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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane along

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Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferroll and Lisa Brownwitz Jaily. We bring you

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Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

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Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, sun Cloud, Bloomberg dot com,

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Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. Some of the

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Speaker 1: dynamics that we see right now in well time to

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Speaker 1: speak with Burrot Marmorti nationally got on a Council Deputy director.

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Speaker 1: And what it's so important here is it is experience

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Speaker 1: for the democratic politics of this nation and working with

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Speaker 1: committees as well. Broad I've got to go right to

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Speaker 1: your work with Senator Warren years ago and the tax

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Speaker 1: the tax frenzy the media has right now and the

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Speaker 1: reality of the committee process. How will the Biden administration

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Speaker 1: work with the committees in this modern politics? Sure so

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Speaker 1: that the President has laid out of tax agenda during

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Speaker 1: the campaign. It involved higher taxes on big corporations, multinational corporations,

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Speaker 1: taxes that tax changes that were intended to drive more

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Speaker 1: investment into the United States rather than abroad. Uh and

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Speaker 1: higher taxes on extremely wealthy individuals, those people making more

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Speaker 1: than four hundred thousand dollars a year, and so UH

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Speaker 1: we we hope to work with Congress to accomplish those goals. UH.

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Speaker 1: The President's tax plan is intended to make sure that

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Speaker 1: middle class families are are not paying more than their

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Speaker 1: fair share, and that the wealthiest folks who buy in

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Speaker 1: large have done quite well over the last several years,

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Speaker 1: including during the last year, are paying a little bit more.

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Speaker 1: Part of our social fabric is the single versus married split.

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Speaker 1: Are you gonna play with the social construct of our

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Speaker 1: tax system and particularly joint had a household and single dynamics. Now,

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Speaker 1: I don't believe that there's any plans for that as

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Speaker 1: you as you know, the tax recognizes that, you know,

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Speaker 1: different UH thresholds are wererant it depending on whether you're

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Speaker 1: filing as a single person or married. I don't think

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Speaker 1: that there's any plans to fundamentally change any of that.

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Speaker 1: But as I said, the key here is that the

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Speaker 1: President believes strongly that the biggest corporations and those folks

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Speaker 1: who have done extremely well over the last several decades

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Speaker 1: should pay a bit more to finance to support investments

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Speaker 1: UH in in the U. S and country. I help

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Speaker 1: me understand this, because something really important is happening down

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Speaker 1: in Washington. You've just called anyone earning over four d

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Speaker 1: extremely wealthy. At the same time, down in Washington, we've

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Speaker 1: decided that a family earning a hundred and fifty thousand

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Speaker 1: is deserving of a relief check as well. Are we

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Speaker 1: defining something important here? Are these just numbers plugged out

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Speaker 1: a thin air? Is there a message underlying these numbers? Sure?

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Speaker 1: I mean, the president's view is that you know a

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Speaker 1: teacher and a nurse who collectively make you know, a

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Speaker 1: hundred and ten thousand dollars UH her relief And what

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Speaker 1: we've seen in the data is that families with that

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Speaker 1: kind of profile have suffered. I mean, it's important to

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Speaker 1: remember that, according to the latest data, one and seven

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Speaker 1: American families reported going hungary during the pandemic. There's a

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Speaker 1: lot of need. That it's very widespread need. And remember,

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Speaker 1: in addition to the fact that the unemployment rate is elevated,

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Speaker 1: there's also evidence that folks have had to cut back

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Speaker 1: on hours, had to take wage cuts in order to

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Speaker 1: make it through the pandemic. So there's widespread need and

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Speaker 1: the economic impact payments the checks reflecting although there is

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Speaker 1: a difference between a hundred and fifty and twenty, there's

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Speaker 1: a difference between a hundred and fifty and no income.

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Speaker 1: And this raises a question of whether this is trying

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Speaker 1: to simulate spending and ignite some sort of economic growth

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Speaker 1: versus plugging a gap and evening out the playing field.

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Speaker 1: Which is it. Well, I think that the American Rescue Plan,

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Speaker 1: which recently passed, targets money towards those lower income and

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Speaker 1: middle income families. Remember, it's not just the checks. There's

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Speaker 1: an expansion of the child Pax, which is going to

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Speaker 1: provide parents with children additional support. Obviously, there's an extension

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Speaker 1: of unemployment insurance, which is obviously targeted at folks who

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Speaker 1: have lost their jobs. You no fault of their own.

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Speaker 1: So collectively, what you what you've seen, and what the

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Speaker 1: objective independent analysis and analyses have shown, is that this

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Speaker 1: approach is going to drive a tremendous amount of support

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Speaker 1: to lowering from folks, especially lowering from folks with children.

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Speaker 1: And we think that that's appropriate. Remember, uh, this plan

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Speaker 1: is going to cut child poverty in the United States

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Speaker 1: in half, and we think that that's one of the

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Speaker 1: main benefits of it. Is it a goal to make

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Speaker 1: the child tax credit permanent? The President said that he's

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Speaker 1: interested in looking at that. Obviously we're not quite bit

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Speaker 1: at that point yet. You want to make sure that

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Speaker 1: in the short term all of the good relief provisions

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Speaker 1: in the American Rescue Plan actually end up in the

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Speaker 1: pockets of the American people. And so this week and

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Speaker 1: next week, what you're seeing is the administration traveling the

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Speaker 1: country trying to explain to people how they get actually

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Speaker 1: acts us the relief that they're entitled to under this bill.

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Speaker 1: That's really important. Rot This is an important question. It's

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Speaker 1: a curiosity for our global Wall Street audience day to day.

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Speaker 1: What do you observe in the White House is to

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Speaker 1: how the President takes in his economic advice. What does

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Speaker 1: the Biden method of taking in your wisdom and for

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Speaker 1: that matter, Secretary Yellin's wisdom. Yeah. So, look, this is

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Speaker 1: a very data driven, empirically based approach, and you've seen

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Speaker 1: it in the arguments that the President has been making

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Speaker 1: over the last several months about the need to go

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Speaker 1: big in response to this crisis, and the point that

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Speaker 1: the cost of doing too little UH is greater than

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Speaker 1: the cost of doing too much in the situation, UM.

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Speaker 1: And you also see it in the fact that the

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Speaker 1: President has said, UM that it's totally reasonable and the

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Speaker 1: right thing to do economically, UH to deficit finance this

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Speaker 1: relief plan, because in the long term, the cost of

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Speaker 1: not providing this relief and letting the economy stagnate for

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Speaker 1: longer is also quite severe. All Right, it's great to

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Speaker 1: catch up and we appreciate time. So come back soon

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Speaker 1: one year rama the National Economic Council with Deputy Director.

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Speaker 1: This is a joy and this is what it's all about.

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Speaker 1: It's what Jonathan Pharaoh, Lisa Bramwints and I agree on

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Speaker 1: stop and talk to smart people. Patricia Moser is one

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Speaker 1: of the most wonderful economists we have at Columbia. Yes,

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Speaker 1: a former New York FED official, yes, but her heritage

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Speaker 1: from Carl Case at Wellesley on to M. I. T.

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Speaker 1: And Blanchard and Fisher and onto her first rate economics

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Speaker 1: sets her up. Is truly someone with perspective on Jerome

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Speaker 1: Powell and this Fed. Professor Moser, thank you so much

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Speaker 1: for joining us today. I want to go to M I. T. Economics,

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Speaker 1: which is the X axis and the time continuum. What

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Speaker 1: in God's name, does transitory mean to someone that's studied

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Speaker 1: under Fisher and Blanchard. Well, I was listening to a

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Speaker 1: banker for a lot longer than I studied with stand

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Speaker 1: Fisher and Olivia black Shards. So I'm going to answer

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Speaker 1: that a little of both. UH. Transitory depends on the

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Speaker 1: market and the circumstances. Macro Economic transitory is a few quarters. UH.

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Speaker 1: Financial market transitory is if you're lucky, it's a couple

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Speaker 1: of minutes, but you know, maybe a day or two tops.

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Speaker 1: So UM, I think it depends on the it depends

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Speaker 1: on the circumstances. UM. From a monetary policy standpoint, if

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Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about the FED, I think that it's uh.

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Speaker 1: It's transitory is something that they're looking at from a

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Speaker 1: matho perspective usually unless they're explicitly talking about markets, and

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Speaker 1: that means a quarter or two. And to the comment

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Speaker 1: that that was made a couple of minutes ago about

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Speaker 1: looking through this, I think that's basically a simple bankers

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Speaker 1: interpretation of what's happened in the last few months. Is

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Speaker 1: the reason that um uh nearly everybody I know and

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Speaker 1: I certainly agree with this. I think that this is

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Speaker 1: good news toole point is to get the economy growing faster,

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Speaker 1: real interest rates up, inflation expectations up. And both of

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Speaker 1: those things have happened. Uh. Now it's at the cost

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Speaker 1: that you know, it's not good news for if you're

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Speaker 1: fixed income investor. Uh. But but otherwise it's actually very

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Speaker 1: incommicy news from a map. Stan Fishers stopped the Economic

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Speaker 1: Club of New York a couple of years ago with

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Speaker 1: the discussion of the percentage move from low yields. Are

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Speaker 1: you taken aback by the abruptness of the move and

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Speaker 1: low yields to a higher point or even up to

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Speaker 1: focus Landau's two point to five predicted this morning. So, um,

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Speaker 1: it was speedier than things that we've seen the last

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Speaker 1: ten years, ten twelve years or so. But let me

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Speaker 1: be blunt. Anybody who has uh thinks about what I

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Speaker 1: call normal monetary policy, which is kind of four eight. Um,

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Speaker 1: this is not ridiculously abrupt. It's actually kind of stereotypical behavior.

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Speaker 1: Toward the second half of the recession. Your kirk gets steeper,

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Speaker 1: the long end reads, the short end out, inflation expectations rise,

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Speaker 1: real rates rise, and by the way, risk premia at

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Speaker 1: the same time, this iss gone has been going on,

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Speaker 1: have actually gone down. I think how you'ld how you'ld

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Speaker 1: spreads upon like forty basis on into this period. So

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Speaker 1: this is not a sign of like tight credit and

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Speaker 1: things going wrong. This is a sign of things going

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Speaker 1: right right. But Patricia, there is a concern about whether

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Speaker 1: we could see as some sort of additional tantrum, I

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Speaker 1: mean against nord Vaga. Exante was just on and he

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Speaker 1: was saying, really it will hinge this week, and whether

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Speaker 1: the Fed gives guidance on how far they're willing to

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Speaker 1: overshoot with inflation before they start to get nervous and

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Speaker 1: start to talk about rate rises, and he said, it's

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Speaker 1: a big difference if it's two point one percent inflation

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Speaker 1: or if it's two point five percent. Do you expect

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Speaker 1: the Fed to give guidance and what do you think

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Speaker 1: the reaction could be? Yeah, I doubt if they're going

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Speaker 1: to give that explicit guidance um right now. Will they

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Speaker 1: eventually have to do that? I think it's entirely possible

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Speaker 1: that they're going to have to And perhaps the way

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Speaker 1: they'll give that guidance is through a series of speeches

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Speaker 1: rather than through a formal agreement. Because based on history,

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Speaker 1: and my guess is that there's not complete agreement on

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Speaker 1: the E and C about how far amongst this particular

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Speaker 1: set of members about exactly how far above two they

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Speaker 1: would go. You know, transitory, if it's truly transitory for

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Speaker 1: a few quarters. This is what we're um the word

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Speaker 1: of the word of the morning. Um. Uh. Then I

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Speaker 1: think I'd almost all agree that having transitory inflation at

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Speaker 1: two and a half percent for a while, if their

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Speaker 1: forecasts and their excellent economic reasons to believe that's not

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Speaker 1: going to last, um, like the reversal of supply shocks

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Speaker 1: from a year ago, for example. UM, then I don't

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Speaker 1: think you're going to have a problem with the vast

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Speaker 1: majority of the the F one s TEA members. They're gonna

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Speaker 1: say that's fine, particularly if it gets us from under

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Speaker 1: one and a half to closer to two percent on

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Speaker 1: a long run basis. That's that's what they're after. Um,

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Speaker 1: and more of all utility, a little bit more, a

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Speaker 1: little bit more volatility and inflation is exactly what they're

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Speaker 1: aiming for. I think that the question about whether there

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Speaker 1: will be another tantrum is slightly different though. Um, It's

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Speaker 1: not that the Treasury market is completely immune from supply effects.

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Speaker 1: And there's gonna be a lot of supply of treasury obviously, Um,

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Speaker 1: there was going to be anyway, but with the fiscal

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Speaker 1: stimula package, there's going to be a lot and very

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Speaker 1: occasionally rarely. Um. It's one reason I get so much attention. Uh,

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Speaker 1: you can get real supply effects in the treasury market.

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Speaker 1: I called the pig in the python problem. Um. And

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Speaker 1: of course dealers are a lot healthier financial institutions than

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Speaker 1: they were twelve years ago, but their balancutes are also

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Speaker 1: a bit less flexible and as a as a result

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Speaker 1: of the changes, and so I think they're regulatory changes.

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Speaker 1: And so given that the odds of this of having

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Speaker 1: a few bumps along the way and a little more

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Speaker 1: volatility than we've had, I think I think it's hot.

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Speaker 1: But honestly, there's been no voluntarity for twelve years since

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Speaker 1: it's partly what everybody's expectations are how fixed income markets

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Speaker 1: should behave. UM. Sorry to be a little bit you know,

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Speaker 1: old school about this, but um, well but Patricia or

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Speaker 1: worried about too much supply, like more than investors want.

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Speaker 1: That's a very rare thing to happen in treasury markets.

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Speaker 1: It hasn't happened since the eighties. Um Um, I don't

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Speaker 1: think it's very likely, but it's always a risk. And

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Speaker 1: that's why I thought what Secretary Yelling said the other

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Speaker 1: day about eventually doing something when the economy is in

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Speaker 1: debt or shape, about about the fistal deficity is important. Well,

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Speaker 1: but no worries. I mean, these are all really important points.

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Speaker 1: And it brings me to the Fed's balance sheet, the

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Speaker 1: idea that we have the seven point six trillion dollar

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Speaker 1: balance sheet, and there's a question of how much the

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Speaker 1: Fed will operate as an absorbed, as an absorption tool

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Speaker 1: basically for all of this supply. At what point will

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Speaker 1: they essentially monetize the debt buying the dead of the

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Speaker 1: United States And basically it's a wash if they don't

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Speaker 1: ever shrink their balance sheet. Do you think that they'll

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Speaker 1: give guiding about how much the actimist capacity and continue

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Speaker 1: to expand their balance seat despite the incredibly easy monetary

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Speaker 1: conditions that we've seen. So um, I don't think they're

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Speaker 1: in a rush to get out of it. Because one

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Speaker 1: of the things I think that's very interesting is how

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Speaker 1: uncertain everybody sort of things, Okay, this is good news

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Speaker 1: about inflation, but the uncertainty about medium term inflation is

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Speaker 1: very high right now. Honestly, COVID is a completely different

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Speaker 1: kind of shock going to they have, and so understanding

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Speaker 1: what the implications are going to be for prices and

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Speaker 1: wages two years out now is incredibly difficult to do.

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Speaker 1: And so I that's one reason that I think they're

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Speaker 1: going to be hesitant to give too much guidance because

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Speaker 1: they don't want to give the impression they're gonna right now,

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Speaker 1: this very minute. They don't want to give the impression

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Speaker 1: they're going to pull back too soon. But they will

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Speaker 1: give guidance. They they did a pretty decent job of

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Speaker 1: it when they not the paper tantrum in but after

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Speaker 1: that they learned, uh, and they did a pretty decent job.

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Speaker 1: And they're gonna do this way ahead at time. And

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Speaker 1: I don't think they're there yet because I don't think

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Speaker 1: the economy is strong enough and inflation is on where

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Speaker 1: they wanted to be. Um Uh. The one thing that

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Speaker 1: I will say, um though about um the the the

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Speaker 1: Fed's balance sheet is that from a dealer capacity standpoint,

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Speaker 1: the Fed buying treasuries and creating reserves doesn't really help,

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Speaker 1: but just sort of trades one kind of state Bassett

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Speaker 1: for a different kind of state Bassett on the bank's

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Speaker 1: balance sheets. Um, and it doesn't sort of solve the

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Speaker 1: capacity problem, the flexibility problem per se. Actually, I think

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Speaker 1: what the bank regulators decided to do about the supplementary

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Speaker 1: leverage ration of this month, I think that's decided before

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Speaker 1: the end of them up. Maybe more important there something

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Speaker 1: we'll focus on a little bit more in the days ahead. Professor,

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Speaker 1: thanks for time this morning, because most of that of

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Speaker 1: Columbia University. An hour ago we beat to duth Ian

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Speaker 1: lingon a BEMO Capital Markets. Abramowitz and Ferrell absolutely killed

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Speaker 1: the translation of its notes. He has had of US

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Speaker 1: rates at BEMO Capital Markets. And Mr Lincoln joins us

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Speaker 1: this morning and I make jokes about it, but it's

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Speaker 1: not funny. It is a record issuance of debt. What

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Speaker 1: is the distinction of this record issuance of debt? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think that the real defining characteristic of what we're

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Speaker 1: seeing at this moment in terms of new Treasury issuances.

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Speaker 1: It's not going to all be in the front into

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Speaker 1: the curve. The Treasury Secretary wants to turn it out

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Speaker 1: so we're seeing more thirties, more twenties, more tens, and

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Speaker 1: it's coming at a moment where the FED is content

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Speaker 1: to characterize the back up and yields as a positive

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Speaker 1: sign because it reflects in improving economic outlook and inflation expectations.

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Speaker 1: There will be a point in which we look back

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Speaker 1: at the higher rates we're seeing and say, wow, that

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Speaker 1: was a great buying opportunity. The question, in my mind

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Speaker 1: is is that one sex deten ye yields or is

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Speaker 1: it one seventy five? And we'll get there in and

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Speaker 1: I want to elaborate a little bit about how to

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Speaker 1: know and what to even gauge out. But there's a

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Speaker 1: question we talk about all this supply. How much is

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Speaker 1: the FED buying? I mean, they've sucked up a substantial

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Speaker 1: portion of this. Will they continue to absorb the us

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Speaker 1: IS ample and record debt sales, Well, they won't be

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Speaker 1: buying the entirety of net issuance. In fact, we're projecting

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Speaker 1: somewhere around one point eight trillion dollars off net new

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Speaker 1: issuants out find of what's going into SOMA or at

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Speaker 1: the FED. So they we will really need underwriters from

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Speaker 1: different parts of the economy and different parts of the

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Speaker 1: market in different parts of the world to actually get

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Speaker 1: the US bet. So, why do you think that treasure

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Speaker 1: yields are capped at one seventy five or that it

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Speaker 1: becomes a buying opportunity there? Why not two percent to

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Speaker 1: and a quarter percent, which is what some houses are saying.

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Speaker 1: I think at one seventy five, we start to look

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Speaker 1: at what's going on in the US in terms of

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Speaker 1: the treasury market, versus what's going on in Europe, what's

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Speaker 1: going on in Japan, and on a comparative On a

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Speaker 1: comparative basis, we're already starting to book attractive another fifteen

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Speaker 1: twenty basis points I suspect will be the point where

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Speaker 1: we start to see wobbles and risk assets and bring

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Speaker 1: in those sideline buyers. But to be fair, I could

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Speaker 1: certainly envision a situation where the Fed gives the green

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Speaker 1: might to the very steepening tomorrow and we take a

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Speaker 1: shot at a two handle tins and that would be

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Speaker 1: a I think that would be a shock to the

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Speaker 1: equity market. And can you give us a game plan

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Speaker 1: for the twenty year issue? Who actually buys the twenty

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Speaker 1: year and how much of a read across can you

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Speaker 1: take from the twenty year issue today just for the

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Speaker 1: broadest treasury market? So the twenty year issue, obviously it's

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Speaker 1: a recent reintroduction to the benchmark. It has a set

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Speaker 1: of natural buyers because it's the CTD for the classic

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Speaker 1: bond contract and so there has been a solid bid.

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Speaker 1: Auctions tend to tail slightly, but it's not a big

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Speaker 1: foreign issue unlike tins for example, so it's a It

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Speaker 1: does have structural buyers, but as a read for what

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Speaker 1: it means for the rest of the market. The only

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Speaker 1: way that the twenty year auction matters this afternoon is

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Speaker 1: if we get a repeat of what we saw at

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Speaker 1: February seven sevens, which was a significant tale despite a

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Speaker 1: reasonable concession. Do you think that should be ignored that

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Speaker 1: way in at this stage. I think that there's plenty

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Speaker 1: of underwriting demand. At some stage, if we continue to

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Speaker 1: see supply indigestion comparable to the sevens consistent tail versus

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Speaker 1: the one pm win issue rate, that's going to merit

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Speaker 1: a more significant repricing. That would be one of my

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Speaker 1: biggest concerns in terms of how supply could truly reshape

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Speaker 1: the curve in Lincoln year the bank amount you all,

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Speaker 1: and I know when this pandemic is over, they're going

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Speaker 1: to drag you up to my After all, you're gonna

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Speaker 1: go with the big shots to see the Canadians beat

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Speaker 1: the leaves. And someone's going to turn to you between

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Speaker 1: the second and third period and say, look, my biggest

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Speaker 1: fear as the foreigners don't show up. How do you

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Speaker 1: answer the age old question that the foreigners will not

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Speaker 1: show up to buy the United States full faith and

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Speaker 1: credit paper. I think that the classic bond market adage

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Speaker 1: that there's no such thing as a bad bond, just

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Speaker 1: a bad price, is particularly apt in this context. People

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Speaker 1: will show up to buy US treasuries. The question is

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Speaker 1: at what yield will they need to be enticed in

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Speaker 1: from the sidelines. And that's what we're seeing defined as

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Speaker 1: the outpost. One outlook continues to brighten this Lisa's ice

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Speaker 1: hockey games. Is that what you're implying to the Lisa

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Speaker 1: shows up to an ice hockey game and I'll see

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Speaker 1: and yeah, really it depends where you are. If you're

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Speaker 1: in North Dakota, pretty exciting, it's always exciting. Actually, Rangers

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Speaker 1: game is pretty exciting. To do you really want to

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Speaker 1: have this conversation John, it's she holds in the boxes

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Speaker 1: at Madison Square Garden. You can hear a pin drop

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Speaker 1: when she starts terrible. If we get a briefing now,

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Speaker 1: which has become extremely anticipated for all of our viewers

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Speaker 1: and listeners, I'm Adalgia is a John Hopkins Center for

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Speaker 1: Health Security and has provided just immense, immense value to us.

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Speaker 1: All in the media love the charts of cases. They're dramatic,

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Speaker 1: they're emotional, they're the easily accountable. The pros look at

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Speaker 1: deaths and hospitalizations. When would you assume the public will

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Speaker 1: finally shift onto your territory of death and the hospitalization dynamics.

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Speaker 1: I think they're already starting to as they see that

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Speaker 1: people get there, are getting vaccinated, as they don't hear

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Speaker 1: about hospital pacity problems anymore, As they realize that nursing

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Speaker 1: homes have been vaccinated, I think they're starting to understand

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Speaker 1: that the concept really is not to get to COVID zero,

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Speaker 1: but detain the virus to defend it so that it

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Speaker 1: doesn't have the ability to cause serious disease, hospitalization and death.

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Speaker 1: And I think they're going to get there because eventually

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Speaker 1: that's all everybody is going to be looking at because

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Speaker 1: that this is what this is what flatting the curve

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Speaker 1: has always been about, as being below hospital capacity. And

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Speaker 1: if you're in that position, we're dealing with a very

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Speaker 1: different virus than we were a year ago. And I

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Speaker 1: think that it's gonna take some time and the media

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Speaker 1: is going to have to report more on on that

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Speaker 1: than they are on on cases, and it's going to

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Speaker 1: be a shift, but I think it is going to occur,

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Speaker 1: and it is starting to occur, so it's more attentionally

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Speaker 1: drawn to that. People will ask whether we can aggressively

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Speaker 1: wide and broaden the eligibility full vaccinations. Do you think

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Speaker 1: we're at that point right now? I do think we're

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Speaker 1: starting to see states get broader. We've we've heard about

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Speaker 1: We've heard about Alaska broadening. There's other states that are

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Speaker 1: now broadening eligibility. It's just a question of being supplied

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Speaker 1: constrained right now, and the supply is going to get

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Speaker 1: better each day gets a little bit better as as

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Speaker 1: we get closer and closer to delivery dates for Fiser Maderna,

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Speaker 1: for Johnson and Johnson for bigger amounts of this vaccine.

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Speaker 1: So I do think it's going to be a point

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Speaker 1: than we're just vaccinating in anybody that wants to be vaccinated.

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Speaker 1: As the President said, I can make an appointment in May,

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Speaker 1: and I think we're looking at at summer, hopefully a

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Speaker 1: little bit earlier than that late spring, where that can

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Speaker 1: be the case, because that will really get things completely

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Speaker 1: back on track and we'll see the clear trajectory out

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Speaker 1: of this pandemic. It's already already sensing frustration amongst certain people,

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Speaker 1: including myself, and I'll be very open about that. The

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Speaker 1: idea that smoke has in certain states have seemed to

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Speaker 1: jump the line. A choice to smoke has given you

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Speaker 1: the opportunities get a vaccine before people have chosen not

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Speaker 1: to smoke. What's the best way of dealing with these issues?

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Speaker 1: You have to remember that the vaccine is about really

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Speaker 1: decreasing decreasing the pressure on hospitals by vaccinating high risk individuals.

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Speaker 1: So when we look at this as a public health problem,

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Speaker 1: they were trying to say, how can we stretch this

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Speaker 1: vaccine supply the best so that our hospitals never get

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Speaker 1: in trouble. So if you're a smoker, you're more likely

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Speaker 1: to be hospitalized. So it's on any kind of personal

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Speaker 1: approval of your behavior. It's just your behavior puts you

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Speaker 1: at risk for severe disease. We're worried about hospital capacity,

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Speaker 1: is worried about I cu bed, So we're going to

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Speaker 1: give you a vaccine so hospitals don't have to worry

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Speaker 1: about you. That's how That's how I put that. You've

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Speaker 1: done that, Dr Adult. In the meantime, over in Europe,

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Speaker 1: you have a growing number of countries suspending the use

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Speaker 1: of the astro Zenica vaccine. What's your view on the

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Speaker 1: efficacy of this particular inoculation and whether it ought to

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Speaker 1: be continued to be distributed. I think it should be

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Speaker 1: continued to be distributed. We've seen tremendous success in the

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Speaker 1: United Kingdom with this. It's actually approved in Canada as well.

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Speaker 1: This is a vaccine uses innovative technology. I think they've

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Speaker 1: had some difficulties with the EO, difficulties with dosing, and

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Speaker 1: now there's been some reports of blood clots, but they're

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Speaker 1: not above the background rate that you would expect in

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Speaker 1: a population that's been vaccinated. Uh. And I think this

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Speaker 1: is just one of those spurious associations because and people

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Speaker 1: need to be explained that just because something happens after

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Speaker 1: a vaccination doesn't mean that it's been caused by vaccination.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna stop the show. This is really really important,

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Speaker 1: Dr Adlga. Are you telling us that the uproar in

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Speaker 1: Europe nation to nation about the astra Zeneca vaccine is

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Speaker 1: overdone or the uproar is off the mark, or incorrect

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Speaker 1: all of the above. I don't think that this is justified.

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Speaker 1: Other countries like the UK have not suspended this, this

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Speaker 1: this association with blood clots. Everyone has looked at the

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Speaker 1: data so far and said, this doesn't look like as

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Speaker 1: a biological mechanism. It is not above the background rate

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Speaker 1: of what you would expect and in a population that big,

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Speaker 1: and this is something you know we see with vaccines

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Speaker 1: when you give them to large population, certain things happen

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Speaker 1: and doesn't mean it's caused by the vaccine. It's important

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Speaker 1: to look to understand and try and figure that out.

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Speaker 1: But I don't think in the midst of a pandemic

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Speaker 1: where people are dying where you're many European countries are

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Speaker 1: going into lockdowns, that a vaccine that's been proven to

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Speaker 1: be highly effective in the United Kingdom should be suspended.

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Speaker 1: I think it's the wrong decision, don't to. We appreciate

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Speaker 1: your time, your insight, your perspective. As always stilt to

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Speaker 1: animish it down to that Jones Health can sense if

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Speaker 1: a house security a scola. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from seven to

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00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 1: ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television

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00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 1: each day from six to nine am for insight from

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00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:19,879
Speaker 1: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. And

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Speaker 1: subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: dot com, and of course on the terminal. I'm Tom

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Speaker 1: Keene and this is Bloomberg