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Speaker 1: Here's the latest.
Speaker 2: This morning, the President slamming NATO, telling the Telegraph he
Speaker 2: is strongly considering pulling the United States out of the
Speaker 2: Alliance as members refuse to join the war with Iran
Speaker 2: joining US. Now is Admiral Pierre van Die, the NATO
Speaker 2: commander for Transformation. Admiral, welcome to the program, sir. I'll
Speaker 2: share with you what the President said to the Telegraph.
Speaker 2: In their story this morning, they say the President was
Speaker 2: asked if he would consider reconsider the US's membersh ship
Speaker 2: of the Alliance after the conflict. He said, quote, oh yes,
Speaker 2: I would say it's beyond reconsideration. I was never swayed
Speaker 2: by NATO. I always knew they were a paper tiger,
Speaker 2: and Putin knows that too. By the way, Admiral, what's
Speaker 2: your reaction to that quote and what's the future of
Speaker 2: this alliance?
Speaker 3: So thank you for having me.
Speaker 4: It's the first time I'm on a US TV or life,
Speaker 4: so I'm very happy to be able to share some
Speaker 4: comments with you. So well clearly understand that we themity
Speaker 4: are not maneuvering on the political level. So I will
Speaker 4: not commend this debate, which is a strong one, which
Speaker 4: is about the transathletical inks and how the things go
Speaker 4: on the political side.
Speaker 3: I think what we have in.
Speaker 4: Front of us is a world where the crisis is
Speaker 4: not any more the good understanding of how the things
Speaker 4: are going. It's much more a question of shock. If
Speaker 4: I may an image, A crisis is when you're the
Speaker 4: ties of your car are flat.
Speaker 3: A shock is what you hit a tree.
Speaker 4: We are in a world where hitting trees now it's
Speaker 4: a new normal, and I think for an alliance it's
Speaker 4: a strong, strong challenge to be able to adapt at
Speaker 4: a very high speed to these shocks.
Speaker 2: Admiral, though this goes beyond just politics. This is about
Speaker 2: operational issues for the Alliance. When the UK only allows
Speaker 2: the US to use Basis for limited defensive action.
Speaker 1: When we see reports that Italy is.
Speaker 2: Denying and military aircraft permission to land in Sicily, and
Speaker 2: you have the US questioning whether they should even have
Speaker 2: bases in those places if they can't use them, the
Speaker 2: question still remains, what is the future of this alliance
Speaker 2: From an operational standpoint, what is the future of this alliance?
Speaker 4: I think the strength of the Alliance is to have
Speaker 4: having been able during more than seventy eighteen years to
Speaker 4: discuss and to find a way together. It's the consensus ace,
Speaker 4: which is not driven by majority but by consensus. And
Speaker 4: so that means that you have a unique place in
Speaker 4: the world where you have thirty two nations that discuss
Speaker 4: at political level on a daily basis. And so I
Speaker 4: know that since this war is going on in Ukraine,
Speaker 4: they are very intensive discussion at natal level. It's not
Speaker 4: only the nations themselves one by one with the US,
Speaker 4: it's it's all together in the in the NAC. It's
Speaker 4: a NATO non athnotic console where this discussion occur. And
Speaker 4: I think it's a strength for the West. It's something
Speaker 4: we need never to neglect is the fact that we
Speaker 4: are together. We are committed by bonds, and so we
Speaker 4: need to there always tensions that it's not the first time,
Speaker 4: but we need to to solve this as a united alliance.
Speaker 5: Can the alliance exist though without the support of the United.
Speaker 3: States, This is a great question.
Speaker 4: So mister Trump, during the LA he submits UH last
Speaker 4: summer he achieved to ask to the Allies to spend
Speaker 4: three point five percent of the GDP for their own defense.
Speaker 4: That comes by the fact that the US have other priorities.
Speaker 4: They are not only focused on Europe, and the crisis
Speaker 4: in a round is a good demonstration of what they said.
Speaker 3: So it's a moment for you Open to stand up
Speaker 3: and to.
Speaker 4: Do largely more than they have been habitted to they
Speaker 4: did before during the during the Postcord War decades, UH,
Speaker 4: the Opens have been somehow the free riders of their
Speaker 4: own security. Today there is a great change, and now
Speaker 4: we need to ramp up in all domains and to
Speaker 4: be able not to do without the US, but largely
Speaker 4: with a smaller force of the US given the other
Speaker 4: commitment these US forces up over the world.
Speaker 5: And what is it ability or will to potentially help
Speaker 5: the United States when it comes to reopening the straight
Speaker 5: or hormone A. We're struck by the UK Defense Secretary
Speaker 5: minister in an interview really struggling to answer basic questions
Speaker 5: even about how many frigates the US has the UK
Speaker 5: has presently at the moment.
Speaker 4: So there is we he inher it third years of
Speaker 4: these investments in all domains, in the industry, in the
Speaker 4: weapon stock, bise, in the in themitry, in the number
Speaker 4: of soldiers. So it's not by a flick of a
Speaker 4: switch that will we change that. That means a strong,
Speaker 4: long lasting commitment from the opens to be able to
Speaker 4: ramp up. So we inherit a very bad situation, and
Speaker 4: I think it's time out to wake up.
Speaker 6: Given the fact that there is a lot of questions
Speaker 6: right now about the US and the US's role with NATO.
Speaker 6: How likely is it that in five years NATO will
Speaker 6: still exist.
Speaker 3: It's a very political question.
Speaker 4: I think we don't kill we he inher it a
Speaker 4: system which is a good one. In fact, in other
Speaker 4: parts of the world, I think most of the alliance
Speaker 4: we discuss with, especially in the PACIFY, they are saying
Speaker 4: we should have something that looks like NET. So it
Speaker 4: is how it is, it's it's it's a big organization,
Speaker 4: but it's the one where we discuss on every day.
Speaker 4: You have a more than twelve thousand met read that
Speaker 4: on a daily basis. They work on plants, they work
Speaker 4: on intability, they work on training, they work on concepts.
Speaker 3: So this is a goal in the in Odiens.
Speaker 4: And so I think it's a moment where we need
Speaker 4: to have a cool hands and not saying okay, because
Speaker 4: there is a crisis, we will kill the baby. I
Speaker 4: think it's a moment we have an heritage, we have
Speaker 4: something that works. I think it's a moment where all
Speaker 4: the stakeholders need to be responsible.
Speaker 3: They need to they need to say okay what we
Speaker 3: hearer it?
Speaker 4: And with this, this this alliance, I think there is
Speaker 4: a lot to do still uh and killing it will
Speaker 4: not make the world safer.
Speaker 6: There was some questions about the act that missiles were
Speaker 6: logged at Turkey from Oran and that this potentially could
Speaker 6: engage NATO more directly in the conflict.
Speaker 1: What's your response to that?
Speaker 4: So some measures have been taken by secure It's the
Speaker 4: US General Greenevic, which is in chid of that kind
Speaker 4: of answers uh, and so he has taken measures in
Speaker 4: order to be sure that the NATO AR Area of
Speaker 4: responsibility is well protected against the will of Iran.
Speaker 3: To spread the crisis outside of its borders.
Speaker 2: And well, before you go, can I get clarification on something.
Speaker 2: Can you confirm whether Iran did try to strike the
Speaker 2: Diego Gassia base in the Internet Ocean, because we're still
Speaker 2: trying to gauge what the range actually is. What do
Speaker 2: you know about that?
Speaker 4: So it looks like they have tried to send a
Speaker 4: three stage ballistic missile which is much more looking like
Speaker 4: a commercial rocket.
Speaker 3: I think it was.
Speaker 4: It was a messaging and they are trying to demonstrate
Speaker 4: their their ability to expand and to spill the crisis
Speaker 4: outside of the Middle East.
Speaker 3: It's their strategy.
Speaker 4: And so I think it's a moment where back to
Speaker 4: the Islands, it's a moment where I think we need
Speaker 4: to show that we are united, we are committed to
Speaker 4: defend one billion pre citizen over the world and not
Speaker 4: kill the baby at a.
Speaker 3: Moment of tension with which I fully understand.
Speaker 1: Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 2: Oil down this morning by about a half of one
Speaker 2: percent on per and crude oil falling. As the President
Speaker 2: stokes optimism the AROUND war is nearing an end and
Speaker 2: possibly withdrawing before reopening the stratiformers and a world of
Speaker 2: the Atlantic Council noting potential issues with the plan, writing
Speaker 2: this would be a terrible president for the US because
Speaker 2: around it's actually in an enhanced position of making more
Speaker 2: money than before and joins US now for more and
Speaker 2: welcome to the program. The last time we spoke, which
Speaker 2: I believe was about a week ago, you said, unless
Speaker 2: this sends in ten to fourteen days, the energy crisis
Speaker 2: are going to approach severe levels. The President is now
Speaker 2: saying it's going to take another two weeks potentially. And
Speaker 2: with that in mind, what kind of levels are we
Speaker 2: going to approach in the next two weeks.
Speaker 7: Well, if you look at what's happening already in France
Speaker 7: and other countries where they're having runs.
Speaker 8: On gasoline stations, I mean gasoline stations are.
Speaker 7: Running dry because they're putting in these price controls and
Speaker 7: that's making everyone rush to buy. We're really having severe
Speaker 7: issues in a lot of countries that we in the
Speaker 7: US are quite insulated from because we're not experiencing this. Yes,
Speaker 7: we are seeing much higher gasoline prices, but the fact
Speaker 7: that we're not seeing any shortages is really giving us
Speaker 7: this sense of isolation. I think from the most important
Speaker 7: impact of this conflict.
Speaker 6: Ellen, can the straight be reopened or can you see
Speaker 6: a supplies start to flow through there? If Iran continues
Speaker 6: to hold on to a control of this region, And
Speaker 6: I ask this at a time when Cutter is seeing
Speaker 6: oil tankers being bombed in Qatari land.
Speaker 7: This is a really severe problem because if the United
Speaker 7: States ends this conflict or declares an end to it
Speaker 7: while leaving Iran basically a de facto control over passage
Speaker 7: into and out of the Persian Gulf, then we've actually
Speaker 7: put Iran in a much better position than they were
Speaker 7: in before this started, because.
Speaker 8: Now beforehand, they weren't actually controlling it.
Speaker 7: It was just this threat that they might actually limit
Speaker 7: traffic or they might threaten the safety of ships passing through.
Speaker 7: Now they are threatening the safety of ships passing through,
Speaker 7: and it is effective because tankers are refusing to cross
Speaker 7: because of Intera's issues and because they don't want to
Speaker 7: get hit by a drone.
Speaker 8: And then if we leave Iran's.
Speaker 7: Basically in a position to say, well, how how much
Speaker 7: are you.
Speaker 8: Going to pay us to leave you alone?
Speaker 7: And that is that's a whole new role for this
Speaker 7: country and also puts them in the position to make
Speaker 7: more money.
Speaker 5: Well, when it comes to the money ellen in the past,
Speaker 5: anytime the United States offered waivers for Iranian oil, it
Speaker 5: was put into an escrow account, and there was it
Speaker 5: was dictated that it had to be used for humanitarian
Speaker 5: aid for the people of Iran. I didn't see any
Speaker 5: of that sort of language in the general license. So
Speaker 5: where is this money going that the regime is making
Speaker 5: right now off of selling their crude and the toll.
Speaker 8: Presumably it's going straight to Iran.
Speaker 7: It's not going in dollars because there's still restrictions on
Speaker 7: what kind of currency Iran can use.
Speaker 8: But at this point do they really.
Speaker 7: Care whether you know, Pakistan is paying them in yon
Speaker 7: or not.
Speaker 8: It's going straight to the government now.
Speaker 7: Because militarily we've hit certain sites, We've we've hit you know,
Speaker 7: factories where their.
Speaker 8: Making these these missiles and drones.
Speaker 7: They're not necessarily to produce more of it right away,
Speaker 7: but the fact that they that they have this money
Speaker 7: means that they will be able to get back to
Speaker 7: this in the future, or they can funnel it to
Speaker 7: their to their proxies.
Speaker 8: I mean, the Hoothies are still a wild card here that.
Speaker 7: Could completely change the situation in the Red Sea. And
Speaker 7: if they're doing that with Iranian funds, then have we
Speaker 7: really even put you know, anything in this situation in
Speaker 7: a better place? And I would argue that not necessarily.
Speaker 5: I was told once again by a source yesterday that
Speaker 5: the Saudis are basically paying off the Hoothies to not
Speaker 5: get involved.
Speaker 1: At what point does that stop?
Speaker 7: It stops when they have access to the Persian Gulf
Speaker 7: again once they can once they can ship out of
Speaker 7: the Persian Golf, and they don't have a need to
Speaker 7: continue to pay off the Hoothies at maybe such a
Speaker 7: such a high rate.
Speaker 6: Ellen just more broadly, what's Saudi Arabia's role in all
Speaker 6: of this. We've heard from the UA, or at least
Speaker 6: reporting from the Wall Street Journal that they're considering serious
Speaker 6: getting involved in some sort of effort to make the
Speaker 6: straight of war moves independent and a free flow for traffic.
Speaker 6: When does Saudi Arabia get more intensely involved.
Speaker 7: I think they get intensely involved as a member of
Speaker 7: the GCC.
Speaker 8: You know, this is a waterway that they depend on.
Speaker 7: Me. Remember, we've had major, major wars on a much
Speaker 7: larger scale fought simply, you know, for freedom of the seas.
Speaker 7: This was something that that Woodrow Wilson cited when he
Speaker 7: brought the United States into.
Speaker 8: World War One.
Speaker 7: So the idea that Saudi Arabia and the UAE and
Speaker 7: Cutter and Kuwait and Iraq want free passage or a
Speaker 7: freedom of the season and freedom for passage through the
Speaker 7: straight of for moves, that's a very basic right of nations.
Speaker 7: And so I do think that if there's a potential
Speaker 7: for them to make a difference in securing that that
Speaker 7: they will get involved as part of the greater GCC.
Speaker 2: Stay with us Multblemberg Savannah's coming up off to this,
Speaker 2: The first treading day of April could be a long
Speaker 2: treading day. The President addressing the nation later on this evening,
Speaker 2: I was.
Speaker 6: Thinking to myself, how many people were excited, thinking maybe
Speaker 6: this is an April Fools joke, and I don't have
Speaker 6: to stay up until ten or eleven PM to understand
Speaker 6: exactly what the mood for Q two is going to be.
Speaker 5: Well, source called me last night after that news became
Speaker 5: public and said it's going to be the Academy Awards
Speaker 5: of Verbal Intervention.
Speaker 2: What's come a little bit later on this evening, it's
Speaker 2: everyone walked straight this morning, Steve and Uthur federated right
Speaker 2: in the following We are treating this as another brick
Speaker 2: in the wall of worry as the US markets advanced
Speaker 2: toward towards our s and P five hundred target of
Speaker 2: seventy five hundred for twenty twenty six. Steve, John Zusnaphimos, Steve.
Speaker 1: Good morning, good morning.
Speaker 2: Why is this just another brick and a climbable wall
Speaker 2: of worry?
Speaker 9: Well, we have an expression at federating hermies.
Speaker 10: You know, if it can't happen, it won't and I
Speaker 10: think you know the alternative really can't happen, and you're
Speaker 10: seeing her, you stepping in here. We can't have twenty million, okay.
Speaker 9: Eleven million barrels a day. I guess if they can.
Speaker 10: Keep the Red Sea open of the world's oil supply,
Speaker 10: which is eleven percent unavailable, that just takes oil, you know, roughly,
Speaker 10: I think, as you guys know, it's about ten bucks
Speaker 10: a barrel. So you're looking at a number in the
Speaker 10: one fifties that would kill the global economy. So we
Speaker 10: have a fifteen percent probability that that's what happens. So
Speaker 10: that's why we're sort of suddenly cautioned here. We have
Speaker 10: not added to equities. We're keeping our forecast in place
Speaker 10: at the moment, but every week that goes by, you know,
Speaker 10: we get closer to the summer driving season. I think
Speaker 10: you know that the gasoline output, you know, they have
Speaker 10: to store it in advance. They can't produce enough to
Speaker 10: meet demand during the summer season. So yeah, crack spreads
Speaker 10: are closing in on twenty dollars on top of the
Speaker 10: oil price. You know, that gets you two levels That
Speaker 10: often results in a demand response. So a few more
Speaker 10: weeks of this, you know, we're going to have to
Speaker 10: take down our GDP forecast.
Speaker 1: Just tell you it's going to be a fewal weeks.
Speaker 9: I think that's why he's looking at those number of weeks.
Speaker 10: I think they're doing the math on this, so they
Speaker 10: really do have to figure out a way to get
Speaker 10: this over in a couple more weeks or people are
Speaker 10: going to start taking down their GDP forecasts. We you know,
Speaker 10: we entered into this with GDP ahead of consensus. We're
Speaker 10: at four percent for this year because of all the
Speaker 10: stuff that's going on with the one big beautiful bill
Speaker 10: and you know, the stuff people have talked about, and
Speaker 10: the underlying earnings pretty good.
Speaker 9: Investments are pretty good.
Speaker 10: So fortunately we're entering into this with strong number. So
Speaker 10: this doesn't yet put us into a recession scenario. It's
Speaker 10: more like lower growth than we're anticipating. I'm also looking
Speaker 10: very carefully now. We've got earning season coming up in
Speaker 10: another ten days or so, and you know it's going
Speaker 10: to be great. We know that coming into the thing.
Speaker 10: But the question is is this going to be like
Speaker 10: the weather. You know, everyone's going to be talking about
Speaker 10: the weather here, which is the Mid East, and guidance
Speaker 10: might be more conservative, and that's probably not good for
Speaker 10: the market either.
Speaker 1: So there are a lot of unknowns.
Speaker 6: There are no unknowns, so then they're unknown unknowns and
Speaker 6: it's just a really muddy moment and everyone's really frustrated.
Speaker 6: Which when analyst came in yesterday and said, it gives
Speaker 6: me a lot of time to take a step back
Speaker 6: and have big thoughts. So I'm curious for you to
Speaker 6: have big thoughts to understand how structurally the market has changed.
Speaker 6: Even if say this is a short conflict, there will
Speaker 6: be an inflationary read through, and if the economy is strong,
Speaker 6: even more so. And right now it seems like we're
Speaker 6: pushing up against the limits of both fiscal borrowing as
Speaker 6: well as just how much the FED can stimulate or
Speaker 6: monetary policy makers can really stimulate. On the other end,
Speaker 6: how much do rates at four and a half to
Speaker 6: five percent in the United States maturely change the outlook
Speaker 6: for US equities going forward if they're not going to
Speaker 6: come down all that much, and if it's the same
Speaker 6: around the world.
Speaker 10: Okay, so we tend Lisa, you know, we're trying to
Speaker 10: invest against a three here horizon. So we're looking out
Speaker 10: past this and saying what world are we going to be?
Speaker 10: And we should be back to a world that's growing
Speaker 10: reasonably well, all those drivers we've talked about, the AI revolution,
Speaker 10: et cetera, and a market that is significantly cheaper than
Speaker 10: it was three months ago. So on that view, we'll
Speaker 10: come through this. The question is in the meantime, how
Speaker 10: do you navigate your way there? And as I said,
Speaker 10: if this goes on longer, I'm more worried about the
Speaker 10: demand impact. You're more worried about the inflation impact. But
Speaker 10: I would say four and a half is another Magano
Speaker 10: line for the Trump administration. We saw that back in
Speaker 10: April of last year. We got close to it again
Speaker 10: just recently. We're not backed down quite a bit now.
Speaker 10: But yeah, I mean four and a half is not
Speaker 10: a good.
Speaker 6: Can you have both not necessarily downside surprise if you
Speaker 6: do have some sort of ends to this and companies
Speaker 6: can maneuver through it, and then also get the disinflationary
Speaker 6: pull through that a lot of people are expecting later
Speaker 6: this year. I mean, do you have to have one
Speaker 6: of the other, either a downturn and growth or stick
Speaker 6: your inflation and central banks are not going to be
Speaker 6: cutting rates that potentially could pressure valuations.
Speaker 10: Well, I don't think the inflation is going to be
Speaker 10: stickier if they really do get this done in the
Speaker 10: next few weeks and get the straits reopened, right, because
Speaker 10: people are not going to factor in those higher prices forever,
Speaker 10: which is what you need to be stickier. So I'm
Speaker 10: still not on the sticky inflat. I'm more worried about
Speaker 10: the summer driving season, the demand impact. They're going to
Speaker 10: figure out a way, whether it's Trump declaring victory, but
Speaker 10: the Iranians, what are they going to do? The only
Speaker 10: thing they've got left is the straight of forem moves.
Speaker 5: So the markets, though, can you declare victory and still
Speaker 5: have the Iranians in control of the strait of removes
Speaker 5: and not have normal traffic?
Speaker 10: I think that's going to be very difficult, right, That's
Speaker 10: going to be the issue. So it's a two way negotiation.
Speaker 10: The you know, the market right now is like a
Speaker 10: multi dimensional chess board with some very smart players in it.
Speaker 10: And so I think when I play that kind of chess,
Speaker 10: I've got a board at my home if anyone wants
Speaker 10: to try it. The thing that the thing that makes
Speaker 10: me most difficult for me when I was younger and
Speaker 10: used to pay my sons were younger and a little
Speaker 10: bit crazier, is an unorthodox player that you can't predict
Speaker 10: that's on the board.
Speaker 2: If I think dying is winning, you're dating with an
Speaker 2: unorthodox player, that's for sure.
Speaker 10: Yeah, And that's what makes this so difficult for everybody,
Speaker 10: because we've got an unorthodox player here who's playing for
Speaker 10: different things. You know, economics is not necessarily their their driver.
Speaker 1: Te pot steel question.
Speaker 2: By the way, the first pot was is the market
Speaker 2: is going to be okay with around controlling the stratiful
Speaker 2: mus And the second pot was with restricted energy For
Speaker 2: the first part the short term, I don't think the
Speaker 2: market will care who's in control of the stratophormus along
Speaker 2: as the energy is flowing. The most important part is
Speaker 2: whether the energy is flowing, and right now it's not flowing.
Speaker 2: There's just a hope that the President moves on Ironte's
Speaker 2: control in the near term maybe and then the energy
Speaker 2: starts flowing again, they'll charge people for it. I don't
Speaker 2: think in the near term the market is going to
Speaker 2: care about that. Over the longer term, that will have
Speaker 2: consequences for the kind of premium that will be put
Speaker 2: on crude coming through the stratiform mods, the risk around that.
Speaker 2: But in the near term, this market has been itching
Speaker 2: to move on.
Speaker 10: Now the longer term outlook for oil has gone higher
Speaker 10: regardless because of that.
Speaker 1: Job, which is why they said was trading at eight.
Speaker 10: And you know what we're looking at is a demand
Speaker 10: impact here of people saying I got to have a
Speaker 10: bigger reserve to avoid this, and longer term, this is
Speaker 10: probably really good for nuclear energy companies.
Speaker 1: That's the structural shift.
Speaker 2: Just one final question, tech multiples, real multiple contration through
Speaker 2: the last month or so, is that compression and opportunity
Speaker 2: or does that speak to the structural shift we're seeing
Speaker 2: and how we value this s equity market.
Speaker 10: Think, you know, as you know what before just the
Speaker 10: day before this started, we took down our target for
Speaker 10: the year and we took down the tech multiples because
Speaker 10: we saw the big megacaps going from big free cash
Speaker 10: flow generators to in the near term, not being big
Speaker 10: free cash flow generators.
Speaker 9: And we don't know how long that's going to go
Speaker 9: on for.
Speaker 10: So we've kind of switched our portfolios, fortunately towards hard
Speaker 10: asset companies, you know, more value intensive. And I think
Speaker 10: once you come out of this, you're still faced with
Speaker 10: that problem, the AI disruption on the software side of tech,
Speaker 10: and you know, the free cash flow decline. That's why
Speaker 10: companies that are growing free cash flow right now tend
Speaker 10: to be on the old economy side of the of
Speaker 10: the kind of like Chevron. I mean, they're scree cash
Speaker 10: flows ballooning Micron by the way, free cash flow and
Speaker 10: that stock you know, down significantly here down thirty percent,
Speaker 10: but their free cash flow is going to go up
Speaker 10: by eight times over the next couple of years.
Speaker 9: So I think that's where the market is going to
Speaker 9: end up going to.
Speaker 10: You know, the tech is okay, you're the price I
Speaker 10: think has already kind of corrected, but yeah, I'm not
Speaker 10: sure it can lead us out of this.
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