1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:14,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ketchas live weekdays at noon 3 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:17,440 Speaker 1: and five pm Eastern on Apple Cockley and Android Auto 4 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 5 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:24,200 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,040 --> 00:00:28,880 Speaker 2: President Trump just concluding answering some questions from reporters at 7 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:32,000 Speaker 2: the White House in the East Room for a meeting 8 00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:34,360 Speaker 2: of the Trump Kennedy Center Board. Thank you for being 9 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 2: with us on Bloomberg TV and radio. This is Balance 10 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:39,479 Speaker 2: of Power and I'm Kaylee Lynes. No surprise that the 11 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:41,920 Speaker 2: President faced a number of questions. They're pertaining to the 12 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 2: war with Iran, which is now in its third week. 13 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:47,280 Speaker 2: The President suggesting that Iran wants to make a deal, 14 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:50,519 Speaker 2: that they are talking to quote our people, though he 15 00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:52,919 Speaker 2: also said it is not clear who the leadership is 16 00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 2: in Iran at this point. He says, we don't know 17 00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 2: who Iran's leader is. He also said he does not 18 00:00:57,360 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 2: know if the new Supreme Leader, Mushtaba Kamane Hamane, of course, 19 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:04,360 Speaker 2: the son of the late Ayatola, is dead or not. 20 00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:04,880 Speaker 3: He said. 21 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:07,399 Speaker 2: People are saying he may have lost his leg or 22 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:11,319 Speaker 2: is dead. No confirmation from the President either way on 23 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:13,199 Speaker 2: that is. He also spent a good deal of time 24 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:15,440 Speaker 2: talking about the straight of Horror moves after calling on 25 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 2: other world powers to help the US and reopening the strait. 26 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:21,720 Speaker 2: He says that it takes two to tango on the 27 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 2: straight of Horror moves and that ships need to want 28 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:25,880 Speaker 2: to go through, they need to feel safe doing so. 29 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:28,319 Speaker 2: He thinks the ships would be okay to pass at 30 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:30,280 Speaker 2: this point, and he thinks the straight of Hormus will 31 00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:32,199 Speaker 2: get going quote very soon. 32 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:32,880 Speaker 3: Now. 33 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 2: Also interesting that the President said he will be putting 34 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:37,280 Speaker 2: out a list of countries who are willing to help 35 00:01:37,319 --> 00:01:39,240 Speaker 2: on the straight of her moves and those who are 36 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 2: not going to be cooperating nations. He said that he 37 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:45,119 Speaker 2: would not be very happy with though he did say, 38 00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 2: and this is a quote, we don't need them, going 39 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:49,520 Speaker 2: on to say that the US has all the oil 40 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:52,559 Speaker 2: it needs, and he said that when this war is over, 41 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:55,040 Speaker 2: oil prices are going to go down very rapidly. Of 42 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:56,760 Speaker 2: course that is not the case now. We are down 43 00:01:56,760 --> 00:01:59,040 Speaker 2: on the day, but Brent is still up over one 44 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 2: hundred dollars a barrel. So we want to get more 45 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:03,680 Speaker 2: on the latest from President Trump. Now as we go 46 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:05,920 Speaker 2: live to the north lawne of the White House, where 47 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:09,680 Speaker 2: we find Bloomberg Washington correspondent Tyler Kendall. Tyler, Obviously, President 48 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:12,720 Speaker 2: Trump covered a lot of ground there, just walk us through. 49 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:13,720 Speaker 2: What else he told. 50 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:16,520 Speaker 4: Us, Yeah, hey, Kelly. Well, as the President gave this 51 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:19,120 Speaker 4: update on Iran, he did confirm that the US and 52 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:22,080 Speaker 4: Israel have hit more than a seven thousand iranian of 53 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:23,959 Speaker 4: targets and said that he thinks that the Strait of 54 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 4: hermus will get going quote very quickly. President Trump, as 55 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:31,680 Speaker 4: you mentioned, called out some allies in Europe, also South Korea, Japan, 56 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:35,440 Speaker 4: also mentioned China. They are urging them to send military 57 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:38,640 Speaker 4: assets to the Straits to get the critical waterway opened. 58 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:40,560 Speaker 4: He went on to say that many of them have 59 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:42,960 Speaker 4: told them that they're quote on the way, but that 60 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:47,239 Speaker 4: others aren't as enthusiastic about helping the US. In his words, 61 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 4: he said that one or two countries he thinks will 62 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:52,800 Speaker 4: not commit to the US that they will surge assets, 63 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:56,560 Speaker 4: adding quote, my attitude is we don't need anybody, as 64 00:02:56,600 --> 00:02:58,640 Speaker 4: you well know, at least publicly. We've heard from some 65 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:01,840 Speaker 4: allies that they are where at best about sending naval 66 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:05,160 Speaker 4: escorts to the region while the conflict is ongoing. For example, 67 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 4: we're from the German Chancellor Murr's last hour saying that 68 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:10,639 Speaker 4: the NATO alliance is a defense alliance, it's not an 69 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 4: intervention alliance, in his words, appearing to echo what we 70 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 4: heard from UK Prime Minister Cure Stormer earlier today, who 71 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 4: seemed to rule out the potential that we could see 72 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 4: a NATO naval mission sent to the Strait of Primus, 73 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:25,639 Speaker 4: though people familiar with the matter do tail Bloomberg News, 74 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:27,960 Speaker 4: the UK is looking at some other potential options to 75 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:30,960 Speaker 4: put on the table in talks with the US, including 76 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 4: deploying autonomous drone mine hunting drones to go after any 77 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 4: potential minds that may be left in the Strait. Really 78 00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 4: importantly here from President Trump, he did indicate that the 79 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:46,760 Speaker 4: threat of targeting energy infrastructure in Iran does remain on 80 00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 4: the table, saying, quote one simple word and carg Island 81 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 4: pipelines will be gone, in reference to the US going 82 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 4: after military targets in Iran's top oil export hub. That 83 00:03:57,240 --> 00:04:00,160 Speaker 4: would be considered a major escalation in the war if 84 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 4: the US started targeting energy infrastructure. 85 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 3: But Kaylee. 86 00:04:04,160 --> 00:04:07,920 Speaker 4: At the end there, President Trump maintaining that oil prices 87 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:11,440 Speaker 4: will go down, He says, once the conflict comes to 88 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 4: an end. As you all know, the Interior Secretary Doug 89 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:16,480 Speaker 4: Bergram told us on Balance of Power last week that 90 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 4: in the meantime, the administration is quote leaving no stone unturned, 91 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:23,360 Speaker 4: and it's been to help lower costs for consumers. 92 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 2: Well, and also at the end there, Tyler, we heard 93 00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:30,039 Speaker 2: from President Trump's talking specifically about Israel, which of course 94 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:34,120 Speaker 2: is with the US in these operations as we speak. 95 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:36,719 Speaker 2: He says he's also spoken to Israel about its operation 96 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 2: in Lebanon against Hesbola. He says specifically they are looking 97 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 2: at the section where Hesbela is. He also was asked 98 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:45,720 Speaker 2: if Israel would use a nuclear weapon against iron at 99 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:47,400 Speaker 2: some point. He says they would not. But do we 100 00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 2: have a sense of whether or not there is any 101 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:54,080 Speaker 2: daylight emerging between the US and Israel as these operations continue. 102 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:56,320 Speaker 2: If President Trump wants to pursue an off ramp, is 103 00:04:56,360 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 2: it necessarily that the same would go for Israel. 104 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 4: Well, this seems to be the main question that we've 105 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:04,600 Speaker 4: been trying to glean some sort of answers to as 106 00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:07,679 Speaker 4: President Trump has repeatedly suggested in the last few days 107 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:11,640 Speaker 4: that there could be a potential negotiated off ramp here. 108 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:14,479 Speaker 4: You'll recall over the weekend he seemed to suggest that 109 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:17,080 Speaker 4: it was because of him that he didn't like terms 110 00:05:17,080 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 4: that had been put forward that he would agree to 111 00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:22,359 Speaker 4: a deal with Iran, saying that he needs to see 112 00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:27,040 Speaker 4: in total terms that Iran would abandon its nuclear ambition. Still, 113 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:29,080 Speaker 4: Iran came out, as you well know, and denied that 114 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:31,000 Speaker 4: there had been any outreach. And at this point it's 115 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:36,120 Speaker 4: unclear exactly who is exactly speaking with who, as President 116 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:39,680 Speaker 4: Trump even said in this press or that it's unclear 117 00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 4: what the leadership looks like in Iran today. But as 118 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:49,640 Speaker 4: President Trump maintains this, it is raising those questions about 119 00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:52,599 Speaker 4: what maybe the differences between the US and Israel. Kayley, 120 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:55,120 Speaker 4: Last week, we saw perhaps one of the most public 121 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:59,920 Speaker 4: disagreements between the countries when Israel went after oil infrastructure 122 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:02,240 Speaker 4: after the US had repeatedly said that it was not 123 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:05,480 Speaker 4: going to go after energy infrastructure. We'll see how that involves. 124 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:08,160 Speaker 4: As President Trump just renewed that threat in this press 125 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:10,839 Speaker 4: conference earlier today that that could be an escalation on 126 00:06:10,880 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 4: the table all. 127 00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:15,400 Speaker 2: Right, Bloomberg's Tyler Kundal live at the White House for us. 128 00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 2: Thank you so much. 129 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:18,920 Speaker 5: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 130 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 5: more coming up after this. 131 00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 132 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:31,080 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 133 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:34,400 Speaker 1: Apple Cockway and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 134 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:37,480 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 135 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:42,039 Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 136 00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:45,680 Speaker 2: We are monitoring the developments out of the White House. 137 00:06:45,680 --> 00:06:48,800 Speaker 2: President Trump, having just concluded a news conference ahead of 138 00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 2: a meeting of the Trump Kennedy Center Board at the 139 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:53,400 Speaker 2: White House, spending a great deal of time giving a 140 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:56,479 Speaker 2: status update on the combat operations in Iran, which of 141 00:06:56,520 --> 00:06:59,480 Speaker 2: course are now in their third week. Here's part of 142 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 2: what President and Trump had to say. 143 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:04,280 Speaker 6: Since the beginning of the conflict, We've struck more than 144 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:09,680 Speaker 6: seven thousand targets across Iran, and these have been mostly 145 00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:15,840 Speaker 6: commercial and military targets. We've achieved a ninety percent reduction 146 00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:20,080 Speaker 6: in their ballistic missile launches and a ninety five percent 147 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:24,760 Speaker 6: reduction in drone attacks. The missiles are crickling in now 148 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 6: at very low levels because they don't have too many 149 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:31,360 Speaker 6: missiles left. 150 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:37,120 Speaker 2: The President went on to say that Iran wants to 151 00:07:37,160 --> 00:07:40,400 Speaker 2: make a deal, that they're talking to our people, that 152 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 2: Iran has people who want to talk, but we don't 153 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:45,440 Speaker 2: know who because we don't know who Iran's leader is. 154 00:07:45,840 --> 00:07:48,200 Speaker 2: So for reaction to all of this, and more on 155 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:51,240 Speaker 2: what we can expect as this conflict is ongoing, we 156 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 2: turned out to Natasha Hall, who is Associate fellow at 157 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 2: Chatham House since here with us on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Natasha, 158 00:07:57,080 --> 00:07:59,560 Speaker 2: it's good to speak with you again as you hear 159 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:01,840 Speaker 2: the word of the President today talking about what the 160 00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:05,400 Speaker 2: military operations have already accomplished, though not signaling that there 161 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:09,440 Speaker 2: are any closer to necessarily reaching a conclusion, the idea 162 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:12,480 Speaker 2: that maybe Iran wants to talk, even though Iron says otherwise. 163 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:15,760 Speaker 2: Where is the likelihood in your mind of any viable 164 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 2: off ramp of some kind of solution to this conflict, 165 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:22,200 Speaker 2: or at the very least something that could bring us 166 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:24,240 Speaker 2: to a cessation of the strikes. 167 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:28,960 Speaker 7: Thanks for having me on. You know, I think the 168 00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:31,960 Speaker 7: administration has been a bit all over the place, and 169 00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:35,480 Speaker 7: there are strategic reasons for that. But we continue to 170 00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:38,840 Speaker 7: see a lot of confusion in President Trump's words that 171 00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:41,520 Speaker 7: the conflict is going to come to an end, but 172 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:44,320 Speaker 7: then threatening many other states if they don't come to 173 00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:48,800 Speaker 7: help that are reliant on the energy supplies from emanating 174 00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:51,080 Speaker 7: from the Strait of Horror moves, and so I think 175 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:52,760 Speaker 7: that there's a lot of off ramps. I think the 176 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:57,200 Speaker 7: question for me is then what then? He talked about 177 00:08:57,240 --> 00:09:01,600 Speaker 7: seven thousand strikes on Iran. We've also heard about regime change. Well, 178 00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:05,880 Speaker 7: you can degrade Iran's capabilities to a large extent, but 179 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:10,160 Speaker 7: it seems like they could produce drones forever. And so 180 00:09:10,200 --> 00:09:13,960 Speaker 7: it's unclear to me than the then what. We have 181 00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:17,160 Speaker 7: a lot of mistrust now between the Gulf States and 182 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:20,760 Speaker 7: Iran that had some kind of detente at least beforehand. 183 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:25,720 Speaker 7: Europe is still fighting this war with you know, Russia 184 00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 7: and Ukraine. There's there's a lot of different fronts that 185 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:32,440 Speaker 7: have been forgotten about with this war. And the question 186 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:35,880 Speaker 7: for me is is again what then? What has been 187 00:09:35,920 --> 00:09:40,520 Speaker 7: accomplished aside from really I think emboldening the Iranian regime. 188 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 7: And as you said, there's there's a lot of questions 189 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 7: with regards to the to the transition in terms of 190 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:48,440 Speaker 7: the Iranian government too. 191 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:50,000 Speaker 4: Well. 192 00:09:50,040 --> 00:09:52,199 Speaker 2: So if we focus on that for just a moment longer, 193 00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:55,080 Speaker 2: what are the odds that we reach a conclusion here 194 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 2: that both the US and Israel would decide enough is enough. 195 00:09:58,920 --> 00:10:01,040 Speaker 2: We are done here, We've accompli what we want with 196 00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:04,400 Speaker 2: the son of the late Ayatola still in power. 197 00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:09,800 Speaker 7: I mean, I'm very skeptical of that. I think that 198 00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:12,360 Speaker 7: there could be a short term cease fire, much like 199 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:15,840 Speaker 7: we saw in the summer, but that the ultimately the 200 00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:19,960 Speaker 7: war continues, and Iran is really trying to establish deterrence 201 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:23,439 Speaker 7: here so that that doesn't happen again. And what they've 202 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:26,320 Speaker 7: done is they've simply eliminated all of the leadership, including 203 00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:30,439 Speaker 7: the more moderate elements of the Iranian regime, through any 204 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:33,240 Speaker 7: of these air strikes. So it's unclear who they're going 205 00:10:33,280 --> 00:10:36,200 Speaker 7: to negotiate with at this point. I think what is 206 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:38,959 Speaker 7: clear to me is that Israel wants to see a 207 00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:42,560 Speaker 7: sort of mow the lawn strategy that it had incorporated 208 00:10:42,840 --> 00:10:46,679 Speaker 7: into with Gaza to the rest of the region. And 209 00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:48,440 Speaker 7: I think the question for the United States and for 210 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:51,320 Speaker 7: the American people is do we have the appetite. Do 211 00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:54,880 Speaker 7: we have the bandwidth for that kind of strategy in 212 00:10:54,920 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 7: the Middle East moving forward? 213 00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 2: Well, And the President was asked moments ago specifically about 214 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 2: Israel and potentially greater ground operations in the north in 215 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 2: Lebanon to go after Hesbela. He said that is they're 216 00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 2: looking at the section where Hesbla is. He certainly wasn't 217 00:11:09,920 --> 00:11:12,720 Speaker 2: critical of that decision making by Israel, even if he 218 00:11:12,760 --> 00:11:15,520 Speaker 2: wasn't outright endorsing it. Natasha, and I wonder what you 219 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:18,320 Speaker 2: make of that aspect of this conflict, that this is 220 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:22,000 Speaker 2: no longer just about strikes directly with Iran, that there 221 00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:23,440 Speaker 2: are other fronts here to consider. 222 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 7: Yeah, there are many other wars that are sort of 223 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:30,560 Speaker 7: being you know, continuing and deepening under the cover of 224 00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:32,640 Speaker 7: this larger war with Iran. And one of those, as 225 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:36,160 Speaker 7: you mentioned, is Lebanon, where Israel is preparing for a 226 00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:40,320 Speaker 7: ground of invasion to essentially displace those south of the 227 00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:43,000 Speaker 7: Latawi River. We're talking about three hundred to four hundred 228 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:47,760 Speaker 7: thousand people here. We've already seen upwards of eight hundred 229 00:11:47,760 --> 00:11:51,360 Speaker 7: thousand people displaced in Lebanon. We're talking about a fifth 230 00:11:51,360 --> 00:11:54,280 Speaker 7: of the country's population. And you know Trump's comments. He 231 00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:59,320 Speaker 7: mentioned that these are isolated areas with Hesbala supporters. The 232 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:01,560 Speaker 7: reality is that these people are sleeping out in the 233 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:05,280 Speaker 7: streets in downtown be a route. This is going to 234 00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:09,120 Speaker 7: encompass the entire country, and so I think that there's 235 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 7: something missing in terms of the what then piece of this. 236 00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:18,359 Speaker 7: There's a lot of cheering on of tactical winds and airstrikes, 237 00:12:18,920 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 7: but there's not really a strategy long term in terms 238 00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:25,719 Speaker 7: of what's going to actually happen after this war or 239 00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:28,319 Speaker 7: after this current phase of the conflict concludes. 240 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:33,120 Speaker 2: As we consider airstrikes, Natasha, I want to return to 241 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:36,720 Speaker 2: something President Trump spoke about once again in his remarks, 242 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:40,520 Speaker 2: which is the strikes that the US did targeting at 243 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:45,920 Speaker 2: carg Island, specifically military infrastructure, not Iran's energy infrastructure there Yet, 244 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:48,720 Speaker 2: of course we know cart Island is critical. It's where 245 00:12:48,960 --> 00:12:52,840 Speaker 2: the vast majority of Iranian oil passes through. It seems 246 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:55,520 Speaker 2: as though the President is trying to use those strikes 247 00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:58,319 Speaker 2: to get Iran to back down in some way. But 248 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 2: I wonder if you think it might actually have the 249 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:02,720 Speaker 2: opposite effect than its intent. 250 00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 7: I think a lot of this could backfire and that 251 00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:07,760 Speaker 7: wasn't the first strike, I mean there was. There was 252 00:13:07,800 --> 00:13:11,440 Speaker 7: also strikes on oil depots which caused basically black rain 253 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 7: to fall on Tehran earlier this week. So I mean, 254 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 7: I think that they're trying to destroy Iran's infrastructure, it's 255 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 7: ability to sustain its population as well, right, So this 256 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:27,000 Speaker 7: is sort of the more regime change elements of these operations. 257 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:29,120 Speaker 7: I think the question is if you're not going to 258 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:30,800 Speaker 7: have a ground invasion, if you're not going to have 259 00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:34,120 Speaker 7: something after this in a few weeks, and what you 260 00:13:34,280 --> 00:13:37,480 Speaker 7: have is a really wounded tiger, which doesn't really mean, 261 00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:42,160 Speaker 7: you know, good future for the Iranian people or for 262 00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:45,600 Speaker 7: the rest of the region moving forward. So you know, 263 00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 7: I think this is all part of those weakening the 264 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:54,280 Speaker 7: regime more broadly strategy of this of this offensive. But 265 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 7: I think the question is for the longer term, how 266 00:13:56,520 --> 00:13:59,679 Speaker 7: does this affect global oil markets? How does this affect 267 00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:05,079 Speaker 7: the Iranian people and internal dissent more broadly? But for sure, 268 00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:07,800 Speaker 7: you are angering the Iranian regime even further. 269 00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:12,160 Speaker 2: All right, Natasha, such valuable insight. We appreciate you joining 270 00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:15,000 Speaker 2: us Natasha Hall as an associate fellow at Shatham House 271 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:17,199 Speaker 2: here with us on balance of power, and we want 272 00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:19,160 Speaker 2: to keep this conversation going as we turn now to 273 00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:22,160 Speaker 2: our political panel, Bloomberg Politics and tributors Rick Davis and 274 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:24,840 Speaker 2: Genie Shanzano are with me. Rick, republican strategist and Stone 275 00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 2: Court Capital partner, Genie a democratic analyst and democracy visiting 276 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:32,160 Speaker 2: fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. To the point 277 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:35,200 Speaker 2: Natasha was just making on what could happen with energy prices, 278 00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:37,960 Speaker 2: Rick around this question around carg Island and whether or 279 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:41,120 Speaker 2: not the US might actually decide to go after Iran's 280 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:44,440 Speaker 2: oil infrastructure specifically. I wonder if you think the greater 281 00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 2: deterrent to that is the idea that would be escalation 282 00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:50,840 Speaker 2: and could prompt even greater retaliation from Iran, or that 283 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:53,920 Speaker 2: it actually could potentially have a more dramatic impact on 284 00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:56,920 Speaker 2: global oil prices and therefore prices at the pump here 285 00:14:56,920 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 2: at home. 286 00:14:58,280 --> 00:14:59,680 Speaker 3: Well, I think it's a little bit of the both. 287 00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:03,760 Speaker 8: Iran is very very good at sort of asymmetric warfare. 288 00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:06,960 Speaker 8: They don't need to match our missiles with their missiles. 289 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:10,040 Speaker 8: The President said earlier in the press conference that they 290 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:13,240 Speaker 8: have significantly scaled down on their attacks in the Gulf 291 00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:17,720 Speaker 8: and to Israel, and that's true, could be husbanding their resources. 292 00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:21,680 Speaker 8: But it only takes a few missiles into the straighth 293 00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:27,040 Speaker 8: Horn Moves or a set of drone strikes to destabilize 294 00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 8: the entire oil trade. 295 00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:30,200 Speaker 6: And as we've been. 296 00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:35,040 Speaker 9: Discussing on this program, there's much more to getting conditions 297 00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 9: precedent in the Straighthorn moves to allow insurance companies and 298 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:42,080 Speaker 9: tankers to want to sail. So I think this is 299 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:44,800 Speaker 9: expected to be destabilized for a long time. I mean, 300 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:49,000 Speaker 9: you know, General McRaven, who is quite an expert on 301 00:15:49,040 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 9: the region, has said recently that even under the rosiest scenarios, 302 00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:57,600 Speaker 9: it could take months to get the necessary equipment into 303 00:15:57,680 --> 00:16:02,320 Speaker 9: d Mind and to be able to create the conditions 304 00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:05,400 Speaker 9: to be able to open up the straight h hor 305 00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:10,400 Speaker 9: Moost to commercial traffic. And even Bevan Ninyahoo has been 306 00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:12,520 Speaker 9: very clear that he's got three more weeks on a 307 00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 9: bombing campaign that he's going to prosecute in addition to 308 00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:19,120 Speaker 9: whatever the United States decides to do. So I think 309 00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:22,160 Speaker 9: that at least for the next month, I can't imagine 310 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:25,440 Speaker 9: a scenario where we have conditions in the Strait that 311 00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:26,760 Speaker 9: are commercially viable. 312 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:31,120 Speaker 2: Well, so when we consider that commercial viability genie and 313 00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:33,600 Speaker 2: the President spoke to this when answering questions from reporters 314 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:35,240 Speaker 2: about the straight up her moves. He was asked, you know, 315 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:38,720 Speaker 2: if we've destroyed all these mining vessels, then why isn't 316 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 2: the straight open? And he said it takes two to tango, 317 00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:44,280 Speaker 2: and he specifically spoke to the idea that the operators 318 00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 2: of these vessels need to be willing to go through 319 00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:50,120 Speaker 2: the street. We obviously have seen the President use whatever 320 00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 2: leverage he can, be tariffs or other kind of economic 321 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:55,520 Speaker 2: state craft, if you were to will to try to 322 00:16:55,600 --> 00:17:00,760 Speaker 2: change the behavior of countries that he would like to 323 00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:02,960 Speaker 2: see behavioral changes for. But is he able to do 324 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 2: the same in this instance for private companies that are 325 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:08,159 Speaker 2: making risk calculations about their crew and cargo. 326 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:12,920 Speaker 10: The answer, in one word is no, or how about two? 327 00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:16,760 Speaker 10: Absolutely not. We've seen the President do this for the 328 00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:19,840 Speaker 10: last two weeks of this campaign, go on Fox News, 329 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:22,679 Speaker 10: for instance, and say, hey, guys, just put the ships 330 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:25,760 Speaker 10: through there. It'll be okay, it's not that dangerous. Then 331 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:29,159 Speaker 10: he turned to's offering risk insurance, as if you know 332 00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 10: I've got terminal cancer, now do you want to give 333 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:34,879 Speaker 10: me insurance? That was a non starter. Now he's making 334 00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:39,040 Speaker 10: these cases to the private sector again. He's also threatening 335 00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:42,879 Speaker 10: our allies that they better help us. The reality is 336 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 10: is that when you listen to the President, what struck 337 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:48,840 Speaker 10: me so much was his chastising making fun of, if 338 00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:51,960 Speaker 10: you will, the Prime Minister of the UK cure starmer 339 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:56,679 Speaker 10: for checking with his cabinet, for consulting people, and Donald 340 00:17:56,680 --> 00:17:59,119 Speaker 10: Trump sort of bragged and said, I don't need to 341 00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:01,440 Speaker 10: do that. I don't know why he needs to do that. Well, 342 00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:05,800 Speaker 10: the answer is, mister President, because we've learned all these lessons. 343 00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:10,000 Speaker 10: Before you get alliances, you build your life raft, if 344 00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:13,160 Speaker 10: you will, before the ship starts to sink. He didn't 345 00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:16,480 Speaker 10: do that, and now he's going on threatening allies. You're 346 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:20,600 Speaker 10: going to if you bomb Iran, threaten the Strait of 347 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:22,600 Speaker 10: Horror moves, they'll be able to close it and you 348 00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:24,840 Speaker 10: don't have any way out of that. So many of 349 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:28,080 Speaker 10: these lessons we've known and had the President bothered to 350 00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:31,960 Speaker 10: check with experts, rather as opposed to pushing them out 351 00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:35,680 Speaker 10: of the State Department in a doze effort. He may 352 00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 10: have gotten some advice that he desperately needs and not 353 00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:41,560 Speaker 10: be in the position he now he is in now 354 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 10: to be sitting up and making these statements. 355 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:48,080 Speaker 2: All right, Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis our political panel 356 00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:50,560 Speaker 2: today on Balance of Power. Thank you so much. And 357 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 2: we have more coming up here on balance of power. 358 00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:55,800 Speaker 2: As we turn next to the CEO of the Airlines 359 00:18:55,840 --> 00:18:59,760 Speaker 2: for America organization. As the Middle East disrupts air traffic 360 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:01,960 Speaker 2: and all so the Department of Homeland Security shut down, 361 00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:04,560 Speaker 2: creating some issues at airports. That's next on Bloomberg TV 362 00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:05,280 Speaker 2: and Radio. 363 00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:07,600 Speaker 5: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 364 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:08,840 Speaker 5: more coming up after this. 365 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ketchas 366 00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:20,159 Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple 367 00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:23,200 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You 368 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:26,720 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 369 00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:30,600 Speaker 1: New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven. 370 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:35,080 Speaker 2: Thirty Kaylee Lines in Washington, where you might not really 371 00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:38,080 Speaker 2: want to be right now. If you've been watching the weather, 372 00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:41,000 Speaker 2: it's going to be pretty gnarly this afternoon. We're talking 373 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 2: winds of some eighty miles per hour. We're under tornado 374 00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:47,720 Speaker 2: watch in the DC region until seven pm Eastern time. 375 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:49,440 Speaker 2: It's going to be pretty brutal out there, and it's 376 00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:51,639 Speaker 2: for that reason that the House of Representatives decided to 377 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:55,360 Speaker 2: go ahead and just cancel planned votes for today. The Senate, though, 378 00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:57,959 Speaker 2: is beginning their work week this afternoon, and they do 379 00:19:58,040 --> 00:19:59,879 Speaker 2: have a lot of work to do, as we are 380 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:03,000 Speaker 2: expecting them to take steps forward on trying, though likely 381 00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:06,560 Speaker 2: not succeeding, to pass the Save America Act, voting ID 382 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:09,320 Speaker 2: legislation that, of course, the President is heavily pushing and 383 00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:11,600 Speaker 2: says he will not sign any other legislation into law 384 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:14,760 Speaker 2: until he can put his signature on that particular piece 385 00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:15,920 Speaker 2: of legislation. 386 00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:17,359 Speaker 3: So there's that effort. 387 00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:20,240 Speaker 2: We're expecting a hearing, a confirmation hearing for the man 388 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:22,679 Speaker 2: he is tapped to succeed, Christy Nome as Department of 389 00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:26,840 Speaker 2: Homeland Security Secretary. Senator Mark Waynemullen will be testifying come Wednesday. 390 00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:30,360 Speaker 2: There's questions swirling around whether a supplemental funding request will 391 00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 2: be coming to Congress anytime soon as it pertains to 392 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:36,760 Speaker 2: our ongoing military operations and war against Iran. And then 393 00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:39,119 Speaker 2: there's the little matter of the fact that Department of 394 00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:42,320 Speaker 2: Homeland Security is still shut down. It's been about a 395 00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:45,080 Speaker 2: month that that agency is gone without funding and there's 396 00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:48,520 Speaker 2: no sign yet on a path forward to get it reopened. 397 00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:50,040 Speaker 2: So we want to get into all of this now 398 00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:52,640 Speaker 2: as we turn to Jonathan Tomorrow, who's a senior Washington 399 00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:54,919 Speaker 2: reporter for Bloomberg Government and joining us now here on 400 00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:58,600 Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio. So Jonathan, obviously there's a lot 401 00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:00,520 Speaker 2: of different directions that we could go. So let's begin 402 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:02,520 Speaker 2: with the Save America Act because it does seem that 403 00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:05,880 Speaker 2: that's what the Senate is going to prioritize first and foremost. 404 00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:09,520 Speaker 2: How messy is this going to get? Is there any 405 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:12,119 Speaker 2: real chance that the President gets what he wants and 406 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:14,119 Speaker 2: the Senate decides we're going to do away with the 407 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:18,560 Speaker 2: filibuster or do a talking filibuster to avoid any Democratic 408 00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:20,600 Speaker 2: pushback to this bill. 409 00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:22,920 Speaker 11: Yeah, what it looks like right now is that it's 410 00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:26,800 Speaker 11: going to be a Senate failure, only slower and more 411 00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:30,240 Speaker 11: painful than usual. There does not seem to be any 412 00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:33,600 Speaker 11: path towards either getting the sixty votes required to pass 413 00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:35,960 Speaker 11: the bill through the Senate, or even to changing the 414 00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:39,520 Speaker 11: filibuster with rules with a majority. There are a number 415 00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 11: of Republicans who don't want to do that, don't want 416 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:44,480 Speaker 11: to change the filibuster rules. Senate Majority Leader John Fune 417 00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 11: doesn't want to change the filibuster rule. So this is 418 00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:50,480 Speaker 11: an attempt by Republicans to show the President that they're 419 00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:54,159 Speaker 11: trying to pass his top priority, but that there's not 420 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:56,720 Speaker 11: really a pathway to do it. It could take a 421 00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 11: number of weeks. They might let this sit on the 422 00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:03,160 Speaker 11: Senate flor for a week, two weeks, maybe even more, 423 00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:05,800 Speaker 11: as a way to show that they're really making an 424 00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:08,760 Speaker 11: honest effort at it. But nobody seems to think that 425 00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:12,320 Speaker 11: there's a way where this finishes, where it actually passes 426 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:13,760 Speaker 11: the chamber and becomes a law. 427 00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:17,840 Speaker 2: Okay, So if that's an uphill climb, I wonder if 428 00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:20,800 Speaker 2: it'll be a similar uphill climb for any supplemental funding 429 00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:23,159 Speaker 2: the president might request from Congress. As we know that 430 00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:26,119 Speaker 2: this war with Iran has already cost billions and billions 431 00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,800 Speaker 2: of dollars, there has been a reporting that a supplemental 432 00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,320 Speaker 2: request could be in the tens of billions, if not 433 00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:33,320 Speaker 2: one hundred billion dollars. Jonathan, I don't know if you 434 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 2: have any insight for us on the potential timing or 435 00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:38,720 Speaker 2: size of that, But what about just the idea of 436 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:40,320 Speaker 2: it in and of itself. Is it going to be 437 00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:43,800 Speaker 2: difficult to get through both chambers or could we actually 438 00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:46,800 Speaker 2: see Democrats supporting this measure, if not for anything else 439 00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 2: other than in the name of the American troops they 440 00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:49,320 Speaker 2: are in theater. 441 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:52,879 Speaker 11: I think both of those things could be true. I 442 00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:55,200 Speaker 11: think it could be very difficult because I think there 443 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:57,119 Speaker 11: are a lot of Democrats who are going to say, 444 00:22:57,480 --> 00:22:59,760 Speaker 11: you know, we haven't been consulted on this war. We're 445 00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 11: going to We're not going to vote for something where 446 00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 11: we've had no input onto it, and then the President 447 00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:08,560 Speaker 11: doesn't seem interested in our input. The Chamber hasn't formally 448 00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:11,680 Speaker 11: voted on it. So I think it's difficult in that sense. 449 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:14,639 Speaker 11: But I do think you make a point. This is 450 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:17,159 Speaker 11: the kind of thing where maybe a handful of Democrats 451 00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 11: could cross over and vote for it anyway, because in 452 00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:24,119 Speaker 11: the name of supporting the troops, supporting a military mission, 453 00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:27,480 Speaker 11: regardless of whether they necessarily agree with the President on it, 454 00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:30,600 Speaker 11: just in the name of supporting military members who are 455 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:34,000 Speaker 11: there fighting. But I think that still remains to be seen. 456 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,520 Speaker 11: I think we'll have to see exactly how much money 457 00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:39,760 Speaker 11: they're asking for and what if any input they take 458 00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:43,280 Speaker 11: from Democrats. Do they accept any kind of strings attached 459 00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:44,960 Speaker 11: to this money, or do they just say we want 460 00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:48,240 Speaker 11: a blank check. I think that could affect the posture 461 00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:51,840 Speaker 11: of those handful of Democrats who maybe might be willing 462 00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:54,120 Speaker 11: to cross over and vote for it. Again, probably talking 463 00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:57,880 Speaker 11: about a very small number, but it only takes seven, eight, 464 00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:01,959 Speaker 11: maybe nine, depending on the Republican votes of Democrats crossing 465 00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:04,560 Speaker 11: over to potentially get that through the Senate. I do 466 00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:06,760 Speaker 11: think it could even be tricky for Republicans, though. I 467 00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:09,120 Speaker 11: think there are a number of Republicans who might not 468 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,560 Speaker 11: necessarily want to be on the hook for this war, 469 00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:16,000 Speaker 11: that they're content to let Trump kind of lead the 470 00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:21,480 Speaker 11: way and carry the burden of it politically, and the 471 00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:25,320 Speaker 11: vote with the public voting for the money would essentially 472 00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 11: be endorsing it, and I think there are probably some 473 00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:31,920 Speaker 11: Republicans who might be a little wary of that too, all. 474 00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:35,600 Speaker 2: Right, Jonathan Tomori of Bloomberg Government, Thank you so much, Jonathan, 475 00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:37,760 Speaker 2: of course speaking with us about the idea of Democrats 476 00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:40,359 Speaker 2: crossing over on a vote on supplemental funding. But we 477 00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:43,400 Speaker 2: also saw Democrats last fall crossing over in the name 478 00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:47,119 Speaker 2: of reopening the government after the longest shut down in history, 479 00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:48,679 Speaker 2: and of course we are in the middle of another 480 00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,480 Speaker 2: long partial shutdown as we speak. It's been about a 481 00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:54,840 Speaker 2: month and the Department of Homeland Security has gone unfunded 482 00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:57,080 Speaker 2: and you're starting to see the real world effects of that, 483 00:24:57,119 --> 00:25:00,199 Speaker 2: specifically if you've been trying to travel by air in 484 00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:02,680 Speaker 2: recent weeks, as we're looking at TSA lines with those 485 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:07,000 Speaker 2: agents going unpaid that have gotten longer and longer at airports. 486 00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:08,840 Speaker 2: It's starting to become a real problem. And we want 487 00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:10,480 Speaker 2: to get into it now with Christan Nunu, who's the 488 00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:13,920 Speaker 2: CEO of Airlines for America. He's the president there as well. 489 00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:16,199 Speaker 2: Of course, he also is the former Republican governor of 490 00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:18,080 Speaker 2: New Hampshire, and he's here with me in our Washington, 491 00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:19,679 Speaker 2: DC studio. Governor, great to see. 492 00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:20,280 Speaker 3: You, Great to see you. 493 00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:23,920 Speaker 2: As always, we know the situation's not great at airports 494 00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:26,679 Speaker 2: right now. How much worse could it get if this 495 00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:27,600 Speaker 2: shutdown continues. 496 00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:29,600 Speaker 3: Well, believe it or not, right now, we're managing right. 497 00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:31,960 Speaker 3: So you have maybe a dozen airports where there's hot 498 00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:34,360 Speaker 3: spots that could be a thirty minute, sixty minute. We've 499 00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:36,919 Speaker 3: seen some a couple of weekends ago upwards of two 500 00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:38,720 Speaker 3: or three hour waits, and you've seen some of those 501 00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,840 Speaker 3: long lines. For the most part, they're managed in that 502 00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:45,160 Speaker 3: the TSA has emergency deployment teams. They kind of move 503 00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:48,760 Speaker 3: into place they can add some and supplement with where 504 00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:53,240 Speaker 3: the callouts might be on where the higher traffic, especially 505 00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:56,600 Speaker 3: given spring break might be. So again it's been managed. Folks. 506 00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:58,879 Speaker 3: We tell everyone, don't cancel your flights. You might have 507 00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:00,800 Speaker 3: to give yourself a little extra time going to some 508 00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:02,760 Speaker 3: of these airports. But at the end of the day, 509 00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:05,520 Speaker 3: the issue is really about just, you know, the federal 510 00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:07,800 Speaker 3: government paying their own employees. I mean, we've talked about 511 00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:10,560 Speaker 3: this before. It's common sense. It's the most basic thing 512 00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:14,240 Speaker 3: that you have to do. And remember, DHS isn't unfunded 513 00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:18,800 Speaker 3: because of the big beautiful bill that ICE and CBP 514 00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:22,320 Speaker 3: and parts of Homeland Security. They are funded because they've 515 00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:25,880 Speaker 3: gotten billions of dollars. It's really TSA that takes the hit. 516 00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:28,239 Speaker 3: And these are some of the lowest paid employees that 517 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:30,960 Speaker 3: have been going on. They just got a zero paycheck. 518 00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:33,920 Speaker 3: They're going into their fourth week of not being paid. 519 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:37,399 Speaker 3: Imagine averaging thirty five thousand dollars a year, three or 520 00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:39,840 Speaker 3: four weeks is a lot, right. If you're a single 521 00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:42,399 Speaker 3: mom and you're working, you know, you're tso and you're working, 522 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:44,719 Speaker 3: and all of a sudden you're not bringing a paycheck 523 00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:47,960 Speaker 3: home for four weeks, well yeah, that's real pressure on 524 00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:50,159 Speaker 3: the system, and that will continue to build. So I 525 00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:52,080 Speaker 3: don't think we're in crisis mode, and hopefully we don't 526 00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:55,679 Speaker 3: get to crisis mode. I think there's huge opportunity for 527 00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:58,639 Speaker 3: folks here in Washington to say, Okay, you know, they 528 00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:01,720 Speaker 3: may not have liked Secretary Now fine, the President said fine, 529 00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:05,360 Speaker 3: he moved around, He capitulated there. They wanted more body cameras, 530 00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:09,520 Speaker 3: they're installing those. They wanted some calmness and some stability 531 00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,639 Speaker 3: to be brought into Minnesota. They've done that. So I 532 00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:14,840 Speaker 3: think the Republicans have actually done a pretty good job 533 00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:17,399 Speaker 3: of saying, Okay, we'll give in on these issues, but 534 00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:19,120 Speaker 3: we got to fund this thing. You know, as a whole, 535 00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:22,080 Speaker 3: Democrats aren't moving right now. Leadership is not talking, and 536 00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:24,320 Speaker 3: that's probably the most frustrating part. It's not that they 537 00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:28,040 Speaker 3: disagree on major points, they're literally not entering the room 538 00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:30,160 Speaker 3: and having discussions at the table. That's hard. 539 00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:32,680 Speaker 2: Well, we know that typically when it comes time to 540 00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:36,080 Speaker 2: difficult negotiations like this, they like to operate on a deadline. 541 00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:38,920 Speaker 2: Usually there's the deadline of the whole government's going to 542 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,360 Speaker 2: shut down at midnight if we don't do this. Now, 543 00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:43,720 Speaker 2: this is obviously much smaller in scale, So I wonder 544 00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:46,320 Speaker 2: if you see any kind of deadline. You mentioned spring break, 545 00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:49,080 Speaker 2: Easter's coming up. I'm supposed to travel with the seven 546 00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:51,000 Speaker 2: month old over easter. I'm a little nervous about that 547 00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:53,200 Speaker 2: right now. I got to say, given what's going on, 548 00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:55,760 Speaker 2: is that a realistic deadline, do you think or is 549 00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:57,800 Speaker 2: a problem right now that there is not, because. 550 00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,840 Speaker 3: There's no deadline right it's when the crisis hits maybe 551 00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:04,119 Speaker 3: Washington will finally do their job. So that's this arbitrary 552 00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:07,800 Speaker 3: moving target. It's not going to be what we saw 553 00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:10,640 Speaker 3: in October. October you had air traffic controllers, you had 554 00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:12,920 Speaker 3: delayed and canceled flights. You don't have that this time. 555 00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:15,600 Speaker 3: Flights are taking off and landing. Just find the airspace 556 00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:18,000 Speaker 3: is terrific. It's just literally getting into the door of 557 00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:21,200 Speaker 3: those airports. So the crisis, if there is one, would 558 00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:23,360 Speaker 3: only be a regional piece. It would be this airport 559 00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:25,399 Speaker 3: there or that airport there, and you just don't know 560 00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:28,119 Speaker 3: when or how it's going to come. Would that be 561 00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:30,840 Speaker 3: if we had an issue at one airport four weeks 562 00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:33,600 Speaker 3: from now in the Midwest somewhere. Is that enough to 563 00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:35,879 Speaker 3: all of a sudden get leadership to start talking again. 564 00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:38,440 Speaker 3: That would be a very weird thing. So they have 565 00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:41,520 Speaker 3: to be proactive about it. Both sides need to actually say, Okay, 566 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:44,040 Speaker 3: what do we need to do to end this. The 567 00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,920 Speaker 3: new Secretary Mark Wayn Mullen hopefully will be in in 568 00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:49,880 Speaker 3: early April. Maybe that's an opportunity, and then just in 569 00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:51,800 Speaker 3: the next couple weeks. Hopefully he doesn't get there, but 570 00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:55,360 Speaker 3: that could be an opportunity because he is a former 571 00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:57,640 Speaker 3: senator or will have been a former center at that time. 572 00:28:57,880 --> 00:28:59,880 Speaker 3: He has friends on the Democrat side. They know how 573 00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:04,080 Speaker 3: he works, He respects and understands that process. Another opportunity 574 00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:06,480 Speaker 3: I think for both sites to come together in a 575 00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:10,320 Speaker 3: leadership position and say, you know, here's our discussion voice. 576 00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:12,680 Speaker 3: But right now it's not even really clear what they 577 00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:16,200 Speaker 3: disagree on because they're so close. If you will, it's 578 00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:17,960 Speaker 3: all very blurry. And at the end of the day, 579 00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:21,920 Speaker 3: who suffers the American public, like the traveling American public, goes, 580 00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:24,160 Speaker 3: you know, what should I be doing with my travel plans? 581 00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:26,040 Speaker 3: The answer is keep your travel plans. You might just 582 00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:28,560 Speaker 3: have to give yourself a little extra time. Maybe look ahead, 583 00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:31,280 Speaker 3: see if your airport is one where the lines are 584 00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:33,800 Speaker 3: a little longer, you know, thirty minutes, sixty minute waits. 585 00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:35,800 Speaker 3: All that data is available online if you go to 586 00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:39,000 Speaker 3: the airport website that's usually there. So I think that 587 00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:43,120 Speaker 3: the folks at TSA are doing a tremendous job. Please 588 00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:45,560 Speaker 3: say thank you. By the way, have some patience. You know, 589 00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:48,800 Speaker 3: they're under as much stress as anybody to move folks 590 00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:51,560 Speaker 3: through that line quickly. The last thing they need is again, 591 00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:54,280 Speaker 3: as a customer, you can be frustrated. It's not their fault. 592 00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:55,800 Speaker 3: It is not their fault. In fact, we need to 593 00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:58,080 Speaker 3: thank them for all the hard work they're doing. I 594 00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:02,960 Speaker 3: think Ha McNeil who runs TSA, Rodney Scott who runs CBP, 595 00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:05,800 Speaker 3: they're doing a tremendous job keeping morale up, keeping their 596 00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:08,080 Speaker 3: staff moving forward. They deserve a lot of credit as well. 597 00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:11,920 Speaker 3: So things are moving in terms of management, They're just 598 00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:15,160 Speaker 3: not moving in terms of that Capitol Hill building that 599 00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:18,000 Speaker 3: sits behind you there. It's a little frustrating. Yeah, I'm 600 00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:18,440 Speaker 3: sure it is. 601 00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:20,240 Speaker 2: As we consider as well that all of this is 602 00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:22,840 Speaker 2: happening against a backdrop of war in the Middle East. 603 00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:25,680 Speaker 2: There's questions about whether or not there's domestic threats that 604 00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:29,280 Speaker 2: could be inspired by the war against Iran. But we 605 00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:32,200 Speaker 2: have also seen for airlines specifically, it having a very 606 00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:34,840 Speaker 2: disruptive effect. And what are global airline hubs. We saw 607 00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,560 Speaker 2: Duvi's airport have to close down just today. What is 608 00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:39,640 Speaker 2: the cascading effect of that. 609 00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:41,240 Speaker 3: Well, I believe it or not, their number one cascading 610 00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:44,040 Speaker 3: effect is the price of oil. Right, So remember the 611 00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:46,520 Speaker 3: folks that are flying today probably bought their ticket six 612 00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:50,600 Speaker 3: or twelve weeks ago, so they bought that ticket based 613 00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:51,880 Speaker 3: there's a lag in the price. 614 00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:52,320 Speaker 4: Right. 615 00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:55,040 Speaker 3: What we're going to see is a pretty big disruptor 616 00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:58,200 Speaker 3: across all the different airlines in terms of as price 617 00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:01,000 Speaker 3: of oil goes up fifty to hundred percent, on jet fuel, 618 00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:05,520 Speaker 3: whatever it might be, you'll see some potential price increases. 619 00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:09,920 Speaker 3: Let's say a month a month down the road, right, 620 00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:13,160 Speaker 3: if we don't get the straight of Hormuz really secured, 621 00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:15,720 Speaker 3: I'm going to give it till about mid May before 622 00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:18,840 Speaker 3: Memorial Day, because remember more Moral Day. Right before Memorial Day, 623 00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:20,640 Speaker 3: they come out and say the price of gas, the 624 00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:22,480 Speaker 3: price of oil is x, and this is how it 625 00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:27,080 Speaker 3: will affect summer travel. If by that time we haven't 626 00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:31,480 Speaker 3: seen any you know, substantial security of that supply chain 627 00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:34,200 Speaker 3: of one fifth of the world's energy source, then you 628 00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:36,720 Speaker 3: could be looking at some long term price increases. Right now, 629 00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:39,680 Speaker 3: the price increases could be hopefully they're temporary, they're just 630 00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:42,360 Speaker 3: bumps in the road. They're nothing that really impact people's 631 00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:45,280 Speaker 3: desire to travel. But as we hit those summer months, 632 00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:47,680 Speaker 3: what happens with FIFA, Right, we have a big, this 633 00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:50,840 Speaker 3: amazing American opportunity of all these international folks coming in, 634 00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:54,880 Speaker 3: you know, both in terms of safety and security. Again, 635 00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:57,640 Speaker 3: I think CBP and TSA are doing a great job 636 00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:01,760 Speaker 3: doing as much of the technology innovation and implementation for 637 00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:05,920 Speaker 3: those security protocols that have to happen around the FIFA 638 00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:08,400 Speaker 3: World Cup, where you'll see, you know, maybe millions of 639 00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:11,400 Speaker 3: people come in across the world for that great opportunity. 640 00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:13,200 Speaker 3: We don't want to miss it. So on the price 641 00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:14,720 Speaker 3: of oil, I think we're going to hit a little 642 00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:16,920 Speaker 3: bump in the road unless we get to a round 643 00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:18,680 Speaker 3: Memorial Day, then it could be a little more of 644 00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:22,440 Speaker 3: a long term impact. But remember, flying domestically is still 645 00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:24,560 Speaker 3: the most affordable thing you can do. The average price 646 00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:26,800 Speaker 3: of a ticket today is less than it was in 647 00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:31,160 Speaker 3: twenty nineteen. It's not just bucked inflation. It's actually deflationary. 648 00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:33,520 Speaker 3: I think the average price of anything else has gone 649 00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:36,600 Speaker 3: up about twenty six thirty percent since twenty nineteen. Our 650 00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:39,320 Speaker 3: prices have gone down three percent. So what happens. More 651 00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:42,720 Speaker 3: families are traveling before, more opportunity for folks than ever before. 652 00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:47,160 Speaker 3: We're seeing record numbers that have politics disrupt that for 653 00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:50,840 Speaker 3: the American people is so silly and such a terrible 654 00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:52,440 Speaker 3: sign of where our system is politically. 655 00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:54,080 Speaker 2: All Right, we have to leave it there, but Governor, 656 00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:56,000 Speaker 2: thanks for joining us. The former governor of New Hampshire 657 00:32:56,000 --> 00:32:59,360 Speaker 2: now President and CEO of Airlines for I know, pray 658 00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:01,360 Speaker 2: for me a few more weeks to heighten myself up 659 00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:01,640 Speaker 2: for it. 660 00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:03,760 Speaker 3: Prioritized families in the Atlantas. 661 00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:06,400 Speaker 2: Oh fingers crossed it all go So okay, thanks for 662 00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:08,160 Speaker 2: being here on Balance of Power. I'll see you again 663 00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:10,040 Speaker 2: for the late edition at five pm Eastern time right 664 00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:14,400 Speaker 2: here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 665 00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:19,840 Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make 666 00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:22,840 Speaker 5: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 667 00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:25,520 Speaker 5: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 668 00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:28,840 Speaker 5: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 669 00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:30,880 Speaker 5: at Bloomberg dot com.