1 00:00:02,529 --> 00:00:06,210 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. 2 00:00:06,650 --> 00:00:07,050 Speaker 2: News. 3 00:00:12,530 --> 00:00:16,670 Speaker 3: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays 4 00:00:16,730 --> 00:00:20,210 Speaker 3: at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto 5 00:00:20,300 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 3: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 6 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 3: get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. 7 00:00:27,880 --> 00:00:31,000 Speaker 4: So the basic act here, folks, is I control the show. 8 00:00:31,710 --> 00:00:32,370 Speaker 5: No, Mrs. 9 00:00:32,470 --> 00:00:35,530 Speaker 6: King controls the show. She hears your dining's going to 10 00:00:35,550 --> 00:00:39,209 Speaker 6: be on, and I get a text message. Ed, with 11 00:00:39,250 --> 00:00:45,160 Speaker 6: your dogs, do you get their teeth cleaned for $ 1, 300 12 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:45,360 Speaker 6: each time? 13 00:00:45,780 --> 00:00:47,580 Speaker 4: Well, no, we brush them ourselves. 14 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 5: You brush them yourself? 15 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, we love our dogs. 16 00:00:50,060 --> 00:00:51,870 Speaker 5: That bill in Kenilfy won't let me do that. Like, 17 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:52,770 Speaker 5: they're going to take. 18 00:00:52,670 --> 00:00:54,390 Speaker 4: My hand off. $ 1, 800 is too much. 19 00:00:54,530 --> 00:00:55,590 Speaker 5: Do you medicate them? 20 00:00:56,350 --> 00:01:00,300 Speaker 4: No, no, no. No, okay. 21 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:04,559 Speaker 2: No, they're good dogs, and they get groomed, and the 22 00:01:04,580 --> 00:01:05,610 Speaker 2: groomer brushes their teeth. 23 00:01:05,810 --> 00:01:07,990 Speaker 6: I get a call from Mdani's office when I get 24 00:01:08,030 --> 00:01:12,170 Speaker 6: the dogs groomed. It's so damn expensive. It's outrageous what 25 00:01:12,190 --> 00:01:12,929 Speaker 6: we're paying for that. 26 00:01:12,950 --> 00:01:14,850 Speaker 4: Affordability crisis and dog grooming. 27 00:01:15,050 --> 00:01:17,630 Speaker 5: That segues us right to the equity markets. Thank you. 28 00:01:17,650 --> 00:01:19,050 Speaker 5: The show can continue now. 29 00:01:19,090 --> 00:01:19,350 Speaker 7: Mrs. 30 00:01:19,430 --> 00:01:20,890 Speaker 5: Keene is happy to have that. 31 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 6: Ed Yardeni with us with all of his iconic work 32 00:01:23,860 --> 00:01:26,200 Speaker 6: linking economics to the markets as well. 33 00:01:26,300 --> 00:01:29,459 Speaker 5: Do you reaffirm a roaring 20s scenario? 34 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:32,759 Speaker 2: Seven years in, we're so far so good. Real GDP, 35 00:01:32,780 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 2: all-time record high. Stock market, all-time record high. 36 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:38,560 Speaker 4: So far so good. Just three more years. 37 00:01:39,550 --> 00:01:43,590 Speaker 2: I mean, there are issues ahead, but it's amazing how 38 00:01:43,650 --> 00:01:47,530 Speaker 2: well the economy has performed despite all the shocks that 39 00:01:47,570 --> 00:01:50,190 Speaker 2: it's had to absorb since the beginning of the decade. 40 00:01:50,310 --> 00:01:51,570 Speaker 2: So far, so good, as I said. 41 00:01:51,790 --> 00:01:54,050 Speaker 8: Edwin, you are the quintessential card counter when it comes 42 00:01:54,070 --> 00:01:56,010 Speaker 8: to looking at fixed income markets and, you know, your 43 00:01:56,050 --> 00:01:59,410 Speaker 8: work on debt levels in the U.S. and France and abroad. But, 44 00:01:59,470 --> 00:02:02,910 Speaker 8: you know, you're referring to bond yields back to their, quote, unquote, 45 00:02:03,130 --> 00:02:05,470 Speaker 8: old normal here in your latest note. Talk to us 46 00:02:05,530 --> 00:02:06,890 Speaker 8: about the old normal. 47 00:02:06,950 --> 00:02:07,310 Speaker 5: I love it. 48 00:02:08,300 --> 00:02:12,630 Speaker 2: Well, you know, there's an expression that people use to 49 00:02:13,410 --> 00:02:16,590 Speaker 2: explain where interest rates are right now, and that is 50 00:02:17,250 --> 00:02:18,130 Speaker 2: higher for longer. 51 00:02:18,350 --> 00:02:18,549 Speaker 6: Right. 52 00:02:18,889 --> 00:02:19,890 Speaker 4: And I don't know. 53 00:02:19,910 --> 00:02:24,400 Speaker 2: That just doesn't—it rubs me the wrong way, quite honestly. 54 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 2: I don't think it's higher for longer. I think it's 55 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:30,620 Speaker 2: normal for longer. We're back to normal rates, the abnormal rates. 56 00:02:31,010 --> 00:02:34,090 Speaker 2: rate environment was between the great financial crisis and the 57 00:02:34,130 --> 00:02:38,030 Speaker 2: great virus crisis. Right before the great financial crisis, we 58 00:02:38,050 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 2: were running between 4% to 5% and occasionally spiked above 5%, 59 00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:44,040 Speaker 2: deja vu all over again. 60 00:02:44,300 --> 00:02:46,780 Speaker 8: And you rightly point out that it's basically, if you 61 00:02:46,820 --> 00:02:51,180 Speaker 8: look at household ownings of treasuries or corporate ownings, it's 62 00:02:51,820 --> 00:02:55,169 Speaker 8: minuscule compared to where it has been in years past. Yet, 63 00:02:55,230 --> 00:02:57,010 Speaker 8: now we look at the size of the US treasury 64 00:02:57,070 --> 00:03:00,339 Speaker 8: market and people are actually equating the fundamentals of the U.S. 65 00:03:00,380 --> 00:03:02,500 Speaker 8: economy to the level of yields, is that something that 66 00:03:02,540 --> 00:03:04,720 Speaker 8: we can kind of wrap our arms around and get 67 00:03:04,820 --> 00:03:06,519 Speaker 8: used to and see in other countries? 68 00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:10,660 Speaker 2: Well, when it comes to the U.S., one of my 69 00:03:10,700 --> 00:03:13,780 Speaker 2: guideposts for trying to figure out where bond yields should 70 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:16,530 Speaker 2: be is to look at the growth rate of nominal GDP. 71 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:19,570 Speaker 2: And the growth rate of nominal GDP right now is 72 00:03:19,570 --> 00:03:23,430 Speaker 2: 6.3 percent. We're below that at, well, last year there 73 00:03:23,450 --> 00:03:27,450 Speaker 2: were 5.19 percent. I would say that if we got 74 00:03:27,510 --> 00:03:30,090 Speaker 2: anywhere close to that, I'd worry. But right now, it 75 00:03:30,970 --> 00:03:32,150 Speaker 2: looks like normal for longer. 76 00:03:32,490 --> 00:03:35,120 Speaker 6: Ed Yardeni with the Yardeni Research. Again, the research I 77 00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 6: can't say enough about his daily essay. Look for that 78 00:03:39,420 --> 00:03:42,500 Speaker 6: at Yardeni Research. We protect the copyright of all of 79 00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:45,780 Speaker 6: our guests. So I finished last night the Wigglesworth, a 80 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:49,570 Speaker 6: fabulous debt. And like Sidney Homer shows up on page 81 00:03:49,570 --> 00:03:52,420 Speaker 6: 29 here, Seema Shaw's in there at the end of 82 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:52,660 Speaker 6: the book. 83 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 4: I love Seema. 84 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:54,740 Speaker 5: As well, Mary. 85 00:03:54,500 --> 00:03:59,710 Speaker 6: Child shows up on page 372. Yardenny is in the prologue. 86 00:03:59,840 --> 00:04:04,230 Speaker 6: He shows up on Roman numeral XII, and Robin put 87 00:04:04,270 --> 00:04:07,530 Speaker 6: you in early and often because of this great phrase, 88 00:04:07,610 --> 00:04:13,020 Speaker 6: bon vigilantes. I would suggest there's a ginormous consensus now. 89 00:04:13,310 --> 00:04:16,620 Speaker 5: That the vigilantes are out there. What is the level 90 00:04:16,839 --> 00:04:19,000 Speaker 5: of our vigilantiness right now? 91 00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:24,099 Speaker 2: Well, right now they're sightseeing in France. That's where the 92 00:04:24,140 --> 00:04:24,659 Speaker 2: bond vigilantes. 93 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:24,920 Speaker 5: But. 94 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:27,099 Speaker 6: Even France has come in a little bit off the 95 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:29,120 Speaker 6: Le Pen speech. 96 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:31,159 Speaker 8: And you haven't really seen the contagion into Italy. 97 00:04:31,300 --> 00:04:31,960 Speaker 5: Exactly. 98 00:04:31,980 --> 00:04:34,919 Speaker 2: Look, the bond vigilantes are not the only players in 99 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 2: the bond market. There's central banks, there's ministries of finance... 100 00:04:40,870 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 2: foreign investors, there's a whole bunch of players And I 101 00:04:44,550 --> 00:04:47,150 Speaker 2: think what we're seeing here is that there's a lot 102 00:04:47,190 --> 00:04:51,089 Speaker 2: of cash out there that is finding that these bond 103 00:04:51,150 --> 00:04:53,089 Speaker 2: yield levels are very, very attractive. 104 00:04:53,410 --> 00:04:55,369 Speaker 6: And, Damian, the way I would link in your work 105 00:04:55,589 --> 00:05:00,100 Speaker 6: with Dr. Yordeni's work is this bond vigilante fear. Oh, no, 106 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:03,120 Speaker 6: Japan's bringing all their money back to Tokyo. 107 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:03,779 Speaker 5: Discuss. 108 00:05:03,900 --> 00:05:05,780 Speaker 8: Well, I'm so happy you brought up Japan because, you know, 109 00:05:05,820 --> 00:05:09,350 Speaker 8: I missed Ed Yordeni's Monday live webcast, and he was 110 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:12,979 Speaker 8: talking about the parallels between Japan and, of course— China. So, Ed, 111 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:15,250 Speaker 8: for our audience, please, if you could just enlighten us, 112 00:05:15,290 --> 00:05:17,430 Speaker 8: tell us a little bit about the similarities and what 113 00:05:17,470 --> 00:05:20,630 Speaker 8: makes this time, I guess, a little bit more worth watching. 114 00:05:21,390 --> 00:05:24,589 Speaker 2: Well, everybody is kind of focused on the bond markets 115 00:05:24,610 --> 00:05:27,770 Speaker 2: around the world. They should also focus on what's going 116 00:05:27,830 --> 00:05:30,550 Speaker 2: on in the bond market in China. Their yield is 117 00:05:30,610 --> 00:05:35,880 Speaker 2: actually historically low, you know, extremely low. They've got deflation 118 00:05:35,940 --> 00:05:41,110 Speaker 2: over there. And there is a sense of the Japanese 119 00:05:41,190 --> 00:05:48,090 Speaker 2: model kind of creeping into China. China just recently restructured 120 00:05:48,150 --> 00:05:51,010 Speaker 2: its banks. It took all of its rural banks and 121 00:05:51,070 --> 00:05:54,470 Speaker 2: folded them into large banks. That doesn't mean that that 122 00:05:54,490 --> 00:05:58,010 Speaker 2: solves the problem. There's still all those bad loans. They 123 00:05:58,050 --> 00:06:01,730 Speaker 2: just can't get their act together on just restructuring their 124 00:06:01,990 --> 00:06:04,349 Speaker 2: credit system. That's really what they need to do. But 125 00:06:04,470 --> 00:06:06,250 Speaker 2: they just They haven't done it. 126 00:06:06,570 --> 00:06:08,830 Speaker 8: Ed, do you believe the loan data that you're getting 127 00:06:08,870 --> 00:06:10,990 Speaker 8: out of China, or even for that matter, M2 and 128 00:06:11,029 --> 00:06:13,789 Speaker 8: monetary supply data? Because, you know, I have been crunching 129 00:06:13,830 --> 00:06:16,270 Speaker 8: some numbers lately with some friends at AidData, and some 130 00:06:16,290 --> 00:06:17,710 Speaker 8: of the things that we're coming up with are just 131 00:06:17,750 --> 00:06:20,669 Speaker 8: incredible about the bilateral lending to emerging market countries. 132 00:06:20,690 --> 00:06:22,630 Speaker 4: I think it's way, way underreported. 133 00:06:22,650 --> 00:06:23,210 Speaker 6: Whoa, whoa, whoa. 134 00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:25,040 Speaker 5: Are you writing your morning note? 135 00:06:26,020 --> 00:06:28,320 Speaker 4: No, no, no. I'm just teasing. 136 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:29,359 Speaker 5: It's not writing. 137 00:06:29,580 --> 00:06:30,560 Speaker 4: I'm learning. I'm teasing. 138 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:32,680 Speaker 8: But talk to us a little bit about how you 139 00:06:32,720 --> 00:06:34,420 Speaker 8: look at that data coming out of China. I mean, 140 00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:35,159 Speaker 8: is it to be trusted? 141 00:06:36,110 --> 00:06:40,070 Speaker 2: Well, you know, any data that supports my story is 142 00:06:40,130 --> 00:06:45,020 Speaker 2: good data. And I think it supports the story that 143 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:49,460 Speaker 2: consumers aren't spending. Retail sales growth is absolutely zero in 144 00:06:49,500 --> 00:06:52,470 Speaker 2: both nominal and real terms. There is a lot of 145 00:06:52,529 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 2: signs of deflation. Home prices are still falling. I mean, 146 00:06:56,800 --> 00:06:59,380 Speaker 2: it looks pretty bad, which is consistent with the view 147 00:06:59,760 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 2: I have. So I have no problems with the data. 148 00:07:01,980 --> 00:07:03,919 Speaker 2: I mean, not only that, but the bank loan data 149 00:07:03,980 --> 00:07:05,680 Speaker 2: is like, what, $ 40 trillion? 150 00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:06,559 Speaker 4: Yes, I know. 151 00:07:06,660 --> 00:07:10,250 Speaker 2: And ours is about, what, $ 12, $ 13 trillion. So their 152 00:07:10,490 --> 00:07:12,330 Speaker 2: credit system is basically out of control. 153 00:07:12,790 --> 00:07:15,210 Speaker 6: And Joe Denny with us, folks, for a lovely conversation 154 00:07:15,230 --> 00:07:18,050 Speaker 6: this morning. Joe Denny at Research. We welcome all of 155 00:07:18,090 --> 00:07:21,030 Speaker 6: you the way you choose to listen to us. Major 156 00:07:21,110 --> 00:07:26,180 Speaker 6: shout-out on Bloomberg Podcasts. Thank you so much. for your support. 157 00:07:26,220 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 6: They're growing each and every day. And I want you 158 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,600 Speaker 6: to discuss what we started the show with this morning. 159 00:07:34,020 --> 00:07:38,030 Speaker 6: My research essay of the year is Rob Arnott, Cam 160 00:07:38,070 --> 00:07:41,730 Speaker 6: Harvey down at Duke in their team saying, get back 161 00:07:41,790 --> 00:07:45,070 Speaker 6: to your Denny fundamentals where you look at the income 162 00:07:45,130 --> 00:07:50,489 Speaker 6: statement and stop looking at price ratios. For example, Gross 163 00:07:50,550 --> 00:07:54,580 Speaker 6: profit underneath revenue is a top-line profit. The banks have 164 00:07:54,700 --> 00:08:00,280 Speaker 6: never been this gross profit rich now. With nominal GDP, 165 00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:04,900 Speaker 6: if it comes down, do we risk diminishing gross profit? 166 00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:10,190 Speaker 2: Well, the assumption, the question is really in the assumption 167 00:08:10,230 --> 00:08:13,850 Speaker 2: of nominal GDP. I could see inflation moderating over the 168 00:08:13,890 --> 00:08:17,130 Speaker 2: next few years. I think we are in the roaring 169 00:08:17,150 --> 00:08:23,710 Speaker 2: 2020s with a a technology-led productivity boom, if that's the case. 170 00:08:23,850 --> 00:08:27,929 Speaker 2: And if inflation moderates, we should actually have more real growth. 171 00:08:28,470 --> 00:08:32,630 Speaker 2: And so nominal growth would still stay quite good. But 172 00:08:32,650 --> 00:08:36,430 Speaker 2: there's no doubt that we're in a earnings boom. And 173 00:08:36,470 --> 00:08:39,790 Speaker 2: that's partly because revenues have been very strong. As a 174 00:08:39,809 --> 00:08:42,969 Speaker 2: matter of fact, the global economy has been remarkably resilient 175 00:08:43,370 --> 00:08:47,210 Speaker 2: to all the shocks it's faced as we see in 176 00:08:47,230 --> 00:08:47,870 Speaker 2: S & P 500 revenues. 177 00:08:48,210 --> 00:08:50,750 Speaker 6: So if Jamie Dimon's lucky and gets a cup of 178 00:08:50,809 --> 00:08:53,930 Speaker 6: coffee with you, I mean, I can see Yardeni at 179 00:08:53,970 --> 00:08:54,990 Speaker 6: daily provisions. 180 00:08:56,230 --> 00:08:57,670 Speaker 2: I got a tour of his new building. 181 00:08:57,750 --> 00:08:58,350 Speaker 4: It's awesome. 182 00:08:58,370 --> 00:09:03,130 Speaker 5: Did you see the Jalen Brunson jersey? Yeah, it's unbelievable. Right. 183 00:09:03,380 --> 00:09:06,920 Speaker 5: I mean, he's an intern over there for the next season. 184 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:11,640 Speaker 6: And I'm looking at the great fear of everyone is 185 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:15,160 Speaker 6: we don't know the X axis. Have you changed your 186 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 6: study of how far out there is out there in 187 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:20,900 Speaker 6: these tumultuous times? 188 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:27,580 Speaker 2: Well, right now I'm working on the 2020s. I may 189 00:09:27,620 --> 00:09:30,949 Speaker 2: conclude that we're going to have the roaring 2030s if 190 00:09:31,350 --> 00:09:34,450 Speaker 2: this works out. However, the problem with the 2030s is 191 00:09:34,490 --> 00:09:37,390 Speaker 2: they rhyme with the 1930s. And that was a period 192 00:09:37,429 --> 00:09:40,510 Speaker 2: of horrible geopolitical crisis that led to World War II. 193 00:09:41,150 --> 00:09:44,490 Speaker 2: And the geopolitics environment doesn't look very healthy out there. 194 00:09:45,250 --> 00:09:47,839 Speaker 4: That's for sure. So there are definitely things to worry about. 195 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 4: There always are. 196 00:09:48,660 --> 00:09:51,780 Speaker 2: A stock market always seems to climb a wall of worry, 197 00:09:51,820 --> 00:09:52,380 Speaker 2: as they say. 198 00:09:52,620 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 5: David and Seth are with Ed, you're doing. 199 00:09:54,570 --> 00:09:56,150 Speaker 8: Ed, we're spending a lot of time talking about the 200 00:09:56,190 --> 00:09:58,450 Speaker 8: level of growth and how the markets are really just growing. 201 00:09:58,510 --> 00:10:01,000 Speaker 8: It's gangbusters out there. But at Central Bank, we globally, 202 00:10:01,020 --> 00:10:05,060 Speaker 8: you know, we're getting inflation prints each and every day, Germany, Italy, Spain, China, 203 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:06,480 Speaker 8: I mean, the U.S. 204 00:10:06,500 --> 00:10:06,820 Speaker 4: Tomorrow. 205 00:10:07,500 --> 00:10:09,400 Speaker 8: Talk to us about break-evens. Talk to us about the 206 00:10:09,500 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 8: role of inflation in this market. I mean, we know 207 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:14,100 Speaker 8: about affordability issues here in the U.S. Do you see 208 00:10:14,140 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 8: that being a risk to, you know, to your forecast 209 00:10:16,900 --> 00:10:17,440 Speaker 8: for equities here? 210 00:10:17,980 --> 00:10:22,860 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, inflation is always an issue for forecasters. 211 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:26,470 Speaker 2: If you get it right, then you're going to get 212 00:10:26,510 --> 00:10:29,220 Speaker 2: your portfolio working for you. 213 00:10:29,250 --> 00:10:32,750 Speaker 4: If you get it wrong, you're going to lose money. 214 00:10:33,390 --> 00:10:37,199 Speaker 2: I kind of have to stick my base case, of course, 215 00:10:37,250 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 2: is that productivity, which is right now growing around 2%, 216 00:10:41,520 --> 00:10:43,380 Speaker 2: is going to go to 3% to 4%, which sounds 217 00:10:43,400 --> 00:10:47,949 Speaker 2: somewhat delusional, but If you look at previous productivity booms, 218 00:10:48,429 --> 00:10:51,370 Speaker 2: that's par for the course. And this productivity boom probably 219 00:10:51,410 --> 00:10:53,090 Speaker 2: has more going for it than previous ones. 220 00:10:53,790 --> 00:10:54,309 Speaker 3: Wow. Wow. 221 00:10:54,350 --> 00:10:57,130 Speaker 8: I mean, the exponential impact of 3% to 4% productivity growth, 222 00:10:57,170 --> 00:11:00,069 Speaker 8: if you just do your little nominal GDP count, Tom, 223 00:11:00,210 --> 00:11:02,450 Speaker 8: that's not nothing, as they like to say. 224 00:11:02,490 --> 00:11:03,460 Speaker 5: No, it's not nothing. 225 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:09,150 Speaker 6: Well, what's the biggest misconception here? you see in what 226 00:11:09,170 --> 00:11:11,040 Speaker 6: I'm going to call the Barron's crowd. I love to 227 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:13,540 Speaker 6: read Barron's and the spirit of it and this. 228 00:11:13,580 --> 00:11:13,959 Speaker 4: This, this. 229 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:18,430 Speaker 6: What's the biggest misconception of the short-termism out there right now? 230 00:11:18,640 --> 00:11:22,000 Speaker 2: Well, I think a lot of people, with all due 231 00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:27,150 Speaker 2: respect to what you do, read the headlines in the media. 232 00:11:27,210 --> 00:11:29,790 Speaker 2: The headlines always seem to be in the financial press 233 00:11:29,870 --> 00:11:33,790 Speaker 2: about Washington. It's always about monetary and fiscal policies. We're 234 00:11:33,809 --> 00:11:38,640 Speaker 2: totally obsessed with the Fed and now... Scott Besant at 235 00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:39,340 Speaker 2: the Treasury. 236 00:11:39,420 --> 00:11:40,860 Speaker 5: I call it the parlor game. 237 00:11:41,380 --> 00:11:44,059 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I guess what I've learned over the years 238 00:11:44,080 --> 00:11:45,600 Speaker 2: that I've been doing this for a while is that 239 00:11:45,640 --> 00:11:48,660 Speaker 2: it's amazing how well the U.S. economy and stock market 240 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:52,839 Speaker 2: do despite Washington. That's kind of my mantra. I keep 241 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:55,600 Speaker 2: repeating it to myself when I read these very depressing 242 00:11:55,860 --> 00:11:59,570 Speaker 2: headlines of how Washington is getting all of our policies 243 00:11:59,640 --> 00:12:00,300 Speaker 2: all screwed up. 244 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:02,640 Speaker 8: I mean, you know, Dirk Willer of Citigroup would agree 245 00:12:02,660 --> 00:12:04,660 Speaker 8: with you. I mean, he says that forget about the 246 00:12:04,700 --> 00:12:07,270 Speaker 8: noise of geopolitics. The only real factor that has had 247 00:12:07,330 --> 00:12:11,390 Speaker 8: any sort of durability on growth is oil. So I 248 00:12:11,470 --> 00:12:13,250 Speaker 8: ask you, you know, we're in an environment and people 249 00:12:13,390 --> 00:12:16,429 Speaker 8: are equating what's going on to geopolitics, to Ukraine, to Iran, etc., 250 00:12:17,020 --> 00:12:18,500 Speaker 8: But really, it's about the price of oil. So is 251 00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:21,600 Speaker 8: this sort of, is this an oil crisis? Or I mean, 252 00:12:21,620 --> 00:12:23,640 Speaker 8: has the market just looked through that, been able to 253 00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:26,830 Speaker 8: exhibit enough resilience to not even worry about it? I mean, 254 00:12:26,850 --> 00:12:27,670 Speaker 8: are you concerned at all? 255 00:12:28,150 --> 00:12:31,110 Speaker 2: Well, I would generalize my mantra to say it's amazing 256 00:12:31,150 --> 00:12:34,329 Speaker 2: how well the U.S. economy global economy and stock markets 257 00:12:34,370 --> 00:12:37,780 Speaker 2: have done despite the latest spike in oil prices. We 258 00:12:37,820 --> 00:12:41,640 Speaker 2: had a spike in 2022, and everybody worried that that 259 00:12:41,700 --> 00:12:45,560 Speaker 2: would create a recession along with Fed tightening. We had 260 00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:48,850 Speaker 2: a bear market, and then everybody realizes, like, wait a second, 261 00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:51,870 Speaker 2: this is an amazing opportunity to buy stocks because there 262 00:12:51,929 --> 00:12:54,950 Speaker 2: is no recession. We had the most widely anticipated recession 263 00:12:54,970 --> 00:12:57,510 Speaker 2: of all times that wasn't happening, and that was my 264 00:12:57,550 --> 00:12:58,230 Speaker 2: call back then. 265 00:12:59,090 --> 00:13:03,170 Speaker 6: Over the arc of Robin Wigglesworth's book, the fancy guy's changes. 266 00:13:03,530 --> 00:13:06,230 Speaker 6: You know, he has a whole chapter on Louis Ranieri 267 00:13:06,890 --> 00:13:08,970 Speaker 6: and Michael Milken and others and high. 268 00:13:08,830 --> 00:13:11,390 Speaker 5: Yield and LBOs and that. And then we get to 269 00:13:11,450 --> 00:13:12,689 Speaker 5: the derivative business. 270 00:13:13,070 --> 00:13:15,450 Speaker 6: And I would suggest with respect to the street today, 271 00:13:15,830 --> 00:13:17,630 Speaker 6: everybody's focused on hedge funds. 272 00:13:17,750 --> 00:13:19,840 Speaker 5: CTAs, leveraging that. 273 00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:23,540 Speaker 6: Are there leverage out there that could upset the apple cart? 274 00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:26,180 Speaker 6: Is there a shadow leverage you're concerned with? 275 00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:27,839 Speaker 4: I mean, that's where all the trouble usually starts. 276 00:13:27,900 --> 00:13:30,079 Speaker 2: It starts in the credit markets, not so much in 277 00:13:30,100 --> 00:13:33,959 Speaker 2: the stock market, or at least We have to recognize 278 00:13:34,020 --> 00:13:40,110 Speaker 2: that the credit markets is sort of the area where 279 00:13:40,130 --> 00:13:44,170 Speaker 2: you get your speculative excesses. And certainly in the AI field, 280 00:13:44,230 --> 00:13:49,010 Speaker 2: there's speculative excesses going on with all the financing that's 281 00:13:49,030 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 2: happening there. Look, the difference between the great financial crisis 282 00:13:54,820 --> 00:13:57,080 Speaker 2: and the current environment is I don't think that the 283 00:13:57,120 --> 00:14:00,520 Speaker 2: banks are as involved in all the excesses as they 284 00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:03,900 Speaker 2: were back then. So we had systematic risk back then, 285 00:14:03,940 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 2: and we saw it big time in the great financial crisis. 286 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:10,240 Speaker 2: This time around, let's say something blows up in the 287 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:15,829 Speaker 2: AI field. I think you'll see the AI community rushing 288 00:14:15,910 --> 00:14:20,070 Speaker 2: to shore the problem up. And by the way, Washington 289 00:14:20,090 --> 00:14:22,830 Speaker 2: is basically, you know, tight at the hip to the 290 00:14:23,730 --> 00:14:25,990 Speaker 2: AI industry. And I think you'll see a lot of 291 00:14:26,590 --> 00:14:30,130 Speaker 2: moves to support any Any excesses that blow up. 292 00:14:30,150 --> 00:14:31,350 Speaker 5: I'm going to get one more in here. 293 00:14:31,390 --> 00:14:35,090 Speaker 6: We celebrate Michael Woodward at Princeton and, of course, always 294 00:14:35,150 --> 00:14:39,220 Speaker 6: at Columbia in his Nobel Prize. He would make real 295 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:43,420 Speaker 6: clear that certitude doesn't work. The hallmark of what he 296 00:14:43,480 --> 00:14:49,560 Speaker 6: and John Taylor did within Taylor's rule in Woodward's respect 297 00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:53,660 Speaker 6: for uncertainty. Should the dots maintain or should we get 298 00:14:53,870 --> 00:14:56,869 Speaker 6: rid of the dots and have a more uncertain dialogue? 299 00:14:57,700 --> 00:15:00,140 Speaker 4: Are we talking about the dot plot? Dot plot, of course. Oh, please, 300 00:15:00,180 --> 00:15:01,060 Speaker 4: don't take it away. 301 00:15:01,260 --> 00:15:03,630 Speaker 5: What do we have to do, Tom? I need it. 302 00:15:03,740 --> 00:15:04,119 Speaker 5: I need it. 303 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:08,640 Speaker 4: I'm a content provider. I need something to write about. 304 00:15:08,730 --> 00:15:10,710 Speaker 5: I'll listen to him. 305 00:15:10,830 --> 00:15:13,390 Speaker 4: I'm biased. I like the dot plot. It's kind of fun. 306 00:15:13,410 --> 00:15:13,830 Speaker 4: I like the dot plot. 307 00:15:13,850 --> 00:15:14,710 Speaker 5: I'll take it as much as I want. Is it 308 00:15:14,730 --> 00:15:17,450 Speaker 5: of use in gaining out interest rate strategy? 309 00:15:17,730 --> 00:15:22,620 Speaker 2: Look, any way you look at it, Kevin Warsh, Kent Muzzle, 310 00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:26,010 Speaker 2: his colleagues, they're They're going to give speeches. They're going to, 311 00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:28,200 Speaker 2: you know, I mean, if we don't have the dot 312 00:15:28,220 --> 00:15:31,400 Speaker 2: plot exactly on a chart, we're going to be able 313 00:15:31,420 --> 00:15:33,900 Speaker 2: to figure out the dot plot just by listening to 314 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:34,400 Speaker 2: the speeches. 315 00:15:34,980 --> 00:15:38,280 Speaker 6: Ed Yardeni, thank you so much, particularly there on dental 316 00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:41,680 Speaker 6: work on various and sundry dogs as well. 317 00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:43,230 Speaker 5: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research. 318 00:15:45,140 --> 00:15:49,310 Speaker 6: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 319 00:15:56,570 --> 00:16:00,170 Speaker 3: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 320 00:16:00,250 --> 00:16:02,310 Speaker 3: weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. 321 00:16:02,370 --> 00:16:02,770 Speaker 1: Eastern. 322 00:16:02,870 --> 00:16:06,180 Speaker 3: Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 323 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 3: Business app. 324 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:08,720 Speaker 1: Or watch us live on YouTube. 325 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:14,070 Speaker 6: Lori Kalvasina in awe over the brilliance, and she joins us. 326 00:16:14,750 --> 00:16:19,710 Speaker 6: right now across America, across Canada as well with RBC 327 00:16:19,770 --> 00:16:23,130 Speaker 6: Capital Markets. Laurie, I know you're not on speaking terms 328 00:16:23,150 --> 00:16:26,440 Speaker 6: with Amy Wu Silverman, but when you take the derivative 329 00:16:26,580 --> 00:16:31,420 Speaker 6: brilliance of Amy Wu Silverman, how do you fold the 330 00:16:31,620 --> 00:16:36,250 Speaker 6: quiet and then beneath it, the storm of dynamics right 331 00:16:36,290 --> 00:16:38,750 Speaker 6: now over to conventional investment? 332 00:16:40,490 --> 00:16:42,870 Speaker 7: So, well, first of all, we are on speaking terms. 333 00:16:42,930 --> 00:16:46,060 Speaker 7: Second of all, on the $ 5 pumpkins, I would gladly 334 00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 7: pay up if someone would carve it for me, the 335 00:16:48,340 --> 00:16:51,780 Speaker 7: go-go services economy. But look, I would say on your 336 00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:54,860 Speaker 7: question on the derivative side, when Amy and I go 337 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:57,420 Speaker 7: into meetings together, and we do like to do this 338 00:16:57,500 --> 00:17:00,120 Speaker 7: on a regular basis, she's really more sort of the 339 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:04,090 Speaker 7: shorter term, the tactics. She talks a lot about potholes. 340 00:17:04,470 --> 00:17:08,170 Speaker 7: I'm sort of kind of maybe a A little bit 341 00:17:08,210 --> 00:17:10,550 Speaker 7: bigger picture perspective, work a little more closely with the 342 00:17:10,590 --> 00:17:13,100 Speaker 7: long onlys. But the one thing that we talk about 343 00:17:13,300 --> 00:17:15,980 Speaker 7: a lot when we go into meetings together is this 344 00:17:16,220 --> 00:17:18,919 Speaker 7: one table where we call it our four tiers of 345 00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:22,980 Speaker 7: fear that identifies how bad those potholes that Amy's trying 346 00:17:23,030 --> 00:17:26,310 Speaker 7: to help her clients navigate could potentially get. And so 347 00:17:26,330 --> 00:17:28,330 Speaker 7: if you think about my own market call right now, 348 00:17:28,390 --> 00:17:30,850 Speaker 7: we've been looking for a 5% to 10% drawdown, what 349 00:17:30,869 --> 00:17:33,770 Speaker 7: we call a tier one sort of pullback in the 350 00:17:33,910 --> 00:17:36,230 Speaker 7: S & P 500. That could take you to kind 351 00:17:36,570 --> 00:17:38,609 Speaker 7: of 7,000, 7,400. We get these all the time. They 352 00:17:38,630 --> 00:17:41,869 Speaker 7: don't feel good while they happen. For tier two, you 353 00:17:41,890 --> 00:17:45,790 Speaker 7: would really worry more about recession risk rising, something new 354 00:17:45,890 --> 00:17:48,870 Speaker 7: on the scene, fears of spiraling out of control. Tier 355 00:17:48,890 --> 00:17:51,730 Speaker 7: three is a recession. And I'll tell you, right now, 356 00:17:51,830 --> 00:17:53,790 Speaker 7: I don't sort of see the seeds for that tier 357 00:17:53,810 --> 00:17:57,210 Speaker 7: two kind of pullback. But that's really where we intersect 358 00:17:57,230 --> 00:17:59,189 Speaker 7: when we go out together is, you know, trying to 359 00:17:59,230 --> 00:18:02,080 Speaker 7: sort of, you know, kind of look at what those potholes, 360 00:18:02,140 --> 00:18:04,379 Speaker 7: how bad they could potentially get if they show up. 361 00:18:04,500 --> 00:18:06,480 Speaker 8: Well, Tom, you know, Lori refers to that Tier 1 362 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:09,200 Speaker 8: 5 to 10 pullback as a garden variety pullback. I 363 00:18:09,220 --> 00:18:11,959 Speaker 8: don't know what garden you're, you know, anyway. So this 364 00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:13,179 Speaker 8: is what I have to ask you, Lori. I read 365 00:18:13,220 --> 00:18:15,540 Speaker 8: your notes all the time. Unbelievable that you just pointed 366 00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:18,419 Speaker 8: out we are just coming off two quarters of huge 367 00:18:18,510 --> 00:18:20,590 Speaker 8: beats on S & P earnings, right? So as we 368 00:18:20,630 --> 00:18:22,689 Speaker 8: enter this third quarter, to me, it seems like sentiment's 369 00:18:22,710 --> 00:18:24,359 Speaker 8: a little bit weak. You know, people are kind of 370 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:26,380 Speaker 8: sitting on their hands a bit here. Yet, I mean, 371 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:28,360 Speaker 8: the last two quarters have just been blowouts. I mean, 372 00:18:28,540 --> 00:18:29,540 Speaker 8: can we expect more of the same? 373 00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:33,220 Speaker 7: You know, it's a great question. And, you know, I 374 00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:35,410 Speaker 7: sort of put the weekly together this week. I come 375 00:18:35,450 --> 00:18:37,670 Speaker 7: off the heels of some marketing in Canada last week. 376 00:18:37,790 --> 00:18:39,910 Speaker 7: And I found when we were talking to people about 377 00:18:39,950 --> 00:18:42,030 Speaker 7: market risks, the ones they really want to home in 378 00:18:42,130 --> 00:18:44,330 Speaker 7: on is that, you know, potential, you know, kind of 379 00:18:44,369 --> 00:18:46,270 Speaker 7: mini pothole that we might get if we need to 380 00:18:46,330 --> 00:18:49,760 Speaker 7: pull 2027 EPS forecast down. In my own modeling, I've 381 00:18:49,780 --> 00:18:52,439 Speaker 7: been baking on a 10% haircut forecast. And, you know, 382 00:18:52,740 --> 00:18:55,300 Speaker 7: I sort of my my real issue, right, has been 383 00:18:55,340 --> 00:18:57,800 Speaker 7: we've gone through the Iran war. Companies didn't say much 384 00:18:57,859 --> 00:19:00,680 Speaker 7: about it in this last reporting season, two quarters ago 385 00:19:01,460 --> 00:19:03,500 Speaker 7: in the one reporting season. They're like, oh, we think 386 00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:06,790 Speaker 7: this could be over by the summer. We've got inventories, hedges. 387 00:19:07,109 --> 00:19:08,610 Speaker 7: You know, we think we can work through this for 388 00:19:08,650 --> 00:19:09,430 Speaker 7: a couple of quarters. 389 00:19:09,630 --> 00:19:11,310 Speaker 9: And you know what, guys? It's time. 390 00:19:11,550 --> 00:19:13,430 Speaker 7: Like they kind of got off. I think the sell 391 00:19:13,450 --> 00:19:15,990 Speaker 7: side analyst community, frankly, didn't do a great job of 392 00:19:16,050 --> 00:19:18,850 Speaker 7: pushing companies on war impacts in the last reporting season. 393 00:19:18,930 --> 00:19:21,840 Speaker 7: I hope they do more this time around. But I 394 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:23,699 Speaker 7: think that whether you get it this reporting season or 395 00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:26,280 Speaker 7: next reporting season, you're going to have to start soon 396 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:29,600 Speaker 7: to see companies baking in the idea of a longer conflict. Now, 397 00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:32,260 Speaker 7: does that mean they can't manage through it decently? No, 398 00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:34,440 Speaker 7: but it does mean that hedges have to be reset 399 00:19:34,540 --> 00:19:37,619 Speaker 7: at different levels, that inventories have to be replenished at 400 00:19:37,660 --> 00:19:39,590 Speaker 7: higher prices. And so you do need to start to 401 00:19:39,609 --> 00:19:42,210 Speaker 7: factor those things into your outlook at some point in time. 402 00:19:42,730 --> 00:19:43,669 Speaker 7: And if you go back to 2018, 2019 and 2022, 2023, 403 00:19:43,650 --> 00:19:50,359 Speaker 7: first tariff episode, Russia-Ukraine war, the 2018 and 2021 two 404 00:19:50,780 --> 00:19:53,460 Speaker 7: estimates came in pretty much where consensus thought they would 405 00:19:53,500 --> 00:19:57,820 Speaker 7: before the conflict started. But 2019, 2023 estimates were worked 406 00:19:57,859 --> 00:20:00,820 Speaker 7: down pretty steadily since the summer prior to when those 407 00:20:00,859 --> 00:20:04,290 Speaker 7: years started. So we think the idea is companies can 408 00:20:04,330 --> 00:20:07,350 Speaker 7: manage through anything for a while. At some point, they 409 00:20:07,369 --> 00:20:10,090 Speaker 7: have to take reality into account and start adjusting numbers. 410 00:20:10,490 --> 00:20:12,010 Speaker 8: Laurie, I know you and the team are still bullish 411 00:20:12,109 --> 00:20:15,060 Speaker 8: on the technology sector, but we're getting to a point here. 412 00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:16,859 Speaker 8: I mean, you saw the correction overnight out of Asia. 413 00:20:16,940 --> 00:20:19,400 Speaker 8: I mean, I know one of your investors recently asked, 414 00:20:19,580 --> 00:20:21,860 Speaker 8: what are you looking for in order to tell me 415 00:20:21,980 --> 00:20:24,160 Speaker 8: to rotate from the S & P into the S & 416 00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:26,159 Speaker 8: P equal weight? What are you looking for? What sort 417 00:20:26,180 --> 00:20:28,540 Speaker 8: of signals do you and the team expect to see 418 00:20:28,740 --> 00:20:30,820 Speaker 8: before you kind of pare back your equity exposure or 419 00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:33,119 Speaker 8: at least diversify it across multiple different sectors? 420 00:20:33,140 --> 00:20:35,660 Speaker 7: Well, I'll say I don't really look at the S & 421 00:20:35,380 --> 00:20:37,500 Speaker 7: P equal weight on a regular basis, to be honest. 422 00:20:37,550 --> 00:20:39,889 Speaker 7: But what we do look at is, you know, the 423 00:20:39,930 --> 00:20:41,990 Speaker 7: Russell 2000 is sort of that, you know, kind of 424 00:20:42,030 --> 00:20:44,869 Speaker 7: proxy for the broadening trade, kind of that bellwether. And 425 00:20:44,910 --> 00:20:46,790 Speaker 7: what we're seeing on that side of the equation is 426 00:20:46,810 --> 00:20:49,990 Speaker 7: valuations have kind of gotten down to the Iran war lows, 427 00:20:50,030 --> 00:20:51,950 Speaker 7: but they haven't really gotten washed out. So they're a 428 00:20:51,950 --> 00:20:54,700 Speaker 7: little bit cheap. They're not deeply compelling. We do think 429 00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:57,000 Speaker 7: positioning is much more out of favor. If you look 430 00:20:57,020 --> 00:21:00,520 Speaker 7: at Nasdaq futures positioning, still very crowded. But I think 431 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:03,420 Speaker 7: the real problem for the Russell and I would say 432 00:21:03,500 --> 00:21:06,540 Speaker 7: for those more cyclical parts of the stock market and 433 00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:09,310 Speaker 7: economy are the rate hikes. And, you know, until we 434 00:21:09,350 --> 00:21:11,350 Speaker 7: sort of become convinced that we aren't going to be 435 00:21:11,470 --> 00:21:15,090 Speaker 7: pricing additional hikes. Small caps and kind of that broadening trade, 436 00:21:15,130 --> 00:21:17,830 Speaker 7: I think, could potentially have a problem. Now, that being said, 437 00:21:18,070 --> 00:21:21,510 Speaker 7: the U.S. is looking pricey versus non-U.S., and that's another 438 00:21:21,570 --> 00:21:24,100 Speaker 7: big component of the broadening trade. Not super pricey, but 439 00:21:24,140 --> 00:21:25,719 Speaker 7: we've kind of moved up a teeny tiny little bit 440 00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:28,340 Speaker 7: above the five-year average. You can see the dial turning 441 00:21:28,380 --> 00:21:29,160 Speaker 7: on some of these things. 442 00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:33,500 Speaker 6: Off your 48-page deck, which is brilliant, folks. Get it 443 00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:37,290 Speaker 6: at RBC Capital Markets. What portion of the Russell 2000 444 00:21:37,290 --> 00:21:37,790 Speaker 6: is profitable? 445 00:21:41,310 --> 00:21:44,030 Speaker 7: Yeah, I haven't run those profitability stats in a little while, 446 00:21:44,070 --> 00:21:46,590 Speaker 7: but I have pushed back a little bit, Tom, on 447 00:21:46,650 --> 00:21:49,380 Speaker 7: people who say the Russell has become just a harbinger 448 00:21:49,410 --> 00:21:52,940 Speaker 7: of low quality. If you actually dig into the percent 449 00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:55,480 Speaker 7: of companies that have negative earnings, and last I checked, 450 00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:58,160 Speaker 7: it was extremely high. We had moved up much higher 451 00:21:58,180 --> 00:21:59,959 Speaker 7: than what we had seen in the past. A lot 452 00:21:59,980 --> 00:22:02,010 Speaker 7: of those are biotech companies. A lot of those are 453 00:22:02,030 --> 00:22:06,050 Speaker 7: technology companies. So, yes, they may technically have negative earnings. 454 00:22:06,130 --> 00:22:08,710 Speaker 7: But at the same time, you know, there might be 455 00:22:08,770 --> 00:22:10,950 Speaker 7: a reason as well, right? These may just be very, 456 00:22:11,010 --> 00:22:13,609 Speaker 7: very early stage companies. So I think we have to 457 00:22:13,650 --> 00:22:15,510 Speaker 7: be a little bit careful of kind of painting the 458 00:22:15,530 --> 00:22:18,250 Speaker 7: whole Russell with a broad brush. You've got some early 459 00:22:18,290 --> 00:22:21,389 Speaker 7: stage growthy stuff. You've got some beaten up downtrodden stuff. 460 00:22:21,780 --> 00:22:24,300 Speaker 7: Consumer discretionary stocks, I think, are maybe a little bit, 461 00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:26,160 Speaker 7: you know, kind of lower quality and small cap. 462 00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 5: Thank you for the time, Laurie Calvasina. 463 00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:31,869 Speaker 6: Working with Amy was Silverman on speaking terms at RBC 464 00:22:32,470 --> 00:22:33,450 Speaker 6: Capital Markets. 465 00:22:35,410 --> 00:22:36,010 Speaker 5: Stay with us. 466 00:22:36,310 --> 00:22:39,560 Speaker 6: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 467 00:22:46,820 --> 00:22:50,419 Speaker 3: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 468 00:22:50,500 --> 00:22:52,580 Speaker 3: weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. 469 00:22:52,619 --> 00:22:53,020 Speaker 1: Eastern. 470 00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:56,399 Speaker 3: Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 471 00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:57,030 Speaker 3: Business app. 472 00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:58,950 Speaker 1: Or watch us live on YouTube. 473 00:22:59,430 --> 00:23:02,750 Speaker 4: Ellen Frazier, she. 474 00:23:02,710 --> 00:23:05,290 Speaker 6: Is a really quite expert on the oil dynamics at 475 00:23:05,310 --> 00:23:09,380 Speaker 6: Beringa Partners. We're thrilled she could join this morning. Ellen, 476 00:23:09,450 --> 00:23:13,560 Speaker 6: how do you translate a people on the southern end 477 00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:18,010 Speaker 6: of the Arabian Peninsula... able to hit rockets and take 478 00:23:18,090 --> 00:23:22,420 Speaker 6: out airplanes, people cause death and injury at the Riyadh airport. 479 00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:25,340 Speaker 6: How does a pro like you translate that? 480 00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:28,540 Speaker 5: Yeah, I see it. 481 00:23:28,580 --> 00:23:32,300 Speaker 9: I mean, clearly there is a massive impact on the 482 00:23:32,340 --> 00:23:34,950 Speaker 9: personnel that are in Saudi Arabia. I've actually got friends 483 00:23:35,030 --> 00:23:37,190 Speaker 9: in Saudi Arabia and we've been in contact with them 484 00:23:37,210 --> 00:23:39,169 Speaker 9: and it's quite a scary time for everybody on the 485 00:23:39,210 --> 00:23:44,020 Speaker 9: ground there. Clearly, with my professional hat on, I move 486 00:23:44,100 --> 00:23:47,109 Speaker 9: straight to the energy markets and look at what's happening there. 487 00:23:47,830 --> 00:23:51,310 Speaker 9: And Saudi Arabia actually geographically has an advantage because it 488 00:23:51,350 --> 00:23:55,170 Speaker 9: can ship things through the Strait of Hormuz or it 489 00:23:55,369 --> 00:23:58,910 Speaker 9: can actually go through the Red Sea. Fundamentally, it's under 490 00:23:58,970 --> 00:24:01,649 Speaker 9: attack and actually its refineries are damaged and some of 491 00:24:01,690 --> 00:24:06,560 Speaker 9: its energy infrastructure is damaged. The biggest producer in the 492 00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,540 Speaker 9: Middle East is under a huge amount of threat. And 493 00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:12,440 Speaker 9: that's obviously a major, major problem for global energy markets. 494 00:24:14,140 --> 00:24:17,710 Speaker 6: I look, Alan, at our lack of knowledge. How long 495 00:24:17,750 --> 00:24:21,790 Speaker 6: does it take to rebuild a refinery, whether you're Russia 496 00:24:22,170 --> 00:24:26,190 Speaker 6: dealing with the drones of Ukraine or you're Saudi Arabia 497 00:24:26,270 --> 00:24:29,270 Speaker 6: dealing with, I guess, the drones and missiles of the Houthis? 498 00:24:29,470 --> 00:24:31,429 Speaker 6: How long does it take to fix a refinery? 499 00:24:32,570 --> 00:24:34,030 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a great question. 500 00:24:34,070 --> 00:24:37,090 Speaker 9: And clearly the answer is it depends because it depends 501 00:24:37,150 --> 00:24:39,340 Speaker 9: on how much damage has been done. But if you 502 00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:43,119 Speaker 9: look at, we've got a refinery in the UK, an 503 00:24:43,180 --> 00:24:46,680 Speaker 9: ExxonMobil refinery down in Fawley. And that's on a 10 504 00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:50,380 Speaker 9: week turnaround where they're doing quite a significant refurb that's 505 00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:54,210 Speaker 9: been planned for many, many, many months, if not years. 506 00:24:54,230 --> 00:24:57,710 Speaker 9: They're flying in all sorts of resources, specialist resources, they're 507 00:24:57,730 --> 00:25:00,530 Speaker 9: flying in all sorts of specialist parts. And that is 508 00:25:00,570 --> 00:25:03,420 Speaker 9: a meticulously planned operation. 509 00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:03,960 Speaker 5: To do that piece of work. 510 00:25:04,590 --> 00:25:07,450 Speaker 9: Where you've got a damaged refinery, you've got to assess 511 00:25:07,490 --> 00:25:09,990 Speaker 9: the damage clearly. You've got to get hold of some 512 00:25:10,050 --> 00:25:14,050 Speaker 9: quite specialist parts. And most refineries are actually quite unique. 513 00:25:14,150 --> 00:25:18,030 Speaker 9: They've been custom built effectively really to work with that market. 514 00:25:18,490 --> 00:25:20,350 Speaker 9: You've got to get those parts manufactured. You've got to 515 00:25:20,369 --> 00:25:21,929 Speaker 9: get those parts in place. You've got to get the 516 00:25:21,970 --> 00:25:25,540 Speaker 9: skilled workforce in place. So it's really not a quick 517 00:25:25,619 --> 00:25:29,000 Speaker 9: thing to turn around a refinery where... you know, actually 518 00:25:29,020 --> 00:25:31,790 Speaker 9: you might have damage. And even when you look to 519 00:25:31,850 --> 00:25:33,909 Speaker 9: fix the first bit of damage, as you take to 520 00:25:33,970 --> 00:25:37,140 Speaker 9: pieces that refinery, you may find additional damage as well. 521 00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:40,639 Speaker 9: So not quickly in summary, it's not an easy task. 522 00:25:41,500 --> 00:25:44,060 Speaker 8: Ellen, I heard a lot of shipping companies have had 523 00:25:44,100 --> 00:25:46,740 Speaker 8: their ships turn around. They were heading toward the Gulf 524 00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:49,960 Speaker 8: of Oman, you know, where the ship-to-ship transfers are taking place, right, obviously. 525 00:25:50,100 --> 00:25:52,220 Speaker 8: And they've just turned them around. I mean, talk to 526 00:25:52,260 --> 00:25:54,810 Speaker 8: me about what your expectations are. I mean, better yet, 527 00:25:55,310 --> 00:25:57,970 Speaker 8: how do you even measure, you know, with these ships 528 00:25:57,990 --> 00:26:00,010 Speaker 8: that are turning their transponders off, how do you even 529 00:26:00,109 --> 00:26:02,890 Speaker 8: measure transit through the Strait of Hormuz or, for that matter, 530 00:26:02,910 --> 00:26:05,490 Speaker 8: the Bab al-Mandeb Strait? I mean, it's very, very difficult 531 00:26:05,510 --> 00:26:06,110 Speaker 8: to do, is it not? 532 00:26:07,430 --> 00:26:09,810 Speaker 9: It really is difficult to do. And you can absolutely 533 00:26:09,850 --> 00:26:12,350 Speaker 9: see it from the eyes of the captains there, where 534 00:26:12,410 --> 00:26:15,510 Speaker 9: they are clearly concerned by the safety of all of 535 00:26:15,550 --> 00:26:18,580 Speaker 9: their crew members, the safety of the ship itself and 536 00:26:18,650 --> 00:26:21,300 Speaker 9: the safety of the cargo. And let's be clear, you know, 537 00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:25,760 Speaker 9: if you're carrying crude oil products around the Gulf, you're 538 00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:30,820 Speaker 9: effectively sitting on a very, very flammable piece of equipment. 539 00:26:30,900 --> 00:26:32,280 Speaker 9: And that is very dangerous. 540 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:34,420 Speaker 8: You know, absolutely. 541 00:26:34,460 --> 00:26:37,300 Speaker 9: There are firms like Kepler, for example, who are tracking 542 00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:41,130 Speaker 9: this really closely, not just through all the various different transponders, 543 00:26:41,170 --> 00:26:44,490 Speaker 9: but through satellite imageries and on the ground observations as well. 544 00:26:44,590 --> 00:26:47,490 Speaker 9: So the data that we're getting is reasonable. But you're 545 00:26:47,510 --> 00:26:50,290 Speaker 9: absolutely right. It's a bit of guesswork versus actually all 546 00:26:50,310 --> 00:26:53,060 Speaker 9: of those ships moving backwards and forwards with their transponders on. 547 00:26:53,609 --> 00:26:55,010 Speaker 8: Ellen, last question from me. I mean, what are your 548 00:26:55,050 --> 00:26:57,170 Speaker 8: thoughts on diesel here now with this, you know, Trump 549 00:26:57,190 --> 00:27:00,030 Speaker 8: sort of scaling things back with Russia and diesel production 550 00:27:00,090 --> 00:27:02,030 Speaker 8: coming out of, you know, coming out of Asia? Talk 551 00:27:02,050 --> 00:27:03,669 Speaker 8: to us a little bit about what your expectations are. 552 00:27:03,690 --> 00:27:04,879 Speaker 8: Is it going to move the needle? Is it going 553 00:27:04,890 --> 00:27:07,020 Speaker 8: to help, you know, some of these countries who are really, 554 00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:08,739 Speaker 8: you know, capacity constrained there? 555 00:27:10,060 --> 00:27:14,139 Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, diesel consumption globally is absolutely enormous. You 556 00:27:18,740 --> 00:27:20,420 Speaker 9: Even all of the ships that we're just talking about, 557 00:27:20,460 --> 00:27:23,580 Speaker 9: marine diesel obviously moves them around. So it's the backbone 558 00:27:23,619 --> 00:27:28,220 Speaker 9: of the global economy. Producing diesel, obviously, it's massively impacted 559 00:27:28,270 --> 00:27:31,190 Speaker 9: by what's going on in Russia at the moment. And 560 00:27:31,690 --> 00:27:33,970 Speaker 9: a lot of the diesel refineries, unfortunately, stuck on the 561 00:27:34,010 --> 00:27:35,510 Speaker 9: wrong side of the Strait of Hormuz. 562 00:27:35,530 --> 00:27:37,330 Speaker 8: So we are enormously constrained. 563 00:27:37,910 --> 00:27:39,450 Speaker 5: Much as the volumes. 564 00:27:39,010 --> 00:27:41,370 Speaker 9: That we're talking about in terms of coming through from 565 00:27:41,430 --> 00:27:44,570 Speaker 9: Russia and actually the IEA release that was agreed with 566 00:27:44,590 --> 00:27:48,070 Speaker 9: the G7... They sound like significant volumes, but when you 567 00:27:48,109 --> 00:27:51,649 Speaker 9: put that into context, you know, actually consumption in the 568 00:27:51,790 --> 00:27:54,790 Speaker 9: US and globally is so enormous. You've really got to 569 00:27:54,850 --> 00:27:57,320 Speaker 9: question how much of a difference it's going to make. 570 00:27:57,859 --> 00:28:00,700 Speaker 9: And certainly with the Russian oil, how quickly can that 571 00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:03,580 Speaker 9: get into US markets? And is it going to make 572 00:28:03,619 --> 00:28:06,719 Speaker 9: a difference to US markets before the midterms? You know, 573 00:28:06,740 --> 00:28:08,510 Speaker 9: the reality is pretty limited. 574 00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:11,820 Speaker 6: Ellen, thank you. Thank you so much. Got to run 575 00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:14,270 Speaker 6: to breaking news. Ellen Frazier with us with the brain 576 00:28:14,290 --> 00:28:15,710 Speaker 6: guy on a hugely busy day. 577 00:28:17,609 --> 00:28:18,209 Speaker 5: Stay with us. 578 00:28:18,530 --> 00:28:21,770 Speaker 6: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 579 00:28:29,020 --> 00:28:32,629 Speaker 3: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 580 00:28:32,710 --> 00:28:34,790 Speaker 3: weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. 581 00:28:34,830 --> 00:28:35,230 Speaker 1: Eastern. 582 00:28:35,330 --> 00:28:38,630 Speaker 3: Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 583 00:28:38,650 --> 00:28:39,280 Speaker 3: Business app. 584 00:28:39,470 --> 00:28:41,180 Speaker 1: Or watch us live on YouTube. 585 00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:45,280 Speaker 6: Today, we're going to take a hard turn here with FemBot. 586 00:28:46,150 --> 00:28:51,000 Speaker 6: F-A-M-B-O-T on AI. Tell me what Fambot is, please. 587 00:28:51,500 --> 00:28:53,620 Speaker 10: Hey, thank you for having me. So Fambot is an 588 00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:57,640 Speaker 10: AI chief of staff for parents and families. Parenting today 589 00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:00,400 Speaker 10: has just become out of control, difficult for parents to 590 00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:03,540 Speaker 10: keep up with. It's amazing that everything's gone digital, but 591 00:29:03,580 --> 00:29:06,520 Speaker 10: as a result of that, there's too much for any 592 00:29:07,220 --> 00:29:09,060 Speaker 10: parent to keep up with. For me, with three kids, 593 00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:13,100 Speaker 10: I have 40 emails a week coming in, 12-page newsletters. 594 00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:16,200 Speaker 10: I'm in 10 different WhatsApp groups. I have an app 595 00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:18,720 Speaker 10: for soccer, app for martial arts, and on and on 596 00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:22,660 Speaker 10: and on. And so FanBot is a proactive AI assistant 597 00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:25,800 Speaker 10: that consumes all that information for you and just distorts 598 00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:27,180 Speaker 10: it down to here's what you need to know, here's 599 00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:27,600 Speaker 10: what you need to do. 600 00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:31,530 Speaker 6: The distinction I see is Claude and Muse want to 601 00:29:31,590 --> 00:29:36,090 Speaker 6: get into our computers and into our data life, our 602 00:29:36,130 --> 00:29:40,390 Speaker 6: financial life, our detail life. Does FanBot not detail? that? 603 00:29:41,130 --> 00:29:46,470 Speaker 10: So Fambot just reads family-related emails and communications, and then 604 00:29:46,490 --> 00:29:50,100 Speaker 10: it'll go line by line to memorize every important bit 605 00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:53,280 Speaker 10: of family-related information only, and then distill it down to 606 00:29:53,300 --> 00:29:55,560 Speaker 10: a text message that attends parents every night so that 607 00:29:55,580 --> 00:29:56,520 Speaker 10: they're prepped and ready. 608 00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:56,980 Speaker 4: For the day ahead. 609 00:29:57,560 --> 00:29:59,680 Speaker 8: So my biggest problem, and I have three kids, is 610 00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:02,640 Speaker 8: that I have multiple different emails. I mean, my kids 611 00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:04,900 Speaker 8: have different emails. They have different social addresses. They don't 612 00:30:04,940 --> 00:30:07,440 Speaker 8: want me seeing them. I have firewalls up at Bloomberg. 613 00:30:07,460 --> 00:30:09,320 Speaker 8: They're not going to let me access that. How does 614 00:30:09,380 --> 00:30:13,040 Speaker 8: your app, how does your solution cross over all those 615 00:30:13,100 --> 00:30:14,480 Speaker 8: boundaries and take that all away? 616 00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:18,840 Speaker 10: So we've really gone deep on email, WhatsApp, and calendars 617 00:30:18,860 --> 00:30:21,120 Speaker 10: to start. And then we're adding progressively more of those 618 00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:24,540 Speaker 10: sports app and extracurricular apps that kids use every day, right? 619 00:30:24,620 --> 00:30:27,780 Speaker 10: And then It just brings that information in. You also 620 00:30:27,820 --> 00:30:30,820 Speaker 10: can bring in two parents' information, connect that. Doesn't matter 621 00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:32,940 Speaker 10: if you're on Gmail, if you're on Outlook, if you're 622 00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:35,620 Speaker 10: on Hotmail. So it really has access to all of that. 623 00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:37,060 Speaker 10: And then you could talk to it. You could chat 624 00:30:37,100 --> 00:30:39,070 Speaker 10: with it through text, just like you would a real assistant, 625 00:30:39,510 --> 00:30:42,250 Speaker 10: get those last minute answers that you need. What field 626 00:30:42,310 --> 00:30:44,830 Speaker 10: is the soccer game on? Put that on my calendar 627 00:30:44,850 --> 00:30:46,690 Speaker 10: and it'll go ahead and take these tasks down for you. 628 00:30:46,790 --> 00:30:49,690 Speaker 8: Can I tell Fanbot to unsubscribe from emails? Will it 629 00:30:49,730 --> 00:30:51,260 Speaker 8: do that for me? Does it know how to do that? 630 00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:53,100 Speaker 8: Because I mean, that alone, I mean, it's worth the 631 00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:53,840 Speaker 8: price of admission. 632 00:30:54,740 --> 00:30:57,960 Speaker 10: I not quite yet. At this point, we've been really 633 00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:03,600 Speaker 10: careful to invest in trust in privacy and integrity. And 634 00:31:03,620 --> 00:31:06,870 Speaker 10: we want to make sure it's more additive than subtracting 635 00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:10,750 Speaker 10: anything and ensuring that the parents have complete control over everything. 636 00:31:10,790 --> 00:31:13,490 Speaker 6: David Reich with us. We're going to continue this discussion. 637 00:31:13,550 --> 00:31:17,690 Speaker 6: We are waiting in Washington for a press conference with 638 00:31:17,710 --> 00:31:20,950 Speaker 6: the rest of America curious about a new White House 639 00:31:20,990 --> 00:31:24,200 Speaker 6: press secretary. Katie Zakaria will go to that. When she 640 00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:27,540 Speaker 6: steps up to the lectern, a real curiosity across America 641 00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:32,970 Speaker 6: of a newly minted press secretary as well. My joke 642 00:31:33,110 --> 00:31:38,220 Speaker 6: is Fanba won't slice the oranges for the soccer match. 643 00:31:38,420 --> 00:31:40,260 Speaker 6: I mean, that used to be always the great chore, 644 00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:41,240 Speaker 6: particularly at 4 a.m. 645 00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:41,700 Speaker 1: Mm-hmm. 646 00:31:42,580 --> 00:31:43,180 Speaker 5: Or whatever. 647 00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:45,680 Speaker 8: I might tell the other parents that you will be 648 00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:47,740 Speaker 8: slicing the oranges, even if you don't want to be, 649 00:31:47,780 --> 00:31:48,860 Speaker 8: that's the concern, right? 650 00:31:48,900 --> 00:31:51,340 Speaker 10: I mean, all of a sudden, it will send you 651 00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:53,140 Speaker 10: a reminder though, the day before. 652 00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:56,110 Speaker 6: Oh, good. That's good to know. Where are you on 653 00:31:56,160 --> 00:32:00,230 Speaker 6: barriers to entry? Can't the major players do what you're doing? 654 00:32:00,890 --> 00:32:04,990 Speaker 10: So we've really gone deep on parents specifically in families 655 00:32:05,030 --> 00:32:07,090 Speaker 10: in that use case. So it's not single player. It's 656 00:32:07,110 --> 00:32:10,830 Speaker 10: about having both parents involved. It's about having complicated families 657 00:32:10,850 --> 00:32:13,860 Speaker 10: that are working together. and making sure that we understand 658 00:32:14,020 --> 00:32:16,180 Speaker 10: every little nuance of what parents are going to face. 659 00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:17,820 Speaker 10: We kind of like to think of it as like 660 00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:19,700 Speaker 10: having a friend that has had kids who are a 661 00:32:19,700 --> 00:32:21,280 Speaker 10: year or two older so they could tell you what 662 00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:24,370 Speaker 10: to expect and what's going to happen in a year 663 00:32:24,410 --> 00:32:27,110 Speaker 10: or two ahead or a week ahead so that it 664 00:32:27,130 --> 00:32:28,990 Speaker 10: can be proactive and set you up for success. So 665 00:32:29,090 --> 00:32:32,080 Speaker 10: we really understand the nuance much more deeply than any 666 00:32:32,100 --> 00:32:33,380 Speaker 10: of these general AIs are going to go. 667 00:32:33,780 --> 00:32:35,840 Speaker 8: So it's, so it's machine learning, right? So it's, so 668 00:32:35,860 --> 00:32:38,520 Speaker 8: it's basically, so if you train it properly, you really, 669 00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:40,940 Speaker 8: it's going to answer, you know, your kids' questions for 670 00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:43,180 Speaker 8: you without even consulting, or it has the potential to, 671 00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:45,780 Speaker 8: I guess it would, it would almost predict what your 672 00:32:45,820 --> 00:32:47,740 Speaker 8: response would be. Is that sound about right? Or you 673 00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:48,560 Speaker 8: have data to do that? 674 00:32:48,740 --> 00:32:49,160 Speaker 6: Yeah. 675 00:32:49,220 --> 00:32:51,940 Speaker 10: So the beautiful thing about it is that connecting just 676 00:32:51,980 --> 00:32:54,720 Speaker 10: takes a couple of minutes and then it will learn 677 00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:58,570 Speaker 10: your family. It'll understand your idiosyncrasies. It'll understand your rhythm. 678 00:32:59,050 --> 00:33:01,310 Speaker 10: And then it can be two steps ahead to make 679 00:33:01,350 --> 00:33:02,989 Speaker 10: sure that you're prepped and ready for every day. 680 00:33:03,370 --> 00:33:03,930 Speaker 8: That is awesome. 681 00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:04,720 Speaker 4: That is awesome. 682 00:33:04,740 --> 00:33:06,200 Speaker 8: I don't even have to be a parent anymore, Tom. 683 00:33:06,220 --> 00:33:07,630 Speaker 4: Are you listening to this? This is crazy. 684 00:33:08,180 --> 00:33:10,120 Speaker 10: Well, I mean, just to add one thing on that, 685 00:33:10,180 --> 00:33:12,780 Speaker 10: the point of this is to give parents time back 686 00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:14,840 Speaker 10: so you could actually be present with your kids. We're 687 00:33:14,860 --> 00:33:19,420 Speaker 10: rebuilding an app that's really meant to let you take 688 00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:19,720 Speaker 10: the time. 689 00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:24,160 Speaker 8: Not to, you know, of course, every free moment I'd 690 00:33:24,180 --> 00:33:25,240 Speaker 8: love to spend with my kids. 691 00:33:25,380 --> 00:33:27,510 Speaker 6: David, thank you so much. David Wright with us today 692 00:33:27,550 --> 00:33:34,190 Speaker 6: with Fambot. Greatly appreciate it. Turning schools, emails, newsletters, calendar updates, 693 00:33:34,250 --> 00:33:38,270 Speaker 6: and orange slicing into into a daily and weekly plan. 694 00:33:38,610 --> 00:33:43,540 Speaker 3: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 695 00:33:43,650 --> 00:33:47,920 Speaker 3: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 696 00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:53,360 Speaker 3: 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern, on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, 697 00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:56,740 Speaker 3: and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us 698 00:33:56,850 --> 00:34:00,850 Speaker 3: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. 699 00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:04,660 Speaker 5: Thank you.