Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here
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Speaker 1: Everything.
Speaker 3: Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday.
Speaker 2: We have a very solemn and a somber show today
Speaker 2: to cover these what's going on in Israel and Palestine, Gaza.
Speaker 3: What do we have today?
Speaker 1: Indeed we do. We're looking to cover this from all
Speaker 1: angles this morning. You know, I really encourage you if
Speaker 1: you can to watch the show or listen to this
Speaker 1: show as a whole. We're going to bring you through
Speaker 1: the very latest as best as we know, of what
Speaker 1: is going on on the ground right now after those
Speaker 1: horrific Hamas attacks on Israeli citizens. We're also going to
Speaker 1: bring you into what led up to this moment, some
Speaker 1: of the history that brought us here, so that everybody
Speaker 1: has a bit of a fuller picture, fuller context and
Speaker 1: we're going to bring in some experts to understand the
Speaker 1: Israeli domestic political situation how that might impact their reaction
Speaker 1: moving forward, and also expert to doctor Parci, who we've
Speaker 1: had on the show many times before, to help understand
Speaker 1: the geopolitics of this situation and what it might mean
Speaker 1: for the broader world, which is very significant.
Speaker 3: As well of course.
Speaker 2: So yeah, as I said, we would really encourage people
Speaker 2: to either listen to this in full. Obviously we put
Speaker 2: it out full to be able to watch for our
Speaker 2: premium subscribers both on Spotify and on YouTube, but you
Speaker 2: can also listen to it for free as a podcast
Speaker 2: as well well. Of course, we'll still post the clips
Speaker 2: in order to keep everybody updated, you know, as soon
Speaker 2: as possible, but if you are able to, I genuinely
Speaker 2: would recommend listening to it in full. We're going to
Speaker 2: start with the very very latest as of this morning,
Speaker 2: around seven thirty Eastern time, just so everybody understands in
Speaker 2: case thing happens after this, what do we have right now?
Speaker 1: That's right, so as of this morning, we have a
Speaker 1: little bit of a glimpse at what the Israeli reaction
Speaker 1: might be as that's starting to take shape, both the
Speaker 1: size scope and shall I say, brutality of it. We
Speaker 1: have a spokesperson from the IDF announcing one hundred thousand
Speaker 1: Israeli troops have been called up.
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen to a little bit of that.
Speaker 5: That's the situation now we have mobilized. We have called
Speaker 5: up approximately one hundred thousand Israeli troops. They are now
Speaker 5: organizing and preparing to launch and attack at Hamas in Gaza,
Speaker 5: and as we speak, we are also striking their military
Speaker 5: targets inside the Gaza Strip and so far we have
Speaker 5: been able to kill more than four hundred terrorists.
Speaker 4: So we know as of this morning.
Speaker 1: Some of the targets that have been hit within Gaza
Speaker 1: include a mosque that was in a densely populated part
Speaker 1: of the Gaza Strip. Of course, Gaza is some of
Speaker 1: the most densely populated places, one of the most densely
Speaker 1: populated places on Earth. There was also a strike of
Speaker 1: a marketplace, a number of apartment buildings and other targets
Speaker 1: have also been leveled.
Speaker 4: Based on what we know this morning.
Speaker 1: In addition put this up on the screen, they have
Speaker 1: announced is Israel's Defence minister announced that Gaza is going
Speaker 1: to be put.
Speaker 4: Under a complete siege.
Speaker 6: Now.
Speaker 1: Gaza has already been under a brutal blockade now for
Speaker 1: sixteen years, which has caused massive problems in terms of
Speaker 1: access to food, water, basic supplies, poverty rate, unemployment rate, etc. This, though,
Speaker 1: goes much further, the Defence Minister saying specifically no electricity,
Speaker 1: no food, no water, and no fuel as Israel begins
Speaker 1: their response to those horrific attacks on Yes.
Speaker 3: That's right, I'll read the full quote here.
Speaker 2: He says a quote that he's got no electricity, no food,
Speaker 2: no fuel quote. We are fighting human animals and we
Speaker 2: will act accordingly. So all of this is almost forty
Speaker 2: eight hours or so in response to the attacks, and
Speaker 2: what we thought we would do is for anybody who
Speaker 2: wants like a fullsome picture of it, is just put
Speaker 2: together some of the most shocking moments. We go ahead
Speaker 2: and start playing them. Everything began to mount over on
Speaker 2: Friday and on Saturday during the holidays actually inside of Israel,
Speaker 2: and what people can see here are thousands of rockets
Speaker 2: that were initially launched from Gaza towards Israel. That was
Speaker 2: kind of the prelude to what Crystal eventually turned into
Speaker 2: one of the most shocking attacks that we have seen
Speaker 2: in modern history. Because of the size and the scope
Speaker 2: of Israel's defense that has justified so much of the
Speaker 2: security state there, Like, for example, those who are watching
Speaker 2: right now, you can see guys literally in the middle
Speaker 2: of the street, tanks and things getting swarmed. And then
Speaker 2: there's also been a lot of attention around the incomplete
Speaker 2: inability for Israel to thwart attacks Crystal air and land
Speaker 2: and sea, with multiple cities that were completely overrun, infiltrated,
Speaker 2: and hundreds and hundreds of civilians who were shock dead
Speaker 2: or in some cases we're also kidnapped.
Speaker 3: We'll bring you the latest on that.
Speaker 2: This is one of the craziest ones to me, Crystal
Speaker 2: is them actually demolishing the barrier, the perimeter wall, which
Speaker 2: was long vaunted as one of the most important things
Speaker 2: in all of Israel, you know, the high tech perimeter
Speaker 2: border wall with all these elect all these sensors here
Speaker 2: we have like burned out cars and other areas from
Speaker 2: the music festival, so so that you know, the moments
Speaker 2: and all this were absolutely shocking and immediately invited some
Speaker 2: Israeli responses.
Speaker 3: People can see on the screen in front yeah, and actually.
Speaker 1: What we're watching right there is the Israel Israel's retaliation
Speaker 1: in Gaza City, leveling that apartment building there. But yeah,
Speaker 1: as you said, Soger, and this was timed to roughly
Speaker 1: correspond with the fifty year anniversary of the Yan Kapor War,
Speaker 1: which was another shocking surprise attack where Israel initially struggled
Speaker 1: to repel a coalition of Arab states. That war looms
Speaker 1: very large in terms of Israeli national consciousness and has
Speaker 1: been used to help justify this build up of the
Speaker 1: mess security state and the surveillance state. And you know,
Speaker 1: part of what was so shocking here is there I
Speaker 1: think had developed a sense of comfort and security and
Speaker 1: in a sense complacency while the Israeli domestic population was
Speaker 1: protesting and fighting over Netnyahuo's you know, attacks on the
Speaker 1: independent judiciary there. So that's part of the backdrop that
Speaker 1: we'll get into as well. The other piece of this attack,
Speaker 1: which did directly target Israeli civilians, was a significant program
Speaker 1: of hostage taking. So we don't know the exact numbers yet,
Speaker 1: Israel doesn't know the exact numbers yet, but you're viewing
Speaker 1: some of the videos of hostages being taken by Hamas militants.
Speaker 1: The latest numbers I saw are somewhere around one hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty known hostages. You can see, you know, women,
Speaker 1: elderly children, all targeted. There are also reports that Americans
Speaker 1: may be among those hostages. We can actually put that
Speaker 1: up on the screen. Still a question still unconfirmed whether
Speaker 1: or not Americans are among the hostages taken here.
Speaker 4: This is a.
Speaker 1: Very emotional issue, not only for Israel obviously also for
Speaker 1: the US, and really complicates what the Israeli response can
Speaker 1: be because if you have potentially hundreds of Israeli hostages
Speaker 1: being held by Hamas in Gaza, makes it much more
Speaker 1: difficult to respond because you have an Israeli domestic population
Speaker 1: which would be very concerned about.
Speaker 4: The well being and safety of these.
Speaker 1: Hostages, understandably, and of course their families are sick with
Speaker 1: worry about what is going to happen to them and
Speaker 1: their fate.
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly right, And we have an exact we don't
Speaker 2: have an exact figure here on the death toll so far,
Speaker 2: but it's already horrific in terms of the human costs.
Speaker 3: So let's put this up there on the screen.
Speaker 2: These were updated as of this morning, we know about
Speaker 2: seven hundred Israelis have been killed, that is, including civilian
Speaker 2: and IDF members, twenty three hundred have been injured. On
Speaker 2: the Gaza side, we have four hundred and ninety three
Speaker 2: killed so far, two thy seven hundred and fifty one
Speaker 2: who have been injured. We don't have a breakdown within
Speaker 2: either of those figures of both IDF and civilian, and
Speaker 2: same thing on Hamas militant or whatever, HAMAS member and
Speaker 2: actual citizens of Gaza. But I think that what really
Speaker 2: we can try and underscore is the shocking nature of
Speaker 2: the attack, because, as you said, the modern foundation of
Speaker 2: the Israeli state is that we will keep these safe.
Speaker 2: This is already the single largest loss of life in
Speaker 2: a single day in Israeli history. So this will loom
Speaker 2: large now for a long time, but well will probably
Speaker 2: loom even larger then. Not only just the horrific figures,
Speaker 2: was the ability to have an incursion directly into major
Speaker 2: Israeli cities. We have a map that we can go
Speaker 2: and put there up on the screen just so people
Speaker 2: can get a little bit of an idea. I mean,
Speaker 2: the perimeter around Gaza was effectively useless. Here you can
Speaker 2: see how Hamas was a to go into multiple major
Speaker 2: populated areas all in southern Israel that all surround the
Speaker 2: Gaza Strip, and not just ones directly across the perimeter,
Speaker 2: but also I mean, you know, several miles into Israeli
Speaker 2: territory and they were able to terrorize, to shoot, to
Speaker 2: kidnap many people who were inside of that.
Speaker 3: They also their rocket ability.
Speaker 2: Is one which has been posing some major tests for
Speaker 2: the Iron Dome. If we want to go and put
Speaker 2: the next one that is up there, you can see
Speaker 2: that rockets were launched from Gaza all the way up
Speaker 2: to Tel Aviv to the capital. One of the videos
Speaker 2: that we showed was Ben Gurion National International Airport, which
Speaker 2: is major airport inside of Israel, which had to shut
Speaker 2: down and passengers actually were on the tarmac rocket strikes
Speaker 2: all the way up and down the capital. Major cities
Speaker 2: like Ashtad we also had. We also had attacks like
Speaker 2: towards Jerusalem where Iron Dome was activated. So thousands and
Speaker 2: thousands of rockets that had been launched there. There's another
Speaker 2: map that we can show up there. This is from
Speaker 2: the retaliation so far by Israel, majorly in Gaza City.
Speaker 2: As Crystal said, though it is difficult, I think for
Speaker 2: people who are not familiar with this to understand Gaza's
Speaker 2: dense population. Gaza is the third most densely populated place
Speaker 2: on Earth. There are two point two million people who
Speaker 2: live in this tiny strip and honestly, if you haven't
Speaker 2: seen it with your own eyes, it is shocking.
Speaker 3: And I never got to go inside Gaza.
Speaker 2: I can only see like quote unquote into Gaza, but
Speaker 2: I mean, this is like Tokyo level of population density,
Speaker 2: which is it comes through a bit in the videos
Speaker 2: and all of that, but that's why you know, every
Speaker 2: basically anytime ammunition strikes within there, there's just going to
Speaker 2: be like one hundred civilians everywhere, which Hamasius is to
Speaker 2: its effect, and also of course you know is going
Speaker 2: to invite criticism on the Israeli response.
Speaker 3: It's just it's a nightmare situation.
Speaker 1: Well, when you put I mean again this Gaza's been
Speaker 1: under stage for sixteen years and it has completely emiserated
Speaker 1: the popular. Their unemployment rate is fifty percent. They used
Speaker 1: to have a vibrant manufacturing sector, including textiles, that has
Speaker 1: completely fallen apart. Even their ability to fish has been
Speaker 1: significantly curtailed because there's also a naval blockade. Egypt, by
Speaker 1: the way, shares a border with Gaza. They also participate
Speaker 1: in this blockade. Their living conditions have continued to deteriorate.
Speaker 1: There's massive issues in terms of their infrastructure, their ability
Speaker 1: to have clean water. They have one power plant within
Speaker 1: the territory of Gaza that's able to provide a few
Speaker 1: hours of electricity a day. So when Israel is cutting
Speaker 1: off now going even further than their typical blockade, cutting off.
Speaker 4: Electricity, water, food, fuel.
Speaker 1: I mean, you can't describe this as anything other than
Speaker 1: a complete siege and also collective punishment. So that is
Speaker 1: the state of affairs as far as we know in
Speaker 1: terms of the Israeli response. You know, there's also a
Speaker 1: lot of questions. We're going to get into this with
Speaker 1: doctor Parsi about whether Iran was involved. There's some reporting
Speaker 1: suggesting that they were. Hamasa's actually saying they were a fall.
Speaker 3: You went on the record, They're like, yeah, the Iranians
Speaker 3: helped us.
Speaker 4: Iran is saying no, we didn't.
Speaker 1: Interestingly, the US intelligence community is saying they don't have
Speaker 1: any evidence that Iran was involved. But as we think
Speaker 1: of the broader geopolitical implications here. Obviously, Iran and Israel
Speaker 1: no great friends. Israel long been very hawkish towards Iran,
Speaker 1: and you already have voices here in the US on
Speaker 1: both the Democratic and the Republican side, effectively calling for
Speaker 1: war with Iran if these reports are true that they
Speaker 1: were involved in helping to plan this. But you know, Soccer,
Speaker 1: you mentioned this, and I don't think that it can
Speaker 1: possibly be overstated the failure on all levels here in
Speaker 1: terms of anticipating what was a very sophisticated attack, which
Speaker 1: for sure took months, if not years to plan.
Speaker 3: Yeah, multi year, I think.
Speaker 1: So, no intelligence indicating the size and scope of this attack.
Speaker 1: In fact, all of the commentary from both US and
Speaker 1: Israeli officials recently was we don't think that Hamas wants
Speaker 1: a full scale war. They were sort of floating these
Speaker 1: additional will give you some additional worker permits so that
Speaker 1: more of your citizens can come over and work in Israel.
Speaker 1: I mean, their movement is so confined that even just
Speaker 1: to get a pass to work in Israel is you know,
Speaker 1: a herculean task, let alone to seek medical care, let
Speaker 1: alone to travel anywhere, including the West Bank. So there
Speaker 1: was a sense of real complacency, and you had all
Speaker 1: of this deal making going on with the Abraham Accords
Speaker 1: under Trump and with this new attempt to normalize relations
Speaker 1: between Saudi Arabia and Israel that were going on. That's
Speaker 1: another key piece of this, because you know, the Palestinians
Speaker 1: were not happy with this direction and all of that
Speaker 1: deal making, which imagine this quote unquote New Middle East
Speaker 1: just sort of ignored the fact that you continue to
Speaker 1: have this brutal apartheid situation. Citizens under occupation in Gaza
Speaker 1: two million under these brutal blockade conditions. They just wanted
Speaker 1: to sort of pretend that didn't exist and invisibilize it,
Speaker 1: and that is no longer going.
Speaker 3: To be possible. It's completely impossible.
Speaker 2: The living symbol of this is going to be this
Speaker 2: music festival where you can see here people were having
Speaker 2: a good time, but then in the background you can
Speaker 2: see little clouds of either missiles smoke, and you know
Speaker 2: there were also paragliders that were eventually came in. And
Speaker 2: then this was completely invaded by these Hamas militants who
Speaker 2: ended up kidnapping, raping, and killing many of the actual attendants,
Speaker 2: and you could see them absolutely just fleeing for their lives.
Speaker 2: It was just broken yesterday that two hundred and thirty
Speaker 2: six bodies were actually found in a collective pile all together.
Speaker 2: So this gives you reminiscent of the Paris attack at
Speaker 2: the Bataklan by Isis. So you know, that is going
Speaker 2: to be the most one of the most searing elements,
Speaker 2: and it really just represents the absolute failure on the
Speaker 2: part of the Israeli state. And we're going to get
Speaker 2: into a lot of that later with ken Roth and
Speaker 2: with others. But the social contract within Israel was always
Speaker 2: like okay, you know, if you haven't been there before,
Speaker 2: don't even go into a mall without being wanted, you know,
Speaker 2: for a suicide vest Like every single part the security
Speaker 2: is in it is unlike anything I have ever experienced
Speaker 2: anywhere on the globe.
Speaker 3: And the justification is we're going to keep you safe.
Speaker 2: They're like, yeah, you know why we do that because
Speaker 2: we haven't had a terrorist attack or a suicide bombing
Speaker 2: or whatever in ten years. That is over now, and
Speaker 2: that when you have that social fabric break. I mean,
Speaker 2: this is a country with mandatory military service. People there
Speaker 2: are very civically engaged, so there I think is going
Speaker 2: to be a massive political backlash, which we're going to
Speaker 2: talk about with Ken rob as to how the hell
Speaker 2: something like this could happen. But an intelligence failure on
Speaker 2: every single level, you know, from the US, from Israel,
Speaker 2: even on Iran, you know, even if they were you know,
Speaker 2: involved or not.
Speaker 3: We're going to talk about that with doctor Parsi.
Speaker 2: But you know, allegedly we spend all this money, you know,
Speaker 2: spying on all these people. And Edward Snowden made a
Speaker 2: great point Nets and Yahoo in the Israeli government have
Speaker 2: pioneered the most invasive spyware like known to man. And
Speaker 2: where what happened? You know, it's like this is being
Speaker 2: planned basically right across your border, right one hundred feet
Speaker 2: from your own country in what you allegedly have all
Speaker 2: these you know, spies, and they love to brag over
Speaker 2: there about their infiltration of Hezbollah and of Hamas, and
Speaker 2: it's like, well, what the hell happened? Guys like you
Speaker 2: didn't get a single and we know from the response
Speaker 2: you didn't have an indication because if you would, there
Speaker 2: would have been a ten x level of the amount
Speaker 2: of defense that happened in the initial days.
Speaker 1: That music festival that turned into absolute horror and carnage
Speaker 1: was meant to impart celebrate quote unquote infinite freedom three
Speaker 1: miles from the Gaza border fence. And I think it
Speaker 1: really does show you that, you know, for a long
Speaker 1: for a while, there was this sense of like, well,
Speaker 1: this is going on over here, but we're basically just
Speaker 1: going to ignore it and pretend that it doesn't exist.
Speaker 1: And you can point to a lot of immediate term
Speaker 1: factors with the net Nyahuu government specifically, which is the
Speaker 1: most extreme government Israel has ever had, which includes some
Speaker 1: figures in it who have expressed outright genocidal intent towards Palestinians,
Speaker 1: like no two ways about it, and they were very
Speaker 1: wrapped up in this push. Nyahoo's got to get out
Speaker 1: of his corruption charges, so he's pushing this attack on
Speaker 1: the independent judiciary. There was a huge nationwide protest over that,
Speaker 1: and at the same time, part of why and this
Speaker 1: has now been fully reported out, part of why there
Speaker 1: was so little troop presence in this area where you
Speaker 1: can see things like Hamas just bulldozing. There's you know,
Speaker 1: special high tech border wall with no problem, is because
Speaker 1: those troops had been reassigned to the West Bank effectively
Speaker 1: to protect these extremist Jewish settlers in that region. And
Speaker 1: so while people were being you know, civilians being murdered
Speaker 1: and slaughtered and taken hostage, et cetera, they were on
Speaker 1: their own because of the way that troops had been
Speaker 1: redeployed because of nat nyahuo extreme coalition effectively. So you
Speaker 1: can point to these very specific domestic factors, which is
Speaker 1: something else we want to talk to ken Roth about.
Speaker 1: But you also just have to say, listen, you can
Speaker 1: have the biggest army, you can have the most invasive
Speaker 1: security state, you can have your good buddies the US
Speaker 1: and you billions of dollars every year. You can have
Speaker 1: all of that. When you're trying to keep two million
Speaker 1: people locked in a cage effectively in an open air
Speaker 1: prison indefinitely, you're never going to have real security. And so,
Speaker 1: you know, I grieve for the families who have lost
Speaker 1: loved ones out of a failure of their government, a
Speaker 1: failure of our government, and you know, an intentional blindness
Speaker 1: from the politicians to just pretend like this issue no
Speaker 1: longer exist and to completely invisibilize, yeah, Hammas are terrorists,
Speaker 1: like there's no, there is no excuse for this kind
Speaker 1: of carnage on civilians. But you never see this level
Speaker 1: of concern for the palestinianszens who are seeing their dreams
Speaker 1: and their hopes and their aspirations c quashed every day
Speaker 1: and who are routinely killed, and you don't see the
Speaker 1: same level of concern. I mean, that is my whole
Speaker 1: stance in all of this is I just want to
Speaker 1: see Israeli lives and Palestinian lives be treated with equal
Speaker 1: care and concern. So you know, to me, that's sort
Speaker 1: of like the bottom line picture here. But there's a
Speaker 1: lot that involves the US as well. As I said,
Speaker 1: out of the casualties, out of the deaths that occurred
Speaker 1: on the Israeli side, some of those we now know
Speaker 1: were Americans. And there's also a high probability I think
Speaker 1: you could say at this point that there are some
Speaker 1: American citizens who have also been taken hostage. Secretary of
Speaker 1: State Tony Blinken spoke about this on the Sunday Shows.
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen to what he had to say.
Speaker 7: Several Americans maybe among the dead. We are very actively
Speaker 7: working to verify those reports. Similarly, we've seen reports about
Speaker 7: hostages and there again very actively trying to verify them
Speaker 7: and nail that down.
Speaker 8: Meaning that there could be some US citizens who have
Speaker 8: been taken hostage as well.
Speaker 3: Mister Secretary.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so we got the report this morning, Crystal, of
Speaker 2: the official count is that least nine Americans were killed
Speaker 2: in Israel. Unfortunately, as you said, it's very likely that
Speaker 2: figure could go higher, and it's very likely there are
Speaker 2: also probably some citizens there. If anybody's ever been to Israel,
Speaker 2: there are Americans all over the place.
Speaker 3: There's a lot of people. You also have dual citizenship.
Speaker 2: So it is not well outside the realm of possibility
Speaker 2: to see anything like this and the US response now
Speaker 2: so far, at least from what we can tell, Can
Speaker 2: we please put a ten up on the screen. In
Speaker 2: terms of the United States military, this is pretty significant.
Speaker 2: The US aircraft aircraft carrier, the US Gerald R Ford,
Speaker 2: as well as all the other ships in the carrier
Speaker 2: Strike Group twelve, which include multiple cruisers, destroyers and others,
Speaker 2: are now showing and heading towards the Eastern Mediterranean quote
Speaker 2: in a show of support for Israel and to assist
Speaker 2: with the possible evacuation of US citizens should the needs
Speaker 2: of the country arises, multiple other governments also mobilizing military
Speaker 2: resources towards the area in case they need to evacuate
Speaker 2: their citizens. Poland, I believe, Romania, other places where large
Speaker 2: they have a large dual citizen or population that lives there.
Speaker 3: On top of that crystal.
Speaker 2: In terms of the weapons requests, we haven't gotten specifics
Speaker 2: yet from Tel Aviv, but Washington has already begun discussions
Speaker 2: around shipping multiple more munitions to Israel, either restocking iron
Speaker 2: dome ammunition. I expect a big interesting discussion to probably occur.
Speaker 2: We had a massive stockpile of AMMO actually in Israel,
Speaker 2: which was meant to either be released to the Israelis
Speaker 2: should the conflict arise, or should us need access to
Speaker 2: that AMMO which is forward deployed in the Middle East. Well,
Speaker 2: we drew down a huge chunk of that and sent
Speaker 2: it to Ukraine. And I got to say this on
Speaker 2: the Israeli side, you know, I hate to inject the
Speaker 2: Ukraine situation into this, but since we're now at least
Speaker 2: talking about response and all, this, one of the reasons
Speaker 2: that Israel refused to ship a lot of munitions in
Speaker 2: arms to Ukraine is they were like, well, we might
Speaker 2: need it to defend ourselves. I think that they're probably
Speaker 2: very vindicated and validated in that decision, and it just
Speaker 2: goes to show you, in terms of trying to prioritize
Speaker 2: your own defense, you never know whenever you're going to
Speaker 2: have to try and have access to those. So just
Speaker 2: a little bit of an underscore for that. But that's
Speaker 2: the major In terms of the US response so far,
Speaker 2: that's basically been it.
Speaker 3: Lots of calls from the U S Secretary of State.
Speaker 2: He's had a call with Turkey, he had a call
Speaker 2: with I believe with some of the other the Egyptians.
Speaker 2: Obviously two calls now so far between President Biden and
Speaker 2: Prime Minister Netanyahu. But on the diplomatic side, it seems
Speaker 2: to be everybody's just sitting back and waiting to see
Speaker 2: what the hell happens, especially with Gaza and with the
Speaker 2: hostage situation. So as of right now, there's been no
Speaker 2: yet invasion of Gaza. Round invasion is what I'm talking about.
Speaker 2: There's been no US troops or any of that been
Speaker 2: mobilized or sent as that we know. The only military
Speaker 2: response on our so far is a symbolic show of
Speaker 2: force to the Eastern med with the carrier Strike Group twelve.
Speaker 1: But you have US politicians who are calling for much
Speaker 1: much more. Let's go ahead and put a nine up
Speaker 1: on the screen. This is this dude, Dean Phillips, who
Speaker 1: we talked about before. He's quote unquote moderate like problem solver,
Speaker 1: caucus type Democrat who he's the one you may recall
Speaker 1: who has been saying Joe Biden should receive a primary challenge.
Speaker 1: He's floated, maybe he'll do it. So that's the student.
Speaker 1: I think he had to give up, like his committee
Speaker 1: assignments or something. He had some punishment, Oh, out of
Speaker 1: democratic leadership because daring to challenge your life. But now
Speaker 1: here he is calling for war with Iran. He says,
Speaker 1: in response to a Wall Street Journal report that Iron
Speaker 1: helped to plot the attack on Israel over several weeks,
Speaker 1: which is what Hamas is saying. Iron is denying, and
Speaker 1: actually US intelligence, as I mentioned before, says they have
Speaker 1: no evidence thus far, so we'll wait to see how
Speaker 1: all that shakes out. He says, If this reporting that
Speaker 1: Iran helped plan, support, and initiate the attack on Israel
Speaker 1: is confirmed, principled nations of the world must unite and
Speaker 1: neutralize the most repugnant, repressive, destabilizing regime in the world.
Speaker 1: Evil cannot be appeased any longer. So it sounds very
Speaker 1: much like he's calling for a war with Iran right now.
Speaker 1: Senator Lindsay Graham will surprise no one who knows his
Speaker 1: history of wanting a war with Iran for quite some
Speaker 1: time now also jumping on that train and pushing in
Speaker 1: that direction.
Speaker 4: Beating the war drums.
Speaker 1: There is going to be a lot of pressure coming
Speaker 1: from both parties in that direction, and we'll wait and
Speaker 1: see what Israel's response is, which we really are only
Speaker 1: now just getting the contours of Sager talk a little
Speaker 1: bit about what we were discussing earlier, how one of
Speaker 1: the great Israeli fears and part of what has led
Speaker 1: to them not going forward with a ground invasion of
Speaker 1: Gaza yet is because they're concerned about the possibility.
Speaker 4: Of a war on two front.
Speaker 3: Yes, that's right.
Speaker 2: So the two front war is probably the single biggest
Speaker 2: nightmare for Israeli war planners and for what a broader.
Speaker 3: Major escalation would look like.
Speaker 2: So we already know right now there have been some
Speaker 2: rockets that were fired by Hesbola from Lebanon into Israel
Speaker 2: after the Hamas attack that happened on Israel, so that
Speaker 2: immediately ignited fears of well, if we invade Gaza, we
Speaker 2: could then see another front open on our border with Lebanon.
Speaker 2: They have fought wars with both at the same time.
Speaker 2: They have fought wars with both, but the idea of
Speaker 2: having to fight a full scale invasion at the same
Speaker 2: time is the absolute nightmare because that would obviously would
Speaker 2: divide the number of reservists. It would also deplete the
Speaker 2: iron doome weapons, stock man munitions, and then in general
Speaker 2: in terms of civilians getting crought in the crossfire. We
Speaker 2: have seen nightmares now in Israel, in Lebanon in the past,
Speaker 2: and in Gaza, so it would could embroil Lebanon. Hesbola,
Speaker 2: of course, has got deep allies with the Iranian government.
Speaker 2: I haven't even mentioned Syria, which also has a significant
Speaker 2: Hezbola situation. Who the hell knows whatever territory you know
Speaker 2: is there on the ground with the Golan Heights, so
Speaker 2: they could even have in some cases two fronts, but
Speaker 2: with multiple other tertiary ones that could open up against them.
Speaker 2: It would also open the question of Saudi Arabian involvement.
Speaker 2: Amarati Katari, who all maintain relations with the Hamas government
Speaker 2: but also have been previously trying to go with Israel.
Speaker 2: Part of the analysis I saw actually for more hawkish people.
Speaker 2: As a guy Seth Frantzman, I've followed him for a
Speaker 2: long time. He used to work over at the Jerusalem
Speaker 2: Post and others. He made a very interesting comment that
Speaker 2: other prime ministers would have invaded Gaza. Now at this
Speaker 2: point they actually believe that Netanyahu is being much more
Speaker 2: cautious and has displayed some of this in the past.
Speaker 2: It doesn't drive with his rhetoric, I know, but I'm
Speaker 2: talking about at critical junctures in Israeli history. There was
Speaker 2: one scenario several years ago where Natanya who traded like
Speaker 2: a thousand Hammas prisoners in exchange for a single Israeli
Speaker 2: soldier who was taken captive, which is what reminded me
Speaker 2: of this hostage situation.
Speaker 3: There was a significant domestic.
Speaker 2: Support for that decision because they're like, we're sick of
Speaker 2: the death, we're sick of the carnage. We just want
Speaker 2: to live in some sort of peace. Now, that was
Speaker 2: a long time ago, but Netaniahuo was the Prime Minister
Speaker 2: who is responsible for that decision. In terms of what
Speaker 2: we have right now now the siege, you know, escalating
Speaker 2: it to not providing electricity, food and water, that's certainly something,
Speaker 2: but that's not a full scale ground invasion of Gaza, right,
Speaker 2: That would lead to hundreds of deaths absolutely on both
Speaker 2: if not thousands, on both sides of the conflict. That
Speaker 2: has not happened, possibly because of the hostage situation, but
Speaker 2: also troop movements inside of Israel indicate they are sending
Speaker 2: almost as much armor to the Lebanese border as they
Speaker 2: are towards Gaza. And so the idea of the two
Speaker 2: front escalation or any of that happening, well, the only
Speaker 2: benefit I think for the entire situation is it could
Speaker 2: give some sort of diplomacy a chance, because Israel so
Speaker 2: desperately wants to avoid that to have to fight that
Speaker 2: two front war, which I think I don't think there's
Speaker 2: any question that it would spiral into something. I'm not
Speaker 2: going to say it would draw us, you know fully
Speaker 2: into World War three, but yeah, already we've got calls
Speaker 2: to go to.
Speaker 3: War with the run.
Speaker 2: We have a two front war open up between Israel
Speaker 2: and Hezbolah and full scale bombings and all that going
Speaker 2: on with Lebanon. And you know, Hezbolah is not Hamas.
Speaker 2: They have far more advanced missile and rocket technology which
Speaker 2: the Iranians have provided them. They could inflict a hell
Speaker 2: of a lot more damage onto Israel than Hamas has
Speaker 2: ever done. And so that is the other reason why
Speaker 2: they have such a nightmare scenario really on their hands. Again,
Speaker 2: we don't know what is going to happen. This is
Speaker 2: the situation right now is still very precarious. But as
Speaker 2: long as there's no ground invasion of Gaza, the idea
Speaker 2: of a two front war opening up, you know, remains
Speaker 2: at least remains lower.
Speaker 3: We also could see it's possible.
Speaker 2: I would it wouldn't be crazy, I think, for Israel
Speaker 2: to try and begin talks with Hezbolah or some sort
Speaker 2: of back channel with Iran or with any other places
Speaker 2: that have relations with them, where they might try and
Speaker 2: broke or some agreement about, hey, we won't do anything
Speaker 2: here as long as we're doing everything here. But obviously
Speaker 2: they would have to pay a price in terms of that,
Speaker 2: and I don't know what any of that.
Speaker 6: Would look like.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Egypt is really trying to reassert their sort of
Speaker 1: traditional role as diplomatic go betweens between the Palestinians and
Speaker 1: Hamas in particular and Israel as other groups. Through the
Speaker 1: Abraham Accord and through you know, what the Biden administration
Speaker 1: is doing as well, like the UAE have gained more
Speaker 1: prominence in terms of diplomatic ties with Israel. So there's
Speaker 1: just a lot of unanswered questions this morning. I also
Speaker 1: want to say, with regard to the videos that we're playing,
Speaker 1: just as a heads up, we're doing the best we
Speaker 1: can to vet these videos, and actually we're leaning more
Speaker 1: on quote unquote traditional news sources than perhaps we would
Speaker 1: because there have been so many fake, wrong, inaccurate old
Speaker 1: videos information that's floating around. So, like I said, we're
Speaker 1: doing the best we can to sort through what is
Speaker 1: happening right now and bring you some visual elements so
Speaker 1: you can get a sense of what is happening on
Speaker 1: the ground. But I just want to throw in there
Speaker 1: that note of caution because it's very difficult, especially now,
Speaker 1: to sort through what is what is fact and fiction,
Speaker 1: What is a real new video of something that happened
Speaker 1: on the ground, what is old. I even saw videos
Speaker 1: that were passing around that we're from video games. I know,
Speaker 1: so you know, it's difficult to parse through all of this.
Speaker 1: I just want to put that out there. And also,
Speaker 1: obviously it's difficult to watch all of this unfold, both
Speaker 1: on the Israeli side and now with the retaliations, the
Speaker 1: brutal retaliations on Gaza.
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's move on history.
Speaker 2: I thought it would be useful because I feel like
Speaker 2: every time these breakout, we appear to try and talk
Speaker 2: about it in a vacuum, and you reference some of that.
Speaker 2: But the truth is, even in the forty something minutes
Speaker 2: that we've already been speaking, we've only covered what do
Speaker 2: you think, maybe fifteen years of history. So I was thinking, yeah,
Speaker 2: we look and we're going to be.
Speaker 3: Talking here about Gaza.
Speaker 2: We are not going back all the way to the
Speaker 2: Balfour Declaration and all of that, because otherwise we'd be
Speaker 2: here for several hours. But I thought it would be
Speaker 2: at least semi useful to give people a primer on Gaza,
Speaker 2: what exactly it is, or the development and at least
Speaker 2: its history in regards to the modern news state, and
Speaker 2: then very very high level I'm sure that some of
Speaker 2: this will be not characterized to the liking of scholars
Speaker 2: and all those other people out there, So please forgive me.
Speaker 2: I genuinely am doing my best. Let's put this up
Speaker 2: there on the screen. This is the map from nineteen
Speaker 2: forty nine, after the Arab Israeli War, after the establishment
Speaker 2: of the State of Israel by the United Nations and
Speaker 2: after the British mandate was terminated. Well you can see
Speaker 2: are the nineteen forty nine armistice lines. Gaza was under
Speaker 2: Egyptian occupation after the Arab Israeli War. Critically, it remained
Speaker 2: under Egyptian occupation and Egyptian administration along with some United
Speaker 2: Nations councils and other things, effectively until the nineteen sixty
Speaker 2: seven war. Let's go ahead and put that up there
Speaker 2: please on the screen. This is very critical. After the
Speaker 2: nineteen sixty seven war, what otherwise is known as the
Speaker 2: Sixth Day War, you could see that the Gaza strip
Speaker 2: was taken and occupied by Israel, as well as the
Speaker 2: West Bank, the gol On Heights and the Sinai Peninsula. Eventually,
Speaker 2: after a series of international agreements, what has happened is
Speaker 2: a Gaza fell under a quasi Palestinian authority. Type government,
Speaker 2: but multiple different international engagements that happened as to how
Speaker 2: the place would be administered. It eventually led to withdrawal
Speaker 2: from the Sinai Peninsula in exchange for peacekeeping. The West
Speaker 2: Bank and Gaza then had the establishment of the Palestinian Authority,
Speaker 2: and then much of the sixties, all the way up
Speaker 2: until the two thousands, that's where we saw things kind
Speaker 2: of settle.
Speaker 3: Then.
Speaker 2: This also included though, by the way, Israeli settlers and
Speaker 2: people who lived inside of Gaza. After the Oslo Accords
Speaker 2: that were signed in Oslo broker by President Bill Clinton
Speaker 2: and the international community, they eventually agreed to quote unquote
Speaker 2: Israeli disengagement from the Gaza Strip, which meant Israel would
Speaker 2: no longer occupy the territory, they would no longer have presence,
Speaker 2: they would no longer have citizens that lived inside of Gaza.
Speaker 2: Two thousand and five is when this policy was officially implemented.
Speaker 2: They were forcibly removed many Israeli citizens from Gaza, and
Speaker 2: the idea was, okay, now Gaza and the West Bank,
Speaker 2: you guys hold elections, you guys administer under the Palestinian Authority.
Speaker 2: What happened then is this let's put this up there
Speaker 2: on the screen. Hamas ended up winning the Gaza Strip
Speaker 2: council vote seven out of the ten councils in the
Speaker 2: Gaza Strip and crushed the FATA party of Mahmoudabas. And
Speaker 2: this party was a guess seen by the West, by
Speaker 2: Israel and others, as more moderate and not more willing
Speaker 2: to embrace terrorism and violence, whereas Hamas, not only being
Speaker 2: an Islamist party, has written in his constitution calling for
Speaker 2: the death of the State of Israel.
Speaker 1: Let me back, go ahead, and let me just interject
Speaker 1: two things there. Number one, because I think in an
Speaker 1: American context it will help to recall that moment in
Speaker 1: America and history.
Speaker 4: Have got George W.
Speaker 1: Bush and this idea of democracy in the Middle East,
Speaker 1: and we're going to, you know, rebuild these nations in
Speaker 1: our image, et cetera, et cetera, rock war, all of that.
Speaker 1: And so the idea here from the Bush administration was, oh.
Speaker 2: Well, we'll have for it because we're also doing Iraqi
Speaker 2: elections at this time, which comes at the Bush second inaugural,
Speaker 2: which was all about democracy promotion.
Speaker 1: And so in any case, they get a result that
Speaker 1: they do not like, yes, and being the US can't
Speaker 1: accept that there's a result that they do not like,
Speaker 1: so they actually got involved in meddling and trying to
Speaker 1: back up Fatah after Hamas had won the election, And
Speaker 1: a lot of people argue that are you know, intelligence
Speaker 1: agencies getting involved in that intra Palestinian conflict and effectively
Speaker 1: civil war really is what kind of led to Hamas
Speaker 1: taking over Gaza. And I also would be remiss if
Speaker 1: I didn't mention, in the spirit of blowback here that
Speaker 1: Hamas was actually encouraged and hoarded and funded by Israel
Speaker 1: in the beginning as an attempt to be a bulwark
Speaker 1: against the PLO, who they didn't like, and they were
Speaker 1: sort of more like traditional like leftists, freedom filing, that's
Speaker 1: how they styled themselves. There were she's there as well, yeah,
Speaker 1: and corruption, et cetera. But they had bolstered Hamas as
Speaker 1: an attempted bulwark against PLO. And then Hamas gets traction
Speaker 1: in part because of the aid they're able to provide
Speaker 1: in schools and healthcare, et cetera. And this very extreme
Speaker 1: you know ideology and openly terroristic ideology. So they gain
Speaker 1: a lot of support and they end up taking over Gaza.
Speaker 1: In part because of the actions of both Israel and the.
Speaker 3: United States, and that's where everything collapsed.
Speaker 2: So after the Bush administration refused to recognize Hamas and
Speaker 2: then they've effectively disengaged, we saw a split between Gaza
Speaker 2: and the West Bank where they have different administrations, and
Speaker 2: that's when the Israeli blockade really began.
Speaker 3: So let's go and put this graphic up on the screen.
Speaker 2: This is made by Al Jazeero, so it is biased
Speaker 2: towards them, just giving people's up and what they say.
Speaker 2: And point is that there have been four before this
Speaker 2: point major conflicts. I guess you could say two thousand
Speaker 2: and eight to two thousand and nine there was a
Speaker 2: twenty three day war with Hamas eventually ended in kind
Speaker 2: of a ceasefire. Twenty twelve, there was eight days. Twenty
Speaker 2: fourteen was probably the most significant one before what's happening
Speaker 2: right now, a fifty day long war. Again, all of
Speaker 2: it focused on either violations of ceasefire in some cases
Speaker 2: on the Israeli side and some cases with the Hamas side,
Speaker 2: lots of rockets that were being fired, and eventually again
Speaker 2: ended in a ceasefire and a tentative stalemate. But I
Speaker 2: think that the most important thing for people to understand,
Speaker 2: as we said, is that this has been going on
Speaker 2: now for so long that we've gotten far too comfortable
Speaker 2: with the situation. It was never supposed to be like this.
Speaker 2: We're supposed to have elections and we're supposed to move forward.
Speaker 2: Then Hamas won the election and we're like, no, we're
Speaker 2: no longer going to think of this as legitimate. Then
Speaker 2: is the Israeli government is like, well, we're going to
Speaker 2: put this under blockade because we've got a bunch of
Speaker 2: terrorist militants that are inside there, and if we don't,
Speaker 2: then they're just going to use the ability to have
Speaker 2: free flow of goods to smuggle weapons in and they're
Speaker 2: going to threaten our security. And instead, what we've happened
Speaker 2: is the yeah, some weapons didn't get in, but a
Speaker 2: lot did.
Speaker 3: As we all just saw.
Speaker 2: Then two point two million people in one of the
Speaker 2: most densely populated areas on Earth, the third most populated,
Speaker 2: have also been living in basic squalor. And then the
Speaker 2: Egyptians have also been participating in this blockade and they're
Speaker 2: basically cool with it at this point. The Egyptians, they
Speaker 2: don't want to deal with the Palestinians. And I think
Speaker 2: that's another place where a lot of the Arabs states
Speaker 2: they they shouldn't be let off the hook. The Kataris,
Speaker 2: the Saudis, the Egyptians, the Amorantes, the Abraham Accords and
Speaker 2: all of that was basically an attempt to just move
Speaker 2: past it.
Speaker 3: They're like, we don't want to deal with this anymore.
Speaker 4: We're just going to pretorn it doesn't exist.
Speaker 2: Right, And this is the Kataris in the Saudi Ice
Speaker 2: living guitar as people know. And they used to have
Speaker 2: little drop boxes at the mall and places like for
Speaker 2: the Palestinian cause. And I just remember looking at that
Speaker 2: and being like, you're relying on pitidy little charity from
Speaker 2: people when you were one of the richest people on earth.
Speaker 3: I'm like, what are you doing.
Speaker 2: You're not doing anything, And it's just clear they don't care,
Speaker 2: and a lot of people don't even understand.
Speaker 3: Even within the Arab.
Speaker 2: States, there's a lot of intra racism between the Gulf
Speaker 2: Arabs and the Egyptians and how they view They very
Speaker 2: much look at the Palestinians as like poorly, you know,
Speaker 2: I'm dirty and not my words.
Speaker 3: That's the way they look at them we've ever been
Speaker 3: to Jordan. The Jordanians definitely are not so happy with
Speaker 3: them either.
Speaker 4: Well, Jordan did accept a huge right.
Speaker 2: But the actual Jordanians citizens themselves, there's a lot of
Speaker 2: beef and actually resentment because a huge portion of their
Speaker 2: population is now Palestinian and they're like, they're not Jordanian,
Speaker 2: you know. So my point is just that this is
Speaker 2: a very messy and complicated situation. It gets us to
Speaker 2: the point though, where this has happened. I think with
Speaker 2: that background, what's important to remember is that the last
Speaker 2: fifteen years in particular, have been the tinder box through
Speaker 2: which all of these multiple conflicts have happened. The post
Speaker 2: Hama selection, the decision by the United States, the Arab Israelis,
Speaker 2: the Arab States, and the Israelis to basically just move
Speaker 2: past and say blockade, you know, blockade and siege is
Speaker 2: the status quo where I'm just never going to move
Speaker 2: on from that.
Speaker 3: And the peace advocates have always said.
Speaker 2: They're like, this is an untenable situation, it cannot hold,
Speaker 2: and yeah, look, nobody is justifying Hamas.
Speaker 3: Here is so.
Speaker 2: Horrific what they have done to so many of these
Speaker 2: Israeli citizens and it's just one of those where I
Speaker 2: think with that broader context, people can at least understand
Speaker 2: why this one is going to be a burn and
Speaker 2: possibly could go on for a long time because we
Speaker 2: got fifteen and in some cases one hundred year old
Speaker 2: beefs now to settle and where the lines are and
Speaker 2: who will accept whom, For example, Israel being like we're
Speaker 2: going to put under blockade, Well, the Egyptians aren't going
Speaker 2: to let them in. And in some cases they're like, oh,
Speaker 2: you know, Palestinian citizens should evacuate from this area, but
Speaker 2: in many cases, like where are they supposed to go?
Speaker 2: They literally do not have a border that they control.
Speaker 2: That's very difficult and that will lead certainly. So I
Speaker 2: really what I'm hoping from this is that the Arab Is,
Speaker 2: the Arab States, and the Egyptians have got to insert
Speaker 2: themselves into this process. Otherwise we're just see a massive
Speaker 2: loss of human life. The Israelis are going to go
Speaker 2: in or there's going to be something, and if that happens,
Speaker 2: there will be tens of.
Speaker 3: Thousands of people who are killed. Yeah, tens of thousands,
Speaker 3: and many Israelis will be killed too.
Speaker 1: Already, even without the ground invasion, the fact that you
Speaker 1: have this siege, complete siege, cut of food, water, electricity
Speaker 1: on two point two million citizens. And by the way,
Speaker 1: just as there is descent in Israel, just as there
Speaker 1: is descent here, there's descent in Gaza, there's descent in
Speaker 1: the West Bank. And and not everyone is Hamas. We're
Speaker 1: talking children, women, families, people just trying to live. So
Speaker 1: please remember that as we see all of this moving forward,
Speaker 1: and you know, all of those Israeli wars on Gaza,
Speaker 1: those they have an expression for that. They call it
Speaker 1: mowing the grass, which is the ideas periodically we have
Speaker 1: to come in and we have to blow up a
Speaker 1: bunch of billings, we have to kill a bunch of people.
Speaker 1: And by the way, it's not just Hamas militants, it's
Speaker 1: also many civilians and children who are killed in these incursions,
Speaker 1: in part, you know, because it is so densely popular.
Speaker 3: And Hamas uses it to their benefit too, There's no.
Speaker 4: Doubt about it.
Speaker 1: I mean, these there's no defense of the tactics that
Speaker 1: they deployed here and that they you know, frequently deploy
Speaker 1: but thousands of Palestinians and people living in Gaza killed
Speaker 1: routinely in these incursions. And so if the thought is, Okay,
Speaker 1: we're going to do it again, only more brutal, you
Speaker 1: think that's going to solve anything.
Speaker 2: Well, my hope is that the Israeli population because again
Speaker 2: the reason why that that the population was willing to
Speaker 2: accept that is they thought it was working. They were like, oh, okay,
Speaker 2: our people know the IDF knows exactly where they are.
Speaker 2: Would they know what they're planning. We've got them infiltrated.
Speaker 2: That's why we can go in and mow the grass.
Speaker 2: It's an effective strategy. It is a colossal failure. Yeah,
Speaker 2: colossal failure at this point, right, And in fact, you know,
Speaker 2: the Israelis are like, oh, well, we know exactly where
Speaker 2: they are and on which floor.
Speaker 3: Now I'm like, I don't know, man, I'm not sure
Speaker 3: I believe you. I used to.
Speaker 2: I honestly did, because their their surveillance and infrastructure was
Speaker 2: so good or it was so vaunted, you know here
Speaker 2: in the West and elsewhere. As the premier intelligence agency
Speaker 2: in the world, you know, nothing is off limits and
Speaker 2: there will do whatever it takes to defend them. But
Speaker 2: now after this, I mean, this is this is equivalent
Speaker 2: with a nine to eleven intelligence failure on the CIA
Speaker 2: and the FBI.
Speaker 3: They're calling it.
Speaker 2: There's nine to eleven there not their Pearl Harbor like
Speaker 2: combined into one, just because politic we're not talking about
Speaker 2: the death hole. We're talking about how it shakes the
Speaker 2: political foundation of how they think about their entire infrastructure.
Speaker 1: And that's a real warning because whether you agree with
Speaker 1: that analogy or not, I think your correct saga in
Speaker 1: the way that it has completely, in an instant, reshaped
Speaker 1: the way that Israelis are looking at the situation.
Speaker 4: Previously, they weren't even looking at the situation.
Speaker 3: No, they didn't care.
Speaker 1: It was just completely invisible. Again, as as you know,
Speaker 1: emblematic of that is a festival in favor of infinite
Speaker 1: freedom three miles from the God's border, right, And so
Speaker 1: that's not an option anymore. And let's recall the way
Speaker 1: we responded to nine to eleven, which was horrific and
Speaker 1: which we would have been better if we did nothing.
Speaker 1: The amount of death and treasure spent, American lives lost,
Speaker 1: certainly a rocky lives lost, Afghani lives lost. You know,
Speaker 1: the decades that we spent in both of those countries
Speaker 1: destabilizing the entire region, and by the way, spurring and
Speaker 1: helping create a lot more terrorism unfortunately far you know,
Speaker 1: far beyond what we were supposedly fighting and combating in
Speaker 1: the region. So when you have a real shock to
Speaker 1: the system like this, it can go in a lot
Speaker 1: of ugly directions which will reverberate for years and years
Speaker 1: to come. The last thing I want to say here,
Speaker 1: we've got put B five up on the screen because
Speaker 1: oftentimes this is presented and I get it like it's news.
Speaker 1: You're trying to cover what's happening now, et cetera, and
Speaker 1: so it can feel like, oh, this just came out
Speaker 1: of nowhere, like this conflict just started two days ago.
Speaker 1: Even in this past year, there have been a lot
Speaker 1: of warning signs because there has been real escalating violence.
Speaker 1: They go through a timeline here from the Washington Post.
Speaker 1: You know, going back a year ago in January, you
Speaker 1: had an Israeli military operation in refugee camp in Jeanine
Speaker 1: result in a shootout, killed nine Palestinians. The next day,
Speaker 1: then you have a Palestinian gunman who goes to a
Speaker 1: synagogue in retaliation, killing seven people, including children.
Speaker 3: So you have that.
Speaker 1: Then in the spring, you had during the Muslim holy
Speaker 1: month of Ramadan, Palestinian worshippers at al Aksa Mosque, which
Speaker 1: is one of the most holy sites in the Muslim religion,
Speaker 1: barricaded themselves inside the mosque. Israeli police stormed the site
Speaker 1: in the old city that you've done grenades, tear gas,
Speaker 1: far its, punge tip bullets, indiscriminately beat Muslim worshippers, including
Speaker 1: elderly people and women, with batons and rifle butts. That's
Speaker 1: according to the UN Human Rights Office. This is been
Speaker 1: an increasing point of tension, in part directly because of
Speaker 1: one of the Netanyahu's cabinet ministers, Ben Gavie, who's been
Speaker 1: intentionally provocative with regard to Alaxa and disrupting what has
Speaker 1: been a long held status quo there. About a month later,
Speaker 1: Israel launches surprise airstrikes in Godza, targeting leaders of Islamic
Speaker 1: Jahad and another militant organization which sometimes allies with Hamas.
Speaker 1: Those kill three top militants and ten others, including four
Speaker 1: women and four children. You had a summer that included
Speaker 1: more military raids on the city of Janine and the
Speaker 1: refugee camp there. You had more drones strikes actually inside
Speaker 1: of the West Bank, and significantly you had increasing violence
Speaker 1: between Palestinians and Jewish settlers.
Speaker 3: Yes, that's a big part of it.
Speaker 1: These settlements are illegal under international law. They're part of
Speaker 1: the immediate problem here is the fact that these settlements
Speaker 1: were being protected by the IDF in lieu of protecting
Speaker 1: you know, these border towns around Gaza.
Speaker 4: So there'd been a huge redeployment towards.
Speaker 1: This area, and you had Israeli settlers who were rampaging
Speaker 1: through Palestinian towns, tons of violence there, and so you know,
Speaker 1: it's not like there was nothing going on and it
Speaker 1: was all peace and quiet, and then this attack comes
Speaker 1: out of nowhere. And then you add to that the
Speaker 1: geopolitical situation of this potential deal Saudi normalization with Israel
Speaker 1: that obviously they're very unhappy with, and it led to,
Speaker 1: you know, absolute horror.
Speaker 2: I also want to say there were some signs here
Speaker 2: with which the Israelis were ignoring. A good friend of mine,
Speaker 2: Trey Yanks. I used to cover the White House with him.
Speaker 2: He's now the Fox News correspondent actually in Israel. He's
Speaker 2: one of the I'm telling you, one of those unbiased
Speaker 2: people just because he just points the camera and he'll
Speaker 2: be like, here's what's happening right now at this state.
Speaker 3: He flagged this.
Speaker 2: Actually, he's done multiple interviews with Hamas, with Palestinian Islamic
Speaker 2: Jihad and with the IDF, and he flagged this from
Speaker 2: August of twenty fifth, twenty twenty three, almost a month ago.
Speaker 2: A little bit over a month ago. He says, quote,
Speaker 2: we are preparing for all out war. The deputy head
Speaker 2: of the Political Bureau of Hamash they were not like
Speaker 2: they weren't they were doing working. Yeah, exactly, they were practicing.
Speaker 4: And this was known.
Speaker 1: They were practicing raids on Israeli villages. I mean, you know,
Speaker 1: they were pretending like they were going in, and the
Speaker 1: IDF and Masad and Yahoo, they all thought this was
Speaker 1: just a fate, that this was just bluster there. They
Speaker 1: also had started I guess there's at times Hamas will
Speaker 1: prohibit people from protesting at the border fence. They had
Speaker 1: allowed these protests to restart. This was also just seen
Speaker 1: as trying to get leverage to get more work permits
Speaker 1: into Israel. And so in any case, just an unbelievable failure.
Speaker 4: And it's so.
Speaker 1: Hard to put into words how tragic this situation is,
Speaker 1: the horror on the Israeli side and the horror on
Speaker 1: the Palestinian side, and what they're you know, this complete
Speaker 1: siege now and attacks on marketplace and moss and apartment buildings,
Speaker 1: et cetera, which are also murdering innocent civilians.
Speaker 4: And what's so.
Speaker 1: Difficult about it is it's just so hard to see
Speaker 1: a way out at this point. And we're about to
Speaker 1: talk to to ken Roth and I'll bring him in
Speaker 1: a moment. But I think in the US we continue
Speaker 1: to hold on to this fiction of like, oh, we're
Speaker 1: going to get to a two state solution. Nanna, who
Speaker 1: has abandoned any pretense that they're working towards a two
Speaker 1: state solution. He has his whole policy has been basically like, no,
Speaker 1: this is the status quo.
Speaker 4: We're just going to keep it as it is.
Speaker 1: We're gonna have the blockade, we're going to occupy West Bank,
Speaker 1: we're going to continue to build out these illegal settlements,
Speaker 1: which in previous agreements they had agreed not to do.
Speaker 1: While they continue to build it out. They've even within
Speaker 1: the West Bank, they're like, it's not you think of
Speaker 1: that as Oh, it's this one territory. No, it's all
Speaker 1: divided up to make room for these illegal settlements. There
Speaker 1: are certain roads you're not even allowed to drive on
Speaker 1: if you're Palestinian that are built just for the settlers,
Speaker 1: and so it's made it a real impossibility to actually
Speaker 1: have a feasible two state solution.
Speaker 4: They're not interested in it.
Speaker 3: I don't think so.
Speaker 1: I mean that's part of I think the reality here is.
Speaker 1: You know again, I just want to be one hundred
Speaker 1: percent clear. Nothing justifies attacks on civilians. Nothing we say
Speaker 1: here justifies this whatsoever. But if you're looking at it
Speaker 1: on the Palestine, they've tried nonviolent It's not like they
Speaker 1: haven't tried nonviolent protests and been met with bullets.
Speaker 4: By the way, you know BDS.
Speaker 1: If you support BDS, you're anti Semite, so that's off
Speaker 1: the table. They've tried violent resistance before certainly too that
Speaker 1: hasn't worked either.
Speaker 4: And it seems like a.
Speaker 1: Completely untenable, unsustainable situation that is just going to certainly
Speaker 1: lead to more pain, chaos, and death moving forward.
Speaker 4: And it's hard to see a.
Speaker 3: Real way of That's what I was going to say.
Speaker 2: I don't think that it is possible to see any
Speaker 2: political ceasefire settlement on this until a colossal loss of
Speaker 2: life is going to happen. And I don't say that
Speaker 2: because I want it to happen. I just don't think.
Speaker 2: I don't really see a scenario. I mean, think about
Speaker 2: you know, post nine eleven, it was politically untenable to
Speaker 2: try and pursue like basically nothing. The only thing that
Speaker 2: was politically tenable was to basically just full scale war.
Speaker 2: That's why the American people, even though Sadamasayin had nothing
Speaker 2: to do with nine to eleven, two years later, we're
Speaker 2: willing to have a massive ground invasion. I wouldn't be
Speaker 2: very much doubt the ability for the Israelis not to
Speaker 2: have the same domestic thing also, although I hope not,
Speaker 2: given that they have a lot more experience with war.
Speaker 3: Same on the Palestinian side.
Speaker 2: You know, at this point you're locked in and then
Speaker 2: and then all it takes is one actual attack that
Speaker 2: you know, one bomb that goes wrong, a couple hundred
Speaker 2: civilians are killed, and now that's your justification for fighting,
Speaker 2: and everything just keeps upping the ante over and over
Speaker 2: and over and over again. So without the direct intervention
Speaker 2: of the Arab States, the Egyptians and the United States.
Speaker 2: This is almost certain to just go and drag on
Speaker 2: now for a long time, basically as.
Speaker 3: It has been.
Speaker 2: It's just a recurring and also politically, there will be
Speaker 2: the I don't think these really populous at this at
Speaker 2: some point. This two taste pollution things, two tastes, two states.
Speaker 2: Solution inside of Israel is always complicated in terms of
Speaker 2: how the ultra orthodox and the religious Jews felt about
Speaker 2: versus how the secular is really Jews. But at this point,
Speaker 2: the talking point from the right has always been, well,
Speaker 2: if we give them a state, they're just going to
Speaker 2: use the state in order to attack us. And now
Speaker 2: this is the ultimate gift that Hamas has given them,
Speaker 2: because they're like, see, we gave it to them. Even
Speaker 2: under blockade, even under occupation, they were still able to
Speaker 2: get their stuff. So that means, you know, their solution
Speaker 2: to this is full scale occupation, complete reconquest to drive
Speaker 2: out Hamas. And that's basically what a counterinsurgency. That just
Speaker 2: means you have a slow burn conflict again now for
Speaker 2: a long time, and no political settlement. So I think
Speaker 2: it's going to be a long time, and I think
Speaker 2: it's a really horrific human tragedy. And I think with that,
Speaker 2: you know, we've got a good guest standing by Ken Roth.
Speaker 6: Let's get to it.
Speaker 1: Honored to be joined this morning by a front of
Speaker 1: the show. Ken Roth, who is the former longtime executive
Speaker 1: director of Human Rights Watch and also now a visiting
Speaker 1: professor at Princeton, has a book coming out probably next fall.
Speaker 4: We're looking forward to that as well. Great to have you, sir.
Speaker 6: Thank be back. Thank you.
Speaker 1: First, just your initial thoughts on some of the domestic
Speaker 1: political context within Israel as we watched, you know, the
Speaker 1: horror of this carnage that unfolded on Israeli citizens.
Speaker 9: Well, you know, obviously this Hamas attack was a blatant
Speaker 9: war crime. You know, they went after civilians. You know,
Speaker 9: they went to this music festival and seemed to have
Speaker 9: massacred two hundred and fifty, you know, just music enjoyers.
Speaker 9: They went around you know, villages and towns near Gaza
Speaker 9: and rounded up civilians and brought them back to Gaza
Speaker 9: as hostages. You know, these are all blatant war crimes.
Speaker 9: And I guess people are asking how did this happen?
Speaker 9: Because Israeli intelligence is known for being you know, kind
Speaker 9: of well integrated into Gaza.
Speaker 6: They tend to know what's going on.
Speaker 9: And you know, if you listen to Hamas, they clearly
Speaker 9: were planning this for months and months. So I don't
Speaker 9: know why it broke down. I mean, clearly some people
Speaker 9: saw it. For the people higher up just didn't believe it.
Speaker 9: You know, often the key to intelligence is not so
Speaker 9: much what are the physical things that are happening, but
Speaker 9: what are the intentions behind those events? And you know,
Speaker 9: somebody misread the intentions. They thought that Hamas was much
Speaker 9: more interested at this stage and you know, making money
Speaker 9: and running Gaza than in launching an attack of this sort.
Speaker 6: So you know, there will have to be a clear inquiry.
Speaker 9: You know, what we don't really know is to what
Speaker 9: extent have the divisions within Israel contributed to this failure,
Speaker 9: because you know, as everybody is aware, Netanyahu's far right
Speaker 9: government has been you know, not only rapidly expanding settlements
Speaker 9: in the West Bank, but they've been attacking the independence
Speaker 9: of Israel's judiciary, you know, really undermining the checks and
Speaker 9: balances of a democracy. This has led to massive protests
Speaker 9: in Israel, really unprecedented protests, Real divisions within the society.
Speaker 9: You know, did that contribute to the intelligence failure here?
Speaker 9: You know, we don't know yet. There will clearly be inquiries,
Speaker 9: but that was the backdrop that may have been a
Speaker 9: big factor here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's an important one that actually one of the
Speaker 2: lead editorials, and Haratz can put this up there on
Speaker 2: the screen just yesterday, was calling for the removal of
Speaker 2: Neta Yahu. They say Notata Yaho bears responsibility for this
Speaker 2: Israel Gaza war, specifically highlighting the issues that you're talking about,
Speaker 2: not only in terms of the protest but also deployment
Speaker 2: with regards to settlement. So I'm curious if you could
Speaker 2: give the audience some background that might have played there
Speaker 2: in terms of the IDF response then immediately, and then
Speaker 2: how the political impact then on that decision and how
Speaker 2: Israelis could be digesting that news in real time.
Speaker 9: Well, I mean, clearly, if you look back at the
Speaker 9: last couple of months, I mean, not only has Israel
Speaker 9: been preoccupied by Netanyahu's assaults on Israel's democracy, but it
Speaker 9: has also been a violent period in the West Bank.
Speaker 9: You know, Nettayah, who really in order to save his
Speaker 9: skin in order to avoid corruption charges, made this far
Speaker 9: right government is the only one he could assemble because
Speaker 9: most of the moderates did not want to join with
Speaker 9: him while he faced these corruption charges. And you know,
Speaker 9: they have pursued, you know, not only an active settlement
Speaker 9: building process, which itself is a war crime under the
Speaker 9: fortunate of convention, but they also seem to have given
Speaker 9: the green light to settlers to engage in acts of violence.
Speaker 9: There have been a series of raids on you know,
Speaker 9: what are said to be armed groups in the West Bank,
Speaker 9: and so you know, really the idea has been largely
Speaker 9: focused on the West Bank. And you know, again, I know,
Speaker 9: I can't say, you know why they were asleep with
Speaker 9: the switch on this. And it was also a Saturday
Speaker 9: that the Jewish Sabbath. It was an important holiday. You know,
Speaker 9: the idea that Israel's enemies would use an important Jewish
Speaker 9: holiday to attack Israel is hardly unprecedented, and you would
Speaker 9: think that people would have been awake to this possibility.
Speaker 1: Yes, I found it remarkable that at Haretz, which is
Speaker 1: sort of like I mean, correct me if I'm wrong,
Speaker 1: but it's sort of like the New York Times of Israel,
Speaker 1: that their lead editorial was so scathing of net Nyahoo
Speaker 1: and so immediately, I mean that was the instant reactions.
Speaker 1: They said, the disaster that befelt Israel was the responsibility
Speaker 1: of one person. Benjamin Netanyaho, the Prime Minister, has prided
Speaker 1: himself on his vast political experience and irreplaceable wisdom in
Speaker 1: security matters, completely failed to identify the dangers he was
Speaker 1: consciously leading Israel into when establishing a government of annexation
Speaker 1: and dispossession. Goes on to name check some of the
Speaker 1: most extreme cabinet officials that he has included in his government.
Speaker 1: There have been a lot of comparisons made to nine
Speaker 1: to eleven, saying, you know, this is basically Israel's nine
Speaker 1: to eleven and in terms of the shock to the system,
Speaker 1: But there was a very different immediate reaction here to
Speaker 1: nine to eleven, which was rally around the flag.
Speaker 4: No one could criticize George W. Bush. I mean that
Speaker 4: lasted for.
Speaker 1: Quite some time. His approval ratings ended up being sky high.
Speaker 1: It doesn't seem in the initial phases like there is
Speaker 1: that unanimity of analysis in Israel right now about the
Speaker 1: person of Netanyahu himself.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean that Tenneho is a very controversial figure.
Speaker 9: You know, precisely because his top priority has always been
Speaker 9: to save himself. Now, Howatz, I mean, I think the
Speaker 9: analogy to the New York Times is accurate, and that
Speaker 9: it's it's highly respected, it's also left of center, and
Speaker 9: it's it's a big thing atayah who critic you know,
Speaker 9: the way the New York Times would have been saying
Speaker 9: Trump critics. So, you know, it's not that surprising that
Speaker 9: this comes from Howatz. You know, there is a rally
Speaker 9: around the flag tendency whenever, you know, a major attack
Speaker 9: comes like this, and clearly the you know, the loss
Speaker 9: of civilian light has just been tragic. I do think though,
Speaker 9: that there are lessons to be learned from nine to eleven, because,
Speaker 9: you know, if we look back then, at first, you know,
Speaker 9: the US government really had the moral high ground around
Speaker 9: the world. There was this you know, outpouring of sympathy
Speaker 9: or horror, and over the course of a couple of years,
Speaker 9: Bush dissipated that. That's but he lost the moral high ground,
Speaker 9: you know, because of his highly abusive ground war in Iraq,
Speaker 9: you know, because of his use of torture and secret
Speaker 9: detention centers, because of his long term detention without trial
Speaker 9: at Guantanamo, and I think that that is a lesson
Speaker 9: that I hope the Israeli government heats that, you know,
Speaker 9: if it wants to maintain the moral high ground that
Speaker 9: at this moment it enjoys because of these attacks on
Speaker 9: its civilians, it has to be careful how it responds.
Speaker 9: And you know, already there have been elements of the
Speaker 9: response that are troubling.
Speaker 6: You know.
Speaker 9: Obviously, you know, Israel has every right under the laws
Speaker 9: of war to attack hamas military facilities. But you know,
Speaker 9: there's already been a mosque hit, a market hit. There
Speaker 9: was a deliberate destruction of a large apartment building, which.
Speaker 6: Has happened in prior wars.
Speaker 9: I'm sure these Raelies will say, oh, there was you know,
Speaker 9: some tiny comas office somewhere in there. But you know,
Speaker 9: the end result is that there are you know, one
Speaker 9: hundred people who suddenly have lost their homes. Israeli give
Speaker 9: they give a warning first, so people evacuate, but then
Speaker 9: this massive apartment building is destroyed.
Speaker 6: So this is the kind of thing that does lose
Speaker 6: the moral high ground.
Speaker 9: Just this morning, the Defense Minister announced that there would
Speaker 9: be a total seed of Gaza, So you know, no food,
Speaker 9: no electricity, no nothing gets in.
Speaker 6: Now, this is you know, a.
Speaker 9: Territory of two million plus people that already was suffering
Speaker 9: under you know, the perennial Israeli blockade. But in a war,
Speaker 9: warring parties have a duty to permit the free flow
Speaker 9: of humanitarian aid. And so what the Defense Minister is
Speaker 9: basically saying is, you know, we don't care about the
Speaker 9: laws of world We're just going to block all aid
Speaker 9: going into Gaza. Now, you know, this is just a
Speaker 9: statement so far. We don't know if they will actually
Speaker 9: do it, but you know it's a statement of an
Speaker 9: intention to commit a work on and this is the
Speaker 9: kind of response that will very quickly lose Israel.
Speaker 6: This sympathy that it has.
Speaker 9: People are going to Yes, you know, they'll be appalled
Speaker 9: at the loss of Israeli civilian life, but very quickly,
Speaker 9: if this continues, they're going to be appalled at the
Speaker 9: loss of Palestinian civilian life and the tables will turn
Speaker 9: very quickly.
Speaker 4: Yeah. One of the things that's part of that statement,
Speaker 4: that's your question.
Speaker 1: But he said, we are fighting human animals and we
Speaker 1: act accordingly.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: One of the things I wanted to ask you, Ken
Speaker 2: is you've been emphasizing and long have international humanitarian law.
Speaker 2: So as we enter this next phase of the conflict,
Speaker 2: we still await any possible it is really you know,
Speaker 2: invasion of Gaza, a reoccupation, or a future possible two
Speaker 2: front war breakout. Can you just lay out what that
Speaker 2: can look like, as you alluded to, in terms of
Speaker 2: rights of how to strike militants, how Hamas itself is
Speaker 2: guilty of war crimes, and then what that should adhere
Speaker 2: to in the future, even though it's very.
Speaker 6: Likely will not okay.
Speaker 9: Well, the laws of war, you know, basically the Geneva
Speaker 9: Conventions and their protocols are pretty straightforward in this area.
Speaker 9: You know, you are allowed, in the context of a
Speaker 9: war to shoot and try to kill the other sides combat,
Speaker 9: so you know, that's what war is about. Unfortunate that
Speaker 9: it is. But you cannot is deliberately target civilians. On
Speaker 9: the other side, you cannot indiscriminately fire into civilian areas.
Speaker 9: You can not attack even a military target if the
Speaker 9: harm to civilians will be disproportionate, And obviously you cannot
Speaker 9: take civilians hostages. You know, you can capture combatants. You
Speaker 9: can capture a soldier. That's okay, but you cannot see civilians.
Speaker 9: You've got to allow free flow of humanitarian aid. As
Speaker 9: I mentioned. Now, you know these are the laws. I mean,
Speaker 9: Hamas clearly was breaching them, you know, right extremely in
Speaker 9: its attack on Saturday.
Speaker 6: The question is real the Israeli government followed these rules
Speaker 6: and you.
Speaker 9: Know often in the past they haven't and their initial
Speaker 9: forays are not that encouraging. This is not simply an
Speaker 9: abstract issue. The International Criminal Court, you know, the kind
Speaker 9: of the Global War Crimes Tribunal, does have jurisdiction over
Speaker 9: anything that happens in Gaza. And so you know, if
Speaker 9: there are blatant war crimes, the prosecutor could act. I mean,
Speaker 9: he has been slow to act on Israel Palestine. He's
Speaker 9: had an open investigation now for some time. This could
Speaker 9: spur him finally to act. And so you know, everybody's
Speaker 9: got to think about do they really want an arrest
Speaker 9: warrant for them, the ability to travel really, you know,
Speaker 9: any place in Europe because all of Europe is a member.
Speaker 6: Of the ICC.
Speaker 9: You know, these are things that are are kind of
Speaker 9: a real threat hanging over not only Hamas, but also
Speaker 9: is really official.
Speaker 1: Do you really think it's a real threat though, because
Speaker 1: I mean, the whole reason they could be so brazen
Speaker 1: in pre announcing a war crime is because it's they've
Speaker 1: gotten away with it before. I mean, it would not
Speaker 1: be I mean, the settlements are illegal. I mean, there's
Speaker 1: there's war crimes committed from the Israeli side all the time.
Speaker 1: And not only is there no accountability in terms of
Speaker 1: international criminal corps, but there's no accountability with regard to
Speaker 1: you know, their greatest run, the United States of America,
Speaker 1: which continues to do what they want and send them,
Speaker 1: you know, all the aid and condition it on absolutely nothing.
Speaker 4: So isn't it the right?
Speaker 6: Yeah, anyway, horrible in that regard.
Speaker 1: So do you actually think that there could be something
Speaker 1: that's different this time? Because I'll say, on the other
Speaker 1: side of things, you know, we talked about the New
Speaker 1: York Times of Israel, the New York Times of the
Speaker 1: New York Times actually has a little bit of a
Speaker 1: different tone this time than in previous Israeli wars. On Gaza,
Speaker 1: Israeli Palestinian conflicts. You're seeing even some dissident voices on CNN,
Speaker 1: some Palestinian voices on CNN. You see a little more
Speaker 1: dissent within the Democratic Caucus. So do you think there
Speaker 1: could be a change in perception and coverage this time
Speaker 1: that actually may change the outcome here.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 9: Well, I mean, let me just first, in terms of
Speaker 9: the broader political background that you're alluding to, there has
Speaker 9: been a change in i think the tone of the
Speaker 9: debate in the United States, a growing recognition that the
Speaker 9: Israeli government has been imposing apartheid on the occupy territory,
Speaker 9: a growing real dislike for the far right government.
Speaker 6: That Natanya who is leading.
Speaker 9: So, you know, it has been possible in the US
Speaker 9: political context, certainly in the broader public, maybe less so
Speaker 9: for the moment in Congress, but it's changing to speak,
Speaker 9: you know, much more critically about Israel. Now the other
Speaker 9: interesting development, I mean you talk about how you know,
Speaker 9: Israel's committed these war crimes in the past and has
Speaker 9: gotten away with that, and that's you know, completely true.
Speaker 6: I mean, the US basically protects it.
Speaker 9: You may recall that when the International Criminal Court prosecuted
Speaker 9: the prior one, Fatu Bensuda announced that she was opening
Speaker 9: an investigation into Palestine because Palestine is the member of
Speaker 9: the court, so you know, looking at crimes committed on
Speaker 9: the territory of Palestine. Trump imposed sanctions on the prosecutor
Speaker 9: and her deputy, you know, an outrageous interference with the
Speaker 9: independence of this judicial institution. Now, you know, Biden, his credit,
Speaker 9: lifted those sanctions. But more interestingly, the US government traditionally
Speaker 9: has opposed the Court having jurisdiction simply because a crime
Speaker 9: is committed on the territory of a member of the Court.
Speaker 6: They said it should only.
Speaker 9: Go after people whose governments have joined the Nobody else
Speaker 9: believes that.
Speaker 6: But that's the US position.
Speaker 9: But the US has now changed that position in Ukraine
Speaker 9: because Ukraine has given the Court jurisdiction. Russia is not
Speaker 9: a member, and the US even Biden himself the charges
Speaker 9: against Putin, so in essence, at least in that context,
Speaker 9: they have thrown away the US objection to territorial jurisdiction.
Speaker 9: That's the only reason to object to the Court acting
Speaker 9: on crimes committed in Palestinian territory. So the US can
Speaker 9: be completely unprincipled and say it's okay in Ukraine but
Speaker 9: not okay in Gaza. You know, suddenly the Court will
Speaker 9: have the latitude to act in a way that never
Speaker 9: had before.
Speaker 3: I wouldn't put it past them. But you are right.
Speaker 2: We appreciate you joining us, mister Roth. You're always such
Speaker 2: a great person to talk to, and I'm sure we'll
Speaker 2: have you back.
Speaker 4: So thank you, yeah, thank you so much for taking
Speaker 4: the time.
Speaker 6: Good singing.
Speaker 2: At the same time, we have some major implicants for
Speaker 2: US policy, both on the presidential side and on the
Speaker 2: House speaker side. Don't forget the House speakership remains completely empty.
Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and put this up there on the screen.
Speaker 2: The Israel War has now added major urgency to the
Speaker 2: US Republican House speaker crisis, because as long as there's
Speaker 2: no speaker, nothing can happen on the floor of the
Speaker 2: House of Representatives. We've narrowed it down to two candidates,
Speaker 2: Steve Scalice and Jim Jordan. Both have basically announced like
Speaker 2: unequivocal aid for Israel. But the main thing is that
Speaker 2: whenever it comes to the speakership is that many who
Speaker 2: have called for more US military aid to Israel. Obviously
Speaker 2: that cannot pass if there is no speaker. So that
Speaker 2: is now a major incentive, I guess for a lot
Speaker 2: of Republicans. In order to wrap this up earlier, and
Speaker 2: just so people remember, for how this all works, there
Speaker 2: will be a secret meeting, secret ballot or whatever tonight,
Speaker 2: another meeting on Tuesday, and then a vote is scheduled
Speaker 2: for the speaker on Wednesday. There is no indication that
Speaker 2: will actually happen, that in terms of it will actually
Speaker 2: get resolved in terms of the two major candidates. Like
Speaker 2: we said, things have basically been narrowed down Crystal to
Speaker 2: Jim Jordan and to Steve Scalise. But it is interesting
Speaker 2: because prior to this the only major international question was
Speaker 2: Ukraine AID. Jim Jordan specifically came out against AID two Ukraine.
Speaker 2: Steve Scalie has been silent on a to Ukraine. But
Speaker 2: now Israel being the preeminent international issue here in Washington,
Speaker 2: obviously there's far more bipars and consensus on that one
Speaker 2: in terms of in Congress. And the thing is though,
Speaker 2: is that that well then add major urgency to some
Speaker 2: of the possible holdouts, people like Nancy Mace, Matt Gates
Speaker 2: and others in order to actually have a speedy election.
Speaker 2: That said, and I know, but I had, we still
Speaker 2: have to follow obviously the political news. Nancy Mace and
Speaker 2: Matt Gates and many others have come out in support
Speaker 2: of Jim Jordan some of these holdouts.
Speaker 3: So that's pretty much Trump and Donald Trump.
Speaker 4: Has backed Jim Jordan right now.
Speaker 1: I'm curious from your perspective, if Trump's endorsement of Jordan
Speaker 1: is one hundred percent a good thing, whether there is
Speaker 1: some complications with that, because you do have some moderate
Speaker 1: Republicans in particular who are just elected New York in
Speaker 1: Joe Biden districts, who are you know, doing their best
Speaker 1: to try to distance themselves from the more extreme ranks
Speaker 1: of the party and from Donald Trump himself.
Speaker 4: So what do you think about that.
Speaker 2: I think I'd rather have it than not, because especially
Speaker 2: because the people who all voted to als. Kevin McCarthy, Yeah,
Speaker 2: all of those people are you know, disciples of Trump,
Speaker 2: except for Nancy Mace, who, as Kevin said, what did
Speaker 2: he say, He's like, well, she's in the league of
Speaker 2: her owner. That's a whole other story. And I think
Speaker 2: he's correct, But you're correct.
Speaker 1: What she just seems like one she got her finger
Speaker 1: in the very ambitious finger in the winds go and
Speaker 1: wear out.
Speaker 4: Because she's herself as like a moderate.
Speaker 1: You know, now she's stalling herself as some like dissident
Speaker 1: Matt Gates.
Speaker 3: Type, whatever, let's put her to the side.
Speaker 2: Yes, there are other New York Republicans that he said,
Speaker 2: guys like Mike Lawler and others who they would not
Speaker 2: necessarily vote somebody for Trump. But I think what the
Speaker 2: Republicans will do in the Israel situation actually adds this
Speaker 2: if they can try and hammer this all out behind
Speaker 2: and also with some demands and other things made by
Speaker 2: Matt Gates where he basically said, I'll give up the
Speaker 2: entire motion to vacate if you guys agree to this
Speaker 2: legislation that Rokana is introduced about term limits, about stock
Speaker 2: trade and bands and others. There could be some interesting
Speaker 2: horse trading behind the scenes. Obviously we're massively supportive of that,
Speaker 2: and we will. This show is all about mostly about
Speaker 2: Israel and its impact, but we'll get to that later
Speaker 2: in the week. So please don't worry, especially whenever we
Speaker 2: do have a speaker election. What I think that adds
Speaker 2: the complication to this is that because he only needs
Speaker 2: seven or eight, as you said, you may be able
Speaker 2: to get the seven or eight holdouts on the anti
Speaker 2: McCarthy side, But now you might have seven or eight
Speaker 2: holdouts on the Steve Scalise side, who may not agree
Speaker 2: to have Jim Jordan. I would though, think that the
Speaker 2: amount of pressure that the Israel situation is putting on
Speaker 2: Congress there is much more of a apt like a
Speaker 2: push from party leaders from colleagues to fold nearly immediately.
Speaker 2: So whoever does win that first ballot, I think they're
Speaker 2: going to have a major advantage because there can be Look, guys,
Speaker 2: we got to coalesce, We've got.
Speaker 3: To get this done. That's what I think that that's
Speaker 3: this situation really does speed up. I think the speaker electtion.
Speaker 1: That's my read of the situation as well. And moderates
Speaker 1: quote unquote moderates would be the first to like cave
Speaker 1: to that kind of pressure too, and they tend to
Speaker 1: be the most overtly pro Israel as well. So that's
Speaker 1: my read of the situation too. There is an interesting
Speaker 1: dynamic here. So you know, we've been saying, and everybody's
Speaker 1: been saying, like, oh, you can't do anything in the
Speaker 1: House until you have an official speaker. So the speaker
Speaker 1: ProTem really can't do anything except for hold votes to
Speaker 1: get a speaker. That's all you can do until you
Speaker 1: actually have a speaker. Well, now that there's a question
Speaker 1: of support for Israel and Israeli aid, now they're like, well,
Speaker 1: maybe it's a little different than what we were saying before.
Speaker 1: Put this up on the screen from Axios. They say, scoop,
Speaker 1: House members tee up pro Israel resolution and part of
Speaker 1: the idea here with this, it's an apac written resolution
Speaker 1: just basically to say we stand with Israel and they
Speaker 1: have a right to self defense or whatever it says. Basically,
Speaker 1: the idea is to push a new precedent of what
Speaker 1: the speaker ProTem can actually do and can actually accomplish.
Speaker 1: They quote this Georgetown law professor Josh Chafitz, who says
Speaker 1: if they pass a resolution, it does then create a
Speaker 1: precedent that they can do substantive business. Another individual is
Speaker 1: director of Structural Democracy at the Bipytisan Policy Center, said
Speaker 1: there's probably very little, if any, actual restriction on what
Speaker 1: a majority of the House could do right now. So
Speaker 1: that's another avenue is that they continue to push off
Speaker 1: the resolution of who's actually going to be Speaker of
Speaker 1: the House, but they just decide they can do whatever
Speaker 1: they want anyway.
Speaker 3: In the meantime, well, they can always find a way
Speaker 3: can't they Christian?
Speaker 1: Yeah, when they want to. It's amazing how quickly they're
Speaker 1: able to act.
Speaker 2: The other funny constitutional questions are whether Patrick McHenry, the
Speaker 2: Speaker pro temper, is even allowed to get an intelligence briefing.
Speaker 2: That's been a big brew haha, here in Washington. Can
Speaker 2: he be briefed? Can he not be briefed? He's the
Speaker 2: interim speaker, you know, in the meantime. But the major
Speaker 2: thing I think you need to know is that this
Speaker 2: will accelerate the process. It will put a lot of pressure,
Speaker 2: especially because they want to be able to pass not
Speaker 2: necessarily just a military package, although I do think that
Speaker 2: will come with time, but a resolution or something like
Speaker 2: that expressing support for the Israeli people. The government itself
Speaker 2: wants to be able to have some nimble action, and
Speaker 2: without a speaker, you quite literally can't do anything in Congress,
Speaker 2: pass any legislation.
Speaker 3: I would also.
Speaker 2: Remind everyone there are multiple other big bills that still
Speaker 2: need to pass. The NDAA, the actual funding of the
Speaker 2: National Defense Authorization Act for the Pentagon.
Speaker 3: Almost certainly that's going to.
Speaker 2: Include a writer quote unquote, which is like an addition
Speaker 2: for Ukraine and for Israel.
Speaker 9: Wall.
Speaker 2: Will the politics like that look like. How will the
Speaker 2: Israeli Ukraine debate be affected. It could be linked together,
Speaker 2: it could be split apart. They could argue we need
Speaker 2: to favor one over the other. I'll enjoy watching them
Speaker 2: that one fight out that will play out in the party.
Speaker 1: That's one potential direction is they tie additional Ukraine aid
Speaker 1: and additional is AID together. And a lot of the
Speaker 1: people who are opposed to Ukraine aid are very much
Speaker 1: in favor of Israel Aid, so that could be one
Speaker 1: tool that they use to try to get the next
Speaker 1: round of Ukrainian aid through the House. We'll see how
Speaker 1: this all shakes out. Still a lot of questions there
Speaker 1: how this is going to move forward, but certainly puts
Speaker 1: a lot of pressure and changes a lot.
Speaker 3: Of political dynamic. That is the major thing that you
Speaker 3: need to know about that.
Speaker 7: Now.
Speaker 2: In terms of the actual political response, there has been
Speaker 2: a major war now breaking out within the GOP about
Speaker 2: how the response should be. Nikki Hayley obviously taking up
Speaker 2: the Neo Khon mantle and basically calling for war with
Speaker 2: Iran as a result of this and a complete flattening
Speaker 2: of Gaza.
Speaker 3: Here's what she had to say.
Speaker 8: But let's step back because I want the American people
Speaker 8: to kind of take this in for a second. Just
Speaker 8: imagine that here, the Israelis woke up and communities were bombarded.
Speaker 8: Families were murdered, women and children were taken hostage, dragged
Speaker 8: through the street, the elderly were taken. All of this
Speaker 8: has happened in front of everyone, on top of thousands.
Speaker 6: Of rockets that hit Israel.
Speaker 8: This should be personal for every woman and man in America.
Speaker 8: Why because when they did this, when they did this
Speaker 8: surprise attack, when they took these hostages, when they murdered
Speaker 8: these families, they were celebrating. And what were they celebrating.
Speaker 8: They were saying death to Israel, Death to America.
Speaker 3: This is not just.
Speaker 8: An attack on Israel. This is an attack on America
Speaker 8: because they hate us just as much. America can never
Speaker 8: be so arrogant to think we don't need friends just
Speaker 8: like we needed them on nine to eleven. That's why
Speaker 8: Ukraine needs us when Russia is doing this, That's why
Speaker 8: Israel needs us when Hamas and Iran are doing this.
Speaker 8: And I'll say this to Prime Minister Netanyahu, finish them,
Speaker 8: Finish them. Hamas did this, you know Iran's behind it.
Speaker 8: Finish them. They should have hell to pay for what they've.
Speaker 2: Just done, calling for war with Hamas, calling for war
Speaker 2: with Iran's saying that this is an attack on America.
Speaker 2: Former Vice President Mike Pen's taking shot at his old
Speaker 2: running mate Donald Trump, as well as vivig Ramaswami and
Speaker 2: Ron DeSantis also in reaction.
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.
Speaker 10: Well, I am, but let me begin at where we
Speaker 10: ought to start. I mean that disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan
Speaker 10: is emboldened the enemies of freedom around the world, and
Speaker 10: now war is raging in Eastern Europe. And President Joe
Speaker 10: Biden's cow towing for the last two and a half
Speaker 10: years to the Malas in Iran, lifting sanctions, begging them
Speaker 10: to get back in the Iran Nuclear Deal, and then
Speaker 10: paying six billion dollars in a ransom for hostages. I
Speaker 10: think set the conditions for this unprecedented terrorist attack by
Speaker 10: Hamas against Israel. But I also believe this is what
Speaker 10: happens when we have leading voices like Donald Trump, vivek Ramswami,
Speaker 10: and Ron DeSantis signaling retreat from America's role as leader
Speaker 10: of the free world. Look what happened in Ukraine was
Speaker 10: an unprovoked invasion by Russia. What happened this weekend was
Speaker 10: an unprovoked invasion by Hamas into Israel. And I really
Speaker 10: believe now more than ever, both the debate within the
Speaker 10: Republican Party and the debate within America is whether or
Speaker 10: not we're going to once again stand without apology as
Speaker 10: the leader of the free world, as the arsenal of democracy.
Speaker 3: This is its two thousand and five. If I listen
Speaker 3: to these.
Speaker 1: People, seriously, how many wars did these people want to
Speaker 1: get in? Yea, I know, so we just had China
Speaker 1: the list while we're at it, just for fun. I mean,
Speaker 1: a lot of folks beyond very happy.
Speaker 4: Right now.
Speaker 3: I am in the bridge Colby Camp.
Speaker 2: I am personally doubtful we could win a single war,
Speaker 2: let alone like five wars as a result of the
Speaker 2: current state of the US military.
Speaker 3: One of the reasons I'm so against a to Ukraine.
Speaker 2: And they have these to them, there's the limitless number
Speaker 2: and the checkbook for what can happen, and also that
Speaker 2: there's no idea that you have to irioritize certain things
Speaker 2: that actually advocate and work for your national interest. And uh,
Speaker 2: Nikki Haley, this is an attack on America, begging Prime
Speaker 2: Minister Natanyahu basically to strike Iran. I mean, Iran is
Speaker 2: not some pitally little country. This is a massive country,
Speaker 2: huge population, huge army. I'm not saying that they're you know,
Speaker 2: like I'm not saying they're like a great power. But
Speaker 2: it's not a joke. And there's a reason why we
Speaker 2: have not undertaken strikes on Iran. And one there's a
Speaker 2: reason why US military planners consider it a nightmare scenario
Speaker 2: because it has a neighbor with Iraq. They have a
Speaker 2: proven military capability with the IRGC and others, and it
Speaker 2: would just cause even more chaos and destabilization in the region.
Speaker 2: Same with Mike Pence, as you're saying, it's like to them,
Speaker 2: everything stems back to Ukraine and then to Afghanistan. How
Speaker 2: about this. The world is messy and not everything is interconnected.
Speaker 2: I hear the from the Ukraine first people all the
Speaker 2: time too. They're like, well, we got to support Ukraine
Speaker 2: because that means we've got to support Taiwan.
Speaker 3: I'm like, we'll hold on a second.
Speaker 2: They're actually completely disparate situations with different actors and different histories.
Speaker 3: Same thing here.
Speaker 2: It's like if this had happened in two thousand and five,
Speaker 2: they would have been like, oh, this is a result
Speaker 2: of nine to eleven. They always have to try and
Speaker 2: tie it to something else that's bigger, and going on
Speaker 2: to try and justify even more military conflict in others.
Speaker 2: And it's like, okay, well, what has that policy gotten us?
Speaker 2: I ain't winning, and it certainly ain't. It certainly is
Speaker 2: not you know, peace or prosperity for them or for
Speaker 2: us as a result of this. So look, I'm happy
Speaker 2: that these voices are not prevailing right now in the
Speaker 2: Republican Party, at least right now with the actual voters.
Speaker 3: But this is the actually think in Washington.
Speaker 1: Well, and let's be clear, like there isn't actually any
Speaker 1: dissent on Israel within the Republican Party. Trump was incredibly hawkish,
Speaker 1: did everything that you know, Israel wanted him to do,
Speaker 1: incredibly hawkish towards Iran, took us out of around nuclear deal,
Speaker 1: assassinated costoms, a little money, all of these things. Right,
Speaker 1: So it's not like they're trying to paint this picture
Speaker 1: like there's some descent here when there really isn't the
Speaker 1: only person who was a little bit different on Israel,
Speaker 1: who quickly like backtracked and tried to pretend like he
Speaker 1: wasn't actually different on Israel was Vivik Ramaswami, who made
Speaker 1: some comments about how he would like, in the fullness
Speaker 1: of time, to not be supporting them militarily. Here he
Speaker 1: is with Sean Hannity getting questioned on those comments after
Speaker 1: Nikki Haley specifically attacked him over at Lit's take alism.
Speaker 11: You know, you said aid to Israel, our number one
Speaker 11: ally only democracy in the region, should end in twenty
Speaker 11: twenty eight and that they should be integrated with their neighbors.
Speaker 3: I was an exact quote.
Speaker 12: Well hot to read it.
Speaker 3: That's actually yeah, I can tell you the exact quote.
Speaker 9: What I said is it would be a mark of
Speaker 9: success if we ever got to a point in our
Speaker 9: relationship with Israel, if Israel never needed the United States's aid.
Speaker 3: And Sean, you know how politics is played.
Speaker 9: A lot of the other professional politicians who have been
Speaker 9: threatened by my rise have used that statement to say
Speaker 9: that I would cut off aid to Israel.
Speaker 3: That's not correct.
Speaker 1: So in any case, he's like backtracking, and it just
Speaker 1: shows you how sensitive this issue is, how influential. You know,
Speaker 1: people for whom this is like their number one issue
Speaker 1: are within the Republican Party, also within the Democratic Party.
Speaker 1: You've only very recently had a few voices in the
Speaker 1: Democratic Party that are even a little bit dissident on
Speaker 1: this issue and also want to talk about Palestinian lives
Speaker 1: as well, and the unconscurable blockade and occupation apartheid conditions
Speaker 1: that have been imposed on these people for years and
Speaker 1: years now. But within the Republican Party, you know, there's
Speaker 1: basically only one position that you can take on this issue,
Speaker 1: and it's being extraordinarily hawkish, well.
Speaker 3: A lot of it.
Speaker 2: Actually, it's interesting, you could think about it a little
Speaker 2: bit like the pro life issue. Some of the most
Speaker 2: vehement and like extreme supportes of Israel are Evangelical Christians.
Speaker 2: I'm not a biblical scholar, so I cannot even attempt
Speaker 2: to explain it, but it just has something to do
Speaker 2: with the end of days and why the state of
Speaker 2: Israel needs to exist and Christian Tians. There's also been
Speaker 2: actually a very heavy attempt in Israel by the Israeli
Speaker 2: government to cultivate a lot of these people. They help
Speaker 2: fund a lot of trips back and forth. Yeah, if
Speaker 2: you're ever on a flight to Israel.
Speaker 3: It's funny. Half the people on the plane will be
Speaker 3: Evangelical Christians, the other half will be Jews, and a
Speaker 3: lot of them are coming to visit some of the
Speaker 3: holy sites, and a lot of it is funded by
Speaker 3: both churches, nonprofits, and of these other organizations which have
Speaker 3: not existed in it for a long time. They put
Speaker 3: an immense amount of pressure, an immense amount of pressure
Speaker 3: on GOP lawmakers. You also, I think, have the old
Speaker 3: nine to eleven tie in. It's very much.
Speaker 2: You know, a lot of people like to have black
Speaker 2: and white thinking. It takes a long time to actually
Speaker 2: separate that to think about it, and most people haven't
Speaker 2: been over there. They just look at the news and
Speaker 2: they're like, well, you know, one is allied with our
Speaker 2: enemies and one always has our back. So they're like, okay,
Speaker 2: this is a simple equation. So that's how a lot
Speaker 2: of Americans are going to think about it. I mean,
Speaker 2: I think there's a reason that the entire all opposition
Speaker 2: to Israel is predominantly in the US an elite left project,
Speaker 2: and it's because it comes from the university in academia class.
Speaker 3: Because they have more of an interest.
Speaker 2: Obviously, they have probably more sympathies to like the ideas
Speaker 2: around human rights and all of that, but they have
Speaker 2: more of a like awareness generally of what's going on.
Speaker 1: So I think that's a huge age divide here, that's true.
Speaker 3: Yeah, huge age.
Speaker 1: Divide and the politics on this, I mean that might
Speaker 1: be if you look at the numbers, one of the
Speaker 1: biggest generational gaps on the Democratic parties between older folks
Speaker 1: and younger folks in terms of the prism with which
Speaker 1: they view this conflict. And we were talking, you know,
Speaker 1: I mean, in some ways it feels so depressing, the
Speaker 1: cycle of violence, the you know, just knowledge that there's
Speaker 1: no there's not going to be a simple, easy, straightforward solution.
Speaker 1: There just can't be at this point, after all, all
Speaker 1: of these decades of absolute horror. But you do see
Speaker 1: even in the media coverage, you see, you know, different
Speaker 1: perspectives you never would have seen before, even like the
Speaker 1: New York Times and CNN with voices you never would
Speaker 1: have heard before, you know, actually talking to Palestinians in
Speaker 1: addition to the Israelis, who you know are suffering and
Speaker 1: grieving right now. So you do see some partly This
Speaker 1: is a result directly of Netanyahu becoming very partisan during
Speaker 1: the Obama era, yes, and really throwing in with Republicans
Speaker 1: and actively trying to thwart Obama's re election. And that
Speaker 1: has created a very different political dynamic within the Democratic
Speaker 1: Party than used to exist. And I'm talking not at
Speaker 1: the elite level, where there's still mostly unanimity. Like I said,
Speaker 1: with a few You've got Rashida Telip who is actually
Speaker 1: Palestinian American who is being blocked by the way from
Speaker 1: visiting her gramma in Palestine by the Israeli government. So
Speaker 1: you have a few voice different voices on the Democratic side.
Speaker 1: But there's also it's been an overwhelming campaign to try
Speaker 1: to defeat in primaries anyone who would have a different
Speaker 1: view on how to approach this conflict whatsoever.
Speaker 2: That's a good point. I remember saying it at the time.
Speaker 2: I've said it many times here on the show. Is
Speaker 2: probably the single biggest mistake bebe ever made in terms
Speaker 2: of US political support. He aligned himself with an opposition
Speaker 2: party against the sitting president of the US, which allowed
Speaker 2: the Obama administration to say, look at this man coming
Speaker 2: to my soil to speak out against my policy in
Speaker 2: my Congress, you know, having that dramatically opened the Overton window,
Speaker 2: because when you were allowed to criticize Babe, then you
Speaker 2: were allowed to criticize Israeli policy. That led to some
Speaker 2: There was some moment at the end of the Obama
Speaker 2: administration where they even allowed some UN Security Council resolutions
Speaker 2: to pass that they never would have allowed to happen
Speaker 2: in the past. Even the Biden administration, I mean mostly
Speaker 2: been one hundred percent pro Israel. The Israelis wouldn't say so,
Speaker 2: but not a huge departure, Yeah, from previous policible.
Speaker 1: Even they've had a few there's some friction between, like
Speaker 1: friction between between n Naho and Biden, but it hasn't
Speaker 1: really amounted to different policy. I pulled up the numbers
Speaker 1: just to give people a sense of how this is becoming.
Speaker 1: There's starting to be a more partisan valance to this.
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty three, Gallup asked, in the Middle East situation,
Speaker 1: are your sympathies more with Israelis or more with the Palestinians.
Speaker 1: Obviously this is before the current situation and atrocities that
Speaker 1: were just committed.
Speaker 4: For Democrats. For the first time ever, more.
Speaker 1: People said their sympathies were with Palestinians than Israelis. Forty
Speaker 1: nine percent of Democrats said Palestinians, thirty eight percent said Israelis,
Speaker 1: and thirteen percent said neither are no opinion independence. They
Speaker 1: also increased their level of support with Palestinians, but they
Speaker 1: still overall have more sympathy towards Israelis's forty nine percent
Speaker 1: sympathy towards Israelis, thirty two percent Palestinians, nineteen percent neither,
Speaker 1: both or no opinion. With Republicans very different landscape, seventy
Speaker 1: eight percent say their sympathies live dominantly with Israelis. Only
Speaker 1: eleven percent say they're more sympathetic towards Palestinians.
Speaker 4: So, you know, that is a very new phenomenon.
Speaker 1: If you look back at you look back at like
Speaker 1: twenty ten, you had sixty percent of Democrats saying their
Speaker 1: sympathies were more with Israelis, so in only thirteen percent
Speaker 1: saying that their sympathies were more with Palestinians. So there's
Speaker 1: been a you know, there's been a really dramatic shift
Speaker 1: in terms of the level of the level of I
Speaker 1: guess support for Palestinian statehood and the complexity with the
Speaker 1: which the situation is viewed within the Democratic Party, and
Speaker 1: I do think a lot of that goes back to
Speaker 1: net Yahoo making it very partisan.
Speaker 4: Now we're delighted to be joined by doctor Tree T. Parsi.
Speaker 1: He is executive vice president of the Quincy Institute and
Speaker 1: a long time front of the show. Great to see
Speaker 1: ze our good Caeesar.
Speaker 6: Good to be back with you, guys.
Speaker 1: So we have a lot of questions for you about
Speaker 1: the sort of geopolitical fallout here, the context within which
Speaker 1: these attacks occurred. But first I wanted to ask you
Speaker 1: about this report from the Wall Street Journal. Let's put
Speaker 1: this up on the screen, guys. This is the second
Speaker 1: piece here. They say that Iran helped plot the attack
Speaker 1: on Israel over several weeks. Islamic Revolutionary GUARDCORE gave the
Speaker 1: final go ahead last Monday in Beirut. Now what's really
Speaker 1: interesting here is this is actually according to senior members
Speaker 1: of Hamas and Hezbola. However, US officials made it very
Speaker 1: clear they had not seen any evidence of Tehran's involvement.
Speaker 1: And now you also have Israeli officials being very clear
Speaker 1: in saying they have not seen evidence of Iranian involvement here.
Speaker 1: So I wonder what your reaction is to the story
Speaker 1: and why this is significant and people should care.
Speaker 11: Well, it's very significant because if you take the story
Speaker 11: at face value, it was really pushing the United States
Speaker 11: towards getting involved in a larger war in the region,
Speaker 11: because if the Iranians were involved in that operational sense,
Speaker 11: you would have significant calls on the US side for
Speaker 11: acts against Iran. However, the story in my view is
Speaker 11: not particularly credible. As you mentioned, this is not the
Speaker 11: position shared by the US government. It's also not shared
Speaker 11: by the Israeli government, with the idea of spokesperson coming
Speaker 11: out and saying that they don't see evidence for it,
Speaker 11: which is quite a statement coming from these Raelis who
Speaker 11: otherwise are quite keen on pointing out Iran's involvement in
Speaker 11: various things. But also because I think that the story
Speaker 11: itself I find really difficult to digest. So for instance,
Speaker 11: they say that there's been biweekly meetings since August in Beirut,
Speaker 11: which is a place room in which the Israelis have
Speaker 11: excellent intelligence, of course, between senior leaders of Hamas Islamic Jihad,
Speaker 11: Hezbolah and Yvan, including on two occasions, the Ivanian foreign
Speaker 11: minister attending. I mean, these are the very same people
Speaker 11: the Israeli intelligence would keep a very very close eye on.
Speaker 11: How could they have bi weekly meetings since August about
Speaker 11: this issue plan and these Raelies never finding out It
Speaker 11: just sounds to me quite difficult to believe. So I
Speaker 11: think there's a lot of elements of this that raises
Speaker 11: question marks as to the accuracy of this story.
Speaker 6: On top of that, the.
Speaker 11: Former boss of one of the reporters byline in that
Speaker 11: story has come out and said that he fired her
Speaker 11: from her earlier position in Reuters for inventing stories. So
Speaker 11: I think we should deal it with a bit of
Speaker 11: grain of salt and really investigate further. Having said that,
Speaker 11: let me also say this. I think it is quite
Speaker 11: clear that the Iranians have been involved in army and
Speaker 11: training hamas. That is different from them being involved operationally
Speaker 11: in this attack green lighting attack. Those are very very
Speaker 11: different things. Moreover, we should also be clear that Tehran
Speaker 11: probably wants the world to believe that they had a
Speaker 11: bigger role in this than what they actually did, because
Speaker 11: from their perspective, this gives them credibility amongst the Arab
Speaker 11: street in the vision, which is their audience. Their audience
Speaker 11: is not Europe or the United States. So even when
Speaker 11: they have not been involved in things, they like the
Speaker 11: idea that the world thinks they were involved because it
Speaker 11: gives them an edge in their competition with Saudi Arabia
Speaker 11: and other governments in the region by them claiming to
Speaker 11: stand and raising the Palestinian flag.
Speaker 3: Wow, very important context, I think on that story.
Speaker 2: We also, though, have seen elements of the former US
Speaker 2: officials and others beginning to blame Iran for the attack,
Speaker 2: possibly setting up for possible US involvement. Here's the former
Speaker 2: Director of National Intelligence saying that, and I want to
Speaker 2: get your reaction.
Speaker 12: My reaction, Kayley, is as it has been from day one.
Speaker 12: Those words ring hollow from the Biden administration. They're disingenuous
Speaker 12: at best. Look, it's not even just this six billion
Speaker 12: dollars which which clearly is going to further enrich Iran.
Speaker 12: It's close sort of sixty billion dollars if you look
Speaker 12: at what the Biden administration has done to help this
Speaker 12: Islamic terrorist regime in Iran by stop enforcing sanctions, by
Speaker 12: lifting restrictions, by allowing Iranian oil to increase by six
Speaker 12: hundred and fifty percent over the last two years, from
Speaker 12: four hundred thousand barrels of oil a day to three
Speaker 12: million barrels of oil a day. All of this has
Speaker 12: strengthened an Iranian regime that you know, Kayley, we left
Speaker 12: weaker and poorer than it had been in the last
Speaker 12: twenty years, and instead they've largely been funded by the
Speaker 12: Biden Administration's actions and allowing them to strengthen their position
Speaker 12: and to create this kind of mayhem. I don't think
Speaker 12: it's unfair Kaylee, to say that, you know, Iran funded
Speaker 12: Hamas here, but the Biden administration helped fund Iran.
Speaker 2: This is the basically coalescing position of a lot of
Speaker 2: the repub Party. So I'm curious, just back from fiction,
Speaker 2: what do you make of that.
Speaker 6: Well, there's quite a lot of fiction there.
Speaker 11: But I think, first of all, the larger context here
Speaker 11: is that, unfortunately, these are really serious issues and in
Speaker 11: Washington right now, we're turning everything into political football.
Speaker 6: This is an attempt to blame everything on the Biden administration.
Speaker 11: You guys know me. I've been on the show many times.
Speaker 11: I have plenty of critiques of the Biden administration and
Speaker 11: I do so today as well, in part of handling
Speaker 11: this and trying to push for a Saudi U Israelian
Speaker 11: normalization deal, which I think, frankly has contributed to some
Speaker 11: of the violence that we're seeing right now. But this
Speaker 11: is just filled with a lot of fiction. First of all,
Speaker 11: the six billion dollars sits in a bank in Kutar.
Speaker 11: Essentially the United States decide what type of food and
Speaker 11: medicine the Audians can buy. It's actually a very humiliating
Speaker 11: deal in the sense that the Aunians cannot even spend
Speaker 11: their money as they want to, but they have to
Speaker 11: get approval from the United States to do so.
Speaker 6: In terms of three.
Speaker 11: Million barrels of oily day, I've never heard that number.
Speaker 11: I've heard something up to two. And it's absolutely true
Speaker 11: that as a result of an effort to de escalate,
Speaker 11: the Biden administration I don't think has been implementing some
Speaker 11: of Trump's sanctions as harshly as Trump was. But it's
Speaker 11: also in the context of the Ukraine War, in which
Speaker 11: pursuing the implementation of that would further increase oil prices
Speaker 11: at a time when the Biden administration actually has an
Speaker 11: interest and lowering the old prices because of the impact
Speaker 11: you will have on the US economy. And this is
Speaker 11: one of those things that I think the Trump administration
Speaker 11: didn't take into account in the same way because it
Speaker 11: was partly in a different geopolitical context. The idea then
Speaker 11: to go all the way of saying that, you know,
Speaker 11: the Biden administration is funding Iran, which then is funding
Speaker 11: Hamas is really a masterful way of connecting dots that
Speaker 11: doesn't exist in order to score a political point here
Speaker 11: in Washington, but that unfortunately Kahan devis stating geopolitical effects
Speaker 11: not only in the region but for the United States itself,
Speaker 11: because this is these kind of narratives that can push
Speaker 11: the United States wrongfully into a conflict that the US
Speaker 11: should not be involved in.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and we've already seen Dean Phillips, who's a Democratic congressman,
Speaker 1: effectively calling for war with Iron and Lindsay Graham re
Speaker 1: upping his practical constant desire for war with Iran.
Speaker 4: So these are very real concerns right now.
Speaker 1: And doctor Parci, part of why we wanted to have
Speaker 1: you on is because even when the Abraham Accords were
Speaker 1: you know, very popular and they had a lot of
Speaker 1: attraction with it Washington, DC. You were raising some alarms
Speaker 1: about what they left out and some of the shortcomings
Speaker 1: of them. And now, as you alluded to, there's also
Speaker 1: this attempt from the Biden administration. Abraham Accords were under
Speaker 1: the Trump administration. Under the Biden administration, you now have
Speaker 1: a similarly veined attempt to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia
Speaker 1: and Israel that effectively ignored and invisibilized what was going
Speaker 1: on here in Palestine. Can you take us through those
Speaker 1: pieces and why you said that the Saudi normalization in
Speaker 1: particular may have contributed to the timing of these attacks.
Speaker 6: Absolutely so.
Speaker 11: As you remember, I was on the show and I
Speaker 11: wrote about this when the Abram Court first came out,
Speaker 11: and was this belief that this is some sort of
Speaker 11: a peace deal, even though Sad the UAE in Israel
Speaker 11: had never been at war. That very core of this
Speaker 11: agreement was the belief that the Palestinian issue no longer
Speaker 11: mattered and that one could then devise a deal that
Speaker 11: would move beyond the Palestinian issue. This is specific terminology
Speaker 11: that was used by Jarrett Kushner at the time, and
Speaker 11: this was partly born out of the reality that after
Speaker 11: the Arab Spring, the Palestinian issue wasn't as potent of
Speaker 11: a force in the Arab world as it had been
Speaker 11: earlier prior to the Arab Spring, but to believe that
Speaker 11: that was a permanent state and the permanent shift was
Speaker 11: a huge mistake. And by Asen moving forward with the
Speaker 11: Europeans forgetting the Palestinians, the United States long having forgotten
Speaker 11: the Palestinians, and now some Arab countries forgetting the Palatians,
Speaker 11: and the belief was created that the world had forgotten
Speaker 11: the Palestinians, but there was one element that had not
Speaker 11: forgotten the Palestinians.
Speaker 6: That was the Palestinians.
Speaker 11: They distill believed themselves they still were suffering on their occupation,
Speaker 11: they were still suffering from a tremendous and increasingly intensified repression,
Speaker 11: and leaving them with that in that situation in which
Speaker 11: essentially a narrative was created amongst the Palestinians that negotiations
Speaker 11: and peace process had actually brought them to a worse
Speaker 11: position over the course of the last thirty years, just
Speaker 11: objectively dramatically increased the likelihood that at some point their
Speaker 11: struggle would shift towards a much much more militant and
Speaker 11: violent resistance than what we had seen during the Oslo process.
Speaker 11: This is not to condone it, this is not to
Speaker 11: justify it. This is just to say this is a reality.
Speaker 11: Some of us called it out before this happened, and
Speaker 11: I think it's a reminder to us, particularly in the
Speaker 11: context of how the narrative on Ukraine has developed in
Speaker 11: the United States, that if there is this belief that,
Speaker 11: of course the Ukrainians have to have agency, etc. To
Speaker 11: at the same time deprive the Palestinians of any of
Speaker 11: such agency, then we should not be surprised if they
Speaker 11: then try to manifest that agency in a completely different way. Again,
Speaker 11: this is not to justify it. So this is part
Speaker 11: of the reason why a lot of people in the
Speaker 11: region as well as elsewhere, we're very concerned about this
Speaker 11: because essentially it sought to uninvent or it's not the
Speaker 11: wrong way word. Essentially, it sought to create a scenario
Speaker 11: in which the Palestinians were permanently irrelevant, and that was
Speaker 11: a dramatically dangerous bet that is now backfiring in a
Speaker 11: horrific way.
Speaker 2: My last thing for you, sir, is about the idea
Speaker 2: of possibility that in Israel where they're very afraid of
Speaker 2: a two front war of Hezbola and then potential embroilment
Speaker 2: with Iran. How should people what context can you get
Speaker 2: with them about what that might look like and what
Speaker 2: the trigger points would be for a broader conflict that
Speaker 2: we would look like outside of the Gaza strip.
Speaker 11: I think, first of all, as an absolutely to the
Speaker 11: point question, it's a very important question. I think it's
Speaker 11: part of the reason why the Israelis themselves are not
Speaker 11: going out there and saying that they don't see Iran's
Speaker 11: operational involvement in this, because if they were to go
Speaker 11: out and say that and incentivize Hisbola to actually get
Speaker 11: into the fight, then Israel would be facing a two
Speaker 11: front war. Moreover, the fact that Hebela has not been
Speaker 11: part of this war so far, it's further indication that
Speaker 11: this probably was not something that the Iranians were involved
Speaker 11: in designing, because if they wanted to do something to
Speaker 11: really go after these Raelis, they would probably have done
Speaker 11: it in a manner that was more detrimental to the
Speaker 11: Israelis by creating that two front war. But if that
Speaker 11: were to happen, it would be stating situation for the
Speaker 11: israelis both hamas and has both our much better armed.
Speaker 11: There's been this false belief that Israel's technological superiority create
Speaker 11: a permanent imbalance between the two sides, and as a result,
Speaker 11: that they simply could manage permanent occupation because these Palestinians
Speaker 11: could not do anything about it. We've now seen that
Speaker 11: the Palaestinis have managed to catch up technologically and really
Speaker 11: surprised not just the Israeli military but also the Israeli
Speaker 11: intelligence services. So in that context, this is something that
Speaker 11: the Israelis should be very worried about.
Speaker 1: Well, doctor Parsi, it is always so great to have
Speaker 1: all of your thoughts and well considered commentary here as
Speaker 1: we sort through a very complex situation.
Speaker 4: Thank you so much for joining us as always.
Speaker 6: Thank you, sir, thank you so much for having me
Speaker 6: appreciate it.
Speaker 1: Ja.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I guess the last thing I will
Speaker 2: say is I'm just I think we should all gird
Speaker 2: ourselves for this is going to be a long conflict.
Speaker 2: I think unfortunately a lot of people are going to die.
Speaker 2: I think things will be less safe. We're going to
Speaker 2: do our best to sift through a lot of this information.
Speaker 2: It's very very difficult. We're not on the ground in Israel.
Speaker 2: Even those who are on the ground, we don't know
Speaker 2: what they're able to show us. You know, they can
Speaker 2: only give us a small picture. We're doing our best
Speaker 2: to verify all of the information, and you know, I
Speaker 2: just hope that something can actually come, something can possibly
Speaker 2: prevent a tremendous loss of life.
Speaker 3: I've got personal friends.
Speaker 2: One of my best friends who was in high school
Speaker 2: was Palaestinium, was one of those people who wouldn't even
Speaker 2: say the name Israel. One of my childhood best friends
Speaker 2: is Israeli currently you know who served in the IDF.
Speaker 3: I've known some people on a human.
Speaker 2: Level on both sides of this, which it's both difficult,
Speaker 2: but I also I think it was a blessing to
Speaker 2: be able to look at it, especially when stuff like
Speaker 2: this happens, and to try and be able to help
Speaker 2: everybody sort through all of this.
Speaker 3: I know it's very, very difficult.
Speaker 2: I also know there's a lot of people out there
Speaker 2: for this is such an emotional issue, and look, we're
Speaker 2: doing our best. We're just that's all we can tell you.
Speaker 2: We are absolutely trying to sift through all of this.
Speaker 2: Give you our perspective. None of this is from a
Speaker 2: place of malice.
Speaker 3: And if you take offense, that's okay, because we're still
Speaker 3: going to be I will still be here the next day. Yeah.
Speaker 1: If there is one thing I could say, it's to
Speaker 1: just implore people to value all life equally, to have
Speaker 1: as much Karen concern for Palestinian life as we see
Speaker 1: whatever the Israeli response has been, which we're already getting
Speaker 1: a taste of with this complete siege, with calling Palestinians animals,
Speaker 1: to have as much Karen concern for innocent Palestinian life
Speaker 1: as you do for innocent Israeli life. And there was
Speaker 1: a quote, this was actually surprisingly in the New York Times,
Speaker 1: from a woman who's a Palestinian lawyer who lives in Israel,
Speaker 1: and she said, if there's one lesson of this is
Speaker 1: not that this was a security failure. It was a
Speaker 1: failure on the part of the world to address the conflict.
Speaker 1: Every day is violent, We wake up to violence, we
Speaker 1: go to bed, to violence against Palestinians. Again, nothing justifies
Speaker 1: the slaughter of innocent civilians, including women and children, not
Speaker 1: when it's done by Hamas and not when it is
Speaker 1: done by Israel. But you will ever have true peace
Speaker 1: and security so long as you have such oppression, and
Speaker 1: so long as you are trying to keep millions of
Speaker 1: people locked in a cage effectively in an open air prison,
Speaker 1: and their dreams and hopes and aspirations crushed. You have
Speaker 1: the biggest military in the world, the most intrusive surveillance
Speaker 1: state in the world. You have the biggest, baddest friends
Speaker 1: in the United States and the world. But there is
Speaker 1: no substitute for a real, lasting, and just peace. And
Speaker 1: I hope that in some way we can move towards
Speaker 1: those ends eventually.
Speaker 3: I hope so too.
Speaker 2: We're going to keep everybody updated all throughout the week.
Speaker 2: We can expect more things like this. We're going to
Speaker 2: do our best, and we'll see you all tomorrow.