WEBVTT - Trashfuture x Better Offline: Goosed In The Shell

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<v Speaker 1>Media.

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<v Speaker 2>It is with great excitement that I would like to

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<v Speaker 2>announce the newest joint venture in the high tech world

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<v Speaker 2>between Fast Future Podcasts Limited, formerly oil Warehouse formerly NFT

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<v Speaker 2>Tax Loss Harvesting Service formerly I believe, several kinds of

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<v Speaker 2>consulting firm and maybe a private investigator, and our good

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<v Speaker 2>friends at Better Offline, and of.

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<v Speaker 3>Course I'm representing the SoftBank Zitron merger we did earlier

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<v Speaker 3>in the year, in which case I am now technically

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<v Speaker 3>Masayoshi's son's son, and so we are related. He is

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<v Speaker 3>my father and I am his son. Now I am

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<v Speaker 3>Masiosi son. We are all Masaoji's son on some level.

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<v Speaker 3>Welcome to Better Offline and Trash Future at the same time. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>it's tf X Xitron. Oh, it's beautiful.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm so excited to announce that. Between our our two shows,

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<v Speaker 2>which are our independent company and iHeart, we're actually going

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<v Speaker 2>to be building apart. Look, Meta and Blue Owl have

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<v Speaker 2>said they're going to be building a data center, an

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<v Speaker 2>AI data center the size of I believe several Manhattans. Well,

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<v Speaker 2>we are building a podcast generating data center that will

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<v Speaker 2>cover nineteen Staten islands and cost only one trillion dollars

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<v Speaker 2>is expected to generate upwards of fifty dollars a year.

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<v Speaker 4>People are telling me you're on too many podcasts November

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<v Speaker 4>and I will not start. Not only am I starting

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<v Speaker 4>more podcasts, but I'm also folding more into the existing

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<v Speaker 4>podcast So pretty soon everything will be trash future.

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<v Speaker 5>Yes, zaraon Stke trying to stop us from building the

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<v Speaker 5>data center, saying that it's not viable. And to that

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<v Speaker 5>I tell I say to him, well, have you ever

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<v Speaker 5>started a business it's been successful.

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<v Speaker 6>No, you haven't, so shut.

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<v Speaker 3>No, that's one of the two things that can happen

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<v Speaker 3>in New York City. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean this is a really a really obvious thing.

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<v Speaker 4>When you look at Zara Mundane, you look at that guy,

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<v Speaker 4>and you say, that guy doesn't know a thing about

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<v Speaker 4>being successful. I'm very certainly guy's never succeeded.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, he's truly disliked by New Yorkers. That's the thing

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<v Speaker 3>that I hear from them. They're not just like welling

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<v Speaker 3>up with pride over his Fourth of July speech. They

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<v Speaker 3>don't love the fact to fix the Williamsburg bike lay. No, no, no,

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<v Speaker 3>it's all just everyone's sitting in their apartments in Connecticut

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<v Speaker 3>where they live most of the time, other than the

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<v Speaker 3>one day of the year where they come into New

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<v Speaker 3>York to complain.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, okay, I did say nineteen Staten Islands. What if

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<v Speaker 2>we data centered over Staten Island and just made it

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<v Speaker 2>nineteen stories.

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<v Speaker 3>Actually based on everything I know about Staten Island. The people,

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<v Speaker 3>they might approve, but they'll be like, ah, fuck it,

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<v Speaker 3>We've done our best.

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<v Speaker 2>We've motovated Staten Island. No, welcome to TF better upline.

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<v Speaker 2>And here's the thing TF listeners have been saying to me, like,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, discord and stuff. Why haven't you covered the

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<v Speaker 2>Masso She saw the newest piece of I guess outsider

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<v Speaker 2>art published by soft Bank in the form of their

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<v Speaker 2>investor presentation.

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<v Speaker 3>It's so beautiful.

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<v Speaker 2>There's always a lot in them and Masso she san

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<v Speaker 2>your father, yes, our I believe uncle.

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<v Speaker 3>Has these fucking podcast NAPO babies.

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<v Speaker 2>There's always some visual metaphor. I think that the Masseo

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<v Speaker 2>son decides this is gonna be how I communicate to everybody.

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<v Speaker 2>The thing that Chad GBT and I stayed up all

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<v Speaker 2>night for a month kind of coming up with.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and it used to be like.

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<v Speaker 2>Flying unicorns, right, how they would fly over like the

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<v Speaker 2>trench of despair and into like the future of optimists.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, the trench of coronavirus, right, that was one of

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<v Speaker 3>his Yeah, the trench of COVID. That was the one,

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<v Speaker 3>the valley of coronavirus.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, this SoftBank presentation has I would say a different

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<v Speaker 2>recurrent visual metaphor that starts around slide up for forty.

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<v Speaker 3>And we'll link to this in the in the notes

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<v Speaker 3>so that you can behold the goose. Yeah, So can

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<v Speaker 3>everybody turn to slide forty four in your packs? Please?

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<v Speaker 3>I'm there, this is it's beautiful. I am crying.

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<v Speaker 2>So what I have in front of me in case

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<v Speaker 2>you can't turn to slide forty four in your packs

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<v Speaker 2>because you're catching up on our investor presentation or our

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<v Speaker 2>presentation of SoftBank's investor presentation. Imagine your investor in SoftBank.

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<v Speaker 2>Maybe you're a pension fund, you're Ontario teachers, you've invested

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<v Speaker 2>in soft Bank, and the MASSOHI saw on you can

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<v Speaker 2>see his face light up because he's about to give

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<v Speaker 2>you his visual metaphor. Slide forty three to forty four transition.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a picture of a goose in five golden eggs. Yep,

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<v Speaker 2>that's right.

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<v Speaker 3>I think. Yeah, the thing is like it actually does

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<v Speaker 3>make sense when you read it one hundred times because actually,

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<v Speaker 3>let's go a little bit into it and that I'll

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<v Speaker 3>give a full explanation, because there is a logic. It's

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<v Speaker 3>just insane.

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<v Speaker 6>Generally, I love the graphics.

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<v Speaker 5>Like I've got a friend who's like he does like

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<v Speaker 5>his his job is to sort of apparently upgrade decks.

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<v Speaker 5>He goes like he does consulting for like companies to

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<v Speaker 5>be like, here's how you can make your PowerPoint presentations

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<v Speaker 5>look better because real like.

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<v Speaker 4>Do you pronounce that unionized or unionized? Moment there where

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<v Speaker 4>I'm like, the decks like the thing you have like

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<v Speaker 4>outside of a house.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, well, I mean I asked him in certain in

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<v Speaker 5>terms of like what you mean like magic the gathering,

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<v Speaker 5>which apparently which I guess would make more money. But

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<v Speaker 5>but I saw this, and I sent this to him,

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<v Speaker 5>and he was and he and he and like his

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<v Speaker 5>reaction I think was one of the funniest things that

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<v Speaker 5>I've ever I've sort of ever encountered. Every graphic in

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<v Speaker 5>this presentation is a mixture of graphic designers my passion,

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<v Speaker 5>but also like I it's one like I sort of

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<v Speaker 5>feel like it's actually ironically beautiful. Yes, this is amazing,

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<v Speaker 5>It's an amazing.

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<v Speaker 3>It's genuinely beautiful because like I said, so I I

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<v Speaker 3>must be clear when the goose is soft Bank.

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<v Speaker 6>Right, Okay, here's like seven times in this as well, right.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, So soft Bank is the goose, Masiosi, Masayoshi's son

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<v Speaker 3>is the gander. Masayoshi son mounts and impregnates soft Bank,

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<v Speaker 3>by which I mean invests money in companies using soft

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<v Speaker 3>Bank's funds, which point the goose, which is soft Bank,

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<v Speaker 3>becomes pregnant, and the portfolio company goes larger, then it

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<v Speaker 3>lays the egg, the portfolio company goes public. Basically, soft

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<v Speaker 3>Bank is a company that invests in companies that then

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<v Speaker 3>go public and makes soft Bank money. In theory, and

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<v Speaker 3>Masayoshi's son just vigorously you could you could more normally

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<v Speaker 3>call this like an incubator, but instead he's picturing himself

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<v Speaker 3>as a virile goose. Yes, exactly, He's just he is

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<v Speaker 3>just like absolutely going to town on the goose of

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<v Speaker 3>soft Bank every year.

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<v Speaker 7>Jesus, Jesus, just a discuss coming up to the coming

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<v Speaker 7>out to the legs and grasping it with both hands

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<v Speaker 7>and talking to a lot of people who have real

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<v Speaker 7>sort of influence and terms of capitalist central planning and going,

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<v Speaker 7>I've in fucking gooses.

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<v Speaker 3>Can you imagine like being a major investor in stuff?

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<v Speaker 3>But like the Japanese government is invested in this company

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<v Speaker 3>through ETFs, like and you're just like, great, what what

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<v Speaker 3>Masioshi Son's got for me this year? And you're just

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<v Speaker 3>like the what what?

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<v Speaker 8>What?

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<v Speaker 4>I think the sort of interesting question about this slide

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<v Speaker 4>decking about Masioshi Son himself is like, yes, there is

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<v Speaker 4>a logic if you work hard enough. This is also

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<v Speaker 4>true of the ramblings of someone experiencing a florid mental

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<v Speaker 4>health episode on public transports who we've you know, decided

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<v Speaker 4>as a society. Now, I guess it's okay to kill

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<v Speaker 4>that person, but it's not okay to kill Masioshi's son.

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<v Speaker 4>And I don't know, really know how to reconcile those

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<v Speaker 4>two things.

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<v Speaker 3>Not to not to say that we approve of that

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<v Speaker 3>for legal reasons, just to be just to be clear

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<v Speaker 3>and new. Yeah, I mean that's your dad. I wouldn't

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<v Speaker 3>say that you should leave my father alone anyway.

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<v Speaker 2>Sorry, rally, so basically and this this is that the

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<v Speaker 2>mental health point I think is interesting, right because there's

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<v Speaker 2>this idea that's been going around, that's been going sort

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<v Speaker 2>of like legitimate business publications that CEOs are getting AI psychosis. Yes,

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<v Speaker 2>it's just that because they're CEOs, you know, they when

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<v Speaker 2>they get AI psychosis, they don't like get on the

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<v Speaker 2>path train and have a heart attackle trying to meet

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<v Speaker 2>like their fake girlfriend from character AI, which more or

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<v Speaker 2>less sort of actually happened to somebody, yeah details AI specifically, yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>But in this case, they get up on stage and

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<v Speaker 2>they say, I have been I am destined. I am

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<v Speaker 2>destined to bring about the birth of an artificially superintelligent

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<v Speaker 2>god through this goose that has historically not been valued.

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<v Speaker 2>Because if you turn to slide forty seven, you'll see

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<v Speaker 2>the main problem is Goose was not valued.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, Goose value zero. And I think I don't know

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<v Speaker 3>if you remember the Robe Wismann fake Uber YouTube thing

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<v Speaker 3>that the listeners are going to love this because it's

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<v Speaker 3>just and it's just him going Uber Driver suck me off,

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<v Speaker 3>and he's just like sure, I just thinkost zero zero,

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<v Speaker 3>it's really good.

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<v Speaker 2>Imagine this in the I imagine this in the dark

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<v Speaker 2>soul spont goose not value.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, this is the thing, right, what we've got here

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<v Speaker 4>is And I think it's interesting that the AIS of

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<v Speaker 4>cyber psychosis thing because nas something is very open about

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<v Speaker 4>using AI, spending a lot of time talking to AI,

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<v Speaker 4>really eternalizing and personalizing the AI for himself. What we've

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<v Speaker 4>done is we've done a kind of like European medieval

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<v Speaker 4>royalty thing where we've created a kind of system where

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<v Speaker 4>if you are you know, at the top of it,

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<v Speaker 4>you can have the delusions and society has to conform

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<v Speaker 4>around you.

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<v Speaker 3>You are the king of France. Everybody has to act

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<v Speaker 3>like you are made of glass. Oh god, it is.

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<v Speaker 3>It's just besides its digital versa. It's just that like

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<v Speaker 3>everyone stinks, everyone's weird. It's like it's either shit or

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<v Speaker 3>oranges in the air. Now everyone's just like, wow, we

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<v Speaker 3>all love loops now, right, and everyone goes loops. Yeah, yeah, yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>I love loops. Loops are the best where we hate

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<v Speaker 3>we hate the other thing now.

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<v Speaker 2>And so each of these eggs is a trillion yen yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>and the markets are only the eggs, which is the

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<v Speaker 2>value of the companies but the goose not valued.

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<v Speaker 3>Goose not value zero. Yeah, goose value zero.

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<v Speaker 2>But in fact, and it says eggs do not lay eggs,

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<v Speaker 2>and it was the goose that created the value.

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<v Speaker 6>Many people are saying that I died.

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<v Speaker 3>This whole time. I had it wrong. The eggs. Fuck.

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<v Speaker 4>It's very funny to have a sort of like arch

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<v Speaker 4>capitalist go Wait a second, this business doesn't create any

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<v Speaker 4>of its own value, and this value has got to

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<v Speaker 4>come from somewhere, so I assume it's from you know,

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<v Speaker 4>analogously goose and non analogously me.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah. So yeah, I've been doing the hater's go to

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<v Speaker 3>soft bank and they just went out, so I can

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<v Speaker 3>very freshen my mind. And the thing that you'll know

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<v Speaker 3>when you look back at Massiosha Sun is he's a

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<v Speaker 3>terrible fucking investor, like historically bad, other than like four

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<v Speaker 3>times when he was amazing. He bought Ala Barbara at

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<v Speaker 3>twenty million dollars. He invested it, put twenty million in

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<v Speaker 3>worth about one hundred billion dollars equity value at the top,

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<v Speaker 3>sold it for about thirty billion because that's Masayoshi sign.

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<v Speaker 3>He bought Armed for thirty two billion dollars, took it

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<v Speaker 3>private and then took public and now it's worth a

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<v Speaker 3>bunch more money. But Yahoo Japan is the craziest one,

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<v Speaker 3>like classic loser company Yahoo. But it turns out that

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<v Speaker 3>he managed to, through one of his weird joint ventures,

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<v Speaker 3>stop it from being absorbed into the problematic Yahoo. So

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<v Speaker 3>he acted it. But every time he does something, well,

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<v Speaker 3>it's by accident. Every time he loves Also, I swear

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<v Speaker 3>this is true. He has a thing for whimsical white

0:11:39.840 --> 0:11:43.720
<v Speaker 3>boys like well, who doesn't I mean the Green Silk

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<v Speaker 3>Cat like Lex green Sill and him used to talk

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<v Speaker 3>on the phone every day he invested in we work

0:11:49.800 --> 0:11:53.080
<v Speaker 3>in twenty eight minutes they signed the four point four

0:11:53.120 --> 0:11:55.360
<v Speaker 3>billion dollar deal in the back of a car on

0:11:55.480 --> 0:11:58.120
<v Speaker 3>an iPad And it was like twenty seventeen, so the

0:11:58.120 --> 0:12:01.440
<v Speaker 3>iPad wasn't very good the time. So they're just like

0:12:01.440 --> 0:12:05.480
<v Speaker 3>like this fucking like clunky, probably cracked like across the

0:12:05.520 --> 0:12:09.000
<v Speaker 3>front font probably seventy two, just like, no, we must

0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:11.480
<v Speaker 3>do this, we must do this, now, we have to

0:12:11.559 --> 0:12:14.400
<v Speaker 3>do this. I must I'm being whimsical in front of

0:12:14.400 --> 0:12:18.560
<v Speaker 3>the wrong peep exactly. No, I genuinely think the if

0:12:18.600 --> 0:12:22.160
<v Speaker 3>I got in front of Masioshi's son for maybe ten minutes.

0:12:22.240 --> 0:12:24.000
<v Speaker 3>I could get seven billion dollars.

0:12:24.320 --> 0:12:26.440
<v Speaker 2>But here's your father, so you hope that you will

0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:27.560
<v Speaker 2>he will give you the time.

0:12:28.120 --> 0:12:30.840
<v Speaker 3>I wish all of this could. I wish I could

0:12:30.840 --> 0:12:32.640
<v Speaker 3>get in front of him. I wish I could just

0:12:33.000 --> 0:12:36.200
<v Speaker 3>tell him some of the great ideas I have about

0:12:36.240 --> 0:12:38.920
<v Speaker 3>like I don't know. Look, I have a newslet with

0:12:38.960 --> 0:12:42.719
<v Speaker 3>one hundred and eight thousand subscribers Masaosi's son. What if

0:12:42.760 --> 0:12:47.959
<v Speaker 3>it had a trillion subscribers? Huh right, And He'll be like, whoa,

0:12:48.000 --> 0:12:50.319
<v Speaker 3>that's and we're we're in on the ground floor of this.

0:12:50.600 --> 0:12:53.200
<v Speaker 3>We can get in. That's a big number. Ed, I'd

0:12:53.200 --> 0:12:56.760
<v Speaker 3>love to invest seven billion dollars. I'll be like, I

0:12:56.800 --> 0:12:59.160
<v Speaker 3>think that should be good enough to get us started.

0:12:59.280 --> 0:13:03.839
<v Speaker 3>Macaiosi son, another ten billion dollars, and I guarantee you

0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:06.720
<v Speaker 3>a trullion subscribers will happen by it could be as

0:13:06.760 --> 0:13:09.880
<v Speaker 3>early as twenty ninety easy pasy. Hmmm.

0:13:10.440 --> 0:13:12.400
<v Speaker 4>Well, the thing is right, I think this is a

0:13:12.400 --> 0:13:14.560
<v Speaker 4>good start, right, but we've got to aim high, Okay,

0:13:14.760 --> 0:13:17.400
<v Speaker 4>So like, yeah, what we do is we get we

0:13:17.440 --> 0:13:19.000
<v Speaker 4>get you in front of him and we say all

0:13:19.040 --> 0:13:21.600
<v Speaker 4>of this. But then you know, as he's sort of

0:13:21.679 --> 0:13:22.280
<v Speaker 4>like he's.

0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:24.160
<v Speaker 3>Warming to you. You see that he's kind of receptive

0:13:24.200 --> 0:13:24.400
<v Speaker 3>to this.

0:13:24.600 --> 0:13:26.000
<v Speaker 4>What you do is you switch it up right, you

0:13:26.559 --> 0:13:28.559
<v Speaker 4>lean forward, you jump out of the seat and grab

0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:31.120
<v Speaker 4>him by both lapels and you look him dead in

0:13:31.160 --> 0:13:33.840
<v Speaker 4>the eye and you say, and I'm going to invent God?

0:13:34.120 --> 0:13:37.960
<v Speaker 3>Oh yeah, And how do you love that? And here's

0:13:38.000 --> 0:13:42.640
<v Speaker 3>the thing, how do Christians like get a relationship with God?

0:13:42.920 --> 0:13:47.880
<v Speaker 3>The Bible a written document? What if the Bible could

0:13:47.880 --> 0:13:52.160
<v Speaker 3>be emailed to people every week? Every week they email

0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:55.160
<v Speaker 3>the Bible? That's what? That's what? Where's your head at is?

0:13:55.360 --> 0:13:58.000
<v Speaker 3>And Masaiosi Sun by this point is just he is

0:13:58.080 --> 0:14:01.439
<v Speaker 3>taking out a margin loan. He's like calling these back

0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:04.440
<v Speaker 3>and I need every dollar I've got, say it all

0:14:04.480 --> 0:14:07.480
<v Speaker 3>I need to back this. We direct all of it

0:14:07.520 --> 0:14:08.240
<v Speaker 3>from open Ai.

0:14:08.360 --> 0:14:10.400
<v Speaker 2>I've got a new person who's recently who told me

0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:15.240
<v Speaker 2>they're going to build God most recently so basically because

0:14:15.559 --> 0:14:17.280
<v Speaker 2>that's a little like we work was supposed to be

0:14:17.320 --> 0:14:17.959
<v Speaker 2>heaven on earth.

0:14:18.000 --> 0:14:19.160
<v Speaker 3>Like that was the pitch?

0:14:19.240 --> 0:14:23.040
<v Speaker 2>Is that, oh, that you could remake You could remake

0:14:23.040 --> 0:14:26.320
<v Speaker 2>a kind of prelapse arian, non alienated community. You could

0:14:26.360 --> 0:14:29.120
<v Speaker 2>have gardens of Eden everywhere. It was the point. Yeah,

0:14:29.160 --> 0:14:31.560
<v Speaker 2>but just that office sharing that same thing with flow

0:14:31.600 --> 0:14:34.120
<v Speaker 2>that's supposed to be that too, Like no, no, we've

0:14:34.120 --> 0:14:36.360
<v Speaker 2>got to much much more abstract. God yeah, any case,

0:14:36.400 --> 0:14:39.080
<v Speaker 2>yeah yeah, he said to the geese, he said, so

0:14:39.200 --> 0:14:41.040
<v Speaker 2>back to the gate, can we focus on the geese

0:14:41.120 --> 0:14:44.360
<v Speaker 2>on this technology? Sorry? Sorry I got I got us

0:14:44.360 --> 0:14:45.000
<v Speaker 2>off of goose.

0:14:45.160 --> 0:14:45.560
<v Speaker 3>My bad.

0:14:46.480 --> 0:14:49.280
<v Speaker 2>So eggs do not lay eggs obviously, obviously, and so

0:14:50.120 --> 0:14:51.720
<v Speaker 2>the mission to go for how do you go from

0:14:51.720 --> 0:14:55.640
<v Speaker 2>three eggs to seventy four eggs and increase of seventy.

0:14:56.160 --> 0:14:59.040
<v Speaker 3>More geese and Massioshi sounds gonna stop fucking them.

0:14:59.320 --> 0:15:01.640
<v Speaker 2>It was the Google that created it was the goose

0:15:01.640 --> 0:15:02.640
<v Speaker 2>that created value.

0:15:02.720 --> 0:15:05.040
<v Speaker 3>Oh so the value came from the goose.

0:15:06.040 --> 0:15:08.840
<v Speaker 2>I think I read that in capital Yeah, so the

0:15:08.880 --> 0:15:12.240
<v Speaker 2>goose value, goose value is seventy one, right, So goose

0:15:12.320 --> 0:15:15.360
<v Speaker 2>value seventy one, and people didn't value the goose at

0:15:15.360 --> 0:15:17.920
<v Speaker 2>seventy one. No, what matters not the eggs, It is

0:15:17.920 --> 0:15:20.200
<v Speaker 2>the goose itself, and true value is the power to

0:15:20.280 --> 0:15:23.640
<v Speaker 2>keep laying eggs. Right, And because of this, he estimates

0:15:23.960 --> 0:15:26.040
<v Speaker 2>that in the next sixteen years he will be the

0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:29.800
<v Speaker 2>first yen based quadrillionaire, or at least soft Bank will

0:15:29.800 --> 0:15:31.880
<v Speaker 2>be a gooseworth of a quadrillion yen.

0:15:32.480 --> 0:15:34.680
<v Speaker 3>I'm not sure what effects me more the fact that

0:15:34.720 --> 0:15:37.720
<v Speaker 3>this is written so much like sort of serial killer

0:15:37.800 --> 0:15:40.280
<v Speaker 3>taunting the police, or the fact that it kind of

0:15:40.360 --> 0:15:43.920
<v Speaker 3>appears to maybe be working well. The thing is, it

0:15:44.000 --> 0:15:47.120
<v Speaker 3>works because Masayoshi's son is able to keep getting debt

0:15:47.440 --> 0:15:51.320
<v Speaker 3>and genuinely, had open Aiye not come along, Masayoshi's son

0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:54.760
<v Speaker 3>might have been fine. Arm turned out so well like

0:15:55.040 --> 0:15:57.240
<v Speaker 3>it just as a chip maker, he's been able to

0:15:57.240 --> 0:16:00.200
<v Speaker 3>do basically unlimited margin loans, and he was okay, he

0:16:00.200 --> 0:16:03.440
<v Speaker 3>could have been fine, but then the whimsical white boy

0:16:03.560 --> 0:16:05.960
<v Speaker 3>operated in front of him, and he was like, okay,

0:16:06.440 --> 0:16:08.960
<v Speaker 3>this is it, Like this is my boy. I will

0:16:09.000 --> 0:16:12.200
<v Speaker 3>give him. He took out a forty billion dollar margin loan,

0:16:12.720 --> 0:16:16.000
<v Speaker 3>not margin, sorry, a bridge loan. It's a year long loan. Yeah,

0:16:16.120 --> 0:16:17.600
<v Speaker 3>jesus if you wanted to.

0:16:17.640 --> 0:16:19.680
<v Speaker 2>If you want the story on bridging loans, refer back

0:16:19.680 --> 0:16:22.080
<v Speaker 2>to our episode of Earth Rob Smith about bridging loans

0:16:22.080 --> 0:16:23.960
<v Speaker 2>and what kinds of things they're for and what kinds

0:16:24.000 --> 0:16:27.560
<v Speaker 2>of terms they usually have. So the true source of

0:16:27.560 --> 0:16:29.480
<v Speaker 2>the value. Could he ever turn to place fifty five.

0:16:29.520 --> 0:16:33.160
<v Speaker 2>This includes everyone listening on your on your packet. So

0:16:33.280 --> 0:16:35.520
<v Speaker 2>the true source of the value is the golden egg

0:16:35.640 --> 0:16:38.480
<v Speaker 2>factory inside the goose. Yes, and then it actually gets

0:16:38.480 --> 0:16:39.440
<v Speaker 2>helpfully broken.

0:16:39.280 --> 0:16:40.800
<v Speaker 3>Like a woom.

0:16:40.920 --> 0:16:43.960
<v Speaker 2>I guess well, So the goose here is soft bank

0:16:44.000 --> 0:16:48.600
<v Speaker 2>bringing out artificial superintelligence, and the internal mechanism is an

0:16:48.640 --> 0:16:55.560
<v Speaker 2>AI generated factory of eggs that are also labeled artificial superintelligence.

0:16:55.680 --> 0:17:00.280
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, each egg is a SI. Right, So eggs used

0:17:00.280 --> 0:17:03.000
<v Speaker 3>to be eggs used to be just a trillion dollars

0:17:03.000 --> 0:17:05.639
<v Speaker 3>of yen. But that's sorry, a trillion yen. It's like

0:17:05.680 --> 0:17:09.159
<v Speaker 3>six something billion dollars. What. I don't really know what

0:17:09.200 --> 0:17:12.120
<v Speaker 3>the eggs mean anymore other than ASI, which is it's

0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:18.400
<v Speaker 3>kind of like a yeah, it was like Ben Garrison cartoon, Like, well,

0:17:18.440 --> 0:17:19.679
<v Speaker 3>I mean this is where we want to go.

0:17:19.720 --> 0:17:21.080
<v Speaker 2>I want to go back to what Doova was saying

0:17:21.119 --> 0:17:24.520
<v Speaker 2>about mental illness right about. This is someone who because

0:17:24.520 --> 0:17:26.760
<v Speaker 2>we know what happens with Maso she Song, we know

0:17:26.880 --> 0:17:29.320
<v Speaker 2>he talks to chat GPT every day. He's like one

0:17:29.359 --> 0:17:31.159
<v Speaker 2>of the probably one of the world's biggest users of

0:17:31.200 --> 0:17:34.920
<v Speaker 2>it's like talk to you function, and he has been

0:17:35.480 --> 0:17:38.040
<v Speaker 2>convinced by it that he's going to build God. But

0:17:38.400 --> 0:17:41.879
<v Speaker 2>because he is a because he is one of the

0:17:42.520 --> 0:17:46.159
<v Speaker 2>central economic planners of the global economy, he gets to

0:17:46.240 --> 0:17:49.480
<v Speaker 2>allocate capital according to his delusion, as opposed to the

0:17:49.480 --> 0:17:51.560
<v Speaker 2>porschmuck dying on the path train who just gets like

0:17:51.840 --> 0:17:53.960
<v Speaker 2>scraped off the wall that Masao she saw gets to

0:17:54.000 --> 0:17:57.400
<v Speaker 2>fucking run through. Yeah, it's a bit like the bit

0:17:57.400 --> 0:17:59.880
<v Speaker 2>like Peter t I think also went crazy with ais

0:18:00.200 --> 0:18:02.840
<v Speaker 2>more unhinged in public example, recently said that the pulp

0:18:03.000 --> 0:18:05.720
<v Speaker 2>is a Chinese Communist Party agent, which he's not supposed

0:18:05.760 --> 0:18:09.920
<v Speaker 2>to know, right, Look that's you're not you.

0:18:09.960 --> 0:18:11.280
<v Speaker 3>Look, you don't have any.

0:18:12.280 --> 0:18:14.480
<v Speaker 4>Fans And the odds of him having figured that out

0:18:14.560 --> 0:18:17.960
<v Speaker 4>were crazy low. So like it's no shame on the Vatican.

0:18:18.080 --> 0:18:20.320
<v Speaker 4>But like Jesus, guys, the other thing.

0:18:20.240 --> 0:18:22.960
<v Speaker 3>Is as well, is it's like on top of just

0:18:23.080 --> 0:18:26.000
<v Speaker 3>the ridiculousness of this, And if you had a homeless

0:18:26.040 --> 0:18:28.200
<v Speaker 3>man on the tube saying jus.

0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:31.520
<v Speaker 8>Us about he's golden egg VECTORI inside the goose, you

0:18:31.560 --> 0:18:34.520
<v Speaker 8>see the internal mechanism, right, what you see the eggs

0:18:34.520 --> 0:18:38.440
<v Speaker 8>that produces them is the factories you would like hopefully

0:18:38.880 --> 0:18:40.119
<v Speaker 8>get them the help they need it.

0:18:40.359 --> 0:18:43.879
<v Speaker 3>But because he invested in alib Barba, we have to

0:18:43.960 --> 0:18:47.280
<v Speaker 3>like take this shit seriously now. Slide fifty six is

0:18:47.320 --> 0:18:49.919
<v Speaker 3>also good because he invents a new kind of goose

0:18:49.960 --> 0:18:54.560
<v Speaker 3>math where egg value. You were wasting on this, I've

0:18:54.560 --> 0:18:57.919
<v Speaker 3>been using Tarren's mallicks old goose math. You've heard of

0:18:57.960 --> 0:19:01.119
<v Speaker 3>girl math. Get ready for goose man. It's like goose

0:19:01.240 --> 0:19:06.320
<v Speaker 3>value alpha. I don't know, I'm not going to come

0:19:06.359 --> 0:19:09.040
<v Speaker 3>up with an actual thing because soft Bank is a

0:19:09.119 --> 0:19:11.639
<v Speaker 3>valueless company outside of the things it helps. It is

0:19:11.760 --> 0:19:15.520
<v Speaker 3>just a large holding company that is kind of a

0:19:15.520 --> 0:19:18.200
<v Speaker 3>big part. It's like the second or third largest company

0:19:18.200 --> 0:19:21.800
<v Speaker 3>on the Japanese stock market. And it's like that. The

0:19:21.920 --> 0:19:24.080
<v Speaker 3>other thing that I keep coming back to that really

0:19:24.160 --> 0:19:27.879
<v Speaker 3>isn't shown here is that's not actually the net asset

0:19:27.960 --> 0:19:31.119
<v Speaker 3>value of soft Bank. Like that's like I'm going to

0:19:31.160 --> 0:19:33.760
<v Speaker 3>just go right, Like the net asset value right now

0:19:34.000 --> 0:19:38.240
<v Speaker 3>is yeah, forty trillion, Like this is from soft Bank's

0:19:38.280 --> 0:19:41.280
<v Speaker 3>own website. So what he is doing here is he's like, yeah,

0:19:41.320 --> 0:19:43.760
<v Speaker 3>I'm adding the other thirty trillion from open Ai. He's

0:19:43.800 --> 0:19:46.280
<v Speaker 3>just adding He's just making up how much open ai

0:19:46.400 --> 0:19:49.040
<v Speaker 3>is worth. And as eager listeners will know right now,

0:19:49.200 --> 0:19:53.159
<v Speaker 3>Masiyoshi Son tried to get a margin loan on this

0:19:53.240 --> 0:19:56.960
<v Speaker 3>open Ai stock all of it, and yeah, then couldn't.

0:19:57.080 --> 0:19:58.359
<v Speaker 3>The banks were like, no, thank you.

0:20:10.160 --> 0:20:13.679
<v Speaker 2>I was going to play this game later, but can

0:20:14.040 --> 0:20:17.720
<v Speaker 2>we get an applause sound effectfully? Is because we're gonna

0:20:17.760 --> 0:20:23.359
<v Speaker 2>have an impromptu episode of everybody's favorite gamey uh with

0:20:23.359 --> 0:20:27.560
<v Speaker 2>with So far it's only contested possibly host et Cron,

0:20:27.920 --> 0:20:31.000
<v Speaker 2>welcome to Is that good?

0:20:31.359 --> 0:20:35.280
<v Speaker 3>Yeah? Thank you for coming on the show, sprinting down

0:20:35.400 --> 0:20:42.960
<v Speaker 3>from the audience. Yeah, just chosen again for I really

0:20:43.000 --> 0:20:47.800
<v Speaker 3>hope I get on? Is that good? Atron? My fingers crossed?

0:20:48.080 --> 0:20:51.960
<v Speaker 4>Liked you have like a do you have like a phone?

0:20:52.000 --> 0:20:52.320
<v Speaker 6>A friend?

0:20:52.359 --> 0:20:57.040
<v Speaker 3>Option on? That? Just a switch, It's just an unlabeled switch.

0:20:58.040 --> 0:21:00.399
<v Speaker 3>So ed, thank you for playing? Is that good? For

0:21:00.440 --> 0:21:04.120
<v Speaker 3>having me? So? All right?

0:21:04.920 --> 0:21:08.200
<v Speaker 2>The situation you just described where Masseo chi san, who's

0:21:08.240 --> 0:21:10.960
<v Speaker 2>already borrowed a lot of money to invest in open Ai,

0:21:11.400 --> 0:21:14.919
<v Speaker 2>essentially like a sports sports gambler paying for his bets

0:21:14.920 --> 0:21:18.440
<v Speaker 2>by borrowing from the mob. The bet on open It

0:21:18.520 --> 0:21:20.399
<v Speaker 2>if you can't roll over the bet to keep on

0:21:20.440 --> 0:21:22.880
<v Speaker 2>doubling down on the bet, is that good?

0:21:23.280 --> 0:21:28.720
<v Speaker 3>Yesl like you for the questions again, it's amazing. It's

0:21:28.760 --> 0:21:32.439
<v Speaker 3>just really funny as well because literally the we keep

0:21:32.480 --> 0:21:34.600
<v Speaker 3>coming back to the point. Literally the only reason we

0:21:34.640 --> 0:21:37.720
<v Speaker 3>don't treat this man like he's an insane person is

0:21:37.760 --> 0:21:41.320
<v Speaker 3>because he is. He hasn't blown himself up yet, like

0:21:41.440 --> 0:21:43.800
<v Speaker 3>it really and it is. Yeah, it's like he has

0:21:43.840 --> 0:21:46.440
<v Speaker 3>taken out so much there on open Ai, like way

0:21:46.480 --> 0:21:49.760
<v Speaker 3>more than we work, like historic ammounts, and he's just

0:21:49.960 --> 0:21:52.359
<v Speaker 3>and he's even the more thing. But he's doing Goose

0:21:52.400 --> 0:21:56.040
<v Speaker 3>fraud right now, Like he's like fifty seven claims seventy

0:21:56.080 --> 0:22:00.200
<v Speaker 3>four trillion dollars of egg value or show older value,

0:22:00.240 --> 0:22:05.280
<v Speaker 3>and that's not what's on bank's website. It's thirty trillion dollars. Sorry,

0:22:05.280 --> 0:22:07.920
<v Speaker 3>it's forty eight point two six trillion yen is the

0:22:08.080 --> 0:22:11.480
<v Speaker 3>xit value of holdings. That's lower than seventy four. I'm

0:22:11.520 --> 0:22:14.360
<v Speaker 3>pretty new to Goose math, but I can see that

0:22:14.359 --> 0:22:18.840
<v Speaker 3>that is still a drives me insane actually because in

0:22:18.880 --> 0:22:22.159
<v Speaker 3>a world of deep equality, Masayoshi Son gets away with

0:22:22.200 --> 0:22:25.280
<v Speaker 3>it only because he's a whimsical man out in Japan,

0:22:25.840 --> 0:22:30.439
<v Speaker 3>like because he's fun he is, And the thing is,

0:22:30.640 --> 0:22:33.560
<v Speaker 3>eight people, you're like, oh, we got ai psychosis. It's

0:22:33.640 --> 0:22:36.439
<v Speaker 3>like I think he might have had it already, like

0:22:36.560 --> 0:22:39.480
<v Speaker 3>without he just got it for the first case of

0:22:40.040 --> 0:22:44.080
<v Speaker 3>world's first case of ai psychosis inflicted before twenty twenty two. Well,

0:22:44.440 --> 0:22:47.320
<v Speaker 3>first person to get ai psychosis from GPT two. I

0:22:47.359 --> 0:22:51.600
<v Speaker 3>actually want to read you a quick quote about Massa

0:22:51.680 --> 0:22:55.399
<v Speaker 3>Yoshi son from an article this is I promise you

0:22:55.520 --> 0:22:58.320
<v Speaker 3>this is worthwhile. It's actually very important to understand the

0:22:58.359 --> 0:23:03.400
<v Speaker 3>whole goose thing. So from a Kakashi great pseudonymous analyst guy.

0:23:03.440 --> 0:23:06.480
<v Speaker 3>I followed, So okay, his dad was talking about him

0:23:06.480 --> 0:23:08.400
<v Speaker 3>and sixty year old Matsio. She signed. He was super

0:23:08.400 --> 0:23:10.800
<v Speaker 3>wrestling his older brother and losing badly, but he refused

0:23:10.840 --> 0:23:12.800
<v Speaker 3>to stop. When his father finally he pulled him away.

0:23:12.840 --> 0:23:15.919
<v Speaker 3>The boys eyes were in Mitsunari's words. Is that like

0:23:16.040 --> 0:23:18.679
<v Speaker 3>an animal's a wolf size? I thought to myself, this

0:23:18.840 --> 0:23:19.960
<v Speaker 3>bustard is not human.

0:23:22.000 --> 0:23:26.560
<v Speaker 4>Doing hype edits for your son like playfight thing is

0:23:26.640 --> 0:23:27.320
<v Speaker 4>really funny.

0:23:27.480 --> 0:23:30.040
<v Speaker 3>I just really like that him just getting his ass

0:23:30.119 --> 0:23:33.000
<v Speaker 3>kicked when he's six and he's like he just turns round.

0:23:33.040 --> 0:23:37.919
<v Speaker 2>He just has like demonie a world's first person to

0:23:37.960 --> 0:23:41.040
<v Speaker 2>have laser eyes in real life. Look, here's the thing.

0:23:41.040 --> 0:23:42.720
<v Speaker 2>There's the other thing, right, we're talking about marso she

0:23:42.800 --> 0:23:47.520
<v Speaker 2>sign's life. The presentation concludes with what used to be

0:23:47.560 --> 0:23:49.800
<v Speaker 2>his fifty year life plan, but now is his sixty

0:23:49.880 --> 0:23:53.120
<v Speaker 2>year life It's so good. So his fifty year life

0:23:53.119 --> 0:23:56.640
<v Speaker 2>plan was get acknowledged in your twenties. Finance a war

0:23:56.720 --> 0:24:00.639
<v Speaker 2>chest in your thirties. In your forties, take on a

0:24:00.760 --> 0:24:03.199
<v Speaker 2>challenge in your fifties.

0:24:03.160 --> 0:24:05.919
<v Speaker 3>Complete business. To do that, just like a bucket, like

0:24:06.000 --> 0:24:08.080
<v Speaker 3>ins any of them, any of them like an eighteen

0:24:08.160 --> 0:24:13.560
<v Speaker 3>year old girls Instagram post. To take take on a challenge.

0:24:13.600 --> 0:24:16.840
<v Speaker 2>Sure, remember ice bucket challenge for als and twenty eleven.

0:24:17.000 --> 0:24:21.240
<v Speaker 2>Take on that challenge. Done to finish the decade. Fifties

0:24:21.320 --> 0:24:25.399
<v Speaker 2>complete business okay, so uh, to complete all the business.

0:24:25.440 --> 0:24:27.040
<v Speaker 3>That means yeah, yeah.

0:24:27.680 --> 0:24:31.600
<v Speaker 2>Sixties handover business to next generation. But no fucking cross

0:24:31.680 --> 0:24:35.480
<v Speaker 2>thou no crossed out. This is the sixty year life plan.

0:24:35.800 --> 0:24:39.160
<v Speaker 2>Sixties crossed out, handover business to next generation. Gone, It's

0:24:39.200 --> 0:24:42.320
<v Speaker 2>not replaced. It now just has a seventies value, which

0:24:42.359 --> 0:24:47.199
<v Speaker 2>is realizing ASI or artificial super intelligence a similar a

0:24:47.280 --> 0:24:49.240
<v Speaker 2>term that's used in this is.

0:24:49.400 --> 0:24:53.600
<v Speaker 4>Like not a new Cubris. Right, you could have done

0:24:53.600 --> 0:24:56.560
<v Speaker 4>this at any point in human history. There were guys

0:24:56.640 --> 0:25:00.879
<v Speaker 4>back in the day whose life plan was twenty unite

0:25:00.920 --> 0:25:06.000
<v Speaker 4>Southern Song Dynasty, thirties, conquer Northern Song Dynasty. Forties, establish

0:25:06.119 --> 0:25:11.720
<v Speaker 4>mandate as son of Heaven. Fifties alchemy, sixties alchemy, seventies,

0:25:12.040 --> 0:25:14.800
<v Speaker 4>never die.

0:25:15.280 --> 0:25:17.119
<v Speaker 6>I feel like it's missing, like a little detour.

0:25:17.119 --> 0:25:18.320
<v Speaker 5>I feel like you need like a bit of a

0:25:18.320 --> 0:25:20.239
<v Speaker 5>side quest to sort of really make this fun, Like

0:25:20.600 --> 0:25:22.920
<v Speaker 5>you know, you should, like, you know, fifty five start

0:25:22.920 --> 0:25:23.280
<v Speaker 5>a band.

0:25:23.320 --> 0:25:25.000
<v Speaker 6>I don't know, there's so many.

0:25:24.800 --> 0:25:27.919
<v Speaker 3>Like, yeah, sixty learn to ride a motorcycle. No, it's

0:25:28.000 --> 0:25:30.560
<v Speaker 3>it's in this case, it's really just like the most

0:25:30.600 --> 0:25:34.880
<v Speaker 3>obvious thing of like, twenties conquer entire known world. Thirties

0:25:34.920 --> 0:25:38.600
<v Speaker 3>weep because there's no more worlds to conquer. Forties build

0:25:38.800 --> 0:25:44.359
<v Speaker 3>giant statue. Fifties start reinforcing statue at legs. Yeah. I

0:25:44.480 --> 0:25:46.639
<v Speaker 3>also want to be clear, it's really funny to do

0:25:46.720 --> 0:25:50.320
<v Speaker 3>this insane hour and fifty minute long presentation where you're

0:25:50.359 --> 0:25:55.280
<v Speaker 3>like slide four JP, why one quadrillion and they just

0:25:55.320 --> 0:25:58.040
<v Speaker 3>be like, and I'm not retiring for at least another decade.

0:25:58.520 --> 0:26:01.640
<v Speaker 3>Fuck you, I don't. I don't think that I live

0:26:01.680 --> 0:26:04.679
<v Speaker 3>in a functional enough economy or society to have a

0:26:04.760 --> 0:26:08.680
<v Speaker 3>life plan, Like my life plan is like twenties, fuck

0:26:08.720 --> 0:26:11.440
<v Speaker 3>around this mental health and drop out of UNI, thirties,

0:26:11.520 --> 0:26:18.600
<v Speaker 3>podcast forces, podcast, fifties podcast, sixties climate Wars. Maybe yeah,

0:26:18.960 --> 0:26:20.840
<v Speaker 3>woke Battalion in Climate Wars.

0:26:21.240 --> 0:26:23.119
<v Speaker 4>She thinks the climate Wars I'm gonna start until she's

0:26:23.119 --> 0:26:24.560
<v Speaker 4>in a sixties fucking idiot.

0:26:25.680 --> 0:26:28.640
<v Speaker 2>So this is but this is basically this is This

0:26:28.680 --> 0:26:30.639
<v Speaker 2>is the story of someone who has I think we

0:26:30.760 --> 0:26:32.720
<v Speaker 2>come back round to this because think it's very important

0:26:33.040 --> 0:26:37.520
<v Speaker 2>someone who has been driven to mania about this thing,

0:26:37.680 --> 0:26:40.600
<v Speaker 2>but who happens to be able to force that mania

0:26:40.680 --> 0:26:41.640
<v Speaker 2>upon everybody else.

0:26:41.800 --> 0:26:42.320
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:26:42.359 --> 0:26:44.399
<v Speaker 2>And you know, one of the things I want to

0:26:44.400 --> 0:26:46.679
<v Speaker 2>dig a little deeper into actually is his claim that

0:26:46.800 --> 0:26:51.200
<v Speaker 2>artificial superintelligence is coming. Artificial super intelligence and artificial general intelligence,

0:26:51.200 --> 0:26:54.200
<v Speaker 2>I think are used pretty interchangeably. He uses artificial super

0:26:54.800 --> 0:26:58.720
<v Speaker 2>the same thing. Yeah, and so he basically Maso she

0:26:58.800 --> 0:27:01.840
<v Speaker 2>Son is Sam Altman? Are now so Sam Altman's guys?

0:27:01.880 --> 0:27:05.760
<v Speaker 2>Excuse me? Told Masseoshi Son probably in the we just

0:27:05.760 --> 0:27:08.000
<v Speaker 2>need another can you take out alone to give us

0:27:08.000 --> 0:27:11.840
<v Speaker 2>a loan? Said that an AI model is designing the

0:27:11.840 --> 0:27:13.200
<v Speaker 2>next future AI model.

0:27:13.240 --> 0:27:16.640
<v Speaker 3>It open a up. Ah, so like sorry, son said,

0:27:17.040 --> 0:27:19.439
<v Speaker 3>you can't. You can't see the model or anything to

0:27:19.480 --> 0:27:22.200
<v Speaker 3>do with the model. Read this like philosopher, we got

0:27:22.240 --> 0:27:25.440
<v Speaker 3>in to talk about you know, the cost whatever. It's

0:27:25.560 --> 0:27:27.919
<v Speaker 3>just like it's if they find a new key to

0:27:28.000 --> 0:27:31.159
<v Speaker 3>jingle and it's like, well, why don't we invent I

0:27:31.160 --> 0:27:33.040
<v Speaker 3>don't know, make the model do something new. It's like,

0:27:33.080 --> 0:27:35.199
<v Speaker 3>what if we just made the model do that, or

0:27:35.240 --> 0:27:39.240
<v Speaker 3>if we just fucking you know, like the model could

0:27:39.320 --> 0:27:41.520
<v Speaker 3>do the model stuff and we could just sit here

0:27:41.560 --> 0:27:44.359
<v Speaker 3>and take the cash massire and like it's the laziest

0:27:44.400 --> 0:27:47.200
<v Speaker 3>thing in the world. It's like if any any other situation,

0:27:47.320 --> 0:27:49.720
<v Speaker 3>it's like I'll have someone else do it. You'd probably

0:27:49.760 --> 0:27:51.399
<v Speaker 3>be like they'd be like, well, no, you've got to

0:27:51.440 --> 0:27:54.080
<v Speaker 3>do something I gave you gave you forty billion dollars,

0:27:54.400 --> 0:27:56.480
<v Speaker 3>like you probably want to do something with it. But

0:27:56.600 --> 0:28:00.320
<v Speaker 3>Macioshi sounds like hell yeah. What's funny is mashi Yoshi's son,

0:28:00.960 --> 0:28:04.280
<v Speaker 3>Sam Altman, came to him in twenty seventeen, I think,

0:28:04.320 --> 0:28:07.920
<v Speaker 3>and asked for ten billion dollars. Mashioshi's son said yes,

0:28:09.359 --> 0:28:11.879
<v Speaker 3>But then Sam Altman just kind of walked off and

0:28:11.920 --> 0:28:15.480
<v Speaker 3>took the money from from Microsoft, and that drove Massaiyoshi's

0:28:15.480 --> 0:28:18.640
<v Speaker 3>son insane. He was like, oh my fuck, what ah,

0:28:18.840 --> 0:28:21.840
<v Speaker 3>I missed out the one that got away, and now

0:28:21.880 --> 0:28:25.200
<v Speaker 3>I will shower her with jewels and gems. She will

0:28:25.240 --> 0:28:26.760
<v Speaker 3>be mine.

0:28:27.080 --> 0:28:29.760
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and like the time to get it if you

0:28:29.800 --> 0:28:31.720
<v Speaker 2>wanted to sort of make money on that, the time

0:28:31.720 --> 0:28:33.360
<v Speaker 2>to get in was then, and the time to get

0:28:33.359 --> 0:28:33.960
<v Speaker 2>out is now.

0:28:34.040 --> 0:28:39.080
<v Speaker 3>Yeah. He really the worst times his only I would

0:28:39.160 --> 0:28:42.800
<v Speaker 3>say maybe if Open Eye goes public, which is now

0:28:42.840 --> 0:28:46.680
<v Speaker 3>an if, he might have done very well based on

0:28:46.800 --> 0:28:50.320
<v Speaker 3>the first forty billion, the next thirty at the highest

0:28:50.320 --> 0:28:55.800
<v Speaker 3>possible valuation, insanely stupid. Just and also, these these hogs

0:28:55.800 --> 0:28:58.560
<v Speaker 3>are going to need more money than this thirty billion dollars.

0:28:58.680 --> 0:29:01.160
<v Speaker 3>We're going to go into that. Oh yeah, we're gonna

0:29:01.200 --> 0:29:03.640
<v Speaker 3>go We're gonna need more money. Uh.

0:29:03.680 --> 0:29:05.960
<v Speaker 2>But so but just before we move on from Sun,

0:29:06.080 --> 0:29:08.360
<v Speaker 2>he said, So that's gonna happen to all the major models.

0:29:08.440 --> 0:29:09.600
<v Speaker 2>So once that happened.

0:29:09.280 --> 0:29:14.080
<v Speaker 4>Before we move on from Sun, like that will be blunt.

0:29:14.160 --> 0:29:16.400
<v Speaker 2>So once that happens, the model generates the next model,

0:29:16.440 --> 0:29:18.440
<v Speaker 2>and it's going to be exponentially smarter than all of us.

0:29:18.480 --> 0:29:21.080
<v Speaker 2>That's a super intelligence. In my mind, I thought it

0:29:21.120 --> 0:29:22.920
<v Speaker 2>was coming in four years instead of the next ten.

0:29:23.080 --> 0:29:25.400
<v Speaker 2>Now I'm saying it's coming in the next two. Then

0:29:25.720 --> 0:29:28.080
<v Speaker 2>the CNBC article goes on to say the soft Bank

0:29:28.160 --> 0:29:30.960
<v Speaker 2>CEO says he currently uses open ayes Chat GPT for

0:29:31.080 --> 0:29:33.240
<v Speaker 2>up to three hours a day as the AI is

0:29:33.240 --> 0:29:35.680
<v Speaker 2>smarter than he is on quote most subjects.

0:29:36.000 --> 0:29:39.040
<v Speaker 3>That's so good. I believe that three hours a day

0:29:39.200 --> 0:29:39.480
<v Speaker 3>is so.

0:29:39.920 --> 0:29:42.080
<v Speaker 2>If you're awake for twelve hours, that's a quarter of

0:29:42.120 --> 0:29:45.680
<v Speaker 2>your time spent just talking to the mirror that drives

0:29:45.720 --> 0:29:46.360
<v Speaker 2>you crazy.

0:29:46.640 --> 0:29:47.280
<v Speaker 3>That's cool.

0:29:47.600 --> 0:29:50.280
<v Speaker 2>It's what if narcissist wasn't just sucked into the pool

0:29:50.320 --> 0:29:51.760
<v Speaker 2>but also driven mad by it.

0:29:51.920 --> 0:29:55.760
<v Speaker 3>It's just it's so good as well, because the grandest

0:29:55.800 --> 0:29:58.520
<v Speaker 3>theme of this, it's pretty much all of these CEOs

0:29:58.600 --> 0:30:03.320
<v Speaker 3>have AI psychosis because usually even with human beings, there

0:30:03.360 --> 0:30:05.440
<v Speaker 3>is a limit to how many ideas someone will say

0:30:05.480 --> 0:30:08.160
<v Speaker 3>are good or at least before you fire them. With

0:30:08.280 --> 0:30:10.959
<v Speaker 3>an AI, you can just brate them into any idea

0:30:11.080 --> 0:30:13.760
<v Speaker 3>you could just be I heard a story of someone

0:30:13.920 --> 0:30:16.520
<v Speaker 3>at a major tech company where they weren't they didn't

0:30:16.520 --> 0:30:20.200
<v Speaker 3>have security access to access something, and they just said, actually, yes,

0:30:20.320 --> 0:30:22.479
<v Speaker 3>I do to the internal LM and it gave it

0:30:22.520 --> 0:30:25.880
<v Speaker 3>to them like it's just like this is just like

0:30:26.000 --> 0:30:28.240
<v Speaker 3>anything it disagrees with. You could just be like, actually

0:30:28.320 --> 0:30:31.920
<v Speaker 3>that's true and it will go yeah, absolutely, yeah, sure,

0:30:32.120 --> 0:30:35.120
<v Speaker 3>Like just so can you imagine the shit he's saying this, Like,

0:30:35.360 --> 0:30:38.600
<v Speaker 3>you know, you're exactly right, the goose will lay lay

0:30:38.680 --> 0:30:42.600
<v Speaker 3>golden eggs forever. You're absolutely right. I would love to

0:30:42.640 --> 0:30:44.959
<v Speaker 3>read his logs. I'd love to read the insane back

0:30:45.040 --> 0:30:46.960
<v Speaker 3>and forth he's having with them.

0:30:47.120 --> 0:30:51.880
<v Speaker 2>Masseyoshi San, your understanding of goose biology isn't isn't just detailed,

0:30:51.920 --> 0:30:52.560
<v Speaker 2>it's prescient.

0:30:55.160 --> 0:30:59.320
<v Speaker 3>So if shat GBT role playing as a goose, no,

0:30:59.600 --> 0:31:01.800
<v Speaker 3>I think you you need GROX adult mode for that.

0:31:01.880 --> 0:31:02.240
<v Speaker 3>I showed.

0:31:06.040 --> 0:31:08.320
<v Speaker 2>So here's what you've said. Actually, edam at Masso she

0:31:08.360 --> 0:31:11.160
<v Speaker 2>saw in an open AI. If Open AI doesn't go public,

0:31:11.160 --> 0:31:13.680
<v Speaker 2>there's a very real possibility that soft bank collapses or

0:31:13.680 --> 0:31:15.440
<v Speaker 2>at the very least is forced to finally put an

0:31:15.520 --> 0:31:18.360
<v Speaker 2>end to the era of unrivaled financial risk. It's easy

0:31:18.360 --> 0:31:20.040
<v Speaker 2>to like Masso, she saw, on to laugh at his

0:31:20.040 --> 0:31:22.760
<v Speaker 2>goofy Geese related presentations. And I'll say, as a side dope,

0:31:22.920 --> 0:31:26.120
<v Speaker 2>it is and his ridiculous statements about the future. But

0:31:26.240 --> 0:31:28.560
<v Speaker 2>in reality, he's a deranged, delusional man with too much

0:31:28.600 --> 0:31:30.800
<v Speaker 2>money and a few lucky breaks that have saved him annihilation.

0:31:31.200 --> 0:31:33.560
<v Speaker 2>His future lies in Sam Altman's hands, and if this

0:31:33.600 --> 0:31:35.840
<v Speaker 2>is what finally ends his wasteful, reckless reign, it's a

0:31:35.880 --> 0:31:38.640
<v Speaker 2>well deserved punishment for believing every damp, porked up white

0:31:38.640 --> 0:31:41.320
<v Speaker 2>boy to beg him for a billion dollars. He's an enabler,

0:31:41.400 --> 0:31:44.480
<v Speaker 2>enabled by other enablers that's created a culture of unbelievable

0:31:44.560 --> 0:31:45.360
<v Speaker 2>risk and destruction.

0:31:46.280 --> 0:31:49.480
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, tell me you really think that guy. That guy's smart, like,

0:31:51.360 --> 0:31:53.640
<v Speaker 3>but he's really funny as well. Because we live in

0:31:54.320 --> 0:31:56.440
<v Speaker 3>My girlfriend brought this up. There's a Twilight Zone episode

0:31:56.440 --> 0:31:58.880
<v Speaker 3>where there's a kid who if he doesn't if he

0:31:58.920 --> 0:32:01.600
<v Speaker 3>doesn't believe you're happy, turns you into an ear of corn.

0:32:01.960 --> 0:32:04.840
<v Speaker 3>We basically live in that society now where it's like

0:32:05.280 --> 0:32:07.680
<v Speaker 3>all of these CEOs get caught. The AI bubble is

0:32:07.720 --> 0:32:10.920
<v Speaker 3>just the large coddling. It's just like, yeah, the rich

0:32:10.960 --> 0:32:14.680
<v Speaker 3>people always have good ideas. We must orient ourselves around them.

0:32:14.800 --> 0:32:17.840
<v Speaker 3>Despite the fact that most of the industry's revenue is

0:32:17.840 --> 0:32:20.520
<v Speaker 3>either anthropic and open ai or anthropic and open ai

0:32:20.680 --> 0:32:23.360
<v Speaker 3>paying for the compute to lose money. Like it's not

0:32:23.760 --> 0:32:27.560
<v Speaker 3>even sophisticated. It's just that it's people nibbling around the

0:32:27.680 --> 0:32:31.360
<v Speaker 3>edges and massiosi son. Literally, I must be clear, had

0:32:31.360 --> 0:32:34.520
<v Speaker 3>he just not invested in open ai, SoftBank would be

0:32:34.560 --> 0:32:38.520
<v Speaker 3>doing great, it would be it would perhaps not have

0:32:38.680 --> 0:32:42.080
<v Speaker 3>had the massive on paper gain of open ai stop

0:32:42.160 --> 0:32:44.680
<v Speaker 3>going up, but like it probably also wouldn't have needed

0:32:44.760 --> 0:32:50.160
<v Speaker 3>forty fucking billion dollars forty billion dollars. It's just and

0:32:50.560 --> 0:32:53.200
<v Speaker 3>I I wasn't able to add up all the there

0:32:53.400 --> 0:32:55.960
<v Speaker 3>and do a deep analysis of that part yet, but

0:32:56.480 --> 0:32:58.800
<v Speaker 3>it really does seem that at some point he's just

0:32:58.840 --> 0:33:00.760
<v Speaker 3>not going to be able to refs a loan and

0:33:00.840 --> 0:33:04.160
<v Speaker 3>run out of money. It's it's it's just like a

0:33:04.200 --> 0:33:07.120
<v Speaker 3>teenager with a credit card, except it's one hundred and

0:33:07.160 --> 0:33:10.240
<v Speaker 3>fifty billion dollars of debt and there's gooseymbol.

0:33:10.800 --> 0:33:13.440
<v Speaker 2>And what what open a what SoftBank is doing via

0:33:13.520 --> 0:33:16.320
<v Speaker 2>open ai right now? This is a very refreshingly candid

0:33:16.360 --> 0:33:19.840
<v Speaker 2>telecoms dot com article, is that it's going it's addition,

0:33:19.960 --> 0:33:22.400
<v Speaker 2>going to take on additional debt in order to build

0:33:22.520 --> 0:33:25.360
<v Speaker 2>data centers, more data centers in the US, tens of

0:33:25.360 --> 0:33:27.440
<v Speaker 2>billions of dollars in AI data centers in the US,

0:33:28.400 --> 0:33:30.520
<v Speaker 2>and giving more money like of that to open AI

0:33:30.680 --> 0:33:32.760
<v Speaker 2>so that the data center project is called I believe

0:33:32.880 --> 0:33:38.400
<v Speaker 2>sb NEO yep, and they are they are going to

0:33:38.520 --> 0:33:42.120
<v Speaker 2>again say okay, we're going to build ten ten gigawatts

0:33:42.160 --> 0:33:43.840
<v Speaker 2>of of of data center.

0:33:43.960 --> 0:33:46.800
<v Speaker 3>Right. But quick question. We talk about data.

0:33:46.600 --> 0:33:48.280
<v Speaker 2>Centers a lot, you and I. We're talk aboutdata centers

0:33:48.280 --> 0:33:49.800
<v Speaker 2>a lot on this show. You and I talk about

0:33:49.880 --> 0:33:54.040
<v Speaker 2>data centers a lot. Do you have any of the

0:33:54.360 --> 0:33:57.960
<v Speaker 2>enormous supply chain bottlenecks that have largely prevented data centers

0:33:57.960 --> 0:34:01.120
<v Speaker 2>from being built? But yet, let alone the sort of

0:34:01.160 --> 0:34:03.840
<v Speaker 2>let's say, lack of demand from outside the industry for

0:34:03.880 --> 0:34:07.480
<v Speaker 2>their services, are any of those bottlenecks alleviated?

0:34:07.560 --> 0:34:10.080
<v Speaker 3>Can you get a gas turbine right now? Oh? And

0:34:10.120 --> 0:34:12.239
<v Speaker 3>the thing is as well, is just data centers have

0:34:12.320 --> 0:34:14.640
<v Speaker 3>taken like eighteen to thirty six months to build. So

0:34:15.080 --> 0:34:17.600
<v Speaker 3>him saying we're gonna build five or ten. He did

0:34:17.600 --> 0:34:19.800
<v Speaker 3>a thing with France as well. It doesn't bear repeating.

0:34:20.040 --> 0:34:23.920
<v Speaker 3>Something with Emmanuel Macaran and he's like, if they're building

0:34:23.920 --> 0:34:26.440
<v Speaker 3>five gig what's their ten? What's here? You may as

0:34:26.440 --> 0:34:29.520
<v Speaker 3>well be talking about the year twenty nineties, like, because

0:34:31.000 --> 0:34:34.080
<v Speaker 3>just the speed of construction. Put aside any thoughts I

0:34:34.160 --> 0:34:36.520
<v Speaker 3>have about the AI bubble. The speed of building these

0:34:36.520 --> 0:34:40.480
<v Speaker 3>things is very slow, and that's before the power comes in.

0:34:40.520 --> 0:34:44.440
<v Speaker 3>It's just the power doesn't exist either. Again, if you

0:34:44.560 --> 0:34:48.160
<v Speaker 3>took away the money, this person would sound fucking in set.

0:34:48.160 --> 0:34:50.000
<v Speaker 3>Well they do right now, but like you would laugh

0:34:50.040 --> 0:34:51.680
<v Speaker 3>them out of the building. If just a random guy

0:34:51.760 --> 0:34:55.160
<v Speaker 3>was like, I'm gonna raise ten gig what's so a

0:34:55.280 --> 0:34:58.240
<v Speaker 3>trillion dollars? Because a giga what is now one hundred

0:34:58.239 --> 0:35:01.280
<v Speaker 3>billion dollars trillion dollars, I'm gonna raise a trillion dollars

0:35:01.280 --> 0:35:04.600
<v Speaker 3>for data center and then one company's gonna rent all

0:35:04.640 --> 0:35:07.360
<v Speaker 3>of it, and yeah, that company loses money, but like

0:35:08.200 --> 0:35:11.440
<v Speaker 3>they won't and anyone else you'd be like, you sound

0:35:11.480 --> 0:35:14.279
<v Speaker 3>like a moron, man. But because it's Mashioshi's son, because

0:35:14.280 --> 0:35:20.320
<v Speaker 3>it's o Benai, Sam Moorman, because it's Dario Amade, You're like, ah, yeah, yeah, absolutely, yeah, absolutely,

0:35:20.360 --> 0:35:21.840
<v Speaker 3>that makes these are the guys.

0:35:22.239 --> 0:35:25.440
<v Speaker 2>They're the guy they're the pharaohs all things have And

0:35:25.640 --> 0:35:29.720
<v Speaker 2>it went with inequality accelerating with the bets, the actual

0:35:29.800 --> 0:35:32.240
<v Speaker 2>bets on the future getting better, getting smaller and smaller

0:35:32.280 --> 0:35:35.320
<v Speaker 2>and smaller and concentrated on a smaller and smaller number

0:35:35.360 --> 0:35:38.839
<v Speaker 2>of big hands. If you like, you get a kind

0:35:38.880 --> 0:35:41.480
<v Speaker 2>of you sort of rebuild like a pharonic system of

0:35:41.560 --> 0:35:45.000
<v Speaker 2>kingship from first principles, where you know what you can

0:35:45.160 --> 0:35:47.960
<v Speaker 2>just be like, you know what, we're work. We're monotheistic.

0:35:48.000 --> 0:35:50.880
<v Speaker 2>Now Egyptian polytheism is done. We're gonna try monotheism for

0:35:51.080 --> 0:35:56.160
<v Speaker 2>three generations. But like the problem is also being in

0:35:56.200 --> 0:35:58.239
<v Speaker 2>a pharonic system like that, with sort of this much

0:35:58.239 --> 0:36:02.560
<v Speaker 2>concentration of give just this much allocation of productive capacity

0:36:02.600 --> 0:36:07.040
<v Speaker 2>to madness is quite I'm gonna surprise you, quite damaging

0:36:07.880 --> 0:36:10.360
<v Speaker 2>because the question of can you get a gas turbine

0:36:10.840 --> 0:36:13.759
<v Speaker 2>that's super important for lots of stuff other than AI

0:36:13.840 --> 0:36:18.200
<v Speaker 2>data centers. It's just these data centers are in some cases,

0:36:18.200 --> 0:36:20.360
<v Speaker 2>because of political pressure, like in the UK, able to

0:36:20.360 --> 0:36:22.560
<v Speaker 2>skip the queue for certain kinds of planning or grid

0:36:22.560 --> 0:36:27.319
<v Speaker 2>hook up capacity, or you know, they're they're just they're

0:36:27.400 --> 0:36:30.040
<v Speaker 2>clogging up the order book for these things that we'll

0:36:30.080 --> 0:36:32.480
<v Speaker 2>just get deployed to these data centers that we're going

0:36:32.520 --> 0:36:35.080
<v Speaker 2>to explore if people are let's say, using enough and

0:36:35.440 --> 0:36:39.840
<v Speaker 2>profitably enough to make them viable, and all those spiking

0:36:39.880 --> 0:36:43.960
<v Speaker 2>infrastructure demand has now is now going out to other

0:36:44.239 --> 0:36:49.120
<v Speaker 2>It's like spreading through other pieces of like infrastructure, like

0:36:49.239 --> 0:36:50.720
<v Speaker 2>hard to build infrastructure equipment.

0:36:50.840 --> 0:36:55.239
<v Speaker 4>Right, quick question, has then the thing else happened recently

0:36:55.760 --> 0:36:59.040
<v Speaker 4>to maybe fuck up like global infrastructure.

0:36:59.239 --> 0:36:59.840
<v Speaker 3>That's all.

0:37:01.719 --> 0:37:04.600
<v Speaker 2>Something in the World Cup maybe yeah, the English world

0:37:04.640 --> 0:37:05.840
<v Speaker 2>people watching World.

0:37:05.640 --> 0:37:10.719
<v Speaker 4>Cup because I kind of feel like the strace of

0:37:10.719 --> 0:37:14.080
<v Speaker 4>Homer is fucking up the supply chain for this and

0:37:14.160 --> 0:37:16.400
<v Speaker 4>everything else. It's sort of like one point on the

0:37:16.680 --> 0:37:21.480
<v Speaker 4>sort of trifecta, the palace logo of we are really

0:37:21.520 --> 0:37:26.560
<v Speaker 4>fucking bad at long latency stuff as people. So like

0:37:26.920 --> 0:37:31.200
<v Speaker 4>it's I'm sure all of the consequences of this will

0:37:31.280 --> 0:37:36.040
<v Speaker 4>just be fine for an extremely like fragile, sort of

0:37:36.120 --> 0:37:39.960
<v Speaker 4>delicately balanced to goose fucking portfolio. But that actually leads

0:37:40.000 --> 0:37:42.319
<v Speaker 4>me to an important point, which is, let's take the

0:37:42.320 --> 0:37:44.120
<v Speaker 4>AI people at face value.

0:37:44.160 --> 0:37:45.520
<v Speaker 3>Don't know why we're doing that, but let's do it.

0:37:46.320 --> 0:37:50.640
<v Speaker 3>They are saying because based on Nvidia CEO Jensen Hwang says,

0:37:50.680 --> 0:37:53.920
<v Speaker 3>trillion dollars of GPU's visibility sales through the end of

0:37:53.960 --> 0:37:57.160
<v Speaker 3>twenty twenty seven, it's about four hundred and five hundred

0:37:57.200 --> 0:38:00.120
<v Speaker 3>billion dollars a year worth of AI compute revenue. You

0:38:00.200 --> 0:38:02.400
<v Speaker 3>just needed to pay for that. Put aside my thoughts,

0:38:02.440 --> 0:38:05.480
<v Speaker 3>just like you need that. This is not a hyperbole.

0:38:05.560 --> 0:38:08.160
<v Speaker 3>This is like, you need that money there the demand

0:38:08.160 --> 0:38:11.440
<v Speaker 3>doesn't exist. But on top of that, they are just saying, yeah,

0:38:11.719 --> 0:38:14.560
<v Speaker 3>the AI bubble is going. The boom even in their mind,

0:38:14.840 --> 0:38:16.400
<v Speaker 3>is going to just keep going. We're just going to

0:38:16.480 --> 0:38:19.880
<v Speaker 3>spend three trillion dollars on this every year, like just

0:38:20.200 --> 0:38:22.640
<v Speaker 3>and when you ask them how that works, they're just like,

0:38:22.719 --> 0:38:25.160
<v Speaker 3>the money'll be there, the money. How are we going

0:38:25.239 --> 0:38:27.279
<v Speaker 3>to substantiate the money. You'll be there, the money, you'll

0:38:27.320 --> 0:38:30.040
<v Speaker 3>be there. It will happen, the demand's there. And you're like, well,

0:38:30.040 --> 0:38:32.439
<v Speaker 3>there's compelling proof it isn't there, and they're like, well

0:38:32.480 --> 0:38:32.880
<v Speaker 3>it will.

0:38:33.480 --> 0:38:35.480
<v Speaker 2>It's a great way of it's a great way of

0:38:35.520 --> 0:38:39.319
<v Speaker 2>magicing away these long latency problems you bring up nova

0:38:39.400 --> 0:38:40.359
<v Speaker 2>like climate change.

0:38:40.360 --> 0:38:41.920
<v Speaker 3>For example, we were talking earlier.

0:38:41.960 --> 0:38:45.120
<v Speaker 2>It was like, well, the warming that's happening now was

0:38:45.160 --> 0:38:47.440
<v Speaker 2>from emissions from I don't know, forty years ago whatever, right,

0:38:47.480 --> 0:38:48.399
<v Speaker 2>Like this is all big day.

0:38:48.960 --> 0:38:52.480
<v Speaker 4>If you stopped like any CO two emissions like today,

0:38:52.600 --> 0:38:54.640
<v Speaker 4>we would still be logged in on like decades of warming,

0:38:54.640 --> 0:38:56.680
<v Speaker 4>which is really going to fuck up my life plan.

0:38:56.760 --> 0:38:59.640
<v Speaker 3>I think, yeah, that's good climate wars in the sixties.

0:38:59.640 --> 0:39:02.640
<v Speaker 6>Come on, yeah, you're gonna have to add another decade.

0:39:02.920 --> 0:39:05.520
<v Speaker 3>So but that their answer to this.

0:39:05.640 --> 0:39:09.280
<v Speaker 2>The way that the AI comes in forestalls like actual

0:39:09.320 --> 0:39:11.400
<v Speaker 2>good long term latency planning is it's like, well, the

0:39:11.400 --> 0:39:12.960
<v Speaker 2>AI is going to be smarter than us because it's

0:39:13.000 --> 0:39:15.360
<v Speaker 2>going to be super intelligent, so we won't have to

0:39:15.440 --> 0:39:17.080
<v Speaker 2>solve long latency problems.

0:39:17.320 --> 0:39:19.719
<v Speaker 3>We don't have to worry about the fact I love that.

0:39:20.120 --> 0:39:21.960
<v Speaker 4>Well that's a relief, yeah, to be honest, because I

0:39:22.560 --> 0:39:25.360
<v Speaker 4>hate solving problems, and to be honest, in my sixties,

0:39:25.400 --> 0:39:27.080
<v Speaker 4>I'm hoping to get into like alchemy.

0:39:27.360 --> 0:39:30.279
<v Speaker 2>So so here's another stat I picked up right, which

0:39:30.320 --> 0:39:33.200
<v Speaker 2>is it's no longer it's not just gas turbines anymore.

0:39:33.280 --> 0:39:36.440
<v Speaker 2>High voltage transformer lead times have gone from twelve months

0:39:36.480 --> 0:39:40.160
<v Speaker 2>to forty eight in some cases, So good luck build. So,

0:39:40.200 --> 0:39:41.640
<v Speaker 2>for example, at a time where we need to do

0:39:41.719 --> 0:39:45.759
<v Speaker 2>let's say an energy transition or time when say even

0:39:45.800 --> 0:39:49.960
<v Speaker 2>just in the UK, right national level grid upgrades are

0:39:50.800 --> 0:39:53.759
<v Speaker 2>more or less needing to happen in the next ten years,

0:39:53.880 --> 0:39:57.000
<v Speaker 2>or they're going to be like rolling blackouts. All the

0:39:57.040 --> 0:39:59.840
<v Speaker 2>high voltage transformers you can order are going to the

0:40:00.000 --> 0:40:02.600
<v Speaker 2>odd machine, which will then solve the grid problem some

0:40:02.640 --> 0:40:03.120
<v Speaker 2>other way.

0:40:03.280 --> 0:40:06.000
<v Speaker 3>I just like it. This is why will work it out?

0:40:06.120 --> 0:40:12.040
<v Speaker 3>When we work it out using the work and out machine, stay,

0:40:12.320 --> 0:40:16.000
<v Speaker 3>keep giving it money and then a fucking duh at

0:40:16.000 --> 0:40:18.719
<v Speaker 3>some point you know you work it out. Why are

0:40:18.760 --> 0:40:21.560
<v Speaker 3>you being a quap by wait, come on, man, just

0:40:21.560 --> 0:40:25.400
<v Speaker 3>give me ten billion. You're you're being laying. You're being laying, man,

0:40:25.560 --> 0:40:26.040
<v Speaker 3>come on.

0:40:27.040 --> 0:40:29.839
<v Speaker 2>So and also it's like another all thing is really

0:40:29.840 --> 0:40:32.239
<v Speaker 2>funny that this sphere is always AI is going to

0:40:32.280 --> 0:40:35.000
<v Speaker 2>be a paper clip maximizer, right, the entire be it,

0:40:35.040 --> 0:40:37.080
<v Speaker 2>the whole world in universe and all matter we made

0:40:37.080 --> 0:40:39.480
<v Speaker 2>into paper clips by an AI. But if you look

0:40:39.480 --> 0:40:41.680
<v Speaker 2>at what we're doing with data centers, and we're going

0:40:41.760 --> 0:40:43.360
<v Speaker 2>to go on again to the profitability of them in

0:40:43.400 --> 0:40:47.440
<v Speaker 2>a second, because some stuff has happened there is you

0:40:47.480 --> 0:40:49.719
<v Speaker 2>don't need the AI to be a paper clip maximizer

0:40:49.920 --> 0:40:53.480
<v Speaker 2>because capitalism as a system is already maximizing the paper

0:40:53.480 --> 0:40:56.520
<v Speaker 2>clips in the form of the data centers. We're cannibalizing

0:40:56.719 --> 0:41:00.279
<v Speaker 2>useful things to build this that you can't read the

0:41:00.280 --> 0:41:03.359
<v Speaker 2>grid anymore because all of the transformers are being turned

0:41:03.360 --> 0:41:05.200
<v Speaker 2>into effectively paper clips.

0:41:05.640 --> 0:41:06.520
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and.

0:41:08.000 --> 0:41:10.640
<v Speaker 2>I know that's not even touching data bricks, which is

0:41:10.640 --> 0:41:12.959
<v Speaker 2>another n scale type snaff food that got uncovered by.

0:41:12.840 --> 0:41:17.000
<v Speaker 3>A similar So you can be saying that, Riley, Sorry, sorry,

0:41:17.440 --> 0:41:18.720
<v Speaker 3>check out no gods, no Mayers.

0:41:19.600 --> 0:41:35.239
<v Speaker 2>But we'll go into that on Thursday. Heyway, I wanted

0:41:35.239 --> 0:41:37.920
<v Speaker 2>to talk about some profitability stuff right as we mentioned

0:41:37.920 --> 0:41:40.880
<v Speaker 2>that open AI's going public is now an if in

0:41:40.960 --> 0:41:43.280
<v Speaker 2>that earlier episode of Is That Good that we played,

0:41:44.160 --> 0:41:46.360
<v Speaker 2>so I actually want you a quote from friend of

0:41:46.360 --> 0:41:48.560
<v Speaker 2>the show, Mike Isaac. The Wall Street Journal reported that

0:41:48.600 --> 0:41:50.120
<v Speaker 2>the company planned to go public by the end of

0:41:50.120 --> 0:41:52.960
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty six. Open Ai said this month, a month

0:41:53.000 --> 0:41:56.040
<v Speaker 2>it had filed confidential paperwork with securities regulars to kick

0:41:56.040 --> 0:41:59.160
<v Speaker 2>off the process. A trillion dollar valuation of the public market,

0:41:59.200 --> 0:42:01.560
<v Speaker 2>which would exceed the more capitalization of Walmart, would be

0:42:01.600 --> 0:42:05.000
<v Speaker 2>staggering for open Ai, a startup that is not believed

0:42:05.000 --> 0:42:06.840
<v Speaker 2>to have turned a profit and is aggressively spending on

0:42:06.920 --> 0:42:10.279
<v Speaker 2>new data centers, open AIS advisors presenting company executives with

0:42:10.320 --> 0:42:12.880
<v Speaker 2>the option of waiting till twenty twenty seven or lower

0:42:12.880 --> 0:42:17.640
<v Speaker 2>the target valuation for a quicker IPO. Mister Altman responded

0:42:17.640 --> 0:42:20.440
<v Speaker 2>that any change to a trillion dollar valuation was a

0:42:20.480 --> 0:42:23.359
<v Speaker 2>non starter. I assume this is me editorializing because he's

0:42:23.360 --> 0:42:25.000
<v Speaker 2>in a pissing contest with Elon Musk.

0:42:25.640 --> 0:42:28.920
<v Speaker 3>I mean, I think it's also the so their last

0:42:29.160 --> 0:42:32.320
<v Speaker 3>pre money, so before the cash they actually raised, valuation

0:42:32.440 --> 0:42:35.360
<v Speaker 3>was LO two sorry, seven hundred and thirty something, So

0:42:36.120 --> 0:42:39.560
<v Speaker 3>a trillion dollars would be a thirty percent premium. Ish,

0:42:39.920 --> 0:42:42.920
<v Speaker 3>that's not a lot. And the fact that the bankers

0:42:42.920 --> 0:42:46.000
<v Speaker 3>are saying that they couldn't get that, because that's I'm

0:42:46.040 --> 0:42:48.240
<v Speaker 3>reading between the lines, but I mean, that's what's happening.

0:42:48.239 --> 0:42:51.600
<v Speaker 3>They clearly talked to some advisors who are like, you know, no,

0:42:52.000 --> 0:42:55.840
<v Speaker 3>that's a negative. That's worse than people are giving this

0:42:55.920 --> 0:42:58.680
<v Speaker 3>credit for. If you can't get a thirty percent premium,

0:42:58.719 --> 0:43:01.160
<v Speaker 3>it basically means all of your private investors at the

0:43:01.200 --> 0:43:05.360
<v Speaker 3>last round fucked up. Because you're not even get like

0:43:05.400 --> 0:43:08.279
<v Speaker 3>a good venture capital return would be like three x.

0:43:09.120 --> 0:43:12.319
<v Speaker 3>You're not even getting just to it, like it's you're

0:43:12.400 --> 0:43:15.920
<v Speaker 3>genuinely making nothing here. And also they're saying they couldn't

0:43:16.000 --> 0:43:19.399
<v Speaker 3>list it one trillion, so they probably wouldn't be able

0:43:19.400 --> 0:43:23.160
<v Speaker 3>to list it much above eight hundred, which is fatal.

0:43:23.400 --> 0:43:25.759
<v Speaker 3>I mean just and this is fatal for soft Bank

0:43:25.800 --> 0:43:28.440
<v Speaker 3>as well, because bank needs open a high to go public.

0:43:28.800 --> 0:43:33.000
<v Speaker 3>But it's just like these things. The reason we keep

0:43:33.040 --> 0:43:37.080
<v Speaker 3>having bubbles is because when stuff like this happens, the

0:43:37.200 --> 0:43:42.400
<v Speaker 3>media and a great many different people immediately move not

0:43:42.520 --> 0:43:46.000
<v Speaker 3>to go, hey, that's a problem, we should fix that,

0:43:46.160 --> 0:43:48.480
<v Speaker 3>or like, hey, we should be worried about the company

0:43:48.480 --> 0:43:51.560
<v Speaker 3>that's become the single focus of everyone isn't going to

0:43:51.640 --> 0:43:54.040
<v Speaker 3>make it. Instead it's like no, no, no, let's rationalize

0:43:54.040 --> 0:43:58.040
<v Speaker 3>this bad boy real quick. Let's enable the enabler, like

0:43:58.280 --> 0:44:00.399
<v Speaker 3>we need to make sure we keep this and it's

0:44:00.440 --> 0:44:04.160
<v Speaker 3>just completely nonsensical. And to be clear, when this explodes,

0:44:04.200 --> 0:44:07.040
<v Speaker 3>I'm going to be ripping holes in anyone who tries

0:44:07.080 --> 0:44:08.960
<v Speaker 3>to be like, how did we not see this coming?

0:44:09.840 --> 0:44:12.000
<v Speaker 3>You didn't look? Is the big thing?

0:44:12.080 --> 0:44:16.080
<v Speaker 2>Well, because the main the thing that as at the

0:44:16.080 --> 0:44:18.680
<v Speaker 2>bottom of this is always the unit economics. And what

0:44:18.760 --> 0:44:21.920
<v Speaker 2>I think is very telling is that open air executives

0:44:21.920 --> 0:44:24.080
<v Speaker 2>and talking about the IPO, said well, the company is

0:44:24.120 --> 0:44:26.080
<v Speaker 2>moving in the right direction because more than five million

0:44:26.120 --> 0:44:28.600
<v Speaker 2>people use codex in a monthly but on a weekly basis,

0:44:28.640 --> 0:44:31.640
<v Speaker 2>the company said, now more than five million people using

0:44:31.640 --> 0:44:34.320
<v Speaker 2>Codex on a weekly basis pretty good, which means I

0:44:34.320 --> 0:44:36.600
<v Speaker 2>assume they've solved their unit economics problem and that's not

0:44:36.680 --> 0:44:38.280
<v Speaker 2>costing them a huge amount of money.

0:44:38.600 --> 0:44:42.200
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, they've definitely avoided They've gotten out of the sort

0:44:42.239 --> 0:44:44.960
<v Speaker 1>of thing that they were doing of just going hey,

0:44:45.000 --> 0:44:47.440
<v Speaker 1>AI is free until everyone uses it and then they

0:44:47.440 --> 0:44:50.040
<v Speaker 1>can start charging what it actually costs, right right.

0:44:50.880 --> 0:44:54.120
<v Speaker 3>Yeah. And what's great about that is they did that

0:44:54.200 --> 0:44:55.839
<v Speaker 3>and they were like okay, and now the jack up

0:44:55.840 --> 0:44:59.960
<v Speaker 3>the price, and within one month they're like, ah, everyone's like,

0:45:00.160 --> 0:45:03.120
<v Speaker 3>well we've got to limit the cost of this just immediately.

0:45:03.440 --> 0:45:05.200
<v Speaker 3>And by the way, on a two hundred buck a

0:45:05.280 --> 0:45:09.000
<v Speaker 3>month subscription to check GPT, you can burn fourteen thousand

0:45:09.040 --> 0:45:13.279
<v Speaker 3>dollars worth of credits of tokens. Geez, it's so good,

0:45:13.440 --> 0:45:18.160
<v Speaker 3>it's I mean, so this is the thing we've had

0:45:18.200 --> 0:45:22.399
<v Speaker 3>everybody panic, right and go, oh god, it's expensive. Now

0:45:22.480 --> 0:45:24.799
<v Speaker 3>we gotta like maybe think why it's about using it.

0:45:25.239 --> 0:45:29.239
<v Speaker 3>They're still charging a fraction of what it cost, just

0:45:29.280 --> 0:45:33.520
<v Speaker 3>a slightly smaller fraction, a slightly larger fraction exactly. And

0:45:33.840 --> 0:45:37.839
<v Speaker 3>amazing also instead of instead of it costs like I

0:45:37.880 --> 0:45:41.399
<v Speaker 3>have fourteen thousand dollars for a dollar, you can set

0:45:41.400 --> 0:45:43.879
<v Speaker 3>that on fire in front of me. What they've gone

0:45:44.000 --> 0:45:46.239
<v Speaker 3>is it now costs two dollars to do that, and

0:45:46.280 --> 0:45:49.279
<v Speaker 3>everyone has part what's happened. What's happening is it's a

0:45:49.320 --> 0:45:52.560
<v Speaker 3>little different from that where it's the enterprises are having

0:45:52.600 --> 0:45:55.399
<v Speaker 3>to pay the actual per million token rates, so they

0:45:55.600 --> 0:45:57.600
<v Speaker 3>and they this is it's really it was actually a

0:45:57.680 --> 0:46:01.000
<v Speaker 3>very funny punchline setup because they bait all of the

0:46:01.120 --> 0:46:03.520
<v Speaker 3>bus the city it's been using AI who have got

0:46:03.520 --> 0:46:06.040
<v Speaker 3>a isochosis, told all their people because they were all

0:46:06.080 --> 0:46:07.920
<v Speaker 3>able to burn as many token as they like, use

0:46:07.960 --> 0:46:10.799
<v Speaker 3>this constantly, use it for everything. If you don't use this,

0:46:10.880 --> 0:46:13.759
<v Speaker 3>I'll kill you. I'll shoot you with a gun. And

0:46:13.800 --> 0:46:16.879
<v Speaker 3>then the moment that they because in I think it's

0:46:16.920 --> 0:46:19.479
<v Speaker 3>March or April the anthropic and open aie. We're like, okay,

0:46:19.480 --> 0:46:21.040
<v Speaker 3>you're gonna have to pay on a per million token

0:46:21.080 --> 0:46:25.640
<v Speaker 3>basis within one month. We're just like like John Major Stalakar,

0:46:25.640 --> 0:46:28.520
<v Speaker 3>I've got a austerity measures. We've got to be very

0:46:28.520 --> 0:46:31.040
<v Speaker 3>careful with the cost of hay out. We couldn't couldn't possibly.

0:46:31.200 --> 0:46:33.840
<v Speaker 3>And it's just so funny because it's like, even if

0:46:34.040 --> 0:46:37.480
<v Speaker 3>they cut the price in half, it's not clear if

0:46:37.520 --> 0:46:40.040
<v Speaker 3>that would actually fix the problem because you can't measure

0:46:40.040 --> 0:46:42.200
<v Speaker 3>the ROI of any of this. So with just a

0:46:42.200 --> 0:46:46.560
<v Speaker 3>certain degree of like great, now it's half of half

0:46:46.560 --> 0:46:48.279
<v Speaker 3>of a thing that we still can't measure, so we

0:46:48.320 --> 0:46:51.839
<v Speaker 3>probably have to cut that too. It's just it's truly ludicrous.

0:46:52.040 --> 0:46:55.759
<v Speaker 3>It's genuinely I mean, it's genuinely hilarious as well. I

0:46:55.800 --> 0:46:58.000
<v Speaker 3>mean the I have you have you heard of the

0:46:58.000 --> 0:47:02.120
<v Speaker 3>new plugin for Claude called k man Oh yeah, where

0:47:02.160 --> 0:47:07.279
<v Speaker 3>it's just like it just gives you very simple single sentences. Yeah,

0:47:07.280 --> 0:47:08.799
<v Speaker 3>this is that a plug in? That was you?

0:47:09.000 --> 0:47:12.800
<v Speaker 2>That is that is useful to let's say be austere

0:47:12.920 --> 0:47:15.359
<v Speaker 2>with tokens by saying, Okay, well maybe we can save

0:47:15.400 --> 0:47:17.160
<v Speaker 2>a little bit of money on our token budget if

0:47:17.160 --> 0:47:20.640
<v Speaker 2>we make Claude be kind of rude and abrupt. It's like,

0:47:20.680 --> 0:47:23.080
<v Speaker 2>I don't I don't think that says anything good. If

0:47:23.080 --> 0:47:24.120
<v Speaker 2>that's if that's so.

0:47:24.840 --> 0:47:27.759
<v Speaker 4>That's it's kind of funny how much of the cost

0:47:27.840 --> 0:47:30.759
<v Speaker 4>of this was making it glaze of the user at least.

0:47:32.000 --> 0:47:36.160
<v Speaker 2>And like, so in late June there has been this

0:47:36.280 --> 0:47:39.240
<v Speaker 2>huge it's not because this is not just price is rising.

0:47:39.520 --> 0:47:41.880
<v Speaker 2>There's been a huge sell off in names across the

0:47:41.920 --> 0:47:45.640
<v Speaker 2>stock market related to AI and Vidia. SpaceX by SpaceX

0:47:45.680 --> 0:47:49.120
<v Speaker 2>already is down like hundreds of billions of dollars from

0:47:49.120 --> 0:47:51.279
<v Speaker 2>its post IPO pop. So if you thought you were

0:47:51.280 --> 0:47:54.799
<v Speaker 2>gonna get out on the Elon scam, you got hosed this.

0:47:55.000 --> 0:47:57.800
<v Speaker 2>But this is also related to Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and

0:47:57.840 --> 0:48:01.520
<v Speaker 2>Meta all suddenly becoming like high happex heavy industry companies

0:48:01.520 --> 0:48:04.640
<v Speaker 2>more or less overnight. So the customers of these companies, right,

0:48:04.719 --> 0:48:06.600
<v Speaker 2>they're the ones who are supposed to provide the money

0:48:06.600 --> 0:48:08.759
<v Speaker 2>to help them lose money more efficiently, still aren't able

0:48:08.800 --> 0:48:12.120
<v Speaker 2>to capitalize on them. Like like consulting firms aren't using

0:48:12.160 --> 0:48:14.440
<v Speaker 2>it to get better, Banking companies aren't using it to

0:48:14.440 --> 0:48:14.879
<v Speaker 2>get better.

0:48:14.920 --> 0:48:15.320
<v Speaker 3>You can't.

0:48:15.400 --> 0:48:17.360
<v Speaker 2>You're using it to really generate a lot of return

0:48:17.400 --> 0:48:20.280
<v Speaker 2>on investment. And so more and more people are reasing

0:48:20.640 --> 0:48:23.959
<v Speaker 2>realizing this subsidized pricing is coming up against reality and

0:48:24.160 --> 0:48:28.520
<v Speaker 2>like that exuberant that exuberant investment pop is that that's

0:48:28.560 --> 0:48:30.680
<v Speaker 2>been happening for the lest little while. Those names are

0:48:30.719 --> 0:48:32.560
<v Speaker 2>beginning to go down. In fact, this is from Katie

0:48:32.600 --> 0:48:35.680
<v Speaker 2>Martin and the ft. The once vaunted magnificent seven stocks

0:48:35.719 --> 0:48:38.480
<v Speaker 2>and imperfect but nonetheless go to gage of Hyperscaler performance

0:48:38.719 --> 0:48:42.320
<v Speaker 2>performs slightly worse than the UK government debt.

0:48:42.640 --> 0:48:48.279
<v Speaker 3>M Oh, how are you a worse investment than Kistoma. Yeah,

0:48:48.520 --> 0:48:50.640
<v Speaker 3>that's like that's like at the World Up.

0:48:53.920 --> 0:48:56.680
<v Speaker 2>It's like getting rolled by katar at the World Cup, Like,

0:48:56.840 --> 0:49:06.000
<v Speaker 2>come on, you shouldn't be beating us. Yes, and I

0:49:06.000 --> 0:49:08.919
<v Speaker 2>mean this is this is a this is The Bank

0:49:08.960 --> 0:49:11.919
<v Speaker 2>of International Settlements is also getting another as well, which

0:49:11.920 --> 0:49:15.480
<v Speaker 2>is yeah now suggesting that with the five largest hyperscalers

0:49:15.719 --> 0:49:18.560
<v Speaker 2>setting to spend over a trillion dollars on AI related

0:49:18.560 --> 0:49:20.960
<v Speaker 2>capex from twenty twenty five through twenty six, that the

0:49:21.000 --> 0:49:24.480
<v Speaker 2>campaign commit commitments are outpacing earnings and free cash flow,

0:49:24.880 --> 0:49:27.799
<v Speaker 2>leading some to issue debt to raise additional financing, and

0:49:27.840 --> 0:49:30.879
<v Speaker 2>that again the Bank of International Settlements is now saying

0:49:31.000 --> 0:49:33.759
<v Speaker 2>this is a this is now let's say, a significant

0:49:34.360 --> 0:49:35.080
<v Speaker 2>global risk.

0:49:35.480 --> 0:49:38.440
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, one of those guys woudy, someone had fucking said something.

0:49:38.800 --> 0:49:43.000
<v Speaker 3>It's so funny as one would like. The BIS put

0:49:43.000 --> 0:49:46.240
<v Speaker 3>that out so like the Servile Bank and central banks,

0:49:46.680 --> 0:49:49.560
<v Speaker 3>and immediately I saw an analyst, this guy called Daniel

0:49:49.560 --> 0:49:53.359
<v Speaker 3>Newman on Twitter. Is a massive word, I won't say.

0:49:54.440 --> 0:49:56.360
<v Speaker 3>It was just immediate, like, oh oh, what was this

0:49:56.440 --> 0:49:58.320
<v Speaker 3>a press release? A press release from the hate is

0:49:58.320 --> 0:50:01.040
<v Speaker 3>It's like, no, it's a statement from the Central Bank

0:50:01.080 --> 0:50:04.480
<v Speaker 3>of Central Banks. You're a financial analyst, but this is

0:50:04.840 --> 0:50:07.759
<v Speaker 3>the media behind this. The media is just like immediately

0:50:07.800 --> 0:50:11.719
<v Speaker 3>ready to just attack any bad sign, and it's very strange.

0:50:11.880 --> 0:50:16.200
<v Speaker 3>It's I know it's always been like this, but to

0:50:16.280 --> 0:50:19.879
<v Speaker 3>see it reach its kind of pornographic heights. I think

0:50:19.920 --> 0:50:22.520
<v Speaker 3>it's just the the data centers are too easy to

0:50:22.560 --> 0:50:24.960
<v Speaker 3>invest in. The AI companies are too easy to invest in.

0:50:25.000 --> 0:50:27.200
<v Speaker 3>There's so many places to put your money, and they're

0:50:27.280 --> 0:50:30.600
<v Speaker 3>so brain damaged from years of ignoring the consequences of

0:50:30.600 --> 0:50:33.880
<v Speaker 3>their actions that they don't think anything can go wrong. Massio.

0:50:33.960 --> 0:50:35.640
<v Speaker 3>She's on all of them, I mean all of the

0:50:35.680 --> 0:50:38.399
<v Speaker 3>data center operators. Same deal, Hyperscale as the same deal.

0:50:38.520 --> 0:50:41.320
<v Speaker 3>They're not. They all think that they they have found

0:50:41.360 --> 0:50:42.360
<v Speaker 3>the mandate.

0:50:42.000 --> 0:50:46.799
<v Speaker 2>Of Heaven printer, Yeah, and like the thing that was

0:50:46.840 --> 0:50:49.040
<v Speaker 2>that the test is it was this the mandate of Heaven?

0:50:49.239 --> 0:50:53.200
<v Speaker 2>Is is this going to Is this going to do

0:50:53.320 --> 0:50:57.080
<v Speaker 2>to like knowledge work, for example, what containerization did to

0:50:57.120 --> 0:51:01.520
<v Speaker 2>Steve Adores? Is this going to do? Is this going

0:51:01.560 --> 0:51:05.000
<v Speaker 2>to be like the great enclosure of the digital commons

0:51:05.000 --> 0:51:06.719
<v Speaker 2>once and for all? Is this going to be the

0:51:06.760 --> 0:51:09.800
<v Speaker 2>thing that creates the new I don't know, six person

0:51:09.880 --> 0:51:13.960
<v Speaker 2>ruling class of the entire world by fundamentally transforming the

0:51:14.000 --> 0:51:17.600
<v Speaker 2>economy with this like huge technological displacement of labor? Like

0:51:17.640 --> 0:51:20.239
<v Speaker 2>that was the actual question, are you going to do that?

0:51:20.800 --> 0:51:22.960
<v Speaker 2>And on day of recording, to.

0:51:22.960 --> 0:51:25.720
<v Speaker 3>Which the answer is yeah, I reckon, Yeah, sure probably

0:51:25.960 --> 0:51:26.440
<v Speaker 3>sounds good.

0:51:26.640 --> 0:51:30.440
<v Speaker 2>Well here here's the great thing. And look, this is inferential,

0:51:30.480 --> 0:51:33.560
<v Speaker 2>This is not deductive, This is not provable. But the

0:51:33.800 --> 0:51:37.280
<v Speaker 2>Wall Street Journal has posted that Big Tech has suddenly

0:51:37.320 --> 0:51:41.239
<v Speaker 2>flipped on the AI gibe jobs wipeout scenario, where they

0:51:41.280 --> 0:51:45.839
<v Speaker 2>they've they've now they've collected some let's say, uh, barometers

0:51:45.880 --> 0:51:47.839
<v Speaker 2>of opinion from the from the big guys, the sam

0:51:47.920 --> 0:51:52.520
<v Speaker 2>Altmans and and Daryamadis and stuff surveys, and they've said, hey,

0:51:52.520 --> 0:51:55.319
<v Speaker 2>wait a minute, looks like all that all those jobs

0:51:55.360 --> 0:51:57.320
<v Speaker 2>aren't going away. A lot of people are still fired

0:51:57.360 --> 0:51:59.520
<v Speaker 2>with AI as an excuse. A lot of them got

0:51:59.560 --> 0:52:03.560
<v Speaker 2>rehighed in some cases. But this is excerpt one that

0:52:03.640 --> 0:52:06.280
<v Speaker 2>the Wall Street Journal quoted a year ago. The message

0:52:06.280 --> 0:52:08.400
<v Speaker 2>of many business leaders was that AI was going to

0:52:08.400 --> 0:52:10.839
<v Speaker 2>wipe out jobs. The past month or so, tech CEO

0:52:10.880 --> 0:52:13.640
<v Speaker 2>has been striking more optimistic tone. In late May, Sam

0:52:13.680 --> 0:52:17.600
<v Speaker 2>Altman said, we've been roughly right in the technological predictions

0:52:17.600 --> 0:52:20.359
<v Speaker 2>and pretty wrong in the social and economic implication, saying

0:52:20.400 --> 0:52:23.520
<v Speaker 2>to see NBC, our industry underestimated how much we're going

0:52:23.600 --> 0:52:25.520
<v Speaker 2>to be able to keep people at the center of everything.

0:52:25.880 --> 0:52:32.000
<v Speaker 2>But what your thing was the replace all human labor machine. Yes,

0:52:32.280 --> 0:52:35.000
<v Speaker 2>and your replace all human labor machine. What you're saying

0:52:35.080 --> 0:52:37.319
<v Speaker 2>is it's failed to replace all human labor at least

0:52:37.360 --> 0:52:39.520
<v Speaker 2>in the timescale that you need it to in order

0:52:39.560 --> 0:52:41.440
<v Speaker 2>to go public at write down a value and you

0:52:41.480 --> 0:52:42.560
<v Speaker 2>can decide how rich you are.

0:52:43.360 --> 0:52:43.760
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:52:43.840 --> 0:52:47.399
<v Speaker 5>I do kind of wonder whether, like the reason why

0:52:47.400 --> 0:52:50.279
<v Speaker 5>they don't think of the ideal consequences is because the

0:52:50.360 --> 0:52:53.160
<v Speaker 5>AI is not telling you that this might be the

0:52:53.200 --> 0:52:56.160
<v Speaker 5>thing that happens, Like I know, there's that sort of

0:52:56.160 --> 0:52:58.719
<v Speaker 5>thing where like chat O Sam Altman sort of sounds

0:52:58.800 --> 0:53:01.560
<v Speaker 5>like he is kind of just he sort of his

0:53:01.600 --> 0:53:04.000
<v Speaker 5>brain is entirely like chat GPT and that sort of

0:53:04.040 --> 0:53:06.200
<v Speaker 5>you know, the guy who sort of drinks too much

0:53:06.200 --> 0:53:09.520
<v Speaker 5>of the chol aid and becomes a cool aid guy.

0:53:09.760 --> 0:53:11.480
<v Speaker 2>How you make new kool aid guys that.

0:53:13.520 --> 0:53:14.240
<v Speaker 3>Value zero?

0:53:15.160 --> 0:53:19.120
<v Speaker 5>That's right, presably, presumably that's how it works. But yeah,

0:53:19.160 --> 0:53:20.840
<v Speaker 5>like even when I sort of think about the boosters

0:53:20.840 --> 0:53:22.560
<v Speaker 5>of stuff like ed you were just sort of saying

0:53:22.560 --> 0:53:25.799
<v Speaker 5>now about like sort of boosters and tech types who

0:53:25.840 --> 0:53:28.279
<v Speaker 5>are like genuinely surprised when people are like, hey, maybe

0:53:28.360 --> 0:53:32.000
<v Speaker 5>this thing kind of sucks or is overhyped. Like to me,

0:53:32.080 --> 0:53:34.759
<v Speaker 5>it does sort of strike is like not not just

0:53:34.800 --> 0:53:37.160
<v Speaker 5>that they believe that this has to happen and this

0:53:37.280 --> 0:53:40.239
<v Speaker 5>is like the inevitable next frontier, because if not, then

0:53:40.320 --> 0:53:42.400
<v Speaker 5>like what else You've wasted all this time, You've wasted

0:53:42.400 --> 0:53:45.239
<v Speaker 5>all this money, You've wasted all this energy basically kind

0:53:45.239 --> 0:53:47.920
<v Speaker 5>of doing nothing except creating a vanity project. But like,

0:53:48.160 --> 0:53:50.440
<v Speaker 5>one of the things that feels so evident about this

0:53:50.680 --> 0:53:54.200
<v Speaker 5>entire cohort is that like they just don't think about

0:53:54.239 --> 0:53:57.520
<v Speaker 5>consequences because I guess they don't believe it exists. Because

0:53:57.560 --> 0:54:00.319
<v Speaker 5>to believe that consequence exists, you have to be that

0:54:00.600 --> 0:54:03.399
<v Speaker 5>other people live among you and that their lives are

0:54:03.520 --> 0:54:06.440
<v Speaker 5>important and worthy of some kind of dignity.

0:54:06.480 --> 0:54:12.560
<v Speaker 3>And once you do that, wallet, when do you think

0:54:12.920 --> 0:54:15.360
<v Speaker 3>do you think he carries money? Do you think he

0:54:15.880 --> 0:54:18.200
<v Speaker 3>do you think any of these people do? Because this

0:54:18.360 --> 0:54:22.240
<v Speaker 3>is are they just so separated that the only people

0:54:22.280 --> 0:54:24.920
<v Speaker 3>they talk to are just worm tongue like figures and

0:54:25.040 --> 0:54:27.280
<v Speaker 3>chat GPT and one another.

0:54:27.440 --> 0:54:29.359
<v Speaker 5>Well, I mean yeah, I mean it's sort of it's

0:54:29.360 --> 0:54:31.640
<v Speaker 5>sort of just strike me as like the guy who

0:54:31.680 --> 0:54:33.839
<v Speaker 5>sort of has never really had to experience any type

0:54:33.880 --> 0:54:36.799
<v Speaker 5>of friction in his life and so doesn't have to

0:54:36.920 --> 0:54:39.759
<v Speaker 5>like understand that. No, there are like parts of the

0:54:39.760 --> 0:54:41.720
<v Speaker 5>world where you just can't do. I mean, it's also

0:54:41.760 --> 0:54:44.080
<v Speaker 5>like why they always get confused whenever, Like the European

0:54:44.160 --> 0:54:46.520
<v Speaker 5>Union is like, yeah, we're going to maybe regulate you,

0:54:47.000 --> 0:54:49.239
<v Speaker 5>and they're not like, oh, the regulation is bad and

0:54:49.280 --> 0:54:51.560
<v Speaker 5>we can So it's like, but why why would.

0:54:51.320 --> 0:54:52.279
<v Speaker 6>You want to regulate us?

0:54:52.400 --> 0:54:54.319
<v Speaker 3>What regulation do? Like?

0:54:54.360 --> 0:54:57.000
<v Speaker 5>Why would you why? Yeah, exactly why would you want

0:54:57.000 --> 0:54:59.560
<v Speaker 5>to restrain us? Like the idea of sort of being

0:54:59.600 --> 0:55:03.080
<v Speaker 5>held back is like completely foreign to them, and so

0:55:03.200 --> 0:55:05.040
<v Speaker 5>imagine like sort of events sort of trying to explain

0:55:05.080 --> 0:55:06.880
<v Speaker 5>to him. But hey, look like there are a lot

0:55:06.920 --> 0:55:10.720
<v Speaker 5>of societies in the world that like, you know, don't

0:55:10.800 --> 0:55:13.920
<v Speaker 5>operate using kind of you know, the computer is not

0:55:14.000 --> 0:55:16.719
<v Speaker 5>the be all and end all of like communication. You know,

0:55:18.080 --> 0:55:20.680
<v Speaker 5>people actually like talk to each other. There exist like

0:55:21.080 --> 0:55:23.759
<v Speaker 5>communities and bar systems and all those types of things.

0:55:23.760 --> 0:55:26.759
<v Speaker 5>Like imagine just trying to explain to them in general, like, hey,

0:55:26.760 --> 0:55:28.160
<v Speaker 5>like people just don't live like.

0:55:28.160 --> 0:55:32.640
<v Speaker 3>You they do. What what do you mean they run

0:55:32.680 --> 0:55:36.000
<v Speaker 3>out of runy? What does that mean? You know?

0:55:36.400 --> 0:55:37.560
<v Speaker 5>You know, it reminds me of like there was a

0:55:37.600 --> 0:55:40.359
<v Speaker 5>clip but just circulating today. It's a very old clip,

0:55:40.360 --> 0:55:42.160
<v Speaker 5>but it's like an Anthony Bourdaine clip where like he's

0:55:42.160 --> 0:55:45.319
<v Speaker 5>explaining to a bunch of like very rich Singaporeans I

0:55:45.320 --> 0:55:47.040
<v Speaker 5>think that he does his own laundry, and one of

0:55:47.080 --> 0:55:48.799
<v Speaker 5>them is just like, well, what do you mean you

0:55:48.840 --> 0:55:50.279
<v Speaker 5>do your own laundry, And he's just like, yeah, I

0:55:50.320 --> 0:55:52.040
<v Speaker 5>go to a laundromat and I put the coins in

0:55:52.480 --> 0:55:55.120
<v Speaker 5>and the machine kind of does it, and I fold it,

0:55:55.160 --> 0:55:57.359
<v Speaker 5>and I feel quite good. About doing it afterwards, and

0:55:57.440 --> 0:56:00.200
<v Speaker 5>like the reaction of this guy has is like usping

0:56:00.239 --> 0:56:02.160
<v Speaker 5>to him in a foreign language that he has never

0:56:02.239 --> 0:56:05.440
<v Speaker 5>understood the concept of, like touching his own clothes before him.

0:56:05.480 --> 0:56:07.799
<v Speaker 5>This is like, this reminds me so much of just

0:56:07.880 --> 0:56:10.399
<v Speaker 5>like what how all these guys view the way?

0:56:10.440 --> 0:56:13.000
<v Speaker 3>It got too rich? So we got time for one

0:56:13.000 --> 0:56:14.280
<v Speaker 3>more bit before we have the close.

0:56:14.440 --> 0:56:17.120
<v Speaker 2>And this one is really interesting, right because this is

0:56:17.120 --> 0:56:19.919
<v Speaker 2>one of my favorite kinds of statistics, which is how

0:56:20.000 --> 0:56:23.040
<v Speaker 2>is AI actually being used in companies? What are they

0:56:23.120 --> 0:56:26.280
<v Speaker 2>using it to do? Is it profitable? Are the pilot successful?

0:56:26.280 --> 0:56:26.640
<v Speaker 3>And so on?

0:56:27.000 --> 0:56:29.080
<v Speaker 2>The sentiment change isn't limited to tech leaders. This is

0:56:29.080 --> 0:56:32.439
<v Speaker 2>from the excerpt again. A survey by ey Parthenon found

0:56:32.440 --> 0:56:34.879
<v Speaker 2>that the percentage of CEOs who believe AI investments will

0:56:34.880 --> 0:56:38.279
<v Speaker 2>result in significant reductions at headcount fell from forty six

0:56:38.320 --> 0:56:41.320
<v Speaker 2>percent in January twenty twenty five to just twenty percent.

0:56:41.400 --> 0:56:47.760
<v Speaker 3>This may and even the most credulous worm eventually turns yeah,

0:56:47.920 --> 0:56:51.799
<v Speaker 3>and like so it just goes back to, well, if

0:56:51.800 --> 0:56:55.279
<v Speaker 3>the firms aren't more productive and they're not able to

0:56:55.280 --> 0:56:58.960
<v Speaker 3>be the same level of product productive with the with

0:56:58.960 --> 0:57:01.640
<v Speaker 3>with with fewer people, like if these things aren't happening,

0:57:02.120 --> 0:57:04.280
<v Speaker 3>and the thing is starting to cost what it costs,

0:57:04.280 --> 0:57:05.319
<v Speaker 3>and what it costs.

0:57:05.040 --> 0:57:09.839
<v Speaker 2>Is enormous, and it's still being subsidized and in order

0:57:10.000 --> 0:57:12.759
<v Speaker 2>to continue building up the demand that they think that

0:57:12.800 --> 0:57:15.520
<v Speaker 2>they'll need even if the thing suddenly goes to one

0:57:15.600 --> 0:57:18.280
<v Speaker 2>hundred as everyone needs it for everything, even if all

0:57:18.280 --> 0:57:21.000
<v Speaker 2>that happens, they still can't build the data centers. Then

0:57:21.120 --> 0:57:24.960
<v Speaker 2>it's just like in the grand story that you know, you,

0:57:25.200 --> 0:57:27.120
<v Speaker 2>that you've been telling ed and that we've been sort

0:57:27.120 --> 0:57:29.400
<v Speaker 2>of checking in on you with every once and again.

0:57:30.160 --> 0:57:32.880
<v Speaker 2>Is that like if the coyotes run off the cliff,

0:57:33.280 --> 0:57:36.280
<v Speaker 2>he's held up the sign and is looked down and

0:57:36.320 --> 0:57:39.920
<v Speaker 2>has held up the sign that says oh no yeah,

0:57:40.080 --> 0:57:43.520
<v Speaker 2>or he's opened he's opened up the little parasol and

0:57:43.560 --> 0:57:45.760
<v Speaker 2>the boulders falling on top of him. This is the

0:57:45.800 --> 0:57:49.120
<v Speaker 2>moment where he has looked down. Yeah, because that was

0:57:49.160 --> 0:57:51.440
<v Speaker 2>that like the moment where he looks down. That was

0:57:51.480 --> 0:57:53.600
<v Speaker 2>going to be when the thing has to start costing

0:57:53.640 --> 0:57:56.240
<v Speaker 2>what it costs, right, not even making a profit, just

0:57:56.240 --> 0:57:57.120
<v Speaker 2>costing what it costs.

0:57:58.040 --> 0:58:00.800
<v Speaker 3>And that's now happened. Yeah, And now all the companies

0:58:00.840 --> 0:58:02.640
<v Speaker 3>are freaking out that it costs a lot of money,

0:58:02.960 --> 0:58:05.680
<v Speaker 3>and I think it's just that. So you'll notice we

0:58:05.720 --> 0:58:08.280
<v Speaker 3>haven't had a revenue update from in a while, and

0:58:08.320 --> 0:58:10.439
<v Speaker 3>I have to wonder if that story might change too.

0:58:10.440 --> 0:58:13.080
<v Speaker 3>But honestly, the biggest warning sign, and the biggest sign

0:58:13.160 --> 0:58:15.680
<v Speaker 3>the coyote looked down is when Sam, when when asked

0:58:15.680 --> 0:58:18.800
<v Speaker 3>about these costs set on stage. Yeah, it's become a

0:58:18.880 --> 0:58:21.040
<v Speaker 3>huge issue.

0:58:21.320 --> 0:58:24.760
<v Speaker 2>Yes, someone should look into that.

0:58:24.800 --> 0:58:29.440
<v Speaker 3>It's like a just like, oh, all right, well he

0:58:29.560 --> 0:58:31.800
<v Speaker 3>basically got the exact quote, but he was like, yes,

0:58:31.840 --> 0:58:34.120
<v Speaker 3>someone's gonna have industry is gonna have to sort that out.

0:58:34.720 --> 0:58:37.400
<v Speaker 3>It's just like you are, bully the big problem.

0:58:37.440 --> 0:58:41.120
<v Speaker 2>So hopefully the big Black Problem solving box will do that.

0:58:41.320 --> 0:58:43.880
<v Speaker 3>I shouldn't check what's in it, sell the compute to

0:58:44.000 --> 0:58:46.080
<v Speaker 3>who Sam fucking Aquaman.

0:58:48.640 --> 0:58:50.920
<v Speaker 2>Look, I know we're we got a bit of a

0:58:50.960 --> 0:58:53.640
<v Speaker 2>hard stop today, so I'm gonna I'm gonna call it there.

0:58:54.640 --> 0:59:01.200
<v Speaker 3>ED joint Venture stat seventeen billion dollars raised and eighteen

0:59:02.440 --> 0:59:04.640
<v Speaker 3>and we have lost the money already, so we're gonna

0:59:04.640 --> 0:59:06.640
<v Speaker 3>have to keep doing this. Thanks a lot everyone for

0:59:06.720 --> 0:59:07.320
<v Speaker 3>joining us.

0:59:08.760 --> 0:59:12.960
<v Speaker 2>We've been TF and Ed's been better offline, and we

0:59:13.040 --> 0:59:15.640
<v Speaker 2>will see you on our various If you're listening to this,

0:59:15.720 --> 0:59:17.320
<v Speaker 2>you know the deal. If it's TF, will see you

0:59:17.360 --> 0:59:21.080
<v Speaker 2>on the bonus episode. If it's Better Offline, you'll see

0:59:21.200 --> 0:59:22.280
<v Speaker 2>ed on Better Offline.

0:59:22.600 --> 0:59:24.640
<v Speaker 3>I should so you see you on the bonus episode

0:59:24.760 --> 0:59:28.760
<v Speaker 3>either way, Yeah, exactly, Thanks everybody, cheers, Bye bye,