Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio.
Speaker 1: Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from I Heart Radio,
Speaker 1: your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation,
Speaker 1: and whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show. Now,
Speaker 1: here's your host, Paul. It's Fantasy Football Weekly. I am
Speaker 1: Paul scharchy In joining me as usual or at least
Speaker 1: often Brian Johnson, and it's it's it was you last
Speaker 1: week for sure, it's you for I think a couple
Speaker 1: more weeks too. And yeah, in our industries, this is
Speaker 1: when people start banking vacation. So yeah, that's what happens.
Speaker 1: What am I I'm I'm doing something wrong. Yeah, you're
Speaker 1: the guy that right, the guy not doing the vacations right. Well,
Speaker 1: it's because guarante league season is is upon us, so
Speaker 1: that's probably a good chunk of it. Anyway, you want
Speaker 1: to work in the fantasy industry, it's pretty much a
Speaker 1: seven day gig, and people celebrate the weekend in season.
Speaker 1: You're like, there's no such thing as the weekend. Now,
Speaker 1: people be like, what are you doing for the weekend? Like, yeah, working,
Speaker 1: that's what I'm doing. That's like the week start. Yes, yeah,
Speaker 1: the week's never end. Yes, this week we're talking about
Speaker 1: high risk, high reward players. These are players with big upside,
Speaker 1: big downside, and the players that can make or break
Speaker 1: your roster. We're gonna identify for each of us a
Speaker 1: player in each position we believe represents high risk, high reward.
Speaker 1: But before we get into the specific players in in redraft,
Speaker 1: how many of these kinds of players do you want
Speaker 1: on your team? What is your risk profile look like?
Speaker 1: You know, if you took nothing but these players, it's
Speaker 1: probably gonna blow up on you because there's too much
Speaker 1: risk that you put onto your roster. It's like hitting
Speaker 1: basically right, Yeah, yeah, you know, maybe they all work
Speaker 1: out brilliantly, or maybe you can get. So we're gonna
Speaker 1: give out I'm giving out four, you're giving out for
Speaker 1: We're gonna give out eight. If you put six of
Speaker 1: the eight on your roster, you're probably it's probably not
Speaker 1: gonna work out. If you can't get, you're not gonna
Speaker 1: get six out of six or five out of six,
Speaker 1: And a couple of those guys are gonna torpedo. But
Speaker 1: what do you think is the right kind of answer
Speaker 1: with your willingness to put these high risk high reward
Speaker 1: players on roster twenty percent. You gotta have some upside,
Speaker 1: You gotta swing for the fences. Certain positions you certainly
Speaker 1: don't want to take high risk or high risk players
Speaker 1: from the same team, like quarterback wide receiver, because are
Speaker 1: if that quarterback goes down, he's taking the receiver with them.
Speaker 1: That's definitely more of a best ball mentality you can
Speaker 1: afford when you're not setting your lineup when the you
Speaker 1: know it's getting set. I got a quarterback receiver combo,
Speaker 1: I'll be telling right about. Yeah, you have to say
Speaker 1: which one you would if if you were forced to
Speaker 1: pick one, who who would be the quarterback? To me?
Speaker 1: Is the position where I'm most willing to take chances
Speaker 1: because in a one quarterback league you can get another
Speaker 1: quarterback if it doesn't work out for your high risk guy.
Speaker 1: Is there's somebody to pivot to that you can find
Speaker 1: more easily in single quarterback And so for me, that's
Speaker 1: the one. You know, if if I were to id
Speaker 1: to just positionally say where am I going to put
Speaker 1: my risk? I love putting risk into high upside quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: Uh to that point, let's use that as our as
Speaker 1: our starting off point. Who is your high risk, high
Speaker 1: reward quarterback. Well, you can tell me if you'd like
Speaker 1: to take the chance on Aaron Rodgers, who getting drafted
Speaker 1: around QB twelve thirteen, definitely later than previous season. The
Speaker 1: last decade he hasn't gone that lot, but that's still
Speaker 1: kind of a significant investment based on how deep quarterback
Speaker 1: is again just like last year, and the risk with
Speaker 1: Rodgers is, really he has his worst season as a pro,
Speaker 1: and why would that happen outside of his age. I
Speaker 1: don't think I'm not really factoring his age as much here,
Speaker 1: but going back to Davante Adams was his leading wide
Speaker 1: receiver he gone from. Going back to eleven, he was
Speaker 1: either Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb, and he had both
Speaker 1: of them in their prime, so he had two amazing options.
Speaker 1: In ten. Will go back that for it was Greg
Speaker 1: jennings Head twelve hundred plus yards and twelve touchdowns. I
Speaker 1: think you get where I'm going with this, DoD the
Speaker 1: Packers have a wide receiver on any of those players
Speaker 1: level right now, it doesn't appear to be unless Christian
Speaker 1: Watson turns out to be a great receiver or Alan Lazard,
Speaker 1: which I'm not buying into that. All Art is not
Speaker 1: a great receiver, no, and Sammy Watkins certainly not reliable.
Speaker 1: He he'ld be great week one. We know that for sure.
Speaker 1: But that's about it. And yeah, they have Randall cop
Speaker 1: but he's now a hundred years old in football years.
Speaker 1: So that's the risk and the reward is you know,
Speaker 1: Rogers works with what he's got and he has another
Speaker 1: typical four thousand yard, forty touchdown season, which is a
Speaker 1: bar in at quarterback twelve. But uh, I'm leaning he's
Speaker 1: more risky than a reward e. I know that's not
Speaker 1: a word, but so I'm kind of out on Rogers.
Speaker 1: But there is sil reward there because he is one
Speaker 1: of the most talented quarterbacks in NFL history. But what's
Speaker 1: the downside that he brings? If you numerically give me
Speaker 1: give me your worst. You know, if he plays, if
Speaker 1: he plays all seventeen games, where do you think his
Speaker 1: downside lines statistically for Aaron Rodgers. You know, it's a
Speaker 1: down here for him. If he's at thirty touchdowns, that
Speaker 1: would be yards in Green Bay. But that's a good
Speaker 1: defense and they got two very good running backs. Granted,
Speaker 1: Inner Jones is a good receiving back, but they become
Speaker 1: a you know, a run heavier, run heavier team. They've
Speaker 1: always been passed first, basically Roger's whole career. So see
Speaker 1: how it plays out. But I'm kind of I'm kind
Speaker 1: of avoiding Rogers, but there is still upside there, my
Speaker 1: high risk, high reward quarterback. And I almost Jalen Hurts here,
Speaker 1: but I didn't just because I think he's more of
Speaker 1: a known quantity than Trey Lance, who could go the
Speaker 1: pendulum swing on tray Lance, I think is bigger than
Speaker 1: any order back in this year's fantasy draft. So the
Speaker 1: risk side of Trey Lance just the nineteen college starts.
Speaker 1: He had the one full game last year when he
Speaker 1: had to fill in for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo, and
Speaker 1: that was a disheartening effort that saw San Francisco score
Speaker 1: just ten points against the Cardinals. In that game. With
Speaker 1: Trey Lance at the helm, you've got the Deebo Samuel
Speaker 1: possible holdout working against Trey Lance. And it's very possible
Speaker 1: that Tray Lance just isn't a very good quarterback or
Speaker 1: isn't a very good passer at this level. We don't
Speaker 1: know yet. He could be benched for Jimmy Garoppolo. His
Speaker 1: he might not even be the starter week one if
Speaker 1: if he struggles all preseason, Garoppolo comes in and plays
Speaker 1: all right. The downside on Trey Lance is literally no
Speaker 1: fantasy points all year. Yeah, I mean, for those who
Speaker 1: don't know, he's a small school quarterback north to State.
Speaker 1: Steve McNair was a small school quarterback Alcorn State. Call that,
Speaker 1: and he turned out at right. But there's a risk
Speaker 1: in that, you know, But I don't find that too much.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about the reward for tray Lance. He's got
Speaker 1: top five level upside if everything comes together. A lot
Speaker 1: of it is because of his unbelievable rushing ability. He
Speaker 1: brings to the table a rushing skill set that isn't
Speaker 1: it is equivalent roughly to Jalen Hurts. Maybe not quite
Speaker 1: at the Lamar Jackson level of elusiveness, but he probably
Speaker 1: has more just straight line speed. He is fast, and
Speaker 1: in that one full game last year that tray Lance played,
Speaker 1: they gave him eleven designed runs and then he scrambled
Speaker 1: five more times for ninety rushing yards in his one
Speaker 1: full start. And the fact that Kyle Shanahan, who obviously
Speaker 1: never runs. Jimmy Garoppolo gave him eleven designed runs. Very
Speaker 1: very promising for Tray Lance as a runner on a
Speaker 1: very small set sample sample set of just that one
Speaker 1: game to a Lance has a monster arm that can
Speaker 1: unlock it downfield passing attack that Jimmy Garoppolo has been
Speaker 1: totally unable to do. Garoppolo's worst feature as an NFL
Speaker 1: quarterbacks is downfield passing. This might be Trey Lance's best
Speaker 1: feature downfield passing. He could have some deep connections that
Speaker 1: can produce massive fantasy events. And then, lastly, the other
Speaker 1: part of the rewards in here for Trey Lances, just
Speaker 1: get the ball in the hands of guys like Deebo Samuel,
Speaker 1: George Kittle, and Brandon are you but hopefully not on handoffs.
Speaker 1: Hopefully don't. That's all right? Throw yes, specifically for Deebo Samuel. Um,
Speaker 1: you roll all that together. If he can rush for
Speaker 1: nine yards like he did in this one game, Um,
Speaker 1: and he can be throwing deep downfield passes, you get
Speaker 1: a connection or to a game and next thing you know,
Speaker 1: you're like two or fifty yards, a couple of touchdowns
Speaker 1: through the air and ninety brushing yards and you know
Speaker 1: the period of rushing touchdown and now Trey Lance is
Speaker 1: in the conversation for a top five scoring fan see quarterback.
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I like the upside there for sure.
Speaker 1: Let's go to our high risk, high reward running backs.
Speaker 1: Who is your running back, Brian, one of your about
Speaker 1: the ten years I've known you. One of the biggest
Speaker 1: man crushes you've had in uh over the last decade
Speaker 1: Ezekiel Elliott, who is now going as RB sixteen, which
Speaker 1: is way later than previous years. Um. And the risk
Speaker 1: there is you get the Zeke from the last two
Speaker 1: seasons who finished and eighteenth in Fantasy points per game.
Speaker 1: Uh Now, you only missed two games during that span.
Speaker 1: He's been durable, even though he's been banged up. But
Speaker 1: when your points per game are that low, it almost
Speaker 1: hurts you more than it helps you. So but the
Speaker 1: market is adjusted again going to RB sixteen, he was
Speaker 1: a couple of years ago he was maybe the RB one,
Speaker 1: and then he was RB ten last year. Uh So
Speaker 1: I think it's a great time to buy the dip
Speaker 1: because of the rewards. You get vintage Zeke from nineteen
Speaker 1: back to his rookie year, who he kind of looked
Speaker 1: like early on last season, he had a bad Week one.
Speaker 1: Uh he finished his RB forty five without he had
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay like top rush defense in the league. Then
Speaker 1: after that week to RB seven, then RB one, RB six,
Speaker 1: RB seven in week five, then in Week six he
Speaker 1: was RB fifteen. But that's when he got hurt, and
Speaker 1: not hurt enough to miss games, but he was banged
Speaker 1: up for the duration of the season with ankle knee issues.
Speaker 1: Before he was injured, though, he was averaging more than
Speaker 1: five yards per carry and that's with o line issues
Speaker 1: that Dallas was having a bunch of them last year,
Speaker 1: whether it was injury or suspension. Um but hopefully those
Speaker 1: are cleared up. And offseason reports for Zeke had been
Speaker 1: very positive, saying he's arguably in the bust. I haven't
Speaker 1: seen any topless photos yet, but he should be healthy'll
Speaker 1: be out there, I'm sure. Uh yeah, they'll be flashing
Speaker 1: the abs for sure, but uh, I don't know. At
Speaker 1: RB sixteen, I think he could return to that top
Speaker 1: five running back for him, So I'm leaning more to
Speaker 1: the reward side that uh I like for Zeke this
Speaker 1: here more so than the risk. Tony Pollard is always
Speaker 1: there and college is good. And we've talked you and
Speaker 1: I've talked a lot about this. We love Pollard, we
Speaker 1: love Pollard, and Pollard isn't going anywhere, and I think
Speaker 1: that provides it just to me, that limits the ceiling.
Speaker 1: But he's not going anywhere either with how much money
Speaker 1: they're paying him, and they almost have to justify that
Speaker 1: ridiculous contract. And they've talked about using Pollard more as
Speaker 1: a slot receiver, so we might see them both on
Speaker 1: the field. That stuff never pans out. Man, all the
Speaker 1: all the preseason playing out of position talk of the
Speaker 1: time does not come to fruition. You know, the Cordell
Speaker 1: Patterson's of the world. That's rare, super rare. By the way,
Speaker 1: do you hear this? Yeah, who's turned off his position?
Speaker 1: His dual position. They're just going running back in Corderell
Speaker 1: Patterson And I've done that for all all players don't
Speaker 1: know because they you know, I remember Taysom Hill was
Speaker 1: quarterback tight end. The most famous was Marcus Colston. Why
Speaker 1: does he yes? That was he was a cheap code
Speaker 1: for sure, like six whenever that was. It's um, I
Speaker 1: I'm cool with it, especially when you're making that call.
Speaker 1: Now you know, the league's got time to adapt, you know,
Speaker 1: he has. We're calling he's playing running back. He is.
Speaker 1: He's playing running back mostly. And the drafted Drake brought
Speaker 1: in Brian Edwards, Audentates and they got a couple of
Speaker 1: other guys and you know, almost every week Kyle Pitts
Speaker 1: is essentially a wide receiver. So yes, yeah, c P
Speaker 1: eighty four is a running back. My high risk, ky
Speaker 1: reward running back is Cam Acres. Let's start with the
Speaker 1: risk side on Cam Acers. No NFL running back has
Speaker 1: had a successful return from a torn achilles and by successful,
Speaker 1: I mean like you're back to most of what you
Speaker 1: were before. In almost every case, you don't even get
Speaker 1: close to what you were before, and in many cases
Speaker 1: you're completely out of the league. Acres will try to
Speaker 1: become the first ever running back to do it. And
Speaker 1: I've touched on Acres before in different conversations that we've had,
Speaker 1: but I think i've really I'm really going to drill
Speaker 1: down on on the risk and reward side for Acres now.
Speaker 1: Upon returning last year, his play was completely uninspiring. And
Speaker 1: you know, granted it was a quick return on a
Speaker 1: devastating injury, but just hear me out. His yards per
Speaker 1: carry in the four games that he had at the
Speaker 1: end of the year after the Achilles injury was zero
Speaker 1: point six yards per carry three point two, two point zero,
Speaker 1: three point seven and one point six. I think that
Speaker 1: was five games. That nets out to an average of
Speaker 1: two point four yards per carry, and his PFF grade
Speaker 1: through the playoffs was forty four. Not good. Six months later,
Speaker 1: we presume that cam Akers is going to be a
Speaker 1: healthier and better runner, but history suggests that's not a
Speaker 1: safe assumption whatsoever. The historic best case that I can
Speaker 1: find on an achilles on the next year back is
Speaker 1: Edgar Bennett, who had a two touchdown, six hundred rushing
Speaker 1: yard game season in three and a half yards per carry,
Speaker 1: and then he quit football. He knew he was cooked. Cardenal, Nope,
Speaker 1: I want to try again. Packers, Packers Um. A number
Speaker 1: of other promising runners have had their careers completely halted
Speaker 1: by the Achilles. Lendel White not that long ago. Mickel
Speaker 1: was sure you remember that name, Lions. He had a
Speaker 1: gigantic rookie year and everybody's like year, Dude's gonna be great,
Speaker 1: and then uh he had the torn achilles. Uh. Andre Brown.
Speaker 1: You might remember Brian in particular New York Giants had
Speaker 1: a big rookie season. He was another I almost positive rookie,
Speaker 1: and he never played again, never played again. So you're
Speaker 1: downside with cam Akers is it's dramatic. It could be potential,
Speaker 1: like way lower than anybody's talking about five yards two touchdowns,
Speaker 1: you know, very very light use, uh, losing his job.
Speaker 1: It's it could be bad. I'm not going to really
Speaker 1: suggest that there's retirement downside, but that's not a zero
Speaker 1: percent chance either. Because this injury, the Achilles injury, people
Speaker 1: have retired on it in the past. Now you might say,
Speaker 1: Met and I did a little digging on this Achilles bit.
Speaker 1: With medically, we've come so far that in the era
Speaker 1: of Edgar Bennett twenty years ago, who cares. But it
Speaker 1: turns out this injury just doesn't have that much advancements
Speaker 1: in it. It just sort of is what it is.
Speaker 1: We reattached the tendon and we go um. The only
Speaker 1: thing that medicine has done is it allowed can makers
Speaker 1: to come back faster, but not necessarily better. So you're
Speaker 1: downside with Acres is extremely low. Let's talk upside. He's
Speaker 1: the presumed starter for a high functioning offense with one
Speaker 1: of the best head coaches in the game. There's that, Um,
Speaker 1: Sean mcveigh's awesome in In mcveigh's tenure, going back to seventeen,
Speaker 1: Rams running backs have averaged as a group, all of
Speaker 1: them together. Their average season for the Rams running backs
Speaker 1: is two thousand, fifty yards and eighteen touchdowns. Yeah, but
Speaker 1: that's a lot of prime. There's a couple of there's
Speaker 1: a couple of years of prime tied Gurley in there,
Speaker 1: but there's also a couple of years of there was
Speaker 1: the season after that where he felt the cliff and
Speaker 1: didn't have anybody else, and there's been some in last
Speaker 1: season was a down year for their runners too. If
Speaker 1: Acres is gonna get if Acres comes back well enough
Speaker 1: to earn say seventy of the workload on two thousand
Speaker 1: yards and eighteen touchdowns, okay, well I'm in. That's four
Speaker 1: yards and twelve and a half touchdowns, So you know
Speaker 1: I'm in at that point, Um, And the worst any
Speaker 1: Sean McVeigh team has ever finished in yards or points
Speaker 1: is twelve and they average seventh in points and seventh
Speaker 1: and yards. He just that offense is almost certainly going
Speaker 1: to be good, and he'd be the presumed lead running
Speaker 1: back because there isn't that much else. Darryl Henderson proved
Speaker 1: him self last year to be very ordinary and fifth
Speaker 1: round rookie Hirron Williams does not look like a workhorse back. No,
Speaker 1: he's more of a receiving threat. And Henderson grant he
Speaker 1: was injured early and came back and was he came
Speaker 1: back sooner than most expected for the playoff run too so,
Speaker 1: and his injury was not as severe as a torn achilles.
Speaker 1: And Henderson was not even a reliable week week, week
Speaker 1: to week starter. And then this a very good, a
Speaker 1: super Bowl caliber Rams offense last year. So we're all
Speaker 1: that together. You've got a lot of You've got a
Speaker 1: ton of risk and a ton of reward for cam Akers.
Speaker 1: So in my drafting experience so far, you'll you'll find
Speaker 1: Acres and Zeke pretty much right, mecancany who take Zeke
Speaker 1: all the way? No way do I risk the torn achilles.
Speaker 1: Let's take a break, and when we come back, let's
Speaker 1: talk about our high risk, high reward wide receivers and
Speaker 1: tight ends. His Fantasy Football Weekly continues Welcome back Fantasy
Speaker 1: Football Weekly Paul Charting, Brian Johnson reminder. Four ways to
Speaker 1: play at Guillotine Leagues dot com. You can join a
Speaker 1: private league with your friends between eight and eighteen people.
Speaker 1: More players you have, the longer the fund goes on
Speaker 1: farther you go into the season. Public leagues play for cash,
Speaker 1: public contests guillotean Leagues dot com. Uh, if you want
Speaker 1: to play high stakes super Chop, We've got a fifteen
Speaker 1: thousand dollar grand prize option at super Chop at Guillotine
Speaker 1: leagues dot com. And then the new way to play.
Speaker 1: If you'd never want to get chopped, do you want
Speaker 1: to make sure you play all season long Zombie mode
Speaker 1: when instead of getting chopped, you become a zombie joined
Speaker 1: the zombie Horde trying to take down the human survivors.
Speaker 1: I'm excited to try that. Yes, you can't wait to
Speaker 1: try it? All right, Let's let's move on to our
Speaker 1: high risk, high reward wide receivers. Who are you starting with?
Speaker 1: I got lacks the Los Angeles Chargers Mike Williams, who
Speaker 1: in best Ball has climbed up to wide receiver thirteen
Speaker 1: and ADP, which is very high. That's also very best ball.
Speaker 1: He's always been that guy high risk, high reward output
Speaker 1: on a game by game basis. Yeah, but I still
Speaker 1: think in redraft you'll see him at least inside the
Speaker 1: top fifteen, just based on his upside, which we'll get to.
Speaker 1: But uh, let's start with the risk, and the risk
Speaker 1: is you get the version of Mike Williams who averaged
Speaker 1: three catches for thirty seven scoreless yards and eight of
Speaker 1: his sixteen games last year. Yeah, he was just a
Speaker 1: killer if you had him starting in your starting lineup
Speaker 1: and a disaster and guillotine leagues by the way, because
Speaker 1: when he does, he does hard. Next thing, you know,
Speaker 1: you're chopped. And yeah, it almost seems like a lot
Speaker 1: of his games alternated from big game, so you're like, oh,
Speaker 1: I gotta start him this week and then he kills you.
Speaker 1: But but the reward is is, uh, he serves Keenan
Speaker 1: Allen as the wide receiver one in l A and
Speaker 1: is a top five Fantasy wide receiver because in the
Speaker 1: other eight games he played last year he scored at
Speaker 1: least once, he had multiple multiple touchdown games h end
Speaker 1: or top two hundred yards and the other half games
Speaker 1: he played, so he's kind of a it's a fifty.
Speaker 1: It's a coin flip of a player, but it's an
Speaker 1: elite offense with one of the best quarterbacks in the
Speaker 1: game up and coming. Him young quarterback they do like,
Speaker 1: and they paid him a lot of money too. They
Speaker 1: extended him, so some people thought they're gonna let him
Speaker 1: walk the Chargers, but uh, they did renew his contract. Um.
Speaker 1: There is competition though for targets. They like Joshua Palmer,
Speaker 1: uh fair amount. He's might he might be my number
Speaker 1: one sleeper this year. You're gonna hear me talking about
Speaker 1: him a lot. I like his prospects for his December.
Speaker 1: His December was way better than most people remember. And
Speaker 1: if that's a harbinger of this season to come, Palmer
Speaker 1: is is gonna be a really sneaky pick for people.
Speaker 1: So for me, I think that the risk still kind
Speaker 1: of outweighs the reward and that I don't think Keenan
Speaker 1: Allen is washed by any means. You know, Austin Ekel
Speaker 1: or Asaiah Spiller are going to soak up some targets
Speaker 1: par Donald Parham and I'm so mad they brought in Gerald.
Speaker 1: Everybody still think Parum could be the top title. I
Speaker 1: don't think the season is gonna start that way, but uh,
Speaker 1: for me, the asking price is too high right now.
Speaker 1: For Williams, I might I'll take some flyers in best
Speaker 1: ball and I have, but when it comes to re draft,
Speaker 1: on out. So I see him dominate for the majority
Speaker 1: of the season, not not a split. Talked about this
Speaker 1: on a previous Fantasy Football Weekly is about Mike Williams.
Speaker 1: I don't like guys that had one really good season
Speaker 1: and it was the season in which they got paid
Speaker 1: their contract or season. Was there one season where it
Speaker 1: all seemed to come together and it Maybe Williams is
Speaker 1: young enough. It could be that that season is exactly
Speaker 1: who's going to be going forward, at which point he
Speaker 1: would he'd Mike Williams would be worth this draft spot
Speaker 1: or he got paid. I he's fat and happy, and uh,
Speaker 1: you know, I thought he would have missed more games.
Speaker 1: We've only missed a handful over the last three years.
Speaker 1: But he's always been on the report and like, your
Speaker 1: shocked that he's actually playing, Uh come game day, So yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm out. My high risk, high reward wide receiver is
Speaker 1: dk Metcalf. Let's talk about the risks first, and it's
Speaker 1: obvious what the big risk is here his quarterbacks. We
Speaker 1: don't know that there is a functional passer on the
Speaker 1: Seahawks roster. There's Drew Lock, there's Geno Smith. Can they
Speaker 1: get any can those two really power consistent production to
Speaker 1: any wide receive? And even if they trade for Baker Mayfield,
Speaker 1: which has kind of been a swirling rumor that it's
Speaker 1: not that much of an upgrade, in my opinion, I
Speaker 1: think he'd be. It would be I don't know about
Speaker 1: a massive that would be on the reward side of
Speaker 1: the risk reward coin. The The other part of the
Speaker 1: risk with DK Metcalf is, you know, even with good quarterbacking,
Speaker 1: dud games have always plagued Metcalf and he's viewed large
Speaker 1: as a touchdown dependent wide receiver because he is. He's
Speaker 1: failed to score in exactly half his games, which is
Speaker 1: actually pretty good. The fact that he has scored in
Speaker 1: half of his games and a young career is very good. Um,
Speaker 1: but in those non scoring games, he averages being wide
Speaker 1: receiver fifty four at nine PPR points. That hurts. That hurts.
Speaker 1: So what happens if his touchdowns dry up? With bad quarterbacking?
Speaker 1: Gino Smith? His career he is a zero point eight
Speaker 1: touchdown passes per game quarterback zero point eight. Drew Lock's
Speaker 1: career is exactly a one touchdown per game career. So
Speaker 1: if if I'm telling you when Dk Metcalf doesn't score,
Speaker 1: he's usually wide receiver fifty four and his court, his
Speaker 1: touchdown numbers probably reverse and go far fewer. With Gino
Speaker 1: Smith and Drew Lock, that's some real risk for DK Metcalf.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about the reward side. Gino Smith fed Metcalf
Speaker 1: in his games as a starter last year. Medcalf was
Speaker 1: a top ten wide receiver three times in Smith's three
Speaker 1: and a half game appearances. You would never have guessed it.
Speaker 1: Smith's play was actually competent. He had the exact same
Speaker 1: PF grade in his three and a half games. He
Speaker 1: had the exact same PF grade as Russell Wilson last year.
Speaker 1: I think if the Seahawks stand pat at quarterback with
Speaker 1: with Smith and Lock, I think Smith and Smith the
Speaker 1: job in Week one. I do too. Um, Seattle could
Speaker 1: trade for a better quarterback. You know you mentioned Baker Mayfield.
Speaker 1: It could be Jimmy Garoppolo, although I think it's unlikely
Speaker 1: that they would trade in division, but um, it would
Speaker 1: probably Baker Mayfield. Maybe Drew Lock gets better with different
Speaker 1: coaching that could provide some Maybe there's a glimmer of
Speaker 1: upside for Drew Lock, but I don't think that's the case.
Speaker 1: And there's this reason for reward as well for DK Metcalf.
Speaker 1: He's just a freaking beast who's God given abilities can
Speaker 1: keep him Fantasy relevant even with in consistent quarterbacking. He's
Speaker 1: just a special player. He still can't do the three
Speaker 1: cone drill though, God forbid. So there's your risk reward
Speaker 1: on DK Metcalf. Let's go to your risk reward. Tight
Speaker 1: End Detroit's t J. Hockenson, who is going around tight
Speaker 1: Ends seven right now. Uh. He was a Doctor Jekyll
Speaker 1: and Mr Hyde last year for sure, And I want
Speaker 1: to make sure you get this right. Mr Hyde is
Speaker 1: like the evil side of that Dctor Jekyll is the
Speaker 1: good guy, right. I got my notes, But that's what
Speaker 1: I figured. It's been a while since i've I've never
Speaker 1: read it. I don't think I have either, but I
Speaker 1: might have seen the play or I don't know. Anyway,
Speaker 1: you get the risk is you get the Mr Hyde
Speaker 1: side of t J. Hogginsen In half of his games played,
Speaker 1: he averaged three point three catches for twenty nine scoreless yards.
Speaker 1: And to make matters worse, he also missed five games.
Speaker 1: So that's he's somewhat injury prone. Um. He did play
Speaker 1: all sixteen games in twenty but he did miss four
Speaker 1: games his rookie year in uh. But still so twelve
Speaker 1: games play last year half, we're absolute garbage killed you.
Speaker 1: He was the guy I feel like we talked about
Speaker 1: a lot on shop as one of the top chop
Speaker 1: tight ends a lot uh, whether he was injured or
Speaker 1: having a bad game, but the reward is you get
Speaker 1: the Dr Jekyl side who we saw primarily early on
Speaker 1: in the year UM, which was kind of odd because
Speaker 1: there was more competition for targets then later in the season.
Speaker 1: But the receivers are still up right then. But after
Speaker 1: the first three weeks we were talking about him is
Speaker 1: like the top is he's gonna be the tight end
Speaker 1: one one. Uh. He in his in those six games played,
Speaker 1: the other six games played, he scored end or top
Speaker 1: seventy yards and all of them And that's great production.
Speaker 1: And if you get that on a consistent basis at
Speaker 1: tight end seven right now, uh, going multiple rounds after
Speaker 1: the Darren Wallers, the George Kittles, and the Darren Uh.
Speaker 1: Darren Schultz is of the world, not not Darren Schultz.
Speaker 1: Dalton shows my bad. Uh. That's that's a huge payoff.
Speaker 1: But for me, again, it's I feel like most of
Speaker 1: my players outside his Zeke, I think the risk kind
Speaker 1: of outweighs the reward for me, especially after they've drafted
Speaker 1: James and Williams at wide receiver, and though he might
Speaker 1: not be ready to start Week one, I think there's
Speaker 1: just a ton of competition for targets. And I don't
Speaker 1: think we're gonna see that Mr Hyde version of Hockinson
Speaker 1: as much as the Doctor jekylls. You won't see the
Speaker 1: Dr Jacky side. I really shouldn't have gone with. The
Speaker 1: problem is the way you said him is the opposite
Speaker 1: way that you did him, and whatever it's it is,
Speaker 1: it's confusing. That's what I'm saying. We know what you're
Speaker 1: talking about. My high rose, high reward tight end is
Speaker 1: George Kittle. Now your risk side goes like this. He's
Speaker 1: never topped six touchdowns in a season. Pat Fryarmouth had
Speaker 1: seven as a rookie last year, so he's never been
Speaker 1: a touchdown score, reliable touchdown score. A lot of injuries
Speaker 1: in three straight years, and I played through a lot
Speaker 1: of the injuries last year, but he clearly looked limited
Speaker 1: in a lot of his games. People starting to call
Speaker 1: him George Brittle. There's something to do that, something to that? Uh,
Speaker 1: And then I wouldn't say to his face though, that's
Speaker 1: for sure, I wouldn't either then dud games or another
Speaker 1: problem for George Kittle. He played fourteen games last year
Speaker 1: out of the seventeen eleven of his fourteen games he
Speaker 1: earned single digit PPR points last year for George Kettle.
Speaker 1: And the other risk factor is Trey Lance. What if
Speaker 1: what if Tray Lance doesn't come along? You know, we
Speaker 1: we outlined Trey Lancer earlier. I told you, I told
Speaker 1: you had to receiver quarterback Combo coming here's the receiver
Speaker 1: tight end now presumably and especially if they trade Jimmy
Speaker 1: Garoppolo and they just put all their chips in on
Speaker 1: Trey Lance and what if he what if you bust? Then?
Speaker 1: What now the risk? That's the risk side, the reward
Speaker 1: side for George Kittle. Quickly on the side still um
Speaker 1: and maybe more it's it's great for reality football, but
Speaker 1: it's a curse and fantasy football. He's such a good blocker.
Speaker 1: And if you say, if they they draw up all
Speaker 1: these designed runs for Trey Lance, we're gonna see a
Speaker 1: ton of blocking by Kittle, that could be it could
Speaker 1: be good. Point alright, So the rewards one of the
Speaker 1: great yard after catch tight ends in recent memory. He
Speaker 1: is so good after the catch. In George Kittle's last
Speaker 1: full healthy season, he was fifth in the entire league
Speaker 1: including wide receivers, in yards after catch at seven and
Speaker 1: a half per Probably if you took a poll of
Speaker 1: defensive backs, even linebackers, he's the top tight end. You
Speaker 1: don't want to see. It could be. Uh. He also
Speaker 1: finished fourth overall and catch percentage in nineteen, again his
Speaker 1: last full healthy season for George Kittle. If Deebo Samuel
Speaker 1: gets himself out of out of San Francisco, which is possible,
Speaker 1: I don't think it will happen, but it's possible. Kittle's
Speaker 1: target chair could vault up as well. And he is
Speaker 1: capable of amazing games. Last year he had a two
Speaker 1: game stretch. It's like Week ten eleven with these are
Speaker 1: two games, these are two game numbers. Twenty seven targets,
Speaker 1: twenty two receptions, three hundred thirty two yards and three
Speaker 1: touchdowns act to back gigantic games. And if what if
Speaker 1: Trey Lances? What if Trey Lance is great? What if
Speaker 1: he's got the big arm and he's that big arm
Speaker 1: is opening up the middle of the field for a
Speaker 1: great tight end A little bit like Patrick Mahomes's arm
Speaker 1: strength helped unlock Travis Kelsey. And I'm not saying Trey
Speaker 1: Lance can be Patrick Mahomes, but just from an armed
Speaker 1: strength standpoint, only Mahomes ability to heave those deep down
Speaker 1: field passes too well. Variety of players, mostly Tyreek Hill,
Speaker 1: really did help open up the field for Travis Kelsey,
Speaker 1: and it could do Trey Lance. If that big arm
Speaker 1: is working, that could happen for George Kettle too. I'm
Speaker 1: very intrigued to see how this San Francisco offense plays out.
Speaker 1: Quite interesting. It's so tempting to invest in him, so tempting.
Speaker 1: Um I kind of I kind of like doing a
Speaker 1: if Garoppolo stays and by if Garopolo does stay, that
Speaker 1: makes Kittle a lot safer because we already know that
Speaker 1: we already know that what key that he can be
Speaker 1: a very good fantasy tight end in a Garoppolo led offense.
Speaker 1: If he's still there, I do there's something to be
Speaker 1: said for doing a Trey Lance George Kittle combo draft.
Speaker 1: This is somewhat out of context with just another team.
Speaker 1: I can't wait to watch is uh Atlanta with Mariota,
Speaker 1: see if he can revive his career and Kyle Pitts
Speaker 1: of course, and we mentioned Cordarell Patterson earlier. Drake Wondon
Speaker 1: has some promise. Who leads the team in rushing yards.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's gonna be the rookie l gear
Speaker 1: Proley Patterson. I mean it should be the Patterson then
Speaker 1: you know, then who knows? I mean, he's hasn't been
Speaker 1: partaking in mini camp. They're just trying to keep him fresh.
Speaker 1: That's kind of they're saying. That's why he fell off.
Speaker 1: He just wasn't used to being a running back. Now
Speaker 1: they're trying to ramp him up. Is a durance and
Speaker 1: all that we'll see, but uh, I can't wait to
Speaker 1: see that non zero chance it's Mariotta. Oh, there's definitely
Speaker 1: remember Ryan Fitzpatrick lead the Dolphins in rushing like to
Speaker 1: two years ago. Well, I'm sure Michael Vick led the
Speaker 1: no doubt, it wouldn't be the first time in the
Speaker 1: quarterback kick down there exactly. UM, all right, thank you
Speaker 1: for listening to Fantasy Football Weekly. We'll be back next week.
Speaker 1: And as a reminder, we're now about one month away
Speaker 1: from the full the full two hour version of Fantasy
Speaker 1: Football Weekly, full Crew in studio. That'll be great, can't wait.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening, everybody, and especially thanks to those who
Speaker 1: take the time to rate everyview and subscribe Fantasy Football Weekly.
Speaker 1: Fantasy Football Weekly is a production of I Heart Radio.
Speaker 1: For more podcasts from my Heart Radio, visit the i
Speaker 1: Heart Radio app, Apple podcast, or wherever you listen to
Speaker 1: your favorite shows. Some s FI far