1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,160 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:31,400 Speaker 2: She is with Private Wealth, Chief investment strategist Private Wealth 7 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:34,960 Speaker 2: of Partners Group. Anastasia Mrosa joins us, and she is 8 00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 2: one of the select few that said, climb on board 9 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:44,160 Speaker 2: this American economic experiment and enjoy a multi year bull market. 10 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:46,879 Speaker 2: Are we gonna double digit again this year? Are we 11 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:48,879 Speaker 2: going to pop four years? Is it four years in 12 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:49,240 Speaker 2: a row? 13 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:49,920 Speaker 3: I double? 14 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:52,240 Speaker 4: I think we have a chance aid that for sure. 15 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:53,760 Speaker 4: I mean earlier in the year I thought we would 16 00:00:53,760 --> 00:00:56,360 Speaker 4: have hit seven thousand and stayed there. We haven't managed 17 00:00:56,400 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 4: to do that yet. We pulled back three or three 18 00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:01,880 Speaker 4: or five. But the expectation for the year was around 19 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:04,560 Speaker 4: seven percent returns. So yes, Tom, we might get to 20 00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 4: that ten percent or more for this year. But you know, 21 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:10,480 Speaker 4: the broader back drop is supportive right on a number 22 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 4: of different factors. The consumer side, I think is actually 23 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:17,480 Speaker 4: strengthening this year as we speak. The other notable development. 24 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:20,160 Speaker 4: For me, this week is all about CAPEX and CAPEX 25 00:01:20,200 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 4: not only the United States and not only from hyperscalers, 26 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:26,399 Speaker 4: but CAPEX globally. We've got the European manufacturing numbers came 27 00:01:26,400 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 4: out this morning and those popped quite significantly, driven by 28 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:32,959 Speaker 4: German physical stimulus. So you know, back to kind of 29 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:36,119 Speaker 4: the US economy though CAPEX also is an engine now 30 00:01:36,720 --> 00:01:38,399 Speaker 4: and then housing maybe that'll pick up two. 31 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 3: Yesterday Paul was way too optimistic. 32 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:43,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I mean, I'm sorry, there's like an 33 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:44,400 Speaker 2: optimistic tone corner. 34 00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:46,920 Speaker 5: There is a little bit good earnings out there on 35 00:01:47,080 --> 00:01:49,600 Speaker 5: a stage. I'm looking at the WEI function here for 36 00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:52,920 Speaker 5: the world equity indices. The US is doing fine as 37 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 5: it did less year. 38 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 3: But the rest of the world's doing better. 39 00:01:56,040 --> 00:02:00,320 Speaker 5: Right, so rest of the world versus US outperform buy 40 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 5: and large last year, Ye, same this year. How do 41 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 5: you view kind of where to allocate geographically? 42 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:06,280 Speaker 6: Right? 43 00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 4: I think the way we see allocations is that you 44 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 4: don't pick one or the other. You do both. You 45 00:02:12,040 --> 00:02:14,520 Speaker 4: do US, you do Europe, you do Asia. And the 46 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 4: reason for that, you know, if you think about the 47 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:19,840 Speaker 4: next five years, let's say it's all about localization, supply chains, 48 00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:22,560 Speaker 4: it's on shoring. It's about you know, making sure you 49 00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:24,880 Speaker 4: cater to the domestic consumer. So it used to be 50 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:27,720 Speaker 4: that you could allocate to a US multinational and that 51 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 4: would get to the Europe exposure or China exposure. That's 52 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:32,600 Speaker 4: no longer the case. So that's why I think you 53 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 4: have to invest in each specific region. But to bring 54 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 4: it back to sort of the cyclical momentum, I think 55 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:40,760 Speaker 4: the reason why Europe is actually seeing an our performance 56 00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:44,760 Speaker 4: versus the US because the US has this rolling AI scare. 57 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 4: You know, maybe it's software names, maybe it's wealth tech names, 58 00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:50,360 Speaker 4: and so the AI exposure has not been a positive 59 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 4: to the market. But I think even beyond that, there 60 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 4: is something positive happening in Europe. It is the German 61 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 4: fiscal stimulus that I mentioned that is showing up in 62 00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:02,480 Speaker 4: the manufacturing momentum. It is also the fact that Europe 63 00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:04,919 Speaker 4: is striking deals of its own. You know, fifty percent 64 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:07,000 Speaker 4: of global GDP is covered by some sort of a 65 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 4: trade deal with EU now, the latest one being with India, 66 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 4: so that's a big deal. And then you have this 67 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 4: bifurcation between the Northern Europe versus southern and Southern being 68 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 4: more services oriented, consumption oriented, so that's holding up well too. 69 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 4: So we've always liked Europe. We invested about thirty nine 70 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:27,640 Speaker 4: percent of Summer solutions in Europe. But I think there 71 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:29,519 Speaker 4: is a cyclical upside to it as well. 72 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 5: Now in the US market, we've seen a pronounced rotation 73 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 5: starting I guess in late October November. Is that a 74 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 5: short term trade or is that something more prominent, do 75 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 5: you think or because it's we've in the US market's 76 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 5: always been led by tech, always led by tech. But yeah, 77 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:45,680 Speaker 5: it seems to be rotation a little bit. 78 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:48,120 Speaker 4: I mean, it feels a little different to me this time, 79 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:50,440 Speaker 4: you know. And no, I don't think the hyperscala trade 80 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 4: has gone. I don't think the semic inductors are not 81 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 4: going to perform. But I do think there's this realization 82 00:03:56,120 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 4: that for the last maybe ten years, it's been software's 83 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 4: world and all been living in it, and software was 84 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 4: eating the world and so on, and it's been sort 85 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:07,280 Speaker 4: of you know, the business model that's acid light, that's 86 00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:10,400 Speaker 4: what's benefited. But as I think about going forward, it 87 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 4: might be that we're in the acid heavy economy once again. 88 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:17,159 Speaker 4: It's about physical assets, tangible assets. They can be made 89 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:20,159 Speaker 4: obsolete by the stroke of AI overnight. 90 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:22,800 Speaker 3: You're brilliant on this in New Mexico years ago. Let's 91 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 3: bring it in. 92 00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 2: What happens to your world if the hyperscalers decide to 93 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 2: grow up and actually issued debt like Google did the 94 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 2: other day. I look at that, you know, zbody one 95 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:37,600 Speaker 2: on one up but bu and it's just got to 96 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:39,600 Speaker 2: be a plus plus plus for confidence. 97 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:43,440 Speaker 4: Well, that's right. And the reason why they're confident to 98 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:45,600 Speaker 4: do so is because they have the free cash flow 99 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:48,960 Speaker 4: to do that. And you know, although to Paul's point, 100 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:51,920 Speaker 4: the markets were fearful and the spreads were somewhat widening, 101 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:53,600 Speaker 4: you know, back at the tail end of last year, 102 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:56,080 Speaker 4: the realization is they have hundreds of billions of free 103 00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 4: cash flow and you know, just cash on the sideline, 104 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:02,159 Speaker 4: so they can afford to issue that debt. The reason, 105 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 4: tomm I think there is such a great deal of 106 00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 4: confidence for hyperscalers is because they do see the future 107 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:11,560 Speaker 4: potential growth in their cloud revenues and whether it's Google, 108 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:14,360 Speaker 4: whether it's others. You know, you see that hockey stick 109 00:05:14,400 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 4: infliction higher in cloud revenues. That's important. They also see 110 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 4: the revenues of their customers the likes of open AI 111 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 4: Andthropic and others, and those have been going up substantially 112 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:24,840 Speaker 4: as well. 113 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 5: Earnings were I don't know about eighty percent the way 114 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:30,039 Speaker 5: through the S and P five hundred reporting earnings. They 115 00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:33,120 Speaker 5: look pretty solid to me. Are they enough to support 116 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:34,679 Speaker 5: this market here going forward? 117 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:38,360 Speaker 4: They do look solid? Absolutely, And you know, I think 118 00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 4: what's actually really interesting, too, Paul, is that even earnings 119 00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:45,080 Speaker 4: for software companies that we've worried about also look solid. 120 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:49,200 Speaker 4: Will look through a number of software companies and sixty 121 00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:52,559 Speaker 4: percent or so of them reported and eighty to one hundred, 122 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:56,360 Speaker 4: depending on the sector of reported positive earning surprise and 123 00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:59,600 Speaker 4: earnings growth of twenty or thirty percent, so that alleviates 124 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:02,120 Speaker 4: some fee in that particular pocket of the market. And 125 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:04,599 Speaker 4: then beyond that for the market in general, take a 126 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:07,400 Speaker 4: look at the profit margin. It's going up, is gone 127 00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:10,600 Speaker 4: up despite tariffs, and we're looking for you record thirteen 128 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:15,719 Speaker 4: point nine percent profit margin. That's likely driven by an me. 129 00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:17,719 Speaker 3: Make it to Tyler, say we make it the Supreme 130 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:19,919 Speaker 3: Court thing today? Couldn't they? Yeah? I mean they're definitely 131 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:21,640 Speaker 3: gonna they give them away of the hockey game. 132 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 4: So I hope not we don't want that. 133 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:26,560 Speaker 3: We don't have that Anasta Jamres. 134 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:29,719 Speaker 2: So we continue where the chief investment strategiest Partners Group 135 00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:32,559 Speaker 2: nailed the bull market to see be direct. 136 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:34,720 Speaker 3: Is this the Partners Group of Switzerland? 137 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 4: It is, of course yes. 138 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 3: All a soup costs forty dollars in a. 139 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:42,080 Speaker 4: Wrestle, it's quite a lot. 140 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:45,840 Speaker 3: Does the Swiss want to buy America? 141 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:49,160 Speaker 2: Because we have a different different people saying they're saying, well, 142 00:06:49,440 --> 00:06:51,360 Speaker 2: you know, people are sort of upset with President Trump, 143 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:53,040 Speaker 2: da da da da da, but they really want to 144 00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:58,600 Speaker 2: buy America. To the Swiss institutions and continental europe institutions, 145 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:00,960 Speaker 2: do they want to buy micro Look? 146 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:04,720 Speaker 4: I think the realization for all institutions globally is that 147 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:07,800 Speaker 4: you might disagree with the current policies, you might disagree 148 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 4: with the current tactics, but not to invest in America 149 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:13,080 Speaker 4: is not an investor's best interest. You know, you think 150 00:07:13,120 --> 00:07:16,680 Speaker 4: about the corporate tax rate and again the fiscal stimulus 151 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:18,560 Speaker 4: that we have come in into the US. You look 152 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:20,880 Speaker 4: at the innovation, you look at the margins, you look 153 00:07:20,880 --> 00:07:24,120 Speaker 4: at the productivity gates. It's really difficult not to allocate 154 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:27,680 Speaker 4: capital here. I will say one question mark for investors 155 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:29,960 Speaker 4: has been around the direction of the US dollar, and 156 00:07:30,000 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 4: if the dollar weakness continues, does that actually eat away 157 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:37,160 Speaker 4: at your return significantly? You know, we're of the view 158 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 4: then you know, we're at a point where there should 159 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:43,160 Speaker 4: be some more stable conditions between the euro dollar, for example. 160 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:46,240 Speaker 4: So with that as a backdrop, the capital flows definitely 161 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 4: should continue to the US. 162 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:49,560 Speaker 5: How about what are we doing in the bond market here? 163 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:51,640 Speaker 5: I can sit in into your treasure and get three 164 00:07:51,640 --> 00:07:55,280 Speaker 5: and a half percent. Are you suggesting your clients take 165 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:57,360 Speaker 5: credit risk above and beyond that? 166 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:02,000 Speaker 4: Yes, I mean for a you know, more risk averse, 167 00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 4: you know, individual perhaps looing at the shorter term of 168 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:07,600 Speaker 4: the US curve might make sense. But you know, we're 169 00:08:07,640 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 4: also investors in private credit, and you know, private credit, 170 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:13,440 Speaker 4: despite the headlines that are out there, we see fundamentals 171 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:15,600 Speaker 4: that are still quite solid. I can elaborate on that 172 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 4: in just a minute. But we also see the yields 173 00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:20,600 Speaker 4: that have come down from twelve percent, but they're hovering, 174 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 4: let's say around nine or ten percent, which is still 175 00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:27,400 Speaker 4: quite attractive in a world where rates elsewhere are going down. Now, 176 00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:30,640 Speaker 4: back to the solid fundamentals of private credit. First of all, 177 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:33,840 Speaker 4: default rates are holding steady and they're quite low. They're 178 00:08:33,840 --> 00:08:36,439 Speaker 4: also bifurcated. You know, if you're in the cyclical industry 179 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:39,280 Speaker 4: like autos, yes you're going to see a higher default rate. 180 00:08:39,400 --> 00:08:40,040 Speaker 7: If you are a. 181 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:43,839 Speaker 4: Non sponsor backed credit, you might see a higher default rate. 182 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:46,840 Speaker 4: But if you look at the sponsor backed especially secular 183 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 4: growth credits, we're looking at a fall rate of one 184 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:52,360 Speaker 4: one and a half percent, which is quite low and 185 00:08:52,440 --> 00:08:55,160 Speaker 4: quite normal. So and even in software pally, I would 186 00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:57,240 Speaker 4: say for private credit, we're still seeing a default rate 187 00:08:57,320 --> 00:09:00,160 Speaker 4: that's half what it is for the index. So a 188 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:02,760 Speaker 4: lot of the noise that's out there is noise, and 189 00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:06,000 Speaker 4: I think investors would be well served to take some 190 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:07,120 Speaker 4: risk in private credit. 191 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, you mentioned software. 192 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:12,040 Speaker 5: We've seen such a rotation out of software stocks as 193 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:15,240 Speaker 5: part of that AI concern. Rippling through the market is 194 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:17,760 Speaker 5: a time. I mean a lot of these names, you're like, well, 195 00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:20,280 Speaker 5: I always wanted to buy them, but they were too expensive. Yeah, 196 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 5: it's now time to I hate the falling knife scenario, 197 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:26,080 Speaker 5: but it seems like some of these names are pretty attractive. 198 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:29,040 Speaker 4: I think some of them are, but that's the key word. 199 00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:31,839 Speaker 4: There is some you know, I wouldn't necessarily step in 200 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:34,319 Speaker 4: and buy the full index or the full ETF because 201 00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:38,040 Speaker 4: some parts of the software universe have sold off rightfully. 202 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 4: So you know, first of all, if you looked at 203 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 4: the valuation before the valuation was based on annual recurring 204 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 4: revenue growth, that would assume to be x. But now 205 00:09:47,640 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 4: that ARR growth has come down for a lot of 206 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:51,880 Speaker 4: those names, and maybe it's not ever going to get 207 00:09:51,920 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 4: back to those twenty twenty one levels because of agentic AI. 208 00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:57,360 Speaker 4: So are you going to pay the same multiple or 209 00:09:57,480 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 4: is the low multiple attractive if you have lower revenues? 210 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:00,719 Speaker 7: Maybe not. 211 00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:03,719 Speaker 4: I wouldn't step in there, but some incumbents are worth 212 00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:04,160 Speaker 4: looking at it. 213 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:06,760 Speaker 2: My essay a couple of years ago, Lawrence McDonald was 214 00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 2: just brilliant on the absolute wall of money that has 215 00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:13,439 Speaker 2: to find a place to go in investment. 216 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:14,640 Speaker 3: It's still there. 217 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:19,000 Speaker 2: Isn't after the amoroso bull market of the last five years. 218 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:22,680 Speaker 2: I mean like it's tech season now, I mean every 219 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:26,599 Speaker 2: pick the calendar date. You know better than me, Anastasia. 220 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:29,720 Speaker 2: There's just still this just wall of money that's got 221 00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:30,679 Speaker 2: to find a place to go. 222 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:31,000 Speaker 3: Right. 223 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:33,040 Speaker 4: There is there is, and it's really coming from a 224 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 4: lot of different places. You know, if you think about 225 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:37,840 Speaker 4: kind of the consumer side of it. This year in particular, 226 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 4: we're looking for higher refunds. Some of it will twenty 227 00:10:40,640 --> 00:10:42,880 Speaker 4: four percent year of year. Some of them will find 228 00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:44,840 Speaker 4: its way into consumption, but some of it will find 229 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 4: itself an investing If I think about the institutional capital worldwide, 230 00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 4: you have some some of the sovereign wealth funds that 231 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:55,560 Speaker 4: are benefiting or example, from continued sales of natural resources, 232 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:58,360 Speaker 4: and so you have that steady stream of revenue that's 233 00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:00,439 Speaker 4: finding its way into the market. And then you know, 234 00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:03,120 Speaker 4: if you think about corporates, and we talked about margins, 235 00:11:03,160 --> 00:11:07,360 Speaker 4: we talked about the cash accumulations, that too is adding 236 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:09,480 Speaker 4: to it. So you know, maybe Tom kind of the 237 00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:12,679 Speaker 4: extension to your question, well, is there too much money 238 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:15,520 Speaker 4: and especially in private markets, you know, chasing some of 239 00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:18,880 Speaker 4: these deals, And yes, there's an increasing amount of capital, 240 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 4: but I would say there's an increasing amount of opportunity 241 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 4: as well. 242 00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:23,959 Speaker 2: Alexis and Paul and I we have no life, so 243 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:26,760 Speaker 2: I've got to ask. One of the most famous restaurants 244 00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:29,840 Speaker 2: in the world, folks is where Partners Group. 245 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:33,400 Speaker 3: It's like the lunch room for Partners Group in Switzerland. 246 00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:36,599 Speaker 2: Is Zoom Yeah, it's the I'm going to butcher the 247 00:11:36,640 --> 00:11:40,840 Speaker 2: pronunciation guesthouse wrath scaler. Did you go to the seventeenth 248 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:45,760 Speaker 2: century guest house rest scalar? I think an overpriced Swiss lunch. 249 00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:46,959 Speaker 2: I did not. 250 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:50,280 Speaker 4: I had a wonderful Swiss dinner at a restaurant the 251 00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:53,000 Speaker 4: name I cannot remember. But no that I will put 252 00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:53,520 Speaker 4: that on my list. 253 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 2: Hold, they have Swiss prim Rin's enter coat, brom butter, Belpernol. 254 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:04,439 Speaker 3: No idea for like seventy dollars. Put me down. I 255 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:06,400 Speaker 3: think that's like Selberry's state. 256 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:08,720 Speaker 4: AT's sake, it sounds great. 257 00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 3: What is it like working for the Swiss? I mean, 258 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:14,480 Speaker 3: this is very cool. But you go right to get there? 259 00:12:14,640 --> 00:12:17,200 Speaker 4: Yes, to go to Zurich. Zuog is about a thirty 260 00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:20,040 Speaker 4: four minute drive from there on the east coast of 261 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:25,160 Speaker 4: the lake. There are a lot of lakes. There are 262 00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:26,959 Speaker 4: a lot of lakes and a lot of mountains. But no, 263 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:30,880 Speaker 4: it's a partners group. Has been an exceptional place to 264 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 4: be at and it's we've got a thirty year history, 265 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:35,600 Speaker 4: actually a thirty year anniversary for us as this. 266 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:38,800 Speaker 2: Year shops run out of you know, between Boulder and Denver. Right, 267 00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:41,679 Speaker 2: So you go she goes to zug and as the 268 00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:43,680 Speaker 2: barley soup and then she goes out there and his ELK. 269 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, that's right. And we do also have a presence 270 00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:48,640 Speaker 4: in New York. But you know there's a lot of 271 00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:50,920 Speaker 4: investment processes that have been in place for a long time, 272 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:53,560 Speaker 4: and you know that that does come with Swiss discipline. 273 00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:56,480 Speaker 4: I think the thing that strikes me is the the 274 00:12:56,760 --> 00:12:59,560 Speaker 4: global perspective that we're able to bring to our clients 275 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:03,680 Speaker 4: in the integration that we have within our team. 276 00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:05,520 Speaker 3: So what your research onw is telling me is your 277 00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:06,120 Speaker 3: long Europe. 278 00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:11,120 Speaker 4: Yes, we are thirty forty percent has been an allocation 279 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:13,439 Speaker 4: to Europe and we're up towards the higher range of 280 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:15,920 Speaker 4: that right now, Straight company Swiss. 281 00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:18,400 Speaker 2: Oh yeah absolutely, But Paul, I mean I think you know, 282 00:13:18,520 --> 00:13:21,120 Speaker 2: we can do a remote from Scenic zoog Yep from 283 00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:23,000 Speaker 2: the guesthouse Reth Skelet. 284 00:13:23,080 --> 00:13:25,800 Speaker 3: It's like Wicked famous restaurant, and we'll let's. 285 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 4: Make it happen. We'll make it happen. 286 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:33,440 Speaker 2: Anastajamarosa Partners Groups in Switzerland and Broomfield, Colorado. 287 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:34,400 Speaker 3: Thank you so much for joining us. 288 00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:40,360 Speaker 8: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 289 00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:51,280 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch US Live 290 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:54,480 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 291 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:58,240 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Atto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 292 00:13:58,440 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 1: watch US Live on YouTube. 293 00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:02,319 Speaker 2: So Alexis mentioned the math, I want to go over it, 294 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 2: and Lindsay's going to tell me what to do. 295 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:04,679 Speaker 3: You're Lindsay, Pigs. 296 00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:10,160 Speaker 2: This was Stifel nominal GDP last time around, ending September 297 00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:14,520 Speaker 2: thirty was a China like eight point three percent, Paul. 298 00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:17,719 Speaker 2: If you add in the one percent government shutdown, we 299 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:21,440 Speaker 2: go from five point one percent published nominal to six 300 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:24,880 Speaker 2: point one Ish. I'm going to say, there is Well 301 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:28,640 Speaker 2: joining us, the Queen of Ish in economics, Lindsay Pigs 302 00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:31,600 Speaker 2: joining us. What do you do with these numbers? Lindsay, 303 00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:35,400 Speaker 2: how do you format the view forward? Given the plethora 304 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:37,600 Speaker 2: of data in the last ten minutes. 305 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:40,480 Speaker 9: Well, I think when we dig through some of the details, 306 00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:43,080 Speaker 9: we're going to see that it's pretty messy, particularly given 307 00:14:43,120 --> 00:14:45,600 Speaker 9: that the economy was shut down for almost half of 308 00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:48,280 Speaker 9: that three month period. Now, the President says it shaved 309 00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:51,320 Speaker 9: off about two points. The BA says it shaved off 310 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 9: about one percent. So we know that there was a 311 00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:58,400 Speaker 9: significant damping down effect, regardless of whether it's one or 312 00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:01,560 Speaker 9: two percentage points. So parsing through some of the details, 313 00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:04,080 Speaker 9: I think the more important figure to focus on right 314 00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:07,160 Speaker 9: now to really gauge the underlying momentum of the economy 315 00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:10,880 Speaker 9: is let's strip out inventories, let's strip out trade. Let's 316 00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:14,560 Speaker 9: look at real final sales to domestic purchasers, which rose 317 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:17,640 Speaker 9: at two point four percent, more in line with what 318 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:20,760 Speaker 9: we saw in the third quarter at two point nine percent. 319 00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:23,760 Speaker 2: Well, that's like, that's brilliant and I really really buy 320 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 2: this angle from years ago at Fidelity with Betina Dalton. 321 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:30,560 Speaker 2: And the bottom line, Paul is that's a pretty good 322 00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:32,080 Speaker 2: number number. 323 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:34,640 Speaker 5: I think it's a pretty good number. And how about 324 00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:36,880 Speaker 5: the inflation outlook there, lindsay, if you're given that the 325 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:40,760 Speaker 5: economy is growing at a solid rate, what's the inflation 326 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:41,840 Speaker 5: story on top of that. 327 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:46,000 Speaker 9: Well, as you know, I have been long concerned about 328 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 9: inflation and the Fed's lack of focus on inflation. So 329 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:50,680 Speaker 9: we see this pick up to two point nine percent, 330 00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:53,800 Speaker 9: and that is in the wrong direction. We don't see 331 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:57,440 Speaker 9: this ongoing improvement of disinflation that the FED remains very 332 00:15:57,480 --> 00:16:00,680 Speaker 9: optimistic that we're going to achieve eating back to two 333 00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:04,520 Speaker 9: percent as the forecast by twenty twenty eight. Now, any improvement, 334 00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 9: of course, is welcome, but I do expect inflation to 335 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:10,960 Speaker 9: remain elevated nearer that three percent pace for some time, 336 00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:13,520 Speaker 9: which will keep pressure on the bed to remain on 337 00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:14,200 Speaker 9: the sideline. 338 00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:16,880 Speaker 2: She so under sells it. I mean she was my 339 00:16:17,040 --> 00:16:19,160 Speaker 2: Economist of the year one year or two years, three 340 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:22,400 Speaker 2: years ago, I can't remember. Lindsay with Jim Bianco was 341 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:26,200 Speaker 2: out front with Mohamma and Larian. You know what, folks, 342 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:28,119 Speaker 2: Inflation is going to be resilient. 343 00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:29,280 Speaker 3: She nailed it. 344 00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:32,280 Speaker 5: So, Lindsay, talk to us about kind of how you 345 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:35,320 Speaker 5: think the Fed is digesting the numbers we had today, 346 00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:37,680 Speaker 5: some of the labor data we had last week, the 347 00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 5: CPI data we had last week. 348 00:16:39,960 --> 00:16:41,400 Speaker 3: How are they putting it all together? Do you think? 349 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:42,280 Speaker 5: Well? 350 00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 9: I think right now the Fed is looking at this 351 00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:48,120 Speaker 9: moderate trend line in activity as a justification for their 352 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 9: earlier decision to cut rates. Remember, over the past two years, 353 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:53,760 Speaker 9: we're now one hundred and seventy five basis points closer 354 00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:59,000 Speaker 9: or arguably at now that neutral level. But the reacceleration 355 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:02,400 Speaker 9: in payroll in the latest report. The pickup as we 356 00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:06,159 Speaker 9: saw this morning in inflation is going to really solidify 357 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:08,920 Speaker 9: now their position on the sidelines. As we saw in 358 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:12,520 Speaker 9: the minutes yesterday, there were some members that we're considering 359 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 9: that we're willing to consider a rate hike scenario. I 360 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:18,240 Speaker 9: don't think we're there quite yet. This is a FED 361 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:22,240 Speaker 9: that has been willing to tolerate above target inflation for years, 362 00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:25,639 Speaker 9: So simply maintaining this three ish percent isn't going to 363 00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:28,720 Speaker 9: move the needle. But they are sending the signal to 364 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:32,040 Speaker 9: the marketplace that they're focused on inflation and that should 365 00:17:32,080 --> 00:17:34,960 Speaker 9: help rein in market excuse me, inflation expectations. 366 00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:37,320 Speaker 2: We have a PhD in economics. You can say ish 367 00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:40,840 Speaker 2: yep with quality Lindsay, I mean, I mean. The bottom 368 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:44,159 Speaker 2: line here is it's a K shaped economy. We're going 369 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 2: to get all sorts of mail. You guys are nuts. 370 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:49,920 Speaker 2: You have no idea to struggle out here after fourteen 371 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:51,120 Speaker 2: minutes of analysis. 372 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:54,119 Speaker 3: How K shaped is our K shaped America? 373 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 9: Well, I would argue it's not necessarily a K shaped, 374 00:17:57,600 --> 00:17:59,400 Speaker 9: but more of an E shaped recovery. 375 00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:00,920 Speaker 7: It's going to be uneven. 376 00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:04,879 Speaker 9: Certainly, there is this dichotomy across classes, particularly as we 377 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:09,200 Speaker 9: see household net worth significantly increase for those at the 378 00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:12,879 Speaker 9: upper end of the income spectrum as a result of 379 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:15,440 Speaker 9: a run up in asset prices via the housing market 380 00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:18,600 Speaker 9: the equity market, a benefit which the middle class and 381 00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 9: the lower end of the income spectrum has not benefited from. 382 00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 9: But we do see other stimulants coming out into the economy, 383 00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:28,840 Speaker 9: the One Big Beautiful Bill Act averting a reset to 384 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:32,280 Speaker 9: a higher tax rate. This won't necessarily provide a windfall 385 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 9: to spending, but it will help to maintain the current 386 00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:38,879 Speaker 9: levels of expenditures across those different rungs in the E 387 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:43,159 Speaker 9: shaped recovery so on. Even yes, but not necessarily a 388 00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:47,320 Speaker 9: K shaped where some are particularly perpetually i should say, 389 00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:50,440 Speaker 9: doing better and others are losing momentum. 390 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:53,560 Speaker 5: How much of an impact are you expecting, lindsay from 391 00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:56,560 Speaker 5: some of the President's legislation, the One Big Beautiful Bill, 392 00:18:56,640 --> 00:18:59,800 Speaker 5: I mean, are you factoring that into your GDP forecast, 393 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:03,040 Speaker 5: your consumer spending forecast? How is that impacting things? 394 00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:06,360 Speaker 9: Well, we're looking at the overall impact on the economy 395 00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 9: for twenty twenty six to be upwards of several tenths 396 00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:12,080 Speaker 9: of a percentage point. Now, that doesn't seem like a lot. 397 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:14,639 Speaker 9: But again, as we're looking at an economy at a 398 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:17,680 Speaker 9: growth rate at two point two percent last year, any 399 00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:21,760 Speaker 9: additional boost to consumers or businesses it is a welcome 400 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:24,880 Speaker 9: step in the right direction. But right now, I think 401 00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:26,879 Speaker 9: the biggest factor is going to be how much of 402 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:31,040 Speaker 9: a dampening effect does that overheing of elephanty prices take 403 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:34,240 Speaker 9: out of consumer's ability to spend out in the marketplace. 404 00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:36,680 Speaker 2: So help us here with what Alexis said, and she 405 00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:39,280 Speaker 2: took her queue from the President of the United States. 406 00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:42,080 Speaker 2: He's out with the tweets saying it costs two points 407 00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:45,800 Speaker 2: a shutdown Lindsey pigs and just back of the Steifel 408 00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:49,640 Speaker 2: Nicholas envelope, how much do you add on to real 409 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:52,680 Speaker 2: GDP to get where we are now? 410 00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:58,880 Speaker 9: I think the President may be looking at this overly, 411 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 9: maybe accounting a bit more for the shutdown then I 412 00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:06,280 Speaker 9: would assign. I would say, maybe in line with the 413 00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:10,280 Speaker 9: ba's forecast of about one percent. But remember whatever we 414 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:13,680 Speaker 9: lost at the end of the year, we typically regain 415 00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:17,359 Speaker 9: when the government reopens, and so if there was a 416 00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:20,360 Speaker 9: one percent loss, we're likely going to see an even 417 00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:23,120 Speaker 9: stronger one percent boost across the first quarter. 418 00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:25,480 Speaker 4: Now this time it is a little more complicated because we. 419 00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:28,520 Speaker 9: Did see that second round shutdown, although it was much 420 00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:33,040 Speaker 9: shorter and much less disruptive. But I would expect that 421 00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:36,000 Speaker 9: to be reclaimed. Anything that was lost at the end 422 00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:37,840 Speaker 9: of the year to be reclaimed at least within the 423 00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:39,440 Speaker 9: first half of twenty twenty. 424 00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:41,560 Speaker 3: Six, Doctor Peas And thanks so much, Lindsay p because 425 00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:41,880 Speaker 3: it was st. 426 00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:48,000 Speaker 8: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 427 00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:58,920 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live 428 00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:02,000 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. He's durn listen 429 00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:05,600 Speaker 1: on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app 430 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,159 Speaker 1: or what us Live on YouTube to. 431 00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:10,280 Speaker 2: Look at the summary of the market. What do you 432 00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:13,480 Speaker 2: do you look at foreign exchange? Jane Foley joins us 433 00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:16,320 Speaker 2: from rival bank. Jane, it's been way too long. Where 434 00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:20,080 Speaker 2: is the flight to quality now? Do people feared? Do 435 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:22,560 Speaker 2: they go to the US dollar? Do they go to 436 00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:25,439 Speaker 2: the Swiss franc Do they go to the Lebanese pound? 437 00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 6: You know what, that is a very good question, and 438 00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,160 Speaker 6: I think, of course the Swiss frank is up there 439 00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:35,800 Speaker 6: because after all, you know, on a textbook basis, the 440 00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:38,560 Speaker 6: Swiss frank is perhaps the only currency that really ticks 441 00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:41,280 Speaker 6: all of those boxes. But you know, this week, the 442 00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:44,400 Speaker 6: dollar is the best performing G ten currency and netfoth 443 00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,159 Speaker 6: it does seem that the dollar is picking up a 444 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:49,040 Speaker 6: little bit of a safe haven bid. Now that is 445 00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:52,200 Speaker 6: interesting because I think really since last April, the market's 446 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:55,000 Speaker 6: been debating whether or not the dollar has lost its 447 00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:58,880 Speaker 6: safe haven status or not. And this week's activity will 448 00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:01,639 Speaker 6: come down really on them of those suggesting, yeah, you 449 00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:02,960 Speaker 6: know what, it's still there. 450 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 3: For those of you on YouTube, it's a shrinking. It's 451 00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:08,560 Speaker 3: like Rick Baranas in the movie. Yeah, you know, they 452 00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:10,199 Speaker 3: shrinked down. Jane Foley shrinking down. 453 00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:13,240 Speaker 2: We're going to continue, too important a conversation to cut 454 00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:16,440 Speaker 2: her off, but Jane Foley with a shrinking video today, Pop. 455 00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:19,560 Speaker 5: Jane, where do you see value out there in the 456 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:21,000 Speaker 5: currency markets? 457 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:21,159 Speaker 3: Here? 458 00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:23,800 Speaker 5: If I'm a value investor, I'm looking at currencies, where 459 00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:24,399 Speaker 5: would you send me? 460 00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:28,680 Speaker 6: Well, you know, I think I'd probably send you with 461 00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:30,719 Speaker 6: the same sort of places i'd send you last year. 462 00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:32,479 Speaker 6: And if we look at some of the better performing 463 00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:35,720 Speaker 6: currencies for twenty twenty five, well, we had to Swiss 464 00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:38,160 Speaker 6: frank right up there, we had the Swedish Krona two. 465 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:41,520 Speaker 6: And you know, this is pretty interesting because it does 466 00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:44,280 Speaker 6: appear that, you know, the market may not really believe 467 00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:47,240 Speaker 6: in the basement. You know, there's no proof of the 468 00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:50,600 Speaker 6: US debasement. After all, you know, foreigners are holding record 469 00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:53,600 Speaker 6: amounts of US treasuries, but they're still a little bit worried, 470 00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:56,119 Speaker 6: you know, about these sorts of things, of fiscal issues, 471 00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 6: and they still want to diversify. And I think the 472 00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 6: market's therefore look at those fundamental criteria, the countries that 473 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:05,680 Speaker 6: have really good fiscal positions, good levels of debt, and 474 00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:09,160 Speaker 6: you know, the Swedish Kroner, the Swiss Franca up there. 475 00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:11,879 Speaker 6: But this year, you know, something new really has evolved, 476 00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:15,760 Speaker 6: and that is countries G ten countries which are looking 477 00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:19,320 Speaker 6: to potentially fike interest rates. And this is a change 478 00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:22,439 Speaker 6: because right now the market's only really sort of confident 479 00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:24,760 Speaker 6: of the Bank of England and the Fed cutting interest 480 00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:27,600 Speaker 6: rates further this cycle. The Australians are already tightened and 481 00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:30,399 Speaker 6: there's a discussion now will norwaybe the next to Titan 482 00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:32,080 Speaker 6: That we had a bit of a pushback from the 483 00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:34,520 Speaker 6: Rby and Z the other day. But you know, they 484 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:36,919 Speaker 6: could be the they could be tightening before the end 485 00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:40,080 Speaker 6: of the year, and maybe even the Sweds, maybe even 486 00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:43,120 Speaker 6: the ECB. So for the vast majority of the ECB, 487 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:47,399 Speaker 6: we're talking about this transition now potentially into a hiking cycle, 488 00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:50,680 Speaker 6: and that of course has created a few more interesting 489 00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:52,080 Speaker 6: ways on the foreign exchange market. 490 00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,840 Speaker 2: What's the bet now on week dollar? Paul and I 491 00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:59,040 Speaker 2: keep talking about the week dollar week dollar week dollar. 492 00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:02,679 Speaker 2: It's sort of kind of like not happening. How sizeable 493 00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:07,840 Speaker 2: is the bet of euro one twenty or yen forty nine. 494 00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:10,560 Speaker 6: Well, in terms of you were a dollar, you know, 495 00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,600 Speaker 6: one to twenty is still right there in the market consensus, really, 496 00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:16,320 Speaker 6: you know, not too far a quarter or two at least. 497 00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:20,040 Speaker 6: I haven't got one twenty anymore in the forecast table. 498 00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:22,040 Speaker 6: I took that out before the end of last year, 499 00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:25,760 Speaker 6: because if we look at the dollar really and its performance, 500 00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:29,120 Speaker 6: say against the euro, since the start of eight two 501 00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:32,040 Speaker 6: last year's it's the very start of July. Ue dollar's 502 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:34,159 Speaker 6: sort of gone nowhere. Yeah, it's chopped around a bit. 503 00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:35,600 Speaker 6: Certainly at the start of this year there was a 504 00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:38,320 Speaker 6: lot of volatility, but we're right back at the levels 505 00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:39,840 Speaker 6: we were at the start of the year, and we're 506 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:41,720 Speaker 6: pretty close to the levels we were at the start 507 00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:45,840 Speaker 6: of July. The dollar has held its ground after that 508 00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:49,600 Speaker 6: huge tumble it suffered at the start of the year. 509 00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:53,200 Speaker 6: But that tumble really does continue to really shadow, really 510 00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:55,920 Speaker 6: influence the way people think about the dollar. They're still 511 00:24:56,040 --> 00:25:00,240 Speaker 6: worried that we could potentially see further structural weakness, But 512 00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:03,080 Speaker 6: I'm just not convinced. There are still lots of pretty 513 00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:04,959 Speaker 6: good fundamentals in the US. You know, you look at 514 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:08,480 Speaker 6: the growth data, for instance, productivity data that continues to 515 00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:10,960 Speaker 6: act perform, and that I think was the basis of 516 00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:14,040 Speaker 6: that buy America trade that dominated for so many years 517 00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,280 Speaker 6: after the global financial crisis, all the way up to 518 00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:18,359 Speaker 6: the start of last year. So I think we're going 519 00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:22,400 Speaker 6: to chop around in ranges. I think the en probably 520 00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:24,520 Speaker 6: can do better, but I think we do need to 521 00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:28,840 Speaker 6: see the Bank of Japan probably accelerating its rate hiking cycle, 522 00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:30,879 Speaker 6: and I think we hear more of that as we 523 00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:32,640 Speaker 6: move into the spring and get beyond the spring. 524 00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:36,680 Speaker 5: Wage talks about thirty seconds left Jane real quickly the yen, 525 00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:38,800 Speaker 5: it's got a lot of people kind of confused where 526 00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:39,359 Speaker 5: the direction is. 527 00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:40,280 Speaker 3: Where do you think the end goes? 528 00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:44,400 Speaker 6: You know, I think Japan is so exciting, so many 529 00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:46,320 Speaker 6: structure reforms, lea, there's so much effort to try and 530 00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,760 Speaker 6: get people away from cash into the stock market, into assets. 531 00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:52,120 Speaker 6: Foreigner is on a very small amount of that JGB market. 532 00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:53,399 Speaker 6: I don't think we should be as worried as the 533 00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:56,320 Speaker 6: market was. I do think that, you know, in a 534 00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:58,560 Speaker 6: year or two times, we're going to be looking back 535 00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:00,560 Speaker 6: and think, wow, you know the en we're pretty cheap 536 00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:00,920 Speaker 6: back then. 537 00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:04,080 Speaker 2: Jane, thank you so much for the brief. Jane Foley 538 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:07,600 Speaker 2: with a wonderful Dutch bank Robobank out of London. 539 00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:13,600 Speaker 8: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 540 00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:24,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live 541 00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:27,760 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 542 00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:31,200 Speaker 1: Apple Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, 543 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:33,160 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 544 00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:37,280 Speaker 2: Joining us now Dinas Fandier, who is with Bloomberg and 545 00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:41,160 Speaker 2: Guni Economics, and she has had the privilege of studying 546 00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:41,960 Speaker 2: with Lawrence Freeman. 547 00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:43,200 Speaker 3: What was it like, Dini? 548 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:46,320 Speaker 2: You wander in the door at King's College, and it's 549 00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,520 Speaker 2: literally like you're talking to the Adam Smith of Worse studies. 550 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:55,800 Speaker 7: First, thanks for having me. You know, you don't know 551 00:26:55,920 --> 00:27:00,640 Speaker 7: better than to just be excited and appreciate that you're 552 00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:03,960 Speaker 7: studying with some pretty great people, and then really appreciate 553 00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:06,240 Speaker 7: the mentorship that they give you, which is what I 554 00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:07,960 Speaker 7: call this war that we're in. 555 00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:10,040 Speaker 2: It's on the cover of the New York Times. There's 556 00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:13,440 Speaker 2: maps that you look at them and all that, Dana, 557 00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:17,240 Speaker 2: have you ever seen? I mean, this is not like Kuwait, 558 00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:22,200 Speaker 2: It's not like Iraq. There's something different about this Iran affair. 559 00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:24,360 Speaker 2: Of the President discuss. 560 00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:30,080 Speaker 7: So much to say so little time. I mean, you know, 561 00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:34,200 Speaker 7: I think the I think the Iran issue has historically 562 00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:39,240 Speaker 7: been a real unifying issue in the United States, which 563 00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:43,399 Speaker 7: is odd given that the US political leads are pretty 564 00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:46,840 Speaker 7: much split on absolutely everything. Iran tends to unify them. 565 00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:51,800 Speaker 7: Although I think Trump's desire or at least build up 566 00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:57,040 Speaker 7: and steps towards war is beginning to kind of chip 567 00:27:57,080 --> 00:28:00,879 Speaker 7: away at that unified elite. So I think there's that 568 00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:02,680 Speaker 7: element of it, And then I think there's the element 569 00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:04,639 Speaker 7: of the build up. Right, the build up is the 570 00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:06,480 Speaker 7: military build up. The US military build up in the 571 00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:11,760 Speaker 7: region is really consequential, It's really significant. It's unlike anything 572 00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,280 Speaker 7: that we've seen in the past before. Is it really 573 00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:16,920 Speaker 7: intended to go to war or is it intended to 574 00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:20,200 Speaker 7: scare the Iranians to the negotiating table. I think there's 575 00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:22,879 Speaker 7: an element of both. But the risk, of course, is 576 00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:26,320 Speaker 7: that the build up is so significant that unless Trump 577 00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:29,200 Speaker 7: gets everything he wants out of an agreement with the Iranians, 578 00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:32,280 Speaker 7: he's going to have to use it to justify that 579 00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:32,800 Speaker 7: build up. 580 00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:35,480 Speaker 5: Dina. I think, as you mentioned, the build up of 581 00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:39,560 Speaker 5: military capabilities in that part of the world's substantial. Do 582 00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:43,280 Speaker 5: we know what the US strategy is? What does the 583 00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:47,080 Speaker 5: US want here from Iranda? That seems to be unclear 584 00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:47,760 Speaker 5: for a lot of folks. 585 00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:51,520 Speaker 7: I mean, that is the million dollar question. What are 586 00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:54,800 Speaker 7: the objectives of what the United States is doing right now? 587 00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:58,120 Speaker 7: It started out, as you know, we had to find 588 00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:01,080 Speaker 7: a way to contain or roll back around nuclear program. 589 00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:04,440 Speaker 7: Then for some people in the United States, it became 590 00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:08,600 Speaker 7: about regime change, then it returned back to the nuclear program. 591 00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:12,160 Speaker 7: It's really really unclear, and the reason for that is 592 00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:15,760 Speaker 7: I think the administration itself is unclear on what its 593 00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:20,640 Speaker 7: objectives are. I think there's an element of opportunism right now, okay, 594 00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:22,600 Speaker 7: but there's an opportunity, Dan. 595 00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:25,680 Speaker 2: How are the generals in the admirals like the pros 596 00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:29,120 Speaker 2: at this like you do? They feel left from where 597 00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:31,640 Speaker 2: you sit? Is this being run off the desk of 598 00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:34,680 Speaker 2: the president in the Oval office or is there actually 599 00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:39,680 Speaker 2: a discussion of normal planning of a conflict or a 600 00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:42,200 Speaker 2: war in the process of war studies. 601 00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:46,040 Speaker 7: I mean, I think it's impossible to go to war 602 00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:48,560 Speaker 7: without at least having a conversation with the generals. And 603 00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,520 Speaker 7: in fact, it's been reported that President Trump has been 604 00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:55,200 Speaker 7: briefed on the military options when it comes to Iran, 605 00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:59,880 Speaker 7: and part of that briefing in conversation is actually why 606 00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:02,960 Speaker 7: Trump didn't go to war with Iran in January when 607 00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:06,080 Speaker 7: the protests were happening and when he promised to send help, 608 00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:10,680 Speaker 7: because I think the briefing from the generals really frightened 609 00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:14,480 Speaker 7: him and pushed him to build his capabilities up first. 610 00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:16,680 Speaker 2: That's the smartest thing I've heard, Paul. I mean, I'm sorry, 611 00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:19,480 Speaker 2: but you know, forget about all of our parents riveted 612 00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:23,960 Speaker 2: and molded by Pearl Harbor. November of nineteen seventy nine. 613 00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:28,200 Speaker 2: Sure was a problem, the Exocet missile on the Falklands, 614 00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:29,440 Speaker 2: There was a problem. 615 00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,840 Speaker 3: Where's the problem here? Given what we see in those maps. 616 00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:38,920 Speaker 5: I don't know, Soded, what is the role that Israel 617 00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:42,800 Speaker 5: is playing in this situation? Other allies, perhaps other players 618 00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:45,200 Speaker 5: in the Middle East? Is it just the US and 619 00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:48,240 Speaker 5: Iran with this stare off here? What are the others doing? 620 00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:51,160 Speaker 7: I mean, I think the main players are definitely the 621 00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:55,280 Speaker 7: US in Iran, and the main decision maker on this 622 00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:57,880 Speaker 7: front right now really is President Trump. But I think 623 00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:01,320 Speaker 7: Israel is playing a huge role in trying to sway 624 00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:05,560 Speaker 7: Trump and trying to really convince him either to go 625 00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:08,200 Speaker 7: to war or to have a very maximalist position in 626 00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:13,520 Speaker 7: the nuclear negotiations. And bizarrely, compared to a few years 627 00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:16,440 Speaker 7: ago when the first nuclear deal was being negotiated, it's 628 00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:20,520 Speaker 7: the US's Gulf Erab partners that are actually urging restraint, 629 00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:22,880 Speaker 7: that are saying we don't want war because we don't 630 00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:25,200 Speaker 7: know what will happen once the fighting starts. 631 00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:27,960 Speaker 2: Well, Dina, that's right where we wanted to go. I mean, 632 00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:31,000 Speaker 2: you know, did you study the American Civil War? Dana 633 00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:31,960 Speaker 2: at King's College? 634 00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:37,080 Speaker 3: Or very little, very little, Okay. July eighteen sixty one, 635 00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:38,840 Speaker 3: first Battle of bull Run. 636 00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:42,360 Speaker 2: The socialites of Washington went out to watch the battle 637 00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:44,720 Speaker 2: because it was going to be a short little skirmish. 638 00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:50,600 Speaker 2: America after Iraq, America after Afghanistan is jaded about short 639 00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:54,360 Speaker 2: little skirmishes. Do you assume if something happens this weekend, whatever, 640 00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:57,560 Speaker 2: the president decides that this is some form of short 641 00:31:57,640 --> 00:32:00,680 Speaker 2: little skirmish, or do we end up they both run 642 00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:03,600 Speaker 2: like the American Civil War for five six years. 643 00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:06,920 Speaker 7: I think if you had asked me this question six 644 00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:09,600 Speaker 7: months ago, seven months ago, I would have said, I 645 00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:11,640 Speaker 7: think there's a chance we can keep it short because 646 00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:14,160 Speaker 7: the Iranians don't want to escalate further. They don't want 647 00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:16,240 Speaker 7: to fight a war they know they're going to lose. 648 00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:19,800 Speaker 7: I think today the issue is really existential for Iran, 649 00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:25,000 Speaker 7: so they have no incentive to not escalate. Their incentive 650 00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:27,880 Speaker 7: is the opposite, escalate through everything we have at the 651 00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:30,480 Speaker 7: problem and see what we can do, how to get 652 00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:33,960 Speaker 7: the US bogged down further in the region, impact oil 653 00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:38,280 Speaker 7: markets by shooting at oil and energy infrastructure in the region, 654 00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:41,840 Speaker 7: potentially closing the Straits of Marmous and once that happens, 655 00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:44,160 Speaker 7: it's absolutely impossible to keep this short. 656 00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:49,520 Speaker 5: So, Dina, I guess we step back and say, perhaps 657 00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:53,480 Speaker 5: a strategy for the US would be regime change, because 658 00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:58,160 Speaker 5: anything short of that seems inconsequential relative to the assets 659 00:32:58,160 --> 00:32:59,120 Speaker 5: that are being deploid there. 660 00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:03,800 Speaker 7: Well, for sure, that could be an option, but then 661 00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:06,440 Speaker 7: the problem is the assets that are deployed there are 662 00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:10,000 Speaker 7: not enough. It's going to be virtually impossible to change 663 00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:12,520 Speaker 7: the system from overhead. You're going to have to put 664 00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:14,680 Speaker 7: boots on the ground. And I don't think any American 665 00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:16,640 Speaker 7: president wants to put boots on the ground in Iran. 666 00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:18,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely so. 667 00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:22,120 Speaker 5: I mean, again, what's the next step you're looking for, Dina. 668 00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:27,480 Speaker 7: I'm looking for the beginning of that conflict. I think 669 00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:32,640 Speaker 7: sadly everybody has cornered themselves into that first air strike happening, 670 00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:36,760 Speaker 7: and then we'll be looking at how does Iran escalate? 671 00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:38,960 Speaker 7: Does it go all out immediately or does it do 672 00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:41,880 Speaker 7: it step by step. I think my sense is that 673 00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:45,960 Speaker 7: it will be a pretty rapid escalation, and then it 674 00:33:46,080 --> 00:33:48,120 Speaker 7: becomes really difficult to say what will happen next. 675 00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:50,360 Speaker 2: Data. Thank you so much for your work, Really really 676 00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:54,400 Speaker 2: appreciated this morning. Will be in touch with this all 677 00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:57,600 Speaker 2: week and Joe Matthew and Kayly Lynes leading your covers. 678 00:33:57,640 --> 00:34:01,200 Speaker 2: Look for that at twelve doon dta Esfandier Middle East 679 00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:04,000 Speaker 2: Tuna Economics lead for Bloomberg Econizers. 680 00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:09,040 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 681 00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:13,440 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 682 00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:17,000 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 683 00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:21,120 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 684 00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:24,520 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 685 00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:26,480 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal