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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.

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Speaker 1: It is NFL Week four and we are getting ready

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Speaker 1: for the weekends late, which means it is time for

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Speaker 1: us to break down some of our favorite games. Joining

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Speaker 1: me to do just that as always none other than

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Speaker 1: Matt f the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman, and today are

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Speaker 1: very special guest, Colin Davey of bet Scope is going

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Speaker 1: to be walking us through some fantastic tools that can

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Speaker 1: help you guys when it comes to making your picks. Colin,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us today. How are

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Speaker 1: you doing?

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Speaker 2: I feel like I got to give a pre apology

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Speaker 2: because the last time Freeman and I were on a

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Speaker 2: mic together, we're doing golf stuff. So just on a

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Speaker 2: sheer habit, I may be getting giving my opinions on

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Speaker 2: Headecki Maasa Yama, but that is from a distant life

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Speaker 2: to say.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that's a long time ago. What was what

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Speaker 3: was the metric? It was adjusted?

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Speaker 4: What's the metrics? Something like adjusted strokes?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, justice strokes gained.

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Speaker 2: It was not strokes games. Remember I didn't like strokes

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Speaker 2: game back.

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Speaker 3: Right, But it was adjusted. It was adjusted strokes something.

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Speaker 3: But maybe it's a Justice Strow anyway. Yeah, the fut right, yes, yeah,

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Speaker 3: the Fantasy Labs days, those were those were good days.

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Speaker 3: And uh yeah, I mean you were a monster with

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Speaker 3: the projections and so Tom, I don't know if you

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Speaker 3: know this about Colin and calling correct me where I'm wrong.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

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Speaker 3: He twice won the Sloan mi I t hackethon and

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Speaker 3: he won on Jeopardy.

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Speaker 1: Wow. I did know that about Jeopardy as a matter

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Speaker 1: of fact.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, but the Sloan Hackathon thing, and you were the

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Speaker 3: original winner of the hackathon right.

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Speaker 2: It was the first two years that they did the competition.

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Speaker 2: I won both of them. Decided I have nothing left

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Speaker 2: to prove, hung my hat up. Call me when they

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Speaker 2: do the Tournament of Champions. I am out of the

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Speaker 2: hackathon game for the time being.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that is it's a real like dunk on everyone

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Speaker 3: to win the second year and then just be like,

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Speaker 3: you know what, I gotta retire. It's not fair to

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Speaker 3: all of the other merror mortals out there for me

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Speaker 3: to do this three times in a row.

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Speaker 4: Hey, your words, not mine.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I can very much relate to this. With the

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Speaker 1: town third grade spelling be back in my hometown, I

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Speaker 1: know exactly where you're coming from here.

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Speaker 3: All right, guys, we have a lot.

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Speaker 1: To get to today, but before we do that real quick,

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Speaker 1: I just want to announce the winner of the autograph

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Speaker 1: Joe Mixon jersey that we have for you courtesy of

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Speaker 1: Pristineauction dot Com is none other than Matthew Dikett. Please

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Speaker 1: get in touch with our customer support agents at info

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Speaker 1: at Bettingpros dot com with your mailing address and proof

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Speaker 1: of your subscription to the Betting Pros YouTube channel, and

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Speaker 1: we will get that jersey shipped out to you post taste.

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Speaker 1: Maybe not for this weekend, but hey, if you're quick enough,

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Speaker 1: maybe you have it for well next week because the

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Speaker 1: Dolphins and the Bengals play each other well before this

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Speaker 1: podcast is actually going new air. But again, the winner

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Speaker 1: is Matthew Dikett. Congrats, and now guys, let's get into

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Speaker 1: it focusing on some of these weekend games.

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Speaker 4: Matt, We're going to start off basically here.

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Speaker 1: The plan is we're going to talk about your lines,

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Speaker 1: and then Colin is gonna come through and completely berate

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Speaker 1: you using his tools to find a better bet. That

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Speaker 1: sound like a plan to.

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Speaker 4: You, Colin, That sounds like a plan to me. Well,

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Speaker 4: the first.

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Speaker 1: Game that you got up. Okay, Matt, you want a word.

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Speaker 3: In edgewise now, no, just it's already like old times.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, a lot of blasts from the past for you

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Speaker 1: on the last couple episodes here, But your line in

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Speaker 1: this game, we're going Bears at Giants. You've got three

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Speaker 1: and a half here, and it looks like that is

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Speaker 1: still indeed pretty much the number. The Bears have moved

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Speaker 1: to three and even two and a half in some spots.

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Speaker 1: Do you still like them without the hook?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? So when I wrote this up, it was three

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Speaker 3: and a half consensus. Now I'm looking at the betting

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Speaker 3: pros odds page, seems to be around three. I have

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Speaker 3: this projected out at one and a half, So I

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Speaker 3: still think that there's value landing on three. Obviously would

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Speaker 3: have liked to have been able to get it closer

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Speaker 3: to kickoff at three and a half. But I still

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Speaker 3: have value on this. And you know, some of it

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Speaker 3: is that I don't think the Bears are quite as

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Speaker 3: bad as they've looked, and I do think the Giants

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Speaker 3: are worse than they've looked. Specifically, like you look at

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Speaker 3: some of the trends. I mean, Daniel Jones one and

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Speaker 3: four against the spread as a home favorite, Like, he's

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Speaker 3: just that is not the spot in which you want

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Speaker 3: to bet on him as a road dog. Love Daniel

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Speaker 3: Jones as a home favorite. He's absolutely horrible. And I

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Speaker 3: think a lot of this game for me comes down

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Speaker 3: to the Bears rush offense against the Giants rush defense.

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Speaker 3: So David Montgomery number one running back for the Bears,

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Speaker 3: I honestly don't even care if he plays. There's a

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Speaker 3: chance that he plays, but probably won't even so it

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Speaker 3: doesn't matter because his backup Khalil Herbert has been fantastic

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Speaker 3: playing and places in Montgomery. You know, had twenty carries,

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Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty seven yards, two touchdowns last week.

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Speaker 3: Last year in four games as to fill in, he

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Speaker 3: had three hundred and forty four yards rushing in a

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Speaker 3: touchdown on seventy eight carries. And then quarterback Justin Fields

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Speaker 3: is always a rushing threat, has twenty seven carries this year.

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Speaker 3: The Bears are top twelve and like all the different

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Speaker 3: key rushing efficiency metrics that you might look at, you know,

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Speaker 3: epa success rate, and then the Giants defense is outside

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Speaker 3: the top twenty in those metrics, and there's a pretty

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Speaker 3: good chance they're going to be without defensive lineman Leonard

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Speaker 3: Williams and also edge jahad Ward. And so I think

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Speaker 3: the Bears control the game for a chunk of it

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Speaker 3: with their running attack, and I think that keeps this close.

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Speaker 1: I want to know the total, not on the score,

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Speaker 1: which frankly you could set it too, and I might

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Speaker 1: take the under in this game, But total on pass

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Speaker 1: is thrown here because on the one hand, you have

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Speaker 1: Justin Fields, who's thrown the ball forty five times through

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Speaker 1: three games this season. Joe Flackel, I'm pretty sure is

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Speaker 1: averaging more throws than he than he has all year.

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Speaker 1: But then on the other side, with the Giant, all

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Speaker 1: of your receivers are either injured or Kenny Galladay, and

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Speaker 1: that might even be worse. It's a battle of two

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Speaker 1: completely stoppable run defenses. You talked about the Giants there

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Speaker 1: twenty eighth and Dboa the Bears are twenty second. But Colin,

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Speaker 1: what are you thinking here? Let's bring up bet scope

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Speaker 1: and talk about what you're seeing in this game.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely so to give a little bit of context of

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Speaker 2: what we're looking here at here. Bet Scope is basically

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Speaker 2: a series of betting tools designed to help you match

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Speaker 2: your beliefs and what you think will happen with the

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Speaker 2: game with the most appropriate market that you should be

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Speaker 2: getting your money down. So over here we have a

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Speaker 2: combination on screen where this is basically of all a

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Speaker 2: different markets currently available. As we get closer to game time,

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Speaker 2: we expect more props to be available around things like

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Speaker 2: bears and giants, running backs, giants wide receivers as they

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Speaker 2: come in. But we can kind of take a look

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Speaker 2: at all the different price is at all the different

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Speaker 2: markets that we're looking at with a kind of.

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Speaker 4: Easy click of the button.

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Speaker 2: Now, one of the other things that we can do

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Speaker 2: with this is basically try to discover all of the

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Speaker 2: markets that match your betting thesis. And so, Freedman, what

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Speaker 2: I'd like to go back to you is like, let's

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Speaker 2: explore your I guess quote unquote investment thesis for lack

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Speaker 2: of a better term, and all the things.

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Speaker 4: You just described.

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Speaker 2: I heard a lot of potentially legitimate reasons, like why

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Speaker 2: you might like the bears here and bears plus two

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Speaker 2: plus two and a half depending on you know where

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Speaker 2: we're getting the they're even still at plus three at

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Speaker 2: some places is a perfectly great way to get your

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Speaker 2: money down. But everything you describe is and I'll ask

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Speaker 2: you a little bit of a devil's advocate question, Why

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Speaker 2: did you not settle on Daniel Jones under on the

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Speaker 2: pass props. Why did you not settle on Justin Fields

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Speaker 2: over on his rushing yards? Why are you not necessarily

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Speaker 2: looking at the alternate spread markets to see if there's

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Speaker 2: a slightly better price that captures the same general direction

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Speaker 2: of where you think the game is going to go.

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Speaker 2: So how did you settle on just your stock bears

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Speaker 2: plus three or plus two and a half?

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Speaker 4: Yes, this is a very loaded question, as you might gather.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so it is a good question, I would say.

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Speaker 3: Closer to kickoff, I think it makes sense to expound

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Speaker 3: on your thesis, your investment thesis, and look to get

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Speaker 3: action in the alternative markets earlier in the week, which

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Speaker 3: is when I tend to do a lot of my

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Speaker 3: research and establish some of my positions. Really, the best

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Speaker 3: way to do that, or sometimes the only way to

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Speaker 3: do that, is by attacking the spread market before those

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Speaker 3: lines kind of get bet into place. And so that

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Speaker 3: is the reason why I would go with the traditional spread.

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Speaker 3: But obviously, as props come out as more alternative lines

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Speaker 3: are released, it creates more opportunities in the market, and

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Speaker 3: it would make sense to try to exploit those.

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Speaker 2: It absolutely does, and I think we're all in a

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Speaker 2: consensus that this is the way that lines get hammered

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Speaker 2: into shape. You start with the first available spreads and

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Speaker 2: totals if you feel like your edge is bigger there.

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Speaker 2: It is basically the only market that you can get

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Speaker 2: down in. As you get closer to kickoff and these

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Speaker 2: new markets spring up, it absolutely behooves you to go

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Speaker 2: through every single one, examine all the prices, and figure

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Speaker 2: out which of the markets most closely match your investment thesis.

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Speaker 2: As we all know, it is incredibly cumbersome to go

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Speaker 2: through potentially eighty different markets at seven different sports books.

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Speaker 2: The permutations can get pretty overwhelming, and for most of

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Speaker 2: us it's just not feasible to go an odds shop

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Speaker 2: and every single one of those. Combine it with the

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Speaker 2: fact that some of these favorable prices are only available

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Speaker 2: during short windows, and you have to be able to

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Speaker 2: capitalize on a very short timeframe window, and so what

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Speaker 2: we've developed a BET scope, is a way to basically

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Speaker 2: scan the entire market and surface those most favorable bets

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Speaker 2: at a click of a button and all we need

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Speaker 2: for that. But process is a single belief. So let's

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Speaker 2: go back to your original thesis. You basically have this

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Speaker 2: projected at fair price. Is Giants minus one and a

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Speaker 2: half is the fair line in your view?

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Speaker 4: Correct?

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Speaker 2: So what we can do is we can go over

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Speaker 2: to the spread box here and instead of you know,

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Speaker 2: the consensus is around something, just over you know, minus two.

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Speaker 2: As a side note, the spread consensus is slightly different

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Speaker 2: than an average scoring differential. There's a lot of complicated

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Speaker 2: distribution math that is an explainer for why you might

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Speaker 2: see a slightly different number in the average spread your

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Speaker 2: scoring differential versus the spread numbers that are up there.

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Speaker 4: But that is a subject for another day. But let's

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Speaker 4: approximate it to say, on.

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Speaker 2: Average, you think the Giants are going to win by

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Speaker 2: one and a half instead of the you know two

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Speaker 2: two and a half they're projected.

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Speaker 4: What we can do is we can.

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Speaker 2: Update that spread number and run it through our correlations

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Speaker 2: engine and bet calculator. And what that will do is say,

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Speaker 2: in a world in which you're correct and that is

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Speaker 2: the true line, there are a lot of other bets

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Speaker 2: that also need to be adjusted, because in a world

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Speaker 2: where that is true, we will need to adjust all

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Speaker 2: of other numbers accordingly. So I look here, and there

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Speaker 2: don't seem to be any particularly special markets that show

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Speaker 2: any kind of huge price discrepancies.

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Speaker 4: I think there's all.

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Speaker 2: If we don't see any particular juicy opportunities, we can

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Speaker 2: kind of stick to our standard stock, you know, bears

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Speaker 2: plus two plus two and a half plus three. But

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Speaker 2: normally the way that we want to get down on

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Speaker 2: this is identifying markets with significant enough price discrepancies that

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Speaker 2: are correlated to the markets that were their original kind

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Speaker 2: of investment thesis. As of game time or as of

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Speaker 2: you know, Thursday. Right now, I don't see any particular

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Speaker 2: markets that are worth like especially worth attacking beyond I'm

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Speaker 2: sure to check, you know, closer to kickoff, as these

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Speaker 2: markets have a little bit more fluctuations. So I like,

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Speaker 2: as of now, I like your original bet.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I would say. One thing to keep in mind is

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Speaker 3: that because of the running back uncertainty with Montgomery, we

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Speaker 3: don't have a prop for him or Khalil Herbert in

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Speaker 3: the market yet, and I think the running backs would

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Speaker 3: probably be the likeliest the likeliest exploitable opportunities given the thesis,

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Speaker 3: because you know, like Justin Fields, he already has a

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Speaker 3: really low passing prop. The same with Daniel Jones. So

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Speaker 3: you know, moving from two point one as the general

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Speaker 3: consensus line down to one point five, I don't think

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Speaker 3: it would impact their lines all that much. The guys

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Speaker 3: who would probably impact the most don't have odds yet

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Speaker 3: in the prop market.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think that what you just described is

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Speaker 2: a process that everyone should really go through. Once you

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Speaker 2: have your investment thesis, you should be really mindful of

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Speaker 2: exactly which Marcus you're choosing to attack that thesis, because

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Speaker 2: there are too many people that just go through the

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Speaker 2: stock spread and don't really look for any other opportunities

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Speaker 2: in other markets. And the way to really capitalize on

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Speaker 2: Supercharger ROI is to have total awareness of all those markets.

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Speaker 4: At all times.

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Speaker 2: That is far easier to do with a market scanning

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Speaker 2: tool like Betscope that will surface those opportunities automatically given

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Speaker 2: a single input.

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Speaker 1: So what for this game? Then you talk about that

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Speaker 1: in minus one and a half points here, if you

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Speaker 1: were to try and find something for that market, what

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Speaker 1: would you be looking at, Matt.

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Speaker 2: If I look at you at what markets have special

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Speaker 2: opportunities capitalized. We do see kind of the green highlight

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Speaker 2: around the money line for here, and we do see

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Speaker 2: that there is pretty low synthetic hold. If you're curious

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Speaker 2: on what all of these colors mean as the color

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Speaker 2: as the boxes and different bets are highlighted using different colors,

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Speaker 2: we do have an explainer up here and kind of

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Speaker 2: a little help box over here that indicates what all

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Speaker 2: these colors mean. In the case of the green box,

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Speaker 2: we see that the synthetic hold, meaning you know, you

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Speaker 2: if to take the overall hold or the juice like

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Speaker 2: when you take the best obs available across all sports books,

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Speaker 2: this is a market that does have low synthetic hold,

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Speaker 2: and so I think if you really wanted to capitalize

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Speaker 2: on that, the best opportunity that's kind of slightly off

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Speaker 2: market from everyone else is the money line at FanDuel,

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Speaker 2: where you know, this is a pretty standard at this point,

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Speaker 2: just a standard line shopping exercise where you can probably

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Speaker 2: squeak out a little bit more ROI capitalizing on Bear's

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Speaker 2: money line at plus one thirty six, You're going to

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Speaker 2: get a little bit of better price there, and you

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Speaker 2: can see when you compare it to DraftKings, Like, let's say,

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Speaker 2: like your thesis is Fade Freeman at all times because

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Speaker 2: he's a hack and you know you don't really want

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Speaker 2: to pay attention to him. The best way that I

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Speaker 2: would do that would be to capitalize and bet on

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Speaker 2: the Giants money line at DraftKings, because you can see

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Speaker 2: how clearly off market it is from everywhere else.

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Speaker 4: And we'll go out of our way, out of.

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Speaker 2: Our way to highlight those markets that have those either

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Speaker 2: really low holes, split markets, arbitrage opportunities.

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Speaker 4: We will go out of our way to.

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Speaker 2: Highlight the markets that haven think a price discrepancies that

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Speaker 2: are indicative of that's maybe the attack factor that you

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Speaker 2: want to go in on for your investment thesis.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know, to follow up on what Colin

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Speaker 3: said there, and I would say, in all fairness, if

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Speaker 3: you are on the bears in this spot, it probably

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Speaker 3: does make more sense to bet the money line versus

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Speaker 3: the We'll say, like to the two that you're getting

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Speaker 3: in the market, because if they're going to if they're

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Speaker 3: going to have a good game, if they're going to dominate,

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Speaker 3: they're probably not winning by one or two points. It's

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Speaker 3: probably more like three, so I don't know. I prefer.

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Speaker 3: I actually do prefer in general the money line in

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Speaker 3: this spot to this bread.

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Speaker 1: Guys, real quick, I want to talk to you about Sleeper.

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Speaker 1: in a football game or number of points in a

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Speaker 4: Now, how about this next.

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Speaker 1: Game that we have up here, gentlemen, We're gonna be

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Speaker 1: looking at the Cardinals going up against the Panthers. Matt,

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Speaker 1: you have the Cardinals plus one and a half, which

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Speaker 1: is still the line that you're going to be getting

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Speaker 1: pretty much anywhere in this one. And what are you

350
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Speaker 1: thinking in this game?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I have the Cardinals as one point seventy five favorites

353
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Speaker 3: in this game. Like I do not think there is

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Speaker 3: a world in which Carolina should be favored. Like say that, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I just I do not see it. You know, I'm

356
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Speaker 3: looking at these teams, looking at what they've done, and

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Speaker 3: given the priors that I had entering the season, I

358
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Speaker 3: don't think we've seen enough out of Carolina to move

359
00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:45,720
Speaker 3: the number in this direction, and Cliff Kingsbury trash. His

360
00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:49,200
Speaker 3: scheme is so bad. He doesn't have a scheme. It's

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Speaker 3: just Kyler. Please go bail me out. But that said,

362
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Speaker 3: he's actually been a I would say he's even been

363
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Speaker 3: a good coach, but he's been a beneficiary of incorrect

364
00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:02,960
Speaker 3: line when he has been in certain spots. On the road,

365
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Speaker 3: he's eighteen six and two against the spread. As an underdog,

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00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:09,960
Speaker 3: he's nineteen nine and two against the spread, and as

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00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:14,000
Speaker 3: a road dog he is an outrageous fourteen three and

368
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Speaker 3: two against the spread. On the money line as a

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00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:19,639
Speaker 3: road dog, twelve and seven. And then you look at

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Speaker 3: Matt Ruhle, who is the exact opposite of that. At home,

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00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:26,960
Speaker 3: he's five and thirteen against the spread. As a favorite,

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00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:30,040
Speaker 3: he is three and ten against the spread, and as

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Speaker 3: a home favorite against the spread and on the money

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Speaker 3: line he is one and seven, absolutely horrible. So you

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Speaker 3: have like these two coaches lining up perfectly in the

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Speaker 3: exact spots where you should be betting on one and

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Speaker 3: betting against the other. And look you have Kyler Murray

378
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Speaker 3: versus Baker Mayfield, and Baker Mayfield is somehow a favorite.

379
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Speaker 3: I feel like that pretty much says it all. You know,

380
00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:57,040
Speaker 3: both of these teams have similar advantages in the running game.

381
00:18:57,359 --> 00:18:59,719
Speaker 3: The Cardinals offense is number two in rush success rate,

382
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Speaker 3: the Payanther's defense is number fifteen in that metric, and

383
00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:05,679
Speaker 3: then the Panthers offense is number two in rush EPA.

384
00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:08,879
Speaker 3: The Cardinals defense is number fifteen in that metric. I

385
00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:11,040
Speaker 3: think both teams want to lean on the ground game,

386
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Speaker 3: But when the Cardinals choose to pass, they have Kyler

387
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Speaker 3: Murray and he has a massive edge relative to Baker

388
00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:20,040
Speaker 3: Mayfield and a direct edge against the Panthers defense and

389
00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:22,399
Speaker 3: the secondary. You know, just kind of looking at our

390
00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:25,320
Speaker 3: Fantasy pros unit power rankings, we have Kyler Murray's the

391
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,760
Speaker 3: number nine quarterback in the league. The defense for the

392
00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:31,479
Speaker 3: Panthers is number nineteen. And as bad as we might

393
00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:34,000
Speaker 3: think the Cardinals offensive line is, it's no worse than

394
00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:37,000
Speaker 3: the Panthers defensive line. Like we have the Cardinals with

395
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Speaker 3: the number twenty four offensive line the Panthers with the

396
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Speaker 3: number twenty four defensive line. So I think, you know,

397
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Speaker 3: per usual, Murray is the difference in this game and

398
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Speaker 3: in the offseason market this number was Cardinals minus two

399
00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:52,960
Speaker 3: and now it is Cardinals plus one and a half

400
00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:57,359
Speaker 3: plus two at some spots. I just I can't imagine

401
00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:00,880
Speaker 3: that we have seen enough in three games to move

402
00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:05,440
Speaker 3: this number that much. So I will be taking Cardinals

403
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:10,600
Speaker 3: as dogs on the road, very very lustily. I will

404
00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:11,639
Speaker 3: take them in the spot.

405
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Speaker 1: Well, you know the best way that you can do

406
00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:16,000
Speaker 1: that right now, the best odds you're getting. You've got

407
00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:19,760
Speaker 1: bet MGM at plus two on the Cardinals, still hanging

408
00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:22,919
Speaker 1: that number right now, And if you wanted to take

409
00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:25,960
Speaker 1: advantage of a great offer to bet that at bet mgm,

410
00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:27,959
Speaker 1: you should sign up for an account today and use

411
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:31,000
Speaker 1: the promo code betting pros for one thousand dollars risk

412
00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,480
Speaker 1: free bet right off the bat. Maybe you use that

413
00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:37,200
Speaker 1: on this Cardinals plus two line, just saying there's some

414
00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:41,879
Speaker 1: potential there. But Colin, where would you be looking, given

415
00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:44,080
Speaker 1: all of the tools at bet Scope, what is that

416
00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:47,640
Speaker 1: telling you is the best play here in Cardinals versus Panthers.

417
00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:53,160
Speaker 2: So coaching driven investment, THESS or lines or angles whatever

418
00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:56,240
Speaker 2: you want to take, are usually pretty tougher to diagnose

419
00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:58,560
Speaker 2: because you know, normally when we're talking about how we

420
00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:00,439
Speaker 2: think the game is going to go slightly different than

421
00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:02,639
Speaker 2: the market we can key it in on you know,

422
00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:06,600
Speaker 2: specific player matchups, I think coaching tendencies and how they

423
00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:09,360
Speaker 2: affect and all those trends and things like that are real,

424
00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:12,800
Speaker 2: but it's really tougher to transmute that into something like

425
00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:15,320
Speaker 2: the prop market, where you have a clear cut like

426
00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:19,199
Speaker 2: this will influence like this particular player will play by

427
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:22,000
Speaker 2: it or worse than usual, And so I tend to

428
00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:25,000
Speaker 2: lean into just you know, you can stick with the

429
00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:28,359
Speaker 2: standard spreads and total stock markets, but usually there is

430
00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:31,120
Speaker 2: some value to be found in the alternate markets as well.

431
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:34,840
Speaker 2: So one thing we also highlight here is all of

432
00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:37,760
Speaker 2: these alternate spread markets. And what we see is interesting

433
00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:41,720
Speaker 2: is there's already there's already been some pretty significant price

434
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Speaker 2: movement in the meantime, because there was a moment here

435
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 2: where we did see at some point Arizona plus seven

436
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:51,280
Speaker 2: was getting a pretty favorable price from barstool only at

437
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Speaker 2: around minus three ten. Since then it's moved to minus

438
00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:58,400
Speaker 2: three eighty five. So there are clearly other people patrolling

439
00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:02,560
Speaker 2: these same markets. This is an interesting problem to solve

440
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:05,120
Speaker 2: because you know, Friedman, I could ask you, like, great,

441
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:08,960
Speaker 2: if you like Arizona at you know, minus one, you

442
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:10,760
Speaker 2: think you know the true line for this game should

443
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:14,200
Speaker 2: be plus one over here by transitive property. If you

444
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:17,720
Speaker 2: like Arizona plus one, you probably also like Arizona plus

445
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:20,159
Speaker 2: seven as well, Like you think that's more likely to

446
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:22,879
Speaker 2: hit than the quote unquote consensus market price.

447
00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:23,320
Speaker 4: Correct.

448
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:28,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, so Arizona, I guess they're plus one, and so yeah,

449
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 3: if I like Arizona plus one, I like Arizona plus seven,

450
00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:34,120
Speaker 3: just depending on what the juice is exactly.

451
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 4: So that is the trickiest question, depending on what the

452
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:37,840
Speaker 4: juice is.

453
00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:39,639
Speaker 2: And so if I were to put you on the spot,

454
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:42,040
Speaker 2: which I guess I am right now, if you like

455
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 2: Arizona plus one at minus one ten, at what price

456
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,800
Speaker 2: would you bet Arizona plus seven? I'm going to stop

457
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:51,400
Speaker 2: you there, because I think that is honestly a difficult

458
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 2: question to ask unless you're kind of knee deep in knowing,

459
00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:58,440
Speaker 2: like what the value is of six points, Like we're

460
00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:00,359
Speaker 2: all like, we all know, like a value of point

461
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:03,440
Speaker 2: maybe half a point and stuff like that. Like, but

462
00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:07,159
Speaker 2: unless like your knee deep in distributions, that may not

463
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:10,480
Speaker 2: be something you can answer, you know, in five seconds.

464
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 3: Well, that is absolutely some Well let me think about

465
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:19,159
Speaker 3: this a little bit, uh, I would say maybe plus sorry, Uh,

466
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:23,680
Speaker 3: it's okay, So maybe minus two fifty two seventy five.

467
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:27,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, Thomas gonna take a crack at it.

468
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:31,920
Speaker 1: Well, plus one at minus one ten is equal to

469
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:33,879
Speaker 1: plus seven at minus three hundred.

470
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:37,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's I mean, it's about It depends on what

471
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:40,440
Speaker 2: your view of the distribution of outcomes is in that game.

472
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:42,879
Speaker 2: And so we all have standard calculators. You know, we

473
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 2: can kind of look up and kind of make those inferences.

474
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:48,399
Speaker 2: It's very difficult to do on the fly. If you

475
00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:52,040
Speaker 2: notice that there is a window of opportunity, uh, to

476
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:54,119
Speaker 2: get those to lock in those good prices and do

477
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:54,680
Speaker 2: that math.

478
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:55,639
Speaker 4: We can do it.

479
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 2: But one of the things we pride ourselves on Betscope

480
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,720
Speaker 2: is having that math integrate under the hood, where if

481
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 2: you can just put in your original thesis, we will

482
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:07,240
Speaker 2: do all of that distribution math for you and tell

483
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 2: you whether or not it is a positive expectation bet

484
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:12,359
Speaker 2: or not. Now I see here that that price is

485
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 2: no longer available barstool. It used to be at minus

486
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 2: three ten and has since moved to three eighty five.

487
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:21,480
Speaker 2: It's unfortunate that we can't get that price anymore. But

488
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:24,440
Speaker 2: all the same, we can change our stats accordingly, run

489
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:26,800
Speaker 2: it through the calculator, and see if there's any additional

490
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:30,680
Speaker 2: opportunities as of the quick assessment here as a reminder

491
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 2: of like what I'm looking at when all of these

492
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 2: dots are here and our games dropped down menu, that

493
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:38,360
Speaker 2: will tell you how many markets there are of each

494
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:42,000
Speaker 2: of each price discrepancy type, whether it's low hold, whether

495
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:45,360
Speaker 2: it's split market, whether or that's arbitrage. As of filming time,

496
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:48,760
Speaker 2: I don't see anything available for Cardinals Panthers. But we'll

497
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 2: also notice that we only really only have quarterback props up,

498
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:55,440
Speaker 2: and so it's not particularly surprising that given that there

499
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:59,920
Speaker 2: are no prop markets, there aren't potentially many available BETE

500
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 2: markets with prices creptancy opportunities. So similar to the last game,

501
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:06,639
Speaker 2: I would check this closer to kickoff as more of

502
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 2: these markets come online and we can kind of see,

503
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:10,719
Speaker 2: is there, you know, price movement in all of these

504
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 2: different areas.

505
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:14,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's a game in which both starting running

506
00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 3: backs are dealing with injuries, and so props haven't been

507
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 3: released for them, and you know, the wide receiver units

508
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:25,480
Speaker 3: for both teams they're pretty mediocre, and so you know

509
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:29,040
Speaker 3: there might not be a robust prop market for this game.

510
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 3: Even as we get closer to kickoff, there will be

511
00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:33,800
Speaker 3: more props released, but you know, we might not have

512
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:36,720
Speaker 3: the full menu that we otherwise would if these teams

513
00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 3: were actually functional.

514
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,520
Speaker 1: You're not kidding about the mediocrity of the passing offense.

515
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:44,199
Speaker 1: Is the Massy Peabody unit grade for the passing offense

516
00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:47,600
Speaker 1: for the Cardinals this year, this week or it's on

517
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:48,880
Speaker 1: a scale of one hundred.

518
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's amazing, honestly, like surprising to me.

519
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:55,679
Speaker 1: But how does this number change? Because the spread right

520
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,199
Speaker 1: now isn't one, it's one and a half. How does

521
00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:00,920
Speaker 1: that have if we to change it to one and

522
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:03,000
Speaker 1: a half. How does that affect your calculations? Does it

523
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:04,160
Speaker 1: bring up anything for us there?

524
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 2: I think that just given the lack of markets and

525
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 2: just like kind of the low maybe liquidity is not

526
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 2: the right term, but just given the lack of like

527
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 2: attack vectors, I don't think it's going to change much

528
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:18,200
Speaker 2: because you know, when you're really looking for opportunities, sometimes

529
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:20,840
Speaker 2: it's kind of the classic like you can only play

530
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 2: against once the defense. What the defense gives you. The

531
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:25,639
Speaker 2: analogy here is if there just aren't a lot of

532
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,119
Speaker 2: markets to get down on. There's probably not going to

533
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 2: be as much opportunities, so you kind of are limited

534
00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:33,119
Speaker 2: by what the books offer. That's why it behooves you

535
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:36,520
Speaker 2: to stay patients, to monitor the odds as the week progresses,

536
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 2: and just monitor tools like these to see, you know,

537
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,800
Speaker 2: when the opportunities arise. You will see it in the

538
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:45,920
Speaker 2: notifications of whatever opportunities we're surfacing here. It kind of

539
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 2: alert you to you know, like the at least the

540
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 2: presence of certain markets that you should be attacking.

541
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:53,600
Speaker 1: Well, let's see if there's anything better to attack in

542
00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 1: our next game. Up here, we've got the Denver Broncos

543
00:26:56,480 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 1: and the Las Vegas Raiders Denver heads to love Vegas

544
00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:02,920
Speaker 1: as two and a half point dogs in this one,

545
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 1: And Matt, I already know your answer because you have

546
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:08,359
Speaker 1: been so low on the Raiders all year, and in

547
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:10,760
Speaker 1: all fairness, it's kind of working out as they do

548
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:13,399
Speaker 1: sit at zero to three here in this one right now,

549
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 1: so I can't really poke holes in your theory. But

550
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 1: that being said, I'm on the opposite side of you

551
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:20,800
Speaker 1: in this game here you're going with the Broncos.

552
00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:24,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have Denver as a slight favorite point two

553
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:28,280
Speaker 3: five points, I think they should be favored, and so

554
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 3: at you know, plus two and a half, I'm seeing,

555
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:35,119
Speaker 3: you know, pretty significant value there. And you know, there

556
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 3: are a number of I think ways in which you

557
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 3: could look at this and say I just don't I

558
00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:42,200
Speaker 3: just don't buy it, you know, Like one, you could

559
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 3: just look at the Raiders record for one, but you

560
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:48,960
Speaker 3: know we will dive deeper than that. But I also say,

561
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:52,119
Speaker 3: Derek Carr, it's not that he should never be favored, okay,

562
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 3: but he's thirteen twenty five and one against the spread

563
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:57,359
Speaker 3: as a favorite like that clearly has not been a

564
00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:01,359
Speaker 3: historical spot for betting on him. And Russell Wilson twenty

565
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:03,959
Speaker 3: seven to thirteen and two against the spread as an

566
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:07,200
Speaker 3: underdog for his career. So we are getting both of

567
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:10,280
Speaker 3: these guys in kind of their sweet spot. And Divisional

568
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 3: road underdogs have been especially good in the first month

569
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 3: of the season historically one hundred and thirty to ninety

570
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:20,040
Speaker 3: five to eight against the spread, good for a twelve

571
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:25,119
Speaker 3: point six return on investment for the Divisional Road underdogs.

572
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:29,440
Speaker 3: And I think this game really comes down to Russell

573
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:32,879
Speaker 3: Wilson against the Raiders pass defense. The Raiders have no

574
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:35,280
Speaker 3: offensive edge in this game. But the Broncos have a

575
00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:37,400
Speaker 3: big one and that they have Russell Wilson. And it's

576
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 3: not as if he's been great this year, but the

577
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 3: Raiders have been very subpart in pass defense. They rank

578
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 3: bottom six in both drop back EPA and success rate,

579
00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 3: and that strong edge duo of Max Crosby and Chandler

580
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 3: Jones has managed just two sacks. Even let me rephrase that,

581
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 3: even with them, it's not that those two guys have

582
00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:59,720
Speaker 3: two sacks. The entire defense has just two sacks on

583
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:02,600
Speaker 3: the year. And so they let you know, quarterback Justin

584
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:05,320
Speaker 3: Herbert walk all over them in week one, they let

585
00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 3: Kyler Murray come back from a twenty to zero halftime deficit.

586
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 3: In Week two, they let Ryan Tannehill save his jaw

587
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:16,800
Speaker 3: and maybe the Titan season. In Week three, and they're injured.

588
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 3: They've already lost number two cornerback Anthony Averett. They might

589
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 3: be without number three cornerback Nate Hobbs, and even number

590
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:28,600
Speaker 3: one cornerback Rakya Sin He was on the injury report

591
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 3: with a knee injury. I bet he plays, but still

592
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 3: like they are not, They're nowhere close to full health

593
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 3: at cornerback, safety for Von morg has been out the

594
00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:39,600
Speaker 3: past two weeks with the hip injury, and their main

595
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 3: off ball coverage linebacker Denzel Perryman, he's been out the

596
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 3: past two weeks with an ankle injury. No guarantee that

597
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 3: those guys come back this week. One of them might,

598
00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 3: maybe both of them will, but they probably won't be

599
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 3: one hundred percent healthy. And so it's just a Raiders

600
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 3: defense that is very exploitable, and I think we see

601
00:29:57,480 --> 00:30:01,520
Speaker 3: Russell Wilson have his Broncos breakout against that very weak unit.

602
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 3: This line was a pick them, a pick them in

603
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 3: the offseason, and maybe the Broncos aren't as good as

604
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:10,120
Speaker 3: the market anticipated they would be months ago, but that's

605
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 3: definitely true for the Raiders too. So I still think

606
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 3: the Broncos should be the slightest of favorites in this game.

607
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,120
Speaker 3: And so at two and a half, I really like

608
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:20,760
Speaker 3: the value that I'm seeing in the market.

609
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 1: My problem is just.

610
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 3: Who have you played?

611
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 1: And for me with Denver, you've played three teams that

612
00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 1: I do not think highly of at all. You got

613
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:33,600
Speaker 1: Seattle and you could only score sixteen points against them. Yeah,

614
00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 1: they were the two goal line fumbles and that game

615
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:37,479
Speaker 1: should have gone differently, like this team should be three

616
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:40,520
Speaker 1: to zero, but even then you got Houston. After that

617
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 1: you can only put sixteen points up against that defense.

618
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 1: And then you got the forty nine Ers. Okay, the

619
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 1: defense is good, but team overall, you got Jimmy Gett quarterback.

620
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 1: And it's an eleven to ten game that sets football

621
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 1: back about seventy years in my mind. The Raiders hung

622
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 1: tough in there with the Chargers in Week one, and

623
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:02,680
Speaker 1: then in week two you have the collapse against Arizona,

624
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:05,680
Speaker 1: and then in week three you have another tough game

625
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:08,120
Speaker 1: against Tennessee. Honestly, even at oh and three, I think

626
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:11,600
Speaker 1: this team has put up better performances so far than

627
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 1: we've seen out of Denver. And I also think it's

628
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 1: that division rivalry aspect to it, Like it's not something

629
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 1: that you normally want to bet on, but the Raiders

630
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 1: always get up for the Denver game and I don't

631
00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 1: see them falling to oh and four in this spot

632
00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 1: against Broncos country Let's Ride and his psychopathic sandwich commercials.

633
00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:37,960
Speaker 3: I will say I did look in bet labs to

634
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 3: see if there were any trends on teams that were

635
00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 3: oh and three, and there are trends that normally those

636
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:48,760
Speaker 3: teams actually do very well against the spread. However, the

637
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:53,040
Speaker 3: teams that are home favorites don't. They're just break even.

638
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 3: So I don't really think there's I'm not gonna put

639
00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 3: too much in the the oh and three thing.

640
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:00,360
Speaker 4: For me.

641
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 1: It's also I think that Darren Waller and DeVante Adams

642
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:05,040
Speaker 1: are just better than any weapons that they've had to

643
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:08,120
Speaker 1: deal with so far. Deebo Samuel nullified by the whole

644
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:10,680
Speaker 1: fact that Jimmy G's your quarterback. But Colin, what are

645
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:11,720
Speaker 1: you looking at in this game?

646
00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:14,520
Speaker 2: I'm looking at the lack of prop markets for the Raiders.

647
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 2: Yet again, I feel like a broken record. I mean,

648
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 2: like that being said, like it's you know, it's always

649
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:24,440
Speaker 2: like relevant to you know, keep in mind when market's open.

650
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 2: But in terms of the you know, the markets the

651
00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 2: best scope has identified for things you might want to

652
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 2: attack and the alternate spreads, Raiders minus three and a

653
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:35,960
Speaker 2: half has a little bit of price discrepancies here on

654
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:39,240
Speaker 2: both sides. By extension, if you like, you know Denver

655
00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:41,600
Speaker 2: plus two, you'll also like Denver plus three and a

656
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 2: half and what it's able to detect.

657
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:45,680
Speaker 4: With the way that it runs its distributions.

658
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:49,000
Speaker 2: Under the hood is sometimes people will miss do critical

659
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 2: mispricing things like make the hook a little bit too cheap.

660
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 2: I think Denver plus three and a half. Like we

661
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 2: all know the value of the hook. We don't need to,

662
00:32:57,280 --> 00:33:00,280
Speaker 2: you know, like expound on that a lot. But you

663
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 2: can see all the other books have kind of priced

664
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:04,840
Speaker 2: it accordingly or in a high minus one thirty. Sometimes

665
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 2: in the minus one forty. Barstool only has it at

666
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 2: minus one thirty. So we're identifying an opportunity where they've

667
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 2: probably mispriced the hook.

668
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 4: A little bit, made it a little bit too cheap.

669
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 2: The payout is a little bit less, but you know,

670
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 2: if it comes down to maybe it's within a field goal,

671
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 2: that hook is going to give you.

672
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 4: The extra range of outcomes that you need.

673
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:27,080
Speaker 2: So I think there's opportunity to take the hook at

674
00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 2: Barstool because I think it made it a little bit

675
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 2: too cheap.

676
00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 4: In the alternate spreads market.

677
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 1: They're offering three and a half minus one thirty right now. Yeah, yeah,

678
00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 1: you got to jump on that number.

679
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 2: That eight. We have it set up also as well,

680
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:41,640
Speaker 2: so you can just click on it and it I'll

681
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 2: take you right to the game.

682
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 4: Page.

683
00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:45,840
Speaker 2: One of the critical things, and it's really underrated when

684
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 2: you're trying to get down is as these opportunities are,

685
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:51,720
Speaker 2: you know, sometimes fleeting only in minutes, the less friction

686
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:55,280
Speaker 2: that you can reduce between identifying opportunities and just getting

687
00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 2: to the page. We take pains to make sure that

688
00:33:57,840 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 2: we are going to get you with all of our

689
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:02,840
Speaker 2: vetted links to that page and to that exact bet

690
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 2: as quickly as possible, because at some point this is

691
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 2: a timing question, not a ability to identify the edge question.

692
00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:13,239
Speaker 2: So you really have to utilize every tool at your

693
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:16,719
Speaker 2: disposal to make sure that you're capitalizing on these mispricings.

694
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 3: Man, that's that is a great bet because normally I

695
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:23,480
Speaker 3: think it doesn't make a lot of sense, because this

696
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:25,480
Speaker 3: is just sort of like an extended version of like

697
00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:30,440
Speaker 3: buying points, you know, and I think normally it doesn't

698
00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:33,160
Speaker 3: make a lot of sense to buy points. But if

699
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:37,040
Speaker 3: you're you know, looking at the total market and seeing

700
00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:41,120
Speaker 3: the one area where there has been some mispricing, yeah,

701
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:42,759
Speaker 3: to be able to get the hook to go from

702
00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:44,320
Speaker 3: two and a half to three and a half, to

703
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:46,239
Speaker 3: go all the way through the key number to get

704
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:48,680
Speaker 3: to three and a half, and to have only minus

705
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:53,400
Speaker 3: one thirty right to pay twenty cents there through the

706
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 3: key number for that entire point. That is I think

707
00:34:57,640 --> 00:34:58,400
Speaker 3: very good value.

708
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:01,320
Speaker 2: Absolutely. And this this is where tools like Beths Scope

709
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 2: really shine. It's automatically figuring that out under the hood

710
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:07,960
Speaker 2: and surfacing it for you. You can imagine how painstaking

711
00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 2: and laborious it would be to evaluate all those key

712
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:12,920
Speaker 2: numbers on the fly, refresh every minute and kind of

713
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:15,880
Speaker 2: do that math yourself. This is this should be the

714
00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 2: domain of a tool to identify places where they've mispriced

715
00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:21,440
Speaker 2: the hook and just directing towards it as soon as possible.

716
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:24,759
Speaker 1: Now, the next game that you've got up here, Matt,

717
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:27,520
Speaker 1: you are looking at the Buccaneers versus the Chiefs. The

718
00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:31,759
Speaker 1: Bucks getting two points, that's what you're looking at. Here,

719
00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 1: you're looking at bus two.

720
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 4: I think this numbers might move. This is moved.

721
00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:38,479
Speaker 3: It's now Buccaneers favored by one. Yeah.

722
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:40,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, so like it?

723
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:46,520
Speaker 3: No, I'm I mean, if anything, I so let me

724
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 3: see here. If anything, I now like Kansas City a

725
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:53,360
Speaker 3: little bit, but we're all in that realm of like

726
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:57,400
Speaker 3: pick them. I originally had this when I was projecting

727
00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:00,840
Speaker 3: it as a pick them, and I first bet on

728
00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:04,239
Speaker 3: this was Tampa Bay plus three when the early line

729
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:08,360
Speaker 3: was released, and that has moved down obviously. Now I

730
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:14,880
Speaker 3: have Kansas City favored by point five and and so

731
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 3: I'm showing like one and a half points of value.

732
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:22,800
Speaker 3: But given where we are in the market, I'm probably

733
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 3: honestly not betting this at this point because I, you know,

734
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:28,919
Speaker 3: like we're within the realm of it's like it's past

735
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:29,920
Speaker 3: my limits, you know.

736
00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:34,839
Speaker 1: I but you talked about now maybe like Kansas City

737
00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:38,080
Speaker 1: a little bit. For me, I'm still worried about these

738
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:41,040
Speaker 1: in this injury front for the for the Bucks right now.

739
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:43,600
Speaker 1: They they've still got a lot of guys banged up

740
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:45,319
Speaker 1: that are supposed to be coming back for this game.

741
00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:46,680
Speaker 1: But do you think the Brady's gonna have his full

742
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 1: compliment of weapons?

743
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 3: Not the full compliment, But you know, Mike Evans is returning.

744
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:56,360
Speaker 3: It looks like Julio Jones is going to play. Russell

745
00:36:56,400 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 3: Gage has been playing through his hamstring injury, so like,

746
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:02,359
Speaker 3: I don't think we should expect him not to play.

747
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:07,000
Speaker 3: Chris Godwin, who knows left tackle Donovan Smith, We really

748
00:37:07,080 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 3: don't know, but he is starting to get some of

749
00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 3: his players back, So I think that in part is

750
00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:16,000
Speaker 3: why the line has moved. Also, like I will say,

751
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:22,600
Speaker 3: I don't know about the the venue situation for Tampa Bay,

752
00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:25,960
Speaker 3: Like I don't know if the market was expecting. I

753
00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:28,479
Speaker 3: would just say it's weird to me that the line

754
00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 3: has moved in this direction with the knowledge that the

755
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 3: Buccaneers might not be playing this game at home, unless

756
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:39,240
Speaker 3: there actually has been clarification that they will be playing

757
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:39,879
Speaker 3: in Tampa Bay.

758
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:43,799
Speaker 1: As far as I know, I saw. I can look

759
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:47,239
Speaker 1: it up again, but I definitely saw a notification that

760
00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:48,799
Speaker 1: they're going to play this game in Tampa Bay.

761
00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:52,279
Speaker 3: Okay, So I think that explains then at least a

762
00:37:52,360 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 3: part of this line move. But yeah, like I now,

763
00:37:56,520 --> 00:37:59,480
Speaker 3: at Tampa Bay minus one, I do see some value

764
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 3: on Camp the City. Again, I don't think that's anything

765
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 3: I would be betting at this point, but you know,

766
00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:09,920
Speaker 3: maybe callin with Betscope is able to find bets that

767
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:13,359
Speaker 3: have even more value on Kansas City, and that would

768
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:15,120
Speaker 3: be a way to navigate the market.

769
00:38:15,760 --> 00:38:18,800
Speaker 2: Indeed, Colin, I'm actually going to flip it on you,

770
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:21,200
Speaker 2: so I know you're asking about the spreads the whole time,

771
00:38:21,640 --> 00:38:23,640
Speaker 2: but one of the ways that I also use bet

772
00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:26,760
Speaker 2: scope is actually not to start with my investment thesis first,

773
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:30,880
Speaker 2: but to identify the markets with the biggest discrepancies and

774
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:34,200
Speaker 2: see if there's a reason to essentially not bet them. So,

775
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:36,360
Speaker 2: I know we've been talking about the size of the

776
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:38,400
Speaker 2: whole time, but let me flip it on you and

777
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 2: just say, like, do you either of you have opinions

778
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:41,360
Speaker 2: on the.

779
00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:42,399
Speaker 4: Totals either way?

780
00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 2: I asked because we scroll through in these alternate totals

781
00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:48,879
Speaker 2: market and we can see two books here points bet

782
00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:51,320
Speaker 2: and FanDuel that are on the verge of a straight

783
00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:55,160
Speaker 2: up arbitrage situation where you could bet both sides of

784
00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:57,600
Speaker 2: these things if you just feel like fun and basically

785
00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:01,520
Speaker 2: guarantee a zero percent return. Usually when that's the case,

786
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:06,239
Speaker 2: then if we have even the slightest inclination of directionally

787
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:08,279
Speaker 2: do we think the total is going to go over

788
00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 2: or under? We can capitalize on one of these And

789
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:14,400
Speaker 2: I looking at it, these are so far apart on

790
00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:17,800
Speaker 2: either side of it. I'm indifferent on which side we have.

791
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:20,920
Speaker 2: But even if we have the slightest bit of intuition

792
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 2: on the totals, this is a market that we should

793
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 2: be targeting because the synthetic cold is essentially zero, and

794
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:30,319
Speaker 2: so once you're betting into a zero hold market, you're

795
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:34,160
Speaker 2: essentially free rolling it over the long term. So either

796
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:36,400
Speaker 2: of you have any opinions on the totals. I do.

797
00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:40,040
Speaker 3: I have a position on under forty seven. The line

798
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:42,000
Speaker 3: is now forty five and a half, but I haven't

799
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:45,759
Speaker 3: projected at forty three point seven, so I still think

800
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:48,360
Speaker 3: that there's pretty decent value to the under. And I

801
00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:50,759
Speaker 3: mean the thesis is these teams are going to run,

802
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:55,160
Speaker 3: you know, I mean the Buccaneers they have been a

803
00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:59,360
Speaker 3: run heavy team and the and then when they have

804
00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 3: been trying to throw, they haven't been doing it all

805
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:03,800
Speaker 3: that efficiently. And then on the other side you have

806
00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:07,960
Speaker 3: Kansas City, which is running more than they have previously.

807
00:40:08,080 --> 00:40:10,480
Speaker 3: They don't have the explosive pass offense that they used

808
00:40:10,480 --> 00:40:12,840
Speaker 3: to have, and they're going against the secondary that is

809
00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:15,439
Speaker 3: probably the best in the league, if not the best,

810
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:19,680
Speaker 3: certainly top three. So this feels like a smash spot

811
00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:20,279
Speaker 3: for the under.

812
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:21,759
Speaker 4: Absolutely.

813
00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:24,399
Speaker 2: I mean, that's a perfectly good investment thesis right there.

814
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:27,080
Speaker 2: As you can see what we did with bet scope

815
00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:29,839
Speaker 2: is we can punch in your projected total of forty

816
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:32,719
Speaker 2: three point seven, run it see how that affects all

817
00:40:32,800 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 2: the other props and all the other markets, and updates

818
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:38,880
Speaker 2: the numbers accordingly, and we have our spit out recommended

819
00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:40,040
Speaker 2: bet here.

820
00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 4: If you like under forty three three point seven, and

821
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:45,880
Speaker 4: by extension.

822
00:40:45,520 --> 00:40:47,440
Speaker 2: You know, like you know you like the under on

823
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:50,279
Speaker 2: forty six and a half, you also like the under

824
00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:52,279
Speaker 2: of thirty eight and a half, taking on a little

825
00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:54,640
Speaker 2: bit more risk for a little bit more payout. As

826
00:40:54,719 --> 00:40:58,120
Speaker 2: we saw in that previous prop tool comparison, FanDuel has

827
00:40:58,160 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 2: the under thirty eight and a half with a pretty

828
00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:04,759
Speaker 2: significantly higher payout than the rest of market consensus. If

829
00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:06,920
Speaker 2: I want to target the under, I feel like this

830
00:41:07,160 --> 00:41:10,160
Speaker 2: line at this payout at FanDuel is the best way

831
00:41:10,200 --> 00:41:13,640
Speaker 2: to target it. And again that's where things like distribution

832
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 2: shine and all of the math. We have the under

833
00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:18,600
Speaker 2: the hood that basically does that full range of outcomes

834
00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:21,759
Speaker 2: for you. We will surface those opportunities where if you

835
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:24,360
Speaker 2: like the under in general, let's figure out the exact

836
00:41:24,440 --> 00:41:27,560
Speaker 2: totals and the exact payouts that will maximize your return

837
00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:29,879
Speaker 2: and just give you kind of a pre selective sort

838
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:32,120
Speaker 2: order of exactly where you should be going to get

839
00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:32,680
Speaker 2: that down.

840
00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:36,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, thirty eight and a half. That is interesting. I mean,

841
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:40,560
Speaker 3: it's not all that far from forty three point seven,

842
00:41:40,760 --> 00:41:43,759
Speaker 3: and you're still you're still with the key number of

843
00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:47,480
Speaker 3: thirty eight there, So I actually, I do, I do

844
00:41:47,640 --> 00:41:50,160
Speaker 3: find that one interesting, especially you said plus two fifty

845
00:41:50,520 --> 00:41:51,560
Speaker 3: that's pretty significant.

846
00:41:52,200 --> 00:41:55,840
Speaker 4: Two point fifty is large, even just comparing to other books.

847
00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:56,560
Speaker 4: It is large.

848
00:41:56,880 --> 00:41:59,320
Speaker 2: That is like a spot where you maybe want to

849
00:41:59,320 --> 00:42:01,399
Speaker 2: take on a little bit more risk because the higher

850
00:42:01,440 --> 00:42:02,800
Speaker 2: payout is in fact worth it.

851
00:42:03,200 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, now, how.

852
00:42:05,920 --> 00:42:07,880
Speaker 1: About one more game here for you, Matt. We've got

853
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:10,480
Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers and the Rams on Monday Night Football,

854
00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:13,759
Speaker 1: because for some reason, our primetime matches continue to be

855
00:42:13,840 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 1: the NFL wanting us to suffer. We got the forty

856
00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 1: nine ers last week, we get them again this week.

857
00:42:18,760 --> 00:42:21,040
Speaker 1: The Rams are getting two and a half points in

858
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:21,840
Speaker 1: Santa Clara.

859
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:22,120
Speaker 4: Here.

860
00:42:23,600 --> 00:42:26,920
Speaker 1: I don't care about the historical trend of the forty

861
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:30,000
Speaker 1: nine ers having the Rams number. I'm all aboard the

862
00:42:30,080 --> 00:42:32,800
Speaker 1: Los Angeles train in this one with the two and

863
00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:33,919
Speaker 1: a half. Where are you going?

864
00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:37,840
Speaker 3: Yeah? So looking now, I did bet this first to

865
00:42:37,920 --> 00:42:40,279
Speaker 3: two and a half. I believe it's now one and

866
00:42:40,360 --> 00:42:44,879
Speaker 3: a half across the market and that I would still

867
00:42:44,920 --> 00:42:47,120
Speaker 3: bet it at one and a half, but that is

868
00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:53,560
Speaker 3: that is the limit I have it projected for a picklem,

869
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:56,960
Speaker 3: so I think one and a half is probably right

870
00:42:57,000 --> 00:42:59,600
Speaker 3: there at the limit. You look at some of the

871
00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:02,800
Speaker 3: historic you had mentioned, Yeah, there is the historical trend

872
00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:07,800
Speaker 3: of Kyle Shanahan just absolutely owning Sean McVay eight and

873
00:43:07,880 --> 00:43:12,160
Speaker 3: three against the spread. It includes the postseason, but you

874
00:43:12,239 --> 00:43:14,640
Speaker 3: know McVeigh has been good in primetime, fifteen ten and

875
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 3: one against the spread in primetime, good on the road,

876
00:43:17,560 --> 00:43:20,080
Speaker 3: twenty four and eighteen on the road as a road dog,

877
00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:23,239
Speaker 3: eight and three against the spread, and eighteen twelve and

878
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:26,399
Speaker 3: one against the spread in division. And then Kyle Shanahan, Tom,

879
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:29,120
Speaker 3: you know exactly what I'm going to say. Shanahan as

880
00:43:29,160 --> 00:43:32,399
Speaker 3: a home favorite is absolutely someone to bet against at home.

881
00:43:32,760 --> 00:43:36,440
Speaker 3: He's fifteen twenty two and one against the spread as

882
00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:39,200
Speaker 3: a favorite, seventeen twenty six and one against the spread,

883
00:43:39,239 --> 00:43:43,120
Speaker 3: and as a home favorite seven fifteen and one against

884
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:47,320
Speaker 3: the spread on the money line, eleven eleven and twelve

885
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:49,600
Speaker 3: as a home favorite, which is good for a fifty

886
00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:55,160
Speaker 3: percent return on investment per per bet Labs. And for me,

887
00:43:55,520 --> 00:43:57,840
Speaker 3: this game comes down in the x's and o's. It

888
00:43:57,920 --> 00:44:00,280
Speaker 3: comes down to the Rams defensive line against the forty

889
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:02,960
Speaker 3: nine Ers offensive line. That offensive line is in a

890
00:44:03,040 --> 00:44:06,280
Speaker 3: really bad spot. Left tackle Trent Williams is almost certainly

891
00:44:06,400 --> 00:44:10,080
Speaker 3: out for the game with an ankle injury. Center Daniel

892
00:44:10,200 --> 00:44:12,960
Speaker 3: Brun's Goal is yet to play this year with a

893
00:44:13,000 --> 00:44:16,040
Speaker 3: hamstring injury. He didn't even practice last week, so I

894
00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:19,719
Speaker 3: don't think he's close to suiting up. So with the

895
00:44:19,800 --> 00:44:22,720
Speaker 3: forty nine Ers missing their two most important offensive linemen,

896
00:44:23,400 --> 00:44:25,040
Speaker 3: I think that puts him in a really bad spot

897
00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:29,600
Speaker 3: against defensive tackle Aaron Donald, who I think could just destroy.

898
00:44:29,680 --> 00:44:31,640
Speaker 3: And the forty nine Ers offense is built around their

899
00:44:31,680 --> 00:44:33,800
Speaker 3: running game, right they're number three in the league with

900
00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:36,759
Speaker 3: a fifty three point four percent rush rate, but the

901
00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:39,680
Speaker 3: Rams defense is number one in rush EPA like, I

902
00:44:39,719 --> 00:44:41,560
Speaker 3: don't think the forty nine Ers are going to be

903
00:44:41,640 --> 00:44:43,719
Speaker 3: able to run the way that they want to run

904
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:47,319
Speaker 3: against the Rams front, and they could struggle in pass

905
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:52,279
Speaker 3: protection too without their two top offensive linemen. So given

906
00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:54,239
Speaker 3: how good he is as a blocker, we might see

907
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:56,560
Speaker 3: tight end George Kittle stay in a little bit more

908
00:44:56,640 --> 00:44:59,279
Speaker 3: to pass protect, which, like in theory, that's good, but

909
00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 3: in reality, that means one of your best receivers isn't

910
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:04,640
Speaker 3: out there running routes, and that's a bad thing overall.

911
00:45:04,800 --> 00:45:07,359
Speaker 3: So I think the Rams have a significant edge over

912
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:09,400
Speaker 3: the forty nine ers in the trench matchup. We have

913
00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:12,879
Speaker 3: them as the number two defensive line. The offensive line

914
00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:16,279
Speaker 3: for the forty nine Ers ranked number eighteen. So if

915
00:45:16,280 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 3: the forty nine Ers can't run and if they struggle

916
00:45:18,680 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 3: to pass protect for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, they have basically

917
00:45:22,719 --> 00:45:25,520
Speaker 3: nothing going for them on offense. And we saw what

918
00:45:25,600 --> 00:45:27,680
Speaker 3: that looked like last week, right when they scored just

919
00:45:27,719 --> 00:45:30,719
Speaker 3: ten points against the Broncos on Sunday Night Football. This

920
00:45:30,960 --> 00:45:34,560
Speaker 3: line was Rams point five in the offseason, and I

921
00:45:34,800 --> 00:45:37,680
Speaker 3: still think that if they shouldn't be favored at worse,

922
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:39,200
Speaker 3: this should be a pick them. I don't think we've

923
00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 3: seen enough in the past three weeks to justify the

924
00:45:41,840 --> 00:45:44,239
Speaker 3: move from point five to plus two and a half.

925
00:45:45,400 --> 00:45:47,440
Speaker 1: I'm fully with you on this one. I am all

926
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:50,360
Speaker 1: boy the Rams train, as I said, But Colin, I

927
00:45:50,440 --> 00:45:52,520
Speaker 1: know there aren't too many props out for this one

928
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:54,399
Speaker 1: just yet. But is there any way that you're looking

929
00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:55,480
Speaker 1: at to attack this game?

930
00:45:56,239 --> 00:45:58,080
Speaker 2: I mean, that's why I always run it through the

931
00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:01,120
Speaker 2: simulation engine first and then see there's any opportunities.

932
00:46:01,360 --> 00:46:02,680
Speaker 4: I'm guessing it won't find.

933
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:05,640
Speaker 2: Like I mean, given where the line is at now,

934
00:46:06,080 --> 00:46:09,400
Speaker 2: it probably won't identify any slam dunk markets to attack.

935
00:46:10,320 --> 00:46:13,440
Speaker 2: As stated previously, that's just because there aren't many markets

936
00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:16,360
Speaker 2: available in general, and so this is going to be

937
00:46:16,440 --> 00:46:18,839
Speaker 2: one where as we get closer to Sunday night, as

938
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:21,880
Speaker 2: more markets come online, I'm going to be checking that

939
00:46:22,160 --> 00:46:24,000
Speaker 2: far more often to see if there's any kind of

940
00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:26,680
Speaker 2: misalignment in any of the prices where I can get

941
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:28,040
Speaker 2: down on exactly.

942
00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:29,280
Speaker 4: Everything that you've just described.

943
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:33,800
Speaker 2: One of the other virtues that are worthwhile is sometimes

944
00:46:33,840 --> 00:46:35,880
Speaker 2: it is worth it to be a little bit more patient,

945
00:46:36,320 --> 00:46:39,080
Speaker 2: and if you have a thesis, you don't need to

946
00:46:39,160 --> 00:46:42,479
Speaker 2: bet it immediately. It often behooves you to wait until

947
00:46:42,600 --> 00:46:45,600
Speaker 2: more markets open up and you can identify those mispricings.

948
00:46:45,680 --> 00:46:48,279
Speaker 2: So don't feel like you have to be compelled to

949
00:46:48,360 --> 00:46:51,360
Speaker 2: bet it immediately. You can benefit from a little bit

950
00:46:51,440 --> 00:46:53,720
Speaker 2: of patients and wait for some of these additional markets

951
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:55,719
Speaker 2: to come online, kind of like a snake in the

952
00:46:55,800 --> 00:46:57,040
Speaker 2: grass waiting to stray.

953
00:46:58,080 --> 00:47:02,239
Speaker 3: I'm going to not push back to what Colin just said,

954
00:47:02,320 --> 00:47:05,919
Speaker 3: but like add to it, like supplement it to where

955
00:47:06,000 --> 00:47:08,080
Speaker 3: I think there can be sort of the tiered approach

956
00:47:08,640 --> 00:47:11,960
Speaker 3: where the markets that like, the best time to bet

957
00:47:12,040 --> 00:47:15,560
Speaker 3: a market, generally speaking is when it first comes open,

958
00:47:15,760 --> 00:47:19,040
Speaker 3: like that is when it will be the softest, and so, uh,

959
00:47:19,480 --> 00:47:23,480
Speaker 3: if you like betting on spread total money line, I

960
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:27,400
Speaker 3: think it's earlier, Like earlier is better for betting on

961
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:30,799
Speaker 3: that if you if you actually have an edge there,

962
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:35,840
Speaker 3: and then as other markets come open, you can continue

963
00:47:35,960 --> 00:47:39,960
Speaker 3: to employ your thesis in attacking the other markets. So

964
00:47:40,480 --> 00:47:42,759
Speaker 3: and I will say, you know, like if you this

965
00:47:42,920 --> 00:47:45,200
Speaker 3: is sort of like getting into like the practicality of

966
00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:49,800
Speaker 3: like how you sports bet. If you attack only the

967
00:47:50,000 --> 00:47:54,440
Speaker 3: alternative markets, like that will flag pretty quickly to a

968
00:47:54,480 --> 00:47:58,080
Speaker 3: sports book that like not necessarily that you are sharp,

969
00:47:58,560 --> 00:48:01,239
Speaker 3: but that like you are not square, that like you

970
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:05,919
Speaker 3: are looking at things outside of what the ordinary better

971
00:48:06,280 --> 00:48:09,279
Speaker 3: looks at, and so like you will need to have

972
00:48:09,719 --> 00:48:13,239
Speaker 3: some spreads and totals and money lines in there. It

973
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:17,480
Speaker 3: can't be all props and all alternate lines, or they

974
00:48:17,600 --> 00:48:20,680
Speaker 3: might limit you or just shut you down entirely. So

975
00:48:21,160 --> 00:48:24,360
Speaker 3: I think it's probably like the tiered approach of betting

976
00:48:24,520 --> 00:48:28,520
Speaker 3: throughout the week as the value presents itself in various markets.

977
00:48:29,080 --> 00:48:32,080
Speaker 1: There's the other factor there with betting the market early,

978
00:48:32,239 --> 00:48:35,280
Speaker 1: as it's wing into the softest you get the advantage

979
00:48:35,320 --> 00:48:37,600
Speaker 1: of the softest market, but the disadvantage of the least

980
00:48:37,600 --> 00:48:41,040
Speaker 1: amount of information. Right there's anything that can happen between

981
00:48:41,600 --> 00:48:45,000
Speaker 1: Sunday night and the next week, Guys getting hurt in practice,

982
00:48:45,080 --> 00:48:47,640
Speaker 1: injury reports coming out from guys that we are waiting on,

983
00:48:47,719 --> 00:48:50,640
Speaker 1: and obviously, you know, if you're waiting for the Thursday

984
00:48:50,680 --> 00:48:53,080
Speaker 1: night game with Tua and it looks like he just

985
00:48:53,160 --> 00:48:55,480
Speaker 1: left the game with the concussion, you're not gonna go

986
00:48:55,560 --> 00:48:57,680
Speaker 1: ahead and bet that Thursday night line before you get

987
00:48:57,719 --> 00:49:01,200
Speaker 1: that information. But with eyes and things that can happen

988
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:03,080
Speaker 1: over the course of the week, it is that drawback

989
00:49:03,080 --> 00:49:04,560
Speaker 1: and you have to make that balance where you want

990
00:49:04,600 --> 00:49:04,800
Speaker 1: to do it.

991
00:49:06,000 --> 00:49:10,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think I think that's right. I

992
00:49:11,080 --> 00:49:14,600
Speaker 3: would say that, Yeah, the information, there's like the wide

993
00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:18,360
Speaker 3: range right to where if there's not much information that

994
00:49:18,480 --> 00:49:21,400
Speaker 3: you are waiting on for a game, then it probably

995
00:49:21,480 --> 00:49:24,080
Speaker 3: makes sense to bet it early. If there is a

996
00:49:24,160 --> 00:49:27,440
Speaker 3: lot of information that you're waiting on, you still might

997
00:49:27,560 --> 00:49:30,080
Speaker 3: be able to bet it early, but you might still

998
00:49:30,120 --> 00:49:32,120
Speaker 3: want to think about the way in which you're doing

999
00:49:32,200 --> 00:49:36,400
Speaker 3: it to try to leverage the uncertainty that is in

1000
00:49:36,520 --> 00:49:37,080
Speaker 3: that market.

1001
00:49:37,840 --> 00:49:40,680
Speaker 1: Indeed, and also the big thing that has changed from

1002
00:49:40,719 --> 00:49:43,360
Speaker 1: betting over the last two years to betting now. Of course,

1003
00:49:43,920 --> 00:49:45,520
Speaker 1: the last two years it was really hard to bet

1004
00:49:45,560 --> 00:49:48,160
Speaker 1: early because you never knew what was going to happen

1005
00:49:48,200 --> 00:49:50,759
Speaker 1: on Saturday night when it came to guys being out

1006
00:49:50,800 --> 00:49:53,440
Speaker 1: with the rona for the week. And that's finally behind this.

1007
00:49:53,560 --> 00:49:55,439
Speaker 1: Now I do not miss those betting days.

1008
00:49:55,800 --> 00:49:59,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, Now it just gets marked as illness YEP,

1009
00:50:00,000 --> 00:50:00,640
Speaker 3: injury report.

1010
00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:02,800
Speaker 1: Yeah all right, but that is going to do it

1011
00:50:02,920 --> 00:50:05,400
Speaker 1: for us here, guys, Colin, thank you so much for

1012
00:50:05,520 --> 00:50:07,640
Speaker 1: coming on today one more time. For everybody. Where can

1013
00:50:07,640 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 1: they find you in the great work that you're doing

1014
00:50:09,239 --> 00:50:10,200
Speaker 1: around the internet.

1015
00:50:10,440 --> 00:50:12,799
Speaker 2: You can find you can find me on Twitter at

1016
00:50:13,120 --> 00:50:16,359
Speaker 2: the handle of adj baseline. And then if you want

1017
00:50:16,400 --> 00:50:18,560
Speaker 2: to take a look at the tool yourself, which is

1018
00:50:18,640 --> 00:50:21,719
Speaker 2: currently free to use, you can go to betscope dot

1019
00:50:21,840 --> 00:50:25,680
Speaker 2: io and I run all of your thess and through

1020
00:50:25,719 --> 00:50:28,920
Speaker 2: our recommendation engine to surface the best markets.

1021
00:50:28,640 --> 00:50:30,799
Speaker 4: That you should be attacking for all of your best.

1022
00:50:31,680 --> 00:50:34,120
Speaker 1: Thank you once again so much for coming on today.

1023
00:50:34,160 --> 00:50:37,239
Speaker 1: The Betscope tool was very fascinating. I am excited to

1024
00:50:37,280 --> 00:50:40,000
Speaker 1: put it to good use in my betting, but for now,

1025
00:50:40,120 --> 00:50:43,200
Speaker 1: for Colin, Matt and myself, Tom, that is going to

1026
00:50:43,280 --> 00:50:45,839
Speaker 1: do it for us. Best of luck this weekend, guys,

1027
00:50:45,920 --> 00:50:48,959
Speaker 1: don't forget. If you want to bet, go to BETMGM

1028
00:50:49,120 --> 00:50:51,480
Speaker 1: dot com, sign up for an account today. Use the

1029
00:50:51,520 --> 00:50:53,799
Speaker 1: promo code Betting Pros when you sign up and you'll

1030
00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:56,919
Speaker 1: get a one thousand dollars risk free bet. And once again,

1031
00:50:57,040 --> 00:51:01,360
Speaker 1: thanks and congratulations to Matthew Derek on winning our signed

1032
00:51:01,400 --> 00:51:04,600
Speaker 1: Joe mix in Jersey. That's gonna do it for us, folks,

1033
00:51:04,640 --> 00:51:06,520
Speaker 1: and we will see you next episode.

1034
00:51:07,920 --> 00:51:08,640
Speaker 4: H m

1035
00:51:12,320 --> 00:51:18,840
Speaker 1: Hm hm