1
00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:05,040
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Podcast.

2
00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,920
Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

3
00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:16,599
Speaker 2: people over for a second.

4
00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:31,680
Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by bet MGM.

5
00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:34,360
Speaker 1: I'm your host today, Brendan Glass Sheen back with Billy

6
00:00:34,400 --> 00:00:37,640
Speaker 1: Ward and Shanzillo. That means it's time for best bets

7
00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:41,760
Speaker 1: around the UFC card. This weekend, we head to Rio

8
00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:43,200
Speaker 1: UFC three to Ozho one.

9
00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:45,360
Speaker 3: We've got a lot to get to here.

10
00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:49,839
Speaker 1: Prelims start at six on the ESPN Plus network.

11
00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:51,080
Speaker 3: You've got the prelims.

12
00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:54,440
Speaker 1: Another round of prelims at eight o'clock on ESPN ESPN

13
00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:56,880
Speaker 1: Plus and the main card is on pay per view.

14
00:00:57,640 --> 00:00:59,480
Speaker 3: We will begin with the main event.

15
00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:04,440
Speaker 1: Alaha Andre Pantosia and Steve Eerseg is our main event

16
00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:06,920
Speaker 1: that we're going to start with on the podcast today,

17
00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:11,200
Speaker 1: the flyweight title fight Seanzillo. Let's leave with the main

18
00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:16,959
Speaker 1: event and discuss Pantosia, why he is a shorter favorite.

19
00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:19,560
Speaker 1: I feel against ear Seg. I know he's got the

20
00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:22,880
Speaker 1: age discrepancy, but let's dive into the logistics of the

21
00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:24,319
Speaker 1: fight and how you guys want to go.

22
00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:24,920
Speaker 3: About betting it.

23
00:01:25,480 --> 00:01:27,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I have to talk about the age first, so

24
00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:30,319
Speaker 4: er Seg is seven years younger, and as we regularly

25
00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:32,640
Speaker 4: talk about, once you get past the seven year age

26
00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:36,600
Speaker 4: gap between YOUC opponents, the younger fighter wins sixty five

27
00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:39,080
Speaker 4: percent of the time at average odds closer to fifty

28
00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:41,720
Speaker 4: four percent, so they tend to be undervalued by about

29
00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:45,759
Speaker 4: eleven percent in the betting markets. And Pantosia is thirty

30
00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:48,960
Speaker 4: four in a division where the average age is thirty

31
00:01:49,440 --> 00:01:53,240
Speaker 4: and that physical athletic cliff can come at any minute.

32
00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:54,200
Speaker 5: We don't know if it's going.

33
00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:56,120
Speaker 4: To come in this fight or his next fight or

34
00:01:56,160 --> 00:01:58,480
Speaker 4: three fights down the line, but it will come eventually

35
00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:01,000
Speaker 4: as long as he keeps fighting in the UFC. It's

36
00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:03,760
Speaker 4: just very difficult to keep cutting to one hundred and

37
00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:07,880
Speaker 4: twenty five pounds or maintain that speed at one hundred

38
00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:10,960
Speaker 4: and twenty five pounds, and fractional differences in speed make

39
00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:12,119
Speaker 4: a huge differential.

40
00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:13,600
Speaker 5: Erseg is going to.

41
00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:16,280
Speaker 4: Be the slightly taller man, the slightly longer man, and

42
00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:17,960
Speaker 4: I think that's going to matter a lot in terms

43
00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:19,920
Speaker 4: of a jabs and a straight punching. He is the

44
00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:22,720
Speaker 4: better boxer in this matchup. I think Pantosia is the

45
00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:26,200
Speaker 4: better overall MMA fighter. He is all the grappling upside

46
00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:28,920
Speaker 4: in this fight. We also haven't seen Erseg test it

47
00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:32,040
Speaker 4: over five rounds. He's taking a significant step up in

48
00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:36,120
Speaker 4: competition here. We also really haven't seen him defending back

49
00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:40,079
Speaker 4: takes like Pantosia prefers to get to. It's his best position,

50
00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:43,000
Speaker 4: position where he likes to dominate from and rest a

51
00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:45,120
Speaker 4: little bit when he's getting tired because he doesn't have

52
00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:48,440
Speaker 4: the best cardio, but he's great at fighting through exhaustion,

53
00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:50,600
Speaker 4: and one of the ways he does that is find

54
00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:53,800
Speaker 4: his opponents back and hold control for extended periods of

55
00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:56,240
Speaker 4: time unless he can choke them out. So there's a

56
00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:59,080
Speaker 4: chance in this fight that Pantosia just comes out like

57
00:02:59,160 --> 00:03:02,520
Speaker 4: he did against Alex Perez and submits Erseg immediately. We

58
00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:05,920
Speaker 4: really haven't seen Erseg against this level of grappler, But

59
00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:08,640
Speaker 4: if he doesn't and this fight extends, I think it

60
00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:11,440
Speaker 4: plays out close to fifty to fifty for at least

61
00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:13,679
Speaker 4: the verse three rounds. I think Erseg's going to land

62
00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:16,720
Speaker 4: more head punches with scores well with judges. I think

63
00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:18,679
Speaker 4: Pantosa is going to get the better of the grappling

64
00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:21,959
Speaker 4: and keep himself relatively fresh, But I think in the

65
00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:24,200
Speaker 4: later rounds is where it gets really interesting and where

66
00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:27,080
Speaker 4: I really have no idea what's going to happen, because,

67
00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:29,919
Speaker 4: as I said, Pantosia gets very tired, has very bad

68
00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:33,200
Speaker 4: body language latent fights, relies on that grappling to sort

69
00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:35,640
Speaker 4: of grind his way to the end once it gets there.

70
00:03:35,840 --> 00:03:38,360
Speaker 4: We've never seen Erseg pass the fifteen minute mark, so

71
00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:42,040
Speaker 4: complete unknown with regards to his cardio in a longerbout,

72
00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:45,040
Speaker 4: generally speaking, I tend to bet against it. But Steve

73
00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:48,040
Speaker 4: Erseg is very calm in the octagon. He doesn't waste

74
00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:50,800
Speaker 4: any energy. He doesn't waste any movement, even when he's

75
00:03:50,840 --> 00:03:52,800
Speaker 4: been wobbled in the past, when he's been taken down

76
00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:56,720
Speaker 4: in the past, he's not wasting energy going crazy. Doesn't

77
00:03:56,920 --> 00:04:00,160
Speaker 4: fight a particularly high pace to where I think he

78
00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:03,400
Speaker 4: would exhaust himself. So I actually give Erseg a decent

79
00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:06,440
Speaker 4: chance of surviving in the later rounds. I'm probably if

80
00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:08,240
Speaker 4: I'm going to bet this fight, I'm probably going to

81
00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:11,360
Speaker 4: bet Erseg pre fight and then maybe look for a

82
00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:15,280
Speaker 4: live entry on Pantosia after rounds two or rounds three

83
00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:18,040
Speaker 4: if he's at plus money. If Ersag is early success.

84
00:04:18,320 --> 00:04:20,359
Speaker 4: I just might want plus money on both sides of

85
00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:22,479
Speaker 4: his fight if it does go later, because I'm not

86
00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:24,560
Speaker 4: sure what erss Cardio is going to look like, so

87
00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:27,200
Speaker 4: I lean Erzeg. It's not a particularly strong lean, but

88
00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:29,520
Speaker 4: if I'm betting at pre fight, I would lean Erzeg

89
00:04:29,520 --> 00:04:31,440
Speaker 4: and then I probably looked to live at Pantosia.

90
00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:33,360
Speaker 5: After rounds two or three.

91
00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:37,799
Speaker 1: Pantosia Billy down to minus one eighty five, slightly shorter

92
00:04:37,880 --> 00:04:41,200
Speaker 1: from earlier in the week, around minus one ninety. You

93
00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:44,560
Speaker 1: actually think Pantosia is undervalued based on the price from

94
00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:48,440
Speaker 1: earlier in the week and your Action network, YOUFC luck ratings.

95
00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:51,240
Speaker 3: Do you still feel the same way I do?

96
00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:54,000
Speaker 6: And you know, before I jump into my angle on it,

97
00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:55,880
Speaker 6: I don't think the age is that big of a deal.

98
00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:59,599
Speaker 6: Pantosia turned thirty four two weeks ago and Ersag's turning

99
00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:01,680
Speaker 6: twenty nine this summer, so it's really like a five

100
00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:03,960
Speaker 6: year and a few months age gap. It's not huge.

101
00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:06,200
Speaker 6: You know, we talk about like the magic thirty five

102
00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:08,680
Speaker 6: year old Cliff for these lighter weight classes. He still

103
00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:10,640
Speaker 6: got a year. I still you know, in his last

104
00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:13,920
Speaker 6: fight he looked great didn't look old yet it's coming.

105
00:05:13,960 --> 00:05:16,159
Speaker 6: Sean's one hundred percent right with that. You can't say

106
00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:17,960
Speaker 6: for sure when it's going to be. I would bet

107
00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:20,720
Speaker 6: he's got a couple more still in his prime left

108
00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:23,159
Speaker 6: in him. Of course, we don't know. But the big

109
00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:25,240
Speaker 6: thing for me is it's only the fourth UFC fight

110
00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:28,039
Speaker 6: for Ersag hasn't fought anyone in the top ten. He's

111
00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:30,080
Speaker 6: looked great, but yeah, a lot of people can look

112
00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:34,000
Speaker 6: great against lower level opponents. And you know, the eleventh

113
00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:37,280
Speaker 6: through fifteenth guy at flyweight that's not nearly as deep

114
00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:40,039
Speaker 6: of a division as lightweight or welterweight, So there's a

115
00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:42,880
Speaker 6: pretty big skill gap between the top you know, two

116
00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:46,480
Speaker 6: to five guys and you know number fifteen at flyweight,

117
00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:48,520
Speaker 6: where you might not say that at lightweight or one

118
00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:51,000
Speaker 6: forty five or whatever. The other thing for me, though,

119
00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:54,320
Speaker 6: and probably the biggest factor, Ers's last fight was less

120
00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:57,359
Speaker 6: than two months ago, so I don't know, you know

121
00:05:57,360 --> 00:05:59,279
Speaker 6: how healthy he came out of that, picked up a finish,

122
00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:01,200
Speaker 6: didn't look like he took much damage. You got to

123
00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:03,080
Speaker 6: imagine he takes at least a week off after that

124
00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:07,679
Speaker 6: fight to recover, you know, come back from the weight cut.

125
00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:10,359
Speaker 6: Travel back home to Australia all that stuff. That's a

126
00:06:10,360 --> 00:06:12,720
Speaker 6: pretty short camp when you're fighting a guy like Pantosia,

127
00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:16,640
Speaker 6: because Pantojia's grappling is just such a skill that you

128
00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:18,280
Speaker 6: have to worry about, and you have to decide as

129
00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:20,560
Speaker 6: a team, are we going to try to defend takedowns.

130
00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:22,320
Speaker 6: Are we gonna work just get ups, or we're gonna

131
00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:24,000
Speaker 6: work staying safe on the ground and trying to win

132
00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:26,400
Speaker 6: while we're on the feet. There's a lot that goes

133
00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:29,039
Speaker 6: into that, and with a full camp, I could see

134
00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:30,880
Speaker 6: Ursag solving that puzzle.

135
00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:32,760
Speaker 7: I don't like it given the short notice.

136
00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:35,120
Speaker 6: There's some guys that I don't really care about that,

137
00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:38,320
Speaker 6: you know, the Islams of the world, the Habib's, the Hamzat,

138
00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:40,240
Speaker 6: They're doing the same thing in every fight, no matter

139
00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:42,560
Speaker 6: who the opponent is. I don't think that's the case

140
00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:46,239
Speaker 6: here because Erseg primarily a boxer, but you know, fairly

141
00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:49,240
Speaker 6: well rounded overall, and you know, true mixed martial artist,

142
00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:51,279
Speaker 6: and he has to just watch out for that one

143
00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:54,400
Speaker 6: skill of Pantosia that's so dominant. I don't think he's

144
00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:56,640
Speaker 6: had the time to really build a game plan around that,

145
00:06:57,040 --> 00:06:59,440
Speaker 6: and plan that, So that's the biggest factor for me.

146
00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:01,840
Speaker 6: I would honestly, if you don't want to pay the

147
00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:03,880
Speaker 6: juice on the minus one to eighty five, I kind

148
00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:05,720
Speaker 6: of like the point spread where you can get that

149
00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:08,120
Speaker 6: bat at minus five and a half. I like those

150
00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:10,040
Speaker 6: in the five round fights because you don't need to

151
00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:12,440
Speaker 6: win every round. You can go four rounds to one

152
00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:15,560
Speaker 6: and still pay off that prop. And then obviously a finish,

153
00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:19,480
Speaker 6: late finish wouldn't surprise me for Pantosia. To Sean's point,

154
00:07:19,480 --> 00:07:21,000
Speaker 6: I don't think Erseg's going to be a guy that

155
00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:24,760
Speaker 6: especially struggles with cardio. But I'm gonna trust the guy

156
00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:26,880
Speaker 6: that we've seen do well down in this stretch, whether

157
00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:29,400
Speaker 6: his body language look good or not. It's just one's

158
00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:32,440
Speaker 6: a known known and one's an unknown unknown. So I'm

159
00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:34,920
Speaker 6: a little bit worried about his five round experience, not

160
00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:36,680
Speaker 6: horribly so in the lighter weight class.

161
00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:38,920
Speaker 7: So I could also see a late stoppage for Pantosia.

162
00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:41,520
Speaker 4: Kind of seems like the UFC built this card around

163
00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:45,000
Speaker 4: Pantosia too, Like Erseg has no star power or whatsoever,

164
00:07:45,080 --> 00:07:48,160
Speaker 4: no social media prowess whatsoever. It's not like they're trying

165
00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:50,560
Speaker 4: to turn him into a star, whereas with Eliot Taporia

166
00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:52,960
Speaker 4: he was such a massive star in Europe. It seemed

167
00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:55,080
Speaker 4: like he was almost the a side of that fight

168
00:07:55,120 --> 00:07:57,920
Speaker 4: against Volkanovski. But to me Erseg's almost being brought in

169
00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:00,840
Speaker 4: here to Brazil as like a sacrifice for a Pantosia.

170
00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:03,040
Speaker 4: You know, this guy who isn't tested over five rounds,

171
00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:05,040
Speaker 4: He's taking such a big step up in competition. I

172
00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:07,280
Speaker 4: think he could be competitive. I think this fight maybe

173
00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:10,240
Speaker 4: even goes over. I'm not interested in betting the total

174
00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:12,880
Speaker 4: because I think there's a chance that Pantosa just submits

175
00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:14,840
Speaker 4: him immediately. But if he doesn't, I think this plays

176
00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:17,760
Speaker 4: out pretty competitively. And yeah, the cardio is just such

177
00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:20,440
Speaker 4: an unknown angle for the final two rounds that, because

178
00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:22,360
Speaker 4: we've seen it from Pantosia, I kind of have to

179
00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:25,280
Speaker 4: favor him there. But I think will be okay. But

180
00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:27,400
Speaker 4: that's you know, that's where i'd attack. The live angle

181
00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:31,000
Speaker 4: is seeing how Ersex looking physically as we get towards

182
00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:33,160
Speaker 4: the end of that second round, third round, and how

183
00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:35,120
Speaker 4: he's managing his gas tank, and also the flow of

184
00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:35,440
Speaker 4: the fight.

185
00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:37,960
Speaker 5: You know, how does Pantoja look too? Well?

186
00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:40,400
Speaker 6: Yeah, I me the promotion needed one of their two

187
00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:42,439
Speaker 6: Brazilian champions on this card if they're going to go

188
00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:44,640
Speaker 6: to Rio, and the other one just fought at UFC

189
00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:46,120
Speaker 6: three hundred, so it's kind of like we got to

190
00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:48,839
Speaker 6: get Pantoja fight. I think the rumors out there is

191
00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:51,000
Speaker 6: that they tried to get Mohamed Makaiev to step in.

192
00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:54,000
Speaker 6: Would have been I think, you know, a bigger fight

193
00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:56,000
Speaker 6: just in terms of name recognition. Machai is a little

194
00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:58,280
Speaker 6: bit longer resume, but he fought on the same card

195
00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:01,000
Speaker 6: er sick Dad, and perhaps why Lee didn't want to

196
00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:04,480
Speaker 6: take the fight on the quick turnaround, where Ers also

197
00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:07,400
Speaker 6: perhaps wisely realized that this might be the only opportunity

198
00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:08,160
Speaker 6: he gets.

199
00:09:09,040 --> 00:09:09,840
Speaker 3: Okay, very good.

200
00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:14,439
Speaker 1: So Zarrillo, you're leaning towards a live angle potentially and Billy.

201
00:09:14,640 --> 00:09:17,360
Speaker 4: Erseg pre fight and then Pantosia alive. Yeah, but erseg

202
00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:19,880
Speaker 4: small prefight, not like a normal bat size, like probably

203
00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:22,160
Speaker 4: you know, a quarter unit or something, and then probably

204
00:09:22,160 --> 00:09:23,880
Speaker 4: trying to get the same on Pantosia and get plus

205
00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:24,640
Speaker 4: money both sides.

206
00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:28,880
Speaker 1: Okay, excellent, Let's go to the fight of the night

207
00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:33,360
Speaker 1: in bantamweight. We've got a matchup here between Jonathan Martinez

208
00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:37,240
Speaker 1: and Jose Aldo. Looking at the line all though plus

209
00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:41,640
Speaker 1: one twenty Martinez around minus one forty. Your assessment here

210
00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:43,720
Speaker 1: is zerrilla of the fight and how you'd like to

211
00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:44,839
Speaker 1: approach betting this one.

212
00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:47,680
Speaker 4: So I'm worried that Aldo is a little bit public

213
00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:49,679
Speaker 4: this week, not only in terms of the fact that

214
00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:51,679
Speaker 4: people are picking him at about a fifty percent rate

215
00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:54,000
Speaker 4: and has implied odds they are closer to forty two percent,

216
00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:57,560
Speaker 4: but also he's eight years older than Jonathan Martinez coming

217
00:09:57,640 --> 00:09:59,920
Speaker 4: back to defend his crown as the King of Rio

218
00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:03,760
Speaker 4: and the you know, as I just mentioned, with AERSC

219
00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:07,560
Speaker 4: fight lower weight class, big age differential, Martinez is probably

220
00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:10,240
Speaker 4: undervalued based off of that factor, on top of the

221
00:10:10,280 --> 00:10:12,480
Speaker 4: fact that seems like Aldo is a public side this

222
00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:18,160
Speaker 4: week showing declining athleticism smaller division, but he's the better

223
00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:20,439
Speaker 4: boxer in this matchup, and he defends kicks really well.

224
00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:23,760
Speaker 4: He's very good at checking kicks, so that's Martinez's main weapon.

225
00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:25,920
Speaker 4: He throws kicks to all three levels, but he prefers

226
00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:30,439
Speaker 4: the leg kicks, and although is a really good anti grappler,

227
00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:33,040
Speaker 4: Martinez probably isn't going to have grappling success here, so

228
00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:35,640
Speaker 4: this probably plays out as a close and competitive striking

229
00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:38,640
Speaker 4: fight where all those landing the better strikes or landing

230
00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:42,640
Speaker 4: the better head strikes and has the crowd in his favor.

231
00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:44,959
Speaker 4: Martinez made more volume all those is probably going to

232
00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:47,440
Speaker 4: have a little bit more pop in his punches, So

233
00:10:47,960 --> 00:10:50,120
Speaker 4: I think all those live here, despite the fact that

234
00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:53,760
Speaker 4: he seems so public and seems like, you know, the

235
00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:57,360
Speaker 4: obvious fan favorite pick this week, but at plus one

236
00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:00,280
Speaker 4: point forty is where I'd probably enter. I also don't

237
00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:03,080
Speaker 4: mind him refight it plus two hundred. By decision, I

238
00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:05,600
Speaker 4: think this maybe goes all fifteen minutes. Billy is a

239
00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:08,920
Speaker 4: different angle concerning the total. But if it does go

240
00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:11,439
Speaker 4: fifteen minutes, I think it'll be close and competitive, and

241
00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:13,760
Speaker 4: I think although we'll have the home judges and the

242
00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:16,760
Speaker 4: home crowd on his side, and I don't see Martinez

243
00:11:16,760 --> 00:11:20,679
Speaker 4: pulling away significantly with the volume to counteract aut of

244
00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:22,560
Speaker 4: those big moments. So I lean al though lean out

245
00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:25,560
Speaker 4: though by decision probably want plus one forty on the

246
00:11:25,559 --> 00:11:28,920
Speaker 4: money line, may even consider his decision only bet. I

247
00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:30,960
Speaker 4: think he was sitting plus money there. I'm curious what

248
00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:34,880
Speaker 4: Billy thinks because he's going against the decision here, but

249
00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:37,760
Speaker 4: I'm curious about what Billy thinks regarding the decision only

250
00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:39,439
Speaker 4: market taking all the plus one ten.

251
00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:40,160
Speaker 7: Yeah.

252
00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:42,480
Speaker 6: I actually I do like that angle on it on

253
00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:46,280
Speaker 6: although I will say it seems like in recent years

254
00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:48,920
Speaker 6: the UFC or the Athletic Commissions or whatever has done

255
00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:51,880
Speaker 6: a better job of getting not just hometown judges who

256
00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:54,559
Speaker 6: are instantly going to decide based on who the more

257
00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:55,640
Speaker 6: Brazilian fighter.

258
00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:57,280
Speaker 7: Is as the first scorn criteria.

259
00:11:57,360 --> 00:11:59,520
Speaker 6: So that's not we're not getting that like Freebee like

260
00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:01,440
Speaker 6: we used to five six years ago when they went

261
00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:03,920
Speaker 6: to Brazil or London or whatever where it's like, if

262
00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:05,559
Speaker 6: it goes to the judges, it doesn't matter what the

263
00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:07,680
Speaker 6: fight look like. We know what's going to happen. I

264
00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:09,240
Speaker 6: do like that angle, though. If I was going to

265
00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:10,800
Speaker 6: bet the Aldo side, I think that's the way I

266
00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:13,960
Speaker 6: do it. I'm leaning towards Martinez. You know, the seven

267
00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:16,760
Speaker 6: year age gap when you're thirty seven and thirty means

268
00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:18,600
Speaker 6: a lot more than if they were twenty five and

269
00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:21,520
Speaker 6: thirty two or whatever, like the farther in absolute sense,

270
00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:24,880
Speaker 6: we get the more that matters. But really I just

271
00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:26,840
Speaker 6: don't know what to expect out of Jose Aldo. You know,

272
00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:28,680
Speaker 6: we were talking about it before the show. It's the

273
00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:31,840
Speaker 6: post Usada era. All of a sudden he's no longer retired.

274
00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:35,600
Speaker 6: That's at the very least suspicious, but also he's probably

275
00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:38,840
Speaker 6: declined physically. I have no idea how much MMA he

276
00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:42,000
Speaker 6: was doing during his quote unquote retirement where he had

277
00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:44,679
Speaker 6: three professional boxing matches. No idea if he was just

278
00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:47,320
Speaker 6: out there partying, you know, taking these fights kind of

279
00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:49,400
Speaker 6: on a lark, or whether he was in his camp

280
00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:52,080
Speaker 6: doing his Jose Aldo stuff and kind of what I

281
00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:54,200
Speaker 6: arrive at with that when it's when you can see

282
00:12:54,200 --> 00:12:57,160
Speaker 6: such a high degree of volatility, is that's what makes

283
00:12:57,160 --> 00:12:59,520
Speaker 6: me want to take the unders. Because if Jose Aldo

284
00:12:59,559 --> 00:13:01,319
Speaker 6: comes out looks like a thirty eight year old man

285
00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:05,000
Speaker 6: with seven hundred million significant strikes absorbed in his career,

286
00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:07,319
Speaker 6: maybe we do get a finish out of Martinez, right Like,

287
00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:10,560
Speaker 6: he's a very impressive young striker coming up, you know,

288
00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:12,960
Speaker 6: finishing some people with leg kicks, has some good punching

289
00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:15,839
Speaker 6: game as well. He could just be so much more

290
00:13:15,880 --> 00:13:18,719
Speaker 6: athletically fit than although at this point that he just

291
00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:22,000
Speaker 6: started him, that would not shock me, But neither would

292
00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:24,960
Speaker 6: prime Jose Aldo coming out throwing flying knees, jumping all

293
00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:27,400
Speaker 6: over the place, landing a bunch of power. That wouldn't

294
00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:29,719
Speaker 6: really surprise me either. I just don't know which way

295
00:13:29,760 --> 00:13:31,719
Speaker 6: we're gonna go, So then to get more than two

296
00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:33,240
Speaker 6: to one odds at the under two and a half,

297
00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:35,719
Speaker 6: that feels like the obvious answer there. If I had

298
00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:38,600
Speaker 6: to pick a side, I'd lean with Martinez. We know

299
00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:41,199
Speaker 6: the age stats, we know all that. But I really

300
00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:43,920
Speaker 6: do like the Aldo decision only line because I just

301
00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:46,160
Speaker 6: don't see Martinez getting a decision in a close striking

302
00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:49,559
Speaker 6: match when all those gonna look more impressive, look more dynamic,

303
00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:52,040
Speaker 6: and have the crowd losing his mind every time he

304
00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:53,960
Speaker 6: so much as jabs Jonathan Martinez.

305
00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:55,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it mostly comes down to the head

306
00:13:55,760 --> 00:13:58,280
Speaker 4: strike differential and just the fact that al those likely

307
00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:00,240
Speaker 4: to be hitting the head, Martinez is probably gonna pull

308
00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:01,360
Speaker 4: away with like kick volume.

309
00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:03,080
Speaker 5: But how does that score with the judges?

310
00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:05,559
Speaker 4: You know, especially in the arena, when every time Although

311
00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:09,800
Speaker 4: lands a punch that hits Martinez's guard, the crowd's going

312
00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:12,080
Speaker 4: to be going nuts. But when Martinez does anything, the

313
00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:13,680
Speaker 4: crowd is just going to be dead silent. So you

314
00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:16,920
Speaker 4: don't know what kind of influence that has on the judges,

315
00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:19,080
Speaker 4: regardless of where the judges are coming from. That's kind

316
00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:21,120
Speaker 4: of what I mean with regards to like the crowd

317
00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:24,600
Speaker 4: influencing the judges. It's just the reactions to things that

318
00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:27,680
Speaker 4: you know, the home guy does versus the things that

319
00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:29,800
Speaker 4: happened to him are so disparate.

320
00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:33,080
Speaker 5: We're in the in the Apex, it's even.

321
00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:36,240
Speaker 4: Crazier because you have you could hear everything, but you

322
00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:39,560
Speaker 4: have these corners reacting every time their fighter throws out

323
00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:41,360
Speaker 4: any sort of volume as though you know they just

324
00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:44,840
Speaker 4: landed a knockout blow, and the big cheers and the explosions,

325
00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:48,000
Speaker 4: and it's like they're clearly trying to emphasize the enthusiasm

326
00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:49,920
Speaker 4: to try to sway the judges. So I find the

327
00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:53,080
Speaker 4: Apex fight scoring to be very interesting. When one corner

328
00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:55,240
Speaker 4: is particularly loud, it seems to get the judges in

329
00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:55,760
Speaker 4: their favor.

330
00:14:56,720 --> 00:14:59,320
Speaker 6: We're gonna get a lot of good pojas from the

331
00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:00,720
Speaker 6: adult corner in this one.

332
00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:03,320
Speaker 7: Every time he lands anything, it's gonna be evyan.

333
00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:05,440
Speaker 6: You know, if you do any jiu jitsu or know

334
00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:08,200
Speaker 6: any Portuguese fighters, you get a lot of that Poha.

335
00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:10,280
Speaker 7: I'm looking forward to that this card in general, but

336
00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:11,680
Speaker 7: specifically for Alldough.

337
00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:14,560
Speaker 1: So Billy, if you want to play Martinez, is it

338
00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:16,400
Speaker 1: better for the folks to play him now?

339
00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:18,160
Speaker 3: Or do you think you can get shorter than minus

340
00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:18,720
Speaker 3: one forty?

341
00:15:20,040 --> 00:15:22,040
Speaker 7: I don't know. It stayed pretty firm.

342
00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:24,320
Speaker 6: I mean, there's there's been some movement, but he opened

343
00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:27,320
Speaker 6: it minus one thirty five a couple weeks ago, briefly

344
00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:29,600
Speaker 6: longer now back to minus one forty. I guess the

345
00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:32,480
Speaker 6: name recognition on Aldo could push it a little bit more,

346
00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:34,960
Speaker 6: but I don't think it's gonna be significant changes at

347
00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:37,720
Speaker 6: this point. I think this is about what we're gonna get.

348
00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:41,280
Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast is presented by BETTMGM used Bonus

349
00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:44,200
Speaker 1: Code Action when signing up TA get up to fifteen

350
00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:46,840
Speaker 1: hundred dollars back and bonus bets if your first bet

351
00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:55,120
Speaker 1: does not win. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

352
00:15:55,200 --> 00:16:00,080
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming,

353
00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:03,320
Speaker 1: Bonus Code Action will give new users in North Carolina

354
00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:06,040
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets for betting

355
00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:08,640
Speaker 1: just five dollars. Terms and conditions apply. It must be

356
00:16:08,680 --> 00:16:13,040
Speaker 1: twenty one or older. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler.

357
00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:17,360
Speaker 1: Let's go to underdogs for this card. Seanzillo good week

358
00:16:17,800 --> 00:16:19,280
Speaker 1: for dogs generally speaking.

359
00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:22,600
Speaker 4: So there's a lot of fights that are pretty heavily

360
00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:25,760
Speaker 4: juiced for favorites, and I do feel like in the

361
00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:29,360
Speaker 4: fights that are more closely lined this fight are the

362
00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:32,520
Speaker 4: Alda fight we just discussed, the URSAG fight, and Kevin

363
00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:36,000
Speaker 4: Borjas at plus one point fifteen against Alessandra Costa. Those

364
00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:38,520
Speaker 4: are the fights that are more closely lined, and I

365
00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:41,040
Speaker 4: kind of like the underdogs and all of those matchups.

366
00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:45,240
Speaker 4: So maybe you know, if those three cash and one

367
00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:48,040
Speaker 4: of the big underdogs comes home, it'll absolutely be a

368
00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:51,240
Speaker 4: profitable week for dogs. But in terms of the first

369
00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:53,120
Speaker 4: fight on the card, I'm going with Brazil on a

370
00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:54,920
Speaker 4: lot of this cart I'm going against Brazil in the

371
00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:57,200
Speaker 4: first fight of the night. Borjas is the bigger man,

372
00:16:57,360 --> 00:17:01,720
Speaker 4: He's more durable, he throws more volume. I think Costa

373
00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:05,520
Speaker 4: hits harder and has all of the grappling upside, but

374
00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:08,760
Speaker 4: Borjas is pretty good takedown defense, and really good scrambling ability.

375
00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:15,240
Speaker 4: Also with Costa, he prioritizes submissions over positions, which allows

376
00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:18,080
Speaker 4: his opponents to scramble. If he doesn't lock into submission,

377
00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:20,199
Speaker 4: and if he doesn't lock in the submission, it's not

378
00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:20,919
Speaker 4: going to score it all.

379
00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:21,479
Speaker 5: With the judges.

380
00:17:21,560 --> 00:17:24,760
Speaker 4: The takedown won't score, the submission attempt won't score. So

381
00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:30,320
Speaker 4: obviously a bit concerned taking a non Brazilian fighter in Brazil,

382
00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:32,879
Speaker 4: especially in the first fight on the card, But the

383
00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:35,000
Speaker 4: crab will be a little quieter, a little less full

384
00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:38,639
Speaker 4: by the time that first fight starts, And I just

385
00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:41,479
Speaker 4: I think Borjas is a good style to make this

386
00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:44,679
Speaker 4: fight close, if not look like the outright favorite, particularly

387
00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:47,159
Speaker 4: if Costa doesn't grapple. I just don't think he's proactive

388
00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:49,800
Speaker 4: enough with the thing that will give him the biggest

389
00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:52,000
Speaker 4: advantage in this fight. And even if he does, I

390
00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:54,080
Speaker 4: think Borjas is a pretty good chance of defending it.

391
00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:57,360
Speaker 4: So borhas to me gonna land the harder, cleaner strikes

392
00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:00,520
Speaker 4: and maybe even finished. His opponent had the you're finishing

393
00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:03,159
Speaker 4: chance in this fight. So Borjas DOWNNU about plus one

394
00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:05,480
Speaker 4: ten plus one oh five for me in the first

395
00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:07,199
Speaker 4: fighting the card.

396
00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:09,520
Speaker 3: Billy underdog for the week.

397
00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:12,199
Speaker 7: What do you got? Yeah, real quick. I do like

398
00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:13,080
Speaker 7: Borjas as well.

399
00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:16,000
Speaker 6: One of the reasons his loss against Joshua Van has

400
00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:18,280
Speaker 6: aged incredibly well because we're all super high on josh

401
00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:20,520
Speaker 6: Van now, so that kind of pushed me to that one.

402
00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:22,560
Speaker 6: In the markets with Zerrilla too, he's came down to

403
00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:24,320
Speaker 6: plus one ten I think is the best line now.

404
00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:26,879
Speaker 4: Oh god, I mean he was like plus one sixty

405
00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:30,160
Speaker 4: earlier in the week. His lines really crashed, So yeah,

406
00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:33,080
Speaker 4: big movement towards Borjas. But me even closes the fareb

407
00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:33,760
Speaker 4: we'll see.

408
00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:36,520
Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm kicking myself for not getting on that one

409
00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:38,399
Speaker 6: in the luck ratings are taking that one earlier. But

410
00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:42,200
Speaker 6: the other non Brazilian I'm on is Arnesta Karasdi fighting

411
00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:46,000
Speaker 6: Dion Barbosa, both of them making their USC debut. Barboso

412
00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:48,439
Speaker 6: is a big favorite because she finished her Contender Series

413
00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:51,560
Speaker 6: fight by armbar where Karasiti won a split decision. I

414
00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:53,560
Speaker 6: thought it was pretty clearly the right decision. It wasn't

415
00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:55,760
Speaker 6: one where I think she was probably the real loser.

416
00:18:56,119 --> 00:18:59,280
Speaker 6: But Barboza is extremely one dimensional. She had like four

417
00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:01,760
Speaker 6: minutes of control time in her Contender Series fight I

418
00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:04,719
Speaker 6: think landed like six strikes, like barely even attempted to

419
00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:07,600
Speaker 6: do any damage. She is selling out for submissions and

420
00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:10,000
Speaker 6: if she doesn't get them, doesn't really have a plan.

421
00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:13,920
Speaker 6: Be Karsity is more of a striker, has a huge

422
00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:16,600
Speaker 6: reach advantage. I think she's three inches taller and four

423
00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:17,640
Speaker 6: and a half inches in reach.

424
00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:20,560
Speaker 7: Pretty big. We're now in the big cage, not the

425
00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:21,800
Speaker 7: consenter series cage.

426
00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:25,200
Speaker 6: Karosity could easily not easily, but has a shot to

427
00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:28,040
Speaker 6: dance around on the outside. You know, stick jabs, throw

428
00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:30,760
Speaker 6: long punches, and if Barbosa doesn't get that takedown, she's

429
00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:34,040
Speaker 6: got nothing. And it's gonna look so wherever this one

430
00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:36,760
Speaker 6: takes place, it's gonna be very one sided, even to

431
00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:38,920
Speaker 6: the point where I'm not worried about Brazilian judges going

432
00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:41,960
Speaker 6: against Karasity because you can't or not Brazilian judges, but

433
00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:46,240
Speaker 6: judges in Brazil influenced by the crowd, because karsites outlander.

434
00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:49,080
Speaker 6: You know, three to one on the feet, and if

435
00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:51,440
Speaker 6: Barboza gets it to the ground, she's got a massive edge.

436
00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:53,399
Speaker 6: So I like the long odds. You can get a

437
00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:54,800
Speaker 6: little bit better than two to one. I think plus

438
00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:57,600
Speaker 6: two tons the best out there now, it just seems

439
00:19:57,640 --> 00:19:59,600
Speaker 6: like too too strong of a line for.

440
00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:01,480
Speaker 7: Two women and both making their UFC debut.

441
00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:04,600
Speaker 6: Neither has fought really tough competition, and it's a pretty

442
00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:06,840
Speaker 6: binary fight with one having a big advantage in one

443
00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:08,000
Speaker 6: area and one in the other.

444
00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:10,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, I was gonna say pretty binary. I'm interested in

445
00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:12,720
Speaker 4: that ends inside the distance of plus money. It just

446
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:15,800
Speaker 4: seems like the stylistic matchup should align with one of

447
00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:17,320
Speaker 4: them finding a finish.

448
00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,160
Speaker 6: Karasite just doesn't seem to hit very hard though. She's

449
00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:23,639
Speaker 6: just kind of a volume punch, so I don't hate that angle.

450
00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:26,240
Speaker 6: But if you're doing that, it probably favors Barbosa, So

451
00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:28,879
Speaker 6: you might as well take inside the distance and you

452
00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:31,000
Speaker 6: could play those too, because I think Barbosa inside the

453
00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:34,719
Speaker 6: distance pretty heavily. Plus money go KAROSITI decision only like

454
00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:36,719
Speaker 6: you could get get cute with it, because I think

455
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:37,520
Speaker 6: that's a good point too.

456
00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,040
Speaker 4: I think the interesting dynamic here and in a lot

457
00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:42,680
Speaker 4: of fights like this, is where one fighter is a

458
00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:46,680
Speaker 4: big reach advantage better striker. How much power does Karasiti

459
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 4: have to scare Barbosa off of her? Because if she

460
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:52,000
Speaker 4: doesn't have any power in her hands, the reach advantage

461
00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:54,119
Speaker 4: doesn't matter because Barbosa is just going to be sticking

462
00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:56,280
Speaker 4: to her the entire time and trying to wear on

463
00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:58,480
Speaker 4: her and making this fight dirty. But if she has

464
00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:00,960
Speaker 4: a little bit of power to get respect yet, this

465
00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:05,119
Speaker 4: is probably Kerocedes fight, so very interesting underdog play. I

466
00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:07,200
Speaker 4: have to write a deeper breakdown on this one for

467
00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:10,120
Speaker 4: my four article this week because nobody wanted to claim

468
00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:12,480
Speaker 4: this fight. So I'm interested to see that Billy had

469
00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:14,720
Speaker 4: a strong take on this fight because nobody claimed this

470
00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:17,240
Speaker 4: fight for me this week, so I may I may

471
00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:18,480
Speaker 4: end up on the same side as you.

472
00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:20,800
Speaker 7: A little bit of behind the scene tier.

473
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:23,120
Speaker 6: I actually much later went back and said I would

474
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,000
Speaker 6: do that one, but I was told you were happy

475
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:27,280
Speaker 6: to write that one up, so I got to it late.

476
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:29,560
Speaker 7: Unfortunately it was a slow week for me.

477
00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:32,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, they'd been windling down throughout the week, so I

478
00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:34,040
Speaker 4: think I think it's a crew. We have pretty strong

479
00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:36,679
Speaker 4: takes on this card because that there's only like two

480
00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:38,960
Speaker 4: left for me that weren't claimed by the rest of

481
00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:41,240
Speaker 4: our staff this week, and you were on a Billy.

482
00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:44,399
Speaker 1: Three inch difference in height and four and a half

483
00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:48,600
Speaker 1: four and a half inches in reach is the is

484
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:49,520
Speaker 1: the difference there.

485
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:52,480
Speaker 6: And to expand on Zerola's point about the power, I

486
00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:54,480
Speaker 6: think Kerosait is also a really good athlete. She was

487
00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:57,320
Speaker 6: like a college level swimmer before she got there. That

488
00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:01,520
Speaker 6: sometimes translates to having enough footwork and mobility and cardio

489
00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:02,919
Speaker 6: where even if you don't have the power or you

490
00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:04,960
Speaker 6: can just kind of dance and run away. So I

491
00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:08,120
Speaker 6: think if you're if you're rooting for kearrosity here, expect

492
00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:12,320
Speaker 6: to not be entertained necessarily. But you know, I'm Rooin

493
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 6: Ford to just dance around on the outside for fifteen minutes.

494
00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 7: Not show.

495
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:20,440
Speaker 4: She moved to a legitimate jim. She moved from Lithuania

496
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 4: to MMA Masters and has been training there since she

497
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,920
Speaker 4: earned her UFC contract, So could see some pretty significant

498
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:26,920
Speaker 4: improvements from her as well.

499
00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:27,960
Speaker 7: Yeah.

500
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,000
Speaker 6: I mean we've been talking about the past couple weeks

501
00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:31,760
Speaker 6: with fighters that all of a sudden they have the

502
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:34,399
Speaker 6: resources to train at a real gym and not just

503
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:36,679
Speaker 6: like their three buddies and their hometown or whatever, and

504
00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:37,960
Speaker 6: that can make a big difference.

505
00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:41,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, UFC three oh one in Rio. Let's head to

506
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 1: the prop market. What jumps out? Where's some value in

507
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:45,960
Speaker 1: the prop market?

508
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:46,320
Speaker 7: This week?

509
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:46,679
Speaker 3: Sean.

510
00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 7: Yeah.

511
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:50,119
Speaker 4: The first prop that was just my blind read was

512
00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:54,919
Speaker 4: Kyle Ojio by Tko or Ko against Paul Craig. He

513
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 4: said this week that he plans to go for the knockout,

514
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:00,439
Speaker 4: and I don't generally believe what fighters say, but this

515
00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:03,639
Speaker 4: is a setup fight for the UFC to give this

516
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:06,159
Speaker 4: kid a highlight real knockout and continue to advance him

517
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:08,240
Speaker 4: up the rankings, and I think he knows that he

518
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 4: needs some finishes in order to.

519
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:10,880
Speaker 5: Advance up the rankings.

520
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:14,120
Speaker 4: If this plays out as jiu jitsu match, Paul Craig

521
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 4: absolutely has a chance, because he does against anybody in

522
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 4: a jiu jitsu match, especially if he's going to.

523
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:19,200
Speaker 5: Be on his back.

524
00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:22,080
Speaker 4: Kyo is the much better wrestler, he's the better striker,

525
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 4: it's the stronger guy, but Paul Craig just makes everything

526
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 4: chaotic once you're on the ground, and I doubt Kyo

527
00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:30,600
Speaker 4: really wants to engage him there. I also haven't been

528
00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:35,119
Speaker 4: particularly impressed by Kyo's offensive submission game. He is very

529
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 4: good offensive jiu jitsu control, but he doesn't necessarily actively

530
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:41,880
Speaker 4: pursue submissions, and he's had some fighters in very dangerous

531
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:45,919
Speaker 4: positions and hasn't actively pursued the submissions either. So if

532
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 4: they play a jiu jitsu match, I think Craig maybe

533
00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:51,159
Speaker 4: has the higher finishing upside. But if this is going

534
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,399
Speaker 4: to play as a striking match, if Kyo is going

535
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:57,399
Speaker 4: to anti grapple or uses wrestling defensively to keep this

536
00:23:57,440 --> 00:23:59,960
Speaker 4: fight standing, I think he's going to land an overhand

537
00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 4: and knock Paul Craig out. So Kyle Ohio by KO

538
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:06,399
Speaker 4: or TKO at PLUSQ twenty five and then I'm just

539
00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 4: gonna go ahead and co sign on one of Billy's

540
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:13,119
Speaker 4: favorite bets on this card, because Kyle is one of

541
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 4: my favorite bets on this card in terms of getting

542
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:19,280
Speaker 4: the knockout or finish. And then Mauricio Hoofi at even

543
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 4: money to get a knockout. Billy's gonna say for later,

544
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:23,000
Speaker 4: but I just want to go ahead and co sign

545
00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:26,119
Speaker 4: on that because that's my other favorite prop on this card.

546
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:29,160
Speaker 4: I think Jamie Malarky's chin is just completely shot, so

547
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:32,480
Speaker 4: I think Hoofy also set up for a highlight reel knockout.

548
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 1: More on that from Billy and best bets and Billy

549
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 1: for your prop, what do you have for us?

550
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 7: Yeah?

551
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 6: I do like both the ones I've got a slight

552
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 6: version vary into what Sean said in My Best Basketball

553
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 6: Get that in a second. I like Michelle Pejeda in

554
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,879
Speaker 6: round one at plus one twenty. Since he came up

555
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:51,840
Speaker 6: to middleweight, he's finished both of his fights in like

556
00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:55,200
Speaker 6: a minute. Ihor Potierra coming down from two oho five.

557
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:58,200
Speaker 6: That was the only fight in the UFC he looked

558
00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 6: not terrible in I don't even want to say Gray

559
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:03,440
Speaker 6: a little bit dangerous. He's got the striking, he's got

560
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:06,040
Speaker 6: decent power. He has like four knockdowns. He's managed to

561
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:09,399
Speaker 6: score knockdowns and still lose a fight, which is, you know,

562
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 6: quite the stat for EWHRR Pottieria. But just like Sean

563
00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:14,640
Speaker 6: was talking about a couple of weeks ago, Paieda has

564
00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:16,920
Speaker 6: that easy button if he wants to grapple it all here.

565
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 6: He's so big and strong and physically imposing on the feet,

566
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 6: he could probably knock him out. I would I would

567
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 6: make paid a favorite in a straight kickboxing match here,

568
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 6: But you mix in grappling in there and how bad

569
00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:30,360
Speaker 6: Ehors looked on the ground, and.

570
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 7: I don't think it takes long.

571
00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 6: I thought we would probably see Paida actually favored down

572
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:36,240
Speaker 6: this one in round one, So to get plus money

573
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 6: on that, I'm pretty happy. And I'm also excited the

574
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 6: UFC is doing the Showgun Who a revenge tour here

575
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 6: Ehorr retired Showgun who a massive underdog to Michelle Paeda.

576
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:49,159
Speaker 6: Paul Craig beat Showgun Who a massive underdog to kyob Ohio.

577
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:52,200
Speaker 6: So love to see their respect paid to the legend,

578
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:54,160
Speaker 6: even though he's not stepping into the cage anymore.

579
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 4: I noticed the same game parlay for Pehera and under

580
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 4: one and a half round about minus one ten, minus

581
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 4: one fifteen, So just an alternate way to play that

582
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:06,119
Speaker 4: and to get the extra two and a half minutes

583
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:08,880
Speaker 4: where you have it available. Ehor gets very tired after

584
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:12,080
Speaker 4: round one. In fact, if Ehor lands a knockdown in

585
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 4: round one and the odds move and you can get

586
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,720
Speaker 4: a decent price a Michelle Pehera after round one, after

587
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:20,240
Speaker 4: he potentially loses round one, I would absolutely take that

588
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:22,720
Speaker 4: because moving up to middleweight he should have better cardio.

589
00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:25,399
Speaker 4: We haven't seen that yet, and Ewhor just has terrible

590
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:26,639
Speaker 4: cardio after five minutes.

591
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,200
Speaker 3: All right, gents, let's head to uh best bets.

592
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:31,879
Speaker 1: I'll just all said it to Billy first, just to

593
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:34,760
Speaker 1: pick up where we were talking there about, is it.

594
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 3: Roughy hoofy hoofy Okay.

595
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:43,560
Speaker 6: Yeah, he's nine on one as a professional. All ten

596
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:46,040
Speaker 6: of his fights have ended with somebody getting knocked out.

597
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:49,480
Speaker 6: And basically, just to echo what Sean said, Jamie Malarkey

598
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:51,399
Speaker 6: just seems to have no chin. He's not old. He

599
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 6: hasn't even had that many fights. I mean twenty four fights.

600
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 6: It's decent, he's still twenty nine, but he's got knocked

601
00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:58,920
Speaker 6: out bad. Like, it's not just the fact that he's

602
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:01,960
Speaker 6: been knocked out. He's three and three over his last six.

603
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:04,960
Speaker 6: All the losses were knockouts. Thought he died against Jalen

604
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 6: Turner like I was surprised to see him get up

605
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 6: successfully in those fight starts by Nazareth Hakparas in his

606
00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 6: last fight that was just December, not a huge amount

607
00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 6: of time off two bad knockouts in the last eleven months.

608
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 6: I think Malarky still got something left in the tank,

609
00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:22,679
Speaker 6: but he needs matchups against guys who are going to

610
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 6: engage him in the grappling, more technical striking matchups always

611
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 6: going to take his one here from Hoofy, So that

612
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,359
Speaker 6: should be so much closer to his money line instead,

613
00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 6: It's like a much better price then the only I

614
00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 6: guess calveat to the Kyle Ohio knockout. I was actually

615
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 6: really hoping to get Kyo inside the by submission at

616
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 6: big plus money this week, same line as knockout the

617
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:49,919
Speaker 6: books have. The books have that as same likelihood as

618
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:52,960
Speaker 6: a finish by strikes, which I actually agree with. I

619
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:54,720
Speaker 6: thought that was a pretty sharp call by the odds

620
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:55,760
Speaker 6: makers on that one.

621
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:58,120
Speaker 7: Kyle's very accomplished grappler.

622
00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 6: In his own right judo brown belt on some like

623
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:04,680
Speaker 6: national level judo championships as a kid. I don't see

624
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:07,400
Speaker 6: Craig getting the takedown here, but I could see Paul

625
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:10,720
Speaker 6: Craig doing his stupid, like horrible double leg that doesn't

626
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:13,160
Speaker 6: work flop to my back. Kyle hits him a little

627
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 6: bit and then just locks up with submission in a

628
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,359
Speaker 6: club and sub and I could also see Kyo just

629
00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 6: kind of wanting to engage with Craig in a straight

630
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:22,680
Speaker 6: up grappling match, like he doesn't seem like the type

631
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 6: is going to shy away from that high level black

632
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 6: belt himself. That's minus one twenty five. I would say

633
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 6: that a knockout is slightly more likely than a submission.

634
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:34,120
Speaker 6: I just don't think it's what the market is reflecting.

635
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:36,160
Speaker 6: So I'm going to cover my bases with the minus

636
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:38,720
Speaker 6: one twenty five be pulling for Sean's back because obviously

637
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 6: we both cash in that case. But selfishly, I also

638
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:43,560
Speaker 6: want to see some grappling in this one. It would

639
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 6: be a really fun matchup. You know, sometimes there's real slow,

640
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 6: technical grapplers and it kind of isn't that fun?

641
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 7: These guys go for it.

642
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 6: Paul Craig is just desperately throwing up submissions, hoping for

643
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 6: the best, trying weird calf slicers. It'll be a fun

644
00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 6: one if it does hit the match, and if it doesn't,

645
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:00,840
Speaker 6: then Kyle's got your knack count and we both cash

646
00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:01,240
Speaker 6: either way.

647
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:04,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, Kyle loves controlling opponents from guard. I mean, this

648
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 4: is this is matchmaking beauty right here. This is exactly

649
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 4: what they wanted is Kyle had to take him down

650
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:11,880
Speaker 4: and see what Paul Craigan knew, see if he can

651
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:14,000
Speaker 4: even advance best Paul Greig's guard. I mean, I would

652
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 4: absolutely love to see grappling in this match, even though

653
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 4: I have a knockout ticket, Like, yeah, who does.

654
00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 1: Two best bets from Billyzerillo. You've got two as well.

655
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 1: Take us home here.

656
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 3: Well, I did have two.

657
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:27,960
Speaker 4: Gene Silva has now steamed dramatically and wayns This morning,

658
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:31,120
Speaker 4: William Gomies came in two and a half pounds underneath

659
00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 4: the one hundred and forty six pound limit, and he

660
00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:37,120
Speaker 4: looked absolutely terrible on the scale. I would be kind

661
00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:40,120
Speaker 4: of surprised if they let this fight go forward. It

662
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 4: seems like they might. But Gomies was a very public

663
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 4: underdog this week, or a very public side, I should

664
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:46,840
Speaker 4: say this week.

665
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 5: This is a pick them fight.

666
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 4: But Gomees was getting picked at around sixty percent of

667
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 4: the time at across the data points I'm using obviously

668
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 4: he had the weight miss, the line steamed, or not

669
00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 4: the weight miss, but the weight issue. The line steamed

670
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 4: towards Silva, and I think it's probably out of range now.

671
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 4: Gomees is the taller, the longer fighter, but he doesn't

672
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 4: engage his opponents very actively, and I think he's gonna

673
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 4: be getting bootle out here. I think the crowd is

674
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 4: going to be acting reacting massively anytime Silva's pressuring or

675
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 4: throwing combinations, because he's going to be the guy moving forward,

676
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 4: and regardless of how the fight plays out, I think

677
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:25,480
Speaker 4: it's going to be close. But I do think Silva's

678
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 4: advancement and forward pressure and octagon control may actually be

679
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:31,080
Speaker 4: what decides it for the judges. I know fights are

680
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 4: scored on damage. I think Gomes is going to land

681
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:36,160
Speaker 4: more kicks. I think Silva is just going to be

682
00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 4: more active, and also like the cardio could be an

683
00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:41,800
Speaker 4: issue for Gomees too now after the light miss. So

684
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 4: if you can get Silva minus one thirty five are better,

685
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,280
Speaker 4: I think I'm interested still, but minus won fifty not

686
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 4: thank you. And then my final bet Joe Anderson Brito,

687
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:54,120
Speaker 4: I think he's just too physical for Jack Shore Jack Shuer.

688
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:55,960
Speaker 4: I bet against him when he was at one thirty

689
00:30:56,000 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 4: five with Ricky Simone, who seemed like the perfect stylistic

690
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 4: matchup to be Jack Shorre, and he ended up knocking

691
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:05,200
Speaker 4: him out. But it was just very evident that Sure

692
00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:07,640
Speaker 4: struggles against guys who are physically stronger than him, who

693
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 4: employ a simpler game plan, and that's basically what he's

694
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 4: facing with Joe Anderson Brito. Except for the bat he's

695
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:15,200
Speaker 4: moved up from one thirty five to one forty five,

696
00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 4: and I don't think Jack Shorre necessarily has the frame

697
00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 4: or the physicality for one forty five, whereas Brito seems

698
00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:24,320
Speaker 4: like one of the more physical one forty five ers

699
00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 4: out there. So I think he's gonna man handle Jack Shore.

700
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 4: He's an absolute powerhouse. If he doesn't finish him, though

701
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 4: within the first ten minutes, I think Shore's live to

702
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 4: potentially secure a round three finish. So Joe Anderson Brito

703
00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 4: pre fight up to about minus one seventy five, and

704
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 4: then I would consider Jack Shorre live after round two

705
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 4: if Brido doesn't get him out of there. Maybe not

706
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 4: hedge all the way out of my position, but definitely

707
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:48,760
Speaker 4: a piece of it. Brito's looking particularly tired, so Brito

708
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:50,960
Speaker 4: inside the distance, but also his money line up to

709
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:52,320
Speaker 4: about minus one seventy five.

710
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:54,719
Speaker 3: Alrighty fellas, that's gonna do it.

711
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 1: UFC three to zero one in Rio.

712
00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:58,280
Speaker 3: I'll get started at six Eastern.

713
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 1: The prelimbs at six, more prelims at eight o'clock on

714
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 1: the ESPN family of networks, and the pay per view

715
00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:09,400
Speaker 1: main card starts at ten o'clock. Find Sean Zarrillo and

716
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 1: Billy Ward. Especially when we discuss those live angles. Keep

717
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 1: an eye on the Action app as the night unfolds

718
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 1: to see what they might be adding.

719
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 3: What they might not be adding.

720
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:19,680
Speaker 1: There might not be an edge and there might not

721
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 1: be a spot to get involved. That's the other way

722
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:22,760
Speaker 1: you got to look at it too.

723
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 3: You can also find Zarillo Billy.

724
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:29,240
Speaker 1: They contribute to our UFC Contentactionnetwork dot com Action Network

725
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:31,840
Speaker 1: app Billy's Got His Luck ratings up. Check all of

726
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:35,960
Speaker 1: that out when you see fit. Brendan Glasheen signing off,

727
00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us here on the Action Network podcast

728
00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 1: for our UFC betting preview. Action Network Podcast is.

729
00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:45,360
Speaker 3: Presented by BETMGM. We all have a fabulous weekend. In

730
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 3: best of.

731
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 1: Black, Action Network reminds you please gambler responsibly.

732
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:01,240
Speaker 5: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem.

733
00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 2: Help is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred

734
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 2: Gambler