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Speaker 1: All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros Podcast. It's

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Speaker 1: time to place your bets for the twenty twenty five

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Speaker 1: Preakness Stakes. That's right, we're back betting ponies, this time

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Speaker 1: heading to Baltimore. I'm your host, Seth Wilcock, and we're

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Speaker 1: coming off a fantastic Kentucky Derby where our guest Mike

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Speaker 1: Samach helped some very happy listeners cash in both on

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Speaker 1: the Sovereignty Outright and the legendary Superfecta. So shout to

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Speaker 1: everyone who tailed. Shout to Mike for some really great

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Speaker 1: plays as well. Joining me today is an equally exciting cast,

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Speaker 1: including the host of the Betting Pros Daily Juice podcast,

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Speaker 1: Matt Parral. Matt, great to see you today, man. How

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Speaker 1: are you as we gear up for another leg of

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Speaker 1: the Triple Crown.

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Speaker 2: You know, I'm good.

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Speaker 3: You know, Sovereignty's win over Journalism was pretty exciting. It

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Speaker 3: was kind of predicted right after the race that this,

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Speaker 3: you know, second leg might not get the Triple Crown

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Speaker 3: winner potential. So it's a little bit of a bummer

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Speaker 3: on the Preakness, but it's a good money making opportunity

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Speaker 3: for sure.

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Speaker 2: Good to be here, Thanks for having.

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Speaker 1: Me also joining us as someone else who is correct

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Speaker 1: coming off a really big Kentucky Derby win himself. He

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Speaker 1: shouted it right here on the Bank Pros podcast. It's

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Speaker 1: Luke Minaldo. Luke, how are you doing as we approach

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Speaker 1: yet another exciting weekend of horse racing.

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Speaker 4: I'm doing great myself, a little bummed that there will

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Speaker 4: be no triple Crown winner this year, but other than that,

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Speaker 4: it's always great to.

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Speaker 5: Have the Preakness.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely Before we jump into the program, just wanted to

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Speaker 1: first shout out everyone who's watching and listening. If you're

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Speaker 1: joining us here on the Bank Pros YouTube channel, do

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Speaker 1: us a quick favor, give this favorite a thumbs up

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Speaker 1: if you enjoy this type content. Also subscribe if you're

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Speaker 1: new so you don't miss a thing. And let's go ahead, gentlemen,

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Speaker 1: let's dive in, starting with post predictions and or excuse me,

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Speaker 1: post positions and what they mean.

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Speaker 5: Luke, can you.

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Speaker 1: Please explain a little bit about how certain gates historically

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Speaker 1: help or hurt when it comes to the Preakness versus

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Speaker 1: the Derby, and how it might impact your betting card

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Speaker 1: this weekend?

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Speaker 5: My friend, Well, it's.

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Speaker 4: Not quite as you know. Spread out in terms of

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Speaker 4: the scattered chart, I should say because stead of a

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Speaker 4: twenty horse field, you have less than half. Historically, I

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Speaker 4: guess since nineteen oh nine, the six hole has produced

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Speaker 4: the most winners with seventeen, including last year's when it

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Speaker 4: was seized the gray. But you have a lot of

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Speaker 4: thirteen for goal oriented he's at the one hole. Did

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Speaker 4: you have thirteen at the one hole, fourteen at the

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Speaker 4: four hole? Everything like that? And even since two thousand,

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Speaker 4: six hole has had four winners, but everyone else has

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Speaker 4: had two or three, and at least one until through

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Speaker 4: one through nine since two thousand. So it's just it's

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Speaker 4: anyone's game in.

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Speaker 1: Terms of the gate, Matt, anything in addition to added

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Speaker 1: to that. And with that being said, are there any

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Speaker 1: big name ponies that you're either fading in key slots.

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Speaker 5: Or maybe backing this weekend?

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Speaker 6: No?

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Speaker 2: Not in terms of fading.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think when you look at a horse

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Speaker 3: like Journalism in the way that he performed in the derby,

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Speaker 3: I think obviously he's the odds on favorite for good reason.

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Speaker 3: And so I think when you're talking about horses that

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Speaker 3: have gone, we've seen them run already against many in

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Speaker 3: this field and going into the Preakness now with obviously

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Speaker 3: sovereignty not being there, you have to really like a

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Speaker 3: bigger name horse to come in here and get the win.

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Speaker 3: But the problem is the Derby is so great because

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Speaker 3: of the betting. The depth of the betting pool and

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Speaker 3: the para mutual gives you so many opportunities to make

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Speaker 3: money and really cash a long shot ticket. So if

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Speaker 3: you want the Bombers, the Derby's just the pool of

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Speaker 3: money is so different when it comes to the Preakness,

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Speaker 3: and then it's somewhat. I do tend to bet favorites

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Speaker 3: more and I'm more confident in betting favorites in the Preakness.

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Speaker 2: Because I'm not.

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Speaker 3: One the field's half the size, but two, the prize

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Speaker 3: pool is different, so you aren't looking to come off

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Speaker 3: with that ticket and that super effecta that's going to

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Speaker 3: pay you, you know, twenty thirty forty to one. It's

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Speaker 3: better to come in with a Preakness and take the

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Speaker 3: horse you really think that's going to win and maybe

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Speaker 3: take winners to just place to just take a winner

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Speaker 3: and take the price there because it's probably going to

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Speaker 3: be decent price for you to.

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Speaker 1: Get Luke anything that the post position draw is telling

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Speaker 1: you right now that you're they're staying away from or

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Speaker 1: that you are potentially backing because of that poll.

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Speaker 4: Well, Journalism at the two I don't love, just because

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Speaker 4: that's a hard trip, especially as a deep closer if

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Speaker 4: he gets kind of caught there between the rail and

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Speaker 4: the crowd. Being one in three sixteenth miles, this is

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Speaker 4: the shortest of the Triple Crown race, and that can

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Speaker 4: lead to issues with the deep closers. I think Journalism

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Speaker 4: has there's a lot of trips that can get him

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Speaker 4: a win, but if you want to find the money

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Speaker 4: in this race, it's gonna be with Journalism getting a

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Speaker 4: bad trip on the inside.

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Speaker 1: Okay, before we continue, be sure to download the free

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Speaker 1: course some parlays create custom betting systems to find winning

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Speaker 1: trends and profitable opportunities. Get a free trial of Betting

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Speaker 1: Pros Premium by downloading the app at bettingpros dot com,

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Speaker 5: Now what everyone's been waiting for. Let's go ahead and

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Speaker 5: move into the odds.

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Speaker 1: The favorites as of midweek are Journalism once Again, who

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Speaker 1: after finishing second in the derby, is now going off

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Speaker 1: at eight to five odds, which in American odds or

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Speaker 1: sports betting odds, it's gonna be plus one sixty. The

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Speaker 1: Stables owned and Metallica inspired named Sandman comes in at

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Speaker 1: four to one odds after finishing seventh in the derby.

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Speaker 1: Clever Again is at five to one, and Goal Oriented

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Speaker 1: is also at five to one. Let's start by breaking

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Speaker 1: down overlays and underlays, Matt, in your eyes, do you

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Speaker 1: see any overlays offering values or underlays that you're potentially

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Speaker 1: avoiding this weekend?

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Speaker 2: Not really, I mean not yet.

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Speaker 3: I think I kind of want to get a little

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Speaker 3: bit closer as we're taping here on a Wednesday, I

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Speaker 3: want to get kind of closer.

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Speaker 2: I really want to see the weather.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think that that has such a key

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Speaker 3: component as to come well when it comes to value

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Speaker 3: and looking at the field and looking at the prices.

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Speaker 3: I think in terms of and again we don't know

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Speaker 3: what the weather's going to be like because it's obviously

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Speaker 3: on the East coast and it can change relatively quickly.

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Speaker 3: But if it's gonna be a wet track, if if

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Speaker 3: it's gonna rain, it will change the way I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: bet this whole if it bet this race. So as

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Speaker 3: of right now, there are some forecasts that say we

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Speaker 3: might have some rain in the forecast in Baltimore, and

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Speaker 3: if that happens, that will change. So as of right now, no,

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Speaker 3: but that could change based upon the weather as we

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Speaker 3: get closer to post time.

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Speaker 1: Okay, when it comes to the favorites here, Luke, of

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Speaker 1: course these odds are subject to change weather depending of course,

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Speaker 1: seeing where the money comes in as well. So are

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Speaker 1: any of these favorite favorites betable or potentially ones that

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Speaker 1: you're avoiding here.

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Speaker 4: Luke, I guess journalism for the aforementioned reason of just

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Speaker 4: his post position. Okay, I guess another little thing to

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Speaker 4: put it in is in recent years, in the past

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Speaker 4: about fifteen or sixteen races, there's been five favorites of

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Speaker 4: one like on money online favorites, and six long shots

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Speaker 4: of one. So in recent years you have seen a

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Speaker 4: little more of the long shots come through horses like

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Speaker 4: cloud Computing and sees de Gray even was a mid

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Speaker 4: long shot in that regard, So maybe goal oriented. I

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Speaker 4: think if you want to termament talk in terms of

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Speaker 4: long shots, maybe not in his odds, but just in

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Speaker 4: terms of he's only race two races, he's won both

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Speaker 4: of them. I think he wants the distance and Baffort

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Speaker 4: has got eight of these things, and you don't win

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Speaker 4: it by throwing just any old horse out there. So

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Speaker 4: I think if Baffort thinks he's ready, and honestly, if

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Speaker 4: it speaking to the weather, if it's a wet track,

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Speaker 4: sometimes that inside that rail is the driest and the

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Speaker 4: best route. So if you get goal oriented out in

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Speaker 4: front and he's got the rail, you could see an

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Speaker 4: upset in terms of just his racing history right there,

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Speaker 4: his racing history, not racing history, but his own personal

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Speaker 4: racing history.

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Speaker 5: Then what do you think about that?

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Speaker 1: Matt? Do you have any favorite favorites that you will

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Speaker 1: be laying any coin down or is this just you know,

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Speaker 1: an all out Hey, I'm gonna hold it and wait

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Speaker 1: and see until the weekend.

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Speaker 3: If I was betting today, I would bet Sandman, and

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Speaker 3: I think that that's I would bet Sandman to win,

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Speaker 3: to win it the Orchestral Derby winner. And I look,

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Speaker 3: I'm a little bit of a music nut, so you

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Speaker 3: could say I'm a little bit superstitious on this because

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Speaker 3: I thought the track on the his run of the

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Speaker 3: Derby wasn't all that great. So let's see what happens

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Speaker 3: here in kind of a bounce back spot. I think,

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Speaker 3: as Luke talked about, the rail is somewhat of a

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Speaker 3: questionable spot for journalism. So I may go four to one,

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Speaker 3: five to one on Sandman. On those odds, I think

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Speaker 3: goal goal oriented, six to one, seven to one. Let's

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Speaker 3: see where those prices wind up going. That's not a

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Speaker 3: horrible idea. I mean, if you want long shots and

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Speaker 3: go crazy, hard of honor.

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Speaker 2: Is a horse.

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Speaker 3: Maybe it's it's a you know, a horse that hasn't

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Speaker 3: run here, so maybe a horse that we don't know

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Speaker 3: much about. That kind of comes from the clouds and

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Speaker 3: it comes out if you want that long shot opportunity.

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Speaker 3: But from a favorite perspective right now, I would look

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Speaker 3: at Sandman and say, okay, let's see if you could

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Speaker 3: make up for the derby, because there was so much

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Speaker 3: hype around that.

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Speaker 1: Oh my goodness.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and things and things did not go well at

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Speaker 2: the derby. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: This guy has like I think, probably more Instagram horses

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Speaker 1: or Instagram followers as horse does than betting pros does,

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Speaker 1: which we've got a pretty good following out there on

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Speaker 1: the Insta streets. But yes, Samman, certainly the New York

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Speaker 1: Yankees endorsement that does not hurt that at all, Luke.

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Speaker 1: In addition to the outright market, there are exotics that

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Speaker 1: could be in play here. So whether that's exactas trifectas

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Speaker 1: win play, show bets, are there any things that you're

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Speaker 1: looking at potentially adding to your card in these markets?

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Speaker 4: I don't think there's so much stacked against this course

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Speaker 4: to win. But I like pay Billy, And the biggest

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Speaker 4: thing I like about pay Billy to hit the board

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Speaker 4: is that he's got five wins, and that's There are

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Speaker 4: limited stakes races in below. They're all at Laurel Park,

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Speaker 4: ten minutes from my house, by the way, So he's

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Speaker 4: a local here Kentucky bread. But he's raced his entire

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Speaker 4: career in Delaware and Maryland. But five wins as a

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Speaker 4: three year old is nothing to sneeze at. So he

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Speaker 4: has a chance to hit the board and at twenty

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Speaker 4: to one or whatever he's going to go off at.

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Speaker 4: That could really add value in a horse in a

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Speaker 4: race that is searching for it.

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Speaker 1: Matt, you said that this might be the race that

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Speaker 1: you're just potentially taking outrights. Do you like any exotics

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Speaker 1: off the rip here or is this just another place

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Speaker 1: you're staying away from.

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Speaker 3: I think for me, I tend to look towards the

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Speaker 3: value on race day when it comes to exotics. I

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Speaker 3: break down horses the way I break down fields is

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Speaker 3: I want to see who I think is going to

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Speaker 3: win the race, and then from there I'll kind of

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Speaker 3: play off of it and say, okay, Like I don't

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Speaker 3: normally make this bet, but the bet of the Derby

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Speaker 3: I made. I took the top three odds to go first, second,

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Speaker 3: or third, the top three odds shortest odds to win

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Speaker 3: the race in the Derby, and that was a minus

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Speaker 3: one thirty play. I don't normally make that, but but

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Speaker 3: I felt like the top three horses in the race,

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Speaker 3: it was journalism, it was sovereignty. And I forget the

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Speaker 3: third horse that they gave me as an option to

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Speaker 3: bet it, and I.

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Speaker 2: Lay juice with it.

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Speaker 3: Just because I thought those are the top three horses

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Speaker 3: that were gonna come in and Sovereignty wan so that

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Speaker 3: back cashed. So I don't normally do stuff like that,

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Speaker 3: but I feel like sometimes there can be a separator

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Speaker 3: as we get closer to post time where you start

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Speaker 3: to see the quote unquote sharp money come in, and

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Speaker 3: as that comes in, you're like, Okay, what am I

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Speaker 3: not seeing? Because I bet everything, So like I kind

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Speaker 3: of I'm a master of none when it comes to

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Speaker 3: gambling in.

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Speaker 2: A lot of senses.

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Speaker 3: So like I do look to see where the late

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Speaker 3: money comes in and where the larger wagers come in,

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Speaker 3: because I may go, Okay, I'm gonna bet sand Man

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Speaker 3: to win this thing. But if I'm gonna play in exacta,

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Speaker 3: who's gonna come in second?

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Speaker 2: You know if I'm gonna play.

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Speaker 3: I love the options of horse raising gives you with

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Speaker 3: the boxes and the different levels that different bets you

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Speaker 3: can make for fifty cents and a dollar. So oftentimes

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Speaker 3: I go with somebody who I know who's a good

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Speaker 3: gambler who knows how to bet horses, and I'll tell them, Okay,

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Speaker 3: I like these three horses, how do I do it?

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Speaker 2: And they'll give me the bet to make at the window.

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Speaker 1: Now that's awesome, man. I'm always very pleasantly surprised by

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Speaker 1: the array of a different markets that you're investing in

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Speaker 1: over there on the Daily Juice.

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Speaker 5: Well, what's the weirdest sport You've ever bet on?

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Speaker 3: The weirdest sport I've ever bet on. That's a great

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Speaker 3: question because I grew up in Boston, and betting on

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Speaker 3: NASCAR is always like a foreign conversation. But I I

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Speaker 3: worked in Virginia in Alabama, so I covered Talladega and

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Speaker 3: then I went to Omaha, and I went into Des Moines,

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Speaker 3: and I went to Kansas City. I went to Texas.

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Speaker 3: I'm in the Texas Motor Speedway. I've been to Kansas City.

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Speaker 3: I've been to Iowa Motor Speedway. I've been around the

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Speaker 3: country at different tracks. So I would say, like, the

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Speaker 3: one sport that I've never played myself that I've bet

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Speaker 3: on would be car racing, would be NASCAR.

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Speaker 5: Okay, okay, good on that. Well, if you guys like Nascar.

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Speaker 1: I put out an article on the Betting Pros website

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Speaker 1: Cup Series odds for you. So yeah, definitely one of

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Speaker 1: those niche markets. So for sure, I don't think it's

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Speaker 1: you know, you look at all these stats of different

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Speaker 1: areas that are growing in sports betting, NASCAR is not one,

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Speaker 1: but we're trying to get it there. So we're gonna

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Speaker 1: keep doing the Lord's work over here at Betting Pros.

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Speaker 1: All right, gentlemen, let's go ahead and get into some

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Speaker 1: long shots. Luke, do you have any sleeper picks that

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Speaker 1: you're riding with this weekend.

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna stick with pay Billy. You know, he's a

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Speaker 4: local favorite and it's all it's he won. He got

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Speaker 4: in by winning the Fredriko Tessio Stakes. It's been a

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Speaker 4: long time, if ever they produced a winner. But I

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Speaker 4: just like I said, five wins as a three year old.

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Speaker 4: That's not by nothing, not for nothing. So pay Billy

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Speaker 4: uh if he if he wins, is gonna pay Billy, John, Joey,

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Speaker 4: everybody big time.

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Speaker 1: What do you think, Matt, do you have any long

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Speaker 1: shots that you're potentially looking at? I think you already

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Speaker 1: shouted one out.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Heart of Honor is is kind of what I'm

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Speaker 3: looking at. I like the fourth post position right in

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Speaker 3: the middle of the field coming in. We don't know

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Speaker 3: this horse, I mean bom and really it's making his

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Speaker 3: US debut at the Preakness, So we don't really know

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Speaker 3: a whole lot about how he'll run here in the

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Speaker 3: United States. So I tend to like horses that ab

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Speaker 3: other jockeys haven't seen run and don't know his running style.

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Speaker 2: And if he is going to be a closer, let's

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Speaker 2: see what the pace is here.

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Speaker 3: If it is a muddy track, if it is sloppy

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Speaker 3: and maybe a slower track, you might see somebody come

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Speaker 3: from the clouds like a heart of honor getting a

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Speaker 3: chance at fifteen, you know, sixteen to one, depending on

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Speaker 3: where he closes to come and get a big upset

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Speaker 3: in the Preakness.

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Speaker 1: Okay, all right, well, Luke, I got one more question

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Speaker 1: for you to round it out. And I hope you

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Speaker 1: take this as a compliment, but you look like a

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Speaker 1: degenerate a lot like myself. So I want to ask you,

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Speaker 1: do you have a degenerate ticket for us, a yolo

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Speaker 1: ticket if you would maybe a big payout play something

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Speaker 1: that we're not gonna hold you to, maybe over in

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Speaker 1: that super effective market, that's maybe just worth a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a sprinkle here.

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Speaker 4: Okay, So let's take the situation I talked about earlier.

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Speaker 4: Let's say journalism gets a horrible trip and gets trapped

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Speaker 4: on the inside. Okay, take take his eight to five

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Speaker 4: out of it. Let's do he got heart in any order?

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Speaker 4: Heart of Honor, Pay Billy, River Tims, who he's kind

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Speaker 4: of like Sovereignty, like I talked about the last time

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Speaker 4: we talked, Sovereignty had been around long, like too long

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Speaker 4: to be trending, and people kind of forgot about him. Sorry.

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Speaker 4: River Tams is much the same way. He posted a

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Speaker 4: one sixteen speed rate about buyer speed rating earlier this year,

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Speaker 4: and that's I believe the best, if not one of

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Speaker 4: the best in the field this year. So put him

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Speaker 4: in there, and then you can even add Sandman, and

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Speaker 4: so you can have River Tams and Sandman are kind

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Speaker 4: of the more meat and potatoes part of that the

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Speaker 4: most likely. And then you go ahead and throw Heart

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Speaker 4: of Honor and pay Billy and if that hits, especially

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Speaker 4: if pay Billy or Heart of Honor is a windsor

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Speaker 4: places oh man.

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Speaker 1: Okay, all right, well, Matt Luke, Yeah, can I can

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Speaker 1: I ask Luther a question on that, because I am

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Speaker 1: curus Luke.

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Speaker 2: What's your what's your theory when.

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Speaker 3: It comes to boxes and it comes to playing all

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Speaker 3: and the crazier bets, because my co host on my

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Speaker 3: other show has once put all he picked the winner

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Speaker 3: and then hit the all button and was able to

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Speaker 3: cash and one about nine thousand dollars doing it. Okay,

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Speaker 3: because if you get a dog, you get a crazy

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Speaker 3: from the clouds. And I forget whichever it was was

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Speaker 3: two years ago that won the derby, the long shot

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Speaker 3: horse that won the derby, that escaped in my brain

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Speaker 3: and I apologize, But how do you feel about those

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Speaker 3: types of box and one in those crazier inside school bets.

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Speaker 4: They are danger They're a dangerous game because I got

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Speaker 4: into that for a while, especially during COVID when that

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Speaker 4: was really the only betting thing in town, and I

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Speaker 4: would box. I'd find horses that were like six horse races,

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Speaker 4: so I could like do a ten cent super effective

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Speaker 4: box them all. It's like a thirty six dollars ticket

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Speaker 4: and I hit big on one of them, and it's

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Speaker 4: just it's not a it's not a very good, smart

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00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:06,359
Speaker 4: long term thing, but you can hit big with it.

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Speaker 4: But I do like boxing superfectas because I just I

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Speaker 4: hate that. Oh instead I did dollar twenty instead of

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Speaker 4: doing two forty, and the long shot hit, but I

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Speaker 4: didn't have that, So I like to do all. If

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Speaker 4: I'm doing a super effect, I like to box it

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Speaker 4: and have all. So I'm just rooting for the horse,

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Speaker 4: the four horses to finish, rather than like any particular order.

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Speaker 4: That's my that's where I can go, right.

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Speaker 2: I like that too.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And I think for the average person doesn't bet horses,

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Speaker 3: it's fun not picking the order, just picking the top

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Speaker 3: four horses that come in. And granted that ticket at

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Speaker 3: fifty cents can get expensive, it can be up to

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Speaker 3: fifty sixty bucks on it, but it's worth it if

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Speaker 3: you're gonna bet that race.

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Speaker 2: I think if you do like multiple horses for.

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Speaker 4: Sure, and they have the it's like a quinila, but

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00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:50,639
Speaker 4: it's like an omni box. They have a lot in

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Speaker 4: like other countries international racing where it's like you have

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Speaker 4: you pick two horses and if they finish anywhere in

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Speaker 4: the top three, yeah pays. But it doesn't matter if

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Speaker 4: it's their first, inserted, second and third whatever, and those

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Speaker 4: can be fun. I used to do early mornings South

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Speaker 4: Africa that was really Djen djdays was betting South Africa

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Speaker 4: news racing because it was like, you know, first thing

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Speaker 4: in the morning eight o'clock the racist start. I love

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Speaker 4: it gets me into the day, into.

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Speaker 5: The love it.

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Speaker 1: Love it well, gentlemen, thank you so much for the

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00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:27,160
Speaker 1: analysis this weekend.

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Speaker 5: Good luck to you, Good luck to everyone out there.

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00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:31,920
Speaker 1: In their bets for the Preakness Stakes that is going

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Speaker 1: to do it for us today on the Betting Pros Podcast,

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00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:36,280
Speaker 1: thanks so much for watching. Be sure to give this

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00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:39,240
Speaker 1: fav a thumbs up if you enjoyed it. Also subscribe

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00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:41,119
Speaker 1: if you're new so you don't miss a thing and

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00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:43,240
Speaker 1: don't forget to download the Banking Pros app and sink

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00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:46,160
Speaker 1: your sportsbooks today for Luke min Audo and Matt Praul,

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00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:47,040
Speaker 1: I'm Seth with Wilcock.

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00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:47,879
Speaker 5: Take care of y'all.

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00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:50,480
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast.

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00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,080
Speaker 6: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

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Speaker 6: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

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Speaker 6: our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros