1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm term Keene 2 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: jay Leye. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:32,919 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg here 5 00:00:32,920 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 1: in New York. Joining against Gregg Boodle BMP parabying US 6 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:38,400 Speaker 1: head of Equity and Derivative Strategy and he joins US 7 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 1: now can monitor Greig pretty muted price action. I've got 8 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:43,559 Speaker 1: to say, with the exception of Chinese equities, which we'll 9 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:45,680 Speaker 1: talk about in just a moment, but what's your explanation 10 00:00:45,720 --> 00:00:48,519 Speaker 1: this morning as to why futures are up but just 11 00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:51,520 Speaker 1: a half of one percent? Yeah. I think the slightly 12 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 1: lackluster move from US equities this morning, up just under 13 00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 1: half a percent, is a reflection on how far we've 14 00:00:56,840 --> 00:01:00,240 Speaker 1: already traveled since the December lows against the backdrop that's 15 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 1: already seen some deterioration in terms of equity fundamentals and 16 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 1: some of the hard macro data. The move in China 17 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:10,720 Speaker 1: is stomach six pc on a CSI three D. It's 18 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:12,680 Speaker 1: pretty difficult in the morning like this morning to wake 19 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 1: up and untangle what is trade and what it's been 20 00:01:15,640 --> 00:01:19,280 Speaker 1: driven by other factors and specifically China specific factors. Can 21 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:21,399 Speaker 1: you unwrap that a little bit for us? Gregg? Yeah, 22 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:24,680 Speaker 1: I think really it's kind of this confluence of factors. 23 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 1: So we see a weaker dollar, a more dovish fed 24 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:30,959 Speaker 1: the market starting price in a resolution in terms of 25 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 1: the trade tensions, and then a more kind of credit friendly, 26 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:37,600 Speaker 1: growth friendly environment coming in China, the stimulus at the 27 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:39,640 Speaker 1: start of this year working its way through UM. I 28 00:01:39,680 --> 00:01:41,559 Speaker 1: think those things have all come together to make something 29 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:44,400 Speaker 1: of a perfect storm for China. And EM equity is 30 00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 1: relative to develop market equities. So E M over d 31 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 1: M is that of this morning story or a longer 32 00:01:50,440 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 1: term story? What's your base case, Greg? We think it's 33 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:54,720 Speaker 1: a slightly longer term story than that. Is something that 34 00:01:54,720 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 1: we've been talking about for a while. Is the right 35 00:01:57,200 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 1: trade to play a resolution of the trade or as 36 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:02,520 Speaker 1: I said, there's a kind of confluence of fact is 37 00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:05,640 Speaker 1: not just trade supporting the idea that em could outperform 38 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 1: developed markets. That's something that I think could run a 39 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 1: little longer. Although clearly that price action from China this 40 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 1: morning is very aggressive. How much is underpinned by dividend increase, 41 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 1: use of cash back to shareholders. I mean it's folded 42 00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 1: into Washington talk and Democratic socialists that's say by backs 43 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:25,240 Speaker 1: are evil. I get all that, but just from a 44 00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:28,959 Speaker 1: cf A standpoint, if it's a vector that's up not 45 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:32,360 Speaker 1: like it was in January hindsight, how much of that 46 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:35,600 Speaker 1: is underpinned by use of cash? Yeah. I think cash 47 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:37,960 Speaker 1: and balance sheet is something that is going to really 48 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:41,240 Speaker 1: support some parts of the US equity market. I think 49 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:44,480 Speaker 1: that the buy back story, whether it's returns through dividends 50 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:47,320 Speaker 1: or buy backs, the rooster return in some ways doesn't matter. 51 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:50,000 Speaker 1: I think if you've got a very robust balance sheet, 52 00:02:50,040 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 1: net cash on the balance sheet, then that's something that's 53 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,080 Speaker 1: kind of going to give you a more defensive profile 54 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 1: if we see a growth slow down and returning some 55 00:02:57,200 --> 00:02:59,360 Speaker 1: of that cash is going to support your Earningspress, I 56 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 1: know you're not great. We're going to talk about individual companies, 57 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 1: but are reported from Omaha. Katherine Saglinsky just mentioned the 58 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:09,640 Speaker 1: pile of cash. Mr Buffet has there's a lot of 59 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:12,840 Speaker 1: other piles of cash out there. What's the I mean 60 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 1: a lot of people I mentioned Mario Gabelly John tweeting 61 00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:18,280 Speaker 1: out a newmant bureau. I mean a guy like a bell, 62 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:20,840 Speaker 1: He's like, why are you sitting in the cash? Do something? 63 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:24,520 Speaker 1: Is that urgency there? I don't know if the urgency 64 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:26,480 Speaker 1: is there. And some of the volatility that we've seen 65 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 1: in equity markets over the last three to six months 66 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:31,520 Speaker 1: is maybe going to inject a little bit more of 67 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 1: a noting caution rather than when we have a kind 68 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 1: of more benign environment. But I think certainly, if we 69 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 1: do see the growth environment slowing but not slowing too rapidly, 70 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 1: UM corporates may look to try and offset some of 71 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 1: that kind of organic slowdown by putting some of that 72 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 1: cash to work. Well, there's one company that is selling, 73 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 1: and it's General Electric, and the story drops across the 74 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:53,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg that General Electric has agreed to sell it's buy 75 00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 1: a farmer business to Dana her for a total consideration 76 00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 1: including twenty one billion dollars in cash, as well as 77 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:02,640 Speaker 1: Danna has assumption of certain pension liabilities. That just dropped 78 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 1: across the Bloomberg. General Electric up more than six percent. 79 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 1: But is there almost an inside transit actually, I mean 80 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:13,440 Speaker 1: Mr copp Is, I mean I'm going to be honest 81 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 1: and totally not surprised by this. So here's the headline 82 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 1: that comes with it, expects to use proceeds to cut 83 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:21,719 Speaker 1: leverage and strength and balance sheet. Now this is a 84 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:23,840 Speaker 1: very g specific story, but let me get to the 85 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:26,080 Speaker 1: broadest story that I think you can speak to. Greg. 86 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 1: It's the belief that beyond ge there's a lot of 87 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:32,719 Speaker 1: companies not in a similar position, but telling the same 88 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:35,719 Speaker 1: kind of story that this is the year that we're 89 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 1: going to cut back on debt right size the balance sheet. 90 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 1: It's the year of the debt diet. In the words 91 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:42,279 Speaker 1: of some guests that I've spoken to, do you believe 92 00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:45,359 Speaker 1: it is? I think there's gonna be differentiation between those 93 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:48,040 Speaker 1: who do have leverage on the balance sheet see um, 94 00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 1: you know the end of the cycle inside, see growth slowing, 95 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:53,080 Speaker 1: and want to take measures to repair their balance sheet. 96 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:55,359 Speaker 1: But there are other corporates out there who have big 97 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:57,920 Speaker 1: piles of cash, who have anything we'll be looking to 98 00:04:57,960 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 1: put that cash to work. So one of the things 99 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,719 Speaker 1: we've been talking about is looking at the differentiation between 100 00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:05,680 Speaker 1: those who can do things like sustained buy backs, maybe 101 00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 1: even accelerate returns to shareholders and those who are going 102 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:10,480 Speaker 1: to have to cut back. How many companies are in 103 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 1: that position, because the thing I worry about sitting here 104 00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:15,320 Speaker 1: is central banks shifting towards an easing bias. But I 105 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:17,600 Speaker 1: just wonder how much corporates have already leveraged over the 106 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:20,000 Speaker 1: last couple of years, what difference it will make to 107 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 1: adjust the supply and price of credit, and whether that 108 00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:26,479 Speaker 1: will be enough to stimulate demand. Yeah. I mean, we 109 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:28,680 Speaker 1: have had this more dovish tone from the FED, but 110 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:30,880 Speaker 1: we've been in an environment really for the past ten 111 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 1: years where there's been an awful lot of support coming 112 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:36,360 Speaker 1: from central banks. So I think clearly this has been 113 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:38,920 Speaker 1: one of the drivers that's taken the SMP back up 114 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:42,400 Speaker 1: from on Christmas eve UM. So I think the ability 115 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 1: for there to be more liquidity driven rally, for a 116 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:49,200 Speaker 1: more dovish FED to incrementally drive upside from here is 117 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:51,600 Speaker 1: much more challenging. I think perhaps one of the biggest 118 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 1: risks for nineteen is policy impotence. It's just the very 119 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:57,640 Speaker 1: idea that these central banks try and do more, but 120 00:05:57,720 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 1: the effective of it, effectiveness of it is enough, And 121 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:02,719 Speaker 1: I just wonder whether the one right now we're experiencing 122 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:06,200 Speaker 1: that to some degree in China. Great because the Chinese 123 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:08,880 Speaker 1: are doing a lot. It's supporting markets. I haven't seen 124 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 1: it materially support the economy just yet. Yes, I think 125 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 1: that's a very important point. You can get some knee 126 00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:18,320 Speaker 1: jerk reaction in terms of equities outperforming when you get stimulus, 127 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:20,400 Speaker 1: but really for that to drive for sustained rally, what 128 00:06:20,440 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 1: you need to see is the stimulus find its way 129 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:25,720 Speaker 1: into the hard data. If you see the macro data improving, 130 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:28,039 Speaker 1: that's likely to drive the market higher. Greg, thank you 131 00:06:28,120 --> 00:06:45,360 Speaker 1: so much. Thank you. We speak to the vice president 132 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:49,040 Speaker 1: of odd for Bloomberg Intelligence, Carol Board darkens the door. 133 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:50,920 Speaker 1: I'm going to cut to the chase, away from all 134 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:54,920 Speaker 1: the mambo jumbo. How can this be an arms length transaction? 135 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:59,240 Speaker 1: Mr Copple bleeds Danner her Blue. He's working for g 136 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:02,240 Speaker 1: I know the Boards signed off on it and all that. 137 00:07:02,320 --> 00:07:05,719 Speaker 1: You've gotta be kidding me. Uh you know, about a 138 00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:09,200 Speaker 1: year ago Danner wanted to buy it and uh Ge 139 00:07:09,240 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 1: rebuffed them. Uh he got I mean, let's be fair, 140 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:14,440 Speaker 1: he got twenty one billion dollars and he needs cat. 141 00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 1: It's actually a little lesson. I thought I had billion um. 142 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:22,680 Speaker 1: The peer group, which is dan her Thermo Fisher um 143 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 1: in the life science business or eighteen nineteen right now. So, um, 144 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:29,880 Speaker 1: the deal you know was good for Danna her as 145 00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 1: well as good for G. G has to balance, I 146 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:33,760 Speaker 1: mean G has to balance. I need money and I 147 00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:36,200 Speaker 1: need it fast. And the positive in this is that 148 00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 1: they've been getting two billion, three billion from selling tod 149 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 1: J and J come in here or you know, name 150 00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:45,440 Speaker 1: six other companies you know better than me. I'm not 151 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:47,480 Speaker 1: sure if there was a bid. I know that Danner 152 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:50,000 Speaker 1: was interesting, you know, was just gonna be questioned in 153 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 1: the next week. I I think people are so happy 154 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 1: that they're getting that much money, and that will so 155 00:07:56,840 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 1: all my radars up. I mean no, I might see 156 00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:02,800 Speaker 1: your I see your point because it's it's they got that. 157 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:07,440 Speaker 1: They got it below peer multiples. Uh, it's a growth business. 158 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:11,080 Speaker 1: Margins are are very good. Um, and but is in 159 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:13,720 Speaker 1: a box. They have to balance. I need the money. 160 00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:18,920 Speaker 1: What did dinner or two? Did it go down ten answers? No, no, no, 161 00:08:19,280 --> 00:08:22,640 Speaker 1: because if they paid fifteen times for it. Now, what's interesting, Karen, 162 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:23,840 Speaker 1: is not just a move in the stop, but the 163 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:26,760 Speaker 1: moving the debt as well. It's up three cents on 164 00:08:26,800 --> 00:08:31,560 Speaker 1: the dollar. Erupt to fifty on the G perpetual. It's 165 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:34,000 Speaker 1: a triple B credit and they're using the money to 166 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 1: right size the balance sheet. How important is that? That's 167 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:41,200 Speaker 1: extremely important because there was fear of a downgrade. Uh, 168 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:45,000 Speaker 1: they need to get the debt down as quickly as possible. 169 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:47,600 Speaker 1: There wasn't a lot of large chunks left that they 170 00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 1: could sell um and you know, oil service is the 171 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:54,280 Speaker 1: only one they have left that's a reasonable, reasonable size chunk. 172 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:57,199 Speaker 1: So this does solve the you know, big chunk of 173 00:08:57,200 --> 00:08:59,760 Speaker 1: the debt problem. It doesn't solve it completely, and I 174 00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:02,200 Speaker 1: think will ease the fears about another downgrade. Yeah, so 175 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 1: we tried it ninety two cents on the dollar, and 176 00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 1: there's been this big fit about another down Right. Do 177 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 1: you think this is sufficient or do they need to 178 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:11,160 Speaker 1: do more? Do they need to raise more capital? You know, 179 00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:13,480 Speaker 1: you know they've got to continue to raise capital. But 180 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:16,760 Speaker 1: I think the emergency, I would say the emergency might 181 00:09:16,800 --> 00:09:18,240 Speaker 1: be over in the in the near town. So you 182 00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:21,600 Speaker 1: sound by a farmer, You keep healthcare, The healthcare IPI 183 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 1: is not going to happen. What's next? What's the next 184 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:26,760 Speaker 1: unit that you'll lay the focused on. I think healthcare 185 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:29,080 Speaker 1: will happen, but it won't happen right away, and he 186 00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:32,480 Speaker 1: needs the cash flow. UM, this doesn't you know, I 187 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 1: don't think it aborts the UM option to sell healthcare, 188 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:38,280 Speaker 1: but he needs a cash flow. So right now he 189 00:09:38,720 --> 00:09:41,199 Speaker 1: can stop the bleeding with this sale, get the cash 190 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:43,760 Speaker 1: from healthcare to do other things, and eventually I think 191 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 1: you'll get Are there other suitors that could step in 192 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:49,120 Speaker 1: here in the next forty hours and say, wait a minute, 193 00:09:50,040 --> 00:09:54,600 Speaker 1: that I think that's a possibility. Okay, I mean we're 194 00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:57,040 Speaker 1: so far from the ge of schenected in New York. 195 00:09:57,160 --> 00:10:00,560 Speaker 1: You've mentioned before Karen Aviation and might right, that's the 196 00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:03,679 Speaker 1: crown jewel. Now, yes, that's you know, you know, they 197 00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 1: get rid of Healthier, they get rid of oil service, 198 00:10:06,400 --> 00:10:11,480 Speaker 1: it's it's it's power, it's renewables, and it's a crown jewel. Yeah, 199 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 1: it's gonna say. I mean, basically, it's an airline engine company. 200 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:16,960 Speaker 1: It's running a power business. Because they can't figure out 201 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:19,079 Speaker 1: how to get rid of it that they're going to 202 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 1: have to just shrink power as much as they can. 203 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 1: That's not an option to sell. Now, I don't you 204 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:25,559 Speaker 1: don't do bi hold sell what's the stock etch with 205 00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:28,199 Speaker 1: the stock up a zillion percent, were up over twelve. 206 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:31,679 Speaker 1: We're just below twelve twelve. I mean, I don't need 207 00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:35,000 Speaker 1: a target from me. I know that's impolite, but I mean, 208 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:37,320 Speaker 1: does this say everything have legs to forty or is 209 00:10:37,320 --> 00:10:41,280 Speaker 1: it plus or minus five points? It's got a lot 210 00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:44,959 Speaker 1: more work to do, uh to run to anywhere where 211 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 1: near that. I mean, they've still got a big promise. 212 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:53,480 Speaker 1: I just have a glass. I don't want a price forecast. 213 00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:55,720 Speaker 1: But you know, the stock was what six or seven? 214 00:10:56,520 --> 00:11:00,680 Speaker 1: It's it's done, you know, up to America. It's what 215 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 1: Deutsche Bank is to Europe. And the question that comes 216 00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:05,360 Speaker 1: up with Deutsche Bank again and again and again is 217 00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:07,559 Speaker 1: whether you can cut your way to growth. And it's 218 00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 1: a question that's asked about g E as well. Radically 219 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:13,440 Speaker 1: different company, of course, but the same situation. Can you 220 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:15,760 Speaker 1: cut your way to growth? I think they're trying to 221 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:19,760 Speaker 1: cut their way to stability and um and when once 222 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 1: they can stabilize power and there's some signs in order 223 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:25,679 Speaker 1: that that's happening, they can stop the bleeding there they've 224 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:28,240 Speaker 1: got a growth engine. Well I'm not playing on words, 225 00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:31,280 Speaker 1: but it's it's it's aviation and frankly healthcare is nine 226 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 1: operating margins and will be more like fifteen sixty without this. 227 00:11:34,559 --> 00:11:37,960 Speaker 1: Are they benefited by the death of the airbus? Uh three? 228 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:40,920 Speaker 1: I mean the day move a lot more engines on 229 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:45,320 Speaker 1: smaller planes. No, g E and Pratt and Whitney are 230 00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 1: the big engine guys. So yeah, so um, you know 231 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 1: that plane goes, but there's others that there's a million 232 00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:55,880 Speaker 1: with a lot going to hear and thank you so 233 00:11:56,000 --> 00:12:00,839 Speaker 1: much wandering on the energy, and you know, I would say, 234 00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:16,520 Speaker 1: next forty eight hours, we'll see. We went through the 235 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:19,319 Speaker 1: surveillance data bank and try to find one of our 236 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:23,400 Speaker 1: guests that actually listen to all the speeches, and Julia 237 00:12:23,440 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 1: Cornado joins usspect policy perspectives. What do these speeches mean, Julie? 238 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:32,560 Speaker 1: To a grizzled PhD pro like you, do you actually 239 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:34,480 Speaker 1: listen to these speeches? Did you just look at the 240 00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:39,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg headlines? You just ignore them? Well, actually a number 241 00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:42,319 Speaker 1: of the speakers were speaking at an event in New York, 242 00:12:42,400 --> 00:12:44,439 Speaker 1: so I was able to attend to that event and 243 00:12:44,640 --> 00:12:47,760 Speaker 1: see the full glory of the said speakers in person. 244 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:51,840 Speaker 1: So um, it was as you that was why we 245 00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:56,000 Speaker 1: got such a day. Lose the annual conference, the Booth conference, 246 00:12:56,040 --> 00:12:59,200 Speaker 1: since you got in New York exactly, Yeah, Rob and 247 00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:03,040 Speaker 1: Roger enjoining a tomorrow on Bloomberg Surveillance ex Chicago. Next 248 00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 1: RBI in India with an important new book as well. 249 00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:08,520 Speaker 1: Give us a FED update. It's you know, we're marching 250 00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:11,720 Speaker 1: to March and then there's a March meeting. You know, 251 00:13:11,760 --> 00:13:14,120 Speaker 1: I know there's a press conference and all that, but 252 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 1: is it a dead meeting? Is FED speak goes effectively? 253 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:22,320 Speaker 1: The March meeting is dead in policy terms because the 254 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:24,560 Speaker 1: FED has hit the pouse button. So we know that 255 00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:26,680 Speaker 1: they're pretty much on hold for the first half of 256 00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:29,400 Speaker 1: the year as they sort of gather the data and 257 00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:32,760 Speaker 1: take the temperature on the economy. Most of the speakers 258 00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:36,560 Speaker 1: that we heard from are looking forward to this evaluation 259 00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 1: of their policy tool kit and whether they should tweak 260 00:13:40,559 --> 00:13:44,800 Speaker 1: their inflation targeting approach, and that's the hot topic of 261 00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:47,319 Speaker 1: the day. I look Julia at the dot plot, which 262 00:13:47,360 --> 00:13:49,559 Speaker 1: I haven't looked at phone since Michael McKee stopped the 263 00:13:49,559 --> 00:13:53,360 Speaker 1: press conference last time around, and not only is the 264 00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:58,160 Speaker 1: market call distant from the FED call, but the market 265 00:13:58,160 --> 00:14:02,800 Speaker 1: cause of vector going to lower rates out for years. 266 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:07,200 Speaker 1: To me, the slope of the market call has radically changed. 267 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:10,600 Speaker 1: Am I right on that? Um? Yes, you are right, 268 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:12,560 Speaker 1: and I think that what we will see at the 269 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:16,480 Speaker 1: March meeting is another flattening of the dot plot, and 270 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:19,480 Speaker 1: with the FED moving closer to the market, rather than 271 00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:22,840 Speaker 1: the market moving closer to the Fed, but the Fed. 272 00:14:23,160 --> 00:14:26,040 Speaker 1: This is where there's a key difference between the market 273 00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:28,880 Speaker 1: and the dot plot, and that is that the dot 274 00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:32,320 Speaker 1: plot is the FED official communication. The Feed is never 275 00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 1: going to say we're projecting failure, we're predicting a recession. 276 00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:39,920 Speaker 1: The market can make dot call um and effectively some 277 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:42,560 Speaker 1: people in the market believe. And in fact, the National 278 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:46,120 Speaker 1: Association of Business Economist survey just showed that the modal 279 00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 1: expectation is for a recession in h So that's what 280 00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:53,840 Speaker 1: the market is, at least many in the market are thinking. 281 00:14:53,880 --> 00:14:55,600 Speaker 1: And that's why we have a bit of a rate 282 00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:59,480 Speaker 1: cut price in whether it's twenty one, they're always pushing 283 00:14:59,480 --> 00:15:02,120 Speaker 1: out this. There is always a recession called somewhere in 284 00:15:02,120 --> 00:15:04,320 Speaker 1: the mixed. Julia, what you mentioned earlier, I think it's 285 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:08,680 Speaker 1: really interesting the prospect of a higher inflation target. Muhammad 286 00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:11,400 Speaker 1: al Arian running for bloom Back Opinion Today, and he 287 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:13,680 Speaker 1: wrote the following, will the fect be able to meet 288 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:16,640 Speaker 1: a higher inflation target if it already struggles to make 289 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:20,160 Speaker 1: its current want on a consistent basis? What difference does 290 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:23,720 Speaker 1: it make? Julia Well, I think that is probably the 291 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 1: single biggest shortcoming of evaluating that approach, is they don't 292 00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:31,840 Speaker 1: even know whether it's feasible, uh to hit a higher 293 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:35,720 Speaker 1: inflation target or to even average at a slightly higher 294 00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 1: run rate of inflation over a longer horizon. We we 295 00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:43,600 Speaker 1: haven't been hitting the inflation target. Is that because inflation 296 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:46,400 Speaker 1: expectations have slipped lower and that's something that they can 297 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:52,560 Speaker 1: correct with their communication. Or are there inflationary processes, you know, deeper, 298 00:15:52,640 --> 00:15:56,960 Speaker 1: more structural processes that hold back inflation and would sort 299 00:15:57,000 --> 00:15:59,760 Speaker 1: of you know, put the sends credibility at risk if 300 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:01,920 Speaker 1: they if they've raised the target at a time when 301 00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:04,640 Speaker 1: inflation is structurally low. So that's one of the big 302 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 1: questions that they're going to be grappling with as they 303 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:09,280 Speaker 1: do this evaluation. What do you make of this evaluation 304 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:12,720 Speaker 1: playing out as publicly as it currently is. Well, I 305 00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:16,720 Speaker 1: think the idea in them doing that is to emphasize 306 00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 1: that they understand they are a public institution, even though 307 00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:25,920 Speaker 1: they do have independence. If they don't acknowledge and respond 308 00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:30,480 Speaker 1: to public demands, they will lose that independence. They understand 309 00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:33,680 Speaker 1: that more now than ever before. And so I think 310 00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:36,800 Speaker 1: that the idea of having these town halls and these 311 00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:39,960 Speaker 1: public conferences is to make sure that the public fully 312 00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:42,720 Speaker 1: buys into any changes that are made. And it's a 313 00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:44,480 Speaker 1: good thing. I mean, I think they're going to hear 314 00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:47,240 Speaker 1: a variety of perspectives like the one you just mentioned 315 00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 1: that they might not get as loudly as if they 316 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:55,359 Speaker 1: do it behind closed door until with a specro policy perspective. 317 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:11,000 Speaker 1: This is a joy. We have waited and waited and 318 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:14,520 Speaker 1: waited to get the two hundred and seventy two page 319 00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:18,680 Speaker 1: book of the year in business. This is an economics. 320 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:23,320 Speaker 1: It's not investment or finance. It's like the behavior of business. 321 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:26,240 Speaker 1: We are thrilled to bring in a gene case. Uh 322 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:29,000 Speaker 1: and her book be fearless. It has not only come 323 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:31,919 Speaker 1: out in a splash, but it's really come out to 324 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:35,400 Speaker 1: some immense acclaim as well. Just go out to Amazon 325 00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:37,879 Speaker 1: and look at the acclaim and Uh, it speaks for 326 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:41,399 Speaker 1: its self. We said that gene Case, you can't come 327 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:45,680 Speaker 1: on until Lady Gaga talks about you at the Academy Awards. 328 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:48,960 Speaker 1: Of course, that's what happened last night. Are you wearing 329 00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:54,760 Speaker 1: Alexander McQueen today, Jane, I'm trying. I'm trying to channel Gaga. No, 330 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:57,200 Speaker 1: there was Gaga and your husband Steve Case. Of course, 331 00:17:57,240 --> 00:18:00,400 Speaker 1: with modest internet, acclaim goes it's not about how many 332 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:03,720 Speaker 1: times you are knocked down. It's about how many times 333 00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:06,280 Speaker 1: you get up and keep going. This is Gaga last 334 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:09,399 Speaker 1: night wearing McQueen at the end of the show, Gene Case. 335 00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:13,200 Speaker 1: Forget about the advantages of Gene Case and Steve Case. 336 00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:16,080 Speaker 1: Give us one example of how you were knocked down 337 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:20,000 Speaker 1: years ago. Sure well, I tell the story in my 338 00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:23,479 Speaker 1: new book, Be Fearless. You know I was um We 339 00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:26,760 Speaker 1: We had a large initiative at the Case Foundation where 340 00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:29,720 Speaker 1: I run to bring clean water to sub Saharan Africa 341 00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:32,360 Speaker 1: in ten countries. And when I launched it, I had 342 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:35,879 Speaker 1: President Clinton to my right and First Lady Laura Bush 343 00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:38,840 Speaker 1: to my left. But as we started to execute the 344 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:42,159 Speaker 1: project on the ground in Africa, things weren't going so well. 345 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:44,760 Speaker 1: And it's a bit of a longer story, but after 346 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:47,520 Speaker 1: trying to course correct and make things right. We had 347 00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:50,359 Speaker 1: to acknowledge the failure, and I did so very publicly 348 00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:54,440 Speaker 1: by writing a blog the painful acknowledgement of coming up short. 349 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:56,879 Speaker 1: This is a very public failure I had, and I 350 00:18:56,960 --> 00:18:59,600 Speaker 1: like to tell that story because you know, entrepreneurs can 351 00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:02,320 Speaker 1: be a little more comfortable with failure. But in the 352 00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:05,000 Speaker 1: world more broadly, people are stopped in their tracks and 353 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:06,680 Speaker 1: they think it's over. And part of the reason I 354 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 1: wrote the book Be Fairly is, you know, to really 355 00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:12,119 Speaker 1: tell the stories of well known and less well known 356 00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:15,880 Speaker 1: success stories, better lines and failure along the way. What's 357 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:18,400 Speaker 1: so important here? And we have a surveillance dumpster wory 358 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:20,879 Speaker 1: throw in all the business books that don't have the 359 00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:26,679 Speaker 1: interior visceral energy. Be Fearless has you talk about being 360 00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:30,439 Speaker 1: normal and about avoiding normal. Let's start with that sweat 361 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:33,920 Speaker 1: condition right now. How do our listeners, how do our 362 00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:39,000 Speaker 1: listeners kids get away from normal? Sure? Well, of course 363 00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:41,520 Speaker 1: that's all a play on the words of the town 364 00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 1: I was born in, which was normal, Illinois, as the 365 00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:47,960 Speaker 1: youngest afoe being raised by a single mom, and no 366 00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:51,200 Speaker 1: I had vignettes, but this is mostly a storytelling book 367 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 1: about others. And the real message of it is that 368 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:58,920 Speaker 1: it's ordinary people who do extraordinary things. But to get 369 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:02,879 Speaker 1: too extraordinary, we have to get uncomfortable, get outside of normal. 370 00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:05,560 Speaker 1: You know. I like to say nothing great comes from 371 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:08,640 Speaker 1: the comfort zone. And we did some research about six 372 00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:12,159 Speaker 1: years ago really to study the core qualities of successful 373 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:15,400 Speaker 1: entrepreneurs and innovators. How many times do they feel? How 374 00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:19,080 Speaker 1: many times do they fail before they found success? Oh? 375 00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:21,480 Speaker 1: In some cases multiple times, you know. I like to 376 00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 1: talk about Oprah who was told she just wasn't right 377 00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:27,359 Speaker 1: for TV, and yet look at the media empire she 378 00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:31,880 Speaker 1: has created. Steve Jobs fired from the very company he founded, 379 00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:34,919 Speaker 1: which then enabled him to go back later and totally 380 00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:38,320 Speaker 1: transformed that company. So time and time again. You know, 381 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:41,560 Speaker 1: that chapter is called fail and the Footsteps of Giants. 382 00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 1: So it really is an important message that we have 383 00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,000 Speaker 1: to get a little uncomfortable, we have to be bold 384 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:49,520 Speaker 1: and take some risks, but that it's really available to 385 00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:52,600 Speaker 1: anyone to break well. So what we'll do. Gene cases 386 00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:55,800 Speaker 1: ringing my colleague Paul Sweeney, who saw Duke go down 387 00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:58,240 Speaker 1: in flames a week and a half ago and find 388 00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:01,639 Speaker 1: resurrection here over the week. Paul Gee, one of the 389 00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:04,160 Speaker 1: principles in your book. I found interesting was the concept 390 00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:06,320 Speaker 1: of making the big bet. And that's something that I 391 00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:09,560 Speaker 1: don't think is really is intuitive for you know, most people, 392 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:12,240 Speaker 1: the more conservative. Why it's important to think about making 393 00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:14,119 Speaker 1: a big bet. And you have an example of somebody 394 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 1: who's who's done it and done it well, sure, well, 395 00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:19,880 Speaker 1: you know what I say is make a big bet 396 00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:22,560 Speaker 1: and make history. It turns out what our research showed 397 00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:28,119 Speaker 1: was across geographies and across sectors where transformational change happened 398 00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:30,560 Speaker 1: is where people really start out with a big bet, 399 00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:34,120 Speaker 1: not really dry for incremental change, but keep an eye 400 00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:36,200 Speaker 1: on the price. Now, of course, how you're going to 401 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:39,280 Speaker 1: get there is one step at a time. Um. But 402 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:40,960 Speaker 1: you know, a big bet, I would say is a 403 00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:44,159 Speaker 1: great company warby Parker. You know Fast Companies referred to 404 00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:47,399 Speaker 1: them as the They've won the most Innovative Company award 405 00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:50,000 Speaker 1: from Fast Company. You know, those are just a couple 406 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,280 Speaker 1: of guys. One of them needed a pair of eyeglasses, 407 00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:55,439 Speaker 1: you know, several years back and found out they were 408 00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:57,600 Speaker 1: just they were in college. Was too expensive, too much 409 00:21:57,640 --> 00:21:59,760 Speaker 1: of a hassle, And they said, hey, how about we 410 00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:03,280 Speaker 1: try to think about selling some glasses online? Which, of 411 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:05,280 Speaker 1: course at that time you can imagine what they were 412 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:07,160 Speaker 1: met with. No one's ever going to order a pair 413 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:10,320 Speaker 1: of glasses online. Well, fast forward the tape today and 414 00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:12,879 Speaker 1: not only are they being recognized as you know, the 415 00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:16,159 Speaker 1: most innovative company, but more importantly, their model is so 416 00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:18,880 Speaker 1: cool because you can order them online, you can get 417 00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,679 Speaker 1: them brought to your home. They're affordable, but they have 418 00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:23,600 Speaker 1: this one for one model, so when you buy a 419 00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:27,120 Speaker 1: pair of glasses from them, another person in the developing 420 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:29,040 Speaker 1: world gets pair of glasses that couldn't afford us. So 421 00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 1: they've given away four million pairs of eyeglasses while they 422 00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:36,200 Speaker 1: become one of the hottest brands. That's thinking big obviously, 423 00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:40,200 Speaker 1: UM Junior Chairman of the Board of the National Geographic UM. 424 00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:43,400 Speaker 1: How does be fearless applied to the world of science 425 00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:47,520 Speaker 1: and exploration? Yeah? Well, first of all, I know we 426 00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:51,520 Speaker 1: talked about Gaga last night at the Here We Go. Yeah, 427 00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:56,360 Speaker 1: free solo one. I was National Geographic Films were very 428 00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,119 Speaker 1: very proud. How did that happen? How did that happen? 429 00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 1: How did that movie? Let's make a movie about a 430 00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:04,920 Speaker 1: guy in a cliff and he may die? But then 431 00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:07,679 Speaker 1: how did your chairman of the National Geographic How did 432 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:11,440 Speaker 1: that Oscar happen? So I think it happened through an 433 00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:15,920 Speaker 1: extraordinary story and an extraordinary talent around it to bring 434 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:19,879 Speaker 1: that story to life. But it's emblematic of the fearlessness 435 00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:22,840 Speaker 1: that has been in the National Geographic Society since its 436 00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:26,240 Speaker 1: founding a hundred and thirty one years ago. Time and 437 00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 1: time again, the organization is willing to take risks be 438 00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:32,159 Speaker 1: out there on the front lines of the unknown, and 439 00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:35,720 Speaker 1: free Solo is a great example of that. Geane How 440 00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:37,760 Speaker 1: about the I think another concept that kind of goes 441 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:41,000 Speaker 1: along those lines is reached beyond your bubble. You know, 442 00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:42,520 Speaker 1: I think you know a lot of us can probably 443 00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:44,359 Speaker 1: say you we were pretty comfortable in our bubble. Why 444 00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:47,760 Speaker 1: should we reach outside of our bubble? Yeah, well, you know, 445 00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:49,800 Speaker 1: I think we'd all love to stay in our comfort 446 00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:51,720 Speaker 1: zone or a bubble if we could. But the fact 447 00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:54,520 Speaker 1: of the matter is what success looks like is when 448 00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,520 Speaker 1: people reach outside of their bubbles. And today in the 449 00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,719 Speaker 1: world of finance, for instance, you know, we're not so 450 00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:03,239 Speaker 1: aware of our some growing trends in the nation, and 451 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,760 Speaker 1: that is where some of the newest startup activity of 452 00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:09,119 Speaker 1: new companies is coming from. Is from women and people 453 00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:12,920 Speaker 1: of color, and yet the data is stark. Last year, 454 00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:15,800 Speaker 1: just two percent of enture capital went to firms with 455 00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,960 Speaker 1: a female founder, less than one percent of firms with 456 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:22,760 Speaker 1: an African American founder. But more stunning than that, seventy 457 00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:27,080 Speaker 1: five percent of inenture capital went to just three places California, Massachusetts, 458 00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:29,600 Speaker 1: in New York. So a state like Florida, the third 459 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:32,360 Speaker 1: largest in the nation, got two percent of injure capital. 460 00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:35,720 Speaker 1: So we've really got to start focusing on making sure 461 00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:39,320 Speaker 1: there isn't this consolidation of capital to a few places, 462 00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:41,840 Speaker 1: but really make an extra effort to get out there, 463 00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:44,359 Speaker 1: reach beyond our bubble and find the new classes of 464 00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:47,560 Speaker 1: entrepreneurs who are driving the future. The chairman of National 465 00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:51,080 Speaker 1: Geographic is Paul Sweeney. Sweed said all of us grew 466 00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:55,920 Speaker 1: up with yards of National geographics saved by parents and grandparents. 467 00:24:56,280 --> 00:25:00,199 Speaker 1: Tell me the National Geographic magazine, it's Susan Goldber and 468 00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:04,240 Speaker 1: you it will never go away, right, I really hope not. 469 00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:07,240 Speaker 1: You know, we love our National Geographic Magazine. We treasure 470 00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:09,280 Speaker 1: it as much as those who have been reading it 471 00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:11,880 Speaker 1: for years and years. We do have a digital form 472 00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:14,320 Speaker 1: of the magazine on iPad, on the iPad, which is 473 00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:18,040 Speaker 1: super cool because we can put video assets and you know, 474 00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:20,439 Speaker 1: linked in there that can take you even further. But 475 00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:23,199 Speaker 1: we love the magazine as well, and our channels and 476 00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:26,359 Speaker 1: our digital footprint. You know, just last week we passed 477 00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:30,320 Speaker 1: a hundred million Instagram followers, the first brand in the 478 00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:33,399 Speaker 1: world to do that. Very cool. That's that's a huge 479 00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:37,119 Speaker 1: number of folks, way different than any Facebook calculation. Gene Case, 480 00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:39,800 Speaker 1: thank you so much. The book is Be Fearless, folks. 481 00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:42,440 Speaker 1: I really can't say enough about it. This book came out, 482 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:44,800 Speaker 1: it made a modest splash gene Case and all that, 483 00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:48,840 Speaker 1: but it is gathered momentum in steam through two thousand 484 00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:52,840 Speaker 1: eighteen and into two thousand nineteen. Five principles for a 485 00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:55,520 Speaker 1: life of breakthroughs in purpose, and as Paul Sweeney said, 486 00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:58,520 Speaker 1: it's just about courage. It's just about what you need 487 00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:01,320 Speaker 1: to do to try to move things for for you 488 00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:06,760 Speaker 1: and your family as well. Be Fearless, gene Case. Thanks 489 00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:11,000 Speaker 1: for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen 490 00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:16,560 Speaker 1: to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform 491 00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:20,960 Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane. Before the podcast, 492 00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:24,560 Speaker 1: you can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.