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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 3: Hello, Welcome to the Action Network podcast UFC Betting Preview.

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Speaker 3: I'm Sean Zerulo, joined today by Billy Worred to help

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Speaker 3: you break down this weekend's UFC car give you our

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Speaker 3: best bets, favorite underdogs, top props and more. And if

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Speaker 3: you'd like to tail some of the bets that we

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Speaker 3: discuss on today's show, make sure to find the quick

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Speaker 3: slip blanks both any podcasts or the video description and

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Speaker 3: go to Action network dot com slash bet now thirteen

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Speaker 3: fight card for UFC Atlanta way and just got underway

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Speaker 3: as we're talking. If there's any notable misses while we're

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Speaker 3: recording the show, we'll be sure to let you know.

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Speaker 3: Hopefully not main event. Kamaro Usman around plus two to

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Speaker 3: thirty on the money line, pretty big price for the

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Speaker 3: former champion against Joaquin Buckley at minus two to eighty five.

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Speaker 3: Fight around plus one ten to go to a decision,

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Speaker 3: minus one thirty five to end inside the distance. Wanted

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Speaker 3: to bet Usman here, Billy, but I feel like this

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Speaker 3: is the exact spot with the age differential that I

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Speaker 3: always highlight where it's a trap betting the underdog because

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Speaker 3: Usman is seven years older. Nies seemed to have gone.

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Speaker 3: Has not fought since October twenty twenty three when he

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Speaker 3: went up to middleweight to fight Hamzad. Very competitive in

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Speaker 3: that fight, and frankly, if that fight had been five rounds,

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Speaker 3: he may have ultimately won it because it seemed like

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Speaker 3: his cardio was coming on right as Hamzatz was starting

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Speaker 3: to fade a little bit. As I said, has not

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Speaker 3: fought since October twenty twenty three. His prior fight was

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Speaker 3: it was the third fight rematch in a title match

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Speaker 3: against Leon Edwards. Didn't look great in that rematch after

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Speaker 3: dominating of their second fight, which was the fight just

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Speaker 3: before where Usman was knocked out via headcake, but did

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Speaker 3: go four for fifteen on takedowns in that Lion rematch,

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Speaker 3: so at least he did proactively wrestle. Obviously was not

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Speaker 3: going to wrestle as much against Hamzat went five or

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Speaker 3: twelve ten minutes of control in that first fight. I

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Speaker 3: do think Lusman needs to Wrestle or Buckley here in

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Speaker 3: order to win, and if he does, I think he's

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Speaker 3: capable of winning more of a control based decision. I

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Speaker 3: think Buckley is the more dangerous striker, the more diverse striker.

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Speaker 3: Usman wats of ones and twos. I don't know if

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Speaker 3: he's going to hurt Buckley on the feet or be

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Speaker 3: able to put him away. I do think Buckley is

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Speaker 3: the likelier finisher of the parrot, but the question is

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Speaker 3: just how much does Usman shoot and how much success

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Speaker 3: does he have in terms of keeping Buckley down. I

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Speaker 3: should note you know Buckley hasn't fought a ton of wrestlers.

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Speaker 3: He did do a good job against Colby, going back

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Speaker 3: a little bit further against Amavov, and also against Albert

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Speaker 3: de Ryev. I thought his scrambling and his ability to

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Speaker 3: get up in those fights was relatively impressed. Not nearly

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Speaker 3: the same level or not not the same level of

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Speaker 3: wrestling as Usman, but still pretty decent wrestlers in a

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Speaker 3: decent test for him overall. So ultimately the age differential

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Speaker 3: mortever striking more finishing upside. I do think Buckley is

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Speaker 3: a justified favorite, despite viewing Usman as the better grappler,

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Speaker 3: with more grappling and top time upside, So the two

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Speaker 3: ways I want to bet this fight either Usman by

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Speaker 3: decision of plus five to fifty. I think he's likelier

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Speaker 3: to win a decision of the well, not necessarily likelier

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Speaker 3: to win a decision of the pair, but I do

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Speaker 3: think if he wins, it is likely to be by decision.

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Speaker 3: I made his decision line about plus three ninety. You

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Speaker 3: can bet that at plus five to fifty. The alternative

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Speaker 3: option is to bet an all double chance prop with

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Speaker 3: Usman by decision or Buckley. Ko I projected that at

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Speaker 3: minus one forty. You can bet it at minus one thirty. So, Billy,

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Speaker 3: I know you've kind of similar thoughts on this fight

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Speaker 3: with regard to Usman controlling the championship rounds, potentially winning

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Speaker 3: this fight down the show stretch. Do you think he

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Speaker 3: could play out similarly to the Hamzad fight where Buckley

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Speaker 3: is hurting him early and then Usman sort of flips

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Speaker 3: the momentum in the second or third rounds. If that

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Speaker 3: is the case, do you like Usman is a live

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Speaker 3: bet in this matchup as well?

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Speaker 1: It's funny we arrived at the same conclusions, but I

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Speaker 1: think we took a totally different path to get there.

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Speaker 1: Because I came into this one, I was like, how

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Speaker 1: am I gonna bet on Joaquin Buckley to kill this

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Speaker 1: old man in a fist fight on Saturday? And the

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Speaker 1: more I looked at I just I couldn't feel confident

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Speaker 1: enough about Buckley in any way at his price. The

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Speaker 1: reason for me is that the come up for Buckley,

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Speaker 1: like what really separated him and made him stand out

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Speaker 1: was when he started offensively wrestling. Like in his early

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Speaker 1: fights in the UFC, he was about a five hundred

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Speaker 1: fighter just banging it out on the feet with people.

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Speaker 1: And sure he can knock out Impa Kasagane and Jordan Wright,

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Speaker 1: but he also got knocked out by you know, Alessio

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Speaker 1: di Cheriko, Chris Curtis, Neserdinimovov pieced him up obviously, all middleweights,

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Speaker 1: which is a little bit different. He's better at welterweight,

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Speaker 1: but when he is the hammer with the wrestling, it

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Speaker 1: goes really really well for him. When he wrestles defensively, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: he can do it against guys like Colby, we haven't

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Speaker 1: really seen him pushed against, you know, a big, strong,

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Speaker 1: athletic wrestler anywhere near their prime. Not that we're getting

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Speaker 1: that with Kamaru, but like still probably the stiffest wrestling

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Speaker 1: test that he's faced maybe ever in his UFC career,

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Speaker 1: Like I don't know who else you would say on

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Speaker 1: his record provides that kind of challenge. So, long story short,

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Speaker 1: Buckley is basically a five hundred fighter when he doesn't

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Speaker 1: get a takedown, and I don't think he's gonna be

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Speaker 1: able to take down Usman. You know, maybe he'll just

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Speaker 1: blast through one early and Usman gets right back up.

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Speaker 1: But I don't think he's going to meaningfully score with

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Speaker 1: the grappling, but he might knock him out right like

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Speaker 1: it's you know, he's pretty much a coin flip. I

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Speaker 1: think to knock him out in the early round. Buckley

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Speaker 1: does cut a ton of weight, though probably not the

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Speaker 1: best cardio, especially at welterweight. And we haven't seen him

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Speaker 1: for five rounds, have we, Because yeah, Covington was scheduled

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Speaker 1: five rounds, but it ended in the third, so kind

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Speaker 1: of an unknown there. So even though I took a

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Speaker 1: very different path, I'm with you that Usman late is

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Speaker 1: how I want to play this. I'm looking at the

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Speaker 1: four or five decision at plus three ninety instead of

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Speaker 1: just the decision at plus five fifty. You know, maybe

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Speaker 1: Buckley gets that tired and gases out in the championship rounds.

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Speaker 1: It's not a huge you know, I'm fine with yours.

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Speaker 1: I think it's pretty much the same idea. And then

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Speaker 1: my favorite bet, if you're gonna be awake. Why they're

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Speaker 1: starting this one so late despite it being on the

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Speaker 1: East Coast is beyond me because it's thirteen fights that

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Speaker 1: start at seven pm. But if you're gonna be awake

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Speaker 1: and watching that one, I'd rather just play it live

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Speaker 1: than any of the pre fight stuff.

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Speaker 3: Big live after round one for Usmann live after round two?

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Speaker 3: What's your what's your likeliest entry point? Do you think

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Speaker 3: they're just kind of feeling it out? You know, Buckley

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Speaker 3: wins round one, you're ready to go.

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Speaker 1: I think ideally it would be after round two because

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Speaker 1: that's when you cover most of the danger from Buckley.

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Speaker 1: But if we get Usman at plus six plus seven

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Speaker 1: hundred kind of at any point, that's worth a quarter

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Speaker 1: unit to me, you know, like anytime we get big

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Speaker 1: number on it, great, take it. Let's see what we

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Speaker 1: can do. So yeah, mostly by feel. I don't think

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Speaker 1: there's like a set time, And obviously it's always annoying

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Speaker 1: trying to time that, especially if Bluckley has a big

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Speaker 1: moment in the round, and then Usman gets to take

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Speaker 1: down or whatever. So do your best. I wish, I

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Speaker 1: wish I could tell you exactly ahead of time when

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Speaker 1: we're gonna live about something. But you know, it's a

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Speaker 1: tough sport to do it for.

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Speaker 3: Especially if Usman tries to, you know, strike it out

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Speaker 3: for a round, doesn't win the round, but hasn't necessarily

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Speaker 3: grappled yet. Like that's that's always a spot where I

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Speaker 3: like to enter on a fighter just because they haven't

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Speaker 3: shown what is their likeliest path. You may get a

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Speaker 3: bigger number as a result, Like you said, if you know,

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Speaker 3: he gets hurt but then lands a takedown, like the

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Speaker 3: liveline may not float up this highly because he's already

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Speaker 3: shown he can get the opponents of the ground. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: the live markets can be a little tricky. Not that

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Speaker 3: this is a binary fight, but given the early stylistic

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Speaker 3: matchup and Usman's tendency, I think now at this stage

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Speaker 3: of his career, to get hurt early in fights probably

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Speaker 3: the speed disadvantage he's likely to be at. Yeah, I

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Speaker 3: think a live entry probably best there, but it is

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Speaker 3: Ustman by decision at plus five to fifty or the

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Speaker 3: alternative double chance Usman decision Buckley Ko at minus one

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Speaker 3: thirty in two ways, I would bet that fight. Let's

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Speaker 3: move on to a fight of the night that co

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Speaker 3: made avent between Rose Namahunas at minus two fifty and

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Speaker 3: Miranda Maverick at plus two o five. This fight is

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Speaker 3: minus four fifty to go to a decision. I projected

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Speaker 3: this fight at minus six hundred to go to a decision,

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Speaker 3: So I do think there's value on the GTD prop.

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Speaker 3: But I also like Maverick. I made her money line

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Speaker 3: plus one seventy and I made her decision prop plus

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Speaker 3: two twenty. BILLI I know you agree betting Mirandom Maverick. Here,

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Speaker 3: you'll have the breakdown for this fight up on actionover

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Speaker 3: dot com. Go ahead and tell me why we arrived

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Speaker 3: at the same conclusion on the underdock.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I would probably make this fight even closer than

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Speaker 1: you would, just because Miranda Maverick fits the exact archetype

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Speaker 1: of the type of fighter that's given Rosemami in his trouble,

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Speaker 1: especially at one twenty five, but really throughout her career

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Speaker 1: where against bigger, stronger people who can grapple her. That's

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Speaker 1: where Rose has struggled. She's lost to Carlo Sparza twice.

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Speaker 1: We can debate the second one, but you know, pushed

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Speaker 1: her on by the wrestler, got taken down twice by

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Speaker 1: Jessica and Rodge and then almost retired with that slam,

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Speaker 1: although Rose came and said it like made her next

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Speaker 1: problems better. So I guess shout out to Jessica and

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Speaker 1: rod for saving Rosami and his career as far as again.

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Speaker 1: But then since she came up to one twenty five,

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Speaker 1: she's two and two. She's lost to Blanchefield and Nonan Furo,

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Speaker 1: both bigger, stronger women in the division, and her wins

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Speaker 1: are against Amanda Hebis, who is really also a strawweight,

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Speaker 1: So I don't know why they did that one at

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Speaker 1: one twenty five and Tracy Cortes, who took the fight

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Speaker 1: on like two days notice, had to cut her hair

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Speaker 1: off to make weight and completely gassed out in the

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Speaker 1: end of the or the championship round because it was

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Speaker 1: a five round fight. Yeah, I'm not sure why or

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Speaker 1: what the ceiling is for Rose at one twenty five.

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Speaker 1: She wasn't an especially big one hundred fifteen pounder, and

201
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Speaker 1: her best attribute is her volume striking and striking defense

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Speaker 1: where she moves really well. She's really slick on the

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Speaker 1: feet counter as well, but it just doesn't have any

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Speaker 1: pop at one twenty five, Like you don't see her

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Speaker 1: hurting people the same way and random. Maverick literally grew

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Speaker 1: up working on a farm and then was a varsity

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Speaker 1: wrestler on the boys team. So like just big, country, strong,

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Speaker 1: good grappling, not the most technical. But if she gets

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Speaker 1: on top of Rose, I don't see how no immunis

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Speaker 1: gets out. No immunis gives out a lot of control

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Speaker 1: time trying to play off her back anyway, even against

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Speaker 1: lesser grapplers, and Maverick is just again not super technical,

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Speaker 1: big strong, going to hold you there. I don't want

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Speaker 1: to go so far as to say I think Maverick

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Speaker 1: should be favored, but I'm I would probably make this

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Speaker 1: like a pick them. She's younger, stronger, the type of

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Speaker 1: fighter Rose struggles with. The only reason I'm less confident

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Speaker 1: in that is because Rose is gonna land more shots

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Speaker 1: on the feet, and then Raverick is probably gonna get

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Speaker 1: takedowns and we're gonna get some I think weird judging.

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Speaker 1: If Maverick gets a takedown with two minutes left in

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Speaker 1: the round that she was losing before that. Outside of that, though,

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Speaker 1: I think you know this should be about to pick

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Speaker 1: them plus two hundred on random, Maverick. I like your

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Speaker 1: angles too, like the decision is probably the most likely

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Speaker 1: way she wins it. But when you're getting better than

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Speaker 1: two to one, I don't want to get too greedy

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Speaker 1: because I'd be heartbroken if she gets a ground and

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Speaker 1: pound finish in the third round or whatever.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, yeah, I think you made most of the points

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Speaker 3: that I was planning on making. Just the size differential,

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Speaker 3: Maverick more natural one twenty five pounder, not the best wrestling,

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Speaker 3: but you know, Rose denied six of the eighteen down

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Speaker 3: attempts she faced from Blanchfield, she still gave up nine

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Speaker 3: minutes control time. When she does get put on bottom,

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Speaker 3: she's not great at getting up. Even her fights against

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Speaker 3: play Lee, she was getting put on bottom and then

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Speaker 3: held there for the entirety of rounds. She just does

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Speaker 3: not scramble up particularly well. And fighting at a higher

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Speaker 3: weight class, I don't think that's going to be any

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Speaker 3: easier to get up. One thing that really stood out

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Speaker 3: to me in these striking stats, obviously Maverick has faced

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Speaker 3: a lower level of competition, but at striking distance. This

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Speaker 3: does not include ground strikes. At striking distance, Maverick has

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Speaker 3: the higher strike differential one point seven versus zero point three. Granted,

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Speaker 3: Roses face a much higher level of competition, but I

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Speaker 3: don't think the striking is going to be as uncompetitive

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Speaker 3: as I may have initially expected, and in fact, something

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Speaker 3: else I want to point out. This is Rose's first

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Speaker 3: non mad event since twenty twenty three, and her second

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Speaker 3: since twenty twenty. In that fight against Minoon Fiora, she

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Speaker 3: got off to a slow start in a three round fight,

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Speaker 3: and I think that could potentially cost her here. We

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Speaker 3: see all the time fighters dialing back from five round

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Speaker 3: fights to three round fights. They're not as used as

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Speaker 3: starting out fast than that first round because they're more

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Speaker 3: accustomed to the pacing of a five round fight. It

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Speaker 3: cost her in the first round against fe Or I

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Speaker 3: think it could potentially cost her here if she's not

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Speaker 3: on the gas pedal right away. Obviously the second is

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Speaker 3: Sparza fight you brought up. There's been other instances where

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Speaker 3: Rose has just been a little bit too conservative on

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Speaker 3: the feet, just staring at her opponents and letting round

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Speaker 3: slip away. So yes, her biggest advantage in the fight

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Speaker 3: is likely her striking output. There is moments where she

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Speaker 3: doesn't put the output out there at all, So Maverick

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Speaker 3: I think as the grappling upside, but I actually expect

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Speaker 3: her to be a little bit more competitive by the

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Speaker 3: numbers at distance than I initially expected too. We'll see

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Speaker 3: if Rose is able to reverse some of those takedown

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Speaker 3: attempts and get on top. But I do think Maverick

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Speaker 3: the value side made her again plus one seventy, So

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Speaker 3: plus one eighty five or better I think would be

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Speaker 3: a solid money line play for me. Billy, I would

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Speaker 3: imagine you're willing to go a little bit lower since

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Speaker 3: you said you'd project this closer to pick them. Where

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Speaker 3: would you cut it off about plus one fifty?

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Speaker 1: Anywhere lower? Yeah, that's I mean, it's not going to

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Speaker 1: move that much, so it's kind of a moot point.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, anything I think better than plus one fifty

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Speaker 1: would be fine. To add on to your point about

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Speaker 1: the striking, I should say, I don't know if this

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Speaker 1: is still true, but when watching back one of Maverick's fight,

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Speaker 1: they gave out the stat that she was the shortest

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Speaker 1: flyway the roster or shortest women's flyway, which probably also

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Speaker 1: mean shortest flyway, which is why sometimes she looks awkward striking.

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Speaker 1: I think because of that range, her and Rose have

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Speaker 1: the same reach, so that I think also helps the

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Speaker 1: striking be a little bit more competitive because just you know,

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Speaker 1: you're not giving up that reach that she is used to.

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Speaker 1: Other point to your go to decision or win by

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Speaker 1: decision is they trained together before Mavericks fight with I

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Speaker 1: want to say Diany Barbosa, but they did a training

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Speaker 1: camp together before one of Randa Mavericks fights. We see

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Speaker 1: it a lot of times with training partners. They're both

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Speaker 1: a little bit more cautious. These are not the most

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Speaker 1: aggressive finishers to begin with, so if you dial up

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Speaker 1: the caution even harder on these two, I think that

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Speaker 1: does help this fight go all three rounds.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's minus four hundred, but I do

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Speaker 3: think it is a legitimate parlay piece at minus four hundred. Again,

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Speaker 3: I made it minus six hundred. There's another fight fighter

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Speaker 3: I'll get to at the end of his card I

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Speaker 3: think is a pretty safe parlay piece as well, So

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Speaker 3: that may be something I end up using founder of

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Speaker 3: our favorite underdogs in this card, and it'll let you

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Speaker 3: kick things off with Andre Petrowski at about plus one

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Speaker 3: fifty two best available price against Edmund Shabazian coming in

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Speaker 3: at minus onoeint eighty. This fight is minus two fifty

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Speaker 3: to end inside the distance. I do want to see

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Speaker 3: Shabazian's round one odds. Shabazian is plus two ten to

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Speaker 3: plus two seventy to win in round one. He's very

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Speaker 3: aggressive early, but he has a terrible gas tank. And

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Speaker 3: I think Petroski a great live bet after round one,

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Speaker 3: even though the markets are probably attuned to it and

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Speaker 3: probably are not going to give you as big of

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Speaker 3: a price as you likely deserve, because everybody knows that

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Speaker 3: Edmund Schebazian fades after five minutes, but Petroski live after five.

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Speaker 3: In addition to his odds to win in round three

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Speaker 3: seventeen to one for Petroski to win in round three,

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Speaker 3: his decision odds are plus four twenty. I may just

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Speaker 3: find a round three or decision prop, or play both

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Speaker 3: of those individually, but I'll certainly be waiting for a

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Speaker 3: live bet on Andre Petrowski. Billy, you're going in with

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Speaker 3: a brief fight ticket on Petroski, I to imagine you'll

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Speaker 3: target him live. Did I basically set up the way

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Speaker 3: this fight is going to play out Edmond early or

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Speaker 3: Petrosky late?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a extremely binary fight in like both

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Speaker 1: senses of how we talk about that, and one is

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Speaker 1: what you pointed out. Edmond Schabazian wins pretty much in

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Speaker 1: the first round or first round and a half or

333
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Speaker 1: not at all, where Petrowski since his weird couple of knockouts,

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Speaker 1: has won exclusively decisions, although I think he's got more

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Speaker 1: finishing upside than people give him credit for because those

336
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Speaker 1: decisions he had people just hanging on for dear life

337
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Speaker 1: from the bottom, which isn't totally his fault. I digress.

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00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:35,160
Speaker 1: Shavazian wins with his striking primarily, like I think he

339
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Speaker 1: might have one submission win in the UFC, and he

340
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Speaker 1: hurt the guy on the feet first before getting it,

341
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Speaker 1: and Petrowski wins exclusively through his grappling, So we have

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Speaker 1: early striker versus late grappler. If you look at Shabazim's

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Speaker 1: record when he's been taken down, he's been taken down

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Speaker 1: in five of his UFC fights. He has one in

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Speaker 1: four in those fights, so pretty much if you take

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Speaker 1: him down, you are going to win. And Petroski takes

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Speaker 1: everyone down. He's ad wrestler and BJJ black belt trains

348
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Speaker 1: at Henzo Gracie Philly with a bunch of dudes around

349
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Speaker 1: that size who can all wrestle really, really well, and

350
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Speaker 1: that's just what they do. So if you wanted to

351
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Speaker 1: hedge the Petroski play a little bit, I do think

352
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Speaker 1: Shabazi in in round one. I'm just a little bit

353
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Speaker 1: concerned about Petroski's chin. Ever since he knocked himself out

354
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Speaker 1: shooting into Jacob Malcolm's hip, which was weird, but other

355
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Speaker 1: than that, he's been fairly durable. If he can survive

356
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Speaker 1: or even just get it to the ground early against Shabazi,

357
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Speaker 1: and I think he's gonna cruise and look like a

358
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Speaker 1: pretty big favorite. So yes, Petrowsky late stuff makes some sense.

359
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Speaker 1: I could see Shabazi and fading even in the second

360
00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:41,719
Speaker 1: round with takedowns though, so I'm a little bit I'm

361
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Speaker 1: a little bit nervous that it doesn't go all the way.

362
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Speaker 1: To Shabazian's credit, He's gonna try to get up and

363
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Speaker 1: try to do stuff off his back. The problem with

364
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Speaker 1: that is it usually doesn't work for him, so he's

365
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Speaker 1: just taking risks and getting finished. But unlike the guy's

366
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Speaker 1: Petrowski fought, who just chose to lose slowly, right Like,

367
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Speaker 1: if I'm just holding on to you from bottom mount,

368
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Speaker 1: I'm just losing more slowly than if I try to

369
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Speaker 1: get up. Tchabazian will try to get up, it probably

370
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Speaker 1: won't work for him, which is where Petroski will get

371
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Speaker 1: sobs or ground and pound. But yeah, if we get

372
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Speaker 1: a better live number on Petrowski at any point, by

373
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Speaker 1: all means I would take it. As you said, I

374
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Speaker 1: think the market's kind of attuned to that not being

375
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Speaker 1: the way it's going to go. Maybe though, I mean,

376
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Speaker 1: if you got three or four books open, be ready

377
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Speaker 1: for all of them. You never know, you might you

378
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Speaker 1: might catch somebody who sees a few big shots from

379
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Speaker 1: Shabazi and doesn't adjust it appropriately.

380
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I feel like the live MMA markets has been

381
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Speaker 3: a little bit sharper as of late. I think they

382
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Speaker 3: are more aware of the cardio discrepancies and are shading

383
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Speaker 3: the lines a little bit more aggressively towards the sides

384
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Speaker 3: that people are away from the sides that people expect

385
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Speaker 3: to bet. Move on to my favorite underdog in this card.

386
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Speaker 3: That would be Court McGee at plus two seventy five

387
00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:56,119
Speaker 3: against Michael Kisa Old guy fight. Kius is thirty seven,

388
00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:59,359
Speaker 3: Court is forty. Ki has a coming off of a

389
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Speaker 3: win over Max Griffin, where going into the fight some

390
00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:06,760
Speaker 3: concerns about Kisa's durability at his age. Seems like, you know,

391
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Speaker 3: chance that he may not be super interested in fighting anymore.

392
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Speaker 3: But so few things that I like about Court in

393
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Speaker 3: this fight relative to the Griffin fight. First off, his

394
00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:18,840
Speaker 3: control rate. When you look at the amount that Port

395
00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:24,120
Speaker 3: McGee has controlled grappling positions throughout his career, I think

396
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Speaker 3: he's going to be competitive here in the grappling with Kissa.

397
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Speaker 3: May get stuck in his back butt, I think he

398
00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:31,399
Speaker 3: will get up and force Kisa to fight on the

399
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Speaker 3: feet again. Eighty four percent control rate for McGee throughout

400
00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:40,399
Speaker 3: his his UFC career, sixty nine percent for Kisa, Max

401
00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:42,920
Speaker 3: Griffin fifty one percent. I think there was a big

402
00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:46,040
Speaker 3: deficiency for Griffin that Kiyas was able to expose. I

403
00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:49,280
Speaker 3: don't think that necessarily exists to Port McGee. I think

404
00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:52,280
Speaker 3: he will get taken down, but I actually do expect

405
00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:54,840
Speaker 3: him to be able to recover to his feet, and

406
00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:57,560
Speaker 3: on the feet he fights at double the pace that

407
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Speaker 3: Kiyosa does. He lands five point five strikes per minute

408
00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:03,360
Speaker 3: Kise at two point eight. He's also been much more

409
00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:07,320
Speaker 3: efficient throughout his career, outlanding opponents by about one strike

410
00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:10,919
Speaker 3: per minute at distance, Kiyosa getting outstruck by nearly a

411
00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:13,880
Speaker 3: half a strike per minute. So my initial projection here

412
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Speaker 3: after factoring in public data about plus one to eighty

413
00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:20,920
Speaker 3: three on court, I would bet him down to about

414
00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:23,080
Speaker 3: plus two hundred. I also show value on both his

415
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:26,800
Speaker 3: decision and his submission prop. Looking at his submission history,

416
00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,119
Speaker 3: and Kisa tends to get caught in a lot of

417
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:35,040
Speaker 3: Atacanda's Brava chokes. Court does have a guillotine on his record,

418
00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:38,040
Speaker 3: but it's very early in his career. His other two

419
00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:40,800
Speaker 3: submissions an arm triangle and a room naked chokes, So

420
00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:42,159
Speaker 3: I'm not sure if he's going to be one of

421
00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:46,280
Speaker 3: those guys who catches Kisa coming in via submission, But

422
00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:48,919
Speaker 3: I do think he is capable of scrambling up and

423
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:51,119
Speaker 3: winning a decision, so I'd probably lean to his decision

424
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:53,560
Speaker 3: prop at five to one. I make that plus three fifty,

425
00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:56,119
Speaker 3: but I think a sub is always live when Michael

426
00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:58,080
Speaker 3: Kisa is going to be shooting for takedowns against the

427
00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:02,679
Speaker 3: guy who knows how to confidently counter grapple. Just seventy

428
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:04,920
Speaker 3: percent takedown defense for McGee his bruce. Like I said,

429
00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:06,480
Speaker 3: I do think he'll get taken down, but I do

430
00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:10,040
Speaker 3: expect him to get back up. So Court down to

431
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:13,320
Speaker 3: about plus two hundred, No, Lie, I bet for me

432
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:15,720
Speaker 3: here on a forty year old. They just can't do it.

433
00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:18,480
Speaker 3: I do think Kisa may have the better cardio, maybe

434
00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:20,200
Speaker 3: the slightly better cardio of the pair, but I think

435
00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:23,720
Speaker 3: Court is significantly more durable and likely to win inside

436
00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:26,800
Speaker 3: the distance. So, Billy, any thoughts on Michael Keysa against

437
00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:31,560
Speaker 3: Court McGee? Any interest in betting this fight for you?

438
00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:34,639
Speaker 1: I was leaning towards McGee anyway, You've mostly sold me

439
00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:37,360
Speaker 1: on a straight up play. John, I don't know. I'm assuming,

440
00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:39,359
Speaker 1: based on your comments here that you did not watch

441
00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:41,880
Speaker 1: the last Fight Pass Invitational a couple of weeks ago.

442
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 1: On UFC Fight Pass No, Michael Kassa was one of

443
00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:48,600
Speaker 1: the commentators and someone got caught in a ana condo

444
00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:50,760
Speaker 1: or a dars, which again I'm going to say, are

445
00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:52,520
Speaker 1: the same submission? Please don't yell at me in the

446
00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 1: YouTube comments. People were pretty nice last time, actually, but

447
00:21:56,960 --> 00:21:59,119
Speaker 1: someone got caught in one of those submissions and Kiasa

448
00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:00,880
Speaker 1: declared that he knows how to stop him though he's

449
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:04,600
Speaker 1: finally he's trained enough defense to that after getting caught

450
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 1: in like seventeen of those across ten years in the UFC,

451
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:10,800
Speaker 1: that he's fixed it. So he's plugged that hole. We

452
00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:13,400
Speaker 1: can't take Court mcge by submission because Kiosa finally got

453
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:16,480
Speaker 1: around to learning how to defend a submission that like.

454
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 1: And I'm not even trying to knock his jiu jitsu.

455
00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 1: He's a legitimately very good jiu jitsu guy with just

456
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 1: this weird glaring blind spot like a nes you know

457
00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,600
Speaker 1: boss in a video game with just the glowing red

458
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:30,960
Speaker 1: dars choke me sign on him. It's the weirdest thing.

459
00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 1: But it's over now, So no Court McGee by sub

460
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 1: I do like him straight up.

461
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:38,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, It's like Clay Gaita stickting his head into guillotines.

462
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:42,640
Speaker 3: He just can't not do it. So until he actually

463
00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:45,640
Speaker 3: stops one, I'll wait till I see it to actually

464
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:49,159
Speaker 3: believe it first. To quick Before we get to our

465
00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 3: top rops, quick message from our sponsor, Underdog, and you

466
00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:54,399
Speaker 3: can go yard all Baseball Season one with Underdog's Pick

467
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468
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470
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Speaker 3: be next to play. All you have to do is

471
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Speaker 3: down with the app and choose whether play will go

472
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:06,800
Speaker 3: higher or lower on one of their stats. You can

473
00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:09,119
Speaker 3: choose from things like home run strikeouts, the total bases,

474
00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:12,880
Speaker 3: significant strikes, and so much more. Once your picks feel good,

475
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:14,520
Speaker 3: you can play with as little as one dollar, and

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Speaker 3: if you get everything right, you could win up to

477
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Speaker 3: one thousand times your money. And since we're talking at

478
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:21,879
Speaker 3: UFC today, Billy, I know you have a couple of

479
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 3: angles for related angles on the will Maker and Mutino fight.

480
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:27,639
Speaker 3: Just why don't you go ahead and give me your

481
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 3: breakdown for that.

482
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:31,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love the option on Underdog to take both

483
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,879
Speaker 1: sides of a fight, one that I really really liked

484
00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:36,520
Speaker 1: the first half of this one. I will say the

485
00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:39,679
Speaker 1: second half I'm slightly left competent in. But that is

486
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,920
Speaker 1: Malcolm Wellmaker higher than twenty six point five significant strikes.

487
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:46,119
Speaker 1: It's obviously a small sample side, but Chris Mautino takes

488
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:50,280
Speaker 1: over fifteen significant strikes per minute in the UFC. Most

489
00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 1: of that was against Shot O'Malley, where I believe he

490
00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:55,240
Speaker 1: set a record for the most strikes absorbed in a

491
00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 1: three round fight. The UFC doesn't make it very clear

492
00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 1: the records and three US five round fights, but if

493
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:03,680
Speaker 1: you look it up, I'm pretty sure that is the case.

494
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:06,879
Speaker 1: And then he followed that up and got standing tkoed

495
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:09,480
Speaker 1: by forty two year old Guido Coneti. But took twenty

496
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 1: eight significant strikes in that one, and all we need

497
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:14,159
Speaker 1: is twenty seven. And then the other side of that,

498
00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 1: you know, you could play with us a little bit.

499
00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 1: I think mutinio lower than sixteen point five significant strikes.

500
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 1: He's giving up three or four inches in height and reach,

501
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,760
Speaker 1: much much slower, much less talented than Malcolm Wellmaker took

502
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:27,960
Speaker 1: it on short notice. I don't think this one goes

503
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:30,679
Speaker 1: quite long enough for Mutino to land that many strikes

504
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:32,440
Speaker 1: unless he's able to get a takedown, which we have

505
00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:36,320
Speaker 1: never seen him do. So really like that one definitely

506
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:39,720
Speaker 1: start with the well Maker higher and then kind of

507
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:41,920
Speaker 1: build out from there, and if you want to do

508
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 1: any of that, you can download the Underdog app and

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510
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512
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Speaker 1: Action Network. He must be eighteen plus, nineteen plus in Alabama, Nebraska,

513
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Speaker 1: nineteen plus in Colorado for some games, one plus in Massachusetts,

514
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Speaker 1: in Arizona, and present in a state where Underdog Fantasy operates.

515
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Speaker 1: Terms supply void in Colorado, concern with your play called

516
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler or visit NCP gambling dot org.

517
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:16,359
Speaker 1: In Arizona called one eight hundred next step or texts

518
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:19,199
Speaker 1: next step to five three three four to two, and

519
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:21,160
Speaker 1: in New York called the twenty four to seven Hope

520
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 1: line at one eight seven seven Hope and Why or

521
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,359
Speaker 1: text hope and why, Sean. It looked like you might

522
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,199
Speaker 1: have been fact checking or confirming the stat about that

523
00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:32,399
Speaker 1: being the record. Do you know something about that? With

524
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:33,480
Speaker 1: Mutino and O'Malley.

525
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:36,480
Speaker 3: No, I wasn't able to confirm it, But three hundred

526
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 3: and eighteen significant strikes attempted by O'Malley in that fight

527
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 3: landed two hundred and thirty. Poor Mutino just an absolute

528
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 3: punching bag, and Herbdean decided to step in with about

529
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:49,119
Speaker 3: thirty seconds left. So if you had a fight to

530
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:52,720
Speaker 3: go to, decision longshot ticket there or O'Malley by decision,

531
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 3: likely pretty frustrated that Herbdean didn't step in earlier or

532
00:25:56,800 --> 00:26:00,439
Speaker 3: not at all, very very in between herbeam stop for

533
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:02,879
Speaker 3: usual five fights. We want to talk about from a

534
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:04,879
Speaker 3: prop perspective before we get you guys out of here

535
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:07,399
Speaker 3: with some best bets. A couple of long shot KO

536
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 3: props to start things off. Billy fight that you broke

537
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,720
Speaker 3: down a few weeks ago, Paul Craig against Rudolpho Blotto.

538
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 3: You're taking Craig by KO at fourteen to one. Just

539
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:20,240
Speaker 3: want to reiterate why you're going with the KO prop

540
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 3: as opposed to Craig by submission or any other iterations

541
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 3: in this way.

542
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:26,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna be super annoyed win this one wins

543
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 1: because it was plus twenty five hundred last time and

544
00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 1: now we're only getting plus fourteen hundred, which is fine.

545
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:35,439
Speaker 1: Paul Craig is a bad striker, but Paul Craig just

546
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 1: throws bombs, and Rudolpho Blato has no interest in striking

547
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:41,160
Speaker 1: defense at all. He just stands over this hand down.

548
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:43,399
Speaker 1: So yeah, we've got that. But also, Paul Craig can

549
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 1: get a TKO on the ground if he grapples. I

550
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:48,560
Speaker 1: think my pet theory here is Biloto is going to

551
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:50,920
Speaker 1: forget who he's fighting or like what the game plan

552
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,879
Speaker 1: should be and shoot because he normally does, like he

553
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:56,160
Speaker 1: takes Domos with his pony until land a couple punches

554
00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 1: and use that as a takedown opportunity, which against Paul

555
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:00,960
Speaker 1: Craig will just get you swept and you know, beat

556
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 1: up on the ground. Hopefully Craig gets a TKO, maybe

557
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:05,880
Speaker 1: breaks his arm and they just call it a TKO.

558
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:08,200
Speaker 1: Maybe he goes for some ground and pound. He does

559
00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:11,720
Speaker 1: ground and pound fairly effectively. And again it's plus fourteen hundred.

560
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:13,200
Speaker 1: So if you don't think any of that's gonna happen,

561
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 1: that's okay. You know, we need to t happen like

562
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 1: what six percent of the time roughly to make that

563
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:21,280
Speaker 1: a PROFITABLET seven percent, So a little bit of a

564
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 1: fun sprinkle. I am annoyed we're not getting the twenty

565
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 1: five to one odds we did before, but it is

566
00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:29,520
Speaker 1: what it is. You also have a long shot knockout prop,

567
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 1: though not quite as long but close. Yeah.

568
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 3: Just first, regarding the Craig Blota fight, I need to

569
00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 3: check the ends by KO odds because I show value

570
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:40,680
Speaker 3: on Blotto KO. I make that minus one forty five

571
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:43,879
Speaker 3: and you can bet minus one twenty five out there. So,

572
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:47,600
Speaker 3: considering Craig is a long shot probability to win by knockout,

573
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 3: I'd imagine the fight ends by KO can't be higher

574
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:54,600
Speaker 3: than minus fifty, so that that's certainly a bet that

575
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 3: would interest me between Craig and Blotto, removing Greig's submission probability,

576
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:02,680
Speaker 3: removing the decision ability, just getting either guy to win

577
00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:06,120
Speaker 3: by KO. They defense strikes Craig get forty three percent

578
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:09,720
Speaker 3: and Belotto at forty six percent, respectively. So do you think.

579
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:13,959
Speaker 1: Somebody defenseris how you can that? Yeah? Very fair, I

580
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 1: know what you mean, but the way you said it

581
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:18,120
Speaker 1: implied a lot more defense than we're going to see.

582
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, both guys, and you know, typically I talked about

583
00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 3: like combined striking accuracy and defense typically average out to

584
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:30,439
Speaker 3: one hundred percent. Belotto at one oh eight a lot

585
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 3: does that one to eight sixty two percent striking accuracy,

586
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 3: forty six percent defense. Paul Craig is at eighty seven.

587
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:39,160
Speaker 3: It's a little bit tragic forty four percent accuracy, forty

588
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 3: three percent defense. But as Billy said, he does swing

589
00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:45,800
Speaker 3: white hard moving up back up to uh light heavyweight

590
00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:46,480
Speaker 3: here right, So.

591
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:47,840
Speaker 1: See probably good?

592
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 3: I think, yeah, you think ultimately now positive?

593
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 1: Well, I mean one, not cutting so much weight, but

594
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 1: too it's just a somewhat less talented division. Like he

595
00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 1: went down to one eighty five and they immediately gave

596
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 1: him two extremely talented grapplers and arguably three with Kyle Bohio,

597
00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 1: where like Paul Craig is going to try to catch

598
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 1: you with his grappling, and he's not going to do

599
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 1: that against Bo Nickel or Brendan Allen. Although there is

600
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 1: an argument I've unfortunately went back and watched that fight,

601
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 1: you could make a case that he actually beat bow Nickel,

602
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 1: Like they pretty much went even on strikes for what

603
00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 1: was like a horribly boring striking fight, and Paul Craig

604
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 1: landed almost as many and pretty much every round. Neither

605
00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:31,440
Speaker 1: of them landed hard Like in retrospect, looking back, you

606
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:34,000
Speaker 1: could say he won that one, but that's neither here

607
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:35,840
Speaker 1: nor there. It was a horrible match up for Paul

608
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 1: Craig obviously, because he wasn't going to get it to

609
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:39,360
Speaker 1: the ground in two of five. There's a lot of

610
00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:40,480
Speaker 1: guys you're going to get to the ground.

611
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I bet Craig at six to one

612
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:45,440
Speaker 3: in that fight against Nickel small, but you know, it

613
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 3: actually felt like a justified bat in hindsight, with people

614
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:52,959
Speaker 3: debating pretty close fifty to fifty rounds, Nichol was probably

615
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 3: never not going to get that decision. You need somebody

616
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 3: to actually finish him or beat him definitive definitively like

617
00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:01,440
Speaker 3: Reynard Ritter, in order to raise his prospect status. We'll

618
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,600
Speaker 3: see how Nickel bounces back from that loss. The one

619
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 3: long shot knockout prop I was targeting on this card

620
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 3: was Alonzo Menifield at about plus twelve hundred down to

621
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:14,360
Speaker 3: about plus eight hundred, which is where I have it projected.

622
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:16,840
Speaker 3: His odds winning round one or nineteen to one. Is

623
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 3: odds win by round one knockout are nearly thirty to one.

624
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:23,080
Speaker 3: I think he's always live for a quick finish. He's

625
00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 3: just at a severe size disadvantage and age disadvantage against

626
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 3: umar psi Ci four inches tallers seven inch reach advantage,

627
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:34,680
Speaker 3: but he's also eight years younger. That said, this is

628
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:37,320
Speaker 3: light heavyweight. Light heavyweights ten to age a little bit

629
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 3: more gracefully than fighters in other divisions. But I do

630
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 3: think see once he starts rappling, Manifield's gasagg is going

631
00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 3: to get drained and his power is likely going to mainish.

632
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 3: So Menifield pre fight, I do you think his money

633
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 3: line value? Probably not something I'm going to bet, but

634
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:54,120
Speaker 3: I do make him closer to plus four or fifty.

635
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 3: I think if you're betting him, I would bet either

636
00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 3: his knockout prop or his early finish props at big

637
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:02,680
Speaker 3: long shot odds, and then he could probably find or

638
00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:07,480
Speaker 3: potentially find a better live number on UMERC after round one. Billily,

639
00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 3: any thoughts on the Menifield finish props or anything you

640
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 3: like for seeing that fight.

641
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:16,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was initially surprised by how wide the line

642
00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 1: was because like Umarci pretty you know, unproven at the

643
00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 1: UFC level, fought some relatively weaker competition that I remember

644
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:26,920
Speaker 1: that Alonso Menifield like really almost lost to the debuting

645
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 1: like D two basketball player or whatever who took the

646
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 1: fight on a couple of days notice up a bunch

647
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 1: of weight. I was like, all right, it might we

648
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:35,680
Speaker 1: might be done on Alonso Manifield. Like if this was

649
00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 1: Manifield even a couple of years ago, I'd be racing

650
00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 1: to bet his price tag right now. But that one

651
00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:45,240
Speaker 1: just really wrecked my faith in him. You know, like

652
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 1: his biggest or his best attributes is being big and strong,

653
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 1: and that's not quite enough all the time, especially when

654
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 1: the athleticism starts to go so nothing for me. I

655
00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 1: see how you got there, but I'm I just can't

656
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:02,240
Speaker 1: do it given what we saw from Minifield most recently.

657
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 3: Absolutely not something I'm super excited about, not something I

658
00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:08,400
Speaker 3: made even bet ultimately, but did just have to.

659
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 1: Share twelve to one like I shouldn't. Sorry, I sounded

660
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 1: like I was criticizing your twelve to one underdog pick

661
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:16,080
Speaker 1: after just complaining that people criticize my fourteen to one.

662
00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 1: Obviously it's twelve to one, go ahead, like, you know

663
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 1: that's not it doesn't have to be super likely, but.

664
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:22,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, how wrong could you be? But it's also not

665
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 3: something I was like, oh man, I have to bet this.

666
00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 3: The value is there, I think it's clear. I also

667
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 3: wanted to shout out Manafield specifically because, aside from Court McGee,

668
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:35,360
Speaker 3: he was the one underdog value play that I saw

669
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 3: this week. Based on the line, again, I made a

670
00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:39,720
Speaker 3: plus four fifty. I don't think it's a huge value

671
00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 3: bet and sees also undefeated. I don't generally like betting

672
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:48,320
Speaker 3: on guys who are undefeated to get finished until unless

673
00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:51,560
Speaker 3: I have a particularly confident read about it, such as

674
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:54,920
Speaker 3: Tiporio over Max Alloway to Halloway never having been finished.

675
00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 3: I was like, yeah, but so unless I have a

676
00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 3: particularly confident read guy who's never been finished actually getting finished,

677
00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 3: or I see durability or cardio concerns that may cause

678
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 3: them to get finished, I don't necessarily like betting on

679
00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 3: those outcomes to happen. So it's there. The values there,

680
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:15,000
Speaker 3: we'll see if I end up playing it. Finish props

681
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 3: that I probably will end up playing, or at least

682
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 3: trying to find an iteration to play this fight. Monster

683
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 3: Abdulmalik is a minus seven to seventy favorite over Cody Brundage.

684
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 3: Brundage can wrestle, but he has bad cardio and he

685
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:32,000
Speaker 3: quits in every fight that extends. He's zero to four

686
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:35,240
Speaker 3: in UFC fights that have gone past round one. He's

687
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:39,440
Speaker 3: also gotten some very fortunate refereeing, allowing him to recover

688
00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 3: against Julian Marquez. He also got to win over Jacob

689
00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:46,000
Speaker 3: Malcuhn who I poked him, and then a no contest

690
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 3: as well against Abdul Razak al Hassan after just completely

691
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 3: writhing on the ground from an illegal elbow. He's he's

692
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:57,560
Speaker 3: got the acting shops to go along with the wrestling skills.

693
00:33:57,600 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 3: But I think if this fight extends at all, Brundage

694
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:02,960
Speaker 3: gets finished by Abduama Leak, he may just get finished

695
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:05,920
Speaker 3: inside of round one of duable Leak, the much bigger

696
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:08,799
Speaker 3: athlete too in just tolerate eighted to reach advantage. His

697
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:12,320
Speaker 3: odds to win in round two are plus two eighty.

698
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 3: His odds to win in round three are plus eight fifty.

699
00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 3: So I may sprinkle try to structure those two props together,

700
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 3: obviously betting more on the round two prop. Or I

701
00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 3: think you could maybe mess around with abduam Leak in

702
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 3: some same game parlays. Let me just click here on

703
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:30,800
Speaker 3: abduam Leak in an over one and a half to

704
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:34,240
Speaker 3: see where that pays out because Brundage typically does quit

705
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 3: after about the seven and a half minute mark, So

706
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 3: the over one and a half and abduam leak is

707
00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 3: about plus two twenty five. As I said, his round

708
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:43,880
Speaker 3: two prop about plus two eighty is round three prop

709
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:46,520
Speaker 3: plus eight to fifty. I may just prefer to structure

710
00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 3: those rather than playing a same game parlay. But Billy

711
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:53,160
Speaker 3: any thoughts on monserr abdom a leak against Cody Brundage,

712
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:55,759
Speaker 3: and I'd imagine if we get a decent price on

713
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 3: a duable leak after round one, that has to be

714
00:34:57,600 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 3: about we target as well.

715
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:03,000
Speaker 1: We will absolutely like Brundage might survive, He's not going

716
00:35:03,040 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 1: to do enough that like this suddenly becomes a pick

717
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:07,799
Speaker 1: them fight, so getting that thought out of your head. Unfortunately,

718
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:11,000
Speaker 1: I love the round two I would be pretty shocked

719
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:14,600
Speaker 1: if Brundon survives to full rounds with Mansu Abdul leak,

720
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 1: Like I'd be mildly surprised if he makes it out

721
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 1: of the first. I think uh Adoom leaks like roughly

722
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:22,280
Speaker 1: even money to win in round one, right like somewhere,

723
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 1: like it's close to a pick him that you know,

724
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:29,200
Speaker 1: So at the odds. I like the round two price.

725
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:31,759
Speaker 1: I would again, as you put it, a couple of

726
00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 1: minutes into the second round is kind of the ceiling

727
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:36,279
Speaker 1: for Cody Brundage, and even that usually he needs some

728
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:39,040
Speaker 1: kind of shenanigans to make it that far, whether it's

729
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 1: you know, a long break due to a borderline illegal shot,

730
00:35:44,239 --> 00:35:47,359
Speaker 1: something crazy like that. So yeah, love the round two

731
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:51,400
Speaker 1: not really seeing how we get Cody Brundage to the

732
00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 1: stool a second time in this one against like a big,

733
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:56,120
Speaker 1: scary dude who's also a really good wrestler.

734
00:35:56,719 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 3: Monsieur over half a round under two half rounds minus

735
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:04,280
Speaker 3: one thirty a little interest thing. Not a good price,

736
00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:09,000
Speaker 3: but interesting. Move on to another fight that I have

737
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:13,280
Speaker 3: in this section, a fight I'm really interested in watching overall,

738
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:17,399
Speaker 3: but also my favorite total bet on this card. That's

739
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:21,319
Speaker 3: Cody Garbrand at plus one seventy against how many Barcellos.

740
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 3: Barcello's coming off of his big upset win against Peyton Talbot.

741
00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:30,799
Speaker 3: Cody is a very very very popular underdog pick this week,

742
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:34,520
Speaker 3: public picking him to win about sixty percent of the time,

743
00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:38,080
Speaker 3: compared to listed odds of about twenty five percent. My

744
00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:41,759
Speaker 3: initial projection has Barcellos at around minus three hundred here,

745
00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 3: but he is old, but I would probably consider betting

746
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 3: him using this parlay piece something like that. May just

747
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:52,279
Speaker 3: prefer his decision prop at plus one twelve or that's

748
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:54,640
Speaker 3: where I projected at plus one twelve. Listed at plus

749
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 3: one eighty five, that set fight goes to decision. This

750
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:00,840
Speaker 3: division is averaged about a fifty nine nine percent division

751
00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:03,760
Speaker 3: rates since twenty twenty two. I make the line minus

752
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:06,920
Speaker 3: one thirty, happy to bet it to minus one twenty.

753
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:09,200
Speaker 3: I think he can get even money or around plus

754
00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:11,799
Speaker 3: money right now. I just expect these two to kill

755
00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 3: some time grappling with one another. I think Hownie is

756
00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 3: going to be the one offensively grappling. Cody is the

757
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:20,640
Speaker 3: more dangerous boxer, but I do think how any better

758
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:24,880
Speaker 3: kicks and just more fluid at range, better movement, not

759
00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 3: better movement, but like better fight IQ in general, and

760
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 3: the likelier to mix it up, the likelier to get

761
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:32,080
Speaker 3: top time with the pair. I think Cody can wrestle,

762
00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:34,759
Speaker 3: but I do think Barcellos has better jiu jitsu and

763
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 3: has got a top time in control him against the

764
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:39,440
Speaker 3: fence a little bit, and we may ultimately see a

765
00:37:39,520 --> 00:37:41,720
Speaker 3: relatively boring fight. So if I goes to the decision

766
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:44,080
Speaker 3: at minus one or two, Barcellos to win by decision

767
00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:47,919
Speaker 3: at plus one eighty five, Billy, any thoughts on Cody

768
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:49,400
Speaker 3: garbrand against Howny Bartello's.

769
00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Cody Garbrant has figured out that he

770
00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:54,719
Speaker 1: can't just stand in the pocket and trade bombs with

771
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:57,840
Speaker 1: people anymore because his chin has departed him with all

772
00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 1: those bad knockouts. So I like that angle a lot

773
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:02,759
Speaker 1: for the reason you said, but also it seems to

774
00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:05,040
Speaker 1: be like he I think he knocked out what Brian

775
00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:07,799
Speaker 1: Keller her or something, and one of his last few

776
00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:10,239
Speaker 1: fights but mostly avoided.

777
00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:13,200
Speaker 3: The big one was the one right at the buzzer

778
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:15,759
Speaker 3: at the end of first round against that Brazilian guy,

779
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:18,920
Speaker 3: but the guy was like forty one. You know. It

780
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:20,640
Speaker 3: was a sweet knockout, but it was.

781
00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:25,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was like the get right fight for Cody.

782
00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:27,400
Speaker 1: Though after he got knocked out three times in a

783
00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:29,319
Speaker 1: row super early, like they were, they gave him that

784
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:32,680
Speaker 1: gift and since then he's been more cautious, Like he

785
00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:35,080
Speaker 1: went to a decision with Trevin Jones right, Like, no

786
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:38,960
Speaker 1: offense to Trevin Jones. But Guardband is a former champion,

787
00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:40,680
Speaker 1: and that's the guy he would have started a couple

788
00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:41,480
Speaker 1: of years before that.

789
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:43,920
Speaker 3: And I bet Jones to knock him out, and Jones

790
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:46,640
Speaker 3: hit him once clean late in the fight, and Cody

791
00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:49,839
Speaker 3: did ever the only time he connected, but I mean

792
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:51,200
Speaker 3: Jones made him dance a little bit.

793
00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm with you. Yeah, And I've got one

794
00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:56,719
Speaker 1: more prop. I'm I'm a little frustrated with you or Shawn.

795
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 1: You texted me earlier in the week that you were

796
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:00,960
Speaker 1: gonna like Max bat one fighter in this fight, and

797
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:03,240
Speaker 1: I said, cool, I'll talk about that as my last prop.

798
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:06,120
Speaker 1: It'll be Sean's best bet. We'll get some good synergy here,

799
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:09,080
Speaker 1: and then you did not do that, which we'll talk

800
00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 1: about later on.

801
00:39:10,400 --> 00:39:10,600
Speaker 3: Yep.

802
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:15,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, but it's Phil Roe versus and Losa. I am

803
00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 1: taking the under two and a half at plus two fifteen.

804
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:19,880
Speaker 1: Just kind of surprised we're getting better than two to

805
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:22,279
Speaker 1: one odds that I'm sure Sean could tell you. The

806
00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:25,400
Speaker 1: divisional averages for welterweight would suggest that that is a

807
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:28,200
Speaker 1: very good bet. And Phil Row when he wins, it's

808
00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:33,280
Speaker 1: fine knockout like that's pretty exclusively his win condition. Losa

809
00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:35,919
Speaker 1: not a lot of finishes in the UFC, Like, yeah,

810
00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:37,920
Speaker 1: Phil Rose never won a decision in his career, much

811
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:41,680
Speaker 1: less to the UFC. Losa has not had a lot

812
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 1: of finishes for or against him, But it's not for

813
00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:46,880
Speaker 1: lack of trying. Like he goes out there and throws

814
00:39:46,920 --> 00:39:49,719
Speaker 1: really hard, and he mixes in takedowns. Phil Row is

815
00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:52,680
Speaker 1: a guy who does a lot of jiu jitsu grappling contests.

816
00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:55,640
Speaker 1: And I think if and when Losa puts Roe on

817
00:39:55,719 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 1: his back, Rose either gonna is gonna look for subs

818
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 1: rather than try to get up, which that means you

819
00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 1: get a submission, or you put yourself in a bad

820
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:06,239
Speaker 1: spot and probably get ground and pounded. I'm just really

821
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 1: surprised we're getting better than two to one on that.

822
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:09,880
Speaker 1: I thought the under two and a half would be

823
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:12,839
Speaker 1: like slight plus money, So I like the value there.

824
00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 1: Sean is apparently checking out of his max bet on

825
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:19,120
Speaker 1: An Felosa. He was gonna bet bet the house, all

826
00:40:19,160 --> 00:40:21,839
Speaker 1: the mortgage payments, all that on Losa. I wasn't as

827
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:23,799
Speaker 1: confident as he was. But Sean, tell me why you

828
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:25,239
Speaker 1: have changed your tune here?

829
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:30,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mistook Phil Roe's career for Jamie Picketts and

830
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:34,759
Speaker 3: I do to you for that, but you know so

831
00:40:35,080 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 3: sub in Jamie Pickett for Phil Row. Here are you

832
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:39,160
Speaker 3: max betting Angelosa at minus one thirty?

833
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:42,080
Speaker 1: Yeah? Yeah, oh yeah, I bet. I bet that a

834
00:40:42,120 --> 00:40:44,279
Speaker 1: minus five hundred for everything I got, So that's fair.

835
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:48,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, apologies to you and to Phil Row and to Angelusa.

836
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 3: I guess as well. I just in my mind, I

837
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:54,160
Speaker 3: hadn't done tape yet and I was like, what in

838
00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:57,320
Speaker 3: the world is this line? And it's because in my mind,

839
00:40:57,360 --> 00:40:59,400
Speaker 3: Phil Row was somebody who just backs up to the

840
00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:02,640
Speaker 3: fence and it just gets like cage pushed and doesn't

841
00:41:02,680 --> 00:41:06,799
Speaker 3: do anything offensively. No, Philree, how we get there?

842
00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:10,720
Speaker 1: Yeah? They're physically they're similar to right, like pretty similar

843
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:13,319
Speaker 1: height reach build Like, okay, I see how we got there?

844
00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, because it's it's like you look at the

845
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:18,520
Speaker 3: the measurables on paper and you're like four inches taller,

846
00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:21,960
Speaker 3: six inch reach advantage. But Jamie Pickett didn't use that

847
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:25,160
Speaker 3: heightened reach. I was like, it's relevant. Phil Roe actually

848
00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 3: does use his link and has a big, powerful right

849
00:41:28,719 --> 00:41:30,719
Speaker 3: hand that he loads up on. You could see the

850
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:33,840
Speaker 3: thing coming from a mile away, but when that thing connects,

851
00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:36,359
Speaker 3: he's extremely powerful and as he said, he does a

852
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:39,920
Speaker 3: lot of grappling tournaments as well. You know, he's constantly

853
00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:42,680
Speaker 3: working on the grappling, so I do think he can

854
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:45,720
Speaker 3: be very competitive in this fight. I did make Losa

855
00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:49,319
Speaker 3: about minus one fifty, so there is value technically on

856
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:51,800
Speaker 3: his money line too, about minus one forty, but nowhere

857
00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:55,080
Speaker 3: near that. But I think the size advantage for Row

858
00:41:55,600 --> 00:41:58,640
Speaker 3: pretty telling. Uf He puts up decent stats too, right

859
00:41:58,640 --> 00:42:01,400
Speaker 3: before fights when there's a big reach discrepancy between opponents.

860
00:42:01,440 --> 00:42:04,160
Speaker 3: I don't have the stat personally, but fighters who have

861
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:07,200
Speaker 3: a five plus inch reach advantage to do tend to

862
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:11,319
Speaker 3: outperform their money line odds. I should also mention Roe

863
00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:14,360
Speaker 3: is the more efficient strikeer, you know, just by the numbers,

864
00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:17,840
Speaker 3: getting out struck by about one strike permitted against opponents

865
00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:22,360
Speaker 3: at distance, Losa closer to two. That said, you know

866
00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:24,279
Speaker 3: the control rate in terms of like who's going to

867
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:27,360
Speaker 3: be on top here, I think Losa has a path

868
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:30,920
Speaker 3: to out wrestling Bro and just top timing him Rowe.

869
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:34,120
Speaker 3: You you seem to think we'll scramble up. I'm less confident.

870
00:42:34,200 --> 00:42:35,399
Speaker 3: I think he's I.

871
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 1: Don't think he will.

872
00:42:36,400 --> 00:42:37,480
Speaker 3: Oh you don't think he will.

873
00:42:37,719 --> 00:42:39,920
Speaker 1: I'll tell you I think he will go for submissions

874
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:41,839
Speaker 1: and try to attack off his back, because that's what

875
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:43,759
Speaker 1: you do, you know, when you're doing karate, combat, jiu

876
00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:46,359
Speaker 1: jitsu or whatever, which will then either lead to Roe

877
00:42:46,400 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 1: getting submission or getting himself ground and pounded or finished

878
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:50,799
Speaker 1: on the ground. Like I think, much like we were

879
00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:53,520
Speaker 1: talking about with roseama Unis earlier. I think he's he's

880
00:42:53,520 --> 00:42:55,480
Speaker 1: too comfortable on his back because he does a bunch

881
00:42:55,520 --> 00:42:56,600
Speaker 1: of jiu jitsu tournaments.

882
00:42:57,000 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 3: Okay, now that's that I miss I misshard you before. Yeah,

883
00:43:00,000 --> 00:43:02,480
Speaker 3: eighty one percent control rate for Losa in his career,

884
00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:05,680
Speaker 3: thirty seven percent for Ros. So I do think Losa

885
00:43:05,760 --> 00:43:08,879
Speaker 3: ultimately takes him down, spends a bunch of time on top,

886
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:12,759
Speaker 3: either finishes him from top, gets finished from bottom, or

887
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:17,520
Speaker 3: wins a decision via control time. So Losa, I mean

888
00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:19,719
Speaker 3: los has proven he can take guys down. He took

889
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:22,440
Speaker 3: gabrub On Theme down four times, for Reese McKee down

890
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 3: six times. He can get these bigger bodied guys to

891
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:28,359
Speaker 3: the ground and hopefully he can actually keep row there.

892
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:30,759
Speaker 3: So Losa up to minus one forty. Not quite a

893
00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:33,440
Speaker 3: max bet, but a bet. I'm still interested in making

894
00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:36,279
Speaker 3: this weekend with that. Let's move on to our best bet,

895
00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 3: because we have a co best bet this week on

896
00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:42,360
Speaker 3: just on Jose Ochoa at minus one ninety against the

897
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:45,640
Speaker 3: other Cody Cody Durdin at plus one sixty. Dirden is

898
00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:47,960
Speaker 3: a fast starter, so do you think we may even

899
00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:51,919
Speaker 3: get a better live price on Ochoa after round one?

900
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:54,640
Speaker 3: But public sample picking Dirden to win this fight about

901
00:43:54,680 --> 00:43:58,160
Speaker 3: sixty percent of the time, consensus odds closer to thirty

902
00:43:58,160 --> 00:44:01,840
Speaker 3: five to forty percent. I may Ochoa's lying closer to

903
00:44:01,880 --> 00:44:04,720
Speaker 3: minus three hundred than I do to minus two hundred,

904
00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:08,480
Speaker 3: So Ochoa up to about minus two fifty would be

905
00:44:08,520 --> 00:44:10,480
Speaker 3: a bet for me. And then, also, as I said,

906
00:44:10,520 --> 00:44:12,839
Speaker 3: I think you can get a live bet after round one,

907
00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:15,640
Speaker 3: I also like his inside the distance odds at plus

908
00:44:15,680 --> 00:44:18,600
Speaker 3: one sixty five because I do you think Dirden fades

909
00:44:18,640 --> 00:44:21,200
Speaker 3: and ultimately gives this thing away in the third round?

910
00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:23,719
Speaker 3: I should mention you know, with Ochoa just twenty four

911
00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:27,000
Speaker 3: years old, but this dude is extremely well trained. Main

912
00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:30,959
Speaker 3: training partners Alan Nasamento and Felipe Dos Santos at Shoot

913
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:33,840
Speaker 3: to Box the Late Diego Lima in Brazil. He is Peruvian,

914
00:44:33,880 --> 00:44:36,040
Speaker 3: but he trains with all these Brazilian dudes. So I

915
00:44:36,080 --> 00:44:39,719
Speaker 3: think Ochoa a pretty interesting prospect, good physical stuff, but

916
00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:42,680
Speaker 3: also getting these skill set under his belt as well

917
00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:44,759
Speaker 3: with the dudes he's training with. Billy, how do you

918
00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:47,680
Speaker 3: see this one playing out? I'd imagine also targeting a

919
00:44:47,719 --> 00:44:50,080
Speaker 3: live bet on Ochoa and do you agree with his

920
00:44:50,080 --> 00:44:52,200
Speaker 3: odds to win inside the distance at about plus one

921
00:44:52,280 --> 00:44:52,759
Speaker 3: sixty five?

922
00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 1: As well? Before we get there, you called Durton the

923
00:44:55,680 --> 00:44:59,400
Speaker 1: other Cody, who's the first, Cody Brandage, not Garbrett. We

924
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:01,640
Speaker 1: got three Cody's on the car.

925
00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:04,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, we could do betting against all threes.

926
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:07,400
Speaker 1: Say, we could do a pro Cody parlay and probably

927
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:09,920
Speaker 1: get like fifty to one odds, which I would not

928
00:45:09,960 --> 00:45:13,160
Speaker 1: suggest anyone do. I wanted to chease you on that one,

929
00:45:13,680 --> 00:45:16,160
Speaker 1: but uh yeah, I'm I'm mostly with you. I do

930
00:45:16,280 --> 00:45:19,960
Speaker 1: kind of like Ochoa. By finished, Cody dirtin is one

931
00:45:20,000 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 1: in three in his last four and the only win

932
00:45:22,320 --> 00:45:25,160
Speaker 1: was because Matt Schanell just put his head right into

933
00:45:25,200 --> 00:45:27,399
Speaker 1: a guillotine. Like Matt Schanell really wanted to go out

934
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:29,960
Speaker 1: there and get guillotine in that moment for some reason.

935
00:45:30,080 --> 00:45:32,319
Speaker 1: So not a lot of faith in Cody Durton. He's

936
00:45:32,320 --> 00:45:35,799
Speaker 1: a good wrestler. He's just kind of like the extremely

937
00:45:35,880 --> 00:45:38,120
Speaker 1: poor man's version of Morob where he gets a lot

938
00:45:38,160 --> 00:45:40,799
Speaker 1: of takedowns that don't do much, but he also can't

939
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:44,800
Speaker 1: hold you there as well, or apparently not Morob does submission,

940
00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:47,600
Speaker 1: so that's a little bit different. But Otra I was

941
00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:50,560
Speaker 1: extremely impressed in his fight against Lonnie Kavanaugh, who I

942
00:45:50,600 --> 00:45:55,000
Speaker 1: think is like future flyweight champion, probably sooner rather than later.

943
00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:58,360
Speaker 1: And he made that really really close, you know, fifty

944
00:45:58,400 --> 00:46:00,799
Speaker 1: one to fifty strikes for Kavanaugh. Kevanaugh is a very

945
00:46:00,840 --> 00:46:03,799
Speaker 1: talented striker, and as you pointed out, he's twenty four.

946
00:46:04,320 --> 00:46:07,280
Speaker 1: We got to project Oho to still be getting better,

947
00:46:07,560 --> 00:46:10,520
Speaker 1: whereas During is getting worse. Outside of that, though I

948
00:46:10,560 --> 00:46:12,279
Speaker 1: looked at it, I said, you know, the public is

949
00:46:12,320 --> 00:46:14,879
Speaker 1: all over Cody Durton. The line has moved to Ochoa.

950
00:46:15,040 --> 00:46:17,439
Speaker 1: Sewn is definitely going to be on that. I thought

951
00:46:17,440 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 1: you were taking the other one for best bet, so

952
00:46:19,320 --> 00:46:21,000
Speaker 1: then I figured I could do this and steal your

953
00:46:21,040 --> 00:46:24,279
Speaker 1: thunder there. But sorry to step on your toe. This

954
00:46:24,320 --> 00:46:26,440
Speaker 1: is a classic Sean's are a little pick given the

955
00:46:26,440 --> 00:46:29,120
Speaker 1: way the public perception is coming in and the money

956
00:46:29,120 --> 00:46:31,440
Speaker 1: line movement and I was going to steal your thunder

957
00:46:31,480 --> 00:46:34,000
Speaker 1: on that, but you know that we we had some pivots,

958
00:46:34,000 --> 00:46:36,120
Speaker 1: so that one's on me. Although I did get this

959
00:46:36,160 --> 00:46:38,640
Speaker 1: one into the sheet first for those scoring at home.

960
00:46:39,640 --> 00:46:41,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, we were literally in there at the same time

961
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:44,000
Speaker 3: and the same at the top of the sheet. You know,

962
00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:46,160
Speaker 3: I see you filling o'cho at the bottom. I was like,

963
00:46:46,280 --> 00:46:48,080
Speaker 3: my god, you know we're on the same page as

964
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:52,239
Speaker 3: we always happen to see it. The Ohoa Barcello's Abdomlik

965
00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:55,120
Speaker 3: parlay pays out at about plus one sixty. The anti

966
00:46:55,160 --> 00:46:55,960
Speaker 3: Cody barlay.

967
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:57,640
Speaker 1: The pro cart.

968
00:46:57,480 --> 00:47:00,840
Speaker 3: Cody parlay pays out at about four three to one

969
00:47:01,200 --> 00:47:04,840
Speaker 3: with Yeah, yeah, you're pretty close is Brundage, Garbrandt and

970
00:47:04,880 --> 00:47:08,880
Speaker 3: Dirdan altogether. I'm on the anti Cody parlay. I'm not

971
00:47:08,880 --> 00:47:10,600
Speaker 3: sure if I'm actually gonna play that, but I do

972
00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:13,719
Speaker 3: believe I'm betting against all three in some capacity at

973
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:16,239
Speaker 3: about plus one sixty. Last fight, I wanted to mention

974
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:19,320
Speaker 3: just as showing pure money line value, Jamielyn Horth against

975
00:47:19,360 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 3: Vanessa Demopolis fourth is seven inch reach advantage here, but

976
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:27,120
Speaker 3: much likelier to spend time on top as well. Demopolis

977
00:47:27,239 --> 00:47:30,240
Speaker 3: just a thirty percent control rate in the UFC, getting

978
00:47:30,280 --> 00:47:34,280
Speaker 3: outstruck by three point two strikes per minute at distance.

979
00:47:34,480 --> 00:47:37,400
Speaker 3: I make Horth about a minus nine hundred favorite in

980
00:47:37,480 --> 00:47:40,240
Speaker 3: this fight. You can take her at minus six hundred.

981
00:47:40,239 --> 00:47:42,840
Speaker 3: You can parlay that up with the gohoes to decision

982
00:47:42,880 --> 00:47:45,560
Speaker 3: in the Namahunas fight, and then maybe find a third

983
00:47:45,560 --> 00:47:48,760
Speaker 3: piece as well to get that bang over even money.

984
00:47:48,760 --> 00:47:51,360
Speaker 3: But Billy, any thoughts on Horse Demopolis, I would imagine

985
00:47:51,640 --> 00:47:54,239
Speaker 3: not too many, And then any other thoughts on any

986
00:47:54,239 --> 00:47:56,080
Speaker 3: other fights on this card before we get out of here.

987
00:47:57,200 --> 00:47:59,560
Speaker 1: I almost gave out Jamie Lyn Horth in my luck

988
00:47:59,600 --> 00:48:01,640
Speaker 1: ratings earlier in the week when she was minus three

989
00:48:01,760 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 1: ninety five, Like I had it typed up, and I thought,

990
00:48:04,200 --> 00:48:05,719
Speaker 1: of my lot, it's silly to say a minus four

991
00:48:05,800 --> 00:48:08,759
Speaker 1: hundred favorite is undervalued, Like I felt weird saying that,

992
00:48:09,040 --> 00:48:11,320
Speaker 1: and then she went and moved, you know, fifty percent

993
00:48:11,400 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 1: off that mark. Can't really bet it straight up at

994
00:48:14,040 --> 00:48:16,280
Speaker 1: minus six hundred. You could throw her with some Cody

995
00:48:16,280 --> 00:48:19,720
Speaker 1: opponents in there and probably get an okay price, maybe

996
00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:25,080
Speaker 1: not Barcelos, but man ser abdul Malik certainly and get

997
00:48:25,120 --> 00:48:28,120
Speaker 1: a decent price. But yeah, I mean, I think she

998
00:48:28,360 --> 00:48:31,560
Speaker 1: dominates this vice. Also worth noting Vanessa Demopolis took this

999
00:48:31,640 --> 00:48:34,640
Speaker 1: fight on like Sunday of last week or Saturday something

1000
00:48:34,640 --> 00:48:37,960
Speaker 1: like that, So I would that's about the line. The

1001
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:41,120
Speaker 1: line is about where it should be under normal circumstances,

1002
00:48:41,120 --> 00:48:42,800
Speaker 1: and then you put the late notice into it and

1003
00:48:42,800 --> 00:48:45,879
Speaker 1: it's even worse. So yeah, agreed, if you know there's

1004
00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:48,440
Speaker 1: value at minus six hundred such that the thing exists.

1005
00:48:48,600 --> 00:48:51,360
Speaker 1: Oh other point, Demopolis coming up from one fifteen and

1006
00:48:51,520 --> 00:48:54,920
Speaker 1: is not especially physically imposing one hundred and fifteen pounders,

1007
00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:57,480
Speaker 1: so yeah, horse should make this pretty easy. It's just

1008
00:48:57,520 --> 00:48:59,200
Speaker 1: hard now that it's minus six hundred in set of

1009
00:48:59,200 --> 00:48:59,960
Speaker 1: minus four hundred.

1010
00:49:00,360 --> 00:49:02,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, I do think this is a found money on

1011
00:49:02,280 --> 00:49:05,000
Speaker 3: the floor type of spot though. You know, you look

1012
00:49:05,000 --> 00:49:09,440
Speaker 3: at the the line for well Maker against Matino minus

1013
00:49:09,480 --> 00:49:13,480
Speaker 3: twenty one hundred, like you know MMA back in the

1014
00:49:13,560 --> 00:49:15,279
Speaker 3: day kuld Be, but like you could have gotten kuld

1015
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:17,319
Speaker 3: Be with very fair prices when he was coming up,

1016
00:49:17,360 --> 00:49:20,640
Speaker 3: you know, minus four hundred against dudes nowadays, Couldibe would

1017
00:49:20,640 --> 00:49:23,200
Speaker 3: be minus two thousand against everybody he fought that. I

1018
00:49:23,239 --> 00:49:25,280
Speaker 3: do think this is a spot where the fighter should

1019
00:49:25,320 --> 00:49:28,839
Speaker 3: be minus one thousand minus two thousand, and in fact

1020
00:49:28,920 --> 00:49:32,440
Speaker 3: she's minus six hundred. You can get value. This was value,

1021
00:49:32,480 --> 00:49:34,520
Speaker 3: but it's still a five percent edge. You know, minus

1022
00:49:34,520 --> 00:49:37,279
Speaker 3: six hundred versus minus eight hundred still a four or

1023
00:49:37,320 --> 00:49:39,920
Speaker 3: five percent edge at that price point, no different than

1024
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:44,319
Speaker 3: betting minus one twenty five versus minus one fifty. You're

1025
00:49:44,360 --> 00:49:46,319
Speaker 3: just laying a lot more juice to get there, but

1026
00:49:46,640 --> 00:49:49,239
Speaker 3: the edge express is still the same. You'd like the

1027
00:49:49,280 --> 00:49:51,840
Speaker 3: instantly tail some of the bets that we discussed on

1028
00:49:51,880 --> 00:49:54,360
Speaker 3: today's show for the equipsick links both in the podcast

1029
00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:57,799
Speaker 3: and the video description, or visit Action hour dot com

1030
00:49:57,920 --> 00:50:00,680
Speaker 3: slash bet now. Don't forget to download the free award

1031
00:50:00,680 --> 00:50:03,200
Speaker 3: winning Action NETWORKAP and sign up for Action Pro for

1032
00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:06,719
Speaker 3: immediate access to expert picks analysis. Best luck with all

1033
00:50:06,719 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 3: your bests this weekend. Enjoyed the violence, Thank you for listening.

1034
00:50:09,320 --> 00:50:10,040
Speaker 3: To see you next week.

1035
00:50:18,160 --> 00:50:22,680
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1036
00:50:22,680 --> 00:50:25,480
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1037
00:50:25,520 --> 00:50:28,640
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler