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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome in to another episode of our

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Speaker 2: college basketball Pick show with me Matt Pereltz. It's a Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: and that means you get this show. But next week

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Speaker 2: it'll go to Wednesday, and then stay tuned for the

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Speaker 2: rest of the tournament as we will maybe move it

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Speaker 2: to Wednesday to make sure we can capitalize on all

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Speaker 2: the plays that will happen. Thursday and Friday of the

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Speaker 2: first round of the NCAA Tournament is next week unbelievable.

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Speaker 2: And then we get to the Sweet sixteen, then we

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Speaker 2: get to the Final four, and then Monday we'll have

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Speaker 2: obviously a release for the National Championship game. So stay tuned.

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Speaker 2: A lot of hops to be bet here over the

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Speaker 2: next month. I've got three conference tournament final games with

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Speaker 2: bets to give you guys. Here on today's program, there

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Speaker 2: is a hard ruck bet of the day as well.

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Speaker 2: But before we get to the picks, let's remind you

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Speaker 2: let's start talking about tonight's West Coast Conference Final, Gonzaga

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Speaker 2: against a team that wasn't supposed to be here. This

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Speaker 2: was supposed to be Saint Mary's. Saint Mary's lost last night.

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Speaker 2: It's Santa Clara instead. Santa Clara comes into this game

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Speaker 2: and already people are betting against them. Already the number

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Speaker 2: has moved from six and a half to seven and

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Speaker 2: a half.

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Speaker 1: But Santa Clara has.

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Speaker 2: Been bombing threes in the West Coast tournaments West Coast

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Speaker 2: Conference tournaments, and they were dogs last night. They win

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Speaker 2: the game outright, They're dogs again here now. Against the spread.

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Speaker 2: Santa Clara is seventeen fourteen and one this season in conference,

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Speaker 2: though they're twelve and eight. Gonzaga is seventeen and fifteen.

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Speaker 2: They're nine and ten against the spread. They didn't cover

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Speaker 2: against Oregon State yesterday. We bet I was on Gonzaga

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Speaker 2: laying eighteen and a half points. That was never even possible.

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Speaker 2: They never really got close to that against Oregon State.

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Speaker 2: And you might say, well, Matt, they were just warming up,

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Speaker 2: or they were holding back, whatever you want to say.

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Speaker 2: I didn't love what I saw out of Gonzaga last night,

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Speaker 2: to be quite honest, here in Vegas. This is the

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Speaker 2: last West Coast Conference tournament for Gonzaga here in Las Vegas.

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Speaker 2: And maybe there is some like we don't care because

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Speaker 2: we're leaving attitude going on in that locker room, Santa

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Speaker 2: Clara having a chance to make the NCAA tournament. Gonzaga

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Speaker 2: is in. We know that Attentha Clara is not. They

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Speaker 2: played Gonzaga at home back on the eighth of January

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Speaker 2: and they lost by twelve, as seventeen and a half

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Speaker 2: point dogs. They then Gonzaga at home they were catching

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Speaker 2: five and a half and they lost by eight. So

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Speaker 2: they're zero and two straight up, but they're one in

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Speaker 2: one against the number up against Gonzaga. You look at

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Speaker 2: some of the just the breakdown for this game on

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Speaker 2: from Ken Pom, and it is you know, you could say,

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Speaker 2: all right, Gonzaga is going to go in there and

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Speaker 2: kill them because the numbers is really benefit them.

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Speaker 1: But according to kempom.

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Speaker 2: It's a six point win for Gonzaga, not that big

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Speaker 2: of a difference. You look at Santa Clara's offense, They're

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Speaker 2: twenty first in offensive efficiency, They're forty fourth in effective

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Speaker 2: field goal percentage. We talked about the three point shooting.

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Speaker 2: They came into the tournament one hundred and eleventh in

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Speaker 2: three point shooting, but thirty five point two percent of

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Speaker 2: the making thirty percent of their shots from behind the arc.

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Speaker 2: This team gets thirty six point six percent of their

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Speaker 2: offense from behind the three point line. That's nearly top

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Speaker 2: fifty in the country. So really it's going to come

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Speaker 2: down to the three point shot. You know, Gonzaga is

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Speaker 2: going to play great defense here, but Santa Clara defensively.

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Speaker 1: Is not horrible. They're not great, but they're not horrible.

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Speaker 2: There's seventy third in defensive efficiency, They're one hundred and

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Speaker 2: sixty second in effective field goal percentage. They don't guard

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Speaker 2: the two all that great, which is really hard against Gonzaga.

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Speaker 2: So it really comes down to like a make or

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Speaker 2: miss type of situation. But I liked what I saw

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Speaker 2: out of Santa Clara. I think they can keep the

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Speaker 2: game close. I think once we passed over two possessions.

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Speaker 2: I think it's too heavy, and it's another indication where

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Speaker 2: the public just comes in and bets Gonzaga because they think, well,

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Speaker 2: it's Gonzaga, so they go ahead and hammer the Zags

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Speaker 2: in a blowout. I fell onto the trap yesterday. I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna come back and take the dog here. I'm taking

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Speaker 2: Santa Clara. Give me Santa Clara plus seven and a

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Speaker 2: half against Gonzaga tonight in the West Coast Conference Final,

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Speaker 2: with this game coming all the way down to the buzzer,

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Speaker 2: potentially for Santa Clare, maybe a knockout Gonzaga and make

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Speaker 2: the NCAA Tournament. Like the dog there in that game

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Speaker 2: at plus seven and a half. Let's move on over

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Speaker 2: to the Horizon Final, where we'll find Detroit Mercy taking

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Speaker 2: on Right State. Okay, this game is expected to be

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Speaker 2: pretty low scoring between these two. I watched a bit

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Speaker 2: of the game last night involving Detroit Mercy. I wasn't

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Speaker 2: in love, to be completely frank, They won the game

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Speaker 2: seventy to sixty four over Robert Morris. I thought Robert

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Speaker 2: Morris was the better basketball team with better players. That

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Speaker 2: is played like crap. They look awful. Right Detroit Mercy

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Speaker 2: is a team this year they've actually defeated Wright State

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Speaker 2: seventy seven to seventy four on the road, and I

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Speaker 2: think that's going to play into this game here. I

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Speaker 2: think we see a pretty angry Right State team. They

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Speaker 2: know who they're going to face, they know they have

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Speaker 2: a chance to punch their ticket here, and they, according

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Speaker 2: to kempom, will win the game by four. Detroit Mercy

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Speaker 2: defensively is just not good. I mean we're talking red

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Speaker 2: numbers all over the place. On Kempom. They're two fifty

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Speaker 2: and defensive efficiency. They're two forty first in defensive effective

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Speaker 2: field goal percentage. They're one hundred and fifty fourth and

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Speaker 2: three point defense. They're two hundred and sixty two hundred

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Speaker 2: and eighty third in two point defense. In Right State's

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Speaker 2: offense is good, one hundred and eleventh in efficiency, fifty

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Speaker 2: second in effective field goal percentage, they're forty third and

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Speaker 2: three point shooting, they're sixty fourth and two point shooting. Defensively,

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Speaker 2: Right State's not great either. So maybe you could look

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Speaker 2: at the over, but I've seen people who like the

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Speaker 2: under just because of legs and tired legs. Between these

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Speaker 2: two teams.

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Speaker 1: But I like Wright State. I think you can lay

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Speaker 1: the points here.

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Speaker 2: I think the run here, the kind of the Cinderella

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Speaker 2: run for Detroit Mercy comes to a close here in

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Speaker 2: this one. And I think we're gonna have some fun

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Speaker 2: watching this game. I mean, the Horizon is known for offense,

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Speaker 2: so it's kind of weird to see a one to

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Speaker 2: fifty one and a half from a number perspective. You know,

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Speaker 2: it has now Right States eight and two over their

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Speaker 2: last ten games up against Detroit Mercy. But like I

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Speaker 2: talked about the last two games between these teams, it's

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Speaker 2: been a one and one a split. Right State's been

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Speaker 2: favored by five and a half and ten and a

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Speaker 2: half in those games are favored by four and a

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Speaker 2: half now, So this is the lowest number we've seen

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Speaker 2: the Right State being favored over Detroit Mercy. But it's

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Speaker 2: twenty two and eleven Wright State versus seventeen and fourteen

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Speaker 2: Detroit Mercy. I'll lay the points here. I think Wright State.

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Speaker 2: I just had I watched a bit of Detroit Mercy

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Speaker 2: last night. I wasn't that impressed. I'm gonna come in.

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Speaker 2: I'm taking in the Horizon final Wright State laying four

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Speaker 2: and a half against Detroit Mercy here to punch their

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Speaker 2: ticket to the NCAA Tournament. Before I give you the

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Speaker 2: hard rock bet of the day, that it reminds you

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Speaker 2: about our friends at hard Rock and what they've got

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Speaker 2: kracking here in March. It is big, it's here, and

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Speaker 2: that means college basketball taking the center stage for all

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Speaker 2: of the shots, all of the dunks, everything that's coming,

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Speaker 2: the upsets and the buzzer beaters. Stakes are rising, shots

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Speaker 2: are falling, and it's a great time to get involved

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Speaker 2: with hard Rock bet. They are offering today a sign

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Speaker 2: up bonus where they will double your winnings on your

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Speaker 2: first ten bets. It's a maximum fifty dollars. You win

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Speaker 2: one hundred, they'll give you two hundred back on your bet.

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Speaker 1: That's how you take care of March.

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Speaker 2: If you are somebody who is potentially looking at the

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Speaker 2: live betting opportunities they've got that I've got Parley Boose

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Speaker 2: as well. Don't sit on the bench down with a

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Speaker 2: hard rock bet app today and let the party get

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Speaker 2: started for the month of March. Let's talk about the Mac,

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Speaker 2: the Other Mac, the Maaac Merrimack and Ciena all right,

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Speaker 2: full disclosure. I am somebody who is from Andover, mass.

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Speaker 2: Merrimack is in North Endover, Mass. My brother pitched for

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Speaker 2: Merrimack for a year, so I know this school very well.

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Speaker 2: I grew up playing basketball in the gym that Merrimack

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Speaker 2: used to call home, and I went to camp every summer.

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Speaker 2: I went to Merrimack College basketball camp. So I have

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Speaker 2: a long history with Merrimack and watching Merrimack. And Merrimack's

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Speaker 2: been very good this year against the spread, and if

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Speaker 2: you want to bet Merrimack to win this game, you can.

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Speaker 2: They're nineteen thirteen and one ATS. They have only been

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Speaker 2: one in four over their last five. Though, as people

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Speaker 2: started to figure out about Merrimack, the numbers started to

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Speaker 2: get a little bit bloated, and they haven't done a

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Speaker 2: great job of covering numbers. They are fourteen seven and

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Speaker 2: one in conference. Sienna is nineteen and fourteen. However, ats

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Speaker 2: this year, they've covered three games in a row. They're

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Speaker 2: four and one over their last five ATS, and they

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Speaker 2: won by fifteen over Fairfield and five over Mount Saint

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Speaker 2: Mary's in the first two rounds of this tournament. Merrimack

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Speaker 2: did not cover against Maris. In their last game, they

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Speaker 2: were laying two and a half and they won by one.

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Speaker 2: They beat Sacred Heart by twenty two as six and

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Speaker 2: a half point favorite. So if you want to lay

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Speaker 2: the three and a half with Merrimack, you can. But

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Speaker 2: I'm a little bit scared just because Merrimack was catching

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Speaker 2: five and a half against Sienna on the road and

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Speaker 2: they won by four. And then they took on Sienna

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Speaker 2: and they laid two and they won by seven. They've

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Speaker 2: played twice, they've covered twice, but Sienna is the hotter

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Speaker 2: of the two teams. So again, I like Merrimack. I'll

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Speaker 2: bet Merrimack personally, but I'm not going to bet at

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Speaker 2: officially here for the show. Instead, I'm gonna look at

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Speaker 2: the total at twenty four and a half. If you

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Speaker 2: guys have watched the Dally Juice, you know how I

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Speaker 2: felt about the Valley Tournament final. It was one twenty

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Speaker 2: four and a half and it was Northern Iowa hitting everything.

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Speaker 1: Now do I think they're gonna hit everything in this game?

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Speaker 1: I don't.

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Speaker 2: But the first matchup against Sienna was one thirty three

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Speaker 2: and a half. It went under by eleven and a

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Speaker 2: half points. The second game it was one thirty three

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Speaker 2: and a half and the game went over by seventeen

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Speaker 2: and a half points. The final was seventy nine to

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Speaker 2: seventy two. Both these teams have played unders here at

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Speaker 2: in the conference tournaments, under by fourteen and a half

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Speaker 2: for Mount Saint Mary's against Sienna and just barely under

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Speaker 2: one thirty seven and a half for Fairfield. For Merrimack

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Speaker 2: against Sacred Heart it was one forty three and a

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Speaker 2: half and they won seventy to forty eight. Went under

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Speaker 2: by twenty five and a half points, and against Mary's

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Speaker 2: it was one twenty eight and a half and it

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Speaker 2: still went under by thirteen and a half points. This

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Speaker 2: is where I think tired legs come in. This is

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Speaker 2: where I think we see tempo come in. It's a

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Speaker 2: sixty seven sixty five win for Merrimack into KEMPOM. So

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Speaker 2: the three and a half would lead you to take

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Speaker 2: the dog according to KEMPOM. But I look at the

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Speaker 2: total at sixty seven sixty five and go okay, that's

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Speaker 2: one thirty two and we're way over the one twenty

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Speaker 2: four and a half.

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Speaker 1: Both these teams play ridiculously slow. There's no debating it.

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Speaker 2: Sienna is three hundred and thirty seventh in average possession length,

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Speaker 2: Merrimack is two hundred and ninety seventh in average possession length. Defensively,

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Speaker 2: Merrimack three hundred and sixty third. They'll make you work.

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Speaker 2: Same thing for Sienna the three hundred and twenty eighth. Okay,

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Speaker 2: But oftentimes when you have two teams that play like this,

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Speaker 2: this to me goes okay. Tired legs, maybe not defensive

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Speaker 2: closeouts that you would expect, and we just see offense

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Speaker 2: with fouls, foul free throws, things that happen late teams

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Speaker 2: extending games. At the end of the game, we see

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Speaker 2: a foul fest trying to keep their season alive. That

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Speaker 2: will just push this thing over. On six one, twenty

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Speaker 2: four and a half, we need both teams to get

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Speaker 2: into the sixties. I don't think that's crazy for a

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Speaker 2: tournament final on esp on national TV, where maybe you

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Speaker 2: get a couple of shots to fall that normally would

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Speaker 2: not fall.

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Speaker 1: Both these teams do shoot the three.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Actually, well, no, Ciano's pretty bad at Actually they're three.

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Speaker 2: On twenty ninth, they only get twenty three percent of

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Speaker 2: their offense from behind the arc, but fifty six point

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Speaker 2: six percent of their offense for Sienna Merrimack does shoot

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Speaker 2: the three pretty well. They're ninety third in the country.

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Speaker 2: They get thirty five percent of their offense from behind

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Speaker 2: the three point line. They shoot it NA about thirty

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Speaker 2: three percent, which is an awesome but they do take

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Speaker 2: a bunch of threes for their offense. So I just

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Speaker 2: think we want hot shooting defense with tired legs, offensive

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Speaker 2: rebounds and putbacks.

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Speaker 1: I think the best play in the game.

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Speaker 2: I like Merrimack, but I think the best play in

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Speaker 2: the game is to come in and take the over

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Speaker 2: in the MAC final, Merrimack in Sienna over one twenty

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Speaker 2: four and a half tonight on ESPN two to punch

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Speaker 2: a ticket. I do like Merrimack laying three and a half.

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Speaker 2: I will be on Merrimack as well to win, but

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Speaker 2: I think the over is a better play because I

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Speaker 2: do think Sienna is going to keep this thing close

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Speaker 2: all the way to the end, so I think fouls

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Speaker 2: and other late game opportunities can push this thing over.

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Speaker 2: I don't think we fly over the same way we

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Speaker 2: did with the Valley Tournament final, but I do think

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Speaker 2: we have a chance to go with the over here

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Speaker 2: as everyone just is going to assume it's going to

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Speaker 2: go under. We get a lower to press number at

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Speaker 2: one twenty four and a half for Merrimack and see

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Speaker 2: Anna so plays four today Merrimack Siena over one twenty

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Speaker 2: four and a half Santa Clara plus seven and a

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Speaker 2: half in the West Coast Conference Final and Horizon Final

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Speaker 2: rights date laying four and a half against Detroit Mercy. Again.

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Speaker 2: Reminder next week not Tuesday, but Wednesday for the n

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Speaker 2: SOUAA Tournament for round one in Round two, big show

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Speaker 2: coming up next week.

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Speaker 1: Make a note of it. We'll drop it.

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Speaker 2: I'll remind you guys on the Daily Juice as well

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Speaker 2: as we head into not Tuesday but Wednesday of next

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Speaker 2: week for the first and second rounds of the NCAA tournaments.

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Speaker 2: MI name is Matt Parol. You guys can follow me

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Speaker 2: because all my socials at Sports Talk Matt. I'll talk

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Speaker 2: to you next Wednesday as the madness begins. Every single week,

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Speaker 2: we'll have coverage for you right here on the Betting

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Speaker 2: Pros YouTube General