1 00:00:01,680 --> 00:00:05,320 Speaker 1: Welcome back to a Numbers Game with Ryan Grodowski. Happy Thursday, everybody. 2 00:00:05,400 --> 00:00:08,880 Speaker 1: I hope that you all enjoyed. I honestly enjoyed, but 3 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:13,080 Speaker 1: found the episode on Monday intriguing and informative on political violence. 4 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:16,000 Speaker 1: I have to tell you that I approached that episode 5 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:19,960 Speaker 1: thinking that I was going to break down like all 6 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:23,320 Speaker 1: the data on political violence over the last twenty years, 7 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 1: and I got way over my skis and I ended up, 8 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:30,520 Speaker 1: I think, presenting you guys with a lot of information, 9 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 1: but I wanted to show you everything and it was 10 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 1: just way too much. But I think one thing that 11 00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:40,159 Speaker 1: I would like to touch on one more time before 12 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:44,199 Speaker 1: I go into ask me anything for the episode was 13 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 1: really how these nonprofits are manipulating information in order to 14 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:52,960 Speaker 1: make you have the opinion that right wing violence is 15 00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 1: larger than what it is. So I went through the ADL, 16 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:03,520 Speaker 1: the Anti Defamation League's data, and the University of Cincinnati's 17 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:08,000 Speaker 1: information to see examples that they had of right wing violence. 18 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:11,400 Speaker 1: Right So, the ADL, which was only looking at homicides, 19 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:15,720 Speaker 1: did not include Luigi Mangioni as a case of left 20 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:20,160 Speaker 1: wing violence, which is pretty insane considering it is the 21 00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:23,320 Speaker 1: one of the largest. They also did include the transgender 22 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:28,559 Speaker 1: cold Zizian. As I mentioned, they included any case where 23 00:01:28,600 --> 00:01:32,400 Speaker 1: somebody who had formerly belonged to some kind of neo 24 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:36,440 Speaker 1: Nazi or white nationalist prison gang committing any sort of 25 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:41,160 Speaker 1: homicidal act post their release as a case of right 26 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:44,399 Speaker 1: wing violence. So a New Hampshire man who shot his 27 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:48,680 Speaker 1: younger half brother after the half brother had informed the 28 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 1: police that he had shot a random house where no 29 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 1: one was injured and nobody was killed, he killed that 30 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 1: half brother who informed the police. The ADL lists that 31 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 1: as a case of right wing extremism. A sex offender 32 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 1: with a lengthy criminal record in Texas a murdered an 33 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:08,200 Speaker 1: eleven year old He at the time of his arrest, 34 00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 1: had a Nazi swastika tattoo. Once again, did not murder 35 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:15,360 Speaker 1: her because of the intentions of promoting some kind of 36 00:02:15,600 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 1: bast right wing conspiracy or some far right agenda. He 37 00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 1: murdered her because he was a criminal with a who 38 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 1: chose to murder a child. But there wasn't a political 39 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 1: opinion behind that. Nonetheless, that is considered a case of 40 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 1: right wing extremism, according to the ADL. ADL infused any 41 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 1: case where a person from the Arian Brotherhood, a neo 42 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:42,320 Speaker 1: Nazi white supremacist group, committed any kind of murder, even 43 00:02:42,520 --> 00:02:48,079 Speaker 1: among other members of their organization that had no political bias. 44 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:51,360 Speaker 1: There were fights where somebody was accused of being part 45 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 1: of a neo Nazi group who got into a fight 46 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 1: with a neighbor and killed the neighbor with a baseball bat, 47 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 1: where that was included. Once again, no political bias involved whatsoever, 48 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 1: no loitical opinion being about whatsoever. Black gangs whose leaders 49 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:08,440 Speaker 1: espouse black nationalism were not included. We're not thrown into 50 00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:10,480 Speaker 1: the same thing. And the idea once again was looking 51 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:15,640 Speaker 1: specifically at homicides. The other organization I mentioned University Cincinnati's 52 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:20,480 Speaker 1: prosecution project by Michael Lodenthal. They were looking at any crime. 53 00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:24,720 Speaker 1: And what he put together, which was cited by the economists, 54 00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 1: is truly laughable. What he called violent right wing extremism. 55 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:33,360 Speaker 1: A woman named Linda Mueller and two friends were arrested 56 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 1: for peacefully protesting an abortion clinic in Westchester, PA. He 57 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 1: called that violent right wing extremism. Four men in Dover, 58 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:45,640 Speaker 1: New York were arrested for targeting Mexicans and robbing them. 59 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:49,040 Speaker 1: The four men were all black, Another woman was named 60 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 1: Tiffany Harris, who had long history of mental health issues 61 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:55,880 Speaker 1: and petty crimes. She went into a majority Jewish neighborhood 62 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:58,720 Speaker 1: and spit at several Jews. She was also a black woman. 63 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 1: If I didn't mention that that was considered right wing extremism. 64 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 1: They manipulate all of this data. They lie if you can, 65 00:04:06,520 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 1: if you're old enough where you can think back to 66 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 1: twenty fifteen, think back to twenty sixteen when Trump was 67 00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:14,160 Speaker 1: running and Trump supporters being pelted with eggs. That one 68 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:17,520 Speaker 1: woman I can remember her face being pelt with eggs, 69 00:04:17,640 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 1: or the speech in Chicago where right wingers were attacked. 70 00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:24,360 Speaker 1: None of these cases exist. Let alone BLM, let alone, 71 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 1: anti file, let alone, the chest. None of it counts. 72 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 1: It is all manipulated data in order to promote to 73 00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:35,680 Speaker 1: the media, promote to Democrats, and promote to liberal hacks 74 00:04:35,680 --> 00:04:38,280 Speaker 1: in the media that this is a right wing only 75 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:41,360 Speaker 1: a problem. It is used to manipulate you and you 76 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:44,640 Speaker 1: should not believe it. Okay, now for a full ask 77 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:46,480 Speaker 1: Me Anything episode. I had to get out on my 78 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:49,039 Speaker 1: chest because the more research I did, the more I 79 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:51,760 Speaker 1: was just completely down the rabbit hole, and I had 80 00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:54,000 Speaker 1: to talk about it. Hey, we'll be right back after this. 81 00:04:57,880 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 1: All right. First question, probably my favorite question I have 82 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 1: ever been asked and asked me anything. It comes from Frank. 83 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:08,159 Speaker 1: He says, do you have a favorite NYC restaurant or 84 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 1: some good recommendations? Listen, Frank, I am a foodie. I 85 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:15,120 Speaker 1: love food. I wish I could lose weight while eating it. 86 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 1: I could go on for a days. I'm going to 87 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:20,720 Speaker 1: give you some good New York City places to visit 88 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 1: if you're in the neighborhood. If you're in the city 89 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:25,120 Speaker 1: and you want some things, these are my favorite things. 90 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 1: I'm not endorsed by these people. I wish i was. 91 00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:29,479 Speaker 1: They want to give me some free food, I will 92 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 1: take it. First and foremost. If you want a Republican hangout, 93 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:35,040 Speaker 1: go to Beach Cafe on Second Avenue in seventeenth Street. 94 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:37,479 Speaker 1: The food isn't like outstanding, but it's fine. They have 95 00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:41,360 Speaker 1: a copsle that's pretty good. Bartender's great. Love visiting them. 96 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:43,760 Speaker 1: I went there before and after being canceled on CNN 97 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 1: that day. Second, if you want a good deal for food, 98 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:50,279 Speaker 1: there is a place called Patrizia's. I would go to 99 00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:54,600 Speaker 1: the Williamsburg Patrizias on thirty fifth and Broadway in Williamsburg, Brooklyn. 100 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:58,960 Speaker 1: There's a seventy five dollars pre fixed menus, five courses, 101 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:03,120 Speaker 1: bottomless beer, bottom almost wine. Highly recommend. You won't find 102 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:06,320 Speaker 1: a better deal in the city, and it's good quality 103 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:09,040 Speaker 1: for what you're getting. I would also if you want 104 00:06:09,080 --> 00:06:13,760 Speaker 1: a higher priced dinner, there's a place called Piccolo Cucina Uptown. 105 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:16,920 Speaker 1: It's on East sixteenth Street. It's where my friends from 106 00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:20,560 Speaker 1: Italy choose to eat Italian food in the city. There 107 00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:24,120 Speaker 1: Kashia de Peppe is very authentic to Italy. Love it. 108 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:28,719 Speaker 1: Manetta's in Long Island City, great homemade pasta. Very highly 109 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:31,760 Speaker 1: recommend that place. If you want pizza, which is a 110 00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:34,280 Speaker 1: New York Specicity specialty. Everyone wants to know where's the 111 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:37,039 Speaker 1: best pizza. My favorite is if you go down to 112 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:41,240 Speaker 1: Coney Island and go to Spamoni Gardens. Absolutely fantastic. My 113 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:44,520 Speaker 1: mouth is actually watering while thinking of these things. Spamoni 114 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:47,240 Speaker 1: Gardens downtown in Coney Island. It's on down here, but 115 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:50,280 Speaker 1: it's in Coney Island and they only serve pies and 116 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:54,920 Speaker 1: half pies, really really really good. If you're deep into Queens, 117 00:06:55,080 --> 00:06:59,280 Speaker 1: there's a place called Rockaways on the Rock best chicken 118 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:02,560 Speaker 1: palm I've ever had in my life. It was spicy 119 00:07:02,640 --> 00:07:06,920 Speaker 1: chicken palm with sweet Penney Baka, absolutely incredible. I'm going 120 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:09,160 Speaker 1: to give three more quick ones because I know it's 121 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 1: not a food podcast, but I was very enthralled with 122 00:07:11,440 --> 00:07:14,280 Speaker 1: this question. Bok's on the Upper east Side. It's a 123 00:07:14,320 --> 00:07:18,680 Speaker 1: French restaurant, great steak, Free Tis excellent bar. There's a 124 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 1: Puerto Rican fish place in Brooklyn called Portsal Plaza on 125 00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:25,560 Speaker 1: Arlington Avenue, sell big containers of food. That's said more 126 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 1: if you live in New York City and you want something, 127 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:28,360 Speaker 1: because it's not really a place you said and eat, 128 00:07:28,400 --> 00:07:31,400 Speaker 1: it's place you take to go. And then lastly, downtown 129 00:07:31,400 --> 00:07:35,679 Speaker 1: there's best called Oscar Wilds on twenty seventh Street. Usually 130 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 1: places that try to be too cute sees on the 131 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:40,400 Speaker 1: inside and try to be too theme oriented, the food 132 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:42,400 Speaker 1: kind of sucks. This is a case where the food's 133 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 1: excellent and the vibe is very very cool. Okay, enough 134 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:49,160 Speaker 1: of the food questions, but I had to really I 135 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:51,240 Speaker 1: was very excited to be asked that question, so I'm 136 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:55,080 Speaker 1: excited to answer it because it's always politics. So that's 137 00:07:55,760 --> 00:07:58,800 Speaker 1: that was a great question. Thank you for that. Second 138 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 1: question comes from Carl. You sent me a lot of 139 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 1: questions somewhere north of twenty five. So I'm only going 140 00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 1: to answer too, because that would be the whole show 141 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:13,240 Speaker 1: would be just asked answer Carl's questions. Not that I 142 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:15,240 Speaker 1: don't appreciate. I love the questions, but there's a lot. 143 00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 1: So Carl hit on the question of the census, and 144 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,280 Speaker 1: I have to say, of all the topics that are 145 00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 1: constantly sent to me, the census is probably number one. 146 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 1: People are always asking about why did the census go wrong? 147 00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 1: How can we fix the census data from the twenty 148 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:38,840 Speaker 1: twenty census? He says. Basically, Carl says, how would the 149 00:08:38,880 --> 00:08:41,240 Speaker 1: seats be changed? The number of House seats in the 150 00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:44,520 Speaker 1: US Congress be changed in their allocation of each state, 151 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:48,840 Speaker 1: especially if it was done correctly and if the illegal 152 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 1: aliens weren't counted. I think that's the best way to 153 00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 1: sum up your question, Carl. So the first question is 154 00:08:57,320 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 1: a little difficult, right because I'm going to give you 155 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 1: two separate answers. If the number of seats that were 156 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:08,560 Speaker 1: counted back in twenty twenty were done differently, it would 157 00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:11,960 Speaker 1: look like this. So the census undercounted voters in six 158 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:17,560 Speaker 1: states Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas, and it 159 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:23,199 Speaker 1: over counted voters in Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, 160 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 1: Rhode Island, and Utah. Have those states been counted correctly 161 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:31,360 Speaker 1: the first time. Texas would have gained three House seats 162 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:34,080 Speaker 1: instead of two, Florida would have gained three instead of two, 163 00:09:34,720 --> 00:09:38,280 Speaker 1: Colorado would have not gained any, Rhode Island would have 164 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:41,080 Speaker 1: lost one of their two seats, and Minnesota would have 165 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:44,640 Speaker 1: also lost one seat. Now we don't know how things 166 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 1: are going to shake up ahead of the twenty thirty census. 167 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:51,520 Speaker 1: You know, something could happen that drastically changes the population 168 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:54,120 Speaker 1: of a given state, Like if there's a massive hurricane 169 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:56,760 Speaker 1: Katrina style hurricane that makes its way to someplace like 170 00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:58,840 Speaker 1: South Florida, that could change so many people live there. 171 00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:02,079 Speaker 1: If California had as the big earthquake and San Francisco 172 00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:05,440 Speaker 1: falls into the San Andreas Fault or North Dakota and 173 00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:07,719 Speaker 1: it's like the next big business and everyone's making a 174 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:10,520 Speaker 1: million dollars there, you never know, like things could change 175 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:13,319 Speaker 1: drastically in the next five years. As of now, Forecaster's 176 00:10:13,440 --> 00:10:16,840 Speaker 1: estimate of California is slated to lose three congressional seats, 177 00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:19,880 Speaker 1: which makes their redistricting that Newsom's doing right now an 178 00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:24,040 Speaker 1: actual nightmare because it means in five years, Democrats will 179 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:26,959 Speaker 1: have six incumbents either having to choose to retire or 180 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 1: run against each other. New York is slated to lose two. 181 00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:33,040 Speaker 1: My best guess is one in Long Island and one 182 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:34,959 Speaker 1: in Upstate, and maybe they're going to merge a Long 183 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:40,319 Speaker 1: Island in Queen's seat. Who knows. Oregon, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin, 184 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:43,840 Speaker 1: and Rhode Island are all slated to lose one. Texas 185 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:47,600 Speaker 1: and Florida will each gain four, Idaho, Utah, and Arizona 186 00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:51,720 Speaker 1: will each gain one. This is going to be very consequential, 187 00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:53,960 Speaker 1: not only in the House representatives, by the way, but 188 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:56,440 Speaker 1: this will be consequential for the next for the presidential 189 00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 1: elections of the twenty thirties, because it means a Republican 190 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 1: can win without winning a single blue Wall Midwestern state. Right, 191 00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:09,520 Speaker 1: You'll need Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona. You will not 192 00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:12,720 Speaker 1: need Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan, which will change our politics 193 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:14,120 Speaker 1: a lot. I'm able to do a whole episode in 194 00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:17,360 Speaker 1: that in the future. Now, what would have happened in 195 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 1: the twenty twenty census if illegals were not counted, which 196 00:11:20,800 --> 00:11:24,319 Speaker 1: is part of your question. According to Pew Research, both 197 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:27,080 Speaker 1: Florida and Texas they would have gained one less seat, 198 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:29,440 Speaker 1: So Texas would have gained two and Florida have gained one. 199 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:31,800 Speaker 1: They would have getting in total of three instead of five. 200 00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 1: California would have lost two seats instead of only losing one. Alabama, Minnesota, 201 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:40,480 Speaker 1: and Ohio would have all gained a seat. So illegal 202 00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:44,840 Speaker 1: aliens being counted for the House of Representatives not only 203 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:48,960 Speaker 1: gibs Democrats more seats. It really does take away from 204 00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:51,840 Speaker 1: these red states in the Midwest, these red states in 205 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 1: more like you know, deep southern places. I have to 206 00:11:57,280 --> 00:12:02,440 Speaker 1: tell you that I'm asked constantly like can they fix 207 00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:04,840 Speaker 1: the senses? Can we redo the senses? I think if 208 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:08,120 Speaker 1: they could have, they would have. I don't think it's 209 00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:12,520 Speaker 1: possible anyway. Thank you for your many, many, many questions, Carl. 210 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:15,080 Speaker 1: I hope I answered a few of them, and maybe 211 00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:16,960 Speaker 1: I'll get to another one and different ask me anything. 212 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:21,440 Speaker 1: Next question comes from Bennett. He writes, quote, last week, 213 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:24,480 Speaker 1: you mentioned that crime rates went down after spiking in 214 00:12:24,520 --> 00:12:28,000 Speaker 1: the seventies, yet you made no mention of the row effect. 215 00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:31,560 Speaker 1: Many sociologists point towards the impact of legalized abortion for 216 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:35,080 Speaker 1: lowering violent crime during the period, especially inner city crime. 217 00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:39,440 Speaker 1: So what Bennett is referring to is this idea that 218 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:43,720 Speaker 1: many sociologists have that abortion, especially with the legalization of 219 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:47,720 Speaker 1: Roe v. Wade nationwide abortion legalization resulted in many poor, 220 00:12:47,800 --> 00:12:52,760 Speaker 1: specifically black women, aborting their babies. Considering black men are 221 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 1: have a higher share of the violent crime than their 222 00:12:57,800 --> 00:13:00,720 Speaker 1: overall percentage of the population, this is what they're pointing to, 223 00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:03,839 Speaker 1: because black men are about six percent of the population 224 00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 1: and something like I don't know forty percent, I don't 225 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 1: know the exact number on the top my head, but 226 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:11,160 Speaker 1: like something forty percent of all violent crime, especially homicide. 227 00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 1: That is what they are pointing to as the answer 228 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:21,040 Speaker 1: to that. The study was published by John Donahue and 229 00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:24,520 Speaker 1: Stephen Levitt. That's the people the first two criminologists who 230 00:13:24,520 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 1: sat there and said that this was the reasoning. They wrote, quote, 231 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:32,360 Speaker 1: we offer evidence that legalized abortion has contributed significantly to 232 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 1: the crime reduction. Crime began to fall roughly eighteen years 233 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:39,880 Speaker 1: after abortion was legalized. The five states that allow abortion 234 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:43,120 Speaker 1: in nineteen seventy experienced declients earlier than the rest of 235 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:47,600 Speaker 1: the country, which legalized in nineteen seventy three. With Roe v. Wade. 236 00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:51,160 Speaker 1: States with high abortion rates in the nineteen seventies and 237 00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:54,640 Speaker 1: eighties experienced a greater crime reduction in the nineties. In 238 00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:58,760 Speaker 1: higher abortion states, only arrest of those born after abortion 239 00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:03,880 Speaker 1: legalization fall relative to low abortion states. Legalized abortion appears 240 00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 1: to account for as much as fifty percent of the 241 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:12,080 Speaker 1: recent crime drop. The argument that they have holds some merit, 242 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 1: specifically with the black population. I've done this research before. 243 00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:19,960 Speaker 1: If the black population of America and the white population 244 00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 1: were two separate countries, the black population would have a 245 00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:26,960 Speaker 1: crime rate in the top fifteen or top ten most 246 00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:31,360 Speaker 1: violent nations in America, and the white crime rate would 247 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:34,960 Speaker 1: be somewhere around Canada's. However, I think that what is 248 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:40,480 Speaker 1: missing from there, and what is undercounted from their data, 249 00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:44,680 Speaker 1: is the fact of an aging population, significantly the aging 250 00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 1: of the baby boomers. Right. There were a lot of 251 00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:51,800 Speaker 1: things happening in the early nineties together, not just eighteen 252 00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:55,680 Speaker 1: years since Roe v. Wade was legalized. That was part 253 00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:59,080 Speaker 1: of it, for sure, That wasn't the entire thing. I 254 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:02,840 Speaker 1: don't think it makes sense that while abortion increased in 255 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:07,680 Speaker 1: the nineteen seventies, abortion really peaked nineteen eighty three. That's 256 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:12,000 Speaker 1: one about a third of pregnancies resulted in abortion. Abortion 257 00:15:12,040 --> 00:15:16,200 Speaker 1: actually hit their highest raw number nineteen ninety. Crimes started 258 00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:20,120 Speaker 1: really coming down, not just in the early nineties under Giuliani, 259 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 1: which New York City, by the way, had legalized abortion 260 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:28,280 Speaker 1: way before row. Crime starts coming down in the I mean, 261 00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:31,040 Speaker 1: and then it starges back up, but it doesn't. The 262 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:35,120 Speaker 1: drop begins actually much closer to the to the legalization 263 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:41,360 Speaker 1: to row being enacted in nineteen seventy three than people think. Right. Remember, 264 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 1: murder is specifically a young man's game. It is incredibly 265 00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:47,800 Speaker 1: rare for an older person to become a serial killer, 266 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:51,240 Speaker 1: you know, after spending decades with no history of violence. 267 00:15:51,280 --> 00:15:55,119 Speaker 1: That's what makes the Las Vegas shooting so odd. Abortion 268 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:58,440 Speaker 1: hit about one point five million in the late seventies, 269 00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 1: one point five million abortions per year, which means that 270 00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 1: those children would have only been teenagers in the nineties. 271 00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 1: When the murder rates starts collapsing, they're not kind of 272 00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:12,520 Speaker 1: old enough to be responsible for what would have been 273 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:15,840 Speaker 1: higher crime rates. I read a book that I highly 274 00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 1: recommend on this topic called The Rise and Fall of 275 00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:21,600 Speaker 1: Violent Crime in America by Barry Lasser, and what he 276 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:24,120 Speaker 1: points to is really just an aging of the population. 277 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:26,920 Speaker 1: Basically that as baby Boomers came of age in the 278 00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:30,320 Speaker 1: nineteen sixties and seventies, there was this dramatic rise in crime, 279 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:33,000 Speaker 1: and then it began to fall in the late eighties. 280 00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 1: Then the crack epidemic and the increased gang violence happens, 281 00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:39,160 Speaker 1: and there's a lot of activist judges starting to release 282 00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:42,280 Speaker 1: criminals during that time period, especially in big blue states 283 00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:45,800 Speaker 1: and big blue cities. But Latser says that a mixture 284 00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 1: of hard on crime laws placed in places like New 285 00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:52,520 Speaker 1: York City and Los Angeles under their Republican mayors, on 286 00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:56,440 Speaker 1: top of just an aging population of baby boomers aging 287 00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:59,760 Speaker 1: and the gen x being significantly smaller than baby boomers, 288 00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:04,160 Speaker 1: really was responsible for the massive decline in crime. I'm 289 00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:06,919 Speaker 1: not going to say that abortion played no part, but 290 00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:10,680 Speaker 1: as abortion rates began substantially declining throughout the nineteen nineties, 291 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:13,520 Speaker 1: it did not result in a spike of crime in 292 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:16,840 Speaker 1: twenty tens. Right, So just because people had less abortions 293 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:20,960 Speaker 1: doesn't mean that there was an increase in crime. That's 294 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:22,760 Speaker 1: what I believe. I believe abortion a part of it, 295 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:25,160 Speaker 1: but it was I think it was the aging population 296 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:27,760 Speaker 1: was a bigger part of it. I highly recommend though, 297 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:29,960 Speaker 1: The Rise and Fall of Island Crime by Barry Latser 298 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:33,480 Speaker 1: if you're interested in this subject. Okay, let's do a 299 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:37,800 Speaker 1: next question on crime, but this time from Kyle. Kyle writes, quote, 300 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:40,359 Speaker 1: Kathy Hogle and Gavin Newsom have a point when they 301 00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 1: say that crime is worse than some major cities in 302 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:45,119 Speaker 1: red states and then in blue states. That is so true. 303 00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:49,200 Speaker 1: Places like New Orleans, Saint Louis, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Kansas City, 304 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:52,639 Speaker 1: and Jackson. Republican governors don't need to wait to Trump 305 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:55,080 Speaker 1: for Trump to send in the National Guard. Are red 306 00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 1: steak governors so inept that they can't get control of 307 00:17:57,640 --> 00:18:01,399 Speaker 1: their cities. Thank you Kyle for this and to your point, Yeah, look, 308 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:04,720 Speaker 1: crime has fallen even in some of the worst areas 309 00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 1: of our country over the last few decades. So something 310 00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:12,640 Speaker 1: is happening that is positive. But I'll say this because 311 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:16,400 Speaker 1: those cities you mentioned, but Saint Louis Jackson, these sitn 312 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:21,320 Speaker 1: New Orleans. These cities have either a majority black population 313 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:25,840 Speaker 1: or a significant black population. They do not vote for Republicans. 314 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:31,040 Speaker 1: They vote for very, very comically corrupt Democratic mayors who 315 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:34,359 Speaker 1: are utterly inept in what they do. And I think 316 00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:41,639 Speaker 1: there is this feeling of being complacent, that the problem 317 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:47,280 Speaker 1: is too difficult, and that why bother these people are 318 00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 1: never going to support us, Why are we to a 319 00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:53,679 Speaker 1: point going to support them? These cities are hellholes? And 320 00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:55,560 Speaker 1: no one has ever told me this. This is the 321 00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:58,600 Speaker 1: feeling I've gotten being in some big Red cities with 322 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:02,199 Speaker 1: some big Republican politicians about their cities. They kind of 323 00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:04,840 Speaker 1: just are like, can't doing about that place? That place 324 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:08,720 Speaker 1: as a hellhole. And the truth is that Red states 325 00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:12,919 Speaker 1: have some of these beautiful cities. New Orleans is amazing city, 326 00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:17,199 Speaker 1: Memphis is an incredible city, but they are allowed to 327 00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:25,640 Speaker 1: become you know, unfathomably dangerous, especially for you know, young 328 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:28,840 Speaker 1: families and people who are looking for housing. How much 329 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:31,880 Speaker 1: more housing would you have available if some of these 330 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:36,639 Speaker 1: cities like Memphis and New Orleans were livable, like we're 331 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:39,399 Speaker 1: all parts were livable, you'd have so much more housing. 332 00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:42,199 Speaker 1: But I just think that people sit there and say, 333 00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:44,560 Speaker 1: you can't fix it, don't even try. I agree with 334 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:47,479 Speaker 1: you one hundred percent. They should try Kansas Cities, New 335 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:50,840 Speaker 1: Kansas City, New Orleans, Memphis. I've been to all those places. 336 00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:53,879 Speaker 1: They're beautiful, They've got such life to them. The crime 337 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:58,440 Speaker 1: is unimaginable, and Republican governors should be taking a more 338 00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:03,000 Speaker 1: proactive stance, even against the well wishes of their Democratic mayors, 339 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:05,040 Speaker 1: and even by against the well wishes by the way 340 00:20:05,080 --> 00:20:08,600 Speaker 1: of some of the population. They're the governor, they're responsible. 341 00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:11,760 Speaker 1: They should crack down on crime. Okay. Next question comes 342 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:16,119 Speaker 1: from David Scott from New Hampshire. He writes that he 343 00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:18,600 Speaker 1: had an argument with his liberal sister about how many 344 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:21,679 Speaker 1: illegal aliens Biden has led into the country during the 345 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,600 Speaker 1: four years he was in the White House. He said 346 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:27,760 Speaker 1: that he David says that he said there was ten million, 347 00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:29,720 Speaker 1: and his sister said there was two point three million. 348 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:34,720 Speaker 1: Can you explain, okay, First, your sister cited PolitiFact. Never 349 00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:39,680 Speaker 1: listen to PolitiFact. They are a bias misleading organization. Secondly, 350 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:43,440 Speaker 1: you're both kind of correct, though you're more right than 351 00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:47,200 Speaker 1: she is. During Biden's presidency, there were an estimated ten 352 00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:50,800 Speaker 1: point eight to eleven million encounters at the border, with 353 00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 1: about two million known godaways on top of that. Those 354 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:57,879 Speaker 1: are illegal aliens that don't encounter border patrol, but it 355 00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:00,680 Speaker 1: are still believed to have made it within the interior 356 00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:04,120 Speaker 1: of the United States. That doesn't mean, by the way, though, 357 00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:08,320 Speaker 1: that that ten to ten point eight to eleven million 358 00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:11,920 Speaker 1: plus two million got aways is the number that was released. 359 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 1: The numbers released are much lower. There were about two 360 00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:20,399 Speaker 1: point five million illegal aliens released into the country during 361 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:23,480 Speaker 1: Biden's presidency that we are well aware of, right if 362 00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:27,280 Speaker 1: you have to remember, Biden understood at the end of 363 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:30,800 Speaker 1: his presidency that the immigration problem was becoming a stain 364 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:34,160 Speaker 1: on his presidency, that it was really dragging his numbers down. 365 00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:37,720 Speaker 1: So he started cracking down on immigration pretty substantially. And 366 00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:41,680 Speaker 1: one thing that he did was offer parole programs two 367 00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:44,439 Speaker 1: illegal aliens to be flown into the country so they 368 00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 1: were no longer coming across our southern border. That's why 369 00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:52,240 Speaker 1: there's this huge dip in the number of southern border encounters. 370 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:55,720 Speaker 1: And they were given this CHNV parole program. That was 371 00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 1: about one point seven million of them plus about five 372 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:04,800 Speaker 1: one hundred thousand unaccompanied miners. When you add all of 373 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:07,840 Speaker 1: them together, the one point seven million, which by these 374 00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:10,280 Speaker 1: like PolitiFact would never include because it was a quote 375 00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:14,000 Speaker 1: unquote parole program, So they were technically legally here, although 376 00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:16,280 Speaker 1: they had no rights to be here, aside from the 377 00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:19,919 Speaker 1: fact that Biden waved his magic wand and Trump unwaived it, 378 00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:22,280 Speaker 1: and now they are not legally allowed in the country anymore. 379 00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:26,119 Speaker 1: When you add those five hundred thousand miners, one to 380 00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:31,480 Speaker 1: two million known gataways, the one point seven million Parolis, 381 00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:35,080 Speaker 1: and the about two point five to three million illegal aliens, 382 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:39,080 Speaker 1: it's overall, it's estimated, according to Goldman Sachs, by about 383 00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:42,240 Speaker 1: to about five million illegal aliens made it into the 384 00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:45,160 Speaker 1: interior of the country and stayed here. That was also 385 00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:47,840 Speaker 1: repeated by The New York Times the Goldman Sacks numbers, 386 00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:50,240 Speaker 1: The Center for Immigration Study says it was about five 387 00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:53,040 Speaker 1: point four million, and Migration Policy Center says it was 388 00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:55,600 Speaker 1: about five point eight million. So five to six million 389 00:22:55,640 --> 00:23:00,000 Speaker 1: people came under Biden illegally in state, including HNB, including Parolis, 390 00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:03,840 Speaker 1: including on accompanied minors. You both have bits and pieces 391 00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:06,119 Speaker 1: of the data. You're more right than she is, but 392 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:09,280 Speaker 1: that's the full story. I hope you guys can solve 393 00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:12,600 Speaker 1: this dispute peacefully. I imagine what a game of monopoly 394 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,240 Speaker 1: with your family is like. Anyway, we'll be right back 395 00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:21,720 Speaker 1: with more. Ask me anything. Next question comes from Brian. 396 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:24,159 Speaker 1: He says he's a big fan of the show and 397 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:27,840 Speaker 1: shares with everybody. Brian, seriously, thank you, thank you to 398 00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:30,320 Speaker 1: everyone who listens. I really want to grow the show 399 00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:33,040 Speaker 1: large enough to do live events one day, and I 400 00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:35,320 Speaker 1: need my numbers to keep growing. And it really means 401 00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:37,439 Speaker 1: a lot to me. He asks. If there was a 402 00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:40,200 Speaker 1: do over in the twenty twenty four election and Harris 403 00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:44,040 Speaker 1: was to take over the presidency for Biden instead of 404 00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:47,760 Speaker 1: just running in his place, would have had a different result. 405 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,840 Speaker 1: He asked. Is there any historical precedent for a vice 406 00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:55,280 Speaker 1: president completing another president's term barring death or scandal, and 407 00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:59,399 Speaker 1: then the successful running on their own. Okay, the only 408 00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:02,639 Speaker 1: time he vite president has taken over for a president 409 00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:07,000 Speaker 1: when there wasn't a death involved was Gerald Ford for 410 00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:10,760 Speaker 1: Richard Nixon in nineteen seventy four, and Richard Nixon believed 411 00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:14,920 Speaker 1: or not took over the role of presidency but never 412 00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:20,520 Speaker 1: the title. Several times during Dwight Eisenhower's presidency. Eisenhower was 413 00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:23,560 Speaker 1: a very unhealthy president towards the end of his second term. 414 00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:26,000 Speaker 1: He had a heart attack in nineteen fifty five, he 415 00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:28,119 Speaker 1: had a major surgery in nineteen fifty six, and he 416 00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:31,280 Speaker 1: had a stroke in nineteen fifty seven, and Richard Nixon 417 00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:34,120 Speaker 1: took over the responsibility in the role of presidency for 418 00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:39,080 Speaker 1: several lengthy periods of time. However, in both cases, neither 419 00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:42,200 Speaker 1: men went on to win the presidency in the following election. 420 00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:45,439 Speaker 1: Ford lost to Carter in seventy six and Nixon to 421 00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:48,080 Speaker 1: Kennedy in nineteen sixty. I don't think that there's a 422 00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:53,400 Speaker 1: scenario where Harris would have taken over for Biden and 423 00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:57,480 Speaker 1: then won like forward thinking, and he mentions in the 424 00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:01,119 Speaker 1: email forward thinking, like there's no there's no answer, like 425 00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:04,640 Speaker 1: JD were to take over for Trump, would it result 426 00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:07,959 Speaker 1: in him having a better chance at winning. Probably not, 427 00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:10,639 Speaker 1: because then you're just viewed as the accidental president and 428 00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:14,359 Speaker 1: you still inherit all the positives and negatives from your successor. 429 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,520 Speaker 1: I don't think there's really a scenario where Harris would 430 00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:22,560 Speaker 1: have won the presidency given everything else that happened that year. 431 00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:29,280 Speaker 1: From the arrests, the assassination attempt, the you know, the economy, 432 00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:32,000 Speaker 1: the border, everything. I just don't think that there's a 433 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:36,199 Speaker 1: solution that would have made that possible. Though if she 434 00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:39,120 Speaker 1: did take over the presidency, the one thing that would 435 00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:41,359 Speaker 1: have been slightly un versus that Trump would have had 436 00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:43,800 Speaker 1: to redo all of his merchandise from forty seventh president 437 00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:48,119 Speaker 1: to forty eighth. Anyway, and Brian also asked if poll 438 00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:51,840 Speaker 1: taxes are viewed as illegal impediments to voting rights, then 439 00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:54,879 Speaker 1: should in congestion pricing tolling be as impediment to New 440 00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:59,680 Speaker 1: York City. Shouldn't that be illegal as given the rights 441 00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:03,359 Speaker 1: or the peace people to exercise, to exercise free assembly. No, 442 00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:06,520 Speaker 1: not really, And I hate the toll the congestion pricing, 443 00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:08,240 Speaker 1: so I'm not a fan of it. But no, that's 444 00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:11,479 Speaker 1: not it because the scenario doesn't hold up, Brian, because 445 00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:17,040 Speaker 1: congestion pricing doesn't block anyone from voting, given that if 446 00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:19,159 Speaker 1: you live in the outer boroughs, you vote in the 447 00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:21,840 Speaker 1: borough you live in. So no one from Queen's travels 448 00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:25,160 Speaker 1: to Manhattan to go vote. Same thing with Staten Island 449 00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:27,760 Speaker 1: or the Bronx or Brooklyn. You don't travel to Manhattan 450 00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:30,680 Speaker 1: to go vote, so you wouldn't be poll to go vote. 451 00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,000 Speaker 1: And I believe there's a waiver for people who live 452 00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,679 Speaker 1: like right on the line from having to pay it, 453 00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:37,159 Speaker 1: so they wouldn't have to pay it either. There's no 454 00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:40,520 Speaker 1: one really who would be forbidden from voting in order 455 00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:42,800 Speaker 1: to do that, and there's other ways of getting to 456 00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:45,280 Speaker 1: that area. So I don't like it, but I don't 457 00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:48,160 Speaker 1: think that argument holds up. But thank you for the question. Okay, 458 00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:50,880 Speaker 1: let's go to John Atkins, who is a big fan 459 00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:53,640 Speaker 1: of the podcast. He says, congrats on all your success 460 00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:55,919 Speaker 1: so far. He says, quote, I'm a little confused by 461 00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:58,639 Speaker 1: this because we've all heard since Trump's inacuration is how 462 00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:02,600 Speaker 1: Dems are imploting, hemorrhaging voters, embarrassing themselves left and right 463 00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:05,119 Speaker 1: and on the wrong side of every eighty twenty issue. 464 00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:08,320 Speaker 1: Are in total chaos internally and generally can't do anything right, 465 00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:10,639 Speaker 1: thank God. So how is it that at the same 466 00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:14,359 Speaker 1: time they petitive going into the midterms and even have 467 00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,320 Speaker 1: a decent chance at derailing Trump's agenda by taking the House. 468 00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:20,120 Speaker 1: How can all this be true at the same time? 469 00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:24,000 Speaker 1: Are the Democrats dead? Are the Democrats dead? No. First, 470 00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,320 Speaker 1: we live in a two party system, so unlike Europe, 471 00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:31,560 Speaker 1: unlike Canada, you only have two choices. So if you're 472 00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:34,800 Speaker 1: fed up with one party, you only have another party 473 00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:37,040 Speaker 1: to go to, or you could sit out, but you can't. 474 00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:41,960 Speaker 1: There's no real alternative third party that has a serious 475 00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,639 Speaker 1: chance of winning in any major race in this country 476 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:47,320 Speaker 1: outside of Bernie Sanders and Angus King in two states, 477 00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:51,400 Speaker 1: and they've caused the Democrats. You can only pick Democrat 478 00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:53,919 Speaker 1: or Republican. Secondly, when it comes to the House, the 479 00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:56,640 Speaker 1: number of swing states we are singing swing seats rather 480 00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:59,800 Speaker 1: that we are talking about is very, very small. In 481 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:03,600 Speaker 1: twenty twenty four election, only thirty seven House seats were 482 00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:06,879 Speaker 1: decided by less than five percentage points. There's eight point 483 00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:10,720 Speaker 1: five percent of all House seats. So when we're talking 484 00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:14,960 Speaker 1: about such few seats being really competitive and the margin 485 00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:18,320 Speaker 1: in the House as far as who runs the majority 486 00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:22,240 Speaker 1: being so tight, it can easily swing between both parties, 487 00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:25,600 Speaker 1: especially if people are disenfranchised. Over the economy. I've been 488 00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:27,960 Speaker 1: saying this last few episodes. The economy is not in 489 00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:31,719 Speaker 1: great shape. Energy prices are through the roof, Grocery prices 490 00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:36,280 Speaker 1: are climbing. This is causing concern among voters, especially voters 491 00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:40,640 Speaker 1: like Latinos, like independence, like young people who swung heavily 492 00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,480 Speaker 1: towards the president and his party. I think that the 493 00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:47,400 Speaker 1: economy is the major question, and if the media has 494 00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:50,000 Speaker 1: done a very good job of blaming Trump's tariffs for stuff, 495 00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:52,160 Speaker 1: I don't think that that's the full answer. I think 496 00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:54,280 Speaker 1: a lot of these energy costs are coming from these 497 00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:56,960 Speaker 1: data centers. I did a whole episode about this, but 498 00:28:57,040 --> 00:29:00,960 Speaker 1: I think that this is really affecting the ways and 499 00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:05,600 Speaker 1: other impressionable people are voting. And also Democrats, by the way, 500 00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:11,200 Speaker 1: once again are the party of high propensity frequent voters, 501 00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:14,520 Speaker 1: so not only do they have that working for them, 502 00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:19,440 Speaker 1: they have the higher likelihood of people who vote in 503 00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:22,800 Speaker 1: every election showing up in this one. Now, maybe things 504 00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:26,040 Speaker 1: are changing, maybe especially the death of Charlie Kirk. Maybe 505 00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:31,000 Speaker 1: that is it brought people who are less engaged to 506 00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:33,560 Speaker 1: become more engaged. Maybe they want to be more active. 507 00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:36,160 Speaker 1: There's a lot of people who are putting applications to 508 00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:39,080 Speaker 1: start turning point chapters. And maybe we'll see something happen 509 00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:42,200 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six because of that, and maybe Charlie's 510 00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:44,200 Speaker 1: last act will be to inspire a million people to 511 00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:47,080 Speaker 1: be just like him. Who knows right. But as of 512 00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:50,880 Speaker 1: right now, Democrats do have that advantage. I am old 513 00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:53,240 Speaker 1: enough to remember the two thousand and eight the cover 514 00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:56,080 Speaker 1: of Time magazine where it said endangered species and it was 515 00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:58,560 Speaker 1: a picture of the republic elephant, and they said it 516 00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:00,800 Speaker 1: was going to be a regional that was going to 517 00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:04,960 Speaker 1: lose seats. Things swing back and forth, right, nothing is permanent. 518 00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:08,720 Speaker 1: Democrats have taken a lot of bad policy positions on 519 00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:12,360 Speaker 1: a number of things, and for every Mundani that they 520 00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:15,240 Speaker 1: have nominated in places like New York, they've also backed 521 00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:18,760 Speaker 1: a lot of moderates so far, I think that they 522 00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:23,080 Speaker 1: are trying to really navigate issues like the transports issue. 523 00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:25,440 Speaker 1: They keep saying we don't want to talk about it 524 00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:28,480 Speaker 1: because they don't want to alienate their base, But this 525 00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:30,400 Speaker 1: is them also saying we're not going to, you know, 526 00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:33,640 Speaker 1: embrace it the way that Kamala did. Republicans are kind 527 00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:36,320 Speaker 1: of the same evolution around gay marriage and in the 528 00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:38,920 Speaker 1: twenty ten Time where they were like, how do we 529 00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:41,840 Speaker 1: navigate this knowing how the polls are going. Democrats have 530 00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:44,080 Speaker 1: loads of problems still from the twenty twenty four election, 531 00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:46,760 Speaker 1: but If the question is can they win the House, 532 00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:50,760 Speaker 1: the answer is undeniably yes. It's not that many seats 533 00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:53,040 Speaker 1: that they need to win. Voters are word about the 534 00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:58,440 Speaker 1: economy and don't undercount the ability of Republicans to both 535 00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:03,320 Speaker 1: step on their own feet because they will absolutely, you know, 536 00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:06,760 Speaker 1: if they can, they will, And secondly, they can also 537 00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:09,920 Speaker 1: become victims of their own success. The border, for example, 538 00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:11,480 Speaker 1: is not going to be a major issue in the 539 00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:14,880 Speaker 1: next election. Why could Trump solve the problem? Same reason 540 00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:17,280 Speaker 1: I Crime is not as big of an issue in 541 00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:20,400 Speaker 1: New York today as it is in nineteen ninety three 542 00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:23,760 Speaker 1: when Giliani won because to a large degree, you solved 543 00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:25,480 Speaker 1: the problem. We don't have three thousand murders in New 544 00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:29,960 Speaker 1: York City anymore. Okay, last question for the episode. This 545 00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:32,880 Speaker 1: one comes from Patrick from Tampa Bay, Florida, a city 546 00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:34,960 Speaker 1: that I have never been to, but I would like 547 00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:38,479 Speaker 1: to visit. Patrick Wrights, you and Ann Coulter are two 548 00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:41,400 Speaker 1: of my favorite commentators, and you seem to align on 549 00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:44,280 Speaker 1: most issues, but I've noticed you different on falling birth rates. 550 00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:46,360 Speaker 1: You seem to think it's a serious problem. Well, she 551 00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:49,280 Speaker 1: thinks it's a bit overblown. I lean towards Anne I 552 00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:52,440 Speaker 1: believe that a lower birth rate may not be problematic 553 00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:55,800 Speaker 1: and actually could be beneficial, provided that births occur within stable, 554 00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:59,080 Speaker 1: self supporting, nuclear families that up hold Western values. My 555 00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:03,480 Speaker 1: primary concern is declining birth rates, and it's in balanced 556 00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:08,240 Speaker 1: age demographics with two hye proportion of retired elderly relative 557 00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:10,920 Speaker 1: to working age population. Are there strategies to mitigate the 558 00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:14,800 Speaker 1: demographic challenges while maintaining a low birth rate. I would 559 00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:17,840 Speaker 1: enjoy hearing you and discussed Hey, Patrick, so let me 560 00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:22,080 Speaker 1: answer your first question first in that yes, and I 561 00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:24,960 Speaker 1: completely disagree on this issue. I do believe the falling 562 00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:28,680 Speaker 1: birth rates in around the globe are problem. In this country, 563 00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:33,840 Speaker 1: it is not as catastrophic as it is internationally. We 564 00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:36,200 Speaker 1: are not in the worst case scenario you mentioned wanting 565 00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:38,880 Speaker 1: Western values and families with Western values to have kids. 566 00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:41,560 Speaker 1: If you look at some countries like Italy, there are 567 00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:44,000 Speaker 1: many parts of Italy that have not had a single 568 00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:46,959 Speaker 1: birth recorded in three years. Italy has lost more than 569 00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:49,520 Speaker 1: one million people since twenty eighteen, and that's with record 570 00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:52,680 Speaker 1: high immigration levels. China, which is not a Western country, 571 00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:55,800 Speaker 1: but as a major country, China, when I was growing up, 572 00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:58,640 Speaker 1: the largest country in the world is losing two million 573 00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:04,360 Speaker 1: people per year. Japan, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, Belarus, places like 574 00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:08,480 Speaker 1: the eastern East Asia all losing people every year, and 575 00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:11,600 Speaker 1: they are in the midst of a societal collapse. You know, 576 00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:14,080 Speaker 1: you look at Japan, there are more people over seventy 577 00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:17,400 Speaker 1: than under five. That country does not have a future, right, 578 00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:21,080 Speaker 1: It's that raises major concerns for their national security, major 579 00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:24,880 Speaker 1: concerns for their economy and their welfare state. And you know, 580 00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:28,479 Speaker 1: Anne thinks that the welfare state and especially social security 581 00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:31,200 Speaker 1: is a Ponzi scheme that we're never going to inherit 582 00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:34,680 Speaker 1: and you know that's her opinion. But there is no 583 00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:39,560 Speaker 1: evidence that intact Western families are going to come out prevailing, 584 00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:44,200 Speaker 1: even as nations with higher levels of religiosity like Poland. 585 00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:47,040 Speaker 1: For example, Poland has a high church attendance relative to Europe, 586 00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:51,960 Speaker 1: high belief in God, immensely low birth rates, incredibly low 587 00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:56,920 Speaker 1: birth rates. Even Muslim majority nations have slipped below replacement levels. 588 00:33:57,040 --> 00:34:00,200 Speaker 1: Even parts of Africa have slipped below replace levels. But 589 00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:03,640 Speaker 1: over the next decade you're going to see places have 590 00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:08,000 Speaker 1: extreme societal collapse throughout Europe, throughout East Asia, and then 591 00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:12,640 Speaker 1: have declining populations throughout Latin America. Africa is going to 592 00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:14,960 Speaker 1: hold on the longest, but they're going to see declines 593 00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:17,799 Speaker 1: as well. And a big question is what happens to 594 00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:21,280 Speaker 1: our own workforce when China is a net importer of workers, 595 00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:24,040 Speaker 1: when India is a net importer of workers, when all 596 00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:27,160 Speaker 1: of Europe is a net importer of workers. It's not 597 00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:30,919 Speaker 1: just people to pay taxes for the welfare, it's who 598 00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:36,719 Speaker 1: cleans the restaurants, who powers the machines, who invents the 599 00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:40,880 Speaker 1: cure for cancer. You know, maybe maybe generative AI is 600 00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:42,200 Speaker 1: going to sit there and do all those things, but 601 00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:44,719 Speaker 1: I don't. I don't. I would always bet on humanity, 602 00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:47,320 Speaker 1: And especially when you look at the concentration of where 603 00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:51,359 Speaker 1: most of the geniuses of the world who created most 604 00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:54,359 Speaker 1: of the inventions came from, it's a very small geographical 605 00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:57,879 Speaker 1: area of them and their descendants, crazy low birth rates. 606 00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:02,080 Speaker 1: It's not a big bet for humanity. And that's all 607 00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:04,440 Speaker 1: I could say about that. Having children is probably the 608 00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:06,560 Speaker 1: most important thing that people could do in this time 609 00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:11,280 Speaker 1: period to fight the greatest existential threat facing our country. 610 00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:14,040 Speaker 1: And if you're an intact nuclear family with Western values, 611 00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:16,640 Speaker 1: that makes even better. You also asked And this is 612 00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:22,120 Speaker 1: the last question about the post Desanta's political struggle in Florida. 613 00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:25,880 Speaker 1: Is Desanta's is run in twenty twenty four creating a 614 00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:30,360 Speaker 1: retaliation from the Trump campaign. I'm going to say, I 615 00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:32,560 Speaker 1: know there's still some bad blood between parts of the 616 00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:34,839 Speaker 1: Trump camp and parts of the Santa's camp. I don't 617 00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:37,920 Speaker 1: know how serious it is between the two men specifically. 618 00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:41,279 Speaker 1: I'm not privy to that information. I've never asked. I 619 00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:44,120 Speaker 1: do know that Desantas is looking at what his future 620 00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:47,800 Speaker 1: will be post governorship, and there's a lot of energy 621 00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:50,960 Speaker 1: right now from the Trump camp to support Byron Donald's. 622 00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:52,480 Speaker 1: And I will say one thing. I do know for 623 00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:55,080 Speaker 1: a fact that there's a lot of santa supporters who 624 00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:59,680 Speaker 1: don't want Byron to be governor. But as is the 625 00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:01,879 Speaker 1: case know Hi with a vek Ramaswami, there's a lot 626 00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:05,280 Speaker 1: of people who don't want a victory governor. Time is ticking. 627 00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:09,680 Speaker 1: The hour is later than people like to imagine the 628 00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:13,240 Speaker 1: availability to find a nominee who could raise the money, 629 00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:17,279 Speaker 1: who could generate the attention, who could be an alternative 630 00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:19,879 Speaker 1: to either Byron or Revec. In this case, Byron, it's 631 00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:23,720 Speaker 1: very late. It's very, very very late, so I don't 632 00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:26,719 Speaker 1: know if Desanta's has a successor in mind that is 633 00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:28,560 Speaker 1: not Byron Donald's. I don't know if he's put that 634 00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:31,640 Speaker 1: much energy or thought into it. But if there is 635 00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:35,760 Speaker 1: supposedly an anti buyering candidate and they have yet to emerge, 636 00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:39,480 Speaker 1: they've yet to show their face and the hour is 637 00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:42,960 Speaker 1: very very late for them to show up. So anyway, 638 00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:45,240 Speaker 1: thank you for listening to this all Ask Me Anything 639 00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:47,640 Speaker 1: episode of this podcast. I love getting your questions. Please 640 00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:50,920 Speaker 1: submit them to me Ryan at Numbers gamepodcast dot com. 641 00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:54,120 Speaker 1: That's Ryan at Numbers gamepodcast dot com. If you like 642 00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:57,640 Speaker 1: this podcast, please subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, 643 00:36:57,680 --> 00:37:00,279 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, and I will see you 644 00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:01,520 Speaker 1: guys on Monday