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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named vest vetting Podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go. We're growing in job spect.

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Speaker 3: I'm sitting it to cash.

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Speaker 4: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 4: go to win.

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Speaker 5: That's incredible.

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Speaker 4: Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 3: I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate combine.

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Speaker 3: You want to pull, and we are underway.

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Speaker 5: Hello, everyone, Welcome back to another NFL episode of the

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Speaker 5: Action Network podcast. I'm Matthew Friedman, the editor in chief

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Speaker 5: of Fantasy Labs. With me are Sean Corner and Chris Ravon.

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Speaker 5: Shawn is the Action Network Director of Predictive Analytics. Chris

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Speaker 5: is a senior editor and analyst at the Action Network,

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Speaker 5: and they are two the best fantasy football rankers in

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Speaker 5: the world. In joining us is Graham Barfield, the author

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Speaker 5: of Yards Created and co owner of Fantasy Points. Graham,

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Speaker 5: thanks for joining us. How is it going?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: Thanks for having me on, guys. This should be fun.

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Speaker 3: Really excited to talk backs with you, guys. I'm more

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Speaker 3: excited and I caught the tail end of a very

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Speaker 3: intense Dan Arnold, Jase Sternberger debate that I don't understand

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Speaker 3: that Dan Arnold love in the fantasy industry, Like do

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Speaker 3: people not know the Cardinals don't use tight ends? Like

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Speaker 3: I really genuinely don't get it.

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Speaker 5: I don't even want to open this door because Rayvaughn

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Speaker 5: will just run through it. But yes, Graham, you are correct. Okay,

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Speaker 5: let's get started with the show. Graham. You are the

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Speaker 5: on Twitter it says author of yards Created. But I'm

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Speaker 5: gonna be honest. You are the creator of yards Created,

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Speaker 5: which is a pretty cool thing. Can you talk just

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Speaker 5: a little bit about your methodology for scouting running backs?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Yards Created is project I've been doing now for

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Speaker 3: five years where I basically chart like the top twelve,

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Speaker 3: top fifteen rookie running backs that are coming into the NFL,

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Speaker 3: and I chart like seven or eight games every year,

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Speaker 3: more than half of the season, and basically determine, you

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Speaker 3: know what a run, you know, how many yards are

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Speaker 3: running back should be accredited on his own for creating

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Speaker 3: on his own. And basically I do this by charting

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Speaker 3: offensive line play first, seeing how many yards and offensive

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Speaker 3: the offensive line is blocked on a per play basis,

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Speaker 3: and then I go from there. And see how many

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Speaker 3: yards the running back should be a credit for. It's

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Speaker 3: also kind of taken some new pathways like I chart

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Speaker 3: missed tackles forced by power, elusiveness and speed. I chart

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Speaker 3: every passing down snap too, and chart yards per route

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Speaker 3: run chart pass protection. And you know, I went into

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Speaker 3: this thinking it would be kind of like more of

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Speaker 3: a descriptive like fun, like, hey, this is where this

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Speaker 3: guy wins, this is where he succeeds. But I think

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Speaker 3: it's done a pretty decent job of predicting future fantasy success,

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Speaker 3: which is pretty cool.

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Speaker 5: All Right, So you are very much into the running

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Speaker 5: back position and evaluating it. Can you talking about your

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Speaker 5: approach to running back in fantasy?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? I mean, obviously fantasy football is all about volume,

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Speaker 3: and especially in PPR leagues, we want running backs that

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Speaker 3: are highly involved in the passing game. I actually went

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Speaker 3: back and looked for a study I did for fantasypoints

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Speaker 3: dot Com and wrote up in a bestball column like

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Speaker 3: snaps and routes run are the two main stats that

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Speaker 3: correlate most to fantasy points. It's not even touches like

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Speaker 3: getting on the field and running routes are by far

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Speaker 3: the two biggest things we should be looking for for

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Speaker 3: fantasy backs, especially if you play in PPR. You know,

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Speaker 3: talent and offensive line is obviously another variable that matters,

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Speaker 3: but by and large, you know, you can have a

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Speaker 3: player who you might not think is very good, but

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Speaker 3: if they're going to get two hundred and fifty touches

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Speaker 3: and be on the field consistently, they're the ones we

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Speaker 3: should be targeting.

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Speaker 6: So on next episode, we're gonna start talking about the

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Speaker 6: running backs outside of the top twelve. Which of that

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Speaker 6: group is your favorite? Spoiler Austin Eckler is part of

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Speaker 6: that group.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's Austin Eckler, And that was That's exactly where

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Speaker 3: I was gonna go. It's kind of shock that he

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Speaker 3: was left off the show. She actually maybe we'll talk

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Speaker 3: about a little later on, but he's in my top twelve.

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Speaker 5: And look, we'll talk about it now. Okay, there's this

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Speaker 5: mishmash of running backs once you get past let's say

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Speaker 5: like the top seven, top eight, and depending on the

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Speaker 5: ADP source that you use, any number of guys could

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Speaker 5: you know, kind of creep into that eleventh or twelfth spot.

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Speaker 5: So in many leagues it wouldn't be a surprise for

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Speaker 5: Austin Eckler to be going in the top twelve. In

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Speaker 5: some weeks he falls out of it. That's the that's

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Speaker 5: the answer there.

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Speaker 7: Depending on who's making your podcast outline, you might have

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Speaker 7: guys that don't belong in the outline in the outline

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Speaker 7: and guys that are missing that should be there.

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Speaker 6: Let's just say that the cite we're using for ADP

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Speaker 6: didn't have Clyde Edwards Hilaire in there yet, and we

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Speaker 6: all know that's you know, not true if you're in

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Speaker 6: any draft lately he goes in the top ten.

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Speaker 2: So I think it has more to do with the

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Speaker 2: ADP source for using.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and you know, interesting point that you mentioned there

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Speaker 5: about the person who is controlling the show sheet. That's

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Speaker 5: something we could you know, talk about later in the

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Speaker 5: episode or off air if you want, if you dare.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, there's always a question in terms of these

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Speaker 5: guys going at the end of the first that first

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Speaker 5: group there in the top twelve of you know, like,

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Speaker 5: does this guy actually belong in the top twelve. And yeah,

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Speaker 5: I would say, as Graham said that obviously Austin Eckler

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Speaker 5: belongs in that group in terms of where he should

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Speaker 5: be going but he's he's not always going there, So

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Speaker 5: we'll have a conversation about that in a little bit.

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Speaker 7: I apologize for Matthew Friedman shenanigans at the outline, but

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Speaker 7: I do want to know who is the one running

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Speaker 7: back you've gotten.

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Speaker 4: The most of so far.

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Speaker 3: Now that's Eckler. Like I'm drafting Eckler a bunch in

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Speaker 3: the second round, but my number one running back that

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Speaker 3: I have in Best Ball was actually Clyde Edwards Hilaire.

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Speaker 3: I've drafted him in like almost every time I could

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Speaker 3: get him in the second round. Now that's obviously not happening.

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Speaker 3: It kind of sucks because that was, like my draft

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Speaker 3: plan in every league is to get was a layered

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Speaker 3: round two and even if he started slow, I felt

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Speaker 3: like he had the potential be a league winner in

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Speaker 3: the in the late rounds. But now my main target

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Speaker 3: is Eckler in the second round. I typically am going

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Speaker 3: RBRB to start. I'll mix and Travis Kelce and George

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Speaker 3: Kittle in the second round, but I really feel pretty

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Speaker 3: strongly that running back running backs start this year is

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Speaker 3: the way to go. And then you just hammer you know,

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Speaker 3: the wide receivers, Mark Andrews for the next five to

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Speaker 3: six rounds. So Eckler is my guy, and that he

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Speaker 3: one hundred percent should have been in the show sheet.

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Speaker 3: So I'm with you.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, freedom, Yeah, it's not a matter of where you

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Speaker 5: have him ranked. It's a matter of where he's going

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Speaker 5: in average draft position in your typical league. I mean this,

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Speaker 5: we can call this the Austin Eckler episode, even though

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Speaker 5: he's technically not on the show sheet. That's totally fine.

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Speaker 5: And then the next episode after this we can call

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Speaker 5: it Austin Eckler Part two. Like I'd say, besides Clyde

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Speaker 5: Edwards a layer, he's the running back we should be

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Speaker 5: talking about the most because he's one of the guys

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Speaker 5: who I think at the position offers the most value

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Speaker 5: outside of that, like basically opposite of that Graham, who's

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Speaker 5: a one running back you are most looking to stay

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Speaker 5: away from in your fantasy drafts.

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Speaker 3: Look, I love the player, but I'm kind of out

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Speaker 3: on Nick Chubb. He had some like he got very

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Speaker 3: unlucky in the touchdown department last year. Based on his volume,

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Speaker 3: he should have scored like at least two to three

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Speaker 3: more touchdowns because he you know, he basically got a

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Speaker 3: bunch of volume inside the ten and kind of got

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Speaker 3: unlucky there. But once Cream Hunt was activated from suspension,

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Speaker 3: like his target share, his routes, all this, you know,

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Speaker 3: snaps started falling, and you know, I think he's bound

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Speaker 3: for some positive touchdown regression just based on how I

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Speaker 3: think he'll be used in the red zone. But you know,

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Speaker 3: new OC, with new OC, new coaching staff, that might

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Speaker 3: view Kareem Hunt a little bit differently. You know, they

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Speaker 3: kind of used Hunt as not necessarily like an insided

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Speaker 3: runner last year. They kind of used him in a

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Speaker 3: little bit of like a bit roll, like a change

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Speaker 3: up role. I think we know Kareem Hunt is a

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Speaker 3: much better runner than that, and I think there's a

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Speaker 3: real chance they might turn this into not like a

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Speaker 3: full blown committee where Chubb is like the one B.

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Speaker 3: I still think he's the one A, but Kaream is

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Speaker 3: definitely very good in the past game, will stay highly

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Speaker 3: involved there and Chubb just goes like man like thirteen

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Speaker 3: fourteen overall, sometimes he gets into the first round, like

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Speaker 3: I think you're just paying a really big premium for

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Speaker 3: a running back that's not going to be involved highly

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Speaker 3: in the passing game. And there's some guys like Josh Jacobs,

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Speaker 3: who I think could literally double his reception total potentially

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Speaker 3: this year from last year. That goes later, and I'm

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Speaker 3: just more interested in someone like him and Austin Eckler.

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Speaker 5: Okay, So I think I'm going to win a lot

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Speaker 5: of points from you guys when I call an audible

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Speaker 5: right here and bump Nick Chubb off of the outline

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Speaker 5: and put Austin Eckler into the outline. So that's one

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Speaker 5: that's going to happen. Two Graham on The Serious XM Show.

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Speaker 5: I believe a few weeks ago, Raywan and I were

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Speaker 5: having a debate of Chubb versus Kareem Hunt, and I

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Speaker 5: made the statement that Kareem Hunt actually might be the

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Speaker 5: better running back out of the two, and Raybond pushed

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Speaker 5: back on that a little bit. What do you think

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Speaker 5: in terms of their skill level, not necessarily who's going

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Speaker 5: to have the most Fantasy points this year, but in

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Speaker 5: terms of their actual abilities on a football field, which

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Speaker 5: one of those guys do you think is actually the

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Speaker 5: better player? And could you like put a percentage on

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Speaker 5: it in terms of like I think this guy is

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Speaker 5: you know, sixty percent and this guy's forty percent in

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Speaker 5: terms of like the probability of who's better.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's really close. I think it's fifty

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Speaker 3: five to forty five in favor of Chubb. I think

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Speaker 3: Chubb is just a slightly better inside runner. I think

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Speaker 3: he's got slightly better vision. But man like Kaream Hunt,

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Speaker 3: but both players, when I you know, charted them for

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Speaker 3: yards created, both running backs fared extremely well. But Cream

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Speaker 3: Hunt was always a guy that was like very underrated

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Speaker 3: in the process, Like he created a bunch of yards. Like, yes,

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Speaker 3: he played against a poor competition in college, but he

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Speaker 3: was always, you know, top of the he was top

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Speaker 3: of the charts and miss tackles forced. And ever since

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Speaker 3: he's joined the league, he's been one of the most

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Speaker 3: elusive running back in the NFL. And I mean, I

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Speaker 3: think it stays says a lot that like, you know,

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Speaker 3: when Chubb or excuse me, when Hunt came back to

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Speaker 3: the lineup, like Nick, Chubb's passing down role was basically

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Speaker 3: completely diminished. I mean his target share, target share fell

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Speaker 3: from twelve percent to five percent. I mean, Kareem Hunt

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Speaker 3: outscored him in Fantasy in six deb eight games. I

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Speaker 3: think there's just a real chance people are just like

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Speaker 3: completely underrating and overlooking just how big of a whole

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Speaker 3: role Kareem Hunt is going to play in this offense.

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Speaker 3: And yeah, Chubb is really good, but but Kareem Hunt

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Speaker 3: is uh, he's really talented, dude too.

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Speaker 5: All right, let's get into this conversation a little more

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Speaker 5: in depth on the top twelve. And obviously the guy

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Speaker 5: we got to start with is Christian McCaffrey at the top,

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Speaker 5: almost the unanimous one oh one.

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Speaker 7: Uh.

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Speaker 5: In some leagues, I've actually seen at this point Clyde

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Speaker 5: Edward Hilaire go one on one, which I don't want

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Speaker 5: to say that that's just rookie delirium taking over, but

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Speaker 5: you know, some people really really striving to be contra

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Speaker 5: in there. But in most leagues, Christian McCaffrey is the

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Speaker 5: slam dunk one oh one. In twenty nineteen, he had

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Speaker 5: an RB one performance in fourteen of his sixteen games

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Speaker 5: for the season, he had more than one hundred and

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Speaker 5: fifty PPR points, more than the number two running back,

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Speaker 5: so very dominant. Where are you on Christian McCaffrey, Not

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Speaker 5: necessarily like, hey, are you taking him number one? Overall?

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Speaker 5: But how big of an edge do you think you have.

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Speaker 5: If you get the one oh.

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Speaker 3: One, it's a massive edge. Like if you look at

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Speaker 3: win rates over the last couple of years, Like even

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Speaker 3: if you're not taking Christian McCaffrey, if you have the

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Speaker 3: one oh one, I mean you just you're automatically your

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Speaker 3: odds of winning is literally double of that that if

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Speaker 3: you have like the eleventh or twelfth pick. So just

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Speaker 3: right off the draw, right off the luck of the draw,

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Speaker 3: you've got like literally double the odds to win your league.

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Speaker 3: And I don't know, I feel like, I feel like

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Speaker 3: anybody that doesn't have CMC at one oh one is

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Speaker 3: just genuinely overthinking. Especially in PPR. I mean, you've basically

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Speaker 3: got a you know, a high end wide receiver two

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Speaker 3: plus RB one getting volume. And like I said, I

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Speaker 3: mean the number one things we should be looking for

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Speaker 3: is snaps and routes run. And Christian McCaffrey does not

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Speaker 3: come off the field. And now he's got checkdown quarterback

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Speaker 3: King Teddy Bridgewater gonna be looking for him in the

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Speaker 3: short and intermediate areas all day long. This offense is

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Speaker 3: going to revolve around CMC and getting his touches, and

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Speaker 3: I just his floor is so high. I mean, literally,

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Speaker 3: no player in fantasy has a higher floor. I mean,

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Speaker 3: every single week we can expect like at least fifteen

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Speaker 3: to eighteen points, and you just can't say that about

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Speaker 3: anybody else.

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Speaker 5: Sean, if you look just at the final season production

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Speaker 5: numbers for Christian McCaffrey two years ago, he had almost

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Speaker 5: two thousand yards from scrimmage thirteen touchdowns. Last year almost

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Speaker 5: twenty four hundred yards from scrimmage nineteen touchdowns. On the

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Speaker 5: one hand, it would be foolish to say, like, yeah,

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Speaker 5: Christian McCaffrey's going to do again this year exactly what

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Speaker 5: he did last year. But it seems like he has

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Speaker 5: a pretty good shot of doing something pretty close to

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Speaker 5: like an average of what he's done over the past

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Speaker 5: two years, or something pretty close to what he did

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Speaker 5: two years ago. Really, what should people be expecting, right?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, And that's the best way to think about it is,

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Speaker 6: you know, the odds of him repeating that performance are

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Speaker 6: probably low, but if there's any back that can do it,

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Speaker 6: it's him, So I would think of it that way.

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Speaker 6: If he stays healthy all sixteen games, it's very likely

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Speaker 6: he's the top scoring running back. So when when you

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Speaker 6: take him first overall. The only way it won't pan

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Speaker 6: out is if he misses time, I think. So you know,

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Speaker 6: I'm all in on CMC is the number one all

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Speaker 6: pick overall pick. I think it's a huge edge to

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Speaker 6: start off with him, and you know they have the

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Speaker 6: new offensive coordinator and Joe Brady, and I'm not too

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Speaker 6: worried about that at all. You know, he ran that

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Speaker 6: the passing game at LSU, and we saw Clyde Edwards

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Speaker 6: lair in that system, even sending Hilaire deep on deep routs.

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Speaker 6: So it'll be cool to see how they utilize McCaffrey,

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Speaker 6: maybe even more in the passing game. But I think

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Speaker 6: that's the point with McCaffrey, even though the team pretty

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Speaker 6: much sucks and the offensive line is pretty bad, you know,

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Speaker 6: being as involved in the passing game as him, he's

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Speaker 6: really a matchup proof. And you know, when it comes

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Speaker 6: to receptions for running back, that's actually the most valuable

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Speaker 6: touch you can have. So I agree with Graham. I

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Speaker 6: think he has the highest floor and the highest ceiling.

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Speaker 6: So that's why you know, I don't even hesitate. If

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Speaker 6: you have the first overall pick, you have to take him.

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Speaker 5: Raybon I think one of the big questions with Christian

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Speaker 5: McCaffrey isn't is he going to be used heavily? But

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Speaker 5: does he have the ability to score you know, double

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Speaker 5: digit touchdowns in an offense or let's say, you know,

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Speaker 5: thirteen touchdowns two years ago, nineteen touchdowns last year. Does

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Speaker 5: he have that type of touchdown potential this year in

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Speaker 5: an offense that you know is kind of starting over

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Speaker 5: and has some uncertainty there.

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Speaker 7: Absolutely, last year Caroline quarterback situation was abysmal. Kyle Allen

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Speaker 7: was one of the least efficient quarterbacks in the league,

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Speaker 7: Cam Newton with a shell of himself in the games

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Speaker 7: he played, and Will Greer.

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Speaker 4: Looked like he never played football before in his start.

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Speaker 7: So Carolina statistically was one of the least efficient passing teams,

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Speaker 7: which you know, passing drives offense, and Christian McCaffrey is

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Speaker 7: the rest of the offense. He was pretty much every

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Speaker 7: other play was McCaffrey. So Teddy Bridgewater is actually an

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Speaker 7: upgrade on every quarterback Carolina had last year. I'm not

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Speaker 7: saying that he's going to be amazing, but he's going

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Speaker 7: to bring some stability and as Graham pointed out, he's

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Speaker 7: a guy that's checking it down, he's looking underneath. His

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Speaker 7: average depth of target is around six to six and

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Speaker 7: a half over the last few years, and that's great

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Speaker 7: news for McCaffrey.

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Speaker 4: So I mean, just think about it this way.

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Speaker 7: McCaffrey outscored every running back even in standard formats, by

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Speaker 7: seventy points. So you know, this is a guy that

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Speaker 7: it's really hard to make a case for any other player.

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Speaker 7: I think the only way you do it is if

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Speaker 7: you're trying to be contrarian and you just don't go

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Speaker 7: running back number one and you go with Michael Thomas.

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Speaker 7: But even that, I think it's it's still kind of crazy.

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Speaker 7: I think you just want to take McCaffrey and keep

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Speaker 7: it moving.

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Speaker 5: After Christian McCaffrey, I think you have this this tier

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Speaker 5: of running backs, and really you could cut it into

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Speaker 5: two tiers. Uh, Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott for most

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Speaker 5: people are going number two and three in some order. Uh,

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Speaker 5: and then maybe Michael Thomas goes in there, and I think,

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Speaker 5: you know, there's a tear drop between those two and

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Speaker 5: the guys who follow Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook, and

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Speaker 5: some people might have Clyde Edwards a layer in that tier. Uh,

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Speaker 5: we can certainly talk about him in a little bit.

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Speaker 5: But Graham, I want to get your thoughts on those

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Speaker 5: four guys, Barkley, Zeke, Kamara, Cook, how it is that

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Speaker 5: you you rank them.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So I've got Barkley two, Zeke and Kamara, Like man,

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Speaker 3: I have a really hard time distinguishing between those two

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Speaker 3: at three and four, and then I've got Cook as

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Speaker 3: a clear five behind him. But you know, Saquon last

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Speaker 3: year obviously was never healthy. He heard his ankle mid

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Speaker 3: year and still was just an absolute like when he

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Speaker 3: you know, when he did play and had a full snapshare,

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Speaker 3: he he has been a beast. I mean over the

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Speaker 3: last two years he's averaged twenty one point seven Fantasy

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Speaker 3: points per game. I mean that's like your top four,

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Speaker 3: top five all time if you're looking at just historical baselines.

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Speaker 3: And you know, again, we look for running backs that

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Speaker 3: are involved in the passing game, and Barkley should be

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Speaker 3: a shoe in for sixty or seventy targets. Zeke and

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Speaker 3: kamaras are really close debate in PPR. I think last year,

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Speaker 3: Alvin Kamara, before he heard his ankle, he was like fantastic.

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Speaker 3: I mean he was top three and miss tackles forced

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Speaker 3: per touch got a little unlucky in the touchdown department.

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Speaker 3: But he was playing on like sixty five seventy percent

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Speaker 3: of snaps last year, which for a player that is

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Speaker 3: highly highly efficient like Kamara is, is just like it

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Speaker 3: could be a ludicrous, ludicrous role for him. I mean,

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Speaker 3: you got to remember Alvin Kamara back before mark Ingram

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Speaker 3: was not on the team, you know, in twenty eighteen.

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Speaker 3: In twenty seventeen, he was basically like a you know,

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Speaker 3: part time player, playing fifty five sixty percent of snaps

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Speaker 3: last year got boosted way up. I just think he

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Speaker 3: has such a ceiling that we just have not seen

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Speaker 3: the true true ceiling for Camara just yet. Zeke's volume

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Speaker 3: is obviously really say if Cook's volume is pretty safe too,

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Speaker 3: but I think with Camara and Barkley, especially their involvement

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Speaker 3: in the passing game kind of boosts them significantly higher

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Speaker 3: than Dalvin Cook.

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Speaker 5: For me, Raybon, I want to kick it to you here.

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Speaker 5: You have Ezekiel Elliott number two. I have Barkley number two.

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Speaker 5: We've talked about this on the series show before, and

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Speaker 5: I can see the case for Zeke honestly, think it's

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Speaker 5: pretty close between those guys. I give the edge to

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Speaker 5: Barkley in part because I think at this point he

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Speaker 5: has a higher target share than we're going to see

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Speaker 5: out of Zeke, and I think he's going to be

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Speaker 5: funneled the ball just a little bit more even as

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Speaker 5: a runner than Zeke. But can you talk about what

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Speaker 5: you prefer in Zeke?

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Speaker 7: I just like Zeke because he's extremely safe. I've extremely talented,

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Speaker 7: extremely safe, has been durable, you know, more durable than Saquon.

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Speaker 7: His miss games came from kind of off the field issues,

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Speaker 7: and when I look at Saquon just on a week

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Speaker 7: to week basis, I think there's just a little more

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Speaker 7: room for downside. For example, Zeke has never had a

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Speaker 7: game like Saquon had in Week ten last year where

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Speaker 7: he had thirteen carries for one yard. He never had

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Speaker 7: a game like Saquon did in Week three last year

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Speaker 7: where he had eight carries for ten yards. So he's

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Speaker 7: a guy that's trying to hit a home run on

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Speaker 7: every play, and every once in a while you're gonna

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Speaker 7: get a really bad performance against a good run defense.

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Speaker 7: And when you talk about the targets, yeah, I think

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Speaker 7: Saquan has a higher targets ceiling. But at the same time,

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Speaker 7: you know, we talk a lot about Okay, you know,

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Speaker 7: new coaching staff in Dallas and then Jason Garrett coming

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Speaker 7: over from Dallas to New York. So it's very possible

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Speaker 7: that you know, Saquon, who saw a dip in his

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Speaker 7: target volume last year compared to his rookie season, is

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Speaker 7: kind of used more like Zeke, which oh in all

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Speaker 7: evens out, but really for me, it's just that consistency

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Speaker 7: where I see a little more downside for Saquon, and

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Speaker 7: also I think Dallas still has a better higher quality

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Speaker 7: offensive line than New York.

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Speaker 5: Sean, you are with Raybond on this, I think you

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Speaker 5: have Zeke ahead of Barkley, which it just tickles me

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Speaker 5: that both of you are on the wrong side of this. Sean,

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Speaker 5: talk to me about Zeke and why you prefer him

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Speaker 5: to Barkley.

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Speaker 6: It's all about having a higher floor in this range

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Speaker 6: we always talking about, you know, in the first round,

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Speaker 6: you just don't want to mess up, so I typically

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Speaker 6: I'm a little bit safer. I think Barkley obviously has

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Speaker 6: the higher ceiling, as raybaut mentioning, you know, he usually

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Speaker 6: goes to the home run. So that's he's gonna be

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Speaker 6: way more voluable week to week when I just want

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Speaker 6: Zeke's you know, ten plus touchdowns twelve hundred yards and

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Speaker 6: move on with life and then you know, dominate the

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Speaker 6: draft later on and take swings elsewhere. But yeah, I think,

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00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:51,240
Speaker 6: you know, Zeke, They're gonna run a lot more eleven

433
00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:53,720
Speaker 6: personnel this year with Ceedee Lamb and the tight end

434
00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:55,840
Speaker 6: depth chart thinned out a bit, and I believe they

435
00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:57,879
Speaker 6: were the second most efficient team out of that, so

436
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:00,359
Speaker 6: you know he's going to see fewer stack box is.

437
00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:04,320
Speaker 6: I just love Zeke this year. And you know, if

438
00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:06,520
Speaker 6: I get Barkley at pick number three, I'm not, you know,

439
00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:09,520
Speaker 6: mad about it. I think they're they're very, very close.

440
00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:10,160
Speaker 2: But if I have the.

441
00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:12,240
Speaker 6: Second pick, I'm definitely leaning Zeke right now, just because

442
00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:13,360
Speaker 6: I think he's a bit safer.

443
00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:17,400
Speaker 5: All right, Let's talk about what I'm looking at as

444
00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:21,560
Speaker 5: a transitionary tier after these top five. I'm looking at

445
00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:24,560
Speaker 5: Derrick Henry and Clyde Edwards a layer. Both of those

446
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:28,040
Speaker 5: guys I think are locked in first rounders. Obviously, since

447
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:30,680
Speaker 5: Damian Williams opted out, I haven't seen a draft where

448
00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:32,320
Speaker 5: either one of these guys has fallen out of the

449
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:35,280
Speaker 5: first round, and so I think they you know, clearly

450
00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:38,080
Speaker 5: belong there, but you know they're not quite in that

451
00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:40,119
Speaker 5: top five. That said, I think there is a pretty

452
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:42,960
Speaker 5: big difference between these two guys and what I'm calling

453
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:45,480
Speaker 5: the mishmash tier of all of the running backs who

454
00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:48,919
Speaker 5: follow them. And so, Graham, you've talked some about Clyde

455
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 5: Edwards a layer. I want to get your thoughts on

456
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 5: Derrick Henry.

457
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, Derrick Henry is someone I've been wrong on like

458
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:57,760
Speaker 3: back to back years and I just keep getting smashed,

459
00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:00,920
Speaker 3: and I think I think I've correct this year with him.

460
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,920
Speaker 3: I think one hundred percent right locked in first round pick.

461
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:08,639
Speaker 3: It's really close between him and Clyde Edwards orlaiir right.

462
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:13,320
Speaker 3: I mean, Henry might literally double his Edwards Alari's carry total,

463
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:17,520
Speaker 3: but his red zone role is just so unbelievably good.

464
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:19,680
Speaker 3: I mean there's no chance he's going to get taken

465
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:21,600
Speaker 3: off the field in favor of Dariens and Evans like

466
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:23,880
Speaker 3: once they get inside the five and over the last

467
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:26,480
Speaker 3: couple of years, like Drrick Henry, I always go back

468
00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:29,000
Speaker 3: and forth on whether or not like some players are

469
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:31,640
Speaker 3: better at scoring touchdowns and others, and you know, back

470
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:34,240
Speaker 3: to back years we've seen you know, Derrick Henry just

471
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:37,920
Speaker 3: be a little bit better than expectation at scoring touchdowns.

472
00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:41,159
Speaker 3: I think it's really close between the two, you know.

473
00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:44,880
Speaker 3: I think the biggest question I have over Edwards Hilaire

474
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 3: is just how big his target share is going to be,

475
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 3: because I think he's going to walk into fifty targets.

476
00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:52,480
Speaker 3: But if he has a ceiling of seventy in that offense,

477
00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:54,639
Speaker 3: I mean there's a chance that he could like legitimately

478
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:59,159
Speaker 3: lead to the league in touchdowns. I love, I like Henry.

479
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:01,879
Speaker 3: I've tried to correct course on him and take taken

480
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,399
Speaker 3: him as much as I can at like seven eight

481
00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 3: nine overall when he slips that far, just because I'm

482
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 3: just tired of being wrong on him and his volume

483
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 3: is so safe. But I do think it's really close

484
00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:15,159
Speaker 3: between the two, and I really I don't think you

485
00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 3: could really go wrong by going with Edwards h Lair

486
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:20,200
Speaker 3: over Henry, just because I mean it's you know, he's

487
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:23,480
Speaker 3: in the perfect situation, and I mean he's one of

488
00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:25,959
Speaker 3: the best route runners that have come out of the NFL,

489
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:28,560
Speaker 3: excuse me, come out of college in the last five

490
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:31,760
Speaker 3: or six years, him getting single coverage against linebackers and

491
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:34,479
Speaker 3: safeties is just going to be. It's gonna be. It's

492
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 3: gonna be incredible with Mahomes back there. So I think

493
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:40,960
Speaker 3: it's really close. Henry's goal line role is maybe what

494
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 3: gives me the slight edge to him, but yeah, again

495
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:45,119
Speaker 3: it's close.

496
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 5: Can we talk a little bit about Graemy. You mentioned

497
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:50,880
Speaker 5: that goal line role, and Sean, I want to get

498
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:54,639
Speaker 5: your perspective on that, because Henry has been so consistent

499
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:58,160
Speaker 5: at scoring touchdowns over the past, you know, like one

500
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 5: and a half two seasons, especially if we just you know,

501
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,960
Speaker 5: kind of cut it look at Week fourteen of twenty

502
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 5: eighteen when he really had his breakout. Since then, Henry

503
00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:11,600
Speaker 5: has averaged twenty one point four PPR points per game

504
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 5: that doesn't include his dominant postseason, and so he is

505
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:20,320
Speaker 5: a guy who seems as if he just scores touchdowns

506
00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 5: and obviously is very efficient on the ground. Of course,

507
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 5: we also know that touchdowns can be very fickle, and

508
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 5: Henry has been a runner who has been at this

509
00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 5: point very game script dependent, and so there is the

510
00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:40,640
Speaker 5: possibility that if Tennessee gets in these situations where they're

511
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:43,919
Speaker 5: behind they can't run the ball, Henry won't have the

512
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 5: opportunity to accumulate all of that, you know, second half yardage,

513
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,959
Speaker 5: get those touchdowns. How are you approaching Derrick Henry?

514
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 6: Yeah, well, I mean let's go back to twenty eighteen.

515
00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:56,639
Speaker 6: It was a blast getting him in round six, and

516
00:24:56,680 --> 00:25:00,479
Speaker 6: then last year round four. I kept saying he's most

517
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 6: he has the highest probability of starting all sixteen games.

518
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:05,719
Speaker 6: I think I said every podcast. So I jinxed him

519
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 6: and he only played fifteen. But I mean he is

520
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:11,160
Speaker 6: the safest bet in fantasy football, so I'm still taking

521
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:13,200
Speaker 6: him at six overall. And he made a good point

522
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:15,320
Speaker 6: when it comes to the goal and carries. I did

523
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:18,400
Speaker 6: that piece of risers and followers on you know, expected

524
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:20,960
Speaker 6: touchdowns around the goal line, and he was popping in

525
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:23,679
Speaker 6: the risers. The Titans only had the They had the

526
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:27,879
Speaker 6: fourth fewest goal line attempts generated last year, which is

527
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 6: shocking considering you know how run heavy they are, so

528
00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 6: you know, I expect them to grass closer to the

529
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,159
Speaker 6: league average. So I think his goal line carries are

530
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 6: going to go up, but you know that's going to nengate.

531
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:41,440
Speaker 6: He had four long touchdowns, so you know, I don't

532
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:43,520
Speaker 6: think he's going to be able to match that necessarily,

533
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:45,960
Speaker 6: so I think it's going to sort of cancel that out.

534
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 6: But he was actually due for positive aggression in that department,

535
00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:51,120
Speaker 6: which is crazy to think about. So I think he's

536
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:54,159
Speaker 6: still a lock for you know, thirteen plus touchdowns, a

537
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 6: ton of yards. You know, it's interesting to see they

538
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:00,679
Speaker 6: drafted the Evans, but you know, he's not a bad receiver,

539
00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:03,119
Speaker 6: so he we may have yet to see his ceiling.

540
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 6: I'm not banking on it, but you know, he could

541
00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:06,880
Speaker 6: grow in the passing game. But either way, I think

542
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:08,920
Speaker 6: he's a lock for a bunch of touchdowns still, just

543
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:11,240
Speaker 6: based on the trends I've been looking at.

544
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:16,520
Speaker 5: Okay, so, Sean, you said thirteen plus touchdowns there last year,

545
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:18,840
Speaker 5: not can on the playoffs, he scored eighteen touchdowns the

546
00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:23,199
Speaker 5: year before that, twelve touchdowns. I have him projected for

547
00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:26,240
Speaker 5: twelve point six touchdowns, which I look at that number

548
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 5: and in the vacuum it feels absurd, but it seems

549
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:34,160
Speaker 5: like that's probably like twelve point six rushing touchdowns. That's

550
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:36,159
Speaker 5: probably pretty close to where you think he should be.

551
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 6: Yeah, so I have him projected for twelve point six

552
00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 6: so it sounds like a right line on that.

553
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 2: I would say, that's a good number.

554
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, okay, Ravon. You know Derrick Henry. I want to

555
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 5: get your thoughts on him, because if if there's a

556
00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 5: guy who seems as if he could totally explode with

557
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 5: even just a little more work in the passing department,

558
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:01,360
Speaker 5: it would be Derrick Henry. At the same time, we

559
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 5: look at Clyde Edwards, a layer who just seems slated

560
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 5: already to dominate as a receiver. What are your thoughts

561
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:09,399
Speaker 5: on those two guys.

562
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:12,359
Speaker 4: I mean, Derrick Henry already exploded.

563
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 7: First of all, he averaged the third most PPR points.

564
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 7: He was about a point one point two behind Dalvin

565
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 7: Cook last year twenty PPR points per game. Like I

566
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 7: think that you have to go Henry just because his

567
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 7: workload is so secure, Like like when you start getting

568
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:34,119
Speaker 7: into the twenties and carries, catches don't become quite as

569
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:36,879
Speaker 7: important because not many running backs are getting twenty touches period.

570
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:42,680
Speaker 7: So the fact that Henry, with eighteen catches, you know,

571
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:46,679
Speaker 7: barely one per game, was able to finish third among

572
00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 7: running backs in PPR points pretty much says it all.

573
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:53,120
Speaker 7: So he's a guy that in standard leagues. I think

574
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:56,080
Speaker 7: you could make the case for him as high as second,

575
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:59,679
Speaker 7: to be honest, because he's a guy that he can

576
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 7: out or Zeke in.

577
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:01,760
Speaker 4: The touchdown department.

578
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:04,680
Speaker 7: You know, Saquon is still a little bit more reliant

579
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 7: on reception volume to truly hit his ceiling.

580
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:10,720
Speaker 4: Same thing with Kamara. So Henry kind of.

581
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 7: Has a little bit of volatility where when you get

582
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:15,119
Speaker 7: into PPR, I think he still he's still that in

583
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 7: that five six range. But I think Edwards Hilaire is

584
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:20,919
Speaker 7: in a different tier just because we haven't seen it.

585
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:24,199
Speaker 7: We don't know, and there's always a possibility that he

586
00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:26,879
Speaker 7: is treated a little more like Damien last year, where

587
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:29,159
Speaker 7: they don't completely run him into the ground early on,

588
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:31,199
Speaker 7: and in the postseason we start seeing him get you know,

589
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 7: twenty twenty five touches a.

590
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:36,240
Speaker 5: Game, Graham, I actually want to ask you about Edwards Hilaiyer.

591
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 5: You know, Chris just mentioned the possibility that we haven't

592
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 5: seen it out of Edwards h Layer and so we

593
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:44,880
Speaker 5: don't know. You know, there's the possibility that maybe they

594
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:48,400
Speaker 5: don't use him as much as we would anticipate. I

595
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 5: don't even really want to compare DeAndre Washington to Edwards

596
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 5: a layer, but there are at least similar types of

597
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 5: players in the way that they are built and their

598
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:02,760
Speaker 5: skill sets. Obviously Edwards a Laire is better, but I

599
00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:05,240
Speaker 5: would say that that Washington could be used in a

600
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 5: similar way to Edwards a layer, which means that maybe

601
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:11,520
Speaker 5: the Chiefs would be tempted not to use Edwards a

602
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 5: layer as much as they could. How worried are you

603
00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 5: about the usage for Ceh?

604
00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:21,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean we haven't seen Edwards a Laire you

605
00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 3: know on the you know, an NFL field. We haven't

606
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 3: seen DeAndre Washington what his role is going to be,

607
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:30,240
Speaker 3: but we know, you know, just how valuable this role

608
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:33,200
Speaker 3: will be. I mean over the last like even if

609
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 3: you just look at the years that you know, Patrick

610
00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 3: Mahomes wasn't the quarterback in Kansas City. They're running backs

611
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 3: in this scheme have just been consistent producers. I mean,

612
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 3: Jamal Charles from twenty thirteen to twenty fifteen was top

613
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:49,960
Speaker 3: eight and Fantasy points per game. Spencer Ware was a

614
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 3: top twenty back at twenty sixteen. Then they had Kareem Hunt,

615
00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:54,960
Speaker 3: he was a top eight back. You know last year

616
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 3: of the last two seasons when Damian Williams has gotten starts.

617
00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:02,920
Speaker 3: He's produced like a top five running back. I actually

618
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:05,000
Speaker 3: went back and looked and over the last two years,

619
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:08,160
Speaker 3: when he's played over fifty percent of Kansas City snaps,

620
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 3: he's averaged like twenty one point five Fantasy points per game.

621
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 3: That would have made him the RB two over Dalvin

622
00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 3: Cook last year. So sure, yeah, we haven't seen Edwards Laiir.

623
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 3: We haven't seen what Deander Washington's role is going to be.

624
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:26,479
Speaker 3: But I kind of expect Kansas City to use Edwards

625
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:28,719
Speaker 3: A Laire like they used Kareem Hunt in his rookie year.

626
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 3: Hunt played on like sixty five seventy percent of snaps,

627
00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 3: didn't play a ton in like obvious pass blocking situations.

628
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:38,480
Speaker 3: I think Washington will be, you know, on the field,

629
00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 3: maybe some hurry up and some pass blocking situations where

630
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 3: Edwards Laire needs some time to get used to it.

631
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 3: But I'm fully expecting him to just be unleashed in

632
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 3: this offense. And I mean, we've just seen it. We

633
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 3: know that the KC running back every year is a

634
00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 3: top eight producer, and I think the ceiling is even

635
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 3: higher now with Mahomes at the controls. I mean, the dude,

636
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 3: is he's the most efficient quarterback in NFL history. I mean,

637
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 3: there are going to be so many lay up scoring opportunities,

638
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 3: not only in the red zone, but like, you know,

639
00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:09,479
Speaker 3: closer on the other side of the thirty forty yard line.

640
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 3: I mean this, this team is gonna this, This offense

641
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 3: is gonna hum and Edwards Alaire is gonna draw a

642
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:16,320
Speaker 3: lot of single coverage. I just I don't know, I do.

643
00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:17,959
Speaker 3: I hear you that it's, you know, one of those

644
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 3: things we haven't seen before. But you know, we do

645
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:21,640
Speaker 3: know how valuable the role is, and we do know

646
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 3: how valuable Chiefs running backs have been. And for that reason,

647
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:28,200
Speaker 3: I think Edwards Laire and Henry are really close.

648
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:34,080
Speaker 5: Sean Graham just mentioned there some of these scoring opportunities

649
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 5: that Edwards a Lair could have, and so I want

650
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:39,840
Speaker 5: to get your since on this. We've seen obviously, Jamal

651
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:43,440
Speaker 5: Charles have some big touchdown seasons. Uh, you know, we've

652
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 5: seen Spencer ware, Kareem Hunt, Damian Williams score touchdowns in

653
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:51,680
Speaker 5: that offense. I look at Edwards Laire and I think

654
00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 5: that even though he's not a big guy, he's probably

655
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 5: still built to be able to score touchdowns. There's nothing

656
00:31:57,360 --> 00:31:58,720
Speaker 5: that you look at him and you think this guy

657
00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 5: can't score touchdowns, And given the offense that he's in,

658
00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 5: I imagine he's going to score a lot of touchdowns.

659
00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:10,320
Speaker 5: So my question to you, total touchdowns that you are

660
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 5: projecting for Edwards a layer this year? Where's that number?

661
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:15,640
Speaker 5: How high is it?

662
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:20,480
Speaker 6: So total touchdowns, I have it around eleven, so just

663
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:23,479
Speaker 6: short of eight rushing touchdowns and then I believe two

664
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 6: and a half receiving or even three and a half

665
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:30,280
Speaker 6: receiving touchdowns. So with him, I'm giving him sixty five

666
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 6: percent of the goal line work, which is pretty high.

667
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:34,560
Speaker 6: I think I'm being pretty generous there. I would be

668
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:37,360
Speaker 6: a little bit worried about Darrel Williams. They loved using

669
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:38,800
Speaker 6: him around the goal line last year and he was

670
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:40,720
Speaker 6: pretty effective, so that would be kind of the crutch

671
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 6: in that argument. But yeah, obviously, anytime you have, you know,

672
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 6: a workhorse back on this Chiefs offense, they're going to

673
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:50,160
Speaker 6: be exposed to a ton of easy touchdown opportunities. So

674
00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:52,479
Speaker 6: certainly his ceiling is much higher. I mean, I wouldn't

675
00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 6: be shocked if he were able to put up fifteen plus.

676
00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 6: But I'm being a little bit conservative, and you know,

677
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 6: I'm giving him roughly six five percent of the goal

678
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 6: on carries. But he's gonna be able to create explosive runs,

679
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:07,160
Speaker 6: so you know, he's more likely to score longer touchdowns,

680
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:10,120
Speaker 6: especially in the passing game. So I think, you know,

681
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 6: the ceiling for him is much higher than my medium productions.

682
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 5: Right now, all right, let's get into the tier of

683
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:18,880
Speaker 5: players I'm just calling the Mishmash tier. I don't want

684
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:21,280
Speaker 5: to say that this is uh Sean what was the

685
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:23,800
Speaker 5: tier that you had, the Frozen Pond tier. I don't

686
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:26,560
Speaker 5: this isn't likely, This isn't the Frozen Pond tier, but

687
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:30,959
Speaker 5: this is it's something. It's like a quicksand tier because

688
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 5: you know, we talked about Nick Chubb earlier, who was

689
00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 5: in this tier before I kind of bumped down. But

690
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 5: the thing is he's he's still in this tier. He's

691
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 5: just not in the the guys that are in the

692
00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 5: top twelve. But you know, you have Miles Sanders, Joe Mixon, Kenyan,

693
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 5: Drake Josh Jacobs, Austin Eckler who got put in here

694
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:51,760
Speaker 5: in an hounoriable But really this tier extends down beyond

695
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 5: some of these guys and Graham, you mentioned Nick Chubb

696
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:58,160
Speaker 5: as someone you were looking to avoid. This feels like

697
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:02,640
Speaker 5: a tier of players where you have to get this

698
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:06,320
Speaker 5: pick right. If you pick the wrong running back, that

699
00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:09,120
Speaker 5: could end up being the difference between winning your Fantasy

700
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:12,840
Speaker 5: championship and losing in the semi finals. And all of

701
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:14,600
Speaker 5: these guys, you can look at them and see how

702
00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:16,839
Speaker 5: they might finish in the top five. But a lot

703
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 5: of these guys I think you could also look at

704
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 5: and see how they finish outside of the top twelve,

705
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:24,520
Speaker 5: maybe outside of the top eighteen. And so I want

706
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:27,479
Speaker 5: to get your sense on the guys in this tier.

707
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,839
Speaker 5: You obviously like Eckler, I would say the most out

708
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:33,320
Speaker 5: of anyone in this tier. You talked about him earlier.

709
00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:36,840
Speaker 5: Outside of Eckler, who do you really like out of

710
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:39,480
Speaker 5: Sanders mixing Drake and Jacobs.

711
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:44,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I actually like Sanders more than Eckler, quite

712
00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 3: a bit more. Actually, I think Miles Sanders should be

713
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 3: like a locked in top eight, top nine pick. I

714
00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 3: mean the Eagles have been linked to running backs that

715
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:54,720
Speaker 3: they won't potentially sign this offseason. They haven't pulled the trigger.

716
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:56,840
Speaker 3: I mean they were linked to de Vonta Freeman. He

717
00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:58,560
Speaker 3: wanted too much money. It didn't work out. You know,

718
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:01,360
Speaker 3: they were linked to hide. He went to the Seahawks.

719
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:04,520
Speaker 3: You know they're gonna they're gonna use Miles Sanders as

720
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:06,680
Speaker 3: a workhorse back. And I just find it so funny

721
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:09,120
Speaker 3: that people keep coming back to the same narrative that

722
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:11,960
Speaker 3: Doug Peterson hates running You know, he hates using running

723
00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 3: backs as work courses. He always uses running back by committee.

724
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:18,960
Speaker 3: But any literally, any coach in the NFL over the

725
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:20,719
Speaker 3: last couple of years that had the running backs that

726
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:22,799
Speaker 3: he's had would have done the same exact thing. I mean,

727
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:26,800
Speaker 3: you've got Corey Clement, You've got you know, a Windell Smallwood,

728
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:29,439
Speaker 3: a bunch of guys that just like cannot handle full

729
00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:31,200
Speaker 3: time roles. Of course you're gonna go with a running

730
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:34,360
Speaker 3: back by committee. Last year, when Jordan Howard got hurt,

731
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:37,919
Speaker 3: Miles Sanders just took off. I mean he was top

732
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:40,920
Speaker 3: ten and touches, top ten and PPR points and he

733
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:43,400
Speaker 3: was actually fourth among all running backs over their final

734
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:47,120
Speaker 3: seven games and routes run. I think only Christian McCaffrey,

735
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:50,680
Speaker 3: Zeke and four Nette had more routes run than Sanders

736
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 3: in that spand so I'm really high on Sanders, a

737
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:59,879
Speaker 3: little bit lower on on Chubb and Jacobs, but yeah,

738
00:35:59,880 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 3: I think you nailed it, though, Matt, like this tier

739
00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:04,279
Speaker 3: is going to make or break teams and getting this

740
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 3: pick right is going to be huge.

741
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:12,160
Speaker 5: Sean, you have Sanders ranked twelve, so you're a little

742
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:15,839
Speaker 5: more pessimistic on him. Can you talk about how it

743
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 5: is that you came to that ranking.

744
00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:22,040
Speaker 6: Yeah, Well, just a disclaimer, all of these running backs

745
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:24,880
Speaker 6: are separated by about a point, so I think your

746
00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 6: missmash tier is appropriate, but I would not compare them

747
00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 6: to the Frozen Pond here. We have to remember that

748
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:34,320
Speaker 6: was twenty eighteen where Jordan Howard, Alex Collins on the Ravens,

749
00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:38,480
Speaker 6: and Royce Freeman were kind of being drafted upper RB two.

750
00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:40,600
Speaker 6: I think this is a good problem to have. I

751
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 6: think all these backs are good, Like I want all

752
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:45,960
Speaker 6: these backs, but the problem is, like you said, it's

753
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:47,400
Speaker 6: so easy to get one of them to fall to

754
00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:49,400
Speaker 6: you later on. So I don't like picking up the

755
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:51,840
Speaker 6: top of this tier. So I have Miles Sanders just

756
00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 6: a tad lower. I've said it a million times. I've

757
00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 6: been trained not to trust Doug Peterson at all, and

758
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:00,120
Speaker 6: It's scary because if you look at the depth chart, mean,

759
00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:02,840
Speaker 6: right now, it's only Boston Scott and Corey Clement, So

760
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:05,919
Speaker 6: I don't know how Miles Sanders, you know, won't see

761
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:08,040
Speaker 6: a massive workload, so I do draft him a little

762
00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:08,680
Speaker 6: bit higher than this.

763
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:11,560
Speaker 2: So I'm just a bit cautious with him.

764
00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:14,120
Speaker 6: But you know, I think Doug Peterson finally found a

765
00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:17,800
Speaker 6: workhorse back. You know, he was compared to Sequon Barkley

766
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:19,960
Speaker 6: coming out of college. I mean he played for Penn State,

767
00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:22,680
Speaker 6: a very similar skill set, and he's actually the only

768
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:25,839
Speaker 6: other rookie running back since Sequon Barkley the past ten

769
00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 6: years to rush for eight hundred yards and receive five

770
00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:31,239
Speaker 6: hundred yards. So I think he proved in his rookie

771
00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 6: season that he's the real deal, and I would be

772
00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:36,319
Speaker 6: comfortable drafting him as a top ten running back. It's

773
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 6: just like I said, with Doug Peterson, we don't know

774
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:41,440
Speaker 6: if they're going to bring in Lamar Miller, Devonte Freeman

775
00:37:41,640 --> 00:37:43,600
Speaker 6: and kind of make it more of a committee, But

776
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:45,760
Speaker 6: right now, I would say he's due.

777
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 2: To be the workhorse back, all right.

778
00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 5: I looked at Miles Sanders and I see that he

779
00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:53,520
Speaker 5: had over thirteen hundred scrimmage yards last year as a rookie,

780
00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 5: which is really impressive, and it's normal to assume that

781
00:37:57,160 --> 00:38:00,160
Speaker 5: in a guy's second year that number would go up.

782
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:03,279
Speaker 5: So on the one hand, I want to be incredibly

783
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:06,520
Speaker 5: bullish on him, especially because he was also great in

784
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:12,040
Speaker 5: college and is very athletic, But in my projections, I

785
00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:14,880
Speaker 5: just I can't do it. Like I give him what

786
00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:17,920
Speaker 5: I view as a decent target chair, a decent market

787
00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:21,319
Speaker 5: share of Russia's and he doesn't crack into my top ten.

788
00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:24,000
Speaker 5: And Rayvon, I'm looking at your rankings, you have him

789
00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 5: at number fifteen, so it seems as if you know,

790
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:30,880
Speaker 5: relative to Graham, relative to Sean, you are out on

791
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:31,920
Speaker 5: Miles Sanders.

792
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:34,880
Speaker 7: I don't think it's that again. I think I'm with

793
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:36,400
Speaker 7: Sean and that these running backs just.

794
00:38:36,360 --> 00:38:38,399
Speaker 4: Aren't separated by much.

795
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:39,960
Speaker 7: And I mean, if you look at the guys I

796
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 7: have in front of him, you know, after Edwards, Zulaire

797
00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:47,120
Speaker 7: at seven, Ekler, mix in Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Kenyan, Drake,

798
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:50,440
Speaker 7: Josh Jacobs, and Chris Carson like those are half PPR.

799
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:53,600
Speaker 7: So I'm Sanders moves up a couple spots, you know,

800
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:57,960
Speaker 7: over Jacobs in in PPR, So it's not really like

801
00:38:58,080 --> 00:39:01,319
Speaker 7: a I'm out on him, but I think kind of

802
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:05,880
Speaker 7: we could see a similar situation to last year, you know,

803
00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 7: where he is used as a like featured back in

804
00:39:09,200 --> 00:39:11,759
Speaker 7: some games where it's more like a little closer with

805
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:13,840
Speaker 7: him and Scott in some other games like it was

806
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:14,600
Speaker 7: with him and Howard.

807
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:16,279
Speaker 4: So they're just a little bit.

808
00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:19,240
Speaker 7: Of uncertainty, Whereas I think, you know, guys like Carson

809
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:22,080
Speaker 7: Jacobs and even Drake based on what he did, you

810
00:39:22,120 --> 00:39:25,239
Speaker 7: know once he was acquired by Arizona, these guys are

811
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 7: just locked in for you know, touches near twenty, near

812
00:39:29,200 --> 00:39:32,120
Speaker 7: the twenties, Whereas I think Sanders a little a little

813
00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:34,920
Speaker 7: more uncertain with that. So he just kind of at

814
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:36,279
Speaker 7: the at the back end of that tier for me.

815
00:39:36,320 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 7: But it's a tier like I don't actually think it's

816
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:41,040
Speaker 7: gonna be like a make or break tier, because I

817
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 7: do think all of these running backs are pretty solid,

818
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:45,640
Speaker 7: pretty high for guys. The guy I have ranked after

819
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:50,719
Speaker 7: Sanders is Leonard Fournette, and that in Wayveon Bell and

820
00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:52,799
Speaker 7: those two are I think where you might see like

821
00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:55,520
Speaker 7: more of a tear drop, just because I think there's

822
00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:57,960
Speaker 7: kind of you can kind of see the red flags

823
00:39:57,960 --> 00:39:58,840
Speaker 7: with those guys.

824
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:04,480
Speaker 5: Okay, one, I'm trying to create some tension, some confrontation,

825
00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:06,680
Speaker 5: and you guys are not allowing me to do that.

826
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 5: That's number one. Number two, here's maybe another way to

827
00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:15,920
Speaker 5: think about this tier of running backs, Rayvon May, I

828
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:18,880
Speaker 5: think you're right that this isn't necessarily a make or

829
00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:22,879
Speaker 5: break tier within the tier. I think what actually might

830
00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:25,120
Speaker 5: be make or break is if you draft any of

831
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:28,480
Speaker 5: these running backs. And let me put some more context

832
00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 5: on that, I think there are running backs that you

833
00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 5: can get later in the draft that will be pretty

834
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:37,560
Speaker 5: close to what these guys will provide here. And so

835
00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:40,919
Speaker 5: instead of drafting any of these running backs, I would

836
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:44,520
Speaker 5: rather draft wide receivers and then get my running backs

837
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:47,640
Speaker 5: a little bit later. Rabon, do you have thoughts on

838
00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:48,320
Speaker 5: that strategy?

839
00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:52,239
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't think I can agree with that one.

840
00:40:52,360 --> 00:40:56,000
Speaker 7: Like that you got your tension because like, what which

841
00:40:56,080 --> 00:40:58,200
Speaker 7: running backs are you talking about? Way you're on that

842
00:40:58,200 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 7: could replicate that? And then compare that, you know, take

843
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:03,440
Speaker 7: that question and compare that to the wide receivers that

844
00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:05,759
Speaker 7: go in rounds four through seven. I think, you know,

845
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:09,400
Speaker 7: especially once the top four wide receivers are off the board,

846
00:41:09,760 --> 00:41:12,040
Speaker 7: and or you can count DeAndre Hopkins and that like

847
00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:16,320
Speaker 7: starting with Godwin Evans Gallaude, Like those guys are are

848
00:41:16,560 --> 00:41:19,239
Speaker 7: I think a lot more comparable to guys you know

849
00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:23,120
Speaker 7: going rounds two, three, four, rounds later. You know, Odell Beckham,

850
00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:26,160
Speaker 7: Tyler Lockett, you know guys in like different ranges that

851
00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:27,960
Speaker 7: could you know, Cooper Cup. These guys have put up

852
00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:30,680
Speaker 7: you know, top ten seasons and could put up top

853
00:41:30,680 --> 00:41:31,880
Speaker 7: ten seasons at wide receiver.

854
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:35,160
Speaker 4: Where like, is David Montgomery really going to do that?

855
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 6: Is?

856
00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:39,720
Speaker 7: I mean, you know, like, who are these running backs

857
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:42,040
Speaker 7: that you're counting on to replicate the running backs in

858
00:41:42,080 --> 00:41:43,160
Speaker 7: this year's production.

859
00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:45,680
Speaker 5: That was totally strong man. You know, I'm not talking

860
00:41:45,680 --> 00:41:46,799
Speaker 5: about David Montgomery.

861
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:48,680
Speaker 7: I would hope, I mean no, but like seriously, like

862
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:51,839
Speaker 7: because after then it's like Gurley, which I'm out.

863
00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:54,080
Speaker 4: You know, I'm out on Gurley. I think the red

864
00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:55,120
Speaker 4: flags are there.

865
00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 7: You know Bell and I like, I like Bell, But

866
00:41:59,400 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 7: you know, David Johnson, he was he's kind of broken.

867
00:42:03,239 --> 00:42:04,799
Speaker 7: I think he'll get carries, but he might not be

868
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:08,000
Speaker 7: like super efficient with them. You have a bunch of

869
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:09,960
Speaker 7: rookies that maybe you know, you could make a case

870
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:12,759
Speaker 7: for cam Akers, but not a guy that is like

871
00:42:12,840 --> 00:42:13,720
Speaker 7: guaranteed anything.

872
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:16,520
Speaker 4: Yet same thing for Swift Ronald Jones.

873
00:42:16,560 --> 00:42:18,880
Speaker 7: I don't think he gets to the levels of these backs,

874
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:21,239
Speaker 7: like I think the touch ceilings are just lower for

875
00:42:21,600 --> 00:42:23,719
Speaker 7: guys outside this range. Even if it's I think the

876
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:25,799
Speaker 7: only reason maybe you would go away or people are

877
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:27,640
Speaker 7: going to go away is because they don't know which

878
00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:29,800
Speaker 7: one to pick. But that's I don't think that's a

879
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:32,000
Speaker 7: good reason. I think the answer is any of them

880
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:33,840
Speaker 7: are fine. I think it's the next tier where you

881
00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:34,840
Speaker 7: start getting dangerous.

882
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:38,080
Speaker 5: Okay, So I like James Connor. I think he has

883
00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:41,680
Speaker 5: a pretty good chance of finishing as if he is

884
00:42:41,719 --> 00:42:44,239
Speaker 5: a guy in the top ten. I mean, I'm gonna

885
00:42:44,280 --> 00:42:46,600
Speaker 5: be alone on an island here, but I actually think

886
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:51,799
Speaker 5: Le'Veon Bell is pretty underrated this year. Ronald Jones. I mean,

887
00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:54,600
Speaker 5: I'm taking my life in my own hands if I

888
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:57,560
Speaker 5: want to be on that hill. But I'm going to

889
00:42:57,640 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 5: be on that hill this year. But James Connor is

890
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:03,879
Speaker 5: the main guy that I think is really undervalued, and

891
00:43:04,040 --> 00:43:06,799
Speaker 5: if I can get him later, I would rather take

892
00:43:06,920 --> 00:43:11,240
Speaker 5: Julio Jones now instead of one of these running backs.

893
00:43:11,400 --> 00:43:14,000
Speaker 5: I don't know, Graham, Graham, do you have thoughts on

894
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:17,000
Speaker 5: just kind of the comparative value of some of these

895
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:19,800
Speaker 5: running backs here versus the wide receivers who are going

896
00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:20,680
Speaker 5: in this tier.

897
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:22,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, to your point, where like the first guy I

898
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:24,640
Speaker 3: thought of when you brought up, you know, maybe I

899
00:43:24,719 --> 00:43:28,080
Speaker 3: want to fade these you know, late first early second

900
00:43:28,160 --> 00:43:29,920
Speaker 3: round backs. The first one I thought of was Connor.

901
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:31,920
Speaker 3: I'd also had Chris Carson to that mix. I mean,

902
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:34,280
Speaker 3: I know he's coming off a hip injury, but Rashad

903
00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:36,759
Speaker 3: Penny's on the pup list already. The only thing they

904
00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 3: really did this offseason is Zach Carlos Hyde, who's been

905
00:43:39,719 --> 00:43:41,440
Speaker 3: you know, he's been a fine back, but he's a

906
00:43:41,480 --> 00:43:44,319
Speaker 3: replacement level guy. I mean, when Penny is out, Chris

907
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:48,520
Speaker 3: Carson plays, you know, his snapshare increases, his targets actually

908
00:43:48,520 --> 00:43:50,560
Speaker 3: increased too. I mean he's he's basically a lock for

909
00:43:50,640 --> 00:43:52,480
Speaker 3: like twenty to twenty five touches and he goes in

910
00:43:52,480 --> 00:43:56,000
Speaker 3: the fourth round of drafts. I'd also add Jonathan Taylor

911
00:43:56,040 --> 00:44:00,719
Speaker 3: to that. I mean, man like, Jonathan Taylor is Superman

912
00:44:00,800 --> 00:44:03,359
Speaker 3: playing football. I mean, the dude is he's gonna run

913
00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:06,120
Speaker 3: circles around Marlon Mack and yeah, sure, Marlon Mack and

914
00:44:06,320 --> 00:44:08,560
Speaker 3: Nai Hemes, they're gonna play a bit, especially early in

915
00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:11,200
Speaker 3: the year. But I think there's a chance Jonathan Taylor

916
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:13,839
Speaker 3: has like a Nick Chubb type rookie season where maybe

917
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:16,440
Speaker 3: weeks one through six, one through eight, he's kind of

918
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:19,480
Speaker 3: a low end Derby two. But I mean there's gonna

919
00:44:19,480 --> 00:44:22,680
Speaker 3: come a time this year where Jonathan Taylor just gets unleashed.

920
00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:27,000
Speaker 3: And I was in the pros Versus Joe's Draft, which

921
00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:29,840
Speaker 3: is a tight end premium draft, and I got Jonathan

922
00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:33,799
Speaker 3: Taylor and Carson got Carson in round three, Taylor round four.

923
00:44:33,880 --> 00:44:35,799
Speaker 3: Taylor usually goes in the third round, which I'm kind

924
00:44:35,800 --> 00:44:37,279
Speaker 3: of out on, but if he starts slipping in the

925
00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:41,239
Speaker 3: fourth round, I mean, that's a big buy. But I

926
00:44:41,239 --> 00:44:43,719
Speaker 3: think in general, I think Raybond is right that this

927
00:44:43,800 --> 00:44:47,319
Speaker 3: tier you kind of can't go wrong in the sense

928
00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:49,319
Speaker 3: that there's a lot of depth here. But I do

929
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:52,560
Speaker 3: think there's some guys like Chubb and maybe Jacob's to

930
00:44:52,680 --> 00:44:54,960
Speaker 3: a lesser extent, and especially you know somebody we haven't

931
00:44:54,960 --> 00:44:58,000
Speaker 3: even talked about, Aaron Jones, that have just significantly lower

932
00:44:58,040 --> 00:45:00,880
Speaker 3: floors than the upper Here is where you know, we're

933
00:45:00,920 --> 00:45:03,880
Speaker 3: talking about Henry and Cook and Kamara. I mean Aaron Jones,

934
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:05,919
Speaker 3: man like talk about a guy who got super lucky

935
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:08,560
Speaker 3: in the touchdown apartment last year. His his touchdowns are

936
00:45:08,560 --> 00:45:10,680
Speaker 3: going way down, and then they just added AJ Dillon.

937
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:14,120
Speaker 3: I mean, that's that's someone that I'm like completely avoiding.

938
00:45:14,800 --> 00:45:15,960
Speaker 4: Oh god, he did it.

939
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:18,000
Speaker 7: He said the magic words for even and I haven't

940
00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:21,239
Speaker 7: liked an argument. Like every podcast, I agree, I think

941
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:23,840
Speaker 7: anyone's touchdowns are going to regress from what you know,

942
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:24,839
Speaker 7: what Jones did last year.

943
00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:26,080
Speaker 4: But I don't think Dylan is a factor.

944
00:45:26,520 --> 00:45:26,840
Speaker 3: That's it.

945
00:45:27,719 --> 00:45:28,960
Speaker 4: I'll keep it short and sweep.

946
00:45:29,320 --> 00:45:31,000
Speaker 3: I mean I think Dylan. I don't think Dylan's very

947
00:45:31,000 --> 00:45:33,240
Speaker 3: good either. I think he got completely over drafted.

948
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:35,879
Speaker 4: Oh okay here for a second.

949
00:45:35,719 --> 00:45:38,400
Speaker 3: No, no, I mean because I thought Dylan was like

950
00:45:38,719 --> 00:45:40,480
Speaker 3: in the yards creative. I mean, he was like bottom

951
00:45:40,520 --> 00:45:42,560
Speaker 3: of this class and arts created preten bottom in the class,

952
00:45:42,560 --> 00:45:45,400
Speaker 3: and the stack was forced. He doesn't catch the ball like,

953
00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:48,399
Speaker 3: oh my, I didn't understand. I don't understand. I didn't

954
00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:50,000
Speaker 3: I didn't understand the pick at all. I mean, Aaron

955
00:45:50,080 --> 00:45:52,560
Speaker 3: Jones has been one of the most efficient players in

956
00:45:52,560 --> 00:45:54,719
Speaker 3: the league since he's come into the league. I'm with

957
00:45:54,760 --> 00:45:56,000
Speaker 3: you that I don't think Dylan's going to be that

958
00:45:56,040 --> 00:45:57,640
Speaker 3: big of a factor. But for better or worse, the

959
00:45:57,640 --> 00:45:59,200
Speaker 3: Packers are going to give him the ball, like they're

960
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:00,879
Speaker 3: going to give him the ball. I think I dreft

961
00:46:00,920 --> 00:46:01,759
Speaker 3: him in the second round.

962
00:46:02,360 --> 00:46:05,399
Speaker 7: They like he's the third spring running back. That guy

963
00:46:05,440 --> 00:46:07,319
Speaker 7: may not get more than like two touches a game.

964
00:46:07,840 --> 00:46:11,640
Speaker 7: Like Like, I don't think his draft cedigory means much

965
00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:14,960
Speaker 7: when you consider like the how much of a how

966
00:46:15,040 --> 00:46:18,520
Speaker 7: much like input the front office has versus before that

967
00:46:18,520 --> 00:46:21,520
Speaker 7: that's like in this particular case, sometimes it matters more

968
00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:22,560
Speaker 7: in this one.

969
00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 4: I just don't think.

970
00:46:23,640 --> 00:46:25,799
Speaker 3: I guess, I guess I see the Dylan pick is

971
00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:28,600
Speaker 3: more of like an indictment on Jamal Williams than anything, because,

972
00:46:28,600 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 3: like Jamal Williams has been pretty meh on his touches,

973
00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:32,799
Speaker 3: So maybe that's what it is, but I.

974
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:35,320
Speaker 7: Think it's I honestly think it's more so that Jones

975
00:46:35,320 --> 00:46:37,560
Speaker 7: played so well and has played so well that they

976
00:46:37,640 --> 00:46:40,520
Speaker 7: pretty much know that he's gonna want money and they're probably,

977
00:46:40,600 --> 00:46:42,759
Speaker 7: you know, looking ahead, And I think I really think

978
00:46:42,760 --> 00:46:44,520
Speaker 7: that's what it is. I mean, I couldn't spit, but

979
00:46:45,120 --> 00:46:47,839
Speaker 7: that I just don't see aj Dillon like cutting into

980
00:46:47,840 --> 00:46:50,120
Speaker 7: Aaron Jones in any way, and perhaps not even Williams,

981
00:46:50,120 --> 00:46:52,680
Speaker 7: because honestly, I think Lafour was really happy with the

982
00:46:52,680 --> 00:46:53,920
Speaker 7: way Williams play last year as.

983
00:46:53,840 --> 00:46:57,120
Speaker 5: Well, really glad that we could get some Aaron Jones

984
00:46:57,160 --> 00:46:59,600
Speaker 5: talk on this podcast if I was. If there's one

985
00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:01,960
Speaker 5: thing that we had been missing on recent shows, it

986
00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:05,600
Speaker 5: was some Aaron Jones conversation. Uh, Sean, I want to

987
00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:11,200
Speaker 5: get your thoughts on h Okay. Actually one second, I

988
00:47:11,239 --> 00:47:14,600
Speaker 5: think there is a way, Graham in which, uh, you

989
00:47:14,680 --> 00:47:17,560
Speaker 5: can screw up with this tier. And I would say

990
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:20,680
Speaker 5: that it's drafting early in the tier instead of just

991
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:23,359
Speaker 5: waiting to get a running back in this tier near

992
00:47:23,440 --> 00:47:24,160
Speaker 5: the bottom of it.

993
00:47:25,440 --> 00:47:27,759
Speaker 3: That's a fair point. That's the fair I think. You know,

994
00:47:28,040 --> 00:47:30,479
Speaker 3: if you're drafting Aaron Jones at eighth overall and Josh

995
00:47:30,560 --> 00:47:33,120
Speaker 3: Jacobs comes back and you're on the board of fifteen

996
00:47:33,160 --> 00:47:35,839
Speaker 3: and Josh Jacobs is still there, that's that's the right point. Yeah,

997
00:47:35,880 --> 00:47:37,359
Speaker 3: I think you're right about that. Yeah.

998
00:47:37,360 --> 00:47:39,960
Speaker 5: I think that's the way that I would approach this tier.

999
00:47:40,680 --> 00:47:41,000
Speaker 3: Sean.

1000
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:42,799
Speaker 5: I want to get your thoughts on some of these

1001
00:47:42,840 --> 00:47:44,839
Speaker 5: other guys that we haven't talked about. So we talked

1002
00:47:44,840 --> 00:47:48,080
Speaker 5: about Sanders, we talked about Eckler, but they're still mixing,

1003
00:47:48,520 --> 00:47:52,040
Speaker 5: Drake and Jacobs. You know, out of these three, is

1004
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:54,680
Speaker 5: there one that really stands out to you as the

1005
00:47:54,680 --> 00:47:56,040
Speaker 5: one you like the most?

1006
00:47:56,320 --> 00:47:57,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, Mixing, Mixing for sure.

1007
00:47:59,040 --> 00:48:01,759
Speaker 6: And with Mixing, I'm you know, a bit cautious with

1008
00:48:01,840 --> 00:48:05,200
Speaker 6: them because Geo Bernard still exists and whether people like

1009
00:48:05,239 --> 00:48:07,319
Speaker 6: it or not, he's still on the field, you know,

1010
00:48:07,480 --> 00:48:10,880
Speaker 6: thirty five to fifty percent of the snaps, so you

1011
00:48:10,920 --> 00:48:14,560
Speaker 6: know he limits his receiving upside. Mixing only had three

1012
00:48:14,600 --> 00:48:16,799
Speaker 6: games where we had four more catches, and when you

1013
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:19,880
Speaker 6: think about it, he's on a really bad team that

1014
00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:22,200
Speaker 6: plays from behind a lot. You really don't like that

1015
00:48:22,840 --> 00:48:25,279
Speaker 6: out of Mixing. Other than Thattt obviously he's one of

1016
00:48:25,320 --> 00:48:28,000
Speaker 6: the most talented backs in the league. I usually just

1017
00:48:28,040 --> 00:48:31,719
Speaker 6: can't stomach taking him this early. And just to weigh

1018
00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:33,520
Speaker 6: in on what you guys are talking about, with this tier,

1019
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:36,360
Speaker 6: you really only have exposure to this tier at the

1020
00:48:36,520 --> 00:48:38,560
Speaker 6: end of the first round and begin of the second,

1021
00:48:38,640 --> 00:48:41,800
Speaker 6: so you really only have one chance to get these guys,

1022
00:48:41,840 --> 00:48:43,960
Speaker 6: and there's no such thing as them coming back to you.

1023
00:48:44,080 --> 00:48:46,319
Speaker 6: So it's it's really if you're at the you know,

1024
00:48:46,400 --> 00:48:48,880
Speaker 6: the end of the first round, do you take two

1025
00:48:48,920 --> 00:48:50,879
Speaker 6: of these guys or you take one of them and

1026
00:48:51,080 --> 00:48:53,319
Speaker 6: you know, stud wide receiver or like Kelsey, I think

1027
00:48:53,719 --> 00:48:56,200
Speaker 6: that's really the decision. And you know, to be honest,

1028
00:48:56,239 --> 00:48:58,800
Speaker 6: I can get behind taking two of these guys because

1029
00:48:58,920 --> 00:49:02,120
Speaker 6: you know, we've talked about it in the past couple podcasts.

1030
00:49:02,120 --> 00:49:05,120
Speaker 6: But you know, rounds three through I would say seven,

1031
00:49:05,200 --> 00:49:08,399
Speaker 6: the wide receivers. You know, that's where I like targeting them,

1032
00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:11,720
Speaker 6: and you can't really go past that because wide receiver

1033
00:49:11,800 --> 00:49:14,640
Speaker 6: is the only position that you can't be plucking wide

1034
00:49:14,640 --> 00:49:16,759
Speaker 6: receiver one or two's later in the draft or even

1035
00:49:16,800 --> 00:49:17,280
Speaker 6: in season.

1036
00:49:17,360 --> 00:49:18,160
Speaker 2: So I think it's.

1037
00:49:18,040 --> 00:49:21,399
Speaker 6: Critical to have all your wide receivers drafted before round

1038
00:49:21,480 --> 00:49:24,560
Speaker 6: seven's complete. So I think that's that's my way of

1039
00:49:24,640 --> 00:49:26,640
Speaker 6: just kind of getting ready for that wide receiver run.

1040
00:49:26,760 --> 00:49:29,160
Speaker 6: Is I just take two running backs early and then

1041
00:49:29,239 --> 00:49:31,400
Speaker 6: just load up on receivers, and then later on in

1042
00:49:31,440 --> 00:49:34,640
Speaker 6: the draft, I'm just loading up on you know, upside

1043
00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:37,879
Speaker 6: backup running backs, those type of backs. So I think

1044
00:49:37,880 --> 00:49:39,600
Speaker 6: that's kind of a strategy I've been taking at the

1045
00:49:39,719 --> 00:49:41,840
Speaker 6: later end. So these guys are pretty valuable in that.

1046
00:49:43,960 --> 00:49:46,360
Speaker 5: Raymon, I want to get your thoughts on that trio

1047
00:49:46,600 --> 00:49:51,000
Speaker 5: of backs mixing Drake Jacobs.

1048
00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:54,200
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think I totally agree with Shawn said, like,

1049
00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:58,879
Speaker 7: I don't think there's a need to differentiate too much

1050
00:49:58,920 --> 00:49:59,720
Speaker 7: between these guys.

1051
00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:02,440
Speaker 4: It is nitpicking a little bit. Uh.

1052
00:50:02,520 --> 00:50:06,160
Speaker 7: I have Mixing at number nine, right, you know, right

1053
00:50:06,200 --> 00:50:09,600
Speaker 7: after Edwards, Lair and Ecker. I think Mixing, you know,

1054
00:50:09,640 --> 00:50:11,920
Speaker 7: he was kind of that consensus you know, number like

1055
00:50:12,000 --> 00:50:14,560
Speaker 7: guy after the top tier, you know, with Cook for

1056
00:50:14,600 --> 00:50:17,160
Speaker 7: a while, and then Edwards Ware happened, and I've come

1057
00:50:17,160 --> 00:50:19,840
Speaker 7: around on Ekwer. I think he's just got so much upside,

1058
00:50:19,880 --> 00:50:23,000
Speaker 7: you know, kind of Christian Caffrey level in the just

1059
00:50:23,000 --> 00:50:26,080
Speaker 7: based on what he can do, So mixing he's nice

1060
00:50:26,080 --> 00:50:27,680
Speaker 7: for me. I think the one concern with him is

1061
00:50:27,719 --> 00:50:30,040
Speaker 7: we've kind of seen him play a full season in

1062
00:50:30,160 --> 00:50:34,000
Speaker 7: Cincinnati's offense and not play very you know, not produce as.

1063
00:50:33,920 --> 00:50:36,680
Speaker 4: Much as we had hoped. But I think the offense

1064
00:50:36,680 --> 00:50:37,399
Speaker 4: will be a lot better.

1065
00:50:37,520 --> 00:50:40,480
Speaker 7: I'm very high on Joe Burrow, uh, And I think mixing,

1066
00:50:40,680 --> 00:50:43,560
Speaker 7: you know, with the kind of shift with Tyra Eifert

1067
00:50:43,600 --> 00:50:46,520
Speaker 7: now gone. You know, from that offense, the tight ends

1068
00:50:46,520 --> 00:50:49,840
Speaker 7: are you Soma and Drew Sample. I think whereas the

1069
00:50:49,920 --> 00:50:52,200
Speaker 7: running back was the blocker when when they when they

1070
00:50:52,719 --> 00:50:54,839
Speaker 7: left in a blocker early in the season last year,

1071
00:50:54,840 --> 00:50:56,760
Speaker 7: that kind of shifted as the year moved on, and

1072
00:50:56,840 --> 00:50:59,120
Speaker 7: now with them not really bringing in an established tight end,

1073
00:50:59,480 --> 00:51:01,719
Speaker 7: I think Mixed we will get more pass catching opportunities,

1074
00:51:01,760 --> 00:51:05,000
Speaker 7: which should boost his floor and his ceiling, even if

1075
00:51:05,000 --> 00:51:07,160
Speaker 7: he has those those bad old line games. So I

1076
00:51:07,160 --> 00:51:09,440
Speaker 7: still like Mixing as the top one just because I

1077
00:51:09,440 --> 00:51:12,040
Speaker 7: think he has a higher I mean, I like Mixing

1078
00:51:12,080 --> 00:51:14,719
Speaker 7: as the top one over over Jacobs. I think Drake

1079
00:51:14,760 --> 00:51:18,160
Speaker 7: probably has the highest, like PPR ceiling, but he's another

1080
00:51:18,200 --> 00:51:20,640
Speaker 7: guy who we haven't seen it over a full season.

1081
00:51:20,719 --> 00:51:23,040
Speaker 7: So loved what he did over the second half of

1082
00:51:23,080 --> 00:51:26,240
Speaker 7: last season and honestly wouldn't blame me if you drafted

1083
00:51:26,280 --> 00:51:29,160
Speaker 7: him over Mixing. But I have him just a little

1084
00:51:29,160 --> 00:51:30,960
Speaker 7: bit behind just because we haven't seen him kind of

1085
00:51:31,000 --> 00:51:33,799
Speaker 7: withstand that that workload that I expect him to get,

1086
00:51:33,840 --> 00:51:36,600
Speaker 7: which is, you know, playing almost every snap, which he

1087
00:51:36,640 --> 00:51:38,879
Speaker 7: did down the stretch even with Johnson and Edmonds back,

1088
00:51:39,360 --> 00:51:40,920
Speaker 7: but we just haven't seen him hold up over a

1089
00:51:40,960 --> 00:51:44,040
Speaker 7: full season with that workload. But he's highly efficient, and

1090
00:51:44,600 --> 00:51:47,600
Speaker 7: I think he definitely has the highest PPR upside of

1091
00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:50,600
Speaker 7: those three and probably the highest just overall offensive upside.

1092
00:51:50,640 --> 00:51:53,360
Speaker 7: So if you want to go Drake at number number

1093
00:51:53,400 --> 00:51:56,240
Speaker 7: nine over over mixing, I'm fine with it. But Jacobs

1094
00:51:56,320 --> 00:51:57,799
Speaker 7: is at the end just because I think his past

1095
00:51:57,880 --> 00:51:59,120
Speaker 7: catching upside is the most limited.

1096
00:52:00,040 --> 00:52:02,760
Speaker 5: All right, final question here for all three of you guys.

1097
00:52:02,800 --> 00:52:05,400
Speaker 5: It's not on the outline, but you know that's what

1098
00:52:05,440 --> 00:52:08,960
Speaker 5: I do. I improvise. I'm like Patrick Mahomes just to improvise.

1099
00:52:09,400 --> 00:52:16,200
Speaker 5: I screwed that up. Improvisational the whole improvisational Wizard. Final

1100
00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:20,080
Speaker 5: question here, not on the outline. If there's someone besides

1101
00:52:20,200 --> 00:52:23,279
Speaker 5: Austin Eckler who now is on the outline, someone not

1102
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:27,040
Speaker 5: included in the the top twelve guys that we discussed

1103
00:52:27,080 --> 00:52:30,160
Speaker 5: that you think should have or or by the end

1104
00:52:30,160 --> 00:52:33,880
Speaker 5: of the season will end up being in the top twelve.

1105
00:52:34,200 --> 00:52:36,560
Speaker 5: Which guy do you really want to talk about?

1106
00:52:36,960 --> 00:52:41,239
Speaker 3: Graham Connor is pretty close. If he plays the full

1107
00:52:41,280 --> 00:52:44,279
Speaker 3: sixteen games, it'd be pretty hard for him not to.

1108
00:52:44,400 --> 00:52:45,880
Speaker 3: I'll go a little off the board, though, and so

1109
00:52:46,000 --> 00:52:49,040
Speaker 3: Melvin Gordon, you don't give a running back eight million

1110
00:52:49,120 --> 00:52:51,440
Speaker 3: dollars per year in free agency to not make him

1111
00:52:51,480 --> 00:52:54,080
Speaker 3: your work course. I mean, if Philip Lindsay had a

1112
00:52:54,080 --> 00:52:57,960
Speaker 3: great rookie season, really struggled last year, and Denver has

1113
00:52:58,000 --> 00:53:00,200
Speaker 3: been trying to show us that they want on a

1114
00:53:00,239 --> 00:53:03,759
Speaker 3: workhorse back, and you know, they went out signed Gordon

1115
00:53:03,800 --> 00:53:05,600
Speaker 3: to a nice two year deal. He basically got a

1116
00:53:05,600 --> 00:53:09,040
Speaker 3: fully guaranteed contract, which you never see, especially at the

1117
00:53:09,120 --> 00:53:12,360
Speaker 3: running back position. And Gordon's just a better receiver than Lendsay.

1118
00:53:12,480 --> 00:53:15,479
Speaker 3: Last year, even in Gordon's you know, potentially his worst

1119
00:53:15,560 --> 00:53:19,280
Speaker 3: year since his rookie season, he was, you know, averaging

1120
00:53:19,360 --> 00:53:22,640
Speaker 3: one point four yards per route run. Lindsey was far worse,

1121
00:53:22,960 --> 00:53:24,759
Speaker 3: you know, way down the totem pole in yards per

1122
00:53:24,840 --> 00:53:27,840
Speaker 3: route run. They're gonna heavily have him heavily involved in

1123
00:53:27,880 --> 00:53:31,160
Speaker 3: the red zone. And Pat Shermer is a pass first coach.

1124
00:53:31,200 --> 00:53:33,040
Speaker 3: I mean, over the last two years he's been top

1125
00:53:33,080 --> 00:53:36,200
Speaker 3: ten in pass rate in neutral situations when the game

1126
00:53:36,239 --> 00:53:38,319
Speaker 3: is within a score, and you know they've got all

1127
00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:40,640
Speaker 3: these passing game weapons. I think Denver is gonna be

1128
00:53:40,640 --> 00:53:43,880
Speaker 3: pretty pass heavy, and I think Gordon has he doesn't

1129
00:53:43,920 --> 00:53:46,279
Speaker 3: have the ceiling that even like maybe Josh Jacobs has

1130
00:53:46,360 --> 00:53:48,520
Speaker 3: but I definitely think he could creep into like the

1131
00:53:48,560 --> 00:53:49,760
Speaker 3: top twelve, top thirteen.

1132
00:53:50,320 --> 00:53:53,200
Speaker 5: All right, Sean, what guy outside of the top twelve

1133
00:53:53,280 --> 00:53:55,920
Speaker 5: on the show sheet? Do you think we'll finish in

1134
00:53:55,960 --> 00:53:56,759
Speaker 5: the top twelve this year?

1135
00:53:56,760 --> 00:53:56,800
Speaker 6: So?

1136
00:53:57,440 --> 00:54:00,640
Speaker 2: Wait, was Nick Chubb? Does he count? Now? Nick?

1137
00:54:00,719 --> 00:54:03,000
Speaker 5: Nick Chubb is no longer on the show sheet?

1138
00:54:03,080 --> 00:54:05,080
Speaker 6: Okay, then I'm gonna add Nick Chubb back in there

1139
00:54:05,080 --> 00:54:07,480
Speaker 6: because I still think he's a top twelve back. You know,

1140
00:54:07,640 --> 00:54:10,440
Speaker 6: Kareem Hunt is my most heavily owned running back, so

1141
00:54:10,480 --> 00:54:12,360
Speaker 6: I kind of go out of my way not to

1142
00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:15,640
Speaker 6: draft Nick Chubb, but I think he definitely deserves to

1143
00:54:15,680 --> 00:54:18,560
Speaker 6: be in the top ten. Still going to dominate carries,

1144
00:54:18,840 --> 00:54:21,200
Speaker 6: and you know, Caream Hunt will limit his receptions. But

1145
00:54:21,680 --> 00:54:23,960
Speaker 6: I think with Kevin Stefanski there, this is gonna be

1146
00:54:24,000 --> 00:54:26,279
Speaker 6: a very run heavy team, so both backs can be

1147
00:54:26,719 --> 00:54:30,200
Speaker 6: fantasy relevant weekend week out. You know, I particularly like

1148
00:54:30,239 --> 00:54:32,440
Speaker 6: his touchdown upside. He's one of three backs I have

1149
00:54:32,520 --> 00:54:35,480
Speaker 6: projected for over ten touchdowns. The Browns have the second

1150
00:54:35,480 --> 00:54:37,520
Speaker 6: easiest schedule, so I think it's going to be very

1151
00:54:37,520 --> 00:54:40,160
Speaker 6: easy for them to be run heavy, and I think

1152
00:54:40,200 --> 00:54:42,560
Speaker 6: it's a good way to keep you know, Baker Mayfield's

1153
00:54:42,560 --> 00:54:46,520
Speaker 6: turnovers at Bay. So you know, I'm all behind Nick

1154
00:54:46,600 --> 00:54:49,600
Speaker 6: Chubb as a first round pick and even getting Kareem

1155
00:54:49,719 --> 00:54:51,920
Speaker 6: Hunt in the fourth or fifth round as well. I

1156
00:54:51,960 --> 00:54:54,480
Speaker 6: think that this rushing attack has that much upside. Plus

1157
00:54:54,480 --> 00:54:58,399
Speaker 6: the offensive line got Bolster and moughseason, bringing in Jack

1158
00:54:58,440 --> 00:55:00,680
Speaker 6: Conklin and drafting Jeddrick Will so I think this team

1159
00:55:00,760 --> 00:55:03,960
Speaker 6: is set up perfectly to just dominate the run game.

1160
00:55:04,040 --> 00:55:06,800
Speaker 6: So I'm not one to remove Nick Chubb from the

1161
00:55:06,840 --> 00:55:07,360
Speaker 6: top twelve.

1162
00:55:08,280 --> 00:55:11,120
Speaker 5: Okay, I feel like now I've gotten slammed on both

1163
00:55:11,120 --> 00:55:14,520
Speaker 5: sides of this year with the outline, Raven, what guy

1164
00:55:14,600 --> 00:55:16,840
Speaker 5: outside of the top twelve in our outline do you

1165
00:55:16,880 --> 00:55:18,320
Speaker 5: think we'll end up finishing there?

1166
00:55:18,600 --> 00:55:19,680
Speaker 4: Totally agree on Chubb.

1167
00:55:20,040 --> 00:55:23,120
Speaker 7: You know, I still have him eleventh, so I'm not

1168
00:55:23,480 --> 00:55:26,040
Speaker 7: totally out on him by any means. And another guy

1169
00:55:26,480 --> 00:55:30,040
Speaker 7: just outside who will have a good chance is Chris Carson.

1170
00:55:30,360 --> 00:55:33,280
Speaker 7: You know, Chris Carson is on a super run heavy team.

1171
00:55:34,040 --> 00:55:37,080
Speaker 7: You know, defense got better with the you know acquisition

1172
00:55:37,080 --> 00:55:38,000
Speaker 7: of Jamal Adams.

1173
00:55:38,520 --> 00:55:40,320
Speaker 4: Penny is going to start the year on the pup.

1174
00:55:40,320 --> 00:55:43,040
Speaker 7: As Graham mentioned, you know, Carlos Hyde, he'll kind of

1175
00:55:43,040 --> 00:55:46,240
Speaker 7: fill a role because they run a lot. But Carson's

1176
00:55:46,280 --> 00:55:49,000
Speaker 7: a guy who probably gonna get, you know, close to

1177
00:55:49,040 --> 00:55:51,640
Speaker 7: twenty touches the game as he's been doing, and his

1178
00:55:51,920 --> 00:55:54,879
Speaker 7: workload in the receiving game increased last year, and he's

1179
00:55:54,920 --> 00:55:57,520
Speaker 7: been very productive when he's on the field. So could

1180
00:55:57,520 --> 00:55:59,960
Speaker 7: certainly see him, you know, weep frogging a couple of

1181
00:56:00,080 --> 00:56:00,680
Speaker 7: those backs.

1182
00:56:00,800 --> 00:56:02,600
Speaker 4: It's really going to come down to health more than anything.

1183
00:56:02,640 --> 00:56:04,600
Speaker 7: I don't think any of these guys that we've talked

1184
00:56:04,640 --> 00:56:08,120
Speaker 7: about is like, has any major red flags to the

1185
00:56:08,200 --> 00:56:10,680
Speaker 7: level of like a four net a Bell or a

1186
00:56:10,760 --> 00:56:11,320
Speaker 7: Todd Growy.

1187
00:56:11,360 --> 00:56:13,800
Speaker 4: So it's just going to be who stays healthy who doesn't.

1188
00:56:14,719 --> 00:56:16,440
Speaker 5: Okay, I'm going to go a little bit off the

1189
00:56:16,520 --> 00:56:18,960
Speaker 5: radar here. One guy that I think has a pretty

1190
00:56:18,960 --> 00:56:23,640
Speaker 5: decent chance of finishing in the top twelve is Cam Akers,

1191
00:56:23,920 --> 00:56:27,680
Speaker 5: And I know that's not anyone who really should be

1192
00:56:27,760 --> 00:56:30,239
Speaker 5: going in the top twelve. I just think he has

1193
00:56:30,280 --> 00:56:33,040
Speaker 5: the chance to finish there, which means he could provide

1194
00:56:33,160 --> 00:56:37,320
Speaker 5: some tremendous value at his average draft position. I'm looking

1195
00:56:37,360 --> 00:56:40,080
Speaker 5: at the Rams offense and I think they're going to

1196
00:56:40,239 --> 00:56:43,480
Speaker 5: be actually a little bit better than they were last year.

1197
00:56:43,680 --> 00:56:45,680
Speaker 5: But even if they do just what they did last year,

1198
00:56:45,719 --> 00:56:48,399
Speaker 5: it's not as if they were bad last year. There's

1199
00:56:48,440 --> 00:56:52,319
Speaker 5: a kind of a difference between having Todd Gurley and

1200
00:56:52,360 --> 00:56:55,440
Speaker 5: having other players. But I mean, they've run the ball

1201
00:56:55,800 --> 00:56:59,000
Speaker 5: pretty consistently when they've been near the goal line. Twenty

1202
00:56:59,120 --> 00:57:01,880
Speaker 5: rushing touchdowns last year, twenty seven the year before that,

1203
00:57:01,880 --> 00:57:06,799
Speaker 5: that's counting the playoffs, but seventeen rushing touchdowns the year

1204
00:57:06,840 --> 00:57:09,879
Speaker 5: before that in seventeen games. Like this is a team

1205
00:57:09,920 --> 00:57:13,959
Speaker 5: that pretty consistently runs near the goal line. And cam

1206
00:57:14,000 --> 00:57:15,839
Speaker 5: Akers I think is going to be the guy who

1207
00:57:15,920 --> 00:57:19,200
Speaker 5: ends up getting a lot of those carries, not just

1208
00:57:19,280 --> 00:57:20,480
Speaker 5: at the goal line, but I think he's going to

1209
00:57:20,560 --> 00:57:23,439
Speaker 5: leave the backfield pretty handily. And I also think he's

1210
00:57:23,520 --> 00:57:27,920
Speaker 5: a better receiver than he probably gets credit for. Tremendous athlete,

1211
00:57:28,000 --> 00:57:32,600
Speaker 5: highly recruited guy entering college. So I'm very we'll say optimistic,

1212
00:57:32,640 --> 00:57:35,440
Speaker 5: I'm optimistic about what he's going to do within that offense.

1213
00:57:35,480 --> 00:57:38,360
Speaker 5: So he shouldn't have been in the outline as someone

1214
00:57:38,400 --> 00:57:40,320
Speaker 5: to talk about in the top twelve, but it really

1215
00:57:40,360 --> 00:57:43,320
Speaker 5: would not be a surprise to me if he's wanted

1216
00:57:43,360 --> 00:57:47,760
Speaker 5: the rookies who actually ends up finishing there. Graham, awesome

1217
00:57:47,920 --> 00:57:50,200
Speaker 5: having you on the show. I want to hear from

1218
00:57:50,200 --> 00:57:53,240
Speaker 5: you about what you guys have going on at Fantasy Points.

1219
00:57:53,720 --> 00:57:55,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, thanks for having me on. Guys. This was a

1220
00:57:55,320 --> 00:57:58,280
Speaker 3: lot of fun chopping up about running backs. Yeah. A

1221
00:57:58,280 --> 00:58:00,720
Speaker 3: lot of fun, cool stuff coming out of Fantasy Points

1222
00:58:00,760 --> 00:58:03,680
Speaker 3: dot Com over the next couple weeks as we lead

1223
00:58:03,720 --> 00:58:06,360
Speaker 3: into this kind of weird season. We're we're all looking

1224
00:58:06,400 --> 00:58:09,040
Speaker 3: forward to and hoping starts. But we've got a bunch

1225
00:58:09,040 --> 00:58:12,040
Speaker 3: of player profiles up right now on pretty much every

1226
00:58:12,040 --> 00:58:17,919
Speaker 3: single fantasy relevant player that you have imaginable. I'm coming

1227
00:58:17,920 --> 00:58:20,800
Speaker 3: out with a pretty cool game script series next week

1228
00:58:21,480 --> 00:58:25,600
Speaker 3: looking into, you know, coaching tendencies, what happens when teams

1229
00:58:25,640 --> 00:58:28,720
Speaker 3: get behind, what happens when teams are ahead on the scoreboard.

1230
00:58:29,440 --> 00:58:31,520
Speaker 3: Definitely look out for that article. I mean, we've got

1231
00:58:32,080 --> 00:58:35,680
Speaker 3: just so much content coming out every day between myself,

1232
00:58:35,680 --> 00:58:39,200
Speaker 3: Scott Barrett, Joe Dolan, Tom Brawley, Greg Cosell has been

1233
00:58:39,200 --> 00:58:42,040
Speaker 3: doing an excellent film series, and our guy Adam Kaplan

1234
00:58:42,720 --> 00:58:45,640
Speaker 3: NFL Insiders writing some some pretty cool insider pieces for

1235
00:58:45,760 --> 00:58:48,919
Speaker 3: us too, So definitely check us out if you haven't already.

1236
00:58:48,880 --> 00:58:51,840
Speaker 5: All right, great stuff everyone. You can follow Graham on

1237
00:58:51,880 --> 00:58:55,240
Speaker 5: Twitter at Graham Barfield. In our next NFL episode, we

1238
00:58:55,240 --> 00:58:58,600
Speaker 5: will break down the fantasy running backs outside the top twelve.

1239
00:58:58,680 --> 00:59:00,959
Speaker 5: Keep an eye out for that. Can follow Sean, Chris

1240
00:59:00,960 --> 00:59:03,880
Speaker 5: and me in the Action Network app at the Underscore

1241
00:59:03,880 --> 00:59:06,440
Speaker 5: odds maker Chris Raybond and Matt f the Orgle and

1242
00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:10,520
Speaker 5: definitely be sure to check out our Fantasy football tool,

1243
00:59:10,560 --> 00:59:14,000
Speaker 5: which is customizable. It has come out within the past week.

1244
00:59:14,040 --> 00:59:16,160
Speaker 5: It has all of our projections in there, which we

1245
00:59:16,640 --> 00:59:20,439
Speaker 5: update very regularly, and so I should say not only

1246
00:59:20,520 --> 00:59:24,280
Speaker 5: is it a good resource for fantasy drafts, but because

1247
00:59:24,280 --> 00:59:26,360
Speaker 5: it has our projections, I think it is also a

1248
00:59:26,400 --> 00:59:30,760
Speaker 5: tremendous resource for doing season long prop bets. Right, please

1249
00:59:30,760 --> 00:59:33,200
Speaker 5: subscribe to and rate and review the show and listen

1250
00:59:33,240 --> 00:59:48,720
Speaker 5: and download on Spotify. See you again next episode.

1251
00:59:53,000 --> 00:59:54,080
Speaker 3: We're finished talking