1
00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:03,720
Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us proud

2
00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:05,400
Speaker 1: read a lot?

3
00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:13,880
Speaker 2: They're all for running a game so smooth, so sweet.

4
00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:19,200
Speaker 1: Slipid sixteing, just glorious extrocution. Guys, all I'm looking for

5
00:00:19,320 --> 00:00:22,520
Speaker 1: is sixty percent effort, four thousand percent of the time.

6
00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:26,880
Speaker 3: How shut with that shop of blind buddy, And that's

7
00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:29,360
Speaker 3: why you see your beautiful tiers.

8
00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:32,240
Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the most dangerous amount of the planet.

9
00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:35,600
Speaker 3: Nobody picks them.

10
00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:38,720
Speaker 4: Shut up, I'm trying.

11
00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:45,400
Speaker 1: For all it's left too. The wide Eyed.

12
00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:50,000
Speaker 3: Drill pibused, how old Earth pick that happens?

13
00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:55,960
Speaker 4: Hello, and welcome to Wondergul, a new soccer betting podcast

14
00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:58,920
Speaker 4: from the Action Network. I'm your host, Michael Ebaff and

15
00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:01,960
Speaker 4: every Monday and Thursday, I'll be joined by my Action

16
00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:06,000
Speaker 4: colleagues BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo, and together the three

17
00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:10,000
Speaker 4: of us will handicap games across Champions League, Premier League, Bundesliga,

18
00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:12,760
Speaker 4: Siria A, La Liga and legal. I know you're all

19
00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:15,240
Speaker 4: excited to get to some soccer bets, but I have

20
00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:17,520
Speaker 4: some business I need to attend to. Many of you

21
00:01:17,600 --> 00:01:20,440
Speaker 4: are listening to this on the Action Network podcast feed.

22
00:01:20,720 --> 00:01:23,319
Speaker 4: If that's you, and you hate the very idea of

23
00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:24,960
Speaker 4: betting on non American football.

24
00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:27,400
Speaker 2: We get it. You think we're commies. It's okay.

25
00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:29,840
Speaker 4: However, if you've been waiting for us to release a

26
00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:32,440
Speaker 4: show like this for a long time, please, for the

27
00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:35,240
Speaker 4: love of God, go to Apple Podcasts or wherever you

28
00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:37,759
Speaker 4: like to listen and subscribe to the Wonder Goal podcast

29
00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:40,880
Speaker 4: feed right away, like right this instant. This way you

30
00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:44,520
Speaker 4: won't miss future episodes. Bjay, myself and Anthony could keep

31
00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:47,880
Speaker 4: our jobs. And since our boss, longtime media fat cat,

32
00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:50,280
Speaker 4: Chad Millman will try to cancel this show as soon

33
00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:52,760
Speaker 4: as he finds out about it, we need your help desperately.

34
00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:54,800
Speaker 4: So here's what we're gonna do. If you leave us

35
00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:57,400
Speaker 4: a nice review on the Wonder Goal podcast Feed, make

36
00:01:57,400 --> 00:01:59,920
Speaker 4: sure to drop your Twitter handle, you will automatically been

37
00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:02,120
Speaker 4: into a contest to win the soccer jersey of your

38
00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:05,600
Speaker 4: choice from this season. Additionally, if you tweet at Chad

39
00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:08,040
Speaker 4: Billman and tell him not to cancel a Wonder Goal,

40
00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:11,639
Speaker 4: you will also be automatically entered into a separate contest

41
00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:13,919
Speaker 4: to win a soccer jersey of your choice. That's right,

42
00:02:14,200 --> 00:02:17,000
Speaker 4: you have the possibility to win two soccer jerseys if

43
00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:20,160
Speaker 4: you win both contests. Okay, gentlemen, let's get to the

44
00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:23,560
Speaker 4: Champions League. Let's start with the headliner for Tuesday that

45
00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:28,480
Speaker 4: features Liverpool and Atletico Madrid in Spain. Liverpool are road

46
00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:30,880
Speaker 4: favorites plus one twenty five. At let it go plus

47
00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:33,240
Speaker 4: two to twenty five. That draw at plus two thirty.

48
00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:35,000
Speaker 4: This is a three pm kickoff.

49
00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:38,119
Speaker 2: Group b BJ. How do you see it?

50
00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:40,639
Speaker 1: It's a massive class between two really different styles of play.

51
00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:42,359
Speaker 1: I mean, Athletic cum Madrid is obviously going to play

52
00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:45,160
Speaker 1: out of a very defensive style formation, while Liverpool is

53
00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:47,600
Speaker 1: going to play high tempo, high press, heavy metal style

54
00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:49,919
Speaker 1: of football. You know aflety Co. Madrid has been good

55
00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:52,160
Speaker 1: in La Liga this season, seventeen points from their first

56
00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:54,160
Speaker 1: eight matches with a plus four point six to four

57
00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:57,080
Speaker 1: non penalty expected gold differential, but they haven't faced a

58
00:02:57,080 --> 00:02:59,200
Speaker 1: team like Liverpool that's going to press them high up

59
00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:01,200
Speaker 1: the pitch. I mentioned to see how they handle it,

60
00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:03,840
Speaker 1: because if we go back to last Champions League campaign,

61
00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:06,240
Speaker 1: Athletico Madrid was in the same group as Bayern Munich,

62
00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:08,840
Speaker 1: who also played a very similar stylear under Hans Flick

63
00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:11,680
Speaker 1: that Jurgen Klopp plays at Liverpool and Athletic Madrid had

64
00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:14,040
Speaker 1: absolutely no answers for it in the first meeting, getting

65
00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:16,079
Speaker 1: beat four nothing, and in the second meeting, Bayern Munich

66
00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:18,160
Speaker 1: had already clinched the groups, they didn't really care about

67
00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:19,800
Speaker 1: the match and they drew one to one. I do

68
00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:23,040
Speaker 1: have Athletico Madrid projected as a small favorite in this one,

69
00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:26,000
Speaker 1: but I'm not walking in front of Liverpool's offense right now,

70
00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:28,080
Speaker 1: which may be the best in the world. They lead

71
00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:30,600
Speaker 1: the Premier League in non penalty expected goals per match,

72
00:03:30,639 --> 00:03:34,200
Speaker 1: big scoring chances shots per ninety but Liverspool's defense is

73
00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:36,280
Speaker 1: kind of due to concede some goals. You know, they've

74
00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:39,200
Speaker 1: allowed ten point one expected goals through their first eight matches,

75
00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:42,480
Speaker 1: but I've only conceded eight actual goals. And Liverpool did

76
00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:45,000
Speaker 1: just face you know, Porto in their last Champions League match,

77
00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:47,400
Speaker 1: who also plays out of a four four to two formation,

78
00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:50,880
Speaker 1: and they just obliterated them five to one's So I

79
00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:53,640
Speaker 1: do like the over in this match. Athletic Madrid obviously

80
00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:56,160
Speaker 1: improved in the transfer market, bringing in Antoline Griesman back

81
00:03:56,160 --> 00:03:58,240
Speaker 1: to the club, adding him along with Gio Felix and

82
00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:00,640
Speaker 1: Luis Suarez. So I think this one is going to

83
00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:03,520
Speaker 1: be a little more high scoring than expected, So I

84
00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:05,480
Speaker 1: like over two and a half goals at plus one

85
00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:05,839
Speaker 1: oh five.

86
00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:09,200
Speaker 4: Actually, I think we're gonna take a shot at Letti here.

87
00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:12,240
Speaker 4: This team is set up to just turn games into

88
00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:14,960
Speaker 4: coin flips, and I know Liverpool are that front three.

89
00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:18,000
Speaker 4: The way the offense is clicking is dynamic, but they're

90
00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:21,000
Speaker 4: still they're feasting on some really poor defenses in the

91
00:04:21,040 --> 00:04:24,200
Speaker 4: Premier League. So, like you said, Atletico hasn't really faced

92
00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:26,120
Speaker 4: a team like Liverpool. You can also, I think, turn

93
00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:28,840
Speaker 4: the argument around. It's like Liverpool hasn't faced a defense

94
00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:31,200
Speaker 4: like Atletico, or when they did. You look at Man

95
00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:33,920
Speaker 4: City they did struggle or they did draw, and the

96
00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:36,039
Speaker 4: same thing with Chelsea they drew against them. So I

97
00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:38,680
Speaker 4: think there is a little bit of value on Atletico

98
00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:41,279
Speaker 4: as a home underdog. This is a game that the

99
00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:43,960
Speaker 4: winner goes top of the group, so I think Liverpool

100
00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:47,120
Speaker 4: might be actually a little more conservative. They also played

101
00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:50,480
Speaker 4: this weekend Atletico did not, so I'm gonna take a shot.

102
00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:52,880
Speaker 4: The number is pretty good plus two twenty five on Atletico.

103
00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:55,200
Speaker 4: So that's where I'm going, Anthony.

104
00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:57,680
Speaker 3: And it's a pass for me. I really, really really

105
00:04:57,720 --> 00:04:59,400
Speaker 3: want to get behind Atletico. I think that this is

106
00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:02,960
Speaker 3: an interesting match. Like you mentioned, Michael, Liverpool has beaten

107
00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:04,599
Speaker 3: up on a lot of really bad teams. But you

108
00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:06,960
Speaker 3: also have to look at their body of work that

109
00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:09,320
Speaker 3: dates back to about the last six games of last

110
00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:11,719
Speaker 3: season and now into the first eight Premier League games

111
00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:12,760
Speaker 3: of this season, plus the two.

112
00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:13,640
Speaker 5: Champions League games.

113
00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:16,520
Speaker 3: They had a little blip against Milan where they conceded

114
00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:18,479
Speaker 3: two goals in about five minutes, but Virgil van Dyke

115
00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:19,680
Speaker 3: didn't play in that match.

116
00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:21,080
Speaker 5: The only concern here.

117
00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:23,840
Speaker 3: For me with Liverpool is it's a look ahead spot.

118
00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:26,200
Speaker 3: They've got Manchester United coming up next week. They also

119
00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:28,280
Speaker 3: know that this is one of two games in a

120
00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:30,119
Speaker 3: row they're going to play in the Champions League against

121
00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:32,839
Speaker 3: Atletico Madrid. This is the away fixture with them having

122
00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:35,200
Speaker 3: the lead, It's a world where Liverpool would probably be

123
00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:37,719
Speaker 3: pretty satisfied to take the point knowing that they're going

124
00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:39,599
Speaker 3: to be coming home and have them at home in

125
00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:42,040
Speaker 3: that spot, so also a revenge spot from twenty nineteen.

126
00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:44,520
Speaker 3: The teams actually aren't all that different. I don't know

127
00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:47,080
Speaker 3: if that's concerning or not for both teams long term,

128
00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:49,600
Speaker 3: but the teams that Liverpool had let he put out

129
00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:52,680
Speaker 3: in twenty nineteen, twenty twenty, just before the pandemic aren't

130
00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:54,360
Speaker 3: that different from the ones that are going to show

131
00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:57,280
Speaker 3: up on Tuesday night. So I'm really interested for this one.

132
00:05:57,320 --> 00:05:59,760
Speaker 3: I'm going to pass ultimately, but I think that if

133
00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:01,520
Speaker 3: I to take a side and probably be a Lenti

134
00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:04,719
Speaker 3: just because Liverpool, we wonder if there's gonna be some

135
00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:05,400
Speaker 3: squad rotation.

136
00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:09,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, that that last time that these two teams met

137
00:06:09,200 --> 00:06:12,440
Speaker 4: in the Champions League will certainly go down in history,

138
00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:16,000
Speaker 4: not just in soccer but kind of sporting in European history.

139
00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:19,040
Speaker 4: Then the other game in Group B is another Tuesday

140
00:06:19,120 --> 00:06:22,920
Speaker 4: at three pm kickoff Porto ac Milan. These teams are

141
00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:25,599
Speaker 4: basically it's like it's a pick them basically between the

142
00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:29,240
Speaker 4: two of them, Porto plus one seventy underdogs at home

143
00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:31,880
Speaker 4: right now at bet MGM and AC Milan plus one

144
00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:35,120
Speaker 4: fifty five the draw at plus two forty. Bookmakers having

145
00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:37,960
Speaker 4: a tough time picking these teams apart, Anthony, are you

146
00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:39,479
Speaker 4: I'm not.

147
00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:42,960
Speaker 3: Actually there's a bit of an injury issue crisis going

148
00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:43,960
Speaker 3: on here for AC Milan.

149
00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:45,000
Speaker 5: They are starting to pile up.

150
00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:47,000
Speaker 3: They did have an excellent comeback three to two win

151
00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:49,520
Speaker 3: against Verona at the weekend that included a penalty and

152
00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:50,160
Speaker 3: an own goal.

153
00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:51,640
Speaker 5: A little bit lucky there.

154
00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:54,520
Speaker 3: They lost the expected goals battle marginally and given the

155
00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:56,480
Speaker 3: fact they were down most of the match, pretty concerning

156
00:06:56,560 --> 00:06:58,440
Speaker 3: that they didn't really create a ton of clear.

157
00:06:58,279 --> 00:06:59,039
Speaker 5: Chances in that one.

158
00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:03,920
Speaker 3: Milan's really impressive in Sirie. I know they've won almost

159
00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:06,159
Speaker 3: every single match they've played. They have the second best

160
00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:08,760
Speaker 3: expected goal difference in the league behind Napoli. It's been

161
00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:11,280
Speaker 3: an impressive start for Milan, but they've looked a lot

162
00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:13,440
Speaker 3: shakier in the Champions League and they were playing out

163
00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:16,920
Speaker 3: playing Atletico Madrid in in that last match. But they

164
00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:19,880
Speaker 3: looked a little bit out of their depth against Liverpool

165
00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:22,720
Speaker 3: and they struggled to cope once they went down to

166
00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:25,240
Speaker 3: man and really gave that game away. So this is

167
00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:27,280
Speaker 3: a desperation spot for both teams. Both teams need to win.

168
00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:30,160
Speaker 3: The most interesting thing here for Milan is the injury situation.

169
00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:32,560
Speaker 3: Mike Manion, the goalie for Milan, is out. He had

170
00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:35,720
Speaker 3: a long injury. Tayo Hernandez and Brahim Diaz tested positive

171
00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:38,720
Speaker 3: for COVID. They may not play Zlatsani Abrahimovich coming back

172
00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:40,920
Speaker 3: from injury, did feature a little bit over the weekend,

173
00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:42,440
Speaker 3: but not expected to start.

174
00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:43,400
Speaker 5: Make them off the bench.

175
00:07:43,880 --> 00:07:47,160
Speaker 3: And we look at Porto's terrible loss to Liverpool. It's

176
00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:49,120
Speaker 3: not the first time Porto has had trouble with Liverpool

177
00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:51,360
Speaker 3: in Europe. Liverpool have kind of had their number over

178
00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:54,520
Speaker 3: the recent years, pretty much blowing them at every single time.

179
00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:56,120
Speaker 3: Don't know what it is about that matchup, but it's

180
00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:58,520
Speaker 3: not been good for Porto. There are multiple goalie errors

181
00:07:58,520 --> 00:08:00,720
Speaker 3: that led to goals. It was a lot of fluke

182
00:08:01,200 --> 00:08:03,480
Speaker 3: goals that kind of came about for Liverpool. They weren't

183
00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:07,200
Speaker 3: quite as bad. Porto wasn't as the numbers suggest. They

184
00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:09,040
Speaker 3: also get Pepe back in the middle of their defense.

185
00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:12,560
Speaker 3: Chancellem Bemba may not play, he's questionable, but the Porto

186
00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:14,880
Speaker 3: improved defense, they'll be able to sit deep and absorb

187
00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:17,680
Speaker 3: pressure hit Milan on the counter, and I really don't

188
00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:20,560
Speaker 3: think Milan is built to go get a result here

189
00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:23,000
Speaker 3: away from home. So I like Porto. I think they're

190
00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:25,360
Speaker 3: a little undervalued, and I think they were unlucky to

191
00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:27,440
Speaker 3: not take any points from their first group match.

192
00:08:27,480 --> 00:08:29,360
Speaker 5: So give me Porto and the drama bet line minus

193
00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:29,920
Speaker 5: one fifteen.

194
00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:33,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm actually gonna bet Milan here. I'm just hoping

195
00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:36,679
Speaker 4: that the AC Milan that we've seen in Syria shows

196
00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:38,920
Speaker 4: up in Champions League. As simple as that, Sometimes you

197
00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:40,840
Speaker 4: don't really need to get too deep into it. As

198
00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:45,280
Speaker 4: Anthony said, the numbers in Syria are basically a bang

199
00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:47,080
Speaker 4: on for a team that could be or should be

200
00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:49,880
Speaker 4: and is contending for the title. Hoping that team does

201
00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:53,160
Speaker 4: show up in Portugal for this one. BJA are you

202
00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:54,400
Speaker 4: with me or are you with Anthony?

203
00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:57,439
Speaker 1: I'm with Anthony. I like the dramo betline here as well.

204
00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:00,240
Speaker 1: I mean Porto obviously a very defensive team playing the

205
00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:02,200
Speaker 1: four to four to two. They've been really good this

206
00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:06,760
Speaker 1: season domestically. They've only allowed five point four expected goes

207
00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:09,600
Speaker 1: total this year, and their first match again Athletico Madrid,

208
00:09:09,679 --> 00:09:12,600
Speaker 1: they only allowed them to create point four two expects

209
00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:15,360
Speaker 1: and really should have won that first match. So one

210
00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:18,400
Speaker 1: thing about AC Milan going back to last season, Anthony

211
00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:20,920
Speaker 1: mentioned the penalty and the old goal. Well, last season

212
00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:24,360
Speaker 1: they had the most penalties in anybody of Europe. They

213
00:09:24,400 --> 00:09:26,480
Speaker 1: had twenty penalties award, which was by far and away

214
00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:29,320
Speaker 1: the most in across the entire continent, and this season

215
00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:31,400
Speaker 1: they've already gotten three penalties as well in eight matches,

216
00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:33,920
Speaker 1: so a lot of luck for them offensively. But yeah,

217
00:09:33,960 --> 00:09:36,840
Speaker 1: I do think that given the injury issues with AC

218
00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:39,599
Speaker 1: Milan and the fact that Porto is so stout defensively,

219
00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:42,240
Speaker 1: I think there is some value on them on the

220
00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:43,880
Speaker 1: drawing no bat line of minus one fifteen.

221
00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:46,520
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to Grube.

222
00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:48,840
Speaker 4: PSG is currently at the top of this one with

223
00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:49,480
Speaker 4: four points.

224
00:09:49,559 --> 00:09:50,959
Speaker 2: Club Bruges out of Belgium.

225
00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:53,680
Speaker 4: They're tied with them on points with four than Man

226
00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:56,520
Speaker 4: City at three. RB Leipzig at the foot of the

227
00:09:56,520 --> 00:09:59,720
Speaker 4: table zero points. They are in a must win game

228
00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:03,280
Speaker 4: bas against PSG, who are minus two to seventy five favorites.

229
00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:06,240
Speaker 4: Leipzig comes back plus six fifty the draw plus four

230
00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:11,120
Speaker 4: twenty five. This is another three pm kickoff. Leipzig, coached

231
00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:14,679
Speaker 4: by American Jesse Marsh, have been struggling in the Bundesliga.

232
00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:15,960
Speaker 2: They just don't look like.

233
00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:20,520
Speaker 4: The RB Leipzig we've watched the past three or four years. BJ,

234
00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:25,280
Speaker 4: I really really, really really want to bet Leipzig on

235
00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:26,080
Speaker 4: the money line.

236
00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:28,240
Speaker 2: Please tell me to do it.

237
00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:29,240
Speaker 4: Do it?

238
00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:32,120
Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna be fading PSG almost like every

239
00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:35,480
Speaker 1: single Champions League match throughout their campaign. I mean, obviously

240
00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:39,040
Speaker 1: they have Messi, Neymar and and killing Embape best front

241
00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:41,800
Speaker 1: three in the world, but their last match against Manchester

242
00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:44,319
Speaker 1: City was kind of a microcosm of what happens when

243
00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:47,240
Speaker 1: PSG has to play talented attacking teams. I mean, they

244
00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:50,760
Speaker 1: just got pinned in for that entire match and basically

245
00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:52,640
Speaker 1: just sent in Bope, Neymar and Messy out on the

246
00:10:52,640 --> 00:10:54,280
Speaker 1: counter and just hope that they were able to create

247
00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:57,640
Speaker 1: something in Manchester City's end on a counter attack. They

248
00:10:57,640 --> 00:11:00,520
Speaker 1: don't really face those set talent attacking team teams in

249
00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:03,719
Speaker 1: League un France is the fifth most difficult league in

250
00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:06,400
Speaker 1: Europe based on UEFA coefficients, and the gap between them

251
00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:08,120
Speaker 1: and Germany is pretty big when you look at the

252
00:11:08,160 --> 00:11:11,920
Speaker 1: rankings points for the UWAYFA coefficients. But the biggest problem

253
00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:16,000
Speaker 1: is that mess Messi, Neymar and Mbope they're not going

254
00:11:16,040 --> 00:11:17,720
Speaker 1: to defend like they're just going to sit up there

255
00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:19,680
Speaker 1: and it's basically going to put more pressure on PSG's

256
00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:23,040
Speaker 1: defense and basically have Dunorama stand on his head every

257
00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:26,160
Speaker 1: single match, which I don't think is a really winning

258
00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:28,240
Speaker 1: type recipe and you're basically just relying on your front

259
00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:31,120
Speaker 1: three to create everything. And yeah, they're great, but sometimes

260
00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:34,040
Speaker 1: that just doesn't work. And RBI Leipsig, you know, they

261
00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:36,200
Speaker 1: have struggled to beginning of the season, but they played

262
00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:39,440
Speaker 1: PSG twice in the Champions League last year and they

263
00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:41,840
Speaker 1: outgraated them three point six to nine expected goals to

264
00:11:41,880 --> 00:11:44,840
Speaker 1: two point six. You know, things have changed for ARBIY Leipsig.

265
00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:47,240
Speaker 1: They new manager Jesse Marsh. Things haven't been going well.

266
00:11:47,240 --> 00:11:49,720
Speaker 1: They're breaking in two new center backs. They're allowing one

267
00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:51,760
Speaker 1: point four to four non penalty expected goals per match,

268
00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:53,600
Speaker 1: when last season it was around point eight, so a

269
00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:56,280
Speaker 1: pretty big gap between last year and this year. But

270
00:11:56,320 --> 00:11:58,240
Speaker 1: the attack is still there. You know, they're averaging one

271
00:11:58,240 --> 00:12:01,360
Speaker 1: point seven to six expected goals per the Bundesliga. They

272
00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:03,760
Speaker 1: just put three goals on Manchester City in their first

273
00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:05,959
Speaker 1: Champions League match, who has pretty much one of the

274
00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:08,840
Speaker 1: best defenses in the world. So I only have PSG

275
00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:12,480
Speaker 1: projected at plus one thirty so I'm gonna take rb

276
00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:14,839
Speaker 1: Leipsig plus one and a half at mis one thirty

277
00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:17,400
Speaker 1: five and they're probably gonna lose four to one.

278
00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:21,280
Speaker 4: But oh well, yeah, I'm I can't look away from

279
00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:23,199
Speaker 4: this money line. Six and a half to one. I'm

280
00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:25,160
Speaker 4: gonna take it this Like you said, I think.

281
00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:26,160
Speaker 2: Leipzig is gonna score.

282
00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:27,880
Speaker 4: Will they be able to get the two or three

283
00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:30,360
Speaker 4: needed probably to win this game? That's what it's coming

284
00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:32,640
Speaker 4: down to. This game, of course, is in Paris too,

285
00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:35,720
Speaker 4: so tough to go on the road. This is a

286
00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:38,319
Speaker 4: bet that just fills me with dread. But six and

287
00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:40,160
Speaker 4: a half to one on a really good team or

288
00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:41,720
Speaker 4: a team that used to be really good not that

289
00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:44,240
Speaker 4: long ago kind of brings up the question of where

290
00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:46,880
Speaker 4: would this game be priced if it was maybe the opener.

291
00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:47,520
Speaker 2: For this group.

292
00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:50,400
Speaker 4: I don't know, it definitely wouldn't be plus six fifty

293
00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:53,280
Speaker 4: next to Leipzig, Anthony. Are you making it three for

294
00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:55,200
Speaker 4: three on the Red Bulls?

295
00:12:56,120 --> 00:12:56,680
Speaker 5: Yeah? I am.

296
00:12:56,880 --> 00:12:58,439
Speaker 3: We can go back to last year and what was

297
00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:01,160
Speaker 3: the line when they mad these two teams play in Paris?

298
00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:03,160
Speaker 5: PSG was minus one sixty seven.

299
00:13:03,240 --> 00:13:06,320
Speaker 3: That was the close. They're now almost a dollar more expensive.

300
00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:09,240
Speaker 3: That's absurd. And look, I know PSG added this guy

301
00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:11,520
Speaker 3: named Leo Messi and he's very good and he makes

302
00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:13,920
Speaker 3: their attack much better. But like Bja, mentioned they're defending

303
00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:17,240
Speaker 3: ten on seven. They look extremely vulnerable in transition. When

304
00:13:17,280 --> 00:13:20,319
Speaker 3: they played Bruges, Bruges outplayed them for large stretches of

305
00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:23,280
Speaker 3: that match. Was probably lucky not to lose PSG was

306
00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:27,120
Speaker 3: they really struggled in the Champions League last year against

307
00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:30,640
Speaker 3: the similar kind of Weipzig direct counter attacking style that

308
00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:33,880
Speaker 3: they're going to play in this matchup. Look, Leipzig has

309
00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:36,600
Speaker 3: had their serious issues and defensive transition themselves. That makes

310
00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:39,360
Speaker 3: this game pretty concerning to get behind them, But the

311
00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:42,600
Speaker 3: numbers in the and the Bundesligga aren't quite matching up

312
00:13:42,600 --> 00:13:42,800
Speaker 3: for me.

313
00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:45,040
Speaker 5: They're expected goals numbers are middle of the pack.

314
00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:49,839
Speaker 3: They're ninth or tenth in expected goals allowed. But when

315
00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:51,439
Speaker 3: you look at all the other metrics we look at

316
00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:54,040
Speaker 3: for defending, they're pretty much better. I mean, they're not

317
00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:56,079
Speaker 3: allowing a lot of crosses, their top four across allowed,

318
00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:56,920
Speaker 3: their top four.

319
00:13:56,800 --> 00:13:58,200
Speaker 5: In box entries.

320
00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:02,160
Speaker 3: There's a Leipzig team that's creating or conceding a lot

321
00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:04,960
Speaker 3: of high quality chances, which is a major concern, but

322
00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:07,319
Speaker 3: they're also not conceding the things that lead to high

323
00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:09,880
Speaker 3: quality chances and what I think long term we're going

324
00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:11,960
Speaker 3: to see is that Leipzig is going to improve defensively

325
00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:15,040
Speaker 3: as they get more used to the Mars style. When

326
00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:17,600
Speaker 3: we look at this PSG team though, just serious red

327
00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:19,680
Speaker 3: flags all over the park. I was behind them all

328
00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:22,240
Speaker 3: year last year when they were playing bigger teams who

329
00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:24,240
Speaker 3: were they were able to counter against because of how

330
00:14:24,240 --> 00:14:25,520
Speaker 3: effective they can be in transition.

331
00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:27,920
Speaker 5: But Leipzig is going to be a little bit different here.

332
00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:30,320
Speaker 3: Playing at home, Leipsig is going to make them have

333
00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:32,200
Speaker 3: the ball and they're going to look to hit and transition.

334
00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:35,280
Speaker 3: I have major questions about this PSG midfield. I mean

335
00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:37,080
Speaker 3: a lot of times against City it was just Adrisa

336
00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:40,160
Speaker 3: Ganage defending for himself on the edge of the penalty area,

337
00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:43,440
Speaker 3: making moves left and right, and then Markinos putting in

338
00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:45,680
Speaker 3: a last ditch effort to stop City from getting shots off.

339
00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:48,800
Speaker 3: That there's just major concerns defensively. I cannot back PSG

340
00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:51,320
Speaker 3: with their defense. So I like Leipzig plus one and

341
00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:53,600
Speaker 3: a half goals as well. I'll join it and I'll

342
00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:55,280
Speaker 3: sprinkle some money lines, so I'll take a little bit

343
00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:58,400
Speaker 3: about your picks and we'll ride on Leipzig, who I

344
00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:00,360
Speaker 3: think are going to start to turn in the corner here.

345
00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:04,880
Speaker 4: Eventually a pain party coming your way at three pm

346
00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:09,040
Speaker 4: on Tuesday. The first kickoff in that group is Man

347
00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:12,400
Speaker 4: City minus three fifty taking on Club Bruges plus eight

348
00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:15,240
Speaker 4: p fifty the draw plus four to seventy five. This

349
00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:17,720
Speaker 4: is a twelve to forty five pm kickoff, So it's

350
00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:21,080
Speaker 4: a game that probably people who want action on. I

351
00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:24,160
Speaker 4: don't see too much value in the money lines anyway,

352
00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:26,400
Speaker 4: the over under in any way, the one thing I

353
00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:30,240
Speaker 4: may get behind here is City's defense to hold up

354
00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:33,280
Speaker 4: and the citizens to win to nail at plus one ten.

355
00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:36,040
Speaker 4: I think people have this common misconception, and maybe it's

356
00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:39,360
Speaker 4: not so common anymore that City is this offensive powerhouse,

357
00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:42,120
Speaker 4: but it's their defense that leads the league, that leads

358
00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:44,680
Speaker 4: the Premier League, and expecta goles against by quite a margin.

359
00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:48,280
Speaker 4: Pep has figured it out on defense. That used to

360
00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:50,840
Speaker 4: be the biggest knock on him, Not so much anymore.

361
00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:53,640
Speaker 4: So you know, fifty, is it a fifty to fifty

362
00:15:53,720 --> 00:15:56,080
Speaker 4: chance that Man City wins to nail? I think maybe

363
00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:57,640
Speaker 4: a little bit above that. So plus one ten not

364
00:15:57,680 --> 00:16:00,480
Speaker 4: a band number if you want action, because otherwise I

365
00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:02,960
Speaker 4: don't really see too much going on in this game.

366
00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:05,840
Speaker 2: What about you, BJ, Yeah, it's a no play for me.

367
00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:07,920
Speaker 1: I my projections, I think I have Manchester City at

368
00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:11,240
Speaker 1: minus three p forty two in the total at two

369
00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:13,840
Speaker 1: point nine to eight. You know, Bruges was really good

370
00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:15,400
Speaker 1: in their first two matches. They won the you know,

371
00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:18,640
Speaker 1: they've obviously beat Leipzig in Germany and won the expected

372
00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:21,960
Speaker 1: goals battle, and like Anthony mentioned, that match against PSG

373
00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:24,640
Speaker 1: was really close. Bruges was one point four to six

374
00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:27,080
Speaker 1: expected goals to PSG's one point five to one. So

375
00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:29,920
Speaker 1: they're much improved. I mean this is they've been in

376
00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:32,520
Speaker 1: a Champions League mainstay for a long time, they're experienced.

377
00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:37,520
Speaker 1: Simo Minule is their goalkeeper form formerly of Liverpool. They

378
00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:40,640
Speaker 1: do have some young, fun attacking talent that maybe can

379
00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:43,040
Speaker 1: give Manchester City some problems. But what's going to happen

380
00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:45,040
Speaker 1: to most teams when they play Manchester City is they're

381
00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:47,120
Speaker 1: just going to get pinned in because they can't afford

382
00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:51,200
Speaker 1: to play open with Pep guardy all aside. So I

383
00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:53,320
Speaker 1: think the line is correct, I think the over runners correct,

384
00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:54,520
Speaker 1: So it's just a pass for me.

385
00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:56,800
Speaker 4: It's a it's funny that this is kind of a

386
00:16:56,880 --> 00:16:59,720
Speaker 4: must win game for City because you know if they

387
00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:02,760
Speaker 4: give us your point, they'll still be trailing them. Assuming

388
00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:05,840
Speaker 4: PSG gets the job done against Leipzig, let's move on

389
00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:09,639
Speaker 4: Group C. This is a three pm kickoff also on Tuesday.

390
00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:13,520
Speaker 4: IAX plus one twenty five favorites at home against Dortmun

391
00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:17,159
Speaker 4: plus one ninety the draw plus two seventy five. The

392
00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:20,600
Speaker 4: bookmakers are expecting plenty of scoring. Three and a half

393
00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:25,000
Speaker 4: is the over under. I expect plenty of scoring, Anthony.

394
00:17:25,840 --> 00:17:27,159
Speaker 4: Do you just think this is just going to be

395
00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:28,119
Speaker 4: a carnival or something.

396
00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:29,080
Speaker 2: It feels like it.

397
00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:31,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's actually the match of the day for me.

398
00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:33,480
Speaker 3: It's the one that my TV will be. My main

399
00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:37,280
Speaker 3: TV will be Squarely on on Tuesday afternoon. This group

400
00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:39,879
Speaker 3: is ripe for goals and here we are. It's the

401
00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:42,240
Speaker 3: two best offenses in the group going at it. Both

402
00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:46,120
Speaker 3: have had some concerns defensively, for sure. I'm more concerned

403
00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:48,720
Speaker 3: about Dortmund than I am about IAX. Look five thirty

404
00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:50,600
Speaker 3: eight maybe wrong, and it probably is, but they've got

405
00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:52,359
Speaker 3: Iacs as the fifth best team in the world according

406
00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:55,719
Speaker 3: to their club rankings. My projections show i AX as

407
00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:58,840
Speaker 3: a better team than Dortmund. Now I think Iax is

408
00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:01,480
Speaker 3: ripe for a run here, and I know bj and

409
00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:03,880
Speaker 3: I have talked about this a bunch in this matchup,

410
00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:07,119
Speaker 3: particularly though I have serious concerns about Dortmund's defense. I mean,

411
00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:09,440
Speaker 3: they are leaking goals left and right. It seems every

412
00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:12,040
Speaker 3: game Doorman plays in the Bundesliga, it's they score a

413
00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:13,639
Speaker 3: goal and then concede one three minutes later, and then

414
00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:16,400
Speaker 3: score a goal. And they're very reliant on Earling Holland, who,

415
00:18:16,520 --> 00:18:18,639
Speaker 3: don't get me wrong, is probably the best young striker

416
00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:22,080
Speaker 3: in the world right now, but there's some concerns about

417
00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:24,879
Speaker 3: is he really as a lead of finishers as the

418
00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:28,520
Speaker 3: numbers are suggesting. At the moment, Dortmund is running more

419
00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:30,840
Speaker 3: above their expected goals than every team in the Bundesliga

420
00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:34,000
Speaker 3: besides Leverkusen. Defensively, they're conceding a little more than they

421
00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:36,119
Speaker 3: should be two, but they're also conceding a ton of

422
00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:40,000
Speaker 3: high quality chances, which against a team like Ajax, who

423
00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:44,240
Speaker 3: has produced more expected goals than anybody in the Champions

424
00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:46,280
Speaker 3: League thus far, is going to be a major issue.

425
00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:49,920
Speaker 3: Sebastian Halair has been an excellent addition for them.

426
00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:51,960
Speaker 5: He's already bagged.

427
00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:54,080
Speaker 3: I think it's four or five goals in the league,

428
00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:56,919
Speaker 3: in the Champions League in two matches, so he's flying

429
00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:59,480
Speaker 3: high and I'm gonna get behind IAX here on the

430
00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:01,000
Speaker 3: money line, I think that it's gonna be a high

431
00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:02,879
Speaker 3: scoring game, so I'm not as worried about a draw.

432
00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:04,720
Speaker 3: I AX needs to win this if they want to

433
00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:06,159
Speaker 3: win the group because they know that if they have

434
00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:07,600
Speaker 3: to go to Dormant in two weeks they need to win.

435
00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:09,679
Speaker 3: It's gonna be a lot tougher, so they're not going

436
00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:11,159
Speaker 3: to be looking to settle for any draws.

437
00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:12,960
Speaker 5: So I like I act some moneyline.

438
00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:15,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think this game also will be a lot

439
00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:18,080
Speaker 4: of fun if you like to live bet. If Dortmunt

440
00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:20,600
Speaker 4: goes ahead, I'll definitely be live betting i AX. As

441
00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:23,320
Speaker 4: you alluded to, there are just goals galore in every

442
00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:26,000
Speaker 4: Dortmunt match right now. They average and this is across

443
00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:29,520
Speaker 4: all competitions, not just Bundesliga. That includes Champions League and

444
00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:32,440
Speaker 4: their cup competition in Germany three point nine.

445
00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:33,399
Speaker 2: Total goals per match.

446
00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:36,840
Speaker 4: So I mean this is just going to be a

447
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:38,800
Speaker 4: back and forth kind of It's going to be like

448
00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:41,320
Speaker 4: a college football game and played in the Netherlands. I

449
00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:43,719
Speaker 4: feel like just two offenses, gun in the ball all

450
00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:44,320
Speaker 4: over the place.

451
00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:45,160
Speaker 2: BJ.

452
00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:48,880
Speaker 4: Does that mean you're going to be on the over Yeah.

453
00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:51,760
Speaker 1: The old school Big twelve game on on the Netherlands. Yeah,

454
00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:54,480
Speaker 1: I mean this is a match I mean, like Anthony said,

455
00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:56,200
Speaker 1: you know, I think not only the match of the day,

456
00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:58,200
Speaker 1: I think maybe the match of the entire group stage

457
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:00,600
Speaker 1: that I'm like most excited for because you know, i

458
00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:05,679
Speaker 1: AX obviously they just routed Sporting and Basheitas, who couldn't

459
00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:08,560
Speaker 1: even barely barely field eleven guys on the field. They

460
00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:10,560
Speaker 1: outscored them seven to one, out created them six point

461
00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:12,520
Speaker 1: five three expected goals to one point three to five.

462
00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:16,480
Speaker 1: And if you are unfamiliar with i AX, they just

463
00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:20,720
Speaker 1: obliterate everybody in the air de vise. They are averaging

464
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:23,280
Speaker 1: two point six to two expected goals per match domestically

465
00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:25,720
Speaker 1: and I'm only allowed a total of five expected goals

466
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:27,600
Speaker 1: and nine matches. But this is by far the best

467
00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:29,760
Speaker 1: offense that they've seen all season long. And you know,

468
00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:32,760
Speaker 1: Dortmann did struggle against Sporting Lisbon, they only created point

469
00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:34,520
Speaker 1: two to three expected goals for the match, but Early

470
00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:37,719
Speaker 1: Holland was out for that match. And in the bundest

471
00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:40,400
Speaker 1: League of the season. You know, they're averaging one point

472
00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:42,480
Speaker 1: eight four non penalty expected goals per match and they've

473
00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:45,880
Speaker 1: created sixteen big scoring chances, which is defined as because

474
00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:47,720
Speaker 1: I'll be mentioning it a lot as point three to

475
00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:50,680
Speaker 1: five XG rating or higher, so thirty five percent chance

476
00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:53,679
Speaker 1: or greater of going in on a single shot. And

477
00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:55,240
Speaker 1: I think they'll just be able to create a lot

478
00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:57,760
Speaker 1: of those high quality chances against IAX. And the one

479
00:20:57,760 --> 00:20:59,200
Speaker 1: thing also about i AX is they're on a third

480
00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:01,160
Speaker 1: choice goalkeeper right now, so there could be some goalkeeping

481
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:04,040
Speaker 1: errors in this one. But like Anthony said, you know,

482
00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:08,760
Speaker 1: the defensive woes for Dormand are real right now. You

483
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:11,240
Speaker 1: know they're only allowing one point one eight expected goles

484
00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:14,160
Speaker 1: for match, but in their three biggest matches against Frankfurt,

485
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 1: Hoffenheim and Gladbach, they allowed a total of five point

486
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:20,680
Speaker 1: eight two expected goals and they've allowed eleven big scoring

487
00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:24,040
Speaker 1: chances in the Bundesliga this season. So for two teams

488
00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:27,560
Speaker 1: that play a extremely open style of play, there's gonna

489
00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:30,119
Speaker 1: be so many chances at both ends. I'm so excited

490
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:32,480
Speaker 1: to watch that it might be you know, it might

491
00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:34,639
Speaker 1: be a square play, but I love over three and

492
00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:36,080
Speaker 1: a half goals at plus one twenty five.

493
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:39,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's definitely one to back the over with that.

494
00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 4: It's I can't imagine betting an under or feeling just

495
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,280
Speaker 4: the dread of betting the under in a match like this.

496
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:48,080
Speaker 4: It would be like like you said, betting Oklahoma State

497
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:50,720
Speaker 4: bedlam right, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and seeing.

498
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 2: The total at eighty one.

499
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:54,159
Speaker 4: I mean like I just gotta I just gotta take

500
00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:58,199
Speaker 4: the over. If this is the match of the group stage,

501
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:01,960
Speaker 4: the other Group C matchup is probably at the opposite

502
00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:05,240
Speaker 4: end of the spectrum. Bashikas out of Turkey or plus

503
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 4: two hundred underdogs at home against Sporting plus one thirty.

504
00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 4: The draw sits at plus two forty. Both of these

505
00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:14,520
Speaker 4: teams have zero points h at stortment both at six,

506
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 4: so it's basically an elimination game. It's at twelve forty

507
00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:23,040
Speaker 4: five pm on Tuesday. I've got absolutely nothing on this one, Anthony.

508
00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:26,359
Speaker 3: I mean either one note, Lisbon kind of a defensive

509
00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:29,040
Speaker 3: luck box, a little bit running well above or I

510
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:31,919
Speaker 3: guess well below what they should have conceded dating back

511
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:33,480
Speaker 3: to last season, even when you look at their expected

512
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 3: goals numbers, they ran pretty lucky. And the other note

513
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 3: here is that Europa League matters for these teams. I

514
00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:41,359
Speaker 3: know that they're not going to qualify out of the

515
00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:43,800
Speaker 3: Champions League group, but what you're going to see is

516
00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:47,159
Speaker 3: that playing for that point makes a huge difference when

517
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:50,040
Speaker 3: it comes down to these next two matches, which could

518
00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:52,479
Speaker 3: decide who goes to the Europa League and who doesn't.

519
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:54,359
Speaker 3: And that makes a big difference for these clubs. So

520
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 3: probably don't think it's going to be a particularly open,

521
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:01,600
Speaker 3: high scoring match. Has been tends to be pretty conservative

522
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:03,600
Speaker 3: and and tends to try to you know, pack it

523
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,399
Speaker 3: in and try to rely on its defense to prevent goals.

524
00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:10,000
Speaker 3: But like I mentioned, they're a little bit due for

525
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 3: some negative defensive aggression. So overall staying away from this game,

526
00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:15,920
Speaker 3: but I think that it will be an interesting watch

527
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:18,880
Speaker 3: just because these teams need the result to get out

528
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 3: of the into the Europa League.

529
00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:24,720
Speaker 4: And obviously LIS beIN with some hell to travel having

530
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 4: to go across the continent from Portugal to istanbul Let's

531
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:32,119
Speaker 4: move to Group D. I can't believe I'm saying this,

532
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 4: but that group is topped right now by Sheriff Terris

533
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 4: Bowl at six points, Real Madrid at three points, Entered

534
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:41,920
Speaker 4: Milan at one point, and Shakhtar Denesk at one point.

535
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:43,160
Speaker 2: The game we'll start with.

536
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 4: Here is another early kickoff. It's Real Madrid minus one

537
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:50,760
Speaker 4: seventy five against Shakhtar plus four fifty the draw plus

538
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:52,680
Speaker 4: three twenty BJ.

539
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:56,040
Speaker 1: I like Shockstar plus one at home here. I mean

540
00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 1: this is a rematch of last season in the Champions

541
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:01,280
Speaker 1: League when Shoktar beat Realman twice, and one of those

542
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 1: matches was in Ukraine, when Shocktar had a COVID outbreak

543
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:07,200
Speaker 1: and seven starters route and they somehow still beat Real Madrid.

544
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 1: This time around, I think they had to have another

545
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:11,719
Speaker 1: good shot at chance of pulling off an upset against them.

546
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:14,479
Speaker 1: I mean, they looked much better against Inter than they

547
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:17,919
Speaker 1: did against Sheriff. The XG battle was pretty close, but

548
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 1: Shocktar had more shot creating actions and held sixty six

549
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 1: percent possession. Real Madrid is a little banged up coming

550
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:26,959
Speaker 1: into this match. Danny Carnivar Hall for len Mendi, Eastco

551
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:28,640
Speaker 1: and Gareth Bale will all be out and a couple

552
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:31,160
Speaker 1: other guys are questionable, and Real Madrid has been running

553
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 1: really hot offensively. They've scored twenty two goals in La

554
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:37,480
Speaker 1: Liga on fifteen point one two expected goals, so there

555
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:40,879
Speaker 1: will be some offensitive regression coming at some point this season.

556
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 1: They also haven't been that dominant defensively. Domestically, They've allowed

557
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 1: the eighth most shot creating actions tenth motes touches in

558
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:50,680
Speaker 1: their own final third, and they have the twelfth best

559
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 1: pressure success rate. It's also gonna be little Chili in

560
00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:57,200
Speaker 1: Kiev on Tuesday in the low forties during the match

561
00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 1: when Real Madrid is really not used to playing in

562
00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 1: that because it's a beautiful seventy degrees and sunny pretty

563
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,920
Speaker 1: much every day in Spain. So I have Real Madrid

564
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 1: projected at minus one twenty two. So I do think

565
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 1: there's some value on Shaktar at plus one at minus

566
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:13,080
Speaker 1: one oh five at home to get a result.

567
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:16,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, Shaktar is one of two teams in this group

568
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:20,360
Speaker 4: that plays in a disputed territory in their country. Den

569
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:24,920
Speaker 4: Esk of course is in Ukraine, but only in name only.

570
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,199
Speaker 4: I guess, yeah, I'm going to be on Shaktar in

571
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 4: this one. The It's just it's so much fun to

572
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:33,480
Speaker 4: bet against these teams going to the Ukraine or to Russia.

573
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 4: Or wherever you watch Koreean Benzima just struggling. You know,

574
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:40,200
Speaker 4: the saying is can you do it in a rainy

575
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 4: night in Stoke in soccer? Well, this one is can

576
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,399
Speaker 4: you do it on a chili night in Denesk. So

577
00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 4: I'll take Shocktar plus four to fifty? First small bet, Anthony,

578
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:49,119
Speaker 4: What about you?

579
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:51,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I can't decide here if I want to go

580
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 3: with the shaktar plus one of the under three goals.

581
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:55,679
Speaker 5: I'm in a bit of a debate.

582
00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:58,159
Speaker 3: I just don't really know how much I can trust

583
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:01,919
Speaker 3: this Shaktar attack right now. Lacina Triore, who's probably their

584
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 3: best attacker, is now out for the year. He had

585
00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:06,919
Speaker 3: a really bad knee injury in the intermatch, and they

586
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 3: created a couple of chances, but they mostly came off

587
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 3: set pieces, and that's where I think they can get

588
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 3: at this real Madrid team.

589
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 5: Look real Madrid. We can talk about how good Carenton

590
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 5: Benzema is.

591
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:20,399
Speaker 3: He is amazing, but he's not nearly as good as

592
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:22,560
Speaker 3: the finishing numbers early in the season would suggest. Same

593
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:25,679
Speaker 3: with Venetius Junior, who the narrative on him for like

594
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:27,879
Speaker 3: four years was all you know, he just can't finish

595
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 3: and now you know, all he can do is find

596
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 3: bottom corners of the net, which is funny how that works.

597
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,080
Speaker 3: But the reality is that it's somewhere in the middle

598
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 3: and they've scored twenty two goals from fourteen and change

599
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 3: expected in the in La Liga. They came out roaring

600
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 3: hot and the schooled off a little bit. They also

601
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:46,400
Speaker 3: haven't played in a few weeks. They did not play

602
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 3: this weekend. They were supposed to do, but then it

603
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 3: got canceled because the players coming back from international break.

604
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 3: I wonder what the situation is there these players. A

605
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:57,200
Speaker 3: lot of the players coming from South America right are

606
00:26:57,200 --> 00:26:59,359
Speaker 3: getting to Spain on the weekend and then they have

607
00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:03,639
Speaker 3: to go to Ukraine, you know, for a midweek match.

608
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 3: So it's a lot of travel, a lot of jetlag

609
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 3: for some of these players who are traveling a lot

610
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 3: more than they usually would.

611
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:11,680
Speaker 5: So it's probably gonna end up being in.

612
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 3: Either shacktar plus one or an under for me, I

613
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:15,920
Speaker 3: just haven't quite decided, but you can follow me in

614
00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 3: the action app and figure out where I end up

615
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:18,359
Speaker 3: on this one.

616
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 4: If you're listening to the show, you're someone maybe who

617
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 4: listens to the Big Bets on Campus podcast or the

618
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 4: NFL podcast we have on the Action Network. Think of

619
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:29,960
Speaker 4: it like if you took the university in Miami and said,

620
00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:33,120
Speaker 4: all right, it's November eighth, go play a game in Laramie,

621
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:36,399
Speaker 4: Wyoming and set the spread at like, you know, plus

622
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 4: twenty six for Wyoming. That's how this game feels to me. So,

623
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:42,880
Speaker 4: I mean, how can you not bet Wyoming in that game?

624
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:45,440
Speaker 4: How can you not bet Shaktart in this one. Let's

625
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:48,400
Speaker 4: move on to the other team in a disputed territory here.

626
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 4: That's our beloved FC Sheriff in Tiraspol, which is sort

627
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 4: of in Moldova, sort of.

628
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 2: Not in Moldova.

629
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:58,160
Speaker 4: We'll leave that to the Action Networks European Politics pod,

630
00:27:58,200 --> 00:27:59,200
Speaker 4: which was soon to launch.

631
00:27:59,240 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 1: Of course.

632
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:03,159
Speaker 4: They're thirteen to one underdogs against Inter Milan, who were

633
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:04,159
Speaker 4: minus five fifty.

634
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:06,160
Speaker 2: That draw plus six point fifty.

635
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:08,439
Speaker 4: I mean, it's must win game for Inter They're on

636
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 4: one point, and here we are talking about Sheriff at

637
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:14,120
Speaker 4: six points. It's not a must win game for Sheriff somehow,

638
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 4: bj is, do you see anything on this match from

639
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:19,479
Speaker 4: a betting standpoint? I know you see a lot from

640
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:24,480
Speaker 4: a geopolitical intrigue standpoint, but from a betting standpoint.

641
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna let you handle the geopolitical stuff. But

642
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:28,720
Speaker 1: they were incredibly lucky to beat Real Madrid. It was

643
00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 1: obviously a very historic upset, but Real Madrid out created

644
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:33,680
Speaker 1: them three point two expect goals to point three to five,

645
00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 1: and I somehow still one two to one. You know,

646
00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 1: my projections have inter pretty close to what the actual

647
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:43,280
Speaker 1: money line is and pretty close to the over under

648
00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 1: as well. I'll be honest, like, from an analytical standpoint,

649
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:49,480
Speaker 1: there's just not that much trust in data that comes

650
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 1: out of Moldova, So I really, I really don't know

651
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 1: what to do with them or how to project them sometimes.

652
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 1: So you know, luckily the first two matches I've been

653
00:28:57,400 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 1: able to stay away from them, and I think this

654
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 1: will be another situation where I'm just going to have

655
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 1: to stay away and just, you know, maybe root for

656
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:06,479
Speaker 1: another historic upset.

657
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 4: I don't believe you that the Moldovan Premier League has

658
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 4: bad data, Anthony, are you going to be betting this wonderful match?

659
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 3: On the Champions League preview pod, I said I was

660
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 3: going to look to fade this team at every possible turn.

661
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 5: That's aged pretty well and they got what I thought

662
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:22,080
Speaker 5: was a deserved win.

663
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 3: Watched the whole match against Shaktar, if that they were

664
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 3: the better team. The interesting thing about this Sheriff team,

665
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:30,040
Speaker 3: compared to a lot of these lower tiered division teams

666
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 3: that win their league, is that they tend to boss

667
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:35,480
Speaker 3: their domestic leagues because they're the best team. They tend

668
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 3: to have a lot of the ball, they tend to

669
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 3: be used to having the ball, and then they go

670
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 3: play a team who is not going to let them

671
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:45,560
Speaker 3: have the ball and they are completely unable to defend whatsoever. Well,

672
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 3: let's flash forward now, Shaktar created very little against them

673
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 3: in ninety minutes. It was a pretty poor performance from

674
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 3: them Real Madrid. Yes, there were three point three expected goals.

675
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 3: There was a penalty mixed in there, but a lot

676
00:29:57,800 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 3: of those chances. If you go back and look, they

677
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:01,440
Speaker 3: had a lot of block shots, They got a lot

678
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 3: of numbers behind the ball.

679
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 5: They were incredibly disciplined.

680
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 3: The goalie made a few couple of pretty big saves,

681
00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 3: but nothing, you know, extraordinary.

682
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:10,280
Speaker 5: I wouldn't say he was necessarily standing on his head.

683
00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 3: And then they did an ultimate match and grab and

684
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:17,120
Speaker 3: turned their two legitimate chances into goals. So far, they've

685
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:20,240
Speaker 3: had one expected goal, they've scored four. They've conceded four

686
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 3: point two expected goals, they've only conceded one actual goal.

687
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:28,280
Speaker 3: So this team has has really defied all logic. And

688
00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:29,960
Speaker 3: what I think here is going to happen is that

689
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go under three and a half goals. And

690
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:35,280
Speaker 3: the reason for that is I think Sheriff is not

691
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 3: going to create anything in this game. I think they're

692
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 3: in huge trouble in terms of trying to do anything

693
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:44,480
Speaker 3: against this inter defense, which has been pretty solid there.

694
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:47,240
Speaker 3: And you look at incher from the offensive point of view,

695
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 3: they're running really hot in front of goal. They've they've

696
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:52,800
Speaker 3: started the serious season. They've they've they've lost Lukaku and

697
00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:56,040
Speaker 3: they've lost a Kimi and there, and they've lost Ericson.

698
00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 3: They're not nearly as potent offensively, but they've made up

699
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 3: for it by finishing better, which in the short term

700
00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 3: can work. But in the long term dozen I think

701
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 3: Inters due for some regression here. I think under three

702
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 3: and a half goals here, I think it's a sleepy game.

703
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 3: I'll take under three and a half goals minus one

704
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:11,560
Speaker 3: twenty five or better.

705
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 4: All right, and that would wrap up the Tuesday slate,

706
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:17,520
Speaker 4: so we'll flip the page move into Wednesday. I think

707
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 4: the headliner here is pretty clear as well. That's Manchester

708
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 4: United minus won thirty five favorites against Adelanta plus three

709
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:27,120
Speaker 4: sixty the draw plus two to seventy five. This game

710
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:30,480
Speaker 4: is taking place at Old Trafford, the Theater of dreams.

711
00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:32,920
Speaker 4: It has not been a theater of dreams for this

712
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:38,000
Speaker 4: Manchester United team lately. It feels like Manchester United's game

713
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:40,720
Speaker 4: plan is just a brand and as a club has

714
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 4: been to turn Old Trafford into like a Manchester United

715
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:44,920
Speaker 4: nostalgia theme park.

716
00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:46,120
Speaker 2: It's very strange.

717
00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:49,360
Speaker 4: This group right now at Alanta is four points in

718
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 4: first place. Young boys who beat United in their Champions

719
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 4: League opener at three, United at three via Real at one.

720
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 4: I got to admit I was pretty surprised that United

721
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 4: was priced minus one thirty five after their loss to

722
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 4: Leicester this over the weekend and just the way things

723
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:06,480
Speaker 4: have been going for the club, Anthony, do you see

724
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:09,440
Speaker 4: anything this game where us shocked? As I was at

725
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 4: the minus sign next to United, it really didn't move.

726
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:17,280
Speaker 3: I think the market, unfortunately, has been on this Manchester

727
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:19,520
Speaker 3: United thing for a little while, but they're just not

728
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:23,280
Speaker 3: that good. They've added Christiano Ronaldo, who is very good

729
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 3: when in terms of the fact that he's got all

730
00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 3: got four goals that he's scored for them, three of

731
00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:30,680
Speaker 3: which have come on rebound tappens and the fourth of

732
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 3: which went through the goalie's legs from about fifteen yards out.

733
00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 3: Pretty poor piece of goalkeeping. Rinaldo is offering absolutely nothing

734
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:39,480
Speaker 3: in terms of pressing the front line of the opponent.

735
00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:42,880
Speaker 3: His pressure rate in the prem like total pressures is

736
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:46,080
Speaker 3: the lowest in the league of regular starters per ninety,

737
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 3: so he's not offering much. They're playing a man down

738
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 3: essentially without the ball. They have no plan to progress

739
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:55,720
Speaker 3: the ball through the midfield. It's you know, and Karl

740
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 3: Anko of the Athletic has been getting dragged on Twitter

741
00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:00,040
Speaker 3: for this take that he's had, and you know, he

742
00:32:59,920 --> 00:33:02,480
Speaker 3: was kind of ripping Olea gon to Solsha a few

743
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:05,120
Speaker 3: weeks ago for the fact that they're playing against teams

744
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 3: like aston Villa and Everton, who they should be and

745
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 3: have way more talent then, yet they're getting absolutely destroyed

746
00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 3: in transition. They look completely lost on the ball and

747
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 3: they pretty much hope that one of their really good

748
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 3: players beats a man, gets across in or gets a

749
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 3: good shot off and you know, they score a goal

750
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:24,720
Speaker 3: off of a Greenwood, amazing stunning goal against Lester but

751
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 3: they concede over two and a half expected bolts.

752
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 5: Harry maguire looked off the pace. They played a Pogma

753
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:34,600
Speaker 5: Mattic double pivot, which does not work against competent teams,

754
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:37,360
Speaker 5: which Lester is and Atalanta definitely is.

755
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:41,320
Speaker 3: This is a really fascinating stylistic matchup. On one hand,

756
00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 3: you have an Adelota team that's gonna man mark. They're

757
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 3: going to press high. They are going to apply a

758
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 3: lot of pressure to Manchester United, which United has done

759
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:50,600
Speaker 3: relatively well against in the past. We've seen teams like

760
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:52,960
Speaker 3: Leads who have gotten absolute ripped apart by Manchester United.

761
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 3: But they're also going to force men United to play

762
00:33:56,520 --> 00:33:57,720
Speaker 3: a lot of pass out of the back and try

763
00:33:57,720 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 3: to progress the ball with a lot of resistance and

764
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:01,400
Speaker 3: I have been able to do that at all recently.

765
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 5: So it's a really interesting matchup.

766
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 3: But what I think here is going to be a

767
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:08,040
Speaker 3: lot of United turnovers in their own half from Adalana's

768
00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:10,879
Speaker 3: press one and I think when Adalanta gets broken through,

769
00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:14,319
Speaker 3: United's attacking talent pretty much does the ball progression for them.

770
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 3: They get the ball into the final third, they're gonna

771
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 3: be extremely dangerous. I think there's gonna be a lot

772
00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:19,160
Speaker 3: of chances at both ends here. I like over three

773
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:23,479
Speaker 3: at minus one twenty. United defensively running really hot. Because

774
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:26,279
Speaker 3: David de has been incredible. How long is that going

775
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 3: to last. He's been pretty much a league average keeper

776
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 3: for three years until the last seven or eight games.

777
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:32,719
Speaker 3: I don't expected to last. So I think this game

778
00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 3: is going to have a lot of chances at both ends,

779
00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 3: a lot of goals, and I don't really show a

780
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 3: ton on the money line, but I do like over

781
00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 3: three goals.

782
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 4: It's always fun. When United's struggling. The English media just

783
00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:46,320
Speaker 4: sinks its teeth in. I think it was Jonathan Wilson

784
00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:50,200
Speaker 4: who coined the nostalgia theme park, and you just described

785
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:52,680
Speaker 4: exactly what a Manchester United theme park would look like.

786
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:55,719
Speaker 4: Right here's Christian or Ronaldo scoring a tap in goal.

787
00:34:56,120 --> 00:34:58,520
Speaker 4: You know, it's just it's absurd. They're eleven to one,

788
00:34:58,560 --> 00:35:01,400
Speaker 4: by the way, six favorites still to win the whole competition.

789
00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:04,480
Speaker 4: Don't know if they deserve that price either. I think

790
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:06,359
Speaker 4: I might try to bet it live over here if

791
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:09,279
Speaker 4: it's pretty quiet in the first fifteen minutes or so,

792
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:11,759
Speaker 4: get a try to get in maybe a two and

793
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 4: a half or two if I can BJ What about you,

794
00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:18,800
Speaker 4: Do you see anything in United at Atlanta?

795
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll be honest, I really don't like this pick

796
00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:26,240
Speaker 1: at all, but I do have some projected value, great endorsement.

797
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:28,880
Speaker 1: The main reason for that is because there's just honestly

798
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 1: a really big gap in the competition between the Premier

799
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:33,760
Speaker 1: League and Siria I almost like a twenty five point

800
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:36,880
Speaker 1: in the UAFA coefficient rankings. I'm just going to trust

801
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:40,000
Speaker 1: my projections and take MANCHESTERI minus one thirty five, which

802
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:42,960
Speaker 1: is kind of more of a bet against Atlanta, who, honestly,

803
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:45,359
Speaker 1: in their first Champions League magicins VRL did not look

804
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:48,319
Speaker 1: that great defensively and allowed Viial to create two point

805
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:51,840
Speaker 1: two expected goals. So yeah, I'll go with Manchester un

806
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:55,320
Speaker 1: out of the theater of dreams and they're nostalgic forward who's

807
00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:56,680
Speaker 1: thirty six years old. Now.

808
00:35:57,600 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 3: The one interesting thing, Joseph Ilichic to start on Sunday

809
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 3: for Adelanta, played really well. He is really important for

810
00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:05,759
Speaker 3: ball progression. He's the kind of guy who can give

811
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:08,000
Speaker 3: this United defense a lot of trouble. We'll see what

812
00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 3: Gasparini does in terms of how he sets this team up.

813
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:12,799
Speaker 3: They went to Liverpool last year lost five to nil.

814
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:16,000
Speaker 3: They then won the reverse pixture. I don't know what

815
00:36:16,040 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 3: to expect. I think we're gonna get some chaos in

816
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:18,399
Speaker 3: this match.

817
00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 1: Robin Ghosten's also questionable or maybe not gonna play for Atlanta.

818
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 2: The other match in this one is some thin ice too.

819
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:28,320
Speaker 4: It's like phillar Real one point plus one ten taking

820
00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:31,880
Speaker 4: on young boys who are sitting relatively pretty three points

821
00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 4: there plus two to fifty underdogs at home to draw

822
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:38,560
Speaker 4: plus two thirty. I actually don't like the game. However,

823
00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 4: I might take a shot on via Real, either to

824
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:44,880
Speaker 4: win the group at nine to one, or even go

825
00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:47,200
Speaker 4: a little crazier and have them win the whole tournament

826
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:49,040
Speaker 4: at two hundred to one. Hear me out right that

827
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 4: this is a team that their numbers aren't too great

828
00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 4: right now, but if they do advance out of this group,

829
00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:56,520
Speaker 4: this is a team that is just a bear to

830
00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:57,400
Speaker 4: beat in tournaments.

831
00:36:57,480 --> 00:36:59,120
Speaker 2: Uniamori just won the Europa League.

832
00:36:59,200 --> 00:37:01,960
Speaker 4: He beat Manchester United in that final in a shootout.

833
00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:04,160
Speaker 4: Maybe it's a cliche or stereotype with some of these

834
00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 4: good Spanish well structured defensive teams like via Real and Sevilla,

835
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:10,520
Speaker 4: that they're just good tournament teams, but they win tournaments.

836
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 4: Sevilla won like twenty five Europa Leagues this decade, and

837
00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 4: we've seen so many heartbreaking losses from Viareal already this season.

838
00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 4: But like I said, I don't think there's much in

839
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:22,400
Speaker 4: this game for me from a betting perspective. But if

840
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:25,279
Speaker 4: you are new to betting on Champions League, you want

841
00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:28,520
Speaker 4: a team to attach a long shot future too. Viril

842
00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:30,480
Speaker 4: would be my choice two hundred and one because I

843
00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:33,319
Speaker 4: still think that they're not a terrible shout to get

844
00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:35,799
Speaker 4: out of this group. They're what one, basically one game

845
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:38,399
Speaker 4: behind the team at first place, Atlanta, who you guys

846
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:40,520
Speaker 4: just said a little bit of a paper tiger. We

847
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 4: know Manchester United paper tiger, and then the other team

848
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:45,400
Speaker 4: in there, young boys.

849
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:49,080
Speaker 2: I think it's still wide open. Bja am I crazy.

850
00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 1: No, not at all. I mean, Viral's honestly really unlucky.

851
00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:53,959
Speaker 1: You don't have one point right now, four point seven

852
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:56,080
Speaker 1: expected goals compared to only two point two, and they're

853
00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:57,959
Speaker 1: two Champions League matches. Like I said earlier, they should

854
00:37:58,000 --> 00:37:59,799
Speaker 1: have beaten Atlanta and they really should have beat man

855
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:02,680
Speaker 1: United and their last Champions League match, So no, I

856
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 1: don't think it's crazy at all. It's obviously a very

857
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:08,719
Speaker 1: well organized, structured squad that's now starting to actually create

858
00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:10,960
Speaker 1: a lot of chances instead of playing very defensive. So no,

859
00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:12,400
Speaker 1: I don't think you're crazy at all, Michael.

860
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:13,960
Speaker 3: I mean I don't have a lot of belief right

861
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:16,080
Speaker 3: now in Manchester United. I definitely don't have a lot

862
00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:17,920
Speaker 3: of belief in Atlanta. And when you think about this

863
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:20,760
Speaker 3: Villa Reale team, their ability to hit on the counter

864
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 3: when they play Atlanta at Atalanta makes them a sneaky threat.

865
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:26,799
Speaker 3: And then Man United, we know about their history with

866
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:30,000
Speaker 3: villar Real. Almost every game has ended in a goalless tie,

867
00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:31,759
Speaker 3: and we finally got some goals in the last match.

868
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:34,480
Speaker 3: But there's gonna be a lot of pressure when those

869
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:36,600
Speaker 3: two teams meet at the end of the group stage

870
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:39,040
Speaker 3: on Menschter United and not a lot of pressure on

871
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 3: villar Real.

872
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 4: So there you have it. Go to your bookmaker of choice.

873
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:45,799
Speaker 4: Two hundred to one via reale like the nine to

874
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:48,680
Speaker 4: one on the group better, well, maybe split the stake

875
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 4: nine to one two hundred to one. Then you can

876
00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 4: tweet at us when it loses after they get upset

877
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:55,280
Speaker 4: by young boys on Wednesday.

878
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:57,200
Speaker 2: Let's move on Group E.

879
00:38:57,480 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 4: This one is topped by Bayern Munich, perhaps the best

880
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:03,240
Speaker 4: team in Europe right now, Benfica at four points, Byron

881
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:07,239
Speaker 4: sitting at six, Benfica at four, Dinamo Kiev at one.

882
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 4: And then how about this one Barcelona zero points, foot

883
00:39:11,600 --> 00:39:13,880
Speaker 4: of the table. We'll get to that match next, but

884
00:39:13,960 --> 00:39:16,719
Speaker 4: first let's start with a game that is going to

885
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 4: be a lot of fun. I think, just from a

886
00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:22,200
Speaker 4: game theory, standpoint Byron minus two fifty favorites against Benfica,

887
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 4: who are seven to one the draw plus three seventy five.

888
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:29,040
Speaker 4: This is a three pm kickoff on Wednesday. BJ I

889
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 4: am very ready to do something I think I'm going

890
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:32,120
Speaker 4: to regret.

891
00:39:32,560 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, this one's going to suck because I'm taking Benafica

892
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:37,279
Speaker 1: plus one and a half minus one twenty five. Byron

893
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:39,359
Speaker 1: Munich's overvalued here and let me kind of explain this,

894
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:41,359
Speaker 1: because I don't think people see Byron Munich. They see

895
00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:43,719
Speaker 1: the result this weekend against Leverkusten they win five one.

896
00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, Byron, Muic's the best team in the world.

897
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:47,440
Speaker 1: How could you ever bet against them? Okay, let me

898
00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 1: kind of explain this a little bit. Byron last season

899
00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 1: wildly overperformed their expected goals numbers. They scored ninety nine

900
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:56,120
Speaker 1: goals in the Bundesliga off of seventy five point two

901
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:57,680
Speaker 1: to three expected goals, and a lot of it has

902
00:39:57,719 --> 00:39:59,319
Speaker 1: do the fact that head they have one of the

903
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:01,719
Speaker 1: most clinical finishers in the world and Robin Lewandowski who

904
00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:03,880
Speaker 1: makes up for a lot of that. So Byermuk's not

905
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:07,000
Speaker 1: going to regress all the way down to seventy five goals,

906
00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:08,759
Speaker 1: but it's going to meet somewhere in the middle. They

907
00:40:08,760 --> 00:40:10,760
Speaker 1: can't just keep up the scoring right now. This season

908
00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:14,200
Speaker 1: they've been a little closer to their expected goals, have

909
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:17,440
Speaker 1: been closer to what their actual goal numbers are. But

910
00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 1: I actually had to go in and make manual adjustments

911
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:22,560
Speaker 1: to my projections because I was way off on this one.

912
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:24,760
Speaker 1: And I can still only get Bayern Munich to minus

913
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:26,719
Speaker 1: one thirty fives. And a lot of that has to

914
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:29,359
Speaker 1: do with the fact that Benefica is a really, really

915
00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:32,240
Speaker 1: good team. They're probably the second best team in Europe

916
00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:35,839
Speaker 1: outside of the major five leagues behind I as they

917
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:37,960
Speaker 1: led portchu goal last season with the plus thirty five

918
00:40:38,000 --> 00:40:41,239
Speaker 1: point three expected goal differential this season plus fourteen point

919
00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:44,040
Speaker 1: three expected gold differential in eight matches. Portugal is the

920
00:40:44,120 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 1: sixth most difficult league in Europe, so this is absolutely

921
00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 1: a legit team. They have some experience on their back line,

922
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 1: Nicholas Attamendi and Jan ver tonkin to longtime Premier League defenders,

923
00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:57,279
Speaker 1: will be we'll be able to hopefully hold Robin Lewandowski

924
00:40:57,320 --> 00:41:01,080
Speaker 1: in check and some of the other attacking players benefica

925
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 1: from a squad value standpoint. Also two hundred and seventy

926
00:41:03,719 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 1: nine million according to transfer market, that is the second

927
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 1: highest behind IAX outside of the main five leagues. They

928
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:12,680
Speaker 1: also just drilled by Barcelona three nothing in the last

929
00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:14,719
Speaker 1: Champions League match, so this is not a team to

930
00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:18,400
Speaker 1: be taken lightly. Who's especially at home. And also, you know,

931
00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:22,680
Speaker 1: based on the ranking points Germany, the gap between Germany

932
00:41:22,680 --> 00:41:26,520
Speaker 1: and Portugal is actually closer than the gap between Germany

933
00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:30,480
Speaker 1: and England. So I don't think that Bayern much should

934
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:33,239
Speaker 1: even be close to minus two fifty on the road.

935
00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:35,239
Speaker 1: I mean other projections side, it's like five point thirty

936
00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:37,640
Speaker 1: eight has them only a fifty two percent. Info Goalie

937
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:42,359
Speaker 1: only hasn't met fifty eight percent. So I'm gonna hop

938
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:45,160
Speaker 1: on the pain train and take Benefica plus one and

939
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:48,080
Speaker 1: a half at minus one twenty five. And you know, eventually,

940
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:49,680
Speaker 1: maybe I'll wave the white flag on Byron.

941
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:52,799
Speaker 2: But not this week, I guess, no, not this week.

942
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:55,399
Speaker 4: Definitely not this week, my friend, I like Benfica seven

943
00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:57,000
Speaker 4: to one on the money line. You can't keep me

944
00:41:57,040 --> 00:42:00,440
Speaker 4: away from that one. This team is a very solid defensively.

945
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 4: Maybe you know, there's a hope in hell that they

946
00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:04,920
Speaker 4: can just keep this Buyern attack. Maybe they catch him

947
00:42:04,960 --> 00:42:08,360
Speaker 4: on a sleepy day in Portugal or something, Anthony, what

948
00:42:08,400 --> 00:42:08,799
Speaker 4: about you?

949
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:12,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, Look, I love to play against Byron more often

950
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:14,360
Speaker 3: than not. They tend to be a very overrated public favorite.

951
00:42:14,360 --> 00:42:14,920
Speaker 5: And here we are.

952
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:19,000
Speaker 3: They thrash Barcelona, they thrash Dinamo Kiev, and they're an

953
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:22,000
Speaker 3: overvalued favorite here. And like Bja mentioned, the thing for

954
00:42:22,040 --> 00:42:24,680
Speaker 3: me is every projection system I look at, from BJ's

955
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 3: numbers to what I have to what five point thirty

956
00:42:27,040 --> 00:42:29,560
Speaker 3: eight in INFO goal both have all have Byron under

957
00:42:29,600 --> 00:42:33,000
Speaker 3: sixty two percent to win this game. The implied odds

958
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:35,520
Speaker 3: of a minus two fifty favorite a whole lot higher

959
00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:38,640
Speaker 3: than sixty two percent, closer to seventy seventy five. So

960
00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 3: you know, will I feel good about this game when

961
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:42,640
Speaker 3: Byron is up a goal in the eighty eighth minute.

962
00:42:42,760 --> 00:42:44,840
Speaker 3: Still know, if they're up a goal in the in

963
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:47,120
Speaker 3: the stoppage time, I still won't feel good about my

964
00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:48,560
Speaker 3: plus one and a half, just because of how potent

965
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 3: this Byron team can be. Lewandowski hasn't always been a

966
00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:53,440
Speaker 3: great finisher, which is part of the regression that has

967
00:42:53,440 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 3: come for Byron a little bit offensively this year. They're

968
00:42:56,239 --> 00:42:58,480
Speaker 3: just creating a ton of chances. He's always been on

969
00:42:58,600 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 3: like an average finisher until the last two years when

970
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:03,480
Speaker 3: he became this like dynamo finisher out of nowhere, and

971
00:43:03,560 --> 00:43:07,440
Speaker 3: it surprisingly has not lasted. But the thing for me

972
00:43:07,480 --> 00:43:10,360
Speaker 3: with Benfica BJ already mentioned how stout they are defensively.

973
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:12,759
Speaker 3: For me, it's their counter attacking ability, which they showed

974
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:15,480
Speaker 3: against Barcelona that I didn't really expect them to have.

975
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:17,759
Speaker 3: I had Barcelona in that game, I lost. I did

976
00:43:17,800 --> 00:43:21,719
Speaker 3: not expect them to show as much potency and competency

977
00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:25,719
Speaker 3: in counterattacking that Barcelona team, and I think they can

978
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:29,920
Speaker 3: find some success counterattacking through this Bayern midfield. They haven't

979
00:43:29,920 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 3: looked particularly vulnerable, but I still think with the same

980
00:43:32,160 --> 00:43:34,480
Speaker 3: almost the same personnel as last year, they're going to

981
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:36,080
Speaker 3: have some defensive issues down the road.

982
00:43:36,120 --> 00:43:38,200
Speaker 5: Maybe that comes on Wednesday afternoon.

983
00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:40,160
Speaker 3: Hopefully it does and Benfica can get on the board,

984
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:41,840
Speaker 3: because I think we're gonna need a goal from Benfica

985
00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:43,359
Speaker 3: to get this plus one and a half in. But

986
00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:45,120
Speaker 3: I agree, I'm on plus one and a half at

987
00:43:45,160 --> 00:43:46,399
Speaker 3: minus one thirty or better.

988
00:43:47,840 --> 00:43:50,759
Speaker 4: The twelve forty five pm kickoff in this group is

989
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:55,560
Speaker 4: Barcelona minus four hundred. They take on Dina Hokiev ten

990
00:43:55,600 --> 00:44:00,800
Speaker 4: to one. The draw plus five fifty. We always talk about.

991
00:44:00,560 --> 00:44:01,560
Speaker 2: Betting on teams.

992
00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:03,839
Speaker 4: Who are you betting on? Do you want to bet

993
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:06,920
Speaker 4: on this team? I'm looking at this one as I

994
00:44:06,960 --> 00:44:10,040
Speaker 4: want to bet against Barcelona. They make me sick. I

995
00:44:10,120 --> 00:44:12,200
Speaker 4: can't get them right betting on in the season because

996
00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 4: I keep treating them as if they are Barcelona of

997
00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 4: past years. They are not. They are not that good.

998
00:44:18,800 --> 00:44:21,840
Speaker 4: I think they're pretty mediocre. Actually, So if you offered

999
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:24,319
Speaker 4: me ten to one against the team, that is a

1000
00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:29,000
Speaker 4: paper tiger and mediocre team that has just not shown anything.

1001
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:31,120
Speaker 4: I'm going to take the ten to one, So give

1002
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:35,520
Speaker 4: me Dinamo Kiev plus one thousand, ten to one.

1003
00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:36,600
Speaker 2: However you want to look at it.

1004
00:44:37,239 --> 00:44:39,359
Speaker 4: They're going to lose, but it's like, I just can't

1005
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:42,000
Speaker 4: pass up this number against Barcelona right now, BJ what

1006
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:42,440
Speaker 4: about you?

1007
00:44:42,640 --> 00:44:43,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm actually gonn look at the total for this.

1008
00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:45,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go under three goals a plus one on five. Now,

1009
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:49,640
Speaker 1: Barcelona's obviously not the offensive powerhouse than when they had

1010
00:44:49,680 --> 00:44:51,719
Speaker 1: Leonel Messi. I mean they're only averaging one point five

1011
00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:54,520
Speaker 1: to nine non penalty expected goals for match this season,

1012
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:56,799
Speaker 1: when last year they averaged two point zero five non

1013
00:44:56,840 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 1: penalty goals per match. But defensively they've been really I

1014
00:45:00,680 --> 00:45:03,640
Speaker 1: mean they only allow point eight nine non penalty expected

1015
00:45:03,680 --> 00:45:06,319
Speaker 1: goals per match, they have the fewest touches in their

1016
00:45:06,320 --> 00:45:09,120
Speaker 1: own final third, they have the best pressure success rate,

1017
00:45:09,160 --> 00:45:12,280
Speaker 1: and they've allowed the third fewest shot creating actions defensively

1018
00:45:12,280 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 1: in their first two matches. Yeah, they were not great

1019
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:18,160
Speaker 1: against Bayern Munich and Benefica, but Deno o Keev is

1020
00:45:18,200 --> 00:45:20,680
Speaker 1: not an offensive powerhouse. They only created point nine to

1021
00:45:20,680 --> 00:45:23,080
Speaker 1: one expect goals in their first two Champions League matches.

1022
00:45:23,360 --> 00:45:25,279
Speaker 1: They only average one point eight one expected goals per

1023
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:28,280
Speaker 1: match in the Ukrainian Premier League, which is eleventh best

1024
00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:32,279
Speaker 1: or eleventh most difficult based on UEFA coefficients. It's going

1025
00:45:32,320 --> 00:45:34,880
Speaker 1: to be difficult for Barcelona to create a lot of

1026
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:37,239
Speaker 1: high quality chances. And I only have two point twenty

1027
00:45:37,280 --> 00:45:39,879
Speaker 1: six goals projected for this match, so I think there's

1028
00:45:39,880 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 1: some value on under three goals at plus one oh five.

1029
00:45:42,760 --> 00:45:45,440
Speaker 4: This Barcelona team also might have quit on its manager,

1030
00:45:45,520 --> 00:45:49,240
Speaker 4: Ronald Cooman, who's basically been shown the door, but Barcelona

1031
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:50,880
Speaker 4: just doesn't have the money to replace him. They just

1032
00:45:50,920 --> 00:45:52,879
Speaker 4: know he's going to leave. So I don't know how

1033
00:45:52,880 --> 00:45:54,759
Speaker 4: this team gets up for it. Like I said, with

1034
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:56,839
Speaker 4: all the things that are going wrong at the camp,

1035
00:45:56,960 --> 00:45:58,560
Speaker 4: new if you're going to offer me ten to one

1036
00:45:58,719 --> 00:45:59,960
Speaker 4: to go against them, I'll take it.

1037
00:46:00,320 --> 00:46:01,640
Speaker 2: Anthony, come join me.

1038
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:05,840
Speaker 3: I'm buying low on Barcelona, not in this match but overall,

1039
00:46:06,239 --> 00:46:08,600
Speaker 3: and I'm going down with the ship. You know, a

1040
00:46:08,640 --> 00:46:10,799
Speaker 3: couple of years ago, like I was the top guy

1041
00:46:10,880 --> 00:46:13,920
Speaker 3: saying Barcelona cliff is coming like something that it's been

1042
00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:16,200
Speaker 3: in the numbers for years, Like the minute Leo Messi

1043
00:46:16,280 --> 00:46:17,720
Speaker 3: leaves this club, they're gonna fall off a cliff.

1044
00:46:17,840 --> 00:46:19,640
Speaker 5: But the cliff has not come that fast.

1045
00:46:19,920 --> 00:46:24,520
Speaker 3: Like, there's signs that this team can be up reasonable.

1046
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:27,120
Speaker 3: You know, top five team in Spain who's pretty good

1047
00:46:27,120 --> 00:46:30,040
Speaker 3: in the Champions League and nowhere near the quality to

1048
00:46:30,040 --> 00:46:32,080
Speaker 3: win it or come close to even probably advancing out

1049
00:46:32,080 --> 00:46:34,879
Speaker 3: of the round of sixteen. But at plus one seventy five,

1050
00:46:35,480 --> 00:46:37,680
Speaker 3: I think it's worth a flyer on Barcelona to win

1051
00:46:37,719 --> 00:46:40,120
Speaker 3: this group. When you look at the matchups here, Byron

1052
00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:42,280
Speaker 3: is gonna play Barsia on the last.

1053
00:46:42,120 --> 00:46:42,719
Speaker 5: Day of the group.

1054
00:46:42,880 --> 00:46:45,359
Speaker 3: Byron will have likely already clinched the group. They will

1055
00:46:45,360 --> 00:46:48,200
Speaker 3: have likely beaten Benfica twice and route to clinching said group,

1056
00:46:48,440 --> 00:46:50,680
Speaker 3: which basically means that Barcelona just needs to do the

1057
00:46:50,719 --> 00:46:54,080
Speaker 3: double against Kiev, get a result against Benfica, and then

1058
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:56,120
Speaker 3: win on the final day or get a result against

1059
00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:59,080
Speaker 3: Byron to get that job done. They're going to be

1060
00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:01,759
Speaker 3: at home against Benfica in the second match. There'll be

1061
00:47:01,840 --> 00:47:04,600
Speaker 3: pretty significant favorites in that one. The floor has not

1062
00:47:04,760 --> 00:47:07,879
Speaker 3: quite fallen out yet. It can, but it hasn't yet,

1063
00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:10,160
Speaker 3: and so I'm going to try to catch the falling knife,

1064
00:47:10,200 --> 00:47:12,600
Speaker 3: as they say, I low on Barcelona here.

1065
00:47:12,560 --> 00:47:13,640
Speaker 5: To advance out of the group.

1066
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:16,000
Speaker 3: Now, if they lose, they're done. That would be the

1067
00:47:16,000 --> 00:47:17,640
Speaker 3: fastest bet of future has ever died.

1068
00:47:18,920 --> 00:47:22,160
Speaker 4: All right, let's move on Group J. Salsburg, Jesse Marsh's

1069
00:47:22,200 --> 00:47:24,920
Speaker 4: old team. They're top of the group right now at

1070
00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:28,480
Speaker 4: four points, Via at two points, Wolfsburg at two LIL

1071
00:47:28,760 --> 00:47:29,600
Speaker 4: at one point.

1072
00:47:30,040 --> 00:47:33,960
Speaker 2: We said coming into this Champions League season.

1073
00:47:33,680 --> 00:47:35,640
Speaker 4: And we were not alone in this thinking obviously that

1074
00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:37,200
Speaker 4: this would be the most wide open group.

1075
00:47:37,640 --> 00:47:39,240
Speaker 2: It's certainly playing out that way.

1076
00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:41,640
Speaker 4: We'll start with the twelve forty five pm kickoff between

1077
00:47:41,680 --> 00:47:45,480
Speaker 4: Salsburg their plus one twenty five favorites against Wolfsburg, who

1078
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:48,200
Speaker 4: are plus two hundred to draw plus two fifty. I

1079
00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:50,520
Speaker 4: don't really see much in this one. I think this

1080
00:47:50,560 --> 00:47:53,480
Speaker 4: one might be pretty quick to go around bj No.

1081
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:55,600
Speaker 1: I just want to rant about Salzburg honestly, because they're

1082
00:47:55,600 --> 00:47:58,799
Speaker 1: really pissing off right now. Five penalties. They've had five

1083
00:47:58,800 --> 00:48:01,200
Speaker 1: penalties and two matches, so yeah, this is a no

1084
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:05,200
Speaker 1: play for me. And if Salzburg gets another penalty, I'm

1085
00:48:05,239 --> 00:48:06,880
Speaker 1: going to throw my computer through a window.

1086
00:48:07,160 --> 00:48:09,000
Speaker 4: All Right, we'll kick it over to the three pm

1087
00:48:09,080 --> 00:48:12,319
Speaker 4: kickoff between Sevilla their plus one ten Lil plus two

1088
00:48:12,440 --> 00:48:14,600
Speaker 4: sixty the draw plus two twenty five.

1089
00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:15,799
Speaker 2: I like the draw.

1090
00:48:15,880 --> 00:48:17,920
Speaker 4: I think there's going to be a defensive showdown. The

1091
00:48:18,120 --> 00:48:21,040
Speaker 4: over under is pretty low. I like betting Sevilla draws.

1092
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:24,520
Speaker 4: Their fun team to watch, tied other teams at won one. Anthony,

1093
00:48:24,520 --> 00:48:25,680
Speaker 4: what about you?

1094
00:48:25,680 --> 00:48:27,239
Speaker 5: It might be the first person I've ever heard that

1095
00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:29,080
Speaker 5: said Sevilla is fun to watch.

1096
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:31,040
Speaker 2: If you have the draw. They're a lot of fun.

1097
00:48:31,120 --> 00:48:33,360
Speaker 3: Yes, when it is one to one late and Seville

1098
00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:36,359
Speaker 3: are just swinging in crosses and nobody's there, uh, and

1099
00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:37,120
Speaker 3: they have no shot.

1100
00:48:37,200 --> 00:48:38,839
Speaker 4: That is they're gonna ad as a drug to make

1101
00:48:38,920 --> 00:48:41,680
Speaker 4: that exact style of soccer with a draw ticket come on.

1102
00:48:42,680 --> 00:48:44,600
Speaker 1: So you'll get a double dose with LIL on this match.

1103
00:48:45,239 --> 00:48:46,680
Speaker 5: Lel stinks.

1104
00:48:46,840 --> 00:48:49,560
Speaker 3: They were not good when they won League ON last year.

1105
00:48:50,120 --> 00:48:52,480
Speaker 3: They have not been great in League On this year.

1106
00:48:52,760 --> 00:48:55,239
Speaker 3: They lost the goalkeeper. The goalkeeper performance has been significantly

1107
00:48:55,239 --> 00:48:57,799
Speaker 3: worse this year. I have to get Seville here. They

1108
00:48:57,840 --> 00:49:00,640
Speaker 3: haven't looked great in the Champions League, but they've looked

1109
00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:03,080
Speaker 3: much better in Spain. Spain, they have the number one

1110
00:49:03,200 --> 00:49:04,960
Speaker 3: expected goal difference in the league. Theyre almost a goal

1111
00:49:05,000 --> 00:49:07,759
Speaker 3: better than their opponents and expected goals per ninety Right now,

1112
00:49:08,080 --> 00:49:10,520
Speaker 3: I think that we're dealing with a severe team that

1113
00:49:11,280 --> 00:49:14,040
Speaker 3: is a little bit undervalued here because of the low total.

1114
00:49:14,280 --> 00:49:16,800
Speaker 3: But I am not buying into the wal defense whatsoever.

1115
00:49:17,120 --> 00:49:20,280
Speaker 3: So give me Sevilla on the money line. Anything plus

1116
00:49:20,280 --> 00:49:20,960
Speaker 3: money's fine.

1117
00:49:21,360 --> 00:49:24,399
Speaker 1: One thing, Lil's defense actually is due for a lot

1118
00:49:24,440 --> 00:49:28,040
Speaker 1: of positive aggression. You know. Obviously, they've allowed fifteen goals

1119
00:49:28,040 --> 00:49:30,400
Speaker 1: this season. They have the lowest non penalty expected goles

1120
00:49:30,400 --> 00:49:33,200
Speaker 1: allowed in league on seven point two four. So the

1121
00:49:33,239 --> 00:49:35,840
Speaker 1: defense is still there. It's just they're just getting really unlucky.

1122
00:49:35,880 --> 00:49:38,560
Speaker 1: And offensively they've actually been better, you know, they're averaging

1123
00:49:38,680 --> 00:49:40,759
Speaker 1: like almost one point seven expected goals been last season

1124
00:49:40,840 --> 00:49:43,480
Speaker 1: they won league on with like averaging almost like one

1125
00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:47,440
Speaker 1: point three. So for some reason like losing your manager

1126
00:49:47,520 --> 00:49:50,239
Speaker 1: and your top goalkeeper, they've somehow their metrics have gotten better.

1127
00:49:50,280 --> 00:49:52,880
Speaker 1: But they're somehow sitting in eleventh place as opposed to

1128
00:49:52,920 --> 00:49:54,680
Speaker 1: last year. So maybe it's just a little bit of

1129
00:49:54,760 --> 00:49:57,600
Speaker 1: justice about how much they overperformed last year. But yeah,

1130
00:49:57,640 --> 00:49:59,000
Speaker 1: I mean this, if you want to bet to draw,

1131
00:49:59,040 --> 00:50:01,120
Speaker 1: these two teams are just like you know, the perfect

1132
00:50:02,040 --> 00:50:02,960
Speaker 1: mixture for the draw.

1133
00:50:03,040 --> 00:50:08,200
Speaker 4: Cocktail five three real win incoming. After all that talk

1134
00:50:08,239 --> 00:50:11,000
Speaker 4: about the defenses and the draw, let's move on Group Ah.

1135
00:50:11,160 --> 00:50:13,760
Speaker 4: This one right now is top by Juventus with six points,

1136
00:50:13,840 --> 00:50:17,520
Speaker 4: Chelsea at three, sen at Saint Petersburg three, the Swedes

1137
00:50:17,719 --> 00:50:20,799
Speaker 4: Malmo at the foot of the table with zero. We'll

1138
00:50:20,800 --> 00:50:23,680
Speaker 4: start with the Chelsea Mamo kickoff. This is three pm

1139
00:50:23,719 --> 00:50:29,279
Speaker 4: on Wednesday. Chelsea prohibitive favorites minus eleven hundreds. Malmo they're

1140
00:50:29,320 --> 00:50:31,920
Speaker 4: thirty to one. You can get teams to win the

1141
00:50:31,920 --> 00:50:35,480
Speaker 4: Stanley Cup or the NBA Championship at the same odds

1142
00:50:35,960 --> 00:50:37,480
Speaker 4: and they would be considered long shot. Or you can

1143
00:50:37,520 --> 00:50:39,960
Speaker 4: bet Malmo. Maybe they win one ninety minute game of

1144
00:50:40,000 --> 00:50:43,200
Speaker 4: soccer at thirty to one. The draw is ten to one.

1145
00:50:43,719 --> 00:50:47,239
Speaker 4: Before you guys go, I'm gonna say that I'm just

1146
00:50:47,280 --> 00:50:50,800
Speaker 4: gonna have to bet this Malmo team. And it's basically

1147
00:50:50,840 --> 00:50:55,120
Speaker 4: just because, look, Chelsea's been not that good the past

1148
00:50:55,160 --> 00:50:58,080
Speaker 4: month and a half. Let's say in the Premier League.

1149
00:50:58,120 --> 00:51:01,560
Speaker 4: They've been getting very lucky with their goaltender Edward Mendy,

1150
00:51:01,600 --> 00:51:05,560
Speaker 4: who's spectacular. He stole them three points against Brentford last season.

1151
00:51:06,000 --> 00:51:08,760
Speaker 4: I think we all want to bet against this Chelsea

1152
00:51:08,760 --> 00:51:11,200
Speaker 4: team because I think that the market perception is probably

1153
00:51:11,200 --> 00:51:14,040
Speaker 4: too high in them. They are struggling to create and

1154
00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:17,880
Speaker 4: to defend scoring chances at the moment. Unfortunately, the first

1155
00:51:17,880 --> 00:51:21,160
Speaker 4: two opportunities to fade Chelsea are Malmo at thirty to

1156
00:51:21,160 --> 00:51:23,000
Speaker 4: one and then we get Nord City in the Premier

1157
00:51:23,080 --> 00:51:25,719
Speaker 4: League next to this coming weekend. So I'm just gonna

1158
00:51:25,719 --> 00:51:29,000
Speaker 4: bite the bullet and donate some money to a sports

1159
00:51:29,000 --> 00:51:30,759
Speaker 4: book on Mamo at thirty to one.

1160
00:51:31,160 --> 00:51:34,239
Speaker 1: BJ sounds like a good parlay to me. Malmo and

1161
00:51:34,280 --> 00:51:38,560
Speaker 1: Norwich confessions, but no, Malmo's bad. I took them against

1162
00:51:38,600 --> 00:51:42,840
Speaker 1: Senate and it was not fun. They just can't do

1163
00:51:42,960 --> 00:51:46,600
Speaker 1: anything offensively and they are just wide open when on

1164
00:51:46,680 --> 00:51:49,920
Speaker 1: counter attack like it is. It is bad. Even if

1165
00:51:49,920 --> 00:51:52,000
Speaker 1: you saw them played Juventus. I mean there were so

1166
00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:54,160
Speaker 1: many times where Juventus had like two or three. It

1167
00:51:54,239 --> 00:51:55,759
Speaker 1: was like almost like a three on one, like four

1168
00:51:55,800 --> 00:52:00,200
Speaker 1: different times going forward an attack. So this one's to

1169
00:52:00,200 --> 00:52:03,000
Speaker 1: stay away from me. We'll just watch Chelsea continue to

1170
00:52:03,040 --> 00:52:07,719
Speaker 1: overperform and we'll find another spot to beat them. But

1171
00:52:08,120 --> 00:52:10,000
Speaker 1: you know, for now, I mean, I m might just

1172
00:52:10,040 --> 00:52:12,960
Speaker 1: throw a dollar on a Malmo Norwich Parlay.

1173
00:52:13,280 --> 00:52:13,920
Speaker 2: You're patient.

1174
00:52:14,080 --> 00:52:16,680
Speaker 4: You're much more patient guy than I am. But look,

1175
00:52:16,719 --> 00:52:19,920
Speaker 4: here's here's some defensive numbers for Chelsea. Right, two point

1176
00:52:19,920 --> 00:52:22,759
Speaker 4: one six expected goals against against Brentford, one point five

1177
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:26,280
Speaker 4: against Southampton, a decent performance against you vent this under

1178
00:52:26,320 --> 00:52:29,479
Speaker 4: an expectable point eighty four and then one point seventy

1179
00:52:29,520 --> 00:52:32,080
Speaker 4: three against City. I think Mamo might be able to

1180
00:52:32,080 --> 00:52:35,280
Speaker 4: score a goal here, Anthony.

1181
00:52:34,200 --> 00:52:37,440
Speaker 3: Yes, that's where we're going plus two twenty five to score.

1182
00:52:38,200 --> 00:52:41,320
Speaker 3: I will be betting it again this weekend. This Chelsea

1183
00:52:41,440 --> 00:52:46,040
Speaker 3: defense historically good, historically good and I I mean bj

1184
00:52:46,080 --> 00:52:47,400
Speaker 3: and I played a lot of unders last year on

1185
00:52:47,480 --> 00:52:50,160
Speaker 3: Chelsea and it was it was a profitable situation.

1186
00:52:50,239 --> 00:52:52,279
Speaker 5: But this year the regression.

1187
00:52:52,320 --> 00:52:54,960
Speaker 3: And look, people will tell me it's because their goalie

1188
00:52:55,000 --> 00:52:58,160
Speaker 3: is really good, or it's because you know, they always

1189
00:52:58,160 --> 00:53:00,080
Speaker 3: have numbers behind the ball, they don't concede high qual

1190
00:53:00,080 --> 00:53:00,720
Speaker 3: any chances.

1191
00:53:00,960 --> 00:53:02,000
Speaker 5: Look, all that is bunk.

1192
00:53:02,200 --> 00:53:05,359
Speaker 3: The history has shown that a team will run very,

1193
00:53:05,480 --> 00:53:07,600
Speaker 3: very close in the long term to their expected goals

1194
00:53:07,680 --> 00:53:11,920
Speaker 3: against numbers. Now four quality of finishing can have marginal effects,

1195
00:53:12,040 --> 00:53:14,840
Speaker 3: you know, five to ten percent in the long term,

1196
00:53:14,880 --> 00:53:16,759
Speaker 3: where a team will finish above their numbers or below

1197
00:53:16,800 --> 00:53:18,480
Speaker 3: their numbers. If you have a bunch of really high

1198
00:53:18,560 --> 00:53:20,759
Speaker 3: quality finishers, but a defense does not do it.

1199
00:53:20,800 --> 00:53:22,839
Speaker 5: They don't. There's there's like two teams that you can

1200
00:53:22,880 --> 00:53:23,520
Speaker 5: make an argument for.

1201
00:53:23,600 --> 00:53:25,319
Speaker 3: One is Altico Madrid, and they happen to have the

1202
00:53:25,320 --> 00:53:27,640
Speaker 3: best goalie in the world and a system that prioritizes

1203
00:53:27,840 --> 00:53:30,280
Speaker 3: getting guys behind the ball and blocking a lot of shots.

1204
00:53:30,960 --> 00:53:32,440
Speaker 3: Other than that, there's not a lot of a lot

1205
00:53:32,440 --> 00:53:34,800
Speaker 3: of manager Lucian Favre is like a guy who's notoriously

1206
00:53:34,800 --> 00:53:37,799
Speaker 3: done that. But I don't believe Thomas Tookle has like

1207
00:53:37,840 --> 00:53:40,160
Speaker 3: found the magic sauce to like concede a bunch of

1208
00:53:40,239 --> 00:53:42,160
Speaker 3: chances and not actually concede a goal. And look, I

1209
00:53:42,200 --> 00:53:44,719
Speaker 3: know Mamo stinks going forward. They're the team I mentioned

1210
00:53:44,760 --> 00:53:47,040
Speaker 3: earlier with Sheriff, Like there are teams in this league

1211
00:53:47,080 --> 00:53:49,279
Speaker 3: who come into the Champions League expecting like they're used

1212
00:53:49,280 --> 00:53:50,640
Speaker 3: to having the ball, and then they don't have the ball.

1213
00:53:50,640 --> 00:53:51,040
Speaker 2: They stink.

1214
00:53:51,280 --> 00:53:52,879
Speaker 5: That's Malmo. I mean, they're really bad.

1215
00:53:53,400 --> 00:53:55,000
Speaker 3: But at plus two twenty five, to get a goal,

1216
00:53:55,040 --> 00:53:57,120
Speaker 3: all you need is one fluke, one chance, one counter,

1217
00:53:57,239 --> 00:53:59,480
Speaker 3: one set piece. At plus three twenty five, for a

1218
00:53:59,520 --> 00:54:01,960
Speaker 3: team that is do to concede that I will probably

1219
00:54:01,960 --> 00:54:04,080
Speaker 3: break something if they don't concede soon from the chance

1220
00:54:04,120 --> 00:54:06,080
Speaker 3: they've been allowing. Give me plus two twenty five on

1221
00:54:06,120 --> 00:54:07,359
Speaker 3: Malmotos to score a goal.

1222
00:54:07,600 --> 00:54:08,400
Speaker 5: I want to get.

1223
00:54:08,239 --> 00:54:10,600
Speaker 3: Behind this Chelsea attack because they're very good, and I

1224
00:54:10,600 --> 00:54:13,360
Speaker 3: think they're due to start putting some numbers up and

1225
00:54:13,400 --> 00:54:16,680
Speaker 3: I think they're going to but I really need to

1226
00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:19,160
Speaker 3: fade this Chelsea defense with every bone.

1227
00:54:18,920 --> 00:54:19,520
Speaker 5: In my body.

1228
00:54:19,840 --> 00:54:22,680
Speaker 4: It sounds like you guys are tucking yourselves into a

1229
00:54:22,719 --> 00:54:26,439
Speaker 4: piece of thirty to one on Malmo is coming, of course.

1230
00:54:26,440 --> 00:54:29,320
Speaker 4: All right, let's move on. Juventus plus one ten favorites

1231
00:54:29,320 --> 00:54:31,680
Speaker 4: against En at Saint Petersburg. The draw is plus two

1232
00:54:31,760 --> 00:54:34,680
Speaker 4: ten sen at plus two ninety three pm. This will

1233
00:54:34,719 --> 00:54:36,200
Speaker 4: be the last game we talk about because it's the

1234
00:54:36,239 --> 00:54:38,440
Speaker 4: last game on match week three. I've got nothing on

1235
00:54:38,440 --> 00:54:41,000
Speaker 4: this one. I might look at the draw, but probably

1236
00:54:41,320 --> 00:54:42,160
Speaker 4: stay away BJ.

1237
00:54:42,360 --> 00:54:42,920
Speaker 2: What about you.

1238
00:54:43,120 --> 00:54:45,160
Speaker 1: I want to make a case present it in this match.

1239
00:54:45,200 --> 00:54:47,880
Speaker 1: I mean, first off, they looked really good against Malmo.

1240
00:54:48,280 --> 00:54:51,160
Speaker 1: Like we already spoke about four nothing went at home.

1241
00:54:51,239 --> 00:54:53,000
Speaker 1: I'll created them two point eight one expected goals to

1242
00:54:53,080 --> 00:54:57,080
Speaker 1: point four to five. But Secondly, they've been dominating the

1243
00:54:57,160 --> 00:54:59,480
Speaker 1: Russian Premier League. They obviously they lost their last two

1244
00:54:59,520 --> 00:55:03,680
Speaker 1: matches to Sochi and Arsenal Tua, but expected goals is

1245
00:55:03,719 --> 00:55:06,160
Speaker 1: why we can't just take results at face value. Yeah,

1246
00:55:06,160 --> 00:55:08,040
Speaker 1: they lost those two matches, but they have created both

1247
00:55:08,040 --> 00:55:10,880
Speaker 1: of those teams five point two expected goals to one

1248
00:55:10,960 --> 00:55:13,080
Speaker 1: point seventy three, and in the Russian Premier League this

1249
00:55:13,080 --> 00:55:15,279
Speaker 1: season they're averaging two point one to one expected goals

1250
00:55:15,280 --> 00:55:18,120
Speaker 1: for nationally allowing one point zero eight. Malcolm, the former

1251
00:55:18,239 --> 00:55:21,640
Speaker 1: Bordeaux and Barcelona attacking midfielder, has a point seven to

1252
00:55:21,640 --> 00:55:25,279
Speaker 1: two expected goal plus expected assist per ninety rate in

1253
00:55:25,360 --> 00:55:27,000
Speaker 1: the Russian Premier League this season. It will be a

1254
00:55:27,040 --> 00:55:29,840
Speaker 1: problem for events back line. I mean listen Vents's offensive

1255
00:55:29,880 --> 00:55:33,000
Speaker 1: numbers have not been as good since Chrishierroonaldo left. They

1256
00:55:33,000 --> 00:55:36,000
Speaker 1: averaged two non penalty expected goals per match last season.

1257
00:55:36,000 --> 00:55:38,080
Speaker 1: In this season it's down to one point seventy five

1258
00:55:38,120 --> 00:55:40,840
Speaker 1: and in Syria A they're eighth in shot creating actions,

1259
00:55:40,880 --> 00:55:43,879
Speaker 1: tenth and touches inside the opponent's penalty era and tenth

1260
00:55:43,920 --> 00:55:47,560
Speaker 1: in box entries. Now, as far as their defense is concerned,

1261
00:55:47,600 --> 00:55:51,080
Speaker 1: they've been Okay, not great. Eight point eight non penalty

1262
00:55:51,120 --> 00:55:53,640
Speaker 1: expected goals allowed in eight matches, but they've allowed the

1263
00:55:53,640 --> 00:55:56,440
Speaker 1: third most touches in their own final third and they

1264
00:55:56,480 --> 00:55:59,280
Speaker 1: just lost the expected goals battle to Roma despite winning

1265
00:55:59,360 --> 00:56:02,759
Speaker 1: one nothing on And this is another weather situation. It's

1266
00:56:02,760 --> 00:56:05,200
Speaker 1: also going to be thirty eight degrees in raining in

1267
00:56:05,239 --> 00:56:07,799
Speaker 1: Saint Petersburg on Wednesday night when it's in the mid

1268
00:56:07,880 --> 00:56:11,960
Speaker 1: sixties in Turin this week. So I have this match

1269
00:56:12,320 --> 00:56:15,239
Speaker 1: projected closer to a pick them given you know events

1270
00:56:15,280 --> 00:56:19,520
Speaker 1: struggles offensively. So yeah, give me zenate plus half a

1271
00:56:19,520 --> 00:56:20,719
Speaker 1: goal at minus one twenty five.

1272
00:56:21,719 --> 00:56:25,480
Speaker 4: That sounds like a lovely, lovely bet. All right, let's

1273
00:56:25,520 --> 00:56:27,799
Speaker 4: move on to the final section of the program. This

1274
00:56:27,840 --> 00:56:30,439
Speaker 4: will be I'll give you each thirty seconds to talk

1275
00:56:30,520 --> 00:56:33,200
Speaker 4: about your best bet for match week three of the

1276
00:56:33,280 --> 00:56:34,200
Speaker 4: Champions League.

1277
00:56:34,320 --> 00:56:36,040
Speaker 2: Anthony Yugo First.

1278
00:56:35,719 --> 00:56:37,880
Speaker 3: Life saying plus one and a half minus one thirty

1279
00:56:38,000 --> 00:56:39,800
Speaker 3: like it to minus one thirty five. The thing with

1280
00:56:40,800 --> 00:56:43,640
Speaker 3: PSG in this game is that they're incredibly overrated. They

1281
00:56:43,680 --> 00:56:46,359
Speaker 3: have looked very vulnerable in defensive transition. They're expected goals

1282
00:56:46,440 --> 00:56:48,640
Speaker 3: numbers in France are not what they should be given

1283
00:56:48,680 --> 00:56:51,480
Speaker 3: the talent on the team. They have serious issues defending

1284
00:56:51,480 --> 00:56:54,080
Speaker 3: without the ball because of the lack of defensive work

1285
00:56:54,080 --> 00:56:57,759
Speaker 3: that inmbape Neymar and Messi do and Leipzig despite some

1286
00:56:57,800 --> 00:57:01,160
Speaker 3: pretty poor defensive numbers in the Bundesliga, the underlying numbers

1287
00:57:01,200 --> 00:57:03,520
Speaker 3: that are underlying those expected goals numbers are a little

1288
00:57:03,560 --> 00:57:05,960
Speaker 3: bit better than that. I expect them to turn the

1289
00:57:06,000 --> 00:57:08,520
Speaker 3: corner here, keep this match competitive. It's a huge over

1290
00:57:08,600 --> 00:57:10,520
Speaker 3: adjustment to last year when these two teams played. The

1291
00:57:10,600 --> 00:57:12,960
Speaker 3: numbers should not be that much different. I like Leipzig

1292
00:57:12,960 --> 00:57:14,640
Speaker 3: to keep this game closed within a goal and a half.

1293
00:57:14,960 --> 00:57:17,280
Speaker 1: Beija, yeah, I'm gonna go with the squares play on

1294
00:57:17,280 --> 00:57:19,280
Speaker 1: the board, I asked Dortmuand over three and a half.

1295
00:57:19,360 --> 00:57:22,440
Speaker 1: I mean I acts as an absolute offensive Juggernauts two

1296
00:57:22,480 --> 00:57:24,520
Speaker 1: point twenty six expected goals per match in the Ara

1297
00:57:24,600 --> 00:57:28,800
Speaker 1: de Visa. Dortmund didn't look great against Sporting Lisbond only

1298
00:57:28,840 --> 00:57:30,920
Speaker 1: created a point two three expected goals, but Earl Holland

1299
00:57:30,960 --> 00:57:33,800
Speaker 1: was out. Earl Holland's going to be back for this match. Dortmannd,

1300
00:57:33,840 --> 00:57:36,520
Speaker 1: averaging one point eight four non penalty expected goals per

1301
00:57:36,560 --> 00:57:40,280
Speaker 1: match in the Bundesliga, already created sixteen big scoring chances.

1302
00:57:40,520 --> 00:57:43,160
Speaker 1: But Dorman's defense does have some issues right now. You know,

1303
00:57:43,200 --> 00:57:46,440
Speaker 1: in their three biggest matches against Frankfurt, Hoffenheim and Gladbach,

1304
00:57:46,480 --> 00:57:49,080
Speaker 1: they allowed a total of five point eight two expected

1305
00:57:49,120 --> 00:57:51,480
Speaker 1: goals and in total for the season they've allowed eleven

1306
00:57:51,480 --> 00:57:53,560
Speaker 1: big scoring chances. So this is going to be a

1307
00:57:53,680 --> 00:57:56,120
Speaker 1: very open game. There's going to be just chances galore

1308
00:57:56,160 --> 00:57:58,360
Speaker 1: at both ends of the pitch. I have three point

1309
00:57:58,400 --> 00:58:00,720
Speaker 1: three three goals projected for this one, so I love

1310
00:58:00,800 --> 00:58:02,400
Speaker 1: three over three and a half goals and plus one

1311
00:58:02,440 --> 00:58:02,919
Speaker 1: twenty five.

1312
00:58:03,400 --> 00:58:06,280
Speaker 4: Something people often forget about the squarest bet on the

1313
00:58:06,320 --> 00:58:08,880
Speaker 4: board is it's also the most fun. That one will

1314
00:58:08,880 --> 00:58:10,800
Speaker 4: be a lot of fun. I'm gonna go with my

1315
00:58:10,920 --> 00:58:13,280
Speaker 4: Barcelona fate. I'm Dina Okiev at ten to one is

1316
00:58:13,280 --> 00:58:15,240
Speaker 4: my favorite bet because look, it's the first.

1317
00:58:15,040 --> 00:58:16,120
Speaker 2: Episode of Wonder Goal.

1318
00:58:16,320 --> 00:58:18,600
Speaker 4: Let's be a little bit bold with our predictions and

1319
00:58:18,720 --> 00:58:20,000
Speaker 4: with that, that'll do it.

1320
00:58:19,960 --> 00:58:20,520
Speaker 2: For the show.

1321
00:58:20,680 --> 00:58:23,040
Speaker 4: My name is Michael liebof for BJ Cunningham and Anthony

1322
00:58:23,040 --> 00:58:26,520
Speaker 4: the Bundo. We really appreciate you guys listening and please

1323
00:58:26,880 --> 00:58:32,080
Speaker 4: please remember to download, subscribe, review and rate Wonder Goal

1324
00:58:32,280 --> 00:58:35,080
Speaker 4: and we'll see you guys back on Thursday for our

1325
00:58:35,120 --> 00:58:41,320
Speaker 4: Premier League Preview episode