunity to take the hook at 0:33:27.120 --> 0:33:28.960 Barstool because I think it made it a little bit 0:33:29.000 --> 0:33:29.440 too cheap. 0:33:29.520 --> 0:33:31.080 In the alternate spreads market. 0:33:32.120 --> 0:33:36.200 They're offering three and a half minus one thirty right now. Yeah, yeah, 0:33:36.240 --> 0:33:37.320 you got to jump on that number. 0:33:37.320 --> 0:33:40.000 That eight. We have it set up also as well, 0:33:40.120 --> 0:33:41.640 so you can just click on it and it I'll 0:33:41.720 --> 0:33:42.720 take you right to the game. 0:33:42.760 --> 0:33:43.080 Page. 0:33:43.520 --> 0:33:45.840 One of the critical things, and it's really underrated when 0:33:45.840 --> 0:33:48.680 you're trying to get down is as these opportunities are, 0:33:48.840 --> 0:33:51.720 you know, sometimes fleeting only in minutes, the less friction 0:33:51.840 --> 0:33:55.280 that you can reduce between identifying opportunities and just getting 0:33:55.320 --> 0:33:57.760 to the page. We take pains to make sure that 0:33:57.840 --> 0:33:59.840 we are going to get you with all of our 0:34:00.040 --> 0:34:02.840 vetted links to that page and to that exact bet 0:34:03.080 --> 0:34:05.880 as quickly as possible, because at some point this is 0:34:05.960 --> 0:34:10.200 a timing question, not a ability to identify the edge question. 0:34:10.480 --> 0:34:13.239 So you really have to utilize every tool at your 0:34:13.280 --> 0:34:16.719 disposal to make sure that you're capitalizing on these mispricings. 0:34:17.520 --> 0:34:21.600 Man, that's that is a great bet because normally I 0:34:21.680 --> 0:34:23.480 think it doesn't make a lot of sense, because this 0:34:23.600 --> 0:34:25.480 is just sort of like an extended version of like 0:34:25.680 --> 0:34:30.440 buying points, you know, and I think normally it doesn't 0:34:30.560 --> 0:34:33.160 make a lot of sense to buy points. But if 0:34:33.239 --> 0:34:37.040 you're you know, looking at the total market and seeing 0:34:37.160 --> 0:34:41.120 the one area where there has been some mispricing, yeah, 0:34:41.239 --> 0:34:42.759 to be able to get the hook to go from 0:34:42.760 --> 0:34:44.320 two and a half to three and a half, to 0:34:44.400 --> 0:34:46.239 go all the way through the key number to get 0:34:46.239 --> 0:34:48.680 to three and a half, and to have only minus 0:34:48.760 --> 0:34:53.400 one thirty right to pay twenty cents there through the 0:34:53.520 --> 0:34:57.440 key number for that entire point. That is I think 0:34:57.640 --> 0:34:58.400 very good value. 0:34:58.960 --> 0:35:01.320 Absolutely. And this this is where tools like Beths Scope 0:35:01.360 --> 0:35:04.680 really shine. It's automatically figuring that out under the hood 0:35:04.760 --> 0:35:07.960 and surfacing it for you. You can imagine how painstaking 0:35:08.200 --> 0:35:10.560 and laborious it would be to evaluate all those key 0:35:10.640 --> 0:35:12.920 numbers on the fly, refresh every minute and kind of 0:35:12.960 --> 0:35:15.880 do that math yourself. This is this should be the 0:35:15.920 --> 0:35:19.120 domain of a tool to identify places where they've mispriced 0:35:19.160 --> 0:35:21.440 the hook and just directing towards it as soon as possible. 0:35:22.719 --> 0:35:24.759 Now, the next game that you've got up here, Matt, 0:35:24.880 --> 0:35:27.520 you are looking at the Buccaneers versus the Chiefs. The 0:35:27.640 --> 0:35:31.759 Bucks getting two points, that's what you're looking at. Here, 0:35:31.760 --> 0:35:32.520 you're looking at bus two. 0:35:32.520 --> 0:35:35.000 I think this numbers might move. This is moved. 0:35:35.440 --> 0:35:38.479 It's now Buccaneers favored by one. Yeah. 0:35:39.400 --> 0:35:40.880 Yeah, so like it? 0:35:42.000 --> 0:35:46.520 No, I'm I mean, if anything, I so let me 0:35:46.560 --> 0:35:50.520 see here. If anything, I now like Kansas City a 0:35:50.600 --> 0:35:53.360 little bit, but we're all in that realm of like 0:35:53.560 --> 0:35:57.400 pick them. I originally had this when I was projecting 0:35:57.440 --> 0:36:00.840 it as a pick them, and I first bet on 0:36:00.960 --> 0:36:04.239 this was Tampa Bay plus three when the early line 0:36:04.360 --> 0:36:08.360 was released, and that has moved down obviously. Now I 0:36:08.480 --> 0:36:14.880 have Kansas City favored by point five and and so 0:36:15.040 --> 0:36:17.960 I'm showing like one and a half points of value. 0:36:18.120 --> 0:36:22.800 But given where we are in the market, I'm probably 0:36:23.080 --> 0:36:25.960 honestly not betting this at this point because I, you know, 0:36:26.120 --> 0:36:28.919 like we're within the realm of it's like it's past 0:36:29.000 --> 0:36:29.920 my limits, you know. 0:36:31.480 --> 0:36:34.839 I but you talked about now maybe like Kansas City 0:36:34.960 --> 0:36:38.080 a little bit. For me, I'm still worried about these 0:36:38.120 --> 0:36:41.040 in this injury front for the for the Bucks right now. 0:36:41.560 --> 0:36:43.600 They they've still got a lot of guys banged up 0:36:43.600 --> 0:36:45.319 that are supposed to be coming back for this game. 0:36:45.360 --> 0:36:46.680 But do you think the Brady's gonna have his full 0:36:46.680 --> 0:36:47.520 compliment of weapons? 0:36:48.480 --> 0:36:53.000 Not the full compliment, But you know, Mike Evans is returning. 0:36:53.160 --> 0:36:56.360 It looks like Julio Jones is going to play. Russell 0:36:56.400 --> 0:36:59.600 Gage has been playing through his hamstring injury, so like, 0:36:59.640 --> 0:37:02.359 I don't think we should expect him not to play. 0:37:02.560 --> 0:37:07.000 Chris Godwin, who knows left tackle Donovan Smith, We really 0:37:07.080 --> 0:37:09.560 don't know, but he is starting to get some of 0:37:09.640 --> 0:37:13.160 his players back, So I think that in part is 0:37:13.239 --> 0:37:16.000 why the line has moved. Also, like I will say, 0:37:16.360 --> 0:37:22.600 I don't know about the the venue situation for Tampa Bay, 0:37:23.080 --> 0:37:25.960 Like I don't know if the market was expecting. I 0:37:26.200 --> 0:37:28.479 would just say it's weird to me that the line 0:37:28.520 --> 0:37:31.719 has moved in this direction with the knowledge that the 0:37:31.800 --> 0:37:36.520 Buccaneers might not be playing this game at home, unless 0:37:36.560 --> 0:37:39.240 there actually has been clarification that they will be playing 0:37:39.280 --> 0:37:39.879 in Tampa Bay. 0:37:41.719 --> 0:37:43.799 As far as I know, I saw. I can look 0:37:43.840 --> 0:37:47.239 it up again, but I definitely saw a notification that 0:37:47.280 --> 0:37:48.799 they're going to play this game in Tampa Bay. 0:37:49.040 --> 0:37:52.279 Okay, So I think that explains then at least a 0:37:52.360 --> 0:37:56.120 part of this line move. But yeah, like I now, 0:37:56.520 --> 0:37:59.480 at Tampa Bay minus one, I do see some value 0:37:59.560 --> 0:38:03.200 on Camp the City. Again, I don't think that's anything 0:38:03.320 --> 0:38:06.000 I would be betting at this point, but you know, 0:38:06.200 --> 0:38:09.920 maybe callin with Betscope is able to find bets that 0:38:10.040 --> 0:38:13.359 have even more value on Kansas City, and that would 0:38:13.400 --> 0:38:15.120 be a way to navigate the market. 0:38:15.760 --> 0:38:18.800 Indeed, Colin, I'm actually going to flip it on you, 0:38:18.920 --> 0:38:21.200 so I know you're asking about the spreads the whole time, 0:38:21.640 --> 0:38:23.640 but one of the ways that I also use bet 0:38:23.719 --> 0:38:26.760 scope is actually not to start with my investment thesis first, 0:38:27.080 --> 0:38:30.880 but to identify the markets with the biggest discrepancies and 0:38:31.040 --> 0:38:34.200 see if there's a reason to essentially not bet them. So, 0:38:34.640 --> 0:38:36.360 I know we've been talking about the size of the 0:38:36.400 --> 0:38:38.400 whole time, but let me flip it on you and 0:38:38.520 --> 0:38:41.080 just say, like, do you either of you have opinions 0:38:41.160 --> 0:38:41.360 on the. 0:38:41.400 --> 0:38:42.399 Totals either way? 0:38:42.880 --> 0:38:46.080 I asked because we scroll through in these alternate totals 0:38:46.160 --> 0:38:48.879 market and we can see two books here points bet 0:38:48.960 --> 0:38:51.320 and FanDuel that are on the verge of a straight 0:38:51.400 --> 0:38:55.160 up arbitrage situation where you could bet both sides of 0:38:55.239 --> 0:38:57.600 these things if you just feel like fun and basically 0:38:57.719 --> 0:39:01.520 guarantee a zero percent return. Usually when that's the case, 0:39:01.640 --> 0:39:06.239 then if we have even the slightest inclination of directionally 0:39:06.400 --> 0:39:08.279 do we think the total is going to go over 0:39:08.400 --> 0:39:11.480 or under? We can capitalize on one of these And 0:39:11.719 --> 0:39:14.400 I looking at it, these are so far apart on 0:39:14.760 --> 0:39:17.800 either side of it. I'm indifferent on which side we have. 0:39:18.400 --> 0:39:20.920 But even if we have the slightest bit of intuition 0:39:21.200 --> 0:39:23.600 on the totals, this is a market that we should 0:39:23.600 --> 0:39:27.080 be targeting because the synthetic cold is essentially zero, and 0:39:27.200 --> 0:39:30.319 so once you're betting into a zero hold market, you're 0:39:30.440 --> 0:39:34.160 essentially free rolling it over the long term. So either 0:39:34.160 --> 0:39:36.400 of you have any opinions on the totals. I do. 0:39:36.800 --> 0:39:40.040 I have a position on under forty seven. The line 0:39:40.120 --> 0:39:42.000 is now forty five and a half, but I haven't 0:39:42.040 --> 0:39:45.759 projected at forty three point seven, so I still think 0:39:45.800 --> 0:39:48.360 that there's pretty decent value to the under. And I 0:39:48.440 --> 0:39:50.759 mean the thesis is these teams are going to run, 0:39:51.239 --> 0:39:55.160 you know, I mean the Buccaneers they have been a 0:39:55.400 --> 0:39:59.360 run heavy team and the and then when they have 0:39:59.560 --> 0:40:01.080 been trying to throw, they haven't been doing it all 0:40:01.120 --> 0:40:03.800 that efficiently. And then on the other side you have 0:40:03.960 --> 0:40:07.960 Kansas City, which is running more than they have previously. 0:40:08.080 --> 0:40:10.480 They don't have the explosive pass offense that they used 0:40:10.480 --> 0:40:12.840 to have, and they're going against the secondary that is 0:40:13.120 --> 0:40:15.439 probably the best in the league, if not the best, 0:40:15.600 --> 0:40:19.680 certainly top three. So this feels like a smash spot 0:40:19.760 --> 0:40:20.279 for the under. 0:40:21.239 --> 0:40:21.759 Absolutely. 0:40:21.760 --> 0:40:24.399 I mean, that's a perfectly good investment thesis right there. 0:40:24.800 --> 0:40:27.080 As you can see what we did with bet scope 0:40:27.400 --> 0:40:29.839 is we can punch in your projected total of forty 0:40:29.880 --> 0:40:32.719 three point seven, run it see how that affects all 0:40:32.800 --> 0:40:36.000 the other props and all the other markets, and updates 0:40:36.040 --> 0:40:38.880 the numbers accordingly, and we have our spit out recommended 0:40:38.960 --> 0:40:40.040 bet here. 0:40:40.400 --> 0:40:44.719 If you like under forty three three point seven, and 0:40:44.800 --> 0:40:45.880 by extension. 0:40:45.520 --> 0:40:47.440 You know, like you know you like the under on 0:40:47.600 --> 0:40:50.279 forty six and a half, you also like the under 0:40:50.360 --> 0:40:52.279 of thirty eight and a half, taking on a little 0:40:52.280 --> 0:40:54.640 bit more risk for a little bit more payout. As 0:40:54.719 --> 0:40:58.120 we saw in that previous prop tool comparison, FanDuel has 0:40:58.160 --> 0:41:01.040 the under thirty eight and a half with a pretty 0:41:01.120 --> 0:41:04.759 significantly higher payout than the rest of market consensus. If 0:41:04.800 --> 0:41:06.920 I want to target the under, I feel like this 0:41:07.160 --> 0:41:10.160 line at this payout at FanDuel is the best way 0:41:10.200 --> 0:41:13.640 to target it. And again that's where things like distribution 0:41:13.880 --> 0:41:16.080 shine and all of the math. We have the under 0:41:16.120 --> 0:41:18.600 the hood that basically does that full range of outcomes 0:41:18.640 --> 0:41:21.759 for you. We will surface those opportunities where if you 0:41:21.880 --> 0:41:24.360 like the under in general, let's figure out the exact 0:41:24.440 --> 0:41:27.560 totals and the exact payouts that will maximize your return 0:41:27.920 --> 0:41:29.879 and just give you kind of a pre selective sort 0:41:30.040 --> 0:41:32.120 order of exactly where you should be going to get 0:41:32.160 --> 0:41:32.680 that down. 0:41:33.280 --> 0:41:36.839 Yeah, thirty eight and a half. That is interesting. I mean, 0:41:37.000 --> 0:41:40.560 it's not all that far from forty three point seven, 0:41:40.760 --> 0:41:43.759 and you're still you're still with the key number of 0:41:43.880 --> 0:41:47.480 thirty eight there, So I actually, I do, I do 0:41:47.640 --> 0:41:50.160 find that one interesting, especially you said plus two fifty 0:41:50.520 --> 0:41:51.560 that's pretty significant. 0:41:52.200 --> 0:41:55.840 Two point fifty is large, even just comparing to other books. 0:41:55.920 --> 0:41:56.560 It is large. 0:41:56.880 --> 0:41:59.320 That is like a spot where you maybe want to 0:41:59.320 --> 0:42:01.399 take on a little bit more risk because the higher 0:42:01.440 --> 0:42:02.800 payout is in fact worth it. 0:42:03.200 --> 0:42:05.960 Yeah, now, how. 0:42:05.920 --> 0:42:07.880 About one more game here for you, Matt. We've got 0:42:07.920 --> 0:42:10.480 the forty nine Ers and the Rams on Monday Night Football, 0:42:10.520 --> 0:42:13.759 because for some reason, our primetime matches continue to be 0:42:13.840 --> 0:42:16.640 the NFL wanting us to suffer. We got the forty 0:42:16.680 --> 0:42:18.600 nine ers last week, we get them again this week. 0:42:18.760 --> 0:42:21.040 The Rams are getting two and a half points in 0:42:21.160 --> 0:42:21.840 Santa Clara. 0:42:22.000 --> 0:42:22.120 Here. 0:42:23.600 --> 0:42:26.920 I don't care about the historical trend of the forty 0:42:27.000 --> 0:42:30.000 nine ers having the Rams number. I'm all aboard the 0:42:30.080 --> 0:42:32.800 Los Angeles train in this one with the two and 0:42:32.840 --> 0:42:33.919 a half. Where are you going? 0:42:34.560 --> 0:42:37.840 Yeah? So looking now, I did bet this first to 0:42:37.920 --> 0:42:40.279 two and a half. I believe it's now one and 0:42:40.360 --> 0:42:44.879 a half across the market and that I would still 0:42:44.920 --> 0:42:47.120 bet it at one and a half, but that is 0:42:48.239 --> 0:42:53.560 that is the limit I have it projected for a picklem, 0:42:54.280 --> 0:42:56.960 so I think one and a half is probably right 0:42:57.000 --> 0:42:59.600 there at the limit. You look at some of the 0:42:59.719 --> 0:43:02.800 historic you had mentioned, Yeah, there is the historical trend 0:43:03.040 --> 0:43:07.800 of Kyle Shanahan just absolutely owning Sean McVay eight and 0:43:07.880 --> 0:43:12.160 three against the spread. It includes the postseason, but you 0:43:12.239 --> 0:43:14.640 know McVeigh has been good in primetime, fifteen ten and 0:43:14.680 --> 0:43:17.080 one against the spread in primetime, good on the road, 0:43:17.560 --> 0:43:20.080 twenty four and eighteen on the road as a road dog, 0:43:20.320 --> 0:43:23.239 eight and three against the spread, and eighteen twelve and 0:43:23.280 --> 0:43:26.399 one against the spread in division. And then Kyle Shanahan, Tom, 0:43:26.680 --> 0:43:29.120 you know exactly what I'm going to say. Shanahan as 0:43:29.160 --> 0:43:32.399 a home favorite is absolutely someone to bet against at home. 0:43:32.760 --> 0:43:36.440 He's fifteen twenty two and one against the spread as 0:43:36.480 --> 0:43:39.200 a favorite, seventeen twenty six and one against the spread, 0:43:39.239 --> 0:43:43.120 and as a home favorite seven fifteen and one against 0:43:43.160 --> 0:43:47.320 the spread on the money line, eleven eleven and twelve 0:43:47.520 --> 0:43:49.600 as a home favorite, which is good for a fifty 0:43:49.800 --> 0:43:55.160 percent return on investment per per bet Labs. And for me, 0:43:55.520 --> 0:43:57.840 this game comes down in the x's and o's. It 0:43:57.920 --> 0:44:00.280 comes down to the Rams defensive line against the forty 0:44:00.360 --> 0:44:02.960 nine Ers offensive line. That offensive line is in a 0:44:03.040 --> 0:44:06.280 really bad spot. Left tackle Trent Williams is almost certainly 0:44:06.400 --> 0:44:10.080 out for the game with an ankle injury. Center Daniel 0:44:10.200 --> 0:44:12.960 Brun's Goal is yet to play this year with a 0:44:13.000 --> 0:44:16.040 hamstring injury. He didn't even practice last week, so I 0:44:16.160 --> 0:44:19.719 don't think he's close to suiting up. So with the 0:44:19.800 --> 0:44:22.720 forty nine Ers missing their two most important offensive linemen, 0:44:23.400 --> 0:44:25.040 I think that puts him in a really bad spot 0:44:25.160 --> 0:44:29.600 against defensive tackle Aaron Donald, who I think could just destroy. 0:44:29.680 --> 0:44:31.640 And the forty nine Ers offense is built around their 0:44:31.680 --> 0:44:33.800 running game, right they're number three in the league with 0:44:33.920 --> 0:44:36.759 a fifty three point four percent rush rate, but the 0:44:36.840 --> 0:44:39.680 Rams defense is number one in rush EPA like, I 0:44:39.719 --> 0:44:41.560 don't think the forty nine Ers are going to be 0:44:41.640 --> 0:44:43.719 able to run the way that they want to run 0:44:44.200 --> 0:44:47.319 against the Rams front, and they could struggle in pass 0:44:47.440 --> 0:44:52.279 protection too without their two top offensive linemen. So given 0:44:52.360 --> 0:44:54.239 how good he is as a blocker, we might see 0:44:54.520 --> 0:44:56.560 tight end George Kittle stay in a little bit more 0:44:56.640 --> 0:44:59.279 to pass protect, which, like in theory, that's good, but 0:44:59.480 --> 0:45:02.080 in reality, that means one of your best receivers isn't 0:45:02.120 --> 0:45:04.640 out there running routes, and that's a bad thing overall. 0:45:04.800 --> 0:45:07.359 So I think the Rams have a significant edge over 0:45:07.400 --> 0:45:09.400 the forty nine ers in the trench matchup. We have 0:45:09.520 --> 0:45:12.879 them as the number two defensive line. The offensive line 0:45:12.920 --> 0:45:16.279 for the forty nine Ers ranked number eighteen. So if 0:45:16.280 --> 0:45:18.600 the forty nine Ers can't run and if they struggle 0:45:18.680 --> 0:45:22.200 to pass protect for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, they have basically 0:45:22.719 --> 0:45:25.520 nothing going for them on offense. And we saw what 0:45:25.600 --> 0:45:27.680 that looked like last week, right when they scored just 0:45:27.719 --> 0:45:30.719 ten points against the Broncos on Sunday Night Football. This 0:45:30.960 --> 0:45:34.560 line was Rams point five in the offseason, and I 0:45:34.800 --> 0:45:37.680 still think that if they shouldn't be favored at worse, 0:45:37.840 --> 0:45:39.200 this should be a pick them. I don't think we've 0:45:39.200 --> 0:45:41.680 seen enough in the past three weeks to justify the 0:45:41.840 --> 0:45:44.239 move from point five to plus two and a half. 0:45:45.400 --> 0:45:47.440 I'm fully with you on this one. I am all 0:45:47.520 --> 0:45:50.360 boy the Rams train, as I said, But Colin, I 0:45:50.440 --> 0:45:52.520 know there aren't too many props out for this one 0:45:52.719 --> 0:45:54.399 just yet. But is there any way that you're looking 0:45:54.480 --> 0:45:55.480 at to attack this game? 0:45:56.239 --> 0:45:58.080 I mean, that's why I always run it through the 0:45:58.160 --> 0:46:01.120 simulation engine first and then see there's any opportunities. 0:46:01.360 --> 0:46:02.680 I'm guessing it won't find. 0:46:02.880 --> 0:46:05.640 Like I mean, given where the line is at now, 0:46:06.080 --> 0:46:09.400 it probably won't identify any slam dunk markets to attack. 0:46:10.320 --> 0:46:13.440 As stated previously, that's just because there aren't many markets 0:46:13.480 --> 0:46:16.360 available in general, and so this is going to be 0:46:16.440 --> 0:46:18.839 one where as we get closer to Sunday night, as 0:46:18.960 --> 0:46:21.880 more markets come online, I'm going to be checking that 0:46:22.160 --> 0:46:24.000 far more often to see if there's any kind of 0:46:24.080 --> 0:46:26.680 misalignment in any of the prices where I can get 0:46:26.760 --> 0:46:28.040 down on exactly. 0:46:27.800 --> 0:46:29.280 Everything that you've just described. 0:46:30.360 --> 0:46:33.800 One of the other virtues that are worthwhile is sometimes 0:46:33.840 --> 0:46:35.880 it is worth it to be a little bit more patient, 0:46:36.320 --> 0:46:39.080 and if you have a thesis, you don't need to 0:46:39.160 --> 0:46:42.479 bet it immediately. It often behooves you to wait until 0:46:42.600 --> 0:46:45.600 more markets open up and you can identify those mispricings. 0:46:45.680 --> 0:46:48.279 So don't feel like you have to be compelled to 0:46:48.360 --> 0:46:51.360 bet it immediately. You can benefit from a little bit 0:46:51.440 --> 0:46:53.720 of patients and wait for some of these additional markets 0:46:53.760 --> 0:46:55.719 to come online, kind of like a snake in the 0:46:55.800 --> 0:46:57.040 grass waiting to stray. 0:46:58.080 --> 0:47:02.239 I'm going to not push back to what Colin just said, 0:47:02.320 --> 0:47:05.919 but like add to it, like supplement it to where 0:47:06.000 --> 0:47:08.080 I think there can be sort of the tiered approach 0:47:08.640 --> 0:47:11.960 where the markets that like, the best time to bet 0:47:12.040 --> 0:47:15.560 a market, generally speaking is when it first comes open, 0:47:15.760 --> 0:47:19.040 like that is when it will be the softest, and so, uh, 0:47:19.480 --> 0:47:23.480 if you like betting on spread total money line, I 0:47:23.560 --> 0:47:27.400 think it's earlier, Like earlier is better for betting on 0:47:27.560 --> 0:47:30.799 that if you if you actually have an edge there, 0:47:31.120 --> 0:47:35.840 and then as other markets come open, you can continue 0:47:35.960 --> 0:47:39.960 to employ your thesis in attacking the other markets. So 0:47:40.480 --> 0:47:42.759 and I will say, you know, like if you this 0:47:42.920 --> 0:47:45.200 is sort of like getting into like the practicality of 0:47:45.400 --> 0:47:49.800 like how you sports bet. If you attack only the 0:47:50.000 --> 0:47:54.440 alternative markets, like that will flag pretty quickly to a 0:47:54.480 --> 0:47:58.080 sports book that like not necessarily that you are sharp, 0:47:58.560 --> 0:48:01.239 but that like you are not square, that like you 0:48:01.400 --> 0:48:05.919 are looking at things outside of what the ordinary better 0:48:06.280 --> 0:48:09.279 looks at, and so like you will need to have 0:48:09.719 --> 0:48:13.239 some spreads and totals and money lines in there. It 0:48:13.320 --> 0:48:17.480 can't be all props and all alternate lines, or they 0:48:17.600 --> 0:48:20.680 might limit you or just shut you down entirely. So 0:48:21.160 --> 0:48:24.360 I think it's probably like the tiered approach of betting 0:48:24.520 --> 0:48:28.520 throughout the week as the value presents itself in various markets. 0:48:29.080 --> 0:48:32.080 There's the other factor there with betting the market early, 0:48:32.239 --> 0:48:35.280 as it's wing into the softest you get the advantage 0:48:35.320 --> 0:48:37.600 of the softest market, but the disadvantage of the least 0:48:37.600 --> 0:48:41.040 amount of information. Right there's anything that can happen between 0:48:41.600 --> 0:48:45.000 Sunday night and the next week, Guys getting hurt in practice, 0:48:45.080 --> 0:48:47.640 injury reports coming out from guys that we are waiting on, 0:48:47.719 --> 0:48:50.640 and obviously, you know, if you're waiting for the Thursday 0:48:50.680 --> 0:48:53.080 night game with Tua and it looks like he just 0:48:53.160 --> 0:48:55.480 left the game with the concussion, you're not gonna go 0:48:55.560 --> 0:48:57.680 ahead and bet that Thursday night line before you get 0:48:57.719 --> 0:49:01.200 that information. But with eyes and things that can happen 0:49:01.320 --> 0:49:03.080 over the course of the week, it is that drawback 0:49:03.080 --> 0:49:04.560 and you have to make that balance where you want 0:49:04.600 --> 0:49:04.800 to do it. 0:49:06.000 --> 0:49:10.759 Yeah, I mean, I think I think that's right. I 0:49:11.080 --> 0:49:14.600 would say that, Yeah, the information, there's like the wide 0:49:14.719 --> 0:49:18.360 range right to where if there's not much information that 0:49:18.480 --> 0:49:21.400 you are waiting on for a game, then it probably 0:49:21.480 --> 0:49:24.080 makes sense to bet it early. If there is a 0:49:24.160 --> 0:49:27.440 lot of information that you're waiting on, you still might 0:49:27.560 --> 0:49:30.080 be able to bet it early, but you might still 0:49:30.120 --> 0:49:32.120 want to think about the way in which you're doing 0:49:32.200 --> 0:49:36.400 it to try to leverage the uncertainty that is in 0:49:36.520 --> 0:49:37.080 that market. 0:49:37.840 --> 0:49:40.680 Indeed, and also the big thing that has changed from 0:49:40.719 --> 0:49:43.360 betting over the last two years to betting now. Of course, 0:49:43.920 --> 0:49:45.520 the last two years it was really hard to bet 0:49:45.560 --> 0:49:48.160 early because you never knew what was going to happen 0:49:48.200 --> 0:49:50.759 on Saturday night when it came to guys being out 0:49:50.800 --> 0:49:53.440 with the rona for the week. And that's finally behind this. 0:49:53.560 --> 0:49:55.439 Now I do not miss those betting days. 0:49:55.800 --> 0:49:59.160 Yeah, absolutely, Now it just gets marked as illness YEP, 0:50:00.000 --> 0:50:00.640 injury report. 0:50:00.800 --> 0:50:02.800 Yeah all right, but that is going to do it 0:50:02.920 --> 0:50:05.400 for us here, guys, Colin, thank you so much for 0:50:05.520 --> 0:50:07.640 coming on today one more time. For everybody. Where can 0:50:07.640 --> 0:50:09.200 they find you in the great work that you're doing 0:50:09.239 --> 0:50:10.200 around the internet. 0:50:10.440 --> 0:50:12.799 You can find you can find me on Twitter at 0:50:13.120 --> 0:50:16.359 the handle of adj baseline. And then if you want 0:50:16.400 --> 0:50:18.560 to take a look at the tool yourself, which is 0:50:18.640 --> 0:50:21.719 currently free to use, you can go to betscope dot 0:50:21.840 --> 0:50:25.680 io and I run all of your thess and through 0:50:25.719 --> 0:50:28.920 our recommendation engine to surface the best markets. 0:50:28.640 --> 0:50:30.799 That you should be attacking for all of your best. 0:50:31.680 --> 0:50:34.120 Thank you once again so much for coming on today. 0:50:34.160 --> 0:50:37.239 The Betscope tool was very fascinating. I am excited to 0:50:37.280 --> 0:50:40.000 put it to good use in my betting, but for now, 0:50:40.120 --> 0:50:43.200 for Colin, Matt and myself, Tom, that is going to 0:50:43.280 --> 0:50:45.839 do it for us. Best of luck this weekend, guys, 0:50:45.920 --> 0:50:48.959 don't forget. If you want to bet, go to BETMGM 0:50:49.120 --> 0:50:51.480 dot com, sign up for an account today. Use the 0:50:51.520 --> 0:50:53.799 promo code Betting Pros when you sign up and you'll 0:50:53.800 --> 0:50:56.919 get a one thousand dollars risk free bet. And once again, 0:50:57.040 --> 0:51:01.360 thanks and congratulations to Matthew Derek on winning our signed 0:51:01.400 --> 0:51:04.600 Joe mix in Jersey. That's gonna do it for us, folks, 0:51:04.640 --> 0:51:06.520 and we will see you next episode. 0:51:07.920 --> 0:51:08.640 H m 0:51:12.320 --> 0:51:18.840 Hm hm